School aged children and younger adults surveillance

1 Public Health Wales, Health Protection Divison

COVID-19 reporting School aged children and younger adults surveillance

11 April, 2022

COVID-19 Report; school aged children and younger adults

Please note the structure of this report was changed on 29/03/2022.

This report contains:

• Case data based directly on PCR laboratory testing records for the Welsh population.

• Case data based on self-reported lateral flow device testing (LFT)

• An adjusted estimate of cases based on a combination of positive PCR tests and, LFT tests without a follow up positive PCR test.

• School absence data for non-COVID and for COVID reasons

• Vaccination coverage amongst school aged children

Data collected as part of the TTP process is no longer presented.

Please note

• Not all cases in school aged children will have been due to transmission associated with a school.

• It is possible an individual’s positive test may appear in both the PCR and LFT data. It is thus important that the PCR and LFT numbers are considered separately. However, adjusted estimates amongst relevant age groups are also provided for the number of PCR positive cases plus, the LFT positive cases that did not have a follow up PCR.

• Data within this report will be affected by testing policy changes. On the 6th January 2022 the policy on COVID-19 testing changed in Wales, removing the requirement for asymptomatic individuals to take a follow up PCR test following a positive LFT. Further updates to testing policy were introduced from 1st April (see https://gov.wales/get-tested-coronavirus-covid-19).

• Adjusted Rate: A testing episode (either PCR or LFT) was counted in the adjusted case episode rates if it met either of the following definitions; (a) a confirmed PCR testing episode, with no other positive PCR test within the previous 42 days or (b) a LFT testing episode without a follow up PCR test and with no other LFT positive in the previous 42 days. Any PCR result within 3 days of a positive LFT superseded the LFT result.



Summary Points

• Primary school aged children: Following a rapid increase in LFT positives and a gradual increase in PCR positives since early March, the detected cases have dropped. In the most recent weeks, there has been a decline in both PCR positive episodes and in LFT positive episodes. A similar pattern is seen in the testing rates for this age group.

• Secondary school aged children: Following an increase in LFT positives and a gradual increase in PCR positives since early March, the detected cases have dropped. In the most recent weeks, there has been a decline in both PCR positive episodes and in LFT positive episodes. A similar pattern is seen in the testing rates for this age group.

• This interpretation is supported by the adjusted view of cases in school aged children (this includes only PCR positives and those LFT positives without PCR confirmation within three days). The increase seen since early March has decreased in the most recent reporting periods.

• Vaccination: Vaccination rates amongst school aged children vary considerably by local authority. At the time of reporting, 40.4% of 12-15 year olds, and 61.3% of 16-17 year olds in Wales had received 2 vaccine doses.

All data correct as of 2022-04-10 unless stated otherwise.



Section One All Wales Data

Figure 1: Confirmed PCR COVID-19 episodes per 100,000 population, by week of sample collection and age groups (children and younger people), Wales.

Figure 2: Confirmed Lateral Flow Test COVID-19 episodes per 100,000 population, by week of sample collection and age groups (children and younger people), Wales.



Figure 3: COVID-19 testing episodes per 100,000 population, by week of sample collection and age groups (children and younger people), Wales

Figure 4: COVID-19 lateral flow testing episodes per 100,000 population, by week of sample collection and age groups (children and younger people), Wales



Figure 5: COVID-19 PCR sample positivity, by week of sample collection and age groups (children and younger people), Wales



Figure 6: Seven day rolling incidence of PCR COVID-19 episodes and a PCR/LFT positive adjusted value. The adjusted value includes PCR positive test episodes and positive LFT test episodes without a follow up PCR test within three days.



Figure 7: Percentage of pupils absent in maintained schools by reason for absence (COVID and non-COVID reasons), note; the reporting of these is slightly less up to date than the testing episode data.

*Most recent data (25/03/2022 – 01/04/2022) omitted due to concerns over validity, a more up to date graph will be proved in future reports once the validity of the data has been established.

Figure 8: Percentage of pupils absent in maintained schools due to COVID related reasons, by school sector, note; the reporting of these is slightly less up to date than the testing episode data.

*Most recent data (25/03/2022 – 01/04/2022) omitted due to concerns over validity, a more up to date graph will be proved in future reports once the validity of the data has been established.



Table 1: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in all Wales residents aged 12 to 15 years old, by health board and local authority.

Data as of: 03/04/2022



Table 2: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in all Wales residents aged 16-17 years old, by health board and local authority.

Data as of: 03/04/2022

Documents

School aged children and younger adults surveillance