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Science, Policy, and Communication: All or Nothing
Jeff Rubin, Emergency Manager Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue
Tigard, OR, USA
Special thanks to Yumei Wang, Jay Wilson, Chris Goldfinger
Oregon’s Problem 7-15% chance of Mw9 CSZ quake in
next 50 years 32-42% chance of Mw7.5-8.5 SCSZ quake
3-5 minutes of shaking Amplification
Many structures not built to recent/ current code Codes don’t go beyond life safety
Extensive liquefaction possible Extensive impact on W coast, Pacific
Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP)
50-year Comprehensive Plan
Save Lives
Protect our Economy
Preserve our Communities
169 volunteers
$0 Funding
One-year Schedule
http://www.oregon.gov/omd/oem/pages/osspac/osspac.aspx
Strong Shaking and Tsunami
Liquefaction
Wikimedia Commons: Martin Luff
Chile, 2/27/10: weak soils (Y. Wang)
What Else? Interdependencies: Lifelines
Utilities Transportation Fuel Countless microbreweries and wineries
Difficult to grasp low-frequency, high-impact events Inadequate seismic knowledge +
inadequate codes Many “best practices” untested Exercise challenges
Oregon Education & Emergency Facilities
Median Fire/Law
Median K-12
Median CC
• OR far from resilient to impact of great Cascadia earthquake today • Casualties (1,000-10,000) • Economic loss (close to 20% of state GDP) • More than one million truckloads of debris
• Liquid fuel vulnerability
Key ORP Findings
OR Resilience Task Force
“The task force shall facilitate a comprehensive and robust plan to implement the strategic vision and roadmap of the ORP for responding to the consequences of naturally occurring seismic events associated with geologic shift along the CSZ by making recommendations about…” www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/Pages/Resilience-Taskforce.aspx
What Does Resilience Mean?
(Degenkolb)
Our Definition of Resilience
Resilience: Save lives, Reduce Losses, Speed Recovery, Rebuild Better
2015 Legislative Session State Resilience Officer > $200M for critical-facility rehab Funding facilitation for seismic
rehab of multi-occupant buildings Liability protection for privately-
owned utilities Require insurance to cover 90-day
Rx at walk-in pharmacy Still need to address additional
prescription for reserve
How Did We Get There?
Direct engagement on policy Help write legislation, serve as SMEs Testify; trusted resource Serve on committees Write letters (within boundaries)
Communicate Can you get your point across to non-
scientists without dumbing it down? Trusted resource
Follow up
Media
Pitch your story Know your reporters and editors Realistic expectations
Look for opportunities New Yorker articles OPB Unprepared
Does your employer have PIOs?
What’s Next? DOGAMI to adopt updated
inundation zones Science-based policy (ORS 455.446)
State-local hazards coordination on land-use options (esp. tsunami)
Mass care, shelter, medical care Fuel vulnerabilities ORTF report intended to address
first biennium only Foundation of sustainable process
Follow Up
Touch base at end of session Identify issues, priorities, and
strategies for next session Look for opportunities Don’t wait for things to come to you!
Opportunity
Front page Business focus TV evening news (2.5-minute feature) Drive-time news (2.5-minute feature)
Most news items are ≤ 30 sec
Jeff Rubin, PhD, CEM Emergency Manager
Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue 503-259-1199
[email protected] www.tvfr.com
