Shale Gas - Global Experience + Issues

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    Shale gasGlobal experience and key learnings

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    1Shale gas -Global experience and key learnings |

    Contents

    Shale gas: global potential and enablers ...........................3

    Benets of shale gas development...................................3

    Global shale gas potential ................................................5

    Enablers for shale gas development.................................6

    Regulatory landscape ............................................... 6

    Favorable pricing regime...........................................7

    Technological capabilities ..........................................7

    Natural gas pipeline infrastructure.............................7

    Shale gas in India ............................................................8

    Key learning for India......................................................9

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    Shale gas: global potential and enablersSurging shale gas production in the US, as well as the possibility of replication of this success worldwide, has the potential

    to revolutionize the global energy market. Widely dispersed shale gas reserves indicate the strong potential of shale gas to

    emerge as a major alternative source of energy worldwide. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA),

    technically recoverable shale gas resources globally stand at 7,299 trillion cubic feet (tcf) 1. To put this into perspective, global

    natural gas consumption amounted to 116.7 tcf in 20122.

    Hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal drilling have made the revolution possible and continue to be a topic of

    debate across the world. Countries such as China, Poland and Argentina view development of shale gas as a key means to

    achieve energy security. On the other hand, countries such as France and Bulgaria are concerned about the impact on the

    environment and, therefore, continue to impose a moratorium on shale gas-related activities. The hydrocarbon regulatory

    regime in most countries was developed prior to the shale boom and relates to conventional exploration and development.

    Countries that anticipate an upturn in their shale-related activity may need to modify their existing regulations to include shale

    gas or they may have to devise a new regime to govern unconventional resource development.

    1. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy

    Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/, June 2013.

    2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013, BP, http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview, accessed on 16 August 2013.

    3. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy

    Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/, June 2013.

    4. U.S. Natural Gas Summary, US Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_sum_lsum_dcu_nus_a.htm, accessed on 14 August 2013; EY

    analysis.

    5. Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices, US EIA database, accessed 14 August 2013.

    Benets of shale gas

    development

    Unlocking of huge domestic shale reserves has transformed

    the US energy market. Natural gas production has increased

    exponentially and helped the country reduce its reliance on

    imported gas. According to the EIA, the US holds 665 tcf

    of technically recoverable shale gas reserves3. Shale gas

    production in the country jumped from 2 tcf in 2007 to 8.5 tcf

    in 2011. The share of shale gas in the countrys overall natural

    gas production increased from 8% (2007) to 30% (2011).

    Consequently, its gas imports declined from 4.6 tcf in 2007

    to 3.1 tcf in 2012 and its LNG imports from 0.8 tcf to 0.2 tcf

    during this period4.

    Natural gas prices in the US continue to be low, since the

    surge in shale gas production, coupled with a weak demand,

    has resulted in oversupply and very high gas inventories. The

    average price of gas at the Henry Hub has come down from

    US$8.9 per million metric British thermal units (mmbtu) in

    2008 to around US$3.6 per mmbtu in July 20135. Oil and gas

    prices in the US have been moving in different directions since

    2009, resulting in an increase in the countrys oil-to-gas price

    ratio (Chart 1). Similarly, gas prices in the US are prevailing ata substantial discount to gas prices in Europe and LNG prices in

    the Asia Pacic (Chart 2).

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    Chart 1: Oil-gas price ratio

    Source: US EIA, EY analysis

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    Oil-gas price ratio

    Chart 2: US gas prices vs rest of the world

    Source: US EIA, World Bank commodity price data

    0

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    Henry Hub Europe gas Japan LNG

    The shale gas revolution has boosted the US economy by increasing the competiveness of gas-consuming industries, as well as by creating

    employment and revenue opportunities for the state and federal governments.

    Drop in electricity prices:

    In the last decade, electricitygenerated from gas-based

    plants has increased by

    more than 50%, with power

    generators substituting coal

    with cheaply available gas.

    This has reduced the price

    of electricity in the country,

    since wholesale electricity

    prices have slumped by more

    than 50% since 2008.6

    Job creation:

    An increase in shale gasoperations is creating new

    jobs across the US. According

    to IHS estimates, the shale

    gas industry employed more

    than 601,000 workers across

    the value chain in 2010. This

    number is expected to grow

    to 870,000 by 2015 and 1.6

    million by 2035. 8

    Key source of government

    revenue:The shale gas industry is

    emerging as an important

    source of government

    revenues. In 2010, the

    industry contributed around

    US$18.6 billion in taxes,

    including US$9.6 billion in

    federal taxes and US$8.8

    billion in state and local

    taxes.9

    Reduced feedstock costs:

    US-based chemicaland petrochemical

    manufacturers, which use

    gas as feedstock, have

    benetted from the decline

    in input costs. This has given

    the country a competitive

    advantage over players in

    other regions. In the previous

    decade, high feedstock prices

    resulted in many companies

    moving their operations to

    the Middle East and Asia.However, the trend has

    now reversed, with many

    companies, including Exxon

    Mobil, Dow Chemicals and

    Chevron Phillips Chemical,

    increasing their investments

    in the countrys chemical and

    petrochemical industry.7

    6. Electric plants shift from coal to natural gas, The Hawk Eye, 17 January 2012, via Factiva, 2012 The Hawk Eye, Burlington IA. Shale drilling affects rest of energy

    sector, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 18 January 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Tribune-Review Publishing Co.

    7. Shale trickles down, ICIS Chemical Business, 11 June 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Reed Business Information Limited; Exxon Mobil Plans US Gulf Coast Ethane

    Cracker, The Oil Daily, 4 June 2012, via Factiva, 2012 Energy Intelligence Group.

    8. The economic and employment contributions of shale gas in the United States, IHS Global Insight, December 2011, http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/shale-gas-jobs-

    report.aspx; Shale Gas Production to Support 1.6 Million Jobs by 2035, American Gas, 1 February 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 American Gas.

    9. The economic and employment contributions of shale gas in the United States, IHS Global Insight, December 2011, http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/shale-gas-jobs-

    report.aspx.

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    The surge in shale gas production has transformed the countrys

    outlook on energy supplies and has dramatically altered the

    trade ow outlook of the global gas market. According to the

    EIAs Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013, shale gas production

    in the US is likely to account for around 50% of the countrys

    total gas production by 2040. According to the EIA, the USmay become a net exporter of LNG by 2016 from being a major

    importer of the product a few years ago10.

    Global shale gas potential

    The success story of shale gas in the US has resulted in

    heightened speculation over its potential to transform energy

    markets in other regions. The latest estimates published by

    EIA in 2013 on technically recoverable shale gas resources

    worldwide were 10% higher than its estimate in its 2011 report.

    China is expected to have the largest technically recoverable

    shale gas resources (1,115 tcf), followed by Argentina (802

    tcf), Algeria (707 tcf) and the US (665 tcf). Two-thirds of

    technically recoverable shale gas resources are concentrated in

    seven countries China, Argentina, Algeria, the US, Canada,

    Mexico and Australia. In terms of geography, North America

    accounts for a 24% share, South America for 20%, Africa and

    Asia each for 19%, and Europe and Australia for another 12%

    and 6%, respectively, of global technically recoverable shale gas

    resources11.

    >600 tcf 599-300 tcf 299-100 tcf 99-50 tcf

    Source: US Energy Information Administration

    10. Annual Energy Outlook 2013, US EIA, April 2013, pg. 79.

    11. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy

    Information Administration, June 2013.

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    China has the largest shale gas reserves, which account for

    almost 15% of global shares, and around 80% of the reserves

    in Asia. Chinas 12th ve-year plan set shale gas production

    targets of 6.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2015 and

    60 bcm 100 bcm per year by 202012. Chinas state-owned

    company, CNPC, has set a shale gas production target of 2.5bcm by 201513. Difcult geological terrains, an inexperienced

    service industry and lack of technological capabilities may

    however pose a challenge for China to attain its ambitious

    targets.

    In Europe, nearly two-thirds of estimated shale reserves are

    concentrated in three countries Russia, Poland and France.14

    Various European governments have a polarized view on shale

    gas development. Although nearly all European countries

    intend to improve their energy security, which includes reducing

    dependence on gas supplies from Russia, several European

    countries are viewing shale gas development with scepticism,

    mainly on account of their environmental concerns on hydraulicfracturing. While France, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have

    temporarily banned shale gas exploration, the UK and Romania

    have recently lifted the ban. In the meanwhile, Ukraine and

    Poland are actively pursuing shale gas exploration. Most

    other countries are adopting a wait and see approach,

    while others, including Belgium and Austria, are waiting for

    results of scientic studies before issuing permits for shale gas

    exploration.15

    Argentina accounts for more than half of shale gas reserves

    in South America. Its government is encouraging investments

    in the shale gas industry to offset the decline in domestic

    conventional oil and gas production and reduce its dependenceon imported gas from Bolivia. Argentinas national oil company,

    YPF, has plans to spend US$ 2.7b on shale gas during 2013

    2017; this capex accounts for about 40% of its total allocated

    budget for the natural gas segment.16

    Enablers for shale gas

    development

    Countries that are aiming to replicate the North American shale

    gas revolution need to be mindful of several unique factors

    that have helped the US in achieving its success. These include

    industry-friendly regulations, a developed onshore oileld

    services (OFS) sector, an extensive gas- distribution network and

    market-driven gas pricing. Countries other than North America

    do not have similar combination of capabilities in place, and it

    will take time for them to develop these.

    Regulatory landscape 17

    A stable and supportive scal regime was one of the several

    factors that helped to accelerate development of shale gas

    in the US. Furthermore, US legislation pertaining to private

    ownership of surface and mineral rights has enabled easyaccess to land and helped companies acquire large acreage

    for shale gas development. Furthermore, during the initial

    phase of the initiative, the US Government funded R&D

    programs and provided tax credits to stimulate development

    of shale resources.

    Following the US path of offering nancial incentives, other

    countries have plans to offer similar incentives to encourage

    investment in domestic shale gas resources. For instance,

    Western Australia has reduced its royalty rate to increase

    shale gas exploration activities. Similarly, India proposes

    to reduce royalty paid by national oil companies (NOCs)

    for shale gas development. China has allowed foreigncompanies to invest in its shale gas sector (initially limited

    to domestic companies). Additionally, the country has

    proposed a subsidy for every cubic meter of shale developed

    during 20122015. The UK is expected to issue proposals

    for scal incentives later this year to promote investment in

    the shale gas sector. If the proposals are adopted, it will be

    the rst country in Europe to offer new incentives to shale

    gas developers.

    Apart from offering incentives, governments are

    formulating shale gas-specic policies to provide regulatory

    certainty to investors. For instance, the UK Government has

    plans to create an Ofce for Unconventional Gas. Algeria

    has recently amended its hydrocarbon law, which now

    promotes development of unconventional resources.

    12. China Plans Second Shale Bid Round, The Oil Daily, 28 June 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Energy Intelligence Group.

    13. China Shale Enthusiasm Dims, World Gas Intelligence, 20 March 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Energy Intelligence Group.

    14. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US Energy

    Information Administration, June 2013.

    15. Europe divided on shale gas, Agence France Presse, 7 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Agence France-Presse.

    16. Business plan 2013 2017, YPF, August 2012, pg. 43, 44.

    17. A retrospective view of shale gas development in the United States, United States Association for Energy Economics, http://www.usaee.org/usaee2013/

    submissions/Abs/What%20led%20to%20the%20shale%20gas%20boom.pdf, April 2013, 2013 Resources for the Future; The international dynamics of shale, EY,

    May 2013; UPDATE 3-Britain lifts shale gas ban, imposes tighter rules, Reuters News, 13 December 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Reuters Limited; Shalegas policy on way, Metis Energy Insider, 17 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Metis Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd; Western Australia looks to shale plays to

    end gas shortages, LNG Intelligence, 9 September 2011, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2011 Energy Intelligence Group; National oil company monitor, EY, Q1 2013;

    Oil min plans sops to boost shale gas production, Indian Express, 12 August 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Indian Express Online Media Pvt. Ltd; Algeria

    amended hydrocarbon law published in ofcial gazette, Platts Commodity News, 10 March 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Platts.

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    Favorable pricing regime 18

    Faced by gas shortage during the 1970s, the US

    Government began deregulating wellhead gas prices

    starting 1979, with complete deregulation coming into force

    from 1993 onward. This gradual deregulation led wellheadprices to better reect supply/demand balances and

    provided the necessary stimulus to production of natural

    gas.

    Over the past one year, China, India and Argentina have

    raised their natural gas prices amid a widening gap between

    natural gas production and consumption in these countries.

    According to the new pricing formula to be adopted by India,

    wellhead gas prices are expected to double from US$4.4/

    mmbtu currently to US$8.4/mmbtu (at current crude prices)

    by April 2014. China has increased city gate gas prices for

    the non-residential sector by 15% (on an average) across

    the country. In 2012, Argentina has announced that oiland gas companies will be able to secure a wellhead price

    of US$7.5/mmbtu for new gas production in the country.

    Its government has already signed deals with YPF and Pan

    American Energy, allowing them to charge an increased

    price. It is expected to sign similar agreements with other

    companies in coming years. These initiatives aim to provide

    incentives to oil and gas producers to explore and develop

    shale gas blocks. In addition, China is offering shale gas

    blocks, India has plans to conduct an auction for shale gas

    in the near future and Argentina has intensied its efforts to

    tap its Vaca Muerta shale plays.

    Technological capabilities 19In the US, the shale gas revolution was led by small and

    mid-size independent oil and gas companies that pioneered

    technologies to extract shale gas. Additionally, the US

    had large and experienced OFS companies, including

    Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes, which have

    played a pivotal role in supporting the countrys shale

    industry.

    Government-owned companies are forging partnerships

    with oil and gas companies operating in the US to leverage

    the latters experience and technological capabilities.

    For instance, the Chinese (through CNPC) and Ukrainian

    governments have signed their rst production-sharing

    agreement for upstream shale activities with Shell, taking

    an important step toward full-scale commercial development

    of the gas. Similarly, YPF has entered two separate deals

    with Bridas International and Chevron for exploration ofVaca Muerta shale plays. India-based ONGC has signed

    an agreement with ConocoPhillips for cooperation in

    exploration and development of domestic shale gas

    resources.

    Acquisition of stakes in foreign shale assets is another

    strategy being adopted by oil and gas companies to ll their

    technology and experience gaps. In 2012, Sinopec signed

    a wide-ranging US$2.5b joint venture agreement with

    Devon Energy for the latters 33% stake acreage, which is

    spread across ve US onshore shale plays. During the same

    year, Indian state-owned companies, OIL and IOCL, jointly

    acquired a 30% stake in Carrizos liquid-rich shale assets inthe Niobrara basin in the US.

    The absence of a relatively experienced service industry

    is pushing countries to enter partnerships with foreign

    OFS companies. For example, in 2010, the Weir Group and

    Shengli Oileld Highland Petroleum Equipment Co formed

    a JV to provide equipment to Chinas shale gas industry.

    In 2012, China-based Anton Oileld Services offered

    Schlumberger a 20% stake the two companies plan to

    cooperate on shale gas development in China.

    Natural gas pipeline infrastructure 20

    Another factor that contributed to the shale gas revolution

    in the US was the existence of its extensive network of

    pipelines to transport natural gas. Additionally, the country

    had a policy of open access to interstate natural gas

    pipelines, which helped it create a competitive wholesale

    natural gas market.

    Countries such as Poland, with lucrative shale deposits, lack

    such an extensive, country-wide pipeline infrastructure.

    Shale gas elds in some, such as China, are fairly isolated

    from the countrys existing pipeline infrastructure.

    Additionally, countries including China impose restrictions

    on third-party access to pipeline infrastructure. Global

    output of shale gas on a scale, similar to that of the US,

    will depend on the ability of countries to overcome the

    challenges mentioned above.

    18. Gas Pricing and Regulation: Chinas Challenges and IEA Experience, International Energy Agency, April 2013, pg. 44, 45; China, India Gas Price Reforms Open

    Door to More LNG Imports, RIA Oreanda-News, 16 July 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 RIA OREANDA; Pan American Energy to Invest $3.4B in Argentina

    From 2013-17, Dow Jones Top Energy Stories, 29 December 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc; Argentine president agrees to

    higher prices for gas producers, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 30 November 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 IHS Global Insight Limited.

    19. Andrew Neff, Ukrainian government approves shale gas PSA with Shell, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 24 January 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 IHS

    Global Insight Limited; The international dynamics of shale, EY, May 2013; UPDATE 3-Argentine YPF, Bridas in shale investment deal, Reuters News, 29 December

    2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 Reuters Limited; Chevron, YPF agree Argentina shale drilling program, The Oil Daily, 20 December 2012, 2012 Energy

    Intelligence Group; National oil company monitor, EY, Q1 2012; National oil company monitor, EY, Q4 2012; The Weir Group and Shengli Oileld Highland

    Petroleum Equipment Form JV, Manufacturing Close-Up, 2 December 2010, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2010 Close-Up Media, Inc; Schlumberger Purchases Stake inChinese Oileld Services Company, RIA Oreanda-News, 27 July 2012, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2012 RIA OREANDA.

    20.A retrospective view of shale gas development in the United States, United States Association for Energy Economics, http://www.usaee.org/usaee2013/

    submissions/Abs/What%20led%20to%20the%20shale%20gas%20boom.pdf, April 2013, 2013 Resources for the Future; China commences construction of rst

    shale gas pipeline, IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, 20 June 2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 IHS Global Insight Limited.

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    21.Twelfth ve year plan, Planning Commission, Government of India, 2013, Pg. 176; Monthly production, Ministry Of Petroleum & Natural Gas, March 2013.

    22.Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, US EnergyInformation Administration, June 2013; World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States, US Energy Information

    Administration, April 2011.

    23.Industry News - Shale Regulation Limits Short-Term Unconventional Outlook, Business Monitor International, 15 August 2013.

    Shale gas in India

    Indias natural gas market continues to see a decit, with demand far exceeding

    supply. In FY13, natural gas consumption in India is expected amount to104.4 bcm, as compared to its production of 40.7 bcm.21Consequently, the

    countrys dependence on LNG imports has increased considerably. The Indian

    Government has been taking measures on an ongoing basis to bridge this

    supply-demand decit. These include its initiatives to increase wellhead gas

    prices, effective April 2014, which is likely to incentivize companies to increase

    their gas production and also benet the Indias shale gas industry.

    The EIA has revised its estimates upwards for technically recoverable shale gas

    resources in India, which now stand at 96 tcf, up from its previous estimate

    of 63 tcf.22The revision will help the Government attract investors to its rst

    shale gas bidding round (slated toward the end of 2013).

    The Government has prepared a draft policy for exploration and production

    of shale oil and gas in the country, and has invited comments and suggestions

    from various stakeholders. According to the proposal submitted by the

    Petroleum Ministry to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, initial

    permission for exploration of shale resources on existing acreage will be

    restricted to NOCs. The policy also proposes several nancial incentives for

    NOCs, including Income tax and customs exemptions, along with reduced

    royalty to be paid on shale gas. The Ministry plans to formulate a separate

    policy for private and foreign companies at a later date. 23

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    Key learning for India

    In order to replicate the shale gas boom in the US, the Indian

    Government will need to build strong service and infrastructure

    capabilities, along with a favorable regulatory regime, whichnot only promotes shale gas exploration and production

    (E&P) activities, but also addresses environmental and social

    concerns. Taking a cue from the US, the Government could look

    at building a liberal scal regime, since the shale industry is at

    its infancy stage of development in the country, and the cost of

    such initiatives will be higher than those of conventional oil and

    gas operations.

    Lack of technological know-how and inadequate OFS sector

    capacity and suitable equipment are some of the bottlenecks

    impeding the development of Indias unconventional resource

    potential. Domestic state-owned and private companies have

    partnered with foreign companies and also acquired stakes inforeign shale assets to gain the required technical expertise.

    They will have to continue to foster such partnerships to be

    able to apply their expertise in developing shale gas reserves in

    India. Additionally, many OFS companies are looking to export

    the techniques they have used successfully in North America

    to international markets. The Indian Government could tap this

    opportunity and encourage the participation of such companies

    in the country.

    India will also need to expand its natural gas pipeline

    infrastructure. Presently, around 11,500 km is covered by

    natural gas pipelines across the country, with another 12,650

    km of pipeline infrastructure being under various stages of

    implementation.24Timely execution of these projects will

    be critical for developing shale resources. Furthermore, the

    Government will have to create a favorable policy that addresses

    the concerns of both landowners, and oil and gas companies,

    with land acquisition expected to be a vital issue in India.

    In the US, shale gas revolution has been led by mid-sized

    independent E&P and technology companies. Similarly, the

    Government of India should ensure that adequate incentives anda level playing eld are made available to domestic private and

    foreign companies to encourage investments in this important

    hydrocarbon resource.

    24. 12,650 K.M. Cross Country Pipeline Network being laid for transporting natural gas throughout the Country : Petroleum Minister, Metis Energy Insider, 18 March

    2013, via Dow Jones Factiva, 2013 Metis Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

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    Near. C.N Vidhyalaya, Ambawadi

    Ahmedabad-380015

    Tel: +91 79 6608 3800

    Fax: +91 79 6608 3900

    Bengaluru12th & 13th oor

    U B City Canberra Block

    No.24, Vittal Mallya Road

    Bengaluru-560 001

    Tel: +91 80 4027 5000

    +91 80 6727 5000

    Fax: +91 80 2210 6000 (12th oor)

    Fax: +91 80 2224 0695 (13th oor)

    1st Floor, Prestige Emerald

    No.4, Madras Bank Road

    Lavelle Road Junction

    Bengaluru-560 001 India

    Tel: +91 80 6727 5000

    Fax: +91 80 2222 4112

    Chandigarh

    1st Floor, SCO: 166-167

    Sector 9-C, Madhya Marg

    Chandigarh-160 009

    Tel: +91 172 671 7800

    Fax: +91 172 671 7888

    ChennaiTidel Park, 6th & 7th Floor

    A Block (Module 601,701-702)

    No.4, Rajiv Gandhi Salai Taramani

    Chennai-600113

    Tel: +91 44 6654 8100

    Fax: +91 44 2254 0120

    Hyderabad

    Oval Ofce

    18, iLabs Centre

    Hitech City, Madhapur

    Hyderabad - 500081

    Tel: +91 40 6736 2000

    Fax: +91 40 6736 2200

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