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SEMATECHCritical Materials Council
Meeting Lita Shon‐Roy, Sue Davis, Ralph Butler, Ed Korczynski
TECHCET GroupOctober [email protected]
OutlineIntroductions
Market Trends Overview
Silicon Wafer Market / Supply Chain
Photoresists & Ancillaries Discussion
2016 Calendar / Schedule of Critical Materials Reports
Wrap Up Discussion
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Confidential InformationThe information contained in this presentation is for the use of Techcet’s representatives and customers or prospective customers. It is considered confidential in nature and should not be shared with others outside of the aforementioned parties. Your cooperation is much appreciated.
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Wafer Starts per Year (200mm equivalent)
Below red arrow = 200mm wafer starts
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Rare Earth’s UpdateStatistics released by the China General Administration of Customs show that China's July exports of rare earth 3,658 tons, more than doubled compared to last July’s 1,799 tons, the highest record since last four years. This year from January to July, a total exports of 17,500 tons rare earth has been reported, which is an increase of 10.3% compared to last year.
Impact on the rare earth price trendsWith the sharp rise in exports quantities, the price of the rare earth is in sharp decline. Data from the China General Administration of Customs show that the first half of this year, China's total exports of rare earths from Inner Mongolia region is 2663.8 tons, an increase of 36.5% compared to the same period of last year, while the average export price has plunged to 32,000 yuan per ton, a 34.7 drop compared to the same period of last year.
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China’s New Resource Tax Ratesbased on Market Value vs. Weight
When China eliminated its export tariffs on rare earth elements on May 1,2 015, they also implemented a new rare earth Resource Tax Law. This new Resource tax is calculated by flat rates and these rates vary by region and type of rare earth element.
Resource tax = Sale Total X Resource tax rate%; Sales Total = vol by wt. X unit price(Tax is now based on revenues; was based on weight. Previous export tariffs: 15% for light and 25% for heavy. )
Resource tax rate% = 27% for all heavy rare earth in all regionsResource tax rate% =11.5 % for all light rare earth in the Inner Mongolia regionResource tax rate% =9.5 % for all light rare earth in the Sichuan regionResource tax rate% =7.5 % for all light rare earth in the Shandong regionCe (Cerium) === 7.5 % to 11.5 % depending on region (was 15% based on weight)
Metals and Minerals Resource Tax RatesPhosphor rock====== 27% (was 25% based on wt.)F (fluorspar) ====== 7.5 % to 11.5 % region dependent (was 15% based on wt.) W (Tungsten ore) === 6.5% Molybdenum ====== 11%
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Materials Spend Changing
All Material Areas have grown relative to Silicon over the past 7‐8 years. Now > $47B
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Direct Materials
31%
Silicon17%
Packaging43%
Indirect Materials
9%
2014 IC Fab Material
Direct Materials
26%
Silicon30%
Packaging40%
Indirect Materials
4%
2007 IC Fab Material
Ralph ButlerSr. Technical Analyst
More than 25 years of experience in the Semiconductor Industry, focused on technology trends and business development. He has helped develop and execute business strategies for companies such as SunEdison/ MEMC, ATMI, TEL, MRC and LAM Research/Novellus
Ralph holds a degree in Electrical Engineering from Texas A&M University and is a registered patent agent.
TECHCET’s Silicon Wafer and Dielectric Precursors Analyst
Contact: [email protected]
Market SegmentQ2 each year typically delivers a strong selling performance over Q1. This year was no exception. Silicon wafer producers shipped increased silicon representing a growth in sales. Q3 Financials are not yet available.
In calendar quarter 2 (Mar – Jun), the top silicon wafer producers delivered positive revenue and income quarter to quarter and year to year with the exception of SunEdison Semiconductor that saw a retrenchment of sales (‐3.5% y0y) and Q2 operating loss indicating shrinking market share.
Prices remain flat for the segment.
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FinancialsSiltronic‐ Q2 2015 (Jan 1 – Mar 31) Sales increased by 17% y0y‐ Q2 2015 (Jan 1 – Mar 31) EBITDA increased by 11% y0y
Shin Etsu Handotai – S.E.H.‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Net Sales increased by 6.6% y0y‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Operating Income increased by 5.7% y0y‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Ordinary Income increased by 11% y0y
SUMCO‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Net Sales increased by 12.9% y0y‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Operating Income increased by 45.6% y0y‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Ordinary Income increased by 48.2% y0y‐ Q1 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Net Income increased by 39.5% y0y
SunEdison Semiconductor‐ Q2 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Net Sales decreased by 3.5% y0y‐ Q2 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Operating Income (loss) ‐$5M ‐ Q2 2015 (Apr 1 – Jun 30) Net Income (loss) ‐$15.5M
LG Siltron not reported 11
Segment NewsJuly 2015 ‐ Global Foundries announced 22FDX, its 22nm FD SOI, readiness on Soitec 300mm FD SOI substrates
SunEdison (solar) sold its remaining 10.6 million shares of SunEdison Semiconductor for $193M in June. SunEdison Semiconductor will get none of proceeds.
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Plant Closures / Discontinued Operations
SunEdison Semiconductor Ltd.Announced the shutter of its 200mm wafer factory in Ipoh, Malaysia.
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Market AnalysisThe semiconductor grade silicon wafer market is highly competitive among the top five producers.
Shin Etsu Handotai, S.E.H. with 32% share and
SUMCO with 29% share
account for over 60% of segment revenue and adding the next three producers lifts the sales to 97% for the group with
Siltronic at 14% share
LG Siltron at 12% share and
SunEdison Semiconductor at 10% share
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300mm Silicon Producer Market Share
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Silicon Producer Market Share by Revenue
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Fab Capacity TrendCapacity gains in 200mm wafers grow by 1.6 percent in 2015 and 2.4 percent in 2016.
300mm capacity grows at about 4 percent in 2015 and 2016.
Interestingly, installed capacity for leading edge 300mm fabs experience a capacity loss that occurs when a fab transitions to the next leading‐edge technology.
Increased complexity and more process steps results in fabs producing 10 to 20 percent fewer wafers per square foot of cleanroom; this trend affects all industry segments at the 30/28nm node and smaller.
Source: SEMI, August 2015 17
Wafer Size Installed Capacity
© 2015 Techcet CA LLC
200mm capacity remains relatively flat through 2019 according to IC Insights.
300mm capacity grows at about 4 percent in 2015 and 2016 per SEMI.
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Silicon Shipments
We anticipate a 6% increase in Year on year total annual shipments with flat pricing
Q2Q shipments decrease in Q4 after seasonal Q3 build up
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Area
Shipments (MSI)
9,031 9,067 10,089 10,700 10,900
YoY Change (MSI)
0% 0% 10% 6% 2%
Revenues ($B)
8.7 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.3
YoY Change (Revenue)
‐14% ‐16% 1% 6% 2%
ASP 0.00096 0.00083 0.00075 0.00076 0.00076YoY Change ‐14% ‐16% ‐10% 0% 1%
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450mm
Silicon Wafer Producer Status of 450mm
S.E.H. Development ongoing, public announcement to support the wafer size transition
SUMCO Development ongoing, currently operating pilot line
Siltronic Announced it will not invest [early] in 450mm
LG Siltron No public announcement of investment
SunEdison No public announcement of investment 20
SOI Trend
SOI
He implant
donor
substrate
bonded
substratehandle
donor
Device layer
BOX layer
High Res HR with trap rich layer
Companies with significant SOI production include:• Soitec• S.E.H. • SunEdison Semiconductor
200mm TAM
(millions of wafers)
300mm TAM
(millions of wafers)
Wafer Type RFSOI POWER RFSOI FDSOI
SOI 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.2
Bulk Silicon 55 6821
Take AwayThe silicon market is robust and resilient
Major suppliers continue to innovate to serve leading edge demand and unlike many in the supply chain, serve most all fabs in the eco system
Pricing pressure remains a constant
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Photoresist & Ancillaries Report Status Update for
Sematech Critical Materials Council
by Techcet Groupa Techcet CA LLC CompanyOctober 6, 2015
CONFIDENTIAL 24
Ed KorczynskiSr. Technical Analyst
More than 25 years of experience in the Semiconductor Industry. His experience includes hands‐on engineering, management, and business development experience in IC, LED, and MEMS manufacturing. Ed won two ASBPE awards for editorial excellence with Solid State Technology, and launched the first blog in the IC fab industry.
Ed has a degree in materials science and engineering from MIT, was an invited speaker on cost‐modeling for the Materials Research Society, and has one patent.
TECHCET’s Photoresist & Ancillaries Analyst
Contact: [email protected], +1(408)656‐4636
www.techcet.com [email protected]
Pitch Specs for 7nm‐node Litho Technologies by Mask Layer
www.techcet.com [email protected]
CONFIDENTIAL
(Source: imec, 2015)
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Photoresist & Ancillaries 2016 Working Assumptions and Trends
to be published January 2016
EUV Litho will slowly win critical layers of advanced nodes, allowing specialty materials suppliers time to evolve capacities Chips for IoT and Mobile apps need Ultra‐Low Power, calling for new EDA and new materials for 65nm and 90nm nodes…Litho Changes? Resolution Enhancement Technologies (RET) include EDA, mask, photoresist, and ancillary specialty materials; ancillaries can shrink contact hole diameters, improve line‐width roughness (LWR), and trim line widths; RET ancillaries should be used for more IoT chips?With much materials R&D focused on EUV and 193nm‐immersion (193i), does industry need more R&D for 193nm‐dry and 248nm?Will current litho technologies for ≥48‐nm pitch continue? To be confirmed 3D stacking of V‐NAND and DRAM and GPU chips call for increasing use of G‐line for Through‐Silicon Vias (TSV)…tracking demand
www.techcet.com [email protected]
CONFIDENTIAL 27
Photoresist & Ancillaries Outline
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Photoresist & AncillariesQ&A and Discussion
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Silicon Wafers
ALD / CVD Metal Precursors
Equipment ConsumablesQuartzGraphiteSilicon CarbideCeramicsCMP Parts
Packaging MaterialsWLP Polymers – 2015TSV
CMR Reports Status
Copyright 2015 Techcet CA LLC [email protected] 31
Wet Chemicals & Specialty Cleaning
CMP ConsumablesSlurries / AbrasivesPads / Conditioners
Electronic Gases
Photoresists & Ancillaries
Sputtering Targets
Dielectric Precursors
Key: Newly released 1Q16 2Q16 TBD
Example Data
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Chris Blatt – Sr. Market Analyst• Air Products, IPEC/Athens, Zeon Chemicals
Jonas, Sundqvist, Ph.D. – Sr. Technology Analyst• Fraunhofer, Quimonda
Ed Korczynski – Sr. Technology Analyst• Solid State Technology, Intermolecular,
Nanomarkets, Applied Materials, WJ
Tim Dyer – Sr. Technology Analyst• Elcon, Matsci, Morgan Ceramics IPEC/Speedfam
Bruce Adams – Sr. Technology Analyst• Matheson Gas, Air Products, & Chemicals, Honeywell
Chris Michaluk – Sr. Market Analyst• H.C. Stark, Climax Molybdenum, Williams, Cabot
SuperMetals
Ralph Butler – Technology Analyst• Sun Edison / MEMC, ATMI
Techcet Group Analysts (& Experience listing)
Lita Shon‐Roy – President / CEO• Rasirc/Matheson Gas, IPEC/Athens, Air Products
Karey Holland, Ph.D. – Chief Technical Officer• MegaFluid Systems, FEI, NexPlanar, IPEC,
Motorola, IBM
Sue Davis – Business Development Director & Sr. Analyst• TI, Sematech, Motorola, Rodel/DOW
Yu Bibby, Ph. D. – Sr. Technology Analyst• UV Global, ipCapital Group, Wilkes University
Jerry Yang, Ph.D.– Sr. Technology Analyst• Sematech, Rohm & Haas, Rodel, IPEC, LAM
Mike Fury, Ph.D. – Sr. Advisor• IBM, Rodel, EKC, Vantage
John Housley – Sr. Advisor• EKC Technologies, KTI, Union Carbide, Motorola
Wrap UpQ&A
2016 Expectations / CMC Wish List?
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