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Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research
Combining Relevance and Rigour
The SCID Project Members(but particularly in this part of the work:
Luis Fernandez Lafuerza, Louise Dyson, Bruce Edmonds and Alan McKane)
Rigour and Relevance
With complex systems one is faced with using:– A simple model that can be completely analysed– A complicated model including the known processes
• Choosing between rigour or relevance
Often when formal (e.g. physicists) and social scientists collaborate there is some dissatisfaction:
– Formal scientists dislike models they don’t understand– Social scientists dislike models with abstract micro-level
SCID has tested out an approach which uses a (complicated) descriptive model which reflects evidence which is then, itself, modelled with simpler models that can be adequately analysed
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 2
Our Basic Approach…
…is to stage abstraction with an intermediate, complex model, that is then, itself, modelled (a ‘KIDS’ approach)• The Data Integration Model (DIM) includes all that is
deemed relevant by social scientists• The simpler models of the DIM are developed by
formal scientists but validated against the DIM
Representation
Simplification
DIM
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 3
Reduced Simulation ModelsReduced Simulation Models
Overall Strategy
Data-Integration Simulation Model
Micro-Evidence Macro-Data
Reduced Simulation Models
Analytic Model
Even Simpler Simulation Model
Reported in this
presentation
Currently being
developed
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 4
Outline of Model Reduction
Red and green processes were somewhat simplified, also parties and (initially) social network
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 5
Comparison of Reduced and DIM Models
Low and high turnout regimes
Broad agreement between models, but different levels and different dynamics in transition region
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 6
With Different Kinds of Network
Blue = Clumped Network, Green = With “clumped” network, Red = no network (bistability in transition)
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 7
Synthetic Network
Kinds of network
A synthetic network that is composed of small groups with some random inter-group connections resulted in better fit of dynamics
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 8
Network in DIM
Fixed vs. Dynamic Networks
Reduced models with fixed ‘clumped’ network (blue) and with a dynamic network where links between households change (red)
Dynamism increases turnout due to diversity of links over time allowing wider influence
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 9
Individual vs. Household Immigration
With immigrants of either a lower or higher political interest than natives, individual immigration resulted in higher level of turnout than household immigration, due to asymmetry of influence process
Low Interest Immigrants High Interest Immigrants
IndividualImmigration
FamilyImmigration
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 10
Final Comparison
Reduced model + dynamic ‘clumped’ network + household immigration had good fit to DIM turnout dynamics but amenable to complete checking, much simpler and easier to experiment with
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 11
What was Learnt?
The comparisons suggested that:• distinctive ‘high’ and ‘low’ turnout regimes exist,
depending on rate of discussions• when in extreme turnout regimes, the system is
stable, whereas in the transition regime turnout can 'flip' between low and high
• the lack of bistability in the transition is due to the ‘locality’ and sparseness of the network
• the dynamism of the network resulted in higher turnout levels
• household immigration reduced turnout compared to individual immigration
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 12
Conclusions
• Relevance and rigour combined via a ‘chain’ of highly related models (not in a single model)
• Intermediate abstraction step of a DIM• Enabled social and formal scientists to work
effectively together, each to their own strengths – crucial communication via a (complicated) model
• Each model acts as a check on the other• Policy relevant hypotheses found• Further iterations of model simplification in
progress towards completely analytic models
Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research, SCID Final Meeting, Crewe, July 2015, slide 13