SECOND EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND SEISMOLOGY ISTANBUL | Turkey | Aug. 25-29,...
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SECOND EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND SEISMOLOGY ISTANBUL | Turkey | Aug. 25-29, 2014 Feasibility study of a nation-wide Early Warning
SECOND EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND
SEISMOLOGY ISTANBUL | Turkey | Aug. 25-29, 2014 Feasibility study
of a nation-wide Early Warning System: the application of the EEW
software PRESTo on the Italian Strong Motion Network (RAN) Matteo
Picozzi, Aldo Zollo, Luca Elia, Claudio Martino, Piero Brondi,
Simona Colombelli, Antonio Emolo, Gaetano Festa, and Sandro
Marcucci
Slide 2
Worldwide EEWS At the nation-wide scale, the Japanese system
uses ~1,000 seismic instruments across Japan, 200 operated by JMA
and 800 by NIED, and integrates methodologies developed by JMA and
NIED
Slide 3
272 272 Free Field Stations: Force Balance 3-C. Accelerometer
18 bit digitizer GSM modem PGA via SMS 272 272 Free Field Stations:
Force Balance 3-C. Accelerometer 18 bit digitizer GSM modem PGA via
SMS ~ 500 ~ 500 Digital Strong Motion Stations: Local Storage on
PCMCIA disk GSM / GPRS Modem to send waveforms cut between
triggering and de-triggering Trigger at 0.1% g acceleration or on
STA/LTA threshold (newer stations) Message containing PGA within 5
min. ~ 500 ~ 500 Digital Strong Motion Stations: Local Storage on
PCMCIA disk GSM / GPRS Modem to send waveforms cut between
triggering and de-triggering Trigger at 0.1% g acceleration or on
STA/LTA threshold (newer stations) Message containing PGA within 5
min. 192 192 Stations in Cabins Force Balance 3-C. Accelerometer 24
bit digitizer GPRS router. No wait for coda to send data. PGA via
e-mail 192 192 Stations in Cabins Force Balance 3-C. Accelerometer
24 bit digitizer GPRS router. No wait for coda to send data. PGA
via e-mail RAN RAN RAN + ISNet RAN + ISNet Seismicity Seismicity
The Italian Strong Motion Network (RAN) 3
Slide 4
Feasibility of EW in Italy based on RAN Working hypotheses:
-RAN in its actual configuration is upgraded to operate in
real-time mode -Telemetry and data processing delays (1+1 sec) are
those measured at ISNET using PRESTo Working hypotheses: -RAN in
its actual configuration is upgraded to operate in real-time mode
-Telemetry and data processing delays (1+1 sec) are those measured
at ISNET using PRESTo
Slide 5
An integrated software platform for real data processing and
seismic alert notification An integrated software platform for real
data processing and seismic alert notification Automatic procedures
for the probabilistic and evolutionary estimation of source
parameters and prediction of ground motion shaking. Automatic
procedures for the probabilistic and evolutionary estimation of
source parameters and prediction of ground motion shaking.
Automatic Picking RT Earthquake Location RT Magnitude Estimation
PGx Prediction at Targets Satriano & Elia (2010). PRESTo, the
earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts,
capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng PLUS
http://www.prestoews.org/
Slide 6
from INGV (http://esse1- gis.mi.ingv.it/ s1_en.php)
Slide 7
3 stations6 stations Time of first alert between 4 and 12 sec
Time of first alert between 5 and 15 sec
Slide 8
3 stations6 stations Blind Zone radius between 30 and 49 km
Blind Zone Radius between 35 and 57 km To compute the BZ radius:
P-arrival time, P-wave time window, average telemetry and
computation times at ISNET.
Slide 9
DM defined as the PGV+ corresponding to the Instr.Int. VII
class from Faccioli & Cauzzi (2006) Municipalities EWZ (PGV
aver.) Lead-time 15.9 s EWZ (PGV+1) Lead-time 33.6 s EWZ (PGV-1)
Lead-time 5.8 s BZ
Slide 10
RTLOC RTMAG 40 EQs, Mw4.5, 2002-2013 from ITACA 2.0
(http://itaca.mi.ingv.it; Luzi et al., 2008; Pacor et al., 2011)
Using 3 stations M < 0.5 T 1st Alert Error on hypocenteral
location
Slide 11
16921 hypothetical seismic sources (0.05x0.05) spacing For each
node, the P-wave arrival times at 3 stations, are extracted
assuming a gaussian reading error of 1 second Average Performance
at National scale over 10 runs
Slide 12
Performance at the National scale using 3 stations Percentage
of successes (M est M true 0.5) at a national scale, using the
first 3 stations. At each node : 10 simulated sequences in 50 years
with 5 M max Percentage of successes (M est M true 0.5) at a
national scale, using the first 3 stations. At each node : 10
simulated sequences in 50 years with 5 M max
Slide 13
This study does not include the EW operability, which asks for
massive experimental testing and close involvement of end-users The
analysis of historical earthquake recordings and synthetics
suggests that the integration of the RAN and PRESTo in an EEWS can
provide, especially for the higher seismic hazard areas, reliable
alert messages within about 5-10 seconds Expected errors on
location and magnitude estimation,although large, are acceptable
for peak ground motion predictions. The RAN seems to have the
potential for a Nation-wide EEWS, but: The Communication Network
Needs to be Expanded and Improved A Blind Zone extent of 30km is
not acceptable for M 6 eqks The station density must be increased
and onsite method should be used This study does not include the EW
operability, which asks for massive experimental testing and close
involvement of end-users The analysis of historical earthquake
recordings and synthetics suggests that the integration of the RAN
and PRESTo in an EEWS can provide, especially for the higher
seismic hazard areas, reliable alert messages within about 5-10
seconds Expected errors on location and magnitude
estimation,although large, are acceptable for peak ground motion
predictions. The RAN seems to have the potential for a Nation-wide
EEWS, but: The Communication Network Needs to be Expanded and
Improved A Blind Zone extent of 30km is not acceptable for M 6 eqks
The station density must be increased and onsite method should be
usedConclusionsConclusions Thanks for your attention
Slide 14
For a given earthquake source and the closest RAN stations, the
peak displacement (PD) is randomly extracted from the PD-M
relationship. Example for the 50 years EQ. sequences at the node of
the 1980 Irpinia event PD valuesInput vs EEW M values Average RTMag
success, false, and missed rate (in %) for the four MZ in case
three stations are used. Success: M est M true 0.5 False: M est
>M true + 0.5 Missed: M est M true + 0.5 Missed: M est