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SECOND LAW OF POPULATIONS:. Population growth cannot go on forever. - P. Turchin 2001 (Oikos 94:17-26). !?. The Basic Mathematics of Density Dependence: The Logistic Equation. How does population growth change as numbers in the population change?. We can start with the equation for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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SECOND LAW OF POPULATIONS:
Population growth cannot go on forever
- P. Turchin 2001 (Oikos 94:17-26)
!?
The Basic Mathematics of Density Dependence:The Logistic Equation
We can start with the equation for exponential growth….
How does population growth changeas numbers in the population change?
dN/dt = rN
Recall the definition of r
dN/dt = rN … r is a growth rate, or thedifference between birth and death rate
So, we can write, dN/dt = (b-d)N
For the exponential equation, these birth
and death rates are constants…What if they change as a function of
population size?
We can rewrite the exponential rate equation
Let b’ and d’ represent birth and death ratesthat are NOT constant through time
So, dN/dt = (b’- d’)N
Modeling these variables…. The simplestcase is to allow them to be linear
Linear relationship:
Let b’ = b - aN and Let d’ = d - cN
N
b’
The intercept: b
The slope: a
What happens if...
The values of a or c equal zero?
This demonstrates that the exponentialequation is a special case of thelogistic equation….
Rearranging the equation...
The Carrying Capacity, K
•Definitions
•Issues
Assumptions of the logistic model
Logistic Growth, Continous Time
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dN/dt
Rate of change and actual population size
What if we do have time lags?
Biologically realistic, after all (consider thestage models we’ve been working with)
What happens?
Other forms of density dependence
•Ricker model
•Beverton-Holt model
Both of these originally developed for fisheries;many more possibilities exist.
Nt+1 = Ntexp[R*(K-Nt)/K]
Nt+1 = Nt * (1 + R) 1+(R/K)*Nt
The Allee EffectMinimum density required to maintain the
population
•Defense or vigilance
•Foraging efficiency
•Mating
James F. ParnellGary Kramer
SUMMARY
•When density affects demographic rates,“density dependence”
•Many ways to model this mathematically:Logistic (linear)RickerBeverton-Holt
•In constant environment, population willstabilize at carrying capacity
SUMMARY, continued
•Unlike with density-independent models, thediscrete and continuous forms are NOTequivalent in behavior
•Discrete form can exhibit damped oscillations,stable limit cycles, or chaos
•Carrying capacity has multiple definitions,biological reality must be considered
SUMMARY, continued
Allee effect: important implications formanagement and conservation
SECOND LAW OF POPULATIONS:they can’t grow forever…