Seatember '89 - IIASA · by the Beijer Institute (see box), together with current and projected pollutant deposition patterns (ob- tained using RAINS) to map those forest areas that

Seatember '89

IASA books may be ordered from your ,cal bookseller- or directly from- the

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systems: Theory Software and Ap- plications. A. Lewandowski and A.P. Wierzbicki, eds., Springer-Verlag,

989, 409 pp, ISBN 3-540-51213-6; v-387-512196. Methodology and Software for Interac- t i ~ t Decision Suppart. A. Lewandow~ki and E, Rrnhbcv, ads., Sptinp-Vetlag,

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OPTIONS Advisory Committee: A. Kurz- hanski, B . Do&, F. Schmidt-Bleek. W. Lutz, K . Fedra. T . Vasko, J.-G. Carrier.

OPTIONS is produced quarterly by IIASA, the lnternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Copyright @ 1989 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Telephone (02236) 71521 0; Telex 079137; Telefax (02236) 71313

Managing Editor: Paul Weaver Information: Sebouh Baghdoyan DesignIGraphics: Martin Schobel Photographs: Franz Karl Nebuda Typography: Linda Foith Printed by: St. Gabriel. M6dling

IlASA is an international research insti- tution, which draws on the scientific and financial resources of member organizations in 16 countries to address problems of global significance.

I t has four established research Programs. continually updated to target on emerging issues in areas of major international concern.

Environment * Technology, Economy, and Society

System and Decision Sciences * Population

National Member Organizations

Austria - The Austrian Academy o f Sci- ences; Bulgaria - The National Com- mittee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management; Canada - The Canadian Committee for IIASA; Czechoslovakia - The Committee for IlASA of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic; Fin- land - The Finnish Committee for IIASA; France - The French Associ- ation for the Development o f Systems Analysis; German Democratic Republic - The Academy of Sciences o f the German Democratic Republic; Federal Republic o f Germany - The Association for the Advancement of IIASA; Hungary - The Hungarian Committee for Applied Sys- tems Analysis; Italy - The National Research Council; Japan - The Japan Committee for IIASA; Netherlands - The Foundation IIASA-Netherlands; Poland- The Polish Academy of Sciences; Sweden - The Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research; Union o f So- viet Socialist Republics - The Academy of Sciences o f the Union o f Soviet Social- ist Republics; United States o f America - The American Academy o f Arts and Sciences.

C oncern for deforestation is voiced mainly over the direct

destruction o f tropical rain forests by logging and burning. In fragile tropical ecosystems, deforest at ion sets in motion rapid change - soil erosion, loss o f habitat and species, changed water regimes, and alter- ations t o the carbon cycle. These changes permanently diminish the productive potential o f ecosystems, both local and global.

But as research progresses, i t becomes apparent that the danger t o forest is as much f rom acid rain and climate change as i t is f rom

axe and fire. Moreover, these threats t o forest are less visible, more difficult precisely t o establish, and less amenable t o control than the more direct assaults - and they broaden the extent o f the forest zones under threat f rom the tropics through temperate regions t o the circumpolar belt o f boreal forest. From one source or another, trees everywhere are under attack.

This far-reaching assault on the world's trees comes at a t ime when the multiple significance o f forests in preserving ecological balance is only beginning t o be realized. I t is not just that trees are important regulators o f atmospheric carbon dioxide and, therefore, that the burning o f forests contributes t o global warming. I t is that trees, which may be a factor in causing climate change, are also susceptible t o such change. In some regions, positive feedback threat- ens self-sustaining and accelerating processes toward, at least tempo- rary, deforestation. This issue o f OPTIONS focuses on IIASA's pio- neering work in this area - work aimed at better understanding forest systems as a basis for establishing precisely the risks being taken and for tabling viable policy proposals.

Robert H. Pry, Director

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Atmospheric Pollution Attacks Europe's Forests 4 Climate Changes Could Ki l l Boreal Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Forest Dieback if Climate Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Interview: Dr . Maurice Strong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ResearchIFeedback . . . 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conference Corner . . . 16

News . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Options, September 89

I

I IASA scientists work to establish air pollution risks t o European timber supplies

A t a recent meeting o f the InterAction Council in Poland,

Professor Sten Nilsson o f IIASA's Forest Study (part o f the Biosphere Dynamics Project o f the Environ- ment Program) urged formulation o f a convention concerning forest decline in Europe. This recom- mendation comes in response to growing concern about damage to European forests attributed t o air pollution and as a result o f intensive collaboration between IIASA's Transboundary Air Pollu- tion Project and the Forest Study in efforts t o quantify the problem.

Combining its unique database on forest resources in Europe (see box) with projections on forest soil acidification obtained using RAINS (IIASA's Regional Acidification In- formation and Simulation model), IIASA's Forest Study is quantifying the impact of air pollution on the forest resources of Europe. Some questions have already been an- swered. The work reveals 35% o f Europe's coniferous forest and 9% of its deciduous forest areas to be suffering levels o f nitrogen deposition (caused by NO, emissions) in excess o f critical levels established by the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE). In addition, 79% o f Europe's coniferous forest areas and 39% o f its deciduous forest areas currently suffer levels o f sulfur deposition in excess o f target loads set by the Beijer Institute.

Despite current agreements on reducing emissions levels, the area of forest likely t o be affected by excess sulfur deposition in the future is unlikely t o change unless planned expenditures on emission control are increased or

FOREST RESOURCES DATABASE FOR FIIROPF

T he Timber Assessment Model (currently being run t o project the future development o f European forest resources) uses a forestry

database compiled by the Forest Study for all countries in Europe. For individual countries, or regions within larger European states, the database provides informatian on species composition, age classes, site classes, standing volumes, and annual growth. Where forest ownership impacts on production conditions, forestland is differentiated between ownership categories. Although collected using different methods in different countries, the data are sufficiently consistent and complete in the context o f the Timber Assessment Model and relevant policy questions t o meet analytical requirements, providing a unique basis for projections o f future stands, growth rates, and production volumes. It is becoming recognized as the most detailed database currently available that includes all Europe's forests from the Arctic t o the Mediterranean and the Atlantic t o the Urals.


EEC CENTRAL - T O T A L EUROPE Coniferous Deciduous Coniferous Deciduous Coniferous Deciduous Target Loads 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000

T he growth and vital i ty o f Eu- 88% 76% 34% 24% 98% 93% 50% 46% 79% 74% 39% 36% ropean forests is affected, indi-

NORDIC ~llllllllllllllllilllllll Coniferous Deciduous 1985 2000 1985 2000

EASTERN Coniferous Deciduous 1985 2000 1985 2000

Coniferous Deciduous 1985 2000 1985 2000

62% 84% 18% 40%

Percentage of forest areas where sulfur depositions exceed target loads.

reallocated (see OPTIONS, March 1989 - "Working Together t o Re- duce Acid Rain"). Moreover, the work reveals that many o f the areas likely t o suffer excess sulfur deposition wi l l also experience excess nitrogen deposition and stressful levels o f atmospheric ozone. This implies that many trees wi l l suffer assault f r om multiple pollutants.

Professor Sten Nilsson (Sweden), Princi- pal Investigator of IlASA 's Forest Study.

vidually and interactively, by several atmospheric pollutants: oxides o f sulfur and nitrogen, fluorides, ozone, heavy metals, and dust. A t issue in calculating the long-term effects o f air pollutants and deter- mining efficient abatement strate- gies is just how much pollution forest ecosystems can take f rom individual and combined sources and still remain healthy.

This gives rise t o the concept o f critical loads - quantitative estimates o f exposure levels below which harmful effects on the environment are unlikely t o occur. Since different ecosystems, regions, and tree species are not equally sensitive, critical loads and associated target loads (set as deposition levels not t o be exceeded) also vary.

The Forest Study at I lASA used critical loads specially calculated for European forest zones by the ECE and target loads calculated by the Beijer Institute (see box), together wi th current and projected pollutant deposition patterns (obtained using RAINS) t o map those forest areas that now experience, or wil l experience, damaging levels o f sulfur and nitrogen deposition.

Emission Scenarios

T hree different future distribu- tions for sulfur were estimated

representing different scenarios on emission reduction: a scenario describing official energy consump- t ion projections t o the year 2000 as reported t o the International Energy Agency (IEA) and ECE by individual governments; one based on the likely impact o f current international agreements on sulfur emission reduction; and a third based on the potential emission reduction achievable by fully employing today's pollution control technologies. This third scenario,


which assumes no measures for energy conservation or fuel switching, implies an 80% t o 90% reduction. in SO2 emissions. The precise amount depends on each country's energy consumption structure.

The scenario used t o project future levels o f nitrogen deposition was based on the latest international agreement t o stabi- lize NO, emissions t o the year 2000. The scenario projects total NO, emissions o f 22.8 million metric tons across the 27 European countries under study, about twice the maximum feasi- ble level (10.8 mil l ion metric tons) attainable by ful ly using today's best control technologies. Likely future ozone concentrations and emissions o f heavy metals (lead, cadmium, zinc, cesium, etc.) also entered into the analysis.

Results show that despite current emission control agreements, the majority of Europe's forest areas wil l still be suffering f rom excessive sulfur and nitrogen deposition by the year 2000.

Life Expectancy and Health

H ow this excess deposition o f acids and exposure t o atmo-

spheric pollutants wil l damage trees o f different types and ages is currently being estimated by the Forest Study using a model developed in the German Demo- cratic Republic. The Prognosis and Decision Support Model for En- vironment Conservation (P E M U) translates the effect o f exceeding target loads into damage and decline patterns by calculating the life expectancy o f affected trees and the t ime that affected trees spend in each o f four recognized damage classes (indicated by the level o f leaf or needle loss). Be- cause the health o f a tree affects its growth rate, and both this and life expectancy affect the value and t iming o f harvests, these calcula-

tions are important t o forest industries as well as f rom an ecological

I perspective. The calculations show the im-

pact o f sulfur deposition t o be dramatic. So long as the level o f sulfur deposition remains below 2 grams per meter squared per year (2 g mP2 yr-l), a pine tree in an area o f low sensitivity t o acid deposition would easily live more than 100 years and spend at least 60 o f these in a healthy state (wi th more than 90% o f its foliage intact). That same tree would live only 65 years if i t experiences sulfur depositions between 2 and 4 g m-2 yr-l. Moreover, i t would spend only its first 30 years in a fully healthy state. On average it

would be suffering needle losses o f between 10% and 25% during its next 12 years and 25% t o 60% for the 13 years after that. For the last 10 years o f i ts life i t would have less than 40% o f the needle coverage o f a healthy tree.

The higher the sensitivity o f the ecosystem t o acid deposition and the higher the level o f sulfur deposi- t ion, the more dramatic the effects on life expectancy and health. The same pine tree in an area o f high sensitivity experiencing sulfur deposition o f 4 g m-2 yr-l would live, on average, only 26 years. I t would never be fully healthy. A t levels o f sulfur deposition over 6 g m-2 Yr-l, a pine tree in an area o f low sensitivity would live, at most,

E arly on, damage symptoms attr ibuted t o air pollution f rom industri- alization were identified o n trees in industrial zones, leading t o the

first scientific studies o f the problem. These were carried out i n Germany between 1850 and 1883. Warnings o f possible large-scale damage were expressed during the 1960s, but the problem gained publicity in the 1980s when the first quantitative estimates o f damage were presented.

The alarm tha t gave rise t o current concerns was raised in Scandi- navia, where forest soils have low natural buffering capacity and therefore l i t t le tolerance t o 'persistent acid deposition. Though receiving less acid deposition than many of their European neighbors, the Scandinavian countries found their soil's natural buffering capacity t o be quickly exhausted - leading t o a leaching o f nutrients and the release o f toxic agents, like aluminum, now widely recognized t o be implicated in forest decline. Farther south, in Central Europe, more resilient soils have taken longer t o acidify despite higher pollution levels. Nonetheless, the threat posed by acidification in Central and Eastern Europe is high, and IIASA's latest work suggests that the danger to forests within these regions is both widespread and imminent.

The Beijer Institute, which has developed a system ,to calculate the sensitivity o f ecosystems i n Europe t o acid deposition, made special calculations for IIASA1s Forest Study. The calculations take in to account important ecological site factors within forest ecosystems such as soil type, rainfall, geology, and land use. The results give an allocation o f deciduous and coniferous forest resources o f each European country across different sensitivity classes. Corresponding maps show the spatial pattern o f target loads for pollutant deposition. Highly sensitive forest ecosystems are linked w i th low target loads and vice versa. For sulfur deposition, the least sensitive zones have target loads over 4.0 g S m-2 yr-' while target loads for the most sensitive zones are set below 0.5 g S m-2 yr-'.


current international commitments on emission reductions are in-

17 years. If the area was highly sensitive t o sulfur deposition, as is the case in many parts o f Scandinavia, it would die within four or five years.

I Growth Rates

S ulfur deposition has a dramatic effect on not only a tree's life

expectancy but also its state o f health. Moreover, i ts state o f health impacts strongly on its growth rate. The effect is best expressed by comparing the annual growth o f affected trees (in different damage classes, sensitivity zones, and levels o f sulfur deposition) wi th that o f unaffected trees. Looking at coniferous species and middle-aged stands (50 years old), the Forest Study has found that effects on growth do not appear unti l the tree has lost more than 25% o f i ts foliage. If this condition

' Crit ical loads for nitrogen vary with tree type (coniferous o r ddcid- uows)', geology, soil type, and weathering rate, but also depend upon I d s d sulfur deposition. Critical loads far the most highly sensitive

'zones were set by the ECE a t 0.3 g N m'2 yr-'. and 0.5 g N m-2 yr'l for coniferous and detiduous forests re~pect iwly , increasing t o 1.5 g N

rn. m-2 gr- I and 2.0 g N m-2 yr" for the least sensitive zones.

DistrlbuGon of sensitivity classes for European NMO countries expressed as a percentage of total forest area. The high sensitivity of Scandinavian ecosystems to sulfur deposition is clear, abng with rhe higher tolerance of deciduous. in comparison with coiiferous, forests.

t;;oniferous Deciduous .

Target Load g 5 m-* yr-I 2.0 1.0 0.5 4.0 2.0 1.0

Austria 14 54 32 67 33 0

Bulgaria 3 7 1. 26 66 29 5

CSSR - 20 45 . 35 7 1 29 0

Finland

France

German DR

Germany, FR

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Sweden

USSR

is reached or exceeded (especially if needle losses reach 60% or more), growth rapidly falls off. I t can get as low as 5% o f that o f an unaffected tree before, finally, the tree dies. Growth rates are commonly half among trees wi th 25% t o 60% needle loss and sink below 25% for trees wi th greater than 60% needle loss in comparison wi th undisturbed yields.

Scientists o f the Forest Study estimate that, across Europe, 3 billion cubic meters o f t imber (about 22% o f the total t imber inventory) is currently suffering air pollutant induced damage; an amount equiv- alent t o about 14 average yearly harvests. More than 70% o f the affected volume is in Continental Europe and the remainder in the Nordic countries. Damage is split almost equally between coniferous and deciduous species.

"Unless actions are taken, the situation wil l not improve up t o the year 2000," says Dr. Nilsson, "and the decline wi l l heavily influence future patterns o f wood supply t o the industry." As t o appropriate actions, his recommendations are clear. "Current international commitments on emission reductions are insufficient. Deposition abatement policies should be changed immediately f rom the current strat- egy o f general emission reductions t o one o f optimized, targeted reductions." W

The Forest Study is currently combining information on acid deposition, critical loads, forestry resources, decline cycles, and growth impacts within its Timber Assess- ment Model. This will provide forecasts, under several scenarios, of the development of timber resources within Europe over the next 100 years and provide a basis for testing policy options on emission abatement, silvicultural practices, and agricultural land conversion to forest. Results will be reported in the December 1989 issue of OP- TIONS.


Envisaged climate charrges

IlASA scientist alerts Government Commission of Inquiry

A t the request o f the Commis- sion o f Inquiry on Measures to

Protect the Earth's Atmosphere - established by the Parliament o f the Federal Republic o f Germany - Dr. Allen Solomon (USA), leader o f IIASA's Biosphere Project, gave evidence, 19 June, at a hearing on protecting forests in temperate zones. His message was that changes in climate envisaged during the twenty-first century may be o f a magnitude great enough to displace a significant portion of the earth's vegetation including much o f the broad-leafed deciduous, mixed, and boreal forests found in temperate latitudes.

Hostile Climate

D r. Solomon's testimony mostly concerned the northern bo-

real forest (see box). "Most regions now supporting boreal forests are projected to experience climate shifts that will impose conditions unsuited t o boreal species," said Dr. Solomon. "The growth rates o f trees now living in these zones can be expected to slow. Ultimately, boreal species will die as a result o f the warmer, for them, more hostile climate."

Invited experts from several countries attended the hearing to provide background information on the present state of temperate forests; t o establish the threats these forests face both now and in the future; and t o explain the role temperate forests might play in future climate change.

ACCELERATING CLIMATE CHANGE - TRUE 1 DANGER OF BOREAL FOREST DIEBACK

qip l?--,;~,;.:,.;<.T *. 5 7 i'

,.tm*m-: - -,-* 2 v , - - h- , t . i ! - r.. , . - ., i he cclrcumpolar boreal forest stret%esn'alP around the florthein Hemi I

1 sphere in belt that, in places, is 1,200 miles (1,900 km) wide. ir runs from northern Scandinavia t o northeastern Siberia and all across I northern Canada f rom the Pacific t o the Atlantic. With the exception of some upland boreal forest and the boreal forests o f China and Norway, almost all o f this vegetation zone lies within the territories o f IiASA's N M O countries.

The boreal forests are relatively homogeneous and simple sys tern l (in comparison with most other natural vegetation zones), containing varieties of only a few major tree genera. However, since they contain three-quarters o f the world's softwood they have considerable economic significance. Of even more importance, boreal forests may hold a far greater ecological significance than previously has been recognized.

I Although boreal forests play l itt le role in the current carbon cycle 'disequilibrium, the carbon contained within the trees and soils o f boreal forests - stored over centuries o f slow growth by millions o f trees - is enormous. Estimates suggest these forests could hold up to one-sixth o f the carbon o f the above-ground biomass o f the terrestrial biosphere (estimated t o total between 420 and 660 billian metric tons) and one-fifth o f the belowground carbon store (estimated at between 1,200 and 1,800 billion metric tons). In all, boreal forests could represent more than 400 billion metric tons o f stored carbon. This compares with the gross annual terrestrial plant CO;! uptake o f between 90 and 120 billion metric tons and an annual release o f carbon through the burning o f fossil fuels o f around 5 t o 6 billion metric tons.

I Much o f this stored carbon could be released t o the atmosphere were these forests t o die. A sudden dieback of boreal forests, leading t o a rapid carbon release (within, say, a period o f 50 t o 100 years) would hold enormous significance for the rate o f climate change. IIASA's latest work shows that under a doubling o f C02, up t o 40% o f the area currently under boreal forest would no longer be able t o support boreal species. If the trees in these areas died and no replacement trees were t o grow, there would be potential for perhaps 150 billion metric tons o f carbon t o be released t o the atmosphere. While uncertain over the amount and rate o f this potential carbon release, researchers estimate that the average annual release o f carbon could be equal t o one-quarter o f that released as a result o f burning fossil fuels (on the assumption that all 150 billion metric tons is released evenly over a 100-year period). This would plav a maior role in accelerating climate change.

:I--


Dr. Allen Solomon. Leader of IIASA's Biosphere Project.

Dr. Solomon's evidence fo- cused o n measures for protect ing the forests o f temperate regions and on current research needs. He also provided detailed informat ion on potent ia l shifts i n the natural l imi ts and species composi t ion o f temperate forests as a result o f the c l imat ic changes feared dur ing the twenty-f irst century.

Rate of Change

A ccording t o Dr . Solomon's tes- t imony, the problem for boreal

forest is not just the magnitude, but also the rate o f c l imate change. "The danger w i th a very rapid warming is tha t condit ions wi l l change t o o quickly fo r new, replacement trees t o migrate f r o m the south i n to the current boreal forest zones and for boreal species t o migrate northwards. Moreover, even if it was possible t o assist potent ia l in-migrant species through plant ing programs, t o o rapid a change in c l imate could mean they would st i l l be un- able t o complete their lifecycles - a process tha t may take 30 t o 50 years - before condit ions

Key: 1 Polar desert, 2 Subpolar dry tundra, 3 Subpolar moist tundra, 4 Subpolar wet tundra, 5 Subpolar rain tundra, 6 Boreal desert, 7 Boreal dry scrub, 8 Boreal moist forest, 9 Boreal wet forest, 10 Boreal rain forest.

Current distribution of boreal vegetation classes.

again become hostile. I t ' s catch- 22. Seedlings that could survive a t the t ime o f p lant ing would die before reaching maturity, bu t seedlings o f species tha t would be able t o survive 50 years hence could not survive now."

T h e major policy impl icat ion o f I IASA's research findings, and the main thrust o f D r . Solomon's evidence t o the Commission, is tha t actions should a im a t slowing the ra te o f C 0 2 emissions t o reduce the pace o f c l imate change. As an immediate goal this is more impor- tan t than, say, measures aimed at control l ing the u l t imate magni tude o f any man-induced warming. Con- serving energy, reducing the ra te o f fossil-fuel burning, and switching t o fuels w i t h lower carbon content are al l impor tant t ime-buying measures.

Uncertainty

I n the meantime, the work upon which D r . Solomon's evidence

was based has revealed major gaps in our scientific understanding. "We need t o know the long-term responses of trees t o chronically changing environments. Specifi- cally, field studies are needed t o document the condit ions tha t de- termine variabil i ty i n length o f tree l i fe cycles. Research is needed t o learn whether increased C 0 2 concentrations w i l l change the g rowth and vigor o f trees, and we need more model ing work t o reveal the local consequences o f differ- ing rates o f response by c l imat ic and biospheric systems t o a tmo- spheric C 0 2 and other greenhouse gases," says Dr . Solomon.


Forest dieback inevitable

Changes in climate resulting from greenhouse gases will render large areas unsuitable for the vegetation they currently support

T his is the central message emerging from recent work by

Dr. Allen Solomon and Dr. Rik Lee- mans o f IIASA's Biosphere Project. As precipitation and temperature regimes change, large areas will experience climates beyond the physiological tolerances o f existing vegetation. As new climates impact old vegetation zones, ex-

Pdar desert subpolar dry tundra subpolor m i s t tundra subpolar wet tuncf-a subpolar rain tundra boreal desert h e a l dry scrub boreal moist forest bweal wet forest boreal rain fwest cool ternperate desert cool temperate desert scrub cod temperate steppe cool temperate moist forests cod t m e r a t e wet forest cod temperate rain forest warm temperate desert warm temperate desert scrub warm temperate thorn steppe warm temperate cky forest farm temperate m i s t forest !arm temperate wet forest

warm temperate rain forest subtropical desert subtropical desert scrub subtropical thorn woodland subtropical dry forest subtropical moist forest subtropical wet forest subtropical rain forest tropicd desert tropicd desert scrub tropicd thorn woodkmd tropicd very dry forest tropicd dry forest tropicd moist forest tropicd wet fwest tropicd rain forest

isting vegetation will die back in a manner similar t o the forest diebacks experienced in Europe during the early 1980s. Although in the longer term this may make way for new replacement species t o in- migrate, the short-term prospect is for a rapid, widespread deforestation and the loss o f whole ecosystems.

Tropical Forests

T he work reveals tropical forests t o be particularly susceptible

t o climate change. Since tropical species have evolved in areas where seasonal variations in rainfall and temperature are slight, they generally have very narrowly prescribed

Opt ions, September 89

physiological requirements. Cer- ta in cri t ical areas o f the tropical forest that today covers Central Africa and Brazil could die back as a result o f the c l imate changes anticipated w i th a doubling o f atmospheric C 0 2 . Changes i n the amount and annual distr ibution o f available water i n areas now covered w i t h tropical forest wi l l likely be the immediate cause o f tree deaths.

These results have impor tant implications. Apart f r o m increasing the concern about c l imate change, the work throws doubt on the widely held belief tha t threats t o tropical forests are peculiarly those o f direct destruction f r o m fire and axe. B y implication, policies aimed a t saving tropical forests need t o address the problem o f climate change - the industrialized

world cannot secure the forest's future simply through agreements w i t h developing countries t o hal t forest clearance.

Zones o f Change

T he work a t I lASA is based on reconfiguring the exist ing

boundaries o f the Holdridge life- zone natural-vegetation groups on the basis o f data on the physiological requirements o f plants and the c l imat ic condit ions likely t o prevail under a doubling o f atmospheric C 0 2 . T h e work modifies the ap- proach o f D r . W i l l i am Emanuel o f the Oak Ridge Nat ional Lab- oratory, USA, and includes several refinements; for example, i t takes i n to account elevation effects o n vegetation zone boundaries.

According t o D r . Solomon: "The work is less interesting f r o m the viewpoint o f defining the l im- i ts o f newly emerging vegetation zones (which describe the areas where part icular types o f vegeta- t ion could survive i n the future and not where such vegetation wi l l actually grow) than f r o m the perspective o f p inpoint ing those places where the prevailing veg- etat ion most certainly wi l l no t survive (see maps). Judged in this l ight , almost the whole current global vegetation regime is a t risk."

Areas where prevailing vegetation (see key) would not survive under the climate changes anticipated wi th a doubling o f atmospheric C02


D r. Maurice Strong, President o f the World Federation o f United

Nations Associations (WFU NA), visited I lASA on 5 September, for discussions on an init iative t o establish an international commission on global risk and security. The WFUNA init iative seeks t o establish a program o f research aimed at clarifying the inter- relations among developments in several areas that separately and interactively bear upon security and risk management a t the global level. The following text is based on discussions during Dr. Strong's visit.

Q. . . W h a t recent develop- men t s under l ie t h e need f o r a n e w i n i t i a t i ve on g loba l r isk management?

A . . . In an increasingly intercon- nected and technological world, we face growing threats f rom man- induced and natural disasters, both insidious and catastrophic. Several developments, individually and interactively, have produced this situation; the increasing complexity and interdependence o f man-made systems, their impact on natural systems, and the growing poten- t ial for natural disasters t o have global effects. New technologies have increased the level and efficiency o f production but impose inherently high risks owing t o the processes, energy intensities, ma- terials, and wastes involved. The interdependence between the world economy, the global environment, and human security becomes more evident daily as the use o f systems already operating at, or near, capacity intensifies. As dependence increases, society becomes more vulnerable t o system failure - be it due t o natural causes, accidents, or deliberate attack. Ethnic, com- munal, and regional conflicts that provoke terrorism, civil unrest, and

volatility in economic relations, all fueled by the pressure o f growing population and inequalities in l iving standards, increase the likelihood o f such failure. And the stakes, in terms o f the consequences o f failure, are no longer confined t o local or regional scales, but are measured in global terms. Our planet and the whole o f human society are at risk. The challenge is t o all nations, collectively. The actions o f each wi l l effect all the others. No nation is immune, and none acting alone can secure its future.

Q.. . W h a t does g loba l i n te r - dependence i m p l y f o r re la t ions a m o n g states?

A.. . As developments threaten our planet and species, they also provide unprecedented challenges and opportunities for the world, a t least for a time, t o scale down some o f i ts most important ideological, political, and mil i tary confronta- tions and build a more viable and durable base for security in the clas- sic relationships among states. It's not t oo much t o say that we're a t a point o f a historic transi- t ion f rom a world in which relations among nations and interest groups are characterized by vigorous and often intensely combative assertion o f national economic and sectoral self-interest t o a world in which the potential for conflict that this produces must be contained. Com- petit ion in an interdependent world must take place within boundaries that ensure the continued viabil- i ty o f human civilization and the natural and man-made systems on which this depends. Levels and scales o f international cooperation without precedent wi l l be required t o avoid the risks and realize the positive opportunities t o which global interdependence gives rise.

II our planet and the

whole o f human society are a t risk

II

Q.. . How might a m o r e "viable a n d durab le base f o r securi ty" b e built a n d n e w re la t ionships a m o n g s tates establ ished?

A.. . Guaranteeing security in the future wi l l demand hitherto un- seen levels o f international cooperation and pragmatism. There wi l l be need t o establish international codes o f conduct, new frameworks for negotiating and managing agreements, and insti- tutional mechanisms for enforce- ment and support. Providing a basis for successful risk management wi l l also need new levels o f


/I developments pro-

vide and ' p - portunities

11 I scientific and edu- cation. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ l l ~ i t needs clear guidelines on critical thresholds, weak points, natural limits, etc., so that constraints and controls

be imposed on human activities that impinge on them.

Q. . . How does this relate to the W F U N A initiative?

A . . , ~h~ newly emerging situation and its implications are, as yet, l i tt le understood. It's clear that conventional notions of se- cur;ty, in a narrow, nationalistic sense, are becoming outmoded by new threats on the global scale: nuclear accidents, international terrorism, transboundary pollution, ozone depletion, and so forth. ~h~ WFUNA initiative aims to clarify and in- terlinkages between them, along

needs and opportunities the new situation presents. A ten-

tral feature will be the development of an analytical framework within which the linkages among the prin- cipal elements bearing on security and risk management might be better understood and evaluated as a basis for establishing the boundary conditions within which the world community must collectively work.

Q . . . Aren't these very ambi- tious proposals?

A . . . Yes. The subject matter is broad, far-reaching, and diverse, and the time frame available to us is very short. Nonetheless, much groundwork has already been achieved through the work o f ear- lier conferences and commissions:

the Brandt, Pearson, Palme, and Bruntland Commissions and the Commission on Humanitarian Is- sues, as well as a wide variety of other studies and reports. The in- tention is not t o duplicate these, but t o draw upon them. I t would be pretentious and unrealistic t o attempt t o address all the relevant issues comprehensively, but i t is important that a framework be developed through which the linkages and interactions between issues might be better understood and evaluated.

Q.. . HOW will the W F U N A commision differ from these other international commissions and conferences?

A.. . Unlike the various international commissions and conferences o f the past 20 years, which have done much illuminate and educate about particular global problems, this endeavor is seen

a limited Program to explore the possibilities for and potential modes of achieving international coo~e'ation on such problems and

a which the boundaries of and interaction among such issues can be better understood. Its nongovernmental character should allow for ideas to be canvassed without prematurely committing or corn- promising government positions. Similarly, its loose association with the World Federation of United Nations Associations will provide a broadly representative C O " S ~ ~ ~ U ~ " C Y including the East,

II I know of no

n;zat;on better suited to take the lead than IIASA ,, I

West, North, and South and a framework for multilateral cooperation without implying any hard and fast attachment t o existing in- tergovernmental organizations in their present forms. Another dif- ference is that there's no plan for a centralized commission to work toward a single, compen- dious statement at its conclu- sion. Instead, what's visualized is an active steering committee, giving direction, momentum, and support to a series o f representative and expert task forces whose work will be reported, widely dis- seminated, and discussed as i t is completed.

Q . . . How can IlASA help in this initiative?

A . . . There's a high correspon- dence between the the WFUNA initiative and the path of IIASA's existing research in terms of both substance and methods. As well as having established programs of On

environmental^ and social issues that already address risk and security questions on the global scale, IlASA has a great deal of experience in synthesizing the findings interdisciplinary research within a systems analytical frame. Particularly with regard the need to develop a framework for better understanding the interlink- ages among issues and the possibilities for interven- tion, IlASA has the appropriate analytical experience. IlASA is nonpolitical and nongovernmental, and has achieved notable success over many years in building international, in some instances global, networks within both scientific and political communities. I t also has considerable outreach potential in the important areas o f information dissemination and communication. There is a very real prospect of IIASA becoming involved, or even leading the project. Cer- tainly, I know of no organization better suited to take the lead in this area than IIASA.


Processes o f

International

Negotiations

I A S A was represented a t t h e recent ly held Sa lzburg Seminars i n session ent i t led Nego t i a t i on The -

ory and Pract ice: Business and Trade Disputes. Session 275 o f t he seminars drew extensively o n the experiences o f the P r o g r a m o n Nego t i a t i on - a n inter- university consor t ium t o improve the theory and pract ice o f conf l i c t resolu- t ion , based a t Harvard Universi ty, U S A - and o n I I A S A ' s Processes o f Inter- na t iona l Negot ia t ions (PIN) P ro jec t . T h e Ins t i tu te 's D i rec tor , Dr. Rober t H. P r y , and several cur rent and former I l A S A scientists par t ic ipa ted i n the event.

I I A S A is t o establish a new P r o g r a m o n Energy, Ecology, and C l ima te

(EEC) , a imed a t lay ing the founda t i on for t he long-range p lann ing o f environ- menta l ly sound, f u tu re global / regional energy systems. T h e act iv i t ies o f t he new P r o g r a m w i l l help define and focus the wor ld c o m m u n i t y o n the i m p o r t a n t elements o f a set o f ecologically sus- ta inable energy-development scenarios; provide pol icymakers w i t h t oo l s for developing in ternat iona l agree- men ts o n reduc ing t h e environmen- t a l impac ts o f energy systems; and provide guidelines a t regional and nat iona l levels fo r t h e development o f conservat ion and energy policies. T h e P r o g r a m w i l l be coord inated w i t h o ther I l A S A act iv i t ies directed a t ident i fy ing po l icy opt ions fo r delay- i n g c l ima te change and o ther impac ts resul t ing f r o m greenhouse gases.

Water Resources

A workshop was held i n Kar iba , Z imbabwe, 19-25 June, i n con-

nect ion w i t h t he imp lemen ta t i on o f the Zambez i River A c t i o n P lan ( Z A - C P L A N ) . It was a imed a t establ ishing contac ts between professionals f r o m r ipar ian countr ies and I I A S A ' s W a t e r Resources Pro jec t . (Con tac t : A n d r z e j Salewicz. I I A S A )

1 Scientific Cooperation

I I A S A has recent ly signed t w o three- year agreements fo r scientif ic coop-

erat ion w i t h leadinn Sov ie t ins t i tu - " t ions. T h e f i rst , w i t h t he A l l -Un ion Research Ins t i tu te fo r Sys tem Studies (VNI IS I ) o f t he Academy o f Sciences o f the USSR i n Moscow, covers research i n several related areas: t he me thodo logy o f systems analysis, r isk assessment, env i ronmenta l problems, t he development o f decision sup- p o r t systems, human dimensions t o g loba l change, and g loba l model ing . (Con tac t : Professor Vassil i Oko rokov , I I A S A )

he second agreement, w i t h the Scientif ic Counci l o n Systems Prob- lems i n Ecology (SCSE) o f t he Commi t t ee for Systems Analysis o f the Academy o f Sciences o f the USSR i n Leningrad, covers a wide spect rum o f work related t o env i ronmenta l issues: t he mode l i ng o f t ransboundary air po l lu t ion , popu la t ion dynamics and env i ronmenta l impacts , and decision- m a k i n g suppor t systems for environmen ta l accident s i tuat ions. (Con tac t : Professor B o Doos. I I A S A )

Technology, Economy,

and Society

T w o study agreements have been signed between I I A S A ' s Technol-

v

ogy, Economy, and Society P r o g r a m and the Ins t i tu te o f Geography and Geoecology ( IGG) o f Ber l in, b o t h suppor ted by t he C o m m i t t e e fo r Systems Analysis o f t he Academy o f Sciences o f the G D R . T h e f i rst is a n ine-month s tudy agreement t o assist I I A S A ' s ac- t iv i t ies i n t he f ield o f premarket assess- m e n t o f new technologies. (Con tac t : D r . Jaroslav Jira'sek. I I A S A )

T h e second is a seven-month agreement a imed a t developing a decision suppor t sys tem for technological- ecological coexistent regions ( L o w Was te Territories) and i t s computer imp lemen ta t i on . T h e sys tem w i l l in- tegra te s ta te , cont ro l , and process data , fo rmal ized and nonformal ized knowledge, models, rules, and experience. (Con tac t : Professor Fr iedr ich Schmidt -B leek, I I A S A )

W ork featured i n t he last t w o issues o f O P T I O N S (March and

June 1989) a t t r ac ted considerable a t - t en t i on bith f r o m the scient i f ic and po l i cymak ing commun i t i es and f r o m the media. T h e O P T I O N S off ice received requests fo r add i t iona l in- f o rma t i on o n a l l t h e wo rk featured i n t he June O P T I O N S a long w i t h reauests t o repr int several art icles and a specif ic commiss ion t o w r i t e a more detai led feature fo r t h e ma- j o r Aus t r i an newspaper, D i e Presse, based o n t h e f indings o f t he Future Env i ronments f o r Europe Study. T h e in terv iew w i t h Professor N a t h a n Key- f i t z (June 1989) f o rmed the basis o f a n art ic le i n another Aust r ian newspaper. Wiener Ze i t ung , and a ful l-scale repor t appears i n t he September 1989 Scien- t i f i c Amer ican. "Methane - Br idg ing the Energy Gap" (March 1989) has been repr inted i n t he UK journa l Energy D iges t and a f u l l repor t o n the In ternat iona l Energy Workshop (June 1989) has been submi t t ed t o the OPEC Rev iew. T h e I F O R S Bul le t in , t he newslet ter o f t h e Inter- na t iona l Ope ra t i on Research Societv. cont inues ;o repr in t news i t ems f r o k O P T I O N S .

I n response t o specif ic requests f r o m b ~ o k ' ~ u b l i s h e r s , ' a n d as an'addi- t iona l service t o ou r readers, beg inn ing w i t h th is issue we are ex tend ing ou r coverage o f new publ icat ions t o relevant non - I IASA publ icat ions ( in l ine w i t h t he coverage already gi;en t o upcoming, relevant, non - I IASA organized conferences). W e inv i te b o o k publishers and conference organizers t o cont inue advis ing us o f their act iv i - ties, and p lan an expanded i n fo rma t i on service - t o include book reviews and conference previews - wh ich wi l l be backed by commerc ia l advert is ing op- portuni t ies.

Some responses t o recent articles are repr inted i n t he Let ters co lumn , wh ich w i l l become a regular feature. W e cont inue t o i nv i t e your react ions b o t h t o specif ic features and t o O P - T I O N S generally.


Me thane - Br idg ing t h e Energy Gap I I Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is I quoting a price o f US $155,000 t o

I would like t o offer a comment regard- ing the article "Methane - Bridging the Energy Gap" (OPTIONS, March 1989). O f course. the article concerns studies on the use o f methane as a sub- stitute for coal or oil, but I must note that some o f the advantages presented in the story o f using gas t o generate electricity in Europe -specifically that gas-fired power stations can be built quickly and flexibiy at small sizes - also apply t o renewable energy technologies such as wind power stations. I present the following notes.

Since 1979, the Danish Energy Ministry has spent US $38 million in direct subsidies for commercial wind power plant installations. This is aside f rom the research budget. More wind turbines were erected in Denmark during 1988, totaling some 45 megawatts (MW), than in any previous year. O f the 45 M W , aside from those machines installed by private wind turbine cooperatives. some 27 M W were installed by the elec- tric utilities themselves. The cost o f energy from these plants is as low as US $0.05 per kilowatt-hour (Kwh) , which is comparable t o the gener- atior! cost o f electricity from clean coal plants. During November 1988, from a total o f 1,321 wind turbines registered on a Danish performance monitoring database. 1,024 produced a combined hourly output o f 16.5 million K W . Concerning equipment reliability, only nine o f these units were not operating. O f November's performance data, there are averages o f 28,000 K w h produced by 100 K W capacity wind turbines (a 38% capac- i ty factor) and 41,000 K w h by 250 K w h units (22.9% c.f.).

The Federal Republic o f Germany has a wind energy R&D budget o f D M 24 million for 1989, but a budget increase o f DM 20 million was an- nounced late last year for a national plan t o install 100 MW o f wind power. This is earmarked for direct installation subsidies for the 100 M W , t o be con- structed by 1995 (16 M W per year), for which direct subsidies close t o 50% o f project costs are available. A sequel program is expected after 1989, for the installation o f 750 M W . The Province o f Lower Saxony is, itself, subsidiz- ing 60% o f a DM 24 million project by the joint-venture util ity company Jade

Windenergie, ordering three 640 K W wind turbines f rom the manufacturer MBB.

More than 6 MW o f wind plant capacity were on-line in lndia by Octo- ber 1988, with another 190 M W being built and another 90 M W planned. En- hanced investment equipment tax de- preciation o f 30% is acceptable by the government for use in connection with wind turbines. Under the Integrated Rural Development Fund, a subsidy o f between 25% and 30% o f project costs is granted t o small farmers and o f 50% t o any community installing and maintaining i ts own wind turbine. Denmark's International Development Agency has granted US $23.5 million for the installation o f up t o 20 M W o f wind plants in lndia - one 10 M W project in Gujurat state and two 5 M W projects in Tamil Nadu.

~ m e r i c a n wind plant project develop- ers for i ts 275-KW, 28-meter diam- eter MH1250C turbine (FOB Japan, not including tower estimated at US $35,000), seemingly cheaper (per ro- tor swept area) than Danish turbines (MH1250C, US $300/square meter; Micon 400126, US S349lsquare meter; DWT 400134, US $306/square meter). The f irm has received export orders for some 400 units.

I hope these comments serve t o il- lustrate that renewable energy sources such as wind power have meaningful potentials t o help displace the need to use fossil fuels like coal. Additionally, wind plants emit no greenhouse gases a t all, and their use leaves no long-term responsibilities beyond eventual plant decommissioning. Nuclear plants, on the other hand, t o produce a few decades worth o f electricity, generate hazardous wastes that must be stored and carefully monitored for thousands, perhaps tens o f thousands, o f years. David Hoffman, Canadian Wind En- ergy Association, Ottowa, Canada

To ta l Qua l i ty Management ( T Q M )

The article in OPTIONS (June 1989) is a good introduction t o one out- come o f IIASA's activities that has had a great impact outside. I strongly support the text o f the article which, in an agreeable way, introduces the Hungarian way o f quality promotion. However, I see some problems associated wi th the boxes. In particular, the box entitled "The Quest for High Quality" does not fully stress the integrative impact o f TQM, and that headed "What is Total Quality Management," which provides a better impression, could still have been more consciously directed toward ex- plicit information on how t o manage the totality o f quality variation factors. We are, a t present, preparing a Working Paper on the Hungarian way o f T Q M and would welcome an ex- tended article on the implementation o f IIASA's knowledge in Hungary. So far as I am aware, this could be the largest practical adoption o f IIASA's output (by an entire country) in the history o f the Institute. Dr. Jaroslav Jirisek, IIASA


Recent Conferences

Nonlinear Synthesis. Sopron, Hun- gary, 5-9 June. Forty participants from 11 countries joined IIASA staff to investigate mathematical methods for the ob- servation, estimation, and control of nonlinear deterministic and stochas- tic processes. Cosponsored by the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis, the meeting was organized jointly by IIASA and Ari- zona State University. Proceedings are to be published by Birkhauser, Boston. (Contact: Professor Alexan- der Kurzhanski, IIASA)

Process o f lnternational Negotia- t ions (PIN): Problems and New Approaches, Laxenburg. Austria. 5-10 June. Contributors to an IIASA monograph on international negotiation from nine countries, met to discuss the content and structure of the book and its implications for theory and practice. Issues for further PIN activities were also discussed. (Contact: Professor Victor Kremeniouk, IIASA)

Diffusion o f Technologies and Social Behavior: Theories, Case Studies, and Policy Applications, Laxenburg, Austria, 14-16 June. This conference, jointly sponsored by IIASA, the Swedish National Board for Technological Development, and the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, attracted 91 participants from 16 countries. A wide range o f scientific disciplines was represented, and the participants spanned both research and user communities. Sessions included a review of diffusion theories (spatial and temporal approaches, economic theory, and sociology); an overview of empirical case studies of both product and process innovations; and diffusion studies for strategic policy formulation. A summary session addressed major questions of diffusion research and possible future research strate- gies. The conference proceedings are to be published both in the form of an edited volume and as a special issue of the international journal Technologi- cal Forecasting and Social Change. (Contact: Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, I IASA)

lnternational Public lnformation Directors Roundtable, Laxenburg. Austria. 15-16 June. Seventeen participants attended this meeting, which is held biannually and com~rises directors of information and public relations of international organizations. The group includes representatives o f such organizations as the World Bank, GATT, OECD, and the lnternational Red Cross. Discussions covered professional aspects o f devis- ing and delivering communications services. (Contact: Mr. Jean-Guy Carrier, I IASA)

Food and Agriculture Network Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 26- 28 June. This meeting of members of the Food and Agriculture Network (FAN), a network of BLS users (the Basic Linked System of models of national agricultural production developed by IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program), was held to discuss future network activities. It was organized by the Hungarian network member of FAN, the Center for Agricultural Policy Analysis, and was attended by representatives from the Center for Agricultural and Ru- ral Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in Ames, USA; the lndira Gandhi lnstitute o f Develop- ment Research (IGIDR) in Bombay, India; the' Center for World Food Studies (SOW) at the Free Univer- sity of Amsterdam, the Netherlands; and the All-Union Research Institute of lnformation and Technical-Economic Studies in Agroindustrial Complex in Moscow, USSR. A four-year cooperation document was prepared and signed by the directors of the institutions represented. Coordination of the network, which will be open to the participation of other interested centers, will be administered by IlASA on behalf of all parties. (Contact: Dr. Gunther Fischer, IIASA)

Computer Integrated Manufactur- i ng (CIM), Strasbourg, France, 17- 19 July. This third Annual IIASA Workshop on CIM was attended by 58 participants from 18 countries. Hosted by the BETA group of the University of Louis Pasteur, the CIM topics under discussion included: technological trends and diffusion; cost, benefits, and implementation strate- gies; management, organization, and

social impacts. Within the framework of the event, members of IIASA's CIM Advisory Group met to discuss options for future research. (Contact: Profes- sor Robert U. Ayres, IIASA)

Mathematical Approaches t o Prob- lems o f Forest Ecology, Vienna. Austria, 20-21 July. Experts from five countries and IIASA met to examine the use of mathematical modeling over long time in- tervals (of the order of 500 years) in understanding ecological dynamics of forest systems; for example, in explaining oscillations in the age structure of forests. Different approaches were demonstrated and evaluated. (Contact: Professor Mikhail Y. Antonovsky. I IASA)

Model ing and Inverse Problems o f Control for Distributed Parameter Systems. Laxenburg. Austria. 24- 28 July. More than 40 participants from seven countries met to discuss inverse problems that arise in the estimation and control o f distributed systems, as well as applications of these techniques to mathematical modeling for problems of applied systems analysis (environmental issues, biomathematical models, technological processes, mathematical economics, etc.). The meeting was organized jointly by the Inter- national Federation for lnformation Processing (IFIP) and IIASA. (Con- tact: Professor Alexander Kurzhanski, IIASA)

Discussion on the PIN book, 5-10 June.

Opt;ons, September 89

Forthcoming IlASA Conferences

November 23-24: Modeling the Spread o f HIV/AIDS and its Demo- graphic and Social Consequences, Budapest, Hungary (Contact: Dr. Gerhard Heilig , I IASA).

April 2-3, 1990: Annual Conference of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) - Europe, Laxenburg, Austria (Contact: Dr. Gerhard Kromer, I IASA).

June 12-15, 1990: INRIA/IIASA 9th lnternational Conference on Analysis and Optimization o f Systems, Antibes, France (Contact: Professor Alexander Kurzhanski, I IASA).

June 19-20, 1990: IFIP/IIASA/ VUSTE Conference on Man in Flex- ible Automated Production, Prague, Czechoslovakia (Contact: Professor Robert U. Ayres, IIASA).

Other Forthcoming Conferences

October 30-31: Nuclear Commerce in the 1990s - New Prospects, New Perils, Paris, France (McGrawHill Nu- clear Publications. 1221 Avenue o f the Americas, 36th Floor, New York, NY 10020, USA).

November 1: Solar Hydrogen Supply System, Zijrich, Switzerland (Con- tact: WCTC, Kellerweg 38, CH-8055 Ziirich, Switzerland).

November 1-5: Globescope Pacific Assembly, Los Angeles, California, USA (Contact: Global Tomorrow Coalition (GTC) Program, 1325 G Street, Suite 915, Washington, DC 20005-3104, USA).

November 20-24: Regional Semi- nar for Asia and the Pacific on Nuclear Research Centers in the Service o f Environmental Research, Service-Client-Sponsor Relationships, SerpongiJakarta, Indonesia (Contact: IAEA, P.O. Box 100, A-1400 Vienna. Austria).

December 11-14: Climatic Fluctua- tions and Water Management, Cairo, Egypt (Contact: Dr. Asit K. Biswas, President, lnternational Water Re- sources Association, 76 Woodstock

Close, Oxford OX2 8DD, United King- dom).

March 26-29, 1990: Information Network and Data Communication - INDC '90, Lillehammer, Norway (Contact: Ms. Ellen Bflhler, Den Norske Dataforening. P.O. Box 6715 - Rodel0kka. N-0503 Oslo, Norway).

April 4-6, 1990: Looking Back from the 21st Century: Impacts o f Climate Change on the Great Plains. University o f Nebraska, Lincoln, USA (Contact: Professor Ken Dewey, Center for Great Plains Studies, University o f Nebraska, 1213 Oldfather Hall, Lin- coln, NE 68588-0314, USA).

April 17-20, 1990: EMCSR 1990 - 10th European Meeting on Cybernet- ics and Systems Research, Vienna, Austria (Contact: Professor Robert Trappl, Department o f Medical Cy- bernetics and Artificial Intelligence, University o f Vienna, Freyung 612, A-1010 Vienna, Austria).

April 20-22, 1990: The Fourth Con- ference o f the Society for Human Ecol- ogy, Michigan State University, East Lansing. USA (Contact: SHE Con- ference Planning Committee, c/o Ms. Suzanne Sontag. 204 Human Ecology. Department o f Human Environment and Design, Michigan State Univer- sity, East Lansing, MI 48823. USA).

May 7-11, 1990: Radiation Protec- tion Infrastructure, Munich, Federal Republic o f Germany (Contact: IAEA, ; P.O. Box 100. A-1400 Vienna, Aus- tria).

Conference Preview

University of the World - First Annual Meeting, 14-16 October 1989. University of Michigan. USA. Through i ts attempt t o establish a network o f countries willing t o share educational resources through the medium o f electronic communications, the University o f t he World reflects the view o f its founder and former IIASA alumnus, Dr. James Miller, that the time is ripe for an electronic revolution in teaching methods. The University o f the World aims t o supplement conventional classroom teaching with the opportunity for students, worldwide t o take courses offered by institutions in any participating member country.

The courses offered would be a t all levels f rom elementary t o doctoral. The roles o f the University o f the World are seen as those o f facilitator and clearinghouse, wi th the aim o f elicit- ing a world trade in educational ma- terials that would increase the range and quality o f learning opportunities as well as achieving significant cost savings. The first annual meeting o f the University o f the World is intended as a series o f information and planning sessions involving representatives o f 15 countries that have already joined the University and interested parties that may seek future membership. Further details are available from the Univer- sity o f the World, 1055 Torrey Pines Road, Suite 203, La Jolla, California 92037, USA (tel: 619-456-0103; fax: 619-454-3206).

Globe '90 - First Biennial Trade Fair and Conference, Vancouver, Canada. 19-23 March 1990. For five days, developed and developing countries, international organizations, municipalities, environment industry suppliers and user industries, and scientists from around the world will meet t o share ideas. solutions. and new technologies designed t o pro- mote sustainable development. The event combines an international trade fair with an international conference. Products, services, and technologies (hardware and software, including information systems and consultancy services) for managing different environmental sectors will be exhibited at the trade fair. The conference f e cuses on using these tools t o develop practical solutions t o environmental challenges. The organizers expect 500 exhibitors and 15,000 delegates a t the trade fair and a further 2,OOOdelegates from 50 countries a t the conference.: More than 400 presentations will be given. Keynote speakers include: the Honorable John Fraser, Speaker, Canadian House o f Commons and Chairman o f the Globe '90 Interna- tional Advisory Board; Jessica Tuch- man Mathews, Vice-President and Research Director for World Resources Institute; and Brian Walker, President o f the lnternational Institute for En- vironment and Development. Further details are available from: Globe '90, Suite 250, 1130 West Pender Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 4A4, Canada (tel: 604-681-6126).


arise during construction and operation o f the project." Both parties requested that I lASA apply i ts long experience and expertise i n water and environmental studies t o assist them i n achieving this objective and agreed t o hold further meetings, wi th the participation o f researchers f rom IIASA, t o identify specific problems

I associated wi th the project. Lead- ers o f the delegations were Aca- demician lstvan Lang o f Hungary and Academician Vlastimil Barus o f Czechoslovakia. Academician Zdzis-

Hans Knop (GDR), Leader o f IIASA's Large Organizations Project (1974- 1976), has been awarded the GDR National Science Prize, while Dr. Zhongtuo Wang (P.R. o f China), an I lASA Scholar (1986-1988), is recipi- ent o f the Chinese National Award for Science Progress.

In addition, two I lASA alumni have been appointed t o key positions. Nobel Laureate Professor

law Kaczrnarek, Leader o f IIASA's Water Resources Project, headed IIASA's participation. (Contact: Aca- demician Zdzislaw Kaczmarek, IIASA)

External Relations

nformation sessions describing I IIASA'swork have recently been held in the UK and in the Federal Republic o f Germany. IIASA's work on Global Climate Change was described t o more than 40 participants from various min- istries and scientific organizations, as weII as t o former IIASA associates, a t a meeting on 5 June at the Irn- perial College o f Science, Technology, and Medicine in London. The second session, entitled System Problems o f Modern Industrial Societies - Energy, Environment, and Population Dynam- ics, was held a t the Science Center, Bonn, Federal Republic o f Germany, 28 June. Some 65 participants f rom scientific and policymaking communities and the media attended.

News conferences on the jo int IIASA-Vienna University o f Economics and Business Administration Study on Austrian East-West Business Joint Ventures and on the International Energy Workshop were held in Vienna, Austria, on 19 and 22 June.

Presentations at the llASA Council Meeting, 11-13 June.

r - . . A

//ASA Council Meeting he 33rd meeting of the IIASA

T c o u n c i l , chaired by Academi- cian Vladimir S. Mikhakvich, took place a t Laxenburg, 11-13 June. The agenda covered IIASA's strategic planning process and the f iv tyear plan for the period 1990 t o 1994, specific new research directions and initiatives, the Program Leaders' p r t sentations (including their five-year evolutionary program plans), a new scientific publications policy, and several NMO-related issues. The Council welcomed the new Dutch representative, Dr. Jan Borgman, Chairman o f the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).

Awards and Appointments

n recognition of his important contri- I butions t o IIASA, Prof- Wouter Tims, the former Dutch Council repro sentative, has been awarded the t i t le of IIASA Honorary Scholar by the I lASA Council. In addition, two former IIASA

Lawrence Klein (USA). I lASA Scholar in 1978, has been appointed Economic

to the newly Argen- tinian President Carlos S ~ U I Menem; and Dr. Ph;I;p Martin (USA), wi th llASA in lg81* has been named the US Presidential On

Agricultural Workers.

Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Dam Project

A t a meeting organized by I lASA and held in Laxenburg, 15 June,

representatives o f Hungarian and Czechoslovak scientific academies and governmental organizations agreed t o cooperate on measures t o ensure that construction and operation o f the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros water project on the Danube will be environ- mentally sound. In a memorandum o f agreement the Czechoslovak and Hungarian representatives expressed "their readiness t o share all available scientific results and knowledge t o solve problems that might

associates have recently received national honors and awards. Professor

Representatives of Hungary and Czechoslovakia at talks on the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Dam Project, 15 June.


DISTRIBUTIONAL ASPECTS OF

HUMAN FERTILITY A GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDY a

Future Environments for Europe: Some implications of Alternative Development Paths. W. M. Stig- liani, F. Brouwer. R.E. Munn, R.W. Shaw, and M.Y. Antonovsky. Re- printed from The Science o f the Total Environment 80 (1989). RR- 89-5, 112 pp, US $10.

U.S. Competitiveness in Manufac- turing. R.U. Ayres. Reprinted from Managerial and Decision Economics, Spring 1989, RR-89-6, 15 pp, US $5.

For further details contact Robert Mclnnes.

IIASA Newsletters

POPNET. IIASA's Population Pro-

four main project outputs: a database on energy efficiency; estimates o f energy conservation potential; results o f a study on long-term achievable energy efficiency; and a manual detailing relevant new energy-efficient technologies. The book begins with a broad view o f the energy outlook for Europe and North America.

Wasting Assets: Natural Resources in National Income Accounts. R. Repetto, W . Magrath, M . Wells, C. Beer, and F. Rossini; ISBN 0-915825- 31-7, US $10. This publication, available from the World Resources Institute (WRI Publications, P O Box 620, Holmes, PA 19043, USA), takes a new look at national income accounting. Under current national income accounting practices, assets such as

IlASA Books

W O L F G A N G L U T Z

wo new IIASA books, now off T p r e s s , are available f rom your regular book supplier or direct from the publisher.

Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility: A Global Comparative Analysis. W . Lutz. Academic: London, New York, Boston, San Diego, Sydney. Tokyo, 1989. ISBN 0-12-460470-6.

gram is upgrading i ts regular newsletter, POPNET. The first o f the new series, will be distributed in the fall.

Statistical Analysisand Forecasting of Economic Structural Change. P. Hackl, editor. Springer-Verlag: Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, 1989. ISBN 0-387-51454-6 and 3-540-51454-6.

buildings i n d equipment are valued as productive assets and depreci- ated over time; natural resource assets are not. This asymmetry in

IIASA Reports

I n addition, the following I lASA reports are now available from the

Publications Department at the price indicated:

Scenarios of Socioeconomic De- velopment for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review. F.L. Toth, E. Hizsnyik, and W.C. Clark, editors. June 1989. RR- 89-4. 293 pp, US $20.

Other New Publications and Newsletters

Energy Efficiency in European In- dustry. A recently published ECE study, is now available as a United Na- tions Publication, ISBN 92-1-116439- 7, US $75. The volume represents the final report o f the secretariat o f the ECE t o the UN lDO project on Re- gional Cooperation in the Field o f En- ergy Conservation. Its contents cover

the way national assets are treated sends misleading signals t o policy- makers. It promotes and seems t o validate the idea that rapid rates o f economic growth can be achieved and sustained by exploiting the resource base, resulting in illusory gains in national income and permanent losses in wealth. This book presents arguments for integrating natural resources into national income accounts. A first step, its authors suggest, would be t o as- sign values t o these resources and the services they provide, a task especially difficult with natural resources that do not flow through the marketplace. Using Indonesia's timber, petroleum, and soils as examples, this report tests and applies a new methodology for integrating natural resource depletion into a revised national accounting system that can more accurately ref!ect economic reality.

UPDATE. OPTIONS readers interested in receiving UPDATE, the newsletter o f the United Nations Cen- tre for Science and Technology for Development, are invited to write t o Dr. Paul M . Weaver a t I IASA who will arrange for their name to be added t o the UPDATE mailing list. UPDATE is a quarterly journal cover- ing cross-sectoral issues o f science and technology.

b.

+ Capltal Cltles of NMO Countries

I n t e r n a t ~ o n a l Institute for A p p l ~ e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s ~ s

llASAgs ROLE RESEARCH The International Institute for Applied Recent projects have included studies Systems Analysis is a non-governmen- on global climate changes, world agri- tal research institute sponsored by cultural potential, energy resources, scientific organizations from East and acid rain, computer integrated manu- West. It brings together scien~ists from facturing, the social and economic more than 20 nations and a variety of impacts of demographic changes, and disciplines. Its purpose is to develop the theory and methods of systems practical options to deal with issues of analysis.The basis of IIASA's scientific MEMBERSHIP international importance through the IlASA was founded in 1972, on the application of system sciences. The R I S ~ Analysts II initiative of the USAand the USSR,with . Institute's effectiveness is rooted in its the eventual participation of another international sponsorship and focus, 14 countries in the East and West. its nonpolitical status, its freedom to IIASA has member organizations in the choose its research agenda from a following countries: Austria, Bulgaria, variety of pressing international issues, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Finland, its interdisciplinary base, and its world- France, the German Democratic wide networkof ~ollaborating organiza- Republic, the Federal Republic of

Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America. -

research is the development and use of FURTHER INFORMATION computer models to help define how Further information about IlASA and global issuesand problems may evolve its work is available from: The Office in the iuture.The objective is to develop of Communications,lnternational Insti- viable policy options that can be imple- tute for Applied Systems Analysis, mented through international coopera- A-2361 Laxenburg,Austria.Telephone:

(0 2236) 71 5 21-0.

Documents

Seatember '89 - IIASA · by the Beijer Institute (see box), together with current and projected pollutant deposition patterns (ob- tained using RAINS) to map those forest areas that