Session introduction

David MitchellBTRE

Improving North-South corridor road and rail links – issues, options, payoffs

Inter-capital freight movement – road predominant

Note Freight estimates exclude steel movements carried by rail and bulk freight moved by coastal shipping, the latter includes significant quantities of liquid fuel transported from Westernport (Vic.) to Sydney and Brisbane.

Source BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112).

(million tonnes)

Mode

Corridor Road Rail Sea All modes

Bne–Syd 4.9 0.9 0.03 5.9

Syd–Mel 7.9 1.0 0.01 8.9

Bne–Mel 2.0 0.9 0.05 2.9

Total 14.8 2.9 0.09 17.7

Share (tkm-basis, per cent)

Total 79.9 19.6 0.5 100.0

Inter-capital passenger travel – air predominant

Source BTRE 2007, Passenger movements between Australian cities, 1970-71 to 2030-31 (Information Sheet 26).

(‘000 passenger trips)

Mode

Corridor Air Car Bus Rail Other All modes

Bne–Syd 1 804 546 32 44 194 2 620

Syd–Mel 4 529 913 126 69 169 5 806

Bne–Mel 1 233 94 19 8 41 1 395

Total 7 566 1 553 177 121 404 9 821

Share (pkm-basis, per cent)

Total 74.1 17.6 2.0 1.5 4.8 100.0

North–South corridor traffic volumes

Light vehicles (AADT) Heavy vehicles (AADT)

$

$

$

0 80 160 240

Kilom eters

LV AADT

25000 12500 6250Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

1 0 0 0 0(2 0 3 2 )

A vg . 1 8 3 0L o w (6 5 3 )

1 1 7 3 0(1 4 5 0 )

1 6 8 2 0(5 3 4 0 )

$

$

$

0 80 160 240

Kilom eters

HV AADT

5000 2500 1250Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

3670(1597)

A vg . 828Low (291)

1518(332)

4640(805)

Inter-capital road traffic a small share

Sources BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112), State/Territory road traffic data (2005) and BTRE estimates.

Total traffic Inter-capital traffic Inter-capital share

Light

vehicles Heavy

vehicles Light

vehicles Heavy

vehicles Light

vehicles Heavy

vehicles

(AADT) (AADT) (AADT) (AADT) (%) (%)

Bne–Syd 28 555 6 160 831 621 2.9 10.1

Syd–Mel 10 000 3 668 1 390 1 020 13.9 27.8

Bne–Mel 1 827 828 143 243 7.8 29.3

BTRE-projected BAU freight growth 3.5%pa (absent significant modal shift)

Sources BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112) and BTRE forthcoming, Road impacts of road–rail mode shift.

Year Road Rail Sea All modes

Freight task (million tonnes)

2000 13.9 3.1 0.1 17.2

2025 36.0 4.3 0.1 40.4

Projected growth (% pa)

2000–2025 3.9 1.3 0.0 3.5

Projected BAU North-South freight by mode

Sources BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112) and BTRE forthcoming, Road impacts of road–rail mode shift.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(mill

ion

tonn

es)

Sea

Rail

Road

ProjectionsEstimates

Under these assumptions, inter-capital truck travel up 70% on average

Sources BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112) and BTRE forthcoming, Road impacts of road–rail mode shift and BTRE estimates.

2000 2025 Growth

Freight

(Mt)

Truck travel

(AADT) Freight

(Mt)

Truck travel

(AADT)

Freight

(%)

Truck travel

(%)

Bne–Syd 4.9 621 12.8 1 122 162.2 80.7

Syd–Mel 7.9 1 020 18.7 1 661 136.3 62.8

Bne–Mel 2.0 243 4.5 368 119.7 51.4

Total NS 14.8 1 884 36.0 3 152 143.1 67.3

Projected North-South freight – increased rail share scenario

Sources BTRE 2006, Freight measurement and modelling in Australia (Report 112) and BTRE forthcoming, Road impacts of road–rail mode shift and BTRE estimates.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(mill

ion

tonn

es)

Sea

Rail

Road

ProjectionsEstimates

Significant inter-capital rail mode shift, but muted impact on total corridor truck movements

Source BTRE estimates.

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2000 2025(BAU)

2025 (withrail mode

shift)

2000 2025(BAU)

2025 (withrail mode

shift)

2000 2025(BAU)

2025 (withrail mode

shift)

Ave

rage

HV

tra

ffic

(A

AD

T)

Inter-capital OD road freight

All other road freight

Brisbane-Sydney Brisbane-MelbourneSydney-Melbourne

Supporting material

BAU projected freight task – Syd-Mel

0

5

10

15

20

25

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(mill

ion

tonn

es)

Sea

Rail

Road

ProjectionsEstimates

BAU projected freight task–Bne-Syd

0

4

8

12

16

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(mill

ion

tonn

es)

Sea

Rail

Road

ProjectionsEstimates

BAU projected freight task–Bne-Mel

0

2

4

6

8

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

(mill

ion

tonn

es)

Sea

Rail

Road

ProjectionsEstimates

Other material

Key issues

• Volume of freight likely to switch• Infrastructure costs• Benefits

– Reduced road wear– Reduced external costs (e.g. accidents, pollution, congestion)– Reduced shipper costs/increased service quality

Avoidable road infrastructure costs are low• Life-cycle pavement cost based modelling implies avoidable

road costs between 1–2 c/km for heavy vehicles on these corridors– Well below current fuel-based variable charges (9–10 c/km)

• External costs– Accidents costs most significant – between 1–5 c/km for HVs,

varying with road standard and traffic mix– Greenhouse gas emissions (@ $A10/t CO2) – between x–y c/km– Other external costs negligible for inter-capital freight

Net road-side impact and implications• For most inter-capital links, including North-South corridors:

– Avoidable pavement wear & external costs < Current variable road use charge

– The implication is that heavy vehicles more than cover avoidable infrastructure and external costs

– For infrastructure assessments, this implies that the indirect impacts of rail investment is nil (negative)

– For rail projects then, the benefits within the rail mode should at least cover the project costs to be considered.

Concluding remarks

• Projected growth in North-South inter-capital freight will be serviced by road—freight to more than double 2005–2025

• Increasing vehicle size will mitigate the growth in vehicle numbers

• Rail may increase share. However, likely to reduce inter-capital HV traffic by less than 20%

• Indirect road-side savings likely to be small