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SECURITIES INDUSTRY OUTLOOK BRIGHTENS IN 1Q 2001
Securities Industry Pre-Tax Profits
-2-10123456789
90:Q
1
91:Q
1
92:Q
1
93:Q
1
94:Q
1
95:Q
1
96:Q
1
97:Q
1
98:Q
1
99:Q
1
00:Q
1
$ Billions
Inside RESEARCH REPORTS Securities Industry Outlook Brightens in 1Q 2001 ...................................... 1 Update on Market Structure Issues ............................................................. 7 Data Vendors: Challenges and Opportunities ............................................... 9 The New Basel Capital Accord: An Overview .............................................. 15 Monthly Statistical Review ....................................................................... 16
2
Securities Industry Interest Expense
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90:Q1 91:Q1 92:Q1 93:Q1 94:Q1 95:Q1 96:Q1 97:Q1 98:Q1 99:Q1 00:Q1
$ Billions
3
Average Daily Ticket Volume
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-'01
Source: DTCC
4
Intra-Day and Inter-Day Price Volatility for the Nasdaq Composite Index
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
De c-99
Ja n-00
Fe b-00
M ar-00
Ap r-00
M ay -00
Ju n-00
Ju l-00
Au g -00
Se p-00
Oct-00
No v-00
De c-00
Inter Intra
Percent
Source: Nasdaq
5
Securities Industry Total Compensation
0
5
10
15
20
25
90:Q
1
91:Q
1
92:Q
1
93:Q
1
94:Q
1
95:Q
1
96:Q
1
97:Q
1
98:Q
1
99:Q
1
00:Q
1
$ Billions
Thousands
U.S. Securities Industry Employment
66 5 66 3 66 767 2
67 768 7
69 9 70 1 69 770 270 9 71 3 71 4 71 9
72 4 72 873 3
74 575 7
76 1 76 1 76 576 7 77 2 77 2
6 0 0
6 3 0
6 6 0
6 9 0
7 2 0
7 5 0
7 8 0
J -9 9
M M J S N J -0 0
M M J S N J
6
7
UPDATE ON MARKET STRUCTURE ISSUES
Decimals Update
Nasdaq
Listed Securities
8
T + 1 Settlement Update Market Data Update
Disclosure Rules Update
9
DATA VENDORS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Highlights From SIA’s Market Data Conference, January 31, 2001
10
11
12
13
14
15
THE NEW BASEL CAPITAL ACCORD: AN OVERVIEW
16
MONTHLY STATISTICAL REVIEW
U.S. Equity Market Activity
Index(12/31/99 = 100)
Daily Stock Price Movements(Indexed to 12/31/99)
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
1 10
1 20
1 30
D-99 J -00 F -0 0 M -0 0 A-00 M -0 0 J -00 J -00 A-00 S-0 0 O-0 0 N-00 D-01 J -01
Na s d a qDJ IAS&P5 00
(Mils. Of Shs.)
Average Daily Share Volume
02 505 007 50
1 ,0 001 ,2 501 ,5 001 ,7 502 ,0 002 ,2 502 ,5 00
J -9 9
F M A M J J A S O N D J -0 0
F M A M J J A S O N D J -0 1
Nasd aq
NYSE
($Billions)
Average Daily Dollar Volume
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 00
1 20
J -9 9
F M A M J J A S O N D J -0 0
F M A M J J A S O N D J -0 1
Nasd aq
NYSE
17
U.S. Underwriting Activity
Short vs. Long-Term Interest Rates
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
J-99
F M A M J J A S O N D J-00
F M A M J J A S O N D J-01
3-Mo T-Bill
30-Yr T re asury
(Percent)
($ Billions)
Total Underwriting
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
J -9 9
M M J S N J -0 0
M M J S N J -0 1
Eq u ityDe b t
1 6 6
2 2 1
1 9 61 9 51 8 3
1 6 41 4 9
1 6 5
1 1 3
1 4 4
9 9
1 6 1
1 8 5
1 6 4
2 0 6
1 3 21 4 9
1 7 4
1 4 61 4 71 6 9
1 4 81 3 0
1 0 4
1 9 5
Corporate Debt Underwriting
0
4 0
8 0
1 2 0
1 6 0
2 0 0
2 4 0
J -9 9
M M J S N J -0 0
M M J S N J -0 1
C o n v e rtsA s se t-B ac k e dStra ig h t D e b t
1 5 6
2 0 41 8 41 8 2
1 6 11 4 9
1 4 41 4 01 5 4
1 1 6
9 2 8 6
1 4 51 5 4
1 7 8
1 0 8
1 4 01 5 7
1 3 31 2 9
1 5 8
1 1 2
1 3 4
1 0 0
1 8 7
($ Billions)
18
($ Billions)
Equity Underwriting
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
J -9 9
M M J S N J -0 0
M M J S N J -0 1
IPOsPreferredsFollow-ons
16.513.8
22.1
15.3
19.5
8.6
11.4
20.7
28.7
12.915.8
31.228.3
17.6
10.9
18.4
12.4 13.2
17.9
8.6
23.8
13.0
4.97.4
10.8
IPO Activity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
J-99
F M A M J J A S O N D J-00
F M A M J J A S O N D J-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90$ Vo lume# De als
$ Volume ($Bils.)
# of Deals
Common Stock Follow-On Deals
0
5
10
15
20
25
J-99
F M A M J J A S O N D J-00
F M A M J J A S O N D J-01
0
20
40
60
80
100$ Volu me# Deals
$ Volume ($Bils.)
# of Deals
