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General considerations
Time scale and level of aggregation (number of people, geographic space)
Degree of change
Where is it happening?
In function of what is it happening?
Example: Energy use and number of people per family
Naïve view
Decrease of family size: an important attribute of development
Informed view
Conclusions
Time scaleEmployment in the three sectors (Switzerland)
Services
Industry & trade
Agriculture1940 2020
Services
Level of aggregation
Country:
Household:
time
time time time
ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)
? ? ?
E
E E E
Traditional fuel
Modern fuel
Degree of change
Country:
Household:
time
time time time
ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)
? ? ?
E
E E E
Traditional fuel
Modern fuel
Clearly a transformation: Depict what is coming to an end
ECountry = EHouseholds (transitions taking place over the years)
time
E
Traditional fuel
Modern fuelHousehold:
Level of aggregation
Person
Household
Village/district …. occupational group …. decile …
or group with specific characterisation
Country
Globe
The search for groups
Two years of cluster analysis with household survey data (sample of 30'000 to120'000 HH) with about 200 consumption items.
We were looking for “stable” groups like: Tribes people Rural unemployed and landless peasants Traditional merchants and craftsmen Peasants with small farms Big farmers The urban poor Blue-collar employees of western-style firms and factories Servants The new middle class The upper class
More than 60
watt/capita
Two or more warm meals, hot water, lighting, some space heating and – for groups with electri-city, possibly space cooling, plus other electric appliances. Possibly scooter, car.
30-60
watt/capita
Two warm meals per day ( perhaps “farmers portions”), hot water and light. Perhaps small electric appliances (TV, tele-phone, fridge) for groups with electrici-ty. Possibly scooter.
15-30
watt/capita
One to two warm meals per day (for farmers and manual labourers below basic need), a few kerosene lamps or one electric bulb, some hot water
Less than 15
watt/capita
Less than one warm meal per day, a kerosene lamp, possibly a little hot water
LPG, Electricity
and possibly
others
Electricity,
biomass and/or
Kerosene
Biomass and
Kerosene
Useful energy
Examples of energy services, which may
be available in the given intervals
of useful energy
Access
Examples of type of information analyzed:
Nos of people
% of people
% Literate
% Rural
% with Tap water
Avg p.c land holding
Avg p.c. expenditure
The Energy Access-Consumption Matrix
Energy Poverty and Energy Distribution
Social development
Pac
hau
ri, S
., M
uelle
r, A
., K
emm
ler,
A.
and
Spr
eng,
D.
(20
04)
On
Mea
surin
g E
ner
gy P
over
ty in
Ind
ian
Hou
seho
lds
Wor
ld D
eve
lopm
ent
32
(12)
208
3-2
104
Who is deciding?
Electrification: distinct decisions In states, districts and villages by the utilities But also of the households
Switch to clean cooking fuels Initially some decisions required in the supply chain But mainly a decision for the households
In function of what are decisions taken?
Electrification: distinct decisions In states, districts and villages by the utilities But also of the households
- More a question of whether to step out of the poverty trap and join the “western” technological world or not rather than an economic question
Switch to clean cooking fuels Initially some decisions required in the supply chain But mainly a decision for the households
- Both an economic question and
- A question of attitude of household heads towards women
Energy as a function of what – on which level of aggregation?
A given function on one level will not necessarily
translate into the same function at a different
level of aggregation
Indicators relevant to some decisions may not
be relevant to other decisions
What follows is an example of this: energy use
as a function of household size
The naïve, bottom-up view Smaller households higher per capita energy use – economies of scale
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 >=15
Household size
Per
cap
ita
ener
gy
as a
mu
ltip
le o
f th
at f
or
an a
vg
HH
siz
e=5
Source: Indian Household Consumer Surveys, NSSO, GoI, various years
Drivers of Change in Family Size
Demographic Transition
Lower fertility – fewer births
Lower mortality – longer lives
Health Transition
Fewer communi-cable diseases, more non-communicable
Economic growth Urbanization
Access to better health services
Culture and traditions
Family relations formation and
dissolution
Hygiene and cleanlinessGender roles
Education
Multiplicative relationship between driving forces
Family size
Differences in Family Size – A Broader ViewImplications for energy and development –
What is the composition and characteristic of larger households?
Source: O’Neill & S.Chen 2002
Evidence from the USA:
• Larger house-holds are poorer per capita
• Larger house-holds are com-posed of more children
• Larger house-holds tend to have members in the middle age group