Upload
elijah-harris
View
224
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Alexander Sokolov
Foresight Centre
Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Higher School of Economics
Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th-17th October 2008
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
CONTENTS
General background
Methodology and implementation scheme
Some results
Further steps
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
General background
Foresight for industriesMacroeconomic forecast
S&T Foresight Scenarios
Delphi
Concept of Socio-economic Development: 2020
Strategy of Innovation Development: 2015
Strategies for particular industries
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Major stages of Delphi
Preliminary desk researchSocio-economic objectivesSelection of expertsIdentification of thematic areasDelphi topics Survey methodologiesExpert panelsData analysisDiscussion and dissemination of results
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Preliminary desk research
Benchmarking Russia vis-à-vis leading countries
Bibliometric analysis – the most cited experts, fast growing R&D areas (research fronts)
- QUANTUM DOT BIOCONJUGATES; QUANTUM DOTS; INVIVO IMAGING; LIVE CELLS; DIAGNOSTICS- HIGHLY ORIENTED ZNO NANOROD/NANOTUBE ARRAYS; ULTRATHIN ZNO NANOTUBES; THIN ZNO FILM
Patents – Russia’s positions by technology area
Statistics – resources and R&D capacities (personnel, research units, R&D funding, output indicators)
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Socio-economic objectives
Human potential and increasing quality of labour resources
Economic development
Institutional development
Environment and safety issues
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Experts
Expert panels
Experts-Integrators 20
300
Over2000
Research centres
Business
Universities
Government
Delphi survey
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Thematic Areas(5-8 technology areas and 80-100 topics each)
1. Information and Telecommunication Systems 2. Industry of Nanosystems and Materials3. Living Systems4. Medicine and Health5. Rational Use of Natural Resources6. Transportation, Aviation and Space Systems 7. Power Engineering and Energy Saving8. Manufacturing Systems9. Safety10. Technologies for Society
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Questionnaire and issues covered by the survey
• Importance for Russia• Time of realisation• Level of Russian R&D• Leading country• Needed policy measures• Expected results• R&D vs commercial use
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Regions covered by the survey
Number of respondents
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
[Header]Polymers with increased mechanical strength and chemical resistancePolymers with increased mechanical strength and chemical resistance
Crystals and nanostructured metals with increased construction and functional propertiesfor transport applications
Crystals and nanostructured metals with increased construction and functional propertiesfor transport applications
Methods of creation of components for nanoelectronics Methods of creation of components for nanoelectronics
Nanostructured materials and coatings for implantsNanostructured materials and coatings for implants
Nanomaterials for urgent stopping of hemorrhages in emergemciesNanomaterials for urgent stopping of hemorrhages in emergemcies
Materials for alternative sources of energy (solar batteries; portable fuel cells; hydrogen accumulators; electrochemical and thermoelectrical cells; supercondensators et al)
Materials for alternative sources of energy (solar batteries; portable fuel cells; hydrogen accumulators; electrochemical and thermoelectrical cells; supercondensators et al)
Integration into global value chainsIntegration into global value chains
Increasing domestic competitiveness
Increasing domestic competitiveness
Resolving social problemsResolving social problems
Strengthening position on global markets
Strengthening position on global markets
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
40%
41%
31%
21%
34%
32%
Time of R&D realisation and commercial application
- Leading country
40% - Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders
Expected results
R&D realisation
Commercial application
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Nanotechnology and materials: expected results
1. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials
6. Biocompatible materials
5. Membranes and catalysts3. Nano- and microsystems equipment
4. Composites and ceramics
2. Polymers and crystals
Social developmentDomestic markets
Global value added chainsPositions on world markets
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Time of realisation: Living Systems
Biosystems, bioanalytical devices
Biomedicine and veterinary
Cell technologies
Genome and postgenome technologies for medicine
Biosynthesis, biocatalysis, metabolic engineering
Bioengineering
Bioinformation technologies
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Level of R&D vs Importance: Living SystemsIm
port
ance
for
Rus
sia
Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders
Realisation time
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi
Further steps
Finalisation and integration of results
Wide dissemination and discussion
Building S&T priorities (Revision of National Critical Technologies: 2009)
Identification of the areas for the National Innovation Projects
Fine-tuning the National S&T Programme
Identification of S&T priority areas for particular industries