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Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria. Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, Belgrade. Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria. Verification Atlantic SST/NAO Overview of models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria
Ilian GospodinovIlian Gospodinov
National Institute of Meteorology National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrologyand Hydrology
Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences
SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, BelgradeBelgrade
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria
VerificationVerification Atlantic SST/NAOAtlantic SST/NAO Overview of modelsOverview of models Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14
for Bulgaria and the SEECOF regionfor Bulgaria and the SEECOF region
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria+2 warm
+1 warm or normal
0 normal
-1 cold or normal
-2 cold
Baseline period 1980-2009Baseline period 1980-2009
+2 wet
+1 wet or normal
0 normal
-1 dry or normal
-2 dry
all categories
no forecast
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill
Temperature
Forecast
Category
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
June 0 1 0 0.44 4 3 4
July 0 1 0 0.22 4 3 4
August 1 -1 1 1.84 3 0 3
Summer 1 1 0 1.22 4 4 2
Precipitation
Forecast
Category
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
June 0 -1 0 1.28 2 0 2
July 1 0 1 0.25 3 4 3
August 0 1 0 -1.38 2 0 2
Summer 0 0 0 0.30 4 4 4
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill
Temperature
Forecast
Index
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
December 0 0 0 -1.29 2 2 2
January 1 1 0 0.73 4 4 3
February 0 1 1 1.47 2 4 4
Winter 1 1 1 0.69 4 4 4
Precipitation
Forecast
Index
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
December 1 1 0 1.63 3 3 0
January -1 -1 0 0.59 0 0 3
February 1 -1 0 1.63 3 0 0
Winter 0 0 0 1.83 0 0 0
Winter Forecast NAOWinter Forecast NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to NAOHow Bulgarian winters relate to NAO..
CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 25 0 50 25
NAO- 25 50 0 25
CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 25 17 33 25
NAO- 25 33 17 25
Winter Forecast ENSO/NAOWinter Forecast ENSO/NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO
La Nina CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 32 18 32 18
NAO- 32 32 18 18
El Nino CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 18 18 32 32
NAO- 18 32 18 32
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO)ENSO)
NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable. NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable.
ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO)ENSO)
ENSO 0CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 25 17 33 25
NAO- 25 33 17 25
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Feb2014 for BulgariaFeb2014 for Bulgaria
Temperature EUROSIP ECMWFMetOffic
e NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis
2014 DJF * *
Precipitation EUROSIP ECMWFMetOffic
e NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis
2014 DJF *
Winter 2013/14 by MonthsWinter 2013/14 by Months
Synthesis of Synthesis of monthly monthly predictions for predictions for the winter the winter months in months in BulgariaBulgaria
Temperature NCEP TCC Ibimet BCCSynthesi
s
December
January
February
Precipitation NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Синтез
December
January
February
Winter 2013/14 SynthesisWinter 2013/14 Synthesis
Temperature Month Winter
December
January
February
Precipitation Month Winter
December
January
February
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
NW Balk NE Balk Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus
SW Balk SE Balk W Cauc E Cauc
Greece
Aegean Aegean SeaSea
NW Turk NE Turk
SW Turk SE Turk
MediterranMediterraneanean SeaSea
Israel
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Temperature NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel
BCC -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 2
TCC -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0
ECMWF 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
MetOffice -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
NCEP 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0
IRI 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2
Synthesis -0.2-
0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7
EUROSIP
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Precipitaton NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel
BCC -1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1
TCC 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 1
ECMWF -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1
MetOffice -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -2
NCEP 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -2
Synthesis -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.2 0.25 0.4 -1 0.4 -0.6 -1 0.25 -0.6
EUROSIP
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
TemperatureTemperature-0.2 -0.2 Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus
0.2 -0.2 0.2 0
0.2Aegean Aegean
SeaSea -0.2 -0.2
-0.2 0
MediterraMediterraneannean SeaSea IsraelIsrael
0.7
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
PrecipitationPrecipitation-0.4 -0.6 Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus
0.2 0.2 -0.75 0.25
0.25Aegean Aegean
SeaSea 0.4 -1
0.4 -0.6
MediterraMediterraneannean SeaSea IsraelIsrael
-0.6
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14
Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion
Seasonal Forecasting at Seasonal Forecasting at the Bulgarian Weather the Bulgarian Weather
ServiceService
Ilian GospodinovIlian [email protected]@meteo.bg
National Institute of Meteorology National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrologyand Hydrology
Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences