SESSION 7 – ACTIVITIES & THEIR ANALYSIS Copyright 2011 Phil Heywood

SESSION 7 – ACTIVITIES & THEIR ANALYSIS

Copyright 2011 Phil Heywood

Activity Systems Analysis & Modelling

Simplified Models, Urban Transport & Journey to Work Systems

WORKWORK

RECREATIONRECREATION HOMEHOME SHOPSHOP

SCHOOLSCHOOL

Activity Systems Analysis & Modelling

Simplified Models, Urban Transport & Journey to Work Systems

WORKWORKHOMEHOME

Techniques of Access & Transport Analysis(Including road, rail, water, cycle,

foot & information technology channels)

1. Barriers to access analysis2. Journey to work analysis and projection by mode3. Strategic Origins and Destination Survey & Analysis 4. Information Technology review, projection and substitution

potential 5. Investment need & proposal analysis

Community & Culture:Including Social Characteristics & Capital

1. Social composition: description, analysis & trends

2. Cultural diversity, ethnicity, conflicts and mutual aid

3. Indigenous issues

4. Community organization review and analysis ( social capital & human resources analysis)

5. Social, Human & Cultural Capital review (e.g. JAPA Spring 2004 Special Edition)

Conceptual Model: Employment Change

JOBS

WORKERS

Future Employment

Total & Structure

Future Unemployment

Rate & Total

POLITICAL CHOICE

Existing Employment

Total

Existing Population

Total

Projected Future

Employment Demand

Projected Future

Population Total &

Age/Sex Structure

Existing Unemployment

Projected Unemployment- Labour supply

deficiency/excess rates

Projected Future

Labour/Supply Potential

Future Employment

Policy (length of working week, retirement age,

education policy, etc)

Activity Rates

Employment Trends

Net Reproduction Rates

Economy, Employment & Training(Including existing industry, economic base, cluster,

employment and skills analysis)

1. Shift /Share analysis ( previous & existing employment by local and national growth performance projected to compare local and national, contracting & expanding industries)

2. Job Availability: description, analysis and projection3. Skills audit : analysis of Resident Population skills and structure4. Industrial complex & cluster analysis5. Basic employment (Area Forming) & Local Service (Area Serving)

employment analysis6. Analysis of training opportunities7. Resource Inventory of District infrastructure – water, power,

sewage, liquid and solid waste disposal, regional and national transport facilities

Analytical Model, Supply & Demand for JobsGreater Brisbane 1996-2006-2016

656,592858,974

(Growth Rate: 30.82%)

1,123,736(Growth Rate:

30.82%)


16.87%)


23.84%)

66.02% 68.34% 76.50% 68.34% 72.42%

994,540 1,256,849 1,468,838 1,468,838 1,468,838

Jobs

WorkforceParticipationRate

WorkingPopulationAge (15-65)

1996 Census 2006 Census2016 Projections

Scenario 12016 Projections

Scenario 22016 Projections

Scenario 3

GREATER BRISBANE JOBS AND WORKING POPULATION1996 – 2006 - 2016

Cycle of Human Use of Natural Resources

* Recycling: water, metals, paper, glass, sewerage, animal waste+ Reclamation: Mining spoil, chemicals. Plastics, concrete, bricks, domestic refuse, derelict land

Transformed Natural

Environment & Matter

Polluted Natural

Environment

Mind, Values & Ideas

Natural Environment & Matter

Energy Sources

Raw Material

sFood

Sources:Atmosphere,

sun, soil, water

TechnologicalTransformatio

n

Natural Ecological Processes

The Closing Circle

Recycling*

Human Use

Bio-hostile Matter

Production Refuse Waste

Reclamation &

Restoration+

Environment & Natural Resources(Including land, water, air & habitat)

1. Resource inventory of water, land, air and habitats2. Review and mapping of open space systems and potentialities3. Existing & anticipated technological & societal impacts 4. Quality & pollution analysis of land air & water resources5. Review and mapping of recreation facilities 6. Land tenure, capacity and quality (description and analysis).7. Resource Demand projection, costing and options 8. Scenario Development for likely impacts of technological

change9. Leading practice examples and implications

Governance & Administration(Including representative Government, public participation, corporations,

public private partnerships & community organisation)

1. Structure and role of different levels and departments of government, community, and private sector organizations

2. Distribution, dominance, dependency & population ratios of District & Neighborhood organizations

3. Content and consistency of different levels of existing and proposed plans

4. Description and analysis of different local boundaries of service organizations (including tables, diagrams and maps)

5. Institutional analysis of service providers

Strategic Issues for Housing in South East Queensland

Courtesy Peter Walsh

Dominant Preference for Detached Housing

Rapid & Externally Driven Population Growth

Growth in One & Two Person Households

Movement to Urban FringeAgeing of Population

DEMAND FACTORS

Strength Tenure Options

Incentives for Private Rental

Integrated Opportunities for Low Income Households

Coordinated Infrastructure Support

Efficient Residential Land Use

Appropriate Housing Form

SUPPLY FACTORS

Uneven Spatial Distribution of Tenure

Low Supply of Alternative Tenure

Options

Segmented Housing Market

Affordability Issues

Infrastructure Supply Constraints

Increased Pressure on Private Rental Market

Affordable & Available Land on the Fringe

Decreasing Government Housing and Infrastructure Funds

Housing Policy & Provision(Including household forecasts, land demand & supply

& neighbourhood design)

1. Demographic analysis and projections, particularly of households

2. Household size and housing type analysis and projection

3. Housing Land Supply description & analysis (SEQ’s Broad Hectare Study)

4. Housing Tenure description, analysis & projection

5. Description & analysis of design options and implications

Projection of Housing Demand & Land SupplyExisting Households (Greater

Brisbane as at 2006)

Couple only 265,194

Couple with children 301,450

One parent with children 111,764

Other family 12,393

Group household 46,288

Lone person household 209,810

TOTAL 946,899

Housing Land Supply (Broad hectare stock) (Greater Brisbane as at 2006)

Separate houses (low density) 502,674

Semi-detached (low-medium density)

45,585

Low rise (medium density) 59,560

High rise (high density) 14,735

Other dwellings 5,661

TOTAL 628,216

Changes from 1996-2006 (%) (Greater Brisbane)

34.41

16.16

35.32

13.44

14.11

29.30

Projected Housing Needs 2016 (SEQ)

361,746

359,750

126,038

3,603

45,365

270,174

1,166,676

Demand increase (2006-2016)

96,552

58,300

14,274

-8,790

-923

60,364

229,490

Changes from 1996-2006 (%) (Greater Brisbane)

Number Percentage

45,942 9.14%

14,852 32.6%

1,295 1.02%

7,305 49.58%

-14,846 -72.39%

Projected Supply in 2016 (SEQ)

802,140

106,413

104,567

9,141

6,597

1,028,858

Supply increase (2006-2016)

299,466

60,827

45,007

-5,594

936

406,236

Greater Brisbane

Population & Space

Resolution

Resulting Excess/ Deficiencies Forecast

Household type In separate houses (low density) % Number

Couple only 24 23,172

Couple with children 70 40,810

One parent with children 45 6,423

Other family - -

Group household 80 -738

Lone person household - -TOTAL HOUSEHOLD DEMAND

70,945

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY 299,466DEFICIT/EXCESS +228,521


Household type In attached (Low-medium density) % Number


Couple with children 30 17,490


Other family 34 -2,989

Group household 20 -185

Lone person household 35 21,127TOTAL HOUSEHOLD DEMAND

66,785

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY 60,827DEFICIT/EXCESS -5,958


Household type In low rise (medium density) % Number


Couple with children - -



Group household - -


37,386

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY 45,007DEFICIT/EXCESS +7,621


Distribution High rise (high density) % Number



One parent with children - -


Group household - -


47,318

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY -5,594DEFICIT/EXCESS -41,724

Resulting Excess/ Deficiencies ForecastHousehold type In other dwellings (mainly mobile

homes) % Number

Couple only 4 3,852


One parent with children 5 714

Other family - -

Group household - -


7,594

TOTAL LAND SUPPLY 936DEFICIT/EXCESS -6,658

TOTAL OVERALL HOUSING LAND EXCESS = 181,802

Human Development & Services(Including social capital, characteristics, services & facilities)

1. Inventory of Community facilities and provisions for human development services

2. Needs analysis & projection for districts & suburbs: health; education; social, cultural and community services

3. Analysis and projection of dependency, independency and interdependency

Model of Land Use Generation (Highly generalised)

ElectorsPolitical Parties

Alternative Party Programs Elections

4th State Mass Media

Govt. Policies Local & Central

Households

Workers

Students

Movers

People at Play

Shoppers

Natural Resources

Capital

Education

Production

Recreation

Exchange

Consumption (the market)

Private Investment

National Revenue

Residence

Manufacture

Commerce

Recreation

Communications

Education

Homes

Lodginghouses

Factories

Farms

Offices

Shops

Theatres

Parks

Roads

Railways

Air & Sea Ports

Schools

House-holders

Workers

Shoppers

People at Play

Movers

Students

Electors

Residence

Land Uses, Settlement Form & Urban Design (Including central places)

1. District, Suburb & local character analysis (Lynch & Bentley et al)

2. Pattern of existing Major Land Uses

3. Current Policy inventory and Analysis

4. Central Place hierarchy

5. Grain, Character and Diversity

6. Comparative Settlement Form Analysis and Options Development

The Role of Activity Systems in Planning Analysis

1. Systems are universal- a way of looking at things that focuses on elements and relations, emphasising inputs, processes and outputs

2. Ideal for identifying and quantifying relationships with other systems e.g. links between population, housing & employment

3. A good diagram can help build bridges with colleagues & among different specialists

Evaluating the Ethics of SEQ Water Supply & Demand Policies Lacey & Heywood, 2010

ETHICAL PRINCIPLES INDICATORS SUPPLY OPTIONS DEMAND OPTIONS

Dam

Construction

PRW

Desalination

Dispersed W

ater Collection

Groundw

ater

Dom

estic Dem

and M

anagement

Industrial WEM

Ps

Power G

eneration

Wastage &

Leakage Control

EQUITABLE OUTCOMES Safe, clean & affordable water to meet basic life needs of all citizens

++ ? +/- +/- ? ++ + + +

Fair & equitable criteria for decisions over water distribution & access policies

- -- - ? ? + + + +

FAIR PROCESSES Open, timely & transparent control over decision processes

-- -- -- ? + + + ? N

Fair distribution of costs and benefits between different groups of users

-- - ? +/- - ++ + + +

OPTIMISED USER CAPABILITIES

Adequate access to water to meet demands for forecast consumer groups (i.e. residents, workers, tourists, recreation seekers etc.)

+ - + N N + N ++ +

Equal influence, involvement & status to participate in water decisions

-- - -- + - + N - N

EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION & COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

Freely available & accessible information in understandable form

- ? - + ? ++ N N ?

Clear & effective links between communication & influence on outcomes (including conflict & negotiation)

-- +/- -- ++ ? ++ + + ?

Systems Analysis Attributes

1. Allows quantification of relationships and therefore assists prediction

2. Highlights causal links

3. Good for scoping impacts & testing policies

Conclusions

• Community Planning Methods should start from simple human concerns and objectives that everyone can understand & contribute to

• They should conclude in clear, costed and identifiable plans that can be committed to and implemented, phase by phase

• In between, the level of analysis may become quite sophisticated and expert, but must always be clearly explicable

Documents

SESSION 7 – ACTIVITIES & THEIR ANALYSIS Copyright 2011 Phil Heywood