Setting the Stage

Office Hours

• When– Today- 11-2– Wednesday 10-2

• Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

THE HOUSE ELECTIONS

The Results

• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP

Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”

Democratic seats

THE SENATE

The Results

• No Decapitation of Reid

• No Biden Seat

• The Democrats Hold

Tea Party Candidates in the Senate

A Mixed Bag• Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI

• Losers-, DE, CO, NV

STRUCTURE, TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP

Why the GOP Won

Structural Factors

• Timing

• Availability

Turnout

• Very Similar to 2006

• A Smaller Electorate than 2008

Low Motivation from The Left

• Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory

• Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

• Card Check

• Don’t Ask Don’t Tell

• Public Option

• A Larger Stimulus Bill

• Immigration Reform

• Bringing the Troops Home

Who Voted

• GOP was more energized

• More conservative

• Older

• Whiter

Race and Age

Gender and Region

Partisanship and Ideology

The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years

The Nomination

The First Step

Starting the Process

• You have to decide as many as 8 or 12 years in advance

• You have to begin your exploratory campaign 2-3 years before the general election

• The Reluctant do not win

You have to wait for your window

• You do not want to run against a popular president

• 1984, 1996

The Nomination Window: Not Your Turn

• You may not want to run against an 8 year Vice-President

• 1960, 1988, 2000

The Nomination Window: Spoiler

• You do not want to run against your party’s incumbent

• 1976, 1980

The Nomination Window: National Factors

• You Want National Trends to be in your favor

• 1964, 1952, 2008

The Nomination Window: Keeping your day job

• It is difficult to run for two offices at once

• You might go 0-2

A Candidate Who Says they aren’t running, just might..

2008 Was open for Both parties

The 2012 Window

• Obama’s 2008 victory meant the Democrats had to wait until 2016.

• For Republicans 2012

was wide open

The 2016 is likely to be wide-open for both parties again

CANDIDATES MATTERYou Cannot Beat Someone with No One

Not all offices are created Equal

Presidents and Vice-Presidents

• Presidents have the best chance at nomination

• V-P’s are the default candidates

• In 2012 The GOP had Neither

U.S. Senators• Advantages

• Disadvantages

Before Obama, Harding and Kennedy only senators to go straight to the White House

Governors

• Advantages

• Disadvantages

House Members

• Who?

• Victims of the Permanent Campaign

Other Offices

• No Chance Anymore

• Provide a little fun

In 2012 Old Familiars Sat it out

The Class of 2010

• The 2010 class wanted to wait

• Still to new to office

When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus

Lose< Not Run< Win

The GOP Field in 2012

Presidential Jobs• Governors

– Perry– Romney– Huntsman

• Senators– Santorum

Non-Presidential Jobs• House Members

– Gingrich– Bachmann– Paul

• Other– Herman Cain