Seeking Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa Public ...documents.worldbank.org/.../pdf/588920NWP0no0110Box353823B01PUBLIC1.… · Sachiko Kataoke, David Levesque, Angela Little,

THE WORLD BANK

Secondary Education In Africa (SEIA)

Seeking Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies for Sustainable Financing

Keith M Lewin Centre for International Education University of Sussex

SEIA Thematic Study #1 (2006)

A F R I C A R E G I O N H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N TW O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

wb371432

Typewritten Text

58892

ii

Copyright © July 2006 Human Development Department Africa Region (AFTHD) The World Bank The views, findings and interpretations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the World Bank or any of its affiliated organizations Cover design: Jacob Bregman Cover photo: Jacob Bregman

iii

Africa Region Human Development Working paper series SEIA Thematic report #1 Seeking Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa


Keith M Lewin

Centre for International Education University of Sussex SEIA Thematic Study #1 (2006)

iv

Foreword Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) GDPs grew by an estimated 3.8 percent in 2004 and 4.1 percent in 2005 as the benefits from past reforms and a more peaceful environment play out in expanded economic activity. The World Bank’s Africa Action Plan aims to accelerate progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), based on economic growth. Progress reports by the UN on efforts to achieve the MDGs and the World Bank’s Global Monitoring Report – attest to a renewed commitment on the part of the international community, as well as on the part of Africans, to defeat global poverty and disease. Since June 2002 the Education for All- Fast Track Initiative (EFA-FTI) partnership, now involving more than 30 bilateral, regional and international agencies and development banks, has gradually made important strides. In the coming years, the key challenges are to continue the efforts towards achieving universal primary education, to expand secondary school access in response to demands from growing African economies, and to improve quality, relevance and equity of learning across the board. The Africa Region’s multi-year Secondary Education in Africa (SEIA) study initiative (www.worldbank.org/safr/seia ) is under completion. The SEIA study worked with our partner ADEA, country teams, groups of distinguished African Educators and international institutions. Two regional SEIA conferences demonstrated the need for IDA support in secondary education and training. The SEIA study initiative includes eight thematic studies on specific topics. These thematic study reports contribute to the knowledge base for Africa’s secondary education and training systems. This thematic study #1 is on: “Seeking secondary schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: Strategies for sustainable financing.”. It was compiled by Professor Keith Lewin from the University of Sussex, with SSA country teams. Drafts were discussed at the regional SEIA conferences. This report provides insight into options for expansion and quality improvements at secondary level. This comes with a price-tag. The messages are clear: SSA education systems need to become much more efficient in the delivery of services before sustainable expansion can become reality. In many African countries, growing numbers of primary graduates are knocking at the doors of junior and senior secondary education schools. The challenge is not only in the quantity of participation, but also in the quality and relevance of what is taught and learned. The profile of secondary, vocational and technical education graduates in Africa will need to be more demand-driven, and based on both local and international economic needs. Post-primary education tends to be poorly diversified and typically offers limited opportunities to acquire knowledge and skills to anticipate the patterns of labor market demand in modernizing economies. Thus, the questions are not so much on whether or not to open the door, but how to open it wider, and how to decide what should lie behind the door. Experience in middle- and higher-income countries indicates there needs to be strong ownership among the major stakeholders and across the political spectrum. Reforms are unavoidable on a continent where SE & VTET has largely remained unchanged for several decades, where access has been limited to those with high household incomes, and where mass participation is only likely with more efficient and more effective patterns of expenditure. The results of the SEIA study initiative respond to the growing demand from our Clients for technical assistance and information about options and strategies for SE & VTET.

Jacob Bregman Lead Education Specialist and SEIA Task Team Leader

Africa Region Human Development The World Bank

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:20234497~menuPK:485868~pagePK:146736~piPK:226340~theSitePK:258644,00.html

http://www.worldbank.org/safr/seia

v

Acknowledgements This thematic study report on “Seeking secondary schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: Strategies for sustainable financing” was prepared on a contract-basis for SEIA study initiative of the Africa Region Human Development Department (AFTHD) in the World Bank. The SEIA thematic report #1 was produced by Professor Keith Lewin (University of Sussex, Centre for International Education, UK), who also directed the country-case studies. The draft versions of this report were presented and discussed at the SEIA regional Conference in Dakar, Senegal in June 2005. In addition, the final draft report was reviewed by education specialists and the SEIA core team. This report benefited from country-case studies:

(1) Cost and financing of secondary education in Benin: a situational analysis; by Djibril Debourou, Aimé Gnimadi, Françoise Caillods, and K. Abraham;

(2) Cost and financing of secondary education in Ghana; by K Akyeampong; (3) Cost and financing of secondary education in Zambia; by Paul Bennell, with Gideon

Bulwani, and Moses Musikanga. Several rounds of reviews were done by the SEIA core team. Jacob Bregman (task team leader SEIA, AFTHD) and Adriaan Verspoor (senior education consultant SEIA) provided extensive comments and inputs on the various drafts. This SEIA study was financed by the World Bank and the Norwegian Education Trust Fund (NETF). Funding from the NETF is gratefully acknowledged. Many people commented on drafts, on parts of this work presented at Conferences and Seminars, and in conversation. I am grateful to all those who assisted in many different ways including Kwame Akyeampong, Richard Arden, Paul Bennell, Desmond Bermingham, Jo Bourne, Gideon Bulwani, Jacob Bregman, Albert Byaugisha, Francoise Caillods, Djibril Debourou, Leon Filmer, Aimé Gnimadi, Keith Hinchliffe, Don Hamilton, Richard Johanson, Sachiko Kataoke, David Levesque, Angela Little, Paud Murphy, Moses Musikanga, Mamadou Ndoye and colleagues associated with ADEA, Harriet Nanyonjo, Susy Ndaruhutse, Yusuf Nsubuga, Robinoson Nsumba-Lyazi, Pai Obanya, Pauline Rose, John Rutaisire, Yusuf Sayed, Harvey Smith, Adrian Verspoor, Michael Ward, and Claver Yisa, and others too numerous to list. My thanks also go to many other staff of Ministries of Education in Benin, Ghana, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda, and Zambia, and country offices of the World Bank and DFID who assisted with the case studies and projections.

Keith Lewin, University of Sussex

vi

List of Contents

Executive Summary .....................................................................................................x Introduction................................................................................................................x Mapping Needs .........................................................................................................xi The Diverse Policy Landscape.................................................................................xii Conceptualising the Challenge ...............................................................................xiv The Resources Needed...............................................................................................ii Options for Reforms to Expand Secondary Participation.........................................iv Developing a Road Map for Expanded Secondary Schooling in SSA .....................vi Ways Forward..........................................................................................................vii Concluding Remarks.............................................................................................. viii

Introduction..................................................................................................................1

Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem: Why Secondary Education?.......................4 Primary Expansion.....................................................................................................5 Millenium Development Goals (MDG).....................................................................5 HIV and AIDS ...........................................................................................................6 Equity and Social Mobility ........................................................................................7 Economic Growth and Human Capital ......................................................................8 Curriculum .................................................................................................................9 Key Issues for Costs and Finance ..............................................................................9

Chapter 2. A Status Report on Secondary Schooling in SSA ................................12 Enrolments and Participation...................................................................................12 Gaps in GER2 between SSA and other Regions .....................................................15 Educational Structure in SSA. .................................................................................15 Gender Differences ..................................................................................................18 Repetition.................................................................................................................20 Teachers and Teacher Education .............................................................................21 Participation, Wealth, Gender and Location............................................................22 Non Government Providers .....................................................................................25 Technical and Vocational Education .......................................................................27 Expenditure and Costs .............................................................................................28 Insights from the Analysis .......................................................................................29

Chapter 3. The Challenge of Expanding Secondary Enrolments..........................31 How Fast Will Secondary Enrolments Grow?.........................................................31 Modelling Expansion – Types of Enrolment Patterns in Primary and Secondary Schools in SSA ........................................................................................................36

4. How Much Secondary Expansion is Affordable in SSA with and without Cost Related Reforms?.......................................................................................................44

Country Level Analyses of the Cost of Secondary Expansion in SSA....................47 Teacher Supply Issues..............................................................................................56 Development Expenditure Estimates.......................................................................57 A Framework of Policy Options for Expanded Secondary at Affordable Costs .....63 Data and Evidenced-Based Policy ...........................................................................65

vii

Chapter 5. Options for Affordable Expansion of Secondary Schooling ...............67 Structural Options ....................................................................................................68 School Financing .....................................................................................................72 Improving the Flow of Pupils ..................................................................................74 Teacher Deployment ................................................................................................76 School Management.................................................................................................77 Reformed Curricula and Pedagogy..........................................................................78 Teacher Education ...................................................................................................80 Facilities and Buildings............................................................................................82 Cost Recovery..........................................................................................................83 Non Government Service Provision ........................................................................87

Chapter 6. Ways Forward.........................................................................................90 Starting Points..........................................................................................................90 The Enrolment Challenges.......................................................................................91 The Resources Needed.............................................................................................92 Options for Reforms to Expand Secondary Participation........................................93 Developing a Road Map for Expanded Secondary Schooling in SSA ....................98 Targets......................................................................................................................99 Concluding Remarks..............................................................................................101

Main Text: Annex 1 .................................................................................................104

Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda: Projecting the Future. .....................................105 Case 1: Secondary School Development in Tanzania ...........................................106 Case 2: Post Primary Education and Training (PPET) in Uganda.........................111 Case 3: Nine Year Basic Education In Rwanda.....................................................121

References.................................................................................................................130 List of Tables

Table 1 Basic Data on Secondary Education in SSA ..................................................13 Table 2 Gaps in GER between Regions.......................................................................15 Table 3 Senior Secondary Schools with Enrolments below 100 in Ghana..................17 Table 4 Distribution of Senior Secondary Schools in Ghana by PTR 2000/2001.......21 Table 5 Unit costs for different educational levels ......................................................29 Table 6 Increase in Places Needed for Primary, Lower and Upper Secondary...........34 Table 7 Classification of Enrolment Rates into Bands ................................................37 Table 8 Patterns of Enrolment in SSA – A Classification of Countries ......................38 Table 9 Generic Patterns of Enrolment in Primary and Secondary - SSA ..................41 Table 10 A Typology of Challenges for the Expansion of Secondary in SSA............42 Table 11 Scenario 1 – GER1 85%; GER2L26%; GER2U 13%..................................44 Table 12 Scenario 2 – GER1 110%; GER2L 60%; GER2U 30%...............................45 Table 13 Scenario 3 - Reform Package 1.....................................................................45 Table 14 Scenario 4 - Reform Package 2 (including Reform Package 1) ...................46 Table 15 Scenario 5 – GER1 110%; GER2L 100%; GER2U 30% Reforms 1+2.......46 Table 16 Summary Table of Cost Projections .............................................................51 Table 17 Recurrent Costs of GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% ...............52

viii

Table 18 Recurrent Costs of GER1 110%, GER2L 100% and GER2U 50% .............54 Table 19 Development Costs 2002-2015 GER1=100, GER2L=60, GER2U=30........59 Table 20 Development Costs 2002-2015 GER1=100, GER2L=100, GER2U=50......61 List of Figures Figure 1 Gross Enrolment Rates at Primary and Secondary by Country ....................14 Figure 2 Gross Enrolment Rates at Lower and Upper Secondary by Country............14 Figure 3 Gross Enrolment Rate at Secondary Ranked by GNP per Capita .................14 Figure 4 Gap in GER2 between SSA and Other Regions 1990-2001 .........................15 Figure 5 Structure of Education Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa...............................16 Figure 6 GER2 by Gender Parity Index (GPI)............................................................19 Figure 7 GPI 1 Primary and GPI 2 Secondary by Country..........................................19 Figure 8 Enrolments in Tanzanian Secondary Schools by age and sex.......................20 Figure 9 Rates of Repetition in Secondary Schools in SSA ........................................20 Figure 10 Pupil Teacher Ratios in Primary and Secondary Schools in SSA...............21 Figure 11 Participation by Wealth and Gender in SSA ...............................................23 Figure 12 Participation and by Location and Gender in SSA......................................23 Figure 13 Benin - Participation by Wealth and Gender...............................................24 Figure 14 Ghana – Participation by Wealth and Gender .............................................24 Figure 15 Zambia - Participation by Wealth and Gender ...........................................24 Figure 16 Uganda - Participation by Wealth and Gender............................................24 Figure 17 Tanzania – Participation by Wealth and Gender .........................................24 Figure 18 Rwanda - Participation by Wealth and Gender ...........................................24 Figure 19 Public and Non-Government Enrolments in Tanzania Form 1-4................25 Figure 20 Technical and Vocational School Enrolment in SSA..................................27 Figure 21 Distribution of Recurrent Expenditure between Levels ..............................28 Figure 22 Ratio of Costs per Student between Secondary and Primary ......................29 Figure 23 School Age Population Growth Rates.........................................................32 Figure 24 Percentage of School Age Children in the Population ................................32 Figure 25 Average Enrolment Profile from Ten SSA Countries.................................33 Figure 26 Increases Needed in Enrolments to reach GER2L = 100% by 2015...........35 Figure 27 Group 1; High GER1, High GER2L and GER2U, Low Attrition...............40 Figure 28 Group 2; High GER1, LowGER2L and GER2U, High Attrition................40 Figure 29 Group 3; High GER1, Mid GER2L and GER2U; Mid Attrition ..............40 Figure 30 Group 4; Mid GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U; Mid Attrition .................40 Figure 31 Group 5; Low GER1, Very Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Attrition........40 Figure 32 Generic Chart of Enrolment Patterns – SSA ...............................................41 Figure 33 Rate of Increase in Teachers for GER1=110, GER2L=60, GER2U=30.....57 Figure 34 Framework of Policy Options on Secondary Participation .........................64 Figure 35 Options Related to National Resources.......................................................68 Figure 36 Structural Options to Reduce Unit Costs of Secondary Schools.................71 Figure 37 Options on School Financing ......................................................................73 Figure 38 Options to Improve the Flow of Pupils .......................................................75 Figure 39 Options to Improve Teacher Deployment and Utilisation ..........................77 Figure 40 Options to Enhance School Management....................................................78 Figure 41 Options for Curriculum Reform ..................................................................80 Figure 42 Options to Reform Teacher Education ........................................................81

ix

Figure 43 Options for Construction .............................................................................82 Figure 44 Options for Cost Recovery ..........................................................................86 Figure 45 Non-Government Providers.........................................................................89 Figure 46 Generic Chart of Enrolment Patterns .........................................................91 Figure 47 Summary Table of Options for Expanded Secondary Schooling................96 List of Acronyms ADEA Association for the Development of Education in Africa EFA Education for All GER1 Gross Enrolment Rate Primary GER2 Gross Enrolment Rate Secondary GER2L Gross Enrolment Rate Lower Secondary GER2U Gross Enrolment Rate Upper Secondary GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product GPI Gender Parity Index MDG Millennium Development Goals PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PTR Pupil Teacher Ratio UPE Universal Primary Education SE Secondary Education SEIA Secondary Education in Africa SSA Sub Saharan Africa TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UPE Universal Primary Education

x



Keith M Lewin

Executive Summary

Introduction

Schools in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) exclude most of the 93 million children of secondary school age. About 25 million are formally enrolled in secondary schools and many of these attend irregularly and fail to complete lower secondary schooling successfully. Less than one third survive to enrol in the upper secondary grades. Thirty five SSA countries have secondary Gross Enrolment Rates (GER2) below 40%, and fifteen are below 20%. The gap in secondary enrolment rates between SSA and other developing regions has increased since 1990. The SSA average (25%) is now well below that for the Arab States and North Africa (60%), South and South West Asia (52%), East Asia and the Pacific (65%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (83%). The widening gap is likely to have consequences for competitiveness and economic growth in SSA. The Association for the Development of Education in Africa (ADEA), many national governments and bi-lateral development agencies, and the World Bank now recognise that increased participation in secondary schooling is a priority for much of SSA. Educational reforms are needed to expand participation in secondary schooling in SSA in affordable ways. These reforms will contribute to poverty reduction through greater levels of knowledge, skill and capability, diminish inequalities in access that limit social mobility and skew income distribution, and contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). that relate to education. Secondary schooling in low enrolment SSA is expensive relative to GNP per capita. The number of school age children is high as a proportion of the number of working age adults who can generate the revenue to finance schools. Efficiency and effectiveness gains are needed to reduce the costs per pupil of service delivery to levels that allow mass participation at affordable costs, and which promote knowledge and skill that can reduce poverty and support economic growth. Greater budgetary prioritisation of investment in secondary schooling, and increased external assistance to secondary level education and training is needed to transform prospects for growth, improve equity, and diminish poverty.

xi

Mapping Needs

There are six main reasons to review policy and practice for secondary schooling in SSA.

• First, the output of primary school systems is set to double or more over the next 10 years in low enrolment countries as universal primary enrolment (UPE) and completion is approached. Transition rates into lower secondary may fall unless access to lower secondary schooling is expanded. Mass participation will require new curricula and methods of financing that allow participation from poorer households.

• Second, the achievement of the education related MDGs requires UPE to be

achieved. UPE depends on an adequate flow of qualified secondary graduates into primary teaching. This will be hard to ensure where secondary enrolment rates are low. It also depends on sustained demand for primary schooling which will falter if transition rates into secondary fall. The MDGs commit countries to achieve gender equity in primary and secondary schooling. The evidence from SSA is clear that this is most likely where secondary Gross Enrolment Rates (GER2) exceed 50%, and is rarely achieved where enrolment rates are lower. Central problems are persistent differences in enrolment in grade 1 between boys and girls, and over age entry which disadvantages girls more than boys.

• Third, HIV and AIDs have decimated the active labour force and undermined

prospects for economic growth in some SSA countries. The evidence suggests that those with secondary schooling are less at risk than those with lower levels of educational achievement, both because they are in school and because they are likely to be more receptive to health education messages. In other countries conflict has seriously degraded capabilities. In both cases the human capital that has been lost has to be replenished if prospects for recovery are to bear fruit.

• Fourth, poverty reduction will stall unless both growth and distribution are

considered. Access to and successful completion of secondary schooling is becoming the major mechanism for allocating life chances in much of SSA. Secondary schooling excludes most of those below the 20th percentile of household income in low enrolment SSA. Patterns are strikingly different between countries (see Annex 1). This exclusion must be reversed if national pools of talent are to be fully accessed, equality of educational opportunities is to improve, and social mobility out of poverty is to be available to larger proportions of the population.

• Fifth, competitiveness, especially in high value added and knowledge based

sectors of the economy, depends on knowledge, skills and competencies associated with abstract reasoning, analysis, language and communication skills, and the application of science and technology. These are most efficiently acquired through secondary schooling. Greater economic growth is associated with balanced patterns of public educational investment. Those countries which have grown fastest have more balanced patterns of investment

xii

across different levels of education than those with heavily skewed distributions, and have higher secondary participation levels at early stages of their growth.

• Sixth, curriculum reform at secondary level is essential both because it has

been widely neglected and because expanded access will enrol children with different learning needs and capabilities. Increased participation without more relevant, effective and efficient learning and teaching will not be fit for purpose and may create more problems than it solves.

Increased secondary participation within current cost structures in SSA is severely constrained. The basic arithmetic of the dilemma is straightforward. Typical budgeting patterns in low enrolment countries in SSA allocate relatively small amounts of public expenditure on education to secondary level, sometimes less than 10%. In these countries, where the average Gross Enrolment Rate at Secondary (GER2) can be less than 15%, increases in secondary level participation to say GER2 60% without reforms would require a quadrupling or more of allocations to secondary. This is problematic, especially where there are Education for All (EFA) and Fast Track Initiative (FTI) commitments to protect spending on primary. Public expenditure per pupil at lower secondary level across SSA countries averages about three times that at primary, and about six times that at upper secondary. The ratios may be several times greater for specialised technical and vocational institutions. Cost per pupil at secondary in SSA average at least 30% and 60% of GNP per capita for lower and upper secondary. In the SSA countries with the lowest enrolment rates, the cost of a secondary school place may be as much as 100% of GNP per capita and more than 10 times as much as a place at primary school. These costs mean that substantial increases in access will be difficult to finance in a sustainable way without reforms. Relative costs per pupil will have to fall to levels closer to those found in high enrolment countries where secondary places are usually less than twice the cost of primary places. Costs per pupil at lower and upper secondary will need to move towards 20% and 40% of GNP per capita. Investment in secondary schooling as a proportion of national education budgets will have to increase if the development gains associated with expansion are to be achieved.

The Diverse Policy Landscape

The education systems in SSA are very diverse, as are the challenges they face in expanding access to secondary schools. Most countries maintain a six year primary cycle though there is a range of four to eight years. Lower and upper secondary schooling varies in length from two to five years. Typically systems have three or four years of lower secondary and two or three years of upper secondary. Secondary schooling lasts between three and seven years overall. Most commonly the complete school cycle is 12 years (22 cases), but a large number are 13 years long (20 cases). The shortest systems last 11 years (4 cases). An increasing number of countries are moving towards defining three of four uear lower secondary as part of a basic education cycle lasting nine or ten years. In most of SSA the number of children admitted to secondary education is limited by the number of places available and the direct costs of participation to households, not

xiii

by the numbers who pass primary leaving examinations. Sometimes admission quotas are used in public school systems (geographic location, ethnic group, gender). Non-government schools generally operate more flexible entrance criteria which are influenced by affiliation in faith based schools, and ability to pay fees in the for-profit private sector. Supply side constraints are most prominent in the lowest enrolment countries. Demand side constraints increase in importance as participation rates grow. These structural features are significant for participation and costs, and have to be considered in planning reforms. So also do underlying demographic characteristics that will determine how many secondary places are needed in the future for given enrolment rates. The number of school age children in SSA countries is growing on average at about 2% with a variation between minus 1.4% and over 5%. The school age population represents different proportions of the total population in different countries from below 20% to nearly 40%. Demographic transition to low population growth (less than 1%) has occurred in some SSA countries, but high growth (over 3%) has remained in others. In some countries normal patterns have been severely affected by HIV and AIDS and conflict. Annex 2 shows the percentage of school age children in the population and school age population growth rates for SSA countries. The growth rates for the primary school entry age group have been used to estimate overall growth to 2015. The result is that the overall school age population is set to increase from about 207 million to 280 million or by about 35%. Lower secondary age children will increase from about 49.2 million to 66.2 million, and upper secondary from 45.1 million to 60.9 million. Universal primary education is likely to require a GER1 = 110% in much of SSA to account for repetition and overage enrolment at modest levels. For this to be achieved the number of primary places already needs to expand on average by 1.3 times those available in 2001. If the school population continues to grow at current rates the number needed will be 1.8 times greater by 2015. If lower secondary was to enrol 100% of those of official entry age on average 4 times as many places are needed than were available in 2001, rising to 5.6 times by 2015. For upper secondary enrolments of 100% the figures are 10.9 and 15.5 times. Clearly for many countries levels of 100% lower secondary enrolment will be difficult to attain without massive increases in capacity (see Annex 2). Increases in enrolments will require many new teachers if pupil teacher ratios are not to increase rapidly. If pupil teacher ratios at primary, lower and upper secondary are assumed to be 40:1, 35:1 and 25:1, the annual growth rate in the number of teachers needed is well above 10% for most SSA countries if enrolment rate targets are set of GER2L (lower secondary) = 100% and GER2U (upper secondary) = 50% (see Annex 2). In many systems this requires the doubling or more of teacher training opportunities in the near future. Analysis leads to conclusions that:

• The total number of primary places needs to be increased by more than 30% by 2015 in about 70% of the countries in the data set. In some case increases needed will approach 100%.

xiv

• There are only eleven countries likely to universalise lower secondary if the

maximum sustainable rate of increase in lower secondary enrolments is 10% a year; if the maximum rate is set at 5% then only five will achieve this goal.

• It will be difficult for most countries to hold primary/secondary transition rates

constant if all primary entrants complete the last year of primary school. Half the countries in the data set will not be able to achieve this unless lower secondary enrolments grow at an average of 10% every year to 2015.

• Targets less than GER2L 100% and GER2U = 50% by 2015 may have to be

set if they are to be achievable, and these will differ between countries depending on country prioritisation of increased access at primary and secondary levels, the resources available, and the costs of expansion. GER2L can continue to rise if growth is planned to ensure this outcome even if transition rates fall for a period.

Conceptualising the Challenge

Strategies for expanding access to secondary depend on existing patterns of participation and the rate of progress towards target levels of enrolment. SSA countries fall into five broad groups in terms of existing patterns of access (See Annex 3). These are those with:

• high participation in primary and secondary, with low rates of repetition and drop out (1);

• very high initial enrolment rates in primary but high drop out and repetition with low completion rates, and falling transition rates into secondary and low participation at secondary (2);

• high primary entry rates and mid levels of repetition, drop out and completion, with mid range secondary participation (3);

• primary entry rates below universal levels, and low primary and secondary enrolment rates (4);

• very low primary entry rates and very low participation though primary and secondary school (5).

These patterns are very different and create different starting points for investment in expanded access to secondary. Where the participation index (the number enrolled/the number in the age group for the grade) is around 100% though to grade 9, then most are already enrolled in lower secondary (type 1). In type 2 initial entry is much greater than the number of children of grade 1 age. However participation rapidly falls off such that by grade 6 enrolments are only about 20% of the age group. Type 3 countries have fewer overage pupils in grade 1 and manage to retain more of them through to grade 9 than is the case for type 2. Type 4 and 5 systems fail to enrol many children in grade 1, and have low and very low participation rates at grade 9. Countries with patterns 4 and 5 may come to resemble pattern 2 if UPE programmes are introduced rapidly. A consolidation of these patterns is illustrated below along with a table elaborating on each type.

Generic Chart of Five Types of Enrolment Pattern

A Typology of Challenges for the Expansion of Secondary in SSA Description Countries Prognosis 1 High GER1,

High GER2L and GER2U, Low Attrition

Seychelles, South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland

High participation rates at all levels and low population growth. Mostly higher income. Secondary expansion needed is modest and likely to be well within domestic resources

2 High GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U, High Attrition

Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique

High GER1 but high attrition through primary grades. Transition rates likely to fall as large numbers of primary entrants flow through to the last grade of primary. Very high rates of secondary expansion needed to maintain transition rates. Financing of secondary expansion problematic even with reforms. More investment in primary quality, reduced repetition, and higher completion needed.

3

High GER1, Mid Range GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Togo, Lesotho, ST + Principe, Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon

High GER 1 with mid range attrition through primary. Difficult to maintain transition rates if primary completion rates increase. Secondary expansion needed to enrol more than 50% through lower secondary. Financing of secondary expansion feasible but requiring reforms

4

Mid Range GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Gambia, Zambia, Kenya, Comoros, Congo, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire

GER1 below 100 with substantial numbers not enrolling or completing primary. Mid range attrition reflects low initial enrolment, high repetition and drop out. Transition rates mid range but participation in secondary low. Substantial expansion needed to reach 50% in lower secondary. Financing of secondary expansion challenging, and in competition with need for more investment to increase GER1. Strategic focus needed.

5 Low GER1, Very Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Guinea, Tanzania, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger

Low GER 1 with most not completing primary. Mid range attrition reflects low entry rates, high repetition and drop out. Transition rates mid range but participation in secondary very low. Massive expansion needed to reach 50% GER in lower secondary. Priority likely to be to finance increased primary participation in advance of modest rates of strategically focused expansion at secondary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticpa

tion

1.Hi GER1 Hi GER2

2.V.Hi GER1V.Low GER2

3.Hi GER1Mid GER2

4.Mid GER1Low GER2

5.Low GER 1V.Low GER2

Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary

1

2

3

4

5

ii

In sum decisions are needed which

• balance progress on universalising access and completion in primary with needs to increase lower secondary participation and enhance gender equity,

• recognise the interactions between primary and secondary expansion (especially in teacher supply and transition rates),

• link upper secondary enrolment growth to labour market needs and those of post school education and training,

• identify sustainable frameworks to provide financial resources.

The Resources Needed

The financial resources needed to support expanded access depend on targets set for desirable enrolment levels. For much of low enrolment SSA a benchmark of GER1 = 110%, GER2L = 60% and GER2U = 30% is an appropriate initial target to aim for by 2015. This would support UPE and allow considerably greater enrolments in lower and upper secondary. The implications have been modelled for forty five countries using demographic and enrolment data linked to existing primary and secondary school systems. In the first instance costs per pupil have been set at 12%, 30% and 60% of GNP per capita for primary, lower and upper secondary respectively. An assumption has been made that the costs of higher education and other education sub-sectors account on average for 20% of total public expenditure. On average 2.3%, 1.5% and 1.2% of GNP per capita is needed to support primary, lower and upper secondary schooling at the projected enrolment rates across low income SSA. This is equivalent to about $3.7, $2.4, and $2.0 billion per year rising to $5.0, $3.2 and $2.7 billion by 20151. Total expenditure on education would need to be about 6.3% of GNP on average to sustain systems with GER1=110%, GER2L=60% and GER2U=30%. This is equivalent to about $10.2 billion rising to $13.5 billion per year by 2015. Overall current educational expenditure in low income SSA appears to average about 3.9% of GNP equivalent to $6.4 billion for countries with GNP per capita below $1500. This is about $3.8 billion less than is needed to sustain systems with the targeted higher enrolment rates. More than 70% of this is accounted for by Nigeria, Cameroon, Uganda, Tanzania, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar and Senegal. The results for each country are in the main text. Several SSA countries are developing plans to universalise lower secondary schooling. The projections have been re-run to establish the effect of targeting GER1=110%, GER2L=100% and GER2U=50%. The result is that on average 2.3%, 2.6% and 2.0% of GNP per capita is needed to support lower and upper secondary schooling at the projected enrolment rates. This is equivalent to about $3.7, $4.1 and $3.3 billion per year in 2001 rising to $4.9, $5.4 billion and $4.5 billion by 2015.

1 Constant 2001 USD and including population growth of school age children

iii

Total expenditure on education would need to be about 8.6% of GNP on average to sustain systems with GER1=110%, GER2L=100% and GER2U=50% in low income SSA. This is equivalent to about $13.9 billion rising to $18.5 billion per year by 2015. This is about $7.5 billion (at 2001 prices) more than is available from current patterns of expenditure. These results are shown in Annex 4. This method of indicating the recurrent financial resources needed compares what would be necessary with what is currently allocated in aggregate. Individual countries may not be allocating resources to primary, secondary and higher education in the proportions they need to achieve GER1 = 110%, GER2L = 60%, and GER2U 30%. In the data set nine countries are already spending as much or more than they need to support these outcomes but are not all achieving them for this reason. If recurrent costs per pupil could be reduced to 12%, 20% and 40% of GNP per capita through packages of reforms the amounts needed for education would fall to about 5% of GNP and the recurrent shortfall to about $1.5 billion per year. If the higher enrolment targets are used, 6.3% of GNP would be needed with a recurrent shortfall of about $3.8 billion a year (see Annex 4). These estimates assume substantial reductions in the costs of higher education and other recurrent expenditure from 20% to about 15% of the total education budget. These lower cost levels imply dramatic reductions in expenditure per pupil at secondary over current levels, especially in low enrolment countries. Efficiency gains of this magnitude would take several years to achieve and may be beyond reach in the short term. These costs are for recurrent expenditure only. The development costs needed across SSA to support expanded enrolment lie largely in the construction of buildings and classrooms. Classroom building costs can be estimated in two ways (i) an average of $10,000 per classroom (ii) an average multiple of GNP per capita. Class sizes of 40:1, 35:1 and 25:1 were adopted for primary, lower and upper secondary to estimate building needs. The result is that at $10,000 per classroom about $39.2 billion would be needed, of which $18.9 billion would be for secondary expansion. If 20, 30 and 40 times GNP per capita is used for primary. lower and upper secondary as the cost of a classroom then the amounts are $18.5 with $14.8 billion for secondary alone. These costs are projected over the period 2002-2015 and thus would amount to nearly $3 billion a year, or more if incurred over a shorter period. If higher enrolment rate targets are chosen then $20.4, $20.3 and $17.8 billion would be needed for primary, lower and upper secondary respectively totalling $58.5 billion by 2015, or at least $4 billion per year using $10,000 per classroom. Building costs might be reduced with community support and competitive procurement. However these cost estimates do not take into account the additional costs of lowering current pupil per classroom ratios where these are high, or of rehabilitation and maintenance of sub-standard facilities. Other development costs are impossible to estimate without detailed planning of separate systems. If provision of learning materials is regarded as development expenditure then additional costs could be substantial. In 2001/2 about 25 million pupils were enrolled in secondary in SSA. By 2015 this number would rise to nearly 50 million if GER2 60% and GER2U 30% were achieved. If four books were provided at an average cost of $5, books lasted 5 years, and the book per pupil ratio

iv

was 2:1, then the cost would be at least $1.1 billion. At primary level numbers are projected to rise from about 90 million to 130 million. At $10 for a set of textbooks per pupil the total needed would be about $1.7 billion annually. These are very rough estimates but give some indication of orders of magnitude. The amounts needed could easily be doubled with higher enrolments and shorter book life. Thus other development costs are of the order of $3 billion per year.

Options for Reforms to Expand Secondary Participation

There are a wide range of options that could result in more participation at affordable costs. A summary list of options is presented in Annex 5. The contribution each option can make is system specific and depends on starting points, political will, and financial and non-financial constraints on growth. Prioritisation will also be influenced by the existing patterns of enrolment at different levels and the distance that needs to be travelled to reach target enrolment levels of GER1=110%, GER2L=60% and GER2U=30% by 2015 for all those countries in Groups 2, 3, 4, and 5. Twelve key policy challenges and associated options can be identified which apply to a greater or lesser extent to all low secondary enrolment countries in SSA. First, the allocation of national resources to education has to be re-considered. The analysis indicates that in general expanded secondary enrolment is unlikely to be financially sustainable for recurrent costs unless more than 5% of GNP is allocated to education, and the amounts could be as high as 8.6% of GNP. In countries with longer secondary cycles and higher ratios of secondary costs as a proportion of GNP per capita, substantially more would be needed. Thus reforms are necessary to decrease costs since these levels are well above most current allocation levels. Second, the salary and non-salary costs per pupil of secondary provision have to fall in most of SSA if higher levels of participation are to be financially sustainable. Public costs per pupil need to fall below 30% and 60% of GNP per capita for lower and upper secondary. Levels as low as 20% and 40% of GNP per capita would bring GER1=110%, GER2L=60% and GER2U=30% within reach in many countries without allocating much more than 5% of GNP to education assuming a budgetary distribution designed to achieve this goal. Third, a balance has to be struck between rates of expansion towards enrolment targets at primary, lower and upper secondary levels. What is appropriate is a policy choice determined in part by current patterns (especially distance from universalising primary), and partly by domestic prioritisation (especially the choice of expanding lower secondary whilst restricting publicly financed growth at upper secondary). Fourth, structural changes in some countries could facilitate higher secondary enrolment rates at affordable costs. The most important options are reducing elective boarding and/or withdrawing boarding subsidies (except where these are essential) through progressive transition to more and more day schooling; double shifting where this can reduce constraints on school capacity pending new construction; and careful scrutiny of the cost benefits associated with high cost specialised secondary level schools when compared to general secondary alternatives.

v

Fifth, better management of the flow of pupils could increase completion rates, lower costs per successful completer, and improve gender equity. This implies strategic intervention to reduce repetition and drop out, eliminate gender related barriers to enrolment and progression, lower direct costs to poor households, and review selection and promotion policy related to public examinations. Sixth, improved teacher deployment is likely to be critical to successful expansion. Much more access could be provided in some systems, if norms for pupil teacher ratios (e.g. 35:1 at lower secondary, and 25:1 at upper secondary) could be applied; similarly class teacher ratios at secondary level could be reduced to less than 2:1 (in some systems 3:1 is not uncommon in secondary schools). In both cases variations between schools could be reduced to say +/- 10% of the average thus improving equity. Seventh, an increased supply of trained teachers will be critical to secondary expansion. Where demand is greatest, and initial training lengthy and expensive, alternative methods will have to be considered. This will include shortening initial training, making more use of in-service and mixed mode training, and agreeing appropriate levels of qualification for new secondary teachers that may be different from in the past. Eighth, changes in school management should be considered that provide some incentives to manage human and physical resources efficiently. This can be linked productively with changed methods of school financing that introduce more elements of formula funding, capitation, local accountability, and whole school development strategies. Ninth, secondary expansion without curriculum reform risks irrelevance and wastage. New populations of school children require curricula that address their needs, respond to changing social and economic circumstances, and recognise resource constraints. Well designed core curricula teachable effectively in all schools leading to valued knowledge, skills and competencies are essential. Tenth, physical capacity needs planned expansion in ways that optimise increase access. This implies effective school mapping, efficient procurement, and medium term planning of construction programmes for new classrooms and schools. Eleventh, expanded secondary access will benefit greatly from successful mechanisms to generate support from the communities that schools serve. There are many possible methods of cost sharing and cost recovery that can and should be facilitated. These need to be developed. They also need to be linked to the capacity of households to support fees and contributions so that they do not become exclusionary. Finally, partnerships with non-government providers should be explored to see what contribution they can make to expanded access. The central policy questions are what relationships should be facilitated, how should they be regulated, and to what extent should public subsidy be directed towards which kinds of non-government providers?

vi

Developing a Road Map for Expanded Secondary Schooling in SSA

Financing the development of secondary schooling is a key issue for SSA. Without attention to the resource implications of expanded access MDG targets will be missed and desired outcomes will remain elusive. Essential requirements are that:

• Education sector reviews should integrate investment strategies at secondary level into their planning processes and PRSPs. This requires national prioritisation and realistic dialogues with development partners.

• National strategies need to be developed which are pro-poor and make more

efficient and equitable and use of public resources. A combination of new policies are needed where participation rates are low, access is highly skewed to the relatively wealthy, transition rates are likely to fall as the number of primary leavers increases, and where there are indications that existing patterns of provision have high costs related to internal inefficiencies.

• Costed plans for the development of secondary education have to be

developed and must shape agreed Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks and Sector Wide Approaches. These should be commissioned within an integrated view of educational investment across all levels and lead to appropriate resource allocation.

Key questions for policy makers and planners include:

• Which sub-sectoral allocation patterns are most likely to result in achievement of the MDGs? How should the competing demands for investment at different levels be resolved?

• How should efficiency gains be achieved that will allow expansion at

affordable levels of cost without unacceptable diminution of quality? Which aspects of school funding systems, teacher deployment, and non-salary expenditure might be most open to reforms that increase internal efficiency and learning effectiveness? Which interventions will have most impact on reducing gender differences?

• How can cost recovery systems be profiled to allow expansion with more

equitable participation that is pro-poor? What are the limits of affordability which will constrain effective demand for secondary schooling? What options might lessen the limits on access this imposes?

• To what extent are non-government providers willing and able to complement

publicly subsidised secondary schooling in ways that are pro-poor, based on appraisals of current provision and likely future developments? What mechanisms can or should be used to subsidise non-government providers bearing in mind the opportunity costs for public systems?

• How much development expenditure needs to be budgeted to service planned

expansion and to maintain and replenish stock and infrastructure?

vii

• What targets should be set in different systems for secondary participation and completion rates?

Qualitative reforms are needed in the structure, content and process of secondary schooling designed to meet the needs and capabilities of students drawn from a wider range of backgrounds than has historically been the case. These need to recognise that school leavers will enter changing labour markets where new knowledge and skills will be needed, and that majorities will neither find livelihoods and jobs in public sector employment, nor proceed to degree level courses. Reform and development of curriculum, pedagogy, learning materials, and assessment and selection systems are all needed so that they are fit for purpose. Where ways forward can be defined they need to costed and planned. Without clear understanding of the resource implications reforms may be still born.

Ways Forward

The main issues which require policy decisions have been identified. A programmatic approach to the development of expanded access to secondary schooling depends on the formulation of short (3-5 years) and medium term (5-10 years) policy objectives specific to particular systems. These need to specify goals, identify resource envelopes and reconcile these with resource requirements to identify gaps that may exist, and assess the key non-financial constraints on growth. This can then constitute the basis for medium term planning to be developed into an implementation strategy. Policy systems, institutional responsibilities, and capacity vary greatly between SSA countries. No one single model is therefore appropriate to all. However it is possible to identify a general way forward to encourage discussion of how a systematic approach might develop into planned expansion of secondary schooling. First, a national co-ordinating structure is needed to manage and develop secondary schooling and associated TVET. This needs close articulation with planning for primary and post secondary education. This co-ordinating structure has to be closely linked to sector development policy and be aware of the resource envelope it can operate within determined by Ministries of Finance. It should involve key stakeholders including those with responsibilities for curriculum, teacher education, school building, production and distribution of learning materials, examinations and selection, and might involve teachers unions, community representatives, and non-government providers. At least five other organisational capabilities are needed to generate coherent medium term plans which can be implemented. These are:

• Finance and Planning Task Group. Managed expansion depends on robust information about system characteristics including school census data on flows of pupils, teacher deployment, school location, facilities, etc. which can be used to project future resource demands under different policy regimes.

• Construction and Procurement Task Group. Expanded capacity requires classroom and school building organised in ways which maximise access and create durable structures to appropriate specifications in a timely manner.

viii

Planned growth will identify future needs and schedule construction in advance of the need for additional school places.

• Curriculum Development Task Group. Curriculum reform should be a rolling process designed to periodically renew learning specifications and material in a sequential way according to consistent pedagogic principles. Core curricula, effective teacher education, and relevant teaching and learning have to build from systematic curriculum development.

• Teacher Education Task Group. If the supply of trained teachers is to be adequate methods of training have to be capable of producing enough trained teachers in advance of when they are needed. Training and in-service support must be adapted to the qualifications and competencies that new entrants have acquired and to new curricula.

• Educational Management Task Group. School effectiveness is primarily a school management concern. Changed management practices may be needed to increase efficiency and effectiveness, improve the quality of learning, and ensure that expanded provision results in worthwhile outcomes. School financing and quality assurance mechanisms may also need reconfiguring.

Concluding Remarks

Participation at secondary level in SSA will grow, and will contribute to achieving the education related MDGs and Dakar Targets. The central issues remain how to finance and manage this growth in ways that are more equitable and efficient, which recognise the non-financial constraints on enrolment growth, and that offer the prospect of improved quality, competence and relevance to those who subsequently enter increasingly competitive national and international labour markets. The role and magnitude of external support that should be committed to enhancing participation at secondary level depends on a consensus about the importance of investment in the sub-sector, the length of time over which enrolment goals are to be met, the balance of existing domestic investment between education sub-sectors, and the priorities set for external assistance from multi and bi-lateral sources. These will differ from country to country within SSA Globally across SSA sustaining GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% would require more than $3.8 billion a year in addition to existing allocations to recurrent expenditure on education, or $7.5 billion if higher enrolment targets are chosen. A further $6 to $8 billion will be required for annually development expenditures depending on the targets chosen. Less might be needed if efficiency gains were substantial which could reduce the shortfall in funding if radical cost saving reforms were implemented. More might be needed if extending secondary schooling to un-served populations turned out to be much more expensive than current provision and if universalising primary schooling requires more resources than currently anticipated. A proportion of these resources could be found from domestic resources where allocation to education is low. In the poorest and lowest enrolment countries external assistance will be essential. Better estimates of costs are needed which are grounded in data from each system, and which are linked to feasible programmes of reform designed to maximise more equitable access and preserve quality. The role and magnitude of external support that

ix

should be committed to enhancing participation at secondary level depends on a consensus about the importance of investment in the sub-sector, the length of time over which enrolment goals are to be met, the balance of existing domestic investment between education sub-sectors, and the profile of external assistance from multi and bi-lateral sources. This book provides an agenda for discussion in an area of policy that will become more and more important over the next decade. The case made is that the MDGs and Dakar goals will only be met through a balanced approach that recognises that investment above the primary school level interacts with the development of universal primary policies, that gender equity is more likely with higher rates of participation at secondary level, and that finance and cost structures for secondary invite serious reform if there is to be much prospect of mass secondary participation in SSA. Expansion without due attention to financial realities will jeopardise quality and achievement, generate disillusion with the costs and benefits of post primary schooling, and miss an opportunities to close the gap between Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions of the world in the educational endowments of its population. The sustainability of EFA will depend on a return to consistent economic growth. This is much more likely with the strategic development of secondary schooling than without it.

x

Annex 1 Executive Summary Participation by Wealth and Gender in SSA

Benin - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Ghana – Participation by Wealth and Gender

Zambia - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Uganda - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Tanzania – Participation by Wealth and Gender

Rwanda - Participation by Wealth and Gender

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male

Rich/FemaleMiddle/MaleMiddle/FemalePoor/MalePoor/Female

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion

Rich/MaleRich/FemaleMiddle/MaleMiddle/FemalePoor/MalePoor/Female

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male

Rich/Female

Middle/Male

Middle/Female

Poor/Male

Poor/Female

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

8+ JSS

Part

icap

tion

(%) Rich/Male


xi

Annex 2 Executive Summary Population Growth and Increases in School Places and Teachers Needed in SSA

Percentage of School Age children in the Population in SSA

School Age Population Growth Rates in SSA

Increase Needed in Lower Secondary Places to reach GER2L = 100% by 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nig

erU

R T

anza

nia

Cha

dBu

rkin

a Fa

soM

ozam

biqu

eU

gand

aM

alaw

iM

ali

Buru

ndi

Gui

nea-

Biss

auR

wan

daM

adag

asca

rEt

hiop

iaSe

nega

lU

nwei

ghte

d Av

erag

eG

uine

aC

omor

osC

ongo

Beni

nKe

nya

Eritr

eaEq

uato

rial G

uine

aZa

mbi

aC

amer

oon

Nig

eria

Côt

e d'

Ivoi

reG

ambi

aTo

goLe

soth

oS

T +

Prin

cipe

Swaz

iland

Gha

naZi

mba

bwe

Nam

ibia

Bots

wan

aM

aurit

ius

Cap

e Ve

rde

Seyc

helle

sSo

uth

Afric

a[1]

Mul

tiplie

r for

Enr

olm

ents

Annual Growth Rate of Primary and Secondary School Teachers Needed to Achieve GER1=110%, GER2L 100%, and GER2U 50% in 2015

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Niger

Burkina

Faso

Mali

Ethiop

iaCha

d

Eritrea

Congo

Guniea

-Biss

au

Mozam

bique

Rwanda

U. R. T

anza

nia

Malawi

Guinea

Benin

Madag

asca

r

Seneg

al

Comoro

s

Burund

i

Zambia

Gambia

Ugand

a

Camero

on

Côte d’

Ivoire

E. Guin

ea

Nigeria

Ghana

Zimba

bwe

TogoKen

ya

S. T. a

nd Prin

cipe

Namibi

a

Leso

tho

Swazila

nd

South

Africa

Botswan

a

Mauriti

us

Perc

ent G

row

th

PrimarySecondary

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Mau

ritiu

sSo

uth

Afr

ica

Cap

e Ver

deLe

soth

oZi

mba

bwe

Ken

ya

Seyc

helle

sSw

azila

ndBu

rund

iBo

tsw

ana

Gab

onG

hana

Cam

eroo

nM

ozam

biqu

eSe

nega

lN

amib

iaC

entr

al A

f. R

epub

lic

Uni

ted

Rep

of T

anza

nia

Beni

nZa

mbi

aD

Rep

. of t

he C

ongo

Gui

nea

Nig

eria

Togo

Ethi

opia

Gam

bia

Equa

tori

al G

uine

aC

omor

os

Sao

Tom

e and

Pri

ncip

eM

ali

Cha

dM

adag

asca

rBu

rkin

a Fa

soC

ongo

Gui

nea-

Biss

auA

ngol

aU

gand

aEr

itrea

Sier

ra L

eone

Nig

erM

alaw

iR

wan

daSo

mal

iaLi

beri

a

Rat

e of

Grw

oth

of S

choo

l Age

Pop

ulat

ion

Series1

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Seyc

helle

sM

aurit

ius

Sao

Tom

e and

Prin

cipe

Libe

riaEr

itrea

Rwan

daG

ambi

aG

uine

a-Bi

ssau

Som

alia

Sout

h A

frica

Equa

toria

l Gui

nea

Ang

ola

Sier

ra L

eone

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Botsw

ana

Com

oros

Gha

naEt

hiop

iaLe

soth

oN

iger

iaG

uine

aN

iger

Ken

yaZa

mbi

aD

Rep

. of t

he C

ongo

Nam

ibia

Cape

Ver

deM

ozam

biqu

eBu

rkin

a Fa

soCo

ngo

Chad

Togo

Mal

iSw

azila

ndCe

ntra

l Af.

Repu

blic

Sene

gal

Uni

ted

Rep

of T

anza

nia

Beni

nG

abon

Cam

eroo

nU

gand

aZi

mba

bwe

Buru

ndi

Per

cent

age

of S

choo

l Age

Chi

ldre

n

xii

Annex 3 Executive Summary Enrolment Patterns in SSA – A Typology of Countries Group 1; High GER1, High GER2U and GER2U, Low Attrition

High GER1, LowGER2L and GER2U, High Attrition

Group 3; High GER1, Mid Range GER2L and GER2U; Mid Range Attrition

Group 4; Mid Range GER1, Low GER2L GER2U; Mid Range Attrition

Group 5; Low GER1, Very Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid range Attrition.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Pat

icip

atio

n Seychelles GER1 114South Africa GER1 106Botswana GER1 103Mauritius GER1 104Namibia GER1 105Zimbabwe GER1 94Swaziland GER1 98

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Uganda GER1 141Rwanda GER1 122Equatorial Guinea GER1 126Malawi GER1 140Madagascar GER1 120Mozambique GER1 103

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Togo GER1 121Lesotho GER1 126S. T. + Principe GER1 126Nigeria GER1 119Benin GER1 109Cameroon GER1 108

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n Gambia GER1 85Zambia GER1 82Kenya GER1 92Comoros GER1 90Congo GER1 80Ghana GER1 79Côte d'Ivoire GER1 78

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Guinea GER1 82U. R. Tanzania GER1 84Eritrea GER1 63Ethiopia GER1 66Senegal GER1 80Mali GER1 58Guinea-Bissau GER1 70Burundi GER1 77Chad GER1 78Burkina Faso GER1 46Niger GER1 43.5

xiii

Annex 4 Executive Summary Costs of Secondary Expansion GER1=110,GER2L=60,GER2U=30 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 30% GNP/cap; U Sec=60% GNP/Cap, HE+ 20%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000

Primary 2.3% 3,746,766 4,953,269 Lower Secondary 1.5% 2,432,571 3,221,321 Upper Secondary 1.2% 2,007,447 2,670,555 Other incl HE 1.3% 2,046,696 2,711,286 Total 6.3% 10,233,479 13,556,431 3.9% 6,390,486 3,842,993 GER1=110,GER2L=100,GER2U=50 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 30% GNP/cap; U Sec=60% GNP/Cap, HE+ 20%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000

Primary 2.3% 3,746,766 4,953,269 Lower Secondary 2.6% 4,054,284 5,368,868 Upper Secondary 2.0% 3,345,745 4,450,925 Other incl HE 1.7% 2,786,699 3,693,265 Total 8.6% 13,933,494 18,466,327 3.9% 6,390,486 7,543,008

Baseline Enrolment Targets, Cost Saving Reforms GER1=110,GER2L=60,GER2U=30 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 20% GNP/cap; U Sec=40% GNP/Cap, HE+ = 15%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000

Primary 2.3% 3,746,766 4,953,269 Lower Secondary 1.0% 1,621,714 2,147,547 Upper Secondary 0.8% 1,338,298 1,780,370 Other incl HE 0.7% 1,183,746 1,567,529 Total 4.8% 7,890,524 10,448,715 3.9% 6,390,486 1,500,037 Higher Enrolment Targets, Cost Saving Reforms GER1=110,GER2L=100,GER2U=50 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 20% GNP/cap; U Sec=40% GNP/Cap, HE+ = 15%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000


Annex 5 Executive Summary

Summary Table of Options for Expanded Secondary Schooling at Affordable Costs Topic Options Options Options Options Options Allocation of National Resources

Increase share of GNP for Education where it is low

Increase share of education in public expenditure

Increase allocations to secondary within public expenditure

Increase external contributions to financing education

Structures Shorten the length of education cycles where this is 13 years; consider 6:3:3 pattern or 6:4:2

Extend primary schools upwards to cover lower secondary grades.

Limit enrolments in high cost technical and vocational secondary schools linked to labour market demand

Increase average school size, especially at secondary level.

Phased expansion of lower secondary before growth in upper secondary

Double shift schools where population density is high

Reduce subsidised non- essential boarding

School Financing Review teacher salaries, scales and ratios of salary costs as % GNP

Reduce non-teaching salary budgets where these are excessive

Reduce non-salary costs but protect expenditure on learning materials

Formula based school funding to improve equity and flow of funds to schools

School improvement grants targeted on quality improvement

Improve Flows of Pupils

Reduce repetition to release school places for new entrants, consider automatic promotion

Reduce drop out to increase completion rates, reduce direct costs to households where this is a cause of drop out

Change selection and promotion methods and improving the flow of pupils; Review promotion and selection policy

Improve attendance to 95% or more to maximise learning opportunities

Pro-poor bursaries and scholarships to encourage participation from low income households

Teacher Deployment

Increase pupil teacher ratios where these are low to a maximum of 35:1 at lower secondary and 25:1 at upper secondary

Reduce class teacher ratios where these are high to below 2:1 at secondary level

Reduce variation in pupil teacher ratios and class teacher ratios between schools towards +/- 10% of the average

Increase the proportion of teaching assistants and temporary teachers where these can complement the use of trained teachers, encourage younger teachers to remain in teaching

Include periods of self instruction, peer to peer learning, distance and mixed mode delivery for senior pupils

School Management

Provide incentives to increase efficiency of school management of human and physical resources

Reduce teacher absenteeism to less than 5%

Increase time on task of pupils through effective timetabling and full use of the teaching days in the year

Increase teaching hours in contact with pupils through better timetabling and monitoring of workload norms.

xv

Reformed Curricula and Pedagogy; More Learning Materials

Systematic curriculum reform at lower and upper secondary level to increase relevance and teachability

More modularisation of learning, possible use of multi-grade, greater emphasis on outcomes

Develop core curriculum with reduced number of subjects, produce core learning materials at low cost

Develop effective methods to finance and distribute learning materials to meet target text book per pupil ratios for core subjects.

Consider textbook loan schemes and revolving funds to build stock of learning materials.

Restructured Teacher Education

Review teacher training structures to establish if they can meet growing demand at affordable costs.

Decide mix of qualification levels of teachers (completed secondary +? Graduates etc.)

Consider shorter initial training supplemented by in-service support, mixed mode training

Review teacher education curricula for fitness for purpose and decide mix of subject upgrading and pedagogic training

Train teachers to teach several subjects

Construction Develop procurement system for expanded programme of school and classroom construction

Develop standardised school and classroom designs within affordable costs

Undertake school mapping exercises to locate new secondary schools in areas of need

Identify specifications and needs for specialised facilities especially at upper secondary level

Explore multi use designs for new buildings

Cost Recovery Review policy on tuition fees at secondary; consider fee waivers and bursaries as an alternative to fee free provision.

Review policy on facilities fees and other levies to establish costs of attendance and need for subsidies to low income house holds.

Consider textbook loan schemes and revolving funds for learning materials

Withdraw subsidies for non essential boarding

Facilitate voluntary fund raising by communities and schools; consider matching grants

Facilitate contributions in kind to school feeding programmes and labour and materials for construction

Facilitate revenue generating activity where appropriate e.g. sale of goods and services, charges for the use of facilities

Facilitate links with local employers and sponsorship

Consider efficacy of educational taxes

Consider efficacy of loan schemes and micro credit financing

Non Government Providers

Locate non-government providers in secondary development strategy and map contributions they may make to expanded provision for different household income groups.

Review what level and type of facilitation is appropriate for non-government providers (for profit and not for profit)

Decide what regulation is desirable and necessary for non-government providers; identify the costs and benefits

Consider providing access to subsidised and low cost learning material to non-government providers.

Consider extent of access to government services e.g. in-service training, for non-government providers.

SEIA Thematic Study #1 Cost and financing of Secondary Education and Training Keith Lewin, University of Sussex Page 1 of 163

1

Main Text



Keith M Lewin Introduction Secondary education in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces many challenges. Demand for access is increasing dramatically as primary schooling is universalised, the achievement of the Dakar and Millennium Development Goals depends in part on expanded secondary systems, and economic growth is widely believed to depend on knowledge and skill acquired beyond primary education. Secondary schooling can provide access to abstract thinking and analytic competencies that enhance competitiveness in knowledge based economic activity in a climate of technological change and globalised trading of goods and services. SSA lags behind other regions in the proportion of its labour force completing both lower and upper secondary cycles, and needs to replenish the human capital it has lost to HIV and AIDs, and through conflict. Investment in secondary education has been the missing link in many recent education development plans. The need to address the issues of sustainable strategies to expand access and reform secondary school systems was voiced strongly at the first and second Regional Conferences on Secondary Education in Africa (SEIA) held in Kampala in 2003 and Dakar in 2004 and at the SEIA meeting for Development Agencies in Amsterdam in 20042.

“I am convinced that basic education for all is still indisputably a priority for Africa. Nevertheless, the very fact that it is still a priority calls strongly for increased attention and greater efforts with regard to other levels of the system…..Clearly from this perspective secondary education is a leading concern for several reasons… First, basic education is increasingly viewed with a long term vision that would extend compulsory schooling to the age of 16, thus including the first cycle of secondary education. Second, the progress made towards universal primary education directly results in greater pressure on secondary education and heightened demand from pupils and their families in both quantitative and qualitative terms. A third reason is that the continually increased complexity of human existence and the world of work, spurred along by the information society and our knowledge based economy, demand a level of preparation for young Africans that goes far beyond five or six years of primary education. …This is why we advocate a significant expansion of access to secondary education. The African governments and their development partners urgently need to provide proper responses to this need, or else risk

2 See http://www.worldbank.org/afr/seia/


2

breakdowns and inadequacies that will create social and political tensions and conflicts that will prove increasingly difficult to handle”. (Ndoye 2003 Executive Secretary, Association for the Development of Education in Africa (ADEA))

Contributions to the first and second Regional Conference on Secondary Education in Africa (Kampala, Uganda, June 2003, Dakar, Senegal, June 2004) indicate the growing importance African Ministries of Education attach to policy for expanded secondary schooling3. Several countries are now actively developing new policy. Uganda is implementing its new strategy for post primary education and training. Tanzania has reached agreement with the World Bank on the Secondary Education Development Programme. Rwanda is introducing nine year basic education and Zambia is developing its plans for upper basic and high schools. The World Bank now recognises that “secondary education is back on the agenda of developing countries, after a period of historical neglect. Far from being the weakest link in education systems, it is now emerging as the cornerstone of the transformational process of education. We have to acknowledge that over the past two decades our education strategy has given less attention to secondary education than to primary and tertiary education, and we are focusing anew on the important links between all levels of education” (World Bank 2005:xi). This study of the costs and financing of secondary education in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was commissioned SEIA programme of the World Bank. It has several components. The main report synthesises the issues and the policy implications that arise from the analysis. First it reviews the case for enhanced investment in secondary education systems to support the Education for All (EFA) process and achieve the relevant Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In some SSA countries this case has already been made and accepted, in others where investment in secondary schooling has stalled the case still needs making, as it does to some development partner agencies. Second, it develops an analytic review of the status of secondary schooling in SSA which highlights patterns of enrolment, structures of provision, and the diversity of starting points for improved access, more equitable participation, and improved quality. Third, patterns of growth are explored and linked to the resources needed if growth is to be managed in sustainable ways. This section models different patterns of secondary expansion in SSA countries, identifies groups of countries which face similar challenges for lower and upper secondary schooling, and indicates the magnitude of the financial resources needed to achieve different outcomes by 2015. Fourth, options for affordable expansion are reviewed which illustrate the range of possible strategies that can be adopted. Finally, suggestions are made of ways forward drawing on the analyses of previous sections that identify key issues for policy dialogue and steps necessary to develop a road map for implementing reform. The main report is accompanied by three country based sets of projections and analysis of costs and other resource needs. These are derived from recent analytic work on national plans in Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda using national data sets on enrolments, costs, and educational finance. Uganda has relatively high secondary enrolment rates, high levels of non-government provision, and a lively debate about the role of diversified curricula and TVET in post primary provision. Tanzania has had one of the

3 See www.worldbank.org/afr/seia for details.


3

lowest secondary participation rates in SSA, may be losing ground to surrounding countries which have higher proportions of secondary graduates in the labour force, and has large inequalities in access to secondary schools related to poverty and location. Rwanda has made rapid progress at primary level towards high levels of enrolment, wishes to extend mass provision to Tonc Commun, and faces both financial and non-financial constraints on growth not least those related to the supply of trained teachers, which require a balanced medium term plan. The results of the central projections are summarised to illustrate the range of issues that arise. In addition three more detailed country case studies have been completed in Benin (Debourou, Gnimadi, Caillods, and Abraham, 2005), Ghana (Akyeampong K 2005) and Zambia (Bennell, Bulwani, and Musikanga, 2005). These explore the policy context, the status of secondary education, and aspects of costs and financing. From these analyses key issues are identified for policy dialogue and strategic planning. Benin has low secondary enrolments, large gender related differences in provision, high levels of untrained and contract secondary teachers, and substantial inequalities in access. Ghana has achieved high levels of enrolment at junior secondary level as a result of previous reforms. However there are signs that participation rates are no longer growing, levels of achievement indicate problems with quality, and access to upper secondary remains inequitable. In Zambia secondary participation rates have risen very slowly and are in the mid range for SSA. Large disparities exist between urban and rural areas, structural issues remain unresolved between upper basic and high schools, and quasi-private academic performance units have been permitted in some schools to respond to excess demand. The case studies illustrate the need to analyse the prospects for balanced growth at secondary level in relation to specific histories, starting points, and financial and non-financial constraints.


4

Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem: Why Secondary Education? Across Sub-Saharan Africa the numbers of primary graduates are rising rapidly as a result of successful Education for All programmes. The Millennium Development Goals commit countries to greater educational access to basic education which generally includes lower secondary grades. HIV and AIDs have degraded human resources, as has conflict. Poverty reduction requires more equitable distribution of educational opportunities, economic growth depends on investment in higher levels of knowledge and skill enhanced by lower and upper secondary schooling, and curricula and learning and teaching have to be reformed to improve relevance and increase effectiveness. Secondary education has been an area of policy neglect (World Bank, 2005). An analysis of 28 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) from SSA confirms that policy on secondary is often at best an afterthought and a residual consideration, and at worst is conspicuous by its absence. More than half these PRSPs devote little or no attention to secondary expansion. Seven refer to needs to expand secondary and improve quality but do so without linking development to the competing demands of other educational levels, or to the resource implications. The remainder include some aspirational targets most often related to increased primary/secondary transition rates. None appear to project costs and necessary budget shares for secondary; nor do they recognise the non-financial constraints on secondary expansion or the need to reform structure and content when moving towards mass enrolment. What is needed and what is possible depends on current patterns of enrolment, clearly articulated education sector development strategies, and appropriate allocation of resources. Priorities will differ between those SSA countries that still have low Gross Enrolment Rates (GER1) at primary and those that are approaching near universal levels of access, and between countries that have different mixes of participation in secondary schools. The length of primary and secondary cycles varies widely. Access to and completion of lower secondary increasingly determines life chances as primary becomes universalised. Upper secondary in most of SSA remains selective and more specialised, and is directed towards further education and training. In some systems technical and vocational institutions are separate from general secondary schools and in others they are more integrated. The mix of public and private financing is also extremely varied. This variegated landscape denies a “one size fits all” approach to reform and invites new analysis of the challenges that confront secondary education in different countries in SSA. There are six main reasons why it is timely to revisit investment policy for secondary schooling in the context of the MDGs in ways that complement and support the achievement of universalise primary education, gender equity, and strategies for poverty reduction and economic growth.


5

Primary Expansion

First, the programmes to universalise primary education launched at the Jomtien and Dakar World Conferences are now leading to rapid increases in the numbers of pupils completing primary school in much of SSA. If all children currently enrolled in grade 1 were to reach grade 6 the numbers leaving primary school seeking access to secondary will more than double in SSA. If those not currently enrolled are included as well, output from primary school systems could increase by 250% soon after 2010. If all primary leavers were to be enrolled in lower secondary between four and seven times as many places would be needed at this level. In Uganda the number of primary school leavers will increase from 400,000 to over 1 million; in Tanzania, from 450,000 to 1.2 million, and in Rwanda from 110,000 to 260,000 if projected increases in entry and completion rates take place over the next six years. Existing secondary school systems cannot absorb such large increases without reform and new patterns of financing. Access to secondary school will become a major political and social preoccupation in those countries with low secondary enrolment rates and successful EFA programmes that universalise primary schooling. Pupils will leave primary school below the age of legal employment and will need access to education and training opportunities through to the age of 15 years and beyond. Policy response are needed that can manage secondary expansion in the light of these pressures and needs.

Millenium Development Goals (MDG)

Second, expanded access is necessary because the achievement of the second goal (MDG2 – achieve universal primary education) and the third (MDG3 – promote gender equality and empower women through eliminating gender disparities in primary and secondary schools) are both unachievable without expanded secondary schooling. So also are other MDGs4 and the Dakar Goals. MDG2 depends on transition rates to secondary being maintained or increased. If they fall dramatically, retention in upper primary will decrease and completion rates fall as it becomes clear that the chances of progression to higher educational levels are diminishing. Transition rates to secondary have been static over the last decade in much of SSA and appear to have fallen where primary growth has been fastest. MDG2 also depends on an adequate supply of qualified primary teachers (Lewin and Stuart 2003). Quality, achievement and persistence will decline without adequate numbers successfully completing secondary schooling and electing to train as teachers. The number of pupils per (qualified) teacher will remain stubbornly high. Ghana would 4 Altogether there are eight MDGs and eighteen associated targets. At least six of the targets appear to depend directly on enhanced access to secondary schooling. Thus halving the proportion of people who live on less than a dollar a day (T1), reversing the spread of HIV (T7), implementing strategies for decent and productive work for youth (T16), and supporting the use of ICTs (T18) would all seem to require mass access to secondary schooling. Eight other targets appear to have indirect dependence. These include halving the proportion of those who suffer from hunger (T2), reducing child mortality (T5), improving maternal health (T6), reversing the incidence of malaria (T8), gaining support for sustainable development policies (T9), halving the proportion of people with out access to clean water (T10), improving the lives of slum dwellers (T11), and developing an open, rule based, predictable and non discriminatory trading system (T12).


6

have to triple its output of primary teachers if it were to reach universal primary completion. Malawi continues to be forced to accept into primary teacher training candidates with only two years of secondary schooling to meet demand. Rwanda has over 85% of its primary schools double shifted at grades 1-3 and repetition rates that have exceeded 25% as does Benin. In both cases part of the reason is the insufficient supply of primary teachers and their low educational levels. MDG3 cannot be reached without greater enrolments of girls at secondary level. This is both because gender equity at secondary can only be achieved if enrolment rates for girls grow faster than boys5, and because girls will not persist in primary schools if few girls access secondary, especially if transition rates fall. There are only two countries in SSA with Gross Enrolment Rates at Secondary (GER2) of less than 50% that have more girls than boys the enrolled in secondary6. These are Lesotho and Swaziland and migration explains much of the pattern. All other low enrolment SSA countries have more boys than girls. Girls need role models to inspire them to continue their education and to reap the personal and social development benefits that can result in empowerment. Gender differences in enrolment rates in SSA in favour of boys at secondary level are almost always greater than differences in the same systems at primary. Achievement differences between boys and girls also often become more exaggerated at secondary level than at primary. MDG2 implies not only equal participation, but more equal levels of achievement. This is more likely with higher levels of participation7.

HIV and AIDS

Third, HIV and AIDS (MDG6) is damaging prospects for development and has reached epidemic proportions in the worst affected countries. The consequences permeate all aspects of development. HIV and AIDS increases morbidity and mortality amongst teachers, creates unprecedented numbers of orphans in and out of school8, undermines regular attendance at school especially for girl carers, and suppresses economic growth through its impact on labour force productivity. Secondary schooling has special roles to play in influencing informed choice related to sexual behaviour, increasing tolerance and support for those infected, and through the reduced risk associated with higher levels of education. The pandemic is complex. What is known is that seropositive rates generally peak in the mid to late twenties (earlier for young women than young men), rates for secondary school age children tend to be much lower than for those in their early twenties, those with more education

5 Assuming lowering enrolment rates for boys is not an option 6 In the UNESCO Institute of Statistics data base. 7 Where entry to secondary schooling is gendered in favour of boys, selection effects should mean that girls outperform boys. Often they do not, suggesting differences in performance will only reduced with changed learning and teaching methods and other interventions designed to increase participation to the end of the cycle. 8 Evidence on orphans access to secondary schooling is inconclusive with some studies showing strong exclusionary effects and others showing little difference in attendance rates (see UN AIDS 2000, World Bank 2002).


7

tend to have lower rates than those with less9, and that teachers (who have higher levels of education than the general population) are in many cases at lower risk than others of the same ages. Those in school are less at risk than those out of school (especially females) (Gregson et al 2001:481). HIV prevalence rates are lower among teenagers who are in school in Burundi, Eritrea, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. There may be several mechanisms which generate these outcomes10. Whatever the mechanism the simple conclusion is straightforward. Expanded access to secondary schooling, ceteris paribus, should reduce HIV and AIDS infection rates and increase the probability of achieving MDG6. It may also reduce teacher mortality and reduce attrition making it more manageable to meet the demand for teachers which is central to the achievement of MDG2.

Equity and Social Mobility

Fourth, poverty reduction has direct links with investment and participation at secondary level. As primary schooling becomes universalised, it will be participation at secondary level that becomes a major determinant of life chances, and a major source of subsequent inequity. Access to, and success in, secondary will continue to be highly correlated with subsequent employment and with income distribution patterns. Many groups are marginalized from attendance by high direct costs, absence of schools, and other historic disadvantages. In much of SSA households outside the top two deciles of income are simply unable to afford a single child in government or private secondary schools. In Tanzania enrolment rates in the richest 20% of households are more than 20 times those in the poorest 40% of households (Lewin 2004). In Uganda those from households below the second decile of household income are unlikely to be enrolled (Lewin 2002). In Zambia the poorest 40% of households are at least ten times less likely to have a child in lower secondary school, than those from the richest 20% of households. In Ghana 40% of entrants to the University of Ghana originated from just 5% of the secondary schools, many of which are high fee paying private schools. These patterns of participation appear to be becoming more skewed as pressure for access increases (Addae-Mensah 2000). Current patterns of public investment in secondary schooling in SSA tend to be regressive with household income (i.e. rich households receive a disproportionate proportion of the benefits). If public subsidy is regressive, the solution is not restrict access since this will worsen income distribution and increase exclusion. Poverty reduction is more likely with expanded access that can redistribute opportunity and lead to real improvements in the upward social mobility of the poor11. For this to happen direct costs will have to fall to levels which are widely affordable, subsidies will need to 9 Thus in Uganda it appears that rates for those with primary education were nearly double those for those with secondary (AIDS Information Centre, Kampala,2000) and that time series data now shows that rates of infection have fallen fastest for those with secondary schooling, and not at all for those with no primary education (Global Monitoring Report 2005 :45). 10 E.g. reduced opportunity for casual sex, greater understanding of causes and effects, recognition of safe sex messages, more motivation to remain healthy and invest in the future. 11 Even if current patterns of investment are regressive in terms of household income, the marginal benefit of expansion would clearly favour redistribution by enrolling those from poorer households currently excluded.


8

be directed to those from poor households (e.g. bursaries), and fair means of selection will be necessary that recognise disadvantage.

Economic Growth and Human Capital

Fifth, national competitiveness, especially in high value added modern sector economic activity, depends on knowledge, skills and competencies associated with abstract reasoning, analysis, language and communication skills, and the applications of science and technology (Lewin 2000). Without this competitiveness, economic growth will falter, government revenues will stagnate, and public educational financing at all levels will problematic. There is much evidence to suggest that those with secondary schooling increase their chances of formal sector employment and informal sector livelihoods and acquire useful skills from secondary schooling, and that export led growth is associated more with investments at secondary than at primary level (World Bank 1999, 1993, Appleton 2001, Knight and Sabot 1990, Wood and Mayer 1999, Wood and Ridao-Cano 1996). Recent analyses (World Bank 2005) provide extensive citation of studies that confirm the significance of investment in secondary schooling for economic growth and conclude that “countries that have experienced the most rapid and sustainable increases in educational attainment, as well as outstanding economic performance, have pursued balanced upgrading of the primary, secondary and tertiary levels of education” (ibid:19). Fast growing countries have had more even patterns of investment between primary, secondary and tertiary education than slow growing countries and have had greater secondary participation relative to other levels than slow growing countries (ibid:140)12. In SSA countries with low secondary enrolment, less than 20% and often less than 10% of the labour force has successfully completed schooling to the end of lower secondary. This compares very unfavourably with other regions of the world where average Gross Enrolment Rates (GER2) are much higher – SSA GER2 25%, South and West Asia 48%, Arab States 59%, East Asia and the Pacific 69%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 86%. In some SSA countries HIV and AIDS has debilitated one third or more of the labour force. Economic growth depends on replacing those lost and on building a new work force with higher levels of knowledge and skill. The same is true in post conflict countries where a generation may have missed out on secondary schooling. Demobilised militia left with unfulfilled promises of some sort of opportunity to re-enter available employment and livelihoods, may well experience exclusion with adverse social consequences. It clearly is possible that labour markets can be saturated with secondary school graduates if output exceeds demand by a wide margin. However it is not clear that this is generally the case in SSA. Secondary graduates may not find jobs immediately but most appear to be absorbed into labour markets over time. Their earnings are invariably higher than those with only primary schooling. There are frequent observations that skill shortages persist. Many of these depend on education and training above primary

12 Taking into account lags between enrolment rates and subsequent economic growth.


9

level. Balanced growth is needed linked to learning outcomes that are economically relevant.

Curriculum

Sixth, secondary curricula often lack relevance and utility, are embedded in elite traditions of academic schooling unsuited to mass systems, use outmoded pedagogies, and are dominated by the narrow requirements of high stakes selection examinations, rather than led by demand related to livelihoods, jobs and social priorities. In Benin general secondary education still reflects the legacy of the colonial period and is substantially unchanged, in Zambia the last revisions date from 1986, in Uganda from the early 1980s, and in Ghana from 1987 (see Case Studies). This is confirmation of the neglect of secondary schooling in the domestic and international policy debate. In all the poorest countries textbooks and other curriculum materials are widely unavailable or in short supply and much learning takes place without access to any printed material (e.g. Buchan, Foster and Read, 2002). Non-salary budget allocations to provide learning material and to improve textbook quality are often derisory. Few secondary curricula are outcomes based, rather than content driven, and most offer more to those who continue to study than to the majority who exit before or at the end of the cycle. Curriculum materials rarely if ever recognise the realities of irregular attendance and high rates of repetition. Science and technology are taught often under conditions where effective teaching will be difficult to achieve (Ottevanger et al 2004) Critically if secondary education is to expand, the characteristics of learners will change, and what they learn will need redefinition. Most secondary systems are ill prepared for the transition and remain embedded in modes of learning and conceptualisations of secondary schooling which are based on limited access by highly selected students, leading to higher education and employment in small modern sectors with a high proportion of public sector jobs. The future looks different. It invites support for strategic curriculum reform that can encourage creative and effective innovations in learning and teaching, new methods of assessment capable of capturing valued learning outcomes, and selection of content and thinking skills that are more relevant for entrants to diverse labour markets, and to a much broader range of learners. This is most true in relation to science and technology, information and communications, and for a raft of higher level intellectual, language and social competences that can be traded domestically and internationally, in both manufacturing and the service sector.

Key Issues for Costs and Finance

Increased secondary participation within current cost structures in SSA is severely constrained (Colclough with Lewin, 1993, Lewin and Caillods 2001, Lewin 2006b). The basic arithmetic of the dilemma is straightforward. Typical national budgeting patterns in low enrolment countries in SSA allocate relatively small amounts of public expenditure on education to secondary level. In Malawi, Tanzania and Ethiopia secondary absorbs less than 10%, whilst primary accounts for 65% or more. In these countries, where the GER2 can be less than 15%, increases in secondary level participation to say GER2 60% without reforms would require a quadrupling of


10

allocations to secondary which could absorb approaching half the public budget. This is impossible, especially where there are EFA and Fast Track Initiative (FTI) commitments to protect spending on primary. Public expenditure per pupil at lower secondary level across SSA countries averages about three times that at primary, and about six times that at upper secondary. The ratios may be two or three times greater for specialised technical and vocational institutions (Akyeampong 2003). The averages conceal wide variations with the highest relative costs in the lowest enrolment rate countries where a secondary place may cost more than 10 times as much as one at primary. This fact alone means that substantial increases in access will be difficult to finance in a sustainable way without reforms. Relative costs per pupil will have to fall to levels closer to those found in high enrolment SSA countries if the development gains associated with expanded secondary are to be achieved. Significantly countries with higher rates of economic growth have had more even patterns of per pupil expenditure at different levels than slower growing countries (World Bank 2005:143). There are several options to support growth in participation. First, there is scope to increase the proportion of public expenditure allocated to secondary where this is exceptionally low (i.e. less than 15%). It is also the case that where total allocations for secondary are less than those for the tertiary level (the case in several SSA countries including Tanzania, Malawi, and Rwanda) investment patterns may appear unbalanced. Where more than 60% of public education budgets are allocated to primary there may also be questions about what the opportunity costs are of privileging the enrolment and completion of the last primary school child, desirable though this is, over development at other levels. More balanced investment patterns may have more impact on the economic growth needed to sustain universal primary education (World Bank 2005:138). The achievement of participation targets at different levels has to be phased accordingly. Second, efficiency gains could contribute considerably to increased access at lower costs per pupil relative to GNP. This could be achieved though a combination of more efficient deployment of teachers, realignment of teachers salaries, reductions in non teaching costs, and changes in structure and curriculum that could lower the cost per successful secondary school graduate. Pupil Teacher Ratios can be below 20:1 in low secondary enrolment countries, and teacher workloads may be as little as 30% of timetable teaching time. Where class-teacher ratios exceed 2:1, more pupils could be enrolled with more efficient working practices and more even distribution of teachers between schools. Teachers’ salaries, the main cost in day schools, have to be set at levels that (i) make expanded access possible, (ii) continue to motivate those in post, and (iii) attract suitable new entrants to the teaching profession. The first can be calculated from national data on the numbers of secondary school age children, desired participation rates at lower and upper secondary, and minimum cost per pupil needed to operate schools effectively. The second and third depend on conditions in national labour markets. Where non–teaching costs are high because of boarding by choice rather than necessity, the amount of boarding should be reduced or some of the costs recovered. Where non-teaching staff are a substantial proportion of the numbers of teaching staff the reasons need to be scrutinized and cost savings explored. Some structural changes could produce savings that increase access. Long secondary school systems may be inefficient and costly. Some curriculum structures (e.g. policy on


11

repetition, large numbers of optional subjects) can create inefficiencies. The location, enrolment, and selection processes associated with different patterns of secondary schooling may also influence attendance, drop out, and completion. Third, selective cost recovery, with appropriate safeguards to protect the participation of the poor, could ease the financial burden of expansion. This applies especially to non-essential boarding. Expansion should increase the proportion of day schools and reduce costs since subsidized boarding can account for half or more of total cost per pupil13. This is already policy in Benin, Ghana, Tanzania, Rwanda and Zambia. Fees at secondary level are not uncommon across SSA (tuition fees and various facilities fees). Systems which adopt selective fee waivers and/or bursaries for the poor can deliver greater enrolment for similar costs than those which are completely fee free. They are also more equitable. Revolving textbook loan schemes and other forms of subsidy for learning materials can have a considerable impact on availability which is linked to levels of achievement. Fourth, non-government providers have a role to play in expansion. This is a complex area since non-government providers are highly differentiated and funded in many different ways (Bray 1997:188, Lewin and Sayed, 2005). Some are subsidized from public funds and others are not. Well established institutions with effective governance co-exist alongside fragile, unstable and unregulated private providers operating for profit. Pupils who attend fee paying non-government schools with low levels of subsidy release places in public schools that can contribute to expanded access. National circumstances differ greatly in terms of the possibilities for the continued expansion of the non-government sector. Several low enrolment countries in SSA have seen a rapid growth in non-government schools fuelled by both excess demand (not enough public school places) and differentiated demand (dissatisfaction with public schooling and preferences for other providers). Much of this growth has been concentrated in relatively low cost, low quality privately owned schools rather than in the expansion of established not for profit providers14. At some level of cost, which may be quite low, effective demand softens for reasons of affordability (Lassibille, Tan and Sumra 2000, Rose 2003, Lewin and Sayed 2005, Lewin 2006a). Unsubsidised non-government providers are unlikely to open new schools in areas where there is least access, and least ability to support the cost of fees, and will therefore continue to serve the relatively wealthy. Public subsidy of non-government schools which might expand the reach of such schools (e.g. grant aided, community co-financed, faith based, and commercially operated schools) has to be accompanied by systems that assure quality, and compliance with relevant health, safety, curriculum, employment, finance and tax regulations. High secondary enrolment SSA countries generally have small proportions of unsubsidized non-government schools.

13 It may account for much more in terms of costs to households. In Ghana the costs to households in boarding schools may be 14 times greater than for day schools (see Ghana Case study). 14 UIS data suggest that about 10% of primary and 13% of secondary schooling is “private” in SSA. However, the data set is very incomplete and is unreliable.


12

Chapter 2. A Status Report on Secondary Schooling in SSA

Enrolments and Participation

Secondary school systems exclude most of the population of secondary school age children in SSA. Sub-Saharan Africa has a total population of about 633 million of which about 93 million are of general secondary school age15. About 25 million are enrolled in secondary schools16. It seems probable that over 70 million fail to enrol in secondary, or about 75% of the total17. Nearly 45% of all those who are not enrolled are found in only four countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, the D R Congo and Tanzania). Fifteen countries account for nearly 80%. The great majority of SSA countries have GER2s below 40%. Fifteen countries have a GER2 of less than 20%, and thirty five of less than 40%18. In the former it is likely that no more than 10% complete secondary successfully, in the latter perhaps 25%. There is a noticeable gap between the seven countries which have GER2 of more than 60%, and the rest19. Across SSA the weighted mean overall GER2 was about 25% in 200220. Table 1 provides an overview of the size of the secondary age group and the numbers enrolled, primary, lower and upper secondary gross enrolment rates (GER1, GER2L, and GER2U), the proportion of female enrolment measured by the GPI at each level21, and GNP per capita. There is no simple relationship between primary and secondary gross enrolment rates in SSA (Figure 1). The lowest values for GER 2 are to be found in Tanzania, Niger, Burundi, and Burkina Faso which have GER1s that vary between 40% and over 80%. Where primary has been prioritised differences between GER1 and GER2 are greatest (e.g. Rwanda, Malawi, Madagascar, Uganda). Gross enrolment rates at lower and upper secondary are shown in Figure 2. In some cases enrolment rates do not differ much between levels, in others there are wide divergences. Figure 3 shows values of GER2 by countries ranked by GNP per capita. For countries with GNP per capita below $1000 there is no systematic relationship between national wealth and enrolment rates22 and GER2 varies from below 10% to over 40%. This data leads to the conclusion that enrolment rates at secondary are primarily determined by policy choice, and that greater access is possible even in the poorest countries.

15 Estimated using UNESCO secondary cycle length and UN age specific populations 16 Substantial additional numbers within the age group may be enrolled in primary schools as overage pupils 17 A substantial proportion of secondary places are occupied by repeaters. 18 Based on 45 countries for which there is UNESCO data. 19 In contrast in South Asia all major countries except Pakistan have GER2s of more than 45%. However, the size of their populations means that large numbers are excluded even with these higher enrolment ratios. 20 The consequences of these low enrolment rates can be illustrated by the flow of pupils in Benin. Of 100 children entering primary, only 16 will reach grade 9, the last year of lower secondary, and seven will reach grade 12. It is estimated that on 89% of all children enter grade 1 (Benin Case study). 21 The Gender parity Index (GPI) is the ratio of female to male pupils. Values below 1.0 indicate more boys than girls. 22 There is also no relationship between GER1 and GNP per capita.


13

Table 1 Basic Data on Secondary Education in SSA23

Secondary Primary Secondary

School Age Pop

Enrolled Difference GER1 GPI1 GER2 GPI2 GER2 Lower

GPI2 Lower

GER2 Upper

GPI2 Upper

GNP/ Capita

Angola 2,241 242 1999 74.4 0.86 10.8 0.83 18.7 0.90 8.7 0.62 500Benin 1,131 284 848 109.3 0.72 25.1 0.46 37.0 0.50 14.0 0.32 380Botswana 218 153 65 103.3 1.00 70.3 1.06 86.1 1.08 51.8 1.03 3,100B. Faso 2,062 218 1844 46.2 0.74 10.6 0.67 15.7 0.70 5.1 0.53 220Burundi 1,183 119 1063 77.3 0.81 10.1 0.73 13.0 7.8 0.80 100Cameroon 2,627 669 1958 107.6 0.85 25.5 0.84 29.0 16.0 580Cape Verde 71 48 23 120.6 0.95 67.1 1.09 100.0 1.08 53.7 1.10 1,340CAR 617 66 551 65.5 0.68 10.8 0.52 14.6 0.54 5.0 260Chad 1,316 188 1128 78.3 0.64 14.3 0.33 14.0 9.0 200Comoros 124 38 85 89.6 0.82 30.9 0.83 35.9 0.85 24.2 0.80 380Congo 589 164 424 80.4 0.93 27.9 0.71 42.0 17.0 640Côte d'Ivoire 2,891 620 2271 77.6 0.80 21.4 0.54 32.0 14.0 630D.R. Congo 7,322 1,464 5858 47.1 20.0 0.55 80Eq. Guinea 71 20 52 126.2 0.91 27.7 0.57 41.0 0.60 12.5 0.45 700Eritrea 575 159 415 63.4 0.81 27.8 0.65 42.6 0.74 20.1 0.56 160Ethiopia 9,440 1,786 7655 66.0 0.73 18.9 0.57 30.1 0.57 8.0 0.61 100Gabon 212 105 107 132.2 0.99 49.5 0.90 63.0 32.0 3,160Gambia 176 60 117 85.2 0.98 33.9 0.69 47.5 0.71 19.5 0.63 320Ghana 2,979 1,151 1828 78.7 0.95 38.6 0.83 57.2 0.85 20.8 0.76 290Guinea 1,289 301 988 81.5 0.77 23.4 0.46 29.6 0.49 16.1 0.39 410G-Bissau 149 26 124 69.7 0.67 17.2 0.54 22.0 0.55 10.8 0.54 160Kenya 4,222 1,362 2860 92.4 0.94 32.3 0.92 38.7 0.94 24.0 0.88 350Lesotho 237 81 156 126.4 1.01 34.2 1.28 42.7 1.32 22.2 1.16 530Liberia 401 85 316 105.4 0.73 21.1 0.69 39.9 0.64 27.7 0.77 140Madagascar 2,721 436 2284 119.6 0.96 16.0 0.97 22.4 0.98 7.0 260Malawi 1,000 176 824 140.1 0.96 17.6 0.76 19.5 0.80 15.5 0.67 160Mali 1,801 312 1490 58.4 0.76 17.3 0.55 25.0 0.59 13.4 0.46 230Mauritius 138 100 38 103.8 1.01 72.4 1.00 94.8 1.02 70.6 0.97 3,830Mozambique 3,128 476 2652 103.4 0.81 15.2 0.66 34.8 0.64 7.5 0.70 210Namibia 221 138 83 105.0 1.01 62.4 1.12 80.0 1.16 32.8 0.98 1,960Niger 1,783 124 1659 43.5 0.69 6.9 0.66 10.0 0.68 2.5 0.53 180Nigeria 17,328 6,313 11014 119.4 0.81 36.4 0.81 39.7 0.80 32.9 0.82 290Rwanda 1,174 167 1007 122.0 1.00 14.2 0.81 16.0 13.0 220S T+Principe 19 7 11 126.4 0.94 39.0 0.84 65.4 0.82 23.0 0.89 280Senegal 1,601 306 1295 79.9 0.92 19.1 0.69 25.2 0.72 10.6 0.61 490Seychelles 7 8 -1 114.3 0.99 110.9 1.00 112.6 0.97 108.2 1.06 6,530Sierra Leone 590 134 455 78.9 0.70 22.7 0.70 27.4 0.65 25.3 0.78 140Somalia 1073 ...South Africa 4,917 4,109 808 105.6 0.96 83.6 1.08 101.7 1.04 78.2 1.11 2,820Swaziland 138 62 77 98.2 0.93 44.5 1.01 54.4 1.04 30.9 0.95 1,300Togo 782 335 447 121.2 0.83 42.8 0.44 61.0 16.0 270Uganda 3,487 656 2831 140.7 0.98 18.8 0.80 25.3 0.84 9.5 0.63 260U R Tanzania 5,086 323 4763 84.2 0.97 6.4 0.81 10.0 2.0 270Zambia 1,261 345 916 82.2 0.93 27.4 0.83 41.1 0.88 18.5 0.76 320Zimbabwe 2,057 828 1229 93.9 0.98 40.3 0.88 60.3 0.92 29.8 0.85 480

23 All data in this and subsequent tables are from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics for the latest years available unless otherwise stated. Most enrolment data is for 2001/2.


14

Figure 1 Gross Enrolment Rates at Primary and Secondary by Country

Figure 2 Gross Enrolment Rates at Lower and Upper Secondary by Country

Figure 3 Gross Enrolment Rate at Secondary Ranked by GNP per Capita

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nig

erU

R T

anza

nia

Buru

ndi

Chad

CAR

B. F

aso

Rwan

daA

ngol

aM

alaw

iG

uine

a-Bi

ssau

Mad

agas

car

Mal

iSe

nega

lU

gand

aSi

erra

Leo

neCa

mer

oon

Gui

nea

Ethi

opia

Moz

ambi

que

Com

oros

Beni

nK

enya

Nig

eria

Libe

riaEq

uato

rial G

uine

aZa

mbi

aCo

ngo

Eritr

eaLe

soth

oG

ambi

aSw

azila

ndG

hana

Zim

babw

eTo

goG

abon

S T

+ Pr

inci

peN

amib

iaBo

tswan

aM

aurit

ius

Cape

Ver

deSo

uth

Afri

caSe

yche

lles

Gro

ss E

nrol

men

t Rat

e

GER2LowerGER2Upper

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

D.R

. Con

goBu

rund

iEt

hiop

iaLi

beri

aSi

erra

Leo

neEr

itrea

Gui

nea-

Biss

auM

alaw

iN

iger

Cha

dM

ozam

biqu

eB.

Fas

oR

wan

daM

ali

CA

RM

adag

asca

rU

gand

aTo

goU

R T

anza

nia

S T

+ Pr

inci

peG

hana

Nig

eria

Gam

bia

Zam

bia

Ken

yaBe

nin

Com

oros

Gui

nea

Zim

babw

eSe

nega

lA

ngol

aLe

soth

oC

amer

oon

Con

goEq

uato

rial

Gui

nea

Swaz

iland

Cap

e V

erde

Nam

ibia

Sout

h A

fric

aBo

tsw

ana

Gab

onM

auri

tius

Seyc

helle

s

GE

R2

GER2

GNP/Capita $1000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160U

R T

anza

nia

Nig

erBu

rund

iB.

Fas

oC

AR

Ang

ola

Rw

anda

Cha

dM

ozam

biqu

eM

adag

asca

rG

uine

a-Bi

ssau

Mal

iM

alaw

iU

gand

aEt

hiop

iaSe

nega

lD

.R. C

ongo

Libe

ria

Sier

ra L

eone

Gui

nea

Beni

nC

amer

oon

Zam

bia

Equa

tori

al G

uine

aEr

itrea

Con

goC

omor

osK

enya

Gam

bia

Leso

tho

Nig

eria

Gha

naS

T +

Pri

ncip

eZi

mba

bwe

Togo

Swaz

iland

Gab

onN

amib

iaC

ape

Ver

deBo

tsw

ana

Mau

ritiu

sSo

uth

Afr

ica

Seyc

helle

s

Gro

ss E

nrol

men

t Rat

e

GER1GER2


15

Gaps in GER2 between SSA and other Regions

In 1990 the GER2 for SSA averaged24 20% and increased to about 25% by 2001. The gap between SSA and other regions increased - with South and South West Asia from 20% to 28%; with E Asia and the Pacific from 30% to 41%; and with Latin America and the Caribbean from 29% to 58%. This widening gap is likely to have consequences for competitiveness between SSA economies and the rest of the developing world (Table 2, Figure 4). Table 2 Gaps in GER between Regions

Region 1990

GER2 %

2001

GER2%

Gap 1990 between SSA and

Each Region %

Gap 2001 between SSA and

Each Region %

Increase in Gap 1990-2001 SSA

and Each Region %

Arab States and N Africa 50.5 60.3 30.4 36 5.6 E Asia and Pacific 50.2 64.9 30.1 40.6 10.5 Lat Am + Carib 48.6 82.5 28.5 58.2 29.7 S and SW Asia 39.6 51.9 19.5 27.6 8.1 SSA 20.1 24.3

Figure 4 Gap in GER2 between SSA and Other Regions 1990-2001

Educational Structure in SSA.

The structure of education systems in SSA is shown in Figure 5. Most countries maintain a six year primary cycle though there is a range of four to eight years. In some countries primary schooling includes “incomplete” primary schools with less than the 24 Population weighted average

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

GER2 1990 GER2 2001

Wtd

Ave

rage

Gro

ss E

nrol

men

t Rat

e Se

cond

ary

Lat Am + CaribE Asia and PacificArab States and N AfricaS and SW AsiaSSA


16

Figure 5 Structure of Education Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

AngolaS. T. and Principe

EritreaE. Guinea

MadagascarEthiopia

D Rep. CongoG-Bissau

SeychellesC VerdeGambia

GhanaLiberiaNigeria

RwandaMauritius

MaliCôte d’Ivoire

B. FasoBenin

BurundiCameroon

CARChad

ComorosCongoGabonGuinea

NigerSenegal

TogoSierra LeoneMozambique

BotswanaZambia

LesothoNamibia

South AfricaSwaziland

U. R. TanzaniaUganda

ZimbabweMalawi

SomaliaKenya

Grade

Primary L Sec U Sec


17

full primary grade range. Lower and upper secondary schooling varies in length from two to five years. Typically systems have three or four years of lower secondary and two or three years of upper secondary. Secondary schooling lasts between three and seven years overall. Most commonly the complete full cycle is 12 years (22 cases), but a large number are 13 years long (20 cases). The shortest systems last 11 years (4 cases). An increasing number of countries are moving towards defining lower secondary as part of a basic education cycle lasting nine years (e.g. Rwanda, Zambia, Ghana). Transition points between primary and secondary schooling are characterised by primary school leaving examinations (Bude and Lewin 1997) which are used to select those who will continue. Some selection examinations include more than twelve subject areas and others only four of five core subjects. Though there are variations most primary school leaving examinations remain largely content rather than skill based, and reward recall more than higher cognitive capabilities (Lewin and Dunne, 2000). Selection practices vary. National lists are often but not always used to rank candidates. Numbers admitted to public secondary education are generally limited not to those who pass but by the number of places available. Sometimes quotas are used (geographic location, ethnic group, gender) to profile those admitted. Non-government schools generally operate more flexible entrance criteria which are influenced by affiliation in faith based schools, and ability to pay fees in the for profit private sector. Transition rates between primary and lower secondary schooling are determined by selection practices and by the places available in the last year of primary and the first year of lower secondary. They differ widely between regions within countries often by more than 2:1, e.g. in Zambia and Benin (see Case Studies). Secondary schools in SSA can vary in size from below 100 to over 2,000 with very different distributions of size between rural and urban areas, and in different geographic regions. Small secondary schools generally co-exist with low pupil teacher ratios making their costs per pupil high. In Ghana over 16% of senior secondary schools have enrolments below 100 making it unlikely that they can offer a full curriculum effectively or efficiently (Table 3 and see Ghana Case study). Table 3 Senior Secondary Schools with Enrolments below 100 in Ghana Region Total No. of Schools No. Under-Enrolled Enrolment Range Ashanti 78 13 40-95 Brong Ahafo 52 15 40-89 Central 49 9 32-91 Eastern 73 12 37-90 Greater Accra 40 Nil Nil Northern 31 1 97 Volta 68 11 23-90 Western 41 12 37-90 Upper East 20 2 92 &95 Upper West 16 Nil Nil National 468 75 (Source: Ministry of Education, SSS Division 2002)


18

Double shifting can be extensive (e.g. over 85% of primary schools in Rwanda in grades 1-3). At secondary level double shifting is largely confined to urban schools with excess demand and is generally not regarded favourably (e.g. in Malawi, Kadzamira 1995. Patterns of school provision have historic origins linked the activities of missionaries and colonial governments, and are sometimes associated culturally defined groups who have valued education differently. Most secondary schooling is located in urban or peri-urban areas in low enrolment countries, and in more wealthy regions. Where secondary schooling is rural, boarding schools cater disproportionately for urban children. Boarding schools constitute the majority of public secondary schools in many low enrolment countries (e.g Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania) and a substantial minority of places in many others (e.g. Ghana) 25.

Gender Differences

In most of SSA more boys than girls are enrolled at secondary level. Figure 6 shows that this is the case for over 80% of SSA countries. Higher GER2s are associated with greater gender equity in enrolments. Parity between boys and girls is much more likely when GER2 exceeds 50%. The only exceptions are Swaziland and Lesotho both of which experience male migration for work in South Africa. In Benin only one third of lower secondary pupils were female in 2002 after a decade of intervention to encourage higher enrolment rates (see Benin Case study). The relationship between GPI 1 and GPI 2 is shown in Figure 7. In only six countries is GPI 2 for secondary greater than GPI 1 for primary. These are Swaziland, Cape Verde, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Lesotho, at least five of which experience male migration of older children. In all other countries differences in enrolments between boys and girls at primary are magnified at secondary level. GPI 1 and GPI 2 correlate with each other (R2 = .52) suggesting that they may interact. GPI 2 does not correlate with GNP per capita. Thus in terms of participation girls appear to be more marginalised at secondary level than at primary amongst the children who attend. The data suggest that equalising enrolments of boys and girls at secondary in SSA is unlikely unless GER2s exceed 50%. It may also require structural changes, especially where boarding facilities are unequally provided at secondary level such that there are more places for boys than girls (e.g. Malawi).

25 No reliable cross country data is available on boarding and it takes may different forms from fully subsidised to full cost recovery.


19

Figure 6 GER2 by Gender Parity Index (GPI)

Figure 7 GPI 1 Primary and GPI 2 Secondary by Country

Differences in enrolments between boys and girls are often age related at secondary level. Thus in Tanzanian secondary schools girls outnumber boys up to the age of 16.5 years, but are in the minority for all older age groups. This suggests overage enrolment and repetition may disadvantage girls more than boys (Figure 8). In the Northern Region of Ghana only 1% of entrants to senior secondary school are of the official entry age (See Ghana Case Study).

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Cha

dG

uine

a-Bi

ssau

CA

RN

iger

Sier

ra L

eone

Beni

nEt

hiop

iaLi

beri

aB.

Fas

oM

ali

Gui

nea

Buru

ndi

Nig

eria

Eritr

eaM

ozam

biqu

eC

omor

osTo

goC

amer

oon

Ang

ola

Equa

tori

al G

uine

aSe

nega

lSw

azila

ndC

ongo

Zam

bia

S T

+ Pr

inci

peK

enya

Gha

naC

ape V

erde

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Sout

h A

fric

aU

R T

anza

nia

Zim

babw

eG

ambi

aU

gand

aSe

yche

lles

Gab

onBo

tsw

ana

Rw

anda

Mau

ritiu

sN

amib

iaLe

soth

o

Gen

der

Pari

ty In

dex

(GPI

)

GPI1GPI2

Bars above the line = More girls relative to boys at secondary when compared to primary

GPI for Primary = shaded area

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40

GPI

GE

R2

More boys than girls More girls than boys

GER2 = 50%


20

Figure 8 Enrolments in Tanzanian Secondary Schools by age and sex

Ministry of Education, Dar es Salaam

Repetition

Rates of repetition at secondary level are over 20% in at least 12 countries in SSA. Repetition is not associated with the level of GER2 and tends to be highest in francophone countries (Figure 9). Figure 9 Rates of Repetition in Secondary Schools in SSA

High repetition rates are a serious problem. They suggest that many learners are failing to reach appropriate levels of achievement. They result in school places being occupied by repeaters that could otherwise be allocated to those failing to gain entry to secondary schools at little or no additional cost.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Botswan

a

Ugand

a

U R Tanzan

ia

Nigeria

Ghana

Namibi

a

Lesotho

Ethiop

ia

Seneg

al

Zambia

Mauriti

us

Rwanda

Swazilan

d

South

Africa

Madag

ascar

Camero

on

Comoro

s

Eritrea

Cape V

erde

Niger

Mozam

bique

Gabon

Benin

S T + Princip

eTog

o

Guinea

B. Faso

Congo

Burund

i

% R

epea

ters

at S

econ

dary

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 22+

Age (Years)

(Mal

e En

rolm

ent -

Fem

ale

Enro

lmen

t)/ T

otal

Enr

olm

ent


21

Teachers and Teacher Education

Pupil teacher ratios (PTR) average about 44:1 at primary and 25:1 at secondary level across SSA. Lower and upper secondary ratios are not available separately for most countries. The existing UIS data suggests averages of about 28:1 at lower secondary and 22:1 at upper secondary. Mingat (2005) estimates 37:1 and 26:1 for lower and upper secondary respectively for 17 low income countries in SSA. In ten SSA countries PTRs are not very different between primary and secondary but in most cases the difference is large with secondary PTRs being less than half those at primary level. National pupil teacher ratios range from below 10:1 to over 50:1 and are not related to primary PTRs in a systematic way (Figure 10).

Figure 10 Pupil Teacher Ratios in Primary and Secondary Schools in SSA Low pupil teacher ratios, and poor distribution of ratios across secondary schools are widely problematic. In Zambia 22% of schools have pupil teacher ratios below 15:1, and 60% are below 20:1. In Ghana 41% of senior secondary schools have ratios below 15:1, and in 19% of schools below 10:1 (Table 4). Table 4 Distribution of Senior Secondary Schools in Ghana by PTR 2000/2001

Pupil Teacher Ratio Distribution of Schools Public Private Both

No % No % No % 0.0 - 9.9 81 19.4 12 44.4 93 20.9 10.0 - 14.9 90 21.5 6 22.2 96 21.6 15.0 - 19.9 89 21.3 7 25.9 96 21.6 20.0 - 24.9 102 24.4 1 3.7 103 23.1 25.0 - 29.9 36 8.6 0 - 36 8.1 30.0 - 34.9 15 3.6 1 3.7 16 3.6 35.0 + 5 1.2 0 0.0 5 1.1 All 418 100.0 27 100.0 445 100.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Seyc

helle

sM

auri

tius

Bots

wan

aC

ape V

erde

Nam

ibia

Swaz

iland

Gha

naK

enya

Ang

ola

Sout

h A

fric

aTo

goC

omor

osSi

erra

Leo

neG

ambi

aLi

beri

aZi

mba

bwe

Nig

eria

Nig

er

Zam

bia

Equa

tori

al G

uine

aG

uine

a-Bi

ssau

B. F

aso

Gui

nea

Eritr

eaLe

soth

oSe

nega

lBu

rund

iM

adag

asca

rU

gand

aU

R T

anza

nia

Cam

eroo

nM

ali

Rw

anda

Beni

nM

alaw

iC

ongo

Moz

ambi

que

Cha

d

Pupi

l Tea

cher

Rat

io

PTR PrimaryPTR Secondary


22

Ministry of Education, Ghana, 2002 Analyses of teaching loads for secondary teachers in SSA often produce discrepancies between official requirements and actual timetable activity. In Uganda secondary teachers teach between one third and one half of timetabled periods they are in school (Lewin 2003). In Zambia estimates suggest that typical teaching loads are between 15 an 20 periods a week out of 36 timetabled periods for pupils (See Zambia Case Study). Clearly more intense teacher utilisation is possible. On average 20% of secondary teachers are female in the 28 SSA countries on which there is data. This can be compared to about 42%% at primary level. There is no cross national data on the proportion of secondary teachers that are trained. As many as 70% of secondary teachers do not have a teaching qualification in Rwanda, and 50% in Ghana (See Case Studies). UIS Data from nine countries in SSA produces an average of 17% untrained with a range of 1% to 44%). In some countries the number of temporary and contract teachers has risen rapidly. In Benin 72% of all secondary teachers fell into this category by 2002. Training courses vary widely from one year Diploma courses after upper secondary schooling, to four or five year under-graduate training. Diploma and graduate training programmes often co-exist. To provide enough teachers to meet rising demand some countries have reduced the length of training (e.g. Rwanda and Tanzania). Attrition rates, especially for graduate teachers can be substantial. In some case more than 40% may have left the profession within five years of qualifying (Ministry of Education and Culture, Tanzania, 2004).

Participation, Wealth, Gender and Location

Patterns of participation at secondary level are heavily skewed by household income. The DHS data sets allow some analysis of these patterns and indicate to what extent poverty marginalises large proportions of populations from participation at the post primary level. Households in these data sets are divided into the richest 20%, and the middle and poorest 40%. Children from the richest 20% of households have on average more than 11 times the chance of reaching grade 9 than those from the poorest 40% of households26. Gender is less important in explaining differences in enrolment amongst the richest 20% where boys are more likely to be enrolled in the ratio of 53% to 47%. Amongst the poorest 40% the ratio boys/girls is 79%/21% for participation at grade 9. Figure 11 shows this. Participation is also strongly related to location. Figure 12 shows that urban children have about 10 times more chance of being enrolled in grade 9 than rural children. Gender differences diminish for higher grades of attendance.

26 Based on median values across the 26 countries in the data set for highest level of participation amongst 15-19 year olds.


23

Figure 11 Participation by Wealth and Gender in SSA

DHS data sets

Figure 12 Participation and by Location and Gender in SSA

DHS data sets These aggregations conceal very different patterns between countries. Figures 13-18 illustrate strikingly different patterns of participation by wealth and gender for Benin, Ghana, Zambia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda from DHS data sets. In Benin at all grade levels those most likely to be enrolled by very wide margin are the rich rather than those from poor households, and boys rather than girls. Transition rates into secondary in favoured districts are twice as high as in poorer districts (Benin Case Study). In contrast in Ghana differences related to wealth are much smaller throughout the primary grades, as are those for gender. However, unlike Benin, these differences increase in higher grades. In Zambia differences also grow in higher grades but those associated with gender are minimal. Participation rates drop off sharply from grade 7 unlike in Ghana. In Uganda the pattern lies between that of Ghana and Zambia with small gender differences but rapid fall off in participation in upper primary grades. Tanzania enrols most children thorough primary grades but has a sharp decline at the transition to secondary. Girls from rich households are more likely to be enrolled than boys, although girls from poor households are less likely to be enrolled than poor boys. In Rwanda the same is true. Here declines in participation are fairly continuous from grade 1 to grade 9. The different patterns are very important to understand since strategy to expand access to secondary depends on the nature of participation at lower levels.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion SSA 15-19 - rich/male

SSA 15-19 - rich/femaleSSA 15-19 - middle/maleSSA 15-19 - middle/femaleSSA 15-19 - poorest/maleSSA 15-19 - poorest/female

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion

SSA 15-19 - urban/maleSSA 15-19 - urban/femaleSSA 15-19 - rural/maleSSA 15-19 - rural/female


24

Figure 13 Benin - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Figure 14 Ghana – Participation by Wealth and Gender

Figure 15 Zambia - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Figure 16 Uganda - Participation by Wealth and Gender

Figure 17 Tanzania – Participation by Wealth and Gender

Figure 18 Rwanda - Participation by Wealth and Gender

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

8+ JSS

Part

icap

tion

(%) Rich/Male


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Grade

% P

artic

ipat

ion Rich/Male

Rich/Female

Middle/Male

Middle/Female

Poor/Male

Poor/Female


25


UIS estimates that about 13% of secondary education in SSA is privately provided (GMR 2005). Mingat (2005) estimates that 23% (lower secondary) and 29% (upper secondary) is privately financed in a sample of 17 low income SSA countries27. Some SSA countries have very little private secondary schooling (e.g. less than 5% in Botswana and South Africa) and others much higher levels (e.g. Uganda and Tanzania over 40%). Non-government schools are poorly defined and documented and enrolment data is widely incomplete (Lewin and Sayed, 2005, Kitaev, 1999). UIS estimates of private schooling include both publicly financed but privately owned schools (e.g. Mauritius, Lesotho), and those that are wholly private (e.g. Uganda, Ghana). Unknown but significant numbers of private schools are unregistered (e.g. in Nigeria, Malawi, and Rwanda), and enrolments and teaching staff are often unstable from year to year. The distribution of private schools is very uneven. In Benin half of all private schools are in Atlantique et Littoral, while only 3% are in Borgou and Atacora. These private schools have very low pupil teachers ratios (average 7:1) compared to public schools (average 32:1) and are clearly serving advantaged communities (Benin Case study). In Tanzania non-government schools are highly concentrated. Non-government enrolments outnumber public enrolments in only three regions (Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro and Mbeya). In all other regions public enrolments are much greater (Figure 19). Figure 19 Public and Non-Government Enrolments in Tanzania Form 1-4

Ministry of Education, Dar es Salaam, 2004 It is important to recognise that there are important asymmetries between most countries in SSA and rich countries with non-government fee paying schooling. The 0-14 year-old age dependency rates are between 90% and 100% in Uganda, Malawi, and Tanzania28 and average 85% for SSA as a whole. In the UK, USA and Australia they 27 In neither case is it clear what definition of private is being used. This may explain the differences in estimates. 28 The proportion of 0-14 year-olds compared to the population of 15-64 years old.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Lindi

Rukwa

Kigoma

Manyar

a

Mtwara

Tabora

Ruvum

a

Singida

Pwani

S'nyan

g

Morogo

roMara

Dodom

a

Kagera

Mbeya

D'Salaam

Arusha

Tanga

Iring

a

Mwanza

K'njaro

Public Form 1-4Non Govt Form 1-4


26

are 30%, 32% and 34% respectively. The ratio of school-age children to the number in the work force is therefore very different. The availability of income to support fees is thus much more limited. Moreover the relationship between typical secondary teachers’ salaries and GDP per capita is also very different. In Malawi secondary teacher salaries are more than six times GDP per capita; in the UK they are about the same as GDP per capita. Taken together these demographic and cost factors limit the expansion of unsubsidised schooling supported by fees paid from household income. Non-government schools which are not subsidised have minimum operating costs which determine fee levels. The main costs, especially in low fee schools lie in teachers’ salaries. When fee levels are related to household survey data, many families will be excluded by poverty from participation at secondary level in full cost non-government schools. In much of SSA the effect is so strong that few outside the richest 25% of households can afford to participate. This is clearly the case in Benin, Ghana, Zambia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda (case study data). Non-government schools that access the poor can only do so if they are subsidised, even when they minimise overheads to close to zero and pay teachers much less than in government schools, with unknown consequences for quality. Some schools receive contributions from NGOs and from faith-based communities. The point is that there are limits of affordability to participation determined by costs which will limit effective demand for non-government providers (Lewin 2006a). For-profit organisations will not operate at a loss. Not-for-profit organisations are unlikely to offer schooling opportunities on a national level to large numbers without national or international subsidy. Non-government providers, both for profit and not for profit, do make a significant contribution to enrolments in many SSA countries. However most non-government secondary schooling is urban and concentrated in wealthy districts. Where private secondary schooling is rural it often serves urban clientele through boarding schools. There are exceptions – Rwanda has rural privately run secondary schools supported from the Genocide Fund which enrol poor children29. Higher income SSA countries appear to have lower rates of non-government enrolment. Recent growth in non-government provision is poorly documented (Lewin and Sayed, 2005) but, at least in some countries, has been concentrated amongst for profit providers operating on a small scale at the lower end of the fee market. Much of this activity is unlicensed and unregulated with poor quality facilities and learning outcomes often located in houses or commercial premises and run as small businesses. There are signs in some countries that growth is slowing – new registrations in Tanzania indicated growth of less than 2% a year in non-government schools in 2002/3, and growth in private Senior Secondary Schools was less than 2% a year in the 1990s30. Non-government schools can contribute to expanded access. However the growth of low cost (and often low quality) providers may reflect state failure to serve low/middle income households. At higher cost levels where differentiated demand is predominant, non-government schools can release places in public schools that can be occupied by those who might otherwise be excluded. 29 It is not clear how these schools will be financed as the Genocide Fund diminishes. 30 Private primary schools may have grown faster as they have much lower initial investment costs (see Ghana case study).


27

Technical and Vocational Education

The amount of technical and vocational education (TVE) at secondary level in SSA is difficult to estimate since it occurs in a wide variety of institutional locations. These include both general and specialised public schools, institutions under ministries other than the Ministry of Education, and in the non-government for profit and not for profit sectors. Figure 20 suggests that less than 6% of total enrolment is in technical and vocational schools. About half the SSA countries are missing from this UIS data set, and it is likely that non-government schools are under counted. Atchoerena and Delluc (2001) indicate that enrolments exceed 10,000 pupils in only six countries (Cameroon, DR Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Mozambique and Uganda). Across nineteen SSA countries nine had less than 2% enrolments in TVET at secondary level, six between 5% and 9% and only four above 10%. Figure 20 Technical and Vocational School Enrolment in SSA

The share of technical and vocational education in total enrolments appears to have been falling over the last fifteen years as a result of softening of demand from pupils, lack of confidence amongst sponsors, and high costs. In Uganda demand for places in lower secondary farm and technical schools has fallen to less than 1% of the total places available (Lewin 2003). In Zambia the national technical high school could only fill two out of eight grade 10 classes because of the low standard of applicants for technical and vocational courses in 2003 (Zambia Case Study). Adams and Johanson (2004) have reviewed evidence across twenty SSA countries. Their estimates suggest costs per pupil can reach as much as 14 times those for general secondary schooling. They conclude that there is a case for some vocational subjects to be included in general secondary schooling if they can be taught at similar cost levels to other subjects and if they are not heavily gender biased. But in general the needs are for secure achievement in primary and lower secondary education prior to employment, and for training provided close to workplaces and with direct engagement with economic activity. Gill, Fluitman and Dar (2000) support the view that successful TVE at school level employs curricula that are general rather than occupation specific, and which therefore look more like “technologised” school subjects integrated with the normal curriculum (Lewin 2000). The Ghana case study (Akyeampong, 2005) concludes that “implementing a large scale diversified curriculum in systems with severe resource constraints is not advisable. It is

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ethiop

ia

S T + Princip

e

Comoro

s

Gambia

Eritrea

Ghana

Lesotho

Kenya

Seneg

al

Zambia

Niger

Sudan

Cape V

erde

Botswan

a

South

Africa

Mozam

bique

Ugand

a

Eq. Guin

ea

Djibou

ti

Gabon

Burund

iBen

in

B. Faso

Congo

Mauriti

us

Rwanda

Angola

Camero

on

% T

otal

Sec

onda

ry E

nrol

men

t


28

prudent to allow some secondary schools to introduce TVE but with the proviso that they can meet clearly defined cost-effectiveness standards”.

Expenditure and Costs

In many SSA countries with substantial commitments to universalising primary education, 50% or more of recurrent expenditure is allocated to primary schooling. Figure 21 suggests there are a variety of patterns for allocations to secondary31. In some cases, notably high enrolment countries, secondary does absorb more expenditure than primary.

Figure 21 Distribution of Recurrent Expenditure between Levels Higher education costs are more than all of public secondary schooling in several SSA countries. In Rwanda in 2004 34% of public education resources were allocated to tertiary institutions and about 20% to all secondary schooling. In Tanzania only 7% of public expenditure was allocated to secondary schooling in 2003 and 18% to tertiary education. Throughout the 1990s Malawi allocated nearly twice as much to higher education as to all secondary schools. Public costs per student vary between levels. On average unit costs are about three times greater than primary at lower secondary level and six times at upper secondary. The reasons lie in a combination of lower pupil teacher ratios, higher salary costs, boarding subsidies, and larger numbers of non-teaching support staff. Non-teaching costs at secondary level can account for more as much as 40% of total cost per pupil. Table 3 shows averages costs per pupil in a sample of 17 low income countries. Figure 22 indicates the variation between countries in the ratio of primary and secondary costs per pupil.

31 Cross national data on expenditure patterns are very incomplete and are degraded by different classification systems between countries. Ore reliable estimates are available from Sector Reviews. See also projections on Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania in Annex.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Seych

elles

Madag

asca

r

Mauriti

us

Seneg

al

Guinea

Swazila

nd

Comoro

s

Leso

tho

Zambia

Burund

iCha

d

South

Africa

MaliTog

o

Ethiop

ia

Gambia

Congo

Zimba

bwe

Centra

l Afric

an R

epub

lic

Burkina

Faso

Namibi

a

Malawi

Benin

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pub

lic E

duca

tion

Expe

nditu

re

TertiarySecondaryPrimary


29

Table 5 Unit costs for different educational levels

Teacher salaries (per capita GDP)

% Recurrent spending for other than teachers

Unit costs (% per capita GDP)

Average 4.6 27.4 11.4 Primary Sector

Studies** Variation [2.4 – 6.8] [15-43] [4-20] Average 6.6 37.4 31.2 First secondary

cycle Sector Studies** Variation [3.6 – 13.1] [24-56] [13-64]

Average 9.3 39.5 63.4 Second secondary cycle

Sector Studies** Variation [3.8 – 19.8] [18-53] [22-157]

Source: Mingat (2005) Figure 22 Ratio of Costs per Student between Secondary and Primary

Source: UNESCO data 2000 Systems with high participation rates have low ratios of the cost per pupil between secondary and primary education. High secondary enrolment countries tend to spend less than twice as much on a secondary pupil than on a primary pupil. Varying proportions of the costs of participation (fees, transport, learning materials etc.) at secondary level in SSA are borne privately. In public secondary schools in Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia more than half the total costs per student are financed through fees and other contributions (See Case Studies). This is part of the explanation why participation in secondary school is heavily skewed towards wealthy households.

Insights from the Analysis

Analysis of data on secondary schooling in SSA leads to the following observations.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

South

Africa

Namibi

a

Zimba

bwe

Mauriti

usBen

in

Burkina

Faso

Centra

l Afric

an R

epub

licMali

Zambia

Ethiop

iaTog

o

Gambia

Malawi

Swazila

nd

Leso

thoCha

d

Guinea

Morocc

o

Comoro

s

Maurita

nia

Seneg

al

Madag

asca

r

Burund

i

Rat

io o

f Prim

ary

to S

econ

dary

Cos

ts

SecondaryPrimary


30

First, participation as indicated by gross enrolment rates is generally low and indicates that about three quarters of the school age population experience little or no secondary schooling. Four countries account for a little less than half the total out of school, and fifteen for 80% of those with no access. Lower secondary enrolment rates (GER2L) have a weighted average of 33%, and upper secondary (GER2U) of 19%. The gap between enrolment rates in SSA and other regions of the developing world appears to have been increasing. Second, participation rates are not systematically related to enrolment rates at primary, nor are lower and upper secondary rates clearly related. Below GNP per capita $1000 secondary enrolments show no clear relationship to national wealth. The implication is that secondary enrolment rates are influenced by the policy preferences of governments and their development partners acting through budget allocations to secondary, and levels of public unit costs which shape the supply of opportunities to participate. Third, more boys than girls attend secondary school in most of SSA. The GPI weighted averages are about 80% at lower secondary and 70% at upper secondary. Almost all countries with gender parity in enrolments have GER 2 over 50% in SSA. Fourth, pupil teacher ratios average about 44:1 at primary and 25:1 at secondary. Lower secondary PTRs average 28:1 and upper secondary 22:1 with wide dispersions between and within countries. Untrained teachers often make up 20% of the cadre, and can account for over 50%. Teacher training systems vary greatly in length and capacity to increase output to meet expanding demand. Fifth, participation is strongly skewed in favour or richer households and urban location. These effects tend to be much stronger than gender differences. There are wide variations between countries in patterns of exclusion related to wealth and location. Sixth, non government providers account for about 13% of total enrolments (UIS estimates) but may account for more because of under counting. They include privately owned but publicly subsidised schools, faith based schools, and those run by NGOs. The sector contains both high fee and lower fee schools. It predominantly serves rich and middle income families in urban and peri-urban areas. Seventh, public technical and vocational schools account for less than 10% of total enrolment in most of SSA and are often less than 5%. Some studies suggest the proportion has been declining. Eighth, costs per pupil at secondary average between three (lower secondary) and six (upper secondary) times those at primary level. Non teaching costs can be as much as 40% of total costs per pupil. Public expenditure on secondary schooling is less than that allocated to higher education in some countries (e.g. Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda). In high enrolment countries secondary expenditure tends to be greater than that allocated to primary (Mauritius, Seychelles, South Africa) but patterns are very varied.


31

Chapter 3. The Challenge of Expanding Secondary Enrolments

How Fast Will Secondary Enrolments Grow?

The number of school age children in SSA countries is growing on average at about 2% with a variation between minus 1.4% and over 5% (Figure 23). The school age population represents different proportions of the total population in different countries from below 20% to nearly 40% (Figure 24). Demographic transition to low growth has occurred in some SSA countries (Seychelles, Mauritius) but high growth has remained in others (Eritrea, Uganda). In some countries normal patterns have been severely affected by HIV and AIDS. The growth rates for the primary school entry age group have been used to estimate overall growth to 2015. The result is that the school age population32 appears set to increase from about 207 million to 280 million by about 35%. Lower secondary age children will increase from 49.2 million to 66.2 million, and upper secondary from 45.1 million to 60.9 million with the current length of school cycles. Where GER1 is in excess of 110% total primary enrolment should stabilise and may even fall for a period as repetition and over age entry are eliminated. Where GER1 is less than 100%, total primary enrolment will need to increase more rapidly than growth in school age children. In both cases the numbers completing primary school will increase as greater proportions of those who enter successfully reach the last grade of primary. How increased primary enrolments translate into additional places needed at secondary level is a system specific question. It depends on a range of policy choices e.g. how fast to expand primary, how quickly to reduce repetition and drop out at primary which determines the numbers completing, how to select pupils into lower and upper secondary school, how to manage the primary/secondary transition rates, and how to reduce repetition and overage enrolment at secondary.

32 Defined by the official number of years of schooling and official entry ages.


32

Figure 23 School Age Population Growth Rates

Figure 24 Percentage of School Age Children in the Population

Mingat (2005) has developed a useful chart of the options for secondary expansion. This is reproduced below (Figure 25). Existing enrolments are shown declining from about 88% access (an SSA average) to under 50% by grade 6, 20% by grade 10 and 8% by grade 13. Profile A1 illustrates 100% completion and transition to lower secondary. A2 and A3 represent 100% transition from the last year of lower secondary to upper secondary and 100% completion. B1 indicates lower secondary participation based on current transition rates but 100% completion of primary. B2, A3, B3 and C indicate different patterns of upper secondary participation. On this basis of this the levels of

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Seyc

helle

sM

aurit

ius

Sao

Tom

e an

d Pr

inci

peLi

beria

Eritr

eaRw

anda

Gam

bia

Gui

nea-

Biss

auSo

mal

iaSo

uth

Afri

caEq

uato

rial G

uine

aA

ngol

aSi

erra

Leo

neM

adag

asca

rM

alaw

iBo

tswan

aCo

mor

osG

hana

Ethi

opia

Leso

tho

Nig

eria

Gui

nea

Nig

erK

enya

Zam

bia

D R

ep. o

f the

Con

goN

amib

iaCa

pe V

erde

Moz

ambi

que

Burk

ina

Faso

Cong

oCh

adTo

goM

ali

Swaz

iland

Cent

ral A

f. Re

publ

icSe

nega

lU

nite

d Re

p of

Tan

zani

a

Beni

nG

abon

Cam

eroo

nU

gand

aZi

mba

bwe

Buru

ndi

Per

cent

age

of S

choo

l Age

Chi

ldre

n

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Mau

ritiu

sSo

uth

Afr

ica

Cap

e Ver

deLe

soth

oZi

mba

bwe

Ken

ya

Seyc

helle

sSw

azila

ndBu

rund

iBo

tsw

ana

Gab

onG

hana

Cam

eroo

nM

ozam

biqu

eSe

nega

lN

amib

iaC

entr

al A

f. R

epub

lic

Uni

ted

Rep

of T

anza

nia

Beni

nZa

mbi

aD

Rep

. of t

he C

ongo

Gui

nea

Nig

eria

Togo

Ethi

opia

Gam

bia

Equa

tori

al G

uine

aC

omor

os

Sao

Tom

e and

Pri

ncip

eM

ali

Cha

dM

adag

asca

rBu

rkin

a Fa

soC

ongo

Gui

nea-

Biss

auA

ngol

aU

gand

aEr

itrea

Sier

ra L

eone

Nig

erM

alaw

iR

wan

daSo

mal

iaLi

beri

a

Rat

e of

Grw

oth

of S

choo

l Age

Pop

ulat

ion

Series1


33

increased enrolment needed to reach 100% primary access and different levels of secondary enrolment are calculated for ten countries33. The result is that at existing primary/secondary transition rates (63%) and 100% enrolment in primary, numbers in lower secondary school would need to increase on average by 3.7 times. If lower secondary was universalised the increase would be 6 times.

Figure 25 Average Enrolment Profile from Ten SSA Countries

Source: Mingat 2005 This model is shaped by targets for transition rates. It assumes that these can be held constant or increase as expansion takes place. In reality, in countries where there is likely to be a rapid increase in primary school output as a result of universalising primary access, the assumption that transition rates will not fall may not be realistic. Different priorities will be set and different rates of growth will occur at lower and upper secondary level that are not directly linked to transition rates or the flows completing primary school. Enrolment rates will also be constrained by the non-financial constraints on growth (e.g. teacher supply, building new capacity, and the rate at which repetition can be decreased and achievement increased). The numbers currently enrolled can be compared with the numbers needed to achieve different levels of GER1 and 2 across a larger number of countries. Table 6 shows how rapidly enrolments would have to expand under different scenarios for thirty eight countries on which there is grade by grade enrolment data.

33 Benin, Cameroon, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Acc

ess t

o E

ach

Gra

de (%

)

A1 A2

B1

B2

B3

A3

C


34

Table 6 Increase in Places Needed for Primary, Lower and Upper Secondary34

Increase for GER1 =110%

Increase needed for GER2L 100%

Increase needed for GER2U 100%

Increase needed in last grade primary if all Grade 1 pupils complete primary

Increase needed in first year LS if all Grade 1 complete primary and entered Lower Sec

Increase needed in first year LSif transition constant and all primary entrants complete

2001 2015 2001 2015 2001 2015 2001 2015 2001 2015 2001 2015Seychelles 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0South Africa35 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2Cape Verde 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 2.5 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8Botswana 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5S T + Principe 0.8 1.2 1.4 2.2 4.9 7.7 1.5 2.3 2.0 3.2 1.5 2.3Namibia 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 3.8 4.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7Mauritius 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6Togo 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 6.9 9.7 1.9 2.6 2.2 3.1 1.9 2.6Ghana 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 6.7 7.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6Zimbabwe 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.9 18.3 17.7 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4Swaziland 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.2 3.6 3.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0Gambia 1.4 2.1 2.2 3.2 5.5 8.1 1.5 2.3 2.1 3.1 1.5 2.3Eritrea 1.8 3.1 2.3 4.0 4.8 8.2 2.3 4.0 2.3 4.0 2.3 4.0Congo 1.3 2.1 2.5 4.1 8.8 14.3 1.9 3.1 2.1 3.5 1.9 3.1Lesotho 0.9 0.8 2.5 2.3 5.0 4.6 2.7 2.5 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.5Nigeria 0.9 1.3 2.6 3.6 3.2 4.4 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.9 1.9 2.7Equatorial Guinea 0.9 1.3 2.6 4.0 16.5 25.0 3.5 5.3 4.4 6.7 3.5 5.3Comoros 1.5 2.4 2.9 4.4 4.4 6.7 2.1 3.2 2.5 3.8 2.1 3.2Zambia 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.0 7.8 10.7 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.2 1.6 2.2Benin 1.1 1.4 3.1 4.1 11.6 15.5 2.6 3.5 3.6 4.8 2.6 3.5Côte d'Ivoire 1.4 1.5 3.4 3.5 7.0 7.3 1.2 1.2 2.8 3.0 1.2 1.2Cameroon 1.1 1.2 3.5 3.9 6.8 7.8 2.4 2.8 5.1 5.8 2.4 2.8Guinea 1.5 2.0 3.8 5.3 9.0 12.4 1.8 2.4 3.2 4.5 1.8 2.4Kenya 1.2 1.2 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 2.2 2.2 4.8 4.9 2.2 2.2Rwanda 0.9 1.7 4.3 8.2 7.6 14.7 5.1 9.8 9.9 19.0 5.1 9.8Ethiopia 1.7 2.4 4.5 6.3 8.5 11.9 3.5 4.9 5.2 7.3 3.5 4.9Madagascar 1.1 1.7 4.7 7.5 13.1 21.0 4.5 7.2 7.1 11.4 4.5 7.2Senegal 1.5 1.8 4.8 5.7 10.1 12.0 1.7 2.0 4.0 4.8 1.7 2.0Guinea-Bissau 1.7 2.8 5.0 8.3 12.2 19.9 4.0 6.5 5.5 9.0 4.0 6.5Malawi 0.9 1.6 5.1 9.2 6.4 11.6 5.3 9.5 17.1 30.7 5.3 9.5Mali 1.9 3.1 5.8 9.1 N/a N/a 1.8 2.9 3.0 4.8 1.8 2.9Uganda 1.1 1.5 7.6 9.9 31.3 40.5 4.0 5.2 10.9 14.2 4.0 5.2Burkina Faso 2.5 4.1 7.9 12.9 26.8 43.5 1.5 2.5 3.8 6.2 1.5 2.5Burundi 1.6 1.7 8.1 8.7 23.7 25.6 2.6 2.8 6.4 6.9 2.6 2.8Chad 1.4 2.3 8.2 13.1 14.5 23.3 4.0 6.4 10.1 16.1 4.0 6.4U R Tanzania 1.2 1.9 9.3 15.3 44.5 73.6 2.4 4.0 13.7 22.6 2.4 4.0Mozambique 1.4 1.7 9.5 11.3 27.3 32.3 6.3 7.5 13.4 15.9 6.3 7.5Niger 2.8 4.9 11.3 20.1 40.6 71.9 2.3 4.0 5.2 9.2 2.3 4.0

Unweighted Average

1.3 1.8 4.0 5.6 10.9 15.5 2.4 3.4 4.6 6.7 2.4 3.4

34 Assuming cycle length remains unchanged and school age cohort expands/contracts at current rate of growth. 35 South Africa’s crude transition rate is anomalous since there appear more pupils in grade 8 than grade 7 in the UIS data base.


35

GER1 110% requires the number of primary places to expand on average by 1.3 times those in 2001, and much more in some cases. If the school population continues to grow at current rates the number needed will be 1.8 times greater by 2015. If lower secondary was to enrol 100% of those of official entry age on average 4 times as many places will be needed rising to 5.6 times by 2015. At upper secondary the figures are 10.9 and 15.5 times for GER2U 100%. Figure 26 shows the growth needed in places for GER2L 100%. These comparisons indicate the rate at which total enrolments would have to grow. Rates of growth in the last grade of primary and the first of lower secondary, which determine changes in transition rates, would have to be greater. If all those enrolled in grade 1 in 2001 were to reach the final grade of primary school about 2.4 times more places would be needed in the final grade, rising to 3.4 times by 2015. If all those in grade 1 in 2001 were to enter lower secondary then the first grade of lower secondary would have to expand by 4.6 times rising to 6.7 by 2015. If primary/lower secondary transition rates remained at current levels and did not increase towards 100% the increases in lower secondary would be 2.4 times rising to 3.4 times if all those starting primary completed it successfully. Table 6 ranks countries by the extent to which lower secondary would have to expand. Those in the lower one third of the table would have to provide between 4 and 10 times as many places as they do currently for the 2001 cohort, and 8 to 20 times as many by 2015 to achieve universal lower secondary education. The rates of increase needed to universalise upper secondary are even higher. Expansion rates needed in the first grade of lower secondary are substantial if all grade 1 enrolled in 2001 were to enter lower secondary – often more than 5 times for the low enrolment countries. Even if transition rates remained the same as in 2001 the challenge is still substantial. Figure 26 Increases Needed in Enrolments to reach GER2L = 100% by 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nig

erU

R T

anza

nia

Cha

dBu

rkin

a Fa

soM

ozam

biqu

eU

gand

aM

alaw

iM

ali

Buru

ndi

Gui

nea-

Biss

auR

wan

daM

adag

asca

rEt

hiop

iaSe

nega

lU

nwei

ghte

d Av

erag

eG

uine

aC

omor

osC

ongo

Beni

nKe

nya

Eritr

eaEq

uato

rial G

uine

aZa

mbi

aC

amer

oon

Nig

eria

Côt

e d'

Ivoi

reG

ambi

aTo

goLe

soth

oS

T +

Prin

cipe

Swaz

iland

Gha

naZi

mba

bwe

Nam

ibia

Bots

wan

aM

aurit

ius

Cap

e Ve

rde

Seyc

helle

sSo

uth

Afric

a[1]

Mul

tiplie

r for

Enr

olm

ents

This analysis leads to conclusions that:


36

• The total number of primary places needs to be increased by more than 30% by 2015 in about 70% of the countries in the data set

• There are only eleven countries are likely to universalise lower secondary if the

maximum sustainable rate of increase in lower secondary enrolments is 10% a year (Seychelles, South Africa, Cape Verde, Botswana, Sao Tome and Principe, Namibia, Mauritius, Togo, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, and Lesotho); if the maximum rate is set at 5% then only five will achieve this goal (Seychelles, South Africa, Cape Verde, Botswana, Mauritius).

• Targets less than GER2L 100% may have to be set if they are to be achievable,

and these will differ between countries depending on country prioritisation of increased access at primary and secondary levels, the resources available, and the costs of expansion.

• It will be difficult for most countries to hold primary secondary transition rates

constant if all primary entrants complete the last year of primary school. Half the countries in the data set will not be able to achieve this unless lower secondary enrolments grow at an average of 10% per year to 2015.

• GER2L can continue to rise if growth is planned to ensure this outcome even if

primary/secondary transition rates fall for a period.

Modelling Expansion – Types of Enrolment Patterns in Primary and Secondary Schools in SSA

Different systems face different enrolment challenges. These depend on current patterns of enrolment and the rate at which progress is made towards higher levels of participation. Priorities should differ between countries with high values of GER1 with low primary completion rates and those where most who start primary finish the cycle successfully. Where GER1 is well below 100% decisions have to be made at what rate lower secondary should expand when many children do not even enter grade 1. Because very different enrolment patterns exist between SSA countries a typology is needed that identifies characteristic patterns that will determine policy choices. Table 7 identifies bands of enrolment rates that can be used to group countries. Table 8 shows the result of sorting countries first by GER1 and then by GER2 (Lower and Upper)36. Five groups of countries emerge.

• The first group (A) has high values of GER1 (over 100%) and high rates of enrolment at lower secondary (above 60%). It includes Cape Verde, Seychelles, South Africa, Namibia, Mauritius, Botswana, Namibia, Gabon, Togo and Sao Tome and Principe.

• The second group (B), which also has high values for GER1, has much lower secondary gross enrolment rates. These are mostly countries that have expanded primary rapidly but have low primary completion rates and high rates of drop out. The countries include Malawi, Lesotho, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Cameroon, Nigeria, Liberia, Benin, Mozambique, Uganda, and Rwanda.

36 Using UIS data which contains inconsistencies especially in relation to quoted transition rates.


37

• The third group (C) has GER1s between 80% and 100% and middle to low levels of GER2 for lower secondary. The group includes Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Gambia, Congo, Zambia, Kenya, Comoros, Guinea, and Tanzania.

• The fourth group (D) has low GER1s (70%-80%) and all have low rates of lower secondary enrolment. It includes Ghana, Eritrea, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Chad, Burundi, and Angola.

• The final group (E) has the lowest GER1s (all below 70%) and all have very low lower secondary GER2s. It includes Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the DR Congo.

Values of GER2 for lower and upper secondary have different significance between countries as the length of the two cycles varies. A high GER2 in a short cycle may represent less overall participation than a lower one in a longer cycle. Both enrolment data and population data have uncertainties which may lead to over or under estimates. UIS data on GER2s attempts to standardise lower and upper secondary cycles. It can lead to over estimation of GER2s at lower secondary in systems with more than six years of primary and the converse. Transition rates from primary to lower secondary in Table 8 are indicated using UIS aggregate data for the different groups. These should be interpreted with caution and are not a good basis for classification since similar values can arise from very different patterns of enrolment. Thus high values can occur both in systems with full primary and secondary enrolment (Mauritius) and where primary completion and GER2 is low (Ethiopia). In the latter attrition through to the end of primary is very high but most who survive enter lower secondary. Depending on how transition rates are defined they may fall as enrolment rates and efficiency increases – most obviously when secondary participation grows but at a rate slower than the output of primary schools. They may also rise as a result of a slowing growth in primary output without any increase in secondary school places. Primary completion rates are not used in the classification since these too are difficult to interpret and often not available. If they are defined as the number graduating from the last year of primary school (with or without repeaters) compared to the number in that age group entering school six years before they can change in unpredictable ways depending on how patterns of repetition and drop out develop between years. Table 7 Classification of Enrolment Rates into Bands GER1 GER2

Overall GER2L GER2U Transition

Rate Pri/Sec

High (H) > 100% High (H) >60% High (H) >60% High (H) >50% High (H) >60%

Medium (M)

80-100% Medium (M)

40-60% Medium (M)

40-60% Medium (M)

25-50% Medium (M)

50%-60%

Low (L) 70%-80% Low (L) 20-40% Low (L) 20-40% Low (L) 10-25% Low (L) 40%60%

Very Low <80% Very Low (VL)

<20% Very Low (VL)

<20% Very Low (VL)

<10% Very Low (VL)

<40%


38

Table 8 Patterns of Enrolment in SSA – A Classification of Countries

Group Country37

GER1GER2L GER2U GER2 TransGER1 GER2L GER2U GER2Trans Rate Rate Cape Verde 120.6 100.0 53.7 67.1 72.2 H H H H H Seychelles 114.3 112.6 108.2 110.9 99.0 H H H H H South Africa 105.6 101.7 78.2 83.6 94.0 H H H H H Mauritius 103.8 94.8 70.6 72.4 62.7 H H H H HA Botswana 103.3 86.1 51.8 70.3 93.9 H H H H H Namibia 105.0 80.0 32.8 62.4 84.9 H H M H H Gabon 132.2 63.0 32.0 49.5 H H M M Togo 121.2 61.0 16.0 42.8 62.5 H H L M H S T + Principe 126.4 65.4 23.0 39.0 64.5 H H L L H Lesotho 126.4 42.7 22.2 34.2 66.9 H M L L H Eq. Guinea 126.2 41.0 12.5 27.7 H M L L Madagascar 119.6 22.4 55.0 16.0 44.6 H L H VL LB Cameroon 107.6 29.0 38.0 25.5 43.0 H L M L L Nigeria 119.4 39.7 32.9 36.4 H L M L Liberia 105.4 39.9 27.7 21.1 H L M L Benin 109.3 37.0 14.0 25.1 51.1 H L L L M Mozambique 103.4 34.8 7.5 15.2 58.6 H L VL VL M Uganda 140.7 25.3 9.5 18.8 42.2 H L VL VL L Rwanda 122.0 16.0 13.0 14.2 42.0 H VL L VL L Malawi 140.1 19.5 15.5 17.6 31.0 H VL L VL VL Zimbabwe 93.9 60.3 29.8 40.3 71.5 M H M M H Swaziland 98.2 54.4 30.9 44.5 78.1 M M M M H Gambia 85.2 47.5 19.5 33.9 78.5 M M L L H Congo 80.4 42.0 17.0 27.9 60.0 M M L L HC Zambia 82.2 41.1 18.5 27.4 54.0 M M L L M Kenya 92.4 38.7 24.0 32.3 72.5 M L L L H Comoros 89.6 35.9 24.2 30.9 58.2 M L L L M Guinea 81.5 29.6 16.1 23.4 47.7 M L L L L U R Tanzania 84.2 10.0 2.0 6.4 20.4 M VL VL VL VL Ghana 78.7 57.2 20.8 38.6 86.8 L M L L H Sierra Leone 78.9 27.4 25.3 22.7 L L M L Côte d'Ivoire 77.6 32.0 14.0 21.4 39.7 L L L L VLD Senegal 79.9 25.2 10.6 19.1 40.1 L L L VL L Chad 78.3 14.0 9.0 14.3 43.8 L VL VL VL L Burundi 77.3 13.0 7.8 10.1 21.3 L VL VL VL VL Angola 74.4 18.7 8.7 10.8 L VL VL VL Eritrea 63.4 42.6 20.1 27.8 82.8 VL M L L H

Guinea-Bissau 69.7 22.0 10.8 17.2 63.2 VL L L VL H

Mali 58.4 25.0 13.4 17.3 54.2 VL L L VL ME Ethiopia 66.0 30.1 8.0 18.9 95.7 VL L VL VL H

CAR 65.5 14.6 5.0 10.8 54.0 VL VL VL VL M Niger 43.5 10.0 2.5 6.9 42.1 VL VL VL VL L Burkina Faso 46.2 15.7 5.1 10.6 39.9 VL VL VL VL VL D R Congo 47.1 20.0 VL L

37

All data from UNESCO Institute of Statistics, Global Education Digest 2003-5, and the EFA Global Monitoring Reports 2002-5. Data are for 2002/3 wherever possible, or latest year available.


39

To increase confidence in the patterns suggested above a data set was constructed using grade by grade enrolments for each country38. The pattern of enrolment was then plotted and grouped according to values for GER 1 and nominal participation rates in grade 9, taken as the mid point of secondary schooling in most cases. Five groups emerged with a slightly different membership from the classification above. Figures 27-31 show the patterns. The index of participation39 is a proxy for grade by grade Gross Enrolment Rates. Countries in Group 1 have high participation rates through to upper secondary with low attrition. Figure 27 shows that on average the index of participation (IP) is close to 100% in grade 1 and only falls to 75% by grade 9. GER1 is between 95% and 114% with enrolment patterns suggesting low levels of over age enrolment. Seychelles, South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Swaziland fall into this group. Group 2 countries have very different pattern (Figure 28). Here initial enrolment rates are very high with an IP for grade 1 which can exceed 200%. GER1 varies from 100% to 140%. Attrition is steep and the IP falls to about 20% by grade 9. In these systems primary has been expanded rapidly but completion rates are low and very small numbers enter lower secondary. Upper secondary enrolment is minimal. These countries include Uganda, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi, Madagascar, and Mozambique40. Group 3 countries have an IP in grade 1 of about 150% and GER1 rates of 108% to 126% (Figure 29). Attrition is lower than in Group 2 with more surviving to grade 9 where the IP is about 35%. The Group includes Togo, Lesotho, Sao Tome and Principe, Nigeria, Benin and Cameroon. Group 4 has lower initial values for the IP below 100% which fall more rapidly than for Group 3 to about IP 25% by grade 9 (Figure 30). GER1 is between 78% and 92% indicating that many do not complete primary school. This group includes Gambia, Zambia, Kenya, Comoros, Congo, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire. Group 5 all have low entry levels and low values of IP through to grade 9 (Figure 31). GER1 varies from 44% to 84%. These are all countries which have low or very low rates of participation at secondary. They have low rates of attrition but few enrolled. Unlike Group 2 their entry rates are well below levels necessary to universalise primary. This group includes Guinea, Tanzania, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, Chad, Burkina-Faso and Niger.

38 These were available for 38 countries 39 The index of participation is based on the numbers enrolled in grade 1 compared with the number of children in the grade 1 age group for that year and for subsequent years. It therefore approximates a grade by grade enrolment rate. 40 Malawi falls in this high attrition group since its participation rates at secondary are low; Uganda does also. In both cases it is likely private enrolments are under counted.


40

Figure 27 Group 1; High GER1, High GER2L and GER2U, Low Attrition

Figure 28 Group 2; High GER1, LowGER2L and GER2U, High Attrition

Figure 29 Group 3; High GER1, Mid GER2L and GER2U; Mid Attrition

Figure 30 Group 4; Mid GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U; Mid Attrition

Figure 31 Group 5; Low GER1, Very Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Attrition.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Pat

icip

atio

n Seychelles GER1 114South Africa GER1 106Botswana GER1 103Mauritius GER1 104Namibia GER1 105Zimbabwe GER1 94Swaziland GER1 98

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Uganda GER1 141Rwanda GER1 122Equatorial Guinea GER1 126Malawi GER1 140Madagascar GER1 120Mozambique GER1 103

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Togo GER1 121Lesotho GER1 126S. T. + Principe GER1 126Nigeria GER1 119Benin GER1 109Cameroon GER1 108

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n Gambia GER1 85Zambia GER1 82Kenya GER1 92Comoros GER1 90Congo GER1 80Ghana GER1 79Côte d'Ivoire GER1 78

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticip

atio

n

Guinea GER1 82U. R. Tanzania GER1 84Eritrea GER1 63Ethiopia GER1 66Senegal GER1 80Mali GER1 58Guinea-Bissau GER1 70Burundi GER1 77Chad GER1 78Burkina Faso GER1 46Niger GER1 43.5


41

Figure 32 shows a consolidation of the five types of enrolment patterns identified from the analysis based on the profiles in Table 9. This is useful to conceptualise policy options for different country cases. Figure 32 Generic Chart of Enrolment Patterns – SSA

Table 9 Generic Patterns of Enrolment in Primary and Secondary - SSA

Entry Rate

Attrition Grade 6/Grade 1

Transition Grade 7/Grade 6


Transition Grade 10/Grade9


Group 1 110% 91% 95% 84% 88% 86% Group 2 240% 21% 50% 52% 54% 43% Group 3 150% 50% 73% 55% 60% 67% Group 4 90% 67% 67% 50% 60% 58% Group 5 75% 40% 50% 47% 57% 50% Group 1 countries have succeeded in approaching universal access through primary school and into lower secondary. They face low rates of future growth related to growth in the school age cohort. Several of these countries have experienced demographic transition and in some cases (e.g. Mauritius) the number of school of school age children will actually fall. Group 2 countries have very large numbers in the lower primary grades. In this case if all entrants were to proceed to the end of primary then the number of primary graduates would increase five fold after six years. The entry rate into grade 1 should fall as enrolment at official age becomes more common. Repetition should also decrease. Together these would reduce the numbers in grade 1. Growth in the population of school age will act in the other direction to increase enrolments in grade 1. In group 2 countries it will difficult if not impossible to hold transition rates into lower secondary.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticpa

tion

1.Hi GER1 Hi GER2


3.Hi GER1Mid GER2

4.Mid GER1Low GER2



1

2

3

4

5


42

However gross enrolment rates to secondary could and should continue to grow, albeit at a rate below that of the growth of primary school leavers. Group 3 countries also have high growth rates of primary leavers. If all enrolled in grade 1 reached grade 6 then the number of primary school leavers would double in six years. Group 4 and 5 countries have low values for primary grade 1 intake and for GER1. If these remain low the number of primary completers will increase to less than double current output. Critically, countries in groups 4 and 5 may come to resemble those in Group 2 if efforts to rapidly increase primary entry and completion rates are successful. Group 3 countries are closer to universalising primary and may face less of a challenge in expanding secondary enrolments to keep pace with increased primary output. Table 10 outlines characteristics of the different country groups. Table 10 A Typology of Challenges for the Expansion of Secondary in SSA Group Description Countries Prognosis Group 1 High GER1, High

GER2L and GER2U, Low Attrition

Seychelles, South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Zimbabwe41, Swaziland

High participation rates at all levels and low population growth. Mostly higher income. Secondary expansion needed is modest and likely to be well within domestic resources

Group 2 High GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U, High Attrition

Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique

High GER1 but high attrition through primary grades. Transition rates likely to fall as large numbers of primary entrants flow through to the last grade of primary. Very high rates of secondary expansion needed to maintain transition rates. Financing of secondary expansion problematic even with reforms. More investment in primary quality, reduced repetition, and higher completion needed.

Group 3 High GER1, Mid Range GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Togo, Lesotho, ST + Principe, Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon

High GER 1 with mid range attrition through primary. Difficult to maintain transition rates if primary completion rates increase. Secondary expansion needed to enrol more than 50% through lower secondary. Financing of secondary expansion feasible but requires reforms

Group 4 Mid Range GER1, Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Gambia, Zambia, Kenya, Comoros, Congo, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire

GER1 below 100 with substantial numbers not enrolling or completing primary. Mid range attrition reflects low initial enrolment, high repetition and drop out. Transition rates mid range but participation in secondary low. Substantial expansion needed to reach 50% in lower secondary. Financing of secondary expansion challenging, and in competition with need for more investment to increase GER1. Strategic focus needed.

Group 5 LowGER1, Very Low GER2L and GER2U, Mid Range Attrition

Guinea, Tanzania, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger

Low GER 1 with most not completing primary. Mid range attrition reflects low entry rates, high repetition and drop out. Transition rates mid range but participation in secondary very low. Massive expansion needed to reach 50% GER in lower secondary. Priority likely to be to finance increased primary participation in advance of modest rates of strategically focused expansion at secondary

Figure 32 thus highlights the fact that different strategies will be needed in different countries for structural reasons. The dynamics of growth at primary level will not be 41 Zimbabwe’s position may have changed since 2001 as a result of austerity and migration


43

the determinant of growth at lower and upper secondary. It would be unwise to make mechanical connections. Participation in secondary schooling can grow in terms of increased GER2s and this is the best indicator to adopt for targets42. How secondary will grow depends on the resource demands of universalising primary, the nature of the interaction between sustained UPE and flows through secondary school (especially adequate supply of secondary graduates to become primary teachers, and moderation of falls in transition rates so that they do not undermine the motivation to complete primary), and judgements of the demand for secondary level graduates in the labour force and higher education.

42 Net enrolment ratios might be better but are difficult to calculate reliably.


44

4. How Much Secondary Expansion is Affordable in SSA with and without Cost Related Reforms? An Overall View The financial resources needed to support different enrolment patterns can be calculated from knowledge of the cost per pupil as a % of GNP per capita, the number of pupils in the age group as a proportion of the total population, and the desired enrolment rates. Table 11 uses typical values for SSA for pupil teacher ratios; teachers’ salaries, non-teachers salaries, and non-salary expenditure as a percentage of GNP; and for school age groups as a percentage of the total population. The proportion of the education budget allocated to higher education and other activities apart from primary and secondary schooling has been estimated at 20%43. GER1 is set at 85%, GER2L (Lower secondary) 26%, GER2U (Upper secondary) 13%44. This pattern of costs and participation would require 1.95%, 0.75% and 0.61% of GNP to finance primary, lower and upper secondary respectively in this hypothetical case. When other categories of expenditure are included the total needed is about 3.96% of GNP which can be compared with the SSA average for 2001 of 3.90%45. Table 11 Scenario 1 – GER1 85%; GER2L26%; GER2U 13% Scenario 1 - SSA Typical Data Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec Other Ed. Total Pupil Teacher Ratio 44 30 20 Teacher salaries /GNP/capita 4.6 6.6 9.3 Non teaching salaries/GNP/capita 0.4 1.5 2.7 Non salary expenditure/GNP/capita 0.4 1.5 2.7 Teacher salaries as % of total recurrent 85% 69% 63% Total unit cost % GNP /cap 12% 32% 74% School age pop as % total pop 18% 9% 7% % school age pop enrolled (GER) 85% 26% 13% % budget on higher ed + other education 20% %GNP Needed 1.88% 0.75% 0.67% 0.66% 3.96% Scenario 2 models the cost of increasing GER1 to 110% (a level necessary to ensure universal enrolment and completion with some repetition), GER2L 60% (allowing Net Enrolment Rates over 50%) and GER2U 30% (allowing Net Enrolment Rates over 25%). This pattern would require over 6.8% of GNP or nearly 3 percentage points more than the SSA average (Table 12). This would seem unrealistic and is 43 There are no reliable cross national data on higher education and other spending that can be used. Sector work does indicate very wide variations in Higher Education allocations from over 40% to below 10%. Expenditure on central and decentralised services is often not allocated by level. Other sub sectors – further education below university level, technical and vocational education, adult education, agricultural training etc. – vary widely between countries and are difficult to compare. Generally they absorb small proportions of the total education budget. 44 These typical values are estimated from UIS data 2001/2 for SSA. 45 The GMR (2005) gives an average of 3.4% of GNP for education expenditure across an incomplete data set. If countries with GNP/capita below $1500 are selected the average is 3.9%.


45

more than the average for developed countries (5.1%). Cost saving reforms are needed. Table 12 Scenario 2 – GER1 110%; GER2L 60%; GER2U 30%

Scenario 2 - UPE+GER2L60%+ GER2U30% No Reforms; Current Cost Structure Increased participation rates Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec Other Ed. Total Pupil Teacher Ratio 44 30 20 Teacher salaries /GNP/capita 4.6 6.6 9.3 Non teaching salaries/GNP/capita 0.4 1.5 2.7 Non salary expenditure/GNP/capita 0.4 1.5 2.7 Teacher salaries as % of total recurrent 85% 69% 63% Total unit cost % GNP /cap 12% 32% 74% School age pop as % total pop 18% 9% 7% % school age pop enrolled (GER) 110% 60% 30% % budget on higher ed + other education 20% %GNP Needed 2.43% 1.73% 1.54% 1.14% 6.84% Scenario 3 shows the financial effect of reforms that would reduce the pupil teacher ratio at primary to 40:146, and increase it to 35:1 at lower secondary and 25:1 at upper secondary. This would be coupled with a reduction in teachers’ cost per pupil to 3.5, 4.5 and 6 times GNP per capita at primary, and lower and upper secondary respectively47. This system would require about 5.1% of GNP to finance and would still require very considerable increases in allocation from current average SSA levels (Table 13). Table 13 Scenario 3 - Reform Package 1

Scenario 3 - Reform Package 1 PTR primary reduced, secondary increased Reduced Teachers costs as % GNP Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec Other Ed. Total Pupil Teacher Ratio 40 35 25 Teacher salaries /GNP/capita 3.5 4.5 6 Non teaching salaries/GNP/capita 0.4 1.6 2.7 Non salary expenditure/GNP/capita 0.4 1.6 2.7 Teacher salaries as % of total recurrent 81% 58% 53% Total unit cost % GNP /cap 11% 22% 46% School age pop as % total pop 18% 9% 7% % school age pop enrolled (GER) 110% 60% 30% % budget on higher ed + other education 20% %GNP Needed 2.13% 1.19% 0.96% 0.86% 5.13%

46 This would increased costs per pupil but is generally agreed to be a desirable target for the PTR. It implies class sizes of up to 50:1 depending on teacher’s work loads. 47 These levels are chosen partly as a result of levels found in high enrolment countries, and partly because much higher levels preclude substantial enrolment growth with sustainable financing.


46

Scenario 4 introduces additional cost saving reductions by assuming that both non-teaching salaries and non-salary costs per pupil can fall as the proportion of boarding places reduces as systems expand and day schools become more common. A reduction to 75% of current levels has been applied. It also assumes that costs associated with other activities apart from primary and secondary schooling (predominantly higher education) can be reduced through strategic cost recovery to 15% of the education budget. In this scenario 4.6% of GNP is needed (Table 14).

Table 14 Scenario 4 - Reform Package 2 (including Reform Package 1)

Scenario 4 - Reform Package 2 Reduced non teaching salaries Reduced non salary costs Reduce other education expenditure incl HE Primary Lower SecUpper Sec Other Ed. Total Pupil Teacher Ratio 40 35 25 Teacher salaries /GNP/capita 3.5 4.5 6 Non teaching salaries/GNP/capita 0.4 1.2 2.0 Non salary expenditure/GNP/capita 0.4 1.2 2.0 Teacher salaries as % of total recurrent 81% 65% 60% Total unit cost % GNP /cap 11% 20% 40% School age pop as % total pop 18% 9% 7% % school age pop enrolled (GER) 110% 60% 30% % budget on higher ed + other education 15% %GNP Needed 2.13% 1.06% 0.84% 0.61% 4.64% Lastly Scenario 5 shows the cost of universalising lower secondary (GER2L =100%) with all the other reforms in place. The outcome is that about 5.5% of GNP would be needed (Table 15). Table 15 Scenario 5 – GER1 110%; GER2L 100%; GER2U 30% Reforms 1+2 Scenario 5 - GER2L 100% GER2U 30% Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec Other Ed. Total Pupil Teacher Ratio 40 35 25 Teacher salaries /GNP/capita 3.5 4.5 6 Non teaching salaries/GNP/capita 0.4 1.2 2.0 Non salary expenditure/GNP/capita 0.4 1.2 2.0 Teacher salaries as % of total recurrent 81% 65% 60% Total unit cost % GNP /cap 11% 20% 40% School age pop as % total pop 18% 9% 7% % school age pop enrolled (GER) 110% 100% 30% % budget on higher ed + other education 15% %GNP Needed 2.13% 1.77% 0.84% 0.71% 5.46% The results of these scenarios make it very clear that without cost saving reforms of the kinds indicated, and other reforms discussed below, greatly increased secondary


47

participation rates will be difficult or impossible to attain or sustain. Scenario 2 would require an average increase in public financing of about 70%, equivalent to about $6.8 billion a year at 2001 prices for those SSA countries with a GNP per capita below $1500. Scenario 3 would require an additional $2.9 billion, scenario 4 $1.7 billion a year, and Scenario 5 $3.7 billion. Since these estimates are based on a hypothetical system they only provide a rough guide to possible costs. National education system data can be used to improve these estimates.

Country Level Analyses of the Cost of Secondary Expansion in SSA.

Before discussing in detail the reforms that may be necessary to make expanded access more affordable it is useful to translate the aggregate analysis of resource needs into country level challenges. The first step in this is to identify the resources needed to achieve universal primary education since this is a prioritised commitment for public resources for education. The recurrent cost of universalising primary schooling can be calculated using the identity:

GER1 = X1 /A1C1 where: X1 = Public expenditure on primary education as a percentage of GNP

C1 = Public recurrent expenditure on primary schooling per student as a percentage of GNP per Capita A1 = The proportion of the population of primary school age

It follows that: X1 = GER1 * A1 C1 The values of A1 in SSA vary from 10% (Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles) to 22 % (Malawi, Kenya) with an average of 17.6% for countries with a GNP/capita below $1500. The values for each country have been used. Comparable data on C1 for SSA is incomplete. The average for 16 countries in the UIS data base is 12% with a range between 5% (Madagascar) and 20% (Namibia). A target value of 12% has been chosen for all cases. This is somewhat less than the average for developed countries of 19%, but comparable to the current average. It represents a minimum level likely to be needed for effective primary schooling. Table 17 shows the values of X1 needed to universalise primary schooling in SSA48 interpreted as a GER1 of 110%49. This should be sufficient to achieve NERs of close to 100% given that some overage enrolment will persist as will some repetition. It shows what the costs of the current systems would be if the goal of GER110% was to be realised without accounting for future expansion in the number of school age children (see later). The results suggest that X1 varies from about 1.4% of GNP (Seychelles, Sao Tome and Principe, Mauritius) to over 2.5% of GNP (Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe). On 48 All in constant 2001 US$ 49 Actual primary cycle lengths have been used in these calculations, not a standard six year cycle. These are less than six years in some countries.


48

average 2.3% of GNP is needed to finance universal enrolment at primary level given current primary cycle length, age distribution of children and cost per child at 12% of GNP per capita. The US $ amount per child for all costs (not shown) varies from a low of $10 in the DR Congo and $12 in Burundi and Ethiopia, reflecting their low nominal GNPs per capita, to over $ 450 in Mauritius, and the Seychelles. On this basis about $6.8 billion per annum is needed to support universal primary enrolment (2001 constant US $). This reduces to $3.7 billion if countries with GNP per capita over $1500 (South Africa, Botswana, Gabon, Mauritius and Seychelles) are excluded. The total for this group would rise to $4.95 by 2015 as a result of growth in the numbers of school age children using country by country estimates of the growth in the entry age group50. These figures can be compared with a total education expenditure of about $6.36 billion51 in low income SSA in the base year of 2001. Thus the aggregate cost of universalising primary education with these assumptions appears to be about 58% of total public expenditure on education in SSA. Expanded secondary schooling has to be financed from the remaining 42% of resources unless or until these are enhanced through additional external assistance. These estimates are conservative. The cost per primary child may well be judged too low to support effective primary schooling if it is only 12% of GNP per capita, amounting to not much more than $10 per child in the poorest countries. If this were raised through a combination of enhanced teacher’s salaries, improved supplies of teaching materials and other pro-poor subsidies costs would rise pro-rata. Public expenditure needed to support expanded secondary schooling is determined by the same identity.

X2 = GER2 * A2C2 where:

X2 = Public expenditure on secondary education as a percentage of GNP C2 = Public recurrent expenditure on secondary schooling per student as

a percentage of GNP per Capita A2 = The proportion of the population of secondary school age Projecting these costs is more complex since most systems distinguish between lower and upper secondary which have different costs per pupil and different lengths. A2 at lower secondary ranges from 5% (Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya52, Mozambique, Seychelles, Zambia) to over 10% (Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Mali, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe). At upper secondary the range for A2 is from about 3% (Malawi, Seychelles, Sao Tome and Principe, Malawi) to over 9% (Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia). In both cases it is highest where lower secondary cycles are longest and population growth lowest and vice versa. The averages for lower and upper secondary in low income countries are 8.8% and 6.9%.

50 A four year average growth rate in school age entrants was computed for each country using UN Population statistics. 51 Based on proportion of GNP allocated to education and excluding Somalia. 52 The four year cycle in Kenya has been treated as 2+2 in this analysis.


49

C2 is very variable between countries, and between lower and upper secondary. It is affected by the ratio of teachers salaries at different levels, the mix of boarding, the number of specialised schools, and the extent of subsidy of non-government provision, and the magnitudes of administrative and non salary expenditure. UIS data (17 cases) suggest that unit costs at secondary average about 25% GNP per capita in SSA and values tend to be higher in the countries with the lowest enrolments. Mingat (2005) estimates C2 as averaging 31% at lower secondary and 63% at upper secondary with very wide dispersions in each case53. Values of 30% and 60% of GNP per capita for lower and upper secondary were adopted to model the costs of achieving given levels of enrolment. These values are consistent with other estimates of unit costs and with sector level country data. Table 17 shows the results of the projections for secondary schooling. These indicate that with the current disposition of cycle length and numbers of school age children achieving a GER2L = 60% at lower secondary would require anywhere between less than 1% (Botswana, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia) to over 2% (Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Zimbabwe) of GNP per capita. At upper secondary to achieve a GER2U = 30% the range is from less than 0.8% (Guinea-Bisau, Malawi, Sao Tome, Seychelles, Uganda) to over 2% (D R Congo, Ethiopia) of GNP. The amounts reflect the current length of lower and upper secondary cycles which vary widely54. They are also sensitive to the proportion of school age children in the population and their rate of growth. On average 1.5% and 1.2 % of GNP per capita is needed to support lower and upper secondary schooling at the projected enrolment rates in low enrolment SSA. This is equivalent to about $2.4 billion and $2.0 billion per year in 2001 rising to $3.2 billion and $2.7 billion by 2015. The costs of higher education and other education sub-sectors are not available in comparable forms across countries. An assumption has been made that these costs account on average for 20% of total public expenditure. On this basis total expenditure on education would need to be about 6.3% of GNP to sustain systems with GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% in low income SSA. This is equivalent to about $10.2 billion rising to $13.5 billion by 2015. The projections above have been re-run to establish the effect of targeting GER1=110%, GER2L=100% and GER2U=50%. The result is that on average 2.6% and 2.0% of GNP per capita is needed to support lower and upper secondary schooling at the projected enrolment rates. This is equivalent to about $4.1 billion and $3.3 billion per year in 2001 rising to $5.4 billion and $4.5 billion by 2015 (Table 18). Current educational expenditure in low income SSA appears to average about 3.9% of GNP equivalent to $6.4 billion for countries with GNP per capita below $1500. This is about $3.8 billion less than is needed to sustain systems with higher enrolment rates. About 73% of this is accounted for by Nigeria, Cameroon, Uganda, Tanzania, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar and Senegal. 53 Based on 17 World Bank Sector Studies. 54 This approach to modelling was chosen in the absence of any restructuring that might change the length of lower and upper secondary cycles.


50

For the higher enrolment rate targets total recurrent expenditure on education would need to be about 8.4% of GNP on average to sustain systems with GER1=110%, GER2L=100% and GER2U=50% in low income SSA. This is equivalent to about $13.9 billion rising to $18.5 billion per year by 2015. This is about $7.5 billion (at 2001 prices) more than is available from current patterns of expenditure. However, this method of indicating the financial resources needed simply compares what would be necessary with what is currently allocated in aggregate. Individual countries may not be allocating resources to primary, secondary and higher education in the proportions they need to achieve GER1 = 110%, GER2L = 60%, and GER2U 30%. In the data set nine countries are spending as much or more than they need to support these outcomes but are not all achieving them for this reason. Overall Table 17 indicates that the projected levels of enrolment (GER1 110%, GER2 Lower 60% and GER2 Upper 30%) could only be achieved if on average more than 6% of GNP were allocated to recurrent education budgets. This is consistent with the generic estimates above which led to the conclusion that reforms were needed that could reduce costs per pupil to lower levels if expanded secondary enrolment was to be achieved in much of SSA. If the country by country projections are re-run using lower values for the cost per pupil as a percentage of GNP per capita (i.e. 20% for lower secondary and 40 % for upper secondary), and all other expenditure on higher education and other sectors was reduced to 15% of the total, affordability increases. On average about 4.8% of GNP would be sufficient to achieve the outcomes – a level which some SSA countries achieve and which is close to the average for developed countries with high enrolments at secondary. This would require additional recurrent expenditure of about $1.5 billion per year over 2001 levels55. If the higher enrolment targets are used 6.5% of GNP would be needed with a recurrent shortfall of about $3.8 billion a year. However, these estimates assume substantial reductions in the costs of higher education and other recurrent expenditure from 20% to about 15% of the total education budget. Achieving reductions in costs per pupil to these levels would require radical reforms and may not be within reach in the countries with much higher costs per pupil as a percentage of GNP. It would also result in considerable reductions in higher education and other expenditure (by as much as 40% over the previous projection) which may not be feasible56. The results for the two scenarios (GER1=110%, GER2L = 60% and GER2U = 30% and GER1 =110%, GER2L = 100% and GER2U = 50%) are summarised in Table 16 based on the country by country estimates. This also shows the impact of reducing unit costs to 20% and 40% of GNP/Capita from the baseline assumption of 30% and 60% at lower and upper secondary. 55 Assuming budget share allocation was designed to support the pattern of GER1 100%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30%. 56 The model sets higher education and other costs as a proportion of total recurrent expenditure. Since total costs are reduced so are higher education and other costs over and above a reduction from 20% to 15% of total costs.


51

Table 16 Summary Table of Cost Projections GER1=110,GER2L=60,GER2U=30 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 30% GNP/cap; U Sec=60% GNP/Cap, HE+ 20%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000

Primary 2.3% 3,746,766 4,953,269 Lower Secondary 1.5% 2,432,571 3,221,321 Upper Secondary 1.2% 2,007,447 2,670,555 Other incl HE 1.3% 2,046,696 2,711,286 Total 6.3% 10,233,479 13,556,431 3.9% 6,390,486 3,842,993 GER1=110,GER2L=100,GER2U=50 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 30% GNP/cap; U Sec=60% GNP/Cap, HE+ 20%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000


Baseline Enrolment Targets, Cost Saving Reforms GER1=110,GER2L=60,GER2U=30 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 20% GNP/cap; U Sec=40% GNP/Cap, HE+ = 15%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000

Primary 2.3% 3,746,766 4,953,269 Lower Secondary 1.0% 1,621,714 2,147,547 Upper Secondary 0.8% 1,338,298 1,780,370 Other incl HE 0.7% 1,183,746 1,567,529 Total 4.8% 7,890,524 10,448,715 3.9% 6,390,486 1,500,037 Higher Enrolment Targets, Cost Saving Reforms GER1=110,GER2L=100,GER2U=50 Cost Per Pupil - Primary=12%GNP/Cap; L Sec = 20% GNP/cap; U Sec=40% GNP/Cap, HE+ = 15%

%GNP Needed

Amount Needed

Amount needed

% GNP Available

Amount Available

Annual Shortfall

2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2015 2002 US$ 2002 US$ 2002 000 000 000 000



52

Table 17 Recurrent Costs of GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30%

Baseline GER1=110;GER2L=60;GER2U=30

UNIT Cost - Primary =12% GNP/Cap; L.Sec = 30%GNP/Cap; GERU= 60% GNP/Cap

A1 % of School Age Population

X1 % of GNP Needed

Cost GER1 110%

A2L % of School Age Population

X2 L % of GNP Needed

Cost of GER 60%

A2U % of school age population

X2 U % of GNP Needed

Cost of GER 30%

HE+ Other % GNP Needed

Cost of Higher Education + Other Education Expenditure

Total % GNP Needed

Total Cost

Current Expenditure on Education as % of GNP

Current Expenditure on Education

Difference between Current Expenditure and Expenditure Needed

Primary US$ '000 Lower Secondary

US$ '000 Upper Secondary

US$ '000 US$ '000 US$ '000

Angola 12.0% 1.6% 101073 8.0% 1.4% 91747 9.5% 1.7% 108647 1.2% 75367 5.9% 376833 3.4% 217056 -159777

Benin 17.6% 2.3% 56307 10.6% 1.9% 46470 7.5% 1.3% 32575 1.4% 33838 7.0% 169190 3.3% 80093 -89098

Botswana 18.3% 2.4% 131248 5.1% 0.9% 49828 7.5% 1.4% 73678 1.2% 63689 5.9% 318443 2.3% 124775 -193668

B. Faso 17.4% 2.3% 62061 9.8% 1.8% 47664 6.5% 1.2% 31778 1.3% 35376 6.6% 176878 4.0% 107879 -68999

Burundi 18.4% 2.4% 15555 11.9% 2.2% 13788 8.8% 1.6% 10160 1.5% 9876 7.7% 49379 3.7% 23724 -25655

Cameroon 17.1% 2.3% 202477 10.9% 2.0% 176339 8.0% 1.4% 128344 1.4% 126790 7.1% 633950 3.4% 304260 -329690

Cape Verde 16.5% 2.2% 12984 8.5% 1.5% 9131 8.7% 1.6% 9322 1.3% 7859 6.6% 39297 4.0% 23852 -15445

CAR 16.9% 2.2% 21902 10.4% 1.9% 18399 7.4% 1.3% 13057 1.4% 13340 6.8% 66698 4.0% 39208 -27490

Chad 17.4% 2.3% 37203 9.9% 1.8% 28749 6.6% 1.2% 19250 1.3% 21301 6.6% 106503 2.0% 32412 -74091

Comoros 15.9% 2.1% 5802 9.2% 1.6% 4549 6.2% 1.1% 3077 1.2% 3357 6.1% 16785 4.0% 11035 -5750

Congo 17.5% 2.3% 52221 9.8% 1.8% 40104 6.6% 1.2% 26737 1.3% 29765 6.6% 148827 4.6% 104276 -44551

Côte d'Ivoire 16.5% 2.2% 221393 10.8% 2.0% 198005 8.0% 1.4% 146816 1.4% 141553 7.0% 707767 4.9% 496945 -210822

D.R. Congo 17.6% 2.3% 92470 5.4% 1.0% 38464 10.0% 1.8% 72027 1.3% 50740 6.4% 253702 3.0% 119484 -134218

Eq. Guinea 13.4% 1.8% 5790 9.4% 1.7% 5559 6.4% 1.2% 3775 1.2% 3781 5.8% 18906 2.2% 7207 -11698

Eritrea 14.0% 1.8% 11367 4.9% 0.9% 5439 8.8% 1.6% 9739 1.1% 6636 5.4% 33181 2.7% 16619 -16562

Ethiopia 17.0% 2.2% 151026 5.2% 0.9% 62543 9.6% 1.7% 116741 1.2% 82577 6.1% 412887 4.8% 322877 -90010

Gabon 16.8% 2.2% 90158 10.9% 2.0% 79608 8.0% 1.4% 58502 1.4% 57067 7.0% 285334 4.6% 186497 -98838

Gambia 15.1% 2.0% 8599 6.7% 1.2% 5195 6.2% 1.1% 4795 1.1% 4647 5.4% 23236 2.8% 12105 -11131

Ghana 16.1% 2.1% 123743 7.8% 1.4% 81487 7.6% 1.4% 79624 1.2% 71213 6.1% 356067 4.2% 243941 -112126

Guinea 16.2% 2.1% 72168 9.7% 1.7% 58739 6.7% 1.2% 40778 1.3% 42921 6.4% 214606 1.9% 64205 -150401

G-Bissau 16.6% 2.2% 4939 7.1% 1.3% 2887 4.4% 0.8% 1768 1.1% 2398 5.3% 11992 2.3% 5178 -6814


53

Kenya 22.0% 2.9% 315440 5.5% 1.0% 106895 5.4% 1.0% 106639 1.2% 132243 6.1% 661217 6.3% 684983 23766

Lesotho 18.6% 2.5% 23388 8.2% 1.5% 14100 5.6% 1.0% 9547 1.2% 11759 6.2% 58794 8.0% 76066 17271

Liberia 15.9% 2.1% 9127 6.1% 1.1% 4782 5.1% 0.9% 4022 1.0% 4483 5.2% 22413 4.0% 17354 -5059

Madagascar 14.2% 1.9% 80005 9.8% 1.8% 75413 6.6% 1.2% 50483 1.2% 51475 6.0% 257376 2.5% 106854 -150522

Malawi 22.0% 2.9% 54096 4.5% 0.8% 14992 4.1% 0.7% 13823 1.1% 20728 5.6% 103638 4.2% 78133 -25505

Mali 17.7% 2.3% 65812 10.1% 1.8% 51057 6.8% 1.2% 34280 1.3% 37788 6.7% 188938 2.9% 81748 -107190

Mauritius 11.5% 1.5% 69371 8.2% 1.5% 67732 4.3% 0.8% 35348 0.9% 43113 4.7% 215564 3.3% 151415 -64149

Mozambique 20.2% 2.7% 102004 5.5% 1.0% 37749 8.0% 1.4% 55038 1.3% 48698 6.4% 243489 2.5% 95571 -147918

Namibia 20.3% 2.7% 101598 8.1% 1.5% 55054 5.2% 0.9% 35346 1.3% 48000 6.3% 239998 7.7% 291276 51277

Niger 17.2% 2.3% 45561 9.4% 1.7% 33919 6.1% 1.1% 22130 1.3% 25403 6.3% 127013 2.4% 48099 -78914

Nigeria 17.3% 2.3% 781095 7.8% 1.4% 481337 7.3% 1.3% 450122 1.3% 428139 6.3% 2140693 3.0% 1025060 -1115632

Rwanda 15.7% 2.1% 36887 6.4% 1.2% 20455 5.6% 1.0% 17850 1.1% 18798 5.3% 93989 2.8% 49687 -44303

S T + Principe 10.4% 1.4% 590 11.4% 2.0% 876 4.1% 0.7% 314 1.0% 445 5.2% 2225 4.0% 1714 -511

Senegal 16.8% 2.2% 104752 10.6% 1.9% 89638 7.6% 1.4% 64444 1.4% 64709 6.9% 323543 3.2% 150857 -172686

Seychelles 10.8% 1.4% 7413 5.3% 1.0% 4969 3.5% 0.6% 3282 0.7% 3916 3.7% 19580 7.8% 40747 21167

Sierra Leone 15.8% 2.1% 13368 8.7% 1.6% 9970 5.7% 1.0% 6512 1.2% 7463 5.8% 37313 4.0% 25609 -11704

South Africa 16.6% 2.2% 2737579 7.4% 1.3% 1668113 5.0% 0.9% 1135590 1.1% 1385321 5.5% 6926603 5.8% 7264681 338078

Swaziland 20.4% 2.7% 37022 8.5% 1.5% 21097 5.6% 1.0% 13888 1.3% 18002 6.5% 90009 5.4% 74272 -15737

Togo 17.0% 2.2% 28334 10.1% 1.8% 22963 7.0% 1.3% 15894 1.3% 16798 6.6% 83989 4.9% 61996 -21993

Uganda 21.5% 2.8% 178545 10.1% 1.8% 114823 4.6% 0.8% 51719 1.4% 86272 6.8% 431358 2.5% 157463 -273895

U R Tanzania 20.0% 2.6% 253589 10.4% 1.9% 179365 4.9% 0.9% 85075 1.3% 129507 6.7% 647537 4.0% 384102 -263435

Zambia 20.2% 2.7% 90289 5.3% 0.9% 31974 7.5% 1.3% 45509 1.2% 41943 6.2% 209716 2.0% 67648 -142068

Zimbabwe 20.6% 2.7% 166183 11.9% 2.1% 130854 6.0% 1.1% 65801 1.5% 90710 7.4% 453548 11.1% 679640 226091

Average 17.0% 2.2% 8.4% 1.5% 6.6% 1.2% 1.2% 6.2% 4.0%

Total 6782535 4302821 3313847 3599801 17999004 14158602 -3840403

Ave. < GNP/cap $1500 17.3% 2.3% 8.6% 1.5% 6.7% 1.2% 1.3% 6.3% 3.9%

Total GNP/cap < $1500 3746766 2432571 2007447 2046696 10233479 6390486 -3842993


54

Table 18 Recurrent Costs of GER1 110%, GER2L 100% and GER2U 50%

Baseline GER1=110;GER2L=100

;GER2U=50

UNIT Cost - Primary =12% GNP/Cap; L.Sec = 30%GNP/Cap; GERU= 60% GNP/Cap

A1 % of School Age Population

X1 % of GNP Needed

Cost GER1 110%

A2L % of School Age Population

X2 L % of GNP Needed

Cost of GER 60%

A2U % of school age population

X2 U % of GNP Needed

Cost of GER 30%

HE+ Other % GNP Needed

Cost of Higher Education + Other Education Expenditure

Total % GNP Needed

Total Cost

Current Expenditure on Education as % of GNP

Current Expenditure on Education

Difference between Current Expenditure and Expenditure Needed

Primary US$ '000

Lower Secondary

US$ '000 Upper Secondary

US$ '000 US$ '000 US$ '000

Angola 12.0% 1.6% 101073 8.0% 2.4% 152911 9.5% 2.8% 181078 1.7% 108766 8.5% 543828 3.4% 217056 -326772

Benin 17.6% 2.3% 56307 10.6% 3.2% 77450 7.5% 2.2% 54291 1.9% 47012 9.7% 235061 3.3% 80093 -154968

Botswana 18.3% 2.4% 131248 5.1% 1.5% 83047 7.5% 2.3% 122797 1.6% 84273 7.8% 421365 2.3% 124775 -296590

B. Faso 17.4% 2.3% 62061 9.8% 2.9% 79440 6.5% 2.0% 52963 1.8% 48616 9.0% 243080 4.0% 107879 -135200

Burundi 18.4% 2.4% 15555 11.9% 3.6% 22980 8.8% 2.6% 16933 2.2% 13867 10.8% 69336 3.7% 23724 -45611

Cameroon 17.1% 2.3% 202477 10.9% 3.3% 293899 8.0% 2.4% 213907 2.0% 177571 9.9% 887853 3.4% 304260 -583593

Cape Verde 16.5% 2.2% 12984 8.5% 2.6% 15219 8.7% 2.6% 15537 1.8% 10935 9.2% 54675 4.0% 23852 -30823

CAR 16.9% 2.2% 21902 10.4% 3.1% 30664 7.4% 2.2% 21762 1.9% 18582 9.5% 92911 4.0% 39208 -53703

Chad 17.4% 2.3% 37203 9.9% 3.0% 47915 6.6% 2.0% 32083 1.8% 29300 9.0% 146502 2.0% 32412 -114090

Comoros 15.9% 2.1% 5802 9.2% 2.7% 7582 6.2% 1.9% 5128 1.7% 4628 8.4% 23141 4.0% 11035 -12105

Congo 17.5% 2.3% 52221 9.8% 2.9% 66840 6.6% 2.0% 44562 1.8% 40906 9.0% 204528 4.6% 104276 -100252

Côte d'Ivoire 16.5% 2.2% 221393 10.8% 3.3% 330009 8.0% 2.4% 244693 2.0% 199024 9.8% 995118 4.9% 496945 -498173

D.R. Congo 17.6% 2.3% 92470 5.4% 1.6% 64106 10.0% 3.0% 120046 1.7% 69156 8.7% 345778 3.0% 119484 -226294

Eq. Guinea 13.4% 1.8% 5790 9.4% 2.8% 9265 6.4% 1.9% 6292 1.6% 5337 8.1% 26684 2.2% 7207 -19477

Eritrea 14.0% 1.8% 11367 4.9% 1.5% 9065 8.8% 2.6% 16231 1.5% 9166 7.4% 45829 2.7% 16619 -29210

Ethiopia 17.0% 2.2% 151026 5.2% 1.5% 104239 9.6% 2.9% 194568 1.7% 112458 8.4% 562290 4.8% 322877 -239413

Gabon 16.8% 2.2% 90158 10.9% 3.3% 132681 8.0% 2.4% 97503 2.0% 80085 9.9% 400426 4.6% 186497 -213929

Gambia 15.1% 2.0% 8599 6.7% 2.0% 8658 6.2% 1.8% 7992 1.5% 6312 7.3% 31560 2.8% 12105 -19456

Ghana 16.1% 2.1% 123743 7.8% 2.3% 135812 7.6% 2.3% 132706 1.7% 98065 8.4% 490326 4.2% 243941 -246385

Guinea 16.2% 2.1% 72168 9.7% 2.9% 97898 6.7% 2.0% 67963 1.8% 59507 8.8% 297536 1.9% 64205 -233331

G-Bissau 16.6% 2.2% 4939 7.1% 2.1% 4812 4.4% 1.3% 2946 1.4% 3174 7.0% 15871 2.3% 5178 -10693


55

Kenya 22.0% 2.9% 315440 5.5% 1.6% 178158 5.4% 1.6% 177732 1.5% 167832 7.7% 839162 6.3% 684983 -154178

Lesotho 18.6% 2.5% 23388 8.2% 2.5% 23500 5.6% 1.7% 15912 1.7% 15700 8.3% 78500 8.0% 76066 -2434

Liberia 15.9% 2.1% 9127 6.1% 1.8% 7970 5.1% 1.5% 6703 1.4% 5950 6.9% 29750 4.0% 17354 -12396

Madagascar 14.2% 1.9% 80005 9.8% 2.9% 125688 6.6% 2.0% 84138 1.7% 72458 8.5% 362289 2.5% 106854 -255436

Malawi 22.0% 2.9% 54096 4.5% 1.3% 24986 4.1% 1.2% 23038 1.4% 25530 6.9% 127650 4.2% 78133 -49517

Mali 17.7% 2.3% 65812 10.1% 3.0% 85096 6.8% 2.0% 57134 1.8% 52011 9.2% 260053 2.9% 81748 -178305

Mauritius 11.5% 1.5% 69371 8.2% 2.5% 112887 4.3% 1.3% 58914 1.3% 60293 6.6% 301464 3.3% 151415 -150049

Mozambique 20.2% 2.7% 102004 5.5% 1.6% 62916 8.0% 2.4% 91730 1.7% 64162 8.4% 320812 2.5% 95571 -225241

Namibia 20.3% 2.7% 101598 8.1% 2.4% 91756 5.2% 1.6% 58911 1.7% 63066 8.3% 315332 7.7% 291276 -24056

Niger 17.2% 2.3% 45561 9.4% 2.8% 56532 6.1% 1.8% 36883 1.7% 34744 8.7% 173720 2.4% 48099 -125621

Nigeria 17.3% 2.3% 781095 7.8% 2.3% 802229 7.3% 2.2% 750204 1.7% 583382 8.5% 2916909 3.0% 1025060 -1891849

Rwanda 15.7% 2.1% 36887 6.4% 1.9% 34091 5.6% 1.7% 29750 1.4% 25182 7.1% 125910 2.8% 49687 -76223

S T + Principe 10.4% 1.4% 590 11.4% 3.4% 1459 4.1% 1.2% 524 1.5% 643 7.5% 3216 4.0% 1714 -1503

Senegal 16.8% 2.2% 104752 10.6% 3.2% 149397 7.6% 2.3% 107407 1.9% 90389 9.6% 451945 3.2% 150857 -301088

Seychelles 10.8% 1.4% 7413 5.3% 1.6% 8282 3.5% 1.0% 5470 1.0% 5291 5.1% 26456 7.8% 40747 14291

Sierra Leone 15.8% 2.1% 13368 8.7% 2.6% 16616 5.7% 1.7% 10854 1.6% 10210 8.0% 51048 4.0% 25609 -25439

South Africa 16.6% 2.2% 2737579 7.4% 2.2% 2780188 5.0% 1.5% 1892650 1.5% 1852604 7.4% 9263022 5.8% 7264681 -1998341

Swaziland 20.4% 2.7% 37022 8.5% 2.6% 35161 5.6% 1.7% 23147 1.7% 23833 8.7% 119163 5.4% 74272 -44891

Togo 17.0% 2.2% 28334 10.1% 3.0% 38271 7.0% 2.1% 26490 1.8% 23274 9.2% 116369 4.9% 61996 -54373

Uganda 21.5% 2.8% 178545 10.1% 3.0% 191371 4.6% 1.4% 86198 1.8% 114028 9.1% 570142 2.5% 157463 -412680

U R Tanzania 20.0% 2.6% 253589 10.4% 3.1% 298942 4.9% 1.5% 141792 1.8% 173581 9.0% 867904 4.0% 384102 -483802

Zambia 20.2% 2.7% 90289 5.3% 1.6% 53291 7.5% 2.2% 75849 1.6% 54857 8.1% 274286 2.0% 67648 -206638

Zimbabwe 20.6% 2.7% 166183 11.9% 3.6% 218090 6.0% 1.8% 109669 2.0% 123486 10.1% 617428 11.1% 679640 62212

Average 17.0% 2.2% 8.4% 2.5% 6.6% 2.0% 1.7% 8.4% 4.0%

Total 6782535 7171369 5523079 4869246 24346228 14158602 -10187626

Ave. < GNP/cap $1500 17.3% 2.3% 8.6% 2.6% 6.7% 2.0% 1.7% 8.6% 3.9%

Total GNP/cap < $1500 3746766 4054284 3345745 2786699 13933494 6390486 -7543008


56

Teacher Supply Issues

Expanded enrolment at secondary has to be supported by increased number of qualified teachers if the result is not to be larger classes and lower learning achievement. In some SSA countries this will prove to be a constraint on the rate at which secondary schooling can grow. Teacher demand is determined by: Td = Np/PTR - (Nq + Nu) - Na Where Td = Number of new teachers needed each year Np = number enrolled PTR = Pupil Teacher Ratio Nq = number of qualified teachers Nu = number of unqualified teachers Na = teacher attrition (the number leaving through ill health, retirement, migration, or for other jobs Estimates of teacher demand can be made using UIS data. In these projections targets of GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% in 2015 has been assumed. PTRs are set at 40:1, 35:1 and 25:1 at primary, lower and upper secondary respectively. An average attrition rate of 5% has been assumed for both primary and secondary teachers. In the case of the latter this may be too low57. The number of teachers needed to support these outcomes can be compared to the numbers currently teaching (including untrained teachers), and the rate of increase necessary calculated. The results show that on average the number of teachers would have to expand by about 10% per annum every year to 2015, with some SSA countries having to approach 20% per year (Figure 33). These rates are high. If teacher training output of new teachers were 10% of the total number of teachers, teacher attrition was 5%, and teacher training took three years, then the numbers entering training would have to double after two years. By the fifth year three times as many new entrants would be needed to keep pace. This may create bottlenecks for secondary expansion for several reasons. First, training new teachers has a significant lead time. Those who enter full time training on a three year programme in 2005/6 will not be in schools until 2008/9. If expansion precedes increased teacher training output, PTRs will increase. Second, the number of new entrants required for teaching may exceed the number qualified to enter who are willing and able to train. This depends on the output of successful secondary graduates who can be trained for primary and lower secondary

57 Especially where HIV and AIDS are prevalent. In some populations of teachers more than 20% may be sero-positive and suffer high rates of morbidity and premature death (e.g. HSRC 2005)


57

schools, and the output of degree holders who may be trained at higher education level58. Third, take up rates into training, and attrition rates for new teachers depend, on preferences linked to labour market conditions and the supply of higher education places. If the 5% attrition rates assumed are too low, especially for graduates, then more will have to be trained. Fourth, expanding teacher training capacity requires more teacher educators who need to be appointed in advance of expansion. If these are drawn from the ranks of experienced teachers this further increases teacher demand in schools. Fifth, the cost of teacher training depends on how it is organised. In some countries secondary training is located in higher education at higher education costs; in others it is in Colleges that operate above school costs but below those of higher education. Few countries spend more than 5% of their education budget on teacher training. Cumulative rates of expansion in training above 10% per annum may run into cost constraints if training costs per successful graduate are a large multiple of costs per pupil in schools. If the training of new teachers is to keep pace with demand then the length and costs of training may have to be reduced.

Figure 33 Rate of Increase in Teachers for GER1=110, GER2L=60, GER2U=30

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Niger

Burkina

Faso

Mali

Ethiop

iaCha

d

Eritrea

Congo

Guniea

-Biss

au

Mozam

bique

Rwanda

U. R. T

anza

nia

Malawi

Guinea

Benin

Madag

asca

r

Seneg

al

Comoro

s

Burund

i

Zambia

Gambia

Ugand

a

Camero

on

Côte d’

Ivoire

E. Guin

ea

Nigeria

Ghana

Zimba

bwe

TogoKen

ya

S. T. a

nd P

rincip

e

Namibi

a

Leso

tho

Swazila

nd

South

Africa

Botswan

a

Mauriti

us

Perc

ent G

row

th

PrimarySecondary

Development Expenditure Estimates

Expanded secondary requires development expenditure to construct additional classrooms, laboratories and workshops and new schools, provide furniture, equipment and learning materials, and provide supporting infrastructure. Costs are associated with design criteria and specifications and costs can vary over a wide range. Classroom building costs in SSA are often estimated at about of $10,000 per 58 In SSA lower secondary is often taught by trained secondary school graduates; most countries prefer that upper secondary teachers have completed some higher education or are degree holders. Concurrent B.Eds co exist with Post graduate certificate type courses.


58

classroom. This figure has been used to generate the cost associated with additional capacity needed to reach GER110, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% by 2015 at pupil per class ratios of 40:1, 35:1 and 25:1 for primary, lower and upper secondary. The total costs have to be seen over that period. The distribution of costs would depend on the rate of growth in enrolments. A second calculation uses a figure of 20 times GNP per capita for classroom building costs at primary which equates to $10,000 in countries with GNP per capita of $500. This produces a different pattern of costs between countries on the assumption that actual costs are related to GNP per capita59. The result is that at $10,000 per classroom about $39.2 billion would be needed, of which $18.9 billion would be for secondary expansion60. If 20, 30 and 40 times GNP per capita is used for primary, lower and upper secondary as the cost of a classroom then the amounts are $18.5 with $14.8 billion for secondary alone61 (Table 19). These costs are projected over the period 2002-2015 and thus would amount to nearly $3 billion a year, or more if incurred over a shorter period. If higher enrolment rate targets are chosen then $20.4, $20.3 and $17.8 billion would be needed for primary, lower and upper secondary respectively totalling $58.5 billion by 2015, or at least $4 billion per year using $10,000 per classroom (Table 20). Building costs might be reduced with community support and competitive procurement. However these cost estimates do not take into account the additional costs of lowering current pupil per classroom ratios where these are high, or of rehabilitation and maintenance of sub-standard facilities. Other development costs are impossible to estimate without detailed planning of separate systems. If provision of learning materials is regarded as a development expenditure then costs could be substantial62. In most SSA countries the existing stock of books and other learning materials is unknown. Nor it it possible to judge the relevance of this stock to new curricula that may be introduced. Costs per book are generally in the range of $2-$10 depending on subject and level. Pupil per book per subject ratios of less than 5:1 are generally regarded as too low for efficient learning. Since precise estimates are not possible a proxy estimate can be made. In 2001/2 about 25 million pupils were enrolled in secondary in SSA. By 2015 this number would rise to nearly 50 million if GER2 60% and GER2U 30% were achieved. If four books were provided at an average cost of $5, books lasted 5 years, and the book per pupil ratio was 2:1, then the cost would be at least $1.1 billion. At primary level numbers are projected to rise from about 90 million to 130 million. At $10 for a set of textbooks per pupil the total needed would be about $1.7 billion annually. These are very rough estimates but give some indication of orders of magnitude. The amounts needed could easily be doubled with higher enrolments and shorter book life. Thus other development costs are of the order of $3 billion per year.

59 In reality secondary school classrooms may be more expensive than primary, especially if they have specialised facilities. The cost per classroom will be higher where new schools have to be constructed than where classes are added to existing schools. The projections are therefore fairly speculative. 60 For countries listed in the Tables. 61 For the countries in this data set which excludes several SSA countries for which data is incomplete or unreliable. 62 In may systems in SSA this is de facto the case. In the absence of school or district level budgets or effective national procurement learning materials e.g. textbooks are provided sporadically in relation to projects or purchased in the private market place by pupils.


59

Table 19 Development Costs 2002-2015 GER1=100, GER2L=60, GER2U=30 GER1=110; GER2L=60%; GER2U = 30%

Unit Cost=$10,000

Unit Cost = $15,000

Unit Cost = $20,000

Unit Cost = 20x GNP/Cap


Unit Cost = 40 x GNP/Cap

Country Primary L.Secondary U Secondary Primary L Secondary U Secondary Primary L Secondary U Secondary

Demand for Classrooms



Cost of Classrooms

Total Cost of Classrooms Total

2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

$ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000

Angola 35,401 23,156 19,517 354,011 347,337 390,349 1,091,696 354,011 347,337 390,349 1,091,696

Benin 19,198 8,294 4,919 191,978 124,410 98,386 414,774 145,903 94,551 74,773 315,228

Botswana 1,584 -530 -1,012 15,837 -7,955 -20,243 -12,361 98,191 -49,321 -125,510 -76,640

Burkina Faso 75,222 28,161 14,018 752,224 422,413 280,351 1,454,988 330,979 185,862 123,354 640,195

Burundi 20,891 11,314 5,544 208,908 169,704 110,885 489,496 41,782 33,941 22,177 97,899

Cameroon 29,264 18,896 8,889 292,643 283,441 177,790 753,873 339,465 328,791 206,236 874,493

Chad 40,980 18,701 8,338 409,797 280,515 166,750 857,062 163,919 112,206 66,700 342,825

Comoros 2,811 1,069 394 28,109 16,031 7,877 52,018 21,363 12,184 5,987 39,534

Congo 20,762 5,534 2,954 207,621 83,009 59,079 349,709 265,755 106,252 75,620 447,627

Côte d’Ivoire 29,100 15,466 9,063 290,995 231,992 181,263 704,250 366,654 292,309 228,392 887,355

D Rep. of the Congo

232,120 63,258 82,920 2,321,204 948,866 1,658,404 4,928,475 371,393 151,819 265,345 788,556

Equatorial Guinea 730 626 393 7,299 9,396 7,866 24,561 10,219 13,154 11,012 34,385

Eritrea 18,761 3,239 4,219 187,607 48,590 84,372 320,569 60,034 15,549 26,999 102,582

Ethiopia 312,301 53,741 88,463 3,123,013 806,120 1,769,260 5,698,393 624,603 161,224 353,852 1,139,679

Gambia 4,519 1,059 828 45,188 15,878 16,550 77,617 28,921 10,162 10,592 49,675

Ghana 40,284 4,512 7,817 402,841 67,686 156,342 626,869 233,648 39,258 90,678 363,584

Guinea 32,498 12,114 5,609 324,984 181,708 112,180 618,873 266,487 149,001 91,988 507,476


60

Kenya 54,132 10,859 4,447 541,322 162,878 88,948 793,148 378,925 114,015 62,264 555,204

Lesotho -881 501 203 -8,812 7,519 4,060 2,767 -9,340 7,970 4,303 2,933

Liberia 20,887 5,213 2,573 208,866 78,189 51,452 338,508 58,483 21,893 14,407 94,782

Madagascar 52,326 33,890 16,407 523,255 508,349 328,146 1,359,750 272,093 264,342 170,636 707,070

Malawi 63,341 13,122 7,365 633,414 196,826 147,299 977,538 202,692 62,984 47,136 312,812

Mali 70,331 24,642 11,279 703,314 369,635 225,575 1,298,524 323,524 170,032 103,765 597,321

Mozambique 70,591 10,349 16,319 705,914 155,242 326,384 1,187,539 296,484 65,202 137,081 498,767

Namibia 3,812 -226 186 38,119 -3,385 3,725 38,459 149,425 -13,271 14,603 150,758

Niger 80,240 28,833 13,857 802,400 432,491 277,143 1,512,035 288,864 155,697 99,772 544,332

Nigeria 377,742 114,832 30,281 3,777,417 1,722,484 605,610 6,105,511 2,190,902 999,041 351,254 3,541,197

Rwanda 34,788 14,626 8,033 347,880 219,395 160,661 727,936 153,067 96,534 70,691 320,292

Sao Tome and Principe

86 141 60 865 2,117 1,192 4,174 484 1,186 667 2,337

Senegal 27,416 13,506 7,389 274,161 202,597 147,787 624,544 268,677 198,545 144,831 612,053

Swaziland 1,097 266 35 10,967 3,987 694 15,649 28,514 10,367 1,805 40,686

Togo 6,733 3,096 3,397 67,334 46,437 67,934 181,706 36,361 25,076 36,685 98,121

Uganda 71,514 51,706 17,706 715,136 775,585 354,116 1,844,837 371,871 403,304 184,140 959,315

United Rep of Tanzania

152,289 71,378 25,800 1,522,889 1,070,673 515,992 3,109,553 822,360 578,163 278,636 1,679,159

Zambia 41,138 6,450 7,078 411,378 96,757 141,557 649,692 263,282 61,925 90,596 415,803

Total 2,044,008 671,794 435,287 20,437,678 10,057,324 8,686,687 39,181,689 9,803,617 5,079,217 3,587,909 18,470,743


61

Table 20 Development Costs 2002-2015 GER1=100, GER2L=100, GER2U=50 GER1=110; GER2L=100%; GER2U = 50% Unit

Cost=$10,000 Unit Cost = $15,000

Unit Cost = $20,000 Unit Cost = 20x GNP/Cap


Unit Cost = 40 x GNP/Cap

Country Primary L Secondary U Secondary Primary L Secondary U Secondary

Primary L Secondary U Secondary




Cost of Classrooms

Total Cost of Classrooms Total

2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

$ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000 $ '000

Angola 35,401 42,230 35,329 354,011 633,457 706,584 1,694,051 354,011 633,457 706,584 1,694,051

Benin 19,198 18,606 9,979 191,978 279,085 199,583 670,646 145,903 212,104 151,683 509,691

Botswana 1,584 581 139 15,837 8,721 2,771 27,330 98,191 54,073 17,181 169,444

Burkina Faso

75,222 50,542 24,463 752,224 758,136 489,258 1,999,618 330,979 333,580 215,274 879,832

Burundi 20,891 20,753 10,413 208,908 311,291 208,261 728,460 41,782 62,258 41,652 145,692

Cameroon 29,264 40,824 20,061 292,643 612,353 401,221 1,306,217 339,465 710,330 465,416 1,515,211

Chad 40,980 33,298 15,179 409,797 499,469 303,584 1,212,850 163,919 199,787 121,434 485,140

Comoros 2,811 2,236 947 28,109 33,543 18,932 80,585 21,363 25,493 14,389 61,245

Congo 20,762 12,008 5,975 207,621 180,124 119,507 507,252 265,755 230,558 152,969 649,282

Côte d’Ivoire 29,100 36,420 19,939 290,995 546,294 398,774 1,236,064 366,654 688,331 502,456 1,557,440

D Rep. of the Congo

232,120 105,430 138,200 2,321,204 1,581,444 2,764,007 6,666,655 371,393 253,031 442,241 1,066,665

Equatorial Guinea

730 1,389 756 7,299 20,829 15,112 43,240 10,219 29,160 21,157 60,535

Eritrea 18,761 6,930 8,845 187,607 103,951 176,893 468,451 60,034 33,264 56,606 149,904

Ethiopia 312,301 109,463 161,268 3,123,013 1,641,941 3,225,361 7,990,315 624,603 328,388 645,072 1,598,063

Gambia 4,519 2,581 1,811 45,188 38,715 36,224 120,128 28,921 24,778 23,184 76,882

Ghana 40,284 24,523 21,504 402,841 367,847 430,086 1,200,774 233,648 213,352 249,450 696,449

Guinea 32,498 24,683 11,717 324,984 370,252 234,347 929,583 266,487 303,607 192,164 762,258


62

Kenya 54,132 30,601 18,234 541,322 459,008 364,675 1,365,005 378,925 321,305 255,273 955,504

Lesotho -881 2,039 932 -8,812 30,583 18,636 40,407 -9,340 32,418 19,754 42,831

Liberia 20,887 10,128 5,467 208,866 151,926 109,334 470,126 58,483 42,539 30,613 131,635

Madagascar 52,326 63,371 30,222 523,255 950,564 604,441 2,078,260 272,093 494,294 314,309 1,080,695

Malawi 63,341 23,803 14,259 633,414 357,044 285,174 1,275,632 202,692 114,254 91,256 408,202

Mali 70,331 46,940 21,758 703,314 704,095 435,165 1,842,574 323,524 323,884 200,176 847,584

Mozambique 70,591 23,860 30,108 705,914 357,904 602,163 1,665,980 296,484 150,320 252,908 699,712

Namibia 3,812 2,002 1,187 38,119 30,024 23,745 91,887 149,425 117,692 93,081 360,198

Niger 80,240 50,045 23,545 802,400 750,669 470,892 2,023,960 288,864 270,241 169,521 728,626

Nigeria 377,742 261,112 126,036 3,777,417 3,916,677 2,520,715 10,214,809 2,190,902 2,271,673 1,462,015 5,924,589

Rwanda 34,788 25,951 14,951 347,880 389,271 299,021 1,036,172 153,067 171,279 131,569 455,916

Sao Tome and Principe

86 452 138 865 6,777 2,752 10,394 484 3,795 1,541 5,821

Senegal 27,416 27,398 14,380 274,161 410,967 287,604 972,731 268,677 402,747 281,852 953,277

Swaziland 1,097 1,377 547 10,967 20,651 10,933 42,550 28,514 53,692 28,425 110,631

Togo 6,733 10,649 7,057 67,334 159,742 141,131 368,207 36,361 86,261 76,211 198,832

Uganda 71,514 98,017 32,307 715,136 1,470,249 646,148 2,831,534 371,871 764,529 335,997 1,472,397

United Rep of Tanzania

152,289 125,993 43,933 1,522,889 1,889,901 878,659 4,291,448 822,360 1,020,547 474,476 2,317,382

Zambia 41,138 15,091 15,687 411,378 226,371 313,737 951,486 263,282 144,877 200,792 608,951

Total 2,044,008 1,351,325 887,271 20,440,079 20,269,874 17,745,427 58,455,381 9,822,008 11,123,913 8,440,692 29,386,613


63

A Framework of Policy Options for Expanded Secondary at Affordable Costs

The analysis of the cost constraints on secondary expansion leads to the following conclusions. First, SSA countries have very different profiles of current enrolments and likely enrolment growth. No single strategy will be appropriate across SSA. Second, countries that fall into Groups 2,3,4 and 5 all have low secondary enrolment rates and some have low primary enrolment rates. Policy has to clearly prioritise investment at different levels to reflect national development strategies to achieve universal primary and expanded secondary enrolments. Third, most SSA countries will not be able to afford substantially expanded secondary participation without a combination of increased effort in terms of budget allocation to education and to secondary, and cost saving reforms that reduce cost per pupil and increase efficiency. The basic financial parameters which should shape reform are the level of current allocation to secondary, the cost per pupil, and the current and desired levels of secondary enrolment over the next ten years63. Figure 34 indicates how these parameters can be profiled. This framework can be applied to specific country cases where cost data is available. Without detailed and up to date sub-sectoral data on costs it is not possible to locate particular systems systems within the framework. However it can be applied on a case by case basis to guide policy development and suggest where key problems lie64. It should be noted that:

• Public expenditure on secondary education as a proportion of GNP has to be considered along with the overall allocation to education and the balance between different levels of education (primary, secondary, higher etc) and administration. It should also take into account secondary level allocations that may be channelled through training budgets of other ministries in addition to the Ministry of Education.

• Whether GER2 is regarded as low or not depends partly on its absolute value,

and partly on labour market signals and macroeconomic development strategy. It also depends on what judgements are made about the relative importance of increasing GER1, the primary enrolment rate. If this is already high, the case for increasing GER2 as a priority may be greater than where GER1 is low. If increased resources for secondary schooling were to draw investment away from primary schooling to the extent that participation diminished it is unlikely to be the best option.

63 The proportion of children in the secondary age range is also important. However this is relatively stable over time and only become a policy variable if the length of secondary cycles is changed. 64 Differences in reporting financial data between countries make it very difficult to compile a classification of countries across SSA because of the absence of reliable data on cost per pupil and the wide variations in these costs between school types at secondary level within countries.


64

Figure 34 Framework of Policy Options on Secondary Participation

Public Exp.

Secondary as % GNP (x)

Public Unit Costs as %

GNP/Cap(c)

GER2 Implied Commitment to Secondary Schooling

Possible Policy Implications

Low Low Low No priority given to secondary

Increase % budget to secondary, allow unit costs to increase if quality is low and low unit costs the cause

Low High Very Low Low priority for mass access; constrained by high costs

Reduce public unit costs and increase budget for secondary

High High Low Low priority for mass access; constrained by high costs

Reduce public unit costs to increase access

Low Low Mid/High Poor quality and/or largely privately financed

Improve quality if low; consider access and equity implications of private funding if prevalent

High Low Mid/High High priority given to access to secondary

Quality may need improvement and unit costs may need enhancing

Ranges: High > 1.5% Low < 1.5%

Ranges High > 30% Low <30%

Ranges VLow<20% Low20-40%

MidHigh>40%

• The relationship between expenditure and enrolment rates will be modified if there are significant amounts of private schooling or private contributions to public institutions. Practice varies so widely that this cannot be included in this framework explicitly.

• Unit costs depend mainly on teacher’s salaries65 and how teachers are

deployed. Differences between countries will partly depend on salaries of comparable groups in the rest of the economy, and on the cost of living for such groups. They will also depend on what are thought to be appropriate and necessary levels for the pupil teacher ratio at secondary and on patterns of school organisation (curricula constraints may lead to large numbers of teachers in small schools to cover all subjects, boarding costs may be substantial etc.).

This framework cannot help make judgements about school quality and of the value for money currently delivered by secondary schooling. These judgements must feature in any realistic policy analysis since expanding enrolments or allocating more resources to already inefficient or ineffective school systems is clearly not desirable. Thus where class teacher ratios are unacceptably high, they should be encouraged to fall; and where indicators of achievement for particular types of school are

65 Except where boarding is prevalent.


65

unsatisfactory they should not be expanded until the causes are understood and addressed.

Data and Evidenced-Based Policy

Many aspects of secondary schooling remain informed by inadequate data and lack a robust knowledge base. Improving this situation is a precursor to more evidence based policy. Important analytic needs are for:

• Basic data on patterns of participation in public and non-government institutions disaggregated by household income, gender, residence, and other disadvantaged groups. This should include age and grade specific enrolment rates and given insight into differential drop out, repetition and transition rates at different levels and their causes

• Gender analysis of enrolments, achievement, and social development of

learners designed to locate systemic reforms, as well as special programmes, that might improve equity.

• Assessment of the redistributional effects of bursary schemes, quotas and other

mechanisms to increase equitable access to secondary schooling

• Achievement data, based wherever possible on criterion referenced assessments of what is learned, by which learners, at which level, with which consequences for selection

• Analysis of secondary curricula to assess relevance, teachability, antecedent

assumptions about learners, timetable demand, level of specialisation, prioritisation of core and elective subjects, and desired learning outcomes to assess development needs

• Exploration of the feasibility of more modularised curricula that can mitigate

the effects of irregular attendance and seasonality, explore multigrade approaches to secondary level learning and teaching that recognise wide age ranges and capabilities with the same grade group, and which might offer more effective curriculum implementation in small schools

• Reviews of learning material (e.g. textbooks) availability in quantity and

quality related to main subject areas

• Reviews of teacher training supply and demand and methods to establish whether these represent value for money and are capable of meeting expanded demand at affordable costs

• Assessment of secondary teachers’ career trajectories to establish how many

teach for how long, and provide insight into attrition rates arising from different causes with a view to increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of training


66

• Investigation of constructive and destructive interactions between public and

non-government providers where these co-exist

• Analysis of secondary teachers’ workloads and working practices designed to identify areas where internal efficiency gains may be possible

• Tracer studies of secondary graduates to determine absorption rates into

different types of employment and livelihoods and identify signals of over and under supply, and curricula areas which need reform

• Evaluation of the learning gains and costs associated with uses of information

and communications technology in replicable learning environments


67

Chapter 5. Options for Affordable Expansion of Secondary Schooling The policy framework and projections establish the magnitude of resources that need to be allocated to education systems at different levels to achieve particular levels of enrolment at primary and secondary school. They give some general indication of the possible shortfalls in domestic resources66. This creates one boundary around how fast participation can grow. What else is possible will be largely determined by the extent to which costs per pupil can be reduced relative to GNP, the degree to which efficiency gains can be realised, and the scope there may be for cost sharing of different kinds (discussed further in Lewin and Caillods 200167). The policy options are discussed below under a series of headings. national resource allocations, structural options, school financing, improving the flow of pupils, teacher deployment, school management, reform of curricula and pedagogy, teacher education. facilities and buildings, cost recovery, and non government service provision. National Resources First the national allocation of resources to secondary education has to be considered in relation to the level of resources available. This is a function of the size of the government budget, the proportions allocated to education in general, and to secondary in particular. Macro economic growth, debt relief, and improved revenue collection could all increase the resources for education. GNP growth averaged about 3% in SSA in 2002 but was unevenly distributed between countries68. Debt relief is currently available to the most indebted countries and is likely to be extended to others with expectations of increased investment in education. Improved revenue collection could boost public resources where it is low and less than 15% of GDP. Changes in these parameters cannot be projected across SSA but can be anticipated in country level planning. Budget allocations to education should increase from current levels of about 3.9% of GNP across SSA, especially where there is a benefit from debt relief. Movement towards 5% of GNP would approach levels necessary to universalise primary and greatly enhance secondary participation if accompanied by cost saving reforms. Increased resources will also become available if education receives a greater share of the public budget. Where less than 15% of public expenditure is on education there is likely to be a case to increase the allocation. The scope for increases in the share allocated to secondary depends on the level of priority it receives. What is delivered depends on the costs per pupil and the length of 66 The projections provide a general indication based on data from 2001/2. Development since then in government revenue, external assistance, debt relief and economic growth will affect the size of the gaps. 67 See also World Bank 2005:132 et seq for further elaboration of the options. 68 Average population growth was about 2% giving a 1% real increase in on average to GNP per capita and ceteris paribus a similar benefit to public expenditure.


68

secondary cycles. The projections indicate that GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% are unlikely to be achieved unless more than 2.5% of GNP is allocated to secondary education. There may be some scope to increase budgetary priority for secondary in countries where tertiary investment appears disproportionate69, and where allocations to primary exceed ceilings of absorptive capacity70. Policy decisions have to be made on allocation in the light of the available resources and the political and developmental priorities established by national governments. Figure 35 Options Related to National Resources Topic Option Strategies Impact on Affordable

Expansion Allocation of National Resources


Increase share of education towards 5% of GNP

Substantial where allocation is low


Increase share of public expenditure towards 20%



Depending on country increase share for secondary towards 20%


Increase external contributions to financing

Agree with development partners secondary sector development plans

Substantial

Structural Options

Expanded secondary participation in SSA in low enrolment countries builds on inherited structures developed in the context of the past rather than the future. Mass participation at affordable costs may require changes in school system structure to meet new needs. There is an emerging consensus that lower secondary schooling should develop to be part of a full basic education cycle lasting about nine years enrolling those from about 6 to 15 years old. Upper secondary in much of SSA will remain selective for the foreseeable future. It will need to address strategic human resource development needs in relation to the labour force, and for entry to higher education and training. The structure of school systems has implications for resources (some patterns are more expensive than others), and for access and participation (some patterns may be better suited to high and low population density, remote areas, girls and other disadvantaged children etc.). Transition points between cycles are important since they are often associated with high rates of repetition in final grades before selection examinations, and high drop out between cycles where attendance at a different, and often more distant, school is necessary. 69 Most obviously where higher education accounts for more than secondary but enrols many fewer students and where higher education is more heavily subsidised than secondary. 70 This may be the case where more than 60% is allocated to primary, especially if bottlenecks appear in teacher supply and transition rates are falling rapidly.


69

Six years of primary schooling has been adopted by more than 60% of countries in SSA (see Figure 5). This should result in primary school graduation between 12 and 13 years old71. Nearly 50% of SSA countries have lower secondary cycles of four years and 30% of three years. Two year cycles, even if coupled with long primary systems are much less common and, if located in separate institutions, likely to be relatively expensive and less effective in achieving learning outcomes strongly differentiated from those achieved by primary schools. Over 60% of upper secondary systems last three years. Longer systems are usually expensive and very selective. Two year specialised upper secondary is found in about 30% of SSA countries and is usually directed towards entry into higher education and training. Structural changes are often easier to imagine than to implement. Structures are historically embedded, linked to familiar curriculum cycles and the existing stock of learning materials, and to formal qualifications recognised by labour markets. They are reflected in physical infrastructure (e.g. primary and secondary school buildings) and levels of teacher qualification, remuneration, and deployment. If structures are changed then there are transaction costs (new curricula, retraining and redeployment of existing teachers, classroom and school building). This means that structural change should only be considered where benefits are substantial over a realistic time period. The length of primary and secondary school cycles should be partly a pedagogic decision that depends on judgements as to how best to organise the curriculum in relation to learners cognitive and affective development. Five, ten and fifteen year olds have different psycho-social and cultural characteristics and learning needs that should shape the conditions under which they learn (smaller or larger classes, specialist teachers, mixed age and mixed sex teaching groups etc.). These judgements have to be made within national educational contexts. The cost benefits of structural changes can only be assessed on a system by system basis. They depend on starting points and on detailed specification of both the nature of the changes, and the extent and rate of implementation. Specific options include: Shortening the length of the education cycle. In countries where the total education system lasts for thirteen years it may be possible to reduce the total length to twelve years. Whether it is the primary or secondary cycle that is shortened depends on the existing configuration. This could save about 8% of costs, or more if the shortening was at the upper secondary level which is more expensive. Alternatively participation could increase by 8% or more at the same costs. Extending primary schools upwards to cover lower secondary grades. If lower secondary curricula can be provided at unit costs closer to those of primary schooling then significant increases in enrolment could take place with modest additional expenditure. This might be the case if primary school were expanded to reach up to grade nine. However, this may result in schools with wide age ranges, it may discourage the adoption of different pedagogy for young children and adolescent learners, and could result in inequities where extended primary schools exist alongside conventional separate and more specialised secondary schools. If three year

71 This remands below the legal age of entry to the labour market in many countries.


70

lower secondary were combined with six year primary on the same school site fixed costs per pupil should fall. Recurrent costs would fall by amounts determined by gains in efficiency related to higher teacher utilisation72. Limit enrolments in high cost technical and vocational schools. Costs in technical and vocational schools can be five or more times those in secondary. Each place provided could finance places for those currently excluded from any secondary schooling. It should be possible to teach many generic technical and vocational skills and competencies in general secondary schools at costs similar to those of academic subjects. Where there are labour market indications that high cost technical and vocational training is strategically important cost effective institutions should be supported. Increase average school size. Small schools in SSA are often associated with low PTRs and low levels of achievement. They may be necessary where there is low population density. Multi-grade methods can be used to bring costs per pupil closer to average (Lewin 2006c, Institute of Education 2005, World Bank Institute 2004). This option is rarely considered at secondary level but is appropriate. Secondary schools with enrolments much below 500 are often expensive and find it difficult to deliver a full curriculum. Economies of scale are available up to enrolments of 1,000 but become marginal for much larger schools. Clear prioritisation of growth in lower secondary enrolment rates before expanding upper secondary. More access to some secondary schooling will be provided where lower secondary is expanded towards universal levels before upper secondary grows. This implies that upper secondary should remain selective, and that selection should be both efficient and equitable. Upper secondary schools with specialisation linked to labour force and higher education needs and drawing on wide catchment areas, may be a more attractive development strategy than pro-rata expansion of existing schools. Introduce/Extend double shifting. Where population density is high and lack of classroom space a constraint, double shifting in one form or another (Bray 1995) can increase capacity. It may not save on recurrent costs unless teachers’ workloads are increased. Some countries have used double shifting to allow periods of rapid expansion in secondary school access (e.g. Malaysia) until construction programmes have caught up with demand for places. Reduce boarding and/or increase levels of boarding cost recovery. As lower secondary schooling expands, the case for subsidised boarding weakens. Schools can be located within daily travel distance for the majority of school age children. Elective boarding is common in SSA but can double or triple the cost per pupil and thus result in much lower enrolment rates than would otherwise be the case. Subsidies should be progressively withdrawn in favour of higher participation

72 Most clearly where combinations of this kind increase school size and allow full timetabling of all teachers with adequate class sizes.


71

Figure 36 Structural Options to Reduce Unit Costs of Secondary Schools Topic Option Strategy Impact on Affordable

Expansion Structure of Cycles

Shorten the length of the education cycle

Long education systems have 13 years in total short systems 11 years. There are different patterns or organisation at secondary level – e.g. 3+3 years , 3+2+2, 4+2. Costs vary with the length of the secondary cycles, the degree of specialisation and the physical location of lower and upper secondary schools. If changes in length and location are contemplated for cost reasons, savings may have to be substantial to justify the transaction costs. Consider approaching SSA norms of 6:3:3 or 6:4:2 systems

Reduction in total length of the education system by a year would save 8% or more on costs. Changes in length of lower relative to upper secondary could save similar amounts depending on enrolment patterns

. Extend primary schools to cover lower secondary grades.

If primary schools were extended up to grade 9 fixed costs related to buildings etc. should be reduced. Some recurrent costs may be saved as a result of more efficient teacher deployment. Primary/secondary drop out should fall because of co-location.

Significant if operating costs are more like primary than lower secondary schools

Limit enrolments in high cost technical and vocational secondary schools.

Technical and vocational schools may have unit costs five to ten times greater than those of general secondary schools. Preferable to locate generic technical and vocational skill development in schools and teach at typical school costs wherever possible. Locate specific job related training close to or in workplaces. Identify and support essential upper secondary specialised institutions

TVE enrolments are usually small but high cost so savings limited. Market signals should indicate if TVE at lower and upper secondary represents value for money.

School size Increase average school size, especially at secondary level

Where average secondary school size falls below 500 diseconomies of scale can be considerable unless a restricted curriculum is offered and/or multi-grade techniques are used. School mapping can help locate schools that will be enrolled with more than 500 pupils.

Per pupil costs in larger schools may be half those in small schools as a result of higher PTRs and more efficient use of buildings etc

Phased expansion of lower secondary before upper secondary

Clear prioritisation of growth in lower secondary enrolment rates before expanding upper secondary could increase school size and provide greater access than similar rates of expansion at lower and upper secondary. Lower secondary is generally below the official age of employment

Greater effectiveness in extending participation to some secondary schooling to a greater proportion of the population

Double shift schools

Double shifting schools where population density is high can increase capacity at marginal costs.

Substantial cost saving on development budget; cost saving on recurrent if teacher utilisation increased

Boarding Reduce subsidised non- essential boarding

Boarding costs can often exceed teaching costs. Much boarding is elective, some is essential. As access increases boarding should be reduced and sustained only where population density/ transport/ special needs justify costs. Otherwise switch to day schools and progressively withdraw boarding subsidies with attention to possible different impact on participation by girls and boys

Substantial cost savings allowing public costs per pupil to halve. Cost recovery should be used for those who elect to board, subsidy retained for essential boarding


72

School Financing

Reforms are needed that contain costs, increase internal efficiency, and promote effectiveness. The two largest cost elements in most secondary school systems in SSA are boarding and teacher’s salaries. Boarding should be reduced as discussed above. Other important elements in costs include non-teaching salaries, and non-salary operating costs. Reforms may be needed in all these areas depending on analysis of current levels. Teacher’s salaries. Teachers’ remuneration determines half or more of costs per pupil in most non-boarding secondary school systems. The amount of learning this supports depends on pupil teacher ratios and work loads (discussed below). The level of teacher’s salaries is a central question for affordable expansion. This analysis indicates that salary levels much above 3.5, 4.5 and 6 times GNP per capita for primary, lower and upper secondary teachers respectively, will undermine the financial viability of mass secondary schooling. The challenge of achieving these levels of remuneration is country specific. High enrolment countries already approach these ratios. Low enrolment countries often exceed them by a significant margin. Salaries and other benefits have to be sufficient to motivate those already teaching and attract new entrants. This depends on wage rates in national and cross-national labour markets. Judgements have to be made about how to progress towards the levels of remuneration necessary for mass enrolment in countries where current salaries are substantially higher. Non Teaching Salary Costs. This refers to the cost of non teaching staff including administrators, clerical assistance, hostel wardens, maintenance staff, security et al. Where the ratio of non teaching staff to teaching staff is high (say more than 1.5:1) economies are needed if expansion is to be financially viable. As boarding reduces with an increase in the proportion of day schools, non-teaching salary budgets should fall substantially. Non-Salary Costs. These costs are associated with building repairs, utility bills, equipment, learning material and sometimes with transport, food, and accommodation. They can be substantial and comparable to salary costs in residential boarding schools. It is desirable that these costs are managed efficiently in ways consistent with school effectiveness where these costs are a large share of total expenditure. Learning materials, which are widely under funded (see below), may be one area of non-salary costs that should not be reduced. Systems of school financing are so diverse across SSA that generalisation is difficult. There are many options that could improve the flow of resources to schools and increase the effectiveness with which they are utilised. These include:

• Capitation grants for non-salary expenditure devolved into school

budgets with appropriate accountability to ensure more regular and predictable flows of resources to maintain infrastructure and enhance learning


73

• Formula based funding allocations which link staffing and other costs

to enrolments – this should have both equity and efficiency benefits especially if coupled with pupil, teacher and school indicators of need.

• School quality improvement grants earmarked for specific purposes to

ensure increased resource allocation on inputs directly related to pupil achievement and learning experience

• Matching grant schemes that allocate more to schools with least ability

to raise funds and which have the most difficult working environments

• School governance systems that promote accountability and value for money and provide incentives to manage resources more efficiently

Figure 37 Options on School Financing Topic Option Strategy Impact on

Affordable Expansion

School Financing

Revisit teacher salaries, scales and ratios

Review salary structures in relation to local labour markets and productivity. Move towards 3.5,4.5 and 6 times GNP per capita for primary, lower and upper secondary. Review non salary benefits to provide incentives in difficult areas

Essential for mass enrolment at secondary level; couple salary awards to increases in productivity where this is low.


Some SSA secondary school systems spend 40% of their salary budget on non-teaching staff. Where this is true re-deploy qualified staff back into the classroom. Establish norms for secondary boarding and days schools depending on circumstances – 15% and 10% respectively?

Substantial providing reductions do not undermine learning quality

Reduce non- salary costs

Review non-salary costs which can be as much of half of total costs. Protect learning material expenditure. Review flat rate subsidies for food, books etc. in favour of needs-based subsidies. Establish norms for secondary boarding and days schools depending on circumstances – 15% and 10% respectively?

Substantial providing reductions do not undermine learning quality

Formula based school funding73

Develop effective capitation grant systems for non-salary expenditure. Develop norm based funding systems (related to pupil, teacher and school characteristics) that are designed to increase efficiency, even out public costs per pupil between schools, and promote pro-poor additional subsidies to improve access.

Significant for improving equity and effectiveness in resource allocation

School improvement grant systems

Develop quality improvement grant systems Significant if improve learning quality

73 See World Bank 2005:153 for an extensive discussion of formula funding.


74

Improving the Flow of Pupils

Some SSA secondary school systems have repetition rates above 20% (Figure 8). Many have completion rates that suggest that less than half who start secondary schooling qualify at the next level. Repetition increases the number of years of schooling that have to be provided for one successful graduate. So also does drop out. Reduce repetition. Repetition is a curriculum and pedagogic issue. Rates vary widely between countries in ways that suggest that they are determined by policy and expectations rather than being a reflection of the capabilities of school pupils. Repetition needs analysis to establish its causes which differ from system to system74, locate key curriculum and pedagogic influences, and develop strategies for its reduction. Where it is high it will remain a major obstacle to expanded access. Reduce drop out and increase attendance. Drop out is widely associated with the direct and indirect costs of secondary schooling. Expanded secondary enrolment will provide access to poorer and poorer households. Thus the direct costs to households must be reduced if exclusion related to household income is not to increase. Pro-poor bursaries, fee waivers, and other subsidies (transport, books, food etc) may be needed. A critical issue is whether to make lower secondary school free. Where fees are currently charged more access to lower secondary will be affordable if fees are retained and selectively waived for poor households, than if all fees are waived. Drop out and push out are also related to under achievement and have other causes located in the curriculum and pedagogy75. Attendance rates can be low representing a kind of silent drop out76. Expanded secondary enrolment without high rates of attendance (and low teacher absenteeism) would be is counterproductive. Reducing drop out would increase aggregate costs since more pupils would remain enrolled, but it would lower costs per successful graduate. Increased costs may be compensated for by lower repetition which reduces the number of places needed for a given enrolment rate. Reform selection and promotion procedures at transition points and within schools. Selection examinations can contribute to high rates of repetition especially at the end of primary, and in the last years of lower and upper secondary where pupils retake to improve performance. Much selection may be testing schools and teachers more than pupils (school effects will be strong where school quality varies widely). This may result in inefficiencies in selection, leading to failure at higher levels. School based assessment practices that result in repetition have financial consequences if they result in substantial inflation of enrolments by repeaters. Poor quality selection examinations may also distort the curriculum and reduce relevance leading to drop out.

74 E.g. Some repetition is a result of school based decisions on criteria which often lack consistency between schools. Other forms of repetition arise from retaking public examinations to improve performance. Reductions in different types of repetition require different policy responses. 75 Under achievement can lead to push out i.e. selection out from continuing the cycle. Irrelevant curricula and poor and unattractive pedagogy can also result in low attendance and drop out. 76 Data on pupil and teacher absenteeism is not available systematically across SSA. It can exceed 25%, especially where seasonality related to agricultural cycles is important.


75

Figure 38 Options to Improve the Flow of Pupils Topic Option Strategy Impact on



Reduce repetition Repetition rates can be as high as 25% or more in some systems and at some transition points. High repetition rates are a curriculum issue as well as a teaching problem. High enrolment systems have low repetition. Incentive systems should reward higher achievement and lower repetition

Reduced costs as flow improves; substantial impact where repetition is greater than 10%

Reduce drop out Establish reasons for drop out and act accordingly. Affordability is a central problem for expanded access to secondary schooling. Fee waivers and other subsidies are likely to be needed to sustain enrolment. Means related subsidies should be favoured over flat rate subsidies for all. Seek community support to reduce drop out.

Increased costs but increased completion rates

Pro-poor bursaries and scholarships

Direct costs to households must fall if mass access is to be achieved. Fee waivers and bursary schemes are preferable to fee free education. Mechanisms are needed to discourage elite capture e.g. location of fee waivers and bursaries in low cost schools, quotas linked to district/household poverty indicators.

Significant if administration costs low and genuinely pro-poor

Improve attendance Adopt measures to monitor and improve attendance to ensure learning opportunities are maximised

Substantial where attendance rates are low

Change selection and promotion methods and improve the flow of pupils through the school system.

Consider automatic promotion within primary and lower secondary cycles. Consider automatic promotion to lower secondary where enrolment rates are already high. Reduce incentives to retake to improve performance to gain access to prestigious secondary schools. Integrate measures to reduce repetition into school management systems. Limit opportunities to retake examinations at public expense especially at upper secondary.

Greater internal efficiency could increase places available without increasing costs


76

Teacher Deployment

Teacher deployment in low enrolment systems is characterised by several inefficiencies that include low and widely varying PTRs between schools, high class/teacher ratios, large variations in qualified teachers per pupil, poor timetable allocation, and ineffective support and advisory services. Reforms needed may include: Increase in the pupil teacher ratio. High enrolment systems generally have PTRs of about 35:1 at lower secondary and 25:1 at upper secondary. Where PTRs are much lower than this cost per pupil may exclude mass secondary schooling in high population growth countries in SSA. It may be desirable to increase these average PTRs if they are well below these levels. They should not exceed these target levels by a wide margin or quality and achievement will suffer. Reduce the variation in PTRs between schools. Expanded provision will be compromised if the variation in PTR between schools is not managed within ranges judged to be effective. It will also be inequitable. The variation in PTR between the highest and lowest values for different schools may exceed 3:1. Formula based teacher deployment should be used to reduce variation between schools. Unqualified teachers should be distributed across the school system rather than concentrated in particular school types and locations. Reduce teacher class ratios. Many secondary school systems in SSA have class teacher ratios above 2:1. This is a consequence of low teacher work loads and creates class sizes larger than they would be with lower ratios. Where secondary schools are staffed and organised at class teacher ratios above 2:1 there is a need to reorganise teaching groups and reshape workloads. Improve support and advisory systems. This may be seen as a cost but can be cost saving if it results in more efficient service delivery. If secondary expansion is rapid it will be especially important to provide support for new teachers who are likely to have reduced periods of initial training. Low cost in-service methods are needed (e.g. print material, managed mentorship, and local non residential and school based professional development). Other options that may be relevant include:

• Employing teaching assistants to work alongside qualified teaches and multiply the effectiveness of those who are trained

• Making more use of peer to peer learning and self study/self instructional

periods in the school timetable

• Using distance and mixed mode learning delivery systems, especially with senior pupils


77

Figure 39 Options to Improve Teacher Deployment and Utilisation Topic Option Strategy Impact on


Teacher Deployment

Increase pupil teacher ratios

Where pupil teacher ratios are low increase to a maximum determined by physical constraints and good practice. Many lower secondary systems in SSA operate at pupil teacher ratios at or below 20:1. A ratio of 35:1 would reduce unit costs by 60% and provide more access at similar salary costs.

Large where PTRs are low

Reduce class teacher ratios

Class teacher ratios at secondary in low enrolment SSA can exceed 3:1. More efficient timetabling and grouping could reduce this to less than 2:1 which is common in high enrolment systems.

Large if it results in much better utilisation of teachers’ time.

Reduce variation in pupil teacher ratios and class teacher ratios between schools

Monitor variation in school inputs and performance indicators. Use formula funding to reduce variance between schools on key indicators e.g. restrict variations in PTR to +/- 10% of the average..

Benefits in terms of equity and effectiveness

Increase the proportion of teaching assistants, temporary teachers and younger teachers

Encourage recruitment of lower cost teachers within career structures that allow development and promotion. Extend use of experienced teachers using team teaching, parallel classes, common lesson planning. Use experienced teachers to support the inexperienced. Limit number of “contract” teachers to levels that do not degrade quality.

Reductions in cost per pupil allowing more to be enrolled at similar costs


Adopt more flexible learning strategies especially for older students which include peer learning, materials based self-instruction, and conventional and information technology distance based programmes if these can be shown to cost effective in terms of learning outcomes. Gains in effectiveness resulting from , greater sharing of responsibility for learning between pupils and teachers

More efficient use of trained teachers time, reduced unit costs.

School Management

School and district management will determine the effectiveness of additional resources directed towards expanded participation. Increased enrolment in inefficient and ineffective schools will serve little purpose. Key reform issues appear to be: Create governance and employment structures that improve school/ community accountability. If secondary schools are to be effective they need culturally based governance and accountability mechanisms that can define goals collectively and


78

recognise and reward success. School managements may need more incentives to deploy resources efficiently, and improve attendance and learning outcomes. More local accountability could help ensure they do. Decentralisation is attractive where local capacity is adequate. Discourage teacher absenteeism. Conditions of service and school practices may need reform where absenteeism is a serious problem. Increase time on task. Much learning time is lost in many SSA systems. Secondary schools where average teaching loads are less than 40% of timetabled time are very inefficient. 25% or more of school days may be lost each year in poorly managed schools. The reasons need to be identified and strategies devised to maximise time on task. Figure 40 Options to Enhance School Management Topic Option Strategy Impact on


School Management

Provide incentives to increase efficiency of school management

Review national, regional, district and school level allocation and spending procedures. Develop incentives for budget holders to increase efficiency, especially in relation to teacher deployment and other major cost drivers.

Substantial if incentives are effective

Reduce teacher absenteeism

Review conditions of service; limit penalty-free casual leave; reward continuous attendance with bonuses.

Substantial where absenteeism is 10% or more

Increase time on task

Increase student learning time through better classroom management and pedagogy; reinforce through school and district supervision systems.

Substantial where more than 10% of teaching das are lost

Increase teaching hours worked

Review actual teaching workloads. Profile workloads of more and less qualified and experienced teachers. Distribute loads more evenly than is often the case where the least qualified and experienced teach most..

Substantial where teaching loads are less than 80% of timetabled school time

Reformed Curricula and Pedagogy

Expanded secondary schooling will enrol learners with different backgrounds and capabilities than those who entered highly selective systems. Mass secondary schooling creates challenges for the reform of curriculum relevance and teaching methods. Secondary school provision is widely constrained by multi-subject curricula. As many as 12 to 14 subjects are not uncommon at lower secondary level. Additional elective options may also be provided that require specialist teachers. This makes it impossible to offer a full curriculum in small secondary schools without very low


79

pupil teacher ratios77. Expanded access at lower secondary level has to recognise that national curricula should be teachable in small day schools, using multi-grade methods where appropriate, and teach at close to average PTRs. Core curricula with a limited range of subjects are appropriate for lower secondary schools. They also reduce the costs of providing learning material. More specialised curricula with a restricted range of options may be more suited to upper secondary. Possible reform options include: Core curricula focused on basic learning competencies at lower secondary level. These have to be teachable in small schools with limited resources. They have to be accessible to both learners and teachers teaching across several subject.

Upper secondary curricula designed around a limited range of more specialised themes. These should be linked to further education and training opportunities and labour market needs. More modularised learning. This is desirable to recognise the realities of irregular attendance and seasonality and assist the adoption of multigrade strategies for small schools. Much greater availability of learning materials. These need to be available at affordable costs and in sufficient quantity. They include materials for teachers as well as pupils. Two aspects of curriculum reform are critical. The first is to establish consensus around core curricula designed for mass enrolment and new educational needs and to develop these efficiently. If this is not achieved than outdated content and methods will persist, relevance will be low, and achievement levels likely to fall. The second is to support learning and teaching with adequate supplies of learning material at affordable costs. This can be assisted through a number of mechanisms that include:

• Text book revolving funds and loan schemes

• Restricted lists of approved texts procured competitively with volume discounts

• Investment in durable learning materials with a life of several years

• Effective distribution methods that provide incentives to deliver learning

materials to schools including voucher based schemes earmarked for books

77 E.g. Uganda has 14 subjects in the lower secondary curriculum and specialised teachers for some subjects. Small schools with less than 250 pupils can only cover the curriculum with low PTRs of less than 15:1.


80

Figure 41 Options for Curriculum Reform Topic Option Strategy Impact on


Reformed curricula and pedagogy

Systematic curriculum reform at lower and upper secondary level

Introduce core curricula at lower secondary, identify strategic specialisations at upper secondary. Consider more outcome based curriculum design. Link upper secondary curriculum to opportunities in the labour market and in higher education and training.

Critical to learning achievement of new cohorts of secondary pupils

Modularise learning

Consider more modularised learning that can recognise attendance patterns of teachers and pupils, and seasonality. New curricula should be useable in small schools and in multi-grade teaching.

Significant where attendance is not continuous

Learning Materials

Develop core learning materials

Reach consensus about content and form. Systematically develop new learning materials suited to new learners and low cost methods of production of restricted range of core materials

Essential if needs of expanded cohorts to be addressed

Distribution Devise effective methods of textbook and learning material distribution and distribution using the private sector where appropriate

Essential for effective learning

Share costs Invest in revolving textbook funds which allow some cost recovery at affordable levels, but share the cost across several generations of pupils.

Desirable to expand the supply of materials

Teacher Education

Existing initial teacher education systems may not be well suited to rapid expansion. If they require lengthy residential pre-service training they will not be able to provide increased outputs fast enough or at affordable levels of cost. The need to expand the cadre of teacher educators may also be constraint. In general several reform options have attractions. Decide on the minimum level of entry qualification into teaching. An all graduate cadre of secondary teachers is not feasible in most SSA. Lower secondary and some upper secondary classes are likely to be taught by those trained after completed secondary schooling, rather than by those with university degrees. Teacher education programmes need to reflect the entry qualification level of trainees and include in their curricula an appropriate mix of content upgrading and pedagogic skill development. Agree the length of training needed for new secondary teachers. The time needed to train new teachers may have to be reduced where demand is high and output needs to increase several times if enrolment and PTR targets are to be met. Specifically some SSA low enrolment countries will have to consider introducing one year Diploma level programmes for new teachers if they are to have much chance of providing enough new teachers. These could be supplemented by improved in-service support subsequently.


81

Strengthen on-the-job training for new entrants and through in-service support. This is attractive if it reduces demand for new teachers (trainees are working while learning). It also may improve effectiveness since training is being given to those doing the job. Where there are high attrition rates during training and during the first years of teaching, many are trained who then follow different careers. More use of mixed mode, distance and local professional development activity is attractive. Control costs of teacher training. Training expanded numbers of teachers at current higher education costs per trainee is not an option if demand is to be met in many low enrolment countries. College based alternatives with lower costs per trainee are more viable. Key issues for teacher training concern whether:

• The supply of qualified willing and able entrants is sufficient to match demand

• Job take up and subsequent attrition rates can be managed to low levels, especially in relation to the induction of newly qualified teachers

• The effectiveness of training can be improved whilst its costs per qualified

teacher are reduced where these are high

• The mix of graduates and non-graduates teaching in secondary schools can be managed effectively

Figure 42 Options to Reform Teacher Education Topic Option Strategy Impact on



Teacher training structures

The demand for newly trained secondary teachers will be substantial. In SSA countries with expansion rates in enrolments in excess of 10% per annum long, full time pre-career training will neither produce the volume of new teachers needed in time, nor be affordable. Options which can provide more trained teachers at lower costs have to be explored. These include more training on-the-job, mixed mode (distance/college) programmes, and shorter initial periods of training before first appointment.

Critical since expansion should not proceed if the consequence is an increase in the proportion of untrained teachers. Costs per trained teacher will need to fall.

Shorter initial training

Where attrition rates are high and working lifetimes shortening reduce investment in initial training and increase it in on-the job training

More efficient use of training delivered to those on the job


Increase teacher utilisation by ensuring teachers can generate full teaching loads, teaching across several subjects if necessary.

Significant if it increases utilisation


82

Facilities and Buildings

Expanded access to secondary will require many new classrooms and schools. These have to be constructed both in urban and rural areas to reflect population density and travel times. Low cost design and construction is essential given the number of new places needed in low enrolment countries along. Efficient and effective procurement methods are essential. Community contributions can be encouraged but have to be managed to create durable buildings. School mapping can help locate sites where new schools are needed and where the lower cost option of expanding existing schools is preferable. Estimates of development costs indicate that these are less of a problem than financing recurrent costs. Useful strategies include: Standardised classroom and school designs. This has benefits from bulk purchase of building materials and familiarity with construction amongst contractors and communities

School mapping. This allows appropriate criteria for school location to be developed and over supply and under supply of places to be minimised. Strategic construction of specialised facilities. Laboratories, workshops and other special high cost facilities may need to be allocated to specialised upper secondary schools rather than provided in every secondary school. Developing facilities that can have multiple uses. Secondary school building can be empty for months during the year if they are single function. Where appropriate dual use designs and patterns of usage should be considered (community centres, health facilities etc). Figure 43 Options for Construction Topic

Option Strategy Impact on Affordable Expansion

Construction

Develop procurement system for programme of school and classroom construction


Essential element to plans to expand access

Undertake school mapping exercises to locate new schools in areas of need

Essential for efficient and equitable investment


Essential for efficient and equitable investment

Explore multi use designs for new buildings Desirable


83

Cost Recovery

Cost recovery in secondary schools in widespread. In many Anglophone systems fee paying is common in public secondary schools, levies are collected, and donations and community contributions are solicited. The key issues are whether more cost recovery could assist in financing expanded participation, and if it can what the effects might be. Three main reasons are generally advanced for greater levels of cost recovery. First, those who benefit from secondary schooling should contribute to its costs since private rates of return are high. Second, cost recovery allows higher rates of enrolment without adding to public costs. Third, charging for services directly should improve accountability and quality. Conversely it is also argued that high direct costs exclude poor households who cannot benefit from high rates of return, that private subsidy of public services can conceal inefficiencies in public provision, and that whether accountability and quality improve depends on systems of school governance and activism in the communities they serve. The main mechanisms for cost recovery include tuition fees, other fees and levies including those for learning materials, contributions to boarding costs, community based contributions, contributions to school feeding programmes, and contributions of labour and materials to school construction. Tuition fees in public school vary from being a small proportion of total costs, to (e.g. in Malawi), to being more than half the cost per pupil (Tanzania, Uganda). The issues that surround cost recovery and fees have been extensively explored (e.g. Thobani, 1984; Woodhall, 1991; Hinchliffe, 1993; Lewin, 1995; Bray, 1996, Colclough, 1996, World Bank, 2005). Depending on how fee income is treated (especially whether it is retained at school level or centrally accumulated) it can help finance higher levels of enrolment and can support greater availability of learning materials etc. The central issues for cost recovery using tuition fees in the context of expanded access is whether fee and other payments will be affordable by poor households and what effects they will have on participation (World Bank, 2005:148). Demand will soften as expansion in capacity takes place if the direct and indirect costs of participation do not fall as enrolment reaches poorer and poorer households. What the thresholds are depend on income distribution and allocative decisions by households. Fee free lower secondary schooling may not be the best option, as noted above, since lost fee income will have to be replaced. A better alternative may be fee waivers and bursaries which are allocated to pupils from poor households with a long term goal of reducing fees for all. Other fees and levies are common. Boarding costs have been discussed above. Facilities fees (e.g. contributions to the cost of practical work, sports equipment, and special events); examination fees; and charges for books and learning materials are all made and may be invisible in national accounts. A line has to be found between encouraging private and community contributions to these activities, and ensuring that they do not constitute an unreasonable additional burden on poor households. There is


84

also a risk that increased dependence on this kind of off budget income conceals inefficiencies and under funding in the public system which should be directly addressed (Penrose, 1998:132). This is especially the case for textbooks and other learning material. Since these are fundamental to learning, basic provision should not be financed in ad hoc ways. Core funding should be sufficient to provide a basic stock of learning material. Earmarked capitation systems can help proved resources for learning material. Revolving loan schemes and bulk purchase at low cost from a restricted range of titles in core subjects are also attractive. Some schools raise significant amounts through the activities of parent teacher associations, alumni, and local fund raising activities. This can enhance facilities and learning quality. It is not likely to be a major source of income for most schools serving poor populations, but can be a prominent source of income for schools serving advantaged communities with high average incomes. School based fund raising should be facilitated (e.g. though matching grants, tax incentives, and administrative support) but its limits have to be recognised. Community secondary schools have been constructed in many areas where public provision has fallen behind demand. Often there is an expectation that such schools will become publicly financed once they have been established with teachers provided by the state. The issues here surround the quality of construction (some community built schools are not durable, may be unsafe, and may not meet basic health standards), and location (inefficiencies are likely if school location is not planned above the level of the individual community). Effective mechanisms share the costs of school building within procurement systems that specify minimum standards of construction at agreed locations within a developmental plan for schooling in an area. There are other forms of cost recovery which all have contributions to make to the affordability of secondary expansion. These include the sale of goods and services (including use of school land to produce food), school linked businesses, and rental of facilities to other groups of users. The opportunities are often location specific. These can produce useful income but, as with other forms of local revenue raising, are an insecure basis for core financing. In many SSA countries private tuition is widespread (World Bank 2005:97). Tutors may or may not be teachers from public schools depending on national regulations and their enforcement. In some countries additional classes have been institutionalised and take place in public school premises. Thus in Zambia more than one-third of all government high schools have what are known as Academic Production Units (APUs). Schools with APUs enrol additional pupils who fail to find normal places in government schools. APUs operate with afternoon sessions that typically run from 1330 to 1700 hours. The pupils study for the same national examinations as other pupils, but pay considerably higher fees. Most of the APU fee income is used to supplement the salaries of APU teachers. Although officially sanctioned and regulated the APUs are a form of private education provision which benefits from public subsidy in terms of space and facilities (See Zambia Case Study). Private tuition is strongly associated with high stakes selection examinations and demand is influenced by low selection ratios. Where it interacts destructively with normal provision (e.g. where teachers “moonlight” to gain extra income) policy is needed to balance the possible benefits (e.g. greater learning achievement, supplementary income for


85

underpaid teachers) with the risks (e.g. decreased equity, inappropriate behaviour of full time teachers) Lastly student loan schemes, higher taxes on graduates, and local educational taxes on enterprises are all possible mechanisms that could contribute to increasing the resources available. However they are likely to prove difficult and expensive to administer and may not be viable if applied to secondary schooling. Experience in higher education in SSA with loans (low rates of recovery), and with graduate taxes (unpopular and difficult to implement) is not generally encouraging. Local enterprises can only be taxed if they exist in sufficient quantity with sufficient profitability to make the exercise worthwhile. States face a kind of paradox in judging appropriate levels of cost-recovery. If these are small, and represent only a small percentage of total costs, they will only make a marginal impact on the financing of the system. Moreover, small levels of contribution may not engender the kind of accountability that would make a difference to educational standards and value for money. If the levels are high, the possible adverse effects on equity and efficiency may be substantial. Schools with a high proportion of non state income may also become semi-autonomous and the State has to consider how to react to divergence from national policy be it on admissions, staffing, curriculum, or facilities for different students. There is general consensus that equity and efficiency are vulnerable where public policy seeks to resolve problems of under-funding by passing more and more of the costs on to consumers without effective safety nets. Cost recovery has limited value in improving services to poor households, and is no substitute for reforms in fiscal policy, more effective revenue collection, and purposeful prioritisation of social sector spending priorities (Colclough 1977:31). Useful strategies include: Charge fees but selectively waive fees for poor households and/or direct bursaries towards those who cannot pay. Selective fee reduction is necessary to support growth in enrolments from poor households.

Consolidate other fees and levies into fewer payments for specific purposes which are publicly accountable. This is desirable if reductions in tuition fees are not to be translated into higher levies for other activities. Reduce subsidised boarding (as above) Recover some of the costs of learning materials. This is attractive if revolving funds can reduce the price to the individual but also provide funds for replacement. Provide incentives to fund raise at the community level. Matching grants and tax incentives are possibilities. Encourage community contributions to construction in cash or kind. Use matching grants and direct subsidies to assist poor communities unable to make significant contributions.


86

Figure 44 Options for Cost Recovery Topic Option Strategy Impact on


Cost Recovery

Tuition fees Many countries charge fees in public secondary schools. These vary from a small part of the total costs to more than 50%. Grant aided non-government schools usually charge fees similar to government schools. Wholly private schools generally charge higher fees, though low cost private schools have emerged in some countries. Fees may be coupled with loan schemes and scholarships/bursaries for low-income students.

Fees can generate significant proportions of public expenditure. Expanded participation financed from fees will be constrained by household income.

Facilities fees and other levies

Other fees are often charged and may fall outside regulated school fee systems. These can be substantial and increase the direct costs of participation. They should be regulated.

Other fees can make a contribution but may be used to conceal shortcoming in public funding.

Fees for textbooks + learning materials

Charging for textbook loans; charging for material consumed (writing materials, practical subjects etc)

Contributions to learning material costs can increase availability. Revolving textbook funds etc have to be managed so that they do not exclude the poor

Boarding fees

Subsidies for non-essential boarding should be reduced or withdrawn. Essential boarding should develop cost recovery mechanisms related to household income

Reducing subsidised boarding would have a major impact on costs in some systems

Other voluntary fund raising

Fundraising by parent teacher associations, alumni, and school development societies etc can supplement non-salary expenditure and even fund additional teachers. It rarely generates much revenue except in schools serving richer households

Not generally a basis for financing expanded access as it is unreliable and unlikely to make a substantial contribution to most school budgets

Contributions to school feeding programmes

Reduce subsidies on school meals except where there is evidence of inadequate nutrition

Significant where subsidies are widespread and food security exists

Contribution of labour and materials

Parental/community contributions of labour time for construction and maintenance. Buildings especially have to fall within a system of quality assurance and a planning framework for provision

Useful contributions to expanding capacity and facilities

Sale of goods and services

Agricultural production, workshop production etc may make modest contributions to costs.

Little effect on financial viability

Charges for the use of facilities

Sports facilities fees; music tuition; school visits; fieldwork trips; charges for use of school premises for private tuition, rental of premises to businesses.

Little effect on financial viability in most cases


87

School run businesses and links with local employers

Substitution by staff/students of self-help for previously commercial services; association of schools with productive enterprises.

Educational taxes

Marginal taxes on salaried employees; taxes on local production or sales. Graduate taxes on individuals; levies on employers of educated workers.

Loan schemes

Low interest loans to finance private costs of schooling, vouchers.

Difficulty of discouraging default; administrative costs may be high

Non Government Service Provision

Non-government providers make different contributions to access in different countries. Across SSA estimates vary as to how much secondary provision is non-state and there is little information on the proportions which are for-profit and not-for-profit, or on the extent to which it is subsidised through grants in aid, charitable status, direct grants and subsidised fee paying. This makes it impossible to identify a single set of options that apply across all the systems. There are at least three different aspects to the growth in demand for non-government service providers (Lewin and Sayed 2005). First, in low enrolment countries the main energiser of growth is excess demand for school places. In Malawi and elsewhere (e.g. Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia) the supply of government secondary schooling has been restricted. Numbers completing primary schooling are increasing rapidly at rates far in excess of growth in new secondary school places. Transition rates into secondary appear to be falling. Non-government providers have grown in response to this demand amongst those with sufficient income to support the costs of participation. Thus, most new providers in Malawi have been for-profit institutions with a commercial motivation. Second, differentiated demand from parents and students unsatisfied with government schooling is another explanation of growth. This is clearly the case in South Africa, which has high secondary enrolment rates but wide variations in quality. It also has a heterogeneous population with differing preferences for faith- and cultural identity- based schooling. Elite high-cost non-government schools attract aspirant families who value high academic standards, social exclusivity and broad curricula and who perceive many public schools as failing to meet their needs. Faith-based schools offer an alternative to secular public schools. Third, demand for non-government schooling is growing as its supply has increased. In much of SSA more permissive attitudes have been taken by the State to allowing non-government providers to operate. This has resulted in new providers entering the school market place, especially in urban areas, often with conspicuous advertising campaigns to boost demand.


88

The key issues in relation to non-state schooling are (i) how much is it likely to grow and (ii) whether or not it should be subsidised, and (iii) if it is subsidised how should this be achieved with what conditions? The limits on growth of wholly unsubsidised providers are determined by the distribution of household incomes and fee levels as already noted. Fee levels have to be sufficient to pay teachers, rent buildings, and generate profits78. Analyses of affordability suggest that in Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and South Africa it is unlikely that those much below the 20th percentile of household income will be able to afford full fee secondary schooling, even with under-qualified and low paid teachers. Thus though current proportions of private fee paying secondary schooling maybe greater than 20%, as enrolment expands it seems likely that private enrolments will stabilise at around these levels or below. GER2L of 60% will therefore have to be achieved predominantly through publicly funded schools in most of SSA. Not-for-profit non-government schools are subsidised in SSA and a wide variety of arrangements exist. There may be scope for the number of these schools to increase alongside wholly private providers. If so a number of conditions may need to apply. These include clear funding rules that indicate the basis of subsidy and the requirements which must be met to qualify, public accountability through appropriate governance and auditing, and quality assurance systems in which there is some confidence. Without these there are risks of misappropriation and poor value for money. These may be difficult conditions to meet where supervisory capacity is already over stretched. Community based school financing is “not a panacea”. It can exacerbate existing inequalities and can conceal state under funding (Bray 1997:199, World Bank 2005:144) if adopted as a general strategy. However it can and does make a useful contribution to expanded access where it is well managed and can complement mass public systems. Other aspects of subsidy of non-government schooling may have some attractions. If learning material is to be subsidised and low cost materials produced then it may be that these should be available to non-government schools. There are also collective benefits from allowing non-government teachers access to training opportunities and in-service programme related to new curricula. In either case graded subsidies linked to fee levels (high fee low subsidy, low fee high subsidy) might allow pro-poor bias in subsidy payments to schools, as in South Africa (Lewin and Sayed, 2005). Scholarships and bursaries of equivalent value to public school costs may be feasible, and would seem more appropriate for not-for-profit schools. There is a risk however that this kind of subsidy will be captured by children from relatively wealthy households who would otherwise pay.

78 Some estimates suggest that 25% annual returns on investment are not uncommon.


89

Figure 45 Non-Government Providers Topic Option Strategy Impact on



Facilitation If non-government providers are to be encouraged then they need to exist within a clear legal and governance framework. Facilitation requires conditions for registration and licensing, monitoring and quality assurance systems, and financial transparency. This is essential if public subsidy is made available. It is desirable at some minimum level where there is no subsidy. Growth will be limited by costs to households.

Expanded participation benefits from growth in the numbers of non-government providers if they are recognised as efficient. Subsidies raise questions about accountability and value for money

Regulation Regulation is needed to protect the public interest, discourage destructive interaction between public and private sectors (e.g. sharing teachers), and to track subsidies where these are available. If subsidies are used they should be pro-poor rather than regressively directed towards children from richer households.

Graduated subsidy for not for profit providers linked to fee levels can provide benefits for expansion.

Access to learning material

Make low cost and subsidised learning materials available to all schools with the possible exception of those that charge high fees where these costs can be born privately

Improve learning achievement

Encourage access in-service training

Allow non-government teachers to participate in curriculum and pedagogic training related to national curricula at subsidised costs, especially for low fee schools

Improved learning achievement


90

Chapter 6. Ways Forward The development of secondary education in Sub-Saharan Africa is critical to the achievement of the MDGs. Knowledge and skill gaps between SSA and other developing regions have been widening, HIV and AIDs and conflict have depleted the human resources of many countries, and unprecedented numbers of primary completers are seeking access to secondary schooling. Lower secondary schooling is becoming part of the basic education cycle and is a pre-requisite for improvements in the quality of the labour force. Reforms are needed to increase curriculum relevance and respond to new needs, and to allow expanded access at affordable costs.

Starting Points

The analysis has shown that SSA countries fall into five broad groups in terms of existing patterns of access. These are those with

• high participation in primary and secondary with low rates of repetition and drop out (1);

• very high initial enrolment rates in primary but high drop out and repetition with low completion rates, with falling transition rates into secondary and low participation(2);

• high primary entry rates and mid levels of repetition, drop out and completion with mid level secondary enrolments(3);

• primary entry rates below universal levels, and low primary and secondary enrolment rates(4);

• very low primary entry rates and very low participation though primary and secondary school (5).

A consolidation of these patterns is illustrated in Figure 46 showing how participation falls by grade for each group of countries. A critical question for the evolution of participation is whether Type 4 and Type 5 systems will move to become more like Type 2; before reaching the higher enrolment levels of Type 3. Ideally future expansion will not create the exaggerated patterns of Type 2 whereby massive over enrolment in grade 1 is accompanied by high drop out and little improvement in secondary participation rates. If it does then the difficulties associated with falling transition rates into secondary will be exacerbated.


91

Figure 46 Generic Chart of Enrolment Patterns

These patterns suggest different policy priorities for countries in different groups. Some indication of possible options is provided in Table 10, Chapter 3. In sum decisions are needed which

• balance progress on universalising access and completion in primary with needs to increase lower secondary participation;

• recognise the interactions between primary and secondary expansion (especially in teacher supply and transition rates);

• link upper secondary enrolment growth to labour market needs and those of post school education and training, and (iv) identify sustainable frameworks to provide financial resources.

The Enrolment Challenges

If GER 110% is to be achieved (a level sufficient to support universal enrolment and completion) then on average across SSA the number of primary places needs to expand by 1.3 times those in 2001. If population continues to grow at current rates the number needed will be 1.8 times greater by 2015. If lower secondary was to enrol 100% of those of official entry age 4 times as many places will be needed rising to 5.6 times as many by 2015. At upper secondary the figures are 10.9 and 15.5 times respectively for 100% participation. Rates of growth in the last grade of primary and the first of lower secondary, which determine changes in transition rates, would have to be greater. If all those enrolled in

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Grade

Inde

x of

Par

ticpa

tion

1.Hi GER1 Hi GER2


3.Hi GER1Mid GER2

4.Mid GER1Low GER2



1

2

3

4

5


92

grade 1 in 2001 were to reach the final grade of primary school about 2.4 times more places would be needed in the final grade, rising to 3.4 times by 2015. If all those in grade 1 in 2001 were to enter lower secondary then the first grade of lower secondary would have to expand by 4.6 times rising to 6.7 times by 2015. To achieve universal lower secondary education one third of the countries in SSA would have to provide between 4 and 10 times as many places as they do currently for the 2001 cohort and 8 to 20 times as many by 2015. The rates of increase needed to universalise upper secondary are even higher. The analysis79 suggests that:

• The total number of primary places needs to be increased by more than 30% by 2015 in about 70% of the countries in the data set, and some will have to increase places by as much as 100%.

• There are only eleven countries are likely to universalise lower secondary if

the maximum sustainable rate of increase in lower secondary enrolments is 10% a year (Seychelles, South Africa, Cape Verde, Botswana, Sao Tome and Principe, Namibia, Mauritius, Togo, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, and Lesotho); if the maximum rate is set at 5% then only five will achieve this goal (Seychelles, South Africa, Cape Verde, Botswana, Mauritius).

• Targets less than GER2L 100% have to be set if they are to be achievable, and

these will differ between countries depending on country prioritisation of increased access at primary and secondary levels, the resources available, and the costs of expansion.

• It will be difficult for most countries to hold primary secondary transition rates

constant if all primary entrants complete the last year of primary school. Half the countries in the data set will not be able to achieve this unless lower secondary enrolments grow at an average of 10% per year to 20105.

• GER2L can continue to rise if growth is planned to ensure this outcome, even

if transition rates fall for a period.

The Resources Needed

Estimates by country illustrate what percentage of GNP would need to be allocated to different levels80 to reach the target enrolment rates. These estimates are more reliable than the aggregate estimates above which do not differentiate between countries. The recurrent financial resources needed to support expanded access of GER1 = 110%, GER2L = 60% and GER2U = 30% on average require 2.3%, 1.5% and 1.2% of GNP per capita to support primary, lower and upper secondary schooling.across low income SSA. This is equivalent to about $3.7, $2.4, and $2.0 billion per year rising to

79 See Chapter 3 80 Using current cycle lengths for primary, lower and upper secondary.


93

$5.0, $3.2 and $2.7 billion by 2015. Total expenditure on education would need to be about 6.3% of GNP. This is equivalent to about $10.2 billion rising to $13.5 billion per year by 2015. This is about $3.8 billion less than is needed to sustain systems with the targeted higher enrolment rates. The results for each country are in the main text. Targeting GER1=110%, GER2L=100% and GER2U=50% results on average in 2.3%, 2.6% and 2.0% of GNP per capita being needed to support lower and upper secondary schooling. This is equivalent to about $3.7, $4.1 and $3.3 billion per year in 2001 rising to $4.9, $5.4 billion and $4.5 billion by 2015. Total expenditure on education would need to be about 8.6% of GNP on average. This is equivalent to about $13.9 billion rising to $18.5 billion per year by 2015. This is about $7.5 billion (at 2001 prices) more than is available from current patterns of expenditure. If recurrent costs per pupil could be reduced to 12%, 20% and 40% of GNP per capita through packages of reforms the amounts needed for education would fall to about 5% of GNP and the recurrent shortfall to about $1.5 billion per year. If the higher enrolment targets are used, 6.3% of GNP would be needed with a recurrent shortfall of about $3.8 billion a year. These lower cost levels imply dramatic reductions in expenditure per pupil at secondary over current levels, especially in low enrolment countries. Efficiency gains of this magnitude would take several years to achieve and may be beyond reach in the short term. These costs are for recurrent expenditure only. Development costs for classroom building at $10,000 per classroom would be about $39.2 billion, of which $18.9 billion would be for secondary expansion. These costs are projected over the period 2002-2015 and thus would amount to nearly $3 billion a year, or more if incurred over a shorter period. If higher enrolment rate targets are chosen then $20.4, $20.3 and $17.8 billion would be needed for primary, lower and upper secondary respectively totalling $58.5 billion by 2015, or at least $4 billion per year using $10,000 per classroom. If provision of learning materials is regarded as development expenditure then additional costs could be substantial. The cost would be at least at least$1.7 billion at primary and $1.1 billion at secondary. The amounts needed could easily be doubled with higher enrolments. Thus other development costs are of the order of $3 billion per year.

Options for Reforms to Expand Secondary Participation

There are a wide range of options that could result in more participation at affordable costs. A summary list of options is presented in Figure 4781. The options that are likely to be most significant in most SSA countries can be explored for each country. The contribution each can make is system specific since it depends on starting points, political will, and financial and non financial constraints on growth, which all differ markedly across SSA. Prioritisation will also be influenced by the existing patterns of enrolment at different levels and the distance that needs to be travelled to reach target

81 The options are discussed in detail in Chapter 4 along with some indication of their likely significance


94

enrolment levels by 2015 of GER1110%, GER2L 60%, and GER2U 30% for all those countries in Groups 2, 3, 4, and 5. In brief twelve key policy challenges and associated options can be identified which apply to a greater or lesser extent to all low secondary enrolment countries in SSA. First, the allocation of national resources to education has to be considered. The analysis indicates that in general expanded secondary enrolment is unlikely to be sustainable unless more than 5% of GNP is allocated to education, and at least 2.5% of GNP is available for lower and upper secondary schooling. In countries with longer secondary cycles and higher ratios of secondary costs as a proportion of GNP per capita, substantially more than 3% of GNP would be needed to achieve GER2L 60% and GER2U 30%. Second, the salary and non-salary costs per pupil of secondary provision have to fall in most of SSA if higher levels of participation are to be financially sustainable. Public costs per pupil need to fall below 30% and 60% of GNP per capita for lower and upper secondary. Levels as low as 20% and 40% would bring GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% within reach in most countries without allocating much more than 5% of GNP to education assuming a budgetary distribution designed to achieve this goal. Third, a balance has to be struck between rates of expansion towards enrolment targets at primary, lower and upper secondary levels. What is appropriate is a policy choice determined in part by current patterns (especially distance from universalising primary), and partly by domestic prioritisation (especially the choice of expanding lower secondary whilst restricting publicly financed growth at upper secondary). Fourth, structural changes in some countries could facilitate higher secondary enrolment rates at affordable costs. The most important options are reducing elective boarding and/or withdrawing boarding subsidies except where these are essential through progressive transition to more and more day schooling; double shifting where this can reduce constraints on school capacity pending new construction; and careful scrutiny of the cost benefits associated with high cost specialised secondary level schools when compared to general secondary alternatives82. Fifth, better management of the flow of pupils could increase completion rates, lower costs per successful completer, and improve gender equity. This implies strategic intervention to reduce repetition and drop out, lower direct costs to poor households, and review selection and promotion policy related to public examinations. Sixth, improved teacher deployment is likely to be critical to successful expansion. Much more access could be provided if norms for pupil teacher ratios (e.g. 35:1 at lower secondary, and 25:1 at upper secondary) could be applied; similarly class teacher ratios at secondary level should be less than 2:1. In both cases variations between schools could be reduced to say +/- 10% of the average.

82 Especially where these provide technical and vocational education and market demand signals are weak.


95

Seventh, an increased supply of trained teachers will be critical to secondary expansion. Where demand is greatest, and existing initial training lengthy and expensive, alternative methods will have to be considered. This will include shortening initial training, making more use of in-service and mixed mode training, and agreeing appropriate levels of qualification for new secondary teachers that may be different from in the past. Eighth, changes in school management should be considered that provide some incentives to manage human and physical resources efficiently. This can be linked productively with changed methods of school financing that introduce more elements of formula funding, local accountability, and whole school development strategies. Ninth, secondary expansion without curriculum reform risks irrelevance and wastage. New populations of school children require curricula that address their needs, respond to changing social and economic circumstances, and recognise resource constraints. Well designed core curricula teachable effectively in all schools leading to valued knowledge, skills and competencies are essential. Tenth, physical capacity needs planned expansion in ways that optimise increase access. This implies effective school mapping, efficient procurement, and medium term planning of construction programmes for new classrooms and schools. Eleventh, expanded secondary access will benefit greatly from successful mechanisms to generate support from the communities that schools serve. There are many possible methods of cost sharing and cost recovery that can and should be facilitated. These need to be developed. They also need to be linked to the capacity of households to support fees and contributions so that they do not become exclusionary. Finally, partnerships with non-government providers should be explored to see what contribution they can make to expanded access. The central policy questions are what relationships should be facilitated, how should they be regulated, and to what extent should public subsidy be directed towards which kinds of non-government providers?


96

Figure 47 Summary Table of Options for Expanded Secondary Schooling Topic Options Options Options Options Options Allocation of National Resources




Increase external contributions to financing education

Structures Shorten the length of education cycles where this is 13 years; consider 6:3:3 pattern or 6:4:2

Extend primary schools upwards to cover lower secondary grades.

Limit enrolments in high cost technical and vocational secondary schools linked to labour market demand

Increase average school size, especially at secondary level.

Phased expansion of lower secondary before growth in upper secondary

Double shift schools where population density is high

Reduce subsidised non- essential boarding

School Financing Review teacher salaries, scales and ratios of salary costs as % GNP


Reduce non-salary costs but protect expenditure on learning materials

Formula based school funding to improve equity and flow of funds to schools

School improvement grants targeted on quality improvement


Reduce repetition to release school places for new entrants, consider automatic promotion

Reduce drop out to increase completion rates, reduce direct costs to households where this is a cause of drop out

Change selection and promotion methods and improving the flow of pupils; Review promotion and selection policy

Improve attendance to 95% or more to maximise learning opportunities

Pro-poor bursaries and scholarships to encourage participation from low income households

Teacher Deployment

Increase pupil teacher ratios where these are low to a maximum of 35:1 at lower secondary and 25:1 at upper secondary

Reduce class teacher ratios where these are high to below 2:1 at secondary level

Reduce variation in pupil teacher ratios and class teacher ratios between schools towards +/- 10% of the average

Increase the proportion of teaching assistants and temporary teachers where these can complement the use of trained teachers, encourage younger teachers to remain in teaching


School Management

Provide incentives to increase efficiency of school management of human and physical resources

Reduce teacher absenteeism to less than 5%

Increase time on task of pupils through effective timetabling and full use of the teaching days in the year

Increase teaching hours in contact with pupils through better timetabling and monitoring of workload norms.


97

Reformed Curricula and Pedagogy; More Learning Materials

Systematic curriculum reform at lower and upper secondary level to increase relevance and teachability

More modularisation of learning, possible use of multi-grade, greater emphasis on outcomes

Develop core curriculum with reduced number of subjects, produce core learning materials at low cost

Develop effective methods to finance and distribute learning materials to meet target text book per pupil ratios for core subjects.

Consider textbook loan schemes and revolving funds to build stock of learning materials.


Review teacher training structures to establish if they can meet growing demand at affordable costs.

Decide mix of qualification levels of teachers (completed secondary +? Graduates etc.)

Consider shorter initial training supplemented by in-service support, mixed mode training

Review teacher education curricula for fitness for purpose and decide mix of subject upgrading and pedagogic training


Construction Develop procurement system for expanded programme of school and classroom construction


Undertake school mapping exercises to locate new secondary schools in areas of need


Explore multi use designs for new buildings

Cost Recovery Review policy on tuition fees at secondary; consider fee waivers and bursaries as an alternative to fee free provision.

Review policy on facilities fees and other levies to establish costs of attendance and need for subsidies to low income house holds.

Consider textbook loan schemes and revolving funds for learning materials

Withdraw subsidies for non essential boarding

Facilitate voluntary fund raising by communities and schools; consider matching grants

Facilitate contributions in kind to school feeding programmes and labour and materials for construction

Facilitate revenue generating activity where appropriate e.g. sale of goods and services, charges for the use of facilities

Facilitate links with local employers and sponsorship

Consider efficacy of educational taxes

Consider efficacy of loan schemes and micro credit financing


Locate non-government providers in secondary development strategy and map contributions they may make to expanded provision for different household income groups.

Review what level and type of facilitation is appropriate for non-government providers (for profit and not for profit)

Decide what regulation is desirable and necessary for non-government providers; identify the costs and benefits

Consider providing access to subsidised and low cost learning material to non-government providers.

Consider extent of access to government services e.g. in-service training, for non-government providers.

98

Developing a Road Map for Expanded Secondary Schooling in SSA

The place of investment in secondary in poverty reduction and development strategies needs to be securely established. Financing the development of secondary schooling is a key issue for SSA. Without attention to the resource implications of expanded access growth will stall or will result in more lower quality provision. MDG targets will be missed and desired outcomes will remain elusive. Essential requirements are that:

• Education sector reviews should include investment strategies at secondary level as an integral part of their discussions. This requires national prioritisation and realistic dialogues with development partners. It also assumes that PRSPs will recognise the linkages between secondary education investment and general development objectives.

• National strategies for secondary expansion need to be developed which are

pro-poor and make more efficient and equitable and use of public resources. There is no general prescription for this since starting conditions in different countries vary widely. However, a combination of new policies are needed where participation rates are low, access is highly skewed to the relatively wealthy, transition rates are likely to fall as the number of primary leavers increases, and where there are indications that existing patterns of provision have high costs related to internal inefficiencies.

• Costed plans for the development of secondary education have to be

developed and must shape agreed Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks which profile resource allocation. Desirably these will be commissioned within Sector Wide approaches which take an integrated view of educational investment across all levels83. Expansion of secondary schooling at current cost levels has implications for budget shares that need systematic anticipation, policy consensus, and inclusion in annual finance bills.

The planning and implementation of development strategies for secondary schooling has both the quantitative and the qualitative dimensions. The former revolve around realistic projections of growth and its consequences for both recurrent and capital investment at levels that can be sustained. Key questions for policy makers and planners include:

• Which sub-sectoral allocation patterns are most likely to result in achievement of the MDGs? How should the competing demands for investment at different levels be resolved84?

• How should efficiency gains be achieved that will allow expansion at

affordable levels of cost without unacceptable diminution of quality? Which aspects of school funding systems, teacher deployment, and non-salary

83 Secondary level investment cannot be seen in isolation from other education sub-sectors since there are many interactions. Definitional problems need clarification since in some systems lower secondary is already regarded as part of basic education. In others it is seen as above this level. 84 Many budgetary systems have had a strong element of historic and incremental approaches to this question, rather than a strategic approach based on medium term goals.

99

expenditure might be most open to reforms that increase internal efficiency and learning effectiveness?

• How can cost recovery systems be profiled to allow expansion with more

equitable participation that is pro-poor? What are the limits of affordability which will constrain effective demand for secondary schooling as those who participate are drawn from lower income households? What options might lessen the limits on access this imposes?

• To what extent are non-government providers willing and able to complement

publicly subsidised secondary schooling in ways that are pro-poor, based on appraisals of current provision and likely future developments? What mechanisms can or should be used to subsidise non-government providers bearing in mind the opportunity costs for public systems?

• How much development expenditure needs to be budgeted to service planned

expansion and to replenish stock and infrastructure where these have been under funded in the recent past?

Qualitative reforms are needed in the structure, content and process of secondary schooling designed to meet the needs and capabilities of students drawn from a wider range of backgrounds than has historically been the case. These need to recognise that school leavers will enter changing labour markets where new knowledge and skills will be needed, and that majorities will neither find livelihoods and jobs in public sector employment, nor proceed to degree level courses. The range of possible responses to qualitative concerns is wide. It includes consideration of structures related to cycle length, location, and specialisation. Secondary schooling can and probably should be differentiated after a core cycle has been completed. At some point selection into different curricula tracks may be both necessary and desirable. How this is achieved carries cost and efficiency implications. It also embraces curriculum issues, pedagogy, learning materials, and assessment and selection systems. These run beyond the scope of this paper. Where ways forward can be defined they need to costed and planned. Without clear understanding of the resource implications reforms may be still born.

Targets

Some target setting for the secondary school cycle is desirable. Targets should focus attention on planned development, remind stakeholders of the interdependence of targets at one level on activity at the next, and provoke policy dialogue that balances ambitions with realistic judgements of what is needed to support growth. Targets can distort spending if poorly defined. Some are needed in order to:

• Generate a consensus amongst key stakeholders of useful and measurable indicators for the development of secondary schooling bearing in mind the technical problems associated with transition and completion rate targets

100

• Identify plausible targets, different for different systems, which reflect starting points, priorities, political possibilities and resource constraints and which are feasible to achieve over defined time periods taking into account stated priorities across the education sector

• Encourage commitment to the achievement of agreed targets through

expression in forms that can be understood by the key stakeholders who have some accountability for outcomes at different levels, especially at the school and community level

• Establish (or include in existing monitoring systems) methods of periodic

review of progress linked to the planning cycle and iterate such plans Achieving 100% GER2L by 2015 will be very challenging in most low enrolment systems and will require unprecedented financial commitments unless there are cost savings and efficiency gains. It will also need careful planning to account for the non-financial constraints on growth on both the supply and demand sides.. A Framework for Action The main issues which require policy decisions have been identified. A programmatic approach to the development of expanded access to secondary schooling depends on the formulation of short and medium term policy objectives specific to particular systems. These need to specify goals, identify resource envelopes and reconcile these with resource requirements to identify gaps that may exist, and assess the key non-financial constraints on growth. This can then constitute the basis for medium term framework, subject to annual review, to be developed into an implementation strategy. Policy systems, institutional responsibilities, and capacity vary greatly between SSA countries. No one model is therefore appropriate to all. A possible way forward is illustrated below to encourage discussion of how a systematic approach might develop into planned expansion of secondary schooling. A national co-ordinating structure is likely needed to manage and develop secondary schooling. This needs close articulation with planning for primary and post secondary education. Where basic education includes lower secondary a decision is needed on organisational location and overlapping responsibilities, and on how to coordinate upper secondary development. This co-ordinating structure has to be closely linked to sector development policy and be aware of the resource envelope it can operate within generally determined by Ministries of Finance. It should desirably also involve key stakeholders including those with responsibilities for curriculum, teacher education, school building, production and distribution of learning materials, examinations and selection, and might involve teachers unions, community representatives, and non-government providers. At least five other organisational capabilities are needed to generate coherent medium term plans which can be implemented. These may be specially constituted or drawn from existing organisational capabilities. These are:

101

• Finance and Planning Task Group. Managed expansion depends on robust information about system characteristics including school census data on flows of pupils, teacher deployment, school location, facilities, etc. which can be used to project future resource demands under different policy regimes. It can anticipate how expansion can and should evolve and identify choices that require policy dialogue.

• Construction and Procurement Task Group. Expanded capacity requires classroom and school building organised in ways which maximise access and create durable structures to appropriate specifications in a timely manner. There may be non-financial constraints on growth which limit the rate at which capacity can be expanded. Planned growth will identify future needs and schedule construction in advance of the need for additional school places.

• Curriculum Development Task Group. Curriculum reform should be a rolling process designed to periodically renew learning specifications and material in a sequential way according to consistent pedagogic principles. Core curricula, effective teacher education, and relevant teaching and learning have to build from systematic curriculum development.

• Teacher Education Task Group. If pupil teacher ratios are to be managed effectively, and the supply of trained teachers is to be adequate, methods of training have to be capable of producing enough trained teachers in advance of when they are needed. Training must be adapted to the qualifications and competencies that new entrants have acquired. Curriculum reform to meet the needs of expanded groups of secondary pupils needs planned in-service support for existing teachers.

• Educational Management Task Group. School effectiveness is primarily a school management concern. Changed management practices will be needed to increase efficiency and effectiveness, improve the quality of learning, and ensure that expanded provision results in worthwhile outcomes. School financing and quality assurance mechanisms may also need reconfiguring.

Concluding Remarks

In conclusion several points stand out.

• Expanding access to secondary level in low enrolment countries in SSA requires a range of strategies designed to increase policy commitment to the development of the sub-sector, identify critical constraints, and resolve resource issues.

• Greatly increased numbers of primary school graduates seeking admission to

secondary schools will become a highly visible feature of the political landscape in SSA. Without a strategic approach transition rates into secondary schooling will fall, access may become less equitable, and sustained EFA will be jeopardised.

• In some systems much could be achieved through improved internal efficiency

that might double enrolments without adding much to overall costs through

102

reductions in unit costs. In other systems, it will be very important to increase the share of the budget that is allocated to secondary schooling.

• Major structural reform at secondary level (e.g. changing the length of cycles, adding lower secondary grades to primary schools) may be an option in some cases but depend on consistent political commitment. Transition costs may be high.

• The direct costs of participation are a constraint on participation throughout SSA; generally they result in the exclusion of most of the poor. Planned expansion should be more rather than less equitable. If so it will have to address questions of affordability. Community initiatives may be able to share the development costs of new schools. They are unlikely to support recurrent costs except in relatively rich communities.

• Non-government providers can and do support a proportion of enrolment secondary level. There are limits to future growth of the sector determined by affordability, by concerns with effective regulation and quality, and with equity. It is unlikely to be the method of choice in expanding participation in most SSA systems to GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% or greater.

• Expanded participation requires curriculum development to reflect new goals for an expanded cohort of pupils with different qualities to those selected for secondary schooling in highly selective systems. A focus on a limited core of subjects, movement towards curricula linked to criterion levels of achievement, and an adequate supply of learning materials inappropriate languages are obvious starting points.

• The non-financial constraints to growth may prove definitive. Planned growth that does not undermine quality depends on new and expanded physical facilities appropriately located, an adequate supply of trained teachers, sufficient learning materials, curricula and pedagogy sufficiently attractive to retain pupils, and valid and reliable assessment systems. The lead times associated with overcoming these constraints have to be part of planned growth.

• Better estimates of costs are needed which are grounded in data from each system, and are linked to feasible programmes of reform designed to maximise more equitable access and preserve quality. The role and magnitude of external support that should be committed to enhancing participation at secondary level depends on a consensus about the importance of investment in the sub-sector, the length of time over which enrolment goals are to be met, the balance of existing domestic investment between education sub-sectors, and the profile of external assistance from multi and bi-lateral sources.

The role and magnitude of external support that should be committed to enhancing participation at secondary level depends on a consensus about the importance of investment in the sub-sector, the length of time over which enrolment goals are to be

103

met, the balance of existing domestic investment between education sub-sectors, and the priorities set for external assistance by multi and bi-lateral sources. The climate is now favourable to re-examine how best to channel external assistance to meet the pressing needs to expand access to secondary schools. Globally across SSA sustaining GER1 110%, GER2L 60% and GER2U 30% would require more than $3.8 billion a year in addition to existing allocations to recurrent expenditure on education, or $6.8 billion if higher enrolment targets are chosen. A further $6 to $8 billion a year may be required for development expenditures depending on the targets chosen. Less might be needed if efficiency gains were substantial which could reduce the shortfall in funding if radical cost saving reforms were implemented. More might be needed if extending secondary schooling to un-served populations turned out to be much more expensive than current provision and if universalising primary schooling requires more resources than currently anticipated. A proportion of these resources could be found from domestic resources where allocation to education is low. In the poorest and lowest enrolment countries external assistance will be essential. Participation at secondary level in SSA will grow, and will contribute to achieving the education related MDGs and Dakar Targets. The central issues remain how to finance and manage this growth in ways that are more equitable and efficient, which recognise the non-financial constraints on enrolment growth, and that offer the prospect of improved quality, competence and relevance to those who subsequently enter increasingly competitive national and international labour markets. This book provides an agenda for discussion in an area of policy that will become more and more important over the next decade. The case made is that the MDGs and Dakar goals will only be met through a balanced approach that recognises that investment above the primary school level interacts with the development of universal primary policies, that gender equity is more likely with higher rates of participation at secondary level, and that finance and cost structures for secondary invite serious reform if there is to be much prospect of mass secondary participation in SSA. Expansion without due attention to financial realities will jeopardise quality and achievement, generate disillusion with the costs and benefits of post primary schooling, and miss an opportunities to close the gap between Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions of the world in the educational endowments of its population. The sustainability of EFA will depend on a return to consistent economic growth. This is much more likely with the strategic development of secondary schooling than without it.

104

Main Text: Annex 1

Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda: Projecting the Future.

105

Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda: Projecting the Future. Detailed projections of the cost and financing of secondary school expansion have been completed in Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda85. The estimates have been developed for Education Sector Reviews to shape Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks. In each case the education system has been modelled from school and population census data to generate enrolment projections through to 2015. Primary enrolment growth is shaped to achieve Gross Enrolment Rates in excess of 100% by 2015 with reduced repetition and drop out. The expansion of secondary enrolments is treated as a policy variable and is not linked mechanically to the growing output of primary schooling. The reason for this is that growth in secondary places will not simply expand to absorb greater and greater proportions of primary leavers. During periods where primary output grows fastest, primary/secondary transition rates in these countries are likely to fall for a period before recovering. The approach adopted in the modelling identifies different plausible rates of growth in the number of lower secondary places, taking into account historic rates of school construction, capacity of teacher training, and likely changes in budgetary allocation to secondary schooling. Costs are generated from disaggregated Ministry of Education and Ministry of Finance data that separates costs for different types of teachers, non-teaching staff, and various non-salary costs including boarding, food subsidies, and learning materials. Unit costs for different school types are then used to generate cost drivers. Development costs are estimated using known school and classroom building costs. On this basis it is possible to project flows of pupils and costs under different scenarios86. This produces estimates of budget shares needed to finance growth and identifies gaps in financing. As part of the analysis non-financial constraints on growth are also noted. Since the three countries have differently configured education systems, different starting points and different policy priorities, the projections vary in some of the parameters they model and in the assumptions on which they are based. They illustrate what is possible within affordable levels of financing given clear prioritisation and consistent implementation of reform and expansion strategies.

85 More detailed reports are available in Sector Review papers. Projections date from 2003-2005 86 Only selected scenarios are included in these summaries.

106

Case 1: Secondary School Development in Tanzania

Tanzania has one of the lowest secondary school enrolment rates in SSA and has a very small proportion of its labour force with completed secondary schooling with adverse effects on its international competitiveness. Primary enrolments reached high levels in the 1970s but then fell back in the 1980s. Since then a new commitment to achieving universal primary education has seen gross enrolment rates rise to over 100%. As a result the number of primary graduates is set to triple by 2008/9 assuming repetition and drop out fall in line with targets that have been set. Without expansion in secondary schooling the transition rate will fall rapidly. This may have an adverse effect on primary completion rates. For these and other reasons the Secondary Education Development Programme (SEDP) has been agreed with support from the World Bank. Enrolments at secondary level will not simply grow at the rate of increase of primary graduates. In the past the flow into government schools as been regulated to reflect the number of places available and this will continue to be the case with expansion. The Model therefore sets rates of expansion for new enrolments in Form 1, and derives subsequent enrolments from this making assumptions about repetition, promotion and drop out rates based on Ministry of Education and Culture ambitions to increase internal efficiency and increase GER2. Projected growth rates for the non-government sector are based on estimates derived from analysis of recent expansion and the constraints to further growth that arise from affordability and school location. The central projections presented below are based on a Medium Growth variant of the model that responds to the stated intention of to increase participation rates at secondary level to closer to the average for similar SSA countries which is about GER2 25%. In 2003 GER2 secondary in Tanzania was about 7% for government schools and 4% for non-government schools. Assumptions The main assumptions of the Tanzania Projection Model are:

• The number of primary 7 leavers will grow in line with the flow of current primary enrolments

• Secondary Form 1 places will grow at a rate determined by the main targets for the participation rate (GER); transition rates will follow a pattern determined by this

• PSLE Pass Rates will not restrict entry to an expanded secondary school system; the Form II progression examination will not lead to more drop out than it currently does.

• More growth will be in subsidised government schools as the costs of non-government education become an obstacle to the enrolment of those below the 20th decile of household income

• Teacher demand will be projected on the assumption that all new teachers (public and non-government) will be qualified at Diploma or Graduate level in similar proportions as currently

• Costs of teacher training will be advanced over annual demand for new teachers to account for lead times in training

• Attrition amongst graduate teachers will remain high • Primary teacher training will be sufficient to bring PTRs down to 45:1 by 2010 • The Pupil Teacher ratio in secondary schools will move from about 22:1 to 30:1 by 2010

and remain at this level

107

The Medium Growth variant is designed to be financially sustainable and achieve the highest rates of growth in enrolment compatible with the non-financial constraints on expansion which include rates of growth in physical capacity in schools and teacher supply, and the levels of student achievement. A variety of reforms are planned to enhance internal efficiency, and to encourage more equitable access. Enrolments Total enrolments at primary level will grow until about 2008 and then fall until 2012 after which they should grow again at the rate of population growth87. The numbers reaching the end of primary school will rise sharply from 2005 to 2008. They will then fall until about 2014. There is unlikely to be a smooth growth in demand for secondary school places, but rather a sudden increase followed by a period of stability. This arises from the current pattern of enrolment growth through the primary grades in the wake of UPE. Currently many are excluded from secondary because they fail to pass the primary school leaving examination. It is assumed that the examination will cease to restrict entry over time and that by 2010 most will pass, consistent with UPE policy.

Enrolments at secondary level will be determined by the availability of places. The model allows increases in Form 1 entrants of about 20% a year over the period until 2008 falling to 10% after 2010. The private sector is assumed to grow at 15% falling to 5% after 2010. Its growth will be constrained by the costs of attendance and the economic returns to owners. During the period of high growth pupil teacher ratios will increase from about 22:1 to 30:1. This will reduce new teacher demand and costs.

87 Falling total enrolment results from reductions in overage enrolment and repetition

Total Primary Enrolment

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary 7 Enrolment and PLSE Passes

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

S7 EnrolS7 Passes

Total Enrolments at Secondary Level FmI-FmVI

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Government Total (FI-VI)Non-Government Total (FI-VI)Total (FI-VI)

Pupil Teacher Ratios

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GovtNon-GovernmentDiplomas to FmI-IVGrads to FmV-VI

108

Enrolment and Transition Rates Under this scenario GER2 will grow from about 11% to nearly 40% by 2015 (with a gradual reduction in the number of pupils outside the official age range). Transition rates will first increase to 35% by 2006, then fall to 23% by 2009, before recovering to nearly 50% by 2015. This fall cannot be avoided and results from the wave of expanded primary school leavers reaching secondary entrance level.

Teacher Demand The number of new teachers needed is substantial. It will require a tripling or more of training capacity. Trainees will have to be enrolled between one and three years in advance of being needed in schools depending on the pattern of teacher training88. Even with these reductions in length demand is so high that more than 25% of all upper secondary school leavers would need to train to be teachers at peak demand. This may not be realistic given alternate opportunities89.

Graduate teacher training is very expensive (up to 20 times the costs of Diploma training per trained teacher) and currently takes four years. It seems likely that within five years of graduation attrition is at least 50%. New policy is needed on graduate training and posting to reduce costs and attrition. The model assumes shorter training for both graduates (3 years) and diplomats (one year).

88 The intention is that training at Diploma level is to be reduced from two years to one, and at degree level from four years to three. 89 Currently (2004) there are enough places in higher and further education to enrol all secondary school leavers who complete successfully.

Gross Enrolment Rates Secondary(Currently 40 % enrolment outside 14-17 years old)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GER Govt (FI - IV)

GER Non-Government(Fm I - IV)

GER Overall usingAverage PopulationGrowth Rate

GER Overall using 2002Census

Transition Rates from S7 to Fm I Public and Non Government

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NominalTransitionRate Govt(FI/S7Enrolment)

NominalTransitionRate Non-Government(FI/S7Enrolment)

NominalTransitionRate Total(FI/S7Enrolment)

Additional Teachers Needed - Graduate and Diplomates(Within Year; Not Lagged for Training Time to Produce Increased Output)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Additional GraduatesAdditional DiplomatesTotal New Teachers Needed

Percentage of Form VI Leavers to Entrants into Diploma and Degree Training

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% DiplomaEntrants to FormVI leavers

% Grad. Entrantsto Form VIleavers

109

Unit Costs Unit cost at secondary are planned to increase initially (reflecting improved quality related inputs) and then stabilise over the projection period.

New Schools and Classrooms The number of new schools and additional classrooms in existing schools needed is substantial. It will require a systematic approach to location, contracting and site management. Some cost sharing with some communities may be feasible.

Costs The recurrent costs of the whole system including primary and tertiary sectors grow from about TSh 375 Billion to TSh1,000 billion by 2015/6. This creates a shortfall of

Unit Cost (TSh Millions)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average Public SecondarySchool Unit Cost (TSh)

Primary Teacher TrainingPublic Unit Costs (TSh)

Secondary Dip TraineePublic Annual Unit Cost (TSh)

Secondary Grad. TraineePublic Annual Unit Cost(TSh)

Total Cost (MillionTsh), Unit Costs (Tsh) and Teachers Salaries/Pupil (TSh) Secondary Government

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Public Annual Rec ExpSecondary (Millions of TSh)

Average Public Secondary SchoolUnit Cost (TSh)

Teacher Training Expenditure Diploma and Graduates Only T Sh Million

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Recurrent Cost ofDiplomates (MillionsTSh)

Recurrent Cost ofGraduates (MillionsTSh)

Cost of Graduate andDiploma Training(Million TSh)

Budget Growth at 6.5%

High Growth BudgetTeacher Training

Number of Schools, Classrooms and Classroom Rehabilitations Needed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Government SchoolsNon-Government SchoolsGovernment ClassroomsNon-Government ClassroomsTotal Rehabilitated Classrooms

110

about TSh 220 billion a year. To achieve all the outcomes projected thus requires additional finance. The “finance gap” for secondary (the difference between what is needed and what would be available from the education budget assuming IMF projected growth) is substantial but could be met through a combination of reallocation within the education budget and additional external support. Expenditure on primary slows for a period after 2007 as total enrolment contracts. This could release resources for investment at other levels.

The projections can be realised with an increase in the budget share to secondary from 7% to about 25% by 2015. Higher education allocations would grow at a slower rate than budget growth and therefore shrink as a proportion of the total90. The proportion of GDP allocated to education would rise to just over 4% and the percentage of the government budget allocated to education would need to settle at about 30%.

Conclusion Secondary participation in Tanzania can rise to GER2 = 40% with the assumptions of these projections. This requires less restrictive policy on promotion from primary, substantial school and classroom building, greatly expanded teacher training, and higher pupil teacher ratios at secondary. It also requires reforms in curriculum to increase relevance and achievement that can help reduce repetition and drop out rates. Changes in budget shares and feasible additional financing is needed to achieve these outcomes.

90 Higher education currently consumes more public resources than all secondary schooling. The proportion is therefore planned to fall.

Recurrent Budget and Expenditure by Sub Sector (T Sh Billions)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2003

/4

2004

/5

2005

/6

2006

/7

2007

/8

2008

/9

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

T Sh

Bill

ions

Total Budget (TSh Billions) (Growth using IMFprojections)Primary

Teacher Training Colleges (Primary)

Secondary

Teacher Training Colleges (Secondary)

All Grad Training

Non University Further Education

University (Excluding Teacher Training)

Adult Education

Admin & General Ed

Total Budget Needed

Budget Allocations with Teacher Training Allocations Shifted Forward 3+1 Degrees and 1+1 Diplomas

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Admin & General Ed

Adult Education

University(Excluding TeacherTraining)Non UniversityFurther Education

All Grad training

Teacher TrainingColleges(Secondary)Secondary

Teacher Training

Education Recurrent Expenditure as % GDP and % Government Expenditure

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

%

Total educationrecurrentexpenditures asshare of GDP(percentage)

Total recurrenteducationexpenditures asshare of totalexpenditures(percentage)

Finance gap Recurrent and Development - Secondary Only - T Sh BillionsNo Forward Shift of Development Expenditure

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SecondaryRecurrent Gap -Schools+TTraining

SecondaryDevelopment Gap- Schools +Teacher Training

Total Gap T ShBillions)

111

Case 2: Post Primary Education and Training (PPET) in Uganda

Uganda has developed its education system consistently since it returned to stable government. Gross enrolment rates at primary are over 110% and it is thought that over 90% of children enter grade 1. After the announcement of free universal primary education (UPE) the numbers enrolled in primary increased substantially. The number graduating from grade 7 is set to more than double by 2010 and the selection of students into secondary school is becoming a very visible political issue. Since the late 1990s non-government secondary schools have mushroomed, most being run commercially for profit. The non-government sector appears to be reaching the limits of affordability and growth has now slowed. The government of Uganda has developed new policy on Post Primary Education and Training (PPET) to meet rising demand and increase access to secondary schools and beyond. The goals of new investment in PPET Uganda can be defined as:

• Expanding access to populations currently excluded in an equitable way

• Improving quality, relevance and consequently achievement in knowledge, skills and competencies that are fundamental to subsequent learning, employment and livelihoods

• Providing opportunities to develop higher level knowledge, skills and

competencies which have utility and are valued.

• Encouraging values, motives, and behaviours consistent with national aspirations and needs.

A framework for policy has been developed through a broad consultation. It identifies achievable policy goals costed to fall within a realistic budgetary envelope. The Uganda Baseline Projection for PPET contains within it a number of assumptions and a range of programmatic activities designed to achieve stated government goals for PPET at sustainable cost. Specifically, it would allow the UPE “bulge” of enrolments to be absorbed without a serious decline in transition rates, and with an increasing GER2. It anticipates the building of secondary level institutions operating at costs similar to day secondary schools in every sub-county currently without such a facility by 2011. It would also support a substantial programme of classroom and institutional rehabilitation to make full use of existing assets. A package of reforms is envisaged which include those focused on improved access and equity through school and classroom building, pro poor capitation, fee waivers, and bursary schemes, and new provision in under served areas. Improved efficiency is needed and can be achieved through management reforms, raising the pupil teacher ratio, increasing teachers time on task, reducing repetition, adopting formula funding of schools, improving accountability, using matching grants to generate additional resources, and reducing the number of small schools. Improved quality should arise from a reformed core curriculum with more a concentrated core, a more outcomes based curriculum linked to attainment targets, much improved text book provision,

112

more school based teacher education, and more effective regulation of the private sector. Outcomes Achievable with an Integrated PPET Policy

• Increased secondary participation to levels where more than half of all children could complete four years of secondary level education and training;

• Provision of secondary level institutions in all sub-counties with low fee schools in the poorest areas;

• Improved access for girls and other disadvantaged groups through an expanded bursary scheme and other measures;

• Rehabilitation of existing BTVET institutions;

• Creation of some specialised science and technology institutions to serve marginalized areas;

• Improved efficiency through better school management of teachers and other resources;

• The implementation of a core curriculum focused on basic and generally useful knowledge and skills, relevant both to school leavers and those who continue studying, consisting of a limited number of subjects teachable in all types of schools including the smallest;

• The provision of curriculum pathways that could include more activity based work, focused on skills and competencies valued by the labour market, and offered in schools which decided to offer a broader range of options;

• The development of more competence based and attainment target related curricula and examinations linked to minimum and desirable standards;

• The realisation of the goal that all children have access to textbooks in core subjects;

• The promotion of "outreach" activities using school and other facilities to offer short modularised skill based training at community level and at affordable costs;

• The integration of school level PPET provision within a coordinated strategy inclusive of secondary schools and BTVET institutions;

• The reconfiguration of post-secondary pre-university further education and training into a coherent system;

• The rationalisation of systems of qualifications, which recognises equivalences between pathways to certified competence in employment related skills.

The Baseline Model The Uganda Baseline Model assumes that the Medium Term Budgetary Framework will allow growth in resources at 6.5% p.a. and that overall transition rates from primary to secondary can be sustained between 40% and 50% as the wave of increased

113

primary enrolments passes through the system. Gross Enrolment Rates (GER2) will climb from 30% to over 45% towards a level at which gender parity is more likely. Entrants to government schools would grow at 7.5% p.a. for the first five years and then slow to 5% p.a.. It is assumed that private sector growth will continue but begin to slow as price constraints exclude low income households. Enrolments would climb in government schools to about 610,000 and private schools to 720,000. The latter may be optimistic. This would occur alongside a rise in the pupil teacher ratio from about 23:1 to 30:1. The demand for newly trained teachers would be somewhat less than 1500 p.a. for government schools and around 2,000 p.a. for private schools. The Baseline Model requires about 16% of total public recurrent expenditure on education to be allocated to secondary, and about 4% to Business Technical Vocational Education and Training (BTVET). The latter is likely to be an over estimate given the past performance of the sector. Overall about 20% of the recurrent education budget would need to be allocated to PPET. The proportion of development expenditure needed would be less. This scenario is plausible, especially if growth in subsidy at tertiary level was restrained. Total primary enrolments are likely to grow from about 7 million to a peak of 8 million in 2005. By 2012 they fall back to 7 million as the effects of UPE work their way through. If drop out falls then the total enrolment will remain at higher levels. Falling repetition would decrease total enrolments as the cohort move through the grades more quickly. Age cohort growth is assumed at 3%. The number of primary graduates passing the school leaving and selection examination peak in 2005 (650,000) and 2009 (825,000) and then decline. They constitute the cohort seeking access to Secondary 1.

In 2002, about 102,000 PLE holders were selected for entry to S1 in government schools. Private schools provided 131,000 places. High rates of growth in the private sector are unlikely. It seems probable that private secondary school fee rates are approaching the limit of affordability for the marginal household. In 2002 the nominal transition rate into S1 government schools was about 23% and to private schools 32%. The projection illustrates how transition rates will decline and then recover over a ten year period on current assumptions about growth in resources and places. This is unavoidable unless the secondary schools system is reformed more radically to provide places at much lower unit costs.

Primary Enrolment

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary Enrolment in P7 and PLE Passes

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Enrolment P7PLE Passes

114

Enrolment Growth

Secondary school enrolments in government schools will increase from about 375,000 to over 720,000 and private schools are likely to grow from perhaps 420,000 to over 610,000 over the projection period to 2012. Technical/farm schools and technical institutes are likely to enrol less than 20,000 by 2012. The level may be even lower given the current pattern of preference for such schools. 3,400 candidates applied for technical/farm school in 2002 and less than 2,000 were accepted on the basis of the lowest grade of PLE pass. This is less than 1% of P7 enrolment.

Enrolment patterns in secondary schooling are assumed to remain static in terms of repetition (which is already low), and drop out. If drop out reduced, enrolments would increase but this would seem unlikely unless direct to households costs fall. Fees and other costs could be reduced in government schools. Most obviously increased Pupil Teacher Ratios would reduce salary costs per child and some of the benefit might be passed on in the form of reduced fees. Other cost saving measures might also be possible, assuming management systems were introduced that were sensitive to costs and efficiency.

The output from the NTCs is above that justified by new demand, and does not take into account the stock of trained teachers who have recently graduated and have not been employed as teachers – these may number as many as 20,000. NTC enrolments should therefore fall. However the cost implications of this cannot be simulated until a decision is made on what would be done with the staff of these institutions. Enrolments and the costs in the NTCs have been held constant in the baseline model.

Enrolments in the BTVET system assume that enrolments in the post school Colleges, and technical institutes, and technical schools/farm schools, grow at 5% p.a. These BTVET Colleges have high unit costs which constrain growth. Their enrolments could grow faster than 5% under different arrangements whereby their structures, governance and financing were substantially reformed and cost recovery applied to areas of effective demand. The current projections only account for fully subsidised places. There is considerable uncertainty about the numbers of privately financed students actually enrolled. Publicly supported enrolments would increase by about 60% over the projection period to about 40,000 (including NTCs and 14 new community polytechnics).

Enrolment in S1 Government

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Nominal Transition Rate P7-S1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GovtPrivateOverall

115

Demand for Teachers The proposed increases in PTR from about 22:1 to 33:1 by 2012 are central to the affordability of increases in the supply of government school places. If these increases do not occur then public costs will escalate and participation rates will not rise fast without large budgetary increases for PPET. In 2002 employment of on-payroll teachers was estimated as about 14,400. This may be slightly optimistic - at the end of 2001 about 13,000 were employed. Since then an uncertain number have been taken on to the payroll as some grant maintained schools have been taken over. The number of teachers employed rises in the simulation to about 17,000 by 2012. This ceiling is necessary to stay within the resource envelope. About 15% of teachers in government schools are not on the payroll but are financed from other income including school fees. It has been assumed that this proportion stays constant. This does not preclude these teachers joining the payroll as teachers retire or leave the service and being replaced by others. The model assumes that the proportion of graduate teachers increases at 2% p.a. from current levels. The indications are that less than 1,400 new teachers are required in government schools p.a. as a result of expansion, attrition at 5%, and an increasing PTR. This is well below the output of the National Teacher College (NTC) system and the output of other providers of teachers at tertiary level, which appears to exceed about 7,000 p.a.. Even if new demand from private schools is considered the totals are still within current training capacity. When it is remembered that there is a stock of unemployed teachers (perhaps 20,000 or more) available from previous years training as a result of recruitment freezes, the real demand for newly trained teachers is further diminished to very low levels.

Total Enrolment Government and Private

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GovtPrivateEnrol TI and TS

Enrolment BTVET

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CP Pupils

Enrol TS

Enrol TI

All SubsidisedStudents

NTCs

Teachers on and off Payroll (Govt Schools)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Teachers on PayrollTeachers off PayrollCP Teachers

Total New Teachers Needed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Govt TeachersPrivate TeachersNew CP Teachers

116

Unit Costs

Unit costs for different sub sectors are shown below for 2001. This indicates that public unit costs for secondary level provision vary from about USh 145,000 to over USh 700,000 and that Colleges often exceed USh 1 million. University costs usually exceed USh3 million per student (not shown). Community polytechnics have been costed at two levels - that proposed in the last BTVET development plan, and that suggested by the constrained figures used to define the low cost pilot suggested in this report.

General secondary schools are relatively cost effective in providing additional places to expand access. Pass rates are also higher in secondary schools than in technical/farm schools and technical institutes, raising the differential for costs per successful graduate to over 4:1 i.e four secondary school places cost as much as one technical/farm school place. Simply put the mix of school types chosen for expansion will determine the number that can be afforded within the resource envelope in a ratio similar to that of their recurrent costs.

Development Activities The resource envelope created by assumed growth of 6.5% p.a. in the MTBF is sufficient to allow the construction of up to 300 new classrooms p.a. accommodating 50 pupils at a cost of USh8 million per classroom; rehabilitation of up to 140 unusable classroom spaces p.a. at USh 2.5 million; up to 60 new schools p.a. at a cost of USh 140 million; and construction of up to 40 laboratories/workshops p.a. at about USh 20 million. It would allow the construction of 14 community polytechnics at USh 200 million. This would allow the increased enrolments in government schools indicated in previous Figures. Changing the cost assumptions would change the volume of activity that could be sustained. If cost management could successfully reduce building costs, more structures could be provided. In sum these activities would result in the development of 470 new schools and 14 community polytechnics by 2012 which is more than enough to ensure every sub-county currently lacking a secondary school had one, over 2,300 new classrooms could be added to existing schools, about 1,200 classrooms could be rehabilitated, and over 350 laboratories or workshops could be built. This is a substantial rate of construction

Unit Costs 2002 U Sh ( Government Estimates)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

Govt S

ec S

choo

ls

Tech S

ch/Farm

Sch

ools

Techn

ical In

stitut

es

Ugand

a Coll

eges

of C

ommerc

e

Ugand

a Tec

hnica

l Coll

eges

Agricu

ltural

Coll

eges

Coope

rative

Coll

ege

Health

Trainin

g Coll

eges

Meteoro

logy T

rainin

g Coll

ege

Health

Tutors

Colleg

e

Hotel o

f Tou

rism

Wild

Life

and T

ouris

m

Nation

al Tea

chers

Coll

eges

Origina

l CP

Modifie

d CP

CP Instu

ctors

Colleg

e

PTCs INSET

PTCs PreS

ET

117

which could be afforded along with the recurrent cost burden it creates, but it would require efficient procurement and quality assurance systems, and adherence to planned PTR increases if recurrent costs were to be sustainable.There are a range of other activities that are included in the projection which would incur costs. These include USh 25 billion over the plan period for targeted textbook support programmes in addition to capitation and normal non-salary recurrent support; USh 14 billion for equipment and learning infrastructure; and up to USh3 billion p.a. for about 10,000 targeted bursaries. Each of these inputs is designed to be focused on improved access and equity and is not intended as a flat rate addition across the system.

In addition to the 14 community polytechnics currently included, BTVET development funding includes rehabilitation costs for technical/farm schools (USh 3 billion), and technical institutes (USh5 billion). These figures may be unnecessarily large. They assume that the institutions continue as they are and are not integrated into the general school level system and operate at lower costs, which is an option. USh 20 billion development expenditure is available across the College system over the period on the assumption that it could be wisely used in rehabilitating space, improving learning resources and revitalising the post school provision of programmes under a restructured system of governance, management and accountability. In advance of a focused review of this level of provision the amounts included are speculative but within the envelope.

Projections

Under this projection scenario the Gross Enrolment Rate at secondary would increase from about 35% to over 45% by 2012. Enrolments would be distributed between government and private schools in similar ratios to those that currently exist. For reasons mentioned above, it is not realistic to expect private sector enrolments to continue to grow faster than in government schools because of cost constraints related to the distribution of household incomes. The gross enrolment rates for four years of secondary are shown below. These estimated GERs might be higher if census data establish that population growth rates are falling. At the end of the projection period they reach about 45%. Faster progress is not possible within the resource envelope.

Growth in Activities (Number)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

New ClassroomsSchoolsRehab ClassroomsLabs/wkshps

118

Recurrent and Development Expenditure It is assumed that the MTBF grows at 6.5% from baseline levels in 2002. Secondary recurrent expenditure tracks the MTBF with little more than a 5% overspend over the period. Secondary development expenditure is in greater proportional deficit on a much smaller base as a result of the substantial investment in construction to create capacity. This should not be problematic and is an investment that will be repaid in future years as enrolment rate growth falls and development needs diminish. Construction to appropriate standards should be discounted over the lifetime of buildings which should be at least 50 years. If growth was as low as 5% in the government budget then larger deficits would appear over 10% of the recurrent budget which would need addressing. The BTVET recurrent budget is in surplus even when the recurrent cost of the 14 pilot community polytechnics is included (the CPs are costed at USh 200 million to build, 24:1 PTR, and USh50,000 per pupil (i.e. three times normal secondary school capitation). The surpluses are a little less than the projected secondary deficits. The balance of expenditure varies over time when projected expenditure is compared with the MTBF growing at 6.5%. Though both general secondary and BTVET parts of the budget are close to balance they deliver different levels of access and participation per Uganda Shilling because of their related unit costs. The secondary school system currently costs about USh65 billion p.a, and enrols an estimated 370,000 pupils (2002). The BTVET technical/farm schools and technical institutes appear to enrol about 12,000 at a recurrent cost of about USh5 Billion.

Nominal GERs Secondary

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Govt PrivateOverall

Recurrent and Development Expenditure Secondary

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bill

ions

USh Recurrent Expenditure Sec.

Development ExpenditureMTBF RecurrentMTBF Development

Recurrent and Development Expenditure BTVET

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bill

ions

USh

Recurrent No CPsRecurrent with CPsRecurrent MTBFDevt no CPsDevt with CPsDevt MTBF

119

The proportion of the recurrent education budget that would be needed to sustain the projection and its activities is shown below. Secondary would require about 17% of the education budget and BTVET 3%. This totals 20% which is more than the allocations in recent years which have totalled about 18%. Assuming GDP growth of 6.5% p.a. this would amount to a little over 3% of GDP during the projection period which is below the SSA average.

The baseline projection requires an increase in the allocation to secondary and BTVET if it is to be realised. The shortfall may be reduced if:

• initial teacher training in NTCs and for CP teachers is scaled down • BTVET recurrent costs are overestimated as a result of projecting enrolment

growth from baseline enrolment figures and unit costs that are themselves overestimates.

• faster progress towards PTR targets is achieved since this would reduce growth in teachers salaries.

• new arrangements are made for medium term strategic development of the post school Colleges which involve greater cost recover for those in demand and redeployment in those with few students.

Conclusion

Uganda can increase participation at secondary substantially within affordable levels of financing. The magnitude of the financial shortfall is of the order of USh 8 billion a

Balance of Recurrent Expenditure with MTBF 6.5%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Bill

ions

U S

h

SecondaryBTVET CPsBTVET No CPs

Balance of Development Expenditure with MTBF 6.5%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012B

illio

ns U

Sh

SecondaryBTVET CPsBTVET No CPs

120

year for recurrent and development costs for secondary and BTVET, and is less than 10% of the total education budget over the projection period. This can only be achieved if pupil teacher ratios at secondary increase, curriculum reform takes place to adapt to the needs of expanded groups of pupils, and expansion is concentrated in general secondary schools rather than high cost BTVET institutions. Teacher training needs to be scaled down to reflect demand which could create savings which would reduce financing gaps.

121

Case 3: Nine Year Basic Education In Rwanda

The Government of Rwanda (GOR) has committed itself to providing 9 years basic education to meet its aspiration to expand access to lower secondary education for all Rwandan children over time. At the heart of this commitment is the desire to ensure that all children, irrespective of socio-economic background, have access to a minimum level of education that provides basic skills and knowledge for useful citizenship, and provides the foundation for post-basic education. “The government’s primary objective in vision 2020 for education is to provide Universal Primary Education (UPE – grades 1 through 6) by 2010 and subsequently Basic Education (grades 1 through 9 for all (EFA) by 2015” – Education Sector Policy 2002 plan (amended April 2003)”. The GOR also sees the move towards 9-year basic education as part of its poverty reduction strategy, designed to build on and complement that achievement of gender equitable primary schooling. The Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) gives priority to the development of primary education in the Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP). Much remains to be achieved. Repetition and drop out in primary is a very serious problem and may not fall as planned, quality and achievement are very varied and far from satisfactory, classrooms and learning material need further investment, double shift schools constitute over 85% of schools at grades 1-3. The development of Nine Year Basic Education must protect the gains made so far and ensure that improvements in access, participation and completion continue. This implies continued prioritization of the sector such that about 50% of educational resources are available to primary, pupil teacher ratios can be diminished to allow reductions in double shifting, investments in learning material occur to increase the number of books per child to at least 1:3 in core subjects within a developmental curriculum, teacher training and support in-service is enhanced, and physical infrastructure is improved in quality and quantity. Double shifting is a particular issue since it is concentrated amongst the youngest pupils who are most at risk of premature drop out and repetition, and who may also experience the least qualified teachers at a time when their learning needs, and their capacity to learn, are probably greatest. It may have a different impact on boys and girls whose responsibilities outside the school vary. This is both a curriculum issue (curricula have to be such that they can be taught successfully to at least 80% of pupils under the conditions that actually exist), and one of physical capacity. Previous plans have assumed double shifting continues at current levels. If it does repetition and drop are unlikely to fall, and the least qualified teachers will continue to have the highest workloads. If the pupil teacher ratio can be lowered to 45:1 and feasible investment in classroom building made over a ten year period, double shifting could be considerably reduced with benefits for time on task, more attention to learners needs, and higher learning quality learning leading to less repetition (see Annex 5). Total numbers of children in primary schools are likely to fall between 2005 and 2015, after which they will begin to increase again at the rate of population growth amongst six year olds. This is a window of opportunity to improve the quality of access.

122

Expansion at Tronc Commun level depends on the quality and quantity of primary school graduates. Thus the rate at which Tronc Commun should grow has to be balanced against the continuing needs for development at primary level. Very rapid growth at Tronc Commun in advance of secure gains in primary schooling may not be the best option. Growth rates have to be matched to realistic assessments of priorities and benefits related to exclusion and poverty reduction. Tronc Commun will grow, not least in response to the rising number of primary graduates. It should not grow so fast that resources are diverted from primary or that management capacity is over stretched and quality undermined. Baseline data have been drawn from GoR statistics and stated policy. They take into account:

• The need to reduce the primary pupil teacher ratio from 67:1 to 45:1 to reduce

double shifting in primary 1-3, and to maintain investment at primary at or around 50% of the recurrent budget

• The changing flow of primary pupils completing grade six assuming repetition and drop out fall.

• The demand for new secondary teachers, and the need to find an alternative method of training to the high cost, four year KIE programme

• The costs of fee free Tronc Commun, interpreted as a subsidy to schools of RWf 11,000 per child to replace the element currently paid privately

• Reductions in boarding at rates consistent with protecting vulnerable children and orphans

• Private secondary schooling growing at no more than 5% per year as a result of limited demand for unsubsidised places. Higher growth would not be constrained and may occur, but it would do so without further public subsidy.

• Gradual reduction in the share of the budget absorbed by higher education. This would limit the number of publicly sponsored students but would not inhibit the growth in the number of off-budget students financed in other ways.

• Classroom construction/new schools at an average of 4, 5 and 6 million RWf per furnished classroom at primary, Tronc Commun, and Upper Secondary respectively.

• A ceiling of 30% of government resources allocated to education • The need to consider the non-financial constraints on growth

The Central Projection creates a sustainable financing framework designed to maintain progress towards universal primary education with increased completion rates and reduced repetition and drop out, increased Tronc Commun gross enrolment rates from 20% to more than 45%, tripling number enrolled by 2015 (130,000 to over 400,000), and achieving transition rates into Tronc Commun above 75% by 201591. The costs of teacher training, a major constraint on growth at Tronc Commun, have been included. The assumption is that KIE enrolments remain at current levels which will be sufficient to meet demand for Upper Secondary teachers. Most training of new Tronc Commun teachers is planned to be conducted through Colleges of Education operating at less

91 The standard definition Transition rate = (Number in grade 6 – repeaters )/(entrants to S1 the following year) can create misleading results. It is likely to fall before increasing, unless S1 grows faster than primary output which is unlikely before 2010. To prevent it falling S1 would have to grow at over 30% a year in some years.

123

than RWf 300,000 per trainee per year, with one year training in College and one year in school. It has been assumed that subsidised boarding will be reduced to below 10% at Tronc Commun and below 20% at Upper Secondary. This creates savings of up to RWf 8.5 billion a year by 2015. Investment to improve quality at primary level will continue to bring the pupil teacher ratio down to 1:45. This is sufficient to minimise double shifting in grades 1-3 to below 15%, which is necessary if repetition is to reduce and drop out decline in the early grades. An additional RWf 1,500 capitation for learning materials has been included from 2005 to enhance quality improvement and move towards acceptable ratios of text books per child. The primary gross enrolment rate will fall to around 100% as overage pupils and repeaters are reduced92. Completion rates improve over the period but have to be interpreted with caution93. Classroom construction costs to achieve these outcomes at primary would be between RWf 4-6 billion a year, at costs per classroom of RWf 4,000,000. The number of new primary teachers needed falls from about 3,000 in the early years to average about 300 from 2011-2015. This will release capacity which may be used to train Tronc Commun teachers. The resources available for the Central Projection are financed by 30% of government resources allocated to education and external resource flows. The projection identifies the gaps between recurrent domestic resources and expenditure with and without Fee Free Tronc Commun. Fee free subsidies at RWf 11,000 per pupil at Tronc Commun account for about RWf 1 billion rising to RWf 4 billion by 2015. Overall gaps are about RWf 16 billion for most of the projection period and fall towards 2015. This however does not take into account needs to invest in learning materials at Tronc Commun and above, or the possible impact on salaries of radically reducing the numbers of untrained teachers in secondary schools. It also assumes that subsidised boarding is reduced as planned and that the number of administrators is frozen at current levels. The gaps also depend on GOR revenues growing as anticipated in macro economic projections which indicate sustained increases at 5% a year that may not be realised. Construction costs increase from RWf 6 to 14 billion94 for the full programme and would be less if more modest targets for growth, the reduction of double shifting were adopted. If classroom building and furnishing costs were less than RWf 4, 5 an 6 million at primary Tronc Commun and Upper Secondary the amounts would fall correspondingly. Alternatively if high cost science, technology and vocational institutions were created then much more would be required. The main assumptions of the Central Projection are summarised below.

92 The primary GER can fall as the number of repeaters reduces. The NER should continue to increase. 93 Completion rates defined as (the number enrolled in grade 6 – repeaters)/(number of 12 year olds) can fall as the mix of overage pupils in grade 6 changes. This standard method of calculation can produce ambiguous results. An alternative method is to use Completion rate = (the number enrolled in grade 6 – repeaters)/(number of new entrants six years before). 94 This global figure does not separately account for rehabilitation of existing stock which would be an additional cost.

124

Assumptions – Central Projection Rwanda

• The number of primary grade 6 leavers will grow in line with the flow of current enrolments through primary school. These will rise sharply until 2010 as the wave of expanded numbers passes through. After this the number of grade 6 completers will stabilise.

• Primary teacher training needs to be sufficient to bring Pupil Teacher Ratios down from 67:1 to 45:1 before 2015. This would reduce the need for double shifting assuming new classroom space is created. Double shifting diminishes to below 15% by 2015.

• Secondary Form 1 places will grow at a rate determined by affordability within the resource envelop and the non-financial constraints of growth.. Expansion from 2005 increases entrants at between 8% a year, rising to 15% over the plan period for government and libre subsidie schools and 5% for private schools.

• Transition rates into Tronc Commun will evolve from their current levels to reach over 70% by 2015. In the short term they may fall as a result of the rapid increase in grade 6 completers in advance of expanded capacity. Transition from Tronc Commun to Upper Secondary will stabilise just below 40% as a result of limiting growth at this level in favour of expanded Tronc Commun.

• Gross enrolment rates at Tronc Commun will rise from below 20% to about 48% by 2015, and from 11% to 14% at Upper Secondary. This would require enrolments of 410,000 (a three fold increase) at TC and 114,000 (a 60% increase) by 2015.

• Most growth is assumed to be in government and libre subsidie schools as the costs of unsubsidised private education become an obstacle to the enrolment of those with low household incomes. The model assumes the sector grows at 5%.

• Teacher demand will be projected on the assumption that all new teachers will be qualified, and that unqualified teachers will be upgraded over time. This cannot be achieved at KIE training costs per trained teacher. It has therefore been assumed that KIE continues to recruit about 400 trainees a year (output after four years = 350), and that four Colleges of Education are established for secondary teacher training and staffed appropriately. This could take 3-5 years to come on stream before the period of high growth in Tronc Commun numbers, depending on recruitment of staff and availability of facilities. Without expanded capacity offering shorter (1+1 years) of training the proportion of untrained teachers will rise to over two thirds of all teachers at Tronc Commun, and class sizes will become excessive. 80% of secondary teachers are male and the proportion should be reduced.

• The costs of teacher training have been advanced over annual demand for new teachers to account for length of time it takes to produce a trained teacher (at least four years in KIE and 1+1 in a reformed TTC system).

• Attrition amongst secondary teachers is assumed at 5%, but may be higher and should be monitored.

• The Pupil Teacher Ratio at TC will remain at about 30:1 (class size 45); and 25:1 (class size 40) at upper secondary.

• The number of secondary administrators has been frozen at current levels • 5000 RWf per secondary child has been budgeted for learning material over and above

other costs in Scenarios 3 and 4. RWf 1500 is available for learning materials at primary in scenario 1 and RWf 3000 in scenario 2. Mechanisms have to be put in place to ensure the ratio of books per child in core subjects falls to acceptable levels

• The cost of fee free Tronc Commun has been separately estimated on the basis of a 11,000 RWf per child capitation to schools which would enable them to waive the equivalent of the day school fee. Boarding costs in excess of this would be met privately, though current food subsidies would continue for reduced numbers of boarders.

• Higher education expenditure has been stabilised between until 2015. This assumes that expansion will be financed off budget and that the number of publicly sponsored students will be restricted to n affordable level. Per student costs at University level appear to exceed those at school level by factor of 100 or more, making sustaining universal primary education expansion at lower secondary level contingent on budgetary restraint at higher

125

education level. • Classroom building and furnishing costs have been estimated at RWf RWf 3, 4 and 5

million in the base year for primary, Tronc Commun, and Upper Secondary. The procurement system needs to identify where additional classrooms are needed and where new schools need to be established on the basis of school mapping. Though some expansion may be accommodated in converted buildings this option will be exhausted in two or three years, and such building may not be located where they are needed. New build on a substantial scale is therefore needed in the medium term. A substantial number of primary classrooms will also need constructing.

• It is assumed that unit costs per child at secondary fall as a result of reduced boarding. In Troc Commun the number of places is reduced by 2015 to about 25,000, and 14,000 at Upper Secondary. This should be sufficient to absorb essential boarding and accommodate vulnerable children.

• Expansion of Tron Commun should address the imbalance of boys and girls entering government and libre subsidie institutions though due attention to location, safety, and facilities including boarding.

• The model assumes repetition rates reduce to 5% or below in primary and secondary with minimal drop out. This requires attention to school management and learning quality if such reductions are not to result in lowered achievement.

• It is assumed that the resources available grow in line with macro economic projections and government priorities to increase the share of domestic resources allocated to education to 30% by 2015. This yields an envelop rising from about 25 billion RWf in 2004 to nearly RWf 70 billion by 2015. Additional expenditure would need to be met from external resources.

Enrolments Total primary enrolment is projected to remain stable until about 2009, after which it will fall as a result of reduced entry rates into grade 1, and reduced repetition. After 2015 growth will return to the rate of population growth for 6 years olds – about 2.2% a year. Gross enrolment rates at primary will fall as overage and repeating pupils diminish.

It will be possible to reduce double shifting in primary to less than 15% by 2015 if the assumptions of the Central Projection are realised.

Total Primary Enrolment

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total PrimaryEnrolment

Gross Enrolment Rate Primary

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GER1

126

The number of grade 6 pupils completing (enrolment – repeaters) will rise rapidly until 2010 if repetition and drop out rates fall. Enrolments in S1 of Tronc Commun are projected to grow at between 7% and 12% a year in the Central Projection. Higher rates would require a much greater supply of teachers and classrooms and face non-financial constraints. Transition rates will fall then recover.

Enrolments in Tronc Commun in all schools will rise three times to reach 410,000 by 2015. Upper secondary is planned not to expand substantially until after 2015. The number of new primary teachers needed to keep pace with this growth and reduce the primary pupil teacher ratio to 45:1 averages 2,800 a year until 2010 after which if falls to less than 1,000 once 1:45 has been achieved.

At Tronc Commun level significant growth in teacher output is needed that cannot be achieved through the Kigali Institute of Education programmes at current cost levels. The projection assumes that KIE output remains at about 350 a year, and National Colleges of Education are established to train Tronc Commun teachers.

Enrolment Growth Secondary

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total TCTotal Upper Secondary

Double Shift Rate in Grades 1-3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary Completers 2004 and S1 Entrants 2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary completersOverall selected

Number of New Teachers Needed

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of NewTeachersNeeded

127

The cost of training secondary teachers is mostly in KIE (RWf 1.5-2 billion per year) though the output is only about 350. National Colleges of Education could provide the numbers needed for Tronc Commun expansion at much lower costs with much greater output – by 2015 eight times the KIE output for a little over half the cost.

Cost per pupil at primary would rise reflecting reduced pupil teacher ratios and quality inputs. Costs at Tronc Commun and Upper Secondary would fall as subsidised boarding was reduced. The ratio of unit costs of Tronc Commun to primary would fall from about 5:1 to 2:1 making expanded secondary more affordable. Recurrent expenditure on primary would rise to about RWf 35 billion by 2015. Higher education public expenditure would be stable. By 2015 Tronc Commun would approach the value of the higher education budget at around RWf 12 billion (and exceed it if it were fee free).

Budget shares for primary would be maintained at about 50%. Higher education would decline from over 30% to less than 20%. Tronc Commun and Upper Secondary would rise from 16% to 23% dependent on large reductions in non teaching salary costs at secondary. KIE would continue to absorb most expenditure on teacher education, with a small output.

Total Trained Secondary Teachers Needed to be Posted Each Year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numberproduced byKIE

CoE OutputNeeded

Plus 1600 Untrained Teachers to be Upgraded

KIE Output

College of Education Output Needed

Public Costs Per Pupil Per Year (RWf)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Overall PrimaryUnit Cost(RWf)

Overall TroncCommun UnitCost (RWf)

Overall UpperSecondary UnitCost (RWf)

Number and Cost of New Teachers

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Out

put (

Num

ber)

and

Cos

t (R

Wf m

illio

ns)

Output of KIE

Annual Cost ofKIE Training

CoE OutputNeeded

Cost of CoEPlaces for TC

Expenditure by Sub Sector % (RWf Billions)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary recurrentLower secondary (Excl TTCs)Upper secondaryHE (incl expat sals)Teacher training KIETeacher Training Sec CoE

128

Education would take about 30% of domestic resources by 2015 and about 5% of GDP. This assumes GDP growth of 5% and revenue growth to 14% of GDP.

Overall educational expenditure would reach RWf 72 Billion of which as much as RWf 70 Billion might be available from domestic resources assuming economic growth remains on track. However there would be a financing gap averaging about RWf 16 billion until 2010. Fee free Tronc Commun would add between RWf 1 and 4 billion to the recurrent cost gap.

The number of new classrooms needed per year would be about 1,100 at primary assuming double shifting is to be reduced. At Tronc Commun 250 a year would be needed initially rising to about 1000 by 2015 if class sizes are not to rise above 45. Development expenditure to sustain the Central Projection needs to rise from RWf 6 billion to RWf 14 billion by 2015. Less would be needed if classroom construction costs were less than RWf 4, 5 and 6 million for primary, Tronc Commun and Upper Secondary. The expenditure needed averages about 20% of recurrent expenditure.

Budget Share %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Teacher Training Sec CoETeacher training KIEHES and TInformalUpper secondaryLower secondary Primary recurrentPreschool

Education as % GDP and % Govt Budget

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ed as % GDPEd as % of Domestic Resources

Expenditure and Gaps (Recurrent Only) Billions

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Ed Exp

Fee Free TC

EdResources

Gap cfDomesticResources

Gap withFee Free(day schoolcosts)

129

L/k Conclusion The broad conclusion is that the assumptions of the Central Projection lead to a financially sustainable outcome with considerable progress on Universalising Primary Education, and substantial expansion of access to Tronc Commun by 2015. Whether the outcomes can be achieved depends on whether the pattern of allocation of resources is realised, and whether the non-financial constraints on growth can be managed. It also depends on concerted action to reduce unit costs at secondary level without which expansion will be financially unsustainable.

Number of Classrooms Needed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average build peryear to meet 2015need

NumberClassrooms

NumberClassrooms

Development Budget Costs (RWf Millions)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cost ofPrimaryClassrooms

Cost of TCclassroomsGov andlibsub

Cost of USecClassrooms

Primary +TC + U Secwith nosubsidy toPrivate

130

References Adea-Mensah I Education in Ghana: A Tool for Social Mobility or Social Stratification? J B Danqah Memorial Lecture Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences April 2000 Akyeampong K 2005 Cost and Finance of Secondary Education in Ghana: A Situational Analysis.Commissioned Report for the Financing of Secondary Education in Africa Research Project (FINSEC) based at the Centre for International Education, University of Sussex, for the Secondary Education Initiative in Africa Programme of the World Bank Atchoarena D, Delluc M, 2001 Revisiting Technical and Vocational Education in Sub=Saharan Africa: An Update on Trends, Innovations and Challenges. International Institute of Educational Planning, Paris. Al-Samarrai S and Bennell P 2003 Where Has All the Education Gone in Africa? Employment Outcomes Among Secondary School and University Leavers. Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. Appleton S 2001 What Can We Expect of Universal Primary Education in Reinikka R and Collier P Uganda’s Recovery: The Role of Firms, Farms and Government, World Bank, Washington DC. Bennell P Bulwani G Musikanga M 2005 Costs and Financing of Secondary Education in Zambia: A Situational Analysis. Commissioned Report for the Financing of Secondary Education in Africa Research Project (FINSEC) based at the Centre for International Education, University of Sussex, for the Secondary Education Initiative in Africa Programme of the World Bank Bray M 1995 Double Shift Schooling: Design and Operation for Cost Effectiveness.\ International Institute for Educational Planning, Paris/ Commonwealth Secretariat, London. Bray M 1997 Community Financing of Education in Colclough C (ed) Marketizing Education and Health in Developing Countries, Clarendon Press, Oxford. Bregman, Jacob (2004). Trends in secondary education in OECD countries. Paper presented at Second Conference on secondary education in Africa. Dakar 2004. Bregman, Jacob and Karen Bryner, (2003). Quality of Secondary Education in Africa. Paper presented at the biennial meeting Association for the Development of Education in Africa (ADEA). Mauritius December 3-6, 2003. available at http://www.adeanet.org/biennial2003/papers/7A_Bregman_ENG.pdf Bregman, Jacob and Simonnet, Geraldine (2004). “Back to the Blackboard: “Looking beyond Primary Education In Africa.” South African Institute of International Affairs, NEPAD Policy Focus series, NEPAD, August 2004. Also available at: http://www0.un.org/depts/dhl/children_day/toc/toc3.pdf Briseid, Ole and Francoise Caillods (2004) Trends in Secondary Education in Industrialized Countries: Are they relevant for African countries? Policies and Strategies in Secondary Education. IIEP, Unesco Paris. Buchan, A., Foster, D., Ibale, A., Read, T, 2002 The Provision of Instructional Materials to secondary Institutions in Uganda, Report to Uganda MoES, Kampala, 2002. Bude U and Lewin K M 1997, Improving Test Design: Constructing Tests, Analysing Results and Improving Assessment Quality in Primary Schools in Africa: Volume 1 pp236; Volume 2 pp490 Deutsche Stiftung für Internationale Entwicklung, Bonn. ISBN 3-931227-29-4 Chimombo J, Dzimadzi C, Kunje D, Lewin K M 2003 The Development of the Private Sector Providers of Educational Services in Malawi; Panacea or Problem. Report , Private Sector and Skills for Development Project (PRISED) based at the Centre for International Education, University of Sussex, for DFID.

http://www0.un.org/depts/dhl/children_day/toc/toc3.pdf

131

Colclough C 1997 Introduction in Colclough C (ed) Marketizing Education and Health in Developing Countries, Clarendon Press, Oxford. Colclough C. with Lewin K M, 1993 Educating All the Children; Strategies for Primary Education in Developing Countries. Oxford University Press. 328pp. Debourou D and Gnimadi, A with Caillods, F and Abraham K 2005 Costs and Financing of Secondary Education in Benin – A Situational Analysis. Commissioned Report for the Financing of Secondary Education in Africa Research Project (FINSEC) based at the Centre for International Education, University of Sussex, for the Secondary Education Initiative in Africa Programme of the World Bank Gill I, Fluitman F, and Dar A, 2000. Vocational Education and training Reform: Matching Skills to Markets and Budgets. World Bank, Washington and the International Labour Organisation, Geneva. Gregson S., H. Waddell, and S. Chandiwana. 2000. School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from harmony to discord. Journal of International Development. HSRC (Human Sciences Research Council 2005, Supply of and Demand for Educators in the South African Public Schools System. HSRC, Pretoria, South Africa. Institute of Education, 2005 Learning and Teaching in Multigrade Settings http://k1.ioe.ac.uk/multigrade/ Johanson R K Adams, A V 2004 Skills Development in Sub Saharan Africa. Regional and Sectoral Studies, World Bank, Washington Kadzamira E, Choonzi R, Hiddleston P 1995, An Evaluation of the Secondary School Double Shift Pilot Schools. Centre for Educational Research and Training, Zomba, Malawi. Knight J and Sabot R 1990 Education, Productivity and Inequality: The East African Natural Experiment. OUP Lassibille, G., J.-P. Tan, et al. 2000. Expansion of private secondary education: Lessons from recent experience in Tanzania. Comparative Education Review 44(1): 1-28. Lewin K M 2006a The Limits to Growth of Non-Government Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa in Walford G and Srivastava P 'Private Schools in Developing Countries' published by Symposium Books, London Lewin K M 2006b Planning for Secondary Expansion in Sub Saharan Africa – Key Issues for Sustainable Growth in Access. Perspectives in Education Vol 24(2), June 2006 Lewin K M 2006c Costs and Finance of Multigrade – How Do the Books Balance? in Little A W (2006) Education for All: The Challenge of Mulitigrade Teaching. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands Lewin K M and Akyeampong K 2005 Mapping Ways Forward: Planning for Nine year Basic Education in Rwanda. CfBT/DFID, Kigali. Lewin K M 2003 Projecting Secondary School Expansion in Tanzania: The Art of the Possible. Conference on Secondary Education Development, Arusha September 2003 Ministry of Education and Culture and World Bank, Washington Lewin K M 2002 Options for Post Primary Education and Training in Uganda, Increasing Access, Equity and Efficiency – A Framework for Policy. Ministry of Education and Sports, Kampala for EFAG/DFID available at http://www.sussex.ac.uk/education/1-4-7-3.html Lewin K M 2000 Linking Science Education to Labour Markets: Issues and Strategies. World Bank Human Development Network; Secondary Education Series. World Bank Washington Lewin K M and Sayed Y 2005 Non-government Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa. Exploring the Evidence in South Africa and Malawi. Researching the Issues, DFID London.

http://k1.ioe.ac.uk/multigrade/

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/education/1-4-7-3.html

132

Lewin K M Stuart J S 2003 Researching Teacher Education: New Perspectives on Practice, Performance and Policy UK Department for International Development, Research Series Monograph. Website edition http://www.sussex.ac.uk/usie/muster/index.html Lewin K M, Caillods F 2001 Financing Secondary Education in Developing Countries; Strategies for Sustainable Growth. International Institute for Educational Planning, Paris. Lewin K M Dunne M 2000 Policy and Practice in Assessment in Anglophone Africa: Does Globalisation Explain Convergence? Assessment in Education, 7:3 Mingat A 2004 Questions de Soutenabilité Financière Concernant le Dévelopment de l’Ensignement Secondaire dans le pays d’Afrique Subsahaienne. SEIA Background Paper. World Bank, Washington. Ministry of Education and Culture, Tanzania 2001 Tracer Study of Graduates from the Faculty of Education. Dar Es Salaam Ndoye M 2003 Opening Speech, First Regional Conference on Secondary Education in Africa (SEIA), Kampala, Uganda, June 2003 organised by the World Bank, ADEA and AED and hosted by the Ministry of Education and Sports, Government of Uganda. http://www.worldbank.org/afr/seia/ Ottevanger W et al 2004, Science, Mathematics and ICT in Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Report to the SEIA, AFTHD, World Bank, Washington Rose P 2003 Private Post Basic Education: Evidence from East and Southern Africa. Commissioned Review the Private Sector and Skills for Development Project (PRISED) based at the Centre for International Education, University of Sussex, for DFID. UNAIDS 2000 Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic. UNAIDS, Geneva UNESCO 2000 Dakar Framework for Action: Education for All; Meeting our Collective Commitments. UNESCO; Paris; 2000 United Nations 2000 The Millenium Development Goals. Website: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ Wood, A and Mayer, J 1999 Africa’s Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective Institute of Development Studies University of Sussex Wood, A and Ridao-Cano, C 1996 Skill, Trade and International Inequality. Institute of Development Studies Working Paper 47, Sussex World Bank 2005 Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies for Young People: A New Agenda for Secondary Education. World Bank, Washington DC World Bank 2002 Education and HIV/AIDS: A Window of Hope World Bank, Washington DC World Bank 1999 World Development Report: Knowledge for Development. World Bank, Washington DC World Bank 1993 The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, World Bank, Washington DC World Bank Institute 2004 Teacher Effectiveness: Multigrade Teaching as a Policy Option. See http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/WBI/WBIPROGRAMS/EDUCATIONLP. Institute of Education, 2005 Learning and Teaching in Multigrade Settings http://k1.ioe.ac.uk/multigrade/ Case Study Reports

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/WBI/WBIPROGRAMS/EDUCATIONLP

http://k1.ioe.ac.uk/multigrade/

133

1. Debourou D and Gnimadi, A with Caillods, F and Abraham K 2005. Costs and Financing of Secondary Education in Benin – A Situational Analysis. 2. Akyeampong K 2005. Cost and Finance of Secondary Education in Ghana: A Situational Analysis. 3. Bennell P Bulwani G Musikanga M 2005. Costs and Financing of Secondary Education in Zambia: A Situational Analysis. Sector Reports

1. Lewin K M and Akyeampong K, 2003, Mapping Ways Forward: Planning Nine year Basic Education in Rwanda. CfBT/DFID National Report

2. Lewin K M, Osaki K, 2003, Strategies for Increased Output of Secondary Teachers,

Secondary Education Development Porgramme Position Paper, Ministry of Education Dar-es-Salaam and World Bank

3. Lewin K M, 2003, Projecting Secondary Expansion in Tanzania; The Art of the Possible

Position Paper, Ministry of Education Dar-es-Salaam and World Bank

4. Lewin K M 2003, Some Teacher Training Issues in Tanzania Projecting Supply and Demand Position Paper, Ministry of Education Dar -es-Salaam and World Bank

5. Lewin K M 2003, Options for Post Primary Education and Training in Uganda: Increasing

Access, Equity and Efficiency. Ministry of Education and Sports, Uganda and DFID.

134

Back Cover page This is one of the eight thematic studies produced under the SEIA study initiative in the Africa Region of the World Bank (AFTHD). This is the thematic study report on cost and financing options for the expansion of access and quality improvement of Secondary Education In Africa (SEIA). Sustainable cost and financing of the education sector represent one of the major challenges for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Region. Scenarios need to take into account that public budget constraints will remain the rule rather than the exception for the coming years. To pay for expansion of access and, simultaneously, improvement of quality of learning outcomes, countries will need to show economic growth and social and political stability. In addition, pressure on the demand side is mounting as a result of the success of the primary EFA program in many African countries. Parents increasingly see the advantage of keeping their children longer in school to acquire the basic competencies for productive citizenship and family welfare. The SEIA work program is conducted by the Human Development Department of the Africa Region of the World Bank with teams of African and international educators from the SSA countries. The program's main objective is to assist Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to better respond to the increasing demand for more and better secondary education and training as a result of changing labor market demands and a move toward Knowledge-based Economies in Africa. The thematic studies have all been contracted out to international consultant agencies and case-studies have been prepared with selected country teams. The various drafts of this thematic study were reviewed in the Bank and by country representatives during the SEIA regional conferences and workshops. Keith Lewin is Professor of International Education at the University of Sussex and Director of the Centre for International Education. He has worked widely in Sub Saharan Africa and Asia over the last 30 years for development agencies and national governments. His academic interests include educational policy, planning and finance, science education, teacher education, assessment and qualifications, and aid effectiveness. He has a long involvement with Education for All initiatives from co-convened Round Table on Educational financing at Jomtien and on Expanding Access to Secondary Education at Dakar. Since 2000 he has developed the plans to finance expanded secondary schooling in Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, completed the Multi-Site Teacher Education Project, and contributed analytic studies on the role of the private sector in supporting expanded access. He currently directs the DFID Research Consortium for Research on Educational Access Transitions and Equity (CREATE) and is President of the British Association of International and Comparative Education. His books include Educational Innovation in Developing Countries, Doing Educational Research in Developing Countries, Educating All the Children, Financing Secondary Education, Researching Teacher Education, Science Education and Development, and Non-Government Schooling in Sub Saharan Africa. Professor Keith M Lewin; Director, Centre for International Education University of Sussex, Falmer, East Sussex, BN1 9QQ Tel Office: 44 (0)1273 678970; CIE Office: 44(01273 678464 http://www.sussex.ac.uk/education/1-4-21.html www.create-rpc.org

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/education/1-4-21.html

Documents

Seeking Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa Public ...documents.worldbank.org/.../pdf/588920NWP0no0110Box353823B01PUBLIC1.… · Sachiko Kataoke, David Levesque, Angela Little,