Sale Feasibility Narrative Report Windy-Shingle Project

Sale feasibility is used to determine if the timber portion of a project is feasible, that is, will it sell, given current market conditions. The determination of feasibility relies on a residual value (stumpage = revenues - costs) feasibility analysis that uses local delivered log prices and stump to mill costs to determine if a project is feasible. The appraised stumpage rate from this analysis is compared to the base rate (revenues considered essential to cover regeneration plus minimum return to the Federal treasury). The timber component is considered to be feasible if the appraised stumpage rate exceeds the base rates. If the feasibility analysis indicates that the timber project is not feasible, the project may need to be modified. Infeasibility indicates an increased risk that the sale may not attract bids and may not be implemented. The estimation of sale feasibility was based on the Region 1 sale feasibility model, which is a residual value timber appraisal approach that takes into account logging system, timber species and quality, volume removed per acre, lumber market trends, costs for slash treatment, and the cost of specified roads, temporary roads and road maintenance. The appraised stumpage rate from the feasibility analysis was compared to base rates (revenues considered essential to cover regeneration plus minimum return to the federal treasury). The appraised stumpage rate and base rates are displayed in Table 1. The appraised stumpage rate is greater than the base rate, indicating that the proposed action is feasible (highly likely to sell). The sale feasibility model also includes an amount deficit figure, which in this case is zero. See the sale feasibility model/spreadsheet for all cost and revenue details.

Table 1 – Sale Feasibility (2017 dollars)

Category Measure No Action Alternative (Alt. 1)

Proposed Action (Alt. 2)

Timber Harvest Information

Acres Harvested 0 2,431

Sawtimber Volume Harvested (CCF)

0 97,240

Base Rate ($/CCF) 0 3.30 Appraised Stumpage

Rate ($/CCF) 0 134.36

Total Revenue 0 $13,065,166 The planned commercial treatment acres for the Windy-Shingle Project is approximately 2,431 acres rounded. Through experience it is anticipated some of the acres could be reduced due to logging system constraints, access, or low volume areas. The numbers above are an estimate of all included harvest acres in the project area. Through the Region 1 Alternative Feasibility spreadsheet, this timber sale is anticipated to provide an economic benefit (non-deficit) to the USFS and surrounding communities. Non-saw timber, which consists of pulp wood, commercial post & pole material and/or firewood, is present in some treatment units, but was not entered into the sale feasibility model. This Non-saw

material will be treated as included timber and be required to be removed from the timber sale units. The material will be sold to purchaser at minimum rates.