Session 2 no 5 Hirschberg.ppt - IAEA · 2009. 9. 25. · Title: Session 2 no 5 Hirschberg.ppt [Compatibility Mode] Created Date: 9/24/2009 2:00:45 PM

Stefan Hirschberg, 15. 09. 2009

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments

2009 IAEA Scientific Forum

Externalities in the Energy SystemStefan Hirschberg

2009 IAEA Scientific Forum, Vienna, 15-16 September 2009




Contents• Introduction - What are externalities ?

• Environmental impact and external costs assessment methodology

• Result examples

• Total costs and cost-benefit analysis

• Major limitations

• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

• Conclusions




Externalities are changes of welfare generated by a given activity without being reflected in market prices. They may be positive (benefits) or negative (costs).

A cost (benefit) is external when it is not paid (enjoyed) by those who have generated it.

Negative externalities are borne by society: they should be reduced, and passed on to those who generate them (application of the “polluter pays principle” through internalisation).

What are externalities?




Air pollution increases hospital admissions for respiratory illness• Costs of health care• Lost productivity• Own pain and suffering• Pain and suffering of others

Water pollution leads to loss of fish• Reduced recreational opportunity• Commercial losses• Impact on biodiversity

Congestion leads to loss of time, productivity

Examples of external costs




Externalities included in current state-of-the-art EC (NEEDS)Impact Cat. Pollutant / Burden Effects Human Health mortality

PM10 SO2, O3 Benzene, BaP, 1,3-butad., Diesel part., radioact.,HM Noise Accident risk

Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to short time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Fatality risk from traffic and workplace accidents

Human Health

PM10, O3, SO2 Respiratory hospital admissions

morbidity PM10, O3 Restricted activity days PM10, CO Congestive heart failure Benzene, BaP, 1,3-

butad., Diesel part.,radioact.

Cancer risk (non-fatal)

PM10 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms

O3 Asthma attacks, symptom days Noise Myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, hypertension,

sleep disturbance Mercury Loss of IQ of children Accident risk Risk of injuries from traffic and workplace accidents Source: NEEDS/RS1b, 2009Other heavy metals Diverse health impacts




Externalities included in current state-of-the-art EC (cont.)Impact Category

Pollutant / Burden Effects

Building Material

SO2, Acid deposition Combustion particles

Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sand-stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings Soiling of buildings

Crops SO2 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar beet

O3 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice, tobacco, sunflower seed

Acid deposition Increased need for liming N, S Fertilising effects Global Warming

CO2, CH4, N2O World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise

Amenity losses Noise Amenity losses due to noise exposure Ecosystems SO2, NOx, NH3 Eutrophication, Acidification Land Use Change

‘PDF’ of species

Source: NEEDS/RS1b, 2009




EIA – The Impact Pathway Approach

Impacts

Health impacts,

crop losses, ...[e.g. YOLL/kWh]

DispersionModeling

Increase of pollutant

concentrations[e.g. Δ μg/m3]

Valuation

Monetaryvaluation:

External Costs[e.g. €/kWh]

Emissionsdirect + LCA

SO2, NOx, particulates, ammonia, ...

[e.g. tons/year]




EcoSense Versions

Europe

Russia

ChinaBrazil

PSI+IER

EcoSense multi-source developed at IER Stuttgart (Heck et al.)




Mortality in China due to Air PollutionEmissions from all SectorsEmissions from all Sectors Emissions from Power SectorEmissions from Power Sector

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2003




Mortality from Normal Operation

Sour

ce: H

irsch

berg

et al

., 200

8




Severe Accident Fatality Rates

Sour

ce: H

irsch

berg

et al

., 200

8




Valuation – ExamplesHealth impact EU current*

(EUR 2000)

EU 1999**

(US $2000)

China***

(US $ 2000)

Value of Statistical Life 3’000’000 3‘000‘000 440‘000

Acute Years of Life Lost / reduction of life expectancy (per YOLL)

60’000 110‘000 15‘710

Chronic Years of Life Lost / reduction of life expectancy (per YOLL)

40’000 110‘000 15‘710

Restricted activity days (per case) 130 116 17

Chronic bronchitis (per case) 200’000 178‘000 25‘400

*NEEDS 2009 ** ExternE 1999 *** Hirschberg et al. 2003




External Costs: Today, Western Europe (NEEDS Results)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

lignit

e

hard

coal

nat. g

as C

C

fuel c

ell, N

G

offsh

ore w

ind

photo

volta

ic

solar

therm

al

bioma

ss m

ix, C

HP

nucle

ar

ocea

n ene

rgy

hydro

gen,

electr

ol.

Exte

rnal

cos

ts 2

005

(Eur

o-ce

nt20

00/k

Whe

)

climate change, high - lowclimate change, lowother non-climate impactsregional health impacts

Source: NEEDS/RS1a, 2009




External Costs: Year 2050, Western Europe (NEEDS Results)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

lignit

e

lignit

e, po

st CC

S

lignit

e, ox

y CCS

hard

coal

hard

coal,

post

CCS

hard

coal,

oxy C

CS

nat. g

as C

C

nat. g

as C

C, C

CS

fuel c

ell, N

G

fuel c

ell, w

ood g

as

offsh

ore w

ind

photo

volta

ic

solar

therm

al

bioma

ss m

ix, C

HP

nucle

ar

ocea

n ene

rgy

hydro

gen,

electr

ol.

Ext

erna

l cos

ts 2

050

(Eur

o-ce

nt20

00/k

Whe

)

climate change, high - lowclimate change, lowother non-climate impactsregional health impacts

Source: NEEDS/RS1a, 2009




Full Costs of Electricity Generation Options (primarily CH)

Sour

ce: H

irsch

berg

et al

., 200

7




Total Costs of Electricity – China

7.7

18.4

3.3

15.2

10.3

7.7 6.9 6.45.4

4.3

14.5

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Shan

dong

avera

ge

Weiha

i Coa

l Ref

Heze

Coa

l Ref

Nucle

ar AL

WR

Jinan

Coa

l Ref.

Jinan

New

Coa

l, low

S

Jinan

Coa

l Dry

FGD

Jinan

Coa

l Wet

FGD

Jinan

Coa

l AFB

C

Jinan

Coa

l IGCC

Jinan

Gas

CC

US

Cen

ts p

er k

Wh

RadiationCO2-equivalentParticulatesNOxSO2Internal Costs

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2003




0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Billion US $ in Year 2020

Cost

Benefit

Cost

Benefit

Coa

l, FG

DC

lean

Coa

l-Te

chno

logy

+D

iver

sific

atio

n

Additional internal costs Crops Morbidity Mortality

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Selected Electric Sector Simulation Scenarios, Province Shandong in Year 2020

Cost Benefit (avoided external damages)

compared to coal without FGD compared to coal without FGD

Source: Hirschberg et.al., 2003

15.4

0.9

10.2

0.5

incl. LCA




Total Cumulative Damage (1990 – 2100) for Selected IPCC Scenarios

Source: Hirschberg & Burgherr 2002

1272

666

310

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

A1F1 A1T B1

trillio

n US

D (2

000)

CO2 Air Pollution

Fossil-intensive Sustainable Conservation




Examples of controversial/difficult to estimate external effects

• Severe accidents, terrorism, risk aversion• Visual intrusion• Resource depletion• Nuclear proliferation• Biodiversity losses• Security of supply• Social justice and conflict potential

Serious attempts to estimate the corresponding costs mostly lead to low estimates but this does nor resolve the controversy!




F-N Curves for Nuclear: Late Cancer Fatalities (LCF)

1.E-12

1.E-11

1.E-10

1.E-9

1.E-8

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Number of Late Cancer Fatalities (LCF)

Freq

uenc

y of e

xcee

danc

e per

GW

eyr

CH 2000

FR 2030 CH 2030

FR 2000

Sour

ce: H

irsch

berg

et al

., 200

8




NEEDS Survey I: Externality Concept, Results and UsesIn spite of the limitations, there is general acceptance of the concept of

externalities, of the internalisation of external costs and of most results, but…

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Coal and oil technologies have thelowest external costs

Natural gas technologies have quitelow external costs due to low air

pollution and moderate external costsdue to greenhouse gases.

Renewable technologies have mostlylow external costs

Nuclear energy has low external costs

I don’t know Fully agree Mostly agree Mostly disagree Fully disagree

Source: Faberi et al., 2007




Sustainability Criteria

Sour

ce: H

irsch

berg

et al

., 200

7&20

08

Criterion RESOURCES Energy Resources Mineral Resources (Ores) CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS Impacts from Normal Operation Impacts from Severe Accidents WASTES Special Chemical Wastes stored in Underground Depositories

ENVI

RO

NM

ENTA

L D

IME

NSI

ON

Medium and High Level Radioactive Wastes to be stored in Geological Repositories

IMPACTS ON CUSTOMERS Price of Electricity IMPACTS ON OVERALL ECONOMY Employment Autonomy of Electricity Generation IMPACTS ON UTILITY Financial Risks

ECO

NOM

IC D

IMEN

SIO

N

Operation SECURITY/RELIABILITY OF ENERGY PROVISION Political Threats to Continuity of Energy Service Flexibility and Adaptation POLITICAL STABILITY AND LEGITIMACY Potential of Conflicts induced by Energy Systems. Necessity of Participative Decision-making Processes SOCIAL AND INDIVIDUAL RISKS Expert-based Risk Estimates for Normal Operation Expert-based Risk Estimates for Accidents Perceived Risks Terrorist Threat QUALITY OF RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT Effects on the Quality of Landscape

SOC

IAL

DIM

ENS

ION

Noise Exposure

Society

Environment

Economy

North

Today‘sgeneration

South/East

Tomorrow‘sgeneration

Society

Environment

Economy

North

Today‘sgeneration

South/East

Tomorrow‘sgeneration




Tota

l cos

ts =

gene

ratio

n cos

ts +

exte

rnali

ties Nuclear Fossil Renewable

Worst

Best

Aver

age M

CDA

Rank

ing

€cen

ts /

kWh

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

EU P

ress

urise

d Rea

ctor

EU F

ast R

eact

or

Pulve

rised

Coa

l (PC

)

PC &

Pos

t com

b.CC

S

PC &

Oxy

fuel

CCS

Inte

grat

ed G

asifi

catio

n

Int.

Gasif

icatio

n &

CCS

Com

bine

d Cyc

le (C

C)

CC &

Pos

t com

b. C

CS

Inte

rnal

Com

b.




Conclusions• Health effects due to air pollution and global warming impacts dominate current estimates

of external costs.• External environmental costs may be substantial but large variety between technologies

and sites. Good technologies including advanced fossil have rather low pollution costs. • Uncertainties are large but ranking of technologies is relatively robust. • External costs of nuclear and renewables are low; external costs of natural gas are

moderate; external costs of coal and oil are highest.• Internalisation of external costs is economically and socially justified. It leads to more

efficient overall economy.• Total cost as a measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems

favors nuclear but estimates for nuclear are controversial and are only partially accepted.• Social aspects of energy systems are represented to limited extent by current estimates of

external (and total) costs.• Broader inclusion of social factors in the multi-criteria decision analysis framework favours

renewables and is a challenge for future nuclear.

Documents

Session 2 no 5 Hirschberg.ppt - IAEA · 2009. 9. 25. · Title: Session 2 no 5 Hirschberg.ppt [Compatibility Mode] Created Date: 9/24/2009 2:00:45 PM