Global Security and Development National Security and Defense Transformation

September-December 2014Dr Keagle—keaglej@ndu.edu

202-685-2530 (wp) 703-764-0726 (hp)

COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): Change brings with it challenges—at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels. It involves behaviors and cultures with often deep-seated traditions. This course will explore the scope and magnitude of the transformational forces at work in our national security and defense establishments. By its nature the course will be about warfare—how the nation goes about the business of preparing, equipping, and training itself to deter and if necessary to fight traditional wars and the new kinds of challenges that might lead to armed conflict. It will also be about sociology, bureaucratic politics, the role of the media, economics, health care, power…. Most of all this semester it will be about the politics of the national security and the sequestration/budget pressures on the defense budget.

PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the national security and defense policy making processes as well as the contemporary challenges the U.S. faces in the international system. An undergraduate foundation in IR and American foreign policymaking will be helpful, although this will truly be a course multi-disciplinary at its heart.

COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:

1. the array of issues transforming the business of national security and defense—and how they are changing the processes of national security and defense policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues.

2. how Washington works and how it responds to (or resists) change. In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.

3. the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.

You should also be able to apply such knowledge to specific issues as well as synthesize across disciples and analyze and evaluate options.

REQUIRED TEXTS: Read, read read! Watch, watch watch! Think, think, think! Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post (generally). The discussion and examination of most issues will be supported with readings I will supply through hot links to internet available materials. Watch from the menu of public affairs broadcasts. I will provide either links or actual hard copies of a range of materials as the course unfolds.

METHODOLOGY:This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting will be devoted to a formal

lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture--and paramount to the success of the seminar. Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace. This is a discussion based learning environment—not lecture based.

I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is my primary objective.

EVALUATION:Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance is expected.

One written issue paper (see below) 25%

Major (10-15 pages) written reportand oral presentation on selected 50%transformation topic

Class discussions 25%

Final Exam (optional—can raise your evaluation one letter grade)

Each issue paper is to be three-five pages in length and will contain the following sections—

background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided). An additional one-half page of talking points are also required. You will write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—this President. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same.

The major paper can have a similar format but requires more analysis and evaluation.

Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally return the electronic submissions with one working day. Paper submissions will be returned to you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. Papers due at beginning of class on Oct 14 and December 9.

TOPICS FOR EXAMINATION:General approach—we will look at some theory early. Ideally each student or small group of students will specialize in a particular topic or two—and I will assist in the research and student preparation to focus discussion on the various topics we explore.

I could lecture this all—but that is not my approach to a fun-and productive graduate learning experience. You have important roles, and I will be there to help focus your interests and make our sessions together true seminar experiences. Background readings for background; source documents, plus insights gleaned from contemporary comments, speeches, press conferences, etc.

The National Security Policy Process http://www.ndu.edu/icaf/outreach/publications/nspp/docs/icaf-nsc-policy-process-report-08-2011.pdf

Big Data and the NSAChallenges to the Constitution—Security vs. Liberty (the Ben Franklin quote now much

more commonly referenced); this is a serious part of the course—with an examination of the role of social media and EO 12333 and Section 215 of the Patriot Act—and spying on congress and our allies

The Changing Nature of Warfare: new Roles and Missions?DOD Directive 3000.5 and Stability OperationsPost Ukraine—fighting a war against criminals, thugs, IO campaigns, and outside supportWhither Novorossiya and its impact on NATO Art V guarantees

ReconstructionProspects for Reintegration/Reconciliation in Iraq given ISIS and whatever follows al

Maliki, Afghanistan post Karzai and elsewhere; a new kind of soldier; Three Cups of Tea;

See also the new US Army field manual 3-24 (Petraeus’s counterinsurgency strategy implemented in Iraq and being given much of the credit for the success of the surge)—http://www.fas.org/irp/dodder/army/fm3-24.pdf and the debate with CT advocates (Biden) this may be decided on cost grounds.

We will also examine the new National Defense Strategy. This really directs the Services to get serious about asymmetric warfare and will turn the R & D and AT & L processes on their heads.

New AF strategy focuses on necessary personnel changes plus continued movement toward integrating autonomous systems

See Panetta to BENS, Nov 2012 re the new nature of the deployed force—drones, Intel, SOF, HN forces, contractors

Is “Clear, Hold, Build’ outdated? Is there a role in Afghanistan beyond CT? Reconstruction? Economic Development? Governance and Corruption? Reconciliation? A New Silk Road? What is the bottom line mission in Afghanistan?

Do the American people have the patience to see through a decades’ long commitment.

Is there a casualties threshold? Did we cross it with the Chinook shootdown?

How and in what sequence and with what prioritization and with what agencies do we accomplish security, governance and development missions?

The Changing Nature of Warfare: New Operations A Decentralized Battlefield? Network centric operations and network enabled capabilities Information Operations and the Battle of Ideas: Messages, Mediums, and MethodsRole of 24 hours news; embedded reporters; internet; Al Jazeera (and others); individual IPodsSee for example Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Special report, “The War of Images and Ideas,” Daniel Kimmage and Kathleen Rodolfo, DC, RFE/RL, Inc., 2007

Role of UAVs/RPVs/Unmanned systems—a lot here—perhaps the most transformational of any aspect of national security—and really tied to resources challenges—See also role of autonomy, trust, human interface in the kill chain—much of this intersects wit he law of armed conflict

Have we armed and trained the ISIS into the successful fighting force we have seen as of 8/14??

.

China—And AsiaWhat should the new relationship be in the era of the pivot? U.S. hegemony replaced

by leadership and cooperation? See what Kissinger has to say Recent PRC claims regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea and annual DOD

submission to Congress re PRC military modernization, August 2010 PRC sends carrier to sea for test voyage—Summer 2011Role of Ballistic Missile Defense in defending from DPRK threats—SM III and Aegis as game changersRise of Japan-Taiwan-Australia alliance? The first and second Island ring strategy? Recent US/ROK military exercisesHow does Air Sea Battle work at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels? See

Keagle in Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 70, 3rd Quarter 2013What about A2/AD?

Resetting Relations with RussiaGeorgia and Ukraine—energy issues front and center? Or is it about sovereignty?The New START, verification and nuclear force modernization Post-Snowden—what comes after the pause?Novorossiya—what does it mean?ASW—could breakthroughs threaten our strategic triad?

Transforming NATO New defense and political roles/Support for Afghanistan? And other out of area operations/Whither Europe, the Euro-zone and the EU post Ukraine? Are sanctions enough?What does effective deterrence mean in this context?

The Changing Nature of Warfare: a new Military Medicine Battlespace and the new Costs of Warfare: IEDS, PTSD and Traumatic Brain Injuries; C-17s as flying ICUs; modern day bleed-out challenges; cost of military health care (disabled, dependents, retirees); new proposals on military retirement to be replaced with a 401K-like system

See Dole –Shalala Report, “Serve, Support, and Simplify,” July 2007See DD report of mental health--http://www.taps.org/%5Cdownload%5CDOD%20Mental%20Health%20Task%20Force%20Report.pdf

Also, the pure economic costs of health care

Resistance to Change: New capabilities vs. legacy systemsUAVs—Predator WASPS, nano systemsSpace—ASATs, BMD, and the Aegis we will explore Chinese thinking here—

Google “Studies 9 and 32”; 2011 released Space strategyNon lethal weapons: Directed Energy Weapons (active denial

systems):Cyber Power and Security )2011 released cyber strategy—cooperation with

private sector—sniping and offensive cyber strategic elementsvs.

F-22s, JSFs, JDAMs and PGMs, Carrier Battle Groups, Abrams/M-1 tanks

F-35Smart Defense—what does it mean?

Reorganizing DOD: AFRICOM—a truly interagency command? Consolidation of the COCOMs????? The largest AFRICOM base is in Djibouti? Why?

AFGHAN All-Hands—the next generation of interagency reform

The End of JFCOM? What was really cut?DoD budget cuts—effect on outsourcing (contractors) and the political process—

the costs of the wars—how much can we shrink the force?Furloughs and Involuntary Reductions in Force (RIFs)????The fiscal/budget realities--cost of the retirement system and health care—future

of TRICARE for lifeMoney money, money—cutting major weapon systems and revamping

personnel, health and retirement systems—but how about taking care of the vets—and PTSD, TBI and Gulf War Syndrome—money, money, money

Energy Challenges

Supply/demand/transportation/production/refineriesSee work of Richard Andrus—key is JP-4 and the cost of keeping the USAF flying See LMI Report FT602T1/April 2007, Transforming the Way DOD Looks at Energy,

Security Considerations for a Warming Arctic: Unfrozen Treasures and an Ice Breaker Gap?

Role of the Coast Guard, global warming and possible energy resources in the Arctic. See for example CRS Report RL 34391, “Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background, Issues, and Options for the Congress,” by Ronald O’Rourke, February 26, 2008.

What is Russia up to in the Arctic? Does it create an operational gap? The Big Five?—Canada, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Nigeria Russia and its supply richesGrowing demand from China and India

Energy Security-- Fossil Fuel international dependence? LNG and or hydro-fracturing as game changers?????

Reorganizing for National Security:Information and Intelligence Sharing Across International, Interagency, Federal, State, and Public Sector Boundaries; Need to Know vs. Need to Share; A new Goldwater-Nichols Act or National Security Act (1947) rewritten for 2009; Jointness replaced by interagencyness and coalitionness (Jim Locher)Top Secret America—Wash Post Series July 2010New relationships among State, Defense and the IC (see Michael Flynn)How to we do coalition ops in the future—sharing information is key—but we come from a Five Eyes culture.

Authorizing and Funding for National SecurityObama approach for Afghanistan—as differentiated from Bush and IraqExecutive-Congressional RelationsWar Powers Act—undoing authorizations for the use of military force post 9/11; see

Obama speech at NDU 2013Congressional ResolutionsAuthorizations and Appropriations Process

SupplementalsCovert Budgets and the Need for Intelligence

The militarization of foreign policy—see Section 1206 and 1207 issues.

Obviously, the country will continue to debate whether or not the “war” in Afghanistan continues beyond 2014. This is both a $$ issue and an international support issue. Can we stay long enough to effect political reintegration, reconciliation, and development? How important are the 2014 elections?

The Changing Laws of WarGeneva Convention, GITMO and Abu GraibWhere is the line? Torture and other Information acquiring techniquesRenditionsIllegal Combatants, Habeas Corpus and the prisoners’ rightsUnreasonable Search and seizure: Patriot Act, FISA, warrantless searches, electronic

eavesdropping/intercept, the 4th Amendments

As you know Obama has changed course from his campaign rhetoric to his positions as president.. That will be fruitful for our discussions as well as historical material. Trials of Karadic and Mladic?

What about Libya—and Syria

The Role of the PeoplePublic Support and Unpopular WarsDraft vs. All-Volunteer Force--this is a very serious issue Total Force: Role of the Guard

and Reserves--Note the promotion of the Chief of the National Guard Bureau to 4-star rank (but still not a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Tour lengths, dwell time, and individual family health—will we really go to 9 month deployments followed by 3 years home?The VA and Society’s Responsibility for the Disabled Vet—and the cost

See selected background readings Background Readings.

Remarks by President Barack Obama to the Australian Parliament, 17 Nov 2011, [Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/ 1 7 /remarks- president-obama australian-parliament]

Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century," Foreign Policy, November 2011, [Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas pacific centuryl

U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership, Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 2012 [Available via BlackBoard or at

www.defense.gov/news/Defense Strategic Guidance]

Briefing on Defense Strategic Guidance, 5 January 2012, [Available at http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4953]

Remarks from Defense Strategic Guidance Media Roundtable, January 5, 2012, [Available at http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4954]

Speech by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta on Major Budget Decisions, January 26, 2012, [Available at http:ljwww.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1647J

Supplemental Readings. The supplemental readings listed in this syllabus are NOT meant to be prescriptive; rather, their intent is to provide a range of issues or context for students to consider as they develop their strategy. Similarly, this is not a full list of available information. There is an expectation that students will have to conduct research outside of these documents to develop and support their strategy.

Thinking about the Near Future

Martin lndyk, Tanvi Madan, and Thomas Wright eds., Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama's Second Term, January 2013, (Foreign Policy Project at Brookings, Washington, D.C.). [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/big-bets-black-swans]

The National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, November 2008 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).

National Global 2030: Alternative Worlds, December 2012 (Washington, D.C: Government Printing Office).

Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community: Statement for the Record Before the 5. Select Comm. on Intelligence, Mar, 12, 2013, 116th Cong., (2013) (Statement of James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence).

Some Thoughts on US Strategy

Daniel Deudney and John Ikenberry, Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy for a Post-exceptionalist World, November 2012, (Working Paper, Council on Foreign Relations International Institutions and Global Governance Project, Washington, D.C.).

Patrick C. Doherty, "A New U.S. Grand Strategy," Foreign Policy, January 9, 2013. [Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/a new US grand strategy]

Robert A. Manning, Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World, December 10, 2012, (Washington, D.C.: Atlantic Council, 2012).

Barry R. Posen, "Pull Back: The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1 (Jan/Feb 2013): 116-128.

U.S. Economic Posture for the Future

Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale, Fiscal Fatigue: Tracking the Budget Outlook as Political Leaders Lurch from One Artificial Crisis to Another, February 28, 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institute, 2013). [Available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/28-fiscal-fatigue-budget-outlook-gale]

Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2023,February 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).

Strategic Choices for US Military Futures

David Barno, Nora Behsahel and Travis Sharpe, Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity, Responsible Defense Series, October 2011, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American Security, 2011).

Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman's Strategic Direction to the Joint Force, the Joint Staff, February 6, 2012. [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2012/02/strategic-direction-to-the-joint-force/]

John Deutch et. all, Letter to the Honorable Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, March 5, 2013.

Michele Flournoy and Janine Davidson, "Obama's New Global Posture," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 4 (Jul/Aug 2012): 54-63.

The Asia-Pacific Pivot

Shawn Brimley and Ely Ratner, "Smart Shift: A Response to 'The Problem with the Pivot',"

Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013): 177-181.

Aaron L. Friedberg, "Bucking Beijing: An Alternative U.S. China Policy," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 48-58.

T.X. Hammes, "Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 278 (June 2012). [Available via Blackboard or at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF%20278%20Hammes.pdf]

Justin Logan, "China, America, and the Pivot to Asia," CATO Institute, Policy Analysis No. 717,

January 8, 2013. [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/china-america-pivot-asia]

Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, "How China Sees America: The Sum of Beijing's Fears,"

Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 32-47.

Vikram Nehru, The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters, March 13, 2013, (Washington, D.C.: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013). [Available at http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/13/rebalance-to-asia-why-south-asia-matters/fq97#]

Robert Ross, "The Problem with the Pivot," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 6 (Nov/Dec 2012): 70-82.

Phillip C. Saunders, "Managing Strategic Competition with China," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 242, July 2009. [Available via BlackBoard or at www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/SF242China Saunders.pdf]

The Greater Middle East and South Asia

Richard L. Armitage, R. Nicholas Burns, and Richard Fontaine, Natural Allies: A Blueprint for Future U.5.-lndia Relations, October 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American Security, 2010).

Sheri Berman, "The Promise of the Arab Spring." Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013), 64-74.

Amitai Etzioni, "Shifting Sands," The Journal of International Security Affairs, no. 20(Spring/Summer 2011), 87-97.

Seth G. Jones, "The Mirage of the Arab Spring" Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013),

55-63. Colin H. Kahl, "Not Time to Attack Iran - a Response to: 'Time to Attack Iran',"

Foreign Affairs,

91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012), 166-173.

Matthew Kroenig, "Time to Attack Iran," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2012), 76-86.

Raja Mohan, Return of

American Interest, 5 no. 5 (May/Jun 2010),

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George Perkovich, Toward Realistic U.S - India Relations, 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010).

NA TO and Europe

Richard Hass, "Continental Drift," The Washington Post, June 19, 2011: Bl.

Francis G. Hoffman, Alternative American Grand Strategies: Implications for NATO and EUCOM, Institute for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the Atlantic Council - National Defense University project on the future of US European Command, (July 19, 2012).

Leo Michel, NATO, the European Union, and the United States: Why not a virtuous menage a trois?" Institute for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the joint AtlanticCouncil - National Defense University Future of US European Command project, (July 19, 2012).

Russia and its Neighbors

Ariel Cohen, "U.S. Policy on Russia for Obama's Second Term," The Heritage Foundation, Issue Brief No. 3854, February 20, 2013.

Agnia Grigas, "Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power: Russian Influence in the Baltic States," Chatham House, Briefing Paper 2012/04, August 2012.

Andrew C. Kuchins and Igor A. Zevelev, "Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in Change," The Washington Quarterly, 35 no. 1, (Winter 2012), 147-161.

Jim Nichol, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments and Implications for U.S.lnterests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), January 24, 2013.

Jim Nichol, Central Asia's Security: Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), March 11, 2010.

Jim Nichol, Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), June 13, 2011.

Sergey Markedonov, "What Washington Wants in the Caucasus," The National Interest, June 12, 2012. [Available at http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-washington-wants-the caucasus- 7038]

John W. Parker and Michael Kofman, "Russia Still Matters: Strategic Challenged and Opportunities for the Obama Administration," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 280, (March 2013).

Dmitri Vision a

report presented at Chicago Council on Global Defense and the Future of NATO, Chicago, IL, (28-30 May, 2012).

Africa

Andre Le Sage, "Africa's Irregular Security Threats: Challenges for U.S. Engagement," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 255, (May 2010).

Princeton N. Lyman and Kathryn A. Robinette. "Obama and Africa: Matching Expectations with Reality." Journal of International Affairs, 62, no. 2 (2009): 1-XI.

Lauren Ploch, Africa Command: U.S Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S Military in Africa,Congressional Research Service (CRS), April 3, 2010.

Latin America and the Western Hemisphere

John A. Cope and Frank 0. Mora, "Hemispheric Security: A New Approach," Current History, 108no. 715 (Feb 2009): 65-71.

R. Evan Ellis, "The United States, Latin America and China: A 'Triangular Relationship'," Inter American Dialogue, Working Paper, (May 2012).

Christopher Sabatani, "Rethinking Latin America," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012): 8-

13.

Energy Security

ExxonMobile, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, [Available at www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news pub eo.pdf]

Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator, International Energy Outlook 2011, Outlook, September 2011, U.S. Energy Information Administration