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SAFERSeismic EArly Warning For EuRope
SeismicEarly
Warning
Naples
Bucharest
Athens
Istanbul
Cairo
Iceland
Switzerland
Greece
The starting point
The SAFER plan
Achievements
What next?
Future tasks
The agenda
Earthquake Early Warning
Seconds before the earthquake hits!
ProcessUnderstanding
Scientists
HazardAssessment
Scientists
RiskAssessment
Scientists,Engineers
SafeBuilding
Engineers
VariousGroups
KnowledgeTransfer
RapidEarthquakeInformation
Scientists,Engineers
Early Warning
Decision Makers,
Local Author.
RapidImpact
Assessment
Scientists,Engineers
The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component!
SAFER Where did we start?
SeismicEarly
Warning
Bucharest
Istanbul
In seismic early warningEurope was far behindthe US, Japan, Taiwan
and Mexico!
Only Istanbul and Bucharesthad started to develop
EW-capabilities for their cities!
In particular,the shake map technologyhad not been implemented
in Europe!
What Did We Have in Mind?
Naples
Bucharest
Athens
Istanbul
Cairo
Iceland
Switzerland
Greece
Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for Europe Implement and test new methods in European test areas and -cities
Seismic EWSeismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER)Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA
(at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk (at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk
reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.
However:The problem of
large magnitudes(from the first seconds)!
Achievements:A New Concept
forRegional Early Warning
CNRS/SAFER- Achievements:Rapid Source Parameters Within Minutes
TIME
Earthquake origin time
Earthquake detection and localisation
"Early P-wave magnitude"A few seconds
Early warning
Global CMT solutions: > 1 hour
Moment magnitude Mw2 minutes
Rapid sourceparameters
Step 1
Focal mechanism15 minutes
Step 2
40 minutesSlip distributionStep 3
Earthquake detection and localisation„Early P-wave magnitude“
Achievements (GFZ):Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me
The case of the great Sumatra earthquake
Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a
stable Me determination.More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008).
D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang
GEM
“Decentralized” versus “centralized” systems
Client station
A new technology for seismic early warning!
Basic Featuresself-organizing!decentralized!
low-cost!dense!
Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response
“People centered“ versus „one voice“
Actual
(Magnitude 6.3)
after D. Wald, USGS
6/4/09 7/4/09 8/4/09 9/4/09 10/4/09 11/4/09
BBC
dpa
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Rapid Damage and Loss AssessmentRapid Damage and Loss Assessment Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll DueTime-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009
First 12 hours:Death Toll < 50!
More rapid and more preciseimpact assessment
is needed!
Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR):
Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity Can be Overlayed on Infrastructure!
RapidImpact
Assessment
Shake-Maps within a few minutes!(The Northridge Scenario)
Ground Shaking IntensityThe shake-map-technologyhas now been implemented
through SAFERin many places in Europe!
andreal-time damage assessment
is feasible,but needs more testing (GEM?)
New Application of Time-Dependent Hazard Assessment:
Near Real-TimeAftershock Forecasting
Combining Non-Stationary Statistics
with Physics of Earthquakes
Achievements (GFZ/ETH):
Achievements (NGI):
Early Warningfor
Earthquake Induced Landslides
Achievements: Visibility
American Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007
European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008
European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008
European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2009
2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009
Major Contributions to International Meetings
Dissemination
Public Relation
Achievements: Publications
International Journals: More than 30
Book on Early Warning (Springer)
Presentations: More than 100
Second Book (Springer) in Preparation
Special Volume in Geophys. Research Letters Special Issue of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (SDEE, in Preparation))
Further Achievements
Contracting many young scientists
Contributing to the networking between large European projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,…..
Forming a European Science Community in the field of Seismic Early Warning
FINAL DEADLINES
SAFER FINAL MEETING JUNE 3th-5th
END OF THE PROJECT JUNE 14th
DEADLINE FOR SUBMITING THE FINAL ACTIVITY REPORT AND FINANCIAL REPORT (INCLUDING AUDIT CERTIFICATES)
JULY 30th
PROPOSED SCHEDULE
REPORTS FROM WP LEADERS AND TEST SITE LEADERS JUNE 15th
FINANCIAL REPORTS AND AUDIT CERTIFICATES JULY 15th
SUBMISSION OF THE FINAL REPORT JULY 30th
SAFERFinal Deadlines and Proposed Schedule
Partner D Total Delivered Missing Percentage
GFZ 18 10 8 55,56%
AMRA 13 10 3 76,92%
UNIKARL* 7 7 0 100,00%
KOERI 4 1 3 25,00%
UBER 6 3 3 50,00%
INGV 6 5 1 83,33%
NOA 7 4 3 57,14%
NKUA 9 4 5 44,44%
CNRS** 1 0 1 0,00%
EMSC 2 2 0 100,00%
ETHZ 6 5 1 83,33%
NIEP 6 6 0 100,00%
NORSAR 7 6 1 85,71%
NGI 4 2 2 50,00%
IMOR 10 4 6 40,00%
WAPMER 2 2 0 100,00%
SELEX 3 2 1 66,67%
NRIAG 2 0 2 0,00%
KNMI 0 0 0
CEDIM 2 2 0 100,00%
Berkeley 1 0 1 0,00%
TOTAL 116 75 41 64,66%
* del 2.17 and del.4.18 are identical
** CNRS has delivered its contribution to del.2,5 but the deliverable has not been completed yet
SAFERDeliverables
ReportAgendaVision