School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT 1 Peter Boden QMSS2 Immigration and Population Dynamics Summer School Projection methods for ethnicity and immigration

1

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

Peter Boden

QMSS2 Immigration and Population Dynamics Summer SchoolProjection methods for ethnicity and immigration status

2 – 9 July 2009

International MigrationUsing administrative datasets for migration analysis and estimation

2

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTThis presentation…

1. European & UK context

2. Data sources

3. Estimation Methods – official statistics

4. New Migrant Databank

5. Estimation Methods – an alternative

6. The impact upon population estimates and projections

7. Adding an ethnic dimension

8. Summary

3


European Context

4

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTHarmonisation

• EU Regulation 862/2007 has provided a statutory basis for greater harmonisation of international migration statistics in Europe.

• Harmonisation remains a long way from being realised (Poulain et al., 2006) and the matrix of inter-country flows is subject to significant issues of coverage and inconsistency between reporting countries (Kupiszewska and Nowok, 2005).

• THESIM (Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration)

• MIMOSA (Migration Modelling for Statistical Analysis)

5


UK Research Context

6

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTUK – Lindsey Oil refinery

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7872932.stm

7

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTUK – data quality

8

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTMigration Statistics Improvement Programme

• UK Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

– New methods

– Enhanced data collection

– New data

– Long-term and short-term migration

– Reporting methods

9

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTMigrant impact

• Substantial number of studies have supplemented existing statistics (NINO, WRS, LFS) with primary data collection, specifically to examine the ‘impact’ of new migrants upon:

– Economy

– The workplace

– Integration and cohesion

– Local service provision

• Yorkshire & Humber – 120 studies identified 1999-2008• Lewis, H. et al (2009) Refugees, asylum seekers and migrants in Yorkshire and Humber, 1999-2008.

http://www.yorkshirefutures.com/siteassets/documents/YorkshireFutures/5/E/5E092F65-DFFC-4407-9291-2A02620D183A/Refugees_asylum%20seekers%20and%20migrants%20report.pdf

• Some attempts at producing improved migration estimates but generally constrained by sampling difficulties

10


Data Sources

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAlternative Sources

Reporting period CoverageLowest level of geography

Immigr-ation

Emigr-ation

Migrant Population Stocks Flows Age Sex Ethnicity Data sourced from

Censuses

UK Census Decennial UK OA All ONS

Pupil Census BiannualEngland &

WalesLSOA Children attending State Schools DCSF

Surveys

International Passenger Survey (IPS) Quarterly UK GOR All migrants ONS

Labour Force Survey Quarterly UK GOR All (but with survey exclusions) ESDS

Composite

Total International Migration (TIM) AnnualEngland &

WalesLADUA Long-term migrants ONS

Administrative sources

Immigration Control Annual UK National Non-EEA migrants HO

Work Permits Annual UK LADUA Non-EEA migrants HO

Points Based System Annual UK tbc Non-EEA migrants HO

Seasonal Agricultural Workers (SAW) Annual UK Postal District Seasonal Workers from Bulgaria

& Romania HO

National Insurance Number (NINo) Registrations

Quarterly UK LADUA Migrant workers DWP

Works & Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) n/a UK Postcode UK Labour Force DWP/HMRC

Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) Quarterly UK LADUA A8 workers excluding self-

employed HO

GP Registrations Annual UK LADUA All ONS/NHS

Higher Education Statistics Annual UK LADUA Students HESA

Electoral Register Annual UK LADUA Voting age population Local Authorities (no

central source)

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTConcepts & definitions

• Short-term vs long-term migrants

• Moves vs migrants

• Census, survey, registers

• Data captured (workers, students, dependents…)

• Time-periods

13


Estimation Methods – official statistics

14


National StatisticsEstimates of international migration

International Passenger SurveyPrimary source

Home OfficeAsylum seekers and dependants

Irish CSOMigration between UK and Irish Republic

AdjustmentsVisitor switchers & Migrant switchers

+

+

+

National StatisticsEstimates of international migration

International Passenger SurveyPrimary source

Home OfficeAsylum seekers and dependants

Irish CSOMigration between UK and Irish Republic

AdjustmentsVisitor switchers & Migrant switchers

+

+

+

National Statistics - UK

15

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTEngland & Wales – immigration

National StatisticsSub-national immigration estimates

International Passenger SurveyEngland & Wales

IPS/Labour Force SurveyGOR / Wales level10 zones

IPS (smoothed) & LFS (London)Intermediate Geography (NMGi)63 zones

Census 2001Local Authority District / Unitary Authority376 zones

National StatisticsSub-national immigration estimates

International Passenger SurveyEngland & Wales

IPS/Labour Force SurveyGOR / Wales level10 zones

IPS (smoothed) & LFS (London)Intermediate Geography (NMGi)63 zones

Census 2001Local Authority District / Unitary Authority376 zones

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTEstimation process

National LocalIntermediateRegional

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New Migrant Databank

New Migrant

databankNew Migrant

databank

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTObjectives of the NMD

• ‘Single view’ of alternative statistics

• Understand conceptual and measurement differences

• Framework for analysis of trends and patterns in migration

• Analysis of short-term and long-term migration measurement

• Derivation of ethnic-group migration estimates

New Migrant

databankNew Migrant

databank

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New Migrant

databankNew Migrant

databankNational Insurance Number Registrations NINo

GP registrations Flag 4

ONS components of change MYE

ONS components of change SNPP

Census Census

Higher Education Statistics Authority HESA

Workers Registration Scheme WRS

Labour Force Survey LFS

Datasets

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Demonstration

New Migrant

databankNew Migrant

databank

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTEngland – new migrant trends

All data are Crown copyright. Sources: 100% data extract from the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS): ONS Mid-year estimates; GP registration statistics provided by ONS

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

NINO - All NINO - non-Accession

GP Regs TIM - MYE Immig

Census

England

22


100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

London

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

oun

t

North West

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

West Midlands

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

Yorks & Humb

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

South West

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

South East

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

East

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

oun

t

North East

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

oun

t

East Midlands

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

Wales


200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt

NINO - All NINO - non-Accession

GP Regs TIM - MYE Immig

Census

England

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTWest Midlands and Yorkshire & Humber

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

oun

t

NINO - All NINO - non-AccessionGP Regs TIM - MYE ImmigCensus

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007M

igra

tion

Co

un

t


West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber


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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTExamples


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007M

igra

tion

Co

un

t


Leeds (YH) Bolton (NW)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mig

ratio

n C

ou

nt


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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTGOR immigration rates: TIM 2006

All GOR excluding London

10.7

9.89.5

8.4 8.4

6.3 6.2

5.7

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

East SouthEast

Yorks &Humb

EastMidlands

SouthWest

NorthWest

WestMidlands

NorthEast

Imm

igra

tion

Rat

e 20

06 (

per

000

popu

latio

n)

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTGP Registrations vs TIM estimates

-5%

3%

-12%

16%

1%

-34%

1%

-9%

-13%

16%

-45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%

England

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

-ve = TIM<GP regs +ve = TIM>GP regs

Three year comparison

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Estimation Methods

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAlternative Models

• Based on allocation of ‘national’ TIM flows using proportional distribution evident in administrative datasets

• Do not attempt to use actual counts from administrative datasets

• Attempt to calculate short-term flows as ‘residual’ of long-term estimation process using administrative datasets.

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAlternative Models

National

Long-term migrants

Model A TIM GP regs GP regs

GOR distribution LADUA distribution

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National

Long-term migrants

Model A TIM GP regs GP regs

Model B TIM GP regs NINo HESA GP regs

Model C TIM GP regs NINo (all) HESA GP regs NINo (all)

Model D TIM GP regs NINo (non-Accession)

HESA GP regs NINo (non-Accession)

Short-term migrants

Model E (flows) NINo HESA GP regs NINo

Model F (stock)

GOR distribution LADUA distribution

Alternative Models

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTImmigration estimation – Model B

Definite job, 27%

Looking for work, 13%

Accompany/join, 17%

Formal study, 26%

Other, 12%

Not stated, 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IPS – Reason profile, 2004-06

Definite job, 27%

Looking for work, 13%

Accompany/join, 17%

Formal study, 26%

Other, 12%

Not stated, 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Model B

HESA

NINo

GP regs

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTModel Estimation - GOR

1,027

3,644

-10,292

-591

11,057

-13,584

20,334

-3,513

-8,083

-25,000 -15,000 -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000

North East

North West

Yorkshire & Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

-ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM

7%

8%

-21%

-2%

33%

-23%

12%

-4%

-19%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

North East

North West

Yorkshire & Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West


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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTModel estimation – Yorkshire & Humber

-284

-205

-204

-200

-514

-4,889

-706

-2,487

-329

-529

-134

-624

-508

-149

55

111

93

121

86

513

491

-5,500 -4,500 -3,500 -2,500 -1,500 -500 500 1,500

Richmondshire

Craven

Ryedale

Hambleton

Calderdale

Leeds

Harrogate

Sheffield

East Riding of Yorkshire

York

Scarborough

Kirklees

Bradford

Kingston upon Hull, City of

Barnsley

Doncaster

Rotherham

North East Lincolnshire

Selby

Wakefield

North Lincolnshire


-58%

-50%

-48%

-47%

-37%

-36%

-35%

-29%

-27%

-21%

-21%

-21%

-8%

-5%

8%

9%

10%

25%

38%

48%

105%

-80% -55% -30% -5% 20% 45% 70% 95% 120%

Richmondshire

Craven

Ryedale

Hambleton

Calderdale

Leeds

Harrogate

Sheffield

East Riding of Yorkshire

York

Scarborough

Kirklees

Bradford

Kingston upon Hull, City of

Barnsley

Doncaster

Rotherham

North East Lincolnshire

Selby

Wakefield

North Lincolnshire


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Impact upon local population estimates and projections

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTResource allocation

• Robust population estimates are a key input to local authority funding, resource allocation and planning plus a wide range of business planning activities.

• Migration assumptions have been identified as a source of uncertainty for population estimates in a number of local authorities

• The issue has typically been raised where the immigration estimates are thought to be too low, thus reducing the population estimate

• Situation is blurred by the difficulty of identifying short-term from long-term migrants

• Yorkshire & Humber is a region where the immigration estimates may be too high (but there have been no complaints)

36

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTPopulation estimates & projections

2006-base

Area Name Natural Change Internal International Total Change

Barnsley 495 1,216 -100 1,611

Doncaster 800 242 200 1,242

Rotherham 705 779 100 1,584

Sheffield 2,489 -2,153 3,268 3,605

Bradford 5,247 -2,721 4,347 6,874

Calderdale 937 558 516 2,011

Kirklees 2,342 47 647 3,037

Leeds 5,184 -4,368 8,547 9,363

Wakefield 758 1,416 11 2,184

Kingston upon Hull, City of 1,442 -1,921 2,642 2,163

East Riding of Yorkshire -395 4,000 442 4,047

North East Lincolnshire 447 -58 405 795

North Lincolnshire 284 1,084 300 1,668

York 779 -326 1,947 2,400

Craven -105 521 200 616

Hambleton -5 558 100 653

Harrogate 189 432 1,211 1,832

Richmondshire 189 216 342 747

Ryedale -100 384 300 584

Scarborough -205 789 300 884

Selby 189 616 100 905

South Yorkshire 4,489 84 3,468 8,042

West Yorkshire 14,468 -5,068 14,068 23,468

Humber 1,779 3,105 3,789 8,674

North Yorkshire 932 3,189 4,500 8,621

Leeds City Region 16,016 -2,611 17,426 30,832

Yorkshire & Humber 21,668 1,311 25,826 48,805.3

Average per year 2008-2026

Net Migration

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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTPopulation Projections – Y&H

Yorkshire & HumberScenario:• ‘Revised’ immigration estimates• Maintains existing emigration estimates• Leaves natural change component unchanged

Result• Projected regional population in 2026 is reduced by 220K

2008 2026 incr % incr

1 Base (SNPP 2006) 5,231 6,110 878 17%

2 Base corrected 5,231 5,890 658 13%

Difference -220

Population (000)Scenario

38

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTPopulation Projections – Leeds

LeedsScenario:• ‘Revised’ immigration estimates• Maintains existing emigration estimates• Leaves natural change component unchanged

Result• Projected regional population in 2026 is reduced by 108K

2008 2026 incr % incr

1 Base (SNPP 2006) 770 938 169 22%

2 Base corrected 770 830 61 8%

Difference -108

Population (000)Scenario

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Adding an ethnic dimension

40

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTNINO Ethnicity

• 2001 Census – immigration by ethnic group• Post 2001 – no other source of data on international migration by ethnic group

• NINo statistics – immigration by country of origin

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

White

Mixed

Asian

Black

Chinese & Other

Census NINO EPM

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

White

Mixed

Asian

Black

Chinese &Other

Census NINO EPM

LeedsBradford

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End

General information on the project:http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/projects/migrants/

Link to the paper on immigration estimation:http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0903/0903.0507.pdf

Documents

School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT 1 Peter Boden QMSS2 Immigration and Population Dynamics Summer School Projection methods for ethnicity and immigration