Sea Level Rise-Impacted Tuban Coastal Vulnerability Model · 2019. 4. 17. · Tuban Regency is one of the coastal cities located in East Java Province, Indonesia Geographically Tuban

International Journal of Oceans and Oceanography

ISSN 0973-2667 Volume 13, Number 1 (2019), pp. 129-146

© Research India Publications

http://www.ripublication.com

Sea Level Rise-Impacted Tuban Coastal

Vulnerability Model

Marita Ika Joesidawati1), Suntoyo2), Wahyudi2), Kriyo Sambodo2)

1)Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe, Tuban, Indonesia

2) Department of Ocean Engineering, Faculty of Marine Technology, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh, Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

Abstract

Indicators of climate change related to global warming include temperature

rise, rainfall change and sea level rise (SLR). The impact of climate change is

beginning to be felt in Indonesia, including the increasingly uncertain weather,

floods, long droughts, strong winds. While the impact of rising sea levels

began to inundate the productive lands. Tuban Regency is the northern coastal

area of East Java Indonesia is also estimated to be affected by SLR. The aim

of this research is to develop susceptibility model of the effect of SLR and to

know the magnitude of the impact of SLR that occurred. Determination of

coastal susceptibility index to SLR used in this research is 6 physical

parameters and 6 parameters of human activity. The impact of SLR that occurs

using Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) matrix is then simulated by using the

impact magnitude map

Keywords: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Vulnerability Index, physical parameters,

human activity parameters

1. INTRODUCTION

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change can affect human populations in coastal

areas, small islands and marine ecosystems. SLR are expected to continue for

centuries (Bindoff et al., 2013; Fischlin; et al., 2007). IPCC (2013) estimates sea level

rise to reach 42-98 cm by 2100. To reduce the impact that will occur due to SLR it is

necessary to identify and protect vulnerable parts of the coast to prevent unpredictable

disasters. Therefore, to be able to determine the appropriate protection of coastal

mailto:[email protected]

130 Marita Ika Joesidawati, Suntoyo, Wahyudi, Kriyo Sambodo

susceptibility assessment activities on the impact of SLR. Özyurt (2007) and Özyurt

et al. (2008) developed Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) specifically assess the

impact caused by SLR. The index is determined through 5 parameters: coastal

erosion, storm flood, permanent flood, sea water intrusion into groundwater and river.

ETC CCA (2011) assessed coastal vulnerability to sea level rise using 12 coastal

physical parameters and 7 parameters of human activities. Pendleton et al. (2005) and

Gornitz et al. (1997) analyzed the vulnerability of coastal areas with two variables,

namely geological variables (geomorphology, elevation / surface elevation in coastal

areas and coastline changes) and marine process physical variables (relative sea level

rise, average tidal ridge and significant wave height). This parameter is commonly

used as a susceptibility analysis of SLR.

Determination of coastal susceptibility index to SLR used in this study was a

modification of Pendleton et al. (2005) and Gornitz et al. (1997) and Özyurt, (2007).

Physical Geomorphology, (2) Soil Surface height, (3) Average tidal raise, (4)

Significant wave height (5) Relative sea water advance rise (KMR) (3) Ground Water

Consumption, (4) Land Use Pattern, (5) Natural protection against degradation, (6)

Coastal protection structure The purpose of this research is to develop susceptibility

model of the effect of SLR and to know the magnitude of the impact of SLR that

occurred.

2. STUDY AREA

Tuban Regency is one of the coastal cities located in East Java Province, Indonesia

Geographically Tuban Regency is located at coordinates 111º30'-112º35'EL and

6º40'-7º18'SL. The scope of research macro area of coastal area of Tuban Regency is

the sub-districts bordering the waters of the North Sea of Java. The macro area

consists of 5 coastal sub-districts (Bancar District, Tambakboyo, Jenu, Tuban and

Palang). While the micro area in this research that is land in coastal area of Tuban

Regency which predicted will be affected or area 300 m from shoreline at the time of

research.

The problem of coastal cities in the global scope is due to climate change is very

influential on local issues. UNDP (2007) describes the impacts of global climate

change can exacerbate existing risks and vulnerabilities in local issues that can

threaten coastal sustainability and increase the burden of their ability to deal with

local problems. Condition of Coastal Area of Tuban Regency Climate Change, among

others:

Rainfall Pattern

Fig 1 showed that the dry season in Tuban Regency is longer than the rainy season

but with higher bulk. While the rain pattern is erratic, this proves the changing climate

and the amount of rainfall is also changing. UNDP (2007) explains with frequent

unpredictable rainfall, higher air temperatures can drain soil, reduce groundwater

sources, degrade land, and in some cases, can lead to desertification.

Sea Level Rise-Impacted Tuban Coastal Vulnerability Model 131

Fig 1 Comparison of rainy season, dry season and rainfall pattern

of Tuban district (2000-2015)

Air Temperature Trends

Air temperature data obtained from Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics

Agency Surabaya and Tuban Environmental Agency showed that the increase in air

temperature during the year 2000-2015 amounted to 0.131 ºC from the annual average

temperature (Fig 2). This indicates that the air temperature in the coastal areas of

Tuban district has also increased as a result of climate change. IPCC (2007) explains

the Earth's surface temperature at the end of the 21st century will rise from 1.1ºC to

6.4ºC, if air temperatures rise by 1ºC the sea begins to lose the ice layer above it will

absorb more heat and accelerate global warming; Fresh water disappears from a third

of Earth's surface; Lowland areas on the coast will be hit by floods.


Fig 2. Trends in the average temperature of Tuban district (2000-2015)

Sea Water Temperature Trends

Sea water temperature for coastal area of Tuban Regency, measured directly on Boom

Tuban beach in 2008-2015 with 3 depth and 3 different observation time, the result

shows that the greater the intensity of the sun that received sea water the higher the

temperature of the sea water while the depth no effect. While the average of each year

as shown in Fig 3 shows an increase in sea water temperature of 0.0895oC from the

mean annual sea water temperature.

Fig 3. Average per year of sea water temperature at Tuban beach (2007-2016)


Fig 4 Flood rob at high tide

Flood and Rob

Flood and rob in Tuban Regency was also a problem that is quite influential on

coastal communities, because it often disturbs the activities of coastal communities

themselves. Based on the results of the field survey. Fig 4 most of the coast in coastal

areas prone to rob especially when the big tide (month of dead or full moon in

October-December).

Retreat Shoreline

The analysis of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) at Tuban Beach from 1972

to 2015 by combining 5 coastlines from Landsat multitemporal satellite images

declined with an average rate of change of 15.23 m / year (EPR/End Point Rate) and

13.86 m / year (LRR / Linear Regression Rate) (Joesidawati and Suntoyo, 2016).

3. METHODOLOGY

Measurement measures of coastal vulnerability in coastal areas of Tuban Regency due

to sea level rise using 3 stages:

Phase I is the determination of coastal vulnerability index parameter, coastal

vulnerability assessment due to sea level rise using 6 physical parameters which is a

modification of Pendleton et al. (2005) and Gornitz et al. (1997), namely geological

parameters (geomorphology (GF), surface elevation (E) in coastal areas and coastline

changes (PGP) and marine physical process parameters (relative sea rise/KMR),

average tidal ridge (TR), and significant high wave (SHW) .This parameter is

commonly used as a susceptibility analysis of the SLR and 6 parameters of human

activities (Özyurt, 2007) include 1) Sand Mining, (2) Beach Reclamation (RP) (3)


Land Use (PL), (5) Natural protection against degradation (PA), (6) Coastal

protection structure (SP).

Phase II is the process of obtaining Parameters of coastal vulnerability index. Phase

III is the weighting (scoring), The weighting of physical parameters of coastal

vulnerability to sea level rise Table 1 and 2.

Table 1. Weighting of Physical Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

No

Parameter

Weight / Class Vulnerability

Not

vulnerable

Less

vulnerable

Medium Susceptible Very vulnerable

1 2 3 4 5

1 Coastal

Geomorphology

(GF) (1)

High cliff Medium

Cliff

Low

cliffs,

alluvial

plains

Estuarine,

Lagoon

Sandy beach,

Swamp,

brackish, mud,

delta, mangrove,

coral exposure

2 Soil Surface Level

(Elevation/E) (2) (in

m)

>30,0 20.1-30.0 10.1-20.0 5.1-10.0 0.0-5.0

3 Average tidal

distance (TR) (3) (in

m)

> 6.0 4.0-6.0 2.0-4.0 1.0-2.0 < 1.0

4 Significant Wave

Height (SWH) (3)

(in m)

< 0.55

0.55-0.85

0.85-1.05

1.05-1.25

> 1.25

5 Relative Sea Water

Rise (KMR) (3) (in

mm / yr)

< 1.8 1.8-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.4 > 3.4

6 Relative coastline

change (PGP)

The calculation results Changes Coastline adjusted field conditions (the

accretion, erosion). There are 2 Reference scores

Relative coastline

change (m / th)

(Accretion and

abrasion) (3)

> 2.0

(Accretion)

1.0-2.0

(Accretion)

-1.0-1.0

(stable)

-2.0- -1.0

(Abrasion)

< -2.0

(Abrasion)

Relative coastline

change(4) (m / th)

(Abrasion)

0 0-1 1.01-5 5.01-10 > 10

Source: Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 2000(1); Gornitz et al. 1997 (2); Pendleton et al., 2005 (3); Boruff et al., 2005(4)


Table 2. Weighting of Parameters of Coastal Vulnerability Effects on Coastal SLR

No

Parameter

Weight / Class Vulnerability

Not

vulnerable

Less

vulnerable

Medium Susceptible Very

vulnerable

1 2 3 4 5

1 Sand Mining >80% 60-80% 40-60% 20-40% <20%

2 River Basin Rules Not

affected

Affected

moderately

Greatly

affected

3 Beach reclamation <5% 5-20% 20-30% 30-50% >50%

4 Ground Water

Consumption

>20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% >50%

5 Pattern of Land

use

Protected

area

Unclaimed Residence Industry Agricultural

6 Natural protection

against

degradation

>80% 60- 80% 40- 60% 20 -40% <20%

7 Coastal protection

structures

>50% 30- 50% 2 20- 30% 5 - 20% <5%

Source:Özyurt (2007)

So that coastal susceptibility index is calculated with the following formulation as

follows:

CVI = √(𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝑨∗ 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝑩………∗𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒐−𝒏)

𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒓 …..(3.1)

where:

CVI = Coastal Vulnerability Index

After the calculation results are obtained, the coastal susceptibility index was further

classified into 5 classes, ie, areas that are not vulnerable, less vulnerable, moderate,

vulnerable and very vulnerable. Values range between 1 and 5 The class breakdown

was done by dividing by percent with a range between classes of 20%. Values less

than 20% including non-vulnerable classes, 20% - 40% included in less vulnerable

classes, 40% - 60% middle class, 60% - 80% were in vulnerable classes, and more

than 80% susceptible.


The impact of SLR is calculated by the formula

CVI impact =(0.5 x ∑ PPn)+ (0.5 x ∑ HPm)m

1n1

CVI least vulnerable …..(3.2)

where: PP = Physical Parameter;

HP = Human Parameter;

n and m = number of physical parameters and human influence

CVIleastvulnerable= value of vulnerability index (vulnerable-very

vulnerable)

CVI (SLR) =∑ Total impact5

𝑖=1

∑ Least Vulnerable Case5𝑖=1

…..(3.3)

Where the value of CVI (SLR) is determined as follows:

Not Vulnerable: 1 ≤CVI (SLR) <1,5

Less Vulnerable: 1.5 ≤CVI (SLR) <2.5

Medium Vulnerability: 2.5 ≤CVI (SLR) <3,5

High Vulnerability (Vulnerable): 3,5 ≤CVI (SLR) <4,5

Very Vulnerable: 4,5 ≤CVI (SLR) <5

4. RESULTS

Assessment of coastal vulnerability of coastal areas of Tuban Regency to sea level

rise (SLR) with physical parameters.

Fig 5. Map of CVI Value/Coastal Vulnerability Index of Tuban Regency on Sea

Level Rise (Physical Parameter)


Based on Fig 5, the grouping or range of CVI values with the physical parameters of

the SLR, the sub-districts are in the "moderate" and "very vulnerable" vulnerability

levels. Tambakboyo sub-district is at "very vulnerable" level in all coastal villages,

while Tuban District is at "vulnerable" and "medium" levels and barriers at

"vulnerable" and "very vulnerable" levels.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability of coastal areas of Tuban to SLR with human

activity parameters (Fig 6)

Fig 6. Map of CVI Value / Coastal Vulnerability Index of Tuban Regency on Sea

Level Rise (Parameter of Human Activity)

Based on Fig 6, the grouping or range of CVI values of human activities: Bancar,

Tambakboyo, Palang and Tuban sub-districts are at "vulnerable" to "moderate"

vulnerabilities. Jenu sub-districts were at“not vulnerable”to“very vulnerable” levels.

Impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR)

The coastal susceptibility assessment model of the impact of sea level rise uses the

CVI (SLR) matrix. Matrix displays the vulnerability index score of both physical

parameters and human activities) with the aim of prioritizing the impact of sea level

rise. Based on Table 3 it can be seen that the impact of sea level rise has 3 groups,

namely coastline retreat, waterlogging, and intrusion of sea water, with impact value

of 3.5 - 4 (vulnerable). The priority scale of the impact of sea level rise in the study

sites indicates the presence of inundation (4), seawater intrusion (4) and coastline

retreat (3.5).


Coastal of Tuban Regency most susceptible to inundation (CVI = 4) means threat of

damage to soil loss due to inundation of coastal erosion Effect of human activity

parameters may increase vulnerability to pools and the absence of coastal protection

(at the long coastal structuring research location of 22,640 M or 34% of the existing

coastal length, and the natural protective length in this case the mangrove 9406 m

wide and 294 m wide).

The coastline retreat (CVI SLR = 3.5) is the most significant problem of coastal

Tuban district. So, engineering of coastal areas is very important because it shows

vulnerability to coastal erosion due to rising sea levels. The physical parameters of the

coastal coast of Tuban will increase due to human activities such as sand mining,

reclamation of dock development. Fig 7 shows the effect of physical and human

parameters equally affecting coastal vulnerability of Tuban district.

Fig 7. Effects of Physical Parameters and Human Activity Levels on the Impact of

Sea Level Rise

Table 3. Matrix of the Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Research Sites

Impact Physical Parameters Parameter of Human Activities Total

value

Lowest

Vulnerability

Index

CVI

Impact

Impact

Class Parameter 1 2 3 4 5 Total No Parameter 1 2 3 4 5 Total

Coastline

Setback

(Beach

Erosion)

1 Coastal Geomorphology 1 4 1 Mining of sand 1 1

2 Ground Surface Level 1 5 2 Beach reclamation 1 1

3 Average Tidal ride 1 5 3 Natural Protection 1 5

4 Significant Wave Height 1 1 4 Coastal Protection Structure 1 3

5 Relative sea water level rise 1 5

6 Coastline Changes 1 5

Total 1 0 1 4 25 Total 2 1 1 10 18.5 5 3.5 vulnerable

Inundation

(Flood

ROB)

1 Ground Surface Level 1 5 1 Natural Protection 1 5

2 Average Tidal ride 1 5 2 Coastal Protection Structure 1 3

3 Significant Wave Height 1 1


Total 1 0 3 16 Total 1 1 8 12 3 4 vulnerable

Intrusion

Sea water

in Ground

Water

1 Coastal Geomorphology 1 4 1 Ground Water Consumption 1 5

2 Ground Surface Level 1 5 2 Pattern of land use 1 3

3 Average Tidal ride 1 5

4 Significant Wave Height 1 1


Total 1 0 1 3 20 Total 1 1 8 14 3.5 4 vulnerable

139


The freshwater source of the coastal community of Tuban Regency comes from

ground water. The intrusion of sea water into ground water occupies the second rank

(CVI = 4). In this research has not been studied in depth about the map pemar of salt

ground water to brackish, both on shallow aquifer and deep aquifer and also to know

the cause of salt water salinity. The data obtained is the source of clean water use

from coastal communities through drilling wells with a minimum depth of 25 m.

5. DISCUSSION

Impact of Coastline Slope Degradation

Based on the validation of the model (Joesidawati and Suntoyo, 2017) using the

smallest error method, the Hennecke Method has a smaller value (0.245%) than the

Bruun Method (0.377%). So, the calculation of the impact losses from the shoreline

changes using the Hennecke method.

Fig 8 is a predicted shoreline change with the overlapped Hennecke Method with

high-resolution Google Earth imagery and Table 4 shows the extent of land affected

by the Hennecke Model shoreline retreat.

Fig 8. Lost Land Predictions Impacts of Hennecke Model Lines Degradation in 2050

(red) and in 2100 (pink) on Overlay with Google Earth Resolution High Image


Table 4 Extent and Percentage of Affected Lands of Hennecke Coastline Lines

Year

Average

Coastline

Lift

(m)

Lost area of

land (m2)

Percentage

Average Lost

Land / Area of

Village

Average

Percentage of

Land Missing /

Area of

District

Percentage

Average Lost

Land / Area of

Regency

2050 88,22 16.140.631,571 22,82% 0,26% 0,017%

2100 161,01 23.324.606,539 31,06% 0,37% 0,024%

The existing landuse shows that the strategic lands of the fishery and marine areas

affected by the SLR shoreline (Fig 9), the PPI (100%) and the National PPI (99.99%),

and Tambak (31.15%).

Fig 9. Area of Land due to Coastline Degradation in 2050 and 2100 by Land Use

Type Existing


Impact of inundation due to SLR

Regional Prediction Flooded in 2050 and 2100 for the district of Tuban in Fig 10, Fig

11 and Table 5

Fig 10. Predicted Area Flooded by Sea Level Reversal in 2050 on Overlay with High

Resolution Image Google Earth

Fig 11. Regional Prediction Flooded by Sea Level Reversal in 2100 on Overlay with

High Resolution Image Google Earth


Table 5. Area and Percentage of Land Flooded by Impact of SLR

Year Sea Level

Rise (m)

Land area was

Flooded (m2)

Average

Percentage of

Land Area

Flooded / Area

of Village

Average Percentage

of Land Area

Flooded / Area of

District

Average Percentage

of Land Area / Area

of Regency

2050 1,44 30.102.134,636 10,04% 0,24% 0,016%

2100 2,64 71.396.054,437 25,36% 0,57% 0,037%

When viewed from the type of land use, some potential lands such as rice fields,

ponds, settlements are also affected by inundation due to SLR as shown in Fig 12,

infrastructure in the field of fisheries and marine affected by the largest inundation is

the National PPI, regional Jenu port, TPI, Year 2100 above 65%, while for the field of

fisheries activities that ponds flooded 71.57% in 2050 and 87% in 2100.

Fig 12. Land which Flooded in 2050 and 2100 by type of Existing Land Use


Based on Fig 13 it can be seen that the effect of intrusion is also influenced by sea

level rise. It was evident that the intrusion of seawater into groundwater at a moderate

rate occurs in the longer-flooded areas and coastal retreat. Based on the distribution

map of existing DHL value in Tuban Regency it was seen that groundwater slightly

brackish in shallow aquifer in the area ie groundwater having DHL value more than

1500 μS/cm in four subdistricts (Bancar, Tambakboyo, part of Jenu and Palang). The

area has a distance with the sea was quite close, but in some places the location was

also still found water conditions that are not salty. A slightly brackish groundwater

distribution area occupies an aquifer clay aquifer which is alluvial deposits with

generally low permeability and flat topography to ramps, making it very susceptible

to sea water intrusion. Ground water was slightly brackish dominated by aquifers in

the form of gampingan sands to clay gampingan, but some also still enter into the

alluvial sedimentary aquifer system. In addition to the differences in the system of

rocks of the constituent aquifer distance between wells with sea water is also one of

the factors causing differences in the level of ground water salinity.

Fig 13. Intrusion Conditions of Sea Water Research Sites (Groundwater Sampling

300 m from the Beach in October-November 2014)


6. CONCLUSIONS

Based on the CVI Matrix (SLR) it can be seen that the impact of the increase in SLR

is 3 groups: causing coastline retreatment, inundation, and intrusion of sea water, with

impact value of 3.5 - 4 (vulnerable).

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgment of the authors convey to all parties involved, especially at the

Institute of Technology Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya and the University of PGRI

Ronggolawe Tuban

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Sea Level Rise-Impacted Tuban Coastal Vulnerability Model · 2019. 4. 17. · Tuban Regency is one of the coastal cities located in East Java Province, Indonesia Geographically Tuban