SEP Forecast Product:Data Description Only

Arik Posner1,2

(1) Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX

(2) currently at NASA/HQ, SMD-Heliophysics Div., Washington, DC

Research 2 Operations Workshop

10/16/2007 at CCMC/GSFC

Data Product

Forecasting Matrix

Pairs of Relativistic Electron Parameters (Slope, momentary Flux) Define Locus in Matrix

Color Coding from +1 Hour Proton Intensity

Incorporates All Data from 1996-2002

Tested in 2003-2007 Forecasting

2003-2007

24 Proton Events beyond Threshold

10/11 Prompt Events Forecast (91%) with 122 min

average warning time

9/13 Delayed Events Forecast (69%)

Overall: 79%, 195 min average warning time

13 False Warning Series (10 from Decreases)

False SEP Warning:

Forecast Proton Flux Factor ~100 Above Measured Flux

Series of flares/CMEs in March 17/18, 2003

Characteristics: Small, Well-connected, Short-duration Events

Cause: System (Matrix) is Calibrated Toward Long-lasting, More Intense

Events

Impact: Low, Most Events Remain Under Threshold Value, Could Cause

Problems if Threshold has to be Lowered

X1.5 Flare

W39

Peak at 19:05UT

SOHO/EIT 03/17/2003

Forecasting Output Data Description

Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5

Year Files; no Header, 1-min Resolution

30-50 MeV Proton Intensity [cm2 sr s MeV]-1

R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

Forecasting Output Data Description

Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5

Data Gaps (Status=0)

R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

Forecasting Output Data Description

Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5

Ramp after Data Gap (Status=1, no Electron Increase Parameter)

R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

Forecasting Output Data Description

Status Day of Year Minute Matrix x Year Hour Forec. Prot. Int. Matrix y 0 2004 1 8 9 -999999999 -32768 -32768 0 2004 1 8 10 -999999999 -32768 -32768 1 2004 1 8 11 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 12 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 13 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 14 -999999999 -32768 5 1 2004 1 8 15 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 16 0.00046734302 5 5 1 2004 1 8 17 0.00073199402 2 5

Entries with Forecast (Status=1, all Parameters)

R2O_COSTEP_YYYY.asc

Yearly Proton Flux Files

Day of Year Minute (Beg. Interv.)

Hour Forec. Prot. Int.

301 12 20 0.27523988

301 12 22 0.26133415

301 12 24 0.16526318

301 12 26 0.55599725

301 12 28 0.75050759

301 12 30 1.5127839

301 12 32 3.1351316

301 12 34 3.5216093

301 12 36 4.1761026

Data Entries: Date (Year in Filename), Proton Flux [cm2 sr s MeV]-1

Note: Entries in 2-min Resolution

flux_p_30_50_YYYY.asc