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Revealing value in green buildingshttp://portal.sliderocket.com/BSBTB/Show-me-the-green
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SHOW ME THE GREEN
Revealing value in green buildings
Vann Joines | U.S. Green Building Council
ROADMAP
Energy Savings ≠ Value Current Valuation Techniques
10yr DCF Analysis
Green Office Value Studies Fuerst | Pogue | Kok
How to Convince Lenders Standardization & Data
How to Convince Owners Tenants, Financing, Data
Opportunities? Retrofits
ENERGY SAVINGS = INCREASED VALUE?
Green Buildings: LEED and Energy Star Savings in Utilities = More Valuable Buildings BUT many Owners do not pay the Energy Bills
THE 7 TRIBES OF REAL ESTATE
Single Family Homes 1 to 4 Units
Small C& I Mom and Pop / Owner-User May not have an income
approach Typically under $2MM
Medium C & I Larger Owner-User Part Owner – User Local Investor $2MM to $10MM
Large C & I Multi Tenant Leased
Investment Over $10MM Owner Individual to REIT
Multi-Family Medium Large Investment
Grade Apts Condos These are where a new
approach needs to be taken Specialty
Gas Station Fast Food Hotel/Motel Theatre Data Center
MUSH Municipality University Schools Hospitals
(Finlay, “The Retrofit Triangle.” 2011)
THE TEAM TO CONVINCE
Everyone needs to agree in Increased Value Not just a snapshot, but long-term Tricky Problem
(Finlay, “The Retrofit Triangle.” 2011)
HOW IS MARKET VALUE DETERMINED?
Income / Sales Comps / Cost MF,C&I: 10 Year Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
CASH FLOWS
Now Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
✚
Discounted % depending on Risk
WHERE IS GREEN VALUE?
INCOME Higher Market Rent
Assumption
Vacancy Absorption Time Stabilized Vacancy Tenant Retention or
rollover percentage Lag Vacancy Tenant Improvements
Expenses Utilities Repairs and Maintenance Management Marketing Promotions Insurance Property taxes (PACE)
RISK Discount Rate Terminal Cap Rate
(Finlay, “The Green 14.” 2011)
INCOME: US OFFICE STUDIES HIGHER RENTS – (FUERST AND MCALLISER)
2008 +4% Energy Star +5% LEED
2009 +6% Energy Star +6% LEED
ANNUAL INCOME HIGHER RENTS – (POGUE, CBRE 2011)
ANNUAL INCOME HIGHER OCCUPANCY – (POGUE, 2011)
Survey Set +3.16%
LEED +3.14%
ANNUAL INCOME HIGHER RENTS – YES! EKQ 2010
Market Rents +3.3% for Energy Star +5.2% for LEED
Occupancy Rate +11%
Effective Rents +9% for LEED +7% Rated
(Eichholtz, Kok, Quigley, “Doing Well by Doing Good?” 2010)
RISK + INCOME INCREASED VALUE AT SALE – YES!
Fuerst and McAllister +25% Energy Star
+26% LEED(2008) +31% Energy Star,
+35% LEED (2009)
Eichholtz, Kok, Quigley +15.8% to 16.5%
Certified Bldgs
10% decrease in energy use leads to 1% increase in value over certification level increase
$1 of Energy Savings correlates to +$0.95/sf Rental rates +$13/sf Transaction prices 4.9% Premium in Market Capitalization
(http://www.nilskok.com/ Prezi Slide: accessed March 15, 2012)
Effect Varies by Market Premium for Green Retrofits is Larger in smaller markets
(EQK “Doing well by doing good” 2010)
Opportunity for NOLA Investors
SURPRISING FINDING ENERGY SAVING ~ VALUE
WHO & HOW TO CONVINCE?
Data and Standardization
Different Approach for each group
LENDERS OWNERS
FOR LENDERS STANDARDIZATION COVERS RISK
ASTM Building Energy Performance Assessment
Used to gauge a building’s current energy use
USPAP changes Increased Cash Flow, Decreased Expenses, and
Increased Valuation at Reversion DOE: Database | Appraisal Foundation: Techniques
FOR LENDERS DOE & AF SEE VALUE
"If better performing buildings have a higher value, it will
help enable the upfront investment for energy efficiency upgrades."
–Steven Chu, Sec. of Energy
(DOE Press Release, June 13, 2011 http://www.eere.energy.gov/pdfs doe_taf_mou_signed_6-10.pdf )
LENDERS OR OWNERS? APPRAISERS RESPOND TO THE MARKET
“The theory that the problem lies in the appraisal is mostly real, but the first crisis of confidence is in the property owners themselves”- James Finlay
COULD THE OWNERS BE THE PROBLEM?
OWNERS: TENANTS BIG DESIRABLE TENANTS Big Companies = Reduced Risk 2010 CBRE Survey of Office Tenants
Big Companies care more about green!
OWNERS: DATA COSTAR WORKING TO STANDARDIZE Co-STAR
Most Comprehensive Database of Real Estate Information
De-couple buildings from land 5 star building is a 5 star building 5 star property is a five star property
Compare Green Bldgs to Green Bldgs
OWNERS: DATA UNPACK THE PLAQUE
Green Building Information Gateway Allows users to see LEED score on
each property Compare LEED buildings between
markets Compare one LEED market to
another
Real Time Performance of LEED Bldgs
(Pyke, “Building the Economic and Social Case for Sustainable Development Practices.” 2011)
OWNERS: DATA CMP: FINANCIAL VALUE INDEX
Index to Score a building’s attributes that will Increase Long Term Financial Value Decrease Risk Profile
Utilizing 3rd Party Verification LEED certification data Location based data
Like a Green FICA Score for Buildings Range from 0 to 100 Great for owners, lenders, equity investors, &
securities industry (Winters & Katz, 2011)
OPPORTUNITIES? EXISTING BUILDING UPGRADES
EBOM Outpacing NC
Focus of LEED EB: Large “Bang for your $”
(EQK 2011)
OPPORTUNITIES? LEED EBOM HIGHER RENTS!
Higher Rents +7% Higher Effective Rents +9%
(EKQ, “The Economics of Green Retrofits.” 2011)
Median Cost: $438,957!
OPPORTUNITIES? NEW FINANCING AVAILABLE
Deutsche Bank $150MM in NY Building Retrofit Program
Green Leases – NRDC and PlanNYC 7 World Trade
Silverstien Properties and WilmerHale 210,000 SF 4 floors
PACE for Commercial Buildings Miami area and Sacramento Requires multiple partners
Ygrene Energy Fund Barclays Capital Lockheed Martin Energi Insurance Co Hannover Re
OPPORTUNITIES? NEED BETTER MANAGEMENT CONTRACTS
Energy Savings Performance Contracts Now only for the Feds Federal Agency and Energy Service Company
Audit-Program-ESCO guarantees savings – Gaurantee covers the loan over a period of time
CBRE wants to set the goal of taking a performing building to Net Zero only through operations
Advanced Energy in Raleigh, NC Guarantee Energy Use post Retrofit! http://www.advancedenergy.org/
OPPORTUNITIES? LOUISIANA #4 ENERGY EXPENSES -10% Energy Use = +1% Value
Higher in Smaller Markets
(www.energy.gov)
CONCLUSIONS Studies Show
Higher Rents Less Vacancy Less Risk Higher Reversions
Opportunities in Retrofits Higher Value = More Green Buildings
(Finlay, “The Retrofit Triangle.” 2011)
THANK YOU & QUESTIONS?
Vann Joines | U.S. Green Building Council