SCEC Annual Meeting - ITR 09/17/02 1

Numerical Modeling Using Finite Difference Techniques

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Modeling of Wave Propagation and Ground Motion

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M7.3 1992 LandersM6.7 1994 Northridge

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When: 28 June 1992Where: Mojave DesertDamage: $56 million Deaths: 1Injured: >400

1992 Landers

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1994 Northridge

When: 17 Jan 1994Where: San Fernando ValleyDamage: $20 billion Deaths: 57Injured: >9000

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Objective:

Mitigate loss of life and property in future large events

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Subsurface Model

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M7.5 San Andreasfrom south-east

Fault-parallel

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M7.5 San Andreasfrom north-west

Fault-parallel

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3D/1D peak velocity ratios

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Validation: 1994 Northridge

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• Wavefield Separation

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Modeling of Earthquake Rupture Dynamics

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Dynamic Rupture From Trial-and-Error Finite-Difference Modeling

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Inverted (Trial-and-

Error) Dynamic Radiation

Versus Data

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Modeling of Stress Transfer/Triggering

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Static

Coulomb Failure Stresses

f

among others,

Das & Scholz, 1981

Harris et al., 1991

Stein, 1999

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However:

f does not explain all observations

e.g.,

• 1943 North Anatolian Fault event

• More aftershocks in direction of rupture

propagation (for example, 1992 Landers)

• Sometimes aftershocks in the stress shadow

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Dynamic

Coulomb Failure Stresses

f(t)

Kilb et al., 2002

Kilb, 2003

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Illustration of f(t)

North Anatolian Fault 1944 Event

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Components of f(t)

s(t)

n(t)

f(t)

f(t) peak[f(t)]

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Effect of Rupture Direction

Toward

the West

Bi-lateral

Toward

the East

peak[f(t)]f(t)

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Effect of Rupture Velocity

Sub-shear

Super-shear

f(t) peakf(t)]

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North-Anatolian Fault, Turkey

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West-ward propagating series of events on the North Anatolian Fault 1939-1999

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North Anatolian Fault Sequence

1939-1999

300 km

N

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Seismic Exploration

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