Does the Area with Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Correlate With the Area of Sea Water with

Chlorophyll Concentration 3-60 mg/m^3?

By: Erica Johnson & Hailey MolinaTeacher: Ms. Everett

Southridge High SchoolGrade: 12th & 11th

Images

Area of the world: Global

Seawater temperature anomaly (left) Chlorophyll Concentration (right)

Dates used: September 2002- September 2011

Parameters depicted in image: – Warm (red) and cold (blue) Sea Surface

Anomalies in the left images.– Chlorophyll concentration (brightest

yellow is 60 mg/m^3) in the right images.

Images:

September 2002

September 2003

September 2004

September 2005

September 2006

September 2007

September 2008

September 2009

September 2010

September 2011

Background•Over the last few centuries the

average global temperature of Earth has increased and in the last 100 years it has increased by 0.6 degrees celsius.

•The Arctic sea ice has significantly decreased over the past few decades.

•Increases in Harmful Algae Blooms (HAB) in the past few years have been associated with rising sea surface temperature.

Question and Hypothesis•Question:Does the Area with Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Correlate With the Area of Sea Water with Chlorophyll Concentration 3-60 mg/m^3 between September 2002 and September 2011?

•Hypothesis:The rising global sea surface temperature will significantly increase areas of water with concentrations of chlorophyll from 3-60 mg/m^3.

Variables:

•Independent Variable:Time (Years in the month of September)

•Dependent Variable:-The area of Sea Surface-Chlorophyll concentration-Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

Methods

•Source of Images:NASA NEO

•Sources of Background Information: • NOAA

Data Analysis Steps

1.How to prepare the images for measurement:a.Open image in "ImageJ"b.Change image by clicking Image>Type>RGB Colorc.Change image again by clicking Image>type>RGB Stackd.For the sea surface temperature anomaly picture scroll to the "Blue" slide of the

stack (the image farthest to the right)e.For the Chlorophyll concentration picture scroll to the "Green" slide of the

stack (the center image)

2.Set the scale to 20.49 km per pixel3.Set the threshold:

a.For Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly set the threshold to include pixel values between 11 and 240

b.This will include Temperature anomalies from +1 to +4 degreesc.For Chlorophyll Concentration set the threshold to include pixel values between

128 and 255d.This will include concentration amounts from 3-60 mg/m^3

4.Set measurements to area and limit to threshold then measure the image

RESULTS

DATA

TABLE

Date (year) Area of Ocean with Chlorophyll Concentration 3-60 mg/m^3 in km^2

Area of Sea Anomaly Temperature in km^2 from +1 - +4

2002 56954003 91021094

2003 56669447 94684559

2004 59577099 98961894

2005 55306976 1.02E+08

2006 55844404 1.1E+08

2007 57295387 1E+08

2008 61276507 1.14E+08

2009 64793778 1.16E+08

2010 46771563 1.15E+08

2011 54375756 1.1E+08

Results: Graph

Correlation Analysis

•A correlation test was performed on the data using Excel

•The correlation analysis result was r=-0.012234481

•(r ranges from 1 to -1, where r=0 means there is zero correlation)

•The r value of the data was very close to zero meaning that there is no correlation between Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and chlorophyll concentration

Findings and Discussion•The highest area of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies occurred in September of 2009

•The lowest area of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies occurred in September of 2002

•The highest area of Chlorophyll Concentration between 3-60 mg/m^3 occurred in September of 2009

•The lowest area of Chlorophyll Concentration between 3-60 mg/m^3 occurred in September of 2010

•Data Trend: Although the Sea Surface Temperature has an effect on the Chlorophyll concentration there is no definitve association between the two according to our research

Conclusion

•Hypothesis: We refute our hypothesis because our research showed no correlation between Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll Concentration, although we could see an effect between the two, the time frame was too short to confirm a correlation.

•Future Prediction: We predict that the relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll Concentration will show a more consistent correlation over the next 100 years.

Limitations

•1. The time span of data was relatively short making it difficult to detect a correlation•2. The distance scale was not 100% accurate because we had to draw the measured line by hand.•3. For Chlorophyll measurements the distance scale had to be re-drawn for half of the years because ImageJ crashed.

Implications for Humans

Some implications for humans include:

•Global Warming- This could cause the Arctic ice to melt submerging coastlines as well as slowing the global water conveyor to a halt causing an ice age.

•Stronger Hurricanes- When the temperature of the Earth rises the strength of hurricanes do as well.

Implications for Ecosystems

Some implications for ecosystems include:

•Increases in temperature could cause more Harmful Algae Blooms (HAGs) could cause harm to the other animals and plants around them and cause dead zones.

•Temperature change could harm aquatic species of plants and animals that require a specific temperature to survive.

Cited Sources

NEO NASA Earth Observatories. (2012, April). Retrieved from NASA NEO at http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Search.html.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration. (2012, April). Retrieved from NOAA at http://www.noaa.gov/.