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Well positioned to outperform peers SBILIFE reported a strong 14% growth in GWP primarily driven by
strong renewal collections (~30% YoY) which made up 60% of total premiums collected. Although APE fall was 31% YoY, NBP decline was minimal at 3% YoY highlighting the strong franchise and ability to outperform industry in adverse market conditions.
Performance in Individual Protection, however, was weaker than peers (-36% YoY) primarily due to reduced agency performance (-31% APE YoY). Despite the muted credit growth environment, SBILIFE saw only a 10% decline in group protection as it was able to sell to existing home loan customers of SBI bank.
Non-par portfolio continued to show momentum, growing 28% QoQ, with customers preferring guaranteed products which were offered at higher IRRs due to the company’s inability to re-price.
Product mix between savings and protection stayed constant sequentially resulting in a 6.2% YoY increase in VNB margin. Thi increase was offset by lower risk free rate to the tune of 4.2% resulting in a VNB margin of 18.7%.
We initiate on SBILIFE with a BUY at a target price of Rs. 1197 implying a FY21 P/EV of 4.0x and RoEV of 15.7%.
Premium collection trends indicate strong performance going forward Countrywide lockdown in April affected SBILIFE’s premium collection by ~30-36% in Q1FY21 resulting in sharp decline in APE YoY. However, May and June saw a much better uptick in premium collection for both retail and group business. This momentum has carried on for July and the management feels confident on being able to deliver a marginal topline growth for FY21 with protection being the key focus area. SBILIFE will be less affected by ULIP withdrawals as compared to peers as the portion of debt linked products are higher compared to peers.
Cost ratios remain best in class SBILIFE has industry leading commission and opex ratios (3.1% / 7% in Q1FY21) enabling it to underwrite at higher margin than peers. We believe the cost advantage allows SBILIFE to price products more attractively than competitors resulting in incremental market share growth to ~23.8% on NBP basis in Q1FY21.
Q1FY21 Result (Rs Mn)
Particulars Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY (%) Q4FY20 QoQ (%)
Premium Gross written premium (GWP) 76,434 66,944 14.2 119,372 (36.0)
New business premium (NBP) 30,586 31,545 (3.0) 38,054 (19.6)
Annual premium equivalent (APE)
12,700 18,600 (31.7) 26,900 (52.8)
-Savings 11,100 16,500 (32.7) 23,700 (53.2)
-Protection 1,600 2,100 (23.8) 3,200 (50.0)
Expenses
Management Expenses 7,714 7,474 3.2 11,799 (34.6)
Cost ratio (Cost/TWRP) 13.3 14.2 0.9 11.1 (2.2)
Commission ratio (%) 3.1 3.7 0.7 4.0 1.0
Operating expense ratio (%) 7.0 7.4 0.4 5.9 (1.2)
Profitability
Value of new business (VNB) 2,370 3,320 (28.6) 5,400 (56.1)
VNB margin (%) 18.7 17.8 0.8 20.1 (1.4)
CMP Rs 859
Target / Upside Rs 1,197 /39%
BSE Sensex 37,872
NSE Nifty 11,133
Scrip Details
Equity / FV Rs 10,000mn / Rs 10
Market Cap Rs 860bn
US$ 11.6bn
52-week High/Low Rs 1,030/Rs 519
Avg. Volume (no) 1,560,841
NSE Symbol SBILIFE
Bloomberg Code SBILIFE IN
Shareholding Pattern Jun'20(%)
Promoters 60.7
MF/Banks/FIs 7.0
FIIs 27.8
Public / Others 4.5
Valuation (x)
FY20A FY21E FY22E
P/EV 3.1 2.9 2.5
VNB Margin 18.7 19.8 19.9
ROEV (%) 20.5 15.7 16.8
NBP multiple - 53.4 45.3
Estimates (Rs mn)
FY20A FY21E FY22E
APE 107,400 85,267 109,036
VNB 20,100 16,870 21,674
EV 230,300 256,099 292,018
EVOP 45,900 41,249 49,765
Analyst: Prithvish Uppal Tel: +91 9899900146
E-mail: [email protected]
VP Research: Mona Khetan
Tel: +91 22 40969762
E-mail: [email protected]
Associate: Shreesh Chandra Tel: +91 22 40969714
E-mail: [email protected]
SBI Life Insurance Company
Buy
July 22, 2020
July 22, 2020 2
Other highlights SBILIFE has filed for a revised term protection product which will be priced lower than some competitors given the price elasticity in policyholder behavior across its distribution channels. This revised product, which is likely to be launched by end August, will result in lower protection margins. However, absolute VNB is expected to increase through higher volumes due to the attractive pricing. The Non-par business witnessed a strong ~28% growth QoQ mainly due to the annuity and guaranteed business. The product was highly attractive as it was priced at higher interest rates due to the lag in re-pricing. The re-priced product was launched in the early part of June and the gap in re-pricing affected the margins on this business. SBILIFE was able to sell its credit protect portfolio to existing SBI home loan customers and expects growth in the group credit protect business to be driven largely by untapped existing customers of the bank. With the lockdown easing in several parts of the country, the agency channel will also start contributing to top-line and will be used to sell a large portion of the individual protection business.
Valuation We initiate coverage on SBILIFE with a ‘BUY’ rating and a 1-year price target of Rs1197 implying a P/EV multiple of 3.5x on the FY22E EV per share. Our valuation is based on the DCF methodology using a cost of equity 11.5%, assuming APE growth dovetails to 5% over a 20-year period from FY24 onwards and a steady state protection mix at 18%. SBILIFE has an unrivalled distribution reach through its parent and has penetrated a meager 2-3% of this channel. SBILIFE also has the above industry average agent productivity and its focus on growing this channel over the last 2 years will help consolidate its position as the number 1 private life insurer in India on a NBP basis. Although we expect a slower VNB margin expansion, we believe SBILIFE is well positioned to deliver on topline growth and is attractively priced at current levels. Risks to our view: Slower penetration in the SBI channel, in ability to effectively manage guaranteed portfolio
Valuation driven largely by VNB growth
Particulars (Rs.mn.) FY21E % of AV
Structural value 900,472 75.2
-PV of VNB 372,505 31.1
-PV of Terminal value 527,967 44.1
Embedded value 296,534 24.8
Appraisal value 1,197,006 100.0
Source: Company, DART
Any incremental gain in protection will drive valuations further
Particulars (Rs.mn.) FY21E
Embedded value 296,534
Structural value 900,472
-Savings business 409,701
-Protection business 490,771
Appraisal value 1,197,006
Source: Company, DART
July 22, 2020 3
Movement in Embedded value
Particulars (Rs mn) FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
Opening EV 190,700 224,000 262,900 296,534
Unwind 17,200 20,100 23,591 26,609
VNB 16,200 19,000 16,870 21,674
Operating variances 800 5,600 789 1,483
EV Operating Profit 33,200 45,900 41,249 49,765
Economic variances 2,500 (7,100) 0 0
Capital injections/outflow 2,400 0 (7,616) (8,231)
Closing EV 224,000 262,900 296,534 338,067
EV growth (%) 17.5 17.4 12.8 14.0
RoEV (%) 17.4 20.5 15.7 16.8
Source: Company, DART
Target price sensitivity to changing mix and growth assumptions
Steady state protection mix
1,197 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0
Terminal APE growth
3.5 964 990 1,017 1,043 1,070 1,097 1,123 1,150 1,176 3.8 979 1,006 1,033 1,061 1,088 1,115 1,142 1,170 1,197 4.0 995 1,023 1,051 1,079 1,107 1,135 1,163 1,191 1,219 4.3 1,013 1,041 1,070 1,099 1,127 1,156 1,185 1,213 1,242 4.5 1,031 1,061 1,090 1,119 1,149 1,178 1,208 1,237 1,267 4.8 1,051 1,081 1,111 1,142 1,172 1,202 1,233 1,263 1,293 5.0 1,072 1,103 1,135 1,166 1,197 1,228 1,259 1,291 1,322 5.3 1,095 1,127 1,159 1,192 1,224 1,256 1,288 1,320 1,352 5.5 1,120 1,153 1,186 1,220 1,253 1,286 1,319 1,352 1,386 5.8 1,147 1,181 1,216 1,250 1,284 1,319 1,353 1,387 1,422 6.0 1,176 1,212 1,247 1,283 1,318 1,354 1,390 1,425 1,461 6.3 1,208 1,245 1,282 1,319 1,356 1,393 1,430 1,467 1,504 6.5 1,243 1,282 1,320 1,358 1,397 1,435 1,474 1,512 1,551
Source: Company, DART
Business mix has largely been constance
Source: Company, DART
0%
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1Q
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3Q
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4Q
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Protection ULIP Par Non-par Group
July 22, 2020 4
Access to unrivalled distribution gives SBILIFE a huge advantage
Source: Company, DART
SBILIFE has consistently ranked as the largest private player (overall NBP) – 1QFY21
Source: Company, DART
Cost ratios remain best amongst peers enabling SBILIFE to underwrite higher margin business
Source: Company, DART
9175
4306
7880
4882 23825214
35133
11579
34917
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AB
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HD
FCLI
FE
IPR
U
KO
TAK
LIFE
MA
XFS
SBIL
IFE
TA
TA
AIA LIC
Branch access Number of partners
SBI Life23.9
HDFC Standard20.7ICICI Prudential
11.7Aditya Birla
Sunlife7.2
Max Life7.0
Bajaj All ianz5.8
Tata AIA5.6
Kotak Mahindra4.4
Others13.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
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FY1
8
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FY1
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FY1
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FY2
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1
Commission ratio Opex ratio
July 22, 2020 5
Concall highlights
Channel performance
o Agency channel will see pickup going forward with protection being the main focus
o Total number of active agents exceeds 137,000
o Business through Yona app in Q1FY21 exceeded FY20 with over 196,000 lives underwritten
Growth
o The management is targeting a marginal YoY growth in FY21
o Individual protection will be a key driver for growth
Protection
o ~60% of protection NBP came in June for Q1FY21
o Return on premium variant was 80-85% of the retail protection mix. Pure protection variant will be in greater focus going forward
o Existing SBI home loan customers who do not have a credit protect policy will be a key focus area
VNB margin decline was led by lower risk free rate and change in reinsurance rate
Reinsurance pricing
o A portion of reinsurance price hike will be passed onto customers with the company looking to price products more attractively to grow volumes in the protection segment
o Expect margins to squeeze slightly as a result
Non-par guarantee
o The product may lose attractiveness in a lower interest rate environment
o The back book is currently hedged through partly paid bonds of AAA rated corporates offering higher yields
o The management does not see any systemic issue in this portfolio
o Will be cautious on growing this book going forward
July 22, 2020 6
Key Performance Indicators
Premiums FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
New Business Premium 137,920 165,925 163,752 207,053
-Protection NBP 16,400 20,800 24,563 37,270
-Savings NBP 121,520 145,125 139,189 169,784
Protection NBP mix (%) 11.9 12.5 15.0 18.0
Savings NBP mix (%) 88.1 87.5 85.0 82.0
Protection growth (%) 173.3 26.8 18.1 51.7
Savings growth (%) 17.2 19.4 -4.1 22.0
APE 97,000 107,400 85,267 109,036
Protection 6,600 9,600 12,989 16,355
-Individual protection 3,700 5,100 5,711 7,360
-Group protection 2,900 4,500 7,278 8,995
Savings 90,400 97,800 72,278 92,681
-Individual Savings 87,200 93,800 62,059 88,047
--ULIP 68,600 74,800 40,955 64,877
--Par 18,200 11,600 9,647 13,902
--Non-Par 400 7,400 11,457 9,268
-Group savings 3,200 4,000 10,219 4,634
Protection APE mix (%) 6.8 8.9 15.2 15.0
Savings APE mix (%) 93.2 91.1 84.8 85.0
Protection APE growth (%) 43.5 45.5 35.3 25.9
Savings APE growth (%) 11.9 8.2 -26.1 28.2
Overall business mix APE basis (%)
ULIP 70.7 69.6 48.0 59.5
Par 18.8 10.8 11.3 12.8
Non-par 0.4 6.9 13.4 8.5
Protection 6.8 8.9 15.2 15.0
Group savings 3.3 3.7 12.0 4.3
Source: Company, DART
Expense ratios
Expense ratios (%) FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
Commission ratio 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.6
First year commission 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.6
Renewal premium commission 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Single premium commission 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4
Operating expense ratio 6.4 6.0 6.2 6.1
Management expense ratio 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.7
Cost to TWRP 12.2 11.8 11.3 11.4
Source: Company, DART
July 22, 2020 7
Embedded Value movement
Embedded Value FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
Opening EV 190,700 224,000 262,900 296,534
Unwind 17,200 20,100 23,591 26,609
VNB 16,200 19,000 16,870 21,674
Operating variances 800 5,600 789 1,483
EV Operating Profit 33,200 45,900 41,249 49,765
Economic variances 2,500 (7,100) 0 0
Capital injections/outflow 2,400 0 (7,616) (8,231)
Closing EV 224,000 262,900 296,534 338,067
EV growth (%) 17.5 17.4 12.8 14.0
RoEV (%) 17.4 20.5 15.7 16.8
Breakup of RoEV (%)
Unwind 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
VNB 8.5 8.5 6.4 7.3
Operating variances 0.4 2.5 0.3 0.5
RoEV walk (%)
Opening 18.0 17.4 20.5 15.7
Unwind 0.6 -0.0 0.0 0.0
VNB -0.0 -0.0 -2.1 0.9
Operating variances -0.5 2.1 -2.2 0.2
Closing 18.0 19.4 16.2 16.8
Source: Company, DART
Profitability
Value of new business FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
VNB 17,200 20,100 16,870 21,674
VNB growth 23.7 16.9 -16.1 28.5
VNB margin 17.7 18.7 19.8 19.9
Source: Company, DART
July 22, 2020 8
Profit and Loss Account
Particulars (Rs mn) FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
Premium earned 329,894 406,347 439,095 502,406
Premium on reinsurance (991) (3,107) (2,878) (2,837)
Net premium earned 328,904 403,240 436,217 499,569
Investment income 116,018 33,417 157,487 148,269
Other income 769 526 450 502
Total income 445,690 437,183 594,154 648,340
Commission paid 13,464 15,921 15,103 17,955
Expenses 26,075 30,481 31,619 34,560
Tax on policyholders fund 2,687 3,767 4,223 2,514
Claims/benefits paid 152,938 162,509 172,662 199,828
Change in actuarial liability 236,799 210,369 354,132 375,485
Total Outgo 431,962 423,047 577,739 630,342
Profit before tax 13,729 14,136 16,415 17,998
Tax charge 461 (86) 595 900
Profit after tax 13,268 14,222 15,820 17,098
Balance Sheet
Particulars (Rs mn) FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
Share capital 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Reserve and surplus 64,601 78,839 102,274 127,604
Credit/[debit] fair value change account 1,162 (1,408) 361 361
Shareholders' funds 75,764 87,431 112,636 137,965
Borrowings 0 0 0 0
Credit/(debit) fair value change account 10,564 (15,872) (1,424) (1,424) Revaluation reserve - Investment property 0 0 0 0
Total insurance reserves 1,340,835 1,546,883 1,892,302 2,260,555
Funds for future appropriations 2,816 7,137 15,850 23,082
Total 1,429,978 1,625,579 2,019,365 2,420,179
Application of funds
Assets under management 1,393,247 1,588,132 1,999,794 2,374,471
Shareholders’ 57,232 68,280 85,773 104,257
Policyholders’ 644,724 734,199 916,624 1,114,061
Asset held to cover linked liabilities 691,291 785,653 978,894 1,167,296
Other assets 36,731 37,447 38,074 34,564
TOTAL 1,429,978 1,625,579 2,037,868 2,409,035
E-Estimates
July 22, 2020 9
Key ratios
Particulars FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E
APE growth (%) 13.6 10.7 (20.6) 27.9
Savings APE growth (%) 11.9 8.2 (26.1) 28.2
Protection APE growth (%) 43.5 45.5 35.3 25.9
Business mix (APE basis) %
ULIP 70.7 69.6 48.0 59.5
Par 18.8 10.8 11.3 12.8
Non-par 0.4 6.9 13.4 8.5
Protection 6.8 8.9 15.2 15.0
Commission ratio 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.6
First year commission 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.6
Renewal premium commission 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Single premium commission 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4
Operating expense ratio 6.4 6.0 6.2 6.1
Management expense ratio 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.7
Cost to TWRP 12.2 11.8 11.3 11.4 Op profit before reserves and benefits % reserves 36.9 29.7 35.2 31.3
VNB 17,200 20,100 16,870 21,674
VNB growth 23.7 16.9 (16.1) 28.5
VNB margin 17.7 18.7 19.8 19.9
RoEV 17.4 20.5 15.7 16.8
Source: DART
DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%
DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747
Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities [email protected] +9122 4096 9745
CONTACT DETAILS
Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines
Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9709
Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9735
Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9772
Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9779
Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9725
Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9740
Pooja Soni Manager - Institutional Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9700
Equity Trading Designation E-mail
P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9728
Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9707
Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9702
Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9715
Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9765
Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist [email protected] +9122 4096 9705
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