The Incredible Complexity of Commercial Aviation

Session 7

Air traffic Control

Boeing 737 MAX

COVID-19

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Air Traffic Control

• The task of ensuring safe operations of commercial and private aircraft falls on air traffic controllers

• They must coordinate the movements of thousands of aircraft, keep them at safe distances from each other, direct them during takeoff and landing from airports, direct them around bad weather and ensure that traffic flows smoothly with minimal delays

• There are more than 14,000 FAA air traffic control specialists providing a vital public service to guide pilots, their planes and 2.7 million daily passengers

• The training regimen and proficiencies needed to become an air traffic control specialist, are demanding

• Initial selection does not guarantee placement into federal civilian service

• Entry-level applicants must complete required training courses at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City and gain on-the-job experience before becoming certified professional controllers

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KguBoIHI4I&t=170s

This is how the FAA provides the safest and most efficient aerospace system in the world6.5 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KguBoIHI4I&t=170s

Air Traffic Control

• There are from 4,000 to 6,000 aircraft operating in the National Airspace System (NAS) during peak periods

• This equates to approximately 50,000 aircraft operations per day

• The task of ensuring safe operations of commercial and private aircraft falls on air traffic controllers

• The role of the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) is to manage this flow of air traffic within the continental United States

• The ATCSCC has been operational since 1994 and is located in one of the largest and most sophisticated facilities of its kind

• There are many support components that aid in the successful balance of air traffic demand with system capacity

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ATC Control -Zones

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The United States airspace is divided into now 24 zones (centers), and each zone is divided into sectors

Air Traffic Control

• Also within each zone are portions of airspace, about 50 miles in diameter called Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) airspaces

• Within each TRACON airspace are a number of airports, each of which has its own airspace with a 5-mile radius

• The air traffic control system, which is run by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), has been designed around these airspace divisions

• Takeoff and climb:

• The departure controller is located in the TRACON facility, which may have several airports within its airspace (50-mile/ radius)

• Controller uses radar to monitor the aircraft and must maintain safe distances between ascending aircraft

• An airplane's transponder transmits flight data (identification) to incoming radar signals

• The departure controller gives instructions to your pilot (heading, speed, rate of ascent) to follow regular ascent corridors through the TRACON airspace

• In each sector, center controllers radio instructions to the pilots

• The controller continues to give directions (altitude, speed, heading) to your pilot until your plane is within TRACON airspace

• The pilot is given approach instructions and information, weather, winds, runway to use,etc

• Upon landing, a ground controller directs the pilot regarding taxi ways,etc

• Finally you land safely

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Air Traffic Control-System Divisions

• There are five air traffic control system divisions :

• Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) -Oversees all air traffic control

• It also manages air traffic control within centers where there are problems (bad weather, traffic overloads, inoperative runways)

• Air route traffic control centers (ARTCC) –

• There is one ARTCC for each center

• Each ARTCC manages traffic within all sectors of its center except for TRACON airspace and local-airport airspace

• Terminal radar approach control - TRACON

• Handles departing and approaching aircraft within its space

• Air traffic control tower (ATCT) –

• Is located at every airport that has regularly scheduled flights

• Towers handle all takeoff, landing, and ground traffic

• Flight service station (FSS) –

• Provides information (weather, route, terrain, flight plan) for private pilots flying into and out of small airports and rural areas

• It assists pilots in emergencies and coordinates search-and-rescue operations for missing or overdue aircraft

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Air Traffic Control-Typical Flight

• As an aircraft travels through a given airspace division, it is monitored by the one or more air traffic controllers responsible for that division

• The controllers monitor the plane and give instructions to the pilot

• As the plane leaves one airspace it is handed off to a controller in the next airspace

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Air traffic Control –Next Gen

• The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is the FAA-led modernization of America's air transportation system to make flying even safer, more efficient, and more predictable

• It runs from 2010 to 2030 and is broken up into five year segments

• Our modernization effort is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in U.S. history

• Rather than simply making minor upgrades to aging infrastructure, the FAA and its partners are implementing major new technologies and capabilities

• Together, we are shaping a more modern, resilient, and secure National Airspace System to more efficiently serve more than 2.7 million passengers and 44,000 flights per day

• NextGen is not one technology, product, or goal

• It encompasses innovative and transformative technologies that are being developed and deployed after thorough safety testing

• NextGen is about halfway through a multi-year investment and implementation plan

• For several years now, it has continually introduced new technologies to improve air travel

• The FAA plans to keep introducing cutting-edge technologies, procedures, and policies that benefit passengers, the aviation industry, and the environment through 2025 and beyond

• All of NextGen's upgrades are being implemented while the FAA and NextGen stakeholders continue to deliver on our shared top priorities:

• Emphasizing safety

• Increasing efficiency

• Improving environmental performance

• Enhancing the passenger experience

• In the busiest — and safest — airspace in the world

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Air Traffic Control –Next Gen

• NextGen significantly improves overall capacity, performance, efficiency, and predictability throughout the NAS

• Through our modernization efforts, the FAA is creating new interconnected systems that fundamentally change and improve communications, navigation, and surveillance in the National Airspace System (NAS):

• Communications:

• In a modernized NAS, aircraft must be able to receive dynamic, complex instructions from ground systems that can identify where they need to be and at what time

• Data Communications helps pilots and air traffic controllers to communicate more quickly, more easily, and with less risk of miscommunication than radio messages over busy frequencies

• With changes in these three core areas and others, NextGen significantly improves overall capacity, performance, efficiency, and predictability throughout

• Navigation:

• The FAA has switched to a primarily satellite-enabled navigation system that is more precise than traditional ground-based navigation aids

• Satellites enable the FAA to create optimal flight paths anywhere in the NAS for departure, cruising altitude, arrival, and landing operations

• These precise, efficient procedures can reduce flying time, fuel use, and aircraft exhaust emissions while getting passengers to their destinations at more predictable times

• Surveillance:

• The ongoing implementation of NextGen provides air traffic controllers with the exact location of aircraft and a clear vision of surrounding conditions, including weather patterns and aircraft

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737 MAX

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737 MAX-Technical Specs

737 MAX 7 737 MAX 8 737 MAX 9 737 MAX 10

Seats (2-class) 138 – 153 162 – 178 178 – 193 188 – 204

Maximum

seats172 210 220 230

Range nm (km) 3,850 (7,130) 3,550 (6,570) 3,550 (6,570)* 3,300 (6,110)*

Length35.56 m (116 ft

8 in)

39.52 m (129 ft

8 in)

42.16 m (138 ft

4 in)

43.8 m (143 ft 8

in)

Wingspan35.9 m (117 ft

10 in)

35.9 m (117 ft

10 in)

35.9 m (117 ft

10 in)

35.9 m (117 ft

10 in)

Engine

LEAP-1B from

CFM

International

LEAP-1B from

CFM

International

LEAP-1B from

CFM

International

LEAP-1B from

CFM

International

210 seats: 737-

8-200

*one auxiliary

tank

*one auxiliary

tank

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737 MAX

• 737 MAX is the latest version of the Boeing 737

• It uses the CFMI Leap engines

• The diameter if the Leap fan is 68”

• The diameter of the CFM56-7 fan is 61”

• The size of the Leap engine required mounting the engine more forward than the engines on previous models of 737

• This changed the aerodynamics of the 737 MAX

• To compensate for this change Boeing introduced and automatic anti stall system-MCAS

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737 MAX

• 737 MAX is the latest version of the Boeing 737

• It uses the CFMI Leap engines

• The diameter if the Leap fan is 68”

• The diameter of the CFM56-7 fan is 61”

• The size of the Leap engine required mounting the engine more forward than the engines on previous models of 737

• This changed the aerodynamics of the 737 MAX

• To compensate for this change Boeing introduced and automatic anti stall system-MCAS

• The larger nacelle, placed further forward, destabilizes the aircraft in pitch

• All parts of the aircraft placed ahead of the Center of Gravity around which the aircraft moves in pitch will contribute to destabilize the aircraft in pitch

• This changed the aerodynamics of the 737 MAX

• To compensate for this change in the aerodynamics of the 737MAX, Boeing introduced an automatic anti stall system-Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS)

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737 MAX

• NTSB participated in the investigations into both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes

• Investigations conclude that a faulty AOA sensor provided erroneous input to the MCAS resulting in the aircrafts’ downward pitch that could not be overcome by the pilots

• They were unable to disconnect the MCAS and regain control

• Boeing had not provided MCAS information to the pilots and had not provided adequate training for pilots about the MCAS

• U.S. house of Representatives Committee held hearings on the accidents, Boeing’s designs and FAA oversight

• The Congressional Committee was very critical of both Boeing and the FAA

• Boeing regarding their internal methods of determining what systems’ information needed to be given to pilots and whether ty should be highlighted in training manuals and included in simulator training

• The FAA was criticized for excessive delegation of airworthiness approval authority to Boeing

• The FAA grounded the 737 MAX on March 13, 2019

• The aircraft is expected to re certified and return to service early in 2021

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COVID 19 and the Airlines

• U.S. airlines have been affected by Covid-19 pandemic

• Passenger revenues are down

• Load factors are down

• Average fares per passenger are down

• Airlines’ response:

• Delay or cancel orders for new aircraft

• Put aircraft into storage

• Adjust schedules

• Rely on cargo for revenue

• Layoff personnel

• Lobby federal government for taxpayer support

• Foreign airlines have had similar experience and have taken similar actions

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COVID 19 and the Airlines

• Schemes to earn revenue:

• Some airlines have begun “flights to nowhere”

• Passengers just take a round trip ride with an airline meal

• ANA

• EVA

• Royal Brunei Airlines

• QANTAS

• Singapore

• A number of airlines are flying passenger aircraft nearly empty in order to carry cargo in their baggage/cargo compartments

• KLM is flying some 747s with passenger seats removed and loading freight into the passenger compartments

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COVID 19 and the Airlines• The International Air Transport Association (IATA):

• The airline industry cannot slash costs sufficiently to neutralize severe cash burn to avoid bankruptcies and preserve jobs in 2021

• IATA again called for government relief to sustain airlines financially and avoid massive employment terminations

• IATA also called for pre-flight COVID-19 testing to open borders and enable travel without quarantine.

• Total industry revenues in 2021 are expected to be down 46% compared to the 2019 figure of $838 billion

• Recovery has been delayed however, owing to new COVID-19 outbreaks, and government mandated travel restrictions including border closings and quarantine measure

• IATA expects full year 2020 traffic to be down 66% compared to 2019, with December demand down 68%

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COVID 19 and the Airlines-IATA Projections

• Looking forward to 2021, IATA estimates that to achieve a breakeven operating result and neutralize cash burn, unit costs will need to fall by 30% compared to 2020

• Such a decline is without precedent

• With international demand down nearly 90%, airlines have parked thousands of mostly long-haul aircraft and shifted their operations to short haul flying where possible

• Because the average distance flown has fallen sharply, more aircraft are required to operate the network

• Thus, flown capacity (ASKs) is down 62% compared to January 2019, but the in-service fleet is down just 21%

• Around 60% of the world aircraft fleet is leased but aircraft rental costs have dropped less than 10% over the past year

• It is critical that airports and air navigation service providers avoid cost increases to fill gaps in budgets that are dependent on pre-crisis traffic levels

• Infrastructure costs have fallen sharply because of fewer flights and passengers

• Infrastructure providers could cut costs, defer capital expenditures, borrow on capital markets to cover losses or seek government financial relief

• Fuel prices are down 42% on 2019

• They are expected to rise next year as increased economic activity raises energy demand

• IATA is not advocating specific workforce reductions

• At last year’s level of labor productivity (ASKs/employee), would require employment to be cut 40%

• Further jobs losses or pay cuts would be required to bring unit labor costs down to the lowest point of recent years, a reduction of 52% from 2020 Q3 levels.

• Even if that unprecedented reduction in labor costs were to be achieved, total costs will still be higher than revenues in 2021, and airlines will continue to burn through cash.

• “Even if we maximize our cost cutting, we still won’t have a financially sustainable industry in 2021”

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COVID 19 and the Aircraft Manufacturers and Airports

• Boeing and Airbus have reduced production schedules

• Airbus received government “bailout”

• Boeing borrowed heavily

• Boeing’s revised workforce plan will see it have 130,000 employees by the end of 2022

• Reflecting 30,000 voluntary and involuntary cuts compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic

• Boeing will fund its retirement plans with Boeing stock instead of payments “for the foreseeable future

• Airbus announced it will layoff 15,000 employees

• Boeing cancelled its planning for its proposed New Model Airplane (NMA)

• A proposed twin aisle aircraft

• Boeing had said it has now begun planning for a new single aisle aircraft ??

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Next Session Future of Commercial Aviation

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COVID-19 Horrific Impact on Commercial Aviation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WFMt14dSoQ

Can major airlines survive the Corona Virus? 10:20 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kj2FFeqnQY

Early 2020 Commercial flights impacted worldwide 3:50 Minutes

https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2020/mar/COVID-19-Impact-On-Commercial-Aviation-Maintenance.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7euwWDRhD8

Boeing 737 NG – CFM56 Engine AD 3:40 Minutes

MRO adjustments due to Covid-19; 2 year look forward and could turn out to be worse than stated here.

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WFMt14dSoQhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kj2FFeqnQYhttps://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2020/mar/COVID-19-Impact-On-Commercial-Aviation-Maintenance.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7euwWDRhD8

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COVID-19 Horrific Impact on Commercial Aviation

Published July 16, 2020The first half of the year was not kind to the 737 Max. Boeing froze production of its beleaguered plane from January through much of May as customers canceled hundreds of orders, and deals for hundreds more were put at risk by delays in the plane’s return to the skies and the corona virus pandemic.

But Boeing is back to work on the Max, and if it passes regulatory scrutiny, the plane could (?) fly again as soon as the end of this year. When it does, it will return to an industry that was hammered and faces a several years long recovery.

The Max crisis has already wrecked Boeing’s bottom line. In January, the company said it expected the grounding to cost $18 Billion, which didn’t account for the ruinous effect the pandemic would have on airlines. In April, it announced plans to cut about 16,000 jobs, or a tenth of its work force, because of the pandemic’s impact.The aerospace manufacturer said this week that its customers had canceled 373 Max orders in the first six months of the year. Another 439 are considered at risk, including nearly 100 that Norwegian Air, a struggling low-cost carrier, recently said it no longer planned to buy.

Boeing still has several thousand pending orders for the Max, but analysts expect that to shrink somewhat as more customers back out of deals. And even though the company plans to increase production of the jet and other 737 variants to 31 planes per month sometime next year, that is about half the rate Boeing had targeted before the Max was grounded.

Globally, airlines are losing hundreds of millions of dollars by the day, and most experts predict it will be two to five years before the industry sees as many passengers as it did in 2019. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the financial crisis a decade ago, airlines recovered before the overall economy, according to Boeing, which expects the opposite this time around. This will also have extreme negative effects on the new CFM 56 LEAP Engine Program.

OLLI Fall 2020