Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Shaping The Future of Employment In The New Era of Digital Technology
Director of Labor and Employment Creation Ministry Of National Development Planning/Bappenas
Jakarta, 19 July 2018
INDONESIA ALREADY FACING THE LABOR STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
The service sector proved able to absorb the formal workforce. The high proportion
of formal service sector workers is one of them due to the rapid development of the
digital economy that provide alternative formal employment opportunities.
It is also indicated as a result of the rapid development of the digital economy that
provide alternative formal employment opportunities, such as courier services and
online transport and trade services.
Sumber: Sakernas periode Agustus
1,22 1,80
2,62
0,83
-0,39
-1,48
0,57
-1,67
0,08 0,11
0,65 0,32
0,60
-0,39
0,67
2,16
2014 2015 2016 2017
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mil
lio
n W
ork
er
Groeth of labor
Pertanian Formal Industri Pengolahan Formal
Jasa & Lainnya Formal Pertanian Informal
Industri Pengolahan Informal Jasa & Lainnya Informal
13%
59% 69% 92%
55% 43% 34% 45% 36%
84% 98% 74% 79%
100% 98% 91% 55%
11% 55% 65%
88% 64%
41% 34% 42% 34% 72%
98% 79% 76%
100% 98% 94% 65%
11%
59% 65% 89%
46% 45% 34% 44% 34% 71%
98% 77% 80%
100% 98% 90% 57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Proportion of Labor based on 17 sectors and Formal Informal Status
2015 Formal 2015 Informal 2016 Formal 2016 Informal 2017 Formal 2017 Informal
2017
2016
2015
2
3 POTENTIAL OF DIGITAL ECONOMY IN INDONESIA
Rapid Development of Digital Economy in Indonesia
E-commerce Retail Transaction Value in Indonesia 2013-2018
Notes: *projection e-Marketer, 2015 Source: Central Bank of Indonesia & Ministry of Communication and Information, processed
Internet users in Indonesia keep increasing
70% searching for online shopping information (2015)
7,4 million online shoppers with 79,8% individual buyer (2015)
Transaction value up to US$3,5 miliar (2015) with the most popular one (Clothes: 67,1%)
Top 10 Countries with Highest Internet User
69,9
71,7
93,6
104,5
118,4
132,7
139,1
236,9
462,1
731,4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Mexico
Germany
Nigeria
Russia
Japan
Indonesia
Brazil
United States
India
ChinaMillion internet users
Source: Internet World Stats, March 31 2017
71,2 million
88,1 million
93,4 million
2013
2014
2015
1,8 2,6 3,5
5,3
8,2
10,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018*
E-retail Sales (in billion USD)
16% 14% 7%
95% 87% 69%
High-Web Medium-Web Low-Web and No-Web
Historical Three-Year Sales Growth of SMEs
Percentage of SMEs that added jobs during the last three years
The Internet’s Effects on SMEs (2016 - Projection)
Source: Boston Consulting Group, 2012
4 DIGITAL ECONOMY LANDSCAPE
Source: IDEA, 2017
US$ billion (Rp190 trillion)
FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY (FINTECH)
E-COMMERCE
ON DEMAND SERVICES
INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT)
Digital economy has the potential to reach US$130 billion by 2020.
DIGITAL ECONOMY LANDSCAPE
Transaction projection 2016
Transaction nominal per individual 2014
14,5 US$ (Rp747.000)
56,98
Players
Transaction potentials
US$ billion (Rp104 trillion)
8 2013
US$ billion (Rp261 trillion)
20 2016
US$ billion (Rp1.700 trillion)
130 2020
Players
High market demand
million Internet users 132,7 million
Smart phone users 63,4
Players
Asia Pacific market potentials
US$ billion 250 2015
US$ billion 583 2020
Players
5 DIGITAL ECONOMY: GROWTH AND POTENTIALS…
• ICT sector grows more than 9% and continues to do so for the last 2 years.
• Transportation and warehousing sector also grows fast, i.e. 8%, which indicates the growth of start-up e-commerce and transportation, such as Gojek,
Grab, Uber.
• FinTech industry grows positively. There are 184 FinTech companies; 42% are payment-based FinTech companies, 18% are loan-based, and others are
aggregators and crowdfunding.
• In 2016, revenue of e-commerce amounted to USD 6 billion, and 78% of current Internet users made online purchases.
• E-commerce is expected to grow by approximately 18% p.a. in the next five years, reaching a market volume of USD 16.4 billion by the end of 2020.
GDP 2017 Annual
6 DIGITAL ECONOMY HAS POTENTIALS:
ON GROWTH AND JOB CREATION…
Digitalization
Automation
Artificial Intelligence
Job lost ≠ unmployment Technology encourages the creation of new, more
productive and larger amounts of new jobs
Sumber: EMSI; Oxford Economic Forecasting; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey analysis, Future of Jobs Report, WEF
FARMERS, FISHERS,
BREEDERS,
HANDICRAFT
WORKERS
TAILOR, STATIONERY
MACHINE OPERATOR,
LAS & SOLDER
SALES, CASHIER,
TICKETS
CONSTRUCTION
WORKER,
BLACKSMITH
ADMINISTRATION
WORKER,
WAREHOUSE CLERK,
etc
Potential automation
By occupation
49% AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERY,
HUNTING
65% PROCESSING/
MANUFACTURING
53% RETAIL TRADE
45% CONSTRUCTION
64% TRANSPORTATION AND
WAREHOUSE
Potential automation
by sector
McKinsey (2016) estimates that digital
technology will able to create 3,7 million
jobs by transforming informal jobs,
employing inactive population, and reducing
unemployment. It will also increase Indonesia’s
GDP by USD35 billion in 2025.
Indonesia still left behind for: labor market efficiency pillar. From the 137 nations, Indonesia is at 96th position.
Indonesia’s competitiveness pillar
7 POSITION OF INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS RANK (1/2)
96
84
65
57
48
47
36
26
2
0 50 100 150
Indonesia
Filipina
Thailand
Vietnam
Kamboja
Brunei…
Laos
Malaysia
Singapura
Labor Market Efficiency Ranking
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum, 2017-2018
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum, 2017-2018
8 POSITION OF INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS RANK (2/2)
85
67
51
41
39
36
33
20
2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Vietnam
Kamodia
Laos
Indonesia
Brunei
Thailand
Filipina
Malaysia
Singapura
Cooperation in labor-employer relations
2017-2018
2016-2017
103
100
99
86
81
61
31
27
5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Thailand
Kamodia
Indonesia
Filipina
Vietnam
Laos
Malaysia
Brunei
Singapura
Flexibility of wage determination
2017-2018
2016-2017
77
61
56
49
32
30
25
11
3
0 20 40 60 80 100
Filipina
Brunei
Laos
Vietnam
Kamodia
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapura
Hiring and firing practices
2017-2018
2016-2017
113
102
101
95
73
65
45
24
4
0 50 100 150
Indonesia
Filipina
Malaysia
Brunei
Singapura
Thailand
Kamodia
Vietnam
Laos
Women in Labor Force, Ratio to Men
2017-2018
2016-2017
CHALLENGES & GOVERNMENT ACTIONS ON DIGITAL ECONOMY
Formulate
Suitable
Regulation
and
Incentive
Reduce
Digital Gap
• Economic Connectivity, including
Palapa Ring Project, Pipa Bersama
and Wireless Connectivity Pilot
Project for Rural Area
• Government Connectivity in the
form of Integrated Government
Network and Data Center
• Presidential Decree No.
74/2017 on e-Commerce
Road Map 2017-2019
• Tax incentives for start-up
and venture capital (KMK No.
1251/ 1988 and KMK No.
250/1995)
Government Actions
9
Improve
Human
Resources
Capability
• Development of Human Resources
and National ICT Industry e.g. through
establishment of an innovation
development center: Nongsa Digital
Park (NDP) in Batam for creative digital
industry players
• Improving skills of workers
• Creating new jobs by promoting
technology-based entrepreneurship
• Improving employment social
protection
21,30%
14,60%
64,20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2015 2025 2030 2045
Labor Projection by Sector
Agriculture Manufacturing Industry Services
10 FUTURE OF JOBS
Source: Bappenas Calculation, 2017
• Labor with middle-high
education will reach 90%, based
on Vision 2045 projection.
• The required annual growth of
labor with university education
is 3,7% (McKinsey, 2012) or
around 700,000 p.a.
• Service sector will continue to
grow and reach 64,2% in 2045.
10%
70%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2030 2045
Labor Projection by Education
Low Middle High
Notes:
Low: SMP and below; Middle: SMA/SMK & Diploma; High: University
• Complex problem-
solving
• Critical thinking
• Creativity
• People management
• Coordinating with
others
• Emotional intelligence
• Judgment and
decision-making
• Service orientation
• Negotiation
• Cognitive flexibility
Soft Skills
• Computer and Mathematics
• Architecture
• Engineering
(Science, Technology, Engineering,
Mathematics) STEM
Technical skills
Source: Future of Jobs Report, WEF
11 IMPROVING SKILLED WORKERS: STRATEGIC POLICIES
To enhance the training
curricula for improving
soft skills and hard skills
To promote
competency-based
vocational training
and apprenticeship
program
To improve the
qualification, requirement
and the operation of
professional certification
institutions across the
country
1
2
3
Tech improves
labour
productivity
Tech creates more
productive and larger
amounts of new jobs
with higher income
Tech improves
access of MSMEs
to finance
Tech widens the
inclusivity of decent
jobs opportunities
JOB
CREATION
INFORMATION &
TECHNOLOGY
IMPACT ON SDGS
STRATEGIES: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? 12
Improving skills of workers:
1. New automation-supporting skills;
2. Human-specific skills (soft skills, logical thinking, coaching, problem
solving, creativity, etc.);
3. Improvement of education, with emphasis on STEM and soft skills;
4. Facilitation of retraining and income benefits.
Creating new jobs by promoting technology-based
entrepreneurship.
Improving social protection scheme,
coverage and deliveries.
Facilitating knowledge transfer from
high-skilled expatriates.
Promoting more flexible labor market by improving labor
regulation, quality of labor market information, and TVET
system.
THANK YOU.