Scotland Decides

The Scottish battlegrounds that will decide

Westminster 2015

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Contents

POLITICS IN SCOTLAND ........................................................................................................................... 3

THE POLLS ........................................................................................................................................... 3

THE BATTLE ......................................................................................................................................... 4

THE INDEPENDENCE QUESTION ......................................................................................................... 4

SCOTTISH LABOUR .............................................................................................................................. 5

THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES .......................................................................................................... 5

SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ......................................................................................................... 5

THE SNP ............................................................................................................................................... 5

WHAT NEXT? ....................................................................................................................................... 6

SCOTLAND’S KEY BATTLEGROUNDS FOR WESTMINSTER GENERAL ELECTION 2015 ............................. 7

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine .............................................................................................. 7

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock ............................................................................................................... 7

Dumfries and Galloway ................................................................................................................... 8

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale ..................................................................................... 8

Dundee West .................................................................................................................................. 9

East Renfrewshire ......................................................................................................................... 10

Edinburgh East .............................................................................................................................. 11

Edinburgh South West .................................................................................................................. 11

Edinburgh West ............................................................................................................................. 12

Glasgow Central ............................................................................................................................ 12

Glasgow East ................................................................................................................................. 13

Gordon .......................................................................................................................................... 13

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander’s seat) ........................................ 14

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath ......................................................................................................... 15

Orkney and Shetland ..................................................................................................................... 16

Paisley and Renfrewshire .............................................................................................................. 16

Ross, Skye and Lochaber ............................................................................................................... 17

OTHER SCOTTISH SEATS THAT COULD IMPACT THE ELECTION RESULT ............................................... 18

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SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has become a key figure

during the campaign for Westminster 2015 and

Scottish seats are predicted to make the difference

between the Labour Party or the Conservatives

forming the next UK Government.

PLMR Scotland’s Lynn McMath examines how this

huge step-change in Scottish politics has happened

and analyses the seats that could make the difference

in May.

POLITICS IN SCOTLAND

Scottish politics has been turned on its head in the last year. SNP leader and Scotland’s first

female First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has proven herself to be a formidable opponent against

the might of Westminster and her party are predicted to hold the balance of power in May.

In last week’s seven-way national Leaders debate, Sturgeon clearly revelled in her opportunity

to hold David Cameron to account for five years of Tory austerity and cuts to welfare.

Throughout the referendum campaign she stated that the Westminster system means

Scotland doesn’t get the government it votes for – with the Conservatives representation

reduced to just one seat she may have a point.

Just seven months after defeat in the independence referendum, the SNP have snatched

victory from the jaws of defeat and are a party reborn. Unprecedented growth in their

membership to over 100,000 means that despite representing only one tenth of the UK

population they are now the third largest UK party. Only Labour and the Conservatives have

more registered members.

THE POLLS

Despite seeking to pull Scotland out of the UK, the SNP are now fighting for every Scottish

seat at Westminster with polls consistently predicting they will secure the majority of the 59

Scottish seats available at Westminster.

The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows that 43% of voters intend to vote for SNP candidates with

Labour behind on 27%. This is an increase of just one per cent since Jim Murphy became

leader of the Scottish Labour Party in December 2014 and suggests they would lose all but

12 of their current Westminster seats.

More detailed polling from Lord Ashcroft in February looked at individual seats and found that

voting intentions would translate to the SNP winning 56 out of the 59 available seats with only

Jim Murphy and Glasgow MP Willie Bain retaining seats for Labour and the last Tory MP David

Mundell holding onto his seat with a reduced majority.

This would wipe out the 11 seats the Lib Dems currently have in Scotland which may seem

an extreme scenario. However other polls have shown similar, if less stark, results with Labour

holding onto around 11 seats rather than the two Ashcroft suggests. Regardless, it’s clear the

polls cannot be ignored and each party must fight to secure every vote.

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THE BATTLE

Nationally, ComRes polling shows that across the UK, both the Conservatives and Labour

parties are sitting neck-and-neck so the outcome in Scotland on May 7th could be the deciding

factor on who holds the keys for Number 10. If the status quo were to be maintained then

Labour would undoubtedly form the next UK government. However as the polls suggest this

is unlikely to be the case, the result for every Scottish seat will be of greater significance than

ever before.

With everything to play for it’s clear the gloves are off. This week’s two Scottish Leaders

debates touched on key issues including the NHS, zero hours contracts, Trident and the deficit

but the focus was very much on who will form the next UK government.

With the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats Leaders reduced to bit players, Sturgeon and

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy duked it out. She offered to help make Ed Miliband Prime

Minister, he fervently declined any offer of assistance or suggestion it was needed.

During the first debate, one audience member stated that she’d been won over by the points

Murphy made and her previous indecision on who to vote for had been settled. Murphy was

flippant in his response, noting there were only 500,000 to go. Given the polls, the SNP’s

prominence in the UK press, and their potential role as kingmakers for any Labour

government, Murphy really needs to secure more than one vote at a time.

Despite receiving probably the loudest rounds of applause the audience weren’t always on

the First Minister’s side. She also encountered boos during the first debate when she failed to

rule out the possibility that the SNP’s Holyrood 2016 manifesto would include the promise of

another independence referendum. Plus during the second, she reiterated her party’s desire

for full fiscal autonomy for Scotland despite experts suggesting it would cost the Scottish

economy £7.6billion.

THE INDEPENDENCE QUESTION

Politically, 2014 was the year of the referendum and it was the issue that encompassed all

political debate north of the border in the months before voters went to the polls on September

18th.

Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, one thing was clear – never had Scots been

more engaged or passionate about their views on the country’s future. Ultimately the decision

was to stay with our UK neighbours and move forward as a United Kingdom. The legacy of

the referendum debate was more powers for the Scottish Parliament through the Smith

Commission, which will see more tax controlled by Holyrood and greater control over elements

of the welfare system.

However, there’s no doubt that the process, which included the Unionist parties working in

tandem as part of the Better Together campaign, along with increased levels of political

engagement in Scotland, has had a lasting impact on each of the four main parties.

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SCOTTISH LABOUR

While the SNP, in defeat, have been on the ascendancy, in victory the Scottish Labour party

has been in decline. Criticised for working alongside the Conservatives and the Liberal

Democrats as part of the Better Together campaign, the party has struggled. The untimely

departure of the leader of the Scottish party, Johann Lamont, who left with a sideswipe at the

UK party stating that Ed Miliband and co treated the Scottish party like ‘a branch office’ of

Westminster, triggered a leadership election just weeks after the referendum. This along with

200,000 Labour supporters voting ‘Yes’ in September and the progressive policies of the

increasingly left-wing SNP Scottish Government, has left Scottish Labour fighting to hold onto

their core vote.

THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES

The Conservatives currently have only one Scottish MP, David Mundell in Dumfriesshire,

Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Despite having a strong group within the Scottish Parliament it’s

unlikely their national performance in May will be heavily influenced by seats north of the

border. There is perhaps the chance for a couple more MP’s in former Tory heartlands in the

south of Scotland but this isn’t going to affect the battle between the SNP and Labour for the

greatest number of Scottish seats in Westminster.

SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

For the Liberal Democrats it’s a different story. They have 11 sitting MPs, several of whom are

prominent members of the party. Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary to the Treasury would

be a real loss for the Lib Dems, as would Secretary of State for Scotland, Alistair Carmichael

and former leader Charles Kennedy. Their decision to go into coalition with the Conservatives

is also likely to see a backlash from the party faithful so maintaining a presence in traditional

Lib Dem areas, such as the Highlands of Scotland, will be a key election target.

THE SNP

A year ago it was unlikely anyone was talking about the SNP playing such an important part

in the General Election as they are now. Yet despite both the Conservatives and Labour ruling

out the possibility of forming a coalition with the Scottish nationalists, if the polls are correct

then they could well hold the balance of power in Westminster by becoming the third largest

party there.

If as Sturgeon claimed this week, the SNP are working to put Labour in to Number 10, it won’t

come for free. Salmond, who is running in the Gordon constituency, has suggested his party

would be in such a powerful position they would effectively be able to write Labour’s first

budget and demand £180billion for public spending north of the border. Or if the Conservatives

try to form a Government he has also suggested that his party would use that position to block

any attempts by voting against an inaugural Queen’s speech to push Labour into power.

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WHAT NEXT?

If the polls are accurate then all 59 seats in Scotland will play a part in determining the outcome

of the election. However with just four weeks to go and all to play for nothing is guaranteed

and from the Western Isles to the Borders party activists of all colours will be out knocking on

doors each and every day to coax every vote they can for their candidate.

While every constituency is a battleground, we have looked in detail at the most high profile

and hotly contested seats to analyse how Scottish votes will influence the UK outcome in May.

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SCOTLAND’S KEY BATTLEGROUNDS FOR

WESTMINSTER GENERAL ELECTION 2015

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

13,678 (30.3%) 6,159 (13.6%) 17,362 (38.4%) 7,086 (15.7%) 3,684 (8.2%)

The current MP Sir Robert Smith has been the Lib Dem MP

since its creation in 1997. However, according to the latest polls

he looks set to lose the seat with a collapse in Lib Dem support

in the constituency.

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine is a key target seat for the

Tories, but polls suggest that the SNP candidate, local party

activist Stuart Donaldson, enjoys a 14% lead.

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

11,721 (25.5%) 21,632 (47.1%) 4,264 (9.3%) 8,276 (18%) 9,911 (21.6%)

Ayr is a mixed working and middle-class area and the

constituency also includes former mining villages. The rural and

coastal areas of Carrick have previously supported

Conservative candidates in local elections and they maintain a

decent share of the vote.

When first elected in 1997, the current MP, Sandra Osborne

was the constituency’s first ever Labour MP and also first ever

female MP. However, with the SNP ahead by 11% in the latest

polls it will be a tough seat for Labour to hold. Osborne’s chief

competition is Corri Wilson, an SNP councillor for Ayr East ward

in South Ayrshire.

SNP candidate Corri Wilson

SNP candidate Stuart Donaldson

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Dumfries and Galloway

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

16,501 (31.6%) 23,950 (45.9%) 4,608 (8.8%) 6,419 (12.3%) 7,449 (14.3%)

The Dumfries and Galloway area has gone by various

constituency names and had a number of boundary changes

over the years, but traditionally it was a Conservative heartland

that has changed hands only twice since 1931. In 2001 it

became the only Scottish seat to return a Conservative MP to

Westminster but boundary changes saw it go to Labour’s

Russell Brown in 2005.

Brown increased his majority to over 7,000 votes ahead of the

Conservatives in 2010. However, the latest polls put the SNP

ahead with a swing of 20% from Labour to the SNP, and Labour

are currently languishing in third place behind the

Conservatives.

SNP candidate, Richard Arkless recently criticised the UK coalition for failing to provide fuel

rebates for the area in the latest budget and Conservative candidate Finlay Carson has seen

the party put their weight behind him with a series of high profile visits to the area. This could

be one of the closest races for a Scottish Westminster seat with Labour reluctant to let any

seat go, whilst the Tories have one of their best chances to regain some ground in Scotland.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

30% 28% 2% 34%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

17,457 (38%) 13,263 (28.9%) 9,080 (19.8%) 4,945 (10.8%) 4,194 (9.1%)

Currently the only Conservative seat in Scotland, Dumfriesshire,

Clydesdale and Tweeddale has had a varied electoral history.

The Dumfriesshire area has long been dominated by the

Conservatives, while Clydesdale was formerly a safe Labour

territory and Tweeddale had been a Liberal/Lib Dem seat since

1983. At the Scottish Parliament the area is part of the South

Scotland region and is represented by Labour, Conservative and

SNP members in the various constituency areas and on the

regional list.

Current Labour MP, Russell Brown

David Mundell, Conservative MP

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Scotland Office Minister, David Mundell, was first elected to the seat in 2005, and since then

has been the only Conservative MP representing a Scottish Westminster constituency. His

re-election in 2010 saw him returned with an increased majority (1.9%). He faces a close fight

this year, with both SNP and the Tories on 34%.

SNP candidate Emma Harper is a former nurse and was a local campaigner for Women for

Independence. The Conservatives will without doubt put campaigning in this area at the top

of their list as they will not want to lose their last remaining Scottish MP.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

34% 18% 7% 34%

Dundee West

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,461 (9.3%) 17,994 (48.5%) 4,233 (11.4%) 10,716 (28.9%)

7,278 (19.6%)

Scottish Labour’s sitting MP Jim McGovern recently withdrew as

the party’s candidate due to ill health. Replacing him is Michael

Marra, brother of Labour’s Holyrood health spokeswoman Jenny

Marra who is popular locally. Marra was involved in the

referendum and is a previous Labour advisor.

He will have a tough fight on his hands, but may have the

potential to lure other unionist supporters away from the ailing

Tories and Lib Dems in the area.

The Dundee City council area had the highest percentage of ‘Yes’

voters across all Scotland so the 27% swing to SNP from Labour

that Ashcroft suggests is perhaps not a huge surprise.

The SNP candidate Chris Law was a prominent campaigner in the run-up to the referendum

travelling the country in a military fire engine dubbed the Spirit of Independence

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

6% 25% 3% 59%

Labour's newest candidate Michael Marra

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East Renfrewshire

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

15,567 (30.4%) 25,987 (50.8%) 4,720 (9.2%) 4,535 (8.9%) 10,420 (20.4%)

Jim Murphy’s recent ousting of Johann Lamont to become

Scottish Labour leader as well as his 100 Towns in 100 Days tour

ahead of the referendum vote have probably contributed to

Murphy’s seat being cited as one of the few the Labour party are

expected to retain in May.

His patch in East Renfrewshire was the Conservatives safest

Scottish seat in Westminster until the Labour landslide of 1997,

when Murphy was voted in as MP for the area then known as

Eastwood. He has retained it ever since.

Murphy served in Gordon Brown’s cabinet as Secretary of State for Scotland, and under Ed

Miliband was Shadow Secretary of State for Defence before being demoted to the more junior

International Development brief. Since becoming Scottish Labour leader in December he has

reshuffled his team at Holyrood and made a string of policy announcements. He is running

again despite assurances that he will also stand in the Holyrood elections and become an

MSP next year which would likely trigger a by-election.

The SNP are fielding a relative unknown, Kirsten Oswald, which suggests they are choosing

which battles to focus their efforts on. However, with the latest poll placing Murphy just one

point ahead, the result may not yet be a foregone conclusion, particularly as it is an area highly

engaged in politics with the highest turnout in Scotland in the 2010 election.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

26% 34% 2% 33%

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy MP

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Edinburgh East

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

4358 (10.9%) 17,314 (43.4%) 7,751 (19.4%) 8,133 (20.4%) 9,181 (23%)

Edinburgh East is currently held by Labour’s Sheila Gilmore and

even with various boundary and name changes over the years it

has been a Labour stronghold since before World War II.

However all may be about to change as the constituency

recorded the largest Yes vote in the city at the referendum and it

is the only Edinburgh constituency where the SNP were runner-

up in 2010. It seems highly likely that the 20% of the vote the

SNP took in 2010 will increase, particularly given the high profile

of the SNP candidate.

Tommy Sheppard is the boss of the Stand Comedy Club and Scottish Comedy Agency and

was a high profile supporter of the independence campaign. He was previously a Labour

councillor but campaigned for independence despite his party membership. He later joined

the SNP in the aftermath of the referendum, and is benefitting from the change in rules which

allows new SNP members to stand as candidates.

Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

11,026 (24.3 %) 19,473 (42.8 %) 8,194 (18%) 5,530 (12.2 %) 8,447 (18.6%)

Since its creation, this constituency has been represented by

Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and frontman

of the Better Together campaign. Prior to this, Darling

represented the former seat of Edinburgh Central from 1987 to

2005. In November 2014, he announced that he was standing

down at the 2015 election, with long serving Edinburgh City

Councillor Ricky Henderson replacing him as the Labour

candidate.

Henderson has a high profile in the city having previously held

the transport brief and he is currently the convener of the

Council’s Health, Social Care and Housing Committee.

With the most recent Ashcroft poll giving the SNP a 13 point lead, Henderson faces a tough

battle against SNP candidate Joanna Cherry QC – co founder of pro-independence group

Lawyers for Yes – if he is to hold the seat for Labour.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

19% 27% 4% 40%

SNP Candidate Tommy Sheppard

Labour candidate Ricky Henderson

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Edinburgh West

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

10,767 (23.2%) 12,881 (27.7%) 16,684 (35.9%) 6,115 (13.2%) 3,803 (8.2%)

This was a safe Conservative seat for over 65 years until the

1997 general election. Since then it has been held by the Liberal

Democrats for Westminster with Mike Crockart, the current MP,

elected in 2010 with a slim majority of 8.2% (3,803). However a

year later the SNP’s Colin Keir snatched the Holyrood seat from

long-serving Lib Dem MSP Margaret Smith taking almost 36%

of the vote.

In December 2014, an opinion poll from Populus suggested the

SNP had 35% support in across Edinburgh, an increase of 23%

since the last Westminster election in 2010.

In Edinburgh West the SNP are fielding Michelle Thomson. Previously a musician and financial

services professional, Thomson had little political involvement prior to the referendum

campaign where she was Managing Director of the pro-independence group Business for

Scotland.

Glasgow Central

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

2,158 (7.1%) 15,908 (52%) 5,010 (16.4 %) 5,357 (17.5%) 10,551 (34.5%)

Former dentist Anas Sarwar was elected to Glasgow Central in

2010, succeeding his father Mohammad Sarwar, the first ever

Muslim MP in the UK. Sarwar was the deputy leader of the

Scottish Labour party under Johann Lamont and led the United

with Labour campaign during the referendum campaign. It is

widely believed the group was formed at the insistence of the

unions and core Labour members who refused to campaign with

the Conservatives as part of ‘Better Together’.

Sarwar was tipped to step into Lamont’s shoes but chose not

to run and instead stepped into Jim Murphy’s shoes in the

Westminster Labour team’s International Development brief. His main rival is the SNP

candidate, Alison Thewliss, who is also currently a Glasgow city councillor for the Calton ward.

Though Glasgow has traditionally been a Labour heartland, polling of this area suggests a

22% swing from Labour to the SNP, placing the SNP 10 points ahead.

Ashcroft Poll, February 2015

Con Lab LD SNP

5% 35% 3% 45%

SNP candidate Michelle Thomson

Anas Sarwar, current Scottish Labour MP

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Glasgow East

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

1,453 (4.5 %) 19,797 (61.6%) 1,617 (5%) 7,957 (24.7%) 11,840 (36.8 %)

As a Labour seat since the 1930s, this was regarded as one of

the party’s safest seats in Scotland. However a 2008 by-election,

triggered when the Labour MP David Marshall stood down due to

ill health, saw the SNP overturn a majority of over 13,000 votes

to win the seat against prominent Labour MSP Margaret Curran.

Curran then won the seat back in 2010 and stood down from

Holyrood a year later.

According to Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling in February,

Labour faces a wipe-out in its Glasgow heartlands such as

Glasgow East, with a swing to the SNP of as much as 25%

predicted.

The SNP candidate is the prominent SNP activist Natalie McGarry, who is convenor of the

party’s Glasgow Region Association. Glasgow East received the lowest percentage of votes

for the Lib Dems for any constituency at the 2010 general election, and is one of only two

constituencies across the whole UK that polled under 5% for the Conservative Party. The

constituency is also notable as one of the most deprived constituencies in Britain.

Ashcroft Poll, February 2015

Con Lab LD SNP

4% 37% 1% 51%

Gordon

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

9,111 (18.7 %) 9,811 (20.1%) 17,575 (36%) 10,827 (22.2%)

6,748 (13.8%)

Covering a central portion of Aberdeenshire and northern

elements of the Aberdeen City area, the Gordon constituency

has long been represented at Westminster by the Liberal

Democrats. Sir Malcolm Bruce has been the Liberal Democrat

MP since 1983. In 2010, he was re-elected, but with a reduced

majority – down nine per cent from 2005.

Bruce will not be running in this election, instead, the Lib Dem

candidate is Christine Jardine. She has previously run for

political office, most recently in the 2013 Holyrood by-election

for Aberdeen Donside, losing out to the SNP‘s Mark McDonald.

Scottish Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland –Margaret

Curran MP

Former First Minister Alex Salmond

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She has worked in Downing Street under the Cameron government as a policy advisor on

Scottish matters.

The main competition for the seat needs almost no introduction. Former First Minister, Alex

Salmond, announced in December last year, after much speculation, that Gordon would be

the constituency he would stand in. The area mirrors the Aberdeenshire East constituency in

the Scottish parliament which Salmond took with a majority of over 15,000 in 2011.

Having previously represented Banff and Buchan from 1987 to 2010, Salmond is a seasoned

Westminster veteran and his potential return to UK politics is already sending shivers up the

spine of the main UK parties. Conservative Defence Minister, Anna Soubry, most recently

describing Salmond’s interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr as “one of the most frightening I

have ever heard” following Salmond’s claims the SNP would ‘hold the power’ over Labour’s

first budget if they make it into Number 10.

The SNP machine will no doubt throw everything they have at this seat, after all it would be

an embarrassment for Salmond not to win. But the Lib Dems also have it all to lose. With many

of their 11 seats under threat they have a fight for survival but it’s likely that they will

concentrate on ensuring some of their biggest hitters retain their seats.

Ashcroft Poll, February 2015

Con Lab LD SNP

11% 14% 26% 43%

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander’s seat)

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

6,278 (13.3%) 10,407 (22.1%) 19,172 (40.7%) 8,803 (18.7%) 8,765 (18.6%)

Created in 2005, the constituency was formed by merging an

area from Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber with a section of

Ross, Skye and Inverness West.

The MP since its creation, Danny Alexander won the seat from

David Stewart, who was previously the Labour MP for Inverness

East, Nairn and Lochaber and is now a list Scottish Highlands

MSP and Scottish Labour’s Shadow Transport spokesman at

Holyrood.

The constituency is one of three Westminster constituencies

covering the Highland Council area.

Alexander is also Chief Secretary to the Treasury and keeping his seat will be a key goal for

the Lib Dems. In fact, in January 2015, Nick Clegg was accused of a “desperate ploy” to save

Alexander’s seat from the SNP by offering the possibility of completing a city deal for Inverness

ahead of the election – something which the Highland Council had been lobbying for

previously.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Danny Alexander

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The political make-up of the Highlands is fascinating with historically a large number of

independent candidates. The biggest group on Highlands Council consists of 35 Independent

councillors. However after the 2012 local elections the SNP, Lib Dems and Labour parties

formed a coalition to take over the running of the Council. The Leader of the Council is now

SNP member Drew Hendry who is Danny Alexander’s competition for the Westminster seat

in May.

Ashcroft Poll, February 2015

Con Lab LD SNP

10% 13% 21% 50%

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

4,258 (9.3%) 29,559 (64.5%) 4,269 (9.3%) 6,550 (14.3%) 23,009 (50.2%)

Former Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Gordon Brown, has been the MP for the area since 1983. In

2010 he secured just over half the vote with a huge majority of

23,000. In December 2014 he announced he was standing

down at this election to focus on his work as a United Nations

Special Envoy for Global Education.

If recent polling is anything to go by, the loss of Brown means this can no longer be considered

a safe Labour seat and their candidate, Fife Councillor Kenny Selbie faces an uphill battle

without the profile of his predecessor.

His main opponent is former SNP Vice Convener Roger Mullin. An SNP stalwart, Mullin is an

honorary professor at the University of Stirling, and is a seasoned veteran of the election circuit

having stood for Westminster unsuccessfully on five previous occasions. With polling putting

the SNP slightly ahead, it may be that 2015 is the year he is finally successful.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

7% 39% 3% 45%

SNP candidate Roger Mullin

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Orkney and Shetland

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

2,032(10.5%) 2,061 (10.7%) 11,989 (62%) 2,042 (10.6%) 9,928 (51.3%)

Lib Dem Secretary of State for Scotland, Alistair Carmichael

took 62% of the Orkney and Shetland vote in 2010 and has

been the MP for the islands since 2001. The Lib Dems have

represented the area since 1950 and it’s considered one of

their safest in the UK.

However, depending on which poll you read, Carmichael’s seat

may well be under threat. The SNP candidate is Danus Skene,

a retired teacher and former Lib Dem candidate in two previous

Westminster elections.

Skene’s move to the SNP has been promoted by the current

Westminster coalition who he believes have not served the islands well. He argues that the

SNP will offer Scotland’s islands more decision making powers, a policy which will be

favourable to many living there.

Paisley and Renfrewshire

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,979 (9.9%) 23,842 (59.6%) 3,812 (9.5%) 7,228 (18.1%) 16,614 (41.54%)

Formed in 2005, Paisley and Renfrewshire has traditionally

been a safe seat for the Labour Party, who currently hold a

majority of over 16,000. Douglas Alexander has been the

constituency MP since 2005, and was also MP for the

predecessor seat, Paisley South, from 1997-2005. He is

currently leading the Labour Party’s 2015 campaign as the Chair

of General Election Strategy. Alongside this role Alexander is

also Shadow Foreign Secretary and previously held other key

posts including Transport Secretary, Scottish Secretary, and

International Development Secretary during the previous

Labour Westminster administration.

Paisley and Renfrewshire could be a high profile loss for the Labour party. The latest Ashcroft

polling from February 2015 suggesting the SNP could take the seat, with the SNP at 48%

compared Labour on 40%, forecasting a potential swing of 25% from Labour to the SNP.

Douglas Alexander, Labour MP

Lib Dem Secretary of State for Scotland, Alistair Carmichael

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Ross, Skye and Lochaber

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

4,260 (12.2%) 5,265 (15.1%) 18,335 (52.6%) 5,263 (15.1%) 13,070 (37.5%)

Covering 12,000 square kilometres, Ross, Skye and Lochaber

encompasses the largest area of any constituency in the UK. It

has been represented at Westminster by former Lib Dem leader

Charles Kennedy since 1983 when he was elected at just 23

years old. Kennedy is defending a majority of 13,000 and has

20 years’ experience as the incumbent MP on his side.

However, Ashcroft polling suggests that Kennedy is set to be

yet another casualty of the SNP’s surge, and he is predicted to

lose the seat to SNP candidate Ian Blackford. With a five point

lead ahead of Kennedy, Blackford is an interesting character.

He has a chequered history within the SNP having served as treasurer of the party before

being removed from his post. He’s also known for having a volatile relationship with Alex

Salmond so if both become members of the SNP Westminster group there could be interesting

times ahead.

Ashcroft Poll

Con Lab LD SNP

8% 9% 35% 40%

Lib Dem Charles Kennedy

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OTHER SCOTTISH SEATS THAT COULD IMPACT THE

ELECTION RESULT

Airdrie and Shotts

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,133 (8.7%) 20,849 (58.2%) 2,898 (8.1%) (23.5%) 12,408 (34.6%)

Airdrie and Shotts has been home to a number of prominent Labour politicians including John

Reid, the former Labour Home Secretary and Defence Secretary, and Helen Liddell, former

Labour Scottish Secretary. Pamela Nash, who holds the unofficial title of baby of the House

having been elected at just age 25, currently has a majority of over 12,000 but Ashcroft polls

put the SNP ahead with a swing of 21% from Labour to the Nationalists.

Argyll and Bute:

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

10,861 (24%) 10,274 (22.7%) 14,292 (31.6%) 8,563 (18.9%) 3,431 (7.6%)

Argyll and Bute is one of the few four-way marginal constituencies in Britain. The Liberal

Democrats have held the seat since 1987, when they took it from the Conservatives.

The current MP is Alan Reid, who was first elected in 2001, but faces a tough fight in his

campaign for re-election. Currently the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP are capable of

taking the seat with a small swing of less than 6.3%.

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,374 (8.1%) 27,728 (66.6%) 3,519 (8.5%) 7,014 (16.9%) 20,714 (49.75%)

This seat replaced the former Monklands constituency at the 2005 general election, and is

mostly an urban area that covers the west of the North Lanarkshire council area. Tom Clarke

held the seat in its previous and current incarnations and has been an MP since 1982. Despite

the constituency’s longstanding support for Labour the seat is no longer safe, and Ashcroft

polling recently suggested a swing of over 26% to the SNP.

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Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,407 (8.3%) 23,549 (57.2%) 3,924 (9.5%) 9,794 (23.8%) 13,755 (33.4%)

The UK’s longest named constituency in Parliament has been represented by Labour’s

Shadow Pensions Minister, Gregg McClymont since 2010, who is fighting for re-election this

year.

The constituency covers the north of the North Lanarkshire council area, and small eastern

and northern parts of the East Dunbartonshire council area. It has traditionally been a solid

Labour seat, but this may change, with polling suggesting a large swing to the SNP.

The SNP’s candidate is Stuart McDonald (not to be confused with Stewart McDonald who is

contesting Glasgow South for the SNP) who previously worked on the Yes Scotland campaign.

Glasgow North

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

2,039 (7.1%) 13,181 (44.5%) 9,283 (31.3%) 3,530 (11.9%) 3,898 (13.2%)

Glasgow North is a diverse constituency spanning many middle and working class areas,

including Glasgow University and parts of the former Maryhill constituency, as well as the

former Kelvin seat which George Galloway represented first as a Labour MP and then as a

member of the Respect party.

The current MP is Ann McKechin of the Labour party. She is running for re-election but faces

stiff opposition from the SNP, which is polling over 22% ahead of the Labour party.

Glasgow North East

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

1,569 (5.3%) 20,100 (68.3%) 2,262 (7.7%) 4,158 (14.1%) 15,942 (54.2%)

The current MP, Willie Bain was first elected at a by-election in November 2009, triggered by

the resignation of former Speaker of the House, Michael Martin MP.

Glasgow North East is one of the most deprived constituencies in the UK, with high levels of

unemployment, many children on free school meals and low educational attainment.

According to the British Election Study, it is the most left-wing seat in the country.

Bain faces strong competition from the SNP candidate and former MSP, Anne McLaughlin,

who now works as a charity advisor and cultural producer. Ashcroft polls from February 2015

have the SNP ahead but predict that this will be one of the only two seats Labour will retain.

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Glasgow North West

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,537 (9.9%) 19,233 (54.1%) 5,622 (15.8%) 5,430 (15.3%) 13,611 (38.3%)

Traditionally a Labour heartland, the constituency includes affluent areas of the City such as

Jordanhill and Scotstoun as well more as the Drumchapel housing estate. The MP since 2000

has been Labour’s John Robertson who succeeded Scotland’s inaugural First Minister Donald

Dewar who represented the area when it was the smaller constituency known as Anniesland.

Ashcroft polling puts the SNP over 20% ahead.

Glasgow South

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

4,592 (11.5%) 20,736 (51.7%) 4,739 (11.8%) 8,078 (20.1%) 12,658 (31.6%)

Glasgow South’s current MP is Tom Harris of the Labour Party who has held the seat since

2001 when it was known as Glasgow Cathcart. Glasgow South includes some of the city’s few

Conservative-voting areas, whilst other areas such as Langside and Shawlands often vote

SNP, with Labour in second place and the Conservatives far behind. Ashcroft suggests a 20

plus swing to the SNP which puts their candidate Stewart McDonald just slightly ahead of the

incumbent.

Motherwell and Wishaw

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,660 (9.4%) 23,910 (61.1%) 3,840 (9.8%) 7,104 (18.2%) 16,806 (43%)

Former steel worker Frank Roy has held this seat for Labour since 1997. The

corresponding Scottish Parliamentary seat of the same name was held by Jack McConnell,

the former First Minister of Scotland from November 2001 until May 2007. Polling suggests

this seat is likely to be taken by the SNP in May, with a swing of 27% from Labour, overturning

Roy’s 61% majority in favour of SNP candidate, Councillor Marion Fellows.

West Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:

Con Lab LD SNP Majority

3,242 (7.7%) 25,905 (61.3%) 3,434 (8.1%) 8,497 (20.1%) 17,408 (41.2%)

The constituency of West Dunbartonshire has voted Labour since its creation in 2005. The

current MP is Gemma Doyle of the Labour Party, who was elected in 2010. Though Doyle

secured a solid majority of over 17,000 votes at the last election, the SNP are well ahead in

the polls (25%). Their candidate, Martin Docherty, is a long-serving councillor having first been

elected at just 21 which made him Scotland’s youngest councillor at that time.

ENDS

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For more insight on the battle for Scotland, or to speak to Lynn about how PLMR Scotland

could help you navigate Holyrood or Westminster, please contact her on 0131 344 4363 or

email lynn.mcmath@plmrscotland.co.uk

Lynn McMath heads up the PLMR Scotland office in

Edinburgh. She has worked in high profile press positions

in Scottish PR and politics for over 10 years.

Prior to joining PLMR she was advising front bench

Scottish Labour politicians in the Scottish Parliament. Lynn

also previously worked at a senior level at the City of

Edinburgh Council, including managing PR around high

profile projects and leading on the council’s

communications for the city’s tram project.