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Volume 56 No 1/2 - 2012

World Merchant Fleet

World Bulk Carrier MarketWorld Tanker Market

World Container and General Cargo ShippingWorld Merchant Fleet by Ownership PatternsWorld Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ISL Cruise Fleet RegisterWorld Shipbuilding and ShipbuildersMajor Shipping NationsWorld Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic

© ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, Bremen, 2012

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ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)Volume 56 - 2012

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Comment - World merchant fleet

SSMR January/February 2012

www.isl.org

This “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 1/2 2012. The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus” and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review). For more information compare attached “contents”

If you are interested in the complete publication covering all details (tables & figures), please contact our subscription department [email protected] or you can order it via our webshop www.isl.org/shop

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the editors. ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the “Short Comment”) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences.

Shipping Statistics and Market Review

Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

World Merchant Fleet

ISL Comment ...........................................................

ISL InfoLine Special .................................................

ISL Statistical Tables ................................................

Market Review

Economic Indicators .................................................

World Merchant Fleet ..................................................

Freight and Charter Market .......................................

Shipping Prices and Costs .........................................

World Shipbuilding ...................................................

World Port Traffic .....................................................

9

13

18

51

54

57

69

70

72

Volume 56 (2012)

ISSN 0947 - 0220

published 9 times per year

Analytical Focus

(double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June. and Sept./Oct.)

No 1/2 - 2012

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Contents – Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org

SSMR January/February 2012 3

Page

ISL Comment – World merchant fleet

(1) WORLD TONNAGE SUPPLY

1.1 Ship Type Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ............................................................ 5 1.2 Age and Size Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ........................................................ 6 1.3 Ownership Patterns of the World Merchant Fleet ......................................................... 7

(2) MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

2.1 World Seaborne Trade ............................................................................................ 8 2.2 Rates and Prices .................................................................................................... 9

(3) FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY

3.1 Tankers ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Bulk Carriers ......................................................................................................... 10 3.3 General Cargo and Container Ships ......................................................................... 10

(4) WORLD SHIPBUILDING - FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY

4.1 Total Order Book by Ship Type ................................................................................ 11 4.2 Outlook – impact of the crisis .................................................................................. 12

SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT

Tab. 1 World Merchant Fleet’s Reductions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............................ 5 Tab. 2 World Merchant Fleet's Newbuilding Additions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............. 5 Tab. 3 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type 2007 and 2011 ..................................................... 6 Tab. 4 Largest Ships by Ship type per Ship Type Category 2011 ............................................. 7 Tab. 5 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type and National and Foreign Flag 2008, 2011 and 2012 ... 7 Tab. 6 Development of Major Open Registry Flags 2008-2012 ................................................ 7 Tab. 7 Newbuilding Additions of the Top 5 Countries of Domicile by National and Foreign Flag 2011 8 Tab. 8 Total World Merchant Fleet (Registered and Controlled) by Region 2012 ........................ 8 Tab. 9 Ship Type Contribution for Selected OECD Countries (Controlled Fleet) 2012 .................. 8 Tab. 10 Controlled Fleets of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 ............................................... 9 Tab. 11 End-year Rate Level for Benchmark Tanker Trades 12/2009-12/2011 ............................ 10 Tab. 12 Total Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Country of Build 2012 .................................... 11 Tab. 13 New Orders by Major Ship Types during 2007 – 2011 ................................................. 11 Tab. 14 Total Order Book by Major Ship Types 2008-2012 ...................................................... 12 Tab. 15 Major Shipbuilding Countries – Order Book and cgt per Cent-Shares of Total Order Book ..... 12

FIGURES - COMMENT

Fig. 1 World Merchant Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 2000–2012 ...................................... 5 Fig. 2 World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 2000-2012 .................................................. 5 Fig. 3 World Merchant Fleet – Age Structure by Major Ship Types 2012 .................................. 6 Fig. 4 World Merchant Fleet – Ship Size Development of Selected Ship Types 1991-2012 .......... 6 Fig. 5 Total World Merchant Fleet by National and Foreign Registries 20008-2012 .................... 7 Fig. 6 Country Groups Fleet’s Share on Ship Types of the World Merchant Fleet 2012 ............... 8 Fig. 7 Controlled Fleet Development of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 .............................. 8 Fig. 8 Monthly Development of Baltic Indices 2008-2011 ...................................................... 9 Fig. 9 Monthly HARPEX Container Charter Rate Index up to December 20010 .......................... 9 Fig. 10 Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Merchant Fleets by Type 2000-2012 ......... 10 Fig. 11 Tanker Fleet - Development of New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ................. 10 Fig. 12 Bulk fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ........................................ 10 Fig. 13 General Cargo Fleet – New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, 2006-2011, quarterly ............. 10 Fig. 14 Container Ships - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011, quarterly ................. 11 Fig. 15 World Order Book Quarterly Development by Major Ship Types 2006-2011 .................... 11 Fig. 16 Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1st, 2012 ............ 12

ISL InfoLine Special – World merchant fleet

ISL Statistical Tables– World merchant fleet

(1) WORLD MERCHANT FLEET

1.1 Keyfigures as of January 1st, 2012 ............................................................................ 16 1.2 Ranking by Flag as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 ...................................................... 17 1.3 By Major Flags and Ship Type as of January 1st, 2012 .............................................. 20 1.4 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type 2012 ..... 22 1.5 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Country Groups/Ship Type 2012 23 1.6 Fleet Development by Ship Type 2008, 2010-2012 ..................................................... 24 1.7 By Division of Age and Ship Type as of January 1st, 2012 ............................................. 27 1.8 By Size Class and Ship Type as of January 1st, 2012 ................................................... 28 1.9 By Summer Draught and Ship Type as of January 1st, 2012 – No of Ships ...................... 30 1.10 By Country of Domicile as of January 1st, 2012 ........................................................... 31 1.11 Top Ten Countries of Domicile by Major Ship Types as of January 1st, 2008, 2011 and 2012 32

13

18-43

5-16

4 SSMR January/February 2012

ISL Statistical Tables– World merchant fleet (continued)

(2) BROKEN-UP MERCHANT SHIPS (YEARLY ANALYSIS)

2.1 Broken-up Ships by Type 2001 - 2011 ...................................................................... 33 2.2 Average Age of Broken-up Ships by Type 2001-2011 .................................................. 33 2.3 Broken-up Ships by Major Flags and Type January – December 2011 ......................... 34 2.4 Broken-up ships by Country Groups of Registration and Type January – December 2011 .. 34 2.5 Broken-up ships by Year of Build and Ship Type January – December 2011 .................... 35 2.6 Broken-up ships by Size Class and Type January – December 2011 ............................... 35

(3) DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD SEABORNE TRADE

3.1 Seaborne Trade Volume in Tonnes 1990-2011 ........................................................... 36

(4) WORLD ORDER BOOK - FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY

4.1 Ships on Order by Type as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 ........................................... 37 4.2 Ships on Order by Major Types and Country of Build as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 .... 37 4.3 Ships on Order by Type and Major Shipyards as of January 1st, 2012 ............................ 38 4.4 Ships on Order by Ship Type and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .................. 38 4.5 Ships on Order by Country of Build and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .......... 39 4.6 Ships on Order by Type and DWT-Size Class as of January 1st, 2012 ............................. 39 4.7 Additions to Order Book by Ship Type and Major Countries of Build 2008–2011 ............... 40

FIGURES – STATISTICAL TABLES

Fig. 1 Tankers and Dry Cargo Ships Broken-up 1990 - 2011 ................................................. 33 Fig. 2 Cargo Carried by World Fleet 1990 - 2011 ................................................................. 37 Fig. 4 Total World Order Book by Major ship types 2001-2012 .............................................. 38

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18-43


SSMR January/February 2012

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5

1 FLEET DEVELOPMENT 2011

Global shipping experienced a turbulent year due to a combination of falling freight rates, ship oversupply and tighter bank lending. As regards charter and freight rates, the year 2011 was rather mixed. It started well for ship owners with freight rates similar to those at the end of 2010. In container shipping, rates even increased during the first half, but almost all markets were on a downward trend towards the end of 2011. The year also brought a lot of change to the world merchant fleet. Never in the past had so much capacity been added to the fleet within one year. At the same time, ship breakers were busier than during the crisis year 2009. Fleet

The world merchant fleet continues to expand rapidly. After 146 million dwt of new capacity added in 2010, at least 2,775 newbuildings with a combined tonnage of 164 million dwt were delivered in 2011, resulting in an 8.4 per cent growth of the world merchant fleet. The capacity of ships delivered in 2011 was 12.2 per cent higher than in the already exceptional year 2010. Bulk carriers contributed nearly two thirds to the tonnage delivered in 2011. At the beginning of 2012, the total world merchant fleet comprised 48,197 ships with 1.46 billion dwt and 15.3 million TEU. With a plus of 14.7 per cent, the dry bulk sector again witnessed the largest year-on-year increase (after 17 per cent one year earlier). The fully cellular container fleet grew by 8.7 per cent (TEU). Both fleets have almost doubled since 2005. Newbuildings

About 110 million dwt were reported as new orders during 2011. The volume of orders placed has been falling since 2007. With a volume of 344 million dwt at the start of 2012, the world order book was 42% smaller than in 2008. During 2011 more than 700 merchant vessel orders were cancelled, i.e. removed from the order book. Though the order book has shrunk in all segments, all sectors will see large volumes of new tonnage in the short term. At the beginning of 2012, the total order book still represents around 24 per cent of existing fleet capacity. Especially in the bulk carrier segment we see an oversized order book (32 per cent of the existing fleet). With view to other ship types, these shares stood at 26 per cent for container ships, 15 per cent for tankers and 13 per cent for general cargo vessels. In 2011, Chinese, Korean and Japanese yards accounted for close to 95% of world deliveries, Chinese shipbuilders delivering over 1,000 vessels for the second year in a row – the largest ever by one nation in a single year. Demolition market

Since the beginning of the economic crisis, ship breaking experienced a revival. After 33 million dwt in 2009 and 29 million dwt in 2010, the volume of the reported broken-up tonnage reached a peak with nearly 41 million dwt in 2011. It was the third highest demolition level ever (1,516 merchant vessels). Compared to 2010, bulk carrier

Fig. 1: World merchant fleet – Annual tonnage changes 1999 –2012 (dwt- per cent)

Fig. 2: World tonnage additions and reductions 1998-2011 (in dwt)

Fig. 3: World merchant fleet – Age structure by major ship types

as of January 1st, 2012 (No. of ships per-cent share)

Tab. 1: World merchant fleet by ship type as of January 1st, 2008

and 2012

Sources If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and order book information is “ISL based on HIS Fairplay”, please quote accordingly. If not indicated otherwise, merchant fleet data refer to ships of 300 gt and over.

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1.0 1.52.2 2.7

2.12.9

5.76.4

6.9 6.9 6.8 7.1

9.38.4

dwt %

-cha

nge

0

20

40

6080

100

120140

160

180

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mill

dw

t

Additions Reductions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Tankers Bulk carriers

Container ships

General cargo

Passenger ships

%-s

hare

(No.

of s

hips

)

up to 1991 1992- 2001 2002-2006 2007-2011

No of2012 2008 2012 ships dwt TEU 2008 2012

Tankers 547.4 40.7 37.4 3.2 5.7 ... 16.7 14.5- Oil tankers 496.7 37.1 34.0 4.1 5.6 ... 16.5 14.0- Chemical tankers 6.3 1.0 0.4 -4.0 -9.4 ... 19.2 20.0- Liquid gas tankers 44.5 2.7 3.0 4.4 10.2 ... 15.8 14.2Bulk/OBO carriers 605.8 36.0 41.4 7.1 11.9 -5.3 16.0 12.4- Bulk carriers 601.9 35.4 41.2 7.2 12.0 -4.5 15.9 12.3- OBO carriers 3.9 0.6 0.3 -6.1 -2.5 ... 21.8 23.7Container ships 196.9 12.7 13.5 4.1 8.0 9.2 10.6 10.4General cargo ships 105.3 9.9 7.2 -1.2 0.6 1.4 22.4 21.2- Single-deck ships 60.6 4.8 4.1 0.6 4.2 6.4 20.9 19.6- Multi-deck ships 15.7 2.5 1.1 -7.9 -10.2 -7.5 28.8 30.0- Reefer ships 5.7 0.7 0.4 -3.5 -3.9 0.0 22.8 24.7- Special ships 17.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 5.2 1.9 19.0 16.3- RoRo cargo ships 6.1 0.7 0.4 0.9 -2.0 -5.0 19.4 18.0

6.4 0.6 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -5.5 23.0 22.9- Pure passenger ships 2.1 0.2 0.1 -3.0 0.1 -45.4 21.3 21.5- Other passenger ships 4.3 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.2 -3.9 23.9 23.8Total 1461.8 100.0 100.0 2.0 7.9 7.9 18.9 16.7

Average age (years)

Passenger ships

Ship type

dwt-% share of

total

Av. yearly growth 2008-2012 (%)mill

dwt



www.isl.org

demolition has increased fourfold to 24.4 million dwt. Bulk carriers represented 60 per cent of the total broken-up tonnage in 2011.

1.1 Size development The average size of bulk carriers, container ships, cruise vessels and – to a lesser extent – tankers has been increasing steadily during the last few years (see Figure 4). A total of 105 VLCC tankers on order range in the size class above 300,000 dwt. About one third of all tankers on order are in size classes above 80,000 dwt against 19 per cent in the current fleet. The focus of the order activity in the bulk carrier segment has been on Capesize vessels (>85.000 dwt). The current order book includes 516 bulk carriers of 85,000 dwt and above, the average size of all bulk carriers on order is 82,000 dwt against 64,000 dwt in the active fleet. The average size of container ships has more than doubled in 20 years. The average size increased from 1,250 TEU (1990) to 3,064 TEU at the beginning of 2012. In the current order book, cellular container ships have an average size of 6,900 TEU. At the start of 2012, 111 container ships in service had capacities of 10,000 TEU and above against 165 container ships on order in this size class. Meanwhile, Maersk Line has ordered 20 container ships in a new size class, each able to transport 18,000 TEU. Cruise vessels also tend to larger sizes. The average size for cruise vessels on order is 100,000 gt. There are now 47 ships in the world cruise fleet larger than 100,000 gt with an average capacity of 3,700 berths.

1.2 Ownership patterns of the world merchant fleet World merchant fleet by flag

The flag-related ownership analysis shows the increasing concentration on open registry flags. At the beginning of 2012, 940 million dwt equal to 70 per cent of the total merchant fleet tonnage were registered under foreign flags – mainly open registry flags. Tonnage registered under the top ten open registry flags totalled 809 million dwt. The leading open registry flag is Panama with 320 million dwt (21.9 per cent of the world tonnage), followed by Liberia with 183 million dwt (12.5 per cent) and the Marshall Islands with 116 million dwt (7.9 per cent).

World merchant fleet by country of domicile of owner

The country-by-country analysis underlines that the world shipping scene is controlled by a few shipping countries. At the beginning of 2012, about 70 per cent of the total deadweight tonnage of the world merchant fleet was controlled by only ten countries (excl. tonnage for ships of which the parent company is unknown). Greece is still the leading shipping nation in terms of deadweight tonnage with a controlled tonnage of 217 million dwt (16.4 per cent) followed by Japan with 210 million dwt (15.8 per cent) and Germany with 125 million dwt (9.5 per cent). Greek ship owners increased their tonnage on average by 5.4 per cent per year in the period 2008-2012. Within the top shipping nations, the highest

Fig. 4: World merchant fleet – Ship size development of selected ship types as of January 1st, 1990 – 2012 (average dwt)

Fig. 5: Total world merchant fleet by national and foreign registries

as of January 1st, 1995 – 2012 (dwt index 1995 = 100)

Fig. 6: Country groups controlled fleet’s share on ship types of the

world merchant fleet as of January 1st, 2012 (dwt-%-share)

Fig. 7: Controlled fleet development of major shipping nations as

of January 1st, 2008-2012

Additions/reductions: Additions (newbuildings) and reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of the respective year.

Single shipping markets: In-depth analyses will be presented in the next SSMR issues, namely in No 2 (Tanker fleet), No 3 (Bulk fleet), No 5/6 (General cargo and container shipping) and No 7 (Passenger/Cruise fleet) Explanatory note “Country of domicile” indicating where the controlling interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This information is only available for merchant ships of 1,000 gt and over. As of January 1st, 2012, the country of domicile information was attributable to 33,373 merchant ships with a total tonnage of 1.33 billion dwt, whereas for 5,751 ships with 126.0 mill dwt this information was unknown.

2000025000300003500040000450005000055000600006500070000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

ship

siz

e (a

v. d

wt)

Oil tankers Bulk carriers Container ships

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

National flag Foreign flag

217.1 209.8

125.5 115.6

54.5

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5

mill

dw

t

average annual dwt growth in %

Germany China, PR of

Korea, Rep.of

JapanGreece



www.isl.org

tonnage growth in this period was reached by Korea (10.4per cent), the UK (11.3 per cent) and China (8.6 per cent).

2 MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IN 2010/2011

2.1 World seaborne trade From a total of 8.8 billion tonnes of seaborne trade in 2011, about 35.0 per cent are attributable to liquid bulks. Due to the low growth of global oil trade compared with other commodities and due to increasing pipeline transport volumes, this share decreased from 40 per cent in 1990 to the current value. As the growing supply of dry bulk tonnage suggests, the share of major dry bulk volumes still increases. In 2011, 28.0 per cent of the total seaborne trade were attributable to iron ore, coal and grain. According to Clarkson Research, containerised cargo had a share of 17 per cent in total seaborne trade in 2011. During the course of 2011, especially the increase of container trade (+9.7 per cent), Bauxite (+8.9 per cent) and the group of minor bulks (+ 4.9 per cent), which includes the so-called noble earths, reveal the economic recovery. Crude oil and products shipments increased by 2.4 per cent, and 3.0 per cent respectively between 2010 and 2011. During the same period, LNG-transport by sea increased by only 1.3 per cent (see also table 3.1 Seaborne Trade on page 36).

2.2 Rates and prices Ship owners nowadays have to pay the price for the vast ordering activities of the past five years. Deliveries to the active fleet with a combined capacity of 165 million dwt have set rates under an enormous pressure (see table 1.1 on page 16). As a consequence, ship builders will probably not be able to sustain the relatively stable prices they were earning so far. In this regard the tendency to order bigger vessels widens the gap between supply and demand not only in the bulk and container market, but also in the tanker market (see Table 4 above). Tanker market

Compared to bulk and container markets, the tanker sector was particularly struck by the ongoing conflicts in Northern Africa in 2011. Moreover, rates weakened significantly primarily due to an oversupply of vessels relative to demand. Additionally, the release of some 60 million barrels of crude oil from several governmental stockpiles and some oilfield outages impeded the tanker demand during the last twelve month. All in all, it can be stated that the bigger the tanker, the sharper the dip of the charter rates. Since the ridge of the rate levels in early 2010, tanker spot World Scales (WS) on the Arabian Gulf to Europe trade, for example, are nearly 20 per cent lower on average than in 2010. The Average WS for VLCC tankers was around 38 versus WS 49.2 in 2010, with peaks during winter times. Consequently, the main market for oil shipments is still weak. Bulk carrier market

It is obvious that the bulk sector still has difficulties to absorb the armada of new ships ordered in the pre-crisis era. This sets the rate development under high pressure.

Fig. 8: Share of selected commodity groups on world seaborne trade in 2011 and 1990 (% of total volume)

Fig. 9: Monthly development of Baltic indices 2007-2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Baltic Exchange

Fig. 10: Time charter rates for tankers 2007 - 2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Fearnleys Weekly

Fig. 11: Monthly HARPEX Container charter rate index up to

December 2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Harper Petersen & Co., Hamburg

Fig. 12: Share of the ordered tonnage on the existing merchant fleets by type as of January 1st, 2007-2012 (dwt-%)

Major dry bulks28%

Minor bulks11%Container

17%

Liquid bulk35%

Others9%

2011

Major dry bulks23%

Minor bulks16%Container

6%

Liquid bulk40%

Others15%

1990

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Panmax Index

Baltic Capesize Index

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1000

US

$/da

y

VLCC (modern)

SUEZMAX (modern)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Jan. 07 Jul Jan. 08 Jul Jan. 09 Jul Jan. 10 Jul Jan. 11 Jul Jan. 12

HA

RPE

X In

dex

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Tanker Bulk carrier Container General Cargo

40.4

24.7

42.1

12.5

28.9

60.4

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Consequently, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), during 2010 on the way up, fell to ranges of around 1400, not far away from the low point at the end of 2008, but picked up 40 per cent up to 1900 points at the turn of the year. This upswing was mostly limited to the Capesize class while the Panamax sector stagnated. On the demand side, heavy rain and floods in Australia severely disrupted coal and iron ore trade in early 2011. Weather conditions are again expected to hit the dry bulk trades in 2012. As a result of La Nina, the US Gulf is expected to experience significant drought in first quarter 2012, affecting grain exports. Container charter rates

Until mid-2011, the charter rates have benefited from the market recovery. In the second half the rates have fallen back to the level of mid-2009. The large number of additions to the fleet in the upper size segment has accelerated the ‘cascade effect’, creating pressure on rates in all size segments and crowding out smaller units. At the same time, the slowdown of growth in many industrialised countries led to a deceleration of demand for capacity. At the end of 2011, the downward trend in charter rates of recent months continued. An annual comparison shows that the low rates now varied between one and two thirds of the previous year’s figures. Howe Robinson published a level of around 476 points for the weighted container index (HRCI) at the end of December 2011, a decrease of 30.7 per cent compared to December 2010. Demolition and newbuilding prices

As stated above, it is not unlikely that newbuilding prices may weaken as yards have to fill their order books in times of observant markets. At the turn of the year, the values for all ship types move marginally down. Bulk carrier newbuilding prices, especially for larger vessels, were around 2 per cent lower than at the end of 2010, of course a reaction of the high amount of newbuildings. Correspondingly the level of newbuilding prices was relatively low. According to industry sources, namely Fearnleys and Platou, the second hand values for tankers were relatively low in the crude sector and more or less stable regarding the products tankers.

3 FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY The economic recovery since 2010 also revives global shipbuilding. At least 2,042 merchant vessels with nearly 39 million cgt were reported as new orders during 2011. However – due to many deliveries and removals – the order book for merchant ships has decreased in all segments. The global order book at the start of 2012 comprised 5,301 ships with 108 million cgt, 16.9 per cent less than a year ago and 41.3 per cent less than five years ago.

3.1 Tankers During 2011 tanker deliveries consisted of 640 units with 44.4 million dwt, thereof 531 oil tankers and 74 liquid gas tankers. In the same period 433 new orders with 18.1 million dwt were placed, 220 units were removed from the order book, and 249 units with 9.0 million dwt were reported to be broken up. At the beginning of 2012, 1,138

Fig. 13: Tanker fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage 2005 – 2011 (in dwt)

Fig. 14: Bulk fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage 2005 – 2011 (in dwt)

Fig. 15: General cargo fleet – quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage, 2005 – 2011 (mill dwt)

Fig. 16: Container ships - quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage 2005 – 2011 (mill dwt)

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tankers with 25.2 million cgt (83 million dwt) were on order. The total tanker order book corresponded to 15 per cent of the total tanker fleet, compared with 24 per cent one year earlier. More than half of this tonnage volume is scheduled until end of 2012.

3.2 Bulk carriers At the start of 2012, we still see a huge oversupply of vessels in the bulk carrier segment. The future supply/demand balance in the bulk market is determined by a surprisingly high contracting of newbuildings: 941 new orders totalling 16.9 million cgt (68 million dwt) were ordered. At the same time, 431 bulk carriers with 24 million dwt were reported as demolitions and more than 320 vessels were removed from the order book during 2011. At the beginning of 2012, the order book for bulk carriers comprised 2,397 carriers with 45.6 million cgt (195 million dwt). This would increase the bulk carrier fleet by almost one third in the years to come.

3.3 Container ships and General cargo vessels In 2011, a total of 253 container ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEU were ordered worldwide, up from 0.7 million TEU one year earlier. At the beginning of 2012 the order book for container ships comprised 631 ships with 23.3 million cgt (4.4 mill TEU). The container ship order book at the beginning of 2012 represented a TEU ratio of 28.5 per cent in relation to the existing container fleet. Based on the current order book the container fleet capacity will increase by 10.2 per cent in 2012 and about 9 per cent in 2013 – if ships are delivered as planned. A noticeable 165 container ships on order had capacities of 10,000 TEU and above, of which 134 ships with more than 12,000 TEU. New orders for general cargo ships (incl. various ship types such as ro-ro cargo ships, car carriers or heavy-lift vessels) amounted to 345 vessels with 2.7 million cgt (3.4 million dwt) in 2011, a decrease of 26.5 per cent compared with 2010. The order book as of January 1st, 2012 comprised 1,004 general cargo ships with 10.2 million cgt and 13.7 million dwt, respectively. The general cargo ship order book at the beginning of 2012 represented a dwt ratio of 13.0 per cent in relation to the existing general cargo fleet.

3.4 Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo vessels During 2011, 105 passenger and ro-ro cargo/passenger ships (1.3 million cgt) left the order book after completion, while 70 new orders with 1.0 million cgt were reported. As of January 1st, 2012, the total order book was composed of 24 cruise vessels with 2.7 million cgt, 36 passenger ships (0.02 mill cgt) and 71 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships with 0.7 million cgt. It includes 16 cruise vessels with capacities of 100,000 gt and over. Total passenger tonnage under construction now represents 9.2 per cent of the fleet in service (cgt), down from 10.2 per cent one year earlier.

Fig. 17: World order book - quarterly development by major ship types 2007 - 2012 (mill cgt)

Tab. 2: Total order book by major ship types as of

January 1st, 2008, 2011 and 2012

Fig. 18: Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1st, 2012 (cgt - %)

Guide to relevant market information: Shipping & Shipbuilding Market Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:

www.brs-paris.com Simpson Spence & Young: SSY World Oil-Tanker Trend:

www.ssyonline.com Clarkson: Container Intelligence Monthly, Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook:

www.clarksons.co.uk Statistical details “ World Shipbuilding” Ships on order by type p. 45 By major types and country of build p. 45 By type and major shipyards p. 46 By country of build and delivery schedule p. 47 By ship type and delivery schedule p. 47

Explanatory note The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is necessary to build a given ship.

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Tankers 2935 63.7 1543 33.1 1138 25.2 -23.6Bulk carriers 2790 54.0 2944 57.6 2397 45.6 -20.8Container ships 1518 41.5 606 21.1 631 23.3 10.7General cargo ships 1421 17.5 1295 14.4 1004 10.3 -29.0Passenger ships 223 7.4 137 3.9 131 3.6 -6.8Total 8887 184.0 6525 130.0 5301 108.0 -16.9

Ship type2008 20122011

CESA4.1%

China, PR of38.2%

Kora, Rep. of32.5%

Japan15.5%

Others9.8%

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