17
SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA 28 October 2008

SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA 28 October 2008

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

SEARCH Understanding Change:Priorities and Needs

Matt Berman, John Walsh

SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA28 October 2008

State of Science and Policy Shift Since Publication of 2005 SEARCH Implementation Strategy

• Number 1 science question in 2005: Is arctic environment moving from a fluctuating state to a new warming state? No longer in dispute.

• Question of the day is now: what do we do to address warming climate?

• Understanding changing arctic system is critical to developing sound climate policy– Mitigation– Adaptation

• What do we most need to know to serve policy needs?

GCMs Underestimate Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007

September Sea Ice Extent: IPCC 4th Assessment Model Runs vs. Observations

Will policy based on IPCC 4th Assessment be inadequate to meet climate policy goals?

• Inaccurate initial conditions for model simulations?

• Biased parameters?

• Misunderstood feedback relationships?

Atmospheric methane concentrations increased dramatically in 2007

• Biggest increase found in Arctic suggests arctic cause

• Is this another poorly understood arctic feedback to global climate?

Arctic sea level rising faster than global average in IPCC 4th Assessment Report

• What are the causes?

• What are the consequences for arctic communities?

Proshutinsky et al., 2008

Need for integrated analysis of changes in physical environment, vegetation change, and ecosystem dynamics

Relative herd sizes

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Nicolson and Russell, unpublished data

Relative herd sizes of world wild Rangifer herds with 3 and 6 year running averages. Warming climate associated with increasing herds in 1980s and 1990s, but most herds decreasing after 2000.

Over 400 new Alaska Native students moved into the Anchorage public schools in 2008, twice the number in any

previous year

• What are the causes?

• How will people adapt to cumulative effects of climate change and mitigation policy, which is certain to raise living costs in the Arctic?

Anchorage Schools watching rural-to-urban student influx

Mon, September 29, 2008 Posted in Alaska News

Last month Anchorage School District administrators predicted the deteriorating economy of bush Alaska would produce a migration of rural families to urban Alaska, especially Anchorage. That prediction has proven more accurate than expected.

Len Anderson, KSKA - Anchorage

State of SEARCH Understanding Change research

1) “Back of the envelope” assessment of progress of “understanding change” activities under each driving question in SEARCH Implementation Plan

(P = Priority/Phasing in Implementation Plan)

2) Use this assessment to identify major needs/gaps in the “understanding change” component of SEARCH

1. Is the Arctic system moving to a new state?

• Integrative Data Assimilation for the Arctic System gridded databases for detection and attribution of change P1

• Observing System Sensitivity Experiments to guide post-IPY AON P1

• Synthesize human dimensions data on pan-Arctic scale P1

-- two data assimilation projects; some HD synthesis via SYNICE, ELOKA

2. To what extent is the Arctic system predictable?

• Coordinated sets of model experiments targeted at understanding recent changes and reducing uncertainties in projected changes P2

• Experiments with linked social-ecological models to assess ecosystem predictability and inform adaptation planning P2

• Integrate climate and weather datasets for predictive applications P3

-- broad-view predictability/uncertainty activity limited, at best

3. To what extent can recent and ongoing Arctic changes be attributed to anthropogenic forcing?

• Controlled experiments and sensitivity tests with updated models, with varying GHG levels , aerosols, land use, … P1

• Integrate observations of terrestrial, marine and atmospheric variables into databases suitable for integrated (cross-component) diagnostic assessments of change P2

-- controlled experiments/sensitivity tests not apparent;

-- importance of integrated databases recognized; CADIS

4. What is the direction and relative importance of system feedbacks?

• Improve and expand capabilities of models used for Arctic simulations by enhancing formulations of key Arctic processes (e.g., vegetative, hydrologic, ocean/ice interaction, clouds,…) P2

-- many projects addressing specific linkages that can contribute to feedbacks;

holistic approach to feedbacks not yet emergent

5. How are terrestrial and marine ecosystems and ecosystem services affected by environmental change

and human activities?

• Synthesize information and modeling of ecosystem components and their interactions, including freshwater fluxes, resource harvests and other human activities P2

• Develop an understanding of how to scale process and mechanistic knowledge in space and time P2

-- many projects on monitoring components of ecosystems and linkages within

ecosystems; integrated approach less apparent (CEON?)

-- some projects addressing scaling at component/scale; ARC scaling report

6. How do cultural and socioeconomic systems interact with Arctic environmental change?

• Develop socioeconomic models incorporating ecosystem services; qualitative and quantitative research on resilience of socio-economic systems P1

-- several projects addressing state of Arctic human environment;

socioeconomic modeling, ecosystem services, resilience much less apparent

7. What are the most consequential links between the Arctic and the earth systems?

• Conduct controlled model experiments to understand global-arctic linkages, focusing on key physical linkages such as sea level, hydrologic changes in North Atlantic, trace gas fluxes, etc. P2

-- some measurements directed at Arctic-global connections

(e.g., Bering Strait); otherwise little on Arctic-global connection,

especially in modeling

What seem to be the major needs?

• Connection to needs of planners and policymakers

-- What do they really need? -- Is SEARCH headed in a direction that will meet these needs?

• Integrated assessment of uncertainties

-- What are the major uncertainties -- impediments to understanding, prediction -- in the trajectory of the Arctic system?

-- How will these uncertainties impact uses of information?

What seem to be the major needs?

• System framework for assessing feedbacks, major uncertainties

– How to link interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land?

– How to integrate physical, biological, and human systems?

• Connections between the Arctic and the global system

• Predictability assessments