saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis ... · PDF file1. status qvo im miRwevebis paralelurad, rac saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi omamdel viTarebaSi aSkarad SeiniSneboda da dResac

saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi

1

Sesavali ..........................................................................................................................................................................2

1. status qvo .................................................................................................................................................................2

2. savaWro brunva _ 2006-2007 ......................................................................................................................................4

3. savaWro brunva - 2008 ...............................................................................................................................................5

4. problemis arsi ..........................................................................................................................................................7

5. siRaribis done ..........................................................................................................................................................8

6. saSualovadiani riski ..............................................................................................................................................10

7. postsaomari suraTi................................................................................................................................................11

8. vaWrobis sikeTe .......................................................................................................................................................12

9. saqarTvelos adgili ...............................................................................................................................................13

10. saimedo statistikis molodinSi .........................................................................................................................19

11. samrewvelo evolucia ...........................................................................................................................................20

12. seqtoruli rentgeni .............................................................................................................................................21

13. `dieturi~ investireba ..........................................................................................................................................23

14. dakreditebis zigzagebi ........................................................................................................................................24

15. sabanko wnexi...........................................................................................................................................................26

16. kvanZis gasakveTad .................................................................................................................................................28

17. daskvnebi .................................................................................................................................................................29

18. rekomendaciebi ......................................................................................................................................................31

sarCevi


2

1 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos, SvedeTis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebisa da TanamSromlobis saagentosa da

evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis mxardaWeriT, ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis centri siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi saqarTvelos savaWro po-

litikis monitorings axorcielebs. proeqtis farglebSi momzadebuli angariSis Sinaarsze pasuxismgebelia mxolod ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis

centri. SesaZlebelia centris Sexedulebebi ar emTxveodes evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis, amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis ganviTarebis saagen-

tosa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis mTavrobis Sexedulebebs.

Sesavali

ekonomikuri politikis kvlevis centrma evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis finansuri mxardaWeriT,1

proeqtis - `saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi~ ganxorciele-

ba 2008 wlis martidan daiwyo. proeqtis farglebSi centrma Seiswavla da gaanaliza saqarTvelos savaWro

saldos 2007 wlisa da 2008 wlis 10 Tvis dinamika, misi gavlena qveyanaSi mimdinare ekonomikur procesebze,

gansakuTrebiT siRaribis donis Semcirebis konteqstSi.

saqarTvelos savaWro saldos dinamika da misi gavlena ekonomikur procesebze qveynis ekonomikaSi arse-

buli mdgomareobis da mimdinare procesebis diagnositirebis erT-erTi meqanizmia.

dRes TvalsaCinoa, rom qveynis uaryofiTi savaWro saldo kvlavac Seuqcevadad izrdeba da ekonomikas

importze maRali xarisxiT damokidebuls xdis, rac imis maniSnebelia, rom ar xdeba qveynis ekonomikis

adgilobriv bazarze da eqsportze orientirebuli seqtorebis ganviTareba, rac pirdapir kavSirSia siRaribis

donesTan da dasaqmebis problematikasTan.

aqedan gamomdinare, am Temis analizi da advokatireba mogvcems SesaZleblobas, rom mTavrobasTan diskusia-

dialogis gziT moxdes mosalodneli safrTxeebis identificireba da maTi prevencia. am proeqtis ganxorcieleba da

advokatireba SesaZleblobas mogvcems, movaxdinoT fokusireba ufro konkretul da xelSesaxeb problematikaze,

romlis daZlevac ekonomikur sivrceSi realuri cvlilebebis momtani SeiZleba gaxdes.

1. status qvo

im miRwevebis paralelurad, rac saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi omamdel viTarebaSi aSkarad SeiniSneboda da

dResac misi warmatebis safuZvels warmoadgens, ekonomikur sivrceSi mimdinare procesebi zogierT iseT

problemasac gamokveTs, romlebmac, saboloo angariSiT, qveynis ekonomikis winsvlis Seferxeba SeiZleba

gamoiwvios.

aqedan erT-erTi sakvanZo Tema savaWro deficitis ganuxreli zrda gaxlavT, romelic bolo wlebis gan-

mavlobaSi sul ufro masStaburi xdeba. Sesabamisad, izrdeba qveynis importze damokidebulebis xarisxi da

mis SigniT sustdeba ara mxolod saeqsporto, aramed importis Canacvlebis perspeqtivis mqone adgilobrivi

seqtorebic.

savaWro saldos gauareseba Tavisi SinaarsiT kompleqsuri procesia da misi gamomwvevi faqtorTa mTeli

wyebaa, romelTagan TiToeuls sakuTari adgili da xvedriTi wili aqvs, Tumca mainc SeiZleba gamoiyos ram-

denime garemoeba, romelTa gavlenac midinare procesze yvelaze TvalsaCinoa.

importis gazrdas, erTis mxriv, savaWro tarifebis ganulebis tendencia uwyobs xels, rac TavisTavad

misasalmebeli tendenciaa, radgan vaWrobis gaiolebas da gaiafebas moaswavebs. Tumca, imavdroulad gasacno-

bierebelia is riski, rom amgvari politika adgilobrivi warmoebis SesaZleblobebs amcirebs da importuli

produqciiT bazris sruli gajerebis albaTobas kidev ufro mets xdis.


3

imavdroulad, saeqsporto SesaZleblobebs ukanasknel or weliwadSi sagrZnoblad vnebda jer erovnuli

valutis kursis Seuqcevadi da mkveTri gamyarebis tendencia, rac eqsports aZvirebda da mis arsebul Tu

potenciur resurss amcirebda, imports ki, piriqiT, aiafebda da misi moculoba izrdeboda. mogvianebiT, ki

(2008 wlis noembridan) erovnuli valutis gacvliT kursTan dakavSirebiT warmoqmnili arastabiluri viTare-

ba aseve negatiurad aisaxa savaWro politikaze, vinaidan SeuZlebeli xdeba savaWro politikis da operaciebis

grZelvadiani dagegmareba da ganxorcieleba.

sxva met-naklebad mniSvnelovan faqtorebTan erTad (qarTuli saeqsporto potencialis simwire, qarTuli

kompaniebis naklebi finansuri mdgradoba da ucxour analogebTan SedarebiT gacilebiT susti poziciebi, ar-

sebul bazrebze adgilis SenarCunebis da gasaRebis axal bazrebze SeRwevis sirTuleebi da xarjianoba da a.S.),

es problemebi Sedegad iwvevs imas, rom xdeba ara eqsportis mateba da importis Canacvleba, aramed importis

gaZliereba, rac oficialuri statistikitac aris dadasturebuli da tendencia TvalsaCinoa _ qarTuli eqs-

porti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi.

arsebuli problema kidev ufro metad mniSvnelovania imiT, rom uSualo kavSirSia siRaribis daZlevis

problematikasTan. importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kom-

paniebis finansur Tu instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli

samuSao adgilebis SenarCunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas.

es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze, aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientire-

bul seqtorebs da kompaniebs. rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve

saeqsporto potenciali yvelaze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.

magaliTad, soflis meurneobaSi, romelmac 2007 wels saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtis, daaxloebiT,

13%-is generireba moaxdina. am seqtoris saeqsporto da adgilorivi poziciebis SenarCuneba gansakuTrebiT

mtkivneuli im faqtoris gamo iqneba, rom masSi qveynis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 55,6%-ia dasaqmebuli.

amdenad, qveynis eqsport-importis balansis konfiguraciis mkveTri cvlileba savaWro deficitis zrdis

TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos ekonomikis grZelvadiani problemaa, romelsac negatiuri Sedegebi SeiZleba

mohyves. aqedan gamomdinare, misi safuZvliani analizi da Sesabamisi prevenciuli qmedebebis aucilebloba

aSkaraa.

proeqtis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizania siRaribis problematikis swored am konteqstSi danaxva, vinaidan

Zalian xSirad arsebul viTarebaze dakvirveba da misi Seswavla xdeba xolme am faqtoris gauTvaliswineblad,

rac SeuZlebels xdis siRaribis gamomwvevi mizezebis kompleqsur xedvas da analizs.

arada, saqarTvelos savaWro deficitis Seuqcevadi zrda siRaribis problemas sul ufro mwvave xasiaTs

sZens da misi gavlena qveynis ekonomikaSi mimdinare procesebze (igulisxmeba rogorc Sromis bazari, aseve

axali kompaniebis Seqmnis, Semosavlebis generirebis da a.S. SesaZleblobebi) aseve mzardia.

eqsport-importis konfiguraciis cvlilebis gavlena siRaribis doneze ar aris myisieri procesi da

is yovelTvis mokle periodSi ar vlindeba. Sesabamisad, is dinamikaSi dakvirvebas da detalur analizs

saWiroebs.

am proeqtis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizania, gamoavlinos da Seafasos is bma, romelic arsebobs eqsport-im-

portis balansis cvlilebasa da mis gavlenas Soris dasaqmeba-umuSevrobisa da siRaribis donis gazrda-Sem-

cirebis problematikasTan. am urTierTkavSiris gamovlena SesaZlebels gaxdis im suraTis ufro farTod da-

naxvas da gaTvaliswinebas, romelze dayrdnobiTac am ori sakvanZo problemis mogvarebasTan dakavSirebuli

politika unda gadamuSavdes.

amavdroulad, am analiziT mniSvnelovania ekonomikis im seqtorebis gamovlena da yuradRebis fokusSi

moqceva, romelTac mimdinare cvlilebebis konteqstSi an axali perspeqtivebi uCndebaT, an piriqiT, arsebul

poziciebs kargaven.


4

2. savaWro brunva _ 2006-2007

ufro meti TvalsaCinoebisa da tendenciaze SedarebiT xangrZliv periodSi dakvirvebisTvis albaT sa-

survelia, sul mcire, bolo 2 wlis mocemulobebs davakvirdeT, romlebic ramdenime sayuradRebo garemoebas

gamokveTs.

saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva 2007 wels (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 6,457 miliardi dola-

ri iyo, rac 2006 wlis analogiur maCvenebelze 39,9%-iT metia. statistikis departamentis cnobiT, saerTo

sagareo vaWrobis moculobidan eqsporti 1,24 miliard dolars, xolo importi _ 5,22 miliards Seadgens.

uaryofiTi savaWro balansi rekorduli _ 3,98 miliardi dolaria (cxrili 1).

cxrili 1. saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis odenoba da struqtura 2006-2007 wlebSi

2006 weli (mln dolari) 2007 weli (mln dolari) zrda (%)

savaWro brunva 4 651 6 454 39,9

eqsporti 993 1 240 24,9

importi 3 681 5 217 41,7

deficiti 2 688 3 976 47,9

saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi 100 partnior qveynasTan aqvs, romlebTanac savaWro deficiti

4,12 miliardia, dadebiTi savaWro balansi ki saqarTvelos 23 qveyanasTan aqvs (146 milioni dolaris jamuri

odenobiT).

2007 wels saqarTvelos milion dolarze meti dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 11 qveyanasTan. esenia: kanada

(58,3 milioni), somxeTi (51,3 milioni), meqsika (12,6 milioni), gibraltari (8,3 milioni), tajikeTi (4,2 milioni),

iemeni (2,1 milioni), alJiri (1,6 milioni), erayi (1,4 milioni), belizi (1,3 milioni), filipinebi (1,3 milioni)

da avRaneTi (1,1 milioni).

savaWro deficitis 34,8% dsT-is qveynebze modis. am qveynebTan sagareo savaWro brunva 2007 wels 2,32

miliardi dolari iyo. dsT-is qveynebis wilad modis saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis 36%, maT Soris

eqsportis 37,9% da importis 35,5%.

rac Seexeba evropas, aq saqme ase gamoiyureba: sagareo savaWro brunva evrokavSiris 27 qveyanasTan 2007

wels 1,8 miliardi dolari iyo, rac wina wlis Sesabamis maCvenebels 36%-iT aRemateba. aqedan eqsporti 269

milioni dolaria, xolo importi _ 1,54 miliardi. am qveynebis wilad saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvis

28% modis, maT Soris eqsportis 21,7%, importis 29,5% da savaWro deficitis 34,8% (cxrili 2).

cxrili 2. savaWro brunvis odenoba da struqtura dsT-sa da evrokavSiris qveynebTan 2007 wels

dsT (mln dolari, %) evrokavSiri (mln dolari, %)

savaWro brunva 2,32 1,80

eqsporti 37,9% 21,7%

importi 35,5% 29,5%

deficiti 34,8% 34,8%

tendencia naTelia: saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi importi mzardi tempiT aviwroebs eqsports.

qarTuli eqsporti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi. Tan, qveynidan saeqs-

portod ZiriTadad kvlavac mxolod nedleuli gaedineba da, isic, sakmaod didi SeferxebebiT (igive Rvino

da citrusi an Tundac Savi liTonebis jarTi).


5

eqsportis aseTi mZime mdgomareobis fonze, importis aqtivoba sul ufro Zlierdeba. importis moZalebis

da adgilobrivi warmoebis Seviwroebis gamo, saeqsporto resursebi kidev ufro metad mcirdeba.

sagulisxmoa kidev erTi parametri: partniori 100 qveynidan saqarTvelos dadebiTi balansi mxolod 23-

Tan aqvs, danarCen 100-Tan _ uaryofiTi (SarSan proporcia 17-83-ze iyo). aqac uaryofiTebis ricxvi Seuqceva-

dad izrdeba, rac arsebuli eqsport-importis balansis gauaresebis kidev erTi dasturia.

eqsportis mcire masStabi pirdapir kavSirSia qveyanaSi produqciis warmoebis masStabebis dabal don-

esTan, radgan saubaria ara mxolod saeqsporto produqciis warmoebis mcire masStabTan, aramed _ importis

maRal donesTan. importis mudmivi mateba naTelyofs, rom saqarTvelos teritoriaze warmoebuli produqcia

ver uzrunvelyofs verc adgilobriv bazars, rac, Tavis mxriv, umuSevrobis safuZvelia. amitom, eqsportis

dabali maCvenebelisadmi, Sesabamisad _ importis mzardi maCveneblisadmi yuradRebis koncetrireba da eqs-

port_importis dinamikaze ekonomikuri aqcentebis gakeTeba mniSvnelovania qveynis umTavresi socialur-

ekonomikuri gamowvevis _ siRaribis dasaZlevad.

importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kompaniebis finansur Tu

instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli samuSao adgilebis Senar-

Cunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas. es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze,

aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientirebul seqtorebs da kompaniebs.

rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve saeqsporto potenciali yve-

laze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.

magaliTad, soflis meurneobaSi, romelmac 2007 wels saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtis, daaxloebiT,

12,3%-is generireba moaxdina. am seqtoris saeqporto da adgilorivi poziciebis senarCuneba gansakuTrebiT

mtkivneuli im faqtoris gamo iqneba, rom masSi qveynis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 55,6%-ia dasaqmebuli.




aSkaraa.

3. savaWro brunva _ 2008

is, rom saqarTvelos ekonomika kvlavac didwilad aris damokidebuli importze da eqsporto sul ufro

metad eqceva mis wnexis qveS, wlevandeli 10 Tvis statistikiTac dasturdeba.

2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunva (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 6

miliard 531 milion dolars Seadgens, rac wina wlis analogiur maCvenebelze 29%-iT metia. aqedan eqsporti

1 miliard 352 milioni dolaria (Sesabamisad 35,6%-iT meti), xolo importi _ 5 miliard 179 milion dolari

(27,4%-iT meti). anu 2008 wlis 10 TveSi saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi 3 miliard 827 milioni

dolaria da, savaraudod, wlis bolomde 4 miliard gadaaWarbebs.

2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 104 partnior qveyanasTan,

romlebTanac savaWro deficiti 4 miliard 35 milion dolars Seadgens (nacvlad 100 qveynisa da 3 miliard

182 milioni dolarisa, rac dafiqsirda 2007 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi).

2008 wlis ianvar-oqtomberSi qveyanas dadebiTi savaWro balansi aqvs 21 qveyanasTan 208 milioni dolaris

pozitiuri balansiT (nacvlad 22 qveynisa da 115 milioni dolarisa, rac dafiqsirda gasuli wlis ianvar-

oqtomberSi).


6

qveynebis raodenoba sagareo savaWro balansi, mln.

aSS dolari

uaryofiTi savaWro balansi

2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 100 3 182.2

2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 104 4 035.3

dadebiTi savaWro balansi

2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 22 114.5

2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 21 208.1

sul

2007 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 122 -3 067.7

2008 wlis ianvari-oqtomberi 125 -3 827.2

2007 w. ianvari-oqtomberi 2008 w. ianvari-oqtomberi

aTasi aSS

dolari

procenti

jamis mimarT

aTasi aSS

dolari

procenti

jamis mimarT

eqsporti _ sul 997 024.5 100.0 1 351 972.0 100.0

feroSenadnobebi 117 630.9 11.8 260 894.3 19.3

Savi liTonebis jarTi 83 623.8 8.4 118 664.3 8.8

spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi 79 212.5 7.9 111 918.0 8.3

azotovani sasuqebi 51 094.4 5.1 102 952.8 7.6

msubuqi avtomobilebi 54 932.6 5.5 99 084.6 7.3

oqro daumuSavebeli an naxevraddamuSavebuli 53 190.2 5.3 73 985.0 5.5

cementi 52 565.2 5.3 73 985.0 5.5

spirti eTilis aradenaturirebuli 80 moc. %-ze naklebi

spirtis koncentraciiT da spirtiani sasmelebi42 477.8 4.3 43 976.9 3.3

yurZnis naturaluri Rvinoebi 22 745.0 2.3 30 568.5 2.3

spilenZis jarTi 32 332.0 3.2 29 224.1 2.2

cxrili 3.

saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro balansi

cxrili 4.

umsxvilesi sasaqonlo poziciebi saqarTvelos eqsportSi

sasaqonlo jgufebidan saeqsporto aTeulSi pirvel adgilze feroSenadnobebia _ mis wilad 2008 wlis

ianvar-oqtomberSi eqsportis 19,3% modis da 261 milion dolars Seadgens. Savi liTonebis jarTis eqsporti

Seadgens 119 milion dolars, rac eqsportis 8,8%-ia. mesame adgilze myofi spilenZis madnebisa da koncentra-

tebis sasaqonlo jgufis eqsportis wili 8,3%-ia da 112 milion dolars Seadgens.

umsxvilesi saimporto sasaqonlo jgufi, 2008 wlis ianvar-seqtemberSi, navTobi da navTobproduqtebia,

romlis wili 13,1% da 679 milioni dolaria. meore adgilze myofi msubuqi avtomobilebis sasaqonlo jgufis

importi 435 milioni dolari anu importis 8,4%-ia.

mesame adgils navTobis airebis da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebis da samkurnalo saSualebebis sasaqonlo jgufebi

iyofen 3-3%-iani wiliT da, Sesabamisad, 157 milioni dolaris da 153 milioni dolaris Tanxobrivi moculobiT.


7

2007 w. ianvari-oqtomberi 2008 w. ianvari-oqtomberi

aTasi aSS

dolari

procenti

jamis mimarT

aTasi aSS

dolari

procenti

jamis mimarT

eqsporti _ sul 4 064 762.4 100.0 5 179 221.7 100.0

navTobi da navTobproduqtebi 435 535.5 10.7 678 906.7 13.1

msubuqi avtomobilebi 300 182.2 7.4 435 174.0 8.4

navTobis airebi da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebi 241 990.6 6.0 157 373.1 3.0

samkurnalo saSualebebi 119 093.4 2.9 153 075.8 3.0

aparatura gadamcemi radiosatelefono, radiosatelegrafo

kavSiris, radiomauwyeblobisa da televiziisaTvis83 672.8 2.1 134 799.9 2.6

rkinisa da foladis wnelebi 60 587.1 1.5 101 567.6 2.0

xorbali 99 966.7 2.5 90 378.7 1.7

gamomTvleli manqanebi da maTi blokebi 61 337.0 1.5 80 615.0 1.6

manganumis madnebi da koncentratebi 15 864.8 0.4 69 876.2 1.3

xorblis fqvili 21 475.8 0.5 67 715.9 1.3

cxrili 5.

umsxvilesi sasaqonlo poziciebi saqarTvelos importSi

am siis zedapiruli analizic cxadyofs, rom qveynis eqsport-importis struqturaSi arc is tendencia

Secvlila, romlis mixedviTac qveynidan ZiriTadad nedleuli gaedineba, romlis warmoebaSic minimaluri

samuSao Zalaa CarTuli. importirebuli saqonlis nusxaSi ki upiratesad saboloo produqtebia, romelsac

saqarTveloSi gadamuSaveba aRar sWirdeba da mxolod sacalo qselSi serviss moiTxovs.

rogorc erT, iseve meore SemTxvevaSi dasaqmebis efeqti Zalian dabalia. Sesabamisad, importis zrda da

eqsportis naklebadmwarmoebluri segmentebis ganviTareba qveyanaSi dasaqmebis klebis da umuSevrobis zrdis

ZiriTad xelSemwyobad rCeba.

zogadadac, saqarTvelos ekonomikis momavali ganviTarebis Semafarxebeli ramdenime faqtoridan erT-

erTi umniSvnelovanesi swored qveynis mzardi savaWro deficitia. deficiti, romelsac, adre Tu gvian, au-

cileblad unda gamoewvia is, rac 2008 wlis noemberSi ori dRis intervaliT moxda _ erovnuli valutis

17%-iani devalvacia.

4. problemis arsi

saWiroa imis zustad gageba, Tu ra TvalsazrisiT warmoadgens savaWro deficiti aseT mniSvnelovan proble-

mas. Tumca, isic aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom arsebuli viTareba qveynis, rogorc Semosavalze orien-

tirebuli ekonomikis struqturul arCevans ukavSirdeba.

TavisTavad, aseT deficits monetaruli da realuri ganzomilebebi gaaCnia. sakiTxis monetaruli mxare am

deficitis gacvliT kursze zemoqmedebaSi mdgomareobs. Teoriulad, gacvliTi kursis TviTkoreqtireba abalan-

sebs vaWrobas: importis siWarbe zrdis moTxovnas ucxour valutaze da aufasurebs erovnul valutas, rac zrdis

produqtebis konkurentunarianobas gacvliTi kursis TvalsazrisiT da aumjobesebs savaWro balanss.

stabiluri deficiti SeiZleba gaCndes sxvadasxva viTarebaSi: aSS-Si, sadac erovnuli valuta msoflio

valutacaa, rac aneitralebs gacvliTi kursis maregulirebel efeqts; im qveynebSi, sadac gacvliTi kursis


8

cvalebadoba SezRudulia mTavrobis mier gatarebuli mkacri sakurso politikiT, `savaluto faris~ reJimis

gamoyenebiT, an monetaruli integraciiT, rogorc evrokavSirSia.

iseT qveynebSi, rogoric saqarTveloa, sadac kapitalis Semosuli nakadebi akompensirebs savaWro defici-

tis gavlenas gacvliT kursze da inarCunebs erovnuli valutis maRal kurss.

am problemis realuri ganzomileba isaa, rom mzardi savaWro deficiti asaxavs erovnuli ekonomikis arakon-

kurentunarianobas da qveynis Zalze viwro ekonomikur bazas, romelic SeiZleba erT sul mosaxleze SromiTi da-

naxarjebiT gaizomos. es danaxarjebi SeiZleba Zalian dabali iyos iseTi mizezebis gamo, rogoricaa: ganuviTare-

beli ekonomika, araformaluri seqtori, potenciuri aqtivobis dabali done (rac ganpirobebulia demografiuli

faqtoriT), dasaqmebis dabali done, samuSao asakis mqone mosaxleobis dabali wliuri Sromis danaxarjebi.

saerTod, savaWro deficitis monetaruli da realuri ganzomilebebi ekonomikuri politikis prioritetebis

gaTvaliswinebiT unda gaanalizdes. sainteresoa, rom es viTareba safrangeTis ekonomikis dRevandel mdgomareo-

bas waagavs, romlis savaWro deficitic, ukve meoTxe welia, 39 miliardi evroa (mSp-is TiTqmis 2%). mas ganapiro-

bebs importirebuli energomatareblebis fasebi, evros maRali gacvliTi kursi, dabali xelfasebi germaniaSi da

arasakmarisi SromiTi danaxarjebi. aRniSnuli deficitis interpretaciac ekonomistebs Soris kamaTis sagania.

ra aris saqarTvelos ekonomikis prioritetebi?

Tu prioritetebi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis meSveobiT modernizaciis ganxorcieleba da siRaribis

daZlevaa, maSin deficitis monetaruli efeqti ganeitraldeba da saqarTvelos kvlav maRali da stabiluri

gacvliTi kursi eqneba. amgvari kursi kargia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mosazidad, aseve mosaxleobis

myidvelobiTi unarisTvis im pirobiT, Tu mas Semosavali eqneba. magram, realurad, maRali gacvliTi kursi

ar aris kargi adgilobrivi warmoebis konkurentunarianobisTvis da Sesabamisad, dasaqmebis da adgilobrivi

Semosavlebis generirebisTvis. qveyana viwro ekonomikuri bazis CarCoSi Caiketeba.

isic unda davamatoT, rom erovnul valutaze pozitiur da negatiur zewolebs Soris arsebuli amJaminde-

li balansi saSualovadian periodSi sakmaod myife situacias qmnis. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT rom deficiti Zalian

didia (mSp-is 24%-ze meti, rac 12-jer metia, vidre safrangeTSi), aRniSnuli balansis nebismieri cvlileba

seriozul ekonomikur destabilizacias gamoiwvevs. ukve dRes pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sedegad nomi-

naluri kursis gamyarebis Tavidan asacileblad didi odenobis laris ineqciebi inflaciis safrTxes qmnis.

garda amisa, importze zedmetad orientirebuli ekonomikis yvelaze didi nakli adgilobrivi aqtivobis

dasustebaa, ris Sedegsac xSirad yvelaze did problemas warmoadgens siRaribe, romelic bolo dros poli-

tikuri cxovrebis fokusSi moeqca. miuxedavad amisa, jer kidev ar xdeba aRniSnuli fenomenis Rrma analizi

da monitoringi. siRaribis raodenobrivi Sefaseba ver xerxdeba monacemTa araTanmimdevrulobis gamo.

5. siRaribis done

arsebuli monacemebis mixedviT, siRaribis done mcirdeba, magram igi ufro maRalia qalaqebSi, rac sakma-

od sakamaToa, Tu mxedvelobaSi miviRebT qalaqebSi fuladi gzavnilebis sidides. ufro marTebulia albaT is,

rom siRaribe dakavSirebulia dasaqmebis dabal donesTan rogorc qalaqad, ise soflad. soflebSi dasaqmebis

ZiriTadi forma, saerTaSoriso organizaciebis terminologias Tu gamoviyenebT, aris `TviTdasaqmeba~. rea-

lurad es aris wvrili, upiratesad TviTgamokvebaze orientirebuli fermeruli meurneoba.

TviTdasaqmebulebi ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis 50%-s Seadgens. daqiravebul adamianTa ricxvi

jerjerobiT ar gazrdila da ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mxolod 30%-s an mTlianad dasaqmebulTa

35%-s Seadgens. jerjerobiT ar Catarebula Sromis bazrebis, fuladi gzavnilebis da siRaribis regionuli

analizi, rac qalaqad da soflad siRaribis xafangebs gamoavlenda.


9

garda socialuri da politikuri Sedegebisa, aseTi mdgomareobis mTavari Sedegi saSualovadian periodSi

iqneba masStaburi dausaqmebloba, rac qveynis ekonomikuri bazis Semdgom Semcirebas moaswavebs. swored amis

gamo, sareitingo saagento Fitch Ratings frTxili iyo Tavis SefasebaSi, rodesac xazs usvamda saqarTvelos Semo-

savlebis saSualo dones da viwro ekonomikur bazas.

sagulisxmoa, rom jer kidev aprilSi, rodesac Fitch Ratings-ma saqarTvelos grZelvadiani BB- reitingi

SeunarCuna stabiluri perspeqtiviT, saagentom im riskebis identificirebac moaxdina, romlebic saqarTve-

los ekonomikisTvis rogorc mokle, aseve grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi problemebis wyarod SeiZleba iqces.

sakredito kompaniis eqspertebi xazgasmiT aRniSnaven, rom politikuri da ekonomikuri sisusteebis, maT

Soris sagareo savaWro deficitis gamo, qveynis swrafi ekonomikuri ganviTarebisTvis safrTxeebi arsebobs.

is faqti, rom mudmivad mzardi uaryofiTi savaWro saldo qveynis ekonomikis erT-erTi yvelaze mtkivneuli

problemaa, msoflios erT-erTma yvelaze avtoritetulma sareitingo saagentom kidev erTxel daadastura.

sxva garemoebebTan erTad, esec aris imis gamomwvevi faqtori, rom saagento Fitch Ratings wels saqarTve-

loSi mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis prognozi Seamcira. mogvianebiT ki reitingi klebisken mainc gadaisinja,

risi mizezic ruseTTan saomari modgomareoba da ekonomikuri maCveneblebis mkveTri gaureseba gaxda.

ekonomikur sisusteebs Soris uaryofiT savaWro saldos permanentulad mzardi sirTule rom aris da pirdapir

kavSirSia siRaribis donesTan da dasaqmebis problematikasTan, esec calsaxad aRiniSna. socialuri daZabulobis

muxti kvlavac maRalia, rac, sabolood, isev Sida politikuri mdgomareobis gamwvavebis mizezi SeiZleba gaxdes.

dasaqmebis dabali done saqarTveloSi arsebul ekonomikur problemaTa jaWvis is rgolia, romelic yo-

velTvis Zalian sustad gamoiyureba da socilur-ekonomikuri mdgradobis yvelaze myife elements warmoad-

gens.

vinaidan warmoebis dinamika CamorCeba moxmarebas, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom sawarmoo baza qveyanaSi Zalian

viwroa. es zedmeti moxmarebis realobis dasaqmebis aspeqtia. rasakvirvelia, mxedvelobaSia misaRebi Sromis

sxvadasxva intensivoba warmoebis sxvadasxva dargSi da isic, rom zogierTi arasaeqsporto dargi, magaliTad,

mSenebloba, bevr samuSao adgils qmnis. magram ase ar aris sxva, iseT mzard seqtorebSi, rogoricaa, vTqvaT,

finansuri seqtori an komunikaciebi. es struqturuli umuSevroba mxolod nawilobriv aisaxeba umuSevrobis

maCveneblebSi.

gasaTvaliswinebelia aseve araregistrirebuli dasaqmeba rogorc soflad, ise did qalaqebSi da emigri-

rebuli samuSao asakis mqone mosaxleoba, rac aseve mniSvnelovnad cvlis arsebul suraTs.

emigracia calke problemuri blokia _ kompleqsuri fenomeni, romelic aixsneba rogorc ekonomikuri (si-

Raribis biZgi da sxva qveynebSi cxovrebis maRali standartebis mimzidveloba), ise sociologiuri (adre

emigrirebuli diaspora) da kulturuli faqtorebiT (zogierTi qveynis simbolurad Tu ekonomikurad mi-

mzidveli Zala).

iseTi patara qveynebisTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa, emigraciis maRali done tradiciuli reaqciaa umuSe-

vrobaze. saqarTveloSi wminda migraciuli danakargi erT milion adamianze metia (mosaxleobis 20%), romlis

2/3 ZiriTadad ruseTSia (danarCeni aSS-Si, saberZneTSi, TurqeTSi, espaneTsa da ukrainaSi).

emigracia da zedmeti moxmareba Semosavalze orientirebul ekonomikas TviTmaval ekonomikad aqcevs.

rasakvirvelia, arsebobs sawarmoo investiciebis sapirispiro tendenciac, magram es tendencia jerjerobiT

sustia, rac imaze miuTiTebs, rom Semosavalze orientacia stabiluria da mdgradia da kidev ufro didia am

viTarebaSi Caketvis riski.

ase rom, saqarTvelo, yvela niSniT, aris Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomika. imave 2006 wels aseTi Semo-

savlebi iyo: fuladi gzavnilebi (800 milioni dolari), pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi (1,1 miliardi dola-

ri), saerTaSoriso garantiebi (187 milioni dolari), kapitaluri Semosavlebi privatizaciisagan (312 milioni

dolari) da daaxloebiT 100 milioni dolari milsadenis sakomisioebis saxiT. gare wyaroebidan miRebuli


10

mTeli Semosavali 2006 wels 2,5 miliard dolars anu mSp-s daaxloebiT 32,5%-s Seadgenda. igive tendencias

adasturebs 2007 weli da 2008 wlis presaomari periodi.

Semosavlebze orientirebul situacias saqarTveloSi TavisTavad sami Zala amoZravebs: Semcirebuli ekonomi-

kuri bazis TviTmavali meqanizmi, emigracia da zedmeti moxmareba; dasavleli donorebis sagareo daxmareba, rom-

lebsac qveyanaSi grZelvadiani strategiuli interesebi gaaCniaT da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis nakadebi.

6. saSualovadiani riski

ra Sedegebia mosalodneli saSualovadian periodSi?

SeiZleba CavTvaloT, rom didi savaWro deficiti TavisTavad problema ar aris, vinaidan amave dros Semo-

dis resursebi am deficitis dasafinanseblad da misgan gamowveuli disbalansis Sesamsubuqeblad da, piriqiT,

Semosuli kapitalis potenciurad negatiur zegavlenas realur gacvliT kursze swored savaWro deficiti

aneitralebs, magram isic faqtia, rom udidesma savaWro deficitma ukve gamoiwvia erovnuli valutis deval-

vacia da sxva riskebis gazrda.

saqarTvelos ekonomika, rogorc velosipedi, win migoravs am or disbalanss Soris. problema is aris, rom

es Tanafardoba ar aris stabiluri da sagareo Semosavlebis Semcireba (rac SeiZleba moxdes, magaliTad, Tu

saSualovadian periodSi emigrantTa nawilebi ukan dabrundeba) an savaWro deficitis kleba (rac mosalodne-

lia eqsportis zrdis Sedegad) makroekonomikur ryevebs gamoiwvevs.

garda amisa, kvazi-fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis viTarebaSi, kapitalis msxvili nakadebis Semosvla moi-

Txovs laris Sesabamis emisias da zrdis fulis agregatebs: M2 2005 wels 26%-iT, xolo 2006 wels 30%-iT gai-

zarda, fulze moTxovna ki Sesabamisad ar gazrdila. es inflaciuri zewola ukve gamoCnda: saSualo fasebis

indeqsi 2005 wels 6,2%-dan 2006 wels 8,7%-mde, xolo 2007 wels _ 10,7%-mde gaizarda.

problema ukve sagrZnobia mosaxleobisTvis imitom, rom fasebi ZiriTadad saboloo moxmarebis saqonelze

matulobs. importis maRalma wilma, romelsac movaWreTa mcire jgufi akontrolebs, SeiZleba dawios konku-

renciis done am bazrebze da gamoiwvios aramonetaruli inflacia. inflacia Seamcirebs eqsportis poten-

cials da gazrdis zedmet moxmarebas.

sadReisod, Semcirebulia standartuli konkurentuli upiratesobebi. rodesac mzardi savaWro defi-

citia, pirvelive diagnozi aseTia: laris gacvliTi kursi ar aris optimaluri da Sors aris wonasworuli

mniSvnelobisgan. amis recepti laris kidev ufro gaufasureba iqneboda, romelic zedmetad gamyarebulad

iTvleba. Tumca, aseTi midgoma, ramdenime mizezis gamo, ar aris rekomendebuli saerTaSoriso savaluto fon-

dis da msoflio bankis mier.

es mizezebia: eqsportis struqtura, adgilobrivi soflis meurneobis da biznesis uunaroba, isargeblos

gacvliTi kursis koreqtirebiT, bankebis aqtivebis struqtura da, aseve, socialuri sakiTxebi. CamoTvlili

mizezebis gamo saqarTvelo iZulebulia, dResac laris ufro maRali kursiT icxovros, vidre es ekonomiku-

rad gamarTlebuli iqneboda.

saSualovadian periodSi es sakmaod seriozuli gamowvevaa. jerjerobiT pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ar

Secvlis situacias, vinaidan isini ar aris realurad orientirebuli mwarmoeblurobis zrdaze da gareSe zewo-

las ar Seamsubuqebs.

qveynis mdgradi ganviTareba ar unda emyarebodes iaf muSaxels da fasebis konkurentulobas. magaliTad, tu-

ristuli momsaxureba, TurqeTTan SedarebiT, ar aris konkurentuli. qarTuli sasoflo sameurneo produqciis

zogierTi saxeoba, Zalian dabali tarifebis pirobebSi, ver uwevs konkurencias adgilobriv bazarze Turqul da

sxva qveynis analogebs. igive problema aqvs msubuqi mrewvelobis nawarms Cinur importTan mimarTebaSi, da a.S.


11

am gamowvevis dasaZlevad saqarTvelom unda Seqmnas axali konkurentuli upiratesobebi xarisxiani da maRa-

li damatebuli Rirebulebis produqtebis bazaze.

amasTan, saqarTvelom unda moipovos konkurentunarianoba Tavisi agroproduqciiT da turistuli resur-

sebiT. rac Seexeba transportirebas, tranzits da logistikur momsaxurebas, saqarTvelo ukve iRebs sargebels

Tavisi specifikuri adgilmdebareobiT.

mimdinare angariSis deficiti da Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomika ucxour finansur wyaroebze

Zlier damokidebulebas qmnis.

donorebisgan Semosavlebis miReba momavalSi metnaklebad garantirebulia strategiuli investiciebiT

saqarTveloze gamaval satranzito marSrutebSi. aseTi viTareba, romelic did dasavlur interesebs Seesaba-

meba, aSS-is an evrokavSiris mier qveynis instrumentalizaciis riskis matarebelia. garda amisa, Semosavlebi,

romlebic fuladi gzavnilebis saxiT Semodis, mudmivi politikuri riskis qveSaa, rac gasaTvaliswinebelia

ruseTTan urTierTobaSi.

qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis umTavresi SemzRudveli faqtori misi viwro ekonomikuri bazaa, rac

ucxoeTSi xangrZlivad mcxovreb diasporebTanaa dakavSirebuli da Semosavalze orientirebuli ekonomikis

damaxasiaTebel niSans warmoadgens. situacias amZimebs dasaqmebis problema, gansakuTrebiT soflad. amitom

saWiroa, agrarul regionebSi sabazro ekonomikis daCqarebuli ganviTarebis realuri xelSewyoba da soflis

mosaxleobis potenciuri emigraciis marTva, rasac soflad ekonomikis mwarmoeblurobis mosalodneli zrda

gamoiwvevs.

amrigad, viwro ekonomikuri baza saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi mdgradi ganviTarebis gadaulaxav barierad

rom ar iqces, aucilebelia arasruli dasaqmebis aRmofxvra da warmoebis zrdis uzrunvelyofa saeqsporto po-

tencialis gaumjobesebis gziT, rac pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gamoyenebiT da evropuli normebisa da

standartebis damkvidrebiT unda moxdes.

7. postsaomari suraTi

calke saubris Temaa is problemebi, rasac dasaqmebas postsaomari viTareba Seuqmnis. msoflio bankis da gae-

ros SefasebiT, msoflio krizisis da agvistos movlenebis Semdeg, saqarTvelos ekonomikas recesia emuqreba.

donorebis prognoziT, konfliqtamde da konfliqtis Semdeg viTareba ase Seicvala: Tu manamde wliuri

zrda 9%-is farglebSi ivaraudeboda, axla misi moculoba 3,5%-mde daecema. inflacia 10%-dan 8%-mde iklebs,

mimdinare angariSis deficiti ki 16,6%-dan 20,8%-mde moimatebs.

mimdinare wels, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi dagegmilze (2,1 miliardi dolari) TiTqmis miliardi

dolariT naklebi Semova da mxolod 1,2 miliards Seadgens. rac Seexeba biujets, romelic winaswari gegmiT

proficituli unda yofiliyo, amJamad is donorebis daxmarebis saxiT 480 milionamde dolars saWiroebs.

amave kvlevis mixedviT, saukeTeso SemTxvevaSi gadavaddeba investiciebi mSeneblobaSi, uZrav qonebaSi,

sacalo vaWrobasa da turizmSi. donorebis daskvniT, stabilurobis aRdgenamde eWvqveS dadgeba qveynis sa-

tranzito funqciac. deficitia mosalodneli sabiujeto SemosavlebSic, rac donorebis daxmarebiT unda

Seivsos.

donorebis prognoziT, uaxloes xanebSi umuSevarTa odenoba, savaraudod, 100-i aTasiT gaizrdeba da 350 aTass

miaRwevs, rac samuSao Zalis saerTo ricxovnobis mexuTedia.

Sesabamisad, umuSevrobis zewola ekonomikur viTarebaze kidev ufro zrdadi iqneba. aqedan gamomdinare, ad-

gilobriv damsaqmeblebs da dasaqmebulebs, romlebsac prekrizisul periodamdec sakmaod aqtiurad aviwroe-

bdnen importuli analogebi, amJamad kidev ufro rTul viTarebaSi aRmoCndebian da ara mxolod Semosavlebis

Semcireba, aramed samuSao adgilebis dakargvac eliT.


12

8. vaWrobis sikeTe

rogorc qarTveli, ise ucxoeli mecnierebi da specialistebi erTmniSvnelovnad Tanxmdebian sagareo

vaWrobis uaRresad mniSvnelovan rolze ekonomikuri ganviTarebis maRali tempebis miRwevaSi. marTlac, Zne-

lia gadaWarbebiT Seafaso sagareo vaWrobis roli ganviTarebadi qveynebis, gansakuTrebiT ki mcire zomis

ganviTarebadi ekonomikebisTvis.

rogoria aseTi qveynebis msoflio vaWrobaSi da sazogadod, msoflio ekonomikaSi monawileobis xarisxi?

ra struqturuli da instituciuri faqtorebi axdenen gadamwyvet gavlenas vaWrobasa da ganviTarebaze? ra

tendenciebi yalibdeba am TvalsazrisiT Tanamedrove msoflioSi? rogor ganisazRvros saerTaSoriso vaWro-

bis ganviTarebis gziT ekonomikuri zrdis maRali tempebis miRwevis prioritetebi?

am sakiTxebis analizisa da monitoringis mizniT gaeros vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis asociaciis (UNCTAD)

samdivnom SeimuSava vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi (vg-indeqsi), romelic qveynebis urTierTSedarebis

saukeTeso saSualebas warmoadgens.

msoflio ekonomikaSi saqarTvelos adgilze swored UNCTAD-is vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis mixed-

viT dakvirveba sakmaod saintereso Sedegebs avlens.

vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi sam ZiriTad mizans emsaxureba:

vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis monitorings;

am mdgomareobaze moqmedi faqtorebis analizs;

erovnuli da saerTaSoriso doneze politikis iseTi instrumentebis SemuSavebas, romlebic uzrun-

velyofs sagareo vaWrobis fokusirebas ganviTarebaze da siRaribis Semcirebaze.

sxva sityvebiT, es indeqsi mowodebulia daexmaros saxelmwifoebs, gansakuTrebiT dabalganviTarebul da

Rarib qveynebs, gansazRvron, Tu ra gziT moaxdinon efeqtiani integrireba msoflio ekonomikaSi da miiRon sarge-

beli saerTaSoriso vaWrobidan ekonomikuri zrdis, siRaribis Semcirebisa da keTildReobis amaRlebis mizniT.

pirvel sqemaSi konkretuladaa mocemuli vg-indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologiuri principebi.

vaWrobis da ganviTarebis indeqsi miiReba 34 specifikuri maCveneblebis sami donis agregaciis Sedegad.

pirvel doneze xdeba aRniSnuli 34 maCveneblidan 13 agregirebuli maCveneblis gaangariSeba, romelTagan 9

axasiaTebs vaWrobisa da ganviTarebaze moqmed faqtorebs (faqtoruli Sefaseba) struqturuli da institu-

ciur WrilSi, 2 _ savaWro politikisa da ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT. me-12 da me-13 maCveneblebiT ki Sefase-

bulia vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareoba, rogorc Sedegi (Sedegobrivi Sefaseba).

sqema 1.

vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis koncefciuri CarCo

struqturuli da

instituciuri Wrili

adamianuri kapitali

fizikuri infrastruqtura

safinanso Suamavloba

Sida finansebi

saerTaSoriso finansebi

instituciuri xarisxi

ekonomikuri struqtura

mikroekonomikuri stabiluroba

garemos sijansaRe

savaWro gaxsniloba

bazrebze wvdoma

faqtoruli

Sefaseba

(saSualo

Sewonili)

Sedegobrivi

Sefaseba

(saSualo

Sewonili)

martivi

saSualo

vaWrobisa da

ganviTarebis

indeqsi

vaWrobis mdgomareoba

ekonomikuri da

socialuri keTildReoba

savaWro politika

da ganviTareba

vaWrobisa da ganviTare-

bis mdgomareoba


13

sabolood vg-indeqsi miiReba, rogorc faqtoruli da Sedegobrivi Sefasebebis martivi saSualo ariTme-

tikuli (agregaciis mesame done).

es maCveneblebi, erTi mxriv, aRweren im faqtorebs, romelTa gavleniTac miiRweva vaWrobisa da ganviTa-

rebis arsebuli done qveyanaSi, xolo meore mxriv, axasiaTeben vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobas.

ekonomikur maCvenebelTa aseTi farTo wris gamoyeneba TvalsaCinos xdis im faqts, rom mxolod sagareo va-

Wrobis liberalizacia ar iZleva vaWrobis gafarToebisa da ganviTarebis sasurveli donis miRwevis SesaZleblo-

bas. UNCTAD_is mier 2007 wels gamoqveynebul angariSSi naTlad Cans saqarTvelos Zlieri da susti mxareebi

vaWrobasa da ganviTarebis sferoSi sxva qveynebTan mimarTebaSi.

sagulisxmoa, rom aRniSnuli indeqsis gamoyenebis iniciativa arc ise didi xnis win warmoiSva. pirveli

aseTi gaangariSebebi, 2005 wlis monacemenze dayrdnobiT, 2006 wels gamoqveynda. maSin masSi msoflios 110

qveyana monawileobda. 2007 wlis noemberSi gamoqveynda 2006 wlis maCveneblebis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli

axali monacemebi, romelTa gaangariSebis samuSaoebs xelmZRvanelobda mrCevelTa sabWo, nobelis premiis

laureatis, profesor laurens kleinis TavmjdomareobiT.

9. saqarTvelos adgili

rac ufro maRalia vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi, miT ukeTesia ama Tu im qveyanaSi am sferoSi arsebu-

li viTareba. aqedan gamomdinare, aRniSnuli indeqsis zrda mocemul periodSi sagareo vaWrobis gafarToebasa

da ekonomikis zrdaze miuTiTebs.

saqarTvelos vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis analizisa da misi danarCen qveynebTan Sedarebis-

Tvis qveynebis oTxi jgufia SerCeuli (Tumca cnobilia, qveynebis sxva regionuli klasifikaciebic): ganvi-

Tarebadi qveynebi, samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebi, evrokavSirSi 2004 wels Sesuli qveynebi

(evrokavSiri 10) da ganviTarebuli qveynebi.

aRniSnuli oTxi jgufi garkveuli mosazrebiT SeirCa. kerZod, ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgufSi SerCeva Cveni

qveynis mimdinare statusma ganapiroba; samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebi imis gamo SeirCa, rom

saqarTvelo swored am jgufSi Sedis da msgavsi sastarto pirobebi aqvs; evrokavSiris axali wevrebis jguf-

Tan Sedareba aucilebelia, radganac am qveynis mier vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis sferoSi miRweuli Sedegebi

sul cota, „programa-minimums` mainc unda warmoadgendes saqarTvelosTvis, rogorc evropul Rirebulebebze

orientirebuli qveynisTvis; da bolos, ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufTan saqarTvelos monacemebis Sedareba im

mosazrebiT moxda, rom ukeT gamoCeniliyo, Tu ramdenad Sors varT ganviTarebis saukeTeso maCveneblebisgan.

rogorc zemoT motanili sqemidan Cans, UNCTAD-is mier vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis donis ganmsazRvreli

struqturuli da instituciuri faqtorebi daxasiaTebulia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogorebicaa: adamianuri

kapitali, fizikuri infrastruqtura, safinanso Suamavloba, Sida dafinanseba, saerTaSoriso dafinanseba,

instituciuri xarisxi, ekonomikuri struqtura, makroekonomikuri stabiluroba da garemos sijansaRe.

adamianuri kapitalis Sefaseba jandacvaze gaweuli mTliani (saxelmwifo da kerZo) xarjebisa da ganaTlebaze

gaweuli saxelmwifo xarjebis mTliani Sida produqtTan SefardebiT xdeba. es indikatori gviCvenebs, Tu ramdenad

janmrTeli da kvalificiuri muSaxeliTaa uzrunvelyofili erovnuli ekonomikebis aRmSeneblobiTi procesebi.

saqarTvelosTvis igi 11-s Seadgenda, rac 42 punqtiT naklebia yvelaze maRal maCvenebelze, romelic vg-

indeqsiT me-3 adgilze gasulma daniam, me-8 adgilze gasulma norvegiam da me-12 adgilze gasulma islandiam

aCvenes. am maCvenebliT saqarTvelo 123 qveyanas Soris 117-120-e adgilebs inawilebs ekvadorTan (70-e adgili

vg-indeqsiT), ganasTan (96-e adgili) da bangladeSTan (102-e adgili) da mxolod 2 punqtiT uswrebs gvineasa

(116-e adgili) da nigerias (121-e adgili), aseve 3 punqtiT _ pakistans (103-e adgili).


14

adamianuri kapitalis indeqsiT saqarTvelo postsabWoTa qveynebidan yvelas CamorCeba. qveynebis am jguf-

Si aRniSnuli maCvenebeli 13-dan (azerbaijani) 35-dan (belarusi) meryeobs. qvemoT motanili grafikebidan na-

Tlad Cans, rom adamianuri kapitalis maCveneblbliT Cven mniSvnelovnad CamovrCebiT ganviTarebadi qveynebis

(21) da samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis saSualo maCveneblebs (26), evrokavSiris _ 10-is (36)

da ganviTarebuli qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan mimarTebaze rom araferi vTqvaT (42).

statistikuri monacemebis simwire saSualebas ar gvaZlevs, rom srulyofilad SevafasoT ganaTlebisa

da jandacvaze saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebis danaxarjebis moculoba. Tumca, empiriuli monacemebiT, aseTi

200

300

400

500

100

grafiki 1.

vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba saqarTvelosa da sxvadasxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

0

0 0

0

50

50

50

100

100

100

150

150

150

200

200

200

250

250

250

300

300

300

350

350

400

350

ak

ak ak

ak

saqarTvelo da ganviTarebadi qveynebi:

vg-indeqsis komponentebis Sedareba

saqarTvelo da evrokavSiri _ 10:


saqarTvelo da ganviTarebuli qveynebi:


saqarTvelo da samxreT-aRmosavleTi evropa da dsT:


fi

fi fi

fifS

fS fS

fSSf

Sf Sf

Sfsf

sf sf

sfix

ix ix

ixes

es es

esms

ms ms

msgs

gs gs

gssg

sg sg

sgbw

bw bw

bwvm

vm vm

vmesk

esk esk

esk

saqarTvelo

saqarTvelo

pirobiTi aRniSvnebi:

faqtoruli Sefaseba:

ak _ adamianuri kapitali

fi _ fizikuri infrastruqtura

fS _ safinanso Suamavloba

Sf _ Sida dafinanseba

sf _ saerTaSoriso dafinanseba

Sedegobrivi Sefaseba:

vm _ vaWrobis mdgomareoba

esk _ ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReoba

ix _ instituciuri xarisxi

es _ ekonomikuri struqtura

ms _ makroekonomikuri stabiluroba

gs _ garemos sijansaRe

sg _ savaWro gaxsniloba

bw _ sagareo bazrebze wvdoma

saqarTvelo

saqarTveloganviTarebadi qveynebi

evrokavSiri _ 10 ganviTarebuli qveynebi

samxreT-aRmosavleT evropa da dsT


15

xarjebis gawevis saSualeba maT umetesobas ar gaaCnia. saxelmwifos xarjebs rac Seexeba, 2006 welTan Sedare-

biT, 2007 wels jandacvaze gaweuli xarjebi 34,4%-iT, xolo ganaTlebaze _ 13,3%-iT gaizarda.

miuxedavad amisa, maTze saxelmwifo biujetis mTliani xarjebis kvlav umniSvnelo wili modis: jandacvaze

_ 5%-is, ganaTlebaze _ 7%-is farglebSi. mTliani Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi es monacemebi kidev ufro

naklebia: 2007 wels jandacvaze gaweuli xarjebis wili mSp-Si daaxloebiT 1,5%-s, xolo ganaTlebaze _ 2,2%-s

Seadgenda. zemoTqmuli naTlad metyvelebs imaze, Tu ramdenad didi mniSvneloba aqvs, mwiri dafinansebis

pirobebSi, adamianuri kapitalis warmoebis procesSi ucxouri investiciebis gonivrul gamoyenebas.

fizikuri infrastruqturis Sefaseba sami maCveneblis agregaciiT xdeba: safariani gzebis procentuli

SefardebiT qveynis Sida gzebis saerTo sigrZesTan, sahaero satvirTo gadazidvebiT (milioni tona erT kilo-

metrze) da satelefono xazebis sigrZiT (1000 mcxovrebze). es maCveneblebi axasiaTebs qveynis transportisa

da kavSirgabmulobis potenciur SesaZleblobebs, rac haeriviT aucilebelia vaWrobis ganviTarebisTvis.

fizikuri infrastruqturis agregirebulma maCveneblebma saqarTvelosTvis 16 punqti Seadgina, rac erTi

SexedviT arc ise dabalia 123 qveynis saSualo maCvenebelze, romelic 20-s Seadgens. Tumca, am maCveneblebiT,

miuxedavad Tavisi geopolitikuri da satranzito potencialisa, saqarTvelo mxolod ganviTarebad qveynebs

utoldeba da mkveTrad CamorCeba saSualo maCvenebels qveynebis yvela danarCen jgufSi: samxreT-aRmosavleT

evropasa da dsT-sac (saSualo maCvenebeli 29), evrokavSiri-10-sac (32) da ganviTarebul qveynebsac (45).

aRsaniSnavia, rom infrastruqturis, upirvelesad ki, gzebis, ganviTareba bolo wlebSi saqarTvelos mTa-

vrobis umniSvnelovanes prioritets warmoadgens. 2006-2009 wlebSi dagegmilia 400 km saerTaSoriso da 340 km

Sidasaxelmwifoebrivi mniSvnelobis gzebis mSenebloba da reabilitacia, rac ukve intensiurad xorcieldeba.

amis gaTvaliswinebiT, SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom saqarTvelos fizikuri infrastruqturis maCvenebeli sagr-

Znoblad gaumjobesdeba, Tu, ra Tqma unda, daixveweba Sesabamisi dargis statistikac. niSandoblivia, rom statis-

tikur samuSaoTa 2008 wlis saxelmwifo programaSi transportirebisa da kavSirgabmulobis statistika saerTod

ar aris naxsenebi.

safinanso Suamavlobis ganviTarebis xarisxis dasadgenad gamoyenebulia kerZo seqtorebze gacemuli kre-

ditis mTliani Sida produqtTan Sefardeba, romelmac saqarTvelosTvis 4 puntqi Seadgina, rac 27-jer nak-

lebia pirvel adgilze gasul aSS-sTan da 12,8-jer naklebia meore adgilze gasul germaniasTan SedarebiT.

aRsaniSnavia, rom postsabWoTa qveynebSi es maCvenebeli aseve dabalia da 3-dan (azerbaijani da somxeTi)

18-mde (latvia) meryeobs. qveynebis am kategoriidan igi yvelaze maRalia latviaSi (18) da estoneTSi (17), da-

narCenebSi ki 3-dan 11-mde farglebSia. aRsaniSnavia, rom es maCvenebeli yvelaze dabalia samxreT-aRmosavleT

evropisa da dsT-s jgufSi (sadac Sedis saqarTveloc) da 8-s Seadgens, maSin roca ganviTarebuli qveynebis

jgufSi ki 51.

ra perspeqtivebia safinanso Suamavlobis xarisxis amaRlebis TvalsazrisiT?

Tu qveynis mTliani Sida produqtis dargobriv struqturas gadavxedavT, naTelia, rom safinanso Suama-

vloba qveynis erT-erTi yvelaze swrafad mzardi dargia. marTalia, misi wili mTliani Sida produqtSi jer-

jerobiT 2%-isis farglebSia, magram zrdis tempebi namdvilad STambeWdavia: 2005 wels _ 52,8%, 2006 wels _

36,9%, 2007 wels _ 14,7%. amave periodebSi mSp-s zrdis tempi Sesabamisad, 9,4%-dan da 12,4%-mde meryeobda.

bolo sami weliwadSi sabanko sistemis aqtivebi 2,8-jer gaizarda da mTliani Sida produqtis 42,4% Sead-

gina, nacvlad 21,9%-isa 2005 wels. bankebis mier ekonomikis dakreditebis moculoba amave periodSi 2,7-jer

gaizarda da mSp-s 26,6% Seadgina (2005 wels _ 14,6%), xolo depozitebi _ 2,4-jer da mSp-s 16,8% Seadgina (2005

wels _ 10,1%).

amdenad, aqamde aRwerili sami maCveneblis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mdgomareoba naklebad saxarbieloa, gan-

sakuTrebiT adamianuri kapitalis indeqsis mixedviT. rac Seexeba danarCen ors, Tu bolo wlebSi infrastru-

qturis mSeneblobis da sabanko sistemis zrdis tempebs gaviTvaliswinebT, viTareba ufro imedismomcemia.


16

struqturuli da instituciuri TvalsazrisiT ki, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis mniSvnelovani kom-

ponentebia Sida da saerTaSoriso finansebi.

Sida finansebi aRwerilia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa mTliani Sida dagrovebis (mTliani Sida pro-

duqts gamoklebuli saboloo momxmareblis xarjebi) Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan. es maCvenebeli

saqarTvelosaTvis 41-s Seadgenda, rac 4 punqtiT dabalia, vidre saSualod samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa

da dsT-s qveynebis jgufSi da 11-13 punqtiT dabalia, vidre aq ganxiluli qveynebis danarCeni jgufebis

mixedviT.

rogorc cnobilia, saboloo moxmarebis maRali wili mTlian Sida produqtSi mosaxleobis cxovrebis do-

nis dabal xarisxze miuTiTebs, ris gamoc sazogadoeba iZulebulia miRebuli Semosavlebis meti nawili (Tu

mTlianad ara) mimdinare moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebaze mimarTos da naklebi _ dagrovebaze. sagulisxmoa,

rom Tu 2005 wels saboloo moxmarebis xarjebi mTliani Sida produqtSi 84,3%-s Seadgenda, 2006 da 2007 wle-

bSi es maCvenebeli, Sesabamisad, 94.1%-mde da 92,5%-mde gaizarda, rac namdvilad damafiqrebelia.

saerTaSoriso finansebi Sefasebulia rogorc mTliani sagareo valis momsaxurebis (procentulad mTlian

erovnul SemosavlebTan) da moklevadiani valis (procentulad mTliani sagareo valTan) agregatuli ma-

Cvenebeli. Cveni qveynis mixedviT man 133 Seadgina da gadaaWarba saSualo maCvenebels ganxiluli qveynebis

yvela jgufis mixedviT (ganviTarebuli qveynebis garda), rac qveynis sagareo davalianebis tvirTis simZimeze

metyvelebs.

qveynis instituciuri xarisxi regulaciis xarisxisa da korufciis kontrolis maCveneblebiT xasiaTdeba.

regulaciis xarisxi asaxavs mTavrobis politikas biznes-garemos, fasebis kontrolis, sagareo vaWrobisa da

warmoebis ganviTarebis mimarT. korufciis kontrolis maCvenebeli ki, romelic sociologiuri gamokvleve-

bis Sedegebs eyrdnoba, asaxavs korufciis gavrcelebis xarisxs. maRali maCvenebeli miuTiTebs instituciuri

xarisxis ukeTesobaze.

saSualo maCvenebeli yvelaze dabali samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis jgufSi iyo (44),

yvelaze maRali ki _ ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufSi (92). saqarTvelosTvis am maCvenebelma 38 Seadgina da

faqtobrivad gauswro mxolod zogierT postsabWoTa (belorusia _ 27, ruseTi _ 34, ukraina _ 35, azerbaija-

ni _ 36) da afrikis qveyanas (kongos respublika _ 15, angola _ 23, zimbabve _ 25, burundi _ 31, sudani _ 33,

nigeria _ 33, centraluri afrikis respublika _ 35).

aRniSnuli maCveneblis mixedviT Cveni qveynis mdgomareoba marTlac damafiqrebelia. arada, sxva bolo-

droindeli reitingebiT saqarTvelom swored am sferoSi gadainacvla mowinave poziciebze. magaliTad, mso-

flio bankis reitingiT, biznesis warmarTvis simartivis mixedviT saqarTvelom 178 qveyanas Soris 2006 wels

35-e, xolo 2007 wels me-18 adgili daikava. marTalia, biznesis warmarTvis simartivis xarisxi ekonomikis

regulaciis xarisxis mxolod erT komponents _ biznes-garemos liberalizacias axasiaTebs, magram am kompo-

nentis roli Zalze mniSvnelovania.

regulaciis xarisxTan erTad, instituciuri xarisxi korufciis kontrolis maCvenebliTac xasiaTdeba.

saerTaSoriso organizacia Transparency International yovelwliurad aqveynebs qveynebis reitingebs korufciis

aRqmis indeqsis mixedviT. es ukanaskneli mewarmeTa da analitikosTa mier korufciis aRqmis xarisxs asaxavs

da 10-baliani sistemiT afasebs. 10 bali korufciis ararsebobaze miuTiTebs.

2006 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTvelo 163 qveyanas Soris 2,8 quliT 99-e adgilze iyo. 2007 wels saqarTve-

lom korufciis kontrolis maCvenebeli 20 punqtiT gaiumjobesa da 179 qveyanas Soris 79-e adgilze gadai-

nacvla da mniSvnelovnad gauswro imave regionul jgufSi Semaval iseT qveynebs, rogorebicaa somxeTi (99-e

adgili), albaneTi (105-e adgili), moldaveTi (111-e adgili), ekraina (118-e adgili), ruseTi (118-e adgili),

azerbaijani, belorusia, yazaxeTi, yirgizeTi (150-e adgili TiToeuls), TurqmeneTi (162-e adgili) da uzbeke-

Ti (175-e adgili).


17

yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, saeWvoa, rom instituciuri xarisxis maCvenebeli adekvaturad asa-

xavdes saqarTveloSi arsebul viTarebas. yovel SemTxvevaSi, momavalSi am indikatoris mniSvnelovan gaumjo-

besebas SeiZleba velodoT.

qveynebis ekonomikuri struqtura Sefasebulia iseTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa soflis meurneobaSi Se-

qmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. aRniSnuli maCvenebeli tradiciulad dabalia

ganviTarebuli da maRali _ ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis. 123 qveyanas Soris igi 25-dan (gvinea-bisau) 66-mde

meryeobs.

saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi es maCvenebeli 54-s Seadgens, rac axlosaa ganviTarebadi qveynebisa da samxreT-

aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis saSualo maCvenebelTan. aSkaraa, rom saqarTvelos agraruli po-

tenciali arasakmarisadaa CarTuli ekonomikuri zrdis samsaxurSi anu qveynis bunebrivi resursebi (klimati,

niadagi, wyali da a.S.) da maTze dafuZnebuli fardobiTi upiratesobebi jer kidev naklebad aris gamoyene-

buli.

saqarTvelos ekonomikis agraruli seqtoris ganviTarebis realuri perspeqtivis gansazRvris Tvalsa-

zrisiT, damafiqrianebelia saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebSi soflis meurneobaze gaweuli xarjebis dinamika:

2005 weli _ 1,8%, 2006 wels _ 1,6%, 2007 wels _ 1,1%, 2008 wels ki _ 0,9%. am dargis dafinansebis moculoba

absolutur maCveneblebSic mcirdeba. kerZod, 2007 wlisTvis soflis meurneobaze gaweulma xarjebma 2006

wlis analogiuri maCveneblis 84% Seadgina, xolo 2008 wlisTvis gaTvaliswinebulma dafinansebam (49 mln

lari) _ 91,4%.

am fonze garkveul winaaRmdegobas vawydebiT, rodesac vecnobiT 2008-2012 wlebis samTavrobo progra-

mas „erTiani saqarTvelo siRaribis gareSe,` romelic soflis meurneobis efeqtianobis zrdas gvpirdeba da

momavali 5 wlis ganmalobaSi qveynis mTlian eqsportSi am dargis produqciis wilis 25%-mde gazrdas varau-

dobs.

makroekonomikuri stabiluroba samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsisa da mimdinare angariSis balansis (pro-

centulad mTlian Sida produqtTan) bazaze fasdeba. qveynebis mixedviT igi sakmaod did diapazonSi meryeobs:

18-dan (angola, zimbabve) 108-mde (omani, mali).

saqarTvelo am maCvenebliT (84) dasavleTis qveynebs (evrokavSiris axali wevrebis jgufi _ 81 da ganvi-

Tarebuli qveynebis jgufi _ 89) miuaxlovda da mkveTrad aWarbebs saSualo maCveneblebs Tavis regionul

jgufSi (samxreT-aRmosavleT evropa da dsT _ 63).

qveynis makroekonomikuri stabilurobis xarisxis aseTi maRali maCvenebeli aSkara miRwevaa, radgan swo-

red 2006 wlidan daiwyo aRniSnuli indikatoris rogorc erTi, ise meore komponentis gauareseba, rac naTlad

Cans qvemoT motanili monacemebidan.

SedarebiT kargi Sedegi, savaraudod, sxva qveynebSi inflaciis ufro maRali doniT unda iyos ganpirobebu-

li. bolodroindeli realiebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos morigi Sefaseba am sferoSi naklebad saxarbielo

iqneba.

2005 2006 2007

mimdinare angariSis deficiti procentulad mTlian Sida produqtTan 10.9 14.9 19.0

inflacia 6.2 8.8 11.0

cxrili 6.

mimdinare angariSis deficitisa da inflaciis dinamika saqarTveloSi, 2005-2007

wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki


18

garemos sijansaRe, rogorc kompleqsuri fenomeni, raodenobrivad iseT maCveneblebis agregaciiTaa daxasia-

Tebuli, rogoricaa mtknari wylis wvdoma (mosaxleobis wili, visTvisac xelmisawvdomia mtknari wyali), sanita-

ruli wvdoma (mosaxleobis wili, visTvisac xelmisawvdomia adeqvaturi sanitaruli pirobebi) da moxmarebuli

energiis erTeulze myidvelobiTunarianobis paritetiT Sefasebuli mTliani Sida produqti. aRsaniSnavia, rom

qveynebis sxvadasxva jgufebis mixedviT es maCvenebeli TiTqmis erT donezea _ 14-17-is farglebSi, saqarTvelos-

Tvis ki igi 16-s Seadgens.

vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareoba savaWro politikisa da ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT iseTi maCveneble-

biTaa Sefasebuli, rogorebicaa sagareo savaWro gaxsnilobisa (ucxouri saqonlis adgilobriv bazarze SeRwevis

xarisxi) da ucxouri bazrebis wvdomis xarisxi. am maCveneblebiT saqarTvelo Tanabar mdgomareobaSia ara marto

samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebTan, aramed dasavleT evropisa da ganviTarebul qveynebTanac ki.

amaSi mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSa saqarTvelos gawevrianebam vaWrobis msoflio organizaciaSi da sazoga-

dod, sagareo vaWrobis liberalizaciam. sxvadasxva qveynebis mixedviT vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis mdgomareobis

analizi uCvenebs, rom vaWrobis liberalizaciis komponenti mniSvnelovnad ganisazRvravs ganviTarebadi qveynebis

vg-indeqsis sidides. savaWro gaxsnilobis komponentis wvlili vg-indeqsSi 15%-s Seadgens.

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom 2007 wlis 1 seqtembridan saqarTveloSi sabaJo tarifebis umetesi nawili ganulda,

qveynis sagareo savaWro gaxsnilobis morigi maCvenebeli albaT mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba, rasac samwuxarod ver

vetyviT ucxouri bazrebis wvdomis xarisxze.

marTalia, evrokavSirma saqarTvelos GSP+-is reJimiT sargeblobis ufleba 2011 wlamde gauxangrZliva da 7,2

aTasi dasaxelebis produqcia kvlavac sabaJo gadasaxadis gareSe Seva evropul bazarze, magram es aSkarad arasak-

marisi nabijebia: jer erTi, am SeRavaTiT realurad, mxolod 10-mde dasaxelebis produqciis (upiratesad, Txili,

ualkoholo sasmelebi, izotopebi, mwvanili, Tafli da feroSenadnobebi) mwarmoeblebi Tu sargebloben. esec ar

iyos, qarTuli eqsportis umTavres sisustes arasatarifo barierebi warmoadgens, rogorebicaa produqciis teq-

nikuri, sanitaruli, fotosanitaruli da sxva standartebis dacva.

dReisTvis, UNCTAD-is vaWrobis kontrolis Sefasebis kodirebis sistemis mixedviT, asamde gansxvavebuli ara-

satarifo barieria. bevrma qveyanam jer kidev me-20 saukunis 90-ian wlebSi daiwyo sakanonmdeblo bazis srulyofa

maTi gadalaxvisTvis. saqarTvelos ki am mimarTulebiT jer kidev bevri ram aqvs gasakeTebeli.

zemoaRniSnuli faqtoruli maCveneblebis agregaciis Sedegad miRebuli faqtoruli Sefasebis maCvenebeli

(559) wina wlis doneze darCa, Tumca, saqarTvelom 69-e adgilidan 73-e adgilze gadainacvla.

vg-indeqsis Sedegobrivi komponentis misaRebad ki, rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, gamoiyeneba vaWrobis mdgomare-

obisa da ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCveneblebi.

pirveli maTgani daxasiaTebulia iseTi indikatorebiT, rogorebicaa: saqonlis eqsportis wili saqonlis mso-

flio eqsportSi, momsaxurebis eqsportis wili momsaxurebis msoflio eqsportSi, bazris koncentraciis indeqsi

qveynidan saqonlis eqsportisTvis da sagareo vaWrobis (eqsporti-importis jami) Sefardeba mTlian Sida produ-

qtTan.

am maCvenebliT saqarTvelo, romelsac 90 qula aqvs mxolod 6 punqtiT uswrebs ganviTarebadi qveynebis jgu-

fs saSualo maCvenebels da CamorCeba ganxiluli qveynebis sxva jgufebs: samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s

qveynebis jgufs _ 11 punqtiT, evrokavSiris axali wevri qveynebis jgufs _ 18 punqtiT da ganviTarebuli qveynebis

jgufs _ 33 punqtiT.

ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCvenebeli xuT komponents moicavs: keTildReobis indeqss, mosa-

xleobis wignierebis dones, dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobas, qalebisa da mamakacebis Semosav-

lebs Soris Tanafardobas da qalebis wils mTlian samuSao ZalasTan mimarTebaSi. am maCveneblis mixedviT saqar-

Tvelos qulam 299 Seadgina, rac 36 punqtiT sWarbobs analogiur saSualo maCvenebels ganviTarebadi qveynebis

mixedviT.


19

Tumca, CamorCeba saSualo maCvenebels samxreT-aRmosavleT evropisa da dsT-s qveynebis jgufis mixedviT _ 33

punqtiT, evrokavSiris axali wevri qveynebis jgufis mixedviT _ 45 punqtiT da ganviTarebuli qveynebis jgufis

mixedviT _ 96 punqtiT.

vaWrobis mdgomareobisa da ekonomikuri da socialuri keTildReobis maCveneblebis agregaciiT miRebuli

Sedegobrivi Sefasebis jamuri maCvenebeli 7 punqtiT gauaresda da 390 Seadgina, ris gamoc am maCvenebliT saqar-

Tvelom 51-e adgilze gadainacvla, nacvlad manamde dakavebuli 45-e adgilisa.

amdenad, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsis gauaresebasTan erTad, mTeli rigi statistikuri monacemebiT

saqarTvelo mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba danarCen qveynebs, rac ara marto qveynis eqsportze orientaciis mniSvne-

lobis Seufaseblobaze da vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis integraciis dabal xarisxze miuTiTebs, aramed am procesze

moqmedi mTeli rigi faqtorebis Tanmimdevruli, kompleqsuri gadawyvetis aucileblobazec.

10. saimedo statistikis molodinSi

vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis indeqsi erT-erTi TvalsaCino magaliTia imisa, Tu ra seriozuli moTxovnebis wina-

Sea erovnuli statistika, romlisganac msoflio informaciuli sistema moiTxovs adekvatur monacemebs saerTa-

Soriso SedarebebisTvis. am mxriv mTavrobebs sul ufro meti pasuxismgebloba ekisrebaT, Tumca qveynebis mniSv-

nelovani nawili bolomde jer kidev ver an ar acnobierebs saimedo statistikis organizaciis aucileblobas da,

samwuxarod, saqarTvelo maT Sorisaa.

marTalia, ukanasknel periodSi mTavrobis mxridan ukve anonsirebulia statistikis departamentis ekonomi-

kuri ganviTarebis saministrodan gamoyofis da calke struqturad Camoyalibebis gegma, magram misi realizebis

konkretuli vadebi da modeli jerjerobiT mainc naklebad TvalsaCinoa.

udavo faqtia, rom kargi mmarTveloba damokidebulia karg institutebze. am ukanasknelTagan statis-

tikuri samsaxuri prioritetulia, radgan masze mniSvnelovanwilad aris damokidebuli ara marto kargi

mmarTveloba, aramed danarCeni institutebis warmatebuli funqcionirebac. ama Tu im qveynis statistikuri

sistema ara marto mocemuli qveynis, aramed globaluri sainformacio sistemis nawilia.

ama Tu im qveynis miRwevebi Tu Seferxebebi danarCeni samyarosTvis mxolod srulyofili statistikis

enazea gasagebi da xelmisawvdomi. gamoricxuli ar aris, rom saqarTvelos seriozuli CamorCena zemoT moyva-

nili zogierTi maCveneblis mixedviT msoflios danarCeni qveynebis, gansakuTrebiT ki dabalganviTarebuli

qveynebis, maCveneblenTan SedarebiT, swored statistikuri monacemebis simwiriT iyos gamowveuli.

sayovelTaod aRiarebulia, rom statistika Zviri fufunebaa, magram aucilebelia, rom saxelmwifom Tavisi ganviTa-

rebis ama Tu im etapze sworad gansazRvros prioritetebi am sferoSi da upasuxos kiTxvas: ra ufro Zviri ujdeba mas _

kargi statistika, Tu statistikis arqona. albaT, udavoa, rom es ukanaskneli sazogadoebas ufro Zvirad ujdeba.

sagulisxmoa is garemoeba, rom saqarTvelo, romelic evropasTan integraciisken iswrafvis, mTeli rigi

maCveneblebiT (adamianuri kapitali, fizikuri infrastruqtura, safinanso Suamavloba, Sida finansebi, ins-

tituciuri xarisxi, ekonomikis struqtura) mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba TviT evrokavSirTan uaxloes warsulSi

mierTebul qveynebs. am maCveneblebSi gansxvavebis Semcirebisken swrafva Sesabamis sferoSi qveynis ekonomiku-

ri politikis srulyofis aucilebel orientirad unda iqces.

rogorc zemoT motanil monacemTa Sedarebebi cxadyofs, vaWrobisa da ganviTarebis sferoSi saqarTvelos

CamorCenis erT-erTi seriozuli mizezi adamianuri kapitalis rolis araadeqvaturi Sefasebaa, romelic gasu-

li saukunis 90-ian wlebSi iRebs saTaves. qveyanaSi ganviTarebuli ekonomikuri da socialuri kataklizmebi gan-

sakuTrebiT mwvaved ganaTlebis sistemaze aisaxa, Tumca, am sferoSi dagrovili problemebis daZlevis efeqtiani

strategia, garkveuli mcdelobebis miuxedavad, jer kidev ar gamokveTila.


20

yvelaze uxeSi SefasebebiT, dReisaTvis saqarTveloSi samuSao Zalis yvelaze aqtiuri nawili _ daaxloebiT 45

wlamde asakis mosaxleoba ar flobs dasaqmebisa da sazogadoebaSi Rirseuli adgilis dasakaveblad aucilebel

ganaTlebasa da profesionalizms, samuSao Cvevebsa da gamocdilebas. am asaks zemoT myofi mosaxleoba, romelic,

met-naklebad, yvela am cenzs akmayofilebs, samuSao adgilebis simciris gamo, moklebulia Tavisi profesiona-

lizmisa da unar-Cvevebis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. swored es aris mizezi imisa, rom aqtiuri mosaxleobis didi

nawili emigrirebulia sazRvargareT da mxolod fuladi gzavnilebis saxiT SeuZliaT qveynis ekonomikur cxo-

vrebaSi monawileobis miReba.

adamianuri kapitalis saTanadod Seufasebloba ekonomikuri politikis erT-erTi umTavresi Cavardnaa.

qveynis saeqsporto SesaZleblobebis arasaTanado Sefaseba da misi ekonomikuri zrdis samsaxurSi Cayenebis

realuri xedvis nakleboba ekonomikuri zrdis meore xelisSemSleli faqtoria. vg-indeqsis ganmsazRvreli

faqtorebisa da maCveneblebis analizi cxadyofs, rom sakmaod dabalia qveynis fardobiTi upiratesobebis,

kerZod, geopolitikuri, satranzito, agraruli, rekreaciuli potencialis gamoyenebis done.

saeqsporto SesaZleblobebi gafarToebis mamoZravebel Zalad da katalizatorad ganviTarebuli qveynebis

bazrebze wvdoma unda iqces, risTvisac unda daCqardes saerTaSoriso standartebis damkvidreba da xarisxis

erovnuli infrastruqturis Seqmna. aRniSnulis miRweva saxelmwifos politikuri nebisa da Zalisxmevis gareSe

warmoudgenelia. mTavrobis ekonomikuri programis erT-erT wamyvan prioritetad saeqsporto warmoebaSi adgi-

lobrivi da ucxouri investiciebis mozidvis xelSewyoba unda iqces. investiciebis, romelTa soliduri wili

adgilobriv mrewvelobaSi unda dabanddes.

11. samrewvelo evolucia

qarTuli mrewvelobis dafinansebis da momavali gamowvevebis sakiTxi pirdapir ukavSirdeba rogorc sava-

Wro politikis reformirebis, aseve dasaqmebis umwvaves problematikas. 2007 wels saqarTvelos mrewveloba

erTob dinamikuri iyo. misi wliuri zrdis tempi, romelmac 13,8% Seadgina, sagrZnoblad aRemateboda mTeli

ekonomikis zrdas (12,4%).

es Zlieri zrda, uwinares yovlisa, saqarTvelos ekonomikis gajansaRebis jer kidev mimdinare process

asaxavs, romelic bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi STambeWdavi gaumjobesebis miuxedavad, mainc Zalze CamorCeba

sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodamde arsebul dones. evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankis

90

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

grafiki 2. mSp-is dinamika da mrewvelobis zrda (%)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

realuri mSp (1998 -100) samrewvelo produqcia (1998 - 100)

wyaro: saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamenti


21

monacemebiT, 2007 wels saqarTvelos mSp-s 1989 wlis donis mxolod 61% Seadgina. evropis rekonstruqciisa da

ganviTarebis bankis mier Seswavlil qveynebs Soris yvelaze dabali maCvenebeli am mxriv moldaveTs aqvs (51%),

saqarTvelos mezobeli somxeTi da azerbaijani ki, Sesabamisad, 137%-iT da 159%-iT, saukeTesoTa Soris arian

miuxedavad imisa, rom SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg maTac gadaitanes.

zrdis maRali tempis miuxedavad, mrewvelobis seqtors amJamad saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi Zalze mokr-

Zalebuli wili aqvs. resursebiT mdidar ekonomikaSi, rogoric azerbaijani da ruseTia, es Tanafardoba

aSkarad maRalia, Tumca, igi aseve sakmaod maRalia iseT SedarebiT mcire zomis ekonomikebSic, rogoricaa

estoneTi da ungreTi, rom araferi vTqvaT CexeTze.

statistikuri Sedareba da faqtobrivi monacemebic imaze metyvelebs, rom saqarTvelo Tavisi samrewvelo

potencialis Zalze mcire nawils iyenebs. jerac ar momxdara gardamavali periodis sawyis etapze miyenebuli

zianis kompensireba, rodesac jarTi wlebis manZilze, qarTuli eqsportis umsxviles sasaqonlo kategoriad

iqca.

amis mizezi nawilobriv isic aris, rom privatizaciiT ZiriTadad insaiderebma da araefeqtianma „wiTel-

ma direqtorebma` isargebles, romlebmac xelT igdes industrialuri aqtivebi. da es moxda saqarTvelos

mrewvelobis zogierT tradiciul seqtorSi gamokveTili fardobiTi upiratesobebis miuxedavad, romlebic

dakavSirebulia bunebriv resursebTan (noyieri niadagi iseT damatebuli Rirebulebis Semcvleli sasoflo-

sameurneo produqtebis warmoebisTvis, rogoricaa xili, bostneuli, Rvino, xorci da rZe; aseve miwisqveSa

mineraluri resursebi), jer kidev iaf muSaxelTan (miuxedavad imisa, rom oficialurad statistikis monace-

mebiT, realuri xelfasebi 2003-2006 wlebSi 77%-iT gaizarda) da aSkarad idealur geografiul mdebareobas-

Tan im gzajvaredinze, romliTac evropa dinamikur ekonomikur zonas _ azias ukavSirdeba.

12. seqtoruli rentgeni

saqarTvelos mrewvelobis rekonstruqciis amJamindeli procesis analizi sxvadasxva komponentis mixed-

viT SeiZleba. oficialuri statistikiT, 2007 wels samrewvelo warmoebis 70,1% gadamamuSavebel mrewvelo-

baze modioda. sididiT momdevnoa eleqtroenergiis, bunebrivi airisa da wylis miwodeba (21,4%) da samTomo-

povebiTi mrewveloba (8,5%). bolo or seqtors didi, gamouyenebeli potenciali gaaCnia. es gansakuTrebiT

hidroenergiis gamomuSavebaze iTqmis, romelic prioritetul seqtorad ganisazRvra. am seqtorSi saqarTve-

los advilad SeuZlia iqces msxvil eqsportiorad, gansakuTrebiT mezobel TurqeTSi. sakmaod STambeWdavia

samTomopovebiTi mrewvelobis ganviTarebac.

rac Seexeba gadamamuSavebel mrewvelobas, aq mdgomareoba gansxvavebulia. 2007 wels am seqtorSi oTxi

qveseqtori dominirebda (mTeli warmoebis TiTqmis 84%): lomis wili (43%) sakvebis, sasmelis da Tambaqos

warmoebaze modioda, mas 17%-ani wiliT pirveladi da warmoebuli liTonis produqtebi mosdevda (ZiriTadad,

feroSenadnobebi, romelic dRes saeqsporto saqonlis pirvel kategorias warmoadgens). momdevno poziciebi

15%-iani wiliT sxva araliTonisSemcvel mineralur produqtebs (upiratesad, cementi) da 9%-iani wiliT qi-

miuri mrewvelobis produqcias ekava.

Tu TiToeuli qvekomponentis dinamikas davakvirdebiT, davinaxavT sakmaod did sxvaobas sakvebi, sasme-

li da Tambaqos warmoebisa da yvela sxva seqtors Soris. maTi zrdis tempi nominalur gamosaxulebaSi 2005-

2007 wlebSi aseTi iyo: sxva araliTonisSemcveli mineraluri produqtebi _171%, rezini da plastmasi _

94%, pirveladi da warmoebuli liTonis produqtebi _ 84%, qimiuri produqtebi _ 61%, qaRaldis warmoeba

da beWdviTi produqcia _ 61%, satransporto aRWurviloba _ 59%, sakvebi, sasmeli da Tambaqos produqcia

_ 20%.


22

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT sakveb produqtebze fasebis zrdis SedarebiT maRal temps, unda vivaraudoT, rom

saqarTvelos industriis es seqtori praqtikulad ar gazrdila an odnavi klebac ki ganicada, miuxedavad imi-

sa, rom sakvebi produqtebis adgilobrivi moxmareba sakmaod intensiuria. gansakuTrebiT, iseT produqtebTan

mimarTebaSi, rogoricaa rZis nawarmi, xili da bostneuli.

sakvebi produqciis seqtoris naklebi ganviTareba seriozuli SeSfoTebis sagania. es mxolod nawilo-

briv SeiZleba aixsnas qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylis eqsportze ruseTis mier dawesebuli embargos

gavleniT. samwuxarod, es ufro saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis Rrma struqturul krizisze miuTiTebs,

romlis dasaZlevad xelisuflebas jerjerobiT raime damajerebeli kompleqsuri ekonomikuri politika ar

warmoudgenia.

saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba, romelzec mTliani dasaqmebis 55,6% modis, warmoebis moculobisa da mwar-

moeblurobis donis mxriv iseT niSnulebze `gaiyina~, romlebic saharis samxreTiT mdebare afrikuli qveynebis

doneebs Tu Seesabameba (magaliTad, erT Zroxaze rZis wliuri warmoeba, gaeros-s sursaTisa da soflis meur-

neobis organizaciis (FAO) monacemebis mixedviT, mxolod 937 kg-s Seadgens maSin, rodesac somxeTSi Sesabamisi

maCvenebeli 1965 kg, xolo ruseTSi _ 3221 kg-ia).

mzardi adgilobrivi moTxovnis miuxedavad, 2007 wels sasoflo-sameurneo produqcia 1989 wlis dones

mxolod 8%-iT aRemateba, maSin, rodesac samrewvelo produqciis zrdam imave periodSi 85% Seadgina. kve-

bis mrewvelobis umTavresi problema saqarTveloSi pirveladi sasoflo-sameurneo warmoebis mniSvnelovani

gaumjobesebis arsebobaa. agraruli produqciis gadamamuSavebelma yvela wamyvanma kompaniam, nedleuli an

ucxoeTidan unda Semoitanos an adgilze sakuTari sanedleule bazis SeqmnaSi unda moaxdinos investireba,

rac im finansuri da menejeruli resursebis sxva mimarTulebiT warmarTvas iwvevs, romlebsac kompaniebi

ukeT gamoiyenebdnen ZiriTad biznesSi.

saqarTvelos mrewvelobis ganviTarebis meore mniSvnelovani Semaferxebeli garemoeba Sesabamis ganaTlebaze

gaweuli danaxarjebis simcirea. arada, yvela kargi maCveneblebis mqone qveyana (magaliTad, slovenia da baltiis-

pireTis saxelmwifoebi) ganviTarebis strategias ufro da ufro maRalteqnologiur saqmianobebze afuZneben,

ageben da TiTqmis 4-jer mets abandeben am seqtorSi, vidre saqarTvelo. sxva qveynebi ki, magaliTad, moldova,

romelic saqarTvelos msgavsad ucxoeTSi masobrivi migraciiT zaraldeba, iZulebulia biujetis didi nawi-

li adamianuri kapitalis eqsportis kompensaciaze daxarjos, vinaidan icis, rom emigraciaSi xSirad yvelaze

niWieri da mewarmeobis unariT dajildovebuli moqalaqeebi midian.

adamianur kapitalSi arasakmarisi investirebis uSualo Sedegia muSaxelis anazRaurebis swrafi zrda.

mrewvelobaSi saSualo Tviuri xelfasi 2004 wlis 201 laridan (104 dolari) 2006 wels 308 laramde (173 do-

lari), 2007 wlis bolosTvis ki 396 laramde (236 dolari) gaizarda.

ganaTleba rom mTavar Semaferxebel faqtors ar warmoadgendes, muSaxelis anazRaurebis zrda gacilebiT

naklebi iqneboda. jer erTi imitom, rom saqarTveloSi kvlav aris masStaburi faruli umuSevroba da formalur

ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa raodenoba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis erT mesamedze naklebs da mTeli mo-

saxleobis 13%-s Seadgens. amitom muSaxelze moTxovnis zrdas axali adamianebis dasaqmeba unda gamoewevia da ara

xelfasebis zrda.

meore mizezi, rasac aseTi Sedegi unda gamoeRo, aris is, rom dRes Zalze cota ekonomika Tu moiZebneba

msoflioSi, sadac ise advilia mSromelTa daqiraveba da gaTavisufleba, rogorc saqarTveloSi.

faqtobrivi monacemebi gviCvenebs, rom ganaTlebis problema, upirveles yovlisa, saSualo donis menej-

ments exeba. saqarTveloSi kvlav aris kargi ganaTlebis mqone elita, romelsac xSirad ganaTleba dasavleTSi

aqvT miRebuli, magram ar aris saSualo done, romelic strategiul rols TamaSobs ganviTarebul ekonomi-

kebSi.


23

13. `dieturi~ investireba

saTanado donis muSaxelTan erTad, investiciebi manqana-danadgarebsa da sxva kapitalSi nebismieri

industriuli ganviTarebis meore mTavari komponentia, vinaidan mrewveloba, Cveulebriv, ufro kapitalte-

vadi dargia, vidre ekonomikis sxva seqtorebi, kerZod, momsaxurebis seqtori.

am TvalsazrisiT, bolo statistikuri monacemebi araerTgvarovan signalebs gvaZlevs. 2007 wels Ziri-

Tad kapitalSi mxolod 311 milioni laris investicia ganxorcielda, rac saqarTveloSi dabandebuli mTeli

investiciebis 6%-s Seadgens. investiciebis zrdam mrewvelobaSi 2007 wels wina wlebTan SedarebiT, nomi-

nalur gamosaxulebaSi 50% Seadgina. magram Tu mwarmoebelTa fasebis indeqsis zrdas gaviTvaliswinebT,

aRniSnuli sainvesticio nakadebis moculoba, gaumjobesebuli biznes-klimatis miuxedavad, ufro naklebi

aRmoCndeba, vidre aTwleulis dasawyisSi iyo.

samrewvelo produqciis dinamikasa da mrewvelobaSi investirebis dinamikas Soris Zalze didi gansxva-

vebis pirveli mizezi is aris, rom mimdinare zrda ZiriTadad ekonomikis aRdgenis process asaxavs, radgan

saqarTvelo jerac mniSvnelovnad CamorCeba sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodamdel arsebul war-

moebis dones.

amitom, samrewvelo kompaniebma jerjerobiT mxolod gamouyenebeli simZlavreebiis amoqmedeba SeZles

da TavianTi mcire investiciebi warmoebis procesis `minimalur~ gaumjobesebaSi daabandes. praqtikulad

aranairi investicia ar iyo saWiro samrewvelo Senoba-nagebobebsa da ZiriTad infrastruqturaSi. mzardi

raodenobiT mxolod manqana-danadgarebi iqna Sesyiduli, romelTa importic 2007 wels mniSvnelovnad gai-

zarda.

aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, ikveTeba, rom samrewvelo kompaniebis `Tavisufali zrdis~ periodi dasas-

ruls uaxlovdeba. sicocxlisunariani samrewvelo kompaniebis umetesoba ukve TiTqmis sruli simZlavriT

muSaobs da cdilobs axali simZlavreebis amoqmedebiT daakmayofilos gazrdili moTxovna, romelsac mo-

cemul etapze umTavresad adgilobrivi bazari qmnis. am TvalsazrisiT, samrewvelo investiciebis mateba

SeiZleba axali tendenciis pirveli niSani iyos.

40

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

grafiki 3. mrewvelobaSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis wliuri nakadebi da

samrewvelo warmoeba (2001 = 100)

2001

100.0107.3

65.6

74.1

62.4

50.7

66.2

108.5116.7

121.5

135.5

155.7

177.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

investiciebi mrewvelobaSi samrewvelo warmoeba (%)

wyaro: saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros statistikis departamenti


24

14. dakreditebis zigzagebi

bolo 5 weliwadSi sabanko sistemis ganviTareba marTlac STambeWdavia. saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis

monacemebiT, 2003 wlis miwurulsa da 2007 wlis dasasruls Soris sabanko seqtoris moTxovna rezidenti iu-

ridiuli da fizikuri pirebis mimarT 5,9-jer _ 748 milioni laridan 4421 milion laramde gaizarda, mTliani

kreditis mSp-Tan Sefardebam ki 8,7%-dan 26,1%-s miaRwia.

sanam detalurad ganvixilavT sakredito portfelis dinamikas, sainteresoa saqarTvelos sabanko siste-

mis raodenobrivi monacemebis sxva gardamaval qveynebTan Sedareba evrobankis (EBRD) cifrebze dayrdnobiT.

gardamavali ekonomikis 20 qveyanas Soris, kerZo sawarmoebis adgilobrivi dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefarde-

bebis mixedviT saqarTvelo naklebad STambeWdavad gamoiyureboda. ufro dabali maCveneblebi qveyanaTa am

jgufSi mxolod azerbaijans, somxeTsa da yirgizeTs hqondaT.

aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, am cifrebis yuradRebiT gaanalizebaa saWiro. pirveli Sefardeba, albaT, ar

aris Zalze mniSvnelovani, vinaidan bevri kompania saqarTveloSic da sazRvargareTac saxsrebs gareSe (ara-

adgilobrivi) wyaroebidanac sesxulobs. meore mizezi, ris gamoc sifrTxile gvmarTebs is aris, rom mTliani

kreditis mSp-Tan Sefardeba qveynebis mixedviT ar aris erTgvarovani. es maCvenebeli, bunebrivia, qveynebis

ganviTarebis dones asaxavs.

Cveulebriv, rac ufro ganviTarebulia qveyana, miT ufro maRalia misi kreditebis Sefardeba mSp-Tan. ami-

tom azri ara aqvs saqarTvelos dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebis Sedarebas, magaliTad, sloveniis Sesabamis

maCvenebelTan, vinaidan am qveynis mSp 11-jer aRemateba saqarTvelosas.

Tu erT sul mosaxleze mSp-is donesa da dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebis korelacias movaxdenT da Tu

fokuss eqskluziurad SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis mSp-Tan Sefardebaze gavakeTebT, romelic gamoricxavs

did cdomilebas samrewvelo kompaniebis mier ucxoeTidan mozidul finansebSi, sul sxva suraTs miviRebT:

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

grafiki 4.

mTliani krediti / mSp (%)

8.7

5.7

3.0

1.9 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

sesxebi rezident iuridiul da fizikur pirebze, mSp-is %

sesxebi rezident iuridiul pirebze, mSp-is %

sesxebi fizikur pirebze, mSp-is %

mrewvelobis dakrediteba, mSp-is %

wyaro: saqarTvelos erovnuli banki

9.6

14.6

19.1

26.1

6.8

10.4

13.5

16.9

2.84.2

5.6

9.3


25

saqarTvelos sabanko seqtori naklebad ganviTarebuli ki ara, `zeganviTarebuli~ SeiZleba iyos ekonomikis

danarCen dargebTan SedarebiT.

saqarTvelos mSp 2006 wels 2,5-jer meti unda yofiliyo, raTa SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis done `ga-

marTlebulad~ CaTvliliyo. 2007 wels ukve SinameurneobaTa `Warbi dakreditebis~ zonaSi unda SevsuliyaviT,

vinaidan kreditebi nominalur gamosaxulebaSi 103%-iT gaizarda da mSp-is 9,3% Seadgina, rac ufro maRalia,

vidre es ruseTs 2006 wels hqonda miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTis mSp erT sul mosaxleze 4-jer aRemateba

saqarTvelos Sesabamis maCvenebels.

statistikuri monacemebi aSkarad aisaxeba yoveldRiur cxovrebaSi, sadac samomxmareblo saqonliT va-

Wrobis bumis aSkara niSnebi ikveTeba. magaliTad, avtomobilebis importi, romelic ZiriTadad samomxmareblo

kreditebiT finansdeba, 2004 wlis 116 milioni dolaridan 2007 wlis 370 milion dolaramde gaizarda, 2006-

2007 wlebSi macivrebisa da sarecxi manqanebis importma ki 112%-iT imata. TbilisSi kreditebiT parfiumerii-

sa da tansacmlis SeZenac ki SesaZlebeli gaxda.

SinameurneobaTa dakreditebis aseTi dinamikis pirobebSi, romelic swrafi zrdiT xasiaTdeba, bankebis-

Tvis mrewveloba ar warmoadgens strategiul seqtors. marTalia, mrewvelobis dakrediteba 2003 wlis bolos

minimaluri, 18 milioni laris donidan 2007 wlis bolos 211 milion laramde gaizarda, magram ganaxevrda misi

wili mTlian sakredito portfelSi _ 2003 wels mrewvelobaze bankebis sakredito dabandebaTa 21,6% modio-

da, oTxi wlis Semdeg ki am maCvenebelma mxolod 11,9% Seadgina.

adgilobrivi krediti

kerZo sawarmoebs /

mSp (%)

adgilobrivi krediti

Sinameurneobebs / mSp (%)

mTliani krediti

arasaxelmwifo

msesxeblebs / mSp (%)

mSp erT sul mosaxleze

(aSS dolari)

estoneTi 78.4 38.7 117.1 12209

latvia 77.8 38.0 115.9 8760

xorvatia 68.7 38.2 106.9 9582

slovenia 67.1 17.0 84.1 19218

ungreTi 54.6 18.5 73.1 11127

litva 47.7 17.9 65.6 8770

bulgareTi 47.4 16.6 64.0 4088

yazaxeTi 48.1 15.8 63.9 5221

ukraina 44.9 15.3 60.2 2258

CexeTi 39.9 16.5 56.4 13896

slovakeTi 39.2 13.1 52.3 10250

poloneTi 33.4 15.6 49.0 8939

yofili iugoslaviis

respublika makedonia31.0 9.6 40.6 3113

ruseTi 31.0 7.1 38.1 6874

rumineTi 26.3 11.2 37.5 5617

moldova 27.9 2.9 30.8 988

saqarTvelo 19.7 5.6 25.3 1721

azerbaijani 12.4 4.1 16.5 2363

somxeTi 8.7 4.1 12.8 1989

yirgizeTi 10.5 2.2 12.7 549

cxrili 7.

wyaro: EBRD


26

msgavsi suraTia iuridiuli pirebis dakreditebis qvekomponentSic. 2003 wels mrewvelobaze modioda misi

32,9%, 2007 wels ki am seqtoris wilma mxolod 18,4% Seadgina. es maCvenebeli bevrad dabalia vaWrobis dakre-

ditebis wilze, romelsac bankebi gansakuTrebiT swyaloben (47,7%) da TiTqmis uTanabrdeba mSeneblobisa da

uZravi qonebis dakreditebis wils (15,5%).

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom es qvekomponenti mxolod iuridiul pirebs exeba da ar moicavs individebze

gacemul ipoTekur sesxebs, romlebic bolo wlebSi sakmaod STambeWdavad izrdeba, davinaxavT, rom bankebi

ZiriTadad fokusirebulebi arian moxmarebis (importis) da uZravi qonebis dafinansebaze. es namdvilad ar

aris pozitiuri Sedegi, gansakuTrebiT Tu gaviTvaliswinebT im politikur da makroekonomikur gamowvevebs,

romlebsac saqarTvelo kvlav awydeba Tavisi ekonomikis gajansaRebis gzaze.

15. sabanko wnexi

saqarTvelos sabanko seqtori, romelmac Zalian swrafi raodenobrivi zrda ganicada, magram Tvisobrivad

bevri araferi Secvlila, axla ganviTarebis axal fazaSi unda Sevides. imisTvis, rom sakuTari wvlili Seita-

nos saqarTvelos grZelvadian mdgrad ganviTarebaSi, igi ufro metad unda gaxdes fokusirebuli msoflio

bazrebze savaWro produqciis warmoebisa da momsaxurebis dafinansebaze. Tu ara da saqarTvelo SeiZleba im

qveynebis grZel siaSi aRmoCndes (magaliTad, Cile 1982 wlis, meqsika 1994 wlis an samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis

qveynebi 1997 wlis krizisebamde), romlebmac mwvave krizisebi gadaitanes ZiriTadad sabanko sistemebis ganvi-

Tarebis araadeqvaturi modelebis gamo.

Tu bankebisa da industriuli seqtoris urTierTobas davakvirdebiT, Tvisobrivi evoluciis dawyebis

Zalze fermkrTal niSnebs davinaxavT. magaliTad, mrewvelobaze gacemuli kreditebi sul ufro metadaa de-

nominirebuli larSi (2007 wels sakredito portfelis 40% maSin, rodesac 2003 wels es maCvenebeli 11,1%

iyo), rac msesxeblebisTvis valutis gacvliTi kursis cvlebadobis nakleb risks Seicavs.

magram, mniSvnelovani evolucia ar SeiniSneba kreditis xangrZlivobasTan dakavSirebiT, rac erT-erTi

ZiriTadi faqtoria, rodesac saqme grZelvadian investiciebTan gvaqvs. 2003 wels erT welze meti vadianobis

iyo samrewvelo kompaniebisTvis gacemuli sesxebis 48,8%, 2005 wels am kategoriis sesxebi 64,7%-s aRwevda, ma-

gram Semdeg maTi wili Semcirda da 2007 wels mxolod 59,9% Seadgina. samrewvelo kreditebis wili erT welze

meti vadianobis kreditebis saerTo moculobaSi 2007 wels didi ar iyo _ sul 15,5%, anu am kategoriis mTel

kreditebSi, romlebmac 2 miliard 34 milioni lari Seadgina, mxolod 315 milion dolars aRwevda.

ekonomikur istoriaSi xSirad davoben, rom bankebis survilis, daafinanson mrewveloba, erT-erTi ganmsa-

zRvreli faqtoria maTi SesaZlebloba, moizidon grZelvadiani resursebi. Tu es SesaZlebloba ar arsebobs,

mrewvelobis dafinansebis msurveli bankebi SeiZleba TavianTi moklevadiani valdebulebebis (depozitebi)

grZelvadian aqtivebTan (grZelvadiani sesxebi samrewvelo kompaniebSi grZelvadiani investiciebis dasafi-

nanseblad) SeuTavseblobis problemis winaSe aRmoCndnen. aman ki SezRuduli likvidurobis periodebSi, risi

momswrenic Tundac amJamad varT, bankebis gakotreba SeiZleba gamoiwvios.

kontinentur evropaSi manamde, sanam 1980-ian wlebSi didi finansuri deregulireba moxdeboda, grZelva-

diani aqtivebis dafinansebaSi sakmaod aqtiur rols TamaSobdnen saxelmwifoebi. isini pirdapir afinansebdnen

grZelvadian aqtivebs ganviTarebuli bankebis meSveobiT, an iribad, erovnuli bankebis grZelvadiani portfele-

bis refinansirebis gziT. upiratesoba samrewvelo kompaniebis balansebSi am dros aqciasTan SedarebiT kredits

eniWeboda, vinaidan aRniSnul kompaniebs SedarebiT advilad miuwvdebodaT xeli subsidirebul kreditebze.

kontinenturi evropis am modelma saSualeba misca Sesabamisi qveynebis ekonomikebs, swrafad dasweodnen

bevrad ufro win wasul britanul da amerikul ekonomikebs. gasakviri ar aris, rom 1930-ian wlebSi aRniSnuli


27

modelis kopireba sistematurad xdeboda laTinur amerikaSi (ganviTarebis banki braziliaSi, ekonomikuri gan-

viTarebis saagento CileSi, ganviTrebis safinanso instituti meqsikaSi), mogvianebiT ki iaponiaSi, koreasa da

taivanSi. magram, droTa ganmavlobaSi es modeli mZime tvirTad daawva saxelmwifo biujetebs, ramac misi Tan-

daTanobiT SezRudva, bevr SemTxvevaSi ki gauqmebac gamoiwvia, Tumca zogierT qveyanaSi ganviTarebis bankebi

kvlavac mniSvnelovan rols TamaSoben. amis kargi magaliTia germanuli KFW jgufi _ germaniis ganviTarebis

sakredito bankis cnobili instituti.

dRes saqarTveloSic msjeloben saxelmwifos SesaZlo rolze `produqtiuli~ ekonomikis dafinansebaSi.

ufro metic, saxelmwifo `iafi sesxis~ iniciativiT gamovida da dRes mis gafarToebasac apirebs. bevrma es

iniciativebi gaakritika, rogorc populisturi reagireba socialur problemebze, romlebic bolodroin-

deli politikuri ukmayofilebis safuZveli gaxda. cxadia, arc uamisobaa, magram gadawyvetilebis mimRebebs

Soris arsebobs gancda, rom meore Taobis reformebma, romlebic xels uwyobs investiciebsa da samuSao

adgilebis Seqmnaze orientirebul maRalefeqtian zrdas, moxmarebasa da aramdgrad importze dafuZnebuli

naklebadefeqtiani zrda unda Caanacvlos.

miuxedavad imisa, rom analitikosebi mudmivad usvamdnen xazs ufro maRalefeqtiani zrdis aucileblobas,

iafi sesxebiT produqtiuli ekonomikis dakreditebis idea naadrevia da albaT, usargebloc. jer erTi imitom,

rom saxelmwifos mmarTvelobis bolodroindeli gaumjobesebis miuxedavad, jer kidev ar miuRwevia efeqtiano-

bis da neitralobis iseTi donisTvis, romelic sakmarisi iqneboda subsidirebuli dakreditebis gansakuTrebiT

mgrZnobiare gamowvevebis sapasuxod.

meorec, jerjerobiT ar Cans aseTi sqemebis aSkara aucilebloba: komerciuli bankebis kapitalis Sefar-

deba kerZo seqtorze gacemul mTlian kreditTan saukeTesoa (seb-is monacemebis mixedviT 32,1% 2007 wlis

bolos), rac saSualebas aZlevs bankebs, grZelvadiani kreditebi TavianTi kapitalidan daafinanson. garda

amisa, grZelvadiani portfelebis refinansirebisaTvis maTTvis advilad xelmisawvdomia saerTaSoriso safi-

nanso institutebis iafi grZelvadiani resursebi. es institutebi Tavad arian mzad, uSualod daafinanson

sesxiT da uzrunvelyon kapitaliT ufro meti samrewvelo kompania saqarTveloSi.

komerciuli bankebisa da saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis warmomadgenlebTan diskusiebis dros

xSirad ikveTeba wuxili, rom maT meti samrewvelo proeqtis dafinanseba surdaT, magram ver moZebnes sakmari-

si raodenobis kargi proeqti. amrigad, problema ara valdebulebebis, aramed aqtivebis mxaresaa. Tumca, arc

meore mxarea pretenziebis gareSe: bevri samrewvelo kompania aseve Civis, rom maTTvis ar aris advili sabanko

kreditis miReba da Zalze cota banks Tu hyavs gamocdili korporatiuli bankirebi, rom araferi vTqvaT

sainvesticio bankebis arsebobaze.

amaSic aris garkveuli simarTle, rasac ganaTlebaSi zemoT naxseneb problemebTan mivyavarT. mravali

niWieri adamianis emigraciis Sedegad, rodesac bevri qarTveli ucxoeTSi warmatebuli mewarmea, saqarTvelo

axla dekapitalizaciis winaSe dgas. bevri kargi sainvesticio SesaZleblobebis miuxedavad, cotaa sainvesti-

cio proeqti, vinaidan Zalian cotaa kvalificiuri mewarme.

am fonze, gasakviri ar aris, rom saqarTvelos bankebma sainvesticio bankebiviT daiwyes moqmedeba. TavianT

saaqcio kapitals zogierTi maTgani sakuTar klient-kompaniebSi abandeben: es procesi sakmaod TvalsaCino

iyo 2007 wels, rodesac adgilobrivi bankebis kapitaluri investiciebi ianvarSi 49 milioni laridan dekem-

berSi 215 milion laramde gaizarda.

radgan bankebi, Cveulebriv TavianT investiciebs SedarebiT mokle periodiT sazRvraven, isini albaT,

Seecdebian mogeba miiRon am kompaniebis aqciebis safondo birJaze kotirebiT. aman SeiZleba TandaTan adgi-

lobrivi finansuri bazris realur ganviTarebamde migviyvanos, romelic dReisTvis Zalze SezRudulia (2006

wels safondo birJis mTliani kapitalizacia mSp-is mxolod 8,3%-s Seadgenda, rodesac ruseTis Sesabamisi

maCvenebeli 104% iyo).


28

16. kvanZis gasakveTad

rogorc vnaxeT, arsebobs instituciuri Seusabamoba bankebsa da samrewvelo kompaniebs Soris erTmaneTis

molodinebis dakmayofilebis TvalsazrisiT. es Seusabamoba Cans msoflio bankis `biznesis warmarTvis~ 2008

wlis angariSSi: saqarTvelos reitingi, romelic zogadad Zalian kargia, saSualoa kreditis miRebis (48-e

pozicia) da kontraqtebis Sesrulebis (42) niSniT da dabali _ biznesis daxurvis niSniT (105). awydebian ra

xangrZliv Seferxebebs da sakmaod maRal xarjebs TavianTi uflebis ganxorcielebaSi da giraos gamoyenebaSi,

bankebi eridebian samrewvelo kompaniebisTvis sesxis micemas, radgan ician, rom maTi sabuRaltro aRricxva,

miuxedavad bolodroindeli mniSvnelovani gaumjobesebisa, kvlav garkveul eWvebs badebs.

am problemebis gadasalaxad, albaT, xeli unda Seewyos samrewvelo manqanebis da mowyobilobis lizingis

sistematur gamoyenebas, gansakuTrebiT, mcire da saSualo zomis samrewvelo kompaniebis SemTxvevaSi. li-

zingis amRebis mier valdebulebis Susruleblobis SemTxvevaSi, lizingiT gamcem kompanias ar sWirdeba sasa-

marTloSi wasvla lizingiT gacemuli aqtivebis dasabruneblad, vinaidan isini misi sakuTrebaa da yvelaferi

iolad gvardeba.

dRemde, saqarTveloSi, lizingis ganviTareba ferxdeba sagadasaxado xarvezebis gamo, vinaidan igi dRg-iT

ibegreba. es ki am sicocxlisunarian da martiv finansur instuments nakleb mimzidvels xdis imave saqonlis

saSualovadiani kreditiT dafinansebasTan SedarebiT, vinaidan sargebeli, romelic lizingis qiraSi devs _

ibegreba, saSualovadiani kreditis sargebeli ki _ ara.

garda amisa, saWiroa, rac SeiZleba swrafad Seicvalos saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis midgoma saqar-

Tvelos ekonomikis dafinansebisadmi. aSkaraa, rom maTi keTilganwyoba im bankebisadmi, romlebsac afinanseben,

ar aris usafrTxo. ra azri aqvs e.w. mcire da saSualo sawarmoebis dafinansebas, Tu es sawarmoebi umeteswilad

savaWro kompaniebia, romlebic imports axorcieleben?

an ratom finansdeboda uZravi qoneba ase ganurCevlad im dros, rodesac misi sarisko bumis niSnebi ikveTebo-

da bazris yvela segmentze? bolodroindelma movlenebma aCvena, rom es kiTxvebi sruliad legitimuria da pasuxs

moiTxovs.

saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebma, romlebic saqarTvelos bankebis dafinansebaSi monawileoben, am eta-

pze mizanSewonilia fokusireba moaxdinon sagareo Semosavlis generirebasa da danazogebis Semqmnel saqmiano-

bebze, uwinares yovlisa, mrewvelobasa da soflis meurneobaze, agreTve energiis warmoebasa da efeqtianobaze.

rac Seexeba danarCen aqtivobebs, iq maTi Careva praqtikulad arc aris saWiro da SeiZleba mxolod bankebis

aqtivebis swraf zrdas Seuwyon xeli, rac ar warmoadgens saerTaSoriso institutebis valdebulebas.

gansakuTrebiT saintereso SeiZleba iyos saerTaSoriso safinanso da wamyvani ormxrivi institutebis

mxridan energiis warmoebasa da energoefeqtianobasTan dakavSirebuli specifikuri finansuri instrumente-

bis SeTavazeba. maT SeuZliaT qarTvel partniorebs gauziaron maRalteqnologiuri finansuri produqtebiT

sargeblobis mdidari gamocdileba, agreTve xeli Seuwyon energiis sxvadasxva zomis, kerZo da damoukidebeli

mwarmoeblis Zlieri seqtoris Seqmnas, vinaidan saqarTvelos hidroeleqtroenergetikuli potenciali kvlav

metwilad gamouyenebeli rCeba.

cxadia, ufro mniSvnelovania, xeli Seewyos samrewvelo kompaniebis aqciebSi komerciuli bankebis inves-

tirebas, uSualod an sainvesticio fondebis meSveobiT, rogoris Seqmnasac, sxva da sxva etapze, araerTi

qarTuli banki anonsirebda.

am institutebs aucileblad unda hqondeT droTa ganmavlovaSi aRniSnuli investiciebidan `gasvlis~

saSualeba adgilobriv safondo birJaze samrewvelo aqciebis sajaro kotirebis gziT. garkveuli rolis

Sesruleba SeuZliaT ucxour bankebsac. saukeTeso gamosavali iqneboda maTi da Zlieri adgilobrivi insti-


29

tuciuri investorebis kombinacia. am TvalsazrisiT seriozul SeSfoTebas iwvevs mzardi mimdinare angariSis

deficiti, romelic pirdapir aris dakavSirebuli samomxmareblo Sesyidvebis bumTan da kerZo danazogebis

Semcireba (saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis monacemebiT, kerZo danazogebi 2005 wels mSp-is 13,8%-dan 2007

wels 6,3%-mde Semcirda).

aqedan gamomdinare, saukeTeso saerTaSoriso standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT rac SeiZleba swrafad unda Se-

muSavdes grZelvadiani kerZo dagrovebis savaldebulo sistema. am mxriv gansakuTrebiT sainteresoa Ciles sa-

pensio fondebis sistema. danazogebis mobilizaciis amgvari sistemis gareSe, saqarTvelom SeiZleba saxifaTo

makroekonomikur sivrceSi Seabijos, gansakuTrebiT Tu pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, romlebiTac aqamde

mimdinare angariSis deficiti finansdeboda, momavalSic iseve Semcirdeba, rogorc amJamad _ postsaomari saqar-

Tvelos viTarebaSi.

17. daskvnebi

rogorc saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis 2006-2008 wlis dinamikasa da maxasiaTeblebze dakvirvebam gamoa-

vlina, qveynis eqsporti-importi mudmiv koreqtirebas importis poziciis sasargeblod ganicdis.

savaWro deficitis ganuxreli zrda bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi sul ufro masStaburi gaxda da mniSvne-

lovnad gaizarda qveynis importze damokidebulebis xarisxi, ramac ara mxolod saeqsporto, aramed importis

Canacvlebis perspeqtivis mqone adgilobrivi seqtorebic sagrZnoblad daasusta.

savaWro saldos gauareseba, rogorc dakvirvebam cxadyo, ar aris mxolod romelime erTi romelime kon-

kretuli faqtoriT gamowveuli Sedegi. Tavisi SinaarsiT es mravalkomponentiani, kompleqsuri procesia,

romelSic TviTeul gamomwvev faqtors sakuTari mniSvneloba da xvedriTi wili aqvs.

importis gazrdas, erTis mxriv, savaWro tarifebis ganulebis tendenciam Seuwyo xeli, rac TavisTavad ar

aris calsaxad Sesafasebeli procesi. erTi mxriv, aman savaWro procedurebis da vadebis Semcireba gamoiwvia,

rac udavod mxolod misasalmebeli faqtia. amasTan, importi gaiafda da saimporto operaciebis warmoebac

daCqarda.

Tumca, imavdroulad isic faqtia, rom amis Sedegad kidev ufro mZafri konkurenciis pirobebSi aRmoCnd-

nen rogorc adgilobriv, aseve saeqsporto bazrebze orientirebuli qarTuli sameurneo subieqtebi, romel-

Ta solidurma nawilma am konkurencias saTanadod veRar gauZlo da sabazro niSa an Seumcirda, an sulac

daekarga.

anu is riski, rom sabaJo tarifebis politika adgilobrivi warmoebis SesaZleblobebs amcirebs da impor-

tuli produqciiT bazris sruli gajerebis albaTobas kidev ufro mets xdis, saqarTveloSi praqtikuald

realizda. imavdroulad, naklebad imuSava am Canafiqris meore mosalodnelma efeqtma, romlis mixedviTac

sabaJo tarifebis ganulebas qveyanaSi teqnologiebis importi unda waexalisebina da, saboloo angariSiT,

swored saeqsporto piziciebi gaeZlierebina. es Sedegi dRes naklebad TvalsaCinoa.

imavdroulad, saeqsporto SesaZleblobebs ukanasknel or-sam weliwadSi sagrZnoblad vnebda jer erovnu-

li valutis kursis Seuqcevadi da mkveTri gamyarebis tendencia, rac eqsports aZvirebda da mis arsebul Tu

potenciur resurss amcirebda, imports ki, piriqiT, aiafebda da misi moculoba izrdeboda. am TvalsazrisiT,

qveynis saeqsporto SesaZleblobebi ukanaskneli sami wlis ganmavlobaSi seriozul permanentul dartymebs

ganicdida.

rac Sexeba 2008 wlis noemberSi momxdar erovnuli valutis mkveTr devalvacias, am faqts qveynis savaWro

politikaze, eqsport-importis struqturaze da eqsportis waxalisebaze pozitiuri gavlena aseve ar moux-

denia ramdenime garemoebis gamo: jer erTi, postsaomari viTarebis da globaluri finansuri krizisis gamo


30

qarTuli eqsportis SesaZleblobebi isidac Semcirebuli iyo da valutis kursis cvlilebas misTvis dadebiTi

biZgi ar miucia.

garda amisa, erovnuli valutis gacvliT kursTan dakavSirebiT warmoqmnili arastabiluri viTareba da

SesaZlo morigi koreqciis molodini aseve negatiurad aisaxa savaWro politikaze, vinaidan SeuZlebeli xdeba

savaWro politikis da operaciebis grZelvadiani dagegmareba da ganxorcieleba.

sxva met-naklebad mniSvnelovan faqtorebTan erTad (qarTuli saeqsporto potencialis simwire, qarTuli

kompaniebis naklebi finansuri mdgradoba da ucxour analogebTan SedarebiT gacilebiT susti poziciebi, ar-

sebul bazrebze adgilis SenarCunebis da gasaRebis axal bazrebze SeRwevis sirTuleebi da xarjianoba da a.S.),

es problemebi Sedegad iwvevs imas, rom xdeba ara eqsportis mateba da importis Canacvleba, aramed importis

gaZliereba, rac oficialuri statistikitac aris dadasturebuli da tendencia TvalsaCinoa _ qarTuli

eqsporti, rac dro gadis, sul ufro da ufro metad eqceva importis CrdilSi.

arsebuli problema kidev ufro metad mniSvnelovania imiT, rom uSualo kavSirSia siRaribis daZlevis

problematikasTan. importis poziciebis aseTi gaZliereba sirTules uqmnis ara mxolod adgilobrivi kom-

paniebis finansur Tu instituciur mdgradobas da Semdgom ganviTarebas, aramed SeuZlebels xdis arsebuli

samuSao adgilebis SenarCunebas da, miT ufro, axali adgilebis generirebas.

es Tanabrad exeba rogorc qveynis Sida moTxovnilebebze, aseve saeqsporto mimarTulebebze orientire-

bul seqtorebs da kompaniebs. rogorc adgilobriv bazarze fokusirebuli momsaxureba da saqoneli, aseve

saeqsporto potenciali yvelaze metad iqmneba im sferoebSi, sadac mosaxleobis dasaqmeba didia.




aSkaraa.


31

18. rekomendaciebi

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom saqarTvelos bazris moculoba fizikurad aris limitirebuli, qarTuli kompa-

niebis meti mdgradobis, savaWro deficitis Semcirebisa da dasaqmebis problemis met-naklebad mosagvareblad

aucilebelia rogorc eqsportis xelSewyobis, aseve importis Canacvlebis RonisZiebebis ganxorcieleba.

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mTeli es problematika sakmaod mravalwaxnagovani da bevrSriania, aucilebe-

lia aqtivobebis gaaqtiureba sakmaod bevri mimarTulebiT, ramac sabolood arsebuli viTarebis Semsubuqeba

da Tvisebrivad axali savaWro da siRaribesTan brZolis politikis SemuSaveba da ganxorcieleba.

am mxriv sasurvelia gadawyvetilebaTa mTeli wyebis miReba, romelic qarTul prodyqcias ufro metad

konkurentunarians da warmoebis mxriv stimulirebuls gaxdis.

ufro konkretuli rekomendaciebidan aucileblad gamosayofia Semdegi sasurveli aqtivobebi:

yovlismomcveli kvleva da im dargebis gamokveTa da mxardaWera, romelTac saSualo da grZelvadian

perspeqtivaSi rogorc eqsportis gazrdis, aseve importis Canacvlebis realuri perspeqtiva gaaCniaT;

mwvane derefnis~ da erTi fanjris principis~ realurad da srulfasovnad amoqmedeba savaWro brun-

vis gazrdis da Sesabamisi sabaJo da sxva administraciuli procedurebis rogorc raodenobrivi, aseve

vadebis Semcirebis kuTxiT;

im ucxouri kompaniebis moZieba da mozidva, vinc dainteresebuli iqneba saqarTveloSi produqciis

warmoebiT da GSP+-is da sxva saxelmwifoebTan arsebuli SeRavaTiani reJimebiT sargeblobiT da saeqs-

porto bazrebze gataniT;

`sursaTis uvneblobis Sesaxeb~ kanonis SeCerebuli muxlebis dauyovnebliv amoqmedeba., raTa qarTul

sawarmoebSi gamoSvebuli produqcia Seesabamebodes saerTaSoriso standartebs da gauCndes saeqspor-

to potenciali;

qarTul kompaniebSi HACCP-is standartis danergva, rac sawarmoSi, fitosanitaruli da higienuri

normebis dacvas gulisxmobs da saeqsporto produqciis warmoebis aucilebeli pirobaa;

axal sainvestitico proeqtebze zomieri da gamarTlebuli SeRavaTebis an mxardaWeris reJimebis da-

wesebis sqemis (sagadasaxado ardadegebi, saxelmwifo qonebis gadacema) SemuSaveba da danergva;

Sromis kodeqsis gadaxedva, daqiravebulis uflebebis ufro metad dacvis da damqiravebel-daqirave-

buls Soris darRveuli disbalansis aRsadgenad;

statistikis samsaxuris srulyofili da Zireuli reforma, romelic Sesabamis monacemebs ufro

srulyofils da sandos gaxdis da SeaZlebels gaxdis rogorc realuri suraTis gamokveTas, aseve

ufro zust prognozirebas;

kerZo sapensio fondebis sistemis Camoyalibebis daCqareba da xelSewyoba, raTa Sesabamis kompaniebs

mieceT Sansi, meti fuli moizidon da mimarTon qveynis ekonomikaSi.


32

SeniSvnebi

Documents

saqarTvelos savaWro politikis monitoringi siRaribis ... · PDF file1. status qvo im miRwevebis paralelurad, rac saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi omamdel viTarebaSi aSkarad SeiniSneboda da dResac