Safety Engineering and Risk/Reliability Analysis Division Newsletter

Vol. 1-September 2018 Edition

Dear SERAD Members,Since July 2018, I have assumed the chair

position of ASME's Safety Engineering andRisk/Reliability Analysis Division. You may havenoticed that we have added additionalemphasis on reliability analysis in representingthe letter “R” in the division name. Or, Risk andReliability now become R2. This change is indirection of the division strategy to clearlycommunicate with the group members thathuman safety and hardware and softwarereliability are both important in assessing therisk of mechanical systems.

One major change of the division in FY2019 is that we have dedicated a vice chairposition to work on the membership anddivision outreach. Dr. Xiaobin Le is elected totake such a position. He will be working withother executive committee members anddivision group members to attract more safetyand reliability engineers and scientists to theactivities sponsored by the division and thedivision itself. The majority of ASME leadersare volunteers, we need more participants tovolunteer and help make SERAD a strongerASME division.

CHAIR’S NOTE

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Contents

Chair’s Note

ASME Volunteer Structure Overview for SERAD

ASME IMECE2018 Conference

“Design, Reliability, Safety and Risk” track at IMECE 2018

Uncertainty Quantification for Reliability Analysis & Decision Making

Introduction of a Book on Risk and/or Reliability

Center for Risk and Reliability

SERAD Annual Student Safety Innovation Challenge Award

ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems

Workshop on Risk Analysis of Autonomous Vehicles

2018-2019 SERAD Leadership Team

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Finally, let me remind you that IMECE2018 is going to be held in Pittsburgh, PA, fromNovember 9-15. This year, SERAD co-sponsors a technical track “Design, Reliability, Safety,and Risk”. I hope that many of you will find a way to attend the conference and come totechnical sessions in this track. SERAD will also have a dedicated session for winners of ourannual student paper contest to present their works. An award dinner will be held duringthe conference.

Bin Zhou, PhDASME SERAD Chair 2018-2019

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ASME VOLUNTEER STRUCTURE OVERVIEW FOR SERAD

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Jennifer Seals Cooper, PESERAD Past-Chair

Have you been wondering how SERAD fits into the ASME organizational structure,especially with some of the recent structure changes?

As I served on the SERAD executive committee through the various roles, I was able towitness the recent changes in ASME’s structure and strategy. I have also volunteered inother areas of ASME. Today as past-chair of the division, I would like to give you a briefoverview of the current ASME volunteer structure and highlight some of the spaces in whichSERAD currently works with to produce our programming and products. You can find outmore about ASME’s new strategy at https://www.asme.org/about-asme.

ASME is a not-for-profit organization governed by a Board of Governors; the ASMEPresident chairs the Board of Governors. Reporting to the Board are various committeessuch as the Committee on Finance and Investment that help keep the business and strategicmission of ASME running. Also reporting to the Board are the Sector Vice Presidents.

There are four sectors within ASME: Standards & Certification, Public Affairs & Outreach,Students & Early Career, and Technical Events & Content. Within each of these sectors, staffand volunteers work together to develop programs, content, and events that align to ASMEstrategic mission and vision. Groups such as Divisions like SERAD can work with staff andother volunteers within any of these sectors. Our Division’s main activities fall within theTechnical Events & Content Sector (TEC) where conferences and journals reside. Within theTEC there are five segments: Engineering Science Segment (ESS), Energy Conversion andStorage (ECS), Design/Materials/Manufacturing (DMM), Energy Sources and Processing(ESP), and the Gas Turbine Segment. The IMECE conference where most of the SERADevents and activities are part of the Engineering Science Segment. We have alsoparticipated in events in the Energy Conversion and Storage Segment.

SERAD evaluates options for participation and coordination within various segments andsectors as resources allow; if you have an interest or are already participating in one ofthese other areas, please reach out to the SERAD executive committee. There is also a newcommittee at the sector level called the Group Engagement Committee (GEC) which aims tocoordinate resources and products for all groups.

One group that is important to mention is the Nominating Committee. While therepresentatives of the nominating committee are selected by the various Sectors each year,this group reports to the membership. This committee receives training throughout the yearto select the next President of the Society and fill the three openings on the Board ofGovernors. Please contact me for more information about the nominating committee orabout running for Society office. - CONTINUED ON PAGE 11

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“DESIGN, RELIABILITY, SAFETY AND RISK” TRACK AT IMECE 2018

Samy Missoum, PhDAerospace & Mechanical Engineering, University of Arizona

The 2018 ASME IMECE conference, held in Pittsburgh, PA will for the first time feature atrack called: ”Design, Reliability, Safety and Risk”. It succeeds and merges the “SafetyEngineering and Risk Analysis” and “Systems, Design, and Complexity” tracks found inprevious IMECE conferences. The track organizer is Dr. Chimba Mkandawire (Exponent, Inc)and the co-organizers are Dr. Giorgio Colombo (Politecnico Di Milano), Dr. Xiaobin Le(Wentworth Institute of Technology), Dr. John Wiechel (SEA, Ltd), Dr. Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad (Sahand University of Technology), and myself. In its final form, the track willcontain a total of 18 topics. Some topics are new but the majority have been carried overfrom previous years.

When I was asked to write an article about our track, I jumped at the opportunity toexplain and justify some of the changes from previous IMECE conferences. I am a specialistin design optimization and probabilistic design, and I value the rationale for creating aunique track, which stems from the realization that there is a substantial intersectionbetween the area of Design, and particularly design optimization, and the fields of Risk,Reliability, and Safety (RRS). This intersection is exemplified by the well-known topics ofreliability-based design optimization and robust design. Design for resilience, or how tomitigate failure in complex systems, is another area of research, which further demonstratesthis intimate link. Although this association might seem trivial to some of our readers, theengineering and research communities are often confined to their specific disciplines. Themerging of the Design and RRS areas for IMECE 2018 is a step towards promoting theconvergence of the two fields at that conference. In fact, the topic of the keynote lecture byDr. Roger McCarthy on Autonomous Vehicle Safety embodies the intersection betweenDesign and RRS, including the benefits, for both fields, of advances in machine learning anduncertainty quantification. Note that groups in the design community have long understoodthe importance of this convergence as exemplified by topics such “Simulation-based designunder uncertainty” or “Design for Resilience and Failure Recovery” at the ASMEInternational Design Engineering Technical Conferences (IDETC) conferences.

The new track saw a marked increase in the number of submissions compared to theseparated tracks in 2017. After 44 withdrawals, the final number of papers is 74. The RRS-related topics represented 43% of the final papers sessioned. Some specialized topics suchas “Reliability and risk in biomedical systems” or ``Propagation of uncertainty in nonlinearsystems” were not successful. However, such topics would need to be more aggressivelypromoted ahead of the submission window. In addition, they could also benefit fromcollaborations with other divisions. - CONTINUED ON PAGE 11

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UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND DECISION

Sankaran Mahadevan, PhDDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University

Model-based simulation is attractive for the reliability analysis of systems that are toolarge and complex for full-scale testing. However, model-based simulation involves manyapproximations and assumptions, and thus confidence in the simulation result is animportant consideration in risk-informed decision-making. Sources of uncertainty are bothaleatory and epistemic, arising from natural variability, information uncertainty, andmodeling approximations. Information uncertainty may be due to sparse, imprecise orqualitative data, measurement errors and data processing errors. Model uncertainty is dueto unknown model parameters, assumptions in deriving the model form, and numericalapproximations in solving the mathematical model of the system.

Information regarding the different sources of uncertainty is quite heterogeneous, frommultiple sources (such as computational models, tests, literature, expert opinion etc.),available in different formats, from simulations at multiple scales and physics, and differenttypes of model assessment activities (such as calibration, verification, and validation). Oneof the concerns in uncertainty quantification (UQ) is how to fuse all the available,heterogeneous information to quantify the uncertainty in model prediction; suchuncertainty aggregation is a forward problem. UQ also involves inverse problems, such asmodel parameter calibration and model error quantification, based on available simulationand testing data.

The Bayesian approach offers a systematic means for information fusion, and supportsboth the forward and inverse problems of uncertainty quantification. In particular, theBayesian network (BN) is an effective organizing approach for fusing information frommultiple sources. Recent work has expanded the BN approach to uncertainty quantification,diagnosis and prognosis using both discrete and continuous variables. Dynamic Bayesiannetworks (DBNs) can be used to fuse and track the uncertainty for systems evolving in time,and have been used to implement the digital twin concept by fusing heterogeneousinformation in diagnosis and prognosis. Recent work has also extended the use of BNtowards resource allocation decision making, in selecting the optimum combination ofcalibration and validation tests to meet the target uncertainty level in model prediction. Thiscapability has been facilitated by the development of probabilistic metrics for modelvalidation, especially the model reliability metric, and a roll-up methodology that integratesthe results of calibration, verification and validation across multiple levels of the modelingand testing hierarchy. - CONTINUED ON PAGE 11

MAKING IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS

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INTRODUCTION OF A BOOK ON RISK AND/OR RELIABILITY

Enrico Zio, PhDDepartment of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Handbook of RAMS in Railway Systems: Theory and PracticeQamar MahboobEnrico Zio2018

Modern railway systems are complex systems. Such complexity is the price to pay forimproved functionality and is due to the use of modern technologies, including computers,microprocessors, communication and IT technologies. These interface with the traditionalelectromechanical components through a complex network of inter- and intra-dependencies. In this complexity, there still remains the target for the designers, operators,maintainers and approvers to consider the acceptable limits of the systems states, withrespect to RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Safety). Modeling, assessment anddemonstrations of RAMS require careful and combined handling of• Railway engineering systems;• Development and application of mathematical and statistical methods, tools andtechniques;• Compliance with international and local standards, and laws and specific projectrequirements;• Associated finance and economics.

The primary objective for carrying out RAMS activities is to obtain a safe, highly reliableand available, innovative and sustainable railway system. RAMS studies are alsofundamental to increase the lifetime of railway systems. The railway RAMS relatedstandards provide RAMS specifications, and especially require the railway manufacturersand operators to implement a RAMS management system and demonstrate particular safetystandards and RAMS requirements. These standards mainly provide general guidelines ondifferent RAMS topics and do not provide details on how to use them in real world projects.

The topics provided in this handbook aim to improve the understanding and applicationof RAMS-related standards and theories, methods, tools and techniques suggested in thesestandards. For this objective, dedicated efforts have been coordinated worldwide in writingthis handbook. The result is the first-ever, comprehensive reference handbook that dealswith the many unique RAMS issues involved in the difficult environment of an operatingrailway system. This is of great relevance, given that the EU and some other parts of theworld have already mandated the use of RAMS in legislation for railway RAM and safetymanagement systems. - CONTINUED ON PAGE 12

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CENTER FOR RISK AND RELIABILITY - UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK

Mohammad Modarres, PhDDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland

Center for Risk and Reliability (CRR) is an umbrella organization for safety, risk, reliability,and security research at the A.J. Clark School of Engineering, University of Maryland. Itcovers applications to complex structure, systems and processes used in space, defense, civilaviation, nuclear energy, petroleum, medical device, information systems, and civilinfrastructures. CRR is the research arm of the Reliability Engineering Educational program--largest and most comprehensive M.S. and Ph.D. degree granting program in the U.S.

CRR has a long history at the University of Maryland. Starting in Fall 1983 professorsRoush and Modarres started offering related courses in risk and reliability under the NuclearEngineering Program. Later in 1985, then Dean George Dieter established the Center forReliability Engineering (CRE) to develop an interdisciplinary research and a formal graduateprogram in the College of Engineering. The graduate program in Reliability Engineering (RE)formally started in Fall 1989. The RE program and its faculty joined the Department ofMechanical Engineering in Fall 2003, and the scope of the CRE was broadened and renamedthe Risk and Reliability Center.

As an umbrella organization CRR draws expertise from the A.J. Clark School’s variousdepartments and offers cutting edge research on methods and tools. It provides researchleadership in the development of fundamental risk and reliability science and new frontiersin safety, security, risk and reliability studies that includes applications of Risk Management,Big data from Sensor and Data Analytics, Prognostics and Health Management of ComplexSystems and Structure, and Resilience Engineering.

Broad areas of the current research at CRR include: Development of Tools for HybridSystems Reliability (Systems of Hardware, Software and Human); Entropic-Based ReliabilityScience, Empirically-Based Probabilistic Physics of Failure of Systems and Structures;Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Energy and Space Systems; Bayesian Data Analysis, DeepLearning and Predictive Analytics; Uncertainty Characterization and Assessment; HumanReliability and Socio-Technical Systems Risk; Software Reliability and Cybersecurity RiskAnalysis; Hazard Analysis and Risk Analysis of Natural Events; Healthcare Systems RiskManagement and Medical Device Reliability; Risk- and Performance-Based Design andMaintenance; Cybersecurity Quantification; and Hybrid Systems Integration and Simulation.CRR has developed, organized and published a large number of technical resources thatincludes three leading laboratories, software tools, textbooks, workshops, symposia,scholarly papers, and seminars. Currently, CRR has 15 faculty members and additionalaffiliate members from various engineering departments and a larger group of graduatestudents and postdocs. - CONTINUED ON PAGE 12

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SERAD ANNUAL STUDENT SAFETY INNOVATION CHALLENGE AWARD

Since 1984, SERAD has been hosting an annual challenge to undergraduate andgraduate students to submit papers on Safety Engineering, Risk and Reliability Analysistopics. The papers are peer reviewed by experts in these areas. Winners are honored at anawards banquet during the annual ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congressand Exposition (IMECE). Recognitions also include cash honorariums and reimbursementwith a limit for conference related expense.

Starting 2018, the top two winning papers in each the undergraduate and graduategroups also will be presented in a special SERAD session at IMECE.

Congratulations to the 2018 Student Safety Innovation Challenge Winners!

Undergraduate Group Winners:1st place: Olivia Bridston, Gaelen Murray, Zac Oldham, from Gonzaga UniversityProject/Paper Title: “Design and Testing of a Novel Human Vibration Measurement System to Analyze the Connection Between Vibration Exposure and Hearing Loss”2nd place: Tarique Ahmad, from Missouri University of Science and TechnologyProject/Paper Title: “Consequences of Renewable Energy”

Graduate Group Winners:1st place: Amin Moniri-Morad, from Sahand University of TechnologyProject/Paper Title: “Flexible Parametric Proportional Hazard Model for Performance Assessment in Complex Systems; Case Study of Mining Equipment”2nd place: Tingting Wei, Shixi Ma, from Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityProject/Paper Title: “Equipment Fault Diagnosis Based on Image Recognition from Sensor Network Using Deep Learning”

2017 SERAD Student Paper Contest Awards Banquet at the Annual IMECE Conference

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WORKSHOP ON RISK ANALYSIS OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES; ISSUES AND

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Co-Organizers: Professor Mohammad Modarres, Centre for Risk and Reliability (CRR), University of Maryland, College ParkDr. Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad, Safety Engineering and Risk/Reliability Division (SER2AD), American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)/Ducted Systems, Johnson Controls Inc.

Date: April 26, 2019, Kay 1-2 Boardrooms, Kim Building of Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park

Background:In the past few years we have witnessed remarkable technology advancements andcompetitions in autonomous and connected transportation vehicles. These include majordevelopments of self driving electric cars by Tesla, Google and Mobileye. The traditional carmanufacturers have also entered the competition with their own designs such as Mercedes-Benz’s self-driving bus and Rolls-Royce remote-controlled cargo ship. Urban areas arebracing for a rapid infusion of these technologies into their roads in the near future. Morerecently Beverly Hills City Council unanimously approved plans for replacement of theirpublic transport vehicles with driverless vehicles. While technology development has beenthe prime focus of most recent technology innovations, we have witnessed only meageradvances on issues of risk, reliability and resilience. A number of accidents have alreadyoccurred, for example on 14 February 2016 a Google self-driving car while trying to avoidroad sandbags struck a bus. Also, news media reported a fatal accident involving a Teslavehicle on autopilot on 7 May 2016 in Florida, which crashed into a tractor-trailer. Mostsurveys show that while the public at large is extremely excited about these technologies,concerns over safety, software reliability, security, hacking/misuse, and licensing remainedas paramount, especially among educated and affluent individuals. Centre for Risk andReliability (CRR), University of Maryland, College Park and Safety Engineering andRisk/Reliability Division (SER2AD), American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)organizes one-day workshop on risk analysis of autonomous vehicles. The objective is togather the experts from academy, research institutes and industry to discuss the issue,identify the gaps and propose the directions for basic and applied researches. Theconference will follow with a congressional briefing to update the policy makers about therisk of the technology and potential directions for necessary funding.

- CONTINUED ON PAGE 13

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Stay Tuned for Updates and More Information; Email: mpourgol@gmail.com

(continued from Page 2)ASME Volunteer Structure Overview for SERAD

This has been just the briefest of overviews of the volunteer structure of ASME. There areexciting events, committees, and groups all over ASME and that’s only on the volunteer side.The organization also consists of dedicated and emphasis staff partners all over the worldthat help us achieve our mission and strategy. Please take some time to check out thewebsite for more information.

(continued from Page 4)“Design, Reliability, Safety and Risk” track at IMECE 2018

In conclusion, the new format of the track, merging Design and RRS is promising for twomain reasons: not only does it have the potential for increased visibility at IMECEconferences, but, more importantly, it will also encourage, at IMECE, an important fusion ofideas between these two groups. This is an opportunity for researchers and engineers in theRRS and Design communities to maximize the value and impact of their technical output.

(continued from Page 5)Uncertainty Quantification for Reliability Analysis and Decision Making in Engineering Systems

An important component of uncertainty quantification is sensitivity analysis, whichquantifies the relative contribution of different uncertainty sources towards the overallprediction uncertainty. While earlier methods have only considered aleatory uncertaintysources with deterministic models, recent developments have expanded sensitivity analysisto include epistemic sources related to data and model uncertainty by introducing anauxiliary variable approach. This has led to efficient methods for reliability analysis underepistemic uncertainty. Such advances in comprehensive uncertainty quantification haveenabled the development of solutions for decision-making under uncertainty, which havebeen illustrated for a variety of applications such as design optimization, test planning anddesign, system health and risk management, and manufacturing process optimization andcontrol.

Bio-SketchProfessor Sankaran Mahadevan has thirty years of research and teaching experience inreliability and risk analysis, design optimization, structural health monitoring, modelverification and validation, and uncertainty quantification. DR. Mahadevan was the invitedplenary speaker of SERAD for ASME IMECE2017. The article is summary of his presentation.

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(continued from Page 6)Introduction of a Book on Risk and/or Reliability

The handbook provides detailed guidance for those involved in the integration of thehighly complex multidisciplinary systems that must perform seamlessly to guarantee a safeand reliable railway transport system. It can be used as guidance in order to get the RAMand Safety tasks accomplished successfully, especially in complex railway projects. Thehandbook includes 38 chapters authored by senior key experts from industry and well-known professors and researchers from academia. The contributions are organized in twomain sections: Section 1, Basic concepts and prediction and estimation techniques; Section2, RAMS in practice and special topics. A graphical view of the highlights of the topicscovered under each Section is presented below.

Practical and insightful descriptions are presented throughout the book in order tonourish RAMS practitioners of any level, from practicing and knowledgeable senior RAMSengineers and managers to beginning professionals and researchers. Each chapter has beenwritten in an introductory style, providing the background and fundamentals, describingapproaches to the practical issues, giving real world and example applications, andconcluding with a comprehensive discussion and outlook. The comprehensive contents andthe involvement of a team of multidisciplinary experts provide confidence that thishandbook is of a high quality.

(continued from Page 7)Center For Risk And Reliability - University Of Maryland, College Park

Its faculty are internationally-recognized and highly respected scholars that include threemembers of the National Academy of Engineering and two who hold prestigious endowedprofessorships.

CRR’s three major laboratories are Cybersecurity Quantification (CQ), Hybrid SystemsIntegration and Simulation (HSIS), and Probabilistic Physics of Failure and Fracture (PPoFF)Laboratories. While the CQ lab is a leading computer-based cybersecurity simulation, theHSIS and PPoFF are well equipped experimental labs for human performance simulation andprobabilistic physics of failure model developments, respectively. In particular, the PPoFFlab is a major lab equipped to perform accelerate reliability testing with MTS uniaxial fatiguetesting machines, Digital Image Correlation and other microscopy approaches to fatiguedamage modeling, Acoustic Emission testing, Creep testing, Corrosion testing andEnvironmental Chambers for accelerated testing of systems based on Salt/Hot/Cold/Humidity/Cyclic environments. Collaborators and funding agencies of CRR include: U.S.NRC, ONR, NAVAIR, NASA, USDA, European Commission Joint Research Center, NorwegianInstitute of Technology, Australian Monash University, and RMIT University, and PaulScherrer Research Institute, Switzerland. 12

(continued from Page 10)Workshop on Risk Analysis of Autonomous Vehicles; Issues and Future Directions

The workshop will include following topics:• Intellectual and laboratory resources in the related areas of• Risk, reliability and resilience (R3) engineering,• Communications, information and network security,• Transportation and Road Infrastructure.• Robotic learning and Reasoning to Control Complex Behavior and Response• Legal, Ethical and Regulatory• Public Policy Initiatives• Energy and Environment Policies related to Autonomous Transportation Systems• Educational Programs Related to the Autonomous VehiclesSponsors:• Safety Engineering and Risk/Reliability Analysis Division, American Society of Mechanical

Engineers• Center for Risk and Study, University of Maryland, College Park• Research Committee on Risk Technology (CRT), American Society of Mechanical Engineers

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SERAD Volunteers Needed!

SERAD is seeking volunteers to help on several areas. You must be a member of ASME.The area are organization of SERAD webinars, outreach (LinkedIn, Facebook, …),newsletter, student contest, organizing conference topic for IMECE2018. You will beprovided RUs for the hours contributed to the efforts as well as recognition of yourcontributions. If you are interested in supporting this effort, please contact MohammadPourgol-Mohammad at pourgol-mohamadm2@asme.org for more information.

2018-2019 SERAD LEADERSHIP POSITIONS

Executive Committee Positions 2018-2019

Chair: Bin Zhoubin.zhou@fmglobal.com1st Vice-Chair:Jeremy Gernand jmg64@psu.edu2nd Vice-Chair-Treasurer:Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammadpourgol-mohamadm2@asme.org3rd Vice Chair-Membership:Xiaobin Lelex@wit.edu4th Vice-Chair-Secretary:Arun Veeramanyarun.veeramany@pnnl.govPast Chair:Jennifer Coopercooperj2@asme.org

Appointed Positions

Nominating Chair:OpenStudent Paper Award Chair:Bin ZhouStephen Ekwaro-OsireNewsletter Editors:Stephen Ekwaro-OsireMohammad Pourgol-MohammadWebinars/Outreach Chair:OpenIMECE2018 Track Chairs:Giorgio ColomboXiaobin LeChimba MkandawireSamy MissoumJohn WeichelMohammad Pourgol-MohammadIMECE2019 Chairs:Dengji ZhouMihai Diaconeasa

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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems:

Part A. Civil Engineering and Part B. Mechanical Engineering

More information at http://www.asce-asme-riskjournal.org/

Contact Professor Bilal M. Ayyub, Editor in Chief, ba@umd.edu

Call for Papers