Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Jul 2020 – Page 1
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
• Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to
Vietnam primarily through charts.
• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any
commentary will be limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the
‘less is best’ treatment, essentially letting the figures do the talking.
• The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional,
domestic, and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of
key macro, market, or sector data and used for internal or external presentations
or needs.
GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS
Fig 1. Global GDP forecasts (%) Fig 2. OECD Leading Indicator
2.9
-4.9
5.4
1.7
-7.1
4.8 5.5
-0.8
7.4
4.9
-2.0
6.2
2.2
-8.0
4.56.1
1.0
8.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
World EU EmergingAsia
ASEAN-5 US China
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Jul 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 3. OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator Fig 4. VIX, S&P 500
94
96
98
100
102
104
Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
500
1500
2500
3500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
VIX Index (LHS) S&P 500
As of Jun 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 5. Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index Fig 6. 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate
112.9
43.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bbg Industrial Metals Index Brent oil price USD/barrel
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10Y US Gov't Yield 10Y Japan Gov't Yield
10Y EU Gov't Yield FED Fund rate
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Jul 2020 – Page 2
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 7. Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average Fig 8. Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Nasdaq DJIA (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
S&P 500 Forward EPS
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 9. Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond and IG Bond OAS Spread
As of 31/6/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 10. iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads
0
1
2
3
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond OAS Spread
Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. IG Bond OAS Spread (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
iTraxx Asia IG CDS spreads
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 11. Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 12. ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads
0
20
40
60
-20
-10
0
10
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
CPB Trade Vol index YoY CPB World IP YoYJPM global mfg PM SA (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PH TH ID VN
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 13. Vietnam - Total and Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases
As of Jul 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 14. Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator
Source: ourworldindata.org As of Jul 2020 Source: Google, VinaCapital
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Retail & Recreation Grocery & PharmacyParks Transit StationsWorkplaces Residential
Jul 2020 – Page 3
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS
Fig 15. Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%) Fig 16. Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%)
2020 growth forecast by IMF Source: MPI, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 17. Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD) Fig 18. ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%)
7.0
2.7
7.0
5.0
-0.3
6.14.3
-3.8
6.3 5.9
-3.6
6.8
0.7
-3.5
3.0 2.4
-7.7
5.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
2020
E
2021
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
2020
E
2021
E
2019
20
20
E
20
21
E
2019
2020
E
2021
E
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Growth forecast by IMF Source: CEIC, IMF, VinaCapital
Fig 19. Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 20: ASEAN – Real GDP (%)
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
7.0
2.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020IMF
0.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19072052 2109
22152389
25902715
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20
GDP, YoY Growth 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 6.7 7.5 7.0 3.7 0.4
Agri., Forestry and Fishery 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.0 1.7
Industry and Construction 5.1 6.4 9.6 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.9 9.1 10.2 7.9 5.0 1.4
Services 6.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.3 6.9 7.3 8.1 3.3 -1.8
Net indirect taxes 6.4 7.9 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.4 4.3 1.9
% share of GDP
Agri., Forestry and Fishery 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.7 17.6 13.0 13.0 10.2 17.9
Industry and Construction 33.1 33.2 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 36.2 35.2 36.0 37.0 36.8 35.6
Services 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.9 36.1 39.8 39.2 40.5 35.3
Net indirect taxes 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.9 12.4 11.3
VN ID MY PH SG TH VN ID MY PH SG TH
GDP, YoY Growth 7.1 5.2 4.8 6.2 3.4 4.2 7.0 5.0 4.3 5.9 0.7 2.4
Government consumption 6.3 4.8 3.2 13.0 2.9 2.6 5.8 3.2 2.0 10.5 2.8 1.4
Private consumption 7.3 5.1 8.0 5.6 4.2 4.6 7.4 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.7 4.5
Gross Capital Formation 8.7 6.6 1.4 12.9 -3.4 3.8 8.3 4.4 -2.1 1.5 -0.2 2.1
Change in stocks 3.9 55.6 - 46.4 25.0 - 3.8 -34.2 - - -25.6 -61.1
Net Exports: Goods & Services - -51.1 6.2 - 13.3 -32.5 - 167.8 9.7 - -0.7 17.8
% share of GDP
Government consumption 6.4 7.9 12.4 11.1 10.1 14.7 6.3 7.8 12.2 11.6 10.3 14.6
Private consumption 67.7 54.2 56.9 68.5 37.0 51.0 67.9 54.2 58.7 68.4 38.1 52.1
Gross Capital Formation 31.4 33.0 24.6 30.5 25.0 23.9 31.7 32.8 23.1 29.2 24.7 23.9
Change in stocks 3.0 1.9 -0.7 0.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.3 1.6 0.9
Net Exports: Goods & Services - 0.9 6.7 - 27.1 5.9 - 2.2 7.0 - 26.7 6.8
2018 2019
Jul 2020 – Page 4
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 21. Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %) Fig 22. Vietnam – CPI (%)
3.4
2.3
-1.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
CPI Core CPI PPI
PPI: Jun 2020, CPI: Jul 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Jul 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
2020 forecast by VinaCapital
Fig 23. Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%) Fig 24. ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %)
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Foods Housing & Const'n MaterialsHealthcare TransportationOthers CPI
3.4
2.0
-1.9
2.5
-0.5
-1.6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VN ID MY PH SG TH
As of Jul 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Jun 2020; VN is as of Jul 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 25. Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%)
2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
CPI, yoy Growth 4.7 2.6 3.0 5.2 4.9 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.4
Core inflation yoy Growth 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3
Foods and Foodstuffs 2.9 -1.8 5.1 9.2 10.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 11.9
Housing & Const'n Materials 3.3 4.7 1.1 5.1 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.7
Health and Personal Care 55.7 27.8 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4
Transportation -1.1 6.0 0.2 3.5 -2.6 -19.6 -23.4 -17.3 -14.0
% contribution for yoy growth
Foods and Foodstuffs 21.9 -25.0 61.7 63.3 77.3 145.2 182.3 142.0 126.7
Housing & Const'n Materials 10.8 28.3 6.0 15.4 14.4 7.6 2.4 0.8 3.1
Health and Personal Care 59.3 53.9 6.2 2.9 3.4 5.7 7.2 5.4 5.0
Transportation -2.2 21.8 0.7 6.3 -5.0 -62.6 -91.2 -51.1 -38.8
Others 10.2 21.1 25.5 12.1 10.0 4.1 -0.6 3.0 4.0 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 26. Vietnam – PMI Fig 27. Vietnam vs. Asia PMI
As of Jul 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital As of Jul 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital
47.6
30
35
40
45
50
55
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
47.4
47.6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Asia Vietnam
3.4
0.4
-2
-1
0
1
2
0
2
4
6
8
2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020
YoY MoM
2020 forecast CPI (YoY): 3.0 %
Jul 2020 – Page 5
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 28. Currency (%, vs USD) Fig 29. DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate
-2.1
0.1
0.0
-5.8
4.2
-5.5
-1.7
1.1
-3.5-4.5
3.3 3.4
-2.0
1.4
-2.0
0.8
8.6
-4.7
4.4
0.2
-3.7
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2018
2019
20
20
YT
D
20
18
20
19
20
20
YT
D
20
18
2019
20
20
YT
D
2018
20
19
20
20
YT
D
20
18
20
19
20
20
YT
D
2018
2019
20
20
YT
D
20
18
20
19
20
20
YT
D
VN ID MY PH SG TH DXY
72
77
82
87
92
97
102
107
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VND/USD DXY Currency (RHS)
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 30. VND Trading Bands Fig 31. Vietnam – Bond Yields (%)
19500
20500
21500
22500
23500
24500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Interbank rate Lower band
Upper Band Unofficial Mkt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 32. Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate Fig 33. Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued
Source: SBV, VBMA Source: SBV, Bloomberg
Fig 34. Vietnam – Top Imports Products in 7M2020 Fig 35. Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 7M2020
23%
14%
5%5%4%
3%3%2%
2%
39%
PCs & electronic items
Machinery & equipment
Mobile &spare parts
Fabrics
Iron & steel
Plastics
Plastic products
Other base metals
Petroleum products
Others
18%
16%
11%
8%6%
4%3%
3%
2%
29%
Mobile &spare parts
PCs & electronic items
Textiles & garments
Machinery & equipment
Footwear
Wood & wooden products
Transportation vehicles
Fishery
Iron & steel
Others
Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital
Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital
Jul 2020 – Page 6
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 36. Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 2019 Fig 37. Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 2019
Source: Customs, VinaCapital
Fig 38. Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports
Source: Customs, VinaCapital
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Jul20
Total Imports and Exports 228.3 264.1 298.1 327.6 351.4 428.1 480.6 517.7 285.1
Total Exports 114.5 132.0 150.2 162.0 176.6 215.1 243.7 264.3 145.8
%yoy 18.2 15.3 13.8 7.9 9.0 21.8 13.3 8.4 0.2
Total Imports 113.8 132.0 147.8 165.6 174.8 213.0 236.9 253.4 139.3
%yoy 6.6 16.0 12.0 12.0 5.6 21.9 11.2 7.0 -2.9
Trade Surplus/ Deficit 0.7 0.0 2.4 -3.6 1.8 2.1 6.8 10.9 6.5
Domestic Companies -3.4 -6.5 -7.4 -16.9 -19.7 -22.6 -23.0 -23.6 -11.1
FDI Companies 4.1 6.5 9.7 13.3 21.4 24.7 29.8 34.5 17.6
Source: Customs, Jul-GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 39. Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%) Fig 40. Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%)
Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital As of June 2020 Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 41. Vietnam – Registered & Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn) Fig 42. Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 7M2020
8.716.0
9.0
10.8
9.1 6.711.2
-6.5
12.5
-8.0
41.7
-13.9 -11.8
37.0
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Jul20
FDI Disbursement (USD bn)
FDI Registered (exl. Purchased stocks) (USD bn)
%yoy FDI Disb. (RHS)
%yoy FDI Regis.(RHS)
43%
21%
6%
4%
1%
25%
Manufacturing
Elec., Gas, Air Con Supply
Whsle, Retail Trade
Real Estate Activities
Construction
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
30%
18%
13%
8%
7%
6%
2%
0.5%16%
China
South Korea
ASEAN
Japan
EU
US
India
HongKong
Others
23%
16%
13%10%
8%
7%
3%
2%
2%
16%US
China
EU
ASEAN
Japan
South Korea
HongKong
India
UAE
Others
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD-
Jun20
Total investment 11.9 8.9 12.3 11.2 10.2 3.3
State 6.8 7.3 6.9 3.9 2.6 7.3
Non-State 12.8 9.5 17.1 18.5 17.3 4.7
Foreign-Sector 19.9 10.4 12.8 9.6 8.1 -3.8
Total investment/GDP 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.5 33.9 33.0
38.1 36.9 40.2 40.4 39.9 38.0 37.5 35.7 33.3 31.0 32.2
36.1 38.5 38.1 37.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 40.6 43.3 46.0 44.2
25.8 24.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.4 22.9 23.6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Investment State Investment Non-state FDI
Jul 2020 – Page 7
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 43. Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment Fig 44. Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 45. Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 46. Vietnam – Foreign Reserves
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 47. Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 48. Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown (%
Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 49. Vietnam – Budget Deficit (VND bn)
-60,765
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
Budget Deficit/GDP (Jun 20): -2.4%
Source: MOF, VinaCapital Source: MOF, VinaCapital
5.56.9
8.1
10.711.6
13.614.9
15.7
2.91.2 1.5
0.1
-0.1
0.22.1
3.0 3.0
-1.3-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
Direct investment (USD bn) Portfolio investment (USD bn)
8.1
6.1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
Current Account/GDP (%) BOP/GDP (%)
USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
Current account 8,617 -2,039 625 -1,651 5,769 13,138 4,153
Goods trade balance (f.o.b.) 12,126 7,375 11,042 10,845 16,540 21,494 6,180
Services trade balance -3,950 -4,765 -4,258 -4,030 -3,810 -2,479 -740
Investment income (primary) -8,844 -12,150 -14,144 -16,994 -15,818 -15,119 -3,271
Transfers (secondary) 9,285 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 9,242 1,984
Financial account 5,571 967 10,726 20,027 8,466 18,960 1,335
Direct investment (net) 8,050 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 15,670 2,936
Portfolio investment (net) 93 -65 228 2,069 3,021 2,998 -1,332
Other investment (net) -2,572 -9,668 -1,102 4,338 -9,457 292 -269
Net errors and omissions -5,813 -4,959 -2,961 -5,832 -8,204 -8,844 -2,372
Overall balance 8,375 -6,032 8,390 12,544 6,031 23,254 3,116
Current Account/GDP (%) 4.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.7 2.4 5.0 8.1
BOP/GDP (%) 4.5 -3.1 4.1 5.6 2.5 8.9 6.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Total Reserve Minus Gold (USD bn) (LHS)Import Cover (RHS)
56.154.3
49.2 48.5
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Public Debt: % of GDP Government Debt: % of GDP
National External Debt: % of GDP External Debt Cap
Public Debt Cap
53.7 49.3 46.9 42.4 41.9
46.3 50.7 53.1 57.6 58.1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Government Enterprise
Jul 2020 – Page 8
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 50. Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn) Fig 51. ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn)
Source: World Bank, VinaCapital
Fig 52. Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%)
Source: World Bank, VinaCapital
Fig 53. Labour Employed Index for Industrial Enterprises (YoY)
18.319.9
37.0
0
10
20
30
40
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
-1.8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: CEIC Source: GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 54. Vietnam – Employment & Unemployment Rate Fig 55. Vietnam – Monthly Minium Wages by Region (VND th)
Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: GSO, VinaCapital
4.3
3.4
5.0 5.34.7
5.5 5.7
8.0
6.9
5.7
7.16.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
5
10
15
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
VN as % of GDP
17.0
11.7
1.7
35.2
7.1
0
10
20
30
40
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
VN ID MY PH TH
% as of GDP in 2019VN: 6.5%; ID: 1%; MY: 0.5%; PH: 9.3%; TH: 1.3%
51.8
2.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun 20
Labour force (person mn) Unemployment rate (%, RHS)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
R1 R2 R3 R4 General Min Wage
Jul 2020 – Page 9
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM
Fig 56. VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term Fig 57. ASEAN – Lending Rate (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ON 1W 1M 3M
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VN ID MY
PH SG TH
As of 31/07/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 58. Vietnam – Loans/GDP %
Source: SBV, VinaCapital
Fig 59. ASEAN – Loans/GDP %
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 60. Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP %
Source: Bloomberg
Fig 61. ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19)
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
95.2 97.0 100.8111.0
122.3130.0 130.3
135.6
0
30
60
90
120
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
17
20
18
20
19
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Singapore Thailand
4
4.6
5.25.5
5.75.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.93.5
39.8
4.1
49.3
23.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
VN ID MY PH SG TH
Jul 2020 – Page 10
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 62. Vietnam – Breakdown Loans (%) Fig 63. Vietnam – NIM (%)
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
Fig 64. Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%) Fig 65. Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%)
Source: SBV, forecast numbers by VinaCapital Source: SBV, VinaCapital
Fig 66. Vietnam – LDR (%) Fig 67. Vietnam – NPLs to Gross Loans
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Fig 68. Vietnam – CAR (%)
Fig 69. Vietnam – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%)
Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: IMF, CEIC, SBV, VinaCapital
25.9 30.5 34.2 37.0 40.5 45.5 47.5 49.5 51.5
18.8 14.8 12.3 9.9 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0
52.3 51.6 50.2 49.6 48.3 43.8 42.3 40.8 39.3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Retail loans SOE loans FDI loans Corp loans
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
21.0
37.7
29.8
10.98.9
12.514.2
17.3 18.3 18.2
13.9 13.7
10.4 10.7 10.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12.5
14.2
17.318.3
18.2
13.9
13.7
10.3
23.0 19.4
14.3
17.7
14.112.8
13.9
11.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Apr 20
Credit Growth Deposit Growth
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
10.310.9
9.4 9.49.9
9.5 9.5
10.6
14.0
12.612.1
12.7
11.8 11.5 11.210.6
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
State-Owned Banks JSC Banks
40.4
18.9 5.413.9
10.3
15.7
16.418.6
10.9
17.7
30.5
34.0
-5.8
27.5
2.8
20.4
10.412.4
12.017.9
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Assets Growth Regulatory Capital Growth
Jul 2020 – Page 11
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 70. Vietnam – Banks ROA (%) Fig 71. Vietnam – Banks ROE (%)
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
Fig 72. Vietnam – Fee to Total Income Fig 73. Vietnam – Reserve Cover
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
11 Banks SOCB Banks Private Banks
Jul 2020 – Page 12
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
Fig 74. Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD) Fig 75. Vietnam - Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (%)
0
30
60
90
120
150
-12-9-6-30369
1215
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Dec
-18
Jun
-19
Dec
-19
Jun
-20
Consumer confidence (RHS) RS (inflation adj.) RS
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Jul 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 76. Vietnam – FMCG YoY Growth in Hanoi, HCM, Hai Phong, Can Tho Fig 77. Vietnam – FMCG YoY Growth in Rural Areas
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Fig 78. ASEAN – Internet Penetration Fig 79. Vietnam – FMCG Sales by Retail Channel
68.5 171.3 26.4 79.0 5.2 57.0
70.462.6
81.472.1
88.481.7
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Internet Users (mn) Internet Penetration (%)
Source: Internet World Stats May 2020 Source: Euromonitor International
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Retail sales per capita (USD) GDP per capita (USD)
2.3
-0.7
3.9
0.7
6.3 5.85.56.8
3.44.3
13.5
6.7
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
FMCG Dairy Beverage Packagefoods
PersonalCares
Home Care
2018 MAT P9 2019
6.47.9 8.1
3.9
9
2.8
8.8
15.3
8.4
4.5
14.9
3.5
0
5
10
15
20
FMCG Dairy Beverage Packagefoods
PersonalCares
Home Care
2018 MAT P9 2019
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
Convenience Stores Hypermarkets SupermarketsModern Grocery Retailers Traditional Grocery E-CommerceOthers
Jul 2020 – Page 13
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 80. ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales Fig 81. ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
Fig 82. Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers Fig 83. Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit)
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Supermarkets Shopping centers
102,888
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 84. Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival Fig 85. Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%)
(61.6)
(70)
(20)
30
80
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Jul20
Visitor Arrival (person mn) By Airways (person mn)
By Roads (person mn) % yoy No. of visitors (RHS)
23.916.9
-67.9
8.1 6.4
-48.7
3.615.2
-61.5
12.4
12.2
-65.4
44.3
23.1
-65.7
15.9
29.8
-62.7
15.8
45.9
-54.4
11.98.6
-62.9-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20
2018
2019
YTD
-Jul
20CN EU JP MY KR TW TH US
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital 2020: As of June 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 86. Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC & Hanoi Fig 87. Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price (USD/sqm)
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
1.11.5 1.8 2.0 2.3
1.72.1
2.83.3
4.7 4.45.2
6.8
8.3
9.2
1.3 1.7 1.9
2.9
4.4
0123456789
10
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
47.8 48.3
32.9
25.0
18.0
62.6
24.9
36.5
25.4
48.7
14.117.9
31.4
23.8
10.5 12.0
30.2
21.1
53.0
60.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
58,894
63,078
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total sold unit New launch
6308
4500
2549 2400
1442 1350
898 800
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
7500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019
HCMC Hanoi
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Jul 2020 – Page 14
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY
Fig 88. Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn) Fig 89. Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 10M2019
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 90. Vietnam – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2018 Fig 91. Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn)
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 92. Vietnam – Volume Deficiency (kWh bn) Fig 93. Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn)
Source: MOIT Source: MOIT Fig 94. ASEAN – Electricity Price, Jul 2018 (USDc/kWh) Fig 95. Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh)
Source: Digitalenergyasia Source: MOIT
115.3
128.6
143.7159.8
174.7
192.9
209.4
127.7143.3
159.7
177.0192.8
212.3
231.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Demand Total Production & Purchase
48.8%
29.1%
18.1%
2.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Coal
Hydro
Gas
Other renewables
Import
Oil
22%
10,540
14%6,938
9%4,496
13%6,195
9%4,208
33%16,196
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
EVN GENCO1 GENCO2 GENCO3 POW Others
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Industry andConstruction
Administration &Residential
Commercial &Hotel, Banks
Agri, Forestry& Aquaculture
Others
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Import from China Import from LaosExporting to Cambodia Exporting to Laos
0
5
10
15
20
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Residential Medium company Big companies
Medium industrial Big industrial
5.65.9
6.5
7.1 7.27.5 7.4 7.3 7.4
8.1
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.7
10
12
7
3.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Jul 2020 – Page 15
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 96. Direct Generators (mn W) Fig 97. Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market (USDc/kWh)
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 98. Coal Plant Construction Starts in SE Asia Fig 99. Vietnam – Power Development Plan
Source: EVN Source: EVN
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
National system 26,626 30,825 33,440 38,449 41,067 45,145 48,278
Direct trading generators 9,523 11,852 12,868 14,798 17,960 22,536 23,008
% Direct generators 36% 38% 38% 38% 44% 50% 48%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
4.06 4.034.13
4.28
4.83
5.515.34
5.67 5.64 5.57
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2020 2025 2030
Solar 0 4 12
Wind 2 2 6
Hydro 19 22 25
Gas 9 15 19
Coal 26 48 60
0
50
100
150
5,055
12,920
6,355
2,7441,500
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 1H2019
Jul 2020 – Page 16
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS
Fig 100. MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%) Fig 101. VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance
-11.2
24.0
-2.4
-10.4
25.2
-2.3
-16.6
15.4
-3.2
-11.3
5.2
-19.4
-9.3
7.7
-16.9
-40
-20
0
20
40
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt. ASEAN VN-Index
50
65
80
95
110
125
Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt.
ASEAN VN-Index
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 102. Stock Market Performance (%) Fig 103. PER (x)
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2015 6.1 -12.1 -3.9 -3.9 -14.3 -14.0
2016 14.8 15.3 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 19.8
2017 48.0 20.0 9.4 25.1 18.1 13.7
2018 -9.3 -2.5 -5.9 -12.8 -9.8 -10.8
2019 7.7 1.7 -6.0 4.7 5.0 1.0
2020 YTD -16.9 -18.3 0.9 -24.1 -21.5 -16.2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2015 12.5 26.8 18.0 19.8 13.3 21.9
2016 16.5 26.2 16.9 19.4 12.2 16.6
2017 19.0 25.1 16.7 23.4 11.0 18.9
2018 16.4 19.4 18.8 18.9 11.1 15.9
2019 16.0 20.0 18.6 17.1 12.2 18.9
2020F 14.7 18.1 21.0 17.4 14.6 21.2
0
6
12
18
24
30
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 104. ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%) Fig 105. Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (USD mn)
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2019 7.2 14.2 12.8 4.1 6.2 -9.0
2020E -13.8 -12.1 -14.5 -25.2 -32.9 -28.6
2021E 28.7 29.7 23.3 29.3 19.5 29.2
2022E 20.1 22.2 6.4 12.8 16.9 15.0
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Jul20
Buy 3,864.9 7,308.2 11,445.7 7,009.6 4,542.9
Sell (4,198.5) (6,167.5) (9,573.5) (6,720.3) (4,589.8)
Net (333.6) 1,140.7 1,872.2 289.3 (46.8)
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
As of 31/7/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 31/7/2020 Source: Fiinpro, VinaCapital
Fig 106. Average Daily Turnover (USD mn) Fig 107. Vietnam – AUM of ETF
As of 30/6/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/6/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
203.8403.8
240.694.1
813.6
1,914.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018
2019
YTD
-202
0
2018
2019
YTD
-202
0
2018
2019
YTD-
2020
2018
2019
YTD
-202
0
2018
2019
YTD-
2020
2018
2019
YTD
-202
0
VN ID MY PH STI TH
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vaneck FTSE SSIAM VNX50 Premia MSCI VFMVN30 VNFIN LEAD VM Diamond
Jul 2020 – Page 17
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
SECTOR VALUATION BANDS
• Historical PER valuation bands of sectors under VinaCapital coverage.
Fig 108. Aviation Fig 109. Banks
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 110. Consumer Discretionary Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 111. Consumer Staples
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 112. Industrial Parks Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 113. Materials & Cyclicals
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 114. Oil & Gas
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 115. Pharmaceutical
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017 2018 2019 2020
+2std
+1std
Mean
-1std
-2std
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jul 2020 – Page 18
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Fig 116. Port & Logistics Fig 117. Property – Non Vingroup
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 118. Vingroup Family
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 119. Tech & Telecom
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 120. Utilities Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jul 2020 – Page 19
July 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal Classified: Internal
Disclaimer
© 2020 VinaCapital Fund Management JSC (VCFM). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is
being issued by VCFM or one of its affiliates for internal distribution in Vietnam. The information herein is based
on public and other sources believed to be reliable. Except for information about VCFM, VCFM makes no
representation about the accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projections expressed in this
report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily reflect
the opinions of VCFM and are subject to change without notice. VCFM has no obligation to update, amend or
in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or
opinion, projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make
an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures, or other derivative instruments in any jurisdiction.
Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments. Officers of VCFM may have a
financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. This research report is prepared
for general circulation and for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive or read this report. Investors
should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to
the future.
Financial instruments discussed in this note may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own
financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their
particular financial situation and investment objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published,
or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the express permission of VCFM in writing.
