Scaling-Up Resilience in Africa’s Great Green Wall (SURAGGWA)

Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal | FAO

2 April 2020

Please submit the completed form to fundingproposal@gcfund.org, using the following name convention in the subject line and file name: “CN-[Accredited Entity or Country]-YYYYMMDD”

Project/Programme Title: Scaling-Up Resilience in Africa’s Great Green Wall (SURAGGWA)

Country(ies): Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal

National Designated Authority(ies) (NDA):

Burkina Faso - Ministère de l'Environnement, de l'Economie Verte et du Changement Climatique Chad - Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Mali - Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Bamako, Mali Niger – Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development Nigeria - Federal Ministry of Environment (Department of Climate Change) Senegal – Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development

Accredited Entity(ies) (AE): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Date of first submission/ version number:

[2020-03-DD] [V.1]

Date of current submission/ version number

[2020-07-12] [V.2]

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2

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Notes • The maximum number of pages should not exceed 12 pages, excluding annexes.

Proposals exceeding the prescribed length will not be assessed within the indicative service standard time of 30 days.

• As per the Information Disclosure Policy, the concept note, and additional documents provided to the Secretariat can be disclosed unless marked by the Accredited Entity(ies) (or NDAs) as confidential.

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• Further information on GCF concept note preparation can be found on GCF website Funding Projects Fine Print.

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A. Project/Programme Summary (max. 1 page)

A.1. Project or programme

☒ Project

☐ Programme

A.2. Public or private sector

☒ Public

sector

☐ Private sector

A.3. Is the CN submitted in

response to an RFP?

Yes ☐ No ☒

If yes, specify the RFP: ______________

A.4. Confidentiality1 ☐ Confidential

☒ Not confidential

A.5. Indicate the result areas for the project/programme

Mitigation: Reduced emissions from:

☐ Energy access and power generation

☐ Low emission transport

☐ Buildings, cities and industries and appliances

☒ Forestry and land use

Adaptation: Increased resilience of:

☒ Most vulnerable people and communities

☐ Health and well-being, and food and water security

☐ Infrastructure and built environment

☒ Ecosystem and ecosystem services

A.6. Estimated mitigation impact (tCO2eq over lifespan)

Approx. 33 mn tonnes CO2 equivalent (mt CO2 eq/ha) after 10 years; 94 mn tonnes over 20 years

A.7. Estimated adaptation impact (number of direct beneficiaries and % of rural/total population)

Approx. 1.75 mn beneficiaries 2% / <1%2

A.8. Indicative total project cost (GCF + co-finance)

Amount: to be confirmed

A.9. Indicative GCF funding requested

Amount: to be confirmed

A.10. Mark the type of financial instrument requested for the GCF funding

☒ Grant ☐ Reimbursable grant ☐ Guarantees ☐ Equity

☐ Subordinated loan ☐ Senior Loan ☐ Other: specify___________________

A.11. Estimated duration of project/ programme:

10 years

A.12. Estimated project/ Programme lifespan

25 years

A.13. Is funding from the Project Preparation Facility requested?3

Yes ☐ No ☒

Other support received ☐ If so, by

who:

A.14. ESS category4

☐ A or I-1

☒ B or I-2

☐ C or I-3

A.15. Is the CN aligned with your accreditation standard?

Yes ☒ No ☐ A.16. Has the CN been shared with the NDA?

Yes ☒

No ☐

A.17. AMA signed (if submitted by AE)

Yes ☒ No ☐

If no, specify the status of AMA negotiations and expected date of signing:

A.18. Is the CN included in the Entity Work Programme?

Yes ☒

No ☐

A.19. Project/Programme rationale, objectives and approach of programme/project (max 100 words)

Brief summary of the problem statement and climate rationale, objective and selected implementation approach, including the executing entity(ies) and other implementing partners.

“Mai lura da ice bashin jin yunwa” - He who takes care of trees will not suffer from hunger. – Hausa proverb

The Sahel has experienced some of the most extreme climate events on earth in the 20th century, and data from 1900 shows clear long-term climate change with a tendency towards higher temperatures, lower precipitation and increased frequency of extreme event stressors such as floods and droughts. These have severely impacted both the

1 Concept notes (or sections of) not marked as confidential may be published in accordance with the Information Disclosure Policy (Decision B.12/35) and the Review of the Initial Proposal Approval Process (Decision B.17/18). 2 Rural/total populations used. In Nigeria, only the estimated northern dryland rural population used. 3 See here for access to project preparation support request template and guidelines 4 Refer to the Fund’s environmental and social safeguards (Decision B.07/02)

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local populations and the Sahelian agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes, resulting in decreasing possibilities for the ecosystems to continue to provide their many services, ensuring sustainable livelihoods, and avoiding mounting terrorist and herder/farmer conflicts and out-migration.

The SURWAGWA project proposes to carry out an urgent and major paradigm shift in six countries which are extremely vulnerable to climate change (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal) within the African Union’s Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative adopted in 2007. The SURRAGWA will do so by removing barriers to heightened resilience and greater mitigation, through: (i) scaling-up of successful restoration practices with native species; (ii) supporting the development of climate-resilient, low emission value chains of non-timber forest products in support of vulnerable communities’ livelihoods, and (iii) strengthening the Great Green Wall’s regional and national institutions

The project will build on the vast and long lasting support FAO has provided to Sahelian countries on the GGW especially the Action Against Desertification (AAD) project implemented by FAO and funded by European Union and scale up successful practices from the GEF/World Bank (BRICK project), African Development Bank (Programme for Integrated Development and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Niger Basin) and FAO Operation Acacia in support to the Gum arabic sustainable production. The multi-country implementation approach includes a regional coordinating body (FAO with the Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall), specialized regional and national agencies and NGOs. Locally, communities will have the key role. These actions will directly contribute to three of GCF’s Results Areas: reduced emissions from forestry and land use; increased resilience of most vulnerable people and communities; and increased resilience of ecosystem and ecosystem services.

The SURAGGWA multi-country project is part of the regional GCF-umbrella programme now under development, together with the GAMS FAO GCF project in Sudan, recently submitted. As such, the project will strongly coordinate with other projects under the GCF-GGW programme to ensure an harmonized approach and increase the overall impact of the programme.

B. Project/Programme Information (max. 8 pages)

B.1. Context and baseline (max. 2 pages) The West and Central Africa Sahel region is a semi-arid area (200 – 600 mm annual precipitation) that runs from the Atlantic Ocean eastward to Chad, separating the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian Savana to the south. This region is arguably one of the most vulnerable to climate change with most likely the largest number of people disproportionately affected by climate change (IPCC, 2014; USAID, 2017). Within the Sahel and Sahara zone is the Great Green Wall area which encompasses 780 million hectares – twice the size of India – and contains 232 million people. In this core area, 166 million hectares including forest land, croplands, forests and wetland, were identified in need of restoration for improved productivity, resilience and carbon sequestration (FAO, 2016). Climate change in the Sahel. Since the beginning of the last century, although climate variability has been extreme from year to year as Figure 1 below shows for precipitation, the long-term trend particularly from the 1970s to the present has been significantly and with few exceptions below the mean. During this period, temperature increases have been higher than the global average (+1.5 to 2.0 oC between 1950-2010), the dry season has lengthened, decreased rainfall of on average between -4 and -6 % between 1901-2013 (average rainfall was below average in Burkina Faso by 15%, in Chad by 13%, in Mali by 12%, and in Niger by 8%), and there have been increases in frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events and flooding in the order of between +17 to 21% from 1970 - 2010 (Mason, 2015; IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014, USAID, 2018). More recently, the region is still recovering from the food crisis and natural resources degradation brought about in large measure by the climate change severe droughts experienced in the 70’s and 80’s (the most dramatic in the 20th century) and more recently in 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2012 as shown below. In some countries this has meant years without any precipitation (USAID, 2017) particularly in the region’s climate hotspots in regions of Senegal, Mauritania, and Mali and Niger.

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Climate projections indicate that temperatures in the West Sahel are expected to increase by 3–6°C by 2100, inter-annual variability in rainfalls will increase as well as occurrence of erratic rainfalls and extreme droughts and floods, and reduced duration of the rainy season (IPCC, 2014). The IPCC concludes that temperature increases are projected to be 1.5 times higher than in the rest of the world, and there is high confidence of “evidence of warming over land regions across Africa, consistent with anthropogenic climate change… climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability in Africa”. Most models show decreased rainfall in the Western Sahel (with up to -16, depending on the source and country), possibility of increased rainfall in the center Sahel (-3 to +11%), and increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events (+1 to +75%) (USAID, 2018). Vulnerability to climate change in the Sahel is extremely high. Over 20 million food insecure people and nearly 6 million malnourished children live in the Sahel, due to enhanced stress on food systems, linked to climate change (Nyariki and Wiggins, 1997; Battisti and Naylor; 2009; Sissoko et al., 2011). The region is projected to potentially experience about 250 million tons of food deficits by 2020 (the IPCC projects that in a business-as-usual scenario, Chad and Niger could potentially lose their entire rain-fed agriculture by 2100). The region has a high population growth of on average 3 percent/year (Mason, 2015; Clover, 2010; Verpoorten et al., 2013). Approximately 80% of people live in poverty and extreme poverty (less than USD2.00/day)5. Niger is ranked 189 out of 189 in the 2018 UN Human Development Index; Chad 186; Burkina Faso 183, Mali 182, Senegal 164, Nigeria 157. Agriculture, the main rural livelihood activity, is extensive, rarely mechanized and almost entirely reliant on 3-4 months of rainfall, making it highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. It represents up to 25% of GDP, and a higher proportion of employment. In dry years, the region faces serious food security challenges and must rely on imported grain purchases or food aid (USAID, 2017). The rural economy in the West and Central Sahel is largely dependent on agro-sylvo-pastoral (AFOLU) production landscapes and the use and formal and informal trade of forest ecosystems products during favourable weather. The Sahel has in fact traditionally been a producer and exporter of cereals, cash crops, livestock and a number of non-timber forest products (NTFP) of national and international value. Another measure of vulnerability is the ND-Gain Country Index which measures climate vulnerability and readiness to improve resilience, out of 181 countries – Chad is 180; Niger 175; Burkina Faso 161, Mali 166, Nigeria 148 and Senegal 131 (ND-Gain, 2017). There are also limited systematic early warning systems in place against natural hazards and disasters (Cuthbert et al., 2014), with few, timely and appropriate information for Government and other decision makers as well as communities. In addition, more frequent water shortages are also documented (Rohr et al., 2011). Increasing tree and other vegetative cover mortality or dieback, with declines in tree density and species richness across sites in the Sahel such as, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Senegal and Niger were recorded in the last half of the 20th century (Gonzalez et al., 2012). Associated stressors are deforestation and land degradation due to agricultural expansion, erosion, overgrazing, sand intrusion, invasive species, and biodiversity losses from poaching. The impact of these stressors on the wooded ecosystems have been multiple and successively feed a downward spiral: decreasing resilience to climate change, dying off of all but the most resistant species which successively depletes the number of interlinked and dependent species, many of which provide livelihoods to the surrounding populations in particular the non-timber forest products (NTFP) - such as gum Arabic and other resins, balanites oil, forage, baobab, hides and skins, honey and human and animal medicinal plants. With little biomass anchoring the soils, water and wind erosion increases, land degrades, emissions increase as soil and above ground biomass are burnt off. In low precipitation years, pressure increases on the remaining ecosystem’s natural resources: firewood and excess harvesting of NTFPs to sustain livelihoods is often the norm. These wooded areas ability to serve as protective barriers to agricultural lands to even the harshest weather events – stopping erosion, reducing impacts of flooding events, providing diverse production alternatives – are all decreasing. Women and youth are usually most affected

5 United Nations Africa Renewal, Oct-Nov 2017.

Fig. 1 - Sahel precipitation anomalies, 1901-2017 Sahel precipitation was above the long-term mean from 1915-30s and between 1950 -60s. After this it has been persistently below the long-term mean, with the largest negative anomalies in the early 1980’s. It has not returned to pre-1960s levels since then, including zero precipitation years (JISAO, 2016).

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by climate change, and this region is no exception, because as key players in agriculture and NTFP harvesting and processing, they are highly dependent on these sectors’ production for their livelihoods, often more so than men who have other options, including migration. Combining the above climate change impacts and other stressors on the main sectors of the rural economy – agriculture, livestock and forestry/ecosystems – paints a dire picture of very vulnerable lands and people. Competition for increasingly scarce resources has caused conflict and migration, with over 1 million displaced people in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (Myers, 2001, 2002; Myers and Kent, 2001; Epuleet al., 2015; USAID, 2017). Greenhouse gas profile. In Sahelian agriculture, GHG emissions are attributable to livestock, crops and forestry in that order. Livestock generate greenhouse gases mainly in the form of methane emissions arising from digestion processes and nitrous oxide emissions arising from excretions. The cultivation of crops contributes to GHGs mainly by using fertiliser as well as by emitting N2O from crop residues reintroduced into the ground. Forestry emissions are driven by deforestation for agricultural land and forest degradation due to fuel-wood consumption, as well as formal and informal logging. Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal’s NDCs detail the AFOLU sector emitting between 63.8 – 91.1% of the countries’ emissions; solutions to this sector are of the highest priority to meet their NDCs. More exact greenhouse gas emissions/carbon accounting profiles in Mt CO2 eq. for specific restoration activities, specific regions of Sahelian countries, the wider AFOLU sector, and NTFP value chains are being calculated. Potential for mitigation and adaptation by Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). According to a recent analysis published by FAO (2016), AFOLU is the key sector proposed to achieve the NDCs targets submitted to the UNFCCC by most African countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. On a global level, the Paris Agreement explicitly recognizes the role of forests and their ecosystems in the mitigation of climate change. Indeed, scientific opinion has coalesced around the need to shift away from the management of individual resources (e.g., only reforestation), to a landscape approach that addresses all land uses, their drivers and their interactions. It is embedded in the Convention on Biological Diversity and responds to an unprecedented 15 of 17 UN SDGs. Recognising this critical situation and the role of ecosystem restoration as one of the most effective nature-based solutions to combat climate change, 2021-2030 was declared by the UN General Assembly as a UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration with FAO and UNEP co-leading its implementation. In addition, Ecosystem Restoration will contribute to achieve countries’ commitments to the Bonn Challenge including the African Forest Landscape Restoration (AFR100), the Great Green Wall Initiative and the Pan-African action agenda on ecosystem restoration for building resilience endorsed by the CBD Ministerial Conference. Restoration responds directly to three GCF results areas: Forestry and land use, Most vulnerable people and communities, and Ecosystems and ecosystem services. It contributes to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration spearheaded by FAO and UNEP, the UN Decade of family farming coordinated by FAO and IFAD, and a Rio 20+ objective of a land-degradation neutral world under the coordination of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The Global Guidelines on Restoration describe it as “addressing restoration on a landscape scale, often encompassing several ecosystems and land uses as a way of enabling users to achieve trade-offs among conflicting interests and balancing social, cultural, economic and environmental benefits.” Additionally, the UNFCCC sees it as an efficient means to considerably increase carbon stocks and reduce emissions at low cost with potential co-benefits of climate change adaptation and sustainable development. 6 The Sahel’s forests, woodlands, wetlands, and grasslands are important ecosystems that host vast biodiversity of plant and animal species which help sustain livelihoods and their resilience. They provide a range of services including important NTFP commodities described above which provide additional sources of income and in poor agricultural years, being more resilient to climate variability, they often provide the extra income necessary, a safety-net to sustain livelihoods (FAO, 2018). The AFOLU sector can play a key role in adaptation through activities aimed at restoring land increasingly degraded by climate change and reducing excess pressure on vulnerable natural resources (water, soils, wood, non-timber forest products, fodder and pastoral land). These restorative activities can increase soil fertility, preserve water quality and watercycles, reduce run-off, protect land and agricultural production from increasingly intense floods and droughts, increase percolation of rainwater, regenerate grasses for livestock. In fact, restoration of ecosystems’ natural capital from barren lands to robust dryland ecosystems has large mitigation benefits from increased soil organic matter and above ground biomass. The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGWSSI, or GGW), is Africa's flagship initiative to combat the effects of above described climate change and desertification and develop sustainable development pathways in this food-insecure region and its highly vulnerable populations and landscapes. Led by the African Union, which represents the governments of all African nations, the initiative approved in 2007 aims to achieve a

6 Global guidelines for the restoration of degraded forests and landscapes in drylands – building resilience and benefiting livelihoods. FAO Forestry Paper 175, 2015.

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transformational change for millions of people by increasing resilience in the Sahara and the Sahel region7 through an integrated landscape approach. It aims to grow an 8,000 km corridor of landscape restoration across the entire width of the Continent (Figure 2). The initiative’s restoration potential is estimated at 166 million hectares of arid and semi-arid lands in its agro-sylvo-pastoral systems. By 2030, the GGW aims to restore 100 million hectares of currently degraded land, reduce emissions, sequester 250 million tons of carbon and create 10 million green jobs in rural areas. It contributes to an unprecedented 16 of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals. Indeed, the restoration approach to implement biophysical and socio-economic activities will address climate change adaptation and mitigation, livelihoods improvement, health and well-being and also sustainable rural development. The political will for the GGW, a necessary condition to ensure adequate support and sustainability, has endured 10 years since its approval, through changes in Governments and donor priorities. With FAO’s support, the AU Commission has developed a regional harmonized strategy8, which includes the integrated landscape approach - agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), which is also aligned to all Sahelian countries’ climate strategies, NAPs, NAMAs, and NDCs (FAO, 2018). The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) specifically highlights “recent success stories from smallholder systems in Africa illustrate the potential for transforming degraded agricultural landscapes into more productive, sustainable, and resilient systems”. FAO has been a key implementing partner of the GGW through, among others, successful AFOLU programmes such as most recently the Action Against Desertification (AAD) programme, funded by the European Union-Africa Carribean Group of States (EU-ACP), which is restoring drylands and degraded lands at large scale with and by more resilient communities (Figure 3). Under AAD, over 500 communities are implementing their locally chosen restoration pathway and have now achieved 53,000 ha of degraded land being restored using enriched natural regeneration, seeding and planting diversified native species, planting 10 million seedlings, and 700,000 farmers, half of which are women, have chosen 10 non-timber forest products (NTFP) species for income generation and development of climate-resilient value chains. The project will build most directly on this project’s experiences and lessons learnt for restoration technologies, native seed supplies, and community participation methodologies.

Figure 2 - Map of the Great Green Wall core intervention areas in the Saheland north Africa – coloured in an optimistic green(FAO, 2016)

The project will be informed and build on succesfull experiences and lessons learnt from other ongoing initiatives and projects funded e.g., by the GEF/World Bank (BRICK project), African Development Bank (Programme for Integrated Development and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Niger Basin), and FAO Operation Acacia in support to the Gum arabic sustainable production, food security and resilience of communitities implemented with funding support from the Italian Cooperation in 6 GGW countries including Sudan, to cite a few. Other projects the project will build on include third community-based rural development project funded by the World Bank in Burkina Faso under implementation since June 2013. Its objective is to “enhance the capacity of rural communities and decentralized institutions for the implementation of local development plans that promote sustainable land and natural resources management and productive investments at commune level” (World Bank, 2020). A similar project in Senegal will develop inclusive commercial agriculture with a sustainable land management in targeted areas. These and other projects show that forest conservation, sustainable management and restoration of degraded lands, ecosystems and

7 In June 2010 the following 11 Sahelian countries signed a convention to implement the GGW: Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Sudan. 8 Harmonised regional strategy for implementation of the “Great Green Wall Initiative of the Sahara and the Sahel” was achieved based on strong political will in the African continent to form an African partnership supported by international solidarity, in order to halt and reverse land degradation tendencies (water, soil, vegetation) in Africa’s arid lands through a coherent and cooperative set of actions. FAO was one of the principle authors.

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agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes are a large part of the nature-based solution to climate change. Ecosystem and landscape restoration carry considerable adaptation and mitigation benefits and impacts and directly contribute to several international conventions. In addition, the GCF has financed three Readiness proposals through FAO in Burkina Faso, Senegal, Chad and a fourth is being finalized in Niger, to detail the means the countries can meet their NDCs, in particular through such regional programmes as the GGW. The Readiness proposals will inform and complement the results of the SURWAGGWA project through supporting the identification of technologies to be scaled up in the five GGW regions of the country, building on the ones already identified through previous initiatives (AAD project, PPRC, etc), generating data and engage stakeholders. With its resources, GCF can catalyse the large-scale implementation of technical adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate action, in countries and a region of the highest priority on a global scale. Given these successful experiences, barriers still exist that are impeding a wider adoption of these technologies and solutions across the Sahel. Long-term political will and support exists since 2007, proven technologies are available, there are successful experiences co-financed by various implementers, suppliers of difficult to procure native ecosystems species seeds exist, and communities believe in the proposal and have been willing to contribute considerable land and labour to implement it. However, as in most rural developmental situations - and in even more complex situations such as the Sahel – a number of negative factors or barriers are also at play:

• Insufficient sustainable financing to scale-up successful experiences to a considerably larger geographical area over longer periods of time;

• Institutional – regional and national implementing institutions are not always experienced in handling large scale investment interventions; capacities and knowledge are not well institutionalized/ anchored internally;

• Environmental, security - competition to access weakening natural resource base brings about intercommunal conflicts between e.g., herders and farmers, increasing armed terrorism in the northern Sahel;

• Social - Women and youth who are often the most involved in NTFP, are not always provided with targeted, gender- sensitive, equitable support, interventions and benefits; and

• Information - insufficient dissemination of information on climate and restoration lessons learnt, to policy decision makers and to the communities.

B.2. Project/Programme description (max. 3 pages)

Describe the expected set of components/outputs and subcomponents/activities to address the above barriers identified that will lead to the expected outcomes.

The six Sahelian country project objective is focused on increasing vulnerable forest-dependent producers’ livelihood resilience to climate change impacts described in B.1 (in particular reduced and more variable precipitation, increased temperatures, flooding and droughts) in the West and Central Sahel, while mitigating emissions and sequestering carbon in restored ecosystems. This transformational change will build on the framework and longer-term objectives of the African Union’s regional Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative (GGW), and significantly scale-up successful past and present initiatives. The SURAGGWA project as well as the FAO GAMS project in Sudan, are part of the GCF-GGW umbrella programme currently under development. As such, during the formulation and implementation phases, the project will ensure coordination with other GGW interventions, collection and application of lessons learnt and exchange of best practices in order to ensure an harmonized, replicable and impactful approach across the GGW region. The current proposal presents an innovative approach to be deployed and scaled-up under the GCF-GGW umbrella programme and with the potential of being replicated in other areas of the GGW. Indeed, scalability and replicability of large scale landscapes restoration are key factors that have been already applied through FAO’s Action Against Desertification (AAD) project and approach. Component 3 of SURAGGWA will contribute to the governance and scalability of Component 1 and 2 activities by developing capacities of the Panafrican agency of the GGW and the national GGW agencies in the six countries. Component 2 will contribute to scalability and sustainablity of the project activities by strengthening the link between producers and the private sector. The model could also be replicated in other GGW countries under the overall GCF/GGW umbrella programme. More specifically, the objectives of this project are to:

• Increase GHG sequestration through sustainable land-use management and large-scale restoration of dryland forests, and agro-sylvo-pastoral systems, while reducing GHG emissions from forest and rangelands degradation, and more resilient, low-emission value chains (mitigation);

• Enhance resilience of the livelihoods of vulnerable communities to the impacts of a changing climate on productive landscapes/ecosystems across selected sections of the Great Green Wall area (adaptation);

• Strengthen the regional GGW institutionality, including associated institutions, and disseminate early climate warning information, and lessons learnt from restoration experiences.

Proposed multi-country GGW project.

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National and regional project conception. In concert with the NDAs from six West and Central Sahelian countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal - and the regional and national GGW agencies/institutions, FAO is proposing a multi-country project which aims at addressing the devastating impacts of climate change in the Sahel by scaling-up successful adaptation and mitigation interventions in the AFOLU sectors, as described in B.1. Two inception workshops have been held with national authorities:

i) A first workshop involving 50+ person strategic planning workshop with NDAs. GGW national agencies of the 6 countries and other regional and national representatives and stakeholders in August 2019, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The need for one multi-country project approach was based on the outcomes of the workshop given the commonality of the climate change problems affecting the Sahel and similar agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions. FAO supports this strategic approach, given its experience in the region. The project would operate in partnership with the regional and national agencies of the Great Green Wall Initiative, the NDAs along with the Ministries (usually of the environment) they are ascribed to, and a number of partner institutions dealing with e.g., native species seed production, climate forecasting, value chain development. This would provide a strong advantage

by using a strategy, programme and existing institutions that have been harmonized9 and have enduring

political support. ii) A second workshop was held with the full project formulation team of 64 (, project regional partners

and experts including the Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall as well as field enumerators) in February 2020 in Kumasi, Ghana. Understanding and reviewing GCF procedures and requirements, the theory of change and project components, as well as establishing work programmes and coordination between formulation teams were reviewed.

The project’s paradigm shift is to: shift how rural communities, decision-makers in government and private sector finance, adopt and protect investments in restoring natural capital in the Sahel as the means to increase resilient ecosystems and livelihoods, lower emissions from land use, and act as a carbon sink. Removing the barriers to restoring and strengthening their ecosystems and livelihoods, rather than continue to “mine” natural resources to an unsustainable level is essential. Several successful activities mentioned in B.1, in particular the Action Against Desertification FAO/EU-ACP programme, would undergo a 10+-fold scaling-up across the six countries to a significantly larger geographic area urgently needed to deal with this climate-induced crisis. The main barriers which the project would assist in removing so as to achieve the paradigm shift include:

a) financial: provide considerably larger scale financing to extend the successful restoration experiences. b) institutional: strengthen regional and national GGW institutional capacity to manage larger scale climate

change mitigation and adaptation interventions, as well as communal level organizations of local forest-based producers. Early warning and climate information and restoration lessons learnt would also be disseminated.

c) ecological and security - strengthen the natural resource base to reduce competition and conflict among users, e.g., herders and farmers;

d) social – provide targeted interventions for women and youth who are usually the most impacted by climate variability and change. Women’s rights will be safeguarded through supporting women’s capabilities, and their equal and meaningful participation as actors, leaders and decision makers.

The theory of change (Annex 1) shows the causal linkages between the business-as-usual situation and the project’s proposed agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes restoration, the barriers to achieving the restoration, project activities and outcomes, strategic GCF results areas. It also includes assumptions, risks, stressors and enablers. In summary, and as described in more detail in B.1, at present (business as usual), the agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes on which populations depend for their livelihoods, is in a downward spiral due to climate change permanently damaging rural landscapes, increasing depletion of natural resources by competing users, decreasing resilience of the vulnerable population and ecosystems and increasing GHG emissions due to deteriorating land (taken from: the six countries’ NDC). The transformational change to achieve the paradigm shift to a climate resilient and low emission pathway centres on the scaling-up of sustainable interventions to finance, restore and expand Sahelian ecosystems utilizing a mix of native species (key for resilience building) chosen by surrounding communities and adapted to worsening climate conditions. This opens diverse livelihood options to the communities—and therefore a stake in the protection of those restored ecosystems. The multi-country approach will favour an unprecedented level of collaboration among contiguous countries, funding and technical partners to support the political will behind the GGW. Project support would no longer be required once the restoration is completed, value chains are in operation and GGW Institutions and communities capacities strengthened. The project aims at acheiving the following fund level results:

9 Ibid - Harmonised regional strategy for implementation of the “Great Green Wall Initiative of the Sahara and the Sahel”

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M4.0 Reduced emissions from land use, reforestation, reduced deforestation, and through sustainable forest management and conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks; A1.0 Increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities and regions; A4.0 Improved resilience of ecosystems and ecosystem services The paradigm shift and the project objective will be achieved through the following three componentsApproximately 1.0 mn ha of degraded drylands would be restored, benefiting 250,000 households and 1.75 mn vulnerable rural dwellers, while sequestering 33 mn tonnes of CO2 eq over 10 years. Component 1: Large scale landscape restoration to increase climate change resilience and mitigation, for and by local communities.

This combined adaptation and mitigation component, the very heart of project actions, would directly respond to the severe impacts of climate change on local agro-sylvo-pastoral (AFOLU) landscapes, their ecosystems and their service provision as described in B.1. On adaptation - healthy, restored ecosystems are a nature-based solution that act as a barrier against climate change, desertification, and floods, reduce run-off, increase percolation of rainwater, elevate water tables, regenerate grasses for livestock. On mitigation – emission would be considerably reduced, and restored landscapes would act as significant carbon sinks above and below the ground. These sinks would be built up – from aproximately 33 mn tons of CO2 eq. over the project’s 10 years, rising to 94 mn over 20 years as the vegetation matures. A symbiotic relationship between the communities, the restored areas/ecosystems and its production of resilient non-timber forest products is formed as described in B.1 (e.g., gum Arabic, Karite, balanites oil). These NTFP are significant sources of income, thereby strengthening the resilience of participating communities’ livelihoods and their ability to adapt to climate change. Actions and methodologies to restore the landscapes/ecosystems include: communities are asked if they wish to participate if: they are in arid and semi-arid zones of the Sahel (200-600 mm annual precipitation); communities are among the most vulnerable as measured by poverty levels and their usually deteriorating stock of natural capital; and the community agrees to the following restoration methodology and activities: a) provide communal land for restoration (>50 ha plots), which is then legalized through documentation at the municipality; b) labour to plant the seeds and the seedlings and maintain the plot; c) form a management committee which will oversee the planting, maintenance, assign work tasks and responsibilities; d) choose the native plant species they would like to use and most useful to their needs in the restoration for their own support; e) ensure an equitable distribution of benefits from the plots, in particular taking into account women’s and youth important role in restoration, and e) nominate two village technicians who will provide support and follow-up to the restoration and maintenance with project technical support. They are also responsible for gathering wild native seeds and establishing and caring for a native species nursery (these have often evolved into small private businesses under AAD, as has land preparation, which will be further upscaled to the private sector under the project). It is worthy of note that none of the 500 communities approached to participate in AAD ever said no. Unmet demand remains high. Component 1, which establishes and restores landscapes/ecosystems, will contribute to the sustainability of the project. As the vegetation matures, incentives increase to the communities as they view their natural capital increasing, as well as the financial returns it will provide. So too the private sector VC members will (and have already expressed their interest) want to participate in the NTFP harvest, from year 1-2 (fodder), to a more continuing production of higher quality NTFP items after that. Once this is completed, if the plot of land that is severely degraded and natural regeneration cannot happen on its own, using traditional manual (half-moon) and/or mechanized restoration techniques, the project would carry out large scale land preparation for rainwater harvesting and soil permeability. The land would then be seeded and when the rainy season begins, seedlings planted (Figure 3). Approx. 600,000 ha of such lands would be restored. In other less degraded areas (approx. 400,000 ha) with some plant species surviving, other techniques would be used to restore and enrich the landscapes and ecosystems, including obstructing sand encroachment, enrichment planting and natural regeneration of native woody and grassy vegetation adapted to sandy and arid environments. Building up biodiversity is the backbone for the the adaptation practises to build up resilience of local communities and landscapes in such extreme conditions, which will also act as important carbon sinks. A total of approx. 1.0 mn ha would be restored in 10 years, mitigating large amounts of CO2 eq, as detailed above and in section B.3. Project staff and selected and trained NGOs and other service providers would implement the above activities, as was done under AAD. Seeds and seedlings (germplasm) are a crucial element in this adaptation and mitigation equation. Seeds from wild native species are not readily available as are others such as agricultural crops. AAD has initiated a large-scale effort, continued presently in anticipation of this project, to reduce this barrier. It involves: a) the forestry research centers in the six countries have begun to produce, collect, ensure quality control (germination rates) of a number of species

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(over 20 of the most popular ones under AAD); b) at each village level, two technicians will be assigned roles including after appropriate capacity building, of collecting wild seeds, and setting up native species nurseries. This approach closely involves rural communities – and their livelihoods – at the heart of the process. Strong women and youth representation as members and leaders would be encouraged given their often primal role in the establishment and maintenance of restored areas, and the care and harvesting of NTFPs. Communities and restored landscapes would now become intimately and symbiotically tied together, they are both made significantly more resilient, and emissions are reduced and sequestered in above and below ground biomass and organic matter. Component costs would be shared as follows: GCF would finance the promotion of the project at community level, capacity building, land preparation and seed/seedlings. The rest of the above would be provided by the communities (land and labour), which in some cases will have evolved into private businesses (see above). The project would make a very strong contribution to the GGW umbrella progamme, both through adaptation and mitigation, in terms of direct impact by the project itself as well as its multiplier effect in neighbouring national level regions and countries which in several cases have already requested to be included in similar future projects. The project’s trans-boundary action across the six countries is estimated to reach 15-17,000 hectares per annum per country once the project is in full swing, reaching an approximate total of 1.0 mn hectares by the end of the project’s 10 years. It is estimated, to be further corroborated during formulation, that approximately 250,000 households or 1.75 mn people will be benefited by the project, of which at least half would be women, based on AAD experience. Most of these will also benefit from Component 2 as their NTFP are organized and upscaled into sustainable value chains, hence ensuring the close link of resilience between landscape restoration and livelihoods. Figure 3 below gives a good idea of the results achieved with this methodology and technologies, under AAD.

Figure 3 - Restoring natural capital at scale in the Sahel – example of FAO’s Action Against Desertification operations in action in 2016-2018 in Burkina Faso, where land is ploughed using the Delfino Plough (that mimic the traditional “half-moon” technique dug by hand) for larger scales, better soil permeability and rainwater harvesting up to 1000 liters per half-moonand increasing soil permeability over wider areas of land. With appropriate planting of well-adapted native species by local communities (right species in the right place and at the right time), considerable re-greening and vegetation cover resulted within three rainy seasons

Component 2: Creating and strengthening resilient, low-emission, equitable, gender-sensitive non-timber forest product smallholder value chains

Similar to Component 1, this one also covers adaptation and mitigation actions and outputs. The restoration and sustainable management of the agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes and their ecosystems (Component 1) will generate a greater production of a diverse array of climate adapted and resilient non-timber forest products (NTFP) already identified and mentioned in B.1 (gum Arabic, balanites oil, fodder, honey, forest seeds and fruits, etc). The project will assist in upgrading each product’s value chain to ensure increased income and resilient livelihoods, equitable distribution of value addition, sustainable markets, and mitigate VC emissions. Value addition through VC development is also one of the key elements of the GCF/GGW umbrella programme. The activities to achieve these outputs include, first, carrying out the Ex-Act value chain analysis developed by FAO, based on field surveys (on-going now during formulation). This will provide a wealth of information on returns to each member/actor of the value chain (e.g., producer, processor, transporter, wholesaler, exporter). Additionally, it provides a carbon accounting of each step so a carbon balance can be determined for each step of the VC, and identify where there is room to mitigate emissions, and increase financial returns and therefore increase resilience at each step.

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With the gathering of this Ex-Act information at formulation stage, meetings will be organized with all members/actors of the chain wich will result in local VC committee. Actors will include farmers (men and women), and from the private sector - primary and secondary processors, transporters, wholesalers, retailers, and exporters. Results of the analysis are presented, and recommendations made on means to ensure climate resilient, emissions-mitigating VC pathways that improve efficiencies and returns, as well as ensure these are equitably distributed commensurate with the work being carried out. Gender and youth sensitive analysis across the value chain would also have been carried out and presented highlighting sharing of benefits, membership and leadership. During implementation stage, with the above information, which will be further refined and lessons learnt from within and outside the country, the value chain (VC) actors would agree on how to improve the VC based on the specific site context, and consequently, develop a business plan with responsibilities and value addition distribution. Low-emissions VC technologies would also be encouraged by the project during the capacity building, including e.g., the use of solar power, more efficient machinery, environmentally appropriate waste disposal. For the business plans which include lower emission VC technologies, equipment and/or machinery, the project could provide financing for its purchase (exact modalities are being explored during formulation). If for producers’ groups – they would co-finance in the range of 10-20%; if for private sector actors in the VC who can show the new technology or equipment will reduce emissions and benefit the other actors, it would be co-financed approximately 50-50%, ensuring private sector co-financing and sustainability over the longer run. During project implementation, FAO would accompany the VC actors for as long as needed to ensure after a few years it is operating independently, equitably, efficiently, and low emission. Major incentives for private sector participation are the increasing quantities of NTFP what will become available and improved quality given the projects’ capacity building of producers in this regard. Private sector actors have already been identified for products, e.g., gum Arabic (regionally and internationally), forage (nomad livestock herders), and some have agreed to provide purchase agreements as part of the projects co-financing. These will be presented in the Funding Proposal but generally the private sector (local and national) engagement will explore direct support to low emission value chains development and communities’ enterprises as well as markets. The project will also actively pursue existing microcredit schemes to which the communities or VC committees could work with. Component costs would be shared as follows: GCF would cover the VC actors’ capacity building, further selected market and value chain technologies studies as required, a portion of the equipment and or machinery in the proportions mentioned above, and follow-up support once the VC business plans have been drawn up and are being implemented. Producers would provide the labour for harvesting NTFPs, and preliminary processing depending on the product. In some cases, they could directly package and sell the products (e.g., honey, balanites soap, etc). The private sector would co-finance emission-lowering technologies and equipment in the proportions mentioned above, purchase of the NTFPs and costs of processing, packaging and marketing – be it locally, nationally, or internationally. These VCs are another crucial link in the resilience and sustainability of the restored plots and project actions overall. The financial incentives provided by increased returns, would ensure that the farmers/forest-dependent dwellers in Component 1 producing the NTFPs, protect and maintain their restored ecosystems. Sustainability of the restored plots = more resilient, sustainable livelihoods.

Component 3: Strengthening the regional and national Great Green Wall institutions, to better support the implementation of climate action initiatives.

Responding to the severe climate change impacts in the Sahelian and Sahara regions described in B.1, the African Union developed the Harmonised regional strategy for implementation of the “Great Green Wall Initiative of the Sahara and the Sahel”. Among others, it urges the strengthening of the GGW institutionality to both identify appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation investments, their financing, implementation, supervision and evaluation, as well as exchange lessons learnt from such investments and experiences. In addition, this closely supports the GCF/GGW umbrella programme which seeks similar outcomes. This component would assist in all these areas over the project’s 10 years, as follows:

a) Through the implementation of this project by FAO, and in close coordination with the Pan African Agency for the Great Green Wall (PAAGGW) and its national agencies, capacities will be built up and appropriate office equipment (remote sensing, GIS, computers) would be procured so that the Agency can: i) attract financing, ii) formulate, and iii) support implementation of larger scale climate action investments in the future. Personnel from the Agency would accompany FAO in all stages of the above under SURAGGWA and in certain competencies, begin to successively take over selected functions (see Institutional arrangements below).

b) Setting up a multi-layer Geographic Information System (GIS) of the six countries’ Great Green Wall areas, with climatic (historic and early warning), biophysical, socio-economic, NTFP location, value chain information, as well as other including AAD project locations and restoration plots, proposed SURAGGWA project areas and restoration progress, and location of other similar projects in the Sahelian region. The information would be an open source available to interested public, private and civil society actors, and would help to coordinate sustainable development and climate action efforts in the region using a climate-based GIS. Information sources

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would include satellite, living standard measurement survey (LSMS), surveys undertaken by the project, Agrymet climate information, Open Foris Collect Earth tool FAO developed with Google earth.

c) Parallel to these information systems will be the knowledge management of : a) the dissemination (not collection) of early-warning climate related information to increase the resilience of forest dependent producers/farmers, as well as provide Government and civil society with key and timely climatic information; b) the sharing of restoration and NTFP value chain knowledge, information, lessons learnt to promote the discussion and exchange of adapatation and mitigation practises that could benefit producers, value chain actors and organizations implementing climate resilience and mitigation activities.

FAO has a great deal of experience globally in such dissemination and capacity development techniques, including institutional capacity development, well-established traditional farmers and pastoral field schools, educative field visits and exchanges between farmers/pastoralists through local livestock/village markets as a platform for dissemination, meetings and learning opportunities and use of locally adapted digital tools by farmers, south-south cooperation. Most of the above costs would be borne by country counterpart funding with only activities directly related to adaptation and mitigation co-financed by the GCF. Component 4: Project Management

A small regional project management unit would be set up by FAO with the PAAGGW to coordinate the implementation of the funding proposal across all 6 countries and implement the regional component. FAO will be both the Accredited Entity (AE) and the regional Executing Entity (EE), given the complexity of coordinating activities in six countries, including planning and budgeting, procurement, coordinating a number of regional and national entities, monitoring and impact evaluation, and capacity building. FAO has considerable experience in managing national and multi-country projects globally. In building up the PAAGGW’s capacities, some of the EE’s functions will be gradually assumed by the Agency or other agreed institutions, such as research centers and civil society organizations. At the national level, the PAAGGW’s national unit (Great Green Wall National agencies), line Ministries, civil society organizations, and the FAO country office would be part of a national Project Management Unit that will be responsible for the implementation of the country activities, of the monitoring and impact evaluation and build capacities from regional to communal levels. PMU costs, not exceeding 5% of total project costs, would be borne by GCF grant and, for its main part, by country counterpart funding. Rigorous qualitative and quantitative baseline impact surveys will be carried out to ensure that during project implementation, the following is made operational: a) monitoring systems of project activities (including a management information system) with input from the communities (auto-monitoring), and b) two detailed impact evaluations one and two thirds of the way through the project and at closure. Institutional arrangements. An added sustainability benefit of the project is that rather than create new institutions, only existing ones would act as partners to implement the project. See Component 4 for FAO’s role as accredited entity (AE) and executing entity (EE). Regional level implementing partners will include e.g., research agencies supplying native ecosystems species seeds, specialized VC technical assistance.10 At country level, the NDA Ministry – usually Forestry/natural resources or equivalent, unless otherwise decided by Government with FAO will be a co- Executing Entity. They will interact with other sectoral ministries, the national GGW agency, regional research institutes, service providers and NGOs who would act as implementing partners/service providers for on-the-ground actions under the overall technical support and coordination of FAO, represented nationally through its country offices. Although most regional partners institutions have been identified (see above), during formulation the national level partner institutions will be identified. The national agencies would be strengthened to be able to take on successively greater project implementation and coordination responsibilities in the future. Steering committees would be set up at the regional and national levels. Regionally, the committee would be made up of, among others, representatives of the African Union/GGW, key regional implementation partners, NDAs, and FAO. A similar structure would be set up nationally, with the FAO country office being represented. Means to represent the communities would be identified during project formulation, ensuring a strong representation of the

10 Examples of regional level implementing partners include the Forest Research Institute of Ghana (Component 1), the African Forestry Forum/CGIAR (Component 1), the Network for Natural Gums and Resins (Component 1 and 2), PAAGGW (Component 3).

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forest-dependent producers (farmers and pastoralists) most involved in the restoration process and value chains up-grading. Finally, national representation would also include the restoration/VC technician networks. National and regional experts and organizations, who will have been closely associated to the formulation of the FP will also play a major role during implementation As stated under B.1, one of the barriers to institutions taking on greater responsibilities to scale-up successful restoration experiences that create more resilient, low-emission rural populations, ecosystems and value chains, is the need to build up institutional capacities further through active co-management of project activities between FAO and other institutions. Finally, to support the implementation of the African Union’s long-term vision for the GGW, which no one project can implement given the scale involved, close relations will be maintained with other related on-going projects, such as GM-UNCCD, the World Bank-GEF SAWAP/Bricks project, IFAD, AfDB (Programme for Integrated Development and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Niger Basin), the Sudan Gum Arabic FAO project under preparation (this one to be co-financed by the GCF), and several bi-laterals, to share experiences, avoid duplication, and ensure the greatest possible joint impact in the Sahelian region. During formulation, an informal GGW coordination and community of practise group will be proposed to the various Governments and co-financiers, such as the above, who are active in the region. Describe in what way the Accredited Entity(ies) is well placed to undertake the planned activities and what will be the implementation arrangements with the executing entity(ies) and implementing partners.

FAO, a specialized technical agency of the United Nations, is well placed to undertake the planned activities:

1) It has approached the GGW concept as a paradigm shifter since its launch in 2007, given its potential for addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation, reducing poverty and boosting livelihoods. FAO is a key technical partner of the African Union and its member states, which have devised a clear and detailed approach and methodology for solutions in the Sahel (Harmonized Strategy, see above), and FAO will continue to play a key role of convener and facilitator, bringing countries and partners around the same table, as it continues to do world-wide. FAO has implemented a large number of climate adaptation and mitigation projects worldwide.

2) In the interest of effective realization of the GGW vision, from 2010 to 2013, with funding from the European Union, FAO supported the African Union Commission and AU member states as they prepared national climate strategies and action plans, including NAP, NAMAs and NDCs, developed a Regional Harmonized Strategy for GGW, created a community of practice, and mobilised partnerships. A major outcome was that all country action plans include large-scale restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral systems, which combine arable farming, livestock and tree-based production, as one of the highest priorities, which this project has adopted full-heartedly.

3) Of the many lessons learnt in landscape restoration and NTFP value chains as sources of livelihood, the FAO/EU-ACP co-funded project “Action Against Desertification” (AAD), provides the most relevant lessons learnt and is the basis of the considerably larger scaling-up proposed under this project – hence FAO’s role of implementer of proven solutions in the Sahel. It addresses policy, governance, social mobilization and the financial and technical capacity needs of relevant stakeholders in a holistic fashion. FAO sees a clear linkage between working to address the effects of climate change on the most vulnerable forest-dependent peoples and smallholders, while helping them build food security and strong livelihoods to move out of poverty. This approach is becoming a widespread model of implementation as evidenced by its fast adoption and implementation by hundreds of village communities in the cross-border area of Burkina, Niger and Mali, and other countries.

4) The AAD Project and FAO technical staff also helped addressed the dearth of land-use information for decision makers and sectoral planners in GGW countries, by building their capacity to use innovative and cost-effective land use assessment tools using the Open Foris Collect Earth tool, developed by FAO in partnership with Google Earth. Additionally, for more than a decade, FAO has unique experience in supporting Farmer Field Schools in some 30 African countries.

5) With this work, FAO has now designed a comprehensive approach for large-scale dryland restoration for GGW backed by the Global guidelines for the restoration of degraded forests and landscapes in drylands: building resilience and benefiting livelihoods. FAO will build on its ongoing partnerships - African Union Commission, Pan African Agency of the Great Green Wall, UNCCD, AfDB, UNEP, IFIs, regional research and other organizations and NGOs – to ensure proper coordination, experience exchange, avoid duplication and ensure the greatest possible impact in the Sahel. In summary, the five points above all confirm FAO’s vast and unique technical and organizational qualities and experience, well suited to manage this large multi-country project.

Financial and operational risks.

As summarized in the following table, there are a number of financial and operational risks that are important to take into consideration if the GGW project is to be successful. Lessons learnt from earlier projects, including the AAD, guide the identification and mitigation of risks.

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Risks and Mitigation Measures:

RISK MITIGATION MEASURES

Financial Risks

Government co-financing may be difficult to mobilize consistently. (substantial)

The project design takes a realistic approach to the expected Government co-financing, basing the amounts required on similar contributions for on-going projects. With multi-lateral (EU and others) funding expected, private sector investment in the Component 2 value chains including purchase agreements, and communities’ contributions in land, Government co-financing levels are considered reasonable.

Operational Risks

Will the farmers participate? (moderate)

As experience has shown under ADD, by providing a restored climate resilient landscape, livelihoods are improved sustainably. For these reasons, there is unmet demand from communities to join the AAD project.

Complexity of organizing a 6-country project (moderate)

Regional and national level organizations involved in the GGW, are participating in project formulation to ensure the political will, ownership and “getting it right” in each country. Multi-stakeholder/multi-country regional and national steering committees will ensure project policy oversight, while a FAO led regional coordination unit will ensure liaison and implementation at country level.

Regional and national institutions require strengthening to successfully implement the project (moderate)

Project formulation will include identification of support to the implementation, monitoring and evaluation and outreach of regional and national institutions central to project implementation. Capacity assessment and building programmes will be a priority of such support.

Conflict in project areas (substantial)

The two forms of conflict in the project areas are between farmers and herders, and from “terrorist” organizations. The project can help to reduce conflicts for the first , as the restored landscapes will provide among others, forage which is often sold to herders, thus reducing pressure on the natural resources, one of the main causes of conflict. For the second level of conflict, the AAD project area has managed to continue to operate in areas affected by terrorism, albeit at a lower level of activity.

B.3. Expected project results aligned with the GCF investment criteria (max. 3 pages)

Provide an estimate of the expected impacts aligned with the GCF investment criteria: impact potential, paradigm shift, sustainable development, needs of recipients, country ownership, and efficiency and effectiveness.

The multi-country project handily meets and supports the GCF’s six Investment Criteria, as described below:

1. Climate Impact Potential

GCF Core Indicators Mitigation and adaptation core indicators

Expected tonnes of CO2 equivalent to be reduced or avoided (mitigation only)

Annual 6.1 mn tonnes CO2 eq/ha/year from year 9 onwards from 1.0 mn restored dryland ha.

Lifetime 33 mn tonnes CO2 eq/ha cumulative increase in landscape carbon stocks in project 10 years; 94 mn tonnes cumulative at year 20.

Expected total number of direct and indirect beneficiaries, disaggregated by gender)

The total combined vulnerable small-scale producers – men and women - to benefit from the project in the 6 countries is approximately 250,000 million households x7/HH = 1.75 mn beneficiaries, of which approximately half are women (as per AAD).

Responding to the severe impacts of climate change on ecosystems and their service provision, as well as on the livelihoods of neighbouring forest-dependent communities, Component 1 will restore and enrich approximately 10,000-15,000 ha/country/year once the project is in full swing. Recent AAD studies collected data on three years old tree seedlings and extrapolating these data to 20 years, the CO2-equivalent sequestration concluded that 7.14 incremental tonnes of CO2 eq are sequestered from fully restored drylands, while 4.5 from enriched lands, both from year 4 onward. This mitigates a project total of 6.1 mn tonnes CO2 eq, from year 9 onwards (when 1.0 mn ha have been restored) for a grand total of 33 mn tonnes of CO2 eq. over 10 years.

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The restoration approach closely involves rural communities and their livelihoods, which are at the centre of the process as described before. Approximately 250,000 thousands households would be benefited (4 ha of restored land/household) x 7 of the average household = approximately 1.75 mn beneficiaries. Experience from the AAD project showed that approx. half are women. These figures will be further verified during formulation, and appropriate benchmarks in comparable contexts will be ascertained for drylands during project formulation and detailed in the project’s feasibility studies.

2. Paradigm Shift The project’s paradigm shift is to shift how rural communities, decision-makers in government and private sector finance, adopt and protect investments in restoring natural capital in the Sahel as the means to increase resilient ecosystems and livelihoods, lower emissions from land use, and act as a carbon sink. This will be done in support to the African Union’s longer-term vision and unwavering political support since 2007 of the GGW of the Sahel and Sahara Initiative, and coordinating with other on-going interventions that support it. The needs of the GGW far surpass any one project’s ability to deal with its many objectives, heightening the need for close coordination. This transformational shift will be achieved as per below. Innovation. The most significant Component of the project, the first - large-scale ecosystem restoration – was an innovation successfully implemented first as a 2,500 ha pilot. Based on that experience and from lessons learnt, the second, a FAO/EU-ACP AAD project described in B.1, refined and then scaled-up the methodology, which now provides a proven successful technology adopted by over 500 communities on over 53,000 ha. SURAGGWA will further scale-up those experiences to a considerably larger (over 10 times) geographic scale. What is more innovative in this project is no longer the now proven restoration technology, but rather two complementary areas that build on the methodology: a) their primary role in creating more profitable, equitable, gender- and youth-sensitive, sustainable and low emission NTFP value chains (VC), and the participation and investment of the private sector in upgrading these VCs (see B.2 Component 2 above). In the Ex-Act carbon accounting and financial VC analysis being carried out as part of project formulation, a more equitable business model would be introduced. All members/actors in the communities and in the private sector will work together to analyse the efficiency and equitable distribution of increased value-added benefits, lower emissions, identify points that add additional efficiency and value, and agree on means to increase benefits to all from a better coordinated and managed value chain business plan– a key element to sustainability beyond the project period. This will result in a fundamental and more equitable shift in the position of smallholder producers in the value chain, which in turn will constitute a major financial sustainability incentive for them to continue investing in management and maintenance of the restored ecosystems. A special focus, often overlooked, will be on women and youth empowerment and inclusiveness. This group is often the principle one who works in the NTFP sector: collecting, initial cleaning/processing, and often marketing as well, yet does not always have a say nor receive the benefits commensurate with their work. Youth often accompany the women and with increased sophistication of the VCs (e.g., increased processing, adding value along the chain), much needed additional jobs would be created. In addition, women and youth’s increased participation in decision-making and leadership would be promoted in both the restoration and the VC management committees. Potential for scaling-up and replication. This project proposes a ten+-fold scaling-up of the successful AAD restoration experience, adding financial sustainability as one of the main longer-term objectives. As mentioned before, the core area of the Great Green Wall encompasses 780 million hectares with 232 million people. There are 166 million hectares with inadequate vegetation cover. By promoting sustainable land management and climate resilient natural resource use within such a large area, and linking this to private sector investment to up-grade NTFP value chains, the programme will contribute to longer-term social and ecological resilience not only directly, but also, in the longer term, indirectly, through the revival of hydrological cycles, reducing the incidence and severity of drought – and thus reducing people’s exposure/vulnerability to climate change and shocks such as drought and flooding long into the future. This technology, the third time is would be scale-up, has already provided best practices for scaling up and has spread with beyond AAD intervention to other sites and countries. Potential for knowledge and learning. Knowledge management and learning is considered fundamental to ensure buy-in, adoption and sustainability beyond the project period, and all three components have prioritized knowledge sharing, and institutional capacity building. Components 1 and 2 in B.2 both have strong capacity building activities for restoration and value chain upgrading. Component 3 will carry out several specific activities aimed at sharing those and other regional experiences, including information platforms that promote discussion and share lessons learnt and new experiences, that reach from government officials, to civil society and communities. The community level restoration technicians will disseminate lessons learnt and other platforms will disseminate and promote discussions on climate early-warning, lessons learnt from similar projects and others. This knowledge exchange will be actively encouraged and promoted within and between countries and NTFP producer groups, with special focus on women, youth and private sector involvement. Contribution to the creation of an enabling environment. The project is fortunate in that a strong enabling environment exists: a strong political will since 2007 when the African Union approved the GGWSSI, creating as well

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regional and national GGW institutions. Additionally, the NAPs, NAMAs, and NDCs, and national environmental and climate strategies all contain restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes as key mitigation and resilience actions. At issue are the barriers to scaling-up successful restoration experiences on the ground have been discussed before (B.2). What enabling environment is required to ensure communities and the private sector have the proper incentives to buy-in and participate during and beyond the project period? Precisely the conditions the project would introduce at the community level: given widespread climate-induced poverty, financial incentives are perhaps the most immediate need of households/communities, which the more equitable NTFP VCs business model would provide (Component 2). In terms of financial sustainability, incorporating the private sector in the VCs up-grading for processing and marketing would vastly strengthen the enabling environment for both village level forest-dependent people as well as the other VC members. Additionally, the decreasing climate change-induced natural resource “health” of these landscapes is causing violent conflict, between pastoralists and farmers. As the restored areas contain large amounts of forage, often sold to the pastoralists, this has a strong conflict resolution effect. These are the factors that will ensure long-term and financially sustainable continuation of key activities and outcomes beyond the project period. Contribution to the regulatory framework and policies. As explained directly above, in creating an enabling environment, a number of incentives – financial, social, environmental are aligned to promote investment, even beyond the project period, in low-emission, carbon sequestering and climate resilient development. The sharing of experiences and information across the region, will also contribute to disseminating lessons learnt within the six project countries, including beyond them to the remaining five that form part of the GGWSSI. Finally, the project will make significant contributions to the implementation of all the countries’ national climate change policies and strategies including their NAMAs, NAPs and NDCs. Overall contribution to climate resilient development pathways. As the climate change resilient technologies and development methodologies employed have been tried now for the third time (Components 1 and 2 in B.2), each time better refined and increasing in scale, the risks to adoption are now much lower and more related to exogenous factors such as political stability, conflicts between pastoralists and farmers, both of which robust agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes would help to mitigate. As this moves from pilot to mainstream climate resilient development pathways, through this project and others, it has moved to a position of national development policy, within the African Union’s longer-term vision for the GGWSSI.

3. Sustainable Development Potential There are several factors that will ensure post-project climate resilient sustainability of the projects’ outcomes and co-benefits. First, two forms of financial sustainability in one of the world’s poorest region: a) promoting the up-grading of NTFP smallholder value chains, with significant private sector involvement will create economic, social and agro-ecological incentives for sustainable land, water, forest, drylands restoration and management (see Components 2 in B.2). b) other significant co-benefits which will also help to assure sustainability, are mentioned above (see Scaling-up, Enabling Environment). Social and economic co-benefits include increased resilience of livelihoods and food security of millions of rural dwellers. A pro-active gender- and youth-sensitive focus would be ensured to achieve greater equity and empowerment for these critical members of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscape restoration and value chains, both in terms of rightful returns to their labour as well as in representation within the community ecosystem and value chain management groups, and their leadership. Estimates of job creation will be made during formulation. Environmental co-benefits include biodiversity conservation and restoration, reduced land degradation and soil erosion, improving the hydrological cycle, and large amounts of carbon sequestered below and above the ground. Central to sustainability is the institutional capacity created: a) the project will strengthen the capacities of regional (e.g., Pan African Agency of the GGW, research institutes) and national institutions in terms of resource assessment, information analysis and dissemination, and management of large-scale investment projects. b) Undoubtedly, the most important factor to ensure sustainability beyond the project period, will be the strengthening of the capacities of local communities and private entrepreneurs to manage natural resources and invest in sustainable value chains. National institutions may be convinced of the virtues of such restoration technologies and methodologies, but if the communities don’t adapt and sustainably manage them, no progress will have been made, thus the large focus on capacity-building locally, nationally and regionally.

4. Needs of the recipient It would be difficult to find a region with greater need for climate change resilience, as confirmed by the IPCC (2014). The impacts of climate change (described in more detail in B.1) have been devastating to the region, causing increased poverty (20 mn food insecure), migration (1 mn displaced), inter-ethnic group conflict over depleting natural resources, and loss of ecosystems, vegetation and biodiversity. For this reason, the majority of the Great Green Wall countries have prioritized the Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) sector in their NDCs, both in terms of climate change adaptation and mitigation. As described before (B.1) they are also countries with high development support needs: five are Least Developed Countries (United Nations, 2019). In the climate vulnerability index and

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

16

readiness to improve resilience – the six countries rank between 180-131 out of 181 In the NDCs of the six countries, the calculated costs of adaptation and mitigation/country vary from USD 7 – 34 bn (excluding Nigeria which covers much larger non-dryland territory). The project will address the barriers to achieving greater resilience. The technologies and methodologies that communities support already exist, and there have been successful examples (FAO/EU AAD described above) implemented. One of the biggest barriers to increased scaling-up on a considerably larger scale is financial – to vastly expand what already works. Limited levels of funding do exist and have been deployed, but not in the scale the Sahel requires, nor described in the Harmonized Strategy, nor in the countries’ NDCs. The GCF, Governments, communities and VC private sector and other smaller co-financiers would provide the larger scale funding required. The second most important barrier is institutional. While the political will to support the GGW is very strong, both regionally and nationally, the institutional capacity to implement significantly larger restoration areas will require strengthening at the regional, national and local levels, all of which the project would concentrate significant resources to ensure. It is of primal importance to meet the needs of communities in terms of natural resource management to achieve post-project sustainability. Moving from limited availability of natural resources, conflicts with herders and others over their shrinking natural capital, to a position of new and restored communal level ecosystems provides them with resilient natural resources than can improve their incomes and livelihoods. Meeting these needs is the project’s principal objective.

5. Country Ownership After the terrible years of drought including rainless years in the 70’s and 80’s, the African Union developed and approved the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative in 2007, with FAO assistance. Regional and national level GGW institutions have been set up. The above described AAD FAO/EU-ACP project was successfully implemented in most of the project’s six countries, and they have now requested a considerably larger intervention/scaling-up this time. The NAPs, NAMA, and national climate strategies all mention agro-sylvo-pastoral landscape restoration as a means to meet the NDC goals. Burkina Faso, Chad, and Senegal are also in the process of including work on land use in their GCF Readiness activities. It would be difficult to find greater regional and country ownership. In addition to the above, for this project, stakeholder engagement has already begun during the AAD project when successes in the field engendered interest in a much larger scale-up project. More formally, in concert with the NDAs from the six West and Central Sahelian countries, and the regional and national GGW agencies/institutions, at the project inception stage all participated in a 50+ person strategic planning workshop. The project scope (one multi-country project), components (as described above), and preliminary discussions on institutional arrangements were covered. A wider and more detailed consultation process began after the workshop, regionally and at country level. Each country produced a draft GCF Concept Note at the workshop and they are now further detailing it, as part of the SURAGGWA formulation process. This will be an important means to further ensure country ownership and for clarifying country preferences, as well as providing information for the regional formulation team. A second workshop with the 64-member formulation team (including field enumerators) was held in February 2020 to confirm the climate and project rationale, coordinate work in the field and come up with joint programming of formulation. The team will continue consultations through qualitative and quantitative baseline surveys for impact evaluation, surveys for each of the NTFPs VCs, Ex-Act Analysis (carbon accounting) of the restoration and value chains, and regional research institutions carrying out the formulation process. 85-90% of the formulation work will be carried out by Sahelian regional and national persons/organizations. Finally, the considerable capacity and experience of the accredited entity (FAO) working with the national and regional institutions and on the ground for the last two+ decades, has been described above. A capacity needs assessment will be carried out during formulation to identify the specific needs of the institutions and communities, and develop a customized capacity building programme, both at institutional level, as well as at the communal level where most of the implementation will occur.

6. Efficiency and Effectiveness Based on the AAD project which is close to completion and is undergoing a detailed evaluation, as well as other donors’ projects such as the World Bank/GEF Bricks project, preliminary calculations show (see Impact Potential above) that 33 million tCO2 eq. mitigated/sequestered can be expected from 1.0 mn ha restored over the project’s 10 years, and over 1.75 mn vulnerable forest-dependent peoples in six countries would benefit from the project. The with- and without-project analyses that will be carried out will utilize the Ex-Act carbon accounting tool developed by FAO (presently utilized by a large number of IFIs and others). The restoration process and each of the most important NTFP will undergo this financial and carbon accounting and value chain analyses in the six countries. Value-added/financial returns from these products, for each actor in the chain, will also be detailed. All these analyses

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

17

will be aggregated up to determine more precisely overall the total tonnes of CO2 equivalent the project can mitigate above and below ground, and for the economic analysis. Once total project financing is determined, the cost/tCO2 eq. mitigated/sequestered will be calculated, but is preliminary calculated at USD 5/ton, with all project costs included.

This project is built on best practises from two former projects – pilot (2500 ha), large scale (AAD – 52,000 ha), and now this proposed ten+-fold greatly scaled-up project. Lessons have been learnt from these projects over the last decade, as well as from other non-FAO projects mentioned above, such as using traditional knowledge (restoration is based on the half-moon soil preparation technique); primary emphasis on developing community buy-in, management skills, and benefits from restoration as a requisite for adoption and sustainability; need to place the main actors at the forefront of all activities – in many cases these are majority women and youth. The programme has great potential for catalysing additional investment: e.g. value chain investments in non-timber forest products has been successful in the past in generating private sector and smallholder farmer investment. Ongoing projects in several countries, including lessons used in the formulation of a GCF co-financed project on Gum Arabic in Sudan, show an increase in smallholder investment in restoration once producers receive better prices for NTFP products.

B.4. Engagement among the NDA, AE, and/or other relevant stakeholders in the country (max ½ page)

Please describe how engagement among the NDA, AE and/or other relevant stakeholders in the country has taken place and what further engagement will be undertaken as the concept is developed into a funding proposal.

Even before the idea of this proposed FAO/GCF project was formalized, FAO has been actively supporting and developing the idea of the Great Green Wall programme concept, by liaising closely with regional and national authorities, the NDAs, partner stakeholders, as well as implementing regional and national projects, since 2007. In summary, and as described above, the chronology of FAO involvement has been consistent, pro-active, and innovative; a) supporting the African Union Heads of State develop the concept of the GGW, in particular in the rural AFOLU sector; b) supporting a number of African countries develop their NDCs plans and targets as submitted to the UNFCC, where the restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes plays a key role; c) various national level pilot initiatives in the AFOLU sector; d) assisting the preparation of the AU’s “Harmonized regional strategy for implementation of the Great Green Wall Initiative of the Sahara and the Sahel” and national GGW strategies and action plans for 13 GGW countries; e) implementation of the “Action Against Desertification” project, which covered 10 countries in the Sahel, and has begun the scaling-up of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes restoration methodologies and technologies proposed under the project; f) a collaborative workshop at the AfDB in 2017, with AU representation, the GGW regional and national coordinators, and the NDAs from Algeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Sudan to discuss a possible regional project; g) a 2019 planning and training workshop organized in August in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso with the above NDAs, GGW national agencies and other representatives and partners, with the 6 countries Sahelian countries that expressed the greatest interest in joining a GGW GCF co-financed project; and h) a workshop in February 2020, in Kumasi, Ghana with all the regional and several national partners assisting in the project formulation to review proposed project structure and components, and to jointly programme the project formulation work for 2020.

At the Burkina Faso workshop, the six countries NDAs and other national and regional representatives, agreed that one multi-country GCF co-financed project would be the most appropriate; they developed preliminary GCF national level concept notes; and since the workshop they have formed small project formulation teams to develop their national ideas further. These served as important and basic inputs into the work the regional formulation team of experts will carry out. These consultations and trainings, particularly with the NDAs, will be continued in the future, including various formulation workshops. In addition, the GCF was consulted at Project Idea Note stage to ensure proper criteria and direction of project formulation was being used. The GCF provided very positive informal feedback.

The African Union’s strong political will is most important for sustainability; but what about at the local/communal level? Hundreds of community level interviews and experiences have been accumulated in the AAD project which are serving as one of the sources of information on both technical and methodological inputs for project design. In addition, many hundred more interviews with stakeholders have already begun as part of the formulation process for qualitative and quantitative baseline impact evaluation surveys and NTFP value chains, and the carbon accounting and value chain analysis. These surveys are being “genderized” by a gender specialist to ensure satisfactory information is being collected to influence project formulation. The communities will also be consulted on what they consider the best organizational arrangements for implementing the project. Special analysis will be carried out by the environmental and social safeguards expert with stakeholders to ensure, among others, that minority groups’ views are expressed and incorporated into project formulation. Approximately 85-90% of project formulation will be carried out by regional and national experts, increasing further an already high level of engagement and country ownership.

C. Indicative Financing/Cost Information (max. 3 pages)

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18

C.1. Financing by components (max ½ page)

Please provide an estimate of the total cost per component/output and disaggregate by source of financing.

Component/Output Indicative cost

(USD mn)

GCF financing Co-financing

Amount

(USD mn)*

Financial Instrument

Amount

(USD mn)**

Financial Instrument

Name of Institutions

1. Large scale restoration activities for resilience and climate change mitigation

98 72 Grant 26 Counterpart

funding

6 Natl Govts through Mins. of Finance,

2. Reinforcing resilient smallholder value chains

45 30 Grant 15 Counterpart

Funding, purchase agreements

6 Natl Govts through Mins. of Finance, Network for Gums and Resins

3. Institutional strengthening and comprehensive GGW information systems

23 14 Grant 9 Counterpart

funding

6 Natl Govts through Mins. of Finance

4. Project Management

14 6 Grant 8 Counterpart

funding

6 Natl Govts through Mins. of Finance

Indicative total cost (USD)

180 122 mn Grant 58

N.B. At this stage, discussions with other potential co-financiers, in particular, the EU which co-financed the AAD project, are on-going. If they materialize, they will be used to reduce GCF contributions (in line with concessionality analysis).

* Total project cost 180/6 = USD 30/country. GCF: USD 122 mn for 6 countries = USD 20.3 mn /country.

** Countries approximate counterpart: on average, USD 8 mn/countries x 6 = USD 48 mn, or USD800,000/yr within counties financing possibilities. As to the private sector, it is still early to add definitive figures. However, even at this preliminary stage, purchase agreements are being explored for selected commodities such as gum Arabic to the tune of approximately 4 mn. Co-financing letters/purchase agreements/legalized documents are expected to be provided for all the above at the

Funding Proposal stage. Other sources of private sector finance for VC investment will be further defined as formulation proceeds.

C.2. Justification of GCF funding request (max. 1 page)

Explain why the Project/ Programme requires GCF funding, i.e. explaining why this is not financed by the public

and/ or private sector(s) of the country.

Would the private or public sectors finance the adaptation and mitigation activities of this project? As was mentioned before in Section B.1, most of the six countries are among the 5-6 poorest in the world, as measured by the UN Human Development and other indexes. Their climate resilience indexes are again among the lowest. The countries are highly indebted LDCs and do not have sufficient funds for these large upscaling interventions. The above is the situation at the national level. At the community level, in the Sahelian part of the six countries (200-600 mm precipitation/year), the farmers are also among the poorest in the world, and after four decades of devastating climate impacts and extreme weather events, their assets and livelihoods have declined in part because of human activity but most strongly because of climate change. Thus, from most any commercial financier’s point of view, these rural dwellers are not seen as creditworthy subjects to whom one they would be willing to extend credit. Their options are severely limited. Nonetheless, from a global perspective, they have the potential of providing vast mitigation benefits from the restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes and ecosystems, while increasing their own resilience to climate variability and change, thus improving their own livelihoods. They cannot do this on their own; the upfront costs are too high, and no financier would be willing to cover all the restoration costs for such relatively small financial returns, even if very significant to a poor Sahelian family and communities. These small returns have proven sufficient incentive for communities to ensure the protection and maintenance of their restored landscapes/ ecosystems and avoid the need to migrate to greater opportunities. The financial and economic analysis to be carried out during project formulation will detail these returns, both at the household and community level, as well as at the global level in terms of tCO2 eq. mitigation/sequestration, but from other similar smaller scale projects (e.g., AAD project), these benefits are proven to be substantial. Preliminary data is in Impact Potential above. The level of concessionaly is justified as follows: As described above, the financial precariousness of both the countries (mostly LDCs) and their communities, the low level of readiness to adapt to climate impacts, the high level

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

19

of country indebtedness, all make the beneficiaries strong candidate for significant concessionality. Coupled with this, the shallow national financial markets will not provide credit to community-managed landscape restoration projects, thus there is no crowding out of the private sector. However, the global/public goods produced are considerable, measured in the millions of tonnes of CO2 eq. thus making an important contribution to GCF’s goal of “making a significant and ambitious contribution to the global efforts of promoting the paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways.” In addition, among GCF’s mandate is “: 1) investments in critically vulnerable hotspots at imminent risk; 2) integration of climate change risks into long-term investment decisions”, both of which apply to the Sahel. Although there are financial returns to producers from the VCs, they are small, to be verified during formulation. However, to poor families in climate impacted regions, they can make the difference between remaining in their communities or migrating. Only the additional costs (additionality) of dealing with climate change induced impacts would be requested from the GCF. In the case of the Sahel, and reviewing the devastating effects of climate change in the last 40 years (section B.1.), the present state of natural resources and the agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes, certainly a high majority can be attributed to the climate, to be further determined during formulation. So too that same percentage will correspond to the size of the grant requested from the GCF, plus the costs of Component 3 which is strengthening the regional architecture of the GGW in the region and the information exchange networks.

C.3. Sustainability and replicability of the project (exit strategy) (max. 1 page)

Please explain how the project/programme sustainability will be ensured in the long run and how this will be monitored, after the project/programme is implemented with support from the GCF and other sources.

The sustainability and replicability of the project builds on the following major aspects. First, the involvement of private sector (local, national and international) to further develop value chains identified and supported by the project. As has been described in Component 2, the private sector will be a member of the individual NTFP VCs which will together develop their own business plans with project support. During formulation stage, private sector entities have already shown interest purchase agreements, so as to seize the business opportunity of increased production of higher quality NTFP to utilize their own funds to up-grade the processing and marketing side of the VC. Second, after this process, they will be able to continue to regularly meet with the VC committee without project support, review progress and adjust their business plan as necessary to ensure the structure and organization continues to benefit all, something that wasn’t done before. The project would promote that women and youth are promoted as members and leaders of the restoration and VC committees. This will be important to increase and perpetuate production of higher quality NTFP. Such funding can also be used to up-grade the processing and marketing side. Incentives for all members of the VC committees only increase over time as more and more of the NTFP come into production, from fodder in years 1-2, to the others (e.g., balanites, gum Arabic) from year 4 onward. The second sustainability aspect is capacity building of local communities, the development of technical networks in villages and increase where possible, their access to finance. With this enabeling environemnt, populations will be able to manage their natural capital assets, and benefit directly from their processing/ marketing, from more resilient and diverse sources of income, especially in the poorer and dryer climate years, when other sources of income (e.g., agriculture) can be reduced. In fact,, as experience has shown in the AAD project and others, a great deal of effort must and will be put into building up the capacity and social capital of the communities, while the ecosystems are restored. Two village level technicians who live there will provide support and assistance, and by forming networks of these technicians, they can exchange experiences, and help solve problems. After this, the communities will be in capacity to manage their new natural capital assets, which provides them with a considerably more resilient source of income, especially in the poorer climate years, when other sources of income (e.g., agriculture) can be significantly reduced. Finally, in Component 3, capacities will be built up to ensure even larger replicability of proposed actions and ensure financeable projects are prepared and funded. Through this component, the project will ensure strong ownership of the project by the main regional actors, who play a key role in the coordination of the GGW interventions and who will now have a sustainable model that could be replicated in other areas. While there are other project activities, the above are the most important to achieve long-term, post-project sustainability which the project’s paradigm shift aims to achieve. Additional co-benefits would be the strengthened national and regional institutional capacity of the institutions/organizations that will implement this considerably larger scale project, and progress in meeting the six countries’ NDCs. Progress will be monitored closely once project implementation has begun by the project and participating communities. Qualitative and quantitative impact assessment baseline surveys have already begun as part of project formulation, as well as Ex-Act surveys for each NTFP value chain. The rigorous qualitative and quantitative surveys will ensure that an appropriate baseline exists on which to monitor progress, including mid-term reviews (as it is 10 years, there will most likely be two), and a post-project impact evaluation. If the project, like the smaller scale ones before it, are successful, similar projects are already being requested in neighbouring countries to expand restoration

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

20

in these lands of extreme and urgent needs. FAO would actively support such national aspirations as part of the GGW umbrella framework, which the PAAGGW, having received more capacity building and hands on experience, could help to further develop. Finally, during formulation, the possibility of participating in carbon markets will be explored, which would also ensure a close monitoring of restored areas. This proposal is part of the FAO’s GGW programmatic approach and is developed as a contribution that will benefit other GGW countries for which there is already demand as mentioned above. Its outcomes, specifically lands restored and capacity of communities strengthened for sustainable land management and for producing and processing NTFP and mobilizing seeds of native species, are to be used as a model for sustainability and resilience for, as an example, the whole Network of Gum Arabic and Resins in Africa (NGARA), including the outcomes of the GAMS project in Sudan. Such models will then be replicated in GGW area to keep working on the restoration of degraded lands.

D. supporting documents submitted (OPTIONAL)

☒ Map indicating the location of the project/programme

☒ Diagram of the theory of change

☐ Economic and financial model with key assumptions and potential stressed scenarios

☐ Pre-feasibility study

☐ Evaluation report of previous project

☐ Results of environmental and social risk screening

Self-awareness check boxes

Are you aware that the full Funding Proposal and Annexes will require these documents? Yes ☒ No ☐

• Feasibility Study

• Environmental and social impact assessment or environmental and social management framework

• Stakeholder consultations at national and project level implementation including with indigenous

people if relevant

• Gender assessment and action plan

• Operations and maintenance plan if relevant

• Loan or grant operation manual as appropriate

Co-financing commitment letters

Are you aware that a funding proposal from an accredited entity without a signed AMA will be reviewed but

not sent to the Board for consideration? Yes ☒ No ☐

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

21

Annex 1 - DIAGRAM OF THE THEORY OF CHANGE

PA

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PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

22

Annex 2 – Partners supporting the SURAGGWA project formulation

This annex provides information summary on five FAO’s main partners supporting the project formulation with

data and information in their respective areas of competence. These sets of data are of high importance for

SURAGGWA formulation and are needed to develop the full funding proposal together with a detailed feasibility

study.

I. The Forestry Research Institute of Ghana FORIG will support the formulation of component 1 “Implement large-scale ecosystem restoration activities for

climate change resilience and mitigation through plant-based solutions and increase of biomass and land

productivity, with and by local communities”. The LoA aims at achieving the following:

i. Assess the current capacities of national seed centres, including analysing challenges for large scale

restoration,

ii. Identify actions to scale-up production of agreed native species seeds to restore agro-sylvo-pastoral

landscapes,

iii. Map and assess the seed sources (forest stands/ seed orchards in the countries) in terms of production,

productivity, age, health, being it managed by seed centers, forestry departments, communities, or the

private sector,

iv. Identify and propose actions that the project can carry out to upgrade the value chains as above in each

country, increase capacities of suppliers, and how to engage all private sector members of the value

chains in order to ensure an equitable sharing of benefits from the upgrading.

To achieve these objectives, a set of four activites have been proposed:

- Conduct baseline studies on the capacity of FORIG and other seeds’ centres to mobilize seeds and

seedlings of selected native species for dryland restoration,

- Based on the above, identify and describe interventions and investments needed to scale-up the

capacity of seeds’ centres to restore agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes based on results of analysis

undertaken,

- Conduct appropriate data collection to appraise the impact of these native plant species seed and

seedling value chains (current situation and upgrading scenario) using FAO EX-ACT tool (e.g., carbon

footprint, social and economic impact),

- With gender specialist, collect value chain information (disagregated by gender) specifically designed

to help prepare the Gender Assessment and Action Plan annex required by the GCF.

Finally, awaited outputs of this LoA are:

a) A methodological note with methodology, bibliography and documents collected to develop the analysis,

b) A report analyzing scaling-up opportunities for native plant species germplasm mobilization,

strengthening of capacities and coordination of seeds’ centres and suppliers for dryland restoration,

c) Another report with additional analysis on how to strengthen native plant species germplasm value

chains to ensure greater profitability, equity in the distribution of benefits, private sector involvement,

gender sensitivity and resilience,

d) National, regional workshops and reports defining strategy to be used to formulate the component and

validate results,

e) Contributions to GCF concept note and funding proposal.

II. The Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research

Organization KALRO will support the formulation of component 1 by preparing a value chain investment proposal to improve

degraded landscape through ecosystem restoration using selected legume fodder species. The value chain will

be more equitable, resilient, constituting and providing incentive for producers to engage in rangeland

restoration. The specific objectives are:

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i. Identify the means to scale-up production of legume seed to improve fodder production and thus

enhance restoring actions of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes. This is to be accomplished by supporting

a more equitable, resilient, and low-carbon value chain,

ii. Carry out a literature review of research on past and on-going interventions adressing above issues

with emphasis on lessons learnt,

iii. Identify and propose actions that help upgrade the value-chains, ensuring an equitable sharing of

benefits and engaging the private sector.

To achieve these objectives, a set of four activites have been proposed:

- Develop a questionnaire on the capacity of KALRO to mobilize germplasms, sharing it with the six

countries,

- Collect data to appraise impacts of this legume value chain (current situation and upgrading situation)

using FAO EX-ACT tool. These data should cover costs and benefits to stakeholders, information on all

value chain members,

- Conduct regional workshops on rangeland restoration issues,

- Reponses to any queries about the project.

Finally, awaited outputs of this LoA are:

a) A report to formulate the component on scaling-up legume germplasm mobilization for re-vegetation of

degraded rangelands, including ten to fifteen principle species as well as species’ establishment in

larger restoration areas in the six countries,

b) Additional analysis on the above on how to strenghten the legume germplasm value chain in order to

ensure greater profitability and equity for all with private sector involvement,

c) National and regional workshops defining the strategy to be used to formulate the component and

validate results,

d) Contributions to GCF concept note and funding proposal.

III. The African Forest Forum AFF will support in the formulation of component 2 “Promote and develop sustainable, low emissions, equitable

commodity value chains contributing to forest conservation and sustainable management and to reducing

emissions driven by land-use change” by producing a non-timber forest product (NTFP) value chain analysis.

Specific objectives are:

i. Identify NTFP value chains that are more equitable, resilient, reduce emissions and provide a strong

incentive for smallholder producers and other value chains actors to engage in restoration actions of

agro-sylvo-pastoral systems. Thus, climate change adaptation and mitigation will be positively affected

by the reduction of GHG emissions in value chains and production of higher benefits provided to

involved communities,

ii. Carry out a literature review of research on past and on-going interventions adressing above issues

with emphasis on lessons learnt,

iii. Identify and propose actions the project can carry out to upgrade the identified value chains, engaging

the private sector and ensuring an equitable sharing of benefits.

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

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To achieve these objectives, a set of four activites have been proposed:

- Data collection surveys with key NTFP producers, processors and buyers to assess constraints and

opportunities for market growth,

- Comprehensive analysis of three to five major NTFP value chains in each country/project area,

- Analysis of potential for smallholders to derive increased income from these upgraded value chains,

- Analysis of recently completed, ongoing studies and interventions focusing on the selected NTFP value

chains.

Finally, awaited outputs of this LoA are:

a) A methodological note with organization of missions, preselected value chains that will be addressed in

the report, the type of analysis to be carried out and data to be gathered,

b) Six national level reports on NTFP published for the GGW area in each country,

c) One regional report that summarizes national level analysis and recommendations,

d) Seven national inception workshops,

e) Three national workshops, one regional to share findings,

f) Contributions to GCF concept note and funding proposal.

IV. The Network for Natural Gums and Resins in Africa NGARA will also contribute to the formulation of component 2 by working specifically on the gum value chain.

Goals of studies are to:

i. Develop sustainable pathways for the gum sector at regional and country level by focusing on the

provision of required stocktacking, technical studies and analysis,

ii. Support the development of a FAO-NGARA collaborative programme.

To achieve these objectives, a set of six activites have been proposed:

- Regional and country level stocktacking and review of existing information on the status of production,

processing, quality, quality control, markets and trade,

- Capacity assessment of gum sector actors,

- Analysis of needs and opportunities for the business sector perspective,

- Mapping and review of programmes, projects, and activities of key actors involved,

- Review of existing national policies, strategies and institutional frameworks,

- Support organization of meetings, consultations, workshops and partnerships events.

Awaited outputs of this LoA are:

a) A report on status of production and trade of gum Arabic with annexes including maps, tables, database

of stakeholders, for each country at regional level,

b) Another report on strenghtening relevant institutional framework at country level with proper multi-

sectoral coordination,

c) A market analysis with business sector perspectives,

d) Reports of meetings and workshops.

V. The Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall PAGGW will support the preparation of component 3 “Build multi-stakeholder regional information-sharing

platforms” by informing on climate hazards and overall climate change impacts through collection and analysis

of early-warning climate related information, disseminating lessons learnt on successful mitigation and

adaptation experiences in the region to allow for greater exchange of best practices. Specific objectives of the

LoA are to:

i. Undertake baseline studies and capacity assessment at regional level for the six countries in terms of

assessing existing capacities and identifying gaps, strategies, interventions and their costing to support

scaling up dissemination and adoption of climate actions,

PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND

25

ii. Carry out a literature review of research on past and on-going interventions in support of capacity

development, sharing information addressing the above issues, with particular emphasis on lessons

learnt,

iii. Identify and propose startegies, approaches, tools and actions the project can carry out to scale up

dissemination and adoption of climate actions.

To achieve these objectives, a set of three activites have been proposed to the partner:

- Carry out the baseline studies, capacity assessments, and proposed project component 3 investments,

fully costed,

- Organize seven workshops (six at country level and one at regional level),

- Undertake visits and field missions to the six Sahelian GGW countries as required to collect the

information, write the reports, and hold the workshops.

Finally, awaited outputs of this LoA are:

a) A methodological note describing the approach, methodology, stakeholders to be involved and data to

be gathered to develop baseline studies, capacity assessments and scaling-up of climate actions’

dissemination,

b) Literature review on past and on-going interventions in support of capacity development and sharing of

information and lessons learned,

c) Seven diagnosis reports that compile data, analysis, and findings in terms of assessing existing

capacities and opportunities of scaling up dissemination of climate actions,

d) A draft regional report describing strategies, activities, tools, and investments at regional and national

level needed to address gaps for scaling-up dissemination of climate information,

e) Six national workshops and a regional one,

f) A final report summarizing all recommendations from the seven workshops and draft reports. The report

aims at creating a readily accessible network which provides all actors with climate data. Stakeholders

will be given the tools to use information and knowledge made available online, therefore enabling them

to achieve greater resilience,

g) Contributions to GCF concept note and funding proposal.