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8/8/2019 Scott Adams Econimists Survey
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HOW ECONOMISTS VIEW THEPRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
A StudyConducted for
SCOTT ADAMS, INC.
by
The OSR GroupSeptember 2008
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 2
CONTENTS
Research Objectives 4
Study Methodology 6
Demographics of the Respondents 10
Political Profile of the Respondents 15
Familiarity with the Candidates Economic Programs 22 Most Important Economic Issues 28
Which Candidate Would Do the Best with Each Issue 40
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 3
CONTENTS
(continued)
Overall Perspectives on the Candidates
Economic Programs 60
Advice for the Candidates 80
Summary of Key Findings 89
Appendix (More Details on the Methodology) 94
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H
ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 4
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
To understand which Presidential candidate John McCain orBarack Obama -- is believed by U.S. economists to be best for
the economy overall, over the long term.
To evaluate which issues economists believe are mostimportant, as they relate to the U.S. economy.
To understand which candidate is expected to make the mostprogress dealing with the issues that economists see as mostimportant.
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ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 5
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES(continued)
To assess which candidate is expected to do the best job witheach of 20 potentially important economic issues.
To understand what types of economic advice economistswould offer to John McCain and to Barack Obama.
To evaluate these and other issues by a selection of keydemographics of U.S. economists.
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H
ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 6
STUDYMETHODOLOGY
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ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 7
PROJECT OVERVIEW
A total of 523 online interviews were conducted amongeconomists who appear on the American Economic
Associations opt-in membership list.
E-mail invitations were sent to 6,514 people on a list of AEAmembers who have agreed to receive surveys and other e-mailsfrom the Association.
The invitation to participate was sent on August 7, 2008. Thesurvey was closed to additional responses on August 11, 2008.
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H
ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 8
RESPONDENT SELECTION
To qualify for the survey, potential respondents had to meet twotests:
1. They had to confirm that they are members of the AmericanEconomic Association.
2. They had to be citizens of the United States.
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H
ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 9
AN IMPORTANT NOTE
The American Economic Association did not sponsor the survey,and is not responsible for the interpretation of the survey results.
Scott Adams, Inc., and The OSR Group, thank the AEA forproviding their opt-in membership list to serve as the sampleframe for this effort.
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ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 10
DEMOGRAPHICS OFTHE RESPONDENTS
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 11
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONOF THE ECONOMISTS
West(16%)
-- California 10%
Northeast(24%)
-- New York 8%
-- Pennsylvania 5%
South(33%)
-- Virginia 7%-- Maryland 6%
Midwest(24%)
-- Illinois 7%-- Michigan 4%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 12
WORK/PROFESSION
Academia/Education 65%
Consulting 9%
Government 9%
The financial industry 6%
Other business/corporation/industry 6%
Editor/Columnist 1%Think tank 1%
Other 2%
Retired/Not employed at present 5%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 13
GENDER
8
14
l (8 )
l (14 )
Eighty-six percent of the economists are male; 14% are female.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 14
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
43
1
10
11 7
14 L ss t $7 000 (7 )
$7 000 -
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 15
POLITICAL PROFILE OFTHE RESPONDENTS
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 16
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
27
3 2
3
48
17
D r t (48 )
R bl (17 )
I t (27 )
b rt r (3 )
Ot r rt (2 )
N t r g st r (3 )
Almost half (48%) of the economists say they are registered Democrats.Only one in six (17%) are registered Republicans. Twenty-seven percentare registered as Independents.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 17
CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
28B r k Ob ( )
C (28 )
ls ( )
As of today, 66% of the economists say they would vote for BarackObama, the Democratic candidate. Twenty-eight percent would votefor the Republican candidate, John McCain.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 18
CANDIDATE PREFERENCE:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
0
78
33
93
1
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
D o R pu l n Ind p nd n
B kO
ohnC n
Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Obama, and Republicans favorMcCain (although 15% of the Republicans favor Obama). By 60-33%,the Independents favor Obama.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 19
CANDIDATE PREFERENCE:BY INCOME
8
229
1
9
28
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
$100 $100 $200 $200
B kO
ohnM C n
There are no statistically significant differences by income, although theeconomists who earn less than $100,000 are slightly less likely to favorObama.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 20
PROVIDING ECONOMIC ADVICE
1
8
s v vv (1 )
N v t v
v (8 )
Fifteen percent of the economists say they have provided economic adviceto one or more candidates at a national, state, or local level during thepast year. Eighty-five percent have not done so.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 21
PROVIDING ADVICE:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
9
78
89
1420
8
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
D o R pu l n Ind p nd n
Y s
No
Republican economists are more likely to have provided advice than areDemocrats or Independents.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 22
FAMILIARITY WITH THE CANDIDATESECONOMIC PROGRAMS
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 23
FAMILIARITY WITH McCAINSECONOMIC PROGRAM
3
27
91
f i i (27 )
So wh t f i i ( 3 )
Not f i i (9 )
Not t f i i (1 )
Twenty-seven percent of economists say they are very familiar with JohnMcCains economic program. In total, 90% say they are at least somewhatfamiliar with this program.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 24
FAMILIARITY WITH McCAINS PROGRAM:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
1
2 27
9
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
F McC F O
Sl
V l
Those who favor McCain are more likely to be at least somewhat familiarwith McCains economic program.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 25
FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMASECONOMIC PROGRAM
1
30
81
f i i (30 )
So wh t f i i ( 1 )
Not f i i (8 )
Not t f i i (1 )
Three in ten economists say they are very familiar with Barack Obamaseconomic program. In total, 91% say they are at least somewhat familiarwith this program.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 27
OVERALL FAMILIARITY WITHTHE TWO PROGRAMS
1
27 30
3
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
M C P O P
Sl
V l
Overall, the economists are about equally familiar with the two programs.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 28
MOST IMPORTANTECONOMIC ISSUES
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 29
HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
The respondents were shown a list of 20 issues and asked torate the importance of each. The question was worded asfollows:
Here are some issues that some people have said are importantto the U.S. economy. Please rate your own view of the importanceof each issue, as it relates to the U.S. economy. Use a scale of 1-10, where 10 means this issue is absolutely critical to theeconomy, and 1 means it is not important to the economy.
The order of presentation of the 20 items was randomized, toreduce bias. The items appear on the next two pages.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 30
THE ISSUES
International trade policy
Encouraging technology and innovation
The mortgage and housing crisis
Providing tax relief for the middle class Reducing the Federal budget deficit
Environmental protection, including reducing global warming
Education
Energy policy, including developing alternative sources of
energy Eliminating the estate tax
Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiestAmericans
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 31
THE ISSUES
(continued)
Immigration policy
Reforming bankruptcy laws
Extending unemployment insurance
Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation
Reducing the capital gains tax
Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurancesystem
Fixing the Social Security system
Health care policy
Reducing waste in government
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and homeland security
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 32
THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )
2% %7 % 7%
%
%
2 %
3 %
4 %
%
%
7 %
%
Edu ation Health are International
trade
Ener
The top four issues education, health care, international trade, and energy are each rated at least 8 in importance by 60% or more.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 33
THE NEXT SET OF ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )
2%%%
%
%
2 %
3 %
4 %
%
%
7 %
En oura in
te hnolo and
inno ation
ar in Iraq and
f hani tan and
ho eland
e urit
ort a e and
hou in ri i
The next three issues are each rated at least 8 in importance by 50% ormore.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 35
THE FOURTH SET OF ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )
29% 2 %
%
%
2 %
3 %
4 %
%
%
In rea in the
proportion of taxe paid
the ealthie t
eri an
Redu in a te in
o ern ent
The next two issues are each rated at least 8 in importance by 20% ormore.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 36
THE REST OF THE LIST
( a ed on % of - ratin )
The final seven issues are each rated at least 8 on the 1-10importance scale by fewer than 20% of the economists:
Providing tax relief for the middle class (16%) Reducing the capital gains tax (15%)
Extending unemployment insurance (14%)
Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurance system(13%)
Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (13%) Reforming bankruptcy laws (11%)
Eliminating the estate tax (9%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 37
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
For tho e ho fa or McCain
International trade (73%)
Education (64%)
Social Security (63%) Technology and innovation
(58%)
Iraq, Afghanistan, andhomeland security (49%)
Reducing waste (46%)
Health care (45%)
Energy (42%)
Immigration (42%)
For tho e ho fa or O ama
Health care (77%)
Education (74%)
Energy (70%) Iraq, Afghanistan, homeland
security (63%)
Environment (61%)
Mortgage and housing crisis(59%)
Technology and innovation(59%)
International trade (57%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 38
THE ISSUES WITH THE LARGEST
PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCES
Favor McCain Favor Obama
Reducing capital gains tax % 4%
Reducing waste 6% 18%
Eliminating estate tax % 3%
Social Security 6 % 43%
Environment 12% 6 %Taxes paid by the wealthiest 5% %
Health care 45% %
Energy 42% %
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 39
A NOTE ABOUT SUBGROUPS
It is worth noting that those who favor Obama give higherpercentage ratings [in other words, higher proportions rate theissue at least 8 in importance] for 14 of the 20 issues.
It is also worth noting that those who claim to be most familiarwith the two candidates economic plans are most likely tochoose higher percentage ratings.
Those who say they are very familiar with McCains programchoose higher percentages for 14 issues than do those who are
less familiar. Those who say they are very familiar with Obamas program
choose higher percentages for 16 issues than do those who areless familiar.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 40
WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD DOTHE BEST WITH EACH ISSUE
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 41
HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
After they rated the importance of each of the 20 issues, therespondents were asked to note which candidate would do thebest job with each issue. The question was worded as follows:
H
ere is the list of issues once again. Now please note which of thetwo Presidential candidates you believe would do the best job witheach of these issues. Please use the scale you see below for yourratings.
If you wish, you may refer to the candidates Web pages to reviewtheir proposed policies, but you do not need to do this. The
following links will get you to the economic policy pages at eachcandidates Web site:
John McCain: http://www.johnmccain.com/Issues/jobsforamerica/
Barack Obama http://origin:barackobama.com/issues/economy/
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 42
HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
(continued)
For this question, the economists used a 7-point scale, with
McCain at 1, no difference at 4, and Obama at 7. Therefore,any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would do the best jobwith that issue, and any response of 5-7 meant Obama woulddo the best job with that issue.
As was true earlier, the order of presentation of the 20 itemswas randomized, to reduce bias.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 43
McCAINS STRONGEST ISSUES
(% ho a he ou d do the e t jo )
Reducing the capital gains tax 72%
Eliminating the estate tax 63%
International trade policy 51%
Reducing waste in government 38%
Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security 30%
Immigration policy 29%
Reducing the deficit 29%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 44
OBAMAS STRONGEST ISSUES
(% ho a he ou d do the e t jo )
Taxes paid by the wealthiest 79%
Environmental protection 72%
Raising the minimum wage 70%
Extending unemployment insurance 68%
Health care 65%
Unemployment Insurance system 65%Energy 61%
Education 59%
Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security 58%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 45
HOW THE CANDIDATES COMPARE ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
The charts on the next seven pages compare the candidates onall 20 issues, in order of the importance of these issues. Foreach issue, the charts show the percentage who say McCain
would be best, the percentage who say Obama would be best,and the percentage who say there would be no differencebetween the candidates.
In total, Obama rates higher than McCain on 16 of the 20
issues; McCain rates higher than Obama on four issues.
Among the most important issues, Obama rates higher on 11 ofthe top 12.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 47
COMPARISONS ON THENEXT MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
8
34 11
1 43
17
22 2330
0
20
40
0
80
100
120
E T I s S
M C
N
O
Obama is strongly preferred on each of the next three issues.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 48
COMPARISONS ON THETHIRD SET OF ISSUES
72
3
19
41 40
41
1824
9
0
20
40
0
80
100
120
M H s S l S E
M C
N
O
Obama is also the clear choice for the next three issues. The difference isparticularly striking for environmental protection.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 49
COMPARISONS ON THEFOURTH SET OF ISSUES
79
38
37 33
7
33
29 2914
0
20
40
0
80
100
120
I on T x s p d h
l h s
M C n
No d n
O
Obama is also preferred for these next three issues, and especially forincreasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans. Notethat Obama is seen as the best choice (by 37-29%) for reducing theFederal budget deficit.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 50
COMPARISONS ON THEFIFTH SET OF ISSUES
17
2
11
1
4
3819
72
0
20
40
0
80
100
120
R s M l l ss x
l
R l
s x
M C
N
O
On two of these three issues the 13th and 15th most important McCainis seen as the better choice. Obama is best for providing tax relief to themiddle class.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 52
COMPARISONS ON THELEAST IMPORTANT ISSUES
1731
20
49
20
3
0
20
40
0
80
100
120
R k l s El s x
M C
N
O
Obama is the choice for reforming bankruptcy laws. McCain is clearlypreferred for eliminating the estate tax.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 53
DEFECTIONS ON THE MOST
IMPORTANT ISSUES
The next six pages show how opinions about who would be bestfor the six most important issues vary by candidate preference
and by party identification. In other words, to what extent dothose who support McCain overall defect to Obama forparticular issues, and to what extent do those who supportObama overall defect to McCain.
Similarly, to what extent do Democrats and Republicans crossparty lines on the most important economic issues. The viewsof Independents on each issue are also shown.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 54
WHO WOULD BE BEST AT EDUCATION:BY KEY SUBGROUPS
For the most important issue education -- McCain supportersbelieve McCain would do the best job on this issue, but by asmaller margin than the one by which Obama supporterschoose Obama. The same is true for Democrats and
Republicans. Independents believe Obama would do the bestjob on education.
McCain supporters (Obama 16%; McCain 41%)
Obama supporters (Obama 81%; McCain 2%)
Democrats (Obama 82%; McCain 2%)
Republicans (Obama 19%; McCain 41%)
Independents (Obama 50%; McCain 18%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 55
WHO WOULD BE BEST AT HEALTH CARE:BY KEY SUBGROUPS
For the second most important issue health care the samepattern holds. McCain supporters believe McCain would do thebest job on this issue, but by a smaller margin than the one bywhich Obama supporters choose Obama. The same is true,
once again, for Democrats and Republicans. Independentsbelieve Obama would do the best job on health care.
McCain supporters (Obama 20%; McCain 59%)
Obama supporters (Obama 88%; McCain 2%)
Democrats (Obama 89%; McCain 4%)
Republicans (Obama 24%; McCain 58%)
Independents (Obama 56%; McCain 25%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 56
WHO WOULD BE BEST AT INTERNATIONALTRADE: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
For the next issue international trade Obama supporters arejust as likely to pick McCain as they are to pick their owncandidate. McCains international trade policy also picks up
significant support from Democrats and from Independents.
McCain supporters (Obama 3%; McCain 86%)
Obama supporters (Obama 37%; McCain 37%)
Democrats (Obama 42%; McCain 34%) Republicans (Obama 5%; McCain 82%)
Independents (Obama 16%; McCain 63%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 57
WHO WOULD BE BEST AT ENERGY:BY KEY SUBGROUPS
For the next issue energy policy the pattern is the same asfor the first two issues. Obama does better among McCainsupporters than McCain does among Obama supporters.
Independents think Obama would do the best job on energy.
McCain supporters (Obama 14%; McCain 63%)
Obama supporters (Obama 84%; McCain 4%)
Democrats (Obama 86%; McCain 4%) Republicans (Obama 18%; McCain 65%)
Independents (Obama 50%; McCain 26%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 59
WHO WOULD BE BEST AT IRAQ,AFGHANISTAN, AND HOMELAND
SECURITY: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
On this issue, McCain supporters believe McCain would do thebest, and Obama supporters believe Obama would do the best.The fact that there are more Obama supporters overall explains
why this issue is in the Obama column. Independents favorObama.
McCain supporters (Obama 10%; McCain 81%)
Obama supporters (Obama 81%; McCain 10%)
Democrats (Obama 81%; McCain 12%)
Republicans (Obama 16%; McCain 74%)
Independents (Obama 52%; McCain 37%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 60
OVERALL PERSPECTIVES ON THE
CANDIDATES ECONOMIC PROGRAMS
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 61
MAKING THE MOST PROGRESS HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
After the discussion of specific issues, the economists wereasked which candidate would be best on the issues ofimportance. The question was worded as follows:
Overall, which candidate do you think would make the mostprogress on the issues you believe are most important to theeconomy overall?
Once again, the respondents were asked to use a 7-point scale,
with McCain at 1, no difference at 4, and Obama at 7.Therefore, any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would makethe most progress, and any response of 5-7 meant Obamawould make the most.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 62
WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS
32
0
8
B r k Ob ( 0 )
N ff r (8 )
M C (32 )
Overall, 60% of the economists say Barack Obama would make the mostprogress on important economic issues. Thirty-two percent pick JohnMcCain.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 63
WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
49
8
37
90
108
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
D o R pu l n Ind p nd n
B kO
ohn
M C n
Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, and Republicans chooseMcCain. Independents pick Obama, by 49-37%.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 64
WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
1
9091
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
80
90
100
F o M C n F o O
B kO
ohn
M C n
Not surprisingly, those who favor each candidate overall also believe thatcandidate would do best with the most important economic issues.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 65
WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY INCOME
8
27
38
8
31
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
$100K $100K $200K $200K
B kO
ohn
M C n
The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. Otherwise, thereare no significant differences by income.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 66
WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM
32
30
32
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
l L ss l
B ckO
ohn
McC n
Those who are very familiar with the McCain economic program areabout as likely to believe Obama would do the best job as are those whoare less familiar with McCains program.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 68
WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSELECTED McCAIN
(open-ended que tion)
Prefer his economic policy 22%
Prefer his trade policy 12%More likely to reduce government/Less regulation 9%
More experienced 7%
McCain understands economics 4%
Disagree with Obamas policies 17%
Disagree with Obamas trade policy 5%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 69
WHY McCAIN IN THERESPONDENTS OWN WORDS
McCain could be less inclined to make changes, which will bebetter for the economy. Obama will try to leave his mark in thesociety, which is bad. Never underestimate a politician'scapacity to screw up the economy.
Sen. McCain appears to favor a greater reliance on the marketand less on taxation or regulation, which is an approach I favor.
In most cases, McCain favors doing the things like free tradethat will most help the economy and opposes things likeincreasing and indexing the minimum wage which would hurt it.
Republicans are better for business and capitalism. McCain understands that there is no free lunch. He will
encourage private initiative and take more seriously our long-term fiscal crisis.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 70
WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSELECTED OBAMA
(open-ended que tion)
Prefer his economic policy 15%
Prefer his health care policy 9%
He is intelligent/educated 8%Good advisors 7%
More likely to bring about change 7%
Agree with his values/positions 6%
Prefer his energy policy 6%
Disagree with McCains policies 8%
McCain wants to maintain Bush policies 6%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 72
WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSAY THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE
(open-ended que tion)
Dislike both/It doesnt matter 28%
A President has limited ability to affect the economy 15%
They have similar views 15%
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WHO WOULD BE BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
31
9
10
B r k Ob ( 9 )
N ff r (10 )
M C (31 )
By almost exactly the same percentages as for the make the mostprogress question, 59% of the economists say Barack Obama wouldbe best for the long term; 31% say John McCain would be best.
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 75
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
4
80
39
88
97
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
7080
90
100
D o R pu l n Ind p nd n
B kO
ohn
M C n
Once again, Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, andRepublicans choose McCain. Independents pick Obama, by 46-39%.
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
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BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
1
8790
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
7080
90
100
F o M C n F o O
B kO
ohn
M C n
As was true earlier, those who favor each candidate overall also believethat candidate would be best for the economy, over the long term.
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
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BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY INCOME
7
2934
82
29
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
$100 $100 $200 $200
B kO
ohn
M C n
The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. The highestincome group is slightly more likely to prefer McCain than are the othergroups.
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
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BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM
32
37
28
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
l L ss l
B ckO
ohn
McC n
Those who are very familiar with the McCain economic program aremore likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than arethose who are less familiar with McCains program.
BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
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BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA PROGRAM
33
27
0
10
20
30
40
0
0
70
l L ss l
B kO
ohn
M n
Those who are very familiar with the Obama economic program aremore likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than arethose who are less familiar with Obamas program.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 80
ADVICE FOR
THE CANDIDATES
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 81
ASKING FOR ADVICE
Toward the end of the interview, the economists were asked tooffer advice to the two candidates. The questions were askedin an open-ended way, so that the economists could respond intheir own words. The two questions were worded as follows:
Lets say John McCains campaign asked you to offer someeconomic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from theperspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.
Lets say Barack Obamas campaign asked you to offer someeconomic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from theperspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 82
ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(open-ended que tion)
Focu on pecific po ic area (NET) %
-- Focus on health care 20%
-- Focus on energy policy 17%
-- Focus on education 11%-- Focus on immigration 8%
-- Focus on the environment 5%
Ta e (NET) %
-- Raise taxes 10%
-- Cut taxes 8%
-- Dont cut taxes 8%
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ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(continued)
Ta e (NET) continued
-- Focus on tax reform 7%
-- Eliminate the Bush tax cuts 5%
-- Scrap the Gas Tax Holiday idea 4%
Finance (NET) %
-- Cut/control spending 7%
-- Cut the deficit 7%-- Increase financial regulation 5%
-- Balance the budget 3%
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ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(continued)
Support free trade %
Defen e (NET) %
-- Get out of Iraq 7%-- Reduce military spending 3%
Fi Socia Securit %
Dont dri for oi 5%
Focu on ma er o ernment/ e re u ation %
Reduce/Remo e u idie %
In e t in infra tructure %
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 86
ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA(continued)
Ta e (NET) continued
-- Focus on tax reform 6%
-- Dont cut taxes 3%
-- Drop the windfall/excess profits tax 3%
Support free trade 6%
Finance (NET) %
-- Cut the deficit 9%
-- Cut/control spending 5%
-- Increase financial regulation 4%
-- Balance the budget 4%
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ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA(continued)
Fi Socia Securit %
Focu on ma er o ernment/ e re u ation 6%
Reduce/Remo e u idie 6%
Defen e (NET) 6%
-- Get out of Iraq 4%
-- Reduce military spending 3%
Increa e incenti e 5%
Fi Medicare %
In e t in infra tructure %
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A COMMENT ABOUT THE ADVICE
Note that the categories of advice are the same for bothcandidates. The percentages change somewhat, when onecandidate is perceived to need more advice in that area. Forexample, the percentage who tell Obama to support free trade is26%; only 13% offer this advice to McCain. On the other side,17% advise McCain to focus on energy policy, compared to14% who give this advice to Obama.
Note also that the specific policy areas that generate the most
advice education, health care, international trade, and energy are also the four areas that ranked as the most importantissues, according to the economists.
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SUMMARY OF
KEY FINDINGS
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SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
1. By a margin of 60-32%, economists believe Barack Obamawould be better than John McCain at making progress on theissues that are most important to the economy. (The remaining8% see no difference between the candidates on this measure.)
2. By an almost identical margin (59-31%), economists thinkObama would be best for the economy overall, over the longterm. (Ten percent say there would be no difference betweenthe candidates.)
3. If the election were held today, 66% of the economists wouldfavor Obama and 28% would favor McCain. (Six percent wouldfavor someone else.)
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
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SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS(continued)
4. Democrats make up 48% of the economists; only 17% say theyare Republicans. About three in ten (28%) are Independents.The Democrats are especially likely to favor Obama, and tobelieve Obama would be best for the economy. Similarly, theRepublicans favor McCain and believe McCain would be best
for the economy. By 60-33%, the Independents favor Obama.
5. From a list of 20 issues, the economists rank education as mostimportant to the U.S. economy (71% rate this issue either 8,9, or 10 in importance, on a 10-point scale). The next most
important issues are health care (67%), international trade(62%), and energy (60%). Following that are wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan and homeland security (58%), and technology andinnovation (also 58%).
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SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
(continued)5. Obama is seen as most likely to do the best job on 16 of the 20
issues that were discussed. McCain rates higher than Obamaon four issues. Among the issues seen as most important tothe U.S. economy, Obama rates higher than McCain on 11 ofthe top 12.
6. The top issues for McCain are:
Reducing the capital gains tax (72% say McCain would be betteron this issue);
Eliminating the estate tax (63%);
International trade policy (51%); and
Reducing waste in government (38%).
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 93
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
(continued)
7. The top issues for Obama are:
Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiestAmericans (79% say Obama would be better on this issue);
Environmental protection, including reducing global warming(72%);
Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (70%); and
Extending unemployment insurance (68%).
8. When asked to give advice to the candidates, the economistsfocus on the issues they had described as most important education, health care, international trade, and energy.
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 94
APPENDIX
(MORE DETAILS ONTHE METHODOLOGY)
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STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
All individuals on the AEAs opt-in list were asked to participatein the survey. Therefore the respondents were not sampled ina statistical sense. Those who chose to participate wereincluded among the respondents.
With that said, it is helpful to understand the rules for statisticalsignificance that would apply to random samples of similarsizes, as a guideline in understanding the importance ofdifferences among various subgroups of the data.
The maximum sampling tolerances that would apply to randomlyselected samples of various sizes are shown on the next page.These figures represent the 95% confidence level, which isbased on two standard deviations.
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MAXIMUM SAMPLING TOLERANCES(continued)
The sampling tolerances that apply to other subgroups of thedata depend on the numbers of interviews in those subgroups:
Numbers of Interviews Maximum Sampling Tolerance
400 + 5%
200 + 7%
150 + 8%
100 + 10%
50 + 14%