Shainin B vs C Webinar - Squarespacestatic.squarespace.com/static/515082bbe4b0910b244269db/t... · Everyone is muted. We will start at 7pm EST. Shainin B vs C Webinar Ha Dao, Chairman

Everyone is muted. We

will start at 7pm EST.

Shainin B vs C Webinar

Ha Dao, ChairmanASQ Automotive Division

Moderator

Call In: 215-383-1016

Code: 853-908-666

2ASQ Automotive Division Webinar Series

Thank You for Joining our ASQ Webinar


Richard Shainin, Executive VP

How to Calculate a Risk of

a Decision: Shainin B vs C

Shainin LLC

February 15, 2010

7:00 pm – 8:15 pm EST

ASQ Automotive Division Webinar Series


Housekeeping Items

About ASQ Automotive Division

Webinar Series

Polls

How to Calculate the Risk of a

Decision: Shainin B vs C

Questions & Answers

Agenda


Everyone is muted

Session is being recorded

Session will last about 75 minutes

Slides posted at www.asq-auto.org

Participate thru polls, chat & questions

Will answer questions at the end:• Q&A in last 10 minutes

• Please type your questions in the panel box

Housekeeping Items

http://www.asq-auto.org/




Tad Kowalski - Emerson Climate Technologies

Sandy Cornellier - Shainin LLC

Kevin Wu - ASQ China

All International Attendees

Special Recognition


Ha Dao, ChairmanASQ Automotive Division

ASQ Fellow

Six Sigma Master BB

Shainin Red X Master

15+ Yrs of Experience in

Automotive Industry

Troy, Ohio

[email protected]

About Me

Your Moderator

mailto:[email protected]


ASQ Automotive

Division is a Division

of ASQ, the Global

Voice for Quality.

ASQ Automotive Division

ASQ Automotive Division has more than

3200 members globally, who share a

common interest in the automotive

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from almost every discipline in the

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business in the automotive, heavy-truck,

off-highway, agricultural, industrial and

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ASQ Auto Webinars Series 2010-2011

The ASQ Automotive Division

is pleased to present a regular

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featuring leading international

experts, practitioners,

academics, and consultants.

The goal is to provide a forum

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of automotive professionals.

The presentation slides are posted on our

website www.asq-auto.org. Recorded

webinars are also available for

viewing after the events. To register for a

future webinar, see the listings at our

website www.asq-auto.org.








Su Glesner, Sr. Reliability Engineer

Reliability Maturity

Do you know your RMI (Reliability

Maturity Index)?

AM General

March 24, 2011

Upcoming Webinar in March

7:00 pm – 8:15 pm EST


Call for Speakers & Volunteers


is also seeking

volunteers for leadership

positions to serve on the

Division Council.


is seeking Speakers and

Topics for our

Webinar Series.

Contact Ha Dao, Chair


[email protected]



Richard Shainin, Executive VP

How to Calculate a Risk of

a Decision: Shainin B vs C

Shainin LLC

February 15, 2010

7:00 pm – 8:15 pm EST

Introducing Dick Shainin


Interactive Polls

How to Calculate

the Risk of a

Decision: Shainin

B vs C

• Richard Shainin

• Executive Vice President

• Shainin

• February 15, 2011

1. Change.

2. Impact of ineffective changes.

3. Minimizing ineffective changes.

4. B vs. C Test.

5. Randomization.

6. Additional examples.

Agenda

15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Align to Current Process

Process Improvement

Product Change Request

Quality Improvement

Cost Savings

Change Type

One Quarter of Data, > 2000 changes approved

Nu

mb

er

of

Ch

an

ges

Manufacturing changes for released products across 6 manufacturing sites.

Global Electronics Company

16

Effectiveness?

Lots of engineers making things „better‟.

Less than 20% of the changes achieved their desired result.

17

Compressors fail in the field after

21,000 miles.

All vehicle platforms experience

the failure.

Returned compressors have

extensive damage.

Compressor Broken Reed Case

Automotive HVAC

The majority of warranty claims are in warmer climates.

Warranty claims are highest in the summer months.

Warranty costs have risen to $20 million per year.

18

Product Function

Background Information

Failure

Initiation

New

Reed

Failed

Reed

19

The X Y Approach

Four teams of experts have already „solved‟ this problem.

Nine product changes over seven years.

Five documented processing changes over seven years.

Make a change and wait for the next round of summer

warranty data to see if the problem has been solved.

“The customer test fleet!”

20

Engineering cost of designing the change.

Manufacturing cost to implement the change.

Cost of unnecessary processing.

Cost of extra or more expensive materials.

Cost of containment.

Cost of scrap and rework.

Time from decision to change to implementation.

Time from implementation to accurate assessment of change.

Warranty costs.

Waste from Ineffective Changes

21

Loss of brand loyalty.

Loss of credibility within the supply chain.

Loss of credibility with senior leadership.

Marketing cost of ineffective changes

22

Understandin

g the physics

Experience

based

approach

Directional correct

design change

Technical

problem

Process/Product Control

Design Change

Contrast based

convergent approach

Brainstorming based

approach

Problem Solving

23

“Talking to the engineers produced

a list of all the inputs that could be

causing the problem.”

“Talking to the parts revealed the

true answer.”

Contrast Based Convergent Approach

Dorian Shainin (1914-2000)

“Keep your eyes open and your

mouth shut. Let the parts guide

you to the answer.”

24

Solution Tree

Rationale:

Strategy choice based on

physics of failure. Lowest

risk and lowest cost along

with the fastest timing.

B vs C test.

Investigation

PressureVolume Temperature

System

Energy

CompressorStrength

AC

System

Contrast

PlatformContrasts

Decrease

Compressor

Energy

IncreaseCompressor

Strength∆P ∆ M

25

B vs C 6 Pack

The B vs C Test is used to determine if a design or process

change produces an improved Green Y distribution.

The 6 Pack is a B vs C test that is simple to run and confirms the

Red X with only a 5% risk of being fooled.

26

B better than C

Statistical representation of an effective change.

27

B is not better than C

Statistical representation of an ineffective change.

28

B vs C

Let’s evaluate by putting results in rank

order with the best result having the

highest rank.

When B is not better, the B vs C test results become a

game of chance, controlled by sample size and analysis

method.

29

B Not Better Than C

With 2 samples, 1B and 1C, there are only 2 possible rank order outcomes.

RankPossible

Outcomes

1 2

1 B C

2 C B

There is a 50% chance that we will be fooled into believing B is better.

30

B Not Better Than C

With 3 samples, 1B and 2Cs, there are only 3 possible rank order

outcomes.

Ran

kPossible Outcomes

1 2 3

1 B C C

2 C B C

3 C C B


31

B Not Better Than C

With 4 samples, 2Bs and 2Cs, there are only 6 possible rank order

outcomes.

Rank Possible Outcomes

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 B B B C C C

2 B C C B B C

3 C B C B C B

4 C C B C B B


32

B Not Better Than C

With 5 samples, 2Bs and 3Cs, there are only 10 possible rank order

outcomes.

Rank Possible Outcomes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1 B B B B C C C C C C

2 B C C C B B B C C C

3 C B C C B C C B B C

4 C C B C C B C B C B

5 C C C B C C B C B B

There is a 10% chance that we will be fooled into believing B is better.33

B Not Better Than C

With 6 samples, 3Bs and 3Cs, there are only 20 possible rank order outcomes.

Ran

kPossible Outcomes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1 B B B B B B B B B B C C C C C C C C C C

2 B B B B C C C C C C B B B B B B C C C C

3 B C C C B B B C C C B B B W W W B B B C

4 C B C C B C C B B C B C C B B C B B C B

5 C C B C C B C B C B C B C B C B B C B B

6 C C C B C C B C B B C C B C B B C B B B

There is a 5% chance that we will be fooled into believing B is better.34

Consequences of a

Wrong Decision

Number of

Randomized

Samples

Desired

Confidence ~ Risk

B

Samples

C

Samples

0.999 0.001

Super Critical

3

4

5

6

16

10

8

6

0.99 0.01

Critical

2

3

4

5

13

7

5

4

0.95 0.05

Important

1

2

3

19

5

3

0.90 0.10

Moderate

1

2

9

3

No overlap of

ranks is permitted

for this test.

B better than C, not

just different.

B vs C Table for a One Tailed Test

B and C sample

sizes are

interchangeable.

35

Consequences of a

Wrong Decision

Number of

Randomized

Samples

Desired

Confidence ~ Risk

B

Samples

C

Samples

0.999 0.001

Super Critical

3

4

5

6

16

10

8

6

0.99 0.01

Critical

2

3

4

5

13

7

5

4

0.95 0.05

Important

1

2

3

19

5

3

0.90 0.10

Moderate

1

2

9

3

No overlap of

ranks is permitted

for this test.


just different.


B and C sample

sizes are

interchangeable.

6 Pack Test

36

Our Parts or Systems Vary

37

Time

DX

1. Cycle

How do variables change over time?

Spurious Associations

38

Time

DX

1. Cycle

2. Trend



39

Time

DX

1. Cycle

2. Trend

3. Shift



40

Time

DX

B B

C C

B

C

Testing in phase with process variation?

BOB

WOW


41

Time

DX

B BB

C C C

Testing in phase with process variation?

BOB

WOW


42

Time

DX

B

C

B B

C C

Breaking Phase With Every Other X

BOB

WOW

Randomization

43

Time

DY

BCB

B

Breaking Phase With Every Other X: The Result

C C

BOB

WOW

Randomization

44

Time

DX

B

C

B B

C C


Randomization

45

Time

“Randomization is the engineer’s insurance policy for breaking phase relationships with time.” – Dorian Shainin

DX

B

C

B B

C C


Randomization

46

B

C

B

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

C

B

C

B

C

B

C

B

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

C

C

B

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

C

C

B

B

C

B

C

C

C

B

B

B

B

C

B

C

C

B

B

C

C

C

B

B

B

B

C

B

C

C

C

B

B

B

C

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

B

B

B

C

C

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

C

B

B

C

B

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

C

B

B

C

C

C

B

B

B

C

Some of These Do Not Break Phase With Trends,

Shifts and Cycles

Planning Randomization

47

Select an order among these 10 choices.

C

B

C

B

C

B

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

C

B

C

B

B

C

B

B

B

C

C

C

C

B

B

C

B

C

B

C

C

B

B

C

C

C

B

B

B

C

1 32 54 6 87 9 10

Ten Useful Random Patterns

Planning Randomization

48

B = Reduce suction port diameter.

C = Current suction port diameter.

Response = Cycles to failure.

Allowed risk = 5%

Required End Count = 6

Reducing the suction diameter will improve reed. There was a 5% risk

that these test results happened by chance.

Broken Reed B vs C Verifies Solution

49

Run Order

Sample Cycles to Fail

Rank Order

Sample Cycles to Fail

B +7.0M DNF B +7.0M DNF

B +7.0M DNF B +7.0M DNF

C 3.1M FAILED B +7.0M DNF

B +7.0M DNF C 3.6M FAILED

C 3.6M FAILED C 3.1M FAILED

C 2.8M FAILED C 2.8M FAILED

Tolerance Parallelogram

Setting the piston orifice diameter to .146” ensures all

reeds will last for at least 5,000,000 cycles by reducing the

maximum energy the reed experiences.

50

Transmission Failures

51

Snap Ring Picture

52

Failed B vs C

Conclusion: Failed to confirm candidates as Red X

B vs C for Group Comparison Red X Candidates

B = Spring Force = 70 lbs., Free ID = 2.25,” Free End Gap = 2.1 mm

C = Spring Force = 40 lbs., Free ID = 2.27,” Free End Gap = 4.6 mm

Response = Line pressure to fail the snap ring at 4000 RPM in reverse.

Allowed Risk = 5%


Run Order

B or C Pressure to Fail

Rank Order


C 380 C 600

B 580 B 580

B 270 C 380

C 600 B 380

C

B

53

Pressure Test

54

Run Order


Rank Order


B 750 DNF B 750 DNF

B 750 DNF B 750 DNF

C 270 FAILED B 600 DNF

B 600 DNF C 290 FAILED

C 200 FAILED C 270 FAILED

C 290 FAILED C 200 FAILED

B = WOW Time part with sealer (wax) removed.

C = WOW Time part with heavy rust inhibitor (wax) coating.

Response = Line pressure to fail the snap ring at 4000 RPM in reverse.

Allowed risk = 5%


The Red X is the Rust Inhibitor!

B vs C to Verify Inhibitor as Red X

55

1973 New commercial jet engine for Boeing 747. Second

stage turbine blades are discovered to be creeping in service.

Engineers believe the problem is new proprietary coating on

blades. They recommend replacing all second stage blades

with more expensive traditional coating.

Can‟t afford a 5% risk of being wrong.

Cost to replace blades is going to be $40 million.

Time to replace blades will be months.

Customer planes have been grounded until answer is known.

Pratt & Whitney JD-9D Turbine Blade Creep

B vs C

56

Consequences of a

Wrong Decision

Number of

Randomized

Samples

Desired

Confidence ~ Risk

B

Samples

C

Samples

0.999 0.001

Super Critical

3

4

5

6

16

10

8

6

0.99 0.01

Critical

2

3

4

5

13

7

5

4

0.95 0.05

Important

1

2

3

19

5

3

0.90 0.10

Moderate

1

2

9

3

No overlap of

ranks is permitted

for this test.


just different.


B and C sample

sizes are

interchangeable.

Critical

consequences

57

Data Presentation: Two tables (usually side by side) where the first

table shows the result in run order and the second table shows the

result in rank order with the resulting end count at the bottom of the

second table.

Conclusion: Did you meet the required end count? If so, what can

you conclude?

The following elements should be documented:

B and C Settings: Defined specifically enough that your work may be

replicated.

Response: Clearly defined so that there is no question regarding how the samples will be measured. (e.g., Hole radius measured 458 from the

front parting line. Not – hole radius.)

Allowed risk and the resulting required end count.

Elements of a Well Designed B vs C Test

58

Title: How To Calculate The Risk Of A Decision

Copyright: 1968, ASQC

Author: Shainin, Dorian

Organization: Rath & Strong Inc.

Subject: Administration, Shainin techniques;

Series: Quality Progress, Vol. 1, No. 8, August 1968, pp. 21-23

Bibliography

Title: A Quick, Compact, Two-Sample Test To Duckworth's

Specifications*

Copyright: 1959, ASQC and the American Statistical Association

Author: Tukey, John W.

Organization: Princeton University

Subject: ;

Series: Technometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, February 1959, pp. 31-48

59


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[email protected](937) 524-5533 (T)(937) 710-3054 (C)

2590 Merrimont DriveTroy, OH 45373






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Shainin B vs C Webinar - Squarespacestatic.squarespace.com/static/515082bbe4b0910b244269db/t... · Everyone is muted. We will start at 7pm EST. Shainin B vs C Webinar Ha Dao, Chairman