Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by …469510/... · 2011-12-26 · Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by 2020 within a world’s context

Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus

by 2020 within a World’s Context

A L E H K L I A T S K O

Master of Science ThesisStockholm 2010

Aleh Kliatsko

Master of Science ThesisSTOCKHOLM 2010

Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by 2020 within a World’s Context

PRESENTED AT

INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Supervisor & Examiner:

Ronald Wennersten

TRITA-IM 2010:08 ISSN 1402-7615 Industrial Ecology, Royal Institute of Technology www.ima.kth.se

Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by 2020 within a world’s context

THINK GLOBAL – ACT LOCAL


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ABSTRACT The aim of the master’s work is to assess the wind-power development prospects and proceeding therefrom assume scenarios of the wind-power development in Belarus until 2020 reasoning from the situations and tendencies common to both the national and world power industry. In my master’s work I have referred to ХХI-century current problems: procuring energy preparedness of the Republic of Belarus and reducing the anthropogenic impact on the biosphere and reducing impact on the climate. For Belarus characteristic is a variety of environmental challenges. For instance, one of the most urgent problems is Chernobyl disaster aftermath which affected Belarus to a very great extent. In my opinion some of these global problems may be partially solved by way of using alternative energy sources, specifically the wind-power engineering. Such a narrow enough notion as the prediction of the wind-power engineering development in Belarus is described in my work by way of so deep and wide analysis of issues dealing with the wind-power engineering development and prediction: the encyclical analysis of the state and development of the power industry in its entirety in Belarus and how to reach energy preparedness at the time when effects of the finance-and-economic crisis are currently added to other negative factors. It has been done specially for the purpose of making such an accurate prediction as possible having analyzed the whole range of interrelated problems. I pitched upon the prediction of the development of the wind-power engineering precisely until 2020 since I’d like to be tied to the basic document: “the National Strategy of Sustainable Social-and-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for a Period until 2020”. In my work I have analyzed a possibility and horizons of developing the power industry in Belarus based on sustainable development principles. I have proved a capability and profitability of developing renewable energy sources in Belarus. And the main emphasis was on considering the wind-power engineering. For Belarusian conditions there has been proposed an optimum alternative of the integrated approach to developing the wind-power engineering, i.e. joint using the wind-power engineering with other renewable and exhaustible energy sources. In this manner there has been refuted an opinion generally held that the wind power engineering development in Belarus is prospectless. In so doing the author, prior to turning to a major issue of the work: the prospects of developing the wind-power engineering in the Republic of Belarus, has given an estimate of world reserves of fuel resources and drawn up the following conclusions: deposits of fossil fuels are depleting and, consequently, the cost of mining operations will grow. Due to the fact that the main extraction of power resources is shifted to extreme regions the cost of conveying energy products is growing. Belarus has to import deficient power resources. Recently the price for Russian energy products for Belarus has grown dramatically.


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I have also approached the issue of expediency of building an atomic power station in Belarus. The prospects and consequences of using unconventional renewable energy sources in the Republic of Belarus (with no wind-power engineering) are considered in all their aspects followed by a detailed consideration of the prospects of developing the wind-power engineering in the Republic of Belarus. Based on the above data there have been proposed two scenarios of developing the wind power engineering in Belarus: Scenario 1 «Unsustainable» and Scenario 2, which I called «Middle way to sustainable energy engineering». Key words: Renewable Energy, wind-driven power plant, hybrid power systems, diesel-electric system, wind solar systems, Scenario, Backcasting approach.


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SAMMANFATTNING Syftet med magister-arbetet är att bedöma vindkraftverkens utvecklingsmöjligheter och därifrån anta scenarier för vindkraftutvecklingen i Vitryssland till 2020, genom resonemang från de situationer och tendenser som är gemensamma för både nationella och internationella kraftindustrin. I mitt magister-arbete har jag hänvisat till 2000-talets nuvarande problem: att skaffa energi-säkerhet i Republiken Vitryssland, minska effekterna av mänsklighetens påverkan på biosfären och minska påverkan på klimatet. Vitryssland kännetecknas av en rad olika utmaningar på miljöområdet. Till exempel är en av de mest akuta problemen Tjernobylkatastrofens efterdyningar som påverkade Vitryssland i mycket stor utsträckning. Min åsikt är att en del av dessa globala problem kan delvis lösas genom att använda alternativa energikällor, särskilt vindkraft-tekniken. Ett sådant specifierat begrepp som förutsägelsen av vindkraftteknikens utveckling i Vitryssland beskrivs i mitt arbete i form av en djup och bred analys av frågor som handlar om vindkraftteknikens utveckling och prognoser: Analysen av läget och utvecklingen av kraftindustrin i sin helhet i Vitryssland och hur man når energi-säkerhet när effekterna av finanskrisen för närvarande läggs till andra negativa faktorer. Det har gjorts speciellt för att göra en sådan precis förutsägelse som möjligt genom att ha analyserat hela raden av sammanhängande problem. Jag fokuserade på prognoser om utvecklingen av vindkraft-teknik innan 2020 eftersom jag vill vara bunden till det grundläggande dokument: ”den nationella strategin för hållbar social-och ekonomisk utveckling i Vitryssland under en period fram till 2020”. I mitt arbete har jag analyserat en mängd olika möjlighet för att utveckla kraftindustrin i Vitryssland som bygger på principerna för hållbar utveckling. Jag har visat att det går att utveckla förnybara energikällor i Vitryssland, som är både kapabla och lönsamma. Med sikte på att använda sig av vindkraft-tekniken. För de vitryska förhållandena har det föreslagits ett optimalt alternativ för den integrerade strategin för att utveckla vindkraft-tekniken, dvs gemensamt med hjälp av vindkraft-teknik och med andra förnybara och icke förnybara energikällor. På detta sätt har det finns det en allmän åsikt angående vindkraft-teknikens utveckling i Vitryssland, som säger att det inte finns några direkta förutsättningar för denna typ av energi. Därigenom har författaren, innan upptagandet av huvud frågan i arbetet:,utsikterna att utveckla vindkraft teknik i Republiken Vitryssland, gjort en beräkning av världens reserver av bränsle-resurser och kommit fram till följande slutsatser: depåerna av fossila bränslen håller på att ta slut och därmed kommer kostnaderna för utvinning att växa. På grund av det faktum att huvuddelen av utvinningen av bränsle flyttas till extrema regioner så kommer kostnaden för att tillhandahålla energiprodukter växa. Vitryssland måste importera bristfälligt bränsle. Nyligen har priset för ryska energiprodukter för Vitryssland ökat dramatiskt. Jag har också tagit upp frågan om lämpligheten av att bygga ett kärnkraftverk i Vitryssland. Förutsättningarna och konsekvenserna av att använda okonventionella förnybara energikällor


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i Republiken Vitryssland (utan vindkraft-teknik) anses i alla avseenden följt av en detaljerad bedömning av möjligheterna att utveckla vindkraft tekniken i Vitryssland. Baserat på ovanstående data har det lagts fram två scenarier för utvecklandet av vindkraft-tekniken i Vitryssland: Scenario 1 «Ohållbart» och Scenario 2, som jag kallade «Vägen mellan hållbar energi-teknologi».


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ACKNOWLEDGMENT First of all, I am so grateful to my supervisor professor Ronald Wennersten, for his support and guidance during my research. I would also like to thank the Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Vladimir Loginov at the Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Science of Belarus, who recommended me to study at Master’s program at Sustainable Technology who was a person in Belarus that always eagerly helped me. At the same time I would like to thank all the interviewees (E. Shirokov, S. Kundas, N. Lavrentiev). Special thanks to Swedish Institute for granting me scholarships in Visby program for the whole period of time my Master Program at Sustainable Technogy at KTH. I would like to thank the whole division of Industrial Ecology for friendly environment, understanding and support. I would like to thank all teachers I had a chance to meet during my study period, for all knowledge given to me. Great thanks to Karin-who was taking care of me and being always so friendly.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………...3 1. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………...14 1.1 Background……………………………………………………………………………….14 1.2 Aim and objectives………………………………………………………………………..15 1.3 Framework………………………………………………………………………………..15 1.4 Methodology……………………………………………………………………………...15 1.5 Limitations………………………………………………………………………………..16 2. SCENARIO METHODS…………………………………………………………………17 2.1 Backcasting approach…………………………………………………………………….17 3. PARAMETERS FOR BELARUS……………………………………………………….18 3.1 Population Growth………………………………………………………………………..19 3.2 Gross domestic product (GDP)…………………………………………………………...20 4. GENERAL ESTIMATION OF WORLD FUEL RESOURCES………………………20 4.1 Environmental issues from fossil fuels…………………………………………………...21 4.2 Health issues from fossil fuels……………………………………………………………21 5. FOSSIL FUEL AND CARBON PRICES……………………………………………….21 6. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION…………………………………………………..22 7. CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION IN BELARUS……………………………………23 7.1 History of power engineering development in Belarus…………………………………...23 7.2 Did energy problems in Belarus come from USSR period?...............................................24 7.3 General characteristic of power engineering in Belarus………………………………….25 7.4 The dynamic of price changing of Russian gas for Belarus……………………………...26 7.5 To assess perspectives of use of natural resources of Belarus for energy production……………………………………………………………………………………27 7.5.1 Oil and associated gas…………………………………………………………………………………………………27 7.5.2 Peat……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....27 7.5.3 Oil shales………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..28 7.5.4 Brown coal………………………………………………………………………………………………………………28 7.6 Discuss ongoing intention to build a first nuclear power station in Belarus through economic, environmental, social aspects………………..……………………………………29 7.7 Evaluate prospects for the use of all renewable energy in Belarus (excluding wind energy)………………………………………………………………………………………..31 7.7.1 Hydro Power……………………………………………………………………………………………………………31 7.7.2 Bio-fuels………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….32 7.7.3 Solar energy……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..32 7.7.4 Solid domestic waste (SDW)…………………………………………………………………………………………..32 7.7.5 Phytomass……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….33 7.7.6 Crop production waste………………………………………………………………………………………………...33 7.8 Major ways of RES development in the next years in Belarus and role of cooperation projects to promote of renewable energy using………………………………………………34 8. FORECASTING OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES………………………………...35 8.1 In historical perspective…………………………………………………….35 9. ESTIMATION OF WORLD WIND-POWER ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT...38 10. EVALUATION OF PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND POWER IN BELARUS………………………………………………………………………………..39 10.1 Prediction of wind power development for Belarus…………………………………….44 10.2 Describe characteristics of wind speed on the territory of Belarus……………………...46 10.3 Assess the economic aspects of wind power development……………………………...48 10.4 Complex approach in using wind power in Belarus…………………………………48 10.4.1 Wind-Diesel Systems....................................................................................................................................50


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10.4.2 Wind solar systems……………………………………………………………………………………………………50 10.4.3 Use of WDPs with micro hydropowerstations…………………………………………………………………….50 10.5 Compare advent. and disadvant. of using Wind-Power Engineering in Belarus..............50 11. ENERGY SAVING IN ALL SPHERES OF LIFE……………………………………51 12. RESULTS………………………………………………………………………………..54 12.1 Scenarios………………………………………………………………………………...54 13. DISCUSSION……………………………………………………………………………56 14. RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………………………………………..56 CONCLUSIONS.……………………………………………………………………………57 FUTURE RESEARCH AND ACTIVITY…………………………………………………59 SUMMARY OF APPENDED PAPERS…………………………………………………...60 REFERENCE………………………………………………………………………………..63 APPENDIX 1………………………………………………………………………………...65 APPENDIX 2………………………………………………………………………………...66 APPENDIX 3………………………………………………………………………………...66 APPENDIX 4………………………………………………………………………………...67


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GLOSSARY OF TERMS Sustainability – In the context of industrial ecology, the state in which humans living on Earth are able to meet their needs over time while nurturing planetary life-support systems. Industrial Ecology – the study about industrial organisms, their relationship with whole world, actions to environmental with destroying global sustainability. Renewable Energy – energy sources – namely, solar, wind, and geothermal – that will not be depleted by use. Wind – the conversion of wind energy into useful form, such as electricity, using wind turbines. Wind energy is plentiful, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions when it displaces fossil-fuel-derived electricity. Hybrid power systems – the use of a hybrid power system presupposes the use of WDP together with other power supplies (diesel generators, solar modules, micro hydropower stations etc). Scenario - description of a possible future situation, based on assumptions about the future, and characterized by choice of system boundaries, allocation methods, technology, time and space. Backcasting scenarios reason from a desired future situation and offer a number of different strategies to reach this situation.


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ABBREVIATIONS EE ─ Energy Efficiency FSU ─ former Soviet Union RES ─ renewable energy sources GDP ─ Gross Domestic Product ISEU ─ International State Ecological University named A.D. Sakharov WDPP ─ wind-driven power plant WPS ─ wind power station HPS ─ hybrid power systems DES ─ diesel-electric system WSS ─ Wind solar systems SA ─ solarvoltaic array SDW ─ Solid domestic waste APS ─ Atomic power station HPP ─ heat power plants FER ─ fuel and energy resources NPP ─ Nuclear Power Plant UNDP ─ United Nations Development Programme IAEA ─ International Atomic Energy Agency OPEC ─ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries


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LIST OF UNIT MEASURES bln ─ billion m – million trn – trillion USD – United States dollar EUR – Euro tcm – thousand cubic meters bcm – billion cubic meters GW ─ gigawatt MW ─ megawatt kW ─ kilowatt kWh – kilowatt-hour sq. km ─ square kilometre


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LIST OF APPENDED PAPERS

• 2009 ─ Participation in ХII international conference «Ecology. Human. Society», National Technical University of Ukraine «KPI», Kiev, Ukraine;

• 2008 ─ Participation in ХI international conference SDPromo I - 2008 «Ecology. Human. Society», National Technical University of Ukraine «KPI», Kiev, Ukraine.

Paper 1 Kliatsko. A. 2008. Complex approach in using wind power engineering in the Republic of Belarus. Collection of articles, p. 246 (in English); Paper 2 Kliatsko. A. 2009. Energy efficient building development in Belarus within a European context. Collection of articles, p. 305 (in English).


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1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Energy is core component in all countries, eradicating poverty, improving living standards and a key resource for sustainable development. The United Nations Commission on Environment and Development (the Bruntland Commission) defined, sustainable development as a development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Belarus as other countries around the world is faced with this agenda. Nowadays, a large domination of fossil fuels like oil, coal and natural gas on the energy supply market can be observed. There is a critical need to develop sustainable energy management systems. The growing interest in energy resources is connected with global warming and consequences of the greenhouse effect. Global warming is a change in climate over a time period that ranges from decades to centuries. Changes in climate that have occurred over the recent century and those which are predicted are mainly a result of human behaviour rather than natural changes. Human activities that contribute to climate change include in particular the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture and land-use changes, like deforestation. These cause emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main gas responsible for global warming, as well as of other “greenhouse” gases. To bring climate change to a halt, global greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced significantly. The conversion to clean, sustainable and efficient generation of renewable energy on the lines of the nature not inflicting damage to the climate has been initiated throughout the world and is vital nowadays, including Belarus. However, in this field Belarus has been lagging behind as compared to advanced countries. Globally the sustainable development requires continuous reduction of the application of resource-intensive technologies when manufacturing products and human intervention in ecosystems (Kundas, 2007). Over the last 100 years global energy use has increased 16 times, and the global economy 14 times, almost proportional. Future will see significant increase in the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) such as wind power because society begins to understand that changing the power source for household and other needs is in its own interest. Depletion of the fossil fuel reserves will lead to the increase in the use of RES. Several scenarios have been conducted in the World to describe the alternative hypothetical futures in a consistent and coherent way that reflects different perspectives on past, present, and future energy developments, within a certain spatial domain. These scenarios can serve as a basis for the real action. The method applied in the scenarios for Belarus which is developed by me is the backcasting approach. This is a normative method to analyze future options from a sustainability point of view.


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In my work, I suggest to use an integrated approach in the use of wind power in Belarus that is to use wind energy in conjunction with other renewable and non-renewable energy (Solar Power, Hydro Power, Biofuels and Biomass Power). Therefore, in order to determine the potential and opportunities for the development of wind energy in an integrated approach (together with other both renewable and nonrenewable energy sources) in Belarus and to make accurate prediction of wind energy development in Belarus. 1.2 Aim and objectives The overall aim of the Master Thesis is to assess perspectives of wind-power development in complex approach in order to use wind-driven power plant (WDPP) together with other power supplies (diesel generators, solar modules, micro hydropower stations etc.) in the Republic of Belarus and give some scenarios of wind-power development through 2020. The specific objectives have been identified for achieving the aim:

• To give the general estimation of world Fuel Resources; • To assess perspectives of use of natural resources of Belarus for energy production (oil,

natural gas, peat, oil shale's, brown coal); • Discuss ongoing intention to build a first nuclear power stations in Belarus through

economic, environmental and social aspects; • Evaluate prospects for the use of all renewable energy in Belarus; • Analyse Prospects for the development of wind power in the Republic of Belarus and

to prove a capability and profitability of developing WP in Belarus; • Investigate possible energy scenarios of Wind Power Development in Belarus by 2020

using backcasting approach. 1.3 Framework This thesis is carried out at the Department of Industrial Ecology, the Royal Institute of Technology/KTH that focuses on interdisciplinary research in sustainable development. This report fits into their Energy Management, Scenario Methods and also Climate Change researches, of which Ronald Wennersten is one who responsible for its at the Department of Industrial Ecology.

1.4 Methodology One of the main goals of «Sustainable Technology» Master’s Program is to provide for the students from developing countries the up-to-date information in the field of Sustainable Development, in order that they would use the acquired knowledge in their home countries and, in particular, would write their Master’s Thesis in topics, which are relevant for their home countries. So there are two essential problems in Belarus Energy Supply and Environmental Protection Issues. I have chosen a research area «Application of wind power in Belarus and scenario methods» in order to investigate it in my thesis. I had few study trips to Belarus in order to collect information. The method used in this thesis is a combination of interviews; articles collected from books, newspapers, recent reports, journals and some reliable internet sources. I assessed and analysed the sources of data, and


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finally drew up the conclusions. All sources of information have been acknowledged in the reference section. I visited and contacted with the researches in order to collect some data about wind energy and other renewable energy sources the following research institute in Belarus: the Institute of Environmental Management (former name: the Institute for problems of Nature Resources Use and Ecology), the Research Institute “Ecology”, the Department of Industrial Ecology of Belarusian State Technological University, the Department of Environmental Economics of Belarusian State Economic University, the Department of Ecology of Belarusian National Technical University, Belhydrometeocenter (in Minsk). Few very useful meetings were organized with my supervisor Ronald Wennersten, in order to get his some very good suggestions and guidelines concerning some issues and to specify some points for the Master Thesis report. Boundaries of the project are to investigate possibility of wind power development for Belarus and create possible scenarios for that using backcasting approach and do not include evaluation of economic efficiency of wind power (there was only assessed the dynamic of price of produced electricity for wind power). 1.5 Limitations Concerning that Belarus at the moment doesn’t have a strong renewable energy management policy; collected data from different sources can be different. In my paper I studied the possibility of Wind Power Development in Belarus. I tried to investigate Wind Power Perspective in Belarus and to make possible scenarios of Wind Power Development using backcasting approach.


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2. SCENARIO METHODS Scenario categories:

• Predictive scenarios What will happen? • Explorative scenarios What can happen? • Normative scenarios How can a certain target be reached?

There are three main methods of approach. This is: predictive, explorative and normative. Predictive are useful for highlighting uncertainties in a few well-defined variables (within a given structure). Explorative approach can be used to structure broad qualitative uncertainty and to support. Normative approach can be used to explore possible solutions to a problem, especially when present trends tend to make the problem worse. Predictive approaches based forecasting. We can choose this method when uncertainties are limited: short term, or; very stable system dynamics. Explorative approach based explorative scenarios. We can choose this method in the face of structural (deep) uncertainty and pragmatic goals: long term, or; turbulent dynamics. Normative approach, based backcasting. We can choose this method when goals are visionary and the system structure can be changed: long term and; present trends will lead to large problems. 2.1 Backcasting approach Desire to know future is normal. Sometimes it helps to correct the future and reach particular targets. Nowadays, when energy resources are a concern and fossil fuels are limited desire to know renewables' potential to meet energy demand is strong. Scenario of Wind Power Development is useful tool to create powerful expectations of the potential of emerging technologies and mobilizing resources necessary for their realization. Using backcasting approach actually helps to tackle obstacles, develop know-how of the roadmap, and accelerate progress towards the related sustainability goals.

Figure 1 Backcasting Method Backcasting is a methodological approach within transforming normative scenarios looking back from a particular future endpoint to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures would be required to reach that point (Robinson 1982). Images-of-the-future shows how a solution to a major societal problem might look. The aim of the Backcasting is to provide policymakers and the interested general public with images of the future as a background for opinion forming and decisions. There are four main characteristics of the Backcasting approach:


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• Backcasting starts with highly important target-fulfilling images of the future, but this target seems to be unreachable without major changes. It means there should be a discussion of what changes would be needed in order to reach the images;

• Backcasting is the development of images of the future in which the target has been met; • When the problem to be studied is complex, affecting many sectors and levels of society; • When the time horizon is long enough to allow considerable scope for deliberate choice.

When Images-of-the-future have been developed and validated as to their feasibility, one tries to find one or several paths leading from the present situation to the Images. One debated part of Backcasting is how much emphasis should be put on describing the path towards the images of the future (Robinson 1982, Dreborg 1996, Höjer&Mattsson 2000, SitCit Project).

In practice, the back-casting approach has so far mainly been used in studies of alternative energy futures or on futures during which greenhouse gas emissions are less than now.

Backcasting in 5 steps: Step 1 ─ Strategic Problem orientation Analysis Step 2 ─ Prepare a vision of a desirable future Vision Step 3 ─ Backcasting what do we need to make this come true? Step 4 ─ Further elaboration, detailing Step 5 ─ Implementation, Policy implications, organizing embedding and follow-up (Mulder, 2007)

Parameters have a significant role to let the scenarios be more plausible.

3. PARAMETERS FOR BELARUS The Republic of Belarus is located in Eastern Europe. It is bordered to the east by Russia, to the south by Ukraine, to the west by Poland and to the north by Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus was previously part of the Soviet Union, but is now a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Belarus has a cool continental climate moderated by maritime influences from the Atlantic Ocean. Average January temperatures range from -4° in the southwest to -8° in the north. The Republic is generally poorly endowed with mineral resources. However, one of the world's largest reserves of potassium salts. The country also is a world leader in the production of peat. Among the other minerals recovered are building materials, quartz sands for glassmaking, and small deposits of gold and diamonds. Belarus is situated in the mix forest zone and known its swamps and lakes. Belarus has significant environmental problems, especially those resulting from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in 1986 and from industrial pollution. It is heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supply and foreign trade.


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Figure 2 Belarus on the map of Europe

3.1 Population Growth

Sustainability of a country’s development is determined by the number and quality of population. The current demographic situation is marked by natural loss of population caused by steadily declining birth rate and rising death rate, deterioration of age structure and, as a consequence, ageing of the nation. In order to mitigate these adverse trends population concern is important area of Sustainable Development for Belarus.

Table 1 Short description of Belarus (Source: SITE Country report: Belarus) Parameter Amount

Land area (sq km) 207,600

Population (in thousands) 9751 Urban 7,059

Main cities:

Minsk 1,741 Gomel 481 Mogilev 365 Vitebsk 342 Grodno 315

Population density (pop/sq km) 47 Life expectancy at birth (years) 68,8 Infant mortality rate (per’000) 6,4 Population growth rate (%/yr) -0,5


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3.2 Gross domestic product (GDP)

Since 1996, Belarus has made great strides in achieving an economic recovery and growth. As most of Europe’s former socialist states, the transformation of Belarusian economy has taken place under strong government control. As a result of this approach and also low price for energy resources from Russia, the economic structure has improved. Having achieved high rates of growth, Belarus has avoided many of the extreme social costs of transformation experienced by other transitional economies. An important challenge for Belarus today is to ensure that the rates of economic growth are sustainable.

Figure 3 Gross domestic product and Gross domestic product per head

4. GENERAL ESTIMATION OF WORLD FUEL RESOURCES

According to the IEA «Oil and gas will continue to do dominate world energy supply until at least 2030 if current energy policies remain in place and do not change. Oil demand will grow by more than 50% between 2002 and 2030 and that gas demand will almost double». This shows that the consumption of fossil fuels is still going to increase during the next few decades even if the reserves are limited. As it was calculated by IEA, «The world contains at least 20 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of oil and gas while 5 to 10 trillion boe are technically recoverable today. Oil and gas totalling 1,5 trillion boe have been produced to date. The same amount will be needed to meet demand over next 25 years». To overcome the problem of finite resources, the technology should be directed towards recovery: to turn resources into reserves. There are a lot of natural reserves that still have not been used.

• Deep offshore (exploration below 400 meters of see level) or remote regions; • Use of «non-conventional» deposits (Canadian oil sands, heavy oils, oil shales and

non-conventional gas); • Use CO2

injection to combine enhanced oil recovery with CO2 storage.


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4.1 Environmental issues from fossil fuels All the varieties of fuels have some impact on the environment. Fossil fuel power plants release large amounts of air pollutants and large land areas ruined during the mining process.

• The largest environmental impacts from the combustion of fossil fuels come from the emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx. The consequences of these pollutants are the climate change, acid rains, etc;

• Nuclear power plants are not better since they are generating and accumulating

large quantities of radioactive wastes.

Table 2 Environmental issues from fossil fuels

Fossil fuels Emissions of CO2

(greenhouse gas), SO2 and NOx

Global warming Climate change

Acid rains Eutrophication

Smog and particles Loss of biodiversity

4.2 Health issues from fossil fuels Fossil fuels discharge pollutants into the air by burning. The costs of pollution for human include health effects like rising rates of asthma, especially among children and in cities, while renewable energy is harmless and contribute little to climate change. 5. FOSSIL FUEL AND CARBON PRICES Two most important factors which influence the price of any good including fossil fuel (oil), is the supply and the demand. The supply and the demand show very well the economic behavior of subjects on the market. The buyer has his or her idea about the fair price and the seller has his or hers. Some of the players lower the prices, others push them up. But the market forms so called common prices, the so-called equilibrium of volume of manufacture is established. Such market balance is provided due to the continuous interaction of the supply and the demand. The manufacturers are "punished" for overproduction of any goods by decrease of the market price and their incomes. For example, in the beginning of 1990, in the situation of a continuous prices falling for oil, a number of oil-producing countries, first of all OPEC members, have adopted a strictly controlled quota of the volume of its extraction, in order not to allow the prices to fall continuously below. As a result of deficiency of oil in the market, there was an increase of the price for these goods. Hence, at the raised demand, the buyer is compelled to pay for the same volume of oil the additional sum of money. Or, one more example: in 1996, at a rather steady balance between the demand and the consumption of oil, the average price for it was supported at a level of 145 USD for 1 tone. In 1997 it has decreased to 135 dollars, and in 1998 has fallen catastrophically - to 80 dollars for 1 tone. It is natural that such decrease has sharply reduced incomes of the petroexporting countries. Again, in order to increase such incomes, the OPEC country-members have started to reduce their oil recovery. As a result, its price again began to increase in such a way that by the end of 1999 it


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has reached 160-170 USD for 1 tone, and in the beginning of 2000 it has exceeded the level of 200 dollars. It has struck the economy of the main petroimporting countries, first of all, USA, Great Britain, and Germany. After the energy crisis of 1970s, the energy policy of many developed countries has been directed on development of renewable energy sources. Thus, the problem of supply of energy to the consumers was solved and reliance of the countries on import of energy resource, as there is a huge territorial break between the main areas of extraction (Persian gulf, Southeast Asia, Caribbean basin, Northern and the Western Africa, Russia) and the consumption of oil (the USA, the Western Europe, Japan) decreased. Introduction of renewed energy sources in the general power balance of the country was carried out owing to a stimulating tax policy in this area. The fluctuation of the prices for oil is also influenced by the stability in the region of extraction (as, for example, the war between Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, war in Iraq) and even the risk or potential threat of the beginning of war will cause a sharp change of the price for this energy carrier on the largest world share markets. 6. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION Between 1999 and 2020, total world energy use is projected to grow from 403 EJ to 645 EJ - a 60-percent increase (Lennart Nilsson etc 2007).

Figure 4 World energy consumption by fuel type

Developing countries as a whole are projected to account for 60 percent of the increment in total energy use over the projection period, compared with the industrialized world’s 30 percent. The emerging, transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) account for the balance.


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Table 3 The forecast World energy consumption by fuel type for a period 1999-2020 Energy source Amount Description

Oil 40% share of total energy use

Projected to remain the dominant energy fuel for 1999-2020. Industrialized countries: oil use increases in the transportation sector Developing countries: oil use increases for all end uses

Natural gas Growth of 3.2 percent annually

Expected to be the fastest growing primary energy source worldwide. Gas could be used in combined-cycle gas turbines, making it a more attractive choice for countries interested in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Gas burns more cleanly than either coal or oil.

Coal Projected to increase at a rate of 1.7 percent per year

Coal consumption decreases for Western Europe and the EE/FSU countries where natural gas is increasingly being used. Developing countries: coal use larger increases (the largest for China and India)

Nuclear power Expected to increase by 11,3%

The highest growth in nuclear generation is projected for the developing countries, where consumption of electricity from nuclear power increases by 4.7 percent per year

Hydropower and other renewable energy sources

Projected to grow by 2.1% annually

With fossil fuel prices projected to remain relatively low, renewable energy sources are not expected to be widely competitive, and the renewable share of total energy use is expected to decline from 9 percent in 1999 to 8 percent in 2020 Developing countries (like China, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam) much of the growth in renewable energy use is driven by the installation of large-scale hydroelectric power plants. Developed countries, non-hydroelectric renewable energy sources are projected to predominate, especially wind, biomass and geothermal power.

7. CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION IN BELARUS 7.1 History of power engineering development in Belarus Within the bounds of the USSR, every fifth consumer of Belarus was provided with the electricity supplied from neighboring power systems. For that purpose, there were five power transmission lines linking Belarus to Lithuania, three lines linked the country to the Smolensk


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Region in Russia and another two - to the Ukraine. In its turn, the power grid of Belarus was feeding power to some areas in Pskov and Bryansk Regions of Russia. Also, the united power grid within the bounds of the Soviet Union enabled to optimize the supply of electric power to consumers in Belarus in terms of the offered prices for energy. The price for electric power generated at nuclear power plants, located in neighboring republics, was initially lower than that of the power produced at electricity generating stations within the republic. Moreover, in Belarus the cost of power generation was affected by quite a high degree of wear of the available equipment. After collapse of the USSR, the electric power was continuously supplied to Belarus from neighboring power systems located in Lithuania and Russia in spite of the fact that Belarus was in position to cover its own needs for electricity through the use of available power capacities within the country. Notwithstanding the national program for modernization of electric power plants adopted in 2005, the import of electricity will be exercised until 2020. The country is currently planning to purchase abroad up to 4 bln kWh annually. In 1985, the electric power stations in Belarus ceased burning solid fuels (coal and peat) and went on to using gas and fuel oil. Moreover, it was the gas that was laid stress upon. If in 1991 the natural gas consumption for power generation needs in Belarus amounted to about 65% in the consumption structure, to date it has already come to 80%. For example, in the fuel reserves structure of the Lukoml hybrid power, the largest state district power plant in Belarus, the gas consumption makes up 98%, while that of oil amounts to only 2%. The above state of things has resulted in the power system of Belarus being totally dependent on the gas supplies from Russia and the offered gas price. Though saw adoption of the state program, targeting to increase a share of local resources (with the peat at issue again) for production of electric and heat power, the process as such appears to be both complicated and long-term. As viewed by many experts in Belarus, construction of the national atomic power station (APS) can be a more effective alternative for solving the power resource problem.

Below I am going to discuss these questions.

7.2 Did energy problems in Belarus come from USSR period? Recent energy problems in Belarus have a number of features that are largely a consequence of the energy policy of the USSR. Since 1960, this policy was based on the following aspects: the country has huge, almost inexhaustible reserves of oil, so there's no need to save. As a result, in many republics of the USSR, including Belarus, built gigant refineries, working on the simplest pattern processing. The republics of the Soviet Union have never been considered as independent economic entities. By the early 1990's there was created a situation in which Belarus, with its energy-intensive industries such as chemical and petrochemical, machine building and metal processing, construction materials, was only 10-15% provided their own fuel and energy resources. Recently, the prices offered to Belarus for energy products have increased dramatically. Thus, the major task for the country in the nearest future will be diversification of importers of


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energy products, development of renewable energy sources and, in particular, that of the wind power generation.

7.3 General characteristic of power engineering in Belarus Installed capacity of all power stations in 2004 amounted to approximately 7.80 GW. Basis of electric power system is heat power plants. Native fuel and energy resources (FER) received in the Republic of Belarus amount to not more than 15-17 % from the total requirements. The republic imports (mainly from Russia) all consumable coal, more than 90 % of oil, 100 % of natural gas and a quarter of liquefied gas. Power consumption of the products of our enterprises is very high. Problems, which fuel and energy complex of the republic is faced to, are as follows:

• full satisfaction of requirements in terms of fuel and energy resources of the Belarusian consumers;

• maintenance of rational structure of fuel and energy balance of the country;

• search of additional energy sources

In the Republic of Belarus approximately 15.8 % of gross production of the country’s

industry falls on electrical power engineering. Though electric energy is widely used in all branches of national economy, its basic amount (approximately 60%) is consumed by the industry.

A general description of energy market in the Republic of Belarus

• Belarus has to import natural gas and oil ─ Belarus has no significant reserves of fossil fuels. Approximately 83% of entire fuel and power resources consumed in Belarus are imported ones; moreover, 98% of the imported resources are currently coming from Russia; • However, strategic location and «inherited» refinery capacity has made gas and oil

(increasingly) important for the economy; • Recently increasing price wedge for both oil and gas, oil products about 40% of

exports, up from below 20% in 2001;

• Low gas prices has made it the principle energy source in the economy (60% of total energy consumption, (higher than Russia and Ukraine, much higher than Lithuania and Poland (25 and 10% respectively);

• Low energy cost has given a competitive advantage for other sectors as well.1

Peculiarity of electric power industry in the republic consists of the fact that practically

100% of all produced energy is provided by heat power plants operating on imported fuel. More than 50% of energy is produced in Minsk and Gomel Regions. But the most powerful power station in the Republic of Belarus is Lukoml hybrid power having capacity of 2.4 mln


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kW, located in Vitebsk Region. Beryozovskaya GRES (State district power station) has capacity of about 1 GW.

Part of electric energy is produced at heat power plants (HPP), which are located in

large cities as well as HPP of several enterprises: sugar factories, «Belaruskaliy» Association (Belarus Potassium Association), Dobrushskaya paper factory.

Involving of RES in economic cycling process is considered to be a component of

energy saving, the purpose of which is realization of legal, organizational, scientific, industrial, technical and economic measures directed at the effective utilisation of energy resources.

Development and use of native RES is a key and binding element of increase of energy supply security, energy saving and increase of economy energy efficiency.

7.4 The dynamic of price changing of Russian gas for Belarus

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New situation in 2007 year:

• In 2006 gas price increased from $47/tm3 to $100/tm3 in 2007 and going to increase to $223/tm3 by 2011;

• In 2007 cost will increased to $1047 mn and steadily increases to $3546 mn by 2011;

• Oil increases with $90 per ton from 2007 to 2011 and given changed rules on export

revenues and taxes the net for oil is around $660 mn this year and increasing to $1000 mn by 2011;

• Total effect is $1,5 to $2 bn in 2007 and increasing to around $5 bn by 2011.

7.5 TO ASSESS PERSPECTIVES OF USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES OF BELARUS FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION 7.5.1 Oil and associated gas The explored oil deposits in the territory of Belarus are concentrated in the Pripyat Saddle, the oil-and-gas-bearing region with an area of about 34 ths sq.km. The initial recoverable oil resources were estimated at 355.56 mln tonnes. 46% of the above resources were transferred to the commercial category. In the period from 1965 to 2006, 63 new oil fields were stricken (total estimated reserves of 168 mln tones). Respectively, unexplored oil resources are estimated at a level of 187.56 mln tonnes. Since the beginning of the field development there have been produced 108 mln tonnes of oil and 11.3 bln cu m of associated gas; the residual oil reserves of commercial categories amount to 58 mln tonnes and those of associated gas - to 34.3 mln cu m. The major part of oil (96%) is produced from the active remaining reserves, which make up 26 mln tonnes (or 41%); recently, the production rate has come to more than 1.8 mln tonnes per year. The length of available active reserves makes up 15 years, and together with hard-to-recover-reserves (featuring low-permeability reservoir rocks, watercut of more than 80% and high viscosity) the length comes to 36 years. The forecasted annual volumes of oil production expressed in mln tonnes will be as follows: 1.47 mln tonnes in 2010, 1.27 mln tonnes in 2015 and 1.08 mln tonnes in 2020. The level of production of the associated gas for the year of 2002 amounted to 246 mln cu m, while in 2010 it will go down to 204 mln cu m, in 2015 - down to 177 mln cu m, and in 2020 it will be further coming down to 150 mln cu m. 7.5.2 Peat The country has more than 9000 explored peat bogs with a total area of 2.54 mln hectares within the commercial pool depth and 5.65 bln tonnes of original peat in place. The remaining in-place reserves are currently estimated at 4 bln tonnes that makes up 70% of the original reserves. Major reserves lie in the fields used for agricultural activities (1.7 bln tonnes or 39% of remaining reserves) or in those attributed to environmentally protected or conservation deposits (1.6 bln tonnes or 37%). The peat resources attributed to the reserves under development are estimated at 250 mln tonnes that makes up 5.5% of the remaining reserves. The reserves recoverable at mining are estimated at 100-130 mln tonnes. The above data indicate availability of significant peat reserves in the Republic of Belarus; however, without proper re-consideration of the commitments on utilization of the available resources, the use of peat for power generation purposes is unsubstantiated. General public is the main consumer of peat briquettes. Taking into account the available peat resources and the


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briquettes being a relatively low-priced fuel, it is advisable to maintain the briquette production at the attained level. However, because of the reserves being worked out at a number of existing briquette production factories, in the near-term outlook there can be expected a decline in the volumes of briquette production. That decline can be partially compensated through production of lump peat as well as through construction of mobile power plants with a production capacity of 5-10 thousand tonnes. To improve the utilization rate of peat deposits and thus to increase its recoverable reserves, it is necessary to develop some other practices to utilization of the worked-out deposits, for example, leaving a protective layer of 0.2-0.3 meter high in and repeated water logging of worked-out deposits. Without reconsidering the utilization commitments towards increasing the peat production for the purpose of power generation, production volumes for fuel supplies will not exceed 1.3 mln tonnes of fuel equivalent per annum. The current situation, when the cost of Russian power resources has been continuously rising up, will eventually lead to the necessity of using peat as a fuel and power resource again. 7.5.3 Oil shales Prospective and commercial reserves of oil shales (Luban and Turov deposits) are estimated at 11 bln tonnes and 3 bln tonnes, respectively. The Turov deposit is studied more extensively; within its limits there has been prospected the first mine field with reserves of 475-697 mln tonnes (1 mln tonnes of such oil shales is equal to approx. 220 ths tonnes of fuel equivalent.) The prospected oil shales have the following specification: combustion heat amounts to 1000-1510 kcal/kg, ash content – to 75%, resin yield − to 6-9.2% and sulfur - to 2.6%. The above qualitative characteristics show that the oil shales in Belarus can hardly be considered as the efficient fuel because of their high ash content and low combustion heat. They are not fit to be used direct combustion processes as they require a preliminary heat treatment with consequent release of liquid and gaseous fuels. The cost of the final fuel products (such as coke gas and shale oil) is thus 30% higher than the world prices for oil including delivery to the territory of the Republic. In addition to the above, it should be noted that black ash, which is produced in the result of thermal processing can be used neither for agricultural nor construction purposes because of carcinogenic substances detected therein as the result of incomplete recovery of organic masses. 7.5.4 Brown coal As of January 1, 2003, the three brown coal fields (attributed to Elephantine Epoch) were prospected in the south of Belarus: Zhitkovichy, Brinevskoye and Tonezhskoe fields with their reserves totaling to 151.6 mln tonnes. The two beds of the Zhitkovichy field, namely, the Severnaya occurrence (23.5 mln tonnes) and Naydinskaya occurrence (23.1 mln tonnes) have been explored in detail and prepared for commercial development; the other two, the Yuzhnaya occurrence (13.8 mln tonnes) and Kolmenskaya occurrence (8.6 mln tonnes) have been explored preliminarily. With account of prospected reserves, the open-cast mine based on the Zhitkovichy field with an annual production capacity of 2 mln tonnes (0.37 mln tonnes of fuel equivalent) is viewed as a possible construction project. The estimated cost of the first phase of construction of the open-cast with a capacity of 1.2 mln tonnes (0.22 mln tonnes of fuel equivalent) will amount to US$ 57 mln; increasing the production capacity up to 2-2.4 mln tonnes will require another US$ 25.7 mln. The coals are characterized by a low-heating value: the lowest combustion heat of the working fuel is 1500-1700 kcal/kg, humidity - 56-


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60% and average ash content varies from 17 to 23%; they can be used only as a utility and household fuel when being briquetted with peat. The coal deposits can be developed by open-cast mining, which is, however, not recommended by the Republican Environmental Commission, as the forced dipping down of ground waters can result in ecological damage such as predation of forest lands and fish ponds, reduction of farmland yields and increase in dust content over the territory will considerably exceed the benefits of such projects. 7.6 DISCUSS ONGOING INTENTION TO BUILD A FIRST NUCLEAR

POWER STATION IN BELARUS THROUGH ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL ASPECTS; Risk Assessment

Increase of prices for the Russian gas for Belarus, which is counted not in some percents but in many times, changes the results of technical-and-economic assessment of practically all projects attributed to the replacement of energy resources, using gas in the form of fuel, by the alternative ones. This fact leads to reconsideration of objective alternatives of gas power engineering by involving a wide range of experts. In such circumstances a lot of experts suggest developing nuclear-power engineering. Will it be the way out of the current complicated situation in power engineering and economy of Belarus as a whole? The nuclear-power engineering is not sustainable since nuclear fuel is limited as well as fossil fuel (coal, oil and natural gas). Moreover, radioactive waste should be isolated from the biological environment for the period of time reluctant to human imagination. There will always be military regimes, which would result in civil use of atomic energy exclusively with the purpose of nuclear bomb construction. Moreover, as it became obvious after September 11, 2001, vulnerable and super-hazardous atomic power stations represent additional targets for unprincipled and severe non-governmental organizations. Besides, for this reason the society will be divided into opponents and supporters of atomic energy usage as long as its use proceeds. In Belarus, nuclear energy is a very sensitive issue. The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 had grave consequences for the Belarusian population, which are felt up till now (see map 1 in appendix 1). There are no nuclear power plants in Belarus. Since 1996 a national moratorium prevented the building of nuclear power stations, but with an expiry date after 10 years. Now this building-ban has expired. The Government announced in December 2006 his plans to build a nuclear power plant. There are some problems concerning of building first nuclear station in Belarus:

• Belarus is financially unable to carry out such a project. Therefore, the government is looking for a company who can lend money, invest in the project and also provide technologies and equipment to build the plant. Finally, it was decided that Russian company («Rosatom») will build a nuclear power plant;


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• Fuel necessary for the operation of atomic power station called uranium is not extracted in the Republic; hence, it will still depend on the countries extracting it. Who will deliver fuel for the reactor of the Belarusian atomic power station? Usually the country, which sells the nuclear reactor, also supplies with uranium fuel. According to the above mentioned information, this is Russia. Suggested conclusion is as follows: Belarus again falls into a position of dependence of Russia. Though, the free market of fuel operates in the world, Belarus may buy it in any country. By the way, Kazakhstan ranks third in the world in terms of the quantity of reasonable assured resources of uranium. But more recently, a number of joint ventures with Russia have been established there. Such enterprises will be engaged in uranium extraction, fuel production and development of new types of low-powered nuclear stations. From one side, nuclear power in Belarus will bring energy independence to the country it will let Belarus be more independent from Russia. But from another one, Belarus has no uranium, so it would have to be imported, possibly from Russia;

• The third problem is radioactive-waste disposal. They will be partially disposed at the

territory of Belarus (this is the requirement of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): low-activity waste is stored in landfill cells at the territories of the countries, where atomic power stations operate). Storage facilities by the station as well as the new republican centre for radioactive-waste disposal instead of that one existing nowadays (near to “Sosny” Institute) will be constructed for this purpose;

• There are no educated specialists in Belarus trained to build and operate a nuclear

power plant (In last year new study program in nuclear energy was opened at Belarusian State Technical University).

Thus, another number of essentially important issues should be solved in order to take the way of nuclear-power engineering development in the republic, namely: 1. Provide adequate level of atomic power station occupational safety; 2. Overcome at least emotional and psychological consequences of the accident in Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station

Anyway, Nuclear power is one of the best sources of energy supply. It is also one of the energy sources which emit almost zero carbon. So it is helpful for the both supply of energy and environmental management. But there is a risk and problems like waste management, economic feasibility, accidents, and terrorism I mentioned above. Other group of researchers considers that the renewable power engineering should become an alternative to gas power engineering. According to the other experts, the use of wind power plants in sufficient amounts would allow refusing of the use of 3.5-5 bln cubic meters of natural gas, which is now consumed for electric power production. By the way, such 3.5 bln cubic meters of the Russian natural gas are planned to be substituted after commissioning of the first Belarusian atomic power station (newspaper «belgazeta»).


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7.7 EVALUATE PROSPECTS FOR THE USE OF ALL RENEWABLE ENERGY IN BELARUS (EXCLUDING WIND ENERGY) 7.7.1 Hydro Power

Figure 5 Small scale Hydro Power

Water-power resources. Installed capacity of 20 HPS available in the republic as of January 1, 2004 has amounted to 10.9 MW. Approximately 28 mln kWh of electric power, which is an equivalent to the replacement of imported fuel at the amount of 7.9 thousand tons of fuel equivalent is produced annually at the expense of water resources. Potential capacity of all water courses of Belarus amounts to 850 MW, including technically accessible – 520 MW, and economically feasible – 250 MW. Output of 0.8-0.9 bln kWh, and correspondingly, the replacement of 250 thousand tons of fuel equivalent is possible at the expense of water resources by the end of the forecasting period. Major directions of development of small-scale water-power engineering in the Republiс of Belarus are as follows: construction of new station, reconstruction and restoration of existing HPS. Unit capacity of hydroelectric generating sets will be within the range from 50 to 5,000 kW, whereas, the preference will be given to quickly erected hydroelectric generating sets of capsular type. Issues of HPS cascades construction on the rivers Sozh, Dnepr, Pripyat require special consideration, as possible scales of the adjacent territories flooding are limited by radioactive nuclide pollution zone. The issues of prospective negative influence of water-power engineering on local environment and ecological system of the rivers, which are under debate at the present time, considerably predetermine a sort of brake in water-power engineering development as a whole. Thus, the important ecological and social aspects of small-scale HPS application (replacement of fossil fuel and decrease of the level of greenhouse gas emissions as well as air pollution) are neglected, distinctions by consideration of influence of the objects of small-scale and large-scale water-power engineering on the environment are not considered. However, it should be noticed that, as a whole, hydroelectric power stations not always provide the guaranteed power production, being the seasonal power plants. Their productivity is usually drastically decreased in winter: snow cover and ice phenomena (ice and frazil ice), as well as summer shallow waters and rivers drying up may suspend their operation at all. Seasonality of hydroelectric power stations operation requires duplicating of energy sources, therefore small-scale HPS have mainly local value.


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7.7.2 Bio-fuels The results of biogas plants testing operation for production of biogas from stock breeding complexes wastes have confirmed the requirement of complex estimation of their efficiency since their usage only for biogas production is economically unprofitable in comparison with other types of fuel. The basic component of the effect includes the fact that it is possible to make ecologically clean high-quality organic fertilizer and, consequently, proportionally reduce power-consuming industry of mineral fertilizers without additional power consumption. Favourable application of biogas plants will allow significant improving of ecological situation nearby large farms and stock breeding complexes as well as cultivation areas, where livestock waste is now disposed. Use of biogas plants at sewerage stations of large settlements may become a fundamentally new direction, and hence it will allow reducing energy needs of these stations by 60-70 %. Potentially possible production of commercial biogas from stock breeding complexes amounts to 160 thousand tons of fuel equivalent per year, and not more than 15 thousand tons of fuel equivalent in 2005. 7.7.3 Solar energy According to meteorological data, in the Republic of Belarus 250 days per year are cloudy, 185 - partly cloudy and 30 days are sunny on the average, and the annual average input of solar energy to the earth's surface taking into account night time and cloudiness amounts to 243 cal per 1 sq. sm a day that is equivalent to 2.8 kW/h, and taking into account conversion efficiency of 12 % - 0.3 kW/h/day. For meeting power requirements of the republic in the volume of 45 bln kW/h it is required 450 sq. km. of heliostats, which corresponds to 202.5 bln US dollars by their cost of 450 US dollars /sq. m without taking into account the expenses for operation of rectifier circuits, installation and construction works, design, cables, control systems, maintenance equipment, infrastructure etc. Accountings of the listed component parts will double the abovementioned sum. Relative capital investments and prime cost of the produced electric power in many times exceed its production using other sources. Technical progress in this area will certainly lead to the decrease of expenses; however, the component of electric power production by means of solar energy will be practically inappreciable for the conditions of Belarus in the forecasting period. Helium water heating system and various helioplants for intensification of processes of drying and water heating in agriculture and other household purposes will be the basic directions of solar energy use. Replacement of about 5 thousand tons of fuel equivalent of organic fuel per year is possible at the expense of solar energy use in the forecasting period.

7.7.4 Solid domestic waste (SDW) Content of organic substance in domestic waste amounts to 40-75 %, carbon - 35-40 %, ash content - 40-70 %, combustible components in domestic waste amount to 50-88 %, heating value of SDW - 800-2,000 kkal/kg. Production of energy from SDW is carried out in several ways in the world practice: burning, active and passive gasification. Gasification is most perspective - since there are environmental problems in case of direct burning, for solving of which the investments twice exceeding the cost of burning plats themselves are required. Approximately 2.4 mln tons of solid domestic waste are cumulated in the Republic of Belarus


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annually. They are directed to dumps and two rubbish recycling plants (Minsk and Mogilyov plants), where the following wastes are annually exposed: paper – 648.6 thousand tons, food waste – 548.6, glass – 117.9, metal – 82.5, textile – 70.8, wood – 54.2, leather and rubber – 47.2, plastic – 70.8 thousand tons. Potential energy contained in solid domestic waste, originated at the territory of Belarus, is equal to 470 thousand tons of fuel equivalent. Efficiency will amount to not more than 20-25% that is equivalent to 100-120 thousand tons of fuel equivalent by their biological processing with a view of gas production. Besides, it is necessary to take into account long-term stocks of SDW available in all large cities creating stowage problems. Processing of annual communal wastes for gas production only in regional cities would allow producing of about 50 thousand tons of fuel equivalent of biogas, and up to 30 thousand tons of fuel equivalent in Minsk. The efficiency of this direction should be estimated not only by biogas output, but also by the ecological component, which will be the basic in the given issue. Specific efficiency indicators may be obtained on the basis of detailed project studies, creation and operation of experimental-industrial facility. 7.7.5 Phytomass Periodically renewable energy source - phytomass of fast-growing plants and trees may be applied as raw materials for production of liquid and gaseous fuel. Mass of plants in the amount of up to 10 tons of dry substance that is equivalent to approximately 5 tons of fuel equivalent is gathered in climatic conditions of the republic from 1 hectare of energy plantations. Efficiency of hectare may be increased in 2 times by additional agricultural practices. 5-7 tons of liquid products equivalent to oil may be produced from this amount of phytomass. Using areas of worked-out peat bog deposits for production of raw materials, where conditions for growth of agricultural crops are not available is most efficient. The area of such deposits in the republic amounts to about 180 thousand hectares, which may become sustainable, ecologically clean source of energy feedstock in the volume of 1.3 mln tons of oil equivalent per year. Use of rape oil as an energy carrier is the most perspective for the Republic of Belarus. Experience of rape cultivation in our country is available; there is also rape processing manufacture. Rape cultivation at the territories contaminated after Chernobyl accident is of especial high priority taking into account the absence of radionuclides accumulation. Certain experience in this direction is already available. It should be noted that the absence of due experience of mass use of phytomass for energy purposes does not allow making estimation of expenses and future prices for fuel at the present time, since for this purpose development of special equipment, traffic infrastructure, processing enterprises etc. is required. However, the price will amount to approximately 35$/tonns of fuel oil equivalent by the aggregatory calculations. By the expert estimations 70 – 80 thousand tons of oil equivalent may be received by 2012 at the expense of the specified source. 7.7.6 Crop production waste Use of crop production waste as a fuel is a fundamentally new direction in energy saving. Practical experience of their application as an energy carrier is cumulated in Belgium and Scandinavian countries what can’t be said about Belarus. Total potential of crop production wastes is estimated up to 1.46 mln tons of fuel equivalent per year. Decisions on efficient volumes of their burning for fuel purposes should be made by comparison of specific needs of economy on an individual basis, and this amount is estimated at the level of 40 – 50 thousand tons of fuel equivalent by the end of the forecasting period. The volume of local energy carriers is estimated in 6.75 mln tons of fuel equivalent per year at the expense of all


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components of renewable and nonconventional energy sources, heat derived energy resources, oil, associated gas and peat. 7.8 Major ways of RES development in the next years in Belarus and role of cooperation projects to promote of renewable energy using 1. Development and improvement of regulatory and legal base in the sphere of RES use, which would allow creating stimulative conditions for RES development. Law of the Republiс of Belarus “On renewable energy sources” should make a key element of the base. This law shall define the conditions for RES development stimulation, give definitions and characteristics, lay down the foundations of further development of regulatory and legal base; 2. Increasing of volumes of native RES use, which would allow passing on economically motivated RES development, creating own scientific and technical basis of given direction development, defining economic, technical and other problems requiring solutions in future; 3. Participation in execution of Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention of the United Nations on the climate change, other international agreements contributing to the increase of RES use volumes. Thus, there is a possibility of high technologies realization in the field of RES use under the scheme of early transactions of joint implementation projects, salability, assignation of quotum for greenhouse gas emissions for the purpose of further RES development and emissions decrease. In my opinion, training of modern specialists-power engineers is very important in order to make changes in power engineering towards the greater use of wind power and other renewable energy sources potential. International State Ecological University n.a. A.D. Sakharov carries out significant work in this direction. “Volma” Educational-Scientific Complex is entered into its structure. Park of renewable energy sources as well as RES demonstration research laboratory has been created on its basis. The university also actively participates in realization of international projects in the field of alternative power engineering and energy saving. It is necessary to develop cooperation and adopt experience of other European universities-partners in order to evade old Soviet system of teaching. Final result and correct decision-making of the corresponding persons depends on the fact, which training and education we give for our experts.

Carrying out of complex of works on exploration of renewable energy sources potential, including educational programs for making decisions by the responsible executives as well as technologies users is necessary for further development and implementation of nonconventional power engineering in Belarus. Despite a lot of efforts taken by the State Committee of energy efficiency and other regulatory bodies, alternative power engineering is presented in Belarus by a small number of pilot projects and technologies, most successful of which are: use of industrial wood residue for gasification with subsequent burning and heat generation; several small HPS; 4 enough powerful industrial wind power plants owned by “Ekodom” Scientific-Production Association, “Aerola” firm and International State Environmental University n.a. A.D. Sakharov; one biogas station. Application of new technologies for biomass use (fast-growing wood, industrial wood and agricultural production residue) as boiler and furnace fuels is also of high priority during the specified period. In Belarus production capacities for large-scale implementation of biomass


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gasification technologies are already created, pilot projects on development of these technologies are carried out with the assistance of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and other international organizations. Exploration of these technologies will have especially great significance for small and average cities having wood processing capacities and developed agricultural sector. Technical maintenance, role of education and cooperation of universities within the limits of international cooperation projects gives a possibility to compare programs, achievements, possibilities, potential, which may be realized with the participation in various cooperation projects. 8. FORECASTING OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES 8.1 in historical perspective Efficient use of the wind power calls for information which describes natural processes, forming the wind as a power source. Availability of such detailed information about the wind and identification of its useful-energy value provides for a possibility to evaluate both the territorial power resources and the energy potential of a specific wind power project, for example, wind-driven power plant (WDPP) or wind power station (WPS), based on a number of WDPPs. For the purpose of estimating the technical wind power resource for a certain territory and using such resource to forecast the wind power potential on some given WDPP or WPS construction site, one should follow the recommended practice on how to use the wind characteristics such as:

• annual average wind speed; • annual and diurnal variations; • recurrence rate; • distribution of wind periods and pauses of wind; • maximum wind; • background velocity (the annual average wind speed modified for the purpose of

calculations on the basis of multi-year statistics) for any forecasting period (Lavrentiev, 2007).

Calculations of the wind-power resource in any territory make use of the only numerical indicator, namely, the background velocity of the wind, which is continuously estimated in the course of longstanding statistical measurements made by the army of meteorological observers at numerous weather services, meteorological stations and specialized research centers. Other indicators are estimated on the basis of the processed statistical information for other various purposes: economic, demographic, strategic etc. The accuracy in estimation of the wind power resources is dictated by the need to develop the wind power as an industry. In most cases, dependence of the estimation accuracy on completeness of the data related to distribution of the wind power resources over the territory is governed by a zonal distribution against the annual average background wind velocities. Mapping such zonal distribution of wind speeds is always viewed as the first and major step for making a decision on whether to develop or not the wind power industry in a given territory. The quality of information may appear to be insufficient because of the inadequate informational level of physical maps used to that end. Thus, for example, a background zoning map (zonal distribution) for the annual average background wind velocities in the


36

territory of the Baltic-Black Sea Region in Eastern Europe (Fig. 6), mapped on the basis of the data accumulated by weather stations over a longstanding period of statistical observations, can provide, for all practical purposes, quite rough information on availability of wind power resources in that region.

Figure 6 Zoning map of the average annual background wind velocities in the Baltic-Black Sea Region in

Eastern Europe, mapped on the basis of the data accumulated by weather stations over a longstanding period (of 20…25 years to the end of 1998.)

Wind regimes depend on a variety of natural and local factors such as temperatures and directions of ocean currents, topography of continents and local landscapes, amount of woodland, outcomes of industrial and agricultural activities etc. Forecasting the wind power resources and developing the wind power industry at the present stage of the world power generation industry calls for availability of comprehensive information about the wind as a naturally-occurring process and power source. The general meteorological information as provided by weather stations cannot fit to the purpose of achieving the wind power targets. To that end, one needs to have specific characteristics at hand in a clearly cut numerical form; in fact, meteorological services do not need such specific characteristics (e.g. effect of terrain features on wind speeds, object exposure, changes in the wind speed at a height exceeding the height of wind indicators/meters and so on.) At present stage of development of the wind power industry, any wind-driven power plant construction project cannot be considered as being adequately supported with information if the latter is limited to assessments of the wind power resource and potential. To that end, one requires to have a clear identification of wind resources along with specifying the zones for introduction of existing types of wind-power equipment with its tariffs, technical performance and environmental indicators. Moreover, the wind power resource as a category of the national economy calls for splitting the total (cumulative) wind power resource into the

Belarus

UkraineRussia


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technical sub-level of the used windmills; economic sub-level for a specified implementation volume to be carried out in the proximate period (when scheduled, for example, for a nearest one, three or five year period); forecasting sub-level (e.g. for a 15-year period.) Sometimes, planning the development of the wind power industry requires estimation of the wind power resources to be carried out in accordance with the state administrative division, i.e. for regions and even districts. Calculations of the territorial wind power resources do not take into consideration the uneven distribution of the wind speeds over a given period. However, at the request of a client calculation of the predictable seasonal or monthly wind power production in a specified territory can be carried out. Fulfilling a client’s order is essentially limited to calculation of the economic wind power resource, insured by the wind power potential of the windmills, distributed over the territory and capable of producing a certain quantity of power within a pre-assigned time interval such as a year, season or month. When targeting a high-accuracy estimation of the wind power resources, the power industry has primarily to identify available power resources. At present, such resources comprise fossil fuels (reserves of coal, oil and gas), water and other resources, including the wind power resources. The latter call for availability of the Wind Power Atlas in hand of developers of the industry. With the help of such atlas mapped for any territory, one can carry out high-confidence calculations for estimating the wind regimes during a year, on a seasonal or monthly basis. The turn of the 20th century showed, however, no identified or pronounced need in development of hydro-meteorological services in the contexts of the agricultural, transportation and information systems available at that time. A weather station, if any in the vicinity of a WDPP, was equipped, among other things, with a primitive weathercock. At the initial stage of development of the wind power industry, visual observations of wind effects upon natural and man-made objects in the area of a would-be construction project were sufficient for making a decision on a WDPP construction project. Even unsuccessful placement of such windmills or wind-driven hydraulic or electric units could not result in any large-scale losses as the cost of those low-power plants was negligible if compared with the state-of-the-art wind power facilities as well as with modern power grids, water and air transportation systems. Nowadays, modern approaches to evaluation of the wind power have drastically changed, so has the related terminology. At present one can see that the wind power generation has become a sector of the major power industry in most of developed countries, where high-power wind stations, comprising WDPPs of about 3 MW each, are currently under way. Wind-driven power plants are being developed with a view to withstand practically any out-of-tolerance effects of the wind. Hydro-meteorological information is not merely communicated to wind power control services in an expeditious manner, but is also used for predicting adverse climatic situations (glaze ice occurrences, possible flooding or underwashing of groundworks, utilities and service lines etc.)


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9. ESTIMATION OF WORLD WIND-POWER ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT According to various estimations, the global community will double electric energy consumption by 2020 by maintaining current tendencies of civilization development. Thus it is expected that the share wind-power engineering in the total volume of the world energy resources will be increased during various periods by 20–30 % annually and by the end of 2020 will exceed the point of 10 % of the expected world energy consumption or about 3,000 TWh of electricity. Intended objective of the increase of wind-power engineering share in the world power balance may reach 10 % by 2020, if 150,000 WPP having the capacity of 1 MW will be annually installed. It exceeds the quantity of installed capacities in 1998 in 60 times. WPP having the total capacity of about 1.2 mln MW will be put into operation during this time. Sweden has been taking the chair in EU since July 1, 2009, and the problems of climate change are considered to be one of the activity directions. This problem may be partially solved by means of wider use of RES. The increase of wind-power engineering contribution to the world energy consumption will give a possibility of reducing СО2 emissions by 69 mln tons by 2005, 267 mln tons by 2010 and by 1,780 mln tons by 2020. As a whole, the reduction of СО2 emissions is expected by 1,120 mln tons for the period of 1999-2010, and by 9,530 mln tons for the period of 2010-2020. For the present moment about 160 countries (it amounts to about half of the Earth’s population) are in the stage of intensive wind-power engineering development. Situation with the estimation of other renewable energy sources development is shown on diagrams (Fig. 2) in the appendix 4.


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10. EVALUATION OF PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND POWER IN BELARUS

Figure 7 1st WPS (250 kW), Zanaroch and 2nd WPS (600 kW), Zanaroch

Wind power potential of Belarus is estimated in 220 bln kWh according to researches of local power engineers and climatologists with respect to 244 control points, including 54 meteorological stations (data for the period of 1980-2005), 190 control points at the territory of the Republic of Belarus as well as in the hundred-kilometre zone abroad. Wind power resource in terms of the regions and each district is also defined. In spite of wind variability, correct territorial distribution of wind power equipment, for example, in combination with heat power-stations and hydroelectric power stations may considerably reduce or even completely substitute energy import. Essential initial scientific and technical documentation is available for development of wind-power engineering in Belarus, namely: wind power atlas (development engineer – “Belenergosetproekt” Research Institute) and wind power databank (development engineer – “Vetromash” Scientific and Production State Enterprise). Wind power atlas includes specific points, where the imported wind power equipment may be assembled (unfortunately, home-produced wind power equipment applicable for effective utilisation is not available in Belarus). Owing to the use of wind power databank, it is possible with high integrity to estimate technical and electric power parameters of wind-driven power plants (WPP) and wind power stations (WPS) as well as estimate the energy potential of the places of wind power equipment operation. While selecting specific patterns of WPP, it is essential to take into consideration additionally a number of factors attributed to the amount of actual wind power resource in a place of direct WPP installation. Such factors include height above sea level, height of platforms elevation and their exposure, remoteness of the proposed place of WPP installation from the consumer and especially from power transmission lines etc. Either isolated WPP or WPP combined in wind power stations (WPS) may be installed at the platforms. Annual average wind speed is one of the basic indicators by the estimation of efficiency of wind energy usage. For the purpose of comparative data received according to the average annual wind speed, measured data are led to comparable conditions (conditions with open,


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even surface as well as the same height over ground equal to 10 m.). Nowadays, background annual average wind speed in various regions of the Republic of Belarus are specified, calculations for determination of technical wind power resources of Belarus at the heights of 40, 50 and 70 m over the earth's surface are made. For this purpose the territory of the republic has been divided into 4 wind zones (less than 3.5 m/s; 3.5-4.0 m/s; 4.0-4.5 m/s; more than 4.5 m/s) and 5 regions with their positioning at the height above sea level: 100-150 m; 150-200 m; 200-250 m; 250-300 m; 300-350 m. It has allowed forecasting wind power situation at the territory of the Republic of Belarus with sufficient reliability for initial projecting of wind-power engineering implementation.

Figure 8 Map of background zoning of average annual wind speed at the territory of Belarus according to initial data of hydrometeorological stations and meteorological stations during long-term statistical

observations in terms of zonal and regional indicators on the assumption of the ground relief characteristics

(20...25 years by the end of 1998)


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Table 4Technically prospective wind power resources, estimated on the basis of relief characteristics with reference to the height of 50 m

over the earth’s surface in the places of prospective WPP installation Characteristics Regions and their height, m above sea level, class of platforms Total

100-150 I

150-200 II

200-250 III

250-300 IV

300-350 V

1. Total area of the region, sq. km.

91,471 99,421 13,907 2,283 208 207,560

2. Area of prospective WPP installation, sq. km.

18,348 19,884 2,781 457 42 41,512

3. Average annual background wind speed at the height of 10 m, m/s

3.8 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3

4. Maximum annual average wind speed taking into account local conditions, m/s: At the height of 10 m At the height of 50 m

4.5 6.0

4.8 6.4

5.4 7.0

5.8 7.4

6.2 7.8

5. Total capacity of WPP, MW

24,770 34,010 6,730 1,190 132 66,852

6. Annual WPP performance based on 3,000 hours of operation per year, bln kWh

74.3 102.3 20.2 3.6 0.4 200.8

The republic may cover up to 50% of energy need having used only 10% of the territory suitable for wind-power engineering. 1,840 platforms are found out at this territory, where more than 8 thousand WPP (having capacity of 250 kW and more) with potentially prospective energy potential of 1,600 MW and annual electric power output of 3.3 bln kWh may be installed. However, in the near future technically prospective and economically feasible usage of wind potential shall not exceed 5% from the installed capacity of traditional electric power stations of the electric power system, i.e. it may amount to not more than 300-350 MW or 720-840 mln kWh. Detected platforms are mainly ranges of hills having the height from 20 to 80 m, where the background wind speed may reach 5-8 m/s; and it is possible to arrange from 3 to 20 WPP with nominal operation wind speed of 12-15 m/s on each of them. What regards other territories, the detailed inspection of WPP construction site should precede to each implementation. Non-compliance with the terms under inspection outcomes may result in making considerable errors in power production estimation. Power production in case of WPP construction at the territory of the regions with annual average speed of 7.0 m/s and more will amount to more than 20.0 bln kWh per year. This potential may be most effectively developed in case of WPP connection to the utility line. Particularly significant factors by using WPP include production cost of electric energy put out as well as plant cost recovery. Major factors of the cost recovery are:


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• WPP energy efficiency in the place of its installation, i.e. electric power output; • operational reliability; • cost of WPP establishment, including operating expenses.

Terms of cost recovery regarding wind-driven power plants are comparable to the cost recovery of small hydroelectric power stations, steam-gas and oil-gas power stations and considerably lower than the cost recovery of coal, nuclear and diesel-driven stations. Upon the expiration of cost recovery terms, operating expenses of WPP are immeasurably lower than the expenses of power stations operating on the sources of liquid, gaseous, solid and nuclear fuel as they do not need fossil energy sources deliveries.

Annual average wind speed exceeds 5 m/s at the quarter part of the territory suitable for wind-power engineering implementation by the annual average wind speed at the territory of the republic equal to 4.3 m/s. Such speed corresponds to the international requirements in terms of commercial practicability indicators of wind power equipment implementation. Sampling survey of the zones of wind power equipment implementation at the territory of the Republic of Belarus has shown that the annual average wind speed may reach 6-7 m/s by the correct choice of wind assembly installation site (on the hills, open territory, shore fronts of water assets etc.). Usage of wind-driven power plants at the territories of the zones with annual average background speed of more than 5 m/s is mostly effective: elevated areas of the major part of the north and northwest of Belarus, central zone of Minsk Region, including contiguous areas from the west part, Vitebsk highland. Owing to rather high broken ground and hilliness of the territory of Belarus, the range of wind assemblies’ usage having characteristics on estimated wind speed vnom is strictly regulated by graduation levels of 8; 9; 10 m/s. The guaranteed output of recoverable wind power with 7 % of the territory will amount to 20.5 bln kWh. However, the usage of zones with hyperactivity of wind guarantees WPP power production up to 6.5-7.5 bln kWh with cost recovery within 5-7 years.

Table 5 Wind power potential of the territory of Belarus by the usage of WPP having the height of mounting blocks of 10; 20; 30; 40 m with distribution of ground relief characteristics and averaged

index of wind speed increase Кv=1.25

Wind zone

Territory of the zone, thousand sq. km.

Energy production 1 sq. km.,kWh

Max from the zone territory, mln mW/h

Utilised from the zone territory, mln mW/h 100% 7% 1% till

2010 II 39.7 2,267 90.0 78.1 5.5 0.78 III 21.9 3,995 37.5 31.5 5.7 0.82 IV 15.7 7,051 110.7 64.0 4.5 0.64 Total 77.3 288.2 223.6 15.7 2.24 Wind power potential of the territory of Belarus by the usage of WPP having the height of mounting blocks of 10; 20; 30; 40 m is shown in Table 5. Nowadays, wind power potential available in Belarus is practically not used. Opposing sides in terms of wind-power engineering development in the republic have two conventional


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arguments. Firstly, wind power potential sufficient for its industrial use is not available in the republic. Secondly, wind power plants (WPP) and wind power stations (WPS) should necessarily be reserved in full volume by thermal power stations (TPS). Both arguments are in many respects based on misjudgements; moreover, such misjudgements are considerably significant and fundamental. As a result of long-term researches conducted by A.I. Gnoev, engineer of “Belenergosetproekt” Research Institute under the supervision of Doctor of Science E.V.Shсhur, perspective zones for WPP and WPS construction have been found at the territory of the republic. The overall wind power potential estimated by the results of conducted researches considerably exceeds the needs of the republic in electric energy. Data of hydrometeorological services for extended period of time (-25 years) have been used by the calculations. Similar researches were conducted by “Vetromash” Specialized Organization (executive manager Doctor of Science N.A. Lavrentyev). The organization has received similar results. Certainly, the full realization of available wind power potential is impossible, however even 10 % of its usage would allow to escape from all available problems connected with electric power production at the expense of native energy resources. There are a lot of sceptics who put in doubt the availability of such wind power potential in the republic. Indeed, there are no sea coasts and wind constantly blowing with high speed in Belarus. However, we have a lot of hills with the height of 250-300 m. Average wind speed at the level of wind-wheel axis of 7.5-8 m/s sufficient enough for industrial electric power production may be guaranteed by installation of masts on them having the height of 50-60 m. It means that the number of hours of WPP nominal capacity usage will be within the range of 2,000-2,400 h/year. Similar result has been received at the second year of operation of German WPP having the capacity of 600 kW, mounted near “Zanaroch” village, Minsk Region. Thus, it should be noticed that the platform it had been installed at, is far from being the best one. Results could have been much better, if it had been chosen especially for this purpose. Nevertheless, even this example allows discussing prospectivity of wind-power engineering development in the republic with certain optimism.

It should be noticed that WPP are used in Germany not only at sea coasts. Recently, new WPP of the so-called continental arrangement have been specially developed and commercially produced. It is obvious that they may be successfully applied in our republic as there are a lot of available, unoccupied hills here.

N.A. Lavrentyev made extended calculations of the wind power potential for Minsk Region in 2005. Platforms with annual average wind speed of not less than 6 m/s at the height of 10 m from the tower attached location (so-called background speed) were selected. At least one WPP having nominal capacity of 1 MW may be installed or WPS from two-three WPP having the overall capacity up to 2.0 MW may be constructed on each of selected platforms depending on their sizes. WPP construction is efficient in 10 districts out of 22 administrative districts of Minsk Region, five of which have most favourable conditions: Minsk, Logoysk, Volozhinsk, Dzerzhinsk and Molodechno Districts. Thus, it is efficient to construct 9 WPP having the overall capacity of ~9 MW (average capacity of one WPP is equal to 1 MW as specified above) in Minsk District. Correspondingly, 63 WPP - in Molodechno District, 168 - in Logoysk District, 219 – in Dzerzhinsk District and 246 –in Volozhinsk District. On the whole, it is efficient to construct 705 WPP having the overall capacity of 705 MW in five specified districts. The guaranteed number of hours of nominal capacity usage shall be not less than 2,100 h/year regarding selected platforms. It meant that the annual WPP electric power output, recommended for installation, will amount to-1.5 bln kWh per year, that is


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approximately 15 % from overall annual electric power consumption in Minsk Region. Vitebsk and Grodno Regions have equally favourable conditions (see wind potential for Vitebsk Regions in appendix 3). 10.1 Prediction of wind power development for Belarus The Government of Belarus adopted a program to achieve in 2012 in the republic about 25% of the total production of electricity and thermal energy through the use of local fuels and alternative energy sources. One of the key sources of projected growth should be Fuel wood. The attempt to assess a possible energy scenarios for Belarus made a group of NGOs «Belaya Rus», a Danish non-governmental organization OVE and Belarusian Branch of international Academy of Ecology of the project on the transition of Belarus to promote sustainable development based on an assessment of national capacity development of alternative energy.


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Table 6 Expected annual volumes of wind power potential usage for electric power production

Years Overall installed capacity of wind

power plants, MW

Electric power output, mln kWh/year

Total volume substitution,

thousand tonns of fuel equivalent

2003 1.1 1.43 0.40 2004 1.2 2.15 0.60 2005 1.2 2.15 0.60 2006 1.7 3.04 0.85 2007 2.2 3.94 1.10 2008 3.7 6.62 1.85 2009 3.7 6.62 1.85 2010 3.7 6.62 1.85 2011 5.2 9.31 2.61 2012 5.2 9.31 2.61

According to the project of wind-power engineering development program in the republic presented to the government, wind power plants of Belarus may contribute only maximum 15 MW to the power engineering of the country by 2014. Total installed capacity of wind-driven power plants in 2003 amounted to 1.1 MW (see the table 6). Operation experience of 2 WPP “EkoDom” Scientific-Production Association shows that they are economically profitable and the term of their cost recovery amounts to 7-8 years – the same as in Germany. Legal base and system of supportive measures contributing to development of significant direction in the usage of native natural resources including renewable energy resources for power supply needs are not available in the Republic of Belarus. There is also no program of small-scale power generation and renewable power engineering development, which could comprise all aspects of involving various renewable power sources to the power balance. Stages of work providing creating electric power plants on the basis of some energy sources available in some programs, have an isolated character and practically fail to include electric power plants implementation. The resolution of the Council of Ministers No.400 as of 1997 on the double tariff for non-conventional energy is actually not carried out.

For obtaining objective estimation regarding the possibility of full wind potential withdrawal (by means of new WPP), it is required to complete the cycle of experimental investigations as well as define necessary investments for development of the abovementioned direction. Existing methods of transformation of wind power into electric energy by means of traditional rotary-vane wind-driven power plants (WPP) under the conditions available in Belarus, are economically unjustified according to some scientists, firstly, due to high starting wind speed (4-5 m/s), high nominal speed (8-15 m/s) and small annual production under the conditions of weak continental wind, characteristic for Belarus – 3-5 m/s, secondly, cost of WPP amounts to 1,000-1,500 USA dollars/kW of the installed capacity. Complex of works conducted in recent years in the republic allows making more optimistic prognosis regarding the use of wind power for electric power production. For these purposes new WPP are recommended by a group of scientists. They are based on Magnus effect, wherein not rotary-vane but rotatory flattened cones of the special form (rotors), carrying capacity of which many times (in 6-8 times) exceeds carrying capacity in vanes, are used as aerodynamic elements. According to


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the scientists, their major advantage consists of the ability to operate effectively by the wind speed, characteristic for continental conditions of Belarus.

Taking into account the necessity of WPP parallel work with power supply system, the scheme becomes much more complicated and, naturally, the expenses for WPP creation and operation will considerably increase. Thus, regarding the expenses, it is necessary to consider the necessity of creation and maintenance of power reserve at other types of power stations.

10.2 Describe characteristics of wind speed on the territory of Belarus The speed of the wind depends on the altitude above sea level. At low altitudes the speed is lower because of the Earth surface friction, thus with the growing altitude the speed is growing exponentially. The speed grows with altitude at the maximum rate in the lowest 100 meter atmospheric layer. At an altitude of 100 meters the wind speed is almost 2,5 times higher than it is at the Earth surface. In the next 100 meter layer the wind speed grows only by 10-15%. Further on the velocity gradient is slowing down (see table 7).

Table 7 Change of wind speed with altitude Height,

m Jan. Feb. March April May June July Аug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average

annual

12 3.4 3.1 2,9 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 2,9 100 8.3 7.6 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.1 5,9 6.8 7.0 7.7 8.3 7.1 200 9.5 8.6 8.1 8.0 7.1 6.8 6,9 6.8 8.0 8.2 8,9 9.6 8.0 300 10.4 9.2 8.6 8.4 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.1 8.5 8,9 9.8 10.4 8.6 500 11.4 9,9 9.0 9.1 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.3 8.8 9.5 10.7 11.6 9.2 1000 11.8 10.3 9.3 9.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 9.0 9.7 11.2 12.0 9.4

As the average wind velocity at the Earth surface in Belarus is relatively low (2,9 m/s) it is preferable to place WDPs there on the 20 to 80 m hill ridges with the background wind speed reaching ~ 5-8 m/s. These are hills in the northern and northwest regions of Belarus, the central area of Minsk Region, including adjacent western territories, Vitebsk Hills (see map 2 in appendix 1). The wind potential of a territory is described by average annual wind speed. It is defined as arithmetic average of all the speeds during the year. Average wind can be calculated for other periods as well, for example monthly, daily, hourly. There is a cubic relationship between energy of wind and wind speed. Double wind speed provides 8 times more energy. Thus average wind speed of 5 m/s can provide roughly 2 times more energy than wind with average speed of 4 m/s. Modern WDPs – are the machines that transform the wind speed into mechanical energy of the spinning windwheel and then into electric power. At present two basic configurations of wind turbines are used: horizontal-axis turbines and vertical-axis turbines. Although both of them have roughly the same efficiency output, the first type of configuration is more widespread. The power of these WDPs can range from hundreds of watts to several megawatts. Previously, wind wheels used in wind turbines were of so called “active” type (carrousel type, Savonius etc) that used wind pressing force (in contrast to the above-mentioned wind wheels using lifting force) But such turbines have a very low efficiency output (less than 20 %) and thus are not currently used to produce power.


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Figure 9a The main factor – wind speed

Often the representatives of the committees on environment protection put claims regarding the fact that wind-power plant at the top of the hill is considered to be a great invasion into the landscape and consequently it is necessary to choose places located in the lowland. As a rule, these places have limited wind speed and installation of wind power plants on them would have serious consequences for the use of wind energy.

If the wind speed at the top is annually 6.5 m/s on the average, it amounts to 4.5 m/s in the lowland, which reduces capacity as if only by 30 %. Only non-professional may think in this manner.

In fact, the capacity decreases more than by 65 %. Therefore the use of wind energy by such arrangement of the plants would be inefficient. If the wind-driven generators were installed in the lowlands (wind speed is 30 % lower), it would be required to triple the number of plats in order to receive the equal profit. It leads to the inefficient use of resources (see Fig. 10a&10b).

Figure 9b The main factor – wind speed


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10.3 Assess the economic aspects of wind power development I do not examine profoundly the issues of economic feasibility of wind-power engineering use in Master’s Thesis. The price for electric power produced by WPP, being a complex indicator of wind-power engineering efficiency, has decreased approximately in five times and proceeds keeping this tendency (see fig. 10) for the last 20 years. According to the experts from Germany, Denmark, USA, the cost for electric power produced by WPP, may be reduced to 2 cents for 1 kW/h in the following years.

The price for electric power produced by WPP in 2005 has amounted to 2.5-3 cents for 1 kW/h. It may be counted that in future the price for one kilowatt-hour will essentially decrease and will be comparable to the cost of electric power produced by TPS and hydro-electric power station (HPS) by the large-scale construction of wind-driven electric power stations. The following fact serves as the confirmation of this argument. It says that the WPS design is being constantly improved: aerodynamics and electric parameters are being improved; mechanical losses etc. are being decreased.

Динамика изменения цен на ветровую энергию (цент/кВт ч) в мире

05

101520253035

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Годы

Цена,

цент/кВ

т ч

Figure 10 The dynamic of price change on wind energy (cent/кWh)

10.4 Complex approach in using wind power in Belarus Since the wind speed in Belarus changes during the year, it makes sense to install complex power stations Hybrid power systems The use of a hybrid power system presupposes the use of WDP together with other power supplies (diesel generators, solar modules, micro hydropower stations etc.) These energy sources complement WDPs in order to provide uninterrupted power supply in the absence of wind.

2009

Pric

e, c

ent/k

Wh


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The scheme of Energy security of Belarus and achievement of some Environmental.

Quality Objectives for Belarus1 has been developed by Aleh Kliatsko The burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of observed global climate change. The development of wind power, an integrated approach of its use, should play, in my opinion, a key role in removing existing barriers to widespread adoption of climate-neutral technologies.

1 Reduced Climate Impact Clean Air A Protective Ozone Layer Natural Acidification Only A Non-Toxic Environment

→ The focus of the study

Energy preparedness of Belarus and

achievement of some Env. Quality Objectives in

Belarus1

Wind Power

Bio-fuels

Energy from

Waste

Solar Power

Hydro Power

Energy Efficient Building

Energy Saving


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10.4.1 Wind-Diesel Systems A wind-diesel system consists of a WDP and a diesel-electric system (DES) with optimally matched power. A diesel generator is generally used with a WDP when the latter is used for the economy of diesel fuel the cost of which inclusive of delivery charges can be very high. Correlation of the power of the system components depends on the pattern of load generation and wind availability. The mode in which a WDP and a DES operate together is considered ineffective in terms of WDP usage. The share of WDP load in the system should not exceed 15-20% of the diesel-generator capacity. Such operation modes can be used for fuel economy in high capacity hybrid systems. The use of the mode with separate functioning of WDPs and DESs allows to raise the share of load for the WDP to 50-60% and higher. But in this case the system inevitably becomes more complicated on account of necessity to introduce a control system, converting equipment and rechargeable batteries which accumulate power produced by the WDP in good wind conditions for power supply in low or no wind weather. If possible, energy is produced by WDP and the batteries are being constantly charged. In low or no wind weather conditions, when the battery charge becomes lower than necessary, a diesel generator starts automatically (or is started by hand) to provide power supply. This mode drastically reduces the number of starts of the diesel generator thus leading to lower service costs and better fuel economy. As a rule, such hybrid systems are used for providing uninterrupted power supply to consumers with combined with good fuel economy. Big hybrid power stations should power local residential communities. With careful servicing and sufficient wind resources in the area where the systems are installed, the use of modern wind-diesel systems can be very economically viable. 10.4.2 Wind solar systems It is possible to obtain electric power by transforming solar radiation with solarvoltaic array (SA). Despite the relatively high current cost of SAs, their combined use with WDPs in some cases can be efficient. Since there is a high probability of windy weather in winter, and the maximum effect can achieved with SAs in summer, the combination of these technologies is beneficial for end users. 10.4.3 Use of WDPs with micro hydropowerstations WDPs can be used in combination with hydropower stations that have a water reservoir. In windy weather such systems use the WDPs’ power excess to pump water from tail water to head water. In low wind weather power is produced by hydropower station. Such combinations are effective with small amounts of hydropower. 10.5 Compare advantages and disadvantages of using Wind-Power Engineering in Belarus Thus, it is necessary to pay attention to advantages and disadvantages of WPP usage by the development of wind power use direction.


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Advantages of wind power equipment use: 1. Ecological cleanliness by electric power production. Renewable wind power excludes the consumption of organic and nuclear fuel, which contaminate the environment by hazardous emissions negatively influencing fauna and flora. 2. Condemnation of land under WPP construction is insignificant. Wind turbine are arranged singly or by groups (WPS wind farms, at the distance of 25-30 m from each other), i.e. there is enough space for agricultural works or cattle grazing at the arrangement area. Disadvantages of wind power equipment use: 1. WPP capacity changes with the change of wind speed cubed. These changes may not be co-ordinated with energy requirements during the given period of time. For effective utilisation of produced energy, it is directed to the power supply system or accumulated in other kind of energy (heat energy, air compression etc.). This disadvantage may be excluded, if the wind power is used in combination with other energy sources. 2. Noise pollution. However the arrangement of WPP at the certain distance excludes a possibility of noise pollution. Experience of many European states shows that certain WPP designs are already installed in the suburban area of rather large cities, situated near habitation facilities without interfering average life activity. Opposing sides of wind power plants construction take into consideration the aesthetic landscape change. 3. Disrupt bird life (What is the role of technology and sustainable approach to decrease this negative effect?) 4. The investment costs are very high. Many years are needed to reach return on investments. 11. ENERGY SAVING IN ALL SPHERES OF LIFE Energy saving — comprehensive process, which covers different spheres of human activity. As a matter of fact, it is a way of life of people, society, developing certain psychological algorithm of behaviour. Development of economy in Belarus as a sovereign state is impossible without development of national idea, principle of careful and economical use of available energy and raw materials resources, use of experience accumulated in this area by other countries. This is the major field of activity for today, resource of industrial production competitive growth, way of economy integration in the international market. Energy saving is a process, by which the requirement in energy resources and energy carriers per unit of final useful effect is reduced. This it not only saving of energy, but also providing conditions for most effective use. Energy saving is inseparably attributed to energy efficiency, in particular, effective use of fuel and energy resources, which is considered to be the use of all kinds of energy by economically feasible, progressive ways by the presence of existing level of technique and technologies development and compliance with the laws. Up-to-date energy saving is based on three main principles:


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• firstly, not hard energy saving, but its rational use, including search and development of new nonconventional sources of energy saving; • secondly, country-wide use of both domestic and industrial energy accounting devices as well as devices of electric and heat energy consumption regulation; • thirdly, implementation of advanced technologies contributing to the reduction of power production. From 2001 to 2005, energy intensity of GDP in Belarus has decreased by 23.5 %. The proportion of use of wood fuel in the fuel and energy balance of the country increased by 27 % over this period, natural gas - by 19 %. Consumption of fuel oil decreased by 45 %, coal by 65 %. The use of local energy resources for five years has raised to 4.6 million tons of fuel equivalent. One of the important particularities of energy problem in Belarus is its capability to satisfy only 15-18 % of energy needs by own fuel and energy resources (FER), i.e. it refers to the countries with energy deficiency. Belarus consumes almost 10 times more energy for the unit of gross domestic product than developed countries. Only losses of heat energy at the centralized networks of heating supply and hot water supply amounts to 45% - 60%. Poor quality of constructive, administrative and residential constructions increases these losses by 15–20%. That means the consumer, receiving only 20–25% of heat energy pays to the state 100% of expenses for heating supply centralization. A number of economic measures undertaken in recent years has allowed stimulating implementation of quickly compensative energy saving activities. However, share of small energy consuming production in the structure of gross domestic product has not practically increased.

As a whole it can be stated that the great unrealized potential of energy saving in communal household sphere, power engineering, industry and agriculture is still available. Nowadays it is estimated by the level of 30 % from the total FER consumption that is an equivalent of 10.2 mln tons of oil equivalent per year.

Energy saving should be considered as an independent energy source, comparable to usual increase of energy generation capacities by their scales and economic value. It will contribute to dramatic decrease of power capacity in the industry of Belarus (Volokhov, Ganzha). Owing to energy saving, fuel deficiency in the republic may be reduced. Besides, energy saving stimulates scientific and technical progress and technological re-equipment of manufacture, opens new high technology directions of economy development, creates additional working places. Energy saving policy raises sustainable relation to the resources, promotes increasing of manufacture culture, inculcates new manner of behaviour – manner of behaviour as an owner. The law of the Republic of Belarus «On energy saving» establishes responsibility for infringement of the law on energy saving.


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The law establishes means of economic stimulation of energy saving, including privileges in the form of subsidies, donations in the procedure specified by the laws of the Republiс of Belarus in terms of users and manufacturers of fuel and energy resources, carrying out activities on energy saving. The law defines basic directions of international cooperation in the sphere of energy saving:

• participation of the Republic of Belarus in realization of international projects in the sphere of energy saving;

• providing energy efficiency indices, specified by regulatory documents on standardization of the Republic of Belarus in conformity with international standards requirements.


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12. RESULTS:

12.1 Scenarios: According to the Fig 2 (see the Appendix 4) one can forecast the wind-power engineering development also for Belarus. In this way this is a scenario with a material effect of conventional energy sources. In my master’s work I have developed two look-ahead scenarios for the wind-power engineering development also in Belarus by 2020. I have been developing the scenarios with due account of an opinion currently prevailing (best-selling) in Belarus which is stating that Belarus has no available sufficient resources for the wind-power engineering developing. Scenario 1. «Unsustainable»: the power industry development in Belarus will be unsustainable until 2020, which means that power stations will continue to be operated on conventional exhaustible energy sources. However, the transition from expensive import of Russian energy products to the use of own fuel types (brown coal, peat, wood, common burning of waste, etc) or coal probably from Ukraine in order to diversify countries-importers of energy products. In its turn this will lead to a situation when CO2 emissions resulting in burning fossil fuels will increase dramatically. By the end of predicted period the share of power generated by the constructed nuclear power station in the total volume of the electric-power production will grow up. In the near future technologically feasible and cost-effective use of wind energy potential will not exceed 5% of the installed capacity of conventional power stations of the total energy system, i.е. may be equal to a t least 300-350 МW or 720-840 mln kW/h. In order to objectively assess a possibility for retiring complete wind energy potential (by means of new wind-driven power plants) it is required to complete the cycle of experimental investigations and specify investments required for developing this direction.

Reference behavior pattern (RBP) for a Scenario 1.


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Scenario 2 seems to be more promising. I called it «Middle to sustainable power engineering». The implementation of this Scenario will depend on the fact to what degree and to what extent will Belarus be involved in various cooperation projects promoting the transfer of technologies in this field, as well as encouraging own investigations in this field giving preference to improving the efficiency of the wind-power engineering, but not to other exhaustible energy sources. However, this Scenario will still bear elements of Scenario 1. The role of international cooperation within the framework of various cooperation projects makes it possible to compare programs, achievements, and capabilities, potential. It is believed that the Scenario by 2050 will account a most efficient solution directed to provide all spheres of human life with power and heat based on the principles of sustainable development. I called this Scenario Sustainable Power Engineering. I have been deliberately investigating this issue (the Scenario of the wind-power engineering developing for Belarus) on a global level, since Belarus should follow the way of its power industry development while reconciling its situation course with common tendencies of the development of the world power generation sector, specifically in developed countries of the world. Also I’d like to state that in the background of predicting the world power generation sector development some countries as Denmark, Germany are prevailing. Great gains in the wind-power engineering development are demonstrated by China.

How to reduce uncertainties? Every scenario has predictable and unpredictable sides. The use of renewable energy scenarios in 2020 are built based on both sides, however, being such a vulnerable topic it relies more on the latter side. Even the predictable facts have a great amount of uncertainties. A solution can be to analyze and continuously monitor the data and adjust every scenario to a closer reality. This means that every year scenarios must be analyzed, verified and corrected with the new existing data. This would make the difference between the prediction and the reality shorter, but it would not be completely accurate. This can be very expensive and it can be seen as a lot of time; all the advance and technology approaches made on one scenario can be completely change in one year and it will represent a great lost. However, there can be a distinction between data; different types of uncertainties require different types of actualization. This way a lot of things can be control. If this is planned carefully it can be a good solution.

Are the scenarios reliable? The developed scenarios can be described as a process paradigm. They are based both in predictable and unpredictable facts. However, being a subject that is so related with humans, its behaviour, inventions, environmental consciousness, growth, consumption patterns and so on these scenarios are more related to unpredictable factors. Furthermore, even the predictable facts have a great amount of uncertainties that can’t be control. For all the above, these scenarios can represent a vague picture of how the future of renewable energy will look like, however, they are not reliable. They have to be constantly analyzed and actualized in order to get more accurate results


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13. DISCUSSION The first thing to be noted is that in Belarus the wind-power engineering development capability has not been reasonably investigated. Neither there exists a single scenario of the wind-power engineering development until 2020. There are existing separate figures until 2014. Hopefully my investigations in this work shall promote growing interest to investigating the prediction of the development of the wind-power engineering in Belarus until 2030, and until 2050 by a growing number of scholars, both in universities of Belarus and in the Belarusian Academy of Sciences. In my mind, the mankind cannot be deprived of heat or electric power by reason of energy supply shortage. An alternative energy source is sure to be found which will replace oil, gas, coal (i.e. fossil fuels) or due to the reduction of gas and oil their price in the world market will grow and thus other energy sources which formerly were inferior in the price factor as compared to conventional energy sources will become more competitive. In this work I am discoursing of prospects of developing the wind-power engineering in Belarus. To this paper I also have added two publications which have been written during my study at International Master’s program at Sustainable Technology at KTH. 14. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. There should be developed a mechanism of promoting affinity of renewable energy sources in Belarus; 2. Promotion to create a strong renewable energy management policy in Belarus;

3. The use of coal is going to increase in Belarus. There will be increased import coal (probably from Ukraine) instead Russian gas. However, coal it is the most polluting energy resource that highly contributes to the increasing of CO2 and thus to global climate change. So many countries make efforts to minimize or avoid coal combustion in power industry. Another way of eliminating environmental impact from coal combustion it is to use different internal and external cleaner production technologies and to increase the efficiency of coal-fires power stations.


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CONCLUSIONS 1. After whole evaluation concluded that the wind-power engineering development will depend on the systematic condition of the Belarusian power industry in general and the country’s economic development level and thus the process of the wind-power engineering development should not be considered and investigated apart from the condition and development of the Belarusian power industry in general : →

• Dependent on imported resources • Dependent on non renewable resources • Bad management • Old technology • Monopolization of market • Buracracy • Lack of R&D • Low awareness in public sector how to use and save energy

2. In my master’s work I have refuted statement in respect of unpromising efficiency of the wind-power engineering development in Belarus; Hence, in Belarus the wind-power engineering is profitable to be developed while duly accounting definite terms and conditions;

• In my master’s work I suggest to use the wind-power engineering within the framework of a multipronged attack on the problem, i.e. the wind-power engineering will be used jointly with other renewable and exhaustible energy sources. In their turn, in my opinion, also other renewable energy sources will promote such development.

In this manner, the analysis has shown that the country has available sufficient renewable energy sources to be used with the wind-power engineering within the framework of a multipronged attack on the problem that will be a perfect solution in the wind-power supply and meeting the challenge of a number of environmental problems; • The importance of such integrated use of the wind-power engineering should be

apprehended in 2 aspects: promoting procuring energy preparedness and solving a number of environmental problems which have been ever-increasing in Belarus from year to year;

• There is required a regular territorial distribution of wind-power engineering facilities

in the territory of Belarus. Belarus has no mountains, but it has sufficiently many hills 250-300 m high above sea level, i.e. with account of a tower height (50-60 m) it is quite possible to reach wind wheel spindle yearly mean wind speed equal to 7,5-8 m/sec.

3. Within the period when gas for Belarus was very cheap the wind-power engineering was unattractive and economically inefficient. The attractiveness and profitability of developing the wind-power engineering will be improving as gas price is growing. Hence, as the organic fuel is replaced by other fuel types Belarus will score great advantages among which – the reduction of dependence on oil and gas price fluctuation in the world market.


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4. A major task for the future of Belarus will consist in diversifying countries-importers of energy products and developing renewable energy sources, specifically the wind-power engineering. Likewise the issues of arranging a scenario of the wind-power engineering development may not be considered through the same on a global level, in the long global term. 5. The aspiration to energy independence may lead to a situation when developing countries, Belarus inclusive, are using resources available, but which are not environment- friendly. 6. A wind-diesel power plant will be more sustainable than a power station operating only on coal or mazout with less CO2 emissions due to operation of a wind-driven power plant. Such diesel power plant will be automatically switched on only in the case when wind speed is insufficient to generate power. 7. In my work I am not suggesting to refuse outright using oil and gas by 2020 (this is not possible), but power consumption restructuring will make Belarus insensitive to probable fluctuations in the world oil business environment. Oil and gas will cease to be a single fuel in any economy sector. 8. We also must consider that energy consumption problem is not only focused on energy production process but on energy utilization and it efficient use. So decreasing of energy consumption is also one of the efficient ways of solving energy problems. 9. I’ve investigated the issues of building an atomic power plant in Belarus, related problems and consequences. In my work I am not taking up the position that nuclear-power engineering should not be developed. However, the issue of the nuclear-power engineering has been assuming a serious and contradictory nature. Since Belarus never had its own a nuclear power station, but extremely suffered as a result of Chernobyl disaster which has been affecting health of communities and will stay for a long time. In my judgment, still more extensive investigations should be conducted in this field. Energy problems and issues of appreciation of Russian energy products should not accelerate the construction process without detailed study of all issues concerned. 10. In this manner the participation of Belarus in various European cooperation projects will assist it to become a full-fledged member of European community and solve its problems through adopting experience, transfer technology gained by its European partners. The forecasting will assist the Belarusian power industry to get ready to live without oil both in moral and technical aspects. My investigations to scenarios of the wind-power engineering development are touching upon issues of climate change and rising of prices for conventional energy sources. Nevertheless, the energy issue is an important issue for all countries over the world and alternatives have to be found in a perspective of global and Sustainable Development.


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FUTURE RESEARCH AND ACTIVITY

• Issues of Sustainable Urban Development • Energy Use and Climate Change • Modelling


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SUMMARY OF APPENDED PAPERS Paper I - Kliatsko. A. 2008. Complex approach in using wind power engineering in the Republic of Belarus. Collection of articles, p. 246 (in English); Since the wind speed in Belarus changes during the year, it makes sense to install complex power stations or hybrid power systems (HPS). The use of a hybrid power system presupposes the use of WDP together with other power supplies (diesel generators, solar modules, micro hydropower stations etc.) These energy sources complement WDPs in order to provide uninterrupted power supply in the absence of wind. Wind-diesel systems A wind-diesel system consists of a WDP and a diesel-electric system (DES) with optimally matched power. A diesel generator is generally used with a WDP when the latter is used for the economy of diesel fuel the cost of which inclusive of delivery charges can be very high. Correlation of the power of the system components depends on the pattern of load generation and wind availability. The mode in which a WDP and a DES operate together is considered ineffective in terms of WDP usage. The share of WDP load in the system should not exceed 15-20% of the diesel-generator capacity. Such operation modes can be used for fuel economy in high capacity hybrid systems. The use of the mode with separate functioning of WDPs and DESs allows to raise the share of load for the WDP to 50-60% and higher. But in this case the system inevitably becomes more complicated on account of necessity to introduce a control system, converting equipment and rechargeable batteries which accumulate power produced by the WDP in good wind conditions for power supply in low or no wind weather. If possible, energy is produced by WDP and the batteries are being constantly charged. In low or no wind weather conditions, when the battery charge becomes lower than necessary, a diesel generator starts automatically (or is started by hand) to provide power supply. This mode drastically reduces the number of starts of the diesel generator thus leading to lower service costs and better fuel economy. As a rule, such hybrid systems are used for providing uninterrupted power supply to consumers with combined with good fuel economy. Big hybrid power stations should power local residential communities. With careful servicing and sufficient wind resources in the area where the systems are installed, the use of modern wind-diesel systems can be very economically viable. Wind solar systems. It is possible to obtain electric power by transforming solar radiation with solar voltaic array (SA). Despite the relatively high current cost of SAs, their combined use with WDPs in some cases can be efficient. Since there is a high probability of windy weather in winter, and the maximum effect can achieved with SAs in summer, the combination of these technologies is beneficial for end users. Use of WDPs with micro hydropower stations. WDPs can be used in combination with hydropower stations that have a water reservoir. In windy weather such systems use the WDPs’ power excess to pump water from tail water to head water. In low wind weather power is produced by hydropower station. Such combinations are effective with small amounts of hydropower. WDPs connected to the grid. WDPs connected to the grid get active and reactive power for start, work and control over the system. It means that the power generated by the WDP goes directly to the grid. Most of the modern WDPs start generating energy when wind speed is about 4 m/s. The drive current from the grid is used to synchronize the generator of the WDP. Thus if the WDP is disconnected from the grid it cannot generate power. WDPs connected with the grid are installed on the territories with good wind energy resources used to produce power that would later be sold to energy companies.


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Paper II - Kliatsko. A. 2009. Energy efficient building development in Belarus within a European context. Collection of articles, p. 305 (in English); With the development of the world economy, the situation of energy crisis and environmental impact is serious. During the past years, crude oil soared to new records one after another. The high energy consumption and climate change due to globe warming are being big challenges to human being’s development. Mostly of primary energy is from fossil fuel, is consumed by nonindustrial buildings. In recent years, security of energy supply is becoming more serious in the Republic of Belarus. It demands immediate action to develop Renewable Energy and Energy Efficient Buildings to reduce consumption. Many developed countries have been leading the forefront in the energy efficient buildings’ development. Technical measures to increase building’s energy saving performance have been developed for a long time. Performance Rating Systems and Tools for Sustainable Building Design have been well developed in many countries since early 1990s. Integrated methods for sustainable community planning were also developed. The purpose of this research is to look at Belarusian problems with the add of industrialized countries’ experiences. Thus case study is the first step of the research. Many cases of energy efficient buildings have been developed in European countries (including Sweden), as well as many methods and theories for energy efficiency. By case study the research will try to analyze and compare the advantages and shortcomings of them as the bases for discussion of the applicability to Belarus’s situation. The research will be compare Hammarby Sjöstad and Eco-village, two representative cases of sustainable housing development in Sweden, with the situation in Belarus: Minsk-city project and Belarusian Hi-Tech Park. By the year 2020, a vast construction project “Minsk-City” will have been accomplished in Minsk. The “Minsk-city” project presupposes erection of a residential area comprising 35-38 thousand inhabitants (about 850 thousand sq. m) and a high-rise business centre, in which office, commercial and hotel space will be situated. The complex will be embellished with a 70-80 storied skyscraper. Furthermore, the project involves allocation of foreign embassies and consulates, a community center, hotels, shopping recreation centers. The construction of “Minsk-city” will start not sooner than in 2009. By this time, the territory of “Minsk-1” airport amounting to 300 ha will have been cleared for this project (at the present day, it is the very center of the capital of Belarus), and the aircraft repair plant, which is situated there, will be transferred outside the city limits. All the costs are already taken into account in the amount of the investments declared for the project. The building of the airport itself is planned to be preserved as an architectural monument. Apart from the main issue of “Energy Efficient Building Development in Belarus” is also very interesting the following question: “Is it possible to establish the Industrial Ecology model in “Minsk-city” project like the one created in Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm?” Belarusian Hi-Tech Park location has many advantages. It is located in the capital of Belarus - Minsk - scientific, economic, political and cultural centre of Belarus.


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Hi-Tech Park is situated near the Academic City of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus and occupies the territory of 50 hectares. The territory of the Academic City is close to Minsk main highway and the city ring road, which makes the site easily accessible via public and private transport. The construction of the Park of High Technologies was launched in 2008. The HTP project includes: general layout, development scheme; office blocks; hotel; exhibition center; parking area; trade centre; housing estate. Total site area is 52 hectares (520,000 sq m). This Project could be interested from energy efficient building development point of view too.


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REFERENCE:

1. Yermashkevich V.N. “Renewable Energy Sources of Belarus: Forecast, Mechanisms of Implementation” 2003 2. Kabirov R. Renewable energy. The Economist .2002 3. Loginov V.F. “The Climate of Belarus” Minsk. 1996 4. Sheleg L. “Belarus: Energy Saving Policy Today and Tomorrow.” 7 Dnej, 2001 5. Ekologija i Zhizn’ (Ecology and Life) 2003, 4 6. Lennart Nilsson, Per Olof Persson, Lars Ryden, Siarhei Darozhka, Audrone Zaliauskiene, Cleaner Production: Technologies and Tools for Resource Efficient Production. Book 2 in a series on Environmental Management, 2007 Dreborg K-H. 1996. Essence of backcasting. Futures, Vol. 28, No. 9, pp. 813-828. Banister D., Stead D., Steen P., Dreborg K-H, Åkerman J., Nijkamp P., and Schleicher-Tappeser R.2000. European Transport Policy and Sustainable Mobility. London, Spoon Press Robinsson. 1990. Futures and glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, October. Höjer, M. 1997. Telematics in Urban Transport - A Delphi Study Using Scenarios. Stockholm: KTH. Boulding, E. and Boulding, K.E. 1995. The Future - Images and Processes. London: SAGE publications. Metz, B., Mol, A., Andersson, M., Berk, M.M., van Minnen, J.G. and Tuinstra, W. 2003. «Climate options for the long term: possible strategies.» In Issues in International Climate Policy: Theory and Policy, edited by E.C. van Ierland, J. Gupta, and M.T.J. Kok. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. International Energy Agency, Key World Energy www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2005/fs_resources.pdf V.S.Lutsko. Long Term Environmental Consequences of Chernobyl Catastrophe and Relevant Rehabilitation Programs, State Secretary, Ministry for Emergencies, http://chernobyl.undp.org/english/docs/ukrainianstatement.pdf Martinot, Eric; Dienst, Carmen; Weiliang Liu; Qimin, Chai. Renewable energy futures: targets, scenarios and pathways. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2007 Van Notten, Philip. Chapter 4 Scenario development: a typology of approaches. 2005. Mulder, Karel. From forecasting to Backcasting: developing shared future visions for Sustainable Development. 2007


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SITE Country report: Belarus Interview: Shirokov, Lavrentiev, Kundas


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APPENDIX 1

Map 1 Effect to Belarus of Chernobil Disaster

Source: The map (2) of the physical surface of Republic of Belarus


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APPENDIX 2

Wind Energy potential in Belarus

Region Used area, thousand кm2

Produced Energy, mld. кVч Max

(full WER) Utilized wind energy resource

100% 7% on 10 years

1% on 3 years

TWER1 TWER1 ЭВЭР 2 Brest 14,9 41,36 33,88 2,37 0,34 Vitebsk 12,5 75,65 53,78 2,73 0,53 Gomel 12,4 51,75 38,47 2,69 0,39 Grodno 11,2 39,24 29,84 2,09 0,30 Mogilev 12,4 29,99 23,65 1,70 0,24 Minsk 13,9 50,19 43,83 3,07 0,44 Total 77,4 288,08 223,45 14,65 2,24 Примечания: 1 Technical Wind Energy Resource (TWER); 2 Economic Wind Energy Resource (EWER)

APPENDIX 3

Figure 1 Wind Energy potential for north-west part of Belarus


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APPENDIX 4

Figure 2 World Marketed Energy use by energy Type 2020-2025, (Source: EIA 2002)

TRITA-IM 2010:08 ISSN 1402-7615 Industrial Ecology, Royal Institute of Technology www.ima.kth.se

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