Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)

7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)

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www.whiteboardadvisors.com

EducationInsider:TrackingMeasures,

CommonCoreStatus&Momentum,

andHigherEducation

September2013

www.whiteboardadvisors.com

1


2/26

WhyEducationInsider?

INTRODUCTION

TheValue

Weharnessthe

wisdomof

wellconnected

influentialsto

provide

insights

andpredict

policyoutcomes

forstakeholders

inthe

education

debate.

Whiteboard Advisors is a policyoriented consulting practice. We provide

proprietary research and strategic support to investors and philanthropicdonors, government leaders, and entrepreneurs who seek unparalleledunderstanding of the education policy and business environment.

Education Insider helps those who need quality information to make highstakes decisions about the direction of federal policy. Education Insider

combines the wisdom of informed crowds with expert analysis to offerunparalleled information, analysis, and forecasting on a range of federaleducation policy issues and likely outcomes.

Education Insider conducts an anonymous survey of a small group of keyeducation influentials (policymakers, thought leaders, and association

heads) to get their thoughts and commentary about the context of thecurrent debate and possible outcomes. This helps surface the underlyingdynamics that can affect the trajectory of policies, positively or negatively,and go deeper than the conventional wisdom and rhetoric.

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3/26

WhyEducationInsider?

INTRODUCTION

TheProcess

Education Insider is a monthly report that cuts through the noise and

provides realtime insights on national education policy trends, debates,

and issuesfrom the handful of decision makers that are really driving the

process. We combine a survey of key education influencers with our own

analysis to provide a unique perspective on the current state of debate.

Who Are The Insiders?

Influential leaders who are shaping federal education reform, includingindividuals who have or are currently serving as key policy and political

insiders, such as:

Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Education

leaders;

Current and former Congressional staff;

State education leaders including state school chiefs and former

governors; and

Leaders of major education organizations, think tanks and other key

influentials

SurveyInsiders

AnalyzeResults

ReportInsights

DriveAction

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4/26

Continuingarecenttrend,InsidersremainconcernedaboutthePARCCCommonCoreassessmentconsortiumwhilegivingtheSBACconsortiumhighermarks.

InsidersremainunconvincedthatESEAwillbereauthorizedanytimebeforelate2014,largelyduetomorepressingmattersfacingCongress,suchasthedebtceilingandthecrisisinSyria.InsiderscontinuetogiveCongressandtheAdministrationlowmarksoneducationpolicy.

InsidersthinkitislikelythatmorestateswilldropoutoftheCommonCoreassessmentconsortia,andseeconcernsaboutcosts,politics,andtechnologicalchallengesaskeyissues.

Amajority

of

Insiders

do

not

think

that

the

Gainful

Employmentrulemakingpanelwillreachaconsensusrule,butfarfewerthinkthatlegislativeactionwillblockimplementationofaGainfulEmploymentregulation.

73%ofInsidersthinkthatPARCC

isonthewrongtrackwhilejust

44%feelthesamewayabout

SBAC.

79%ofInsidersbelievethatmore

stateswilldropoutofthe

CommonCoretestingconsortia

in2013,and90%areconvinced

thenumberofparticipating

stateswill

drop

in

2014.

61%ofInsidersfeelthatthe

opponentsoftheCommonCore

andrelatedassessmentshave

themomentumrightnow.

97%ofInsidersdonotthinkthat

Congresswillapprovethose

aspectsofObamashighered

planthatrequirelegislative

approval.

ExecutiveSummary

INTRODUCTION

4


5/26

TableofContents

INTRODUCTION

5

TRACKING MEASURES 6

COMMON CORE STATUS & MOMENTUM 12

HIGHER EDUCATION 19


6/26

ApprovalRatingsRemainRelativelyStableforbothCongressand

Administration

6

Question:DoyouapproveordisapproveofthewayCongress/theAdministrationishandlingeducation?

JobApprovalonEducation

10 5 618 14

6 0 08 4

125 4

12 12 8 14 1215

7

90

95 9482

86

94 100100

92

9688

95 9688

88

92

86

88

85

93

7%

93%

Approve Disapprove

40 45

59

35

5750 52

45

50

46

50 50 4846 46 38 33 46 30 37

60 5541

65

4350 48

55 50 54 50 50 52 54 5462 67

5470

63

37%

63%

Approve Disapprove

Congress

Administration

TRACKINGMEASURES


7/26

TimingofESEAReauthorization

TRACKINGMEASURES

7

Question: AboutwhendoyoubelieveafinalESEAbillwillbesignedintolaw?

7

DateofInsiderSurvey12%

33%

10% 12% 18% 8% 15%3%

8%3%

29%

5%

10%

20%18%

9%

10%

8% 4% 4%

8%

4%

24% 33%

35%

32%36%

33% 20%

29%

25%

8%

19%

10%

4%

11% 17%

35%29%

40%32%

29%

50%55%

63%71%

92%

77%

87%81%

85%80%

Apr.'12 Jun.'12 July'12 Aug.'12 Sept.

'12

Nov.'12Dec.'12 Jan.'13 Feb.'13 Mar.

'13

Apr.'13May'13 Jun.'13 July'13 Sept.

2013

TimingofESEAReauthorization

ByDec.2013 ByJun.2014 ByDec.2014 AfterJan.2015

Insidersremain

steadfastin

thinkingthat

ESEAwillnotbe

reauthorized

untilsometime

afterJanuary

2015.


8/26

TRACKINGMEASURES

8

InsiderInsight:ESEAReauthorizationTiming

Why?

AnybandwidthCongresshasseemstobedevotedtorelitigatingthehealthcareact.

Theresnosenseofcompromiseandnoincentiveoneithersidetotrytocompromise.

ArneDuncanhassomangledfederaleducationatthispointthatitsgoingtotakeanew

administrationandsecretarytoreframethedebateandofferapathforward.

Noneofthereallykeyincentivestogetitdonearethererightnow.Congressrarelyactswithout

those.

Whoknowswhen;itisnotapriorityrightnow.

TherestofthisyearisshotwithSyria,debtceiling,andappropriationsandnextyearisan

electionyear.Additionally,thereisnoconsensusonwhattodo.

Harkindoesnthavethevotesforthefloor,andanycompromiselegislationbecomeslessand

lesslikelyasprimariesgetcloser.

Harkinisfinallygoneafterthatdate.

Thereisnowilltonegotiate.Plus,thenoneducationissues(e.g.,Syriaandthedebtceiling)will

ruletheday.

Harkinwillhaveretiredbythen.


9/26

Question:Aretheassessmentconsortiaontherighttrackorwrongtrack?

Aretheassessmentconsortiaonthe

righttrackorwrongtrack?

CommonCoreAssessments RightTrackorWrongTrack?

TRACKINGMEASURES

9

69%62%

52% 55% 48%

35% 30%22%

38%27% 27%

31% 38%49% 45% 52%

65%70%

78%

63%73% 73%

Sept.

'12

Nov.

'12

Dec.

'12

Jan.

'13

Feb.

'13

Mar.

'13

Apr.

'13

May

'13

Jun.

'13

July

'13

Sept.

'13

PARCC

RightTrack WrongTrack

33% 33% 29% 27% 23%30% 33% 26%

54%62%

56%

67% 67% 71% 73% 77%70% 67% 74%

46%38%

44%

Sept.

'12

Nov.

'12

Dec.

'12

Jan.

'13

Feb.

'13

Mar.

'13

Apr.

'13

May

'13

Jun.

'13

July

'13

Sept.

'13

SBAC

RightTrack WrongTrack


10/26

WhydoyoubelievePARCCandSBACareontherightorwrongtrack?

Thedeeperwegetintotheimplementationphase,theharderthisisgoingto

getfieldtesting,

double

testing,

cost,

making

accountability

decisions

in

atimelyfashion(becausethetestsaretobedeliveredrelativelylateinthe

year),etc.aregoingtomakethislessandlessattractiveforstatesand

districts.SBAChasaleguponPARCContheimplementationside,butthiswill

beaveryhardandlongroadforbothconsortiathatpolicymakersin

Washington(and

in

the

states

to

be

fair)

did

not

pay

awhole

lot

of

attention

to.

Botharegettinglostintheweeds,andneitherisabletoaddressthegrowing

oppositiontothetests,particularlyfromstateandlocalteachersunions.

Thereare

alot

of

challenges

and

significant

risks...but

by

all

accounts

they

arebuildinggoodtests.

InsiderInsight:RightTrack/WrongTrack

TRACKINGMEASURES

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11/26

WhydoyoubelievePARCCandSBACareontherightorwrongtrack?

SBACisinbettershapebutbothconsortiaarestrugglingandpeopleare

talkingpretty

openly

about

Plan

B

options.

FL

seems

likely

to

bail

out

of

PARCC;thatwillbesignificantfromasignalingperspectiveandhavesome

practicalimplications.

OtherstateswatchedNewYorksurvivethePARCCandlargelytrustthe

informationasamorereliableindicatorofstudentknowledgeandskills.That

bodeswellforbothconsortiamovingforward.

ImconcernedthatPARCCisquicklylosingstateswiththepotentialtolose

more.Ithastobemorethancostissuesandthepoliticalfootballofwhether

tokeepthestandards.Aretheynotworkingcloselywiththeirstates?

InsiderInsight:RightTrack/WrongTrack(continued)

TRACKINGMEASURES

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Question:DoyouexpectmorestatestodropoutoftheCommonCoreAssessmentConsortiain2013?2014?

MoreStatesDroppingoutoftheCommonCoreAssessment

ConsortiaThis

Year?

COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM

12

79%90%

21%

10%

2013 2014

0%10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

WillMoreStatesDropOut?

YesNo

Almostall

Insidersbelieve

thatmore

states

willdropoutof

thePARCCand

SBACassessment

consortiathisyear(andeven

morebelieveit

will

happen

next

year).


13/26

Whyorwhynot?

Cost,lowscores,anditbeingREALLYhardtoimplementsuchalargescale

testis

likely

to

scare

states

away.

(Oh

yeah,

and

the

politicsalmost

forgot

aboutthat.)

IthinktherewillbeaconcertedefforttoattachCCSSbyanyandallmeans

becauseofbudgets,becauseofconcernfromtherightandtheleft,and

becausetheoriginalimplementation,inretrospect,wasrushed.Itisalittle

likeatreeinthetropicsitgrewhigh,buthasnorootsystem.

[Itsa]collectiveaction,PrisonersDilemmaproblem.Individually,stateshave

lotsofreasontodropout(money,politics,habit,etc.)buttheydallbenefitif

theystayedin.Butthemorestatesthatdropout,thelessvalueithasto

othersto

stay

in.

There

were

two

possible

equilibriavirtually

all

in

or

mostly

out.Wereclearlytrendingtowardthelatter.

InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?


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14/26

Confluenceofincreasedcosts,ongoingtechnicalchallenges,andpolitics.

Ithinkthereisstillsomeunrest,confusion,uncertaintyinstatesabout

implementationoftheassessments,howtohandlenew,lowerscores driven

primarilyby

extremes

on

the

right

and

the

left.

As

the

day

to

day

work

continues,teachersgainmoreconfidence,andaconcertedefforttobluntthe

politicalattacksmatures,thiswillsettledown.

MyguessisthatSmarterBalancedwillkeeptheirstates.ItsPARCCthatIm

worriedabout.

Thetestsarentthatgood,politicalpressureisrising,andscoreswilladdto

thepressuretoleave.DuncansCaliforniastatementisnthelpfuleither.

Thereisanelectioncoming.

Inevitable.

And

realistic.

But

thats

ok.

InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?(continued)


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15/26

Becausestatelegislatorshaveverynarrowviewsandgetbadinformation.

Ascostsandadministrationandscoringproblemsbegintoreartheirugly

heads,morestateswillseelittleincentivetoworkingwithaconsortium.

Itis

likely

that

states

will

see

more

backlash

if

teachers

dont

get

the

supports

theyneedtoimplementthestandards.Politiciansmaycapitalizeonteacher

frustrationaselectionsgetcloser.

2014iswhentherubbermeetstheroadandpeoplewhodidnthavethe

foresightto

drop

out

beforehand

or

never

sign

up

for

this

adventure

finally

realizewhattheyvegottenthemselvesinto.

Itisinevitable,sincethetestsarelikelytocausealotofangstandtheyare

costly.

Some

SHOULD

drop

out.

For

various

reasons,

they

arent

serious

about

CommonCoreand/oraboutassessmentsandaccountabilitysystemsbasedon

it.

InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?(continued)


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17/26

Whyorwhynot?

Atleastinthemedia,thatswhatitlookslike.

Inpolitics,youlookforintensity.Theantishaveit.

Imnotsureeitherreallyhasmomentum.Somemorestateswilldropoutoftheconsortia,and

maybesomestatesthatevenbackoutofthestandards.ButIthinkCommonCorewillmove

forwardinmostplaces.

Notthattheyrelettingthefactsgetintheway.Someoftheobjectionsarenotremotelyaligned

withreality.

Finsto

the

left,

fins

to

the

right.

The

left,

including

state

and

local

teachers

unions,

are

attacking

thehighstakestestandthefocusonscores.Therightdistruststhefederaltakeoverofpublic

education.Itisatightspot.

Theopponentsbecausetheirargumentiseasier.But...itwillchangeatsomepointwhenthe

questionturnstohavingagoodtest.Aretheregoodalternatives?

Theproponents

are

still

in

pretty

good

shape;

alot

of

states

have

adopted

[the

standards]

and

willimplementeveniftheyjumpshipontheassessments.Buttheopponentshavegonefroma

marginalpresencetohavingrealimpactanditsunclearwhatthepushbackisfromthe

proponents.KathleenPorterwritesgreatblogpostsontheactualfactshere,butthisisnot

turningonthefactsorwhatbloggersthink.

InsiderInsight:CommonCoreandAssessments Proponentsvs.

Opponents


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18/26

Whyorwhynot?

Evenifafewmorestatesdropoutoftheassessmentconsortia,momentumto

implementisstrongandgrowinginthemajorityofstates.

Istillgiveaslightedgetotheopponents,becausemostofthemediacoveragewesee

isnegative.ButIdohaveasenseitisdyingdownabit.

StillstrongwhenthecaseismadeandelectedGovernorsareholdingtheirground.

Theopponentshaveturbulence.Theproponentshavetheinertiaofcurrentpolicy.

Momentummay

not

be

the

right

metaphor.

NewYorkCitytookthetestsandwaslargelysuccessfulwithmessaging.Theresno

reasonwhyotherswontbeabletofollowsuit.

ItlookslikeWorldWarIinitsearlyyears.Ijustdontthinktheoutcomewillbeas

good.LotsofdeathsandnoAlliedvictory.

Neither.Momentumcantbebuiltonlies.Idothinktheproponentsarebeginningto

gettheirinformationoutthere.

OpposingthefederalgovernmentalwayshasmoremomentumintheObamaera.

InsiderInsight:CommonCoreandAssessments Proponentsvs.

Opponents(continued)


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19/26

Question:Onascaleof1to5,howlikelydoyouthinkitisthatCongresswillapprovethePresidentsplantoratecollegesbasedonopportunityand

outcomesandrequirestudentstocompletetheircoursesbeforereceivinggrantsforthenextsemester?

CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigherEducationPlans

HIGHER EDUCATION

19

AlmostallInsiders

thinkthatthe

components

of

Obamashigher

educationplanthat

requireCongressional

approvalspecifically

ratingcolleges

on

opportunityand

outcomesandtying

studentgrantsto

course

completionwillnotcometo

fruition.

38%

59%

3%

0%

0%

1 Definitelynotgoingtohappen

2 Unlikelytohappen

3 Maybegoingtohappen

4 Likelytohappen

5 Definitelygoingtohappen

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

HowlikelyisitthatCongresswillapprove

thePresidentshighereducationplan?


20/26

Whyorwhynot?

IthinkCongresscanprobablyagreeonnamingsomepostoffices.Andthatspretty

muchit.

Itwillnegativelyimpactfartoomanyschools,particularlyHBCUsandHSIs.

DonothingCongress,especiallythecloserwegetto2014elections.

Iusedtothinkthatunionswerethemostpowerfuleducationlobbyatthestatelevel.

Nope.Collegepresidents.Theywontlikethis,theylltelltheirgovernorsandfederal

reps.And

it

will

die.

ThePOTUSwillneedtodoasmuchaspossiblethroughexecutiveaction.

Mostuniversitiesespeciallyprivateoneswillcontinuetobeopposedtoanysortof

accountability.Andtheyarepoliticallypowerfulentities.However,youarestartingto

seecracksintheunifiedfrontinstitutionsandtheirassociationstypicallypresentso

wewillseerealconversationsthisgoround,andbiggerchangeinthenext

reauthorization.

InsiderInsight:CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigher

EducationPlans

HIGHER EDUCATION

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21/26

Whyorwhynot?

Toomuchontheirplateandproposalistoocontroversial;needstobeworkedon.

Does

anyone

really

believe

that

the

public

thinks

the

federal

government

is

the

best

assessorofcollegequality?AsmuchastheintelligentsiamaydislikeU.S.Newsand

WorldReport,ithasabrandthatthepublicknowsandrespects.Further,the

AdministrationscollegeratingproposalisNCLBonsteroids.

EDwilldowhateveritcandowithoutCongresssapproval.Anythingthatrequires

Congressionalapproval

will

need

to

look

very

different

than

the

Presidents

plan

to

passtheHouse.

WhenwillthisAdministrationfinallygetittheycantoutsmarteveryoneandthey

cantlegislateperfectdecisionsforeveryone?Itmightjustbethatwewillalwayshave

goodschools,averageschools,andpoorschools.Andunfortunately,noteveryonewill

choosegood

or

even

average.

Setting

up

some

system

that

allows

the

federal

governmenttopreventpeoplefromdoinganythingconsideredbadishubrisinthe

extremeandamisunderstandingofhowchoice,forbetterorworse,inhigher

educationhasmadeoursystem,onaverage,thebestintheworld.

ItsanotherdumbWashingtonbasedsolutionthataddsnovalue.

InsiderInsight:CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigher

EducationPlans

(continued)

HIGHER EDUCATION

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22/26

Question:Willthegainfulemploymentrulemakingpanelreachaconsensusrule?

GainfulEmploymentRuleMaking

HIGHER EDUCATION

22

MostInsidersdo

notthinkthat

thegainful

employment

rulemaking

panelwillreach

aconsensus

rule.

18%

52%

30%

Willthegainfulemploymentrulemaking

panelreachaconsensusrule?

Yes

No

Don'tknow


23/26

Whyorwhynot?

Thegaponhowtoaddressthisistoowide.

Itsalways

easier

to

agree

amongst

friends

youve

selected

to

debate.

Thedepartmentdoesntwantconsensusandtheywilljust

regulate

anyway.

InsiderInsight:GainfulEmploymentRuleMaking

HIGHER EDUCATION

23


24/26

Question:DoyoubelievelegislativeactionwillblockimplementationofaGainfulEmploymentregulation?

LegislativeActionandGainfulEmploymentRegulations

HIGHER EDUCATION

24

Onlyafew

Insidersbelieve

thatlegislative

actionwillblock

implementation

ofaGainful

Employment

regulation.

4%

57%

39%

Willlegislativeactionblockimplementation?

Yes

No

Don'tknow


25/26

Whyorwhynot?

Dependsontherule.

Right

now,

legislative

action

may

be

an

oxymoron. Ianswereddontknowbecauseitdependsontoomanyvariablesrightnow:What

doestherulelooklike,doesitcomethroughtheprocessorfromEDafterconsensus

fails.Butaswesawlasttimethisisanissuewithsomelocalimplicationssoabancould

getthroughtheHouseandwithsomeDemvotes,theSenateistougherbutnotoutof

thequestion

at

allespecially

if

its

arider

on

alarger

must

pass

bill.

CongresscantagreeonmajoritemslikeSyriaorfundingthegovernment.Icant

imagineanissuelikeblockingtheregbeingtheonethingaboutwhichthetwohouses

cometogether.

ThisispossiblebutitdependswhatisfinalizedinOctober.

HarkinwouldneverallowtheFoxxbill(oranypartofit)topasstheSenate.

NochancetheSenateorPresidentagreetotheHousesregulatorypausebill.

No,Democratswillalwaystrytodestroytheprivatesectorandtheyloathetheideaof

anyonebesidestheircroniesmakingaprofit.

InsiderInsight:LegislativeActionandGainfulEmployment

Regulations

HIGHER EDUCATION

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26/26

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26

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Documents

Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)