2015 Homicide PredictionFor

Saint Louis City

Shashin AmatyaYi GaoLauren Reuther

INFSYS-6833Group B

Homicide

Agenda• Our Objectives• Problems• Background• Our Approach• Analysis• Prediction• Improving Prediction• Recommendation

Homicide

• Accurately predict homicide in St. Louis City

• Help effectively allocate required resources in the area

Homicide

Objectives

ProblemsLimited datasetsHomicide numbers don’t always match Hard to obtain variable data for period of time

Gang ActivityDrug Related Violence

Hard to obtain Historical DataYearly Population DensityYearly Income by NeighborhoodYearly Unemployment Rate by NeighborhoodYearly Percentage of People with KidsYearly Percentage of Races by Neighborhood

Homicide

Brief Background

Total Population: 318,5632013 Total Homicide: 1202014 Total Homicide: 1572014 - 5th Most dangerous city Violent crime per 100,000 inhabitants: 1,594Poverty Rate: 26.6%

Homicide

Homicide

Our Approach/Methods

We looked at following methodsLinear RegressionLogarithmic RegressionPolynomial RegressionThree Month Weighted Moving Average

Best ApproachThree Month Weighted Moving Average

Potential Contributors to HomicideFollowing variables might influence homicide rate

Population DensityMedian Household IncomeMedian Home ValueUnemployment RateRace/EthnicityEducation LevelMedian AgeMarital StatusMale/Female RatioMedian Home Value

Homicide

Homicide

Used only one substantive variable and time indexForecasts solely based on historical patterns of dataWorks better with limited datasetsOther variables can be ignoredTime trend, seasonal adjustment, cyclical component, and irregular component are already included

Why Best Approach

FormulaUsed following formula to calculate the value

Weighted Average = ((3*2014 month) + (2*2013 month) + (1*2012 month)/6

Homicide

How This Method Is UsedBy Distributing Weight

50% to the month of 201433% to the month of 201317% to the month of 2012

Our Prediction - 2015

Homicide

Central North South0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18

120

35

21

104

44

2014 2015

Central North South0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18

120

35

12

95

35

2014 2015

Round Up Total Predicted Homicide Round Down Total Predicted Homicide

Our Prediction - 2015

Homicide

CorridorYear Month North South Central2015 Jan 8 6 02015 Feb 3 3 32015 Mar 5 5 22015 Apr 9 1 12015 May 6 3 22015 Jun 5 5 12015 Jul 9 5 22015 Aug 11 3 22015 Sep 10 3 12015 Oct 13 3 32015 Nov 10 3 22015 Dec 15 4 2

Totals 104 44 21Total Predicted Homicides in 2015 169

Projected Homicide (All Corridors)

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Central Corridor Homicide – (2012-2015)

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Location of Homicides OccurringHomicides are more likely to occur in the North Corridor.Corridor

Year Month North South Central2015 Jan 8 6 02015 Feb 3 3 32015 Mar 5 5 22015 Apr 9 1 12015 May 6 3 22015 Jun 5 5 12015 Jul 9 5 22015 Aug 11 3 22015 Sep 10 3 12015 Oct 13 3 32015 Nov 10 3 22015 Dec 15 4 2

Totals 104 44 21

Homicide

Homicide

Weather vs Number of Homicides

JanFeb

March AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Central

Central - 2012 Central - 2013 Central - 2014

JanFeb

March AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

02468

1012141618

North

North - 2012 North - 2013 North - 2014

JanFeb

March AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

0102030405060708090

100

Weather

Weather - 2012 Weather - 2013 Weather - 2014

JanFeb

March AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

0

5

10

15

20

25

South

South - 2012 South - 2013 South - 2014

How to Improve PredictionProviding adequate historical dataProperly defining gang and drug related activitiesProviding accurate data for variablesExploring other modeling methodsProperly testing modelReadjusting model if needed

RecommendationProperly reallocating active duty personnelNeighborhood Crime WatchJob creationDeploy programs for citizen awarenessDeploy programs to uplift neighborhood situation

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Questions?

Homicide

Citations• http://www.slmpd.org/Crimereports.shtml

• http://www.areavibes.com/st.+louis-mo/neighborhoods/academy/areavibe/

• https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/neighborhoods/

• http://www.point2homes.com/US/Neighborhood/MO/St-Louis/Central-Corridor-Demographics.html#Population

• http://www.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lsx