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123
Sampling of Units
Study population
Units of one kind or another are
sampled from the study population
• Clusters• Households
Your main interest, however, may not be in characteristics of the units being sampled
124
Reference 1
• Provides overview of WHO/EPI survey method One form of rapid survey (but not correct in all situations)
Download from: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/faculty/frerichs/thai2007/whostatquarterly38_65_75_1985.pdf
125
• Better overview of rapid survey methodApplicable in most situations
Download from: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/faculty/frerichs/thai2007/whostatquarterly44_98_106_1991.pdf
Reference 2
126
Sampling and Elementary UnitsSampling Units
Elementary Units
- the units sampled from the study population
- the units that are the subject of your analysis
127
Enumeration Rules
Sampling Units
Elementary Units
Link sampling units to elementary units
128
Still More on UnitsSampling Units
Elementary Units
- clusters sampled from the study population
- people who are the subject of your analysis
129
Enumeration RuleSampling Units
Elementary Units
130
Download from: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/faculty/frerichs/thai2007/chap2rapid.pdf
Reference 3
131
Equal interval
Height
ObeseYes or No
Binomial(yes = 1, no = 0)
Binomial versus Equal Interval Data
Types of Data
132
Equal Interval
0
4
8
12
16
20
Education OpinionFavorable or unfavorable
Binomial (favorable = 1, unfavorable = 0)
Binomial versus Equal Interval Data
Types of Data
133
Proportion Percentage
Example0.10 10%
Range0 to 1 0 to 100
0.90 90%
Proportions and Percentages
134
Total IV drug injections
Shared IV drug injections
Equalintervals
Equalintervals
Ratio of Two Variables
Sampled…
Variable Two
Variable One
135
Ratio Estimator
Total IV drug injectionsVariable One
Shared IV drug injectionsVariable Two
Termed a “ratio estimator”
p r A ratio estimator looks like a proportion, acts like a proportion but is
not a proportion
136
Ratio of Two Variables
Sampled…
Variable TwoVariable One
137
Another Ratio Estimator
Total persons in HHVariable One
Total IV drug injections in past weekVariable Two
Also termed a “ratio estimator”
r The ratio estimator looks like a mean, acts like a mean but is not a meany
138
Population Sample
1
0
P pY_
y_
Equal interval data
Binomial data
Equal interval data
Binomial data
Population and Sample Means
1
0
139
Data
Standard Error
Confidence Interval
Mean Variance of Mean
Derivations from Data
140
Derivations from Equal Interval Data
Equal Interval Data
SE(y)
y V(y)
y +/- z x SE(y)
141
Binomial Data
SE(p)
p +/- z x SE(p)
p V(p)
Derivations from Binomial Data
142
Derivations from Ratio Estimator Data
Ratio Estimator
V(r)
SE(r)
r +/- z x SE(r)
r
143
y or p
Population Sample
un-biased
Estimate
Y or P
Confidence Interval
un-biased
v(y) or v(p)
se(y) or se(p)
Derivation of Confidence Interval
variability of data
144
r
Population Sample
Small bias
Estimate
Confidence Interval
Smallbias
v(r)
se(r)
Derivation of Confidence Interval for Ratio Estimator
variability of data
R( Y / X )
145
Survey Data
Information
Mean or Proportion
Knowledge of Population
Action
Moving from Data to Action
146
Y_
1
0
P
Action 1
Action 2
Action 3
Action 4
Population SampleEqual
interval dataEqual
interval dataBinomial
data1
0
p
Binomial data
Action Levels and Sampling
y
147
CurrentFP Users
(%)
No further action in community unless there is unmet FP need
Interview non-users and improvemanagement of local FP program
Community education and establish or improve local FP program
Action Level100
80
60
40
20
0
Example of Action Levels and Sampling
A small survey with wide confidence intervals would
probably be acceptable
148
7
YES NO
Using FP Method
p = 35%
13
Number of sampled women
A Survey of 20
7/20 = 0.35
149
Precision or Accuracy
A Survey of 20If done blindly over and over again…
Between sample variability
Depending on the presence or
absence of bias
Number of Sample Surveys
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
PP
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Using FP Method (%)25 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 7530 3520 80
P
150
with Attribute (%)with Attribute (%)
BIASED
Average value of all sample means
True value in population
UNBIASED
True value in population
Average value of all sample means
Concept of Bias
151
BIASED UNBIASED
Concept of Accuracy
with Attribute (%)
True value in population
Average value of all sample means
with Attribute (%)
Average value of all sample means
True value in population
Accuracy Accuracy
Measuring what you are intending to measure
Since we do not know
truth, we can only estimate accuracy
152
BIASED UNBIASED
Concept of Precision
with Attribute (%)
True value in population
Average value of all sample means
with Attribute (%)
Average value of all sample means
True value in population
Accuracy
Measuring statistical variation due to sampling
Precision PrecisionAccuracy
We can measure
precision with statistical
methods, but not accuracy
Precision is a statistical term for the
measurement of sample variation
If unbiased, accuracy is measured by
precision
153
Value of Statistical TestsMeasuring statistical variation due to sampling
BIASED UNBIASED
with Attribute (%)
True value in population
Average value of all sample means
with Attribute (%)
Average value of all sample means
True value in population
Accuracy
Precision Precision
AccuracySince knowledge of
accuracy is what we want, statistical tests
for precision are only valued when the
investigator can assure us that the sample survey was
derived in an unbiased manner.
154
Measuring PrecisionVariance and Standard Error of the Sample Mean
Use sample survey data to derive…
Variance of the sample mean
Equal interval data Binomial data
( yi – y )2
n (n – 1) i=1
n
Standard error of the sample mean
( yi – y )2
n (n – 1) i=1
n
v(y) =
se(y) =
p q
n – 1v(p) =
se(p) = p q
n – 1
155
Measuring Precision
Average value of all sample means
Freq
uenc
y
Scale ( P or Y )
Normal distribution
Expected value The standard
error, estimated in a sample survey, is a measure of
precision of the underlying
distribution of all possible samples
1 se(p) or 1 se(y)
True value in population
PRECISION
ACCURACYThe standard error may also
be a measure of the accuracyof the underlying distribution of
all possible samples
156
Change in ScaleUse of precision and the normal curve
The planned new scale on the x-axis
Using FP Method (%)
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
PP
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P P
25 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 7530 35
Number of Sample Surveys P
P
P
P
P
20
P
P
P
P
P
80
Standard Errors-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
Mean of the one survey
that was actually done
Distribution of sample means if the same
survey was done over and over again
157
True value in population
Sample Value
Change in ScaleStep A
PPPP PP
25
Using FP Method (%)
35 45 55 65 75
P P P PPP P
158
Change in ScaleStep B
True value
PPPP PP
25
Using FP Method (%)
35 45 55 65 75
P P P PPP P
50
Deviation of all possible sample means from true value
-15-25 -5 +5 +15 +250
159
p qn-1 x 100se(p) =
Change in ScaleStep C
For the one survey that was done where p = 35% and n = 20…
.35 x .6520-1 x 100 = 10.9%se(p) =
160
Change in ScaleStep C
p qn-1 x 100se(p) =
9.9 11.4 11.4 10.9 9.911.5
PPPP PP
25
Using FP Method (%)
35 45 55 65 75
P P P PPP P
50True value
10.9
161
Change in ScaleStep D
A typical scale with equal units measured in inches
or centimeters
A new scale with equal units measured in
Frerichs’ walking shoes
To be measured
60 inches(152 cm.)
= 5 shoes
162
Change in ScaleStep D
Deviations from true valuese(p) of sample value
-259.9
+1510.9
+259.9
-511.4
+511.4
011.5
-2.5 -0.4 +0.4 +1.4 +2.50
PPPP PP
25
Using FP Method (%)
35 45 55 65 75
P P P PPP P
50True value
-1510.9
A new scale
-1.4Standard Errors
163
Change in ScaleDeviations in standard error units from the true value
Number of Sample Surveys
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
PP
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Standard Errors-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
P
Deviation from the true value in standard error
units for the one survey that was
done
Distribution of sample means of replicated
sample surveys
164
MostSome SomeFew Few
Expected value of proportion or mean
Distribution of all Possible Samples
Low estimates
High estimates
-3 SE -2 SE -1 SE +3 SE+2 SE+1 SE0
Number of Possible Samples
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
y y y
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y yy y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_y
p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p
165
+1 +3
Standard Errors
0-1-3
Number of Possible Samples
-2 +2
Distribution of all Possible SamplesMean of Binomial Variable
99% of Possible Samples
95% of Possible Samples
-1.64 +1.64
90% of Possible Samples
-1.96 +1.96-2.58 +2.58
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p pp p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p pp p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p pp p p p p p p p p
p p p p pp p p
p
166
0.50
1.00
0
0.25
0.75
Playing DartsHow confident are you at hitting the target?
The special dart
Erratic but unbiased dart
thrower
167
0.50
1.00
0
0.25
0.75
Playing DartsHow confident are you at hitting the target?
Small interval
Medium interval
Large interval
168
0.50
1.00
0
0.25
0.75
Playing Confidence IntervalsHow confident are you at hitting the expected value?
Expected value of sample proportions
p
p
p
p
p
pp
p
p p
10 Tries with Repeated Sample Surveys
Knowing this, are you 80% confident that the next confidence interval will bracket the true value?
8 of 10 bracketed the
expected value
169
Binomial data
p q
n – 1v(p) =
se(p) = p q
n – 1
Deriving a Confidence IntervalProportion of 0.50 with 95% CI in a sample of 300
From earlier… For our sample…
se(p) = 0.000836 = 0.029
0.5 x 0.5
300 – 1v(p) =
0.25
299= = 0.000836
95% CI = p +/- 1.96 x se (p)
= 0.5 +/- 1.96 x 0.029 = 0.443, 0.557
170
Standard Errors
+1 +30-1-3-1.96 +1.96
Expected value of sample proportions
True proportion in population
Confidence Intervals of all Possible Samples95% Confidence Limits
All samples are drawn from the same
underlying study population
For about 5% of the possible
samples, the 95% confidence
intervals will not bracket the
expected value
p
p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p
p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p
p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p pp
p
p
p
p
171
4,54,5
1,2,3
Sample Survey
1
100
50
75
25
Expected value of sample proportions
95% confidence
interval does not bracket expected value of sample
proportions
Confidence Intervals for 100 of all Possible SamplesArranged in Ascending Order
172
Confidence Intervals for 100 of all Possible SamplesArranged in Random Order
21
5
4
3Sample Survey
1
100
50
75
25
Expected value of sample proportions
Five of the 100 repeated
surveys have CIs that do not
bracket the expected value
Since only one of all possible surveys was
actually done, it is not clear if it was one like the 5 or one like the 95
173
Probability Confidence
Before the Flips After the Flips
Flips of Five CoinsProbability versus Confidence
The true proportion or
mean in a survey is not
know
Yet by applying statistical principles, we can say with 95% confidence that our 95% CI brackets the expected value
(and true value if unbiased) in the study population
174
Download from: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/faculty/frerichs/thai2007/chap3rapid.pdf
Reference 4
175
2
5
8
PopulationSelected random
numbersSelected sample
Simple Random SampleDraw 3 from a population of 9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
5
8
Need to list the population
Select using random number table
176
The Listed PopulationNine Drug Addicts
Each person in the
population is identified
JOE HAL ROY JON SAM
BOB NAT TED BEN
177
IV Injections During Prior WeekNine Drug Addicts
The total number of
injections is identified for each addict
Total injections is an equal interval
variable
JOE HAL ROY JON SAM
BOB NAT TED BEN
8 9 1110 12
11 9 11 10 Mean IV injections in population during prior week = 10.1
178
Infected with HIVNine Drug Addicts
HIV status is identified for each addict
HIV status is a binomial variable
HIV+HIV-
JOE HAL ROY JON SAM
BOB NAT TED BEN
8 9 1110 12
11 9 11 10 Proportion infected with HIV in
population = 3/9 or 0.33
179
Shared IV Injections during Prior WeekNine Drug Addicts
Shared IV injections is tallied for
each addict in the population
Shared IV injections is an equal interval
variable
HIV+HIV-
JOE HAL ROY JON SAM
BOB NAT TED BEN
8 9 1110 12
11 9 11 10
6 2 5 3 0
2 2 25
Mean shared IV injections in
population during prior week = 3.0
180
First selection(1 in 9)
Second selection(1 in 9)
Third selection(1 in 9)
Sample of Three AddictsSelected With Replacement
Population(N=9)
Each addict has the same probability of being selected at the three steps
181
First selection(1 in 9)
Second selection(1 in 8)
Third selection(1 in 7)
Sample of Three AddictsSelected Without Replacement
Population(N=9)
All addicts do not have the same probability of being selected at each step
182
All possible samples = Nn
=729 Possible
Samples93
Sampling with Replacement (WR)
All Possible Samples
Sample 3 from Population of 9 Drug Addicts
183
ROY BOB TED
1112 11
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
Average total IV injections
= 11.312 + 11 + 11
3
Equal Interval Data
Sample mean (x) =
Population mean (X) = 10.1
184
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Mean IV Drug Injections
Num
ber o
f Pos
sibl
e Sa
mpl
es
8 9 10 11 12
Total = 729 samples
All Possible SamplesSelected With Replacement
Selected was one
sample with a mean of
11.3
185
Example: assume n = 5
n x n-1 x n-2 x n-3 x … n-(n-1) = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 =
N or n FactorialNotation for Deriving All Possible Samples Without Replacement
n !
N or n are positive numbers tallying the units in the study population and in the sample survey
120
186
Sample 3 from Population of 9 Drug Addicts
= = 84 possible samples
9 !
3 ! (9-3) !9 x 8 x 7 x 6!
3 x 2 x 1 x 6!
Cancel
N !
n ! (N-n) !=All possible
samples
Sampling Without Replacement (WOR)
All Possible Samples when Order is Disregarded
187
Num
ber o
f Po
ssib
le S
ampl
es
Mean IV Drug Injections
25
08 9 10 11 12
Total = 84 samples
Selected Without ReplacementAll Possible Samples
Selected was one
sample with a mean of
11.3
188
All Possible Samples
Mean IV Drug Injections
Num
ber o
f Pos
sibl
e Sa
mpl
es
25
08 9 10 11 12
Selected With Replacement (total = 729 samples)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Selected Without Replacement (total = 84 samples)
189
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mean IV Drug Injections
Perc
ent o
f All
Poss
ible
Sam
ples
WOR (84)WR (729)
8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0
Comparison of Sampling With (WR) and Without Replacement (WOR)
Average WR sample mean = 10.1
Population mean = 10.1Average WOR sample mean = 10.1
Less variability among samples selected without
replacement (WOR)
190
Variance (WOR) = FPC x Variance (WR)
Finite Population Correct (FPC)Use when sampling without replacement (WOR)
FPC =Variance (WOR)Variance (WR)
Smaller
LargerLess than 1.0
FPC = N - nN
nN
= 1 -The magnitude of
the correction depends on the size
of the sample in relation to the size of the populationUsually omitted
with rapid surveys
FPC = 50,000 - 30050,000
= 1 - 30050,000
= 0.994
Example: population of 50,000 persons
191
Meanpopulation = 10.1
0
1
2
3
4
8 9 10 11 12Total IV Injections
No.
of D
rug
Add
icts
Total IV Injections during Prior WeekPopulation of Nine Drug Addicts
192
ROY BOB TED
1112 11
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
Average total IV injections
= 11.312 + 11 + 11
3
Equal Interval Data
Sample mean (x) =
Population mean (X) = 10.1
Sampled without replacement (WOR), disregarding order
193
ROY BOB TED
1112 11
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
Variance and Standard Error
( xi – x )2
n (n – 1) i=1
n
v(x) =
Equal Interval Data
FPC
N – nNse(x) =
9 - 39
se(x) = (12 - 11.3)2 + (11- 11.3)2 + (11 - 11.3)2
3 (3 - 1) = 0.27
194
0
10
20
30
40 Average = 10.1
Sample x
Num
ber o
f Po
ssib
le S
ampl
es
Mean
8 9 10 11 120
10
20
30
40 Average = 0.56
Sample se(x)
Standard Error of Mean
0 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.2
Mean and Standard Error of All Possible Samples of 3 Selected from a Population of 9 (WOR)
Total = 84 samples
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
195
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Confidence Interval
Replace by t when samples are small
Equal Interval DataROY BOB TED
1112 11
95% CI = x +/- z x se(x)
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
196
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Sample Size minus One
t va
lue
z value = 1.96
Use t for Class Examples and later for Rapid SurveysRelation of t value to z value
t = 4.30 for sample of three
197
Based on the statistical calculations, you would be 95% confident that the interval of 10.16 to 12.50 brackets
the true value in the population
= 11.3 +/- 4.30 x 0.27 = 10.16, 12.50
Instead of 1.96 for 95% CI
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Confidence Interval
Replace by t when samples are small
Equal Interval DataROY BOB TED
1112 11
95% CI = x +/- z x se(x)
Total IV Injections during Prior Week
198
Confidence Intervals for All Possible Samples (WOR)
Note that 5 of the 84 confidence intervals do not bracket the true value. Thus the 95% confidence interval for this small
population and sample is actually a 94% confidence interval [i.e., (84-5)/84 = 0.94]
For the one sample that was done, you
would be 94% confident that the derived interval of
10.2 to 12.5 brackets the true value in the
population0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Tota
l Inj
ectio
ns.
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Sample Number* * * * *
Total IV Injections During Prior Week
As it turns out, your confidence was not warranted
X = 10.1
True value
199
Ratio of Shared IV Injections to Total Injections during Prior WeekRatio of Two Variables
R = XY
=Xi
i=1
N
Yii=1
N The ratio of shared IV injections to total
injections in prior week is 0.297
JOE HAL ROY JON SAM
BOB NAT TED BEN
6 2 5 0
2 2 25
38 9 1110 12
11 9 11 10
Shared (Yi)Total (Xi)
Shared (Yi)Total (Xi)
200
Ratio of Shared to Total IV InjectionsPopulation of Nine Drug Addicts
0
20
40
60
80
100
Shared Total
IV Drug Injections
No.
of I
njec
tions
. Ratiopopulation = 27/91 = 0.297
201
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Ratio of Shared IV Injections to Total Injections During Prior Week
Population ratio (R) = 0.297
Sample ratio (r) = = 0.3535 + 2 + 512 + 11 + 11
Ratio of Shared IV Injections to Total Injections during Prior Week
ROY BOB TED
5 2 512 11 11
Shared (Yi)
Total (Xi)
202
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
No.
of P
ossi
ble
Sam
ples
.
Mean for All Possible Samples
Average = 0.296
Distribution of 84 possible samples of 3 drawn WOR from a population of 9 drug
addicts
Sample r
Ratio of Shared IV Injections to Total Injections during Prior Week
Slightly different from population mean of 0.297 (i.e., a small bias)
203
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Shared IV Injections during Prior Week
Variance and Standard ErrorRatio Data
FPC
9 – 39
se(r) = [5 – (.353 x 12)]2 + [2 – (.353 x 11)]2 + [5 – (.353 x 11)]2
3 (3 - 1) [(12 + 11 + 11)/3]2= 0.068
ROY BOB TED
5 2 512 11 11
n
v(r) = ( yi – r xi )2
n (n – 1) x2i=1N – n
Nse(r) =
Shared (Yi)
Total (Xi)
204
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18
No.
of P
ossi
ble
Sam
ples
. Average = 0.078
Standard Errors for All Possible Samples
Distribution of 84 possible samples of 3 drawn WOR from a population of 9 drug addicts
Sample se(r)
Ratio of Shared IV Injections to Total Injections during Prior Week
205
Sample of 3 from the population of 9 drug addicts
Confidence Interval
Based on the statistical calculations, you would be 95% confident that the interval of 0.06 to 0.65 brackets the
true value in the population
= 0.353 +/- 4.30 x 0.068 = 0.06, 0.65
Replace by t when samples are small
Instead of 1.96 for 95% CI
Ratio Data
95% CI = r +/- z x se(r)
Shared IV Injections during Prior Week
ROY BOB TED
5 2 512 11 11
Shared (Yi)
Total (Xi)
206
Confidence Intervals for All Possible Samples
Note that 5 of the 84 confidence intervals do not bracket the true value. Thus the 95% confidence interval for this small
population and sample is actually a 94% confidence interval [i.e., (84-5)/84 = 0.94]
For the one sample that was done, you
would be 94% confident that the derived interval of
0.06 to 0.65 brackets the true value in the
population
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Rat
io (S
hare
d/To
tal).
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Sample Number* * * * *
Ratio of Shared to Total Injections
R = 0.297
True value
207
Confidence Intervals for All Possible Samples if Presented as a Proportion
By limiting the axis to 0 and 1, the lower and upper bounds of some confidence intervals are attenuated, but otherwise the
bracket relation to truth remains valid
Ratio of Shared to Total Injections
For the one sample that was done, you
would be 94% confident that the derived interval of
0.06 to 0.65 brackets the true value in the
population
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Rat
io (S
hare
d/To
tal).
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Sample Number* * * * *
R = 0.297
True value