“Services for older people – does demand match need in

Nottingham City?”September 2011

Older People in Nottingham City

• Only 11.5% of population compared to 16% nationally

• 37,000 people over 64 years; 5000 are 85 and over

• Increase by 6% by 2020; over 84’s by 17%• 900 in carehomes, 50% age 85 and over• 35% live alone; 54% for over 84’s• 92% white compared to 81% general population

Where they live

Lots of bungalows here

Groups M, O account for 30% of the older population – high welfare needGroups G, J, K and L account for 37% - relatively well off

Mosaic GroupResidents Age 65 and over

% Residents All Ages % Index

B Residents of small and mid-sized towns with strong local roots 1956 5.3 7855 2.5 215

C Wealthy people living in the most sought after neighbourhoods 626 1.7 3118 1 174

D Successful professionals living in suburban or semi-rural homes 1389 3.8 6244 2 192

E Middle income families living in moderate suburban semis 2332 6.3 17273 5.4 117

F Couples with young children in comfortable modern housing 169 0.5 1899 0.6 77

G Young, well-educated city dwellers 3555 9.6 70665 22.2 44

H Couples and young singles in small modern starter homes 874 2.4 9310 2.9 81

I Lower income workers in urban terraces in often diverse areas 2870 7.8 38058 11.9 65

J Owner occupiers in older-style housing in ex-industrial areas 3173 8.6 17050 5.4 161

K Residents with sufficient incomes in right-to-buy social houses 5546 15.1 38065 11.9 126

L Active elderly people living in pleasant retirement locations 1388 3.8 2765 0.9 434

M Elderly people reliant on state support 5460 14.8 11100 3.5 425

N Young people renting flats in high density social housing 2033 5.5 26015 8.2 68

O Families in low-rise social housing with high levels of benefit need 5371 14.6 63463 19.9 73

U Unclassified 101 0.3 5810 1.8 15

36843 100 318690 100

Income Deprivation affecting older peopleOlder population

20% of the older population live in most deprived quintile. 24% of the older population live in the most affluent quintile40% Under 65 pop live in most deprived IMD quintileInverse relationship -- % OP increases , IMD decreases

Health Need Care Need

Weak correlation R2 = 0.24

Service use – means tested

Care Need

Quite strong correlation R2 = 0.45

Service use – means tested

Health Need

Correlation R2 = 0.33

Service use – means testedOP Deprivation

Correlation R2 = 0.34

Next steps

• Identify areas of high resource use – can services be better integrated for these people?

• Health resource– how much do OP cost?– model life cycle – are all costs associated with

near death?

• Does increase in older population mean higher costs or deferred costs?