Sendai + SDG – Covid 19 = Resilience Planning for

Sustainable and Inclusive Growth

By Elmer Mercado, EnP, fpiep

07 November 2020,

29th PIEP National Convention

5 Current and Future

Global Urban Challenges

(UN Habitat, 2009)

Economic challenges

▪ impacts of global recession; unemployment/underemployment;

▪ increased in-migration to urban centers, increased poverty;

▪ increased pressure for social/economic/infrastructure services

--- 2050 – global food crisis due to massive losses/conversion of arable lands into settlements or other uses (Int’l Institute of Population) and WATER

--- loss of arable and open lands;

rate of conversion of agricultural land in developing countries =5-7% (depending on aggregate increase in farmlands , i.e. conversion of forestlands to agriculture); Global ave = 2%;

--rate of deforestation in the Philippines 100,000 hectares/yr. to give way to agricultural lands

5

Code Municipality Land Cover 2002 2012 Difference %

1

Antipolo City

Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 3,551.90 284.72 (3,267.18 -92

1 Built-up areas 1,193.21 6,999.27 5,806.06) 487

1 Coconut plantations 505.75 367.25 (138.50) -27

1 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 24,518.39 21,893.92 (2,624.47) -11

1 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent 2,972.47 4,977.45 2,004.98 67

1 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 2,527.22 746.32 (1,780.9)1 -70

2

Baras

Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 2,151.11 257.35 (1,893.7)6 -88

2 Built-up areas 227.78 227.78 100

2 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 1,999.27 1,957.45 (41.82 ) -2

2 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent 91.20 91.49 (0.30) 0

3

Rodriguez

Built-up areas 207.12 2,292.14 (2,085.02) 1007

3 Closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50 percent 3,369.40 2,616.35 (753.05) -22

3 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 9,988.45 19,224.79 9,236.35 92

3 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent 234.91 372.81 137.89 59

3 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 11,255.96 2,260.77 (8,995.20) -80

4

San Mateo

Built-up areas 142.85 2,642.43 2,499.59 1750

4 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 3,198.75 2,896.89 (301.86) -9

4 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 183.95 187.72 3.77 2

4 Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 2,201.50 (2,201.50) -100

5

Tanay

Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 1,119.27 373.82 (745.46) -67

5 Built-up areas 117.14 1,240.11 1,122.98 959

5 Coconut plantations 55.16 3.85 ( 51.31) -93

5 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 18,215.47 16,638.21 (1,577.26) -9

5 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent 4,491.87 7,131.86 2,639.99 59

5 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 1,751.77 527.91 (1,223.86) -70

5 Closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50 percent 168.56 (168.56) -100

Total 96,212.64 96,212.64 (0.00) 0

LA

ND

CO

VE

R C

HA

NG

E,

by L

GU

sDeforestation

Massive

Deforestation

Deforestation

Massive

Deforestation

Settlement

Expansion

Settlement

ExpansionSettlement

Expansion

Settlement

Expansion

Settlement

Expansion

Land

conversion

Land

conversion

Land

conversion

Land

conversion

Land

conversion

conversion

6

Social-spatial challenges

❑ segregration of high income gated communities and enclaves of poverty and ethnic communities;

❑ expansion of informal communities both within the city and the urban periphery

“fringe”;

❑ Bulk of new ‘urban migrants’ will be living in peri-urban, urban fringe, peripheral areas of NCR or Greater NCR (MM, CL, ST)

▪ 40% informal settlement

▪ 2.5M housing backlog; 6.8M demand (2022)

Source: NEDA Central Luzon Regional Dev’t Plan 2017-2022

1

3

Ondoy/Ketsana (2009)

Climate change and DRR

1

4

Sendong/Washi (2010)

1

5

Pablo/Bhopa (2012)

1

6

Yolanda/Haiyan (2013)

Public health and pandemic challenges

The frequency of disease outbreaks has

been increasing steadily. Between 1980 and

2013 there were 12,012 recorded outbreaks,

comprising 44 million individual cases and

affecting every country in the world. – World

Economic Forum

Deforestation has increased

steadily over the past two

decades and is linked to 31% of

disease outbreaks such as Ebola,

Zika and Nipah viruses - WHO

1.7 million undiscovered viruses exist in wildlife

and birds, 850,000 = potential to infect people

Since the Great Influenza Pandemic in 1918,

COVID-19 is the 6th global health

pandemic and its source is microbes found on animals – UN Environment Programme

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4223919/

Successful drug development is not always about advanced synthetic biology - there is also a link to nature-based solutions and biodiversity as researchers are increasingly “reverting to nature” to look for new therapeutic options.

50,000-70,000 plant

species are harvested for

traditional or modern

medicine,

while around 50% of modern

drugs have been developed

from natural products that are

threatened by biodiversity

loss

Land-use changes and environmental

pressures induce modifications in biodiversity and

ecosystem functions, leading to loss of ecosystem

services (ES) which could then affect human

societies. IPBES, 2018.

23% increase (2015)

Population and demographics

challenge in 20301

❑72% of total population will be 40 and

below; 70-79 growth 125%▪ 0-14 = 30%; 38.4 million

▪ 15-64 = 64%; 81.92 million (working age)

▪ 65+ = 6%; 7.68 million

▪ 0-30 = 72.5 million or 57% of total population;

▪ 30-39 = biggest growth with 6.0 million

❑Median age (2030) = 27 (RP), 37 (Asia-

Pacific);▪ (2012) = 23 (RP); 31(Asia-Pac)

❑Urban population 57% from 49.1% (2012)

▪ 2012-2030 – 51.7% urban growth rate (72 million); rural growth 13.3% (55.8 million);

▪ RP more urbanised than Asia-Pacific

(average) in 2012 and 2030

❑ Cities with more than 1 million population

▪ Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan, Davao (2012)

▪ Cebu, Antipolo, Pasig and Taguig, CDO (2030)

▪ Top 10 cities = 17.2 million; 24.7%

Institutional challenges

▪ capacity of governments to respond to urban development pressure, governance

and public participation

Impacts of Urban Economic Growth

Urban Development

and Growth

Disaster and Hazard

Mitigation

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction2015-2030 outlines seven clear targets and

four priorities for action to prevent new and reduce existing disaster risks:

(i) Understanding disaster risk;

(ii) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage

disaster risk;

(iii)Investing in disaster reduction for resilience and;

(iv)Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective

response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery,

rehabilitation and reconstruction.

What is Climate resilience?

Concept of climate resilience

▪ “Resilience concentrates on enhancing the performance of a system in the face of multiple hazards rather than preventing or mitigating the loss of assets due to a specific event”

▪ moves away from traditional disaster risk reduction based understanding, which is founded on risk assessments that relate to specific hazards. Instead, it accepts the possibility that a wide range of disruptive events both stresses and shocks may occur but are not necessarily predictable

What is Climate Risk Management

and Planning?

What is Climate Risk Management?

▪ Comprehensive Climate Risk Management (CRM) is “a systemic approach that seeks to anticipate, avoid, prevent, and finance risks as well as absorb remaining impacts from extreme weather events and slow onset changes.”

▪ aims to reduce and address the negative consequences of climate change along the entire risk continuum: averting climate risks through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, minimising climate risks through adaptation and risk

management to managing residual climate risks

Climate

mitigation

Climate

adaptationClimate

resilience

▪ It thus builds on lessons learnt from climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRR)

▪ embedded in a sustainable development framework.

Why?

▪ Resilience building therefore, should not focus exclusively on protecting assets but also on reducing the vulnerability of poor people by improving access to basic services and housing which is, in effect, the implementation of the SDGs; combined

▪ disaster risk reduction interventions such as water conservation and flood protection may generate lower gains in avoided asset losses, but larger gains in well-being.

“Efforts to reduce poverty and build resilience

are complementary.”

Win-win solution to achieve resilience

▪ to invest in ambitious mitigation action to avoid the unmanageable, and comprehensive and holistic adaptation action to manage the unavoidable–including better management of ecosystems and their services, improved governance, and economic policies that support sustainable development.

▪ Paris Agreement - “urges Parties to enhance understanding, action and support in areas such as, “Resilience of communities, livelihoods and ecosystems”.

People-centered

People

EcosystemsLivelihoods

Ecosystems

Livelihoods

People

Ecosystems-based/Interactive

"Restoring forests and

other ecosystems can

help to contribute to

20-30% of what is

needed to meet goals

regarding climate

change.” –UN IPCC

protect at least 30% of

the planet's oceans

and land by 2030 in

order to minimize the

decline in biodiversity

–UN Convention for

Biodiversity, 2020,

“There is thus an increasing need to

develop plans that sustain ecosystems

and the services they supply (to

society)” - Costanza et.al., 2017.

How?

People

EcosystemsLivelihoods

Integrative, inclusive, inter-active, intertwined, innovative, imaginative and intimate

Approach to Sustainable Land Use and

Resilient Planning – from ‘sector to

systems’ thinking

❑ strategic rather than comprehensive; flexible rather than end-state oriented; adaptive management; “systems thinking”

❑ action and implementation orientated through links to common budgets, programmes and projects and city-wide/regional-wide infrastructure;

❑ stakeholder and community-driven rather expert-driven;

Approach to Sustainable and Resilient

Planning – from ‘sector to systems’

thinking

❑ sensitive to political time scales;

❑ reflective of emerging concerns (e.g. global competitiveness, environmental risks), new visions and problems of local identity and sustainability

❑ a planning process that has outcomes that are highly diverse and dependent upon stakeholder influence or policy directions

❑ integration of cross-sectoral policy objectives into physical planning objectives; trade-offs between non-physical entities and physical entities;

❑ push for science and values; science and data-driven, ‘big data’ analysis;

▪ FIRE or ‘role of technology’ – GIS, remote

sensing/satellite technology; drones; mobile/digital

technology

❑ requires a far more complex process of dialogue and engagement and decision-making

addressing the problem of climate change and reduce carbon footprint of cities;

means of incorporating efforts at integrating ‘green’and ‘brown’ agenda;

effectively linking urban land use planning, urban development and infrastructure planning;

‘rural-urban’ connection or continuum

undertaking planning in the peri-urban areas; and at the sub-regional/sub-national level, particularly in the growing cities and megacities.

Economics of sustainable land use and sustainable sites

concentration of services and infrastructure;

plan according to geophysical nature; center settlements/infrastructure development on natural/physical characteristics (preservation/conservation/enhancement) of area;

define and demarcate green, productive and buffer (multi-use zones); mixed land uses

support infrastructures and incentives

vertical and sprawl

Approaches to Creating Sustainable Sites (1)

▪ Transportation and road infrastructure radial and ring expressway (centrifugal development, extensive land

conversion/leapfrogging, urban periphery land use/urban sprawl; (e.g. Sta Rosa/North Fairview-Commonwealth Area) auto-centric = pollution/traffic; increased energy consumption and human time savings;

parking

mass-transit (centripetal development, encourages densification/agglomeration) = (e.g. Makati CBD)

Road Layouts = grid (efficient); slope/contour based (less efficient, maximisevista/natural layout);

Service corridors for utilities (e.g. Fort Bonifacio)

▪ Trunk/network infrastructure (i.e. utilities)

water/power systems =limits sprawl or concentration of settlements based on utilities service areas; decentralisedfacilities rather than centralised

maximisation use of water (i.e. surface/ground; waste and clean water) (e.g. UP TechnoHub/Nuvali) ; clustering or compatibility of water users; designation of water-protection zones; maximisation of collected/recirculated water (e.g. rainwater, surface run-offs, treated water); use of porous surfaces to encourage infiltration.

bad practices: paving of polluted streams/waterways for roads; waste disposal/drainage in water bodies; over-extraction of ground water; poor drainage design

▪ Open/green space distribution/public urban spaces and green urbanismgreenbelts/greenways (green wedges) used as growth

boundaries = contain sprawl; permanent forestlands/agricultural areas

More focused on natural vegetation/habitats rather open lawns

designation, demarcation and protection of fragile habitat/wetlands from development (e.g. Hamilo Coast, Anvaya Cove);

Cheaper in new infrastructure (capital costs) than redevelopment; lesser sellable but premium lots;

▪ Redevelopment/on-site renewal or “scrap and build”;

capital intensive/maximisation of infrastructure/economies of scale; increased in property values; private sector-led;

flexibility in creating new spaces (e.g. mixed-uses) and character (e.g. Ayala Triangle, Bonifacio High Street-Market,Market, Eastwood-Libis, New Ortigas-TiendesitasCenter, Rockwell Center, Metrowalk

economic and social risks; CBD-oriented, creation ‘social/economic/cultural’ enclaves or divides

▪ Designing based natural and geophysical characteristic Maximise porous types of surfaces or natural drainage

systems rather than impervious (e.g. pavers vs concrete sidewalks); 11% reduction = 99% reduced volume of water in street; reduce street widths/sidewalks

Limited or no development in floodprone/near cliff areas; integrate flood/erosion-mitigating infrastructure = retention ponds, levies, dikes, dams and other protective barriers (e.g. Circulo Verde-Ortigas, UP TechnoHub);

low impact development (LID) = use of natural hydrological systems to reduce storm water flow rates and volumes; Beautification of cityscape, more open space, reduce heat island effects and improved air quality (e.g. KL , Singapore, Nuvali/Ayala Greenfields)

Role of planners

❑ Role of planners in resilience planning

▪ Systems-thinking and ecosystems-wide mindset

▪ Target:

▪ Translate emission reductions (energy, transport, building/infrastructure dev’t, utilities – water/)

▪ Natural-based – open/green space, urban greenery,

▪ Social-economic – health, livelihood

❑ Lessons of pandemic vs resilience

▪ DRR response capability or readiness is not enough

(infrastructure, institutions, tools, resources)

▪ Economic (livelihood) and ecosystems (recovery and rehabilitated);

▪ Strength of our resilience depends on the strength of our natural ecosystems (nature and humans)

❑ Opportunity to restart/re-calibrate ourselves and resilience

Mabuhay PIEP!!