SCEAssessment of Renewable Energy Resources using the

Western Renewable Energy Zones (WREZ) Model

January 2011

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How to use this Presentation

This presentation is designed to provide a succinct review of results while allowing users to access more guidance if necessary

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Guide

Guide

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Organization of Material in this Presentation

1. Introduction

2. Renewable Energy Demand

3. Identification of Most Economic WREZ Resources

4. Comparison to Local Resources

5. Maps of Top WREZ Resource Areas for SCE

6. Slide by Slide Guide

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Guide

IntroductionIntroduction

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Overview of WREZ Initiative The WREZ initiative has identified “hubs” composed of environmentally preferred, high

quality renewable resources sufficient to justify building new high-voltage transmission in the Western Interconnection

WREZ resource data was developed by the Zone Identification and Technology Assessment (ZITA) workgroup. A discussion of the resources and zone identification process may be found at: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46877.pdf (8 MB)

A Generation and Transmission Model (GTM) was developed

Transparent and user-friendly model for load-serving entities (LSEs), regulators and others to evaluate the delivered cost of energy coming from renewable energy hubs

Focus is on renewable resources that may be more distant from loads, but local resources can be added by users for comparison

Available at:http://www.westgov.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&catid=102%3Ainitiatives&id=220%3Awrez-transmission-model-page&Itemid=81

Both ZITA and GTM were stakeholder-led processes with consensus from western utilities and industry stakeholders

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Guide

WREZ and the Generation and Transmission Model Can Assist with Key Questions

Which resources might be economically attractive for meeting renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets in the West?

What new transmission is needed to access those resources?

Which LSEs may be potential partners for coordinated procurement and transmission?

How do local options compare to more distant resources?

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Purpose of this presentation is to address these key questions for SCE using “base case” (default) assumptions for the GTM.

Guide

Important Considerations

The WREZ GTM was run with a common set of assumptions across all the Western Interconnection

For example, all incremental transmission, 50 percent line utilization

The model is available to download and customize as users would like

The results provide a consistent basis to compare utilities, but they are likely different from the utilities’ current resource priorities.

Focus is on potential resources. No evaluation of existing resources.

The model was run independently for 25 utilities. The same potential resources were modeled for all utilities. Multiple utilities could identify the same resource as being economic for their portfolio. Utilities may compete or collaborate for these better resources. This slide indicates resource overlap.

Projections were made to 2030 with high RPS targets. This is to encourage long range thinking.

The intent is for this information to stimulate conversation about long range resource planning

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Guide

Renewable Energy DemandRenewable Energy Demand

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Modeled Renewable Energy Demand (GWh/yr)

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Notes –Load forecast values obtained from survey performed by LBNL.

Guide

RenewableDemand Scenario

Load in Goal Year

Gross Renewables

Demand

Existing Resources*

Net Renewables

Demand

33% by 2020 90,126 29,742 Not included 29,742

Total Demand in 2030 98,054 - Not included -

*Generation from existing plants and plants currently under construction. Not included at this time.

Identification of Most Economic WREZ Resources

Identification of Most Economic WREZ Resources

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Busbar Cost

Transmission Cost

Integration Cost

+

+

Energy Value

Capacity Value

-

-

Adjusted Delivered Cost

GTM Resource Cost DeterminationAdjusted Delivered Cost of Energy Resource cost information provided by

model:

Busbar cost: “raw” cost of generation

Delivered cost: cost to transmit energy to load zone

Adjusted delivered cost: the value of a resource to a load zone, taking into consideration the energy and capacity benefit delivered by the resource

Additional information on specific approach and assumptions in accompanying guide slides

GuideD

elivered Cost

WREZ Resources

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Guide

The Zone Identification and Technical Analysis (ZITA) workgroup identified potential renewable resource hubs

Hubs are meant to represent the highest quality resources in the Western Interconnect

The size of the hub is proportional to its energy potential (GWh/yr)

Each hub can have multiple resources depending on what is available

Hub names provide the following information on state and relative location in the state. Examples:

NV_WE: Nevada West

BC_WC: British Columbia West Central

NM_EA: New Mexico East

AB_EA

AB_EC

AB_NO

AB_SE

AZ_NE

AZ_NW

AZ_SO

AZ_WE

BC_CT

BC_EA

BC_NE

BC_NO

BC_NW

BC_SE

BC_SO

BC_SW

BC_WC

BC_WE

BJ_NO

BJ_SO

CA_CT

CA_EA

CA_NE

CA_SO

CA_WE

CO_EA

CO_NE

CO_SECO_SO

ID_EA

ID_SW

MT_CT

MT_NEMT_NW

NM_CT NM_EA

NM_SENM_SONM_SW

NV_EA

NV_NO

NV_SW

NV_WE

OR_NE

OR_SO

OR_WE

TX

UT_WE

WA_SO

WY_EAWY_EC

WY_NO

WY_SO

AZ_NEAZ_NEAZ_NWAZ_NW

BJ_NOBJ_NO

BJ_SOBJ_SO

CA_CTCA_CT

CA_EACA_EA

CA_NECA_NE

CA_SOCA_SO

CA_WECA_WE

ID_EAID_EA

ID_SWID_SW

NV_NONV_NO

NV_SWNV_SW

NV_WENV_WE

OR_SOOR_SO

OR_WEOR_WE

UT_WEUT_WE

WY_ECWY_EC

Most Economic WREZResources

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Resource Key

HydroWindBiomass Solar PVSolar ThermalGeothermal

HydroWindBiomass Solar PVSolar ThermalGeothermal

HydroWindBiomass Solar PVSolar ThermalGeothermal

HydroWindBiomass Solar PVSolar ThermalGeothermal

Note: Color represents the dominant resource in the Hub.

The GTM model was run with “base case” assumptions to identify the most economic resources to meet SCE’s renewable demand

These are shown as the colored circles at right (“Hubs”)

Additional detail provided in the following slides

Guide

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2020

RPS

Goa

l

Tota

l Dem

and

in 2

030

-10

10

30

50

70

90

Adju

sted

Del

iver

ed C

ost o

f Ene

rgy,

$/M

Wh

Cumulative Annual Generation Potential, TWh

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

0 500 1000 1500 1750-10

90

190

290

Supply Curves of All WREZ Resources and Top 100 TWh of Resources*

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Guide

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All WREZ in WECC

Most economic resources, detailed on next slide * Supply curves do not include local, non-WREZ resources

Most Economic Resources Identified to Meet Renewables Demand: Individual Resources, Sorted by Cost

Guide

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Note: Under cumulative, the generation column (GWh/yr) is the running total of the resources identified as most economic; the next column shows the  corresponding percentage of 2030 load.

Rank Type LocationCapacity,

MWResource, GWh/yr GWh/yr

% of 2030 load

Busbar Cost

Tx Cost with

LossesIntegra-tion Cost

Energy Value

Capacity Value Total

1 Wind Class 7 California West 104.3 0.4 0 <1% $60 $6 $5 ($72) ($11) ($12)2 Wind Class 7 California Central 2.8 11.1 12 <1% $61 $8 $5 ($71) ($10) ($7)3 Wind Class 6 California West 329.5 1,212.1 1,224 1% $66 $6 $5 ($72) ($11) ($6)4 Wind Class 5 California West 565.6 1,932.3 3,156 3% $71 $6 $5 ($72) ($11) ($1)5 Wind Class 6 California Central 12.6 46.4 3,202 3% $67 $8 $5 ($71) ($10) ($1)6 Wind Class 7 California East 0.2 0.6 3,203 3% $61 $15 $5 ($73) ($7) $17 Wind Class 7 California South 12.4 50.0 3,253 3% $61 $14 $5 ($70) ($9) $18 Wind Class 6 California Northeast 0.5 1.8 3,255 3% $67 $13 $5 ($73) ($9) $39 Wind Class 5 California Central 26.0 88.8 3,344 3% $72 $8 $5 ($71) ($10) $410 Wind Class 4 California West 824.4 2,599.8 5,943 6% $77 $6 $5 ($72) ($11) $511 Wind Class 6 California East 1.0 3.7 5,947 6% $67 $15 $5 ($73) ($7) $712 Wind Class 7 Nevada Southwest 0.1 0.2 5,947 6% $61 $24 $5 ($72) ($11) $713 Wind Class 6 California South 59.8 219.8 6,167 6% $67 $14 $5 ($70) ($9) $714 Wind Class 5 California Northeast 1.7 5.8 6,173 6% $72 $13 $5 ($73) ($9) $815 Geothermal Utah West 81.0 638.6 6,811 7% $72 $28 $0 ($73) ($18) $1016 Wind Class 7 Baja North 157.4 634.3 7,446 8% $65 $19 $5 ($70) ($9) $1017 Wind Class 4 California Central 207.0 652.8 8,099 8% $78 $8 $5 ($71) ($10) $1018 Hydro California South 1.6 7.7 8,106 8% $87 $14 $0 ($72) ($18) $1119 Wind Class 6 Arizona Northwest 0.6 2.0 8,108 8% $67 $20 $5 ($72) ($8) $1220 Wind Class 5 California East 3.4 11.4 8,120 8% $72 $15 $5 ($73) ($7) $1221 Wind Class 5 California South 56.6 193.2 8,313 8% $72 $14 $5 ($70) ($9) $1222 Wind Class 6 Nevada Southwest 2.3 8.3 8,321 8% $67 $24 $5 ($72) ($11) $1323 Wind Class 7 Nevada West 1.2 4.6 8,326 8% $61 $32 $5 ($72) ($12) $1424 Wind Class 4 California Northeast 74.3 234.2 8,560 9% $78 $13 $5 ($73) ($9) $1425 Wind Class 7 Utah West 3.1 12.5 8,572 9% $62 $28 $5 ($71) ($9) $15

Generation Adjusted Delivered Cost of Energy $/MWhCumulative*

Most Economic Resources Identified to Meet Renewables Demand: Individual Resources, Sorted by Cost

Guide

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Note: Under cumulative, the generation column (GWh/yr) is the running total of the resources identified as most economic; the next column shows the  corresponding percentage of 2030 load.

Rank Type LocationCapacity,

MWResource, GWh/yr GWh/yr

% of 2030 load

Busbar Cost

Tx Cost with

LossesIntegra-tion Cost

Energy Value

Capacity Value Total

26 Wind Class 3 California West 1,261.3 3,535.5 12,108 12% $87 $6 $5 ($72) ($11) $1527 Wind Class 6 Baja North 371.3 1,365.9 13,474 14% $71 $19 $5 ($70) ($9) $1628 Wind Class 5 Arizona Northwest 1.2 3.9 13,478 14% $72 $21 $5 ($72) ($8) $1729 Wind Class 4 California East 19.7 62.1 13,540 14% $78 $15 $5 ($73) ($7) $1830 Wind Class 5 Nevada Southwest 3.5 12.0 13,552 14% $72 $24 $5 ($72) ($11) $1831 Wind Class 4 California South 138.5 436.8 13,989 14% $78 $14 $5 ($70) ($9) $1832 Wind Class 7 Baja South 30.0 120.7 14,109 14% $65 $28 $5 ($70) ($9) $1833 Geothermal Nevada North 202.5 1,596.5 15,706 16% $77 $32 $0 ($73) ($18) $1934 Wind Class 6 Nevada West 4.5 16.4 15,722 16% $67 $33 $5 ($72) ($13) $2035 Wind Class 7 Arizona Northeast 1.2 4.8 15,727 16% $61 $35 $5 ($72) ($10) $2036 Wind Class 3 California Central 1,162.0 3,257.2 18,984 19% $88 $8 $5 ($71) ($10) $2037 Wind Class 6 Utah West 7.8 28.7 19,013 19% $68 $28 $5 ($71) ($9) $2138 Geothermal California South 232.0 1,625.9 20,639 21% $88 $14 $0 ($71) ($9) $2239 Wind Class 5 Baja North 397.2 1,356.8 21,996 22% $77 $19 $5 ($70) ($9) $2240 Geothermal California South 1,170.0 9,224.3 31,220 32% $98 $14 $0 ($73) ($18) $2341 Wind Class 4 Arizona Northwest 7.0 21.9 31,242 32% $78 $21 $5 ($72) ($8) $2342 Wind Class 3 California Northeast 488.7 1,369.8 32,612 33% $88 $13 $5 ($73) ($9) $2443 Wind Class 4 Nevada Southwest 15.5 48.9 32,660 33% $78 $24 $5 ($72) ($11) $2444 Wind Class 6 Baja South 224.2 824.9 33,485 34% $71 $28 $5 ($70) ($9) $2545 Hydro Nevada North 2.0 9.5 33,495 34% $84 $32 $0 ($72) ($19) $2546 Wind Class 5 Nevada West 6.2 21.2 33,516 34% $72 $33 $5 ($73) ($13) $2547 Wind Class 6 Arizona Northeast 14.1 51.7 33,568 34% $67 $35 $5 ($72) ($10) $2648 Wind Class 5 Utah West 18.4 62.9 33,631 34% $74 $28 $5 ($71) ($9) $2649 Wind Class 3 California East 212.7 596.1 34,227 35% $88 $15 $5 ($73) ($7) $2850 Wind Class 3 California South 477.2 1,337.7 35,564 36% $88 $14 $5 ($70) ($9) $28

Generation Adjusted Delivered Cost of Energy $/MWhCumulative*

Most Economic Resources Identified to Meet Renewables Demand: Individual Resources, Sorted by Cost

Guide

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Note: Under cumulative, the generation column (GWh/yr) is the running total of the resources identified as most economic; the next column shows the  corresponding percentage of 2030 load.

Rank Type LocationCapacity,

MWResource, GWh/yr GWh/yr

% of 2030 load

Busbar Cost

Tx Cost with

LossesIntegra-tion Cost

Energy Value

Capacity Value Total

51 Wind Class 4 Baja North 757 2,388 37,953 39% $83 $19 $5 ($70) ($28) $952 Wind Class 7 Oregon South 6 25 37,977 39% $62 $46 $5 ($73) ($29) $1153 Biomass California West 105 782 38,759 40% $115 $6 $0 ($73) ($30) $1854 Wind Class 5 Baja South 384 1,313 40,073 41% $76 $28 $5 ($70) ($30) $955 Wind Class 5 Arizona Northeast 42 143 40,216 41% $72 $36 $5 ($72) ($31) $1056 Wind Class 4 Nevada West 27 85 40,301 41% $78 $33 $5 ($73) ($31) $1357 Solar California West 506 1,146 41,447 42% $130 $6 $3 ($76) ($32) $3058 Solar California West 1,325 3,001 44,448 45% $130 $6 $3 ($76) ($32) $3059 Solar California West 1,219 2,761 47,208 48% $130 $6 $3 ($76) ($32) $3060 Hydro Idaho Southwest 8 44 47,253 48% $69 $53 $0 ($72) ($33) $1761 Wind Class 4 Utah West 133 420 47,672 49% $80 $29 $5 ($71) ($33) $962 Geothermal Utah West 214 1,503 49,175 50% $88 $29 $0 ($72) ($33) $1263 Wind Class 3 Arizona Northwest 209 586 49,761 51% $88 $21 $5 ($72) ($33) $864 Wind Class 3 Nevada Southwest 212 594 50,355 51% $88 $25 $5 ($72) ($34) $1165 Solar California West 506 1,341 51,696 53% $134 $6 $3 ($76) ($35) $3266 Solar California West 1,325 3,512 55,208 56% $134 $6 $3 ($76) ($35) $3267 Solar California West 1,219 3,231 58,438 60% $134 $6 $3 ($76) ($35) $3268 Wind Class 6 Oregon South 26 95 58,534 60% $68 $47 $5 ($73) ($35) $1169 Wind Class 4 Baja South 614 1,936 60,470 62% $82 $28 $5 ($70) ($37) $970 Geothermal Oregon South 45 355 60,825 62% $81 $47 $0 ($73) ($37) $1871 Wind Class 4 Arizona Northeast 136 430 61,255 62% $78 $36 $5 ($72) ($37) $1072 Wind Class 7 Idaho East 2 8 61,263 62% $61 $54 $5 ($72) ($38) $1073 Solar California Central 483 1,073 62,335 64% $132 $9 $3 ($76) ($39) $2974 Solar California Central 910 2,021 64,356 66% $132 $9 $3 ($76) ($39) $2975 Solar California Central 866 1,923 66,280 68% $132 $9 $3 ($76) ($39) $29

Generation Adjusted Delivered Cost of Energy $/MWhCumulative*

Most Economic Resources Identified to Meet Renewables Demand: Summary by Area, Sorted by Cost

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Click here for Maps of Each Area

*This column shows the Adjusted Delivered Cost of Energy weighted by the energy share of each resource in the resource area (e.g. share of wind Class 7 in California West). Only resources identified as most economic are included in the calculation.

Guide

Area Biomass Solar Geothermal HydroWind

Class 3Wind Class

4Wind Class

5+Total Capacity,

MW

Total Generation,

GWh/yr

Energy Weighted Adjusted

Cost ($/MWh)*

Baja North 0 757 926 1684 5746 22

California Northeast 489 74 2 565 1612 22California West 105 7319 1261 824 999 10509 29148 26Nevada North 400 2 402 2987 29California South 3405 1402 2 477 139 129 5553 20828 30Baja South 614 639 1253 4195 32Idaho Southwest 8 0 9 45 33Arizona Northwest 209 7 2 218 614 33Nevada Southwest 212 16 6 233 663 33California Central 4518 1162 207 41 5928 14878 35Arizona Northeast 136 57 194 630 35Utah West 295 1516 133 29 1974 6916 37Oregon South 45 55 100 553 37Nevada West 132 160 27 12 331 1501 40Idaho East 45 5 50 373 41California East 2681 213 20 5 2918 6716 42Oregon West 10 10 42 44Wyoming East Central 467 467 1880 45

Capacity by Resource Type, MW

Resource Area PG

&E

SM

UD

LA

DW

P

SC

E

SD

GE

IID

AP

S

SR

P

TE

P

NV

En

erg

y

PN

M

El

Pas

o

Tri

-Sta

te G

&T

CS

U

Xce

l (C

O)

Pac

ific

orp

(U

T)

Pac

ific

orp

(O

R)

Pac

ific

orp

(W

A)

PG

E

EW

EB

Avi

sta

PS

E

SC

L

Tac

om

a

Idah

o P

ow

er

BC

Hyd

ro

No

rth

wes

tern

Utilities That May be Interested in Similar Resource AreasGreater Potential Interest Indicated by Filled Circles

GuidePercentage of Hub Energy Identified as “Most Economic” for a Given Utility

>90%

66.7 - 90%

33.3 - 66.7%

10 - 33.3%

>0% - <10%

Arizona Northeast

Arizona Northwest

Arizona South

Arizona West

California Central

California East

California Northeast

California South

California West

Colorado East

Colorado Northeast

Colorado Southeast

Colorado South

Idaho East

Idaho Southwest

Montana Central

Montana Northeast

Montana Northwest

New Mexico Central

New Mexico East

New Mexico Southeast

New Mexico South

New Mexico Southwest

Nevada East

Nevada North

Nevada Southwest

Nevada West

Utilities That May be Interested in Similar Resource AreasGreater Potential Interest Indicated by Filled Circles (cont.)

Guide

Resource Area PG

&E

SM

UD

LA

DW

P

SC

E

SD

GE

IID

AP

S

SR

P

TE

P

NV

En

erg

y

PN

M

El

Pas

o

Tri

-Sta

te G

&T

CS

U

Xce

l (C

O)

Pac

ific

orp

(U

T)

Pac

ific

orp

(O

R)

Pac

ific

orp

(W

A)

PG

E

EW

EB

Avi

sta

PS

E

SC

L

Tac

om

a

Idah

o P

ow

er

BC

Hyd

ro

No

rth

wes

tern

Percentage of Hub Energy Identified as “Most Economic” for a Given Utility

>90%

66.7 - 90%

33.3 - 66.7%

10 - 33.3%

<10%

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Oregon Northeast

Oregon South

Oregon West

Texas

Utah West

Washington South

Wyoming East

Wyoming East Central

Wyoming North

Wyoming South

Alberta East

Alberta East Central

Alberta North

Alberta Southeast

British Columbia Central

British Columbia East

British Columbia Northeast

British Columbia North

British Columbia Northwest

Birtish Columbia Southeast

Birtish Columbia South

British Columbia Southwest

British Columbia West Central

British Columbia West

Baja North

Baja South

>90%

66.7 - 90%

33.3 - 66.7%

10 - 33.3%

>0% - <10%

Annual Average Hourly Profiles in WREZ With Most Generation From That Resource

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Guide

California West Wind 36% Avg

California South Geothermal 88% Avg

California West Solar 26% Avg

Energy Price $72/MWh Avg

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

En

erg

y P

ric

e ($

/MW

h)

Ca

pa

cit

y F

ac

tor (

%)

Hour Beginning

Comparison to Local ResourcesComparison to Local Resources

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Potential Resources in SCE Service Territory

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tialSize (kV)

230-499

500

DC

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LSE Service Areas

Guide

Legend Symbols not to Scale

Potential Wind and Solar PV Resources in SCE Territory

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Guide

See guide for important notes and assumptions

Local Wind and Solar PV Resources Potential Capacity (MW)

WindClass 3 1,215Class 4 393Class 5+ 323

Solar PV1% of service territory 52,037

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2020

RPS

Goa

l

Tota

l Dem

and

in 2

030

-10

10

30

50

70

90

Adju

sted

Del

iver

ed C

ost o

f Ene

rgy,

$/M

Wh

Cumulative Annual Generation Potential, TWh

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass

HydroGeneric Comparative Local Resource

Busbar Cost

Tx Cost Int. CostEnergy Value

Capacity Value

Total Without Tx Cost

Solar PV $131 Varies $2.5 ($76) ($30) $28Wind Class 3 $87 Varies $5.0 ($72) ($11) $9Wind Class 4 $77 Varies $5.0 ($72) ($11) ($1)Wind Class 5 $71 Varies $5.0 ($72) ($11) ($6)Wind Class 6 $66 Varies $5.0 ($72) ($11) ($12)Wind Class 7 - Varies $5.0 - - -

Adjusted Delivered Cost of Energy, $/MWh

Economic Analysis of Local Resources in Service Territory

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Guide

WREZ Resources (Previous Supply Curve)Economics of Local Resources

Maps of Top WREZ Resource Areas for SCE

Maps of Top WREZ Resource Areas for SCE

Page - 26

Nevada North Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Idaho Power Company

PacifiCorp.

Sierra Pacific Power Company

Sierra Pacific Power Company

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Guide

Nevada West Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Sierra Pacific Power Company

PG&E

PG&E

SCE

SCE

Nevada Power Company

Sierra Pacific Power Company

LADWP

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Guide

Utah West Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Pacifi-Corp

PacifiCorp

PacifiCorp

PacifiCorp

PacifiCorp

PacifiCorp Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Guide

Nevada Southwest Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Sierra Pacific Power Company

SCE

SCE

SCE

PG&E

SCE

SCE

Pacifi-Corp

Pacifi-Corp

NevadaPower Co.

APS

LADWP

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Guide

California West Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

LADWP

PG&E

SDGE

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCESCE Imperial

Irrigation District

SCETransmission Lines

Exist-ing

Founda-tional

Poten-tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

CA Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in vicinity• Tehachapi• Fairmont • Kramer

Guide

California Central Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

PG&E

LADWP

SCE

LADWP

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

APS

SCE

SCE

SDGE

Imperial

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service AreasCA Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in vicinity• Pisgah• Victorville• Twentynine Palms• San Bernardino Lucerne• Barstow

Guide

California Northeast Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

SDGE

SCE SCE

SCE

SCE

Southern California Edison (SCE)

Imperial

Arizona Public Service Co.

Arizona Public Service Co. (APS)

APS

APS

APS

Nevada Power

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

CA Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in vicinity• Iron Mountain

Guide

California East Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Arizona Public Service Co.

APS

APS

APS

San Diego Gas &

Electric

SCE

SCE

SCE

SCE

APS

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

CA Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in vicinity• Riverside East

Guide

California South Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

San Diego Gas &

Electric

SCE

SCE

SCE

Imperial Irrigation District

Arizona Public Service Co. (APS)APS

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

CA Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in vicinity• San Diego South• Imperial North• Imperial East• Imperial South

Guide

Baja North Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

San Diego Gas &

Electric

Imperial

APS

APS

APSSCE

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Guide

Baja South Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Guide

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Arizona Northwest Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

Imperial

SCE

Arizona Public Service Co.

SCE

SCE

SCE

Nevada Power

Guide

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Arizona Northeast Potential Resources

0 50 100 150 200MILES

SRP

Arizona Public Service Co

Guide

Transmission LinesExist-

ingFounda-

tionalPoten-

tial

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

LSE Service Areas

Slide-by-Slide Guide

Page - 40

Guide: Renewables Demand

Renewables demand is generally determined for two scenarios

RPS goals in 2020

33% renewables in 2030*

The gross renewables demand is calculated by the renewable percentage times the relevant load forecast (based on public information)

If existing and under-construction renewables are quantified, these are subtracted from the gross demand to determine the net renewables demand

Net renewables demand is used as a “mile-marker” to indicate the rough renewables needed for the utility

The 33% by 2030 scenario is used as the basis for the analysis in the presentation (tables, charts, etc.)

Page - 41

Guide

This slide shows a table which roughly indicates how much renewable energy the utility might be interested in under future scenarios.

*For California utilities, 2030 total demand is shown

Guide: GTM Resource Cost Determination

Busbar Cost – levelized cost of energy considering capital cost, O&M, fuel costs, heat rate (biomass), incentives, net plant output, gen-tie costs, capacity factor, economic life, discount rate, inflation, and financing costs.

Detailed ZITA resource assumptions: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46877.pdf (8MB)

Transmission Cost – levelized cost of delivering the energy from the resource to load area including losses. For the purposes of this model, all resources are assumed to require new transmission, costs for which are estimated based on a 500 kV single-circuit ac line operating at 50% utilization

Integration Cost – Indirect operation cost to the transmission system to accommodate the generation from the project into the grid. Starting point assumptions are provided in the model, but a user can change the integration cost for each technology.

Wind - $5/MWh, solar thermal - $2.50/MWh, solar photovoltaic - $2.50/MWh, all others - $0/MWh

Energy Value – represents the value of a resource’s hourly output to the load zone – i.e. the load zone’s marginal cost. Energy values were developed by Black & Veatch based on 2015 market forecast ($2009) using the ProMod production cost model.

Capacity Value – capacity value represents the fractional avoided carrying costs of simple cycle combustion turbine. A capacity credit fraction is calculated for each project based on its operation during peak periods (top 10% of load hours).

Page - 42

Guide

Click here for full description of methodology and assumptions: http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/wrez/gtm/documents/GTM%20V%202.0%20Method%20Assumptions.pdf

AB_EA

AB_EC

AB_NO

AB_SE

AZ_NE

AZ_NW

AZ_SO

AZ_WE

BC_CT

BC_EA

BC_NE

BC_NO

BC_NW

BC_SE

BC_SO

BC_SW

BC_WC

BC_WE

BJ_NO

BJ_SO

CA_CT

CA_EA

CA_NE

CA_SO

CA_WE

CO_EA

CO_NE

CO_SECO_SO

ID_EA

ID_SW

MT_CT

MT_NEMT_NW

NM_CT NM_EA

NM_SENM_SONM_SW

NV_EA

NV_NO

NV_SW

NV_WE

OR_NE

OR_SO

OR_WE

TX

UT_WE

WA_SO

WY_EAWY_EC

WY_NO

WY_SO

Guide: WREZ Resources

Page - 43

Guide

Environmental exclusions

Example resource

Transmission

Resource Hub

Guide: Supply Curve of WREZ Resources

Page - 44

Guide

This slide shows all of the WREZ resources in the Western Interconnection (upper right hand corner), sorted from lowest to highest adjusted delivered cost. The top 100 TWh of resources are shown in the large supply curve. Two demand lines are shown on this chart (dashed red lines). One for a 2020 RPS target (if applicable), and a second representing 33% of 2030 load (total load for California utilities). The resources to the left of the lines represent the most economic resources for that scenario.

Guide: Most Economic Resource Tables

Page - 45

Guide

This slide lists all of the individual WREZ resources identified as most economic to meet a 33 percent renewable energy target. Each resource represents a “step” in the supply curve shown on the previous page. The resources are listed in ascending order from lowest to highest cost. Generation is tracked on a cumulative basis so that the renewable penetration running total can be tracked.

This slide summarizes the information in the previous table by technology and by resource area. The resources are listed in ascending order from lowest to highest cost.

Page - 46

Guide

Guide: Utility Comparison Matrix

Resource Area PG

&E

SM

UD

LA

DW

P

SC

E

SD

GE

IID

AP

S

SR

P

TE

P

NV

En

erg

y

PN

M

El

Pas

o

Tri

-Sta

te G

&T

CS

U

Xce

l (C

O)

Pac

ific

orp

(U

T)

Pac

ific

orp

(O

R)

Pac

ific

orp

(W

A)

PG

E

EW

EB

Avi

sta

PS

E

SC

L

Tac

om

a

Idah

o P

ow

er

BC

Hyd

ro

No

rth

wes

tern

Arizona Northeast

Arizona Northwest

Arizona South

Arizona West

California Central

California East

California Northeast

California South

California West

Colorado East

Colorado Northeast

Colorado Southeast

Colorado South

Idaho East

Idaho Southwest

Montana Central

Montana Northeast

Montana Northwest

New Mexico Central

New Mexico East

New Mexico Southeast

New Mexico South

New Mexico Southwest

Nevada East

Nevada North

Nevada Southwest

Nevada West

Percentage of Hub Energy Identified as “Most Economic” for a Given Utility

>90%

66.7 - 90%

33.3 - 66.7%

10 - 33.3%

<10%

While other utilities may be interested in this zone, it is most economic for APS

All California utilities may be interested in this zone, including some with significant interest. This indicates potential for competition and/or collaboration

This zone is common to APS and SRP. A shared transmission solution may be economic

This slide compares the most economic resource areas for all utilities. The symbols represent the potential “interest”* level of a utility in an area. This is measured by the percentage of the resource area’s total resources that are identified as economic for a utility. Greater potential interest is indicated by filled circles. For example, 9,700 GWh of California West resources are identified as being economic resources to meet PG&E renewable targets. The total potential resources in California West are 59,000 GWh/yr, meaning PG&E’s interest is 16%. Per the key, the quarter-filled circle is displayed.

This slide allows a quick comparison of potential transmission collaboration or resource competition. Some examples are shown below.

*For the purposes of this discussion, “interest” means that the resource has been identified bythe model as being potentially economic. It does not imply actual interest by the utility.

Guide: Annual Average Hourly Profiles

Page - 47

Guide

California West Wind 36% Avg

Oregon West Geothermal

90% Avg

Energy Price $71/MWh Avg

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

En

erg

y P

ric

e ($

/MW

h)

Ca

pa

cit

y F

ac

tor (

%)

Hour Beginning

This slide shows the output profiles of the largest WREZs (by generation) identified as economic for the 33% by 2030 scenario. The profiles are compared to the energy price profile for the utility. Average annual diurnal profiles are provided for price and capacity factor.

The purpose of this chart is to be able to compare the relative “fit” between the output of the resources and the need (as expressed by energy value) of the utility. In the example below, the flash-based geothermal project provides a baseload resource available 24 hours a day. The wind resource is more variable, but still peaks near when energy prices are highest. It is important to note that there are seasonal variations in these data as well, not shown below. The GTM model considers a 12 month by 24 hour profile when making energy and capacity value calculations (more detailed GTM methodology and assumptions provided here).

Guide: Utility Service Area Map Showing Local ResourcesMaps are provided for the utility service area to show local and nearby WREZ renewable resources (if any). The maps show the renewable resources in relation to other features, including land exclusions, other utility service areas, and transmission lines. Key features of the maps are identified below.

Page - 48

Resource legend

Transmission line types

Wind resources

Geothermal resource

Solar resources

Hydro resources

Exclusions: lands removed from consideration for development due to environmental restrictions (e.g., wilderness area), or other land use constraints (urban areas)

Potential transmission line

Existing transmission line

Guide

Guide: Potential Local Resources

General Assumptions

The estimates represent total potential and do not account for existing resources that have already been developed.

Estimates do not consider constraints on the transmission or distribution system.

Local resources were quantified in a manner consistent with the evaluation of larger WREZ resources:

Wind: quantified Class 3 and higher wind on land that has not been excluded for environmental or other land use reasons. Only included land outside of WREZ hubs. Assumed 25% of the resulting land could be developed. Assumed 5 MW/km2 development density.

Solar: Estimate is just a rough indication of potential based on the geographic size of the utility service territory. Quantified total area of utility service territory. Assumed 1% of this land could be developed. Assumed 38 MW/km2 development density. Unlike wind, did not account for environmental exclusions or larger WREZ resources.

Page - 49

Guide

This slide quantifies potential local resources (solar PV and wind), based on a high-level GIS analysis. Utilities may supplement this with their own knowledge about other resources, including biomass, hydro and geothermal. The intent is to show how local resources might complement or compete with more distant resources.

Guide: Local Resource Economics

General Assumptions

Costs are based on utility-scale local resources (>20 MW) and consider generic performance typical for the service territory.

Wind assumptions:

$2,200/kW capital cost

Capacity factor is based on the wind class, as quantified on the previous slide.

Class 3 (32%), class 4 (36%), class 5 (39%), class 6 (42%), class 7 (46%).

Solar PV assumptions:

Thin film, fixed tilt technology

$3800/kW capital cost (ac basis)

capacity factor determined based on location

Page - 50

Guide

This slide compares the economics of potential local solar and wind resources (table on left) to the WREZ resources previously identified (supply curve on right). The intent is to show how local resources might complement or compete with more distant resources. Quantities of local resources are not definitive, so this chart just indicates where the relative cost of local resources lies compared to distant resources. An important caveat is that the local resources do not include the cost of transmission and distribution upgrades, which are unknown. As such, the economics shown here should be considered a best case scenario for local resources.

Guide: WREZ Resource MapsMaps are provided for each WREZ resource area identified as having high economic potential. The maps show the renewable resources in relation to other features, including land exclusions, utility service areas, and transmission lines. Key features of the maps are identified below.

Page - 51

Mini-map showing selected hub and surrounding areas

Resource legend

Transmission line types

For California areas, any overlapping Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZs) from the Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative are identified (map).

Wind resources

Geothermal resources

Solar resources

WREZ area of interest

Exclusions: lands removed from consideration for development due to environmental restrictions (e.g., wilderness area), or other land use constraints (urban areas)

Example foundational transmission line

Guide

Guide: Transmission Line Types

Existing: Operating lines 230 kV and higher

Foundational: transmission projects that have a very high probability of being in service in a 10-year timeframe and are an assumed input into WECC’s 2011 10-year transmission plan

Potential: transmission projects that have been identified in WECC Subregional Planning Group 10-year plans but do not meet the foundational transmission project criteria

Page - 52

Existing Foundational Potential

230-499

500

DC

Size (kV)

Guide