Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium:Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climateforecasts and observations in NE U.S.

(What the heck happened?)

Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar,Lisa Goddard and Marty Hoerling

CDPW, October 2003, Reno, Nevada

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CDC’s multi-model AGCM-mimicking CCA:Forecast made Nov 2002 for DJF 2002/03

DJF 2002-03 Surface Temperature Made November using predicted SST

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Canonical surface temperature El Nino response

Canonical surface temperature El Nino response

Canonical precipitation El Nino response

CPC temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November

IRI temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November

DJF 2002-03 Observed SST Anomaly

X

X

X = significant errorin IRI’s SST forecast

X

CDC

DJF 2002-03From observed SST

From NOAA Climate Prediction Center

wow

wow

gee whiz

Sign-Agreement Diagrams

200mb height

5 modelsplus obs

5 models

Signal-to-Noise

“Noise”

Signal-to-Noise

Signal-to-Noise

Individual ensemble members from the various models

EnsAvg

200mb

200mb

200mb

200mb

200mb

200mb

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Toward AGCM-generatedprobability forecasts

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)

200mb

2000-01 2001-02 1997-98 NDJF NDJF NDJF

5 models 5 models 5 models + obs + obs + obs

5 models 5 models 5 models

Reliability Diagram 1997-2001

Reliability Diagramlonger “AMIP”

period

from Goddardet al. 2003

(EGS-AGU-EUG)