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Strong growth expected in Revenue & EBITDA… …Driven by entry into US and China markets
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Advangen Midkine R&D tax credit/grants Other income
CAGR 49%
28%
69%
3%
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Japan
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Active Comments
MTP3 0.095% Potent FGF5 Inhibitor (7x more potent than other actives) - plant extract
Sanguisorba officinalis (SO) root extract Potent FGF5 inhibitor - flower extract
Swertia chiratra Antioxidant and anti-inflammatory plant extract
Rosa multiflora Potent FGF5 inhibitor - plant extract
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Figure 9: Advangen Historical performance Figure 10: evolis historical performance - QVC JAPAN
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Australia
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Australia (LHS) Japan (LHS) Gross Profit % (RHS)
CAGR 46%
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CAGR 41%
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Sep-18 Oct-18 Mar-19
évolis® mask évolis® Dry Shampoo évolis® eyelash growth
évolis® UV protector évolis® eyebrow growth
Total SKU's in range 16 17 19
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Geographies
USA China Japan Australia
Pharmacy Jul-19 Jun-19 Existing channels
QVC NA Dec-18 Mar-15 New channels
Premium retail Sep-18 Mar-19
E-commerce Sep-18 Jul-19 Oct-18
Derma/Salons Jul-19 Oct-18
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US Premium retailers - existing partnerships
Store network CDY current stores FY19 - BOEQe
Neiman Marcus 45 5 20
Soft Surroundings 100 11 20
Bloomingdales 60 1 10
Total 205 17 50
Potential partnerships
Sephora 360
Ulta 980
Macys 350
Total 1690
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FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
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China potential BOEQe
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FY20F FY21F FY22F FY23F
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Revenue Gross Profit
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Australia Date Comments
Pharmacy Sep-18 Expansion via évolis professional range in pharmacies and beauty retailers
New products Sep-18 Launch of Fillerina in pharmacies and beauty retailers
From Nov-18 Launch of évolis dry shampoo, UV protector,mask, eye lash growth, and eye brow products
E-commerce Jul-18 Launch of new site with strengthened digital marketing and customer services capabilities
Japan Date Comments
Pharmacy Sep-19 Launch évolis professional range. Target 10,000 independent pharmacies
New products From Nov-18 Launch of évolis professional dry shampoo, UV protector, mask, eye lash growth, and eye brow products
E-commerce Jul-18 Launch of new site with strengthened digital marketing and customer services capabilities
Salons Nov-18 évolis professional launch
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Figure 22: Global Haircare market…CAGR 2.6% Figure 23: Global Organic haircare market…CAGR 11.4% 2018-2023
Source: Statistica Source: Beauty store business
Figure 24: Global Hair loss market size…CAGR 7% Figure 25: Hair loss market segmented by treatment type
source: Global market insights Source: Kerastem
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6.7B
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Oral Topical Other
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12 Months Forward
Code Company Name Market Cap (US$) EV (US$) Revenue (US$) EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E EPS growth ROE EBITDA % Debt/EquityDomestic Peers
AHY.AX Asaleo Care Ltd 309.9m 531.6m 458.1m 1.3x 9.0x 14.9x 3.0% 11.3% 21.0% 103.8%
BKL.AX Blackmores Ltd 1952.0m 1991.2m 445.5m 3.5x 19.5x 30.4x 18.0% 41.2% 19.3% 44.6%
BDA.AX BOD Australia Ltd 18.7m 15.2m .9m - - - - - - -
BWX.AX BWX Ltd 367.5m 390.4m 111.2m 2.8x 10.5x 15.9x 20.4% 11.1% 26.8% 18.8%
SKN.AX Skin Elements Ltd 1.4m .9m .6m
Mean 529.9m 585.9m 203.3m 2.5x 13.0x 20.4x 14% 21% 22% 56%
Median 309.9m 390.4m 111.2m 2.8x 10.5x 15.9x 18% 11% 21% 45%
Min 1.4m .9m .6m 1.3x 9.0x 14.9x 3% 11% 19% 19%
Max 1952.0m 1991.2m 458.1m 3.5x 19.5x 30.4x 20% 41% 27% 104%
12 Months Forward
Code Company Name
Market Cap
(US$) EV (US$) Revenue (US$) EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E EPS growth ROE EBITDA % Debt/Equity
CL Colgate-Palmolive Co 56.6b 64.1b 15.5b 4.0x 13.9x 2106% 6% -652% 28% -
COTY.K Coty Inc 9.0b 17.0b 9.4b 1.8x 10.9x 1549% 23% 5% 15% 85%
EL Estee Lauder Inc 50.7b 51.4b 13.7b 3.5x 16.8x 2816% 11% 37% 21% 76%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 358.7b 378.4b 76.5b 4.6x 12.1x 1595% 5% 34% 36% 57%
OREP.PA L'Oreal SA 129.4b 129.5b 31.2b 4.0x 17.6x 2683% 7% 15% 22% 5%
NUS NU Skin Enterprises Inc 4.4b 4.5b 2.3b 1.7x 10.4x 1980% 15% 27% 15% 55%
PG Procter & Gamble Co 205.9b 228.3b 66.8b 3.4x 12.9x 1855% 7% 21% 26% 60%
REV Revlon Inc 1.2b 4.2b 2.7b 1.6x 15.7x - 69% - 9% -
4911.T Shiseido Co Ltd 27.5b 26.8b 8.9b 2.6x 16.1x 3501% 22% 18% 12% 33%
UL Unilever PLC 161.2b 190.9b 64.4b 3.1x 14.5x 1962% 10% 55% 20% 175%
Mean 100.5b 109.5b 29.1b 3.0x 14.1x 22.3x 18% -49% 21% 68%
Median 53.7b 57.7b 14.6b 3.3x 14.2x 19.8x 11% 21% 20% 59%
Min 1.2b 4.2b 2.3b 1.6x 10.4x 15.5x 5% -652% 9% 5%
Max 358.7b 378.4b 76.5b 4.6x 17.6x 35.0x 69% 55% 36% 175%
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.5
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FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A
A$
m
Revenue
Grant Income
R&D expense
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Date Licensor Licensee Therapeutic area Indication Product/ Technology
Biodollar
Value
($m)
Upfront Fee
($m)Stage
1Q16 BluePrint Medicines Roche Discovery/Technology Immuno-oncology Selective kinase medicines 1010 45 Pre
1Q16 Momenta Mylan Autoimmune Biosimilars 245 45 Pre
2Q16 Eleven Biotherapeutics Roche Opthalmic
EBI-031 and all other IL-6
antagonist antibody technology
owned by EBIO
270 7.5 Pre
2Q16 Zymeworks GlaxoSmithKline Discovery/Technology Multiple Tx AreasAzymetric™ drug discovery
platform908 36 Pre
2Q16 WAVE Life Sciences Pfizer Discovery/Technology Metabolic DiseasesStereopure drug development
platform,911 40 Pre
2Q16 Intellia Therapeutics Regeneron Discovery/Technology Multiple Tx Areas CRISPR/Cas platform. - 125 Pre
2Q16 Heptares Allergan CNSNeuological Disease (incl.
Alzheimers)
Subtype-selective muscarinic
receptor agonists3290 125 Pre
2Q16 Moderna Merck & Co Discovery/Technology Personalized Cancer Vaccines - 200 Pre
3Q16 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Tarveda Discovery/Technology HSP90 drug-conjugate platform 249 163 Pre
4Q16 Cerulean Novartis Discovery/TechnologyDynamic Tumor Targeting™
technology- 5 Pre
4Q16 BioInvent Pfizer Discovery/Technology Immuno-regulatory antibodies 500 10 Pre
4Q16 Selecta Spark Therapeutics Discovery/Technology Gene therapySynthetic Vaccine Particles
technology - 10 Pre
4Q16 Nuevolution Almirall Discovery/TechnologyDermatology Diseases &
Psoriatic ArthritisRORγt Inhibitors 533 13.2 Pre
4Q16 Enterome BMS Discovery/Technology Immuno-oncology
Microbiome-derived biomarkers,
drug targets and bioactive
moleculesas potential companion
diagnostics and therapeutics for
cancer
- 15 Pre
4Q16 Merus Incyte Discovery/Technology
Biclonics technology platform,
Bispecific antibodies (incl. two IO
programs
- 120 Pre
1Q17 Arbutus Biopharma Alexion Discovery/Technology Messenger RNA Candidate 82.5 7.5 Pre
1Q17 Pieris Pharma Servier Cancer PRS-332 + 4 bispecific programs 1173.3 31.3 Pre
1Q17 Merus Incyte Discovery/TechnologyBiclonics® technology
platformbi-specific antibodies 3000 120 Pre
1Q17 CytomX Therapeutics BMS Discovery/Technology Probody platform 3784 200 Pre
3Q17 Bavarian Nordic J&J Discovery/Technology HBV MVA-BN technology 879 10 Pre
3Q17 Ablynx Sanofi Discovery/Technology Autoimmune nanobodies 2857 27 Pre
3Q17 Halozyme BMS Discovery/TechnologyENHANZE® drug-delivery
technology1865 105 Pre
4Q17 Zymeworks J&J Discovery/TechnologyNext Generation BiSpecific
Antibodies1452 50 Pre
4Q17 CureVac Eli Lilly Discovery/TechnologyFive potential cancer vaccine
products1795 50 Pre
1Q18 C4X Indivior UK CNSoral orexin-1 receptor antagonist
program234 10 Pre
1Q18 Teneobio Tesaro Discovery/Technology Oncologymulti-specific antibodies for up to
six targets310 10 Pre
1Q18 Ablynx Sanofi Discovery/TechnologyImmune-mediated
inflammatory diseasenanbodies 2436 23 Pre
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Cellmid Limited 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
30-June ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m)
Operating Revenue 4.5 5.6 10.0 16.1 23.3
Other Revenue 0.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.2
Total Revenue 4.7 6.8 11.1 17.4 23.6
Operating Costs 8.7 9.9 12.8 14.8 19.1
EBITDA (Inc.Assoc) -4.0 -3.1 -1.7 2.5 4.4
D&A -4.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
EBIT -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 2.4 4.2
Net Interest Expense -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Pre-Tax Profit -4.4 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3
Tax Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT Normalised -4.5 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3
Pref Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
One-Offs after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT Reported -4.5 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3
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Cellmid Limited 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
($m) 30-Jun 30-Jun 30-Jun 30-Jun 30-Jun
Cash 4.0 1.6 3.4 5.6 8.3
Inventory 2.1 1.2 4.5 5.6 8.2
Receivables 0.4 1.0 3.0 3.8 4.9
Other 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total Current Assets 6.6 4.2 11.2 15.3 21.7
LT Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fixed Assets 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Intangibles 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Other (inc FITB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non Current Assets 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Total Assets 8.5 6.7 13.6 17.6 23.78.5 6.7 13.6 17.6 23.7
Trade & Other Payables 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.8
Borrowings 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Current 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Liabilities 3.8 3.7 2.5 4.0 5.8
Long Term Debt 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Other LT Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-Current Liabilities 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Total Liabilities 4.1 4.9 3.7 5.2 7.04.1 4.9 3.7 5.2 7.0
Net Assets 4.4 1.9 9.9 12.4 16.7
($m) 30-June 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Revenue 10.0 16.1 23.3 30.3 36.1 Revenue Growth 60.6% 44.8% 29.9% 19.2%
EBITDA -1.7 2.5 4.4 7.5 10.3Growth Rate 252.9% 74.7% 68.5% 38.3% EBITDA Margin -16.6% 15.8% 19.0% 24.7% 28.6%
Tax Paid - - - - (3.1) P&L Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0%
Inc Working Capital (4.3) (0.4) (1.9) (1.3) (1.1) W/C as a Pct Sales 43.3% 2.2% 8.0% 4.2% 3.1%
Capital Expenditure (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Capex as a Pct Sales 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Free CashFlow (6.1) 2.1 2.5 6.1 6.0
Date: 07-Sep-18 30-Jun-19 30-Jun-20 30-Jun-21 30-Jun-22 30-Jun-23Discount Factor: 0.97 0.89 0.81 0.74 0.67
Present Value of Free CashFlow (5.9) 1.8 2.0 4.5 4.0
Terminal Year CashFlowTerminal Value 79.7
Present Value of Terminal Value 51.1
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 6.4 Present Value Of Terminal Cash Flow 51.1 Assumptions
Other - Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%Less: Net Debt (Cash) (6.8) Long Term Risk Free Rate 4.0%
Equity Risk Premium 6.0%Total Net Present Value Equity 64.3 Beta 1.30
WACC 9.7%Add: midkine pre-clinical market value 27.0 Advangen plus midkine 91.3
Number of Shares (Million) 86.3
Equity value per share $1.06
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Stock Details
Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.57 Shares on Issue 86.3
Valuation $1.06 52 Week Low $0.35 Market Cap $34.5m
Share price $0.40 Avg Mthly Value $0.4m Enterprise Value $27.7m
Upside/downside 165% Financial Year End 30-June Free Float ~72%
Profit & Loss ($m) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Ratio Analysis FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Operating Revenue 4.5 5.6 10.0 16.1 23.3 Revenue Growth 39.3% 46.5% 62.6% 56.2% 35.9%
Other Revenue 0.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 EBITDA Growth 27.6% -24.1% 45.9% 252.9% 74.7%
Total Revenue 4.7 6.8 11.1 17.4 23.6 EBIT Growth 26.1% -21.7% 43.8% 227.2% 80.6%
Operating Costs -8.7 -9.9 -12.8 -14.8 -19.1 NPAT Growth 27.8% -16.6% 48.8% 224.8% 80.5%
EBITDA (Inc.Assoc) -4.0 -3.1 -1.7 2.5 4.4
D&A -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 EBITDA Margin -89.9% -54.3% -16.6% 15.8% 19.0%
EBIT -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 2.4 4.2 EBIT Margin -93.4% -58.3% -18.4% 14.6% 18.2%
Net Interest Expense -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Tax Rate -0.8% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pre-Tax Profit -4.4 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3 NPAT Margin -99.4% -66.0% -19.0% 14.8% 18.5%
Tax Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt -1.8 1.6 -2.2 -4.4 -7.1
NPAT Normalised -4.5 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3 Total Debt 2.2 3.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Pref Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current Debt / Total Debt 85.4% 63.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
One-Offs after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT Reported -4.5 -3.7 -1.9 2.4 4.3 Net Debt / Equity 0.0% 84.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity 0.0% 45.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Balance Sheet ($m) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E EBIT Interest Cover -17.9 -7.5 -29.8 Large Large
Cash 4.0 1.6 3.4 5.6 8.3 Total Debt / EBITDA -0.2 -0.8 -1.4 0.9 0.5
Inventory 2.1 1.2 4.5 5.6 8.2
Receivables 0.4 1.0 3.0 3.8 4.9 EBITDA Cash Conversion 119% 164% 397% 48% 59%
Other 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 NPAT Cash Conversion 94% 124% 323% 91% 61%
Current Assets 6.6 4.2 11.2 15.3 21.7 Free Cashflow (FCF) -4.1 -4.6 -5.7 2.2 2.7
PPE 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 FCF / Operating Cashflow 101% 105% 102% 96% 96%
Intangible Assets 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital / Sales 38.1% 21.7% 28.4% 32.3% 27.1%
Non-Current Assets 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 Capex / Sales 1% 4% 1% 1% 0%
Total Assets 8.5 6.7 13.6 17.6 23.7 Depreciation / Sales 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex / Depreciation 101% 265% 0% 0% 0%
Payables 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.8
Interest Bearing Liabs 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT Margin -93.4% -58.3% -18.4% 14.6% 18.2%
Other 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Burden (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Current Liabilities 3.8 3.7 2.5 4.0 5.8 Tax Burden (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Interest Bearing Liabs 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Asset Turnover (x) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROA -56.3% -49.0% -18.8% 15.3% 20.9%
Non-Current Liabilities 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Leverage (x) 1.7 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.4
Total Liabilities 4.1 4.9 3.7 5.2 7.0 ROE -98.4% -119.4% -32.3% 21.4% 29.7%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Contributed Equity 36.7 38.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 ROIC -105.8% -253.3% -23.1% 21.0% 34.0%
Reserves + Retained -32.3 -36.2 -38.1 -35.7 -31.4
Minorities & Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shares On Issue (million) 928.5 61.4 86.3 86.3 86.3
Total Equity 4.4 1.9 10.0 12.4 16.7 EFPOWA (million) 928.5 56.9 86.3 86.3 86.3
Cashflow Statement ($m) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Share Price: $0.40 FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Gross Operating Cash Flow -4.8 -5.0 -6.6 1.2 2.6 Normalised EPS (¢) -0.5 -6.6 -2.2 2.8 5.0
Net Interest -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 EPS Growth nm nm 66.2% 224.8% 80.5%
Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PE -83.1 -6.1 -18.1 14.5 8.0
Other 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 FCFPS (¢) -0.4 -8.1 -6.6 2.6 3.1
Net Operating Cash Flows -4.1 -4.4 -5.6 2.3 2.8 P/FCF -90.7 -4.9 -6.1 15.4 13.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payments for PPE 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 DPS (¢) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payments for Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net Investing Cash Flows 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Franking 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Share Issues 4.1 1.3 10.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS ($) $0.00 $0.03 $0.12 $0.14 $0.19
Net Borrowings 1.4 0.9 -2.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 84.50 13.25 3.46 2.79 2.07
Dividends Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTAPS ($) $0.00 $0.00 $0.10 $0.12 $0.18
Other 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 P/NTA nm nm 4.18 3.21 2.28
Net Financing Cash Flows 5.4 2.2 7.4 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA -6.2 -8.1 -15.0 9.8 5.6
Change in Cash Held 1.3 -2.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 EV/EBIT -5.9 -7.6 -13.5 10.6 5.9
Cash at Beginning of Period 2.7 4.0 1.6 3.4 5.6
Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (at Target $1.06) -16.5 -21.7 -40.1 26.2 15.0
Cash at End of Period 4.0 1.6 3.4 5.6 8.3 EV/EBIT (at Target $1.06) -15.9 -20.2 -36.0 28.3 15.7
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Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited, its employees, consultants and its associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Law may receive commissions, underwriting and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this document, and may from time to time hold interests in the securities referred to in this document. Blue Ocean Equities Pty Limited and associates may hold shares in Cellmid Ltd. (CDY) at the date of this report and this position may change at any time without notice.). On 31st July 2018, Blue Ocean Equities raised A$9m in new equity for CDY. The Analyst of this report does hold shares in Cellmid Ltd. (CDY).
