9 February 1979, Volume 203, Nu]

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FORTHE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCEScience serves its readers as a forum for the presenta-

tion and discussion of important issues related to the ad-vancement of science, including the presentation of mi-nority or conflicting points of view, rather than by pub-lishing only material on which a consensus has beenreached. Accordingly, all articles published in Science-including editorials, news and comment, and book re-views-are signed and reflect the individual views of theauthors and not official points of view adopted by theAAAS or the institutions with which the authors are af-filiated.

Editorial Board1979: E. PETER GEIDUSCHEK, WARD GOODENOUGH,

N. BRUCE HANNAY, MARTIN J. KLEIN, FRANKLIN A.LONG, NEAL E. MILLER, JEFFREY J. WINE

1980: RICHARD E. BALZHISER, WALLACE S. BROECK-ER, CLEMENT L. MARKERT, FRANK W. PUTNAM, BRY-ANT W. ROssITER, VERA C. RUBIN, MAXINE F. SINGER,PAUL E. WAGGONER, F. KARL WILLENBROCK

PubliherWILLIAM D. CAREY

EditorPHILIP H. ABELSON

Editora StaffManaging Editor Business ManagerROBERT V. ORMES HANS NUSSBAUMAssistant Managing Editor Production EditorJOHN E. RINGLE ELLEN E. MURPHYNcws Editor: BARBARA J. CULLITONNews and Comment: WILLIAM J. BROAD, LUTHER J.

CARTER, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, ELIOT MARSHALL,DEBORAH SHAPLEY, R. JEFFREY SMITH, NICHOLASWADE, JOHN WALSH. Editorial Assistant, SCHERRAINEMACKResearch News: BEVERLY KARPLUS HARTLINE,

FREDERICK F. HARTLINE, RICHARD A. KERR, GINABARI KOLATA, JEAN L. MARX, THOMAS H. MAUGH II,ARTHUR L. ROBINSON. Editorial Assistant, FANNIEGROOMConsulting Editor: ALLEN L. HAMMONDAssociate Editors: ELEANORE BUTZ, MARY DORF-

MAN, SYLVIA EBERHART, JUDITH GOTTLIEB, RUTHKULSTADAssistant Editors: CAITILIN GORDON, LOIS SCHMITT,

DIANE TURKINBook Reviews: KATHERINE LIVINGSTON, Editor;

LINDA HEISERMAN, JANET KEGGLetters: CHRISTINE KARLIKCopy Editor: ISABELLA BOULDINProduction: NANCY HARTNAGEL, JOHN BAKER; YA

Li SWIGART, HOLLY BISHOP, ELEANOR WARNER; JEANROCKWOOD, LEAH RYAN, SHARON RYAN

Covers, Reprints, and Permissions: GRAYCE FINGER,Editor; CORRINE HARRIS, MARGARET LLOYD

Guide to Scientific Instruments: RICHARD SOMMERAssistant to the Editors: RICHARD SEMIKLOSEMembership Recruitment: GWENDOLYN HUDDLEMember and Subscription Records: ANN RAGLAND

EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massachu-setts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20005. Area code202. General Editorial Office, 467-4350; Book Reviews,467-4367; Guide to Scientific Instruments, 467-4480;News and Comment, 467-4430; Reprints and Per-missions, 467-4483; Research News, 467-4321. Cable:Advancesci, Washington. For "Instructions for Contrib-utors," write the editorial office or see page xi, Science,29 September 1978.BUSINESS CORRESPONDENCE: Area Code 202.Business Office, 467-4411; Circulation, 467-4417.

Advertidng RepresentatvesDirector: EARL J. SCHERAGOProduction Manager: MARGARET STERLINGAdvertising Sales Manager: RICHARD L. CHARLESMarketing Manager: HERBERT L. BURKLUND

Sales: NEW YoRK, N.Y. 10036: Steve Hamburger, 1515Broadway (212-730-1050); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076:C. Richard Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); CHI-CArO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. Mich-igan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEVERLY HILLS, CALIF.90211: Winn Nance, 111 N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657-2772); DORSET, VT. 05251: Fred W. Dieffenbach, KentHill Rd. (802-867-5581)ADVERTISING CORRESPONDENCE: Tenth floor,1515 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212-730-1050.

mber 4380 SCIENCE

Scientific Relations with ChinaPresident Carter's decision to normalize relations with China has met a

mixed public response. However, in scientific and educational circles thereaction is more favorable. There one finds awareness and appreciation ofthe intellectual potentials of the Chinese, of the great inventive contribu-tions during past millennia, and a feeling that the United States should be onfriendly terms with a nation that includes one-fourth of the world's popu-lation. U.S. scientists are disposed to give Chinese visiting scholars a warmwelcome and many are eager to spend some time in China. The extent ofinterchange and cooperation will be determined by the Chinese rather thanby reluctance here.

Current official attitudes of the Chinese toward interaction are in sharpcontrast to those that prevailed only a few years ago. From 1948 to 1971there were few contacts. Then a gradual change occurred in which scienceand technology had a major role. A pivotal moment was the Nixon visit toChina in 1972. But even before that, scholarly groups here were trying tofoster relationships. In 1966 a Committee on Scholarly Communication withMainland China was formed to explore and pursue opportunities to facilitatescientific and other scholarly communication. The Committee included fourmajor sectors of American scholarly activities-the American Council ofLearned Societies, the National Academy of Engineering, the NationalAcademy of Sciences, and the Social Science Research Council.

Early efforts to achieve a working relationship with China were not fruit-ful, but in 1972 the Committee, renamed the Committee on Scholarly Com-munication with the People's Republic of China, became a major factor inexchanges. From 1972 through 1978 the Committee and its staff served ashosts to 37 Chinese scientific delegations to the United States. Since thespring of 1973 the Committee has sent 30 American scholarly delegations toChina, selecting the exchange topics and participants.This organized effort was supplemented by private groups and individ-

uals. Notably effective were Chinese-Americans, some of whom preparedtrip reports that were published. The various visits made clear to the Chi-nese that a good and friendly climate for interchange existed.

In July 1978 President Carter sent his science adviser, Frank Press, and adelegation of heads of science and technology-related government agenciesto China. Their mission was to investigate the possibility of cooperationgoing beyond the survey trips. Press had earlier served as chairman of theCommittee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic ofChina and he had been a member of an American visiting delegation. Thisbackground was helpful in discussions leading to opening the way for seri-ous scholarly cooperation. The Press mission probably had a significancethat went beyond scholarship. When two major powers make an agreement,many factors are involved. But in the normalization of relations, consid-erations of scientific and technological interchange surely were an importantfactor.With the resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States

and China, interchange will occur through other mechanisms such as com-merical relationships and exchanges between universities. To obtain infor-mation to better formulate a cooperative program, most of the members ofthe Board of Directors of AAAS visited China from 14 November to 3 De-cember 1978. The delegation was able to examine a broad cross section ofChinese life, education, and science and technology. In the course of thevisit, many hundreds of photographs were taken both on film and in themind. In this issue there are a few pictures and impressions of changingscenes in China in late 1978. What is presented is somewhat different, lesseuphoric than the views of earlier visitors. In turn, it is to be expected thatwhat will be reported a few years hence will differ from the present portray-al, for the vast energy of China is being channeled in new directions andchange for better or worse is inevitable.-PHILIP H. ABELSON

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se.WAAA8titi2Ait>g X>C,0v8). A 7AIiW.:Rt0;<dA 3MSAAAVSAAASNEWSr,%AC N -Af i3aNEV~SNF '/ /C A A $N$_t@8414,$t'90ll$8i* 4\i'tlM9;><)',XX /A4XgV

AAAS Board Visit to China-A Brief ReportThe Board of Directors made a 3-week

visit to the People's Republic of China(13 November to 3 December) as aAAAS international science initiative.Cities visited included Peking, Shanghai,Kweilin, and Canton. The visit was ar-ranged through an exchange of letterswhich culminated in an invitation fromthe Scientific and Technical Associationofthe People's Republic of China (PRC).All Board members participated exceptDrs. Gifford, Mosteller, and Yang. TheChina initiative was in accord with therecommendations of the Committee onFuture Directions concerning the impor-

tance of a wider role for AAAS in inter-national science. It was the fitst time theBoard of Directors, as a body, has par-ticiated in a new program initiative.The Board substantially fulfilled its ex-

pectations for the visit to China.1. The primary purpose of the trip

was to develop a workable basis for co-operative exchanges between AAAS andits counterpart association in the PRC.The Scientific and Technical Associationof the People's Republic of Cha(STAPRC) is a federation of some 64 sci-entific societies which is beginning againto hold annual and disciplinary meetings,

publish scientific journals, and work to-ward the "popularization" of science.The visit was successful in producing aframework for such exchanges andagreement was reached- on initial areasfor cooperation in 1979 and 1980. Theundertakings on AAAS's part reflect ob-jectives in the AAAS Constitution, thatis- to further the work of scientists, to fa-cilitate cooperation among them, and toincrease the public understanding of sci-ence.At a special audience with Vice Pre-

mier Fang Yi (chairman of the StateCommission for Science and Tech-nology), a high-level approval was givento the principle of cooperative relation-ships on a people-to-people basis. We in-vited the Chinese to make a return visit.to the United States, and they wilg send asubstantial delegation here in May- orJune 1979. We offered to share AAASpublications and symposium reports andto include the Chinese as observers orparticipants in our annual meetings. The

AAASBoard imebers and Chiese hostsin the Grt Hall ofthe People, Pekn. Lef to right row cMIk McCor7-mack, K ith g, Chou Pei-yuan (actinghead, STAPRC and president, University ofPeking), Emnilo Q. Daddario, Fang Yi (vice p eradcaan of the Stt Comfnission for Science and Technology), Edward E. David, Jr., Pei Li-sheag (vice chairtan, STAPRC), Ann Daid.Russell W. Peterso, I illian Peterson-second row: Williai Wight (AAAS), Philip H. Abson, William D. Cay, Eloise E. Clark, Nancy l)vid-Sybi Gohlen, WiiT. Golde,Ma WongCheg (responsible person, Inteciaonal Department, STAPRC); third row: ArleenMartin M. Cummings, Neva Abelson, Rende C. Fox, Mary Matrgret Carey, Su Hung (vice cbairman, Scientifi and Technical As iatPeking), Lu Ching-ting(responsible member, International Department, STAPRC); fouith row: Hsiong Cbjag-su (staff member, T-rai1partfentf STAPRC), Wong Wen-chung (teacher, Peking #2, Intmational foreign Language Department-principal interpreter for i:p)li:PEBRUARY 1979 533

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Chinese asked AAAS to take a centralrole in persuading U.S. experts from ac-ademia and industry to go to China forextended lecture visits and in generatinga cooperative project in the area of popu-larizing science and technology. Otherpossibilities to be pursued by correspon-dence include some joint activity in sci-ence education and a possible Sino-American symposium at the 1980 annualmeeting.

2. The Board sought meetings withkey figures in the PRC in areas of sci-ence, technology, and government toclarify China's intentions and prioritiesin modernizing science and technology.This was accomplished with in-depth

meetings with such leaders as Fang Yi,Professor Chou Pei-yuan (acting head ofSTAPRC and president of Peking Uni-versity), top officials of the Ministry ofEducation and the Academy of Sciences,and heads of universities and institutesconcerned with basic and applied sci-ence.

All contacts and meetings with offi-cials and scientists were extremely cor-dial; the Chinese were disarmingly frankin assessing the damage visited uponeducation and science between 1965 and1975. Equally clear was the govern-ment's and Party's solid commitment torecovery and modernization of science,technology, and education and for a

Warren Weaver 1894-1978Warren Weaver, former AAAS president and Board chairman, died 24 No-

vember 1978. At the time of his death, Weaver was consultant for scientificaffairs at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.A mathematician by training-Ph.D., University of Wisconsin-Weaver

spent most of his career with philanthropic foundations. He was director fornatural sciences (1932-55), vice president for natural and medical sciences(1955-59), and vice president (1959-64) of the Rockefeller Foundation.Weaver also served as director for natural science at the General Education

Board, 1932-37; chief, applied mathematics panel, 1943-46, and chairman,Naval Research Advisory Committee, 1946-47; member, National ScienceBoard, 1956-60; member, National Advisory Cancer Council, 1957-60; andvice president, Sloan-Kettering Institute, 1958-59. He was instrumental infounding the Scientists Institute for Public Information and served as its direc-tor from 1963-67.At its meeting in Houston, 3 January 1979, the Board adopted the following:"Warren Weaver will be remembered for many reasons. He early under-

stood how greatly the tools and techniques of physics and chemistry couldadvance knowledge of biological processes, and used his position in the Rock-efeller Foundation to identify, support, and encourage the young scientistswho years later earned Nobel Prizes and other honors for their contributions togenetics or molecular biology.As a skilled interpreter of science, he helped many audiences to understand

the sweep and nature of scientific work. His collaboration with Claude E.Shannon on The Mathematical Theory ofCommunication introduced scientistsfrom a broad range of interests to the power and usefulness of communicationtheory. His deep personal commitment to improving the public understandingof science was honored in 1965 by award of the first Arches of Science Medalfor outstanding contributions to the public understanding of the meaning ofscience to contemporary men and women, and in the same year by award ofUNESCO's Kalinga Prize for distinguished contributions to the popular under-standing of science.Government, other foundations, and many scientific institutions and so-

cieties called upon him to fill posts of major responsibility. AAAS was fortu-nate to have him as President in 1954 and Chairman of the Board in 1955; as a

member or chairman of numerous boards and committees; and as the primaryauthor of the Arden House statement, a 1951 declaration of principle that hassince served as value guide in setting the goals, the plans, and the proceduresof the Association.Be it resolved that the Board and Council of the American Association for

the Advancement of Science record their lasting appreciation for his wisecounsel and his versatile and farsighted leadership."

534

strong Western connection to help bringthem about. While a mere 3 weeks spentin a society as complex as China's is tooshort a time to produce strong con-clusions, the evidence available in-dicated a decisive turn in China's inter-nal and external policies for science,technology, and development.

3. The Board tried to get a clearunderstanding of institutional arrange-ments for policy-making in science andtechnology. The answers came in bits,for the most part. In important ways, thepolicy structure reflects the residual in-fluence of the former Soviet presencewith an interlocking apparatus in whichthe Party, the State Commission, theAcademy, the ministries, and the provin-cial organs are all involved.- Despitemany signs of liberalization, the Partyorgans still provide the direction over re-search institutes, and scientists are re-quired to be, in the words of Party Vice-Chairman Teng, "both red and expert."While the values of basic science are ac-knowledged at every level, expectationsfor benefits to defense, industry, and ag-riculture are very high. This may reflecta tilt in the early years toward emphasison applied science and technological in-novation.

4. We sought a broad and mixedview of the state of basic and applied re-search. It is very clear that the Chinesehave pragmatic reasons for reenteringthe larger world of science and rebuild-ing both their laboratory competenceand their science information resources.With occasional exceptions, the generalimpression was that both basic researchand applied research must overcome adecade of neglect and disruption. The"needs" cover the whole spectrum:modern instruments, new equipment,replacement of facilities, contact withoverseas scholarship and literature,higher standards of undergraduate andpostgraduate education, replenishmentof faculty, and foreign language capabili-ty. Where the Chinese appear to have anadvantage is in combining traditionalChinese science with Western approach-es to science, notably in such areas ashealth care and preventive strategies.With this, China has an impressive co-hort of zealous and resourceful youngerscientists who are now doing good workunder Spartan conditions. As they getopportunities to study abroad, the pros-pect is that China may be less than onegeneration away from putting on a verygood scientific show.

5. Because the education system iscritical to the four modernizations (in-dustry, agriculture, defense, and science

SCIENCE, VOL. 203

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and technology), and especially to prog-ress in science, the Board made specialefforts to look into this area. What wefound was a universal recognition by theChinese of the predicament confrontingthem in education. Universities had beenshut down, postgraduate study stopped,libraries vandalized, and professorsfarmed out to hard labor in factories andthe countryside. Foreign language teach-ing had been proscribed, and the flow offoreign literature and especially foreigncommunication had been effectively shutoff. Today, the universities are reopenedand students are being tested before ad-mission. The quality of appointees to keyuniversity administrative and academicpositions is impressive, and many ofthem are alumni and alumnae of Ameri-can universities. Emphasis is being givento importing foreign experts for extendedlecture tours and to arranging student ex-changes. Language training is beingspeeded up, with emphasis on English.An impressive expansion program is inthe works to multiply the number of uni-versities while at the same time decen-tralizing science education to the facto-ries and communes through what wewould call outreach programs. Technicaland vocational schools are on the draw-ing boards, and the plans envisage 2-yearcommunity colleges as well. In short,there is an explosive movement towardthe creation of the infrastructure for de-velopment, limited in practical terms byproblems of teacher quality and studentquality. To fill these gaps, the Chineseare looking to overseas training to sup-plement domestic crash programs. Edu-cation in China at this point is a very se-rious business.

6. The Board members went toChina expecting to be asked to give lec-tures. The Chinese had a great appetitefor these lectures, and they were given toaudiences varying in size from 50 to 500.The lectures traversed the gamut fromindustrial management and the U.S. sci-ence policy system to medical informa-tion networks, technology assessment,energy policy choices, scientific journalmanagement, social sciences, the biolog-ical sciences, sociology of medicine', androles of private hospitals in health caredelivery. What were expected to beshort lectures always took a full half-dayas the Chinese pressed questions.As evidenced by the responses gener-

ated by our lectures, throughout ChinaBoard members were struck by the keeninterest in questions of science. It is ob-vious the Chinese have a long way to goto recoup the time and talent lost be-tween 1965 and 1975, but the desire and9 FEBRUARY 1979

determination to reach parity in mattersof science and technology are also clear.

Prognosis is risky, considering themodem history of the revolutionarymovement in China, but on the evidenceof a brief and strenuous visit it appearsthat the changes under way are widelysupported by both policy and publicopinion, and that in the decade aheadChinese science will give a very good ac-count of itself.The cooperative arrangements agreed

to by STAPRC and AAAS represent onestep in many that the Chinese will take asnormalization proceeds and the People'sRepublic of China goes about rebuildingits scientific capabilities.

WILLIAM D. CAREYExecutive Officer

AAAS Introduces NewLife Insurance ProgramThis year AAAS is introducing a new

membership benefit-a program ofgroupterm life insurance that has been devel-oped especially for AAAS members andtheir families. The benefit is being of-fered in response to the expressed inter-est on the part of many AAAS members,who over the last several years have in-quired about the availability of life insur-ance at attractive low group rates.Some 2 years ago, the Board of Direc-

tors authorized an investigation into thepossibility of making such a programavailable to members. After-determining

at an early stage that the services of aprofessional independent insurance ad-ministrator would prove essential inhelping to provide this type of member-ship service, AAAS carefully examinedmore than a dozen administrators and in-terviewed some eight of them. Based ontheir experience, reputation, and clientreferences, AAAS selected AssociationCons'ultants, Inc., of Chicago, to helpdevelop and administer the program.They are operating under the general su-pervision of the AAAS Board, an insur-ance committee of the Board, and AAASstaff.

Also, as a part of this process, AAASconducted a survey of a cross section ofmembers, in which they were asked toindicate their professional interests,preferences about Science, comments onthe annual meeting, and possible mem-bership benefits that AAAS could offerin the future, including insurance pro-tection. The response provided valuableinformation that will help in setting fu-ture editorial and management policies.In addition, it helped to determine justwhat type of insurance program wouldbest suit members' interests and needs.

Using the information gained from thesurvey, AAAS developed specificationsfor the proposed insurance program andinvited several of the major insurancecarriers to submit proposals. After re-viewing proposals from several insur-ance carriers, AAAS selected the pro-gram underwritten by Northwestern Na-tional Life Insurance Company and theirsubsidiary, the North Atlantic Life In-surance Company of America. Estab-lished in 1885, Northwestern Nationalranks in the top 2 percent by size of themore than 1800 U.S. life insurance com-panies.The new Group Term Life Insurance

Plan for AAAS members is uncompli-cated and designed to accommodate theneeds of the majority of the membership.Benefits of the program include:

* During the Open Charter EnrollmentPeriod, all members under- age 70 can ap-ply for up to $100,000 coverage.

* Also, during -the Open Charter En-rollment Period, all eligible members un-der age 50 are guaranteed $10,000 or$20,000 coverage.

* Members can elect to insure theirspouses for up to the same amount thatthey select for themselves.

* All dependent children between 14days and 23 years of age may be insuredfor $5000 each.

* At age 70 all insured members quali-fy for a paid-up benefit.AAAS has established a special group

535

Fourth AnnualR&D Policy Colloquium

The fourth annual AAAS Re-search and Development Policy Col-loquium will be held 19-20 June1979 at the Mayflower Hotel inWashington, D.C. In addition totopics related to federal R&D, theFY 1980 budget, and R&D in indus-try and the economy, the programwill include international aspects ofR&D policy.Research and Development:

AAAS Report IV will be available inbook form in time for the June 1979Colloquium.For further information, write to

R&D Budget Project, Office of Pub-lic Sector Programs, at the AAASaddress.

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9 February 1979, Volume 203, Number 4380 SCIENCE

China in TransitionThis issue includes accounts of a 3-week visit to the People's Republic of China by the AAAS Board of Directors. The aims of

the visit and some cooperative arrangements that were made between AAAS and the Chinese Scientific and Technical Associa-tion are outlined on page 533. Thefollowing three articles are personal impressions of the editor of Science, the executive officerofAAAS, and the then president of the Board of Directors.

Education, Science, andTechnology in China

Philip H. Abelson

President Carter's decision to normal-ize relations with the People's Republicof China has fostered expanded scientificinterchange between the two countries.In consequence, the visit to China by adelegation from the AAAS from 14 No-vember to 3 December 1978 was particu-larly timely.

In one sense, the delegates were fol-lowing a well-trodden path. NumerousU.S. scientific groups have visited Chinaduring the past 6 years, some private,but many under the sponsorship of theCommittee on Scholarly Communicationwith the People's Republic of China.However, in general they have concen-trated on specific areas of science suchas solid-state physics. The AAAS delega-tion was unusual in its broad representa-tion of disciplines and consequently in itsbroad outlook. It was comprised ofpeople who had knowledge of universityand medical education, libraries, medi-cine, the natural sciences, economics,sociology, technology, management, andpolitics.Members were fascinated with what

they learned about all levels of edu-cation. They tried to estimate the statusof scientific research in the variousfields. They were alert to discoverwhether and how research would be ap-plied to societal needs. Questions aboutSCIENCE, VOL. 203, 9 FEBRUARY 1979

policy and management were frequent.After a visit such as ours, participants

are tempted to become instant experts. Itis too easy to generalize from limiteddata. Beyond that, our hosts set much ofthe agenda. But there are factors thatlend confidence in the validity of our ob-servations. One is that we could checkwith groups who had been there beforeus (1). A second factor is that we askedmany questions of many people. Some ofour questions and comments were tough,even impertinent. Responses were suchthat we felt we were dealing with honestand forthcoming people.One of the major questions about

China that over the years has puzzled meis, "Why hasn't China developed fasterand more extensively?" The country hassubstantial resources of coal, oil, hydro-power, minerals, and agricultural land.Most of its area lies within the temperatezone. It has tremendous human re-sources. In the United States, Chinesescientists have performed admirably. InNew York City youths of Chinese ex-traction do exceptionally well in the city-wide mathematics competition.The problems of modernizing a large,

populous country are enormous andcomplex, and so I return from Chinawith my question not fully answered.However, I have no doubt that ideology

has had a dominant role in influencingthe development of education, science,and technology.

After Chairman Mao and his col-leagues triumphed in 1948, a decade ofremarkable progress followed. ChairmanMao's leadership and teachings werecrucial in unifying China and in theachievement of great national goals.Education was fostered; literacy was in-creased from 20 to more than 95 percent.Higher education was expanded. Manyresearch institutes were created andtheir personnel greatly increased. Infec-tious disease, including venereal disease,was practically eliminated, as were pros-titution and traffic in drugs. Productionof many chemicals and pharmaceuticalswas initiated. China became essentiallyself-sufficient with respect to antibiotics.In the last two decades there have beenadvances, but progress has been uneven,largely because of repeated twists andturns in ideology. One of the ideologicaltwists with broad relevance to future sci-entific exchanges was the Cultural Revo-lution (1966 to 1976), which had a greatimpact on education and research.

Impact on Education

At virtually every university or insti-tute that the AAAS group visited, thebriefings included a denunciation of theGang of Four. This was a small ingroupheaded by Mao's wife. For many yearsthey controlled the major propaganda or-gans and the Ministry of Education. TheGang of Four were blamed for the severedisruptions of education and researchthat occurred during the Cultural Revo-lution. Worst hit was education. The uni-versities were closed in 1966, and classeswere resumed only on a limited basis in1970. At that time a poorly qualifiedgroup of students were admitted who

0036-8075/79/0209-0505$02.00/0 Copyright K 1979 AAAS 505

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Professor teaching class at the Institute of Nationalities, Academy of Sciences, Peking.

had been selected on the basis of ideo-logical considerations. In contrast, ear-

lier students were chosen on the basis ofnationwide examinations.But the damage to education went

even deeper than that. Prior to 1966, pri-mary and middle school covered 12years. This was cut to 10 years and be-fore students could attend universities,they were required to spend 2 years inthe countryside or in factories. Atten-dance at universities was diminished to 3years, with much of the time devoted toideological and other nonacademic mat-ters. From 1966 to 1978 graduate schooltraining was practically nonexistent. Thestudy and use of foreign languages were

discouraged.Medical education and research were

also hit. Medical schools were closedfrom 1966 to 1970. When they were re-

opened, the 4- to 7-year course was cutto 3 years. Students were selected fromthe army, communes, and factories on

the basis of ideology. In general, theirprevious training did not go beyond thesecondary school level. During the Cul-tural Revolution most medical researchwas discontinued, professionals were

transferred to the provinces, and theChinese Academy of Medicine was

forced to move to a remote village.Following the death of Chairman Mao

and the arrest of the Gang of Four in late1976, drastic shifts in policy occurred.The new ideological line emphasized thefour modernizations-agriculture, indus-try, defense, and science and tech-nology. Correspondingly, the official at-titude toward education and researchchanged and new policies were quickly

506

implemented. University curricula havebeen restored. Graduate training hasbeen resumed. Students young and oldwill be sent abroad. Foreign schools andlecturers will be invited to China.Today, training in the middle schools

is heavily oriented toward the naturalsciences and mathematics. The best stu-dents want to become physicists. Train-ing in foreign languages begins in prima-ry schools and continues through middleschool.

Student bodies at universities have notyet been restored to their 1966 enroll-ment of 900,000, but the intention is thatby 1985 the number will rise to 3 million.Most of them are expected to becomescientists and engineers. Were these pol-icies to be implemented, China wouldthen be producing more technicallytrained graduates than the United States.

Impact on Research

Although research activities in the uni-versities and institutes were not dis-rupted so severely as education, the im-pact of the Cultural Revolution was ex-

tensive. In China most research is car-

ried out at institutes affiliated with theChinese Academy of Sciences. A lesseramount is conducted at universities.During the Cultural Revolution, funda-mental research was largely interrupted,although some applied work continued.The institutes fared relatively better, butthey also had difficulties. We were toldthat in 1966 there were 100 research in-stitutes, but that in 1976 only 40 re-

mained. We were also told that during

that 10-year interval few new researchinstruments were procured, and muchexisting equipment was damaged.Some of the institutes came through

the Cultural Revolution much better thanothers. For example, the Institute of Sili-cate Research in Shanghai has achievedsignificant results that could only havebeen reached by sustained effort over aperiod of many years. My impression,which has been reinforced by those ofother groups, is that members of insti-tutes and universities around Shanghaifared better in general than those in Pe-king. A possible explanation is that theGang of Four came from Shanghai.At all the universities and research in-

stitutes we were impressed with thepeople we met. They were informedabout their subject fields, aware of rele-vant material that had appeared in the lit-erature, and enthusiastic and energetic intheir approach to science. We met andtalked with more older staff membersthan with younger ones. The proportionof high-level women scientists in Chinaappears to be greater than in the UnitedStates.For the present and for the next sever-

al years, scientific leadership in Chinawill rest with foreign-trained Chinese.Those educated in the United States areparticularly prominent. Most of themcame here between 1932 and 1949. Theirmemories of the United States are manyand warm. In 1950 to 1960 a number ofChinese were trained in the SovietUnion, but only a small fraction werescientists. Their role is minimal.

In the ideological turmoils of the pasttwo decades U.S.-trained scientists en-countered difficulties, but perhaps not asgreat difficulties as are generally be-lieved. True, they were special targetsfor abuse and "reeducation" becausethey were privileged, lived in urban set-tings, had usually come from wealthyfamilies, and had foreign connections.True, most of them spent a year or morein the countryside or in factories. How-ever, few were killed, their compar-atively large salaries were maintained,and they were ultimately restored totheir positions. To a large degree it isthey who will provide a warm welcomingatmosphere for American scientists whoaccept invitations to lecture in China. Asurvey of reports from various scientificdelegations indicates experiences similarto those of the AAAS group. We weremost courteously received. Lectures giv-en by members of our group were wellattended by appreciative audiences whoasked many good questions.For the most part, the equipment with

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quality and quantity. This is not surpris-ing in view of the cost of such equipmentand the restrictions against buying it thatprevailed during the Cultural Revolu-tion. Typical items are about 15 years be-hind the times, and even these are rela-tively few in number.

In leading U.S. laboratories one oftensees equipment that has been developedlocally and is more advanced than theusual state of the art. This is particularlytrue of some of our principal industrialresearch laboratories. In contrast, I sawno example in China of laboratory equip-ment that surpassed Western state of theart, and few pieces that even matched it.

In view of the handicaps under whichChinese scientists have worked, their ac-complishments are fairly impressive, andone is led to believe that under more fa-vorable conditions they would be re-markably creative. However, much ofthe work we saw was a duplication ormodest variant of Western accomplish-ments. Some of the work was originaland up to Western standards. I saw noinstance in which the Chinese were nota-bly ahead.This view of Chinese research is

broadly shared by the many visitinggroups who have been drawn from everymajor branch of science. There is consid-erable variation in estimates about howfar in years the Chinese are behind us. Inthis matter it appears that there are widedifferences from field to field and withinfields. The Chinese put emphasis onsome areas, particularly those with quickapplications, while not touching others.They are furthest behind and will find ithardest to catch up in areas of the phys-ical sciences and computer technologywhere access to excellent equipment andinstrumentation is essential. In some as-pects of the biological sciences they arenot far behind and indeed may havesome lessons to teach us.An example is their procedures for

dealing with agricultural insect pests. Al-though they employ chemicals if neces-sary, they prefer to use biological con-trols. In any event, they refrain fromoverkill and treat only areas that arefound to be substantially infested. Theyemploy parasitic wasps, mites, and vi-ruses and are developing additional bio-logical agents.Another example of work that merits

continuing attention is Chinese studies ofthe incidence and etiology of cancer.Their cancer control program monitorsthe prevalence of the disease throughoutthe entire country. They find that inChina 80 percent of cancers occur in thealimentary tract. The commonest sitesare the stomach and the esophagus. The9 FEBRUARY 1979

incidence of some tumors may be 100times as great in one geographical area asin another. Such variations merit closestudies, which the Chinese are making.They are sharing findings and specimenswith Western medical scientists.Most visiting experts from the United

States agree that the Institute of Bio-chemistry in Shanghai is good. It is thesite where the first chemical synthesis ofinsulin was carried out. Currently it isthe scene of much activity in molecularbiology, including research with re-combinant DNA techniques. The Insti-tute has carried out the tedious chore ofisolating restriction enzymes. One recentvisitor, an expert in DNA studies, wasimpressed with what he saw and thepeople he talked to. He believes that ifthe Institute enjoyed the kind of supportin equipment and supplies that prevailsin the United States, it would soon beamong the world leaders. At present it isno more than a year or two behind. The

AAAS group that visited the Institutewas also favorably impressed.Today, much of the frontier research

in the United States is dependent on su-perb new equipment. Usually this instru-mentation has as an essential componenta mini- or microcomputer. Often the dataobtained from the equipment are furtherprocessed in a larger computer. The useof large computers in research is com-monplace, and many undergraduates aswell as most graduate students in thephysical sciences are familiar with com-puters and how they can be used.

In China we rarely saw instrumenta-tion that included as a component a dedi-cated computer. The Chinese have nolarge computer whose capabilities ap-proach those of large U.S. computers.We were told of only one that could pro-cess 2 million instructions per second,and most of the computers in China haveabout a tenth of this capability. There isvery little training in the use of comput-

Diagram of a tokamak at the Institute of Physics, Peking. Beside the Chinese physicist are Ed-ward E. David, Jr. (left), and Philip H. Abelson (right). [Photos from E. E. David, Jr.]

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ers and only a few students program them.In high-energy physics the Chinese do

not have, nor could they have for a dec-ade or more, equipment that mightmatch that of advanced countries. De-spite a lack of up-to-date equipment andcomputers the Chinese are succeeding inapplying science to national needs. How-ever, their problems in catching up withthe West are enormous. The gap is great,and the target keeps moving ahead as ad-vances in high technology continue.

In their research in the physical sci-ences the Chinese are active and knowl-edgeable in most of the fields currentlyworked in by Western scientists. Em-phasis is on areas that are known to havepractical applications. For example, ingeophysics there are substantial effortsin earthquake prediction. In chemistry,much effort is devoted to petrochemi-cals, to natural products, and to poly-mers. In physics, lasers and a wide varie-ty of solid-state devices are receivingmuch attention.A useful insight into the level of Chi-

nese applied science and technology canbe obtained at their industrial exhibits.The AAAS delegation visited such anexhibit in Shanghai. There we sawabout 1000 items whose preparation re-quired a good level of competence inchemistry, biochemistry, metallurgy,physics, chemical engineering, andmechanical engineering. On display weremany plastics, including synthetic rub-ber, Lucite, polystyrene, polyimide, andTeflon. Pharmaceuticals included a largenumber of antibiotics and drugs for hy-pertension, coronary disease, and ner-vous disorders. China produces amplesteroid contraceptive drugs for domesticuse as well as some for export.Also on display were high-temperature

alloys, titanium tubes, rare earth metalsand salts, and semiconductor materials,including silicon crystals of 99.9999+percent purity.

Essentially every consumer item thatone could think of was there, includinghousehold goods, fabrics, musical in-struments, radios, television sets, auto-mobiles, and trucks. Production of auto-mobiles is about 130,000 per year. Theindustrial exhibit also features somelarge machines, such as an automatedmilling machine with 48 cutting tools, avertical lathe capable of machining anobject 3 meters in diameter, and a ma-chine for converting steel wire 15 milli-meters in diameter into threaded boltswith hexagonal inserted sockets. Themachinery appeared to be well engi-neered. However, many of the machinesexhibited are not mass-produced, butone of a kind.

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R & D Policy Competition in International Trade

Necessarily, in implementing the fourmodernizations, China will emphasizeapplied research. Average per capita an-nual income is about $340. In com-parison to filling urgent present-dayneeds, a long-term unknown payoff can-not command priority. During our visitthe delegation had an audience with VicePremier Fang Yi. He is the person withinthe ruling group who sets policy in scien-tific and technological matters for China.During the conversations he said flatly,"If there is no application of research,then the research is worthless." Thisstatement sounds familiar to Americans,who have repeatedly heard similar com-ments from some of their politicians.However, in China the comment is likelyto have more weight than it would in theUnited States.Our hosts told us repeatedly that the

leadership in China is now determined tocatch up with the advanced countries inscience and technology. They hope toreach our current level by 1985 and tosurpass us by 2000. These are inspiringgoals but achieving them is problematic.As for getting to the first goal, one couldscarcely devise a more unlikelyspringboard than the Cultural Revolutionwith its impact on the training of experts.Beyond that, the rulers of China appar-ently have little experience in the ef-fective integration of advanced researchand development into major industrialcomplexes.

In our contacts with directors of insti-tutes and officials of the Chinese Acad-emy of Sciences we repeatedly inquiredabout mechanisms for transfer of find-ings from research to applications. Thestandard response was to give an ex-ample of the use of improved seeds in thecommunes. Mechanisms for transferringresults from the physical sciences to in-dustry seem weak. At various places wewere told that someone from a factorywould occasionally visit an institute.The current situation in China with re-

spect to utilizing research is reminiscentof the attitudes of some U.S. companiesduring the 1950's. At that time it was thefashion to erect a beautiful laboratory offsomewhere on a hill, staff it with the bestscientists money could buy, and thenwait expectantly for miracles. That erahas long gone. The U.S. companies thatmaintain large research and developmentlaboratories have made determined ef-forts to ensure that there is adequate in-teraction between research, patent coun-sel, development, engineering, produc-tion, quality control, marketing, and cor-porate management.

In the recent past the economy ofChina has been little influenced by out-side developments. But the new goalsthat have been outlined for the countrywill cause it to interact more stronglywith the rest of the world. Enormoussums of money must be spent if China isto be modernized, amounting to as muchas many hundreds of billions of dollars.

In part that money will be supplied byforeign investors, but they will providefunds only as long as they believe theywill be paid back and make a profit. Oil isanother possible source of money, butlarge reserves have not yet been foundand substantial proceeds are distant atbest. A more practical source of funds topay off debts and for further investmentis expanded sale of finished goods. Butcompeting in world trade is a toughgame. The goods must be attractivelypriced and of excellent quality. BeforeWorld War II the Japanese attempted tocompete with price alone. At that timetheir shoddy merchandise was laughedat. Following World War II the Japaneseinstituted strict quality control which,coupled with cost-cutting, has madethem wealthy, respected, and fearedcompetitors.Thus far Chinese industry has largely

been oriented to produce for domesticcustomers. In a controlled economycosts are not always important or visible.For a customer in a socialist country tocomplain about the quality of a state-pro-duced item borders on dissidence. Thedisciplining influence of the marketplaceis absent.

I was first alerted to some of the prob-lems that the Chinese will face by ob-serving the quality of their bricks. Therewere many piles of them to be seen. I be-came sufficiently interested to look atthousands of bricks. They were com-paratively fragile, and no two were alike.Members of our group visited six

places where various kinds of manufac-turing were being conducted. Thesewere small installations with simple, oldmachines. In general, the workplaceswere dusty and poorly lighted. Despitethe low wages paid to the workers, it wasdifficult to believe that low-cost high-quality products could be made in thoselocations.

Observations at a computer factorypointed to one of the problems the Chi-nese will encounter. In 1971 they assem-bled a computer based on integrated cir-cuits on silicon chips. This admirablefeat was accomplished with locally pro-duced components. The small factorywhere the computer was assembled had

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previously made door handles. In the in-terval since 1971 production has rangedup to ten computers of the same designper year. But in the same period greatadvances have been made in the UnitedStates and a U.S. computer costing ahundredth as much as the Chinese ver-sion can accomplish the same calcu-lations at similar speed. The computer isnot the best model the Chinese have pro-duced, and the factory cited is not theirmost efficient one. However, the con-trast in cost illustrates a problem thatChina will face when it engages in inter-national competition.

If the Chinese are to compete in manyof the items of international trade, theymust bring to the undertaking more than

cheap labor, patriotism, and self-dis-cipline. Improving their capabilities inscience and technology will help, butalone they will not be enough. Once trulycommitted to modernization, the Chi-nese may find themselves facing no endof changes, pressures, and social prob-lems.But the Chinese are an intelligent, en-

ergetic, and moral people. They havecome far in the last 30 years. They willcontinue the development process. It iseven possible that in spite of shifts in pol-icies and direction that at times are de-structive and self-defeating, they mayyet arrive at a better, more livable socialstructure than others have thus farachieved.

References

1. The following trip reports of the Committee onScholarly Communication with the People's Re-public of China have been published by the Na-tional Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.:A. FitzGerald and C. P. Slichter, Eds., SolidState Physics in China (1976); American InsectControl Delegation, Insect Control in thePeople's Republic of China (1977); AmericanPlant Studies Delegation, Plant Studies in thePeople's Republic of China (1975); Oral Con-traceptives and Steroid Chemistry in thePeople's Republic ofChina (1977); and Astrono-my in China (1979). Other articles include"Earthquake research in China," Eos 56, 838(1975); (education and science) E. Signer and A.W. Galston, Science 175, 15 (1972); (earth sci-ence) E. C. T. Chao, ibid. 179, 961 (1973); (com-puter technology) T. E. Cheatham, Jr., et al.,ibid. 182, 134 (1973); (scholarly exchanges) H.Brown, ibid. 183, 52 (1974); (agriculture) G. F.Sprague, ibid. 188, 549 (1975). For an extensivelisting of publications up to 1976, see Congres-sional Research Service, Annotated Bibliogra-phy on Science and Technology in China (Gov-ernment Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,1976).

The Chinese Scene

William D. Carey

Coming from Tokyo, the contrast on

arrival at Peking could not be sharper.Peking is the fabled Xanadu, pleasuredome of Kubla Khan. But today very

little pleasure is visible. The city is prole-tarian in all its features. The populationfills the sidewalks, streets, and avenues:

on foot, on bicycles, stacked in busesand open trucks. Rush hour sees streamsof bicycles flowing, crowds queuing atbus stops, patiently and without shovingor pushing. There is a universal atmo-sphere of organized existence. There are

no beggars, few loungers. Dress issimple, colorless, and drab, but clean.Facial expressions range from deadpanto the glowing joy of teenagers. This isby no means a sullen people. They eyeAmericans with curiosity and often withsmiles and a stray word or phrase of En-glish.The AAAS group saw no signs of teen-

age hoodlumism. The bicycle brigadesswept down the avenues in good order,the crowds on the streets were well-be-haved, and the mornings dawned withthe sight of hordes of young people run-

ning through the streets singing and ex-

ercising on the way to school. No policesirens ever sounded, day or night, anduniformed police were hard to find. Onthe other hand, who was a policeman?9 FEBRUARY 1979

When we were taken to see the Forbid-den City or the Summer Palace, we no-

ticed that as the proletariat crowdedaround us and listened to our guides, oth-er proletarian-looking men would sud-denly step forward and send them pack-ing. And no back talk or sullen looks.The only sign of behavioral indepen-dence was jaywalking into the trafficstream or driving a bicycle or truckacross the bows of a madly honking offi-cial car.

Work and Leisure

Although the populace appears to bein a constant state of motion, coming andgoing to nameless destinations on name-

less errands in a permanent rhythm of or-

ganized futility, one senses beneath it allan explosive energy and power, a humanmachine in the process of being shaped,directed, controlled, and harnessed.China is a nation of toilers. On any

journey, short or long, one sees laborersat work, on farms or on the roads. Theirwork is backbreaking and poweredlargely by human muscle. A new road islaid by pick and shovel, with an ancientcoal-burning steamroller waiting tosmooth out and pack the stones. In the

fields, water buffalo pull wooden plowssteered by the peasants. Women doeverything that men do, with no relieffrom the hardest kind of labor. A com-mon sight from the window of the luxuri-ous official limousine (the "Red Flag") islong lines of handcarts loaded withbricks, pulled by women between theshafts and pushed by others at the rear,bent almost horizontal. At the foreignvisitors' hotels, guests' bags are hauledup to the rooms by teen-age girls who donot seem to mind at all. Hundreds of mil-lions of people are doing these things 6days a week, taking a short break only tospoon a bowl of rice, vegetables, and bitsof fish or meat. Nobody looks hungry orinadequately clothed.On Sunday, Heroes' Square is dense

with silent and orderly regiments ofpeople waiting by the hour to enter themassive mausoleum of Chairman Maoand glimpse the body as it lies in statewith an honor guard of soldiers armedwith bayonets. Once back in the streets,they pack the sidewalks and the shops,crowd around the ice-cream vendors,and stand 30 or 40 deep, reading the wallposters. They find pleasure in books, ra-dio, museums, the arts, and the movies.Although they follow the Marxist lineand emphasize pragmatism and realism,they turn to fantasy for entertainment.We were treated to movies and an oper-etta, all of which featured romantic fa-bles out of the long ago, with lovers sep-arated and then rejoined by the inter-ventions of good fairies', bad fairies,magic, and dragons. The singing washaunting and the dancing exquisite, butthe plots would not meet a Western stan-dard of realism. But the cinemas arecrowded and the people cannot getenough of them despite the poor quality

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Family group in Peking. [Photo by William D.Carey]

of the films, which were made more than20 years ago. China is about to organizea film production industry from scratch,and it will be interesting to see what itcomes up with. We saw a current docu-mentary film of the reborn Music Con-servatory in which a dozen young artistsaged 8 to 15 demonstrated extraordinarymusical proficiency and concentration,and the technical quality of the film wasequal to anything New York could pro-

duce.Another strong impression of China

today came out of our visit to a "key"middle school in Shanghai and a kinder-garten in Kweilin. The middle schoolprovides 3 years at the junior high levelsad 2 years of high school, and theschool we were shown was obviouslyone of their best. It had 1600 studentsand 120 teachers. The courses coveredliterature, mathematics, chemistry,physics, foreign languages, biology, ge-

ography, music, Chinese history, andphysical education. The aim of theschool, we were told, is to raise the all-around development of the students on

the moral, intellectual, and physical lev-els. Political education deals with therevolutionary idea and the approach ofCommunism. The teachers must keep uptheir studies of Marx, Lenin, and Mao'sthought, and both teachers and studentsare sent out to the countryside to learnlabor from the peasants.

In the first classroom, an English lan-guage class, as we entered there was to-tal silence. Sixty teenagers were sittingwith their eyes closed, listening to a

rhythmic chant from a tape recorder.Then the pitch changed, and all 60 pupilsbegan to massage the upper bridge oftheir noses with thumb and index finger.Again the pitch changed, and the pupils(still with eyes closed and no one cheat-ing to glimpse the Americans lined up

along the walls) began massaging the eye

510

muscles. A third change of pitch, and 60heads dropped in unison onto foldedarms. The tape stopped, and all eyes fo-cused on the teacher. We learned thatwe had walked in on a "'relaxation peri-od" and that all the massaging was to re-

lieve eye tension and prevent near-

sightedness. This is a notion of Chinesemedicine, and is related to acupuncture.The eerie aspect was the total concentra-tion of the students, even in relaxation,and their self-control in avoiding dis-tractions. We stayed for English and al-gebra sessions, and the performance was

superb. Despite a dreadful street racketof honking trucks and traffic, to say noth-ing of 20 staring Americans, neitherteachers nor students missed a beat. Lat-er, we met with the faculty and two stu-dents, a boy and a girl. When we askedthe girl what her ambition was (she was a

science major), the answer came back,""to fulfill the four modernizations" (in-dustry, agriculture, defense, and scienceand technology). Asked what they knewabout America, for a moment they were

stumped. "Very little," said the girl."Nothing," said the boy. But after somefast thinking, the girl said, "Americansare friends of China, and they are very

clever."The kindergarten at Kweilin was an

eye-opener. There were several hundredchildren aged 3 to 6. They are taken atthe age of 3, to relieve working parents,and for 6 days each week they live, eat,learn, play, and sleep at the school. Onthe seventh day they go home to theirparents. The children were beautiful,clean, and exquisitely trained. Babiesperformed acrobatics for us, danced, andrecited "'poems of Chairman Mao." Theteachers were dedicated and very goodwith the children, who seemed to enjoywhat they were doing. We went throughthe dormitories: 36 little beds in each,immaculate and without a wrinkle,clothes stacked in neat piles on shelves,and a bed in the corner for the teacher.The entire kindergarten operationseemed to follow a script, with the young-

sters and the routines thoroughly pro-

grammed. Not a child cried, not one

seemed distracted by the foreign vis-itors, nothing was out of place. The envi-ronment was one of total control, totalorder, and precision. We had to marvelat it; but more than one of us felt that itwas as chilling as it was efficient.

Scholars and Scientists

The happiest people we found in Chinawere the educated class who had studiedin the United States in theo 1940's and

1950's, before the Cultural Revolution.Their delight in being liberated was plainto see, and the alumni and alumnae fromBerkeley, Harvard, MIT, Michigan, Co-lumbia, Wisconsin, Yale, and Smithwere radiant at the prospects for reunionwith American colleagues. Most of thembore the wounds of the last 10 years, al-though they were discreet about their ex-periences. They have been recalled to fillkey positions in the research institutesand universities, and without exceptiontheir minds are on the future instead ofthe past. Their resilience says a gooddeal about the Chinese capacity to ab-sorb punishment and survive.Our principal exposure was to these

scholars, scientists, and interpreters aswell as the leading officials. They wereuniformly gracious, considerate almostto a fault, friendly, and likable. One hada strong sense (or illusion) of making fastfriends. They recited the errors of theGang of Four to the point of tedium, butnot once was there criticism of the mis-takes or excesses of Americans. Theywere discreet. They spoke repeatedly oftheir backwardness, but they made plaintheir intention not only of catching upbut of "'overtaking" us-a more politeterm than the Soviet threat to bury us.As for the Russians, the bitterness of theChinese toward them is never concealed.They blame the Russians almost as muchas the Gang of Four.

Visiting their research institutes was arevealing experience. The buildings typi-cally were run-down and without ameni-ties. It was standard procedure to begreeted on the front steps by the institutehead and his staff, bundled in hats andcoats; go inside and climb several flightsto a meeting room where tea and ciga-rettes were laid out; and conduct the ex-change still wearing coats while ourhands gradually froze. Heat (this waslate November) was not programmed forsome weeks to come. The same situationexisted as we were shown laboratories,where the scientists briefed us in poorlylit rooms, wearing Mao caps and heavyclothing. In a word, the setting was Spar-tan. But the mood was something verydifferent: upbeat, serious, confident,proud of what could be done under ad-versity.They are frank in admitting backward-

ness, and direct in asking for any help orknowledge that we can share. They hadno embarrassment in letting us see thepoverty and austerity of their workingenvironments. They could not havecared less. One had to like them, wishthem luck, and want to help them. Whatwe saw was the price China has paid fordecades of the self-reliance theme. It has

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(Left) Kindergarten in Kweilin. (Right) Group present at a lecture at the Chinese Scientific and Technical Association. Peking, by William D.Carey (center). [Photos from William D. Carey]

put them in a bad way, and it is no won-

der that now the line includes a higherproportion of foreign reliance than ofself-reliance.The generally ruinous state of scien-

tific research and technology in Chinawas plain to see. Propaganda aside, therecan be no doubt that science was sav-

aged from the mid-1960's to the mid-1970'sand is reemerging from a dark age. Allthe blame for this is heaped upon theGang of Four. When questioned as tohow this could be possible, the answers

are that because the Cultural Revolutionwas cloaked in twisted interpretations ofChairman Mao's principles, even the in-tellectuals were confused to the point of"'not knowing what was right fromwrong." But this answer was not univer-sal, as we found in south China from an

aging but dynamic scientist who declaredthat she fought back and continuedteaching and research all thi )ugh the pe-

riod, even making her students learnEnglish and follow the English languagescientific literature. Yet she was the ex-

ception. The others were bitter, but ap-

parently had seen no way except to con-

form and wait it out. When we askedwhere Chou En-lai was during all this,the reply was that he recognized the er-

rors but had to go very slowly in correct-ing them. Nobody pointed a finger atChairman Mao himself. Indeed, at everybriefing, the Chinese took care to say

that China is now following the line laiddown by Chairman Mao. Supposedly,they were attributing the rise of the Cul-tural Revolution to Mao's own prophecythat the socialist road would be beset by"contradictions." So there it is, a puzzlefor the Western-trained mind. But we re-

member the stories of book burning,bombing, and arson at universities andthe killing of faculty members of the Pe-king Conservatory of Music. Perhaps themost likely explanation for the over-

9 FEBRUARY 1979

throw of the Gang of Four was the onewe heard near tlr- end of the trip, thatwith the suppres on of farmers' privateplots and the prGilibition against raisinghens and chickens, the standards of liv-ing and income fell so far that the lid onthe discontent finally blew off.The goals of the four modernizations

will be difficult to fulfull in the absence ofa vast infusion of technical assistancefrom the outside and the creation, start-ing from almost zero, of exceptional ca-pabilities from the inside. The risks forscience are those that are typical for adeveloping country: massive preferencefor fast technological and industrral leapsand pressure for quick results from ap-plied science. This means that highereducation paired with scientific researchwill be promoted, but that modernizationof laboratories and research institutescould come more slowly. If this view ismore or less correct, it puts a double em-phasis on the importance to Chinese sci-ence of student exchange with advancedcountries, importation of Western ex-perts for extended lecture tours, and get-ting foreign scientific literature to re-stock the libraries. Along with this, theChitiese must expand their foreign lan-guage instruction; it is noticeable that inthe university libraries English languagebooks are covered with dust and somehave not been checked out for years.

But there is another obvious problemfor the Chinese in forcing the pace ofmodernization. They do not yet seem torealize that as they approach a level ofscale in industrialization and press fortechnological innovation and exportmarkets, they will require skills in man-agement. Even a socialist economyneeds first-rate managers as it progressestoward development. Few Chinese lead-ers with whom we talked had any appre-ciation of this until we narrowed the linesof discussion to the problem of quality

control. Then they came alive and saidthat it is one of their worst problems andthat in some plants, such as textile facto-ries, failures in quality control are penal-ized by taking the loss out of the pay ofthe managers. But there is not yetenough recognition that training inmiddle and upper management is a prior-ity on which the four modernizations willdepend. No central institute appears tobe in existence for this purpose, and no-body seemed to know whether Chinesewould be sent abroad to Western centersof management training and education.This was a point that the AAAS groupraised repeatedly during the visit.

It is also clear that the gradual im-provement of productivity through farmmechanization, improved fertilizers, andinsect control programs will free millionsfrom the communes and create socialproblems. Ths Chinese answer to this isthat the workers will be absorbed by theparallel growth of light and heavy indus-try, transportation, and education. Inshort, an expanding economy will solvestructural employment problems and,through a policy of industrial decentral-ization, keep the masses from crowdinginto the cities.Because science education is crucial

to China's modernization goals, theBoard asked to meet with the Ministry ofEducation in Peking, even though theChinese did not have it on our itinerary.This turned out to be a revealing meetingwith the Vice Minister and several of hisdeputies. It began, as usual, with aspeech about the four modernizations,but soon the point was made that scienceand technology are the keys, and educa-tion provides the foundation for all of it.If the four modernizations are to happen,China must train as many skilled peopleas possible and very quickly. China canbuy technology abroad, but skills mustbe developed at home.

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The Vice Minister went on to say thatthe problem is not simply to increase thenumber of students. It is to quickly im-prove the quality of education. The plansare to (i) get the 400 existing colleges anduniversities to absorb more students; (ii)open new colleges and universities, to-gether with 2-year vocational or profes-sional colleges; and (iii) develop televi-sion and correspondence courses alongwith "July 21st schools" for workers atthe factories, to teach trades.The goal for higher education is to in-

crease the college and university studentpopulation from under 900,000 to 3 mil-lion by 1985, even though this is far toolittle for a country with China's popu-lation. But the question of how to in-crease the number of teachers and im-prove their skills is a hard one. As ofnow, they are taking their best graduatestudents and preparing them for collegeteaching. On top of this, they have toraise the skills of the existing teachers,and they do it by running all-day coursestaught by competent professors. Shortcourses are being given in locationswhere capable faculty are concentrated.Veteran teachers of good quality havethe job of rapidly training new ones. Andunder the program to send "students"overseas for training, nearly half of thosesent will be teachers in the next 2- or 3-year period. At the same time, Chinawants to bring in teachers from abroad-specialists and scholars who will givelectures on either a short-term or long-

term basis. While all this is going on,China will have to modernize laborato-ries and bring in "machine literacy."

Questioned about the condition of li-braries, the Vice Minister describedthem as badly damaged. Almost nothingwas published during the Cultural Revo-lution, and little was allowed in fromabroad. A conference was held in 1978 toevaluate textbooks to be introduced intoChina. Considering that there are about20 "important" universities in the world(for instance, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, Harvard, Oxford, Cam-bridge, Tokyo, and Moscow), the Chi-nese want the textbooks they use and arebeginning to bring them in. The ViceMinister added the hope that AAASwould help to provide textbooks andpublications in science and technology,along with tapes, slides, and other aids toaccompany the textbooks. When askedwhether the Ministry has a translationcapability, the answer was a brief "yes."The next question was on the foreign lan-guage training program, and this time along answer was given. It turns out thatthis is a major bottleneck, again becauseof the Gang of Four. China realizes thatlanguage training is crucial, and besidesEnglish, which is being taught in manyschools, they are launching programs totrain people in French, Japanese, Ger-man, Spanish, and other languages. Stu-dents are asked to start foreign languagesin the primary schools. Besides foreignlanguage departments in the universities,

there are a number of language institutesin Peking, Shanghai, Canton, and else-where. Foreign languages are also taughton television and radio.AAAS and the Chinese Scientific and

Technical Association shook hands on aflexible agreement to develop good mu-tual working relationships. A Chinesedelegation will make a return visit for 3weeks to AAAS in the spring. AAAS issending Science magazine to a dozen orso centers in China. We are going toshare other AAAS publications and sym-posium books with them, and make themwelcome at our meetings. There has al-ready been a significant exchange ofbooks and documents between theirAcademy of Medicine and our NationalLibrary of Medicine, as a direct result ofour trip. The Chinese have asked us tocontact a long list of U.S. experts whomthey wish to invite to give lectures forextended periods in China, and theywant to develop a specific exchange withAAAS in the field of popularization ofscience and technology. Although it isnot spelled out in the agreement, theprospects are also good forjoint work re-lated to strengthening science education,and for a substantial collaboration aimedat scaling up Chinese scholarship in thesocial sciences. Since our main purposewas to lay the cornerstone for increasingcommunication between the respectivescientific communities through nongov-ernmental channels, that objective wasaccomplished.

In Peking, the weather is chilly; thereis ice on the ponds in the mornings andwinter is coming. But there is the air ofspring among scientists, teachers, and in-tellectuals. There is celebration at theirrelease from the suppression of doctrineand dogma. Science and technology, andspecialized advanced education, are nowlooked on as essential resources for na-tional development, rather than as evilsto be condemned and suppressed. Con-

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tacts between Chinese scientists and en-gineers and those outside are now en-couraged. Universities are planning 100percent or more expansion; admissionson merit rather than political acceptabil-ity have been restored. Graduate educa-tion will be resumed on a large scale.New research equipment has begun toarrive from the West, and research insti-tutions are being similarly treated. Stu-dents will be sent abroad in large num-

bers and exchanges are contemplated. Itis enough to gladden the heart of anypartisan of science.There is no doubt that these move-

ments are genuine, as is the opening ofChina to importation of foreign tech-nology and to joint enterprise with West-ern firms. Indeed, the promise is great,and the enthusiasms of those who see therapid emergence of China as a worldpower based on its 1 billion people areunderstandable. Actually, I detected anelement of euphoria both in Peking andamong returning travelers. A sober as-sessment raises a number of doubts.

I think back to the time in 1972 whenPresident Nixon and Dr. Kissinger re-turned triumphant from their visit toChina. At the subsequent Cabinet brief-ing, President Nixon expressed his admi-ration for the Chinese leadership-ChouEn-lai and Chairman Mao himself-andfor their consistency and logic in theirconduct of foreign policy. He also ex-pressed awe at the intrinsic power of a

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China: Objectives, Contradictions,and Social Currents

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nation consisting of one-quarter of theworld's population. But what was theirview of us? The President was clear onthat point. They admired our accom-plishments, but they questioned our re-solve. They wondered if we could estab-lish a foreign policy and have the will tosustain it to the point of effect. Perhapsthe Chinese leadership is still waiting forits answer. But now we can raise thesame question about their situation: howstable is it, how permanent is the turn-around, how far is it likely to go? Arethey moving too fast, away from theirrevolutionary past and toward more con-ventional ideas for development of Chi-nese society? What social movementswill be generated by the change fromChairman Mao's continuing revolutionto stability and the building of institu-tions and elites? What will be the reac-tion to the removal of long-standing so-cietal symbols, the "little red book" andChairman Mao himself as the omnip-otent leader?Of course, there are no firm answers to

such questions. But the questions them-selves suggest the uncertainty in the pic-ture. Kenneth Boulding has said that"events are not as significant as youthink." Indeed, there is a large measureof randomness and happenstance in af-fairs. Events are not often the result ofan explicit plan, carefully thought outand precisely executed. Events in Chinaarise probably out of a melange of influ-ences in an unplanned way. Of one thingwe can be sure: there are still elements inChina that would prefer the traditionalMaoist course to a Western-inspiredmodernization of their society. Despitesuch obvious sources of uncertainty,there do seem to be some fundamentalsin the situation that make it more pre-dictable than the questions above wouldindicate.

AAAS Visit

Perceiving those fundamentals and ex-amining them in some detail were amongthe purposes of the recent visit by theAAAS Board to China. I doubt that wecan add much that is new to the picturealready available in sober quarters here.But the breadth of the delegation, cov-ering engineering and the physical, life,medical, and social sciences as well aspolitics, was extraordinary. The con-geniality of the group allowed a scholarlysynthesis of comprehensive ideas. Manyof these we shared and discussed withour Chinese hosts. We talked intimatelywith Chou Pei-yuan, president of PekingUniversity and of the Chinese Scientific9 FEBRUARY 1979

Chinese computer scientists with E. E. David, Jr. [Photo from E. E. David, Jr.]

and Technical Association. We com-pared notes with Vice Premier Fang Yi,now also acting head of their Academyof Sciences.Our Chinese hosts were very open in

these discussions, and we were also, assoon as we became accustomed to theidea of a freewheeling exchange ofviews in a regimented society. I suspectthat this relaxed interaction was possiblebecause we were a nongovernmental or-ganization without any official sanctionor standing. The only times of tensionoccurred when someone on the Chineseside recognized that some of our dele-gates were government officials (such asCongressman Mike McCormack) andtook the opportunity to lecture us on thenecessity for normalization of relations.(The visit occurred before normalizationwas achieved.) The trip was largely pri-vately financed and sponsored, althoughof course we kept the State Departmentinformed, and we met with AmbassadorLeonard Woodcock, head of our liaisonoffice in Peking. Thus, we were free tospeak our minds in Peking, and now inWashington and elsewhere.

Despite these advantages, I hasten todeny any special insights or expertise inthe Chinese situation, which is immense-ly complex as Chinese scholars wellknow. Indeed, it is difficult to organizeone's thoughts after returning from theferment that is China today. One impor-tant feature of the scene there is con-tradiction. For example, the Chinese arewary of the Soviets. They are activelyopposed to the Soviet government andits way. They are concerned about theaggressive Soviet foreign policy. TheChinese have little sympathy for the So-viet Union's adventurism or its accom-plishments in science. Yet the Chineseorganization of research is in the Sovietpattern. Research institutes are a part of

the Academia Sinica. University re-search is under the Ministry of Educa-tion, while industrial research and devel-opment is carried out in industry itself.This fragmentation makes it difficult tointegrate research and development ef-forts effectively, just as it is in the Sovietsystem.Another contradiction is that Chinese

science and technology are furthest ad-vanced in areas of their least need. Onephysician put it well-he said, "We tendto emphasize the sensational; re-attach-ing severed arms and fingers when whatwe need most is an effective publichealth program." One of China's statedpriorities is high-energy physics, hardlya technology of the people, and we sawgood work in the synthesis of graded re-fraction optical fibers for informationtransmission where there is a clearly in-adequate voice telephone service. Suchparadoxes are not unique to China, ofcourse. But the contradictory elementsseem a significant part of their overallsystem.

Objectives for National Development

Still another instance involving con-tradiction stems from their stated objec-tives for national development and forscience and technology as part of theirvision of the future. These objectiveswere adopted and promulgated as na-tional policy in well-publicized meetingsheld earlier this year in Peking. There,four modernizations were established asgoals: agriculture, national defense, in-dustrial production, and science andtechnology-the last being essential tothe first three. A later conference de-fined eight priority science and tech-nology subjects ranging from agriculturethrough energy and materials to genetic

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Poster in Peking. The writing says "Ourfriends are all over the world." [Photo byWilliam Wight]

engineering, computers, space science,

lasers, and high-energy physics.These choices show a certain sophisti-

cation, ranging as they do from the es-

sential, agriculture, through develop-ment necessities to prestige fields aimedat rehabilitating their science and joiningthe international club. But these choicesare coupled to very ambitious timescales. The Chinese aspire to attainingthe level of late-1970's Western tech-nology by 1985, and being "thoroughlymodernized" by the end of the century.Yet there is little obvious planning, or-

ganization, or management aimed atachieving those goals. For example, inrebuilding their research and education,they are reinforcing the existing struc-ture of institutes, educational activities,and industrial research separated by bu-reaucratic barriers. This structure is ofSoviet origin, and now would seem to bea unique opportunity to change it to a

more unitary system to encourage trans-fer of knowledge and technique from re-

search to production. They may be miss-ing a chance to make their innovationsystem much more effective by organiz-ing it to remove the barriers so obviousin Soviet-style systems. Little thoughthas apparently been given to this possi-bility.

Clearly, modern planning and organi-zation are difficult in a society that foralmost 30 years has depended forachievement on collective resolve andthe thoroughly puritanical little redbook, and that has only a small cohort oftechnocrats as responsible managers. I

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was particularly taken with one questionthat was repeatedly asked: "Dr. David,how will we know when we haveachieved a technologically advanced so-ciety? What are the indicators?" Thequestion itself is poignant and does cred-it to the Chinese intellect, but it indicatesthe lack of well-defined goals.

Social science in China is highly un-derdeveloped. As members of theirAcademy of Social Sciences pointed out,they do not have the fields of sociologyand anthropology yet. Social sciencethere tends to encompass history, litera-ture, and political science. The move to-ward a technologically advanced societywill raise new social questions for China.For example, rapid development of tech-nologically based industry will create anelite of scientists, engineers, and man-agers. Yet that is contrary to the Maoistideology on which their society has beenbased since 1949. The new road is a dras-tic change and will have far-reaching so-cial effects. What will be the internal re-action to encouragement of entrepre-neurial tendencies after they have beensuppressed for so long?* Traditionallythe Chinese have been shrewd business-men, but have 30 years of Maoismchanged that? Overall, I believe therehas been little thinking about the detailedeffects of indigenous innovation andmodernization on their society.We found knowledgeable and sophisti-

cated people in all of the research institu-tions we visited, many of them trained inthe United States in the 1930's and1940's and in Europe later. Yet there waslittle appreciation of what it takes to es-tablish a computer industry, for ex-ample. We found no pressure for cleanrooms in manufacturing, user education,or evangelism to turn computer skepticsto enthusiasts among the users, and ofcourse marketing is a foreign concept. Atthe computer factory we visited, the de-velopment group showed that theseideas were not beyond their thinking, butare beyond the action stage at present.The) do have plans to set up an equip-ment maintenance organization now thatthey have been making machines since1973. The plant and its workers formerlymade doorknobs and handles, so theirpresent output represents quite a con-version.Another contradiction is apparent in

the grand marble mausoleum in Tiena-men Square that holds the body of Chair-

*Actually, there are signs that entrepreneurship sur-vives in China. Along the back streets of Shanghaiwe saw small shops producing goods such as metal-lic washers, woven scarfs, specialty foods, and reedfurniture. At least some of the output is sold on thespot. It is hard to believe that a part of this com-merce is not outside the svstem.

man Mao. We visited the mausoleumand saw him lying in state. That struc-ture and its contents are a monumentthat cannot be erased. Recall that the So-viets removed Stalin from the RedSquare mausoleum when they repu-diated him, but they had Lenin to fallback on. There is no such parallel inChina (although one wonders aboutChou En-lai). Yet there is clearly an on-going attempt to repudiate Mao andMaoism as a rigid doctrine-and moreimportantly, as a guiding operational phi-losophy. That process is behind the post-ers, demonstrations, and statements inPeking, and does indeed seem to be aprerequisite to technologically based de-velopment. After all, one cannot learn tobuild computers from reading the littlered book.We found a strong attachment in Pe-

king to Marxist economics. In many in-stitutions and in the main square onesees posters of Marx, Engels, Lenin,Stalin, Mao, and Hua. Yet there are evi-dences of pragmatism in practice. Therecent legitimization of joint ventureswith Western enterprises is a particularlystriking example.

I could go on with this list of con-tradictions. Another one is the readyavailability of news from the foreignpress in Peking. Printed in English, it isnot in newspaper form but is given as aduplicated handout to foreigners everyday. I found no drive to acquire thesehandouts among our Chinese intellectualfriends, whereas there is a demand forany foreign news publication in Moscow.There seems to be less suppression offactual news in Peking, yet there is cer-tainly not full freedom of opinion, de-spite the rather effective Chinese tech-nique of using posters to express ideas.

Contradiction in practice is perhaps animportant feature of Chinese style-ayin-yang effect much more compatiblewith the Chinese mind than with ourown. Having duly noted this element ofstrangeness, let me go on to other ele-ments. You will note some level of con-tradiction in all these matters as well.

I was fascinated by the central role ofrhetoric in China. Rhetoric is a politicaltool in many countries, but the uniformi-ty of theme in China is striking. Weheard denunciations of the Gang of Fourfor past abuses from almost everyone.Their removal from power is said to bethe most significant political event sincethe 1949 revolution. The Gang of Fourand Lin Piao are clearly the current do-mestic villains, and they are blamed forthe excesses of the Cultural Revolutionand the suppression of modern develop-ment. It has been said that radical move-

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ments thrive when some devil has beenidentified for condemnation. The Gangof Four certainly fills that role admirablyand perhaps they will soon be joined byChairman Mao, although I doubt his re-pudiation will go that far, given the Chi-nese respect for the past and their needfor traditions. Who or what will be thenext target? It will be well for adventur-ous enterprises and nations approachingChina to be wary.

Economic and Political Prospects

There has been much enthusiasticcomment here and in Europe aboutChina's future role on the world scene asan economic power. It has been said thatwhat China chooses to do, she can do.Actually, the picture is much hazier.China's industry is not modern, and pro-ductivity has not become a major eco-nomic objective. Where technology en-ters the picture, it is an empirical tech-nology. For example, there is labor-in-tensive production of circuit breakersand steam turbines. Those productsseem adequate for immediate needs. Inone plant producing trucks the output isaround 400 per day, again labor-in-tensive. Mass production with auto-mated equipment is yet to appear, al-though it is clearly an objective inChina's drive for industrial modern-ization. The implications of an industrialmodernization policy go beyond themere increase in gross Chinese product.Socialist societies traditionally are inneed of labor; everyone works since thesystem demands it. China has theworld's largest work force to accommo-date. What will happen when industrialdevelopment reduces job availability?What will be the social impact of jobelimination in a society where it seemsagainst both doctrine and tradition? I be-lieve that little thought has been given tosuch puzzles-after all, there are no so-ciologists to raise the issue. The paradoxof a highly productive energy- and capi-tal-intensive industry in a traditionallylabor-intensive society will raise prob-lems.

If China is to follow the path towardmodernization, financing is a key ques-tion. We were told that there are amplereserves of hard currency for immediateprojects. China has accumulated sub-stantial currency reserves from its ex-ports to Japan, and of course there hasbeen no corresponding drain on its ac-counts. But to sustain the long march to-ward modernization, new sources ofwealth will be required. One possiblesource frequently cited is oil. Currently9 FEBRUARY 1979

identified Chinese oil reserves amount toperhaps 20 billion barrels-somewhatless than U.S. reserves. More important,the potential is largely unknown. Con-trary to many stories, there is no in-dication that China will become oil-rich.There are interesting prospects for newfields offshore, but they are yet to be ex-plored. Nevertheless, financing is notlikely to be a limitation in the near futurefor Chinese development. Availablecredit seems to be more than adequatefor the near term.On the international scene, there are

very strong long-term forces pushingChina and the United States together.Perhaps the strongest lies in the inter-national political-military realm. It is nosecret that the United States and otherWestern nations do not feel able to parrySoviet thrusts in all parts of the world.The Chinese have said that the SovietUnion is the most imperialistic factor onthe world scene. Regardless of the truthof that statement, China and the UnitedStates have a profound mutual interest inseeing that the Soviets do not dominatethe Western Pacific and Southeast Asia.The Soviet moves toward Vietnam seemsinister. Thus, as one looks some yearsdown the road, there are likely to be rea-sons for the United States and China(along with Japan) to consider an al-liance, formal or informal. Will we seethe sale of U.S. military hardware toChina? Will we see the U. S. fleet inShanghai harbor? It is not impossible,and so the United States clearly has astake in the success of the Chinese ef-forts toward modernization.

Western Contributions

So far I have noted some of the con-tradictory elements in the Chinese situa-tion, the paucity of management plan-ning to reach ambitious goals, the socio-logical uncertainties raised by the trendto reject Maoism as an operational doc-trine and to move toward a society that ismore energy- and capital-intensive thanlabor-intensive, and finally the long-termforces pushing China and the UnitedStates together. If we try to assist China,what sorts of contributions should weconsider? Certainly the Chinese will re-quire modern technology and financing.But they will also need aid in manage-ment, planning, elements of marketing,and science and education. No matterwhat we do, there are likely to be stepsforward, backward, and sideways asChina proceeds along its chosen path.We may worry that China will have

problems such as we see in Iran today.

In Iran, foreign influences brought in bythe government have led to strife in-volving both traditional religious andmodern liberal factions. Still anotherworry is the language problem. I am toldthat Chinese is a difficult language forprecise communication such as that re-quired in science and engineering. Themany dialects in China present a diffi-culty too. It remains to be seen just howserious the difficulties of communicationand documentation will be.As we prepare to aid China, we must

ask what the character of Chinese tech-nology and products is likely to be 25years hence, around the year 2000. Muchof the technology we saw still shows theinfluence of China's earlier Soviet con-nection; automobiles, petroleum refin-eries, radios, and electrical equipmentare examples. Looking ahead, however,perhaps our best clues come from Chi-nese art. The style of a nation's tech-nology often seems akin to its artisticstyle; perhaps the connection is throughengineering and manufacturing design.Chinese art of certain earlier eras waselegant and simple. However, the mod-ern art we saw is not as fresh or graceful.Judging by that, we would not expectChinese technology to have the sim-plicity or functionality of Japanese tech-nology, the originality of U.S. products,or the ponderous character of Soviet de-sign. Perhaps the Chinese will createtheir own style in the manner of theFrench, but to do so they will have toexhibit more originality than is evidenttoday. I doubt, therefore, that indige-nous Chinese products will be strongcompetitors on the international marketsoon. At least for a substantial time, theChinese will compete in the fashion ofSouth Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore,which use imported technology and prin-cipally foreign designs.So I return from China with mixed

feelings. One cannot help but admire andrespond positively to the smiling scien-tists and engineers one meets there. Oneis startled by the ambitious plans formodernization but dubious about theirexecution. One sees the common inter-ests of China and the United States, butis concerned that a Chinese course canbe held long enough to achieve commonobjectives. Beyond all this, however,there is no doubt that we have witnessedover the past 6 years a major change onthe world scene-the opening of Chinato the West. The dimensions of thechange are not yet fully apparent. Asthey emerge, we will find that there arenew fundamentals. It is significant thatthe Chinese place science and tech-nology in the forefront of these.

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