Upload
antonio-quirozmagan
View
220
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 1/30
Scheduled Shutdown
Maintenance
What Drives (or
Justifies) a Shutdown?Prepared By:
John ParfettMaintenance Manager
Alberta Envirofuels Inc.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 2/30
Best Practices
General
• Shutdown timing is in alignment with companies
business plan.
• Commit the appropriate resources to the
planning phase.
• Develop a Change Management Process to
control the work preformed and the shutdown
costs.• Ensure that all services required are in place and
under contract if required.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 3/30
Best Practices
Planning
• The Shutdown Planning team hasrepresentatives from all departments.
• The only work performed during the shutdown is
work that cannot be done while the plant isrunning.
• Plan for all activities associated with theshutdown, not just work identified on the worklist.
• Develop detailed plans for the following: – Health, Safety, and Environment.
– Service Contracts.
– Material Management.
– Facilities Management.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 4/30
Best Practices
Scheduling
• Schedule based on Equipment availability
vs. Resource availability.
• Use Milestone Scheduling with Milestonesset up as measurable activities.
• Develop a Work Breakdown Structure
consistent with the Cost Control Structure.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 5/30
Scheduling Philosophies
• Scheduling parameters, controls and reporting
requirements must be identified prior to work
package and schedule development to enable
scheduling of work on a per shift basis andprovide enough information to make effective
decision regarding schedule
• Each job must have its own scheduleindependent of the other work taking place in the
shutdown
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 6/30
Scheduling Philosophies
• Include step for potential repair work and
assign no time
• Maximize pre and post shutdown activities• Schedule must be equipment driven and
prioritized by system (which equipment
needs to be returned to service first asdefined startup sequence), equipment type
and potential for additional work
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 7/30
Scheduling Philosophies
• Schedule key resources (e.g. Safety
Watch, Inspectors, plot space etc.)
• An inspection window will be assigned foractivities like x-ray
• Schedules will be reviewed with major
contractors to achieve buy in and realistictargets
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 8/30
Scheduling Philosophies
• The shutdown coordinator is responsible
for the overall schedule and controlling the
float• Minimize overtime where practical
• Schedule the pre-shutdown work,
operation’s shutdown work, the executionphase mechanical work, operation’s
startup work, and post shutdown work.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 9/30
Shutdown Drivers
A task required to support youroperational goals that can only beexecuted while the process is down. This
will most likely be the Critical Path job.Categories of Shutdown Drivers:
–Reliability
–Legal
–Health, Safety, Environment
–Business
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 10/30
Shutdown Timing
Issue Date it drives us
to shutdown
Earliest date
available to
shutdown
IMPACT
Shutdown
/
Slowdown
Duration
(Days) Risk of delaying
Flare Tip -
Nozzle
To be
determined ASAP Enviro Shutdown 20 Exceedance to Operating Liscence
Flare Tip -
DamageUnknown ASAP
Reliability
/ EnviroShutdown 23
Loss of steam to flare and severe damage to
flare tip
DCS Unit 20
Subsystem
Speed
To be
determined- level
of risk
acceptance at
AEF
September
1st, 2005
Safety /
ReliabilityShutdown 13
DCS Controller lock up. Loss of control to
operate the plant and make changes in a timely
manner
BA-2004Steam
Generating
Coil
Fall 2006 ASAP Legal Shutdown 12Non compliance - ABSA restrains us from
operating the equipment
Unit 30
InspectionsFall 2006 ASAP Legal Shutdown 23
Non compliance - ABSA restrains us from
operating the equipment
Other Plant
Inspections Fall 2006 ASAP Legal Shutdown 20
Non compliance - ABSA restrains us from
operating the equipment / requirement forOperations on-line inspection planner
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 11/30
Shutdown Timing
Option 1
Spring
Option 2
Summer
Option 3
Fall
Market Conditions •Bad timing for product
market
•Possibly poor timing for
product market
•Good timing for product
market
Weather •Not a significant factor •Could be an HSE issue if
temperature >25°C
•Freezing weather conditions
Contract ResourceAvailability
•Resources available – onecompeting shutdown
•No competing shutdown
•Summer holidays may limit
resource availability
•Many large turnaroundscheduled in September
•No competing shutdowns in
October
•“Tired” contactor labour pool
– Safety Risk
Company Resources •Work complete before
summer holiday season
•Summer holiday season –
Family Opportunities
• After holiday season
Productivity •Optimal •Effect on productivity if
temperature >25°C
•With cold weather,
anticipate 40% reduction in
productivity based on
regional labour history &
25% additional cost
Reliability •Earliest opportunity to fix
the equipment
•Steam outage required or
temporary flare system
•Potentially no work to steamor condensate systems
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 12/30
Shutdown Timing
Peak
PLANT Work JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Force 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 3 10 17 24 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29
AT PLASTICS
CELANESE
DOW
ENVIROFUELS 500
ESSO STRATHCONA 50
HUSKY ENERGY 700
NOVA CHEMICALS 100
PETRO-CAN 500
SHELL CHEMICAL
SHELL REFINERY 500
SHELL UPGRADER 1500
SHERRITT 500
SUNCOR 3000
SYNCRUDE 2200/300/500
AGRIUM
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 13/30
BudgetsManagement Perspective
• Fit to the business plan and annual
budgets
• Total cost to the organization• Business interruption
• Cash flow
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 14/30
Strategic Plan
Business
PlanShutdown Plan
Department
Plans
Business Goals
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 15/30
Estimate / Budgeting
Cycle
Shutdown
September 2005
Business Plan
Shutdown Estimate
+/- 25%
June 2004
Frozen Worklist
December 2004
Business Plan
Approval
September 2004
Final A/R
+/- 10%
January 2005
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 16/30
Shutdown Coordinator
Perspective
• Need to have the costs identified
and tracked into areas that make
sense for future reference.
• Work Breakdown Structure
• Benchmarking
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 17/30
Realistic Estimating
• Costs broken into areas that make themost sense.
– Direct
– Indirect
– Routine Maintenance
– Non Routine
– Opportunity Work – Operational Costs
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 18/30
Direct Vs Indirect
• Direct costs include all activities,routine and non-routine, that aredirectly related to the task andcan only be completed when the
facility is shut down. – Man-hours, Materials, Equipment,
Rentals
• Indirect costs include allactivities, routine and non-routine, that are not directlyrelated to the task. – Supervision, Scheduling, Time
Sheets, Payroll
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 19/30
Routine Vs Non-
Routine
• Routine
– Maintenance jobs that are executed on a
consistent cycle (e.g. pressure equipment
inspections, equipment service plans etc…)
• Non Routine
– Maintenance work that are typically 1 of’s that
present themselves in the period betweenscheduled shutdowns (e.g. equipment failures)
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 20/30
Opportunity Work
• Work that makes business sense to
execute during the shutdown.
– Catalyst change outs that can be done on line,scheduled for the same year, but require
significant costs to prepare (e.g. purging,
equipment isolation costs).
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 21/30
Operational Costs
• All operational costs associated with Shutting
Down and Starting Up the plant.
– Utilities
• Nitrogen
• Natural Gas
• Hydrogen
• Water
• Chemicals – Operator and Maintenance Overtime?
– Lost Production?
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 22/30
Contingency
• Contingency is the amount of money whichmust be added to a base estimate to providefor uncertainties.
– The amount of contingency added is directlyrelated to the risk of overrun.
• Contingency is not: – A slush fund or catch all for predictable items such
as escalation. – Provision for added or extra work
– Provision for unforeseeable circumstances(process issues / storms)
– A substitute for good Shutdown management
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 23/30
Contingency was calculated based on assessing the risk
value and weight associated with each Risk Factor for the
shutdown. Scope Changes and Productivity (ColdWeather) were identified as having the biggest impact to
the success of this shutdown. The following table
represents the Risk Factors and their contribution to the
overall contingency:
Example
Risk Factor Input Risk Value Input Risk Weight Contribution to Overall Risk
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 24/30
Risk Factor Input Risk Value Input Risk Weight Contribution to Overall Risk
Design Variations
New Technology 3 5.00 6%
Scope Changes 3.5 20.00 27%
Execution Variations
Contract Plan 1 5.00 2%
Performance 2 15.00 12%
Economic Variations
Market Activity 2 5.00 4%
Labor Conditions 2 5.00 4%
Estimating Variations
Material Quantities 2 10.00 8%
Pricing 2 15.00 12%
Escalation 1.5 5.00 3%
Productivity 4 15.00 23%
Total Weighted Project Risk Factor
2.58 100%
Overall Contingency 25%
Estimate Accuracy +/-
23%
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 25/30
50/50 Estimate
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 26/30
Building From the
Past
• Establish a baseline or benchmark
• Identify the “Heavy Hitters” as areas for
improvement.• Allow time to adjust work plans and
estimates based on actual values post
shutdown.
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 27/30
Cost Control
• Measure Earned Value and adjustaccordingly.
• Manage shared resources
– Scaffolding
– Safety Watch
• Incentive Contracts
• Effective resource scheduling
• World Class HSE Performance
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 28/30
Cost Control
• Costs will be tracked, reported, and
managed on a daily basis.
• The number of Purchase Orders issued tocontractors will be minimized.
• A Work Breakdown Structure will be
developed to track and manage costs.• Plan ahead!
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 29/30
The Influence Curve
0
1020
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 50
Days Before Shutdown
S u c c e s s F a c t o r s
8/10/2019 Scheduledshutdownmaintenance 13352344159941 Phpapp02 120423212708 Phpapp02
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/scheduledshutdownmaintenance-13352344159941-phpapp02-120423212708-phpapp02 30/30
Summary
• Use Best Practices
• Get the right people involved
• Alignment with company strategic andbusiness plans
• Plan ahead