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qeTevan marSava
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
statistika
(leqciebis kursi)
2
sarCevi leqcia 1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis Teoriuli
safuZvlebi 3
leqcia 2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis
ganviTarebis istoria da misi Tanamedrove organizacia 16
leqcia 3. klasifikaciebi da dajgufebani saerTaSoriso
statistikaSi 36
leqcia 4. erovnul angariSTa sistema saerTaSoriso
statistikaSi 50
leqcia 5. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa 72
leqcia 6. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika 94
leqcia 7. sagadasaxdelo balansi 116
leqcia 8 saerTaSoriso safinanso da sabanko statistika 138
leqcia 9. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika 168
leqcia 10. Sromis saerTaSoriso statistika 185
leqcia 11. cxovrebis donis saerTaSoriso statistika 206
leqcia 12. statistikuri meTodebi saerTaSoriso modelirebasa
da prognozirebaSi 241
leqcia 1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis Teoriuli
safuZvlebi
3
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis dargi, misi Seswvlis obieqti da sagani
2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi Tanamedrove etapze
3. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri mecnierebis sxva dargebTan
4. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis meTodologia 5. saerTaSoriso statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri
statistikis dargi, misi Seswavlis obieqti da sagani
Tanamedrove etapze statistikuri mecniereba warmoadgens sxvadasxva
qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi mimdinare socialur-politikuri
movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxaris Semswavlel
urTirTdakavSirebul disciplinebis kompleqss. es kompleqsi moicavs:
maTematikur statistikas. is Seiswavlis sxvadasxva movlenebisa da
procesebis analizisa da prognozirebis maTematikur-statistikur
meTodebs. es meTodebi farTod gamoiyeneba yoveli qveynis
socialur-ekonomikuri situaciis dasaxasiaTeblad.
statistikis zogad Teorias. misi kvlevis sagania Sesaswavli
movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxaris amsaxveli
informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis, damuSavebisa da analizis
mecnierulad dasabuTebuli meTodologiis SemuSaveba.
socialur-ekonomikur statistikas (makroekonomikuri statistika).
is ikvlevs ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, msvlelobisa da
Sedegebis amsaxvel socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobriv
mxares.
dargobriv statistikebs. TiToeuli maTgani Seiswavlis ekonomikis
sxvadasxva dargSi mimdinare movlenebisa da procesebis
raodenobriv mxares. ganasxvaveben mrewvelobis, soflis meurneobis,
mSeneblobis da sxva dargebis statistikebs. dargobrivi statistika
iyenebs maTematikuri statistikis, statistikis zogadi Teoriisa da
makroekonomikuri statistikis mier SemuSavebul erTian
4
meTodologiur principebs. amavdroulad dargobrivi maCvenebelTa
sistema aigeba Sesaswavli dargis sfecifikis gaTvliswinebiT.
erovnul angariSTa sistemas (eas), romelic asaxavs ekonomikuri
saqmianobis winamZRvrebs, msvlelobasa da Sedegebs, statistikuri
cxrilebis formiT warmodgenil, urTierTdakavSirebul
ganzogadebul ekonomikur maCvenebelTa sistemis meSveobiT.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikas statistikur mecnierebaTa
sistemaSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia. is ekonomikuri statistikis
dargia da iTvleba Tanamedrove ekonomikuri ganaTlebis mniSvnelovan
Semadgenelad. am Tezisis safuZvlianobas ganapirobebs Semdegi
garemoeba:
1. ekonomikuri saqmianobis aqtivizacia saxalxo meurneobis
yvela doneze;
2. savaWro-ekonomikuri, savaluto-finansuri da samecniero teqnikuri,
aseve sazRvargareTis yveynebTan sagareo-ekonomikuri kavSirebis
iseTi axali formebis ganviTareba rogoricaa pirdapiri sameurneo
kavSirebi, erToblivi sawarmoebi, Tavisufali ekonomikuri zonebi,
sasazRvro da sanapiro vaWroba.
kvlevis obieqtze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben saerTaSoriso
urTierTobis statistikis or cnebas:
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika viwro gagebiT, romelic
Seiswavlis sxvadsxva qveynebsa da qveynebis gaerTianebebs Soris
saerTaSoriso doneze mimdinare socialur-ekonomikur movlenebsa
da procesebs. qveynebis gaerTianebebi _ evropis qveynebis,
ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da gnviTarebis organizacia,
arabeTis qveynebis liga, nafTobis eqsportiori qveynebis
organizacia da sxva.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika farTo gagebiT ikvlevs
msoflio meurneobas mTlianad, e.i. ara mxolod qveynebsa da maT
gaerTianebebs Soris mimdinare socialur-ekonomikur movlenebsa
da procesebs aramed calkeul qvenebSi mimdinareebs.
5
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kvlevis obieqtia Sesaswavli
niSnis mqone ekonomikuri erTeulebis erToblioba _ saerTaSoriso
TanamSromlobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi, qveynebis monawileoba Sromis
saerTaSoriso ganawilebaSi, maTi CarTulobis done msoflio sameureneo
kavSirebSi, sagareo-ekonomikuri kavSirebis efeqtianoba, kerZod eqsport-
iportis operaciebis.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis sagans warmoadgens msoflio
ekonomikaSi mimdinare social-ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobrivi
Seswvla. amasTan dakavSirebiT saerTSoriso urTierTobis statistika
mowodebulia gamoikvlios ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebi,
msvleloba da Sedegebi.
aRricxvis saerTaSoriso praqtikis Sesabamisad ekonomikuri
saqmianoba moicavs, mTliand sazogadoebisa da misi calkeuli wevrebis
moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad, materialuri keTildReobisa da
momsaxurebis Sesaqmnelad adamianis mizanmimarTul saqmianobas. aq
igulisxmeba saqmianobis yvela saxeoba, garda kriminaluris, hobis da
ufaso (aunazRaurebadi) Sinamomsaxurebisa.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis wanamZRvria erovnuli simdidre. is moicavs:
1. ZiriTad da sabrunav fondebs;
2. samomxmareblo daniSnulebis maragebs;
3. miwas da bunebriv resursebs;
4. oqros da sazRvargareTul valutas;
5. aramaterialur aqtivebs;
erovnul simdidreSi ar Sedis klimati, ekonomikuri situacia,
adamianiseuli resursebi, qveynis politikuri wyoba.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegia adamianis SromiT Seqmnili materialuri
keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis erToblioba. am Sedegebis
mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia mTliani damatebuli Rirebuleba, romelic
6
gaiangariSeba, rogorc sxvaoba produqciis mTlian gamoSvebasa da
Sualedur moxmarebas Soris.
kvlevis konkretuli sagnis SerCeva damokidebulia kvlevis miznebsa da
amocanebze. kvlevis sagani SeiZleba iyos erovnuli simdidris
maCveneblebi; mSp dinamikisa da struqturis maCveneblebi; cxovrebis
donis maCveneblebi da sxv.
kvlevis sagnisa da obieqtis sworad SerCeva mniSvnelovanad ganapirobebs
miRebuli Sedegebis sizustes.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi
Tanamedrove etapze
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis prioritetuli, centraluri
amocanaa socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis dinamikisa da struqturis
Seswavla da maTi urTierTkavSiris daxasiaTeba. M
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis mier Tanamedrove etapze
gadasawyvet ZiriTad amocanebs ganekuTvneba:
1. calkeuli qveynebis ganviTarebis dinamikisa da donis maxasiaTebeli
obieqturi ganzogadebuli maCveneblebis SemuSaveba da gaangariSeba;
2. moqmedi statistikuri klasifikatorebis srulyofa da axlebis
ageba;
3. saerTaSoriso standartebTan erovnuli statistikebis adaptaciis
programis realizacia;
4. makroekonomikuri statistikisa da aRricxvis saerTaSoriso
sistemis ganviTarebis gamocdilebis gavrceleba;
5. statistikuri informaciis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofa
saerTaSoriso doneze;
6. statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelyofa.
calkeuli qveynis ganviTarebis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebis
7
SemuSavebis amocana iTvaliswinebs qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
Semdeg maCveneblebs:
mTliani Sida produqti;
mTliani erovnuli Semosavali;
wminda erovnuli Semosavali;
moqalaqis piradi Semosavali;
danazogebi piradi Semosavlidan %-Si;
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvis saxelmwifo danaxarjebi
mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebiT %-Si;
realuri Semosavli erT sul mosaxleze;
mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofadoba sacxovrebliTa da xangrZlivi
moxmarebis sagnebiT;
sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi
amocanaa statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelyofa.
statistikuri informaciis arautyuaroba aixsneba imiT, rom gamoiyeneba
informaciis arasrulyofili wyaroebi da maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis
gamartivebuli xerxebi.
statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelsayofad saWiroa:
erovnul angariSTa sistemis erTi maCvneblebis sxva maCveneblebTan
urTierTSekavSirebis gamoyeneba;
erTi da igive maCveneblebis mravalvariantuli gaangariSebis
gamoyeneba.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikaSi dadgenilia informaciis
utyuarobis 4 klasi:
A klasi (cdomileba 3%- mde);
B klasi (cdomileba 3%-dan 10%-mde);
C klasi (cdomileba 10%-dan 20%-mde);
D klasi (cdomileba 20%-is zemoT);
8
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis zemoT CamoTvlili amocanebi
araris amomwuravi da mudmivi. sazogadoebis ganviTarebis sxvadasxva
etapze saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis winaSe warmoiSoba axali
konkretuli amocanebi.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri mecnierebis
sxva dargebTan
saerTaSoriso statistika mWidroda dakvSirebuli rig mecnierul
disciplinasTan. pirvel rigSi aRsaniSnavia misi kavSiri Tanamedrove
ekonomikur TeoriasTan, romelic SeimuSavebs ganmartebebs da
mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri kategoriebisa da maCveneblebis gaangariSebis
meTodologias, Seiswavlis sxvadasxva qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
tendenciebsa da kanonzomierebebs. saerTaSoriso statistika, ekonomikuri
maCveneblebis praqtikuli gaangariSebebis gansaxorcieleblad, iyenebs
ekonomikiuri Teoriis SemuSavebebs. Tavis mxriv, statistika amdidrebs
ekonomikur Teorias konkretuli ekonomikuri informaciiT da am
informaciis sfuZvelze gakeTebuli daskvnebiT. aseTi urTierTkavSiri da
urTierTdamokidebuleba iZleva ekonomikuri Teoriisa da statistikis
ganviTarebis SesaZleblobas.
saerTaSoriso statistika, Tavis praqtikul saqmianobaSi iyenebs
statistikis zogadi Teoriisa da maTematikuri statistikis mier
SemuSavebuli informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis, damuSavebisa da
analizis meTodebs. rac iZleva miRebuli informaciis sistematizirebis,
misi xarisxisa da saimedoobis Semowmebis, socialur-ekonomikuri
movlenebis ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da kanonzomierebis dadgenis,
calkeuli qveynebis ekonomikuri saqminobis ganviTarebis prognozirebis
saSualebas. statistikis zogadi Teoria da maTematikuri statistika,
saerTaSoriso statistikis mier miRebuli Sedegebis gamoyenebiT,
sruloyofs ekonomikuri informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis,
damuSavebisa da analizis meTodologias.
9
saerTaSoriso statistika mWidro kavSirSia sabuRaltro aRricxvasTan.
is ekonomikuri operaciebis asaxvisas farTod iyenebs ormagi Caweris
buRaltrul meTods, kerZod eas-is angariSebis agebis dros. sawarmos
doneze erTgvarovani ekonomikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSebis
meTodologiuri erTianoba, romelsac axorcielebs buRaltruli
aRricxva, xolo calkeuli qveynebisa da qveynebis gaerTianebebis doneze
_ saerTaSoriso statistika iZleva ekonomikuri saqminobis yvela doneze
(sawarmos, ekonomikis dargisa da seqtoris, ekonomikuri regionebis,
calkeuli qveynebisa da qveynebis gaerTianebebis) erTgvarovani
socialur-ekonomikuri maCveneblebis Sesadarisobisa da urTierT
SekavSirebis SesaZleblobas.
saerTaSoriso statistika, erovnuli ekonomikis calkeuli dargebis
ekonomikuri saqmianobis Semswavleli rigi disciplinis safuZvelia. is
SeimuSavebs ekonomikis sxvadsxva dargebis maCvenebelTa sistemis agebis
ZiriTad meTodologiur principebs da rekomendacias uwevs maT
gamoyenebas sxvadasxva qveynis statistikur praqtikaSi.
aRsaniSnavia saerTaSoriso statistikis kavSiri progrmirebasa da
eleqtronuli teqnikis gamoyenebasTan. es kavSiri aixsneba Semdegi
ZiriTdi garemoebebiT:
saerTaSoriso statistikas saqme aqvs didi moculobis
informciasTan, romlis mopoveba, damuSveba da anlizi SeuZlebelia
eleqtronuli teqnikis gmoyenebis gareSe;
gaeros, saerTSoriso organizaciebis, qveynebis gaerTianebebisa da
calkeuli qveynebis statistikuri organoebis gamaerTianebeli
ekonomikuri informaciis droulad miReba da damuSaveba
SeuZlebelia msoflio eleqtronuli qselis Seqmnis gareSe.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis meTodologia
Cven avRniSneT saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri sxva
mecnierebebTan. es kavSiri uwinaresad vlindeba imaSi, rom saerTaSoriso
statistika iyenebs rigi sxva disciplinis mier SemuSavebul meTodebs.
10
socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis statistikuri Seswavlis
fuZemdebluri meTodia dialeqtikuri meTodi. romlis Sesatyvisad
saerTaSoriso statistika ikvlevs ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobriv
mxares maT Tvisobriv mxaresTan ganuyrel kavSirSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneba
raodenobriobis TvisesbriobaSi gadasvlis kanoni, dapirispirebaTa
erTianobisa da brZolis kanoni, uaryofis uaryofis kanoni da sxva.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika utyuari socialur-ekonomikuri
informaciis misaRebad iyenebs, statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier
SemuSavebul, statistikuri dakvirvebis sxvadasxva meTods (mimdinare
dakvirveba, gamokiTxvebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba da a.S.).
miRebuli socialur-ekonomikuri monacemebis statistikuri analizi,
agreTve xorcieldeba statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier SemuSavebuli
meTodebis erTobliobis safuZvelze. maT Soris umniSvnelovanes
miekuTvneba:
1. saSualoebis meTodi iZleva gamosakvlevi erTobliobis yvela
erTeulisaTvis Sesaswavli niSnis saSualo sididis ganszRvris
saSualebas (sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba, erTi muSakis
saSualo realuri da nominaluri xelfasi, mTliani Sida
produqtis warmoeba erT sul mosaxleze da a.S.;
2. variaciis maCveneblebi axasiaTeben Sesaswavli niSnis mniSvnelobis
gadaxras maTi saSualo sididisgan. variaciis maCveneblebi iZleva
erTobliobis yvela erTeulis, Sesaswavl niSanTan mimarTebiT,
erTgvaronobis doneze daskvnis gamotanis SesaZleblobas.
3. statistikuri dajgufebis meTodi iZleva Sesawavli erTobliobis
yvela erTeulis, erTi an ramodenime niSnis safuZvelze,
erTgvarovan jgufebSi gaerTianebis SesaZleblobas;
4. dinamikuri mwkrivebis meTodi, romlis arsi mdgomareobs
socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis droSi ganviTarebis amsaxveli
samomento da intervaluri maCveneblebis erTobliobis agebaSi;
5. saindeqso meTodi romelic, gansakuTrebuli SefardebiTi
sidideebis (indeqsebis) meSveobiT iZleva socialur-ekonomikuri
11
movlenebis dinamikis droSi Seswavlis an erTgvarovani movlenebis
sivrceSi Sepirispirebis saSualebas;
6. socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis urTierTkavSiris Seswavlis
statistikuri meTodebi, maT miekuTvneba: urTierTdakavSirebuli
ekonomikuri maCveneblebis paralelur mwkrivTa meTodi; kavSiris
simWidrovis araparametruli Sefasebis gaangariSebis meTodi
(asociaciis koeficienti, kontingenciis koeficienti, pirsonis
urTierT SeuRlebis koeficienti, spirmanis rangebis korelaciis
koeficienti, fexneris koeficienti da sxva); korelaciur-
regresiuli analizi, romelic erTi mxriv, wyviladi
koeficientebisa da mrvlobiTi korelaciis sfuZvelze iZleva
Sesawvli movlenebis urTierTkavSiris simWidrovis donis Sefsebis
SesaZleblobas, xolo meore mxriv, Sesaswavli faqtorebis
saSedego niSanze gavlenis raodenobrivi Sefasebis saSualebas
korelaciur-regresiuli gantolebebis parametrebisa da
elstikurobis Sesabamisi koeficientebis safuZvelze.
7. SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis meTodi. es meTodi gansakuTrebul
mniSvnelobas iZens ekonomikuri maCveneblebis mixedviT sruli
perioduli angariSgebis sistemis ar arsebobis pirobebSi.
SerCeviTi meTodis sworad gamoyeneba, sizustis TvalsazrisiT,
iZleva Sesaswavli maCveneblebis savsebiT damakmayofilebeli
Sefasebis SesaZleblobas. misi gamoyenebis Sedegad saWiro
informaciis misaRebad miiRweva SromiTi, materialuri da
finansuri danaxarjebis ekonomia. garda amisa mniSvnelovnad
mcirdeba am informaaciis mopovebaze, damuSavebsa da analize
daxarjuli dro.
8. klasteruli analizi, romelic iZleva saSualebas ganxorcieldes
Sesaswavli erTobliobis mravalganzomilebiani dajgufeba
ramdenime niSanTan mimarTebiT. Sedegad erToblioba iyofa
erTgvarovan klasterebad. E
9. ekonomikuri saqminobis gamokvlevisas saerTaSoriso urTierTobis
statistika farTod iyenebs sabalanso meTods. is gamoiyeneba
ramdenime variantSi:
12
balansi, rogorc mTelisa da misi calkeuli komponentebis toloba
(magliTad, dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikis
dargebis mixedviT;
balansi, rogorc resursebisa da danaxarjebis toloba (magaliTad,
saTbob-energetikuli resursebis da maTi gamoyenebis balansi);
balansi, rogorc Sesaswavl erTobliobSi gansazRvruli periodis
ganmavlobaSi mimdinare cvlilebebis asaxvis saSualeba. Aam
SemTxvevaSi sabalanso cxrili moicavs monacemebs, romlebic
axsiaTebs periodis dasawyisisTvis arsebuls, periodSi Sevsebas,
periodSi gasvlas da periodis bolos arsebuls.
sabalanso meTodi aris fuZemdebluri eas-is agebisas. erovnuli
ekonomikis angariSebis yvela saSedego maCvenebeli (mSp sabazro
fasebSi; mTliani mogeba/mTliani Sereuli Semosavali; mTliani
erovnuli Semosvali; mTliani gankargviTi erovnuli Semosavali da
sxva) gaiangariSeba sabalanso meTodiT, rogorc sxvaoba resursebis
jamsa da gamoyenebis sxva muxlebs Soris.
statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier SemuSavebul instrumentebs _
statistikur cxrilebs, naxazebs, grafikebs, diagramebs saerTaSoriso
urTierTobis statistika iyenebs statistikuri informaciis TvalsaCino
da kompaqturad warmosadgenad.
statistikuri informaciis mopovebis, damuSavebisa da analizis
CamoTvlili meTodebi saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikas aZlevs
qveynis, qveynebis gaerTianebisa da msoflio doneze ekonomikuri
saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, msvlelobisa da Sedegebis amsaxveli urTierT
dakvSirebuli ekonomikur-statistikuri maCveneblebis agebis saSualebas.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis sagani da obieqti gansazRvrvs
ekonomikur-statistikur maCvenebelTa sistemis agebis principebs, mis
struqturas da Sedgenilobas.
13
ekonomikur-statistikuri maCvenebeli asaxavs socialur-ekonomikuri
procesebis raodenobriv mxares maT Tvisebriv mxaresTan ganuyrel
kavSirSi. Eekonomikuri saqmianoba Seicavs urTierTdamokidebulebaSi da
urTierTkavSirSi myof sxvadasxva operciebis did raodenobas. amitom
ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZrvrebis, msvlelobisa da Sedegebis
amsaxveli maCvenebelTa sistema aseve unda moicavdes urTierT
dakavSirebul maCveneblebs, TiToeuli maTgani asaxvs gansazRvruli
socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobriv mxares.
ekonomikuri sqmianobis winamZrvrebia miwa da bunebrivi resursebi,
romelic warmoadgens nebismieri qveynis cxovelqmediTobis materialur
safuZvels; mosaxleoba SromiTi resursebis formiT (Sromisunariani
mosaxleoba); dagrovili materialuri keTildReoba, romelic wina
periodebis Sromis Sedegia; aramateriluri aqtivebi da finansuri
resursebi.
aRniSnulis Sesatyvisad ekonomikuri saqminobis maxasiaTebelma
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemam unda
micvas:
miwis da bunebrivi resursebis maCveneblebi (farTobi, klimaturi
pirobebi, sasargeblo wiayiseulis maragebi, tyis resursebi, wylisa
da hidroenergo resursebis maragebi, wylebis, zRvebisa da
okeanebis simdidre; qveynis sanapiro Selfi, flora da fauna);
garemos mdgomareobis maCveneblebi (miwis, wylis, haeris; myari,
Txevadi, da airsaxovani narCenebis warmoqmnis, gamonabolqebis
SemCnevis da ganadgurebis; garemos dacvis RonisZiebebisa da maTi
efeqianobis);
qveynis SromiTi potencialis maCveneblebi (qveynis mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba, Semadgenloba da dinamika, Sromisunarini mosaxleobis,
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis, dasaqmebulebis, umuSerebis);
ZiriTadi kapitalis arsebobis, struqturis, mdgomareobis da
moZraobis maCveneblebi;
sabrunavi kapitalis, rezervebis da sxvadsxva daniSnulebis
maragebis statistikis maCveneblebi;
mosaxleobis dagrovili qonebis maCveneblebi.
14
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi
centraluri adgili ukavia ekonomikuri saqminobis msvlelobisa da
Sedegebis amsxvel maCveneblebs. is moicavs naturalur, pirobiT-
naturalur da RirebulebiT maCveneblebs.
naturaluri maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba konkretuli produqtisa da
momsaxurebis warmoebis da moxmarebis dasaxasiaTeblad. aRsaniSnvia, rom
bevr SemTxvevaSi sxvadsxva qveyanaSi erTgvarovani produqtis gasazomad
gamoiyeneba zomis gansxvavebuli erTeulebi.
pirobiT-naturaluri maCveneblebi iZleva erTgvarovani maCveneblebis
gaაngariSebis bazis gafarToebis saSualebas. Tumca isini iSviaTad
gamoiyeneba. magaliTisaTvis SeiZleba moviyvanoT saTbob-enrgetikuli
resursebi, am resursebis yvela saxeoba gadaiangariSeba pirobiT
sawvavSi, romlis TbogamomuSaveba Seadgens 7200kkal/kg an gansazRvruli
koeficientebiT gadaiangariSeba nafTobSi. es iZleva qveyanaSi saTbob-
enrgetikuli resursebis warmoebisa da gamoyenebis Sefasebis da maTi
naturalur-nivTobrivi struqturis Seswavlis saSualebas.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sisitemaSi
mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia RirebulebiT (fulad) maCveneblebs,
romelTa Rirseba mdgomareobs imaSi, rom isini iZlevian ganzogadebuli,
dajamebuli socialur-ekonomikuri maCveneblebis miRebis saSualebas
ekonomikuri saqmianobis nebismier doneze (ekonomikuri erTeulebis;
erovnuli ekonomikis dargebisa da seqtorebis; ekonomikuri regionebis
da mTliand qveynis). RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis ZiriTadi naklovanebaa
maTi Zlieri damokidebuleba inflaciis tempebze mocemul qveyanaSi. Ees
iwvevs RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis dinamikuri mwkrivebis Sesadaris
fasebSi gadaangariSebis aucileblobas, rac TavisTavad rTul da
Sromatevad amocanas warmoadgens. garda amisa erTgvarovani
RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis Sesadarisoba saerTaSoriso doneze aseve
moiTxovs maT gadaangariSebas Sesdaris valutaSi, rac yovelTvis
atarebs miaxlobiT xasiaTs.
15
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ekonomikuri saqmianobis
Sedegebisa da ekonomikuri potencialis maCvenebelTa bazaze igeba
ekonomikuri efeqtianobis maCvenebelTa qvesistema. ekonomikuri
efeqtianobis maCveneblebi warmoadgenen saqmianobis Sedegebisa da
resursebis Tanafardobas an am Sedegebis miRwevasTan dakavSirebuli
danaxarjebis Tanafardobas.
ekonomikuri efeqtianobis maCvenebelTa qvesistema moicavs SromiTi
potencialis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebs (dasaqmeba, umuSeroba,
samuSao drois gamoyeneba, Sromisa da warmoebis faqtorebis
mwarmoebluroba da a.S.); warsuli (ganivTebuli) Sromis gamoyenebis
danaxarjTa efeqtanobis maCveneblebs (fondtevadoba da fondukugeba,
masalatevadoba da masalaukugeba, materialuri resursebis xvedriTi
xarjebis maCveneblebi da sxv.); kapitaldabandebebis efeqtianobis
maCveneblebi (kapitaltevadoba, kapitalukugeba, kapitaldabandebebis
amogebis vada da sxv.).
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemis
mniSvnelovani Semadgenelia msoflio ekonomikis sxvadsxva dargebis
ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, mimdinareobisa da Sedegebis
amsaxveli qvesistemebi. Ees qvesistemebi moicavs samuSao Zalis, ZiriTadi
da sabrunavi kapitalis arsebobis, struqturis da moZraobis naturalur
da RirebulebiT maCveneblebs da aseve mrewvelobis, s/m da mSeneblobis
mniSvnelovani produqciis warmoebis naturalur da RirebulebiT
maCveneblebs.
sabazro ekonomikis ganviTarebis pirobebSi pirvelxarisxovan
mniSvnelobas iZens ekonomikuri saqmianobis finansuri maCveneblebi. maT
dasaxasiaTeblad saerTaSoriso statistika SeimuSavebs saxelmwifo
finansebis, gadasaxadebisa da fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis
maCvenebelTa qvesistemas.
inflaciis statistikuri SeswavlisaTvis gamoiyeneba fasebis da
faswarmoqmnis maCvenebelTa sistema. Aam SemTxvevaSi Seiswavleba ara
16
mxolod fasebi, aramed xorcieldeba RirebulebiTi (fuladi)
maCveneblebis Sesadaris fasebSi gadafasebis meTodebis SemuSavebac.
msoflio ekonomikis ganviTarebis Tanamedrove etapi xasiaTdeba
sxvadasxva qveynebis ekonomikuri integraciisa da globalizaciis
procesis daCqarebiT. am procesis asaxva xdeba sagareoekonomikuri
kavSirebis maCvenebelTa qvesistemis meSveobiT. is moicavs saqonliT da
momsaxurebiT sagareo vaWrobis maCveneblebs, da agreTve qveynis
sagadasaxdelo balansis maCveneblebs.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema sruldeba
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis, Sromis pirobebisa da dasvenebis
maCvenebelTa qvesistemiT. maTgan yvelaze mniSvnelovania:
mosaxleobis demografiuli maCveneblebi, nominaluri da realuri
xelfasi; sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculoba, struqtura da
dinamika;
produqciis ZiriTadi saxeobebis moxmareba erT sul mosaxleze;
mosaxleobis sacxovrebliT, komunaluri momsaxurebiTa da
xangrZlivi moxmarebis sayofacxovrebo teqnikiT
uzrunvelyofadoba;
jandacvis, ganaTlebis, kulturisa da mecnierebis statistikis
maCveneblebi; kriminluri statistikis maCveneblebi. am qvesistemaSi
Sedis Sromis pirobis maCveneblebi (samuSao drois xangrZlivoba,
profesiuli daavdebebi, sawarmoo travmatizmi, SromiTi
konfliqtebi, axal adgilze ekologiuri mdgomareoba _ mavne
gamosxiveba, damtverianeba, xmaurianoba da sxv.) da dasvenebis
pirobebi (Svebulebis xangrZlivoba, Tavisufali dro, Sida da
saerTaSoriso turizmi da sxv.).
leqcia 2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebis
istoria da misi Tanamedrove organizacia
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis istoriuli warmoSoba
17
2. saerTaSoriso statistikuri instituti 3. saerTaSoriso statistikiuri kongresebi da maTi roli
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi 4. saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da maTi statistikuri samsaxurebi 5. saerTaSoriso statistikis Tanamedrove organizacia 6. evrokavSiris statistikuri samsaxuri 7. oficialuri da araoficialuri statistikuri samsaxurebi
sxvadasxva qveyanaSi, centralizebuli da decentralizebuli statistikuri formebi.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis istoriuli warmoSoba
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistika, rogorc mecnierebis dargi
warmoiSva Zvel droSi calkeuli saxelmwifoebis praqtikuli
saWiroebidan gamomdinare.
Tavdapirvelad es gaxldaT Setevis ganxorcielebamde mowinaaRmdegis
samxedro simZlavris Sefasebisa da kontribuciis1 dasaweseblad
saxelmwifos simdidris gansazRvris aucilebloba.
Semdgom, vaWrobis ganviTarebasTan erTad, gaCnda moTxovna sxva
informacize, e.i. saxelmwifos aRweris. magram msgavs monacemebs hqonda
wminda aRwerilobiTi statistikis saxe, cifrobrivi informaciis
gamoyenebis gareSe. erT-erTi amdagvari cnobili samuSao ekuTvnis
aristoteles, romelmac aRwera Tavisi drois 157 qalaqi da
saxelmwifoebi.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis, rogorc damoukidebeli
dargis formireba moxda XIX saukunis Sua xanebSi. misi warmoSoba da
ganviTareba mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli or skolasTan: germanul
aRwerilobiT skolasTan da politikuri ariTmetikosebis inglisur
skolasTan.
germanuli aRwerilobiTi statistikis, an saxelmwifomcodneobis
warmomadgenli iyo germaneli mecnieri g. axenvali, romelmac 1749w.
1 kontribucia laTinuri sityvaa da niSnavs iZulebiT gadasaxdels, an qonebis amoRebas
omSi damarcxebuli saxelmwifosagan.
18
gamosca wigni saxemwifomcodneobaze. aRwerilobiTi statistikis
ZiriTadi Tavisebureba mdgomarebda imasSi, rom xdeboda aRwerilobiT-
informaciuli masalis mopoveba, romelic SemdgomSi TiTqmis ar
analizdeboda. germanulma aRwerilobiTma skolam iarseba 150 welze
meti, Tumca am mecnierebis sagani da meTodi ar iyo gansazRvruli.
politikuri ariTmetikosebis inglisuri skola gaCnda 100 wliT adre
vidre germanuli skola. misi warmomadgeneli iyo u. peti. is
sazogadoebriv movlenebs ganixilavda raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT,
gamoxatavda maT ricxvebiT, woniT, zomiT. man 1683w. gamosca wigni
„politikuri ariTmetika“, romelSic motanili iyo monacemebi inglisis
erovnul Semosavalze, monacemebi safrangeTisa da holandiis
mosaxleobaze.
politikuri ariTmetikosebis skolam safuZveli Cauyara masobrivi
monacemebis raodenobriv Seswavlas. am skolis warmomadgenlebi
cdilobdnen cifrebiT daexasiaTebinaT sazogadoebis mdgomareoba da
ganviTareba, faqtebis ganzogadebisa da analizis safuZvelze eCvenebinaT
sazogadoebrivi movlenebis ganviTarebis kanonzomierebebi.
Semdgomi ganviTareba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikam miiRo
iseTi misi formebis meSveobiT, rogoricaa saerTaSoriso statistikuri
instituti, saerTaSoriso kongresebi, erTa ligis organoebi.
saerTaSoriso statistikuri instituti
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli
roli ekuTvnis saerTaSoriso statistikur instituts (ssi).
ssi _ sazogadoebrivi organizacia Seiqmna 1885w. Stab-bina imyofeba
haagaSi. es wminda samecniero organizaciaa, romelic aerTianebs
msoflios sxvadasxva qveynis wamyvan mecnierebs statistikis dargSi.
ssi samecniero saqmianoba mimarTulia Semdeg problemebze:
xalxTmosaxleoba;
19
produqciis xarisxis statistikuri meTodebi;
samuSao Zalis statistika;
codnis sxvadasxva dargSi maTematikuri statistikis gamoyeneba.
ssi-is sesiebi tardeba regularulad yovel or wels, sadac xdeba
samecniero da praqtikuli statistikis rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba.
institutis SemuSavebebi ganixileba saerTaSoriso statistikuri
organizaciebis mier da atareben sarekomendacio xasiaTs.
1990 wlidan ssi atarebs specialur konferenciebs saerTaSoriso
statistikis sxvadsxva problemebze (misi saimedobis, droulobis
sizustis). bolo wlebSi ssi axorcielebs statistikuri samsaxuris
xelmZRvanelebisaTvis seminarebis organizebas. pirveli aseTi seminari
Catarda 1966wels evropeli statistikosebisaTvis. masze ganixileboda
niderlandebis statistikis biuros gamocdileba.
Tanamedrove etapze ssi-is saqmianoba mimarTulia Semdeg problemebze:
statistikuri ganaTleba (amisaTvis ssi-s gaaCnia saswavlo centrebi
kalkutaSi, bobeiSi, beiruTSi, CineTSi, sadac xdeba aziisa da
afrikis qveynebis statistikosebis gadamzadeba.
sxvadasxva dargSi gamoyenebiTi statistikis gamoyeneba.
ssi regularulad gamoscems „saerTaSoriso statistikis mimoxilvas“,
„msoflios didi qalaqebis weliwdleuls“.
saerTaSoriso statistikiuri kongresebi da maTi roli
saerTaSoriso statistikis ganviTarebaSi
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis (ssk) iniciatori iyo a. ketle.
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis mowveva xdeboda 23 wlis
ganmavlobaSi. I-li kongresi Sedga 1853w briuselSi, II- 1855w parizSi, III-
1863w. venaSi, IV- 1860w. londonSi, V- 1863w. berlinSi, VI-1867w.
florenciaSi, VII-1869w. haagaSi, VIII-1872w. peterburgSi da IX-1876w.
budapeStSi.
20
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis programebSi figurirebda
statistikis sxvadasxva sakiTxebi: socialuri statistika; demografiuli
statistika. calkeul kongresebze ganixileboda meTodologiuri
sakiTxebi. magaliTad, peterburgSi VIII kongrersze ganixileboda
cxriluri da grafikuli meTodebis roli da mniSvneloba. aRwerebis
Catarebis da Sedegebis damuSavebis mecnieruli dasabuTeba iyo
mocemuli jer briuselSi I kongrersze, Semdeg peterburgSi VIII
kongrersze.
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis muSaobis Sedegad moxda
mecnieruli da praqtikuli statistikis Serwyma, gaizarda gamocemis
ricxvi, gaumjobesda statistikuri dawesebulebebis mowyoba, daiwyo
statistikuri informaciis gacvla regularul safuZvelze.
saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da maTi statistikuri samsaxurebi
saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli
roli ekuTvnis saerTaSoriso organizaciebs da maT statistikur
samsaxurebs. swored maTi saqminobis intensiurobiT SesaZlebeli gaxda
saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis, rigi mniSvnelovani
mimarTulebiT, erovnuli statistikebis miRwevebisagan CamorCenis
likvidireba. A
aRsaniSnavi, iseTi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis statistikuri
samsaxurebis roli, rogoricaa gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia
(gaero, UN), saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi (IMF), Sromis saerTaSoriso
organizacia (ILO), janmrTelobis dacvis msoflio organizacia (WHO),
rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso banki (IBRD), gaero-s
ganaTlebis, mecnierebisa da kulturis organizacia (UNESCO), gaero-s
industrialuri ganviTarebis organizacia (UNIDO), gaero-s sasursaTo da
sasoflo-sameurneo organizacia (FAO), msoflio savaWro organizacia
(WTO).
21
am organizaciebma arsebiTi wvlili Seitanes saerTaSoriso
urTieTobebis statistikis maCvenebelTa SemuSavebaSi, am maCveneblebis
gaangariSebis meTodikis srulyofasa da saerTaSoriso doneze
Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofaSi.
gaero Seiqmna 1945w. qveynebs Soris TanamSromlobis ganviTarebis,
mSvidobis mxardaWerisa da ganmtkicebis mizniT. misi Stab-bina imyofeba
niu-iorkSi, xolo evropis ganyofileba venaSi da JenevaSi.
gaero-Si funqcionirebs ori statistikuri organo: gaero-is
statistikuri komisia da gaero-is samdivnos statistikuri biuro.
statistikuri komisia dafuZnda 1946wels gaero socialuri da
ekonomikuri sabWos pirvel sesiaze. komisiis mizani gaxldaT
statistikis dargSi yvela saerTaSoriso rekomendaciis momzadeba.
gaero-is statistikuri komisiis SeqmnasTan erTad organizebuli iqna
gaero-is regionaluri komisiebi, xolo am komisiebTan – statistikosebis
regionaluri konferenciebi evropisaTvis, laTinuri amerikisaTvis,
afrikisaTvis da sxv. regionaluri komisiis samdivnoSi Seiqmna
statistikuri ganyofilebebi, regionis pirobebTan gamoyenebiT,
saerTaSoriso standartebis danergvis xelSewyobis mizniT.
gaero-is statistikur komisiasTan Seqmnilia eqvsi miznobrivi
qvedanayofisgan Semdgari samuSao jgufi. es qvedanayofebi dakavebuli
arian Semdegi problemebiT:
erovnuli angariSgeba;
mrewvelobis statistika;
saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika;
finansebis statistika;
fasebis statistika;
garemos dacvis statistika.
isini moipoveben da amuSaveben informacias, avrceleben maCvenebelTa
gaangariSebis meTodologias, amzadeben kadrebs.
22
gaero-is samdivnos statistikuri biuro kordinirebas uwevs da
mimarTulebas aZlevs gaero-is yvela qvedanayofis saqmianobas
statistikis dargSi, axorcielebs mimdinare samuSaos gaero-s
saerTaSoriso statistikis dargSi. is asrulebs Semdeg funqciebs:
statistikur monacemTa mopoveba, damuSaveba da publikacia;
masalebis momzadeba sesiaze gansaxilvelad;
sxvadasxva qveynis monacemebis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofa;
sxvadasxva qveynisTvis daxmarebis gaweva statistikis dargSi;
gaero-os statistikuri organoebisa da sxva saerTaSoriso
organizaciebis qmedebis koordinacia.
gaero gamoscems Semdeg publikaciebs:
weliwdleuli erovnuli angariSianobis statistikaSi (gamoicema
1956 wlidan);
demografiuli weliwdleuli gamodis gaero-is statistikuri
komisiis Sveicariul ganyofilebaSi)
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi (IMF) Seiqmna 1944 wels breton-vudsis
saerTaSoriso savaluto-finansuri konferenciis gadawyvetilebiT. is
umsxvilesi saerTaSoriso organizaciaa, romelic aregulirebs savaluto
urTierTobebs wevr-saxelmwifoebTan da gamouyofs maT kredits.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis kapitali iqmneba wevr-qveynebis
Senatanebisagan TiToeuli qveynisTvis dadgenili kvotebis Sesabamisad,
romelic ganisazrvreba qveqnis ekonomikuri potencialisa da msoflio
vaWrobaSi misi rolis gaTvaliswinebiT.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis Stab-bina imyofeba voSingtonSi.
xelmZRvaneli organoa _ mmarTvelTa sabWo, xolo aRmasrulebeli –
direqtoriati.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi xels uwyobs saerTaSoriso savaluto-
finansuri operaciebis ganviTarebas.
23
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis statistika gamodis sagadamxdelo
balansisa da finansuri maCveneblebis agebis meTodologiis
kanonmdeblad.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis ZiriTad publikaciebs miekuTvneba
„sagadamxdelo balansis weliwdleuli“ da „saerTaSoriso safinanso
statistika“_ yovelTviuri gamocema, romelSic aisaxeba valutis kursi,
saerTaSoriso savaluto likvidoba, sabanko sistemis saqmianobis
maCveneblebi, fuladi masis maCveneblebi, sicocxlis dazRvevis finansuri
maCveneblebi, saprocento ganakveTebi, aqciebis fasebis indeqsebi, savaWro
da sagadamxdelo balansis maCveneblebi.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia, Seiqmna 1919 wels erTa ligis
CarCoebSi versalis xelSekrulebis safuZvelze. 1946 wlidan Sromis
saerTaSoriso organizacia moqmedebs gaero-is egidis qveS. Stab-bina
imyofeba JenevaSi. misi ZiriTadi samuSao organo aris Sromis
saerTaSoriso biuro.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis ZiriTadi amocanebia:
umuSevrobasTan brZola;
samuSao drois reglamentacia;
xelfasiis garantiis SemuSaveba, romelic uzrunvelyofis
cxovrebis normalur pirobebs;
sawarmoebSi ubeduri SemTxvevebisa da profesiuli daavadebisagan
dacva;
momuSave qalebis, mozardebisa da bavSvebis dacva.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis statistikuri saqmianoba
Tavmoyrilia statistikis biuroSi, romlis CarCoebSi moqmedebs Semdegi
ganyofilebebi:
xelfasis;
Sromis mwarmoeblurobisa da samuSao drois;
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebis;
saojaxo biujetebis;
24
saorganizacio sakiTxebisa da publikaciebis.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis egidiT 1923 wlidan regularulad
tardeba Sromis statistikosebis saerTaSoriso konferencia. am
konferenciebze ganixileba xelfasis, dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis,
profesiebis klasifikaciis sakiTxebi.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia gamoscems Semdeg publikaciebs:
Sromis statistikur weliwdleuls (1935 wlidan);
statistikis biuletens Sromaze _ yovelkvartaluri gamocema (1992
wlidan);
yovelTviuri Jurnali Sromis sakiTxebze.
jandacvis saerTaSoriso organizacia (WHO) xels uwyobs
msoflios qveynebSi jandacvis ganviTarebas. am organizaciis
statistikuri biuro axorcielebs mimdinare statistikas Sobadobis,
saerTo da bavSvTa sikvdilianobis, cxovrebis mosalodneli
xangrZlivobis dargSi.
jandacvis statistikis ganyofilebaSi Sedis oTxi qveganyofileba:
statistikuri publikaciebis;
meTodologiis;
daavadebaTa saerTaSoriso klasifikaciis;
statistikuri informaciis gavrcelebis.
ZiriTadi statistikuri gamocemebi:
moxseneba msoflio sanitarul statistikaze _ yovelTviuri
gamocema (sikvdilianoba, infeqciuri daavdebebiT daavadeba,
samedicino dawesebulebebiT uzrunvelyofadoba, daavadebebisa da
gardacvalebis mizezebi, xarjebi samedicino momsaxurebaze);
msoflio sanitaruli statistikis weliwdleuli.
msoflio banki (adre ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis banki)
25
dafuZnebulia 1944 wels. bankis wevri SeiZleba iyos mxolod is qveyana
romelic Sesulia msoflio savaluto fondSi.
rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso banki Seiqmna 1990 wels
42 qveynis mTavrobisa da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier,
axorcielebs operaciebs 1991 wlidan. Stab-bina mdebareobs londonSi.
Seqmnis mizani – cetraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis bazarze
gadasvlisas maTi sakredito mxardaWera. mas araoficialurad msoflio
banks uwodeben. is aris saerTaSoriso sakredito organizacia _ gaeros
specializebuli finansuri dawesebuleba, romlis ZiriTadi saqmianoba
mdgomareobs grZelvadiani kreditebis gacemaSi, SedarebiT dabali
ganakveTiT.
statistikuri samsaxurebis ZiriTadi amocanaa statistikuri informaciis
mopoveba. am mizniT banki yovelwliurad organizebas ukeTebs specialur
komisias ganviTarebad qveynebSi, informaciis uSualod adgilze miRebis
mizniT. Sedegad banki flobs sagareo davalianebis, kapitalis nakadebis,
valis dafarvis, sagadamxdelo balansebis monacemebs.
msoflio bankis statistikuri biuro yovelwliurad aqveynebs
informacias:
qveynebis finansur mdgomareobaze (biujetis Semosavlebi da
gasavlebi, biujetis deficiti (proficiti), valutebis kursi,
inflacia);
qveynebis saerTo ekonomikur mdgomareobaze (mSp, meS, dasaqmebulTa
da umuSevarTa ricxovnoba).
gaero-s ganaTlebis, mecnierebis da kulturis organizacia (UNESCO)
dafuZnda 1954 wels. Stab-bina mdebareobs parizSi. saqarTvelo gaxda
misi wevri 1992 wels.
ZiriTadi gamocemebi:
iuneskos statistikuri weliwdleuli;
ganaTlebis msoflo mimoxilva;
msoflio masobrivi informaciis saSualebebi.
26
iunesko-s statistikuri weliwdleuli iZleva saerTaSoriso masStabiT
ganaTlebis, kulturis da mecnierebis ganviTarebis doneze warmodgenis
miRebis saSualebas.
gaero-s industrialuri ganviTarebis organizacia (UNIDO). am
saerTaSoriso organizaciis mizania ganviTarebadi qveynebis samrewvelo
ganviTarebis waxaliseba da industrializaciis daCqareba.
iunido-s mTavari organoebia:
generaluri konferencia;
samrewvelo ganviTarebis sabWo;
mudmivi komiteti da samdivno.
Stab-bina mdebareobs avstriaSi (q. vena), dafuZnebulia 1966 wels, xolo
1986 wlidan aris gaero-s specializebuli dawesebuleba.
gaero-s sasursaTo da sasoflo-sameurneo organizacia (FAO) Seiqmna 1945
wels kvebekis konferenciaze, is agrZelebs saerTaSoriso agraruli
institutis saqmianobas. Mmisi ZiriTadi amocanaa soflis meurneobis da
satyeo meurneobis, TevzWeris saerTaSoriso standartebisa da
rekomendaciebis momzadeba. misi Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi. fao-s
umaRlesi organoa generaluri konferencia, romelic ikribeba weliwadSi
erTxel. sesiebs Soris periodSi organizaciis muSaobas xelmZRvanelobs
sabWo, romelic adgens msoflioSi soflis meurneobis mdgomareobis
mimoxilvebs, koordinacias uwevs samTavroboTaSoriso organizaciebis
muSaobas, sursaTisa da soflis meurneobis produqtebis warmoebis,
moxmarebisa da ganawilebis sakiTxebSi.
fao gamoscems Semdeg beWvdiT gamocemebs:
weliwdleuls warmoebis Sesaxeb;
weliwdleuls vaWrobis Sesaxeb;
yovelwliur momoxilvas ganoyierebis dargSi mdgomareobis
Sesaxeb.
27
msoflio savaWro organizacia (WTO) Seiqmna 1995 wels, saerTaSoriso
vaWrobis ganviTarebis waxalisebis mizniT, manamde saxelwodebiT
„generaluri SeTanxmeba tarifebisa da vaWrobis Sesaxeb“ (GATT) moqmedi
organizaciis bazaze. WTO wevr-qveynebi valdebuli arian vaWrobis
yvelaze xelsayreli reJimi SeTavazon am organizaciis danarCen wevrebs.
amasTan WTO-s wevr-qveynebis mTel teritoriaze daculia Tanabari
pirobebi saqonlisa da mosaxurebis yvela mwarmoeblisaTvis. saqarTvelo
gawevrianebulia WTO-Si 2000 wlidan.
saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi fasdaudebelia
erTa ligis mniSvneloba. is Seiqmna 1919 wels da arsebobda 1946 wlamde.
erTa ligasTan iyo Seqmnili statistikuri aparati, romlis damsaxureba
saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi mdgomareobs
SemdegSi:
saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis ganxorcieleba mudmiv safuZvelze;
mravali indeqsis gansazRvra (fasebis, cxovrebis Rirebulebis,
erovnuli Semosavlis, samrewvelo warmoebis);
warmoebis naturaluri maCveneblebis, mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da
Semadgenlobis, valutis kursis monacemebis regularuli
publikacia.
1919w. daiwyo yovelwliuri statistikuri Jurnalis gamocema, 1926w. _
erTa ligis statistikuri weliwdleulis, xolo 1933w. _ msoflio
mimoxilvis weliwdleuli.
Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso statistikis organizacia
amJamad globaluri statistikuri sistema warmodgenilia:
gaero-s statistikuri komisiiT;
gaero-s dargobrivis statistikuri qvedanayofebiT;
gaero-s specialuri dawesebulebebiT;
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis statistikuri samsaxurebiT;
28
regionaluri statistikuri organizaciebiT _ evrostati, DdsT-s
statistikis saxelmwifo komiteti.
CamoTvlili statistikuri samsaxurebis muSaobis Sedegebi qveqndeba maT
weliwdleulebSi da periodul gamocemebSi.
msoflio doneze yvelaze mniSvnelovani statistikuri organoa gaero-s
statistikuri komisia. is wyvets Semdeg amocanebs:
SeimuSavebs saerTaSoriso statistikur klasifikaciebs da
standartebs;
axdens erovnuli statistikuri standartebis transformirebas
Sesadaris maCveneblebSi;
pasuxismgebelia sxvadasxva qveynis statistikisa da aRricxvis
praqtikaSi saerTaSoriso standartebis danergvaze;
axorcielebs sxvadasxva qveyanaSi msoflio meTodologiis
gamoyenebis kontrols.
aRsaniSnavia, rom gaero-s saerTaSoriso standartebi atareben
sarekomendacio xasiaTs. es niSnavs imas, rom TiToeul qveyanas aqvs
ufleba gamoiyenos sakuTari erovnuli meTodebic da saerTaSoriso
standartebi. miuxedavad amisa gaero iTxovs sakuTari meTodebisa da
standartebis dacvas im statistikuri informaciasTan mimarTebiT,
romelsac qveynebi waradgenen publikaciisaTvis.
gaerTianebuli erebis oganizaciam 1993 wels samdivnoSi daafuZna
specialuri organo _ ekonomikuri da socialuri informaciisa da
gasatarebeli politikis analizis departamenti. departamenti iqca
socialur-ekonomikuri informaciis SemuSavebis centrad im politikis
Sedegebis analizis xelSewyobis mizniT, romelsac atareben gaero-s
saerTasoriso organizaciebi. am centrma gaaerTiana mopovebuli
socialuri, demografiuli, ekonomikuri informaciis, sagadamxdelo
balansis, garemos dacvis mdgomarebis monacemebis safuZvelze msoflio
ganviTarebis yvela funqcia. am samuSaoebis Sedegad yovelwliurad
mzaddeba gaeros msoflio socialur-ekonomikuri mimoxilva.
29
gaero-s saerTaSoriso organizaciebis saqmianobis sferos gafarToebam
gazarda mosapovebuli da dasamuSavebeli informaciis moculoba.
informaciis nakadebis damuSavebis Semsubuqebis mizniT Seqmnilia
saerTaSoriso gamoTvliTi centrebis qseli. pirvelma aseTma
gamoTvliTma centrma daiwyo funqcionireba gaero-s samdivnoSi niu-
iorkSi, Semdeg gaero-s evropul ganyofilebaSi JenevaSi, filialebiT
parizSi da romSi, monrealSi, voSingtonSi, venaSi da sxva regionebSi.
evrostati axorcielebs Teoriul da praqtikul saqmianobas evropuli
kavSiris socialur-ekonomikuri statistikis dargSi. is dakavebulia
statistikuri informaciis mopovebiT, damuSavebiT da publikaciiT,
axdens saerTaSoriso Sedarebebs, exmareba sxva qveynebs statistikuri
samsaxurebis mowesrigebaSi.
saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistika efuZneba erovnul statistikebs.
aRsaniSnavia, rom erovnuli statistikis organizacia sxvadsxva qveyanaSi
gansxvavebulia. gansakuTrebiT es exeba yofil socialistur qveynebs da
qveynebs sabazro ekonomikiT. gansxvaveba mdgomareobs imaSi, rom sabazro
ekonomikis qveynebSi:
saxelmwifo statistikis mier oficialuri statistikuri
monacemebis mopoveba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes organizaciebisa da
kerZo pirebis moTxovniT da xarjebiT;
arsebobs gamijnva informaciis mopovebiT dakavebul da
maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodikis SemuSavebiT dakavebul
samsaxurebs Soris;
informaciis mopovebiTa da damuSavebiT dakavebuli arian erTi
organizaciebi, xolo informaciis analiziT sxva organizaciebi
(samecniero kvleviTi instituti, saxelmwifo sagegmo komisiebi,
araoficialuri statistikuri organizaciebi).
statistikuri saqmianoba evrokavSiris wevr qveynebSi
evropuli integraciis procesSi statistikuri infomacia Rebulobs did
30
mniSvnelobas ara mxolod evropis calkeuli qveynebis mTavrobebisa da
organizaciebisaTvis, aramed evropuli firmebisa da calkeuli
moqalaqeebisaTvis. E
evrostati (evropis Tanamegobrobis statistikuri uwyeba) evropuli
komisiis erT-erTi mTavari organoa. misi amocana evrokavSiris maRali
xarisxis statistikuri monacemebiT uzrunvelyofaSi mdgomareobs.
evrostati asrulebs oTx ZiriTad funqcias:
pirveli, man unda uzrunvelyos evropuli oganizaciebi, da kerZod
komisia evrokavSiris CarCoebSi politikis dakvirvebisa da Sefasebis
gansaxorcileblad saWiro informasciiT.
meore, man unda warudginos statistikuri monacemebi mTlianad evropul
sazogadoebas, fimebs da sxva ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv
organizaciebs.
mesame, is pasuxismgebelia evropuli statistikuri sistemis SemuSavebaze,
romelic warmoadgens, evrokavSirze da evrokavSirisTvis Sesadarisi da
utuari statistikuri monacemebis uzrunvelmyofi stadartebis,
meTodebis da organizaciuli struqturebis sistemas.
meoTxe, evrostati monawileobs gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebisa da
ganviTarebadi qveynebis statistikuri sistemebis srulyofis samuSaoebSi.
sawarmoebze xarisxiani informaciis miRebis mniSvnelovani winapirobaa
sawarmos sruli da aqtualuri registris arseboba, romelic moicavs
monacemebs maTi ZiriTadi saqmianobis saxeobebze da zomaze, informacias
sawarmoebis misamrTebze.
registrebis SemoReba da gansakuTrebiT maTi aqtualizaciis nawili,
sakmaod rTuli amocanaa. ramdenadac arsebobs gansazRvruli garRveva
informaciis wardgenis momentsa da sawarmos saqmianobis Sewyvetis
31
moments Soris. Tumca evrokavSiris wevri bevri qveyana axali sawamoebis
registrirebisaTvis gamoiyenebs administraciul meTodebs.
kargi statistikuri registris Seqmna erTad-erTi efeqturi saSualebaa,
romelic uzrunvelyofs mrewvelobis TiToeuli dargis srul
statistikur mocvas. garda amisa is iZleva sawarmoebis sruli
dakvirvebisa da gamokiTxvebis nacvlad maTi mecnierulad dasabuTebuli
SerCeviTi gamokvlevis saSualebas. es ki sagrZnoblad amcirebs,
gamokvlevis blankebis SevsebasTan dakavSirebul, sawarmoebis saerTo
datvirTvas. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu registri harmonizirebulia evrokavSiris
wevr-qveynebis CarCoebSi, is sxva wyaroebTan SexamebiT SeiZleba
gamoyenebuli iqnes pirdapiri statistikuri wyaros saxiT. rasac zogierT
qveyanaSi ukve adgili aqvs.
Tanamedrove periodSi sawarmoebis statistikaSi mniSvnelovani gavlenis
mqone ek-s ZiriTad politikur mimarTulebebs ganekuTvnebian:
maxstrixis xelSekruleba, romelic iTvaliswinebs ekonomikuri da
savaluto politikis dargSi ufro mWidro evropul
TanamSromlobas. sawarmoebze statistikuri monacemebi saWiroa
evropuli firmebis saqmianobaze da konkurentunarianobaze
dakvirvebisaTvis;
1993 wlis TeTri dokumenti ekonomikur zrdaze,
konkurentunarianobasa da dasaqmebze, masSi CarTulia mesame
qveynebis mxridan umuSevrobis, konkurenunarianobis problemebis
gadasawyveti winadadebebi;
erTiani bazari. saqonlisa da mosaxureobis erTiani evropuli
bazris Seqmna, amasTan dakavSirebiT gaizarda gadamamuSavebeli
mrewvelobisa da momsaxurebis sferoebze mTlianad ek-s CarCoebSi
harmonizebuli statistikuri monacemebis miRebis aucilebloba.
mimdinareobs moZraoba diplomebisa da profesionalur
mobilobasTan mimarTebiT;
politika vaWrobis dargSi. urugvais raundis Sedegebze dakvirveba
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis dargSi;
32
energetikuli politika. mimarTulia sxvadasxva miznebis
gadawyvetaze, m.S. energomomaragebis usafrTxoebis, energiis
efeqtianobis, energiis gamoyenebis uaryofiT gavlenis Semcireba
garemoze, bazris gamWvirvalobis sakiTxebi;
regionaluri politika. evrokavSiris struqturul fonds sxva
regionebis mxardasaWerad marTavs komisia. sawarmos statistikis
monacemebis safuZvelze miiReba gadawyvetileba regionebisaTvis
saxsrebis gamoyofaze da am procesebze dasakvirveblad;
saSualo da mcire sawarmoebi. am dargSi gadawyvetilebebi miiReba,
rogorc ufro farTo samewarmeo politikis mniSvnelovani
elementi. maTze monacemebi moipoveba administraciuli da sxva
wyaroebidan.
politika samecniero-kvleviTi da sakonstruqcio-sacdeli
saqmianobis dargSi. samecniero-kvleviTi saqmianobis koordinacia
evrokavSiris CarCoebSi xorcirldeba samecniero-kvleviTi da
teqnikuri ganviTarebis programis meSveobiT. programa mimarTulia
iseTi dargebis ganviTarebaze, rogoricaa telematika, komunikaciis
sistemebi, informaciuli an sawarmoo teqnologiebi, garemos dacva,
bioteqnologia, transporti. am dargebSi saWiroa maRali xarisxis
statistikuri monacemebi kontrolisaTvis, SefasebisaTvis da a.S.,
xolo statistikisa da teqnikis urTierTkavSiri warmoadgens
kvlevis erT-erT dargs.
oficialuri da araoficialuri statistikuri samsaxurebi
sxvada sxva qveyanaSi, centralizebuli da decentralizebuli
statistikuri formebi
statistikur samuSaobas sxvdasxva qveyanaSi awarmoebs mravalricxovani
saxelmwifo da kerZo dawesebulebebi.
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi mniSvnelovani
roli ganekuTvneba erovnul statistikur samsaxurebs. es cneba moicavs
statistikuri samuSaoebiT dakavebul yvela samTavrobo organos,
romelTa monacemebi oficialuri statistikis safuZvelia.
33
araoficialur statistikaSi igulisxmeba sawarmoebis, kerZo samecniero
dawesebulebebis, savaWro-samrewvelo palatebis, partiebis,
gaerTianebebis, fondebis, profkavSirebis da a.S. statistikuri
informacia.
oficialuri (saxelmwifo) statistikis organizacia sazRvargareTis
qveynebSi reglamentirdeba statistikis Sesaxeb kanoniT. am kanonSi
gansazRvrulia statistikuri organoebis ZiriTadi valdebulebebi,
funqciebi, miznebi, uflebebi, da agreTve statistikis organizaciis
Taviseburebebi.
yoveli Casatarebuli statistikuri dakvirveba moiTxovs Sesabamisi
sakanonmdeblo safuZvlis gamoyenebas. statistikuri organoebis
saqmianobasTan dakavSirebiT saxelmwifos gaaCnia yvela sakanonmdeblo
uflebamosileba, magram SezRudulia administraciul uflebebSi. sxva
sityvebiT, mas ara aqvs statistikuri organoebis muSaobaSi Carevis
uflemamosileba: gaxsnas an daxuros informacia, moiTxovos monacemebi,
romelsac ar iTvaliswinebs statistikuri angariSgeba, sakadro
sakiTxebSi, specialistebis momzadebaSi, maTi Sromis anazRaurebaSi,
maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodikaSi Careva da a.S.
araoficialur statistikas, rogorc wesi, ara aqvs sakanonmdelo
safuZveli, amitom pasuxebi, gansxvavebiT saxelmwifo statistikuri
organoebisgan, organizaciebisa da kerZo pirebis moTxovnebze araris
savaldebulo.
sazRvargareTis yveynebis oficialur statistikas gaaCnia ori tipis
organizaciuli struqtura: cetralizebuli da decentralizebuli.
gaero-s eqspertebis ganmartebis Tanaxmad erovnuli statistikuri
samsaxuri iTvleba centralizebulad, Tu misi xelmZRvaneloba da
operaciebi, dakavSirebulia statistikur programebTan, aris upiratesad
erTiani, damoukidebeli samTavrobo dawesebulebis funqcia, romelsac
xelmZRvanelobs qveynis mTavari statistikosi.
34
erovnuli statistikuri samsaxuri iTvleba decentralizebulad, Tu
statistikuri programebis ganxorcielebiT da marTviT dakavebulia
ramdeneime samTavrobo organo. amdagvari struqturis dros romelime
calkeul dawesebulebas ekisreba pasuxismgebloba, sxvadasxva organoebis
statistikuri saqmianobis koordinacia. es makoordinirebeli organo,
Cveulebriv, SeimuSavebs statistikur standartebs, axorcielebs
kontrols dakvirvebis programebze, axorcielebs adgilebze muSaobis
organizacias, atarebs gamokvlevebs, iZleva konsultacias.
statistikis organizebis centralizebuli sistema Warbobs dasavleT
evropis qveynebSi da aseve kanadaSi. centralizirebuli tipi
damaxasiaTebelia aSS, iaponiasa da safrangeTisaTvis. Ddid britaneTSi
gamoiyeneba, decentralizaciisken gadaxrili, Sereuli sistema.
gaero-s eqspertebis SefasebiT statistikis centralizebul sistemas,
erTis mxriv, gaaCnia upiratesoba, ramdenadac iZleva adamianiseuli da
materialuri resursebis ufro efeqtiurad gamoyenebis saSualebas, erTi
da igive Temaze statistikuri gamokvlevevis Catarebisas gamoricxavs
dublirebas da xelsuwyobs erTiani gansazRvrebis, klasifikaciebisa da
standartebis SemoRebas, e.i. xelsuwyobs meTodologiur erTgvarovnobas.
meores mxriv, decentralizebuli sistema, ufro mobiluria, Tavisufalia
movlenis yovelmxrivi Seswavlisagan, maCvenebelTa da monacemTa
damuSavebis xerxebis Ziebisgan.
aSS-is saxelmwifo statistika decentralizebulia. statistikuri
monacemebis SegrovebiT, damuSavebiTa da publikaciiT dakavebulia 70-ze
meti saministro da uwyeba, agreTve 400 kerZo organizacia, maT Soris:
1. ekonomikuri analizis biuro (vaWrobis saministro);
2. cenzebis biuro (vaWrobis saministro);
3. marTlmsajulebis statistikis biuro (iusticiis saministro);
4. Sromis statistikis biuro (Sromis saministro);
5. satransporto statistikis biuro (transportis saministro);
6. ekonomikuri gamokvlevebis samsaxuri (soflis meurneobis
saministro);
35
7. ganaTlebis statistikis erovnuli centri (ganaTlebis saministro);
8. janmrTelobis statistikis erovnuli centri (janmrTlobis
saministro);
9. sagadasaxado sammarTvelos Semosavlebis statistikis ganyofileba
(finansTa saministro).
statistikuri samsaxurebis centralur organod iTvleba vaWrobis
saministro, romelic Sromis saministrosTan erTad agrovebs da
ganazogadebs umniSnelovanes saerTo erovnul informacias.
statistikuri saqmianobis saerTo goordinacias axorcielebs
prezidentis administraciis sainformacio da normatiuli sakiTxebis
administraciul-sabiujeto sammarTvelos mecnierebisa da statistikis
danayofi. Mmisi xelmZRvaneli iTvleba qveynis mTavar statistikosad.
didi britaneTis statistikuri samsaxuri funqcionirebs 1941 wlidan
centraluri statistikuri sammarTvelos saxiT. centraluri
statistikuri sammarTvelo warmoadgens samTavrobo dawesebulebas,
romelic Seqmnilia qveynis ministrTa kabinetTan da emorCileba premier-
ministrs. amJamad misi oficialuri organoa erovnuli statistikis
sammarTvelo erovnuli samTavrobo organizaciis statusiT. am
organizaciis direqtori iwodeba erovnul statistikosad. Mmocemuli
organizacia axorcielebs saerTo meTodologiur saqmianobas, atarebs
umniSvnelovanes statistikur gamokvlevebs da azogadebs teritoriuli
satistikuri organoebis, saministroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri
danayofebisa da aseve firmebis informacias. erovnuli statistikis
sammarTvelo axorcielebs Segrovebuli informaciis utyuarobis
Semowmebas, amuSavebs erovnul angariSebs. mis gansakuTrebul amocanas
warmoadgens mTeli britanuli Tanamegobrobis statistikis organizeba
da maTTvis statistikosebis momzadeba.
germaniis statistikuri samsaxuri funqcionirebs 1872 wlidan. aqvs
federaluri mowyobis, qalaqebisa da municipalitetebis statistikuri
organoebis, agreTve saministroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri
samsaxurebis qseli. maTi funqciebi da urTierTdamokidebuleba
36
gansazRvrulia kanoniT federaluri statistikis Sesaxeb. yvela
statistikuri organos praqtikul saqmianobas xelmZrvanelobs
federaluri statistikis sabWo, romlis SemadgenlobaSi Sedian
statistikur informaciaze momxmareblebis (saministroebis, uwyebebis,
mewarmeTa gaerTianebebis da a.S.) warmomadgenlebi da statistikuri
gamokvlevebis Semsruleblebi (federaluri statistikuri sammarTvelos
xelmZRvanelebi). federaluri statistikis sabWo ikribeba weliwadSi
erTxel da ixilavs Sesasrulebel satatistikur samuSaoebs.
safrangeTSi saxelmwifo statistikur samsaxurs 1946 wlidan
xelmZRvanelobs statistikisa da ekonomikuri gamokvlevebis instituti.
is axorcielebs regularul kvlevebs da adgens qveynis ganviTarebis
maxasiaTebel maCveneblebs. instituti atarebs saerTo erovnul
gamokvlevebs (mosaxleobis arwerebs, yveynis ekonomikuri dargebis
kvlevebs da a.S.). koordinirebas uwevs saministroebisa da uwyebebis
statistikur samsaxurebs, saministroebidan, uwyebebidan da vaWrobis
sferoSi moRvawe komerciuli sawarmoebidan miRebuli informaciis
damuSavebiT awarmoebs makroekonomikur maCveneblebs, amzadebs kadrebs
saminisroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri samsaxurebisaTvis. institutSi
1951 wlidan funqcionirebs statistikuri gamokvlevebis koordinirebis
komiteti. mis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis qveynis ZiriTadi statistikuri
samsaxurebis warmomadgenlebi. mocemuli komiteti adgens statistikuri
gamokvlevebis yovelwliur programas, romlebSic seriozuli yuradReba
eTmoba SerCeviTi statistikuri gamokvlevebis damuSavebasa da danergvis
praqtikas, agreTve biznes-registris aqtualizaciis sakiTxebs.
leqcia 3. klasifikaciebi da dajgufebani saerTaSoriso
statistikaSi
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. dajgufebebi da klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi 2. gaeros Tanamedrove klasifikatorebi 3. ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikacia 4. dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia 5. profesiaTa tipebis saerTaSoriso klsifikatori
37
6. saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo klasifikaciebi.
dajgufebebi da klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
saerTaSoriso statistika asaxavs ekonomikur saqmianobas uzarmazari
raodenobis socialur-ekonomikuri informaciis meSveobiT. misi
Tanamedrove damuSaveba da analizi SeuZlebelia socilur-ekonomikuri
dajgufebebisa da klasifikaciebis gamoyenebis gareSe.
ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi warmoadgenen romelime niSnis mixedviT
obieqtebis erTobliobis erTgvarovan jgufebad ganawilebis logikur
xerxs.
dajgufebebi xorcieldeba statistikis mecnierebis mier SemuSavebuli
gansazRvruli principebis, wesebis, xerxebis da meTodebis safuZvelze.
kasifikaciebisagan gansxvavebiT isini atareben Tavisufal xasiaTs.
ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi aseve dajgufebebia, magram maT SeimuSavebs
statistikuri organoebi da saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da standartis
saxiTaa rekomendirebuli. aseT klasifikaciebs uwodeben saerTaSoriso
ekonomikur klasifikaciebs (sek).
saerTaSoriso ekonomikur klasifikaciebs didi mniSvneloba aqvs
saxelmwifoebis ekonomikis ganviTarebaze statistikuri informaciis
sistematizirebisaTvis. saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi
erTaderTi winapirobaa sxvadasxva qveynis statistikuri dakvirvebis
Sedegebis Sesadarisobis misaRwevad.
saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebis Seqmnis pirveli cdebi
miekuTvneba me 19-e saukunis Sua periods. amJamad maTi SemuSaveba xdeba
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier standartuli klasifikaciebisa da
nomenklaturebis formiT. klasifikaciebs safuZvlad udevs qveynebs
Soris SeTanxmebuli zogadi meTodologiuri principebi.
38
saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikis
safuZvelia. dargebis, saqonlis, profesiis da saqmianobis standartulma
klasifikaciebma praqtikuli mniSvneloba miiRo mxolod meore msoflio
omis Semdeg. manamde gamoiyeneboda daqsaqsuli klasifikaciebis mravali
varianti, romelTa nawili arasakmarisad dasabuTebuli an saerTod
dausabuTebeli iyo. rac did sirTuleebs qmnida monacemTa
ganzogadebisa da maTi qveynebis mixedviT Sesadarisobis kuTxiT.
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kalasifikaciebi igeba ori xerxiT:
ierarqiuli da faseturiT.
ierarqiuli xerxiT kalasifikaciisas mTliani erToblioba Tavidan
iyofa romelime erTi niSnis mixedviT msxvil jgufebze. Semdgom es
jgufebi iyofa ufro patara jgufebad. Sedegad dgindeba ierarqia. Ee.i.
patara jgufebis yvela niSnis saerTo dajgufebisTvis
daqvemebarebuloba. amdagvari klasifikaciis magaliTia ekonomikuri
saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi
klasifikacia. ierarqiuli klasifikaciebis agebisas yvelaze rTuli
sakiTxia im niSanTa sistemis dadgena, romelic safuZvlad edeba
erTobliobis jgufebad dayofas.
faseturi xerxiT kalasifikaciisas mTliani erToblioba nawildeba
mrval erTmaneTze damoukidebel jgufad. amdagvari klasifikaciis
magaliTia mosaxleobaze iformaciis klasifikatori. am klasifikatorSi
mTeli mosaxleoba nawildeba jgufebad sqesis, asakis, moqalaqeobis
erovnebis da sxva niSnis mixedviT. faseturi kalasifikaciis
maxaiaTebeli Taviseburebaa misi agebis struqturis drekadoba. cvlileba
erT fasetaSi ar axdens arsebiT gavlenas danarCen fasetebze,
ramdenadac mravali obieqtis aRwera xdeba niSanTa CamonaTvaliT,
romelTac axasiaTebs erTmaneTTan mkacri urTierTkavSiri.
fasetur da ierarqiul klasifikatorSi TiToeul infomacias mieniWeba
cifrobrivi da anbanuri kodi.
39
saerTaSoriso klasifikaciebis SemuSavebaSi didia wvlili
gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis.
gaero-s mier SemuSavebulia Semdegi klasifikaciebi:
1. dargobrivi klasifikacia;
2. seqtoruli klasifikacia;
3. samTavrobo xarjebis klasifikacia;
4. arakomerciuli organizaciebis klasifikacia;
5. ZiriTadi produqtebis (saqoneli da momsaxureba) klasifikacia;
6. ekonomikuri operaciebis klasifikacia;
7. qonebis klasifikacia.
gaeros Tanamedrove klasifikatorebi
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi garda klasifikaciisa aseve gamoiyeneba
klasifikatorebi. klasifikatori aris obieqtebis sistematizirebuli
CamonaTvali, romelSic TiToeuls eniWeba kodi.
amJamad moqmedebs Semdegi klasifikatorebi:
1. msoflios qveynebis klasifkatori;
2. ekonomikuri regionebis klasifikatori;
3. administraciul-teritoriuli danawilebis klasifkatori;
4. mosaxleobaze informaciis klasifkatori;
5. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis funqciebis klasifkatori;
6. organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis klasifkatori;
7. valutebis klasifkatori;
8. mmarTvelobiTi dokumentaciis klasifkatori;
9. zomis erTeulebis klasifkatori.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso
standartuli dargobrivi klasifikacia
sawarmoo-teqnikuri niSnis mixedviT, sameurneo subieqtebi Seiswavleba
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikaciiT. es klasifikacia pirvelad miRebuli iqna 1948
40
wels. droTa ganmavlobaSi sawarmoo erTeulebis ekonomikuri saqmianobis
organizacia icvleba, aRmocendeba saqmianobis axali saxeobebi, Aamitom
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis Sesabamisad klasificirebul
monacemTa analizisadmi xdeba axali moTxovnebis wayeneba. Yyovelive amis
gaTvaliswinebiT gaero-s statistikurma komisiam arerTxel gadaxeda es
klasifikcia. Mam klasifikatoris mesame varianti SemuSavebulia
ganviTarebis sxvadasxva doneze da sxvadasxva ekonomikuri sistemis
qveynebis dargobriv klasifikaciaSi dagrovili gamocdilebis
gaTvaliswinebiT.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikacia uzrunvelyofs msoflios sxvadasxva qveynis
saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobas da akmayofilebs analizur moTxovnebs. is
aris baza warmoebaze, warmoebis faqtorebze da sxva statistikuri
monacemebis analizisaTvis.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikacia gamoyofs Semdeg saklasifikacio erTeulebs:
sawarmo;
saqmianobis saxeobis erTeuli;
adgilobrivi erTeuli;
dawesebuleba.
sawarmo aris yvelaze msxvili ekonomikuri erTeuli, romelic moicavs
sawarmoo saqmianobis srul process. es erTeuli avtonomiuria sawarmoo
da finansuri gadawyvetilebis nawilSi, magram aucilebeli araris iyos
erTgvarovani adgilmdebareobisa da saqmianobis saxeobebis niSniT.
erTeuli, erTgvarovani Tavisi saqmianobis mixedviT, Tavisi
adgilmdebareobis geografiuli raionisadmi miukuTvneblad iwodeba
saqmianobis saxeobis erTeulad.
erTeuli, erTgvarovani Tavisi adgilmdebareobis mixedviT iwodeba
adgilobriv erTeulad.
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dawesebuleba esaa sawarmoo erTeuli, romelic Sedgeba sawarmosagan an
sawarmos nawilisagan, romelic dakavebulia saqmianobis erTi saxeobiT
erT adgilas. e.i. es erTeuli erTgvarovania ekonomikuri saqmianobisa da
Tavisi adgilmdebareobis kriteriumiT.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikacia, yuvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi saerTaSoriso
klasifikaciaa. am klasofokacias gamoiyenebs gaero, Sromis
saerTaSoriso organizacia, fao, iunesko, jandacvis saerTaSoriso
organizacia da sxva saerTaSoriso da erovnuli organizaciebi.
is iZleva warmoebis moculobis, fasebis, warmoebis danaxarjebis,
mosaxleobis dasaqmebis, ZiriTadi kapitalis da finansuri aqtivebis
Sedarebis saSualebas.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso dargobriv
klasifikaciebs safuZvlad udevs Semdegi niSnebi:
warmoebis teqnologiis erTianoba;
gamoyenebuli nedleulis erTgvarovneba.
saklasifikacio erTeulebia: sawarmo, organizacia, dawesebuleba,
romelTac aqvT damoukidebeli balansi, da gaaCniaT mmarTvelobis
sakuTari organoebi, romelTac SeuZliaT damoukidebeli
gadawyvetilebis miReba.
saerTaSoriso dargobriv klasifikaciebs aqvT ierarqiuli struqtura. is
agebulia mravaldonianobis safufuZvelze, rac ganpirobebulia
sxvadasxva qveyanaSi warmoebis organizaciisa da Sromis danawilebis
doneebSi gansxvavebiT. mis SemadgenlobaSi gamoiyofa dargobrivi
klasifikaciebis oTxi done:
saqmianobis saxeobis ganyofilebebi;
saqmianobis saxeobis qveganyofilebebi;
saqmianobis saxeobis jgufebi;
42
saqmianobis saxeobis klasebi.
ganyofilebebi warmoadgenen ekonomikis gamsxvilebul dargebs.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli
dargobrivi klasifikacia moicavs 17 ganyofilebas, aRniSnuls laTinuri
alfabitis mTavruli asoebiT.
A. soflis meurneoba, satyeo meurneoba da nadiroba.
B. meTevzeoba.
C. samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba.
D. damamuSavebeli mrewveloba.
E. eleqtroenergia, gazi da wyalmomarageba.
F. mSenebloba.
G. sabiTumo da sacalo vaWroba, avtomobilebis, motocikletebis,
sayofacxovrebo saqonlisa da piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti.
H. sastumroebi da restornebi.
I. transporti, kavSirgabmuloba da sasawyobo meurneoba.
J. finansuri Suamavloba. operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, arenda da
komerciuli saqmianoba.
K. saxelmwifo mmarTveloba da Tavdacva, savaldebulo socialuri
dazRveva.
L. ganaTleba.
M. janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri momsaxureba.
N. sxva komunaluri, socialuri da personaluri momsaxureba.
O. kerZo Sinameurneobebi daqiravebuli personaliT.
P. eqsteritoriuli organizaciebi da organoebi.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartul
dargobriv klasifikaciaSi dargi ganisazRvreba, rogorc
dawesebulebaTa erToblioba, e.i. sawarmoebi an sawarmoebis qveganayofebi,
romlebic ganlagebulia erT adgilas, dakavebuli arian sawarmoo
saqmianobis erTi saxeobiT, an ZiriTad saqmianobaze modis damatebuli
Rirebulebis didi nawili.
dargobrivi klasifikaciis meore done qveganayofebia. TiToeuli
ganyofileba Sedgeba erTi an ramodenime qveganayofisagan.
43
magaliTad ganyofilebebi ,,mSenebloba“, ,,ganaTleba“ Sedgeba mxolod
erTi qveganayofisagan. qveganayofebis Seqmnas safuZvlad udevs sameurneo
erTeulebis saqmianobis yvelaze tipuri Taviseburebebi. am
Taviseburebebs miekuTvnebian: warmoebili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
xasiaTi (produqciis fizikuri Semadgenloba, warmoebis stadiebi da
produqciiT dasakmayofilebeli moTxovnebi); saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
daniSnuleba (Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis, gamoyenebisaTvis da
dagrovebisaTvis gankuTvnili saqoneli da momsaxureba); gamoyenebuli
nedleulis nairsaxeba da misi gadamuSavebis xerxebi.
qveganayofebi orniSna kategoriebia. ase magaliTad, ganyofileba ,,soflis
meurneoba, nadiroba da metyeiba“ moicavs Semdeg gveganayofebs: 01
,,soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“;
02 ,,metyeoba, tyis damzadeba da maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“.
yoveli qveganayofi Sedgeba saqmianobis saxeobis jgufebisagan. es
dargobrivi klasifikaciis mesame donea, romelic warmodgenilia samniSna
kategoriebiT. saqmianobis TiToeul jgufSi Sedis saqmianobis metad
erTgvarovani saxeobebi. ase magaliTad, ,,soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da
maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“ qveganayofis SemadgenlobaSi
gamoyofilia saqmianobis Semdegi saxeobebi: 011 mebaReoba, kulturebis
moyvana, mebostneoba, 012 mecxoveleoba da a.S.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartul
dargobriv klasifikaciaSi meoTxe done warmodgenilia saqmianobis
saxeobebis klasebiT. isini miiReba saqmianobis saxeobebis jgufebis
dayofiT, amitom isini mocemuli klasifikaciis yvelaze erTgvarovani
kategoriebia. klasebis koduri aRniSvnis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis mesame
donis Sesabamis kodebs damatebuli meoTxe niSani. magaliTad,
saklasifikacio jgufSi 011 mebaReoba, kulturebis moyvana, mebostneoba
gamoiyofa Semdegi klasebi: 0111 marcvleulebisa da danarCen
kategoriebSi arSesuli sxva kulturebis moyvana, 0112 ,,bostneulis
moyvana, specialuri mebaReoba da sanerge produqciis warmoeba“, 0113
44
,,sasmelebisa da sunel-sanelebelis warmoebisaTvis xilis, Txilis,
kulturebis moyvana“.
saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi klasifikacia warmoadgens
saqmianobis saxeobis klasifikacias da ara dargebis an saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis klasifikacias. masSi araa gaTvaliswinebuli sakuTrebis
formaSi, iuridiul statussa an saqmianobis xasiaTSi gansxvavebebi.
saqmianobis erTi da igive saxeobiT dakavebuli erTeulebi CairTvebian
saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi klasifikaciis erTi da igive
kategoriaSi, miuxedavad imisa arian isini aqcioneruli kompaniebi, kerZo
mesakuTreebi an saxelmwifo dawesebulebebi. garda amisa ar xdeba
gancalkaveba oficialur da araoficialur warmoebas Soris.
dargobrivi klasifikaciis meSveobiT Seiswavleba:
ekonomikis dargobrivi struqtura;
sawarmoo Zalebis ganviTarebis done;
Sromis sazogadoebrivi danawilebis ganviTarebis done;
sazogadoebrivi warmoebis efeqtianoba;
ekonomikis ganviTarebis socialur-ekonomikuri kompleqsuroba.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis dargobrivi klasifikacia safuZvlad
udevs mTlianad statistikuri masalis Tavmoyras: sawarmos, samuSao
Zalis, ZiriTadi fondebis, warmoebuli produqciis da a.S.
dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia.
mosaxleobis dasaqmebaze monacemTa sitematizirebisaTvis mniSvnelovan
rols asrulebs Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier miRebuli
dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia. am klasifikaciis
pirveli versia iyo miRebuli 1958 wels Sromis statistikosTa XIII
saerTaSoriso konferenciaze, meore versia _ 1988 wels Sromis
statistikosTa XIV saerTaSoriso konferenciaze da mesame versia _ XV
saerTaSoriso konferenciaze 1993 wels.
45
dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikaciis mTavari
saklasifikacio niSania saqmianobis ama Tu im saxeobisTvis mikuTvneba:
administraciuli da mmarTvelobiTi personali;
Tavisufali profesiis pirebi;
teqnikuri da maTTan gamWoli profesiis pirebi;
kancelariis mosamsaxureebi;
vaWrobaSi da momsaxurebis sferoSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;
soflis meurneobaSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;
xelosnebi da maTTan monaTesave specialobebi;
mrewvelobaSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;
zemoT CamoTvlil klasifikaciasSi ar Sesuli muSakebi;
samxedro mosamsaxureebi.
garda dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikaciisa
saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba 1993 wels Sromis
statistikosTa XV saerTaSoriso konferenciaze miRebuli dasaqmebis
statusis saerTaSoriso klasifikacia. mas safuZvlad udevs muSakTa
daqiravebis formis niSani. masSi gamoyofilia:
mewarmeebi (yavdeT Tundac erTi muSaki);
TviTdasaqmebuli mosaxleoba;
daqiravebuli muSakebi;
sawarmoo kooperativebis wevrebi;
ufasod damxmare ojaxis wevrebi;
muSakebi, romelTa saqmianoba ar eqvemdebareba klasifikacias.
mewarmeebi. maT miekuTvnebian muSakebi, romlebic muSaoben damoukideblad
erT an ramdenime kompanionTan, mudmivad qiraoben erT an ramdenime pirs
daqiravebuli muSakis saxiT. maT miekuTvnebian aseve arendatorebi,
romelTac ayavT daqiravebuli muSakebi.
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TviTdasaqmebuli mosaxleoba _ Tavis xarjze momuSave pirebi. am jgufs
miekuTvnebian, pirebi, romlebic muSaoben damoukideblad an kopanionTan
da ar iyvanen daqiravebul muSakebs mudmiv safuzvelze.
daqiravebuli muSakebi. pirebi, romlebmac dades SromiTi xelSekruleba
(kontraqti) Sromis pirobebze da mis anazRaurebaze nebismieri
sakuTrebis formis sawarmos xelmZRvenelTan an calkeul pirTan.
sawarmoo kooperativebis wevrebi _ pirebi, romlebic arian kooperativis
aqtiuri wevrebi, am dros, TiToeul wevrs, warmoebis organizaciis,
produqciis gasaRebisa da Semosavlebis ganawilebis sakiTxebTan
dakavSirebiT gadawyvetilebis miRebaSi, gaaCnia Tanabari uflebebi.
ufasod damxmare ojaxis wevrebi _ pirebi, romelTa saqmianobas
xelmZRvanelobs imave saojaxo meurneobaSi mcxovrebi naTesavi. isini ar
SeiZleba ganxiluli iqnes, rogorc kompanioni. es aixsneba imiT, rom maTi
monawileobis done sawarmos saqmianobaSi gansxvavebulia drois
faqtoris danaxarjebisa da sxva faqtorebis TvalsazrisiT.
muSakebi, romelTa saqmianoba ar eqvemdebareba klasifikacias _ pirebi,
romlebic saWiro informaciis ukmarisobis an sxva mizeziT, ar SeiZleba
mikuTvnili iqnen arc erT zemoT CamoTlili jgufisaTvis. es, rogorc
wesi, sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis momsaxurebisa da keTildReobis
warmoebiT dakavebuli pirebia.
profesiaTa tipebis saerTaSoriso klasifikatori
saerTaSoriso klasifikacia profesiis tipebis mixedviT iqna
miRebuli1988 wels. masSi gamoiyofa Semdegi profesia:
mmarTvelobis muSakebi, aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo
xelisuflebis muSakebi, maRali administraciuli kadrebi;
inteleqtualuri da samecniero profesiebi;
Sualeduri profesiebi (teqnikosebi, operatorebi, medpersonali,
kulturis mosamsaxureebi, socialuri muSakebi);
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administraciuli personali (mdivnebi, molareebi, kancelariis
muSakebi, momsaxure personali);
vaWrobis muSakebi;
soflis meurneobis muSakebi, meTevzeebi, metyeveebi;
xelosnebi da damxmare muSakebi;
manqanebisa da danadgarebis operatorebi;
arakvalificiuri muSakebi (meezoveebi, mtvirTavebi, quCis vaWrebi);
jari.
saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo klasifikaciebi
saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacia miRebuli iqna 1950 wels.
SemdgomSi ara erTxel moxda misi gadaxedva ZiriTadi saklasifikacio
principebis SenarCunebiT. misi mesame redaqcia miRebulia 1985 wels.
saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacia aris qveynebis sagareo
vaWrobis SedarebiTi analizis safuZveli.
mocemuli klasifikacia ajgufebs saqonels Semdegi niSnis mixedviT:
saqonlis damuSavebis donis mixedviT;
saqonlis daniSnulebis mixedviT;
sxva niSnebis mixedviT.
saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacias gaaCnia xuTi done:
ganyofilebebi;
jgufebi;
qvejgufebi;
sasaqonlo poziciebi;
qvepoziciebi.
amJamad saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciam dakarga Tavisi
mniSvneloba, rac aixsneba saerTaSoriso vaWrobis saqonlis kodirebisa
da aRweris harmonizirebul sistemaze gadasvliT.
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garda saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciisa saerTaSoriso
Sedarebebis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba:
1. saqonlis klasifikacia farTo ekonomikuri kategoriebis mixedviT;
2. sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklatura;
3. saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema;
saqonlis klasifikacia farTo ekonomikuri kategoriebis mixedviT
SemuSavebulia saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciis
safuZvelze da gamoiyeneba 1986 wlidan saerTaSoriso vaWrobis
Semajamebeli maCveneblebis Sedgenisas. masSi yvela saqoneli nawildeba
jgufebad produqciis daniSnulebis niSnis mixedviT (warmoebis
saSualebebi, Sualeduri saqoneli, samomxmareblo saqoneli), xolo
mocemuli jgufebis SigniT _ damuSavebis donis mixedviT.
sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklatura SemuSavebulia 1976 wels
briuselis sabaJos nomenklaturis bazaze da gamoiyeneba erovnuli
sabaJo tarifebis agebisas.
sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklaturas safuZvlad udevs Semdegi
niSnebi:
saqonlis damuSavebis done;
saqonlis warmoSoba.
saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema SemuSavebulia
sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklaturis safuZvelze da
SemoRebulia 1988 wels.
masSi saqonlis klasifikacia xorcieldeba Semdegi niSnis mixedviT:
saqonlis warmoSoba;
masalis saxeoba, romlisganac warmoebulia saqoneli;
saqonlis daniSnuleba;
saqonlis qimiuri Semadgenloba.
49
saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema aris kidev 12
sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso da erovnuli klasifikatoris sinTezi.
saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema uzrunvelyofs
komerciuli saqmianobis, sabaJo da statistikuri organoebis moTxovnebs.
is sagareo vaWrobaSi monacemTa Sedgenisa da sabaJo gadasaxadebis
ganakveTebis gansazRvris safuZvelia.
harmonizebuli sistemis nomenklaturis saklasifikacio dajgufebebis
erTmniSnelovnad gagebis uzrunvelsayofad SemuSavebulia
,,harmonizebuli sistemis axsna-ganmartebebi“. is moicavs ganyofilebebis,
jgufebis, sasaqonlo poziciebisa da subpoziciebis dawvrilebiT
ganmartebebs.
leqcia 4. erovnul angariSTa sistema saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi 2. erovnul angariSTa sistema, misi arsi da mniSvneloba 3. eas-Si gamoyenebuli koncefciebi da debulebebi 4. erovnul angariSTa sistemis gaeros axali versia 5. mTliani Sida produqtis gansazRvris meTodi easSi 6. erovnuli simdidris gansazRvris Taviseburebani
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi axasiaTeben nacionaluri ekonomikebis
Sedegebs kvlavwarmoebis yvela stadiaze.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi makroekonomikuri
maCveneblebi:
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba;
mTliani da wminda Sida produqti;
ekonomikis mTliani da wminda mogeba da Sereuli Semosavali;
ekonomikis mTliani da wminda erovnuli Semosavali;
50
mTliani da wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali;
saboloo erovnuli moxmareba;
mTliani da wminda erovnuli danazogi;
mTliani dagroveba;
wminda kreditebi da wminda valebi.
erovnul angariSTa sistema (easi), misi arsi da mniSvneloba
easi esaa qveynis ekonomikis makrostatistikuri modeli. eas-is Seswavlis
obieqtia qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionebis ekonomika, seqtorebi,
saqmianobis sferoebi, calkeuli ekonomikuri procesebi.
erovnul angariSTa sistema – es aris urTierTdakavSirebul
maCvenebelTa sistema, romelic gamoiyeneba sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi
makroekonomikuri procesebis aRwerisa da analizis mizniT.
eas-is mTeli ekonomikis angariSianobis Semajamebelia, radgan pirveladi,
sabuRaltro, sabanko aRricxva da statistika erTian meTodologiur
principebs efuZneba. eas-is maCveneblebi unificirebulia sagadasaxdelo
balansisa da dargTaSorisi balansis maCveneblebTan.
eas-is Seqmnas win uZRoda ganviTarebul qveynebSi sabazro ekonomikis
regulirebasa da ekonomikur informaciaze moTxovnilebis warmoSoba.
saqarTveloSi erovnuli statistikis gadasvla gaeros statistikuri
komisiis mier rekomendebul meTodologiaze ganapiroba sabazro
urTierTobebis ekonomikaSi danergvam. igi emyareba erovnul
angariSianobaze dafuZnebul saerTaSoriso praqtikas da am gziT
miiRweva informaciis mopovebis xerxebisa da ekonomikuri saqmianobisa da
misi Sedegebis aRricxvis meTodebis erTianoba. statistikuri
meTodologiis erTianoba ganapirobebs yvela qveynis maCvenebelTa
Sesadarisobas da mniSvnelovnad amartivebs saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
meqanizmsa da saimedoobas msoflios masStabiT.
51
statistikis meTodologiuri erTianoba xels uwyobs mTel msoflioSi
saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobisa da integraciuli procesebis
gafarToebas, bunebrivi resursebis racionalur gamoyenebasa da jansaRi
garemos SenarCunebis perspeqtivas momavali TaobebisaTvis, rac
ganpirobebulia erTi planetis SezRudul sivrceSi msoflio ekonomikis
istoriuli da perspeqtiuli ganviTarebis obieqturi mizezebiT, kerZod,
sawarmoo ZalaTa ganviTarebis kvaldakval bunebrivi resursebis
eqspluataciis gazrdiT, moxmarebisa da mosaxleobis zrdasTan erTad
geologiuri mdgomareobis gauaresebiT da a.S.
saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis mTavari idea Tanamedrove
etapze samyaros gadarCena da Semdgomi racionaluri da Tanmimdevruli
ganviTarebis uzrunvelyofa.
globalizaciis pirobebSi statistikis erTian saerTaSoriso
meTodologiaze gadasvla sxvadasxva qveynisaTvis SesaniSnavi saSualebaa
utyuari, Sesadarisi da yvelasaTvis gasagebi informaciis misaRebad.
EamasTan, erovnuli statistikuri samsaxurebis calkeuli Taviseburebani
ar arRvevs saerTaSoriso meTodologiuri principebis erTianobas.
sabazro urTierTobebis danergvam saqarTveloSi da statistikis
gadasvlam saerTaSoriso meTodologiaze Secvala Cveni warmodgenebi
ekonomikuri saqmianobis arssa, Sedegebsa da mis sazRvrebze. Seicvala
ekonomikuri procesebisa da maTi Sefasebis maCvenebelTa sistema,
gaangariSebis meTodika, SemoRebulia mTeli rigi axali cnebebisa da
kategoriebisa, romlebic dakavSirebulia ekonomikis struqturasTan,
saqonlis cnebasTan da a.S.
eas-is ZiriTadi amocanebia:
saerTaSoriso statistikur praqtikaSi miRebuli cnebebisa da
kategoriebis gamoyeneba ekonomikis daxasiaTebisaTvis.
eas-Si gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi klasifikaciebisa da dajgufebebis
ganxilva.
52
makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis sistemisa da maTi gaangariSebis
meTodebis gaSuqeba.
eas-is Sedgenis ZiriTadi principebisa da meTodologiis
daufleba.
calkeuli angariSebis Sedgenis meTodologiis Seswavla.
erovnuli simdidris gaangariSebis meTodologiis Seswavla.
eas-is analizis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebisa da meTodebis
ganxilva.
eas-Si gamoyenebuli koncefciebi da debulebebi
eas efuZneba mecnierulad dasabuTebul ekonomikur koncefciebs,
romelic uzrunvelyofs ekonomikuri procesebis adekvatur aRweras.
ekonomikur mecnierebaSi warmoebis koncefcia erT-erTi centraluria. igi
gansazRvravs saqmianobis saxeebs, sadac iqmneba Rirebuleba, erovnuli
Semosavali. aRsaniSnavia, rom es koncefcia sazogadoebisa da sawarmoo
Zalebis ganviTarebasTan erTad icvleboda. magaliTad, fiziokratebi
miiCnevdnen, rom warmoeba moicavda mxolod soflis meurneobasa da
mopovebiT mrewvelobas. es Teoria warmoiSva im dros, roca ekonomikis
wamyvani dargi soflis meurneoba iyo. kapitalizmis ganviTarebis
periodSi, rodesac adgili hqonda damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis
dominirebas, aSkara gaxda am Teoriis ususuroba.
ekonomikuri warmoebis Tanamedrove koncefciis Tanaxmad, warmoebis
sferoSi Sedis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebasTan dakavSirebuli
saqmianobis yvela saxe.
Semosavlebis koncefcia gansazRvravs Semosavlebis maCveneblebis
Sinaarss eas-Si. is SemuSavebulia cnobili ingliseli ekonomistis j.
hiksis mier da integrirebulia eas-Si. am koncefciis Tanaxmad,
Semosavalis wyaro SeiZleba iyos mxolod damatebuli Rirebuleba. ar
SeiZleba Semosavlad ganxilul iqnes: aqtivebis realizaciidan miRebuli
amonagebi da inflaciis Sedegad aqtivebis Rirebulebis cvlileba.
53
mesame koncefcia eyrdnoba warmoebis faqtorebis Teorias, romlis
Tanaxmad, Rirebuleba iqmneba SromiT, miwiTa da kapitaliT. erovnuli
Semosavlis Sefaseba faqtoruli SemosavlebiT gamoiyeneboda da
gamoiyeneba mraval qveyanaSi (aSS, inglisi, germania da sxv.), Tumca eas-93
ar iTvaliswinebs makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis Sefasebas faqtoruli
Semosavlebis mixedviT. igi gvTavazobs sabazro fasebis gamoyenebas,
romlebic gansxvavdebian faqtoruli Semosavlebisagan warmoebaze
gadasaxadebisa da subsidiebis saldoTi. amasTan, eas-93-is struqturaSi
gaTvaliswinebulia is monacemebi, romlebic SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes
faqtoruli Semosavlebis mixedviT erovnuli Semosavlis
gasaangariSeblad (Tu es mizanSewonilad CaiTvleba).
eas-93 faqtoruli Semosavlebis nacvlad iyenebs ,,pirveladi
Semosavlebis” kategorias _ anu Semosavlebisa, romelsac Rebuloben
ekonomikuri procesis monawileebi (agentebi) Seqmnili Rirebulebis
pirveladi ganawilebis Sedegad. pirveladi ganawilebis Sedegad
Semosavals Rebuloben ara mxolod sawarmoebi, korporaciebi da
Sinameurneobebi, romlebic uSualod monawileoben warmoebaSi, aramed
saxelmwifo marTvis organoebic (warmoebasa da importze gadasaxadebis
saxiT).
aRsaniSnavia, rom eas efuZneba ara mxolod zogad ekonomikuri xasiaTis
koncefciebs, aramed rig debulebebs, romlebic gansazRvraven monacemTa
damuSavebisa da mowesrigebis xerxebs ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
mniSvnelovani Sedegebisa da proporciebis gamovlenis mizniT. es
mniSvnelovani debulebebia:
gansxvaveba nakadebsa da maragebs Soris:
nakadi _ es aris maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs ama Tu im
procesis sidides (moculobas) drois periodSi (magaliTad warmoeba,
saqonlis yidva, xelfasis gacema da a.S.), maragi _ maCvenebeli, romelic
axasiaTebs resursebis (aqtivebis da valdebulebebis) arsebobas ama Tu im
TariRisaTvis. nakadebisa da maragebis maCveneblebi erTmaneTTan
54
dakavSirebulia Semdegi tolobiT: perodis bolosaTvis maragis sidide
udris periodis dasawyisisaTvis maragis sidides plus nakadi, romelic
axasiaTebs mocemuli resursis gadasvlas maragSi minus mocemuli
resursis maragidan amoReba.
mkveTri gansxvaveba ekonomikur operaciebsa da sxva ekonomikur
nakadebs Soris. sxva sityvebiT, nakadebi Sedgeba ekonomikuri
operaciebisa da sxva ekonomikuri nakadebisagan. ekonomikuri operacia
warmoadgens ekonomikur nakads, romelic Cndeba ori instituciuri
erTeulis erTmaneTTan nebayofilobiTi urTierTmoqmedebis Sedegad
(magaliTad, xelfasis gacema, saqonlis yidva da a.S.). calkeul
SemTxvevebSi ekonomikuri operacia SeiZleba ganxorcieldes erTi
instituciuri erTeulis farglebSi, Tu is gamodis ori sxvadasxva
saxiT. sxva ekonomikuri nakadebi _ es aris cvlilebebi aqtivebsa da
valdebulebSi, romlebic ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegs ar
warmoadgenen (magaliTad, xanZris, an wyaldidobis Sedegad saqonlis
maragis cvlileba. amave kategorias ganekuTvneba maragebis Rirebulebis
cvlileba inflaciis Sedegad).
mkveTri gansxvaveba realur (arafinansur) da finansur aqtivebs
Soris, finansuri aqtivebis nakadebsa da realur nakadebs Soris.
realuri nakadebi ZiriTadad warmoiqmneba warmoebis (anu
transformaciis procesSi, rodesac iqmneba saqoneli da momsaxureba da
xdeba sxva saqonelisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba) procesSi. warmoebis
procesi gulisxmobs iseTi faqtorebis gaerTianebasa da
urTierTqmedebas, rogoricaa: Sroma, miwa, kapitali. realur
(arafinansur) aqtivebs agreTve ganekuTvneba iseTi arawarmoebuli
aqtivebi, rogoricaa: miwa, bunebrivi wiaRiseulis maragebi da sxva.
finansuri aqtivi SeiZleba warmoiqmnas (maT Soris saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis warmoebis farglebs gareT), daifaros, gadaeces sxva
pirebsa da ekonomikis seqtorebs.
gansxvaveba, erTi mxriv, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebsa da
meore mxriv, Semosavlebis nakadebs Soris, anu aucilebelia ganvasxvaoT
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moZraoba Semosavalis moZraobisagan da maTi
registrireba moxdes calke cxrilebsa da angariSebSi.
gansxvaveba Sualedur da saboloo produqcias Soris: saboloo
55
moxmarebis produqtis SeZena xdeba saboloo moxmarebisaTvis,
investirebis an eqsportirebis mizniT da ara Semdgomi
gadamuSavebisaTvis. Sualeduri produqcia _ es aris produqcia, romelic
gamoiyeneba sawarmoo moxmarebisaTvis, anu warmoebaSi daxarjuli Sromis
sagnebi _ nedleuli, masala, saTbobi, energia da agreTve momsaxureba
warmoebis sferoSi. es gansxvaveba mniSvnelovania, radgan saboloo
moxmarebis produqti moicavs Sualeduri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
warmoebaze daxarjuli saqonlis Rirebulebas.magaliTi. avtomobilis
Rirebuleba moicavs foladis Rirebulebas, romlisaganac damzadebulia
misi ZiriTadi nawilebi da detalebi da daxarjuli energiis, saRebavis
da a.S. Rirebulebas.
Sualeduri da saboloo produqciebis gansxvaveba mniSvnelovania
mniSvnelovania ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebis zusti
gansazRvrisaTvis, ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gareSe. cxadia, produqtis
fizikuri maxasiaTeblebi yovelTvis ar aris sakmarisi mis misakuTneblad
Sualeduri an saboloo produqciisaTvis. magaliTi. puris qarxnis mier
SeZenili fqvili _ es Sualeduri moxmarebaa, xolo diasaxlisis mier
sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis _ saboloo moxmareba. produqtis
klasificireba aRniSnul or jgufad SeiZleba mxolod saqonlis
faqtobrivad gamoyenebis monacemebis safuZvelze.
gansxvavebis xazgasma instituciuri erTeulebis warmoebaSi
monawileobis an aqtivebis flobis Sedegad miRebul pirvelad
Semosavlebsa da gadanawilebis Sedegad (transfertebi) miRebul
Semosavlebs Soris. es aucilebelia erovnuli Semosavlisa da
Semosavlebis sxva maCveneblebis gaangariSebisas ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis
Tavidan asacileblad.
gansxvaveba mimdinare da kapitalur danaxarjebs Soris, rac imas niSnavs,
rom mimdinare da kapitaluri danaxarjebis registracia sxvadasxva
cxrilsa da angariSSi unda xdebodes. maTi meqanikuri dajameba
aramarTlzomieria.
rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, ekonomikuri operacia eass erT-erTi
mniSvnelovani kategoria _ es aris nebayofilobiTi urTierTqmedeba or
56
sameurneo subieqts Soris, rac dakavSirebulia produqciis warmoebasa
da gamoyenebasTan, Semosavlebis ganawilebasa da gadanawilebasTan,
finansuri aqtivebis SeZenasa da finansuri valdebulebebis aRebasTan.
ekonomikuri operaciebis tipuri magaliTebia saqonlis yidva da gayidva,
xelfasis gacema, pensiebisa da daxmarebebis gacema da miReba, kreditebis
gacema. ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegad erTi instituciuri erTeuli
meores gacvlis gziT an ufasod gadascems saqonelsa da momsaxurebas,
aqtivebs, sakuTrebis uflebebs. ekonomikuri operaciebis Sefaseba xdeba
eas-Si dadgenili wesebis Sesabamisad.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gamoyeneba moxmarebisa (Sualeduri da
saboloo) da agreTve dagrovebis miznebisTvis, unda Sefasdes saboloo
momxmareblis sabazro fasSi, romelic moicavs damatebuli Rirebulebis
gadasaxadsa (dRg) da sxva gadasaxadebs produqtebze, agreTve
satransporto da savaWro danamatebs. amgvarad, eass centraluri
maCvenebelis _ mSp-is Sefaseba xdeba saboloo momxmareblis fasebSi.
saqonlis gamoSvebis Sefaseba xdeba mwarmoeblis fasSi, romelic
saboloo myidvelis fasze naklebia savaWro-satransporto danamatebis,
dRg-sa da importze gadasaxadebis sididiT, an e.w. ZiriTad fasebSi,
romelic mwarmoeblis fasebze naklebia produqtebze gadasaxadebis
sididiT (garda dRg-sa da importze gadasaxadebisa), magram, amasTanave,
moicavs subsidiebs produqtebze.
movaxdinoT am sami saxis fasebis urTierTkavSiris ilustracia:
A – saboloo momxmareblis fasi.
B – dRg da importze gadasaxadi.
C – savaWro-satransporto danamatebi.
D – mwarmoeblis fasi (A-B-C).
E – produqtebze gadasaxadi, garda dRg-sa da gadasaxadebisa importze
(aqcizebi, gadasaxadi gayidvebze da sxv.).
F – subsidiebi produqtebze.
G – ZiriTadi fasebi (D-E-F).
57
H – sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze.
I – sxva subsidiebi warmoebaze.
J – faqtobrivi Rirebuleba (G-H+I).
rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, eas-93-Si faqtoruli Rirebuleba ar gamoiyeneba,
Tumca saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi sistema iZleva erovnuli Semosavlis
faqtoruli Rirebulebis mixedviT gaangariSebis saSualebas.
eas-Si asxvaveben produqtebze gadasaxadebsa (dRg, aqcizi, gadasaxadi
gayidvebze da a.S.) da warmoebaze sxva gadasaxadebs. erTobliobaSi isini
qmnian gadasaxadebs warmoebasa da importze. produqtebze gadasaxadebi
warmoebuli an realizirebuli produqciis moculobis an Rirebulebis
proporciulia. warmoebaze sxva gadasaxadebi (magaliTad, miwaze,
Senobebze, ZiriTad kapitalze, xelfasze gadasaxadi) ki _ warmoebis
faqtorebis proporciuli.
subsidiebi, romlebic SeiZleba warmovidginoT rogorc uaryofiTi
gadasaxadebi, eas-Si agreTve iyofa or jgufad, romlebic gadasaxadebis
zemoaRniSnuli ori jgufis simetriulia: subsidiebi produqtebze,
romlebic warmoebuli an ganawilebuli produqtebis moculobebis
proporciulia da sxva subsidiebi warmoebaze (magaliTad, saxelmwifo
biujetidan subsidiebis gamoyofa im sawarmoebisTvis, romlebic qiraoben
mosaxleobis ama Tu im jgufebs, magaliTad, invalidebs, axalgazrdebs
da a.S.), romlebic warmoebaSi gamoyenebuli faqtorebis proporciulia.
amgvarad, erTi mxriv, gansxvaveba produqtebze gadasaxadebsa da
warmoebis sxva gadasaxadebs Soris da meore mxriv, _ produqtebze
subsidiebsa da warmoebaze sxva subsidiebs Soris, _ eas-is mniSvnelovani
principia, romlis gageba mniSvnelovania ZiriTadi maCveneblebis
gaangariSebisa da Sefasebis wesebis gasarkvevad.
zogadad, eas-Si gamoSvebis Sefaseba xdeba mwarmoeblis fasebSi an
ZiriTad fasebSi. upiratesoba eniWeba ZiriTad fasebs, vinaidan isini
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zustad asaxaven sawarmos gankargulebaSi arsebul resursebs da ufro
zust warmodgenas iZlevian ekonomikis dargobriv struqturaze.
erovnul angariSTa sistemis gaeros axali versia
amJamad moqmedebs 1993 wels miRebuli eas-is III varianti. masSi
gaumjobesebulia angariSTa struqtura da is moicavs angariSTa Semdeg
klasebs:
1. angariSTa standartuli nakrebi ekonomikis yvela seqtorisaTvis.
2. ekonomikis dargobrivi angariSebi.
3. angariSebi ekonomikuri operaciebis sxvadasxva saxisaTvis (magaliTad,
angariSebi: operaciebi sxva qveynebTan, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
angariSi da sxv.).
4. angariSebi mTeli ekonomikisaTvis.
axali eas-is mniSvnelovani Taviseburebaa mis struqturaSi satelituri
angariSebis (damxmare angariSebis) CarTva, romlebic gankuTvnilia
socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis calkeuli aspeqtebis analizisaTvis
iseTi midgomebis gamoyenebiT, rac ar aris mocemuli eas--Si.
Tanamedrove eas SeiZleba warmovidginoT rogorc informaciis
urTierTdakavSirebuli blokebis sistema, romelSic TiToeuli bloki
asaxavs ekonomikuri procesebis ama Tu im aspeqts, xolo mTlianobaSi
isini uzrunvelyofen ekonomikuri procesebis saerTo suraTis asaxvas. am
sistemis centria urTierTdakavSirebuli makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis
monacemTa bloki, romelSic Sedis: mTliani Sida produqti (mSp),
erovnuli Semosavali da maTi Semadgeneli mniSvnelovani komponentebi.
erovnul angariSTa sistemis III variantis struqtura SeiZleba Semdegi
sqemiT warmovadginoT:
59
istoriulad eas-is pirveli da centraluri bloki gaCnda mSp-sa da
erovnuli Semosavlis gaangariSebebis erTian sistemaSi integrirebis
Sedegad. igi xorcieldeba sawarmoo, ganawilebiTi (Semosavlebis) da
saboloo moxmarebis (gamoyenebis, xarjebis) meTodebiT.
erovnuli ekonomikis
angariSebi
saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis angariSi
warmoebis angariSi
sazRvargareTis
seqtoris angariSebi
saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis angariSi
Semosavlebis
formirebis angariSi
Semosavlebis
ganawilebis angariSi
pirveladi
Semosavlebisa da
mimdinare transferebis
angariSi
erovnul angariSTa
sistema
kapitalis angariSi
Semosavlebis
gamoyenebis angariSi
finansuri angariSi
kapitalis angariSi
aqtivebis sxva
cvlilebis angariSi
finansuri angariSi
gadafasebis angariSi
60
aRniSnul integraciasa da zogadad aSS-is erovnuli angariSebis
SeqmnaSi didi wvlili miuZRvis cnobil amerikel statistikoss _ saimon
kuznecs. meore msoflio omis Semdeg eas-is aRniSnul bloks miuerTda
ekonomikuri procesebis sxvadasxva aspeqtis amsaxveli makroekonomikuri
informaciis danarCeni blokebi:
erovnuli simdidrisa da ekonomikis seqtorebis monacemTa bloki.
finansuri resursebis moZraobis monacemTa bloki (finansuri
instrumentebis operaciebi).
saxelmwifo biujetis monacemebTan koordinirebuli saxelmwifo
marTvis organoebis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis monacemTa bloki.
sagadasaxdelo balansTan koordinirebuli sagareo-ekonomikuri
kavSirebis monacemTa bloki.
dargTaSorisi kavSirebis monacemTa bloki (dargTaSorisi balansi
Tanamedrove eass ganuyofeli nawilia).
yvela bloki erTmaneTTan dakavSirebulia koordinirebuli da
harmonizebuli ganmartebebiTa da klasifikaciebiT, rac qmnis safuZvels
yovlismomcveli ekonomikuri analizisaTvis. E eas-is aseTi xasiaTi
iZleva, magaliTad, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis Sesaxeb
arsebuli monacemebis Sedarebis saSualebas arsebuli aqtivebisa da
pasivebis struqturul monacemebTan.
eas-is monacemebis analizis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia: ekonomikuri zrdis
tempebisa da ekonomikur koniunqturaSi mimdinare rxevebis gansazRvra.
ekonomikis struqturisa da misi droSi cvlilebebis Seswavla,
makroekonomikuri cvladebis, rogoricaa mSp, mTliani dagroveba,
saboloo moxmareba, wminda eqsporti da a.S dinamikis gansazRvra.
es monacemebi farTod gamoiyeneba qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
mokle da saSualovadiani prognozebis Sesadgenad, romelTa
safuZvelzec miiReba mniSvnelovani gadawyvetilebebi saxelmwifo
biujetisa da sagadasaxado da sainvesticio politikis formirebasTan
dakavSirebiT. Tanamedrove pirobebSi mSp _ eas-is centraluri agregati
61
_ iqca im maCveneblad, romlis gareSe SeuZlebelia saxelmwifo biujetis
ZiriTadi parametrebis dasabuTeba.
eas-is monacemebis analizis mniSvnelovani mimarTulebebia agreTve:
erovnuli danazogis, rogorc investirebis ZiriTadi wyaros gazomva,
wminda dakreditebis an wminda sesxebis moculobis dadgena, sagareo-
ekonomikuri kavSirebis gamokvleva. eas-is seqtoruli angariSebis
SemuSaveba iZleva mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis elementebis, ekonomikis
calkeuli seqtorebis mdgomareobis gamokvlevisa da analizis
gaRrmavebis saSualebas.
zemoaRniSnuli da eas-is sxva monacemebi ekonomikuri statistikis
maCveneblebTan erTad farTod gamoiyeneba fiskaluri da fuladi
politikis sakiTxebis gadasawyvetad. amasTan dakavSirebiT
gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba SeiZina mSp-sa da saxelmwifo biujetis
deficitis Tanafardobis maCvenebelma, romelsac mTavroba iyenebs
fiskaluri politikis efeqtianobis Sesafaseblad. evrokavSirSi es
koeficienti sxva makromaCveneblebTan erTad gamoiyeneba qveynebis
savaluto fondSi daSvebis sakiTxis gadasaWrelad.
amave konteqstSi arsebiTi mniSvneloba aqvs miRebuli gadasaxadebis,
saxelmwifo valis, sagadasaxdelo balansis mimdinare operaciebis
saldosa da mSp-s Tanafardobis maCveneblebs, ris mixedviTac mTavrobam
konkretuli gadawyvetilebebi unda miiRos sagadasaxado sistemis
reformasTan, savaluto kursisa da sagareo valebis sferoSi politikis
gatarebasTan dakavSirebiT.
eas-is mniSvnelovani elementia angariSebi. isini gamoiyeneba ekonomikur
procesSi rezidenti instituciuri erTeulebis mier ganxorcielebuli
ekonomikuri operaciebis registrirebisaTvis. angariSebSi agreTve
registrirdeba operaciebi mocemuli qveynis rezidentebsa da danarCeni
msoflios rezidentebs Soris.
62
angariSebSi Canawerebi miekuTvneba ara yovel calkeul ekonomikur
operacias, aramed ekonomikuri operaciebis Sesabamisi jgufebis
ganzogadebul ricxobriv daxasiaTebebs (magaliTad, moxmareba,
dagroveba, eqsporti). zogierTi Canaweri angariSSi warmoadgens ara
ekonomikur operacias (nebayofilobiT urTierTqmedebas or da met
instituciur erTeuls Soris), aramed araordinaluri movlenebis
(xanZari, stiqiuri ubedureba, omebi da sxv.) an inflaciis Sedegad
aqtivebis cvlilebas.
zogierTi Canaweri angariSSi warmoadgens ekonomikuri procesis
sxvadasxva aspeqtis analitikur ganzogadebul maCveneblebs. am
maCvenebelTa didi nawili (magaliTad, damatebuli Rirebuleba, danazogi,
pirveladi ganawilebis saldo) gaiangariSeba sabalanso meTodiT, e.i.
rogorc sxvaoba resursebSi Canawerebis jamsa da gamoyenebaSi
Canawerebis jams Soris.
erovnuli angariSebis Sedgenis ZiriTadi principebia:
Tanmimdevrobis principi kvlavwarmoebis ciklis Tanmimdevrobis
Sesabamisia (warmoeba _ Semosavlebis formireba _ Semosavlebis
ganawileba _ Semosavlebis gamoyeneba).
,,T” formis principi _ yvela angariSi Sedgeba ori ganyofilebisagan
(sveti), marjvena moicavs ,,resursebs”, marcxena _,,gamoyenebas”.
angariSebis SekavSirebis principi - ama Tu im angariSis yovel
muxls sxva angariSSi sakorespondento angariSi aqvs.
ormagi Caweris principi (sabuRaltro aRricxvis principi) _ eas-Si
yoveli operacia aisaxeba orjer: wina angariSis ganyofilebaSi
,,gamoyeneba” da momdevno angariSis ganyofilebaSi ,,resursebi”.
sabalanso meTodis principi _ yvela ekonomikuri nakadi
registrirdeba balansis formiT.
gaangariSebiTi kategoriebis principi _ damabalansebeli muxli
uwinaresad aris gaangariSebiTi kategoria, romlis daniSnulebaa
ara mxolod resursebisa da maTi gamoyenebis moculobebs Soris
balansis uzrunvelyofa, aramed ama Tu im ekonomikuri procesis
63
daxasiaTeba, rac maT mniSvnelovan makroekonomikur maCveneblad
aqcevs.
eas-is struqturis safuZvels warmoadgens angariSebi da sabalanso
cxrilebi. angariSi asaxavs operaciebs, aqtivebs an sameurneo erTeulebis
valdebulebebs. is warmoadgens ormxriv cxrils, sadac jamebs Soris
toloba miiRweva damabalansebeli muxlis meSveobiT da es
damabalansebeli muxli makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia. damabalansebeli
muxli iZleva erTi angariSidan meoreze gadasvlisa da angariSebis erT
sistemaSi SekavSirebis saSualebas.
eas-Si arsebobs angariSebis mkafio klasifikacia:
angariSebi ekonomikis instituciuri seqtorebisaTvis.
angariSebi ekonomikis dargebisaTvis.
angariSebi calkeuli ekonomikuri operaciebisaTvis.
angariSebi mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis (konsolidirebuli angariSebi).
angariSebi ekonomikis instituciuri seqtorebisaTvis iyofa Semdeg sam
jgufad:
mimdinare operaciebis angariSebi.
dagrovebis angariSebi.
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansebi.
mimdinare operaciebis angariSebia:
warmoebis angariSi.
Semosavlebis formirebis angariSi.
pirveladi Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSi.
Semosavlebis meoradi ganawilebis angariSi.
Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSi (naturalur formaSi).
koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavlebis gamoyenebis angariSi.
dagrovebis angariSebia:
kapitalis operaciebis angariSi.
finansuri angariSi.
aqtivebSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSi:
64
a) aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSi.
b) gadafasebis angariSi.
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi:
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi periodis dasawyisisaTvis.
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi periodis bolosaTvis.
mTliani Sida produqtis gansazRvris meTodi eas-Si
ekonomikis funqcionirebis Sedegebis mTavari makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia
mTliani Sida produqti. es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba rogorc calkeuli
qveynebis, aseve saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier. igi gamoiyeneba
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis, sazogadoebrivi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis
gaangariSebisa da ekonomikuri efeqtianobis sxva maCveneblebis daxasiaTebis
mizniT.
mSp aris wlis manZilze mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze
warmoebuli yvela saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba Sualeduri
moxmarebis gamoklebiT.
sawarmos, dargis, seqtoris doneze mSp-s Seesabameba maCvenebeli mTliani
damatebuli Rirebuleba.
mSp-Si Sedis agreTve ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba (Cvens praqtikaSi
amortizacia). es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri saqmianobis mTliani
Sedegebis daxasiaTebis mizniT. im mizezis gamo, rom produqciisa da
momsaxurebis realizaciis Semdeg amortizaciis anaricxebi isev ubrundeba
mwarmoebels, rac saSualebas iZleva axali investiciebis
gansaxorcieleblad, kerZod, kapitaluri remontisTvis, ZiriTadi kapitalis
renovaciisaTvis da sxv., dasavleTis qveynebSi daCqarebuli amortizacia
ganixileba rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis faqtori.
miuxedavad imisa, rom wminda maCveneblebis gamoTvla Zalian mniSvnelovania,
ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gazomva aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis bazaze
dReisaTvis gaZnelebulia, amitom prioriteti eniWeba mdR-is gamoTvlas.
65
sagareo vaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mSp SeiZleba gaviangariSoT
kvlavwarmoebis ciklis yovel stadiaze Sesabamisi meTodebis daxmarebiT:
sawarmoo.
ganawilebiTi.
saboloo moxmarebis.
sawarmoo meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia sxvadasxva xerxiT:
1. mSp sabazro fasebSi = Sida ekonomikaSi warmoebuli saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba ZiriTad fasebSi _ Sualeduri
moxmarebis saerTo Rirebuleba + damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi
+ wminda gadasaxadebi importze.
2. mSp sabazro fasebSi = dargebis damatebuli Rirebulebis (sabazro
fasebSi) jams, e.i igi moicavs wminda gadasaxadebs produqtebsa da
importze (dRg-s gareSe). amasTan, mdR dargSi gaiangariSeba rogorc
sxvaoba mg-sa (sabazro fasebSi) da Sm-s Soris.
3. mSp sabazro fasebSi = ekonomikis seqtorebSi mdR-s jami (sabazro
fasebSi).
mSp-is gaangariSeba warmoebis stadiaze asaxavs warmoebis wyaroebs. masSi
aRricxulia saangariSo periodis mTliani gamoSveba (warmoebis fasebSi)
Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoklebiT (moxmarebis fasebSi). igi saSualebas
gvaZlevs davaxasiaToT TiToeuli dargis, seqtoris wvlili mSp-s SeqmnaSi,
avsaxoT ekonomikis dargobrivi struqtura da ganviTarebis xasiaTi.
ganawilebiTi meTodi gamoiyeneba ganawilebis stadiaze. es aris pirveladi
Semosavlebis jami, romelic rezidenti ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier
nawildeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mwarmoebelTa Soris: daqiravebul
momuSaveTa Sromis anazRaurebas + wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da
importze + mTliani mogeba + mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.
ganawilebiTi meTodis saSualebiT mSp-s gaangariSeba saSualebas gvaZlevs
gavaanalizoT Semosavlebi da maTi struqtura, warmoebis faqtorTa
danaxarjebi (ZiriTadi kapitali, samuSao Zala), mTliani damatebuli
Rirebulebis ganawileba mis mwarmoeblebs Soris.
66
mSp-is gaangariSebis mocemul meTods damoukidebeli mniSvnelobac aqvs
Semosavlebisa da maTi struqturis analizSi, sagadasaxado tvirTisa da
mTliani mogebis xveriTi wilis daxasiaTebis mizniT da sxv.
saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT mSp gaiangariSeba rogorc saboloo
moxmarebisa da mTliani dazogvis jami eqsport-importis saldos
gaTvaliswinebiT.
gamoyenebis stadiaze gamoTvlili mSp tolia saboloo moxmarebisTvis
SeZenili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisa moxmarebis fasebSi. eas-
is angariSebSi mSp-is saboloo moxmareba iyofa Semdeg muxlebad: piradi da
saxelmwifo moxmareba, mTliani dagroveba (sabrunavi saSualebebis
maragebis mateba, kapitaldabandebebi) da eqsport-importis saldo.
sxvadasxva meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSebas garduvalad mivyavarT misi
raodenobrivi Sefasebebis gansxvavebebTan, rac ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia
Segrovili statistikuri masalis araadekvaturobiT (SeusabamobiT)
ekonomikur operaciebTan. ganviTarebul qveynebSi sxvadasxva meTodiT
gamoTvlil mSp-ebs Soris sxvaoba 1-2%-s Seadgens. statistikur cnobarebSi
aRniSnuli SemTxvevebi formulirdeba specialur poziciaSi “statistikuri
gansxvavebani”.
erovnuli simdidris gansazRvris Taviseburebani
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
erovnuli simdidris koncefcia, romelic rekomendebulia erovnul
angariSTa sistema-93-Si da gaziarebulia erovnuli statistikebis mier
SeiZleba mokled Semdegnairad warmovadginoT:
erovnuli simdidre aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti instituciuri
erTeulebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami raime TariRisaTvis (wlis
dasawyisSi an bolosaTvis).
67
kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba aris instituciuri erTeulis yvela
ekonomikuri aqtivis (arafinansuri da finansuri) Rirebulebasa da maT
finansur valdebulebaTa sidides Soris sxvaoba.
mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidre udris arafinansuri aqtivebis
Rirebulebas damatebuli wminda finansuri moTxovnebi danarCen
msofliosTan. erovnuli simdidre SeiZleba agreTve gansazRvruli iyos,
rogorc ekonomikis seqtorebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami, maTi
finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
erovnuli simdidris gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba mxolod
sazRvargareTis finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis saldo, vinaidan
erovnuli ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris warmoqmnili finansuri aqtivebi da
valdebulebebi urTierTgdaifareba.
erovnul simdidreSi CarTuli unda iyos mxolod is aqtivebi, romlebzec
konkretul sameurneo subieqtebs SeuZliaT gaavrcelon sakuTrebis ufleba
(aseTi aqtivebs ekonomikuri aqtivebi ewodeba).
erovnul simdidres ar miekuTvneba moZiebuli bunebrivi resursebi, romlebic
ama Tu im mizezis gamo ar iyo CarTuli ekonomikur procesSi, ar warmoadgens
konkretuli instituciuri erTeulebis sakuTrebas. yvela aqtivi da
valdebuleba unda Sefasdes im momentisaTvis arsebul sabazro fasebSi da
ara maTi SeZenis fasebSi, rasac xSirad adgili aqvs sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi.
erovnuli simdidris ganmartebidan Cans, rom mis SemadgenlobaSi CarTuli
unda iyos aqtivebi, romlebic sazRvargareT aris ganTavsebuli, magram
mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis sakuTrebaa (magaliTad, saelCoebis,
sakonsuloebis, warmomadgenlobebis da a. S. Senobebi da qoneba) da, piriqiT:
aqtivebi, romlebic ganTavsebulia mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze, magram
ararezidentebis sakuTrebaa, ar SeiZleba CaiTvalos mocemuli qveynis
erovnul simdidred. Tumca sazRvargareT ganTavsebuli kompaniebis aqtivebi,
romlebic mTlianad an nawilobrivadaa SeZenili mocemuli qveynis
rezidentebis mier, SeiZleba SevitanoT mocemuli qveynis erovnul
68
simdidreSi finansuri aqtivebis mxolod im moculobiT, rac adasturebs
rezidentebis sakuTrebis uflebas kompaniaze an mis nawilze.
rac Seexeba ararezidentebis mier SeZenil Senobebsa da miwebs, isini
ganixileba rogorc finansuri aqtivebis SeZena, romelic aZlevs maT
sakuTrebis uflebas miwasa da Senobebze. amave dros, ararezidentebze
miyiduli miwa da Senobebi pirobiTi rezident-erTeulebis sakuTrebad
iTvleba. qveynis erovnuli simdidris Sefasebisas misi arafinansuri aqtivebis
SemadgenlobaSi Sedis Senobebisa da miwis Rirebuleba, romelic gayidulia
ararezidentebze, magram imavdroulad es Sefasebebi unda aisaxos rogorc
mocemuli qveynis finansuri valdebuleba “danarCen msofliosTan”
mimarTebaSi da, saboloo angariSiT, ararezidentebze gayiduli miwa da
Senobebi amoRebuli iqneba qveynis erovnuli simdidridan. aRsaniSnavia, rom
sazRvargareTis aqtivebis moculobisa da sabazro Rirebulebis gansazRvra
rTuli amocanaa.
eas-93-is Sesabamisad erovnuli simdidris gaangariSeba unda ganxorcieldes
rogorc mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis, ise misi seqtorebisaTvis.
ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT aqtivebis Rirebulebisa da Semadgenlobis
monacemebi saSualebas gvaZlevs SevafasoT erovnuli simdidris ganawileba,
aqtivebis likviduroba. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sesaxeb monacemebi seqtorebis
mixedviT saWiroa maTi investiciuri aqtiurobisa da dafinansebaze
moTxovnilebis analizisaTvis, agreTve warmoebis efeqtianobis
(kapitalukugebis) Sesafaseblad. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis Sesaxeb
monacemebi saWiroa maTi brunvadobisa da warmoebis procesis uzrunvelyofis
analizisaTvis.
mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidris gaangariSeba da kapitalis
wminda Rirebuleba ekonomikis seqtorebisaTvis aisaxeba aqtivebisa da
pasivebis balansSi (cxrili 10.1), romelic dgeba periodis sawyisi da
saboloo mdgomareobis mixedviT.
69
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi
cxrili 10.1.
aqtivebi operaciebi da damabalansebeli
muxlebi
kapitalis wminda
Rirebuleba da
valdebulebani
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi
periodis dasawyisisaTvis
* arafinansuri aqtivebi
* warmoebuli aqtivebi
* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
* finansuri aqtivebi
finansuri valdebulebebi *
kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba *
jamuri cvlilebebi aqtivebsa da
valdebulebebSi
* arafinansuri aqtivebi
* warmoebuli aqtivebi
* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
* finansuri aqtivebi
finansuri valdebulebebi *
kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis
cvlilebis Sedegi
*
* danazogebi da kapitaluri
transfertebi
*
70
sxva cvlilebebi aqtivebis moculobaSi *
nominaluri holdinguri mogeba
(zarali)
*
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi
periodis bolosaTvis
* arafinansuri aqtivebi
* warmoebuli aqtivebi
* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
* finansuri aqtivebi
finansuri valdebulebebi *
kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba *
aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi _ erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is erT-
erTi mniSvnelovani cxrilia, radgan is moicavs monacemebs mniSvnelovan
makroekonomikur kategoriaze _ erovnuli simdidris Sesaxeb.
periodis dasawyisSi da periodis bolosaTvis aqtivebisa da pasivebis
balansis maCveneblebis Sedareba saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovavlinoT
periodis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebisa da erovnuli simdidris Rirebulebebis
cvlileba, rac ekonomikuri operaciebisa da sxva mniSvnelovani xasiaTis
faqtorebis gavlenis (stiqiuri ubedureba, xanZari da sxv.) Sedegia. es
cvlilebebi registrirdeba erovnul angariSTa sistemis sxva
angariSebSi.
periodis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebis Rirebulebis cvlileba SeiZleba
warmovadginoT Semdegi saxiT:
At+1= At+ek. + sxv. + Mр,
sadac At da At+1 Sesabamisad mocemuli saxis aqtivebis Rirebulebaa
periodis dasawyisSi da bolosaTvis.
71
ek. _ saangariSo periodSi ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegad aqtivebis
Rirebulebis cvlileba (warmoeba, yidva-gayidva, usasyidlod gadacema),
e.i. esaa sxvaoba SeZenili (A+) da mwyobridan gamosuli aqtivebis (A-):A+-
A- Rirebulebebs Soris, rac aisaxeba erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi
finansur angariSSi da kapitalis angariSSi.
sxv. _ aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis Rirebuleba,
dakavSirebuli araekonomikur operaciebTan (sasargeblo wiaRiseulis
moZieba, stiqiuri ubedurebebi da a. S.). RirebulebaSi cvlilebebi iseve
ganisazRvreba, rogorc wina SemTxvevaSi da gamoisaxeba tolobiT (1)
niSnis gaTvaliswinebiT.
sxv. aisaxeba aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSSi.
Mр _ aqtivebis Rirebulebis nominaluri gadideba an Semcireba,
periodis ganmavlobaSi, ganpirobebuli misi fasis cvlilebiT, e.i.
dadebiTi an uaryofiTi holdinguri mogebaa. Mр _ aisaxeba eas-is
gadafasebis angariSSi.
aseTive urTierTkavSiri arsebobs finansur valdebulebebsa da
kapitalis wminda Rirebulebas Soris.
ekonomikuri aqtivebi aris Rirebulebis mqone obieqtebi, romlebzec
instituciuri erTeulebis mier individualurad an koleqtiurad
vrceldeba sakuTrebis ufleba da romelTa flobiT (an gamoyenebiT) maT
flobelebs garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi SeuZliaT ekonomikuri
sargeblis miReba.
aqtivebs ar miekuTvneba adamianiseuli kapitali, bunebrivi aqtivebi,
romlebic ar iTvleba ekonomikur aqtivebad (magaliTad, sahaero sivrce)
da garantiis tipis pirobiTi aqtivebi, romlebic ar warmoadgenen
finansur aqtivebs (magaliTad, valis dafarvis garantia, romelic
SemoTavazebulia mesame mxaris mier, sakredito xazi da a. S.).
erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is Sesabamisad yvela aqtivi iyofa sam
ZiriTad jgufad _ arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi, arafinansuri
arawarmoebuli aqtivebi da finansuri aqtivebi:
72
I. arafinansuri aqtivebi
1. arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi
1.1. ZiriTadi kapitali
1.1.1. materialuri ZiriTadi kapitali
sacxovrebeli binebi
sxva Senobebi da nagebobebi
manqanebi da mowyobilobebi
kultivirebadi aqtivebi
1.1.2. aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali
sasargeblo wiaRiseulis moZieba
programuli uzrunvelyofa (kompiuterebis)
literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis
originalebi
sxva aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali
1.2. materialuri sabrunavi kapitalis maragebi
1.2.1. masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi
1.2.2. daumTavrebeli warmoeba
1.2.3. mza produqcia
1.2.4. saqoneli xelmeored gasayidad
1.3. faseulobani
1.3.1. Zvirfasi qvebi da liTonebi
1.3.2. antikvariati da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebi
1.3.3. sxva faseulobebi
2. arafinansuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
2.1. materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
2.1.1. miwa
2.1.2. sasargeblo wiaRiseuli
2.1.3. arakultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi
2.1.4. wylis resursebi
2.2. aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi
2.2.1. dapatentebuli obieqtebi
2.2.2. xelSekrulebebi arendis Sesaxeb da sxva gadasacemi
xelSekrulebebi
2.2.3. nayidi gudvili (saqmiani kavSirebisa da reputaciis
73
pirobiTi Rirebuleba)
2.2.4. sxva aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi.
II. finansuri aqtivebi
1. monetaruli oqro da nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi
2. naRdi fuli da depozitebi
3. fasiani qaRaldebi, aqciebis garda
4. sesxebi
5. aqciebi da kapitalSi monawileobis sxva saxeebi
6. dazRvevis teqnikuri rezervebi
7. kreditorebisa da debitorebis sxva angariSebi
leqcia 5. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis arsi 2. valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis cneba 3. saqonel-warmomadgelebis SerCeva saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
programisTvis 4. mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologia
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis arsi
sxvadsxva qveynis maCvenebelTa Sedareba uaxles dromde xorcieldeboda
SezRuduli informaciis safuZvelze. aseTi situacia iwvevda msoflio
ekonomkaSi ama Tu im qveynis adgilze mravalricxovan alternatiul
Sefasebebs.
amJamad qveynebi gadadian saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis Sedegis miRebis
principulad axal gzaze gaeros saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programaSi
monawileobiT.
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa esa kvleviTi programa, romelsac
axorcieleben erovnuli statistikuri samsaxurebis, saerTaSoriso
statistikuri organizaciebis, kvleviTi danayofebis statistikuri
organoebi.
74
am programis Sedegebis meSveobiT xdeba iseTi mniSvnelovani amocanebis
gadawyveta rogoricaa:
qveynebis saerTo ekonomikuri ganviTarebis Sefaseba;
mosaxleobis keTildReobis Sefaseba;
ekonomikuri da samxedro potencialis Sedareba;
erovnuli ekonomikebis efeqtianobis gansazRvra da Sedareba;
qveynebis finansuri SesaZleblobebis gansazRvra;
bazris koniunqturis analizi (bazris tevadoba, valutis
myidvelobiTi unari);
saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri integraciis Seswavla;
ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis daxmarebis moculobisa da politikis
gansazRvra;
ganviTarebis ekonomikuri Teoriebis SemuSaveba (ganviTarebis
modelebis).
RirebulebiTi makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
ganxorcieleba moiTxovs Semdegi ori problemis gadawyvetas:
Sesadarebeli maCveneblebis ekonomikuri Sinaarsis unificirebas;
maCveneblebis erovnuli valutidan erTian fulad erTeulSi
gadaangariSebis meTodikis SerCevas.
pirveli problemis gadawyveta efuZneba saerTaSoriso standartuli
klasifikaciebisa da erTiani meTodologiis gamoyenebas.
meore problema mdgomareobs gaangariSebis formulis, wonebis, kerZo
indeqsebis agregirebis xerxebis SerCevaSi. am problemis gadawyveta
ganisazRvreba Casatarebeli Sedarebebis ekonomikuri SinaarsiT, miznebiT
da amocanebiT, amosavali informaciiT. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
TeoriaSi ganasxvaveben:
pirdapir wyvilad Sedarebebs (binaruli Sedarebebi);
mravalmxriv Sedarebebs qveynebis jgufebisaTvis erTdroulad.
75
saerTaSoriso organizaciebi gaero, mb, euTo rogorc wesi atareben
mravalmxriv Sedarebebs. zogierT SemTxvevaSi amdagvar SedarebebSi
gamoiyeneba centraluri yveynis meTodi. am meTodis gamoyenebisas yvela
yveynis makromaCveneblebis Sedareba xdeba sabaziso (centraluri) qveynis
makromaCveneblebTan. es niSnavs imas, rom nebismieri qveynebis
wyvilisaTvis indeqsebi gaiangariSeba arapirdapir, e.i. am yveynebis
maCenebelTa indeqsebis centraluri qveynis maCveneblebTan
SepirispirebiT.
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa xorcieldeba ramednime etapad:
mTliani warmoeba an moxmareba iyofa pirvelad sasaqonlo
jgufebad, jgufebi ki qvejgufebad;
jgufebSi Sesadarebeli qvenebisaTvis SerCeva erTnairi saqonel-
warmomadgenlebi, fiqsirdeba maTi fasebi da gaiangariSeba fasebis
Tanafardobis individualuriindeqsebi;
qvejgufisaTvis gaiangariSeba fasebis saSualo indeqsi saSualo
geometriuli formuliT;
qvejgufebis fasebis saSualo indeqsebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba
msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi sasaqonlo jgufebisaTvis;
miRebuli paritetebis meSveobiT produqciis RirebulebiT
moculobebi sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT gadaiangariSeba erTian
valutaSi;
ganisazRvreba warmoebis (realizaciis) fizikuri moculobis
indeqsebi.
valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis cneba
erovnuli angariSebis sistemis struqtura iTvaliswinebs fasebisa da
fizikuri moculobis maCveneblebis analizisaTvis gamosadegi,
konceptualurad SeTanxmebuli erTiani kompleqsis Sedgenis
SesaZleblobas. amocana mdgomareobs urTierTdakavSirebuli
maCveneblebis gaangariSebaSi, rac iZleva inflaciis, ekonomikuri zrdisa
da misi dinamikis sistematuri, detaluri analizis Catarebisa da
76
agreTve saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis problemebis gadawyvetis
saSualebas.
saerTaSoriso makroekonomikuri Sesadarisobis ZiriTadi mizania
sxvadasxva qveynis mTliani Sida produqtisa da erovnuli angariSebis
sxva agregatebis gadayvana erTian valutaSi maTi pirdapiri
Sesadarisobis uzrunvelsayofad.
mSp-is analizis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa mSp-sa da misi
komponentebis saerTaSoriso Sedareba. amisaTvis sxvadasxva qveynis mSp
erTian valutaSi (magaliTad, aSS dolarebSi) unda iyos gamosaxuli. am
miznisaTvis savaluto kursis gamoyeneba ver uzrunvelyofs
gaangariSebis Sedegebis sizustes, radgan oficialuri savaluto kursiT
ar xdeba mSp-Si Semavali yvela saxis operaciis Sefaseba da maTze
gavlenas axdens agreTve iseTi faqtorebi, romelTac ara aqvT pirdapiri
kavSiri warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculobebis
SedarebebTan (magaliTad, kapitalis saerTaSoriso nakadi, valutis
miwodebasa da moTxovnas Soris Tanafardoba da a. S.). garda amisa,
savaluto kursis gamoyeneba, romelic saSualebas gvaZlevs SevafasoT
sxvadasxva qveynis mTliani Sida produqti Sesadaris valutaSi, ar
uzrunvelyofs gansxvavebaTa nivelirebas Sesadari qveynebis fasebis
doneebSi. amitom Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso statistikaSi mSp-is
maCveneblebis Sedareba xorcieldeba valutis e.w. msyidvelobiTi unaris
paritetebis (mup) meSveobiT.
msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi (mup) _ esaa koeficientebi, romlebic
gamosaxaven Tanafardobas qveynebis fasebs Soris. rogorc wesi, mup
saangariSo, statistikuri kategoriaa. is ar gamoiyeneba valutis
gacvlisaTvis, ar gvevlineba realuri ekonomikuri politikis
instrumentad (oficialuri savaluto kursisgan gansxvavebiT), aramed
warmoadgens mSp-is saerTaSoriso SedarebaTa uzrunvelyofis teqnikur
instruments.
77
mup gviCvenebs mocemuli qveynis ra raodenobis valuta unda davxarjoT
sxva qveynis valutis erTeuliT SesaZen (vTqvaT, erT dolarad)
saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze.
garkveuli TvalsazrisiT mup fasebis dinamikis indeqsebis sivrcobrivi
analogiaa: fasebis dinamikuri indeqsebi (ufro zustad, maTi
Sebrunebuli sidideebi, Tu drois periods zrdadobiT aviRebT) zomavs
erTi da imave valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris cvlilebas droSi, mup
sxvadasxva valutis msyidvelobiTi unarebis sxvaobas zomavs
sivrcobrivad. Sesabamisad, mup Taviseburi sivrcobrivi deflatoria. misi
daxmarebiT erovnuli RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi daiyvaneba garkveul
`realur~ fulad sazomamde.
mup-is gamoyeneba mSp-is SedarebebisaTvis erTdroulad ori amocanis
gadaWris saSualebas gvaZlevs: 1) gadavafasoT erovnuli valuta
Sesadar savaluto erTeulebSi da 2) aRmovfxvraT fasebis doneebSi
arsebuli sxvaobis zegavlena.
mup-is daxmarebiT, erovnulidan Sesadaris valutaSi gadaangariSebul
maCveneblebs xSirad `realur moculobebs~ uwodeben. termini `realuri~
gamoiyeneba mSp-is saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis konteqstSi imisaTvis, rom
vaCvenoT gacvliTi savaluto kursis mixedviT gadaangariSebebis
Sedegegebisgan gansxvaveba, romelic `nominalur moculobad~ iwodeba.
mup-is gaangariSeba sakmaod rTulia rogorc Teoriulad, ise
praqtikulad. is moiTxovs fasebis, warmoebuli da gamoyenebuli
produqciis moculobaze monacemTa didi masivis mopovebasa da
damuSavebas. am gaangariSebis safuZvls warmoadgens saqonel-
warmomadgenlebis meTodi
saqonel-warmomadgelebis SerCeva saerTaSoriso
Sedarebebis programisTvis
78
Sedarebebi gaeros saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis CarCoebSi
(gaeros sSp) xorcieldeba saqonel-warmomadgenlebis meTodiT, romlis
arsi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
Sesadarisi qveynebis (vTqvaT, A da B qveynebis) mSp-ebs yofen
ramdenime sasaqonlo jgufad, rasac specialur literaturaSi
`umciresi sasaqonlo jgufebi~ ewodeba, maTi ricxvi ZiriTadad
meryeobs 150-dan 300-mde. umciresi sasaqonlo jgufebi iqmneba
mxolod mSp-s gadasafaseblad Sesadar valutaSi da ekonomikuri
analizis mizniT, SesaZlebelia maTi gaerTianeba ufro farTo
analitikur jgufebSi. amrigad, mTliani Sida produqti, Sedarebis
mizniT, iyofa ZiriTad komponentebad (moxmareba, dagroveba da a.S.),
analizur jgufebad da umcires sasaqonlo jgufebad.
TiToeuli umciresi sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis moinaxeba 4-6 fasiT
identuri an analogiuri saqonel-warmomadgeneli (TiToeul
SemTxvevaSi saqonel-warmomadgenelTa ricxvi damokidebulia maTi
fasebis indeqsis dispersiis sididisgan).
TiToeuli umciresi sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis. saqonel-
warmomadgenlebis fasebs Soris Tanafardobis daxasiaTebis mizniT,
gaiangariSeba fasebis individualuri indeqsebi, (Tu X sasaqonlo
jgufSi Sedis 5 saqonel-warmomadgeneli, aucilebelia
gamoviTvaloT fasebis amdenive individualuri indeqsi).
wina etapis gaangariSebebis Sedegebis mixedviT TiToeuli umciresi
sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis angariSoben fasebis individualuri
indeqsebis saSualo indeqss. amisaTvis gamoiyeneba martivi saSualo
geometriulis formula. am formulis gamoyeneba ganpirobebulia
informaciis ararsebobiT saqonel-warmomadgenelTa wonebis
Sesaxeb, e.i ama Tu im sasaqonlo jgufSi saqonel-warmomadgenlebis
wilis Sesaxeb monacemebi. saSualo geometriulis gamoyeneba
uzrunvelyofs indeqsebis winaSe dasmul mniSvnelovan moTxovnas _
indeqsis sididis damoukideblobas sabaziso qveynis SerCevisagan.
sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, saSualo ariTmetikulis formulis
gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi, Sedarebis Sedegi damokidebuli iqneboda
imaze, mocemuli ori qveynidan (A da B) romels ganvixilavdiT
rogorc sabazisos (ix. cxrili).
79
ganvixiloT fasebis saSualo indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodi X umciresi
sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis:
saqonel-warmomadgen-
lebi
1
2
3
4
5
fasebi A qveyanaSi 2 4 1 5 7
fasebi B qveyanaSi 3 8 3 10 28
fasebis indeqsi,
qveyana A=1
1,5
2
3
2
4
saSualo indeqsi
Ip= 5 2*4*3*2*5,1 =2,4
aseTi wesiT gaangariSebuli fasebis saSualo indeqsi X sasaqonlo
jgufisaTvis mup-is kerZo SemTxvevaa. amis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba mup
analizuri jgufebisaTvis da mSp-is komponentebisaTvis, xolo Semdgom _
mTlianad mSp-saTvis. amisTvis viyenebT paaSesa (1) da laspeiresis (2)
indeqsis tradiciul formulebs:
p
b
bp
p
i
W
WI (1) da
a
apL
pW
WiI
. (2)
sadac pi aris i-uri saqonlis fasebis indeqsia B qveyanaSi A qveyanasTan
SedarebiT;
p
p _ paaSes indeqsi;
L
p _ laspeiresis indeqsi;
Wa _ calkeuli sasaqonlo jgufis wili A qveynis mSp-Si;
Wb _ calkeuli sasaqonlo jgufisPwili B qveynis mSp- Si.
amrigad, paaSesa da laspeiresis formulebis safuZvelze Cven viRebT A
da B qveynisaTvis fasebis or saSualo indeqss. sxva sityvebiT rom
vTqvaT, Cven viRebT mup-is or sidides _ erTi miiReba, roca fasebis
indeqsis SewonvisaTvis viyenebT monacemebs A qveynis mSp-is struqturis
80
Sesaxeb, xolo meore sidide miiReba, roca viyenebT monacemebs B qveynis
mSp-is struqturis Sesaxeb.
magaliTi. davuSvaT, A da B qveynis mTliani Sida produqti Sedgeba 5
sasaqonlo jgufisagan da TiToeuli maTganisaTvis gvaqvs fasebis
saSualo indeqsi:
saqonlis
jgufebi
A qveynis mSp-is
struqtura
B qveynis mSp-is
struqtura
fasebis indeqsi,
qveyana A=1
1 jgufi 10,0 30,0 2,0
2 jgufi 20,0 15,0 1,5
3 jgufi 15,0 5,0 3,0
4 jgufi 25,0 10,0 4,0
5 jgufi 30,0 40,0 4,5
sul 100,0 100,0
amrigad, fasebis saSualo indeqsi Seadgens:
628.2
5.4
40
4
10
3
5
5.1
15
2
30
100
P
pI .
an
.
unda iTqvas, rom praqtikuli miznebisaTvis mouxerxebelia gaangariSebis
ori Sedegi, romlebic TavisTavad Teoriulad gamarTlebuli da
kanonzomieria. amitom indeqsis calsaxa mniSvnelobis misaRebad
gamoiyeneba saSualo geometriulis formula, anu fiSeris indeqsi:
p
L
p
F
p III *
3,3100
30.5,425.0,415.0,320.5,110.0,2
L
pI
81
axla Cven SegviZlia mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebis indeqsi
gavyoT fiSeris fasebis indeqsze da miviRoT saZiebeli Sedegi, e.i. A da B
qveynis mSp-ebis fizikuri moculobebis Tanafardoba:
(mSpB / mSpA) : Fp q
sadac mSpA _ A qveynis mTliani Sida produqtia sakuTar erovnul
valutaSi.
mSpB _ B qveynis mTliani Sida produqti sakuTar valutaSi.
q _ B da A qveynis mSp-s fizikuri moculobis indeqsi.
F
p _ fiSeris fasebis indeqsi.
igive Sedegi SeiZleba miviRoT sxva gziTac: gamoviyenebT ra paaSesa da
laspeiresis fasebis indeqss, orive qveynis mSp-is monacemebis mimarT
sakuTar fasebSi, SeiZleba gamoviangariSoT A qveynis mTliani Sida
produqti B qveynis fasebSi, xolo B qveynis mSp A qveynis fasebSi. am
SemTxvevaSi, Cven vRebulobT fizikuri moculobis or indeqss mocemuli
qveynebis wyvilisaTvis:
Pq
AB / mSpB - B qveynis fasebSi / mSpA - B qveynis fasebSi
qL
AB / mSpB - A qveynis fasebSi / mSpA - A qveynis fasebSi
gamoviyenebT ra fiSeris formulas, SegviZlia gaviangariSoT fizikuri
moculobis saSualo indeqsi, romelic identuri iqneba miRebuli
indeqsisa formulaSi (4):
qP
AB
qL
ABQ // *
aRsaniSnavia, rom rogorc wesi, laspeiresis formulis mixedviT
miRebuli indeqsebi gvaZlevs SedarebiT ufro did sidideebs, vidre
paaSes formuliT miRebuli indeqsebi. es fenomeni cnobilia rogorc
`gerSenkronis efeqti~ (amerikeli mecnieris _ gerSenkronis saxelis
mixedviT, romelmac gamoavlina da aRwera es kanonzomiereba).
82
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis specialistebs Soris damokidebuleba
gerSenkronis efeqtTan araerTgvarovania. erTni Tvlian, rom
`gerSenkronis efeqti~, unda movaciloT gaangariSebis Sedegs, radganac
mas aqvs cnobili uzustobani. am miznisaTvis isini gvTavazoben
indeqsebis iseT formulas, romelSic qveynebi maTi sididis miuxedavad
Tanabari `wonisaa.~ magaliTad, fiSeris formulaSi aRmofxvrilia
`gerSenkronis efeqti~ radgan Sesadari qveynebis maCveneblebi erTi da
imave wonebiTaa mocemuli.
sxva specialistebi Tvlian, rom `gerSenkronis efeqti~ gamosaxavs
movlenebis realur ekonomikur bunebas da indeqsis formulam, romelic
gamoiyeneba Sedarebis dros, ar unda aRmoifxvras es efeqti. isini
gvTavazoben saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis gamoyenebas, romelTa
sidideze sxvadasxva qveyna sxvadasxva gavlenas (magaliTad, maTi mSp-is
sididideze damokidebulebiT) axdens.
ganxilul proceduraSi sapasuxismgeblo etapia saqonlis SerCeva
identuri fasebiT.
ganasxvaveben saqonel-warmomadgenlis SerCevis or ZiriTad princips:
SerCeuli saqonlis reprezentatuloba, e.i. mocemuli qveynis
xarjebis struqturisaTvis maTi damaxasiaTebloba.
partniori qveynebis saqonel-warmomadgenelTan Sesadarisoba.
zog SemTxvevaSi Znelia am ori principis SeTavseba, ramdenadac
reprezentatuli saqoneli SeiZleba ar iyos Sesadarisi, xolo
Sesadarisi saqoneli mocemuli qveynisaTvis aradamaxasiaTebeli iyos.
amitom praqtikaSi sxvadasxva kompromiss mimarTaven.
im SemTxvevaSi, roca ori saqoneli Tvisebrivi maxasiaTeblebiT ar aris
Sesadari, mimarTaven fasebSi Sesworebis Setanis proceduras
xarisxobrivi sxvaobis gasaTvaliswineblad.
83
magaliTi, Tu gvinda SevadaroT fasebi rkinis madnis erT tonaze,
romelic Seicavs rkinis 3%-s A qveyanaSi da 6%-s _ B qveyanaSi, maSin
fasebis Sesadaris fasebad gadasayvanad saWiroa B qveynis fasebi gavyoT
orze, radgan winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, erovnuli fasebis Sedarebam, rkinis
sxvadasxva Semcvelobis madanze SeiZleba araswori warmodgena Segviqmnas
am jgufis saqonlis fasebis realuri Tanafardobis Sesaxeb.
saqonlis fasebze aseTi tipis martivi Sesworebebis gamoyenebis areali
samwuxarod Zalian SezRudulia. ufro rTuli saqonlisaTvis
(avtomanqana, televizori, macivari da a.S.) fasebSi koreqtivebis
Sesatanad, gamoiyeneba regresiuli analizis meTodebi.
regresiuli analizis meTodi gulisxmobs regresiuli gantolebis
Sedgenas, romelSic dadgenilia rTuli kavSirebi saqonlis mniSvnelovan
parametrebsa da maT fasebs Soris. Tumca bevr SemTxvevaSi, saqonel-
warmomadgenlis fasSi Sesworeba xdeba teqnikur-ekonomikuri
parametrebis mcodne, eqspertebTan konsultaciis safuZvelze.
magaliTi. avtomobilebis SemTxvevaSi regresiuli gantoleba amyarebs
kavSirs avtomobilis fassa da iseT parametrebs Soris, rogoricaa _
Zravis simZlavre, benzinis moxmareba yovel 100km. garbenze,
komfortuloba da a.S.
specialur literaturaSi am meTodma miiRo Hgedonuri indeqsis saxeli.
analogiuri saqonel-warmomadgenlis fasebiT SerCevis procesi
gulisxmobs saqonelis detalur aRweras, rac iZleva Sida bazarze
saqonel-warmomadgenelTa identifikaciis saSualebas.
saqonel-warmomadgenelTa aRwera unda moicavdes:
saqonlis kodsa da dasaxelebas.
saqonlis saerTo aRweras (samarko niSani, modeli, damzadebis
adgili da a.S.).
teqnikur parametrebs (zoma, wona, moculoba, simZlavre da a. S.).
saqonlis miznobriv daniSnulebas (misi gamoyenebis sferos).
84
naxats (gamosaxulebas).
saqonel-warmomadgenelTa fasis SerCevisas informaciis mTavari wyaro,
rogorc wesi, aris:
monacemebi samomxmareblo fasebis erovnuli indeqsis, sabiTumo
fasebis indeqsis gaangariSebebidan da a.S..
fasebis specialuri gamokvlevebi (magaliTad, bevr qveyanaSi
samrewvelo daniSnulebis saqonlis fasebze monacemebs
warmoadgenen mewarmeebi, savaWro kompaniebi da a.S.).
katalogebi.
preiskurantebi.
sasaqonlo-warmomadgenelTa Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba saSualo fasebi
mTliani ekonomikisaTvis, rac uzrunvelyofs Sesabamisobas fasebis
indeqssa da eas-Si miRebuli mSp-is Sefasebis meTodebs Soris.
Tu erTi da igive saqoneli mieyideba mosaxleobas sxvadasxva arxis
meSveobiT, sxvadasxva fasiT, saqonel-warmomadgenelTa Sesafaseblad
gaiangariSeba saSualo fasi, romelic Sewonilia Sesabamisi arxebiT
realizebuli saqonlis moculobiT. specialur literaturaSi am
principma miiRo saxelwodeba `kartofili _ es kartofilia”. es imas
niSnavs, rom ama Tu im saqonelze ori qveynis fasebis Tanafardobis
indeqsebis gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi ar miiReba sxvadasxva qveyanaSi
arsebuli savaWro-satransporto daricxvebi (danamatebi).
davuSvaT, A da B qveyanaSi X saqonlis realizacia warmoebs 5 arxiT da
fasebis doneebSi garkveuli diferenciacia arsebobs:
produqciis
miwodebis
arxebi
qveyana
A
qveyana
B
fasebis
indeqsi
A/B (B=1) Qa Pa QaPa Qb Pb QbPb
1-li arxi 20 2 40 30 1 30 2
85
2 arxi 10 4 40 20 2 40 2
3 arxi 40 3 120 40 2 80 1,5
4 arxi 15 5 75 5 2 10 2,5
5 arxi 15 6 90 5 3 15 2,0
sul 100 3,65 365 100 1,75 175 2,1
cxrilidan Cans, rom or qveyanaSi fasebis saerTo indeqsi SeiZleba
gamoangariSebul iqnes ori meTodiT: rogorc yvela arxisaTvis saSualo
fasebis Sefardeba (Ip=3,65:1,75=2,09) an realizaciis calkeuli arxisaTvis
Sesabamisi fasebis Tanafardobis gasaSualoebiT. Tu mocemul
magaliTSi gamoviyenebT saSualo geometriulis formulas, miviRebT p
5 2*5,2*5,1*2*2 =1,97.
praqtikaSi upiratesoba eniWeba pirvel midgomas, romelic Seesabameba
zemoT aRniSnul princips _ `kartofili _ es kartofilia~. Tumca
specialistebi, romlebic akritikeben am meTods, aRniSnaven, rom mis
safuZvels warmoadgens abstrahireba savaWro-satransporto danaxarjebis
doneebSi arsebuli gansxvavebisgan da fasebis indeqsis
gaangariSebisaTvis gvTavazoben fasebis indeqsis gasaSualoebis meTodis
gamoyenebas.
gaangariSebis ganxiluli procedura gamoiyeneba mSp-isa da mup-is
pirdapiri wyviladi Sedarebis dros, e.i. SepirispirebaSi, romelic
ganxorcieldeba ama Tu im qveynebis wyvilisaTvis.
mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologia
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis TeoriaSi miRebulia erTmaneTisgan
ganvasxvaoT pirdapiri wyviladi Sepirispireba da mravalmxrivi
Sepirispireba, romlebic qveynebis garkveuli jgufisaTvis erTdroulad
xorcieldeba.
86
sanam gavecnobiT mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologias,
ganvixiloT saerTaSoriso SedarebebSi gamoyenebuli indeqsebis mimarT
wayenebuli ZiriTadi moTxovnebi, romelTa didi nawili Camoyalibebulia
indeqsebis egreT wodebul aqsiomatur TeoriebSi. es moTxovnebi
formulirebulia logikuri debulebebis saxiT. maT Soris ZiriTadia:
damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom indeqsebis
gamoangariSebisas saindeqso sididis SewonvisaTvis unda gamoviyenoT
Sesadari qveynebis ekonomikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli wonebi. aSS-sa da
saqarTvelos mSp-ebis SedarebisaTvis wonebad aucilebelia
gamoviyenoT aSS-is an saqarTvelos fasebi, an aSS-isa da
saqarTvelos, da ara romelime mesame qveynis saSualo fasebi.
tranzitulobis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom ori qveynisaTvis
Sepirispirebis Sedegebi, romelic miiReba ori qveynis maCveneblebis
pirdapiri Sedarebis gziT, toli unda iyos indeqsisa, romelic
asaxavs am qveynebis maCvenebelTa Tanafardobas arapirdapiri gziT,
mesame qveynis gamoyenebiT. es mesame qveyana asrulebs `Suamavlis~
rols (gadamyvanis rols).
magaliTad, Tuki SedarebaSi monawileobs A, B da D qveyana, maSin A da B
qveynis maCveneblebis Sedarebis indeqsi SeiZleba miviRoT A da B qveynis
maCveneblebis pirdapiri SepirispirebiT da agreTve IA/D indeqsis gayofiT
IB/D indeqsze. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, tranzitulobis moTxovna
SeiZleba ase Caiweros:
DBDABA /// : .
sadac IA/B _ A da B qveynis pirdapiri Sepirispirebis indeqsia;
IA/D _ A da D qveynis pirdapiri Sedarebis indeqsi;
IB/D _ B da D qveynis pirdapiri Sedarebis indeqsi.
tranzitulobis moTxovna Zalian mniSvnelovania mravalmxrivi
SedarebisaTvis da niSnavs imas, rom, garkveuli qveynebis jgufisaTvis
gaangariSebuli, indeqsebi unda iyos mkacrad urTierTSeTanxmebuli da
ar iZleodes sawinaaRmdego Sedegebs.
87
sabaziso qveynis damoukidebeli SerCevis moTxovna _ mniSvnelovani
moTxovna, rogorc pirdapiri ormxrivi, aseve mravalmxrivi
Sedarebebisadmi. am debulebis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom indeqsis
sidide ar unda iyos damokidebuli sabaziso qveynis SerCevaze.
magaliTad, aSS-isa da saqarTvelos mTlian Sida produqts Soris
Sedareba ar unda iyos damokidebuli imaze, indeqsis SemasmenelSi
saqarTvelos indeqsi iqneba, Tu aSS-is indeqsi.
maTematikurad es moTxovna ase Caiwereba:
ABBA // * = 1.
es moTxovna niSnavs, rom indeqsebis namravli, romlebic asaxaven A
qveynis maCveneblebis Sefardebas B qveynis maCveneblebTan da, piriqiT, B
qveynis maCveneblebis Sefardebas A qveynis maCveneblebTan, unda iyos 1-is
toli.
aditiurobis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom indeqsebi, romlebic
miRebulia mSp-is calkeuli komponentebisaTvis, SeTanxmebuli unda
iyos rogorc erTmaneTTan, ise mSp-is indeqsTan mTlianad.
magaliTad, ar unda davuSvaT iseTi mdgomareoba, rodesac A qveynis
moxmarebis indeqsi B qveynis mimarT = 110, dagrovebis = 115, xolo mSp
=120.
es moTxovna gulisxmobs imas, rom A qveynis mSp-is maCvenebeli B qveynis
fasebSi SeiZleba miRebul iqnes A qveynis mSp-is calkeuli elementebis
dajamebiT B qveynis fasebSi (aRsaniSnavia, rom indeqsebis bevri meTodi
da formula saSualebas ar gvaZlevs davakmayofiloT aditiurobis
moTxovna).
faqtoruli sinjis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom fasebis indeqsebis
(msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti) da fizikuri moculobis
indeqsebis namravli Rirebulebis indeqsis toli unda iyos.
88
zemoTqmuli zogierTi moTxovna indeqsebisadmi winaaRmdegobaSi modis
erTmaneTTan. kerZod, damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovna winaaRmdegobaSia
tranzitulobis moTxovnasTan, e.i. is indeqsebi, romlebic SedarebiT
srulad akmayofileben damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas, rogorc wesi,
aratranzitulia.
magaliTad, fiSeris indeqsis formula, romelic akmayofilebs
damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas da romelic saSualebas gvaZlevs
TiToeuli wyvili qveynisaTvis miviRoT erTmniSvnelovani Sedegi, ar
uzrunvelyofs tranzitulobis moTxovnas.
axla ganvixiloT mravalmxrivi Sedarebis meTodebi, romelTa indeqsebma
unda daakmayofilon zemoT naxsenebi moTxovnebi.
mravalmxrivi Sedarebis Tavisebureba mdgomareobs ara mxolod imaSi,
rom is tardeba qveynebis jgufisaTvis, aramed imaSic, rom informacia
qveynebis mier gamoSvebuli da gamoyenebuli produqciis raodenobisa da
fasebis Sesaxeb ganixileba da muSavdeba rogorc erTiani sistema, raTa
miRebul iqnes urTierTdakavSirebuli indeqsebis sistema, romelmac
unda daakmayofilos rigi analizuri xasiaTis moTxovna.
magaliTad, Tu vadarebT A, B, C, D da E qveynebs da maTi maCveneblebi
Seupirispirdeba erTmaneTs, wyviladi Sedarebis safuZvelze, maSin
miviRebT TiToeuli wyvili qveynisaTvis fiSeris indeqsebs _ A da B, C da
D da a.S. aseTi gaangariSebebi ar SeiZleba ganvixiloT rogorc namdvili
mravalmxrivi Sepirispireba da maTi Sedegebi SeiZleba iyos
urTierTsawinaaRmdego. SeiZleba aRmoCndes, rom A>B, B>C, C>D, xolo D>A,
radganac mocemul SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba pirdapiri wyviladi Sedarebis
meTodi, romlis Sedegad miiReba fiSeris indeqsebi da isini, rogorc
ukve aRvniSneT, aratranzitulia.
indeqsebis tranzituloba SeiZleba uzrunvelyofil iqnes mravalmxrivi
Sepirispirebis ekS-is meTodiT (am meTodis dasaxeleba Sedgeba im sami
specialistis gvaris pirveli asoebisagan, romlebmac SeimuSaves es
89
meTodi _ ungreli statistikosebi _ o. eltete da p. keveSi, poloneli
statistikosi b. Sulci).
A da B qveynisaTvis ekS-is indeqsis formulas aqvs aseTi saxe:
ekSA/B = nn
j Bj
Aj
BAF
FF
1
1
2
/
, ,, BAJ
sadac FA/B _ fiSeris indeqsia A da B qveynisaTvis.
FAj _ fiSeris indeqsi A da j qveynisaTvis.
FBj _ fiSeris indeqsi A da j qveynisaTvis.
n _ Sesadari qveynebis ricxvi.
j – A, B, C .... j.
ekS-is formulis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom miRebul iqnes iseTi
indeqsi, romelic daakmayofilebs tranzitulobis moTxovnas da mxolod
mcired iqneba gadaxrili fiSeris indeqsisagan.
SevniSnavT, rom ekS-is formulaSi mocemuli ori wyvilis qveynis (A da B)
fiSeris indeqss wonad aqvs 2. garda amisa, gaangariSebaSi
gaiTvaliswineba mocemuli qveynebis wyvilisaTvis qveyana-Suamavlis
meSveobiT, iribi gziT miRebuli fiSeris indeqsebi (magaliTad, A qveynis
indeqsi B qveynis mimarT SeiZleba miRebul iqnes fiSeris A/C indeqsis
gayofiT fiSeris B/C indeqsze).
amrigad, A da B qveynebisaTvis ekS-is indeqsi _ es aris saSualo indeqsi
A da B qveynisaTvis, romelic miRebulia fiSeris pirdapiri da
arapirdapir gaangariSebuli yvela SesaZlebeli indeqsebisagan.
magaliTad, Tu erTmaneTs Seupirispirdeba oTxi qveyana A, B, C da D, maSin
ekS-s indeqsebs Semdegi saxe eqneba:
ekSA/B = nDBDAcBcABA FFFFF ////
2
/ :.:. ;
ekSA/C = nBCBADCDAcA FFFFF ////
2
/ :.:. ;
90
ekSA/C = nCDCABDBADA FFFFF ////
2
/ :.:. ;
ekSC/D = nBDBCADACDC FFFFF ////
2
/ :.:. .
ekS-is indeqsi akmayofilebs tranzitulobisa da qveynis damoukidebeli
SerCevis moTxovnebs, magram ar akmayofilebs aditiurobis moTxovnas,
rac arsebiTad misi naklia.
ganvixiloT ekS-is gaangariSebis procedura Semdegi monacemebis
mixedviT:
saqonel-
warmomadgenlebi
X sasaqonlo
jgufisaTvis
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
qveynebi fasebi
A 2 6 _ _ 10 _ 1 4
B 12 35 3 5 40 _ _ 18
C 25 50 7 12 _ 10 _ _
D 150 400 _ 100 _ 70 80 _
Tanafardoba fasebSi saqonel-warmomadgenlebze
B/A 6 5,83 _ _ 4 _ _ 4,5
C/A 12,5 8,33 _ _ _ _ _ _
D/A 75 66,67 _ _ _ _ 80 _
C/B 2,08 1,42 2,3 2,4 _ _ _ _
D/B 12,5 11,42 _ 20 _ _ _ _
D/C 6 8 _ 8,3 _ 7 _ _
91
gaviangariSoT qveynebis TiToeuli wyvilisaTvis saSualo indeqsebi.
amisTvis gamoviyenoT saSualo geometriulis formula:
B/A = 4 5,4*4*83,5*6 =5,009; C/A = 33,8*5,12 = 10,204;
D/A = 73,682; C/B = 2,009 ; D/B = 14,186; D/C = 7,267.
miRebuli indeqsebi aratranzitulia. magaliTad, indeqsi, romelic
miRebulia A da B qveynis maCveneblebis SepirispirebiT, ar utoldeba
arapirdapiri gziT miRebuli indeqss C qveyana-Suamavlis meSveobiT:
B/A= BCAC /:/ , ekSB/A = 078,5009,2
204,10 >5,009.
rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, tranzitulobis moTxovnas akmayofilebs ekS-is
formuliT gaangariSebuli indeqsebi.
magaliTad, es indeqsi, gankuTvnili A da B qveynisaTvis, cxrilSi
mocemuli monacemebis safuZvelze, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT Semdegi saxiT:
ekSB/A = 4 2186,14/682,73*009,2/204,10*009,5 =5,072.
SevniSnavT, rom am SemTxvevaSi fesvis qveS gamoyenebulia ara fiSeris
indeqsebi, aramed saSualo geometriulebi.
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis praqtikaSi farTod gamoiyeneba, giri-
kamisis meTodi. am formulas aqvs Semdegi saxe:
i
m
j
ijm
j j
ij
qij
q
R
p
1
1
. ni ...1 .
n
i
iji
n
i
ij
j
qP
qijp
R
1
1 ,...1 mj
sadac Rj – j qveynis valutis mup im valutasTan mimarTebiT, romelic
miRebulia bazad.
iP_
_ i - ri saqonlis saSualo saerTaSoriso fasi.
Pij _ i saqonlis fasi j qveyanaSi.
92
qij _ i saqonlis raodenoba j qveyanaSi.
n _ saqonlis ricxvi.
m _ qveynebis ricxvi.
amrigad, giri-kamisis meTodi, gvaZlevs wrfivi gantolebis sistemis
amoxsnis saSualebas, ris Sedegadac erTdroulad ganisazRvreba mup (Rj )
da saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebi .)(_
iP yvela qveynis maCveneblis
gadayvana saerTaSoriso fasebSi saSualebas gvaZlevs miviRoT iseTi
indeqsebi, romlebic tranzituli, aditiuria da akmayofilebs sabaziso
qveynis arCevis damoukideblobis moTxovnas. Tumca giri-kamisis indeqsi
ar akmayofilebs damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas.
mravalmxrivi Sedarebis kidev erTi meTodia uolSis meTodi:
BA /
_
n
i
M
BiAiR
1
/ ,
sadac RiA/B _ aris valutis mup calkeuli i sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis (igi
gamoiangariSeba rogorc martivi saSualo geometriuli A da B qveynis
saqonel-warmomadgenlebze fasebis Sefardebidan).
Mi _ i sasaqonlo jgufis wili makroagregatSi, magaliTad, mSp-Si. (Mi
gaiangariSeba rogorc SepirispirebaSi monawile yvela qveynis mocemuli
sasaqonlo jgufis wilis saSualo magaliTad, Tu A, B, C, D qveynebSi
xorcis produqtebze xarjebis wili Seadgens 5, 6 da 7-s, maSin mocemuli
sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis M=6).
avxsnaT uolSis indeqsis gaangariSebis procedura: dauSvaT, rom
SedarebaSi monawileobs sami qveyana A, B, C da yvela qveynis mSp Sedgeba
sami sasaqonlo jgufisagan. am sasaqonlo jgufebis mup-is indeqsebi da
maT xvedriT wilebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi:
sasaqonl
ojgufebi
AQqveyni
sstruq
BQqveyni
sstruq
CQqveyni
sstruq
A/BFfasebi
sindeqsebi
C/BFfasebi
sindeqsebi
saSual
ostruq
93
tura tura tura tura
I 20,0 40,0 60,0 1,5 4,0 40,0
II 30,0 40,0 20,0 2,0 6,0 30.0
III 50,0 20,0 20,0 3,0 5,0 30,0
jami 100,0 100,0 100,0 _ _ 100,0
uolSis indeqsis safuZvelze A, B, C qveynebis fasebis saSualo indeqsebis
(mup) misaRebad vaxdenT Semdeg gaangariSebebs:
;01,20,3*0,2*5,1 3,03,04,0
/ BAI .83,40,5*0,6*0,4 3,03,04,0
/ BCI
uolSis indeqsebi tranzitulia da es aris misi Rirseba. isini
akmayofileben sabaziso qveynis SerCevisgan damoukideblobis moTxovnas,
Tumca ar akmayofileben aditiurobis moTxovnas.
saerTaSoriso mravalmxrivi Sedarebis meTodia agreTve jirardis
meTodi, romelic efuZneba saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis gamoyenebas.
(isini gaiangariSeba saSualo erovnuli fasebisdan martivi saSualo
geometriulis formuliT). am meTodiT miRebuli indeqsebi akmayofilebs
tranzitulobis, aditiurobisa da sabaziso qveynis SerCevisgan
damoukideblobis moTxovnebs. jirardis formulis gamoyeneba gvaZlevs
Sepirispirebis Sedegebze `gerSenkronis efeqtis~ gavlenis Tavidan
acilebis saSualebas. magram saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis ekonomikuri
Sinaarsi, gaangariSebuli jirardis formuliT, bundovania. miuxedavad
amisa, garkveuli periodis manZilze jirardis formulas evrostati
iyenebda evropuli qveynebis mSp-sa da mup-is Sesadareblad.
zogierT SemTxvevaSi mravalmxrivi Sepirispirebisas gamoiyeneba
centraluri qveynis meTodi. yvela qveynis mSp-is maCveneblebi
Seupirispirdeba erTi qveynis mSp-s, romelic miRebulia sabazisod
(centralurad). am SemTxvevaSi nebismieri wyvili qveynis indeqsebi
(mxolod im wyvili qveynebis gamoklebiT, romlidanac erT-erTi qveyana
94
ar gvevlineba centralur qveynad), gaiangariSeba arapirdapiri gziT am
qveynebis maCveneblebis indeqsebis centraluri qveynis maCveneblebTan
Sepirispirebis daxmarebiT.
magaliTad, Tuki SepirispirebaSi monawileobs oTxi qveyana _ A, B, C da D,
xolo centralur qveynad iTvleba A qveyana, maSin indeqsi, romelic
axasiaTebs B da C qveynis Sepirispirebis maCveneblebs, gamoiangariSeba
ase:
IB/C = IB/A : IC/A.
aseTi meTodiT miRebuli indeqsebi tranzitulia, magram tranzituloba
miiRweva garkveul wilad, meqanikuri gziT. es niSnavs imas, rom
arapirdapiri gziT gaangariSebuli indeqsi (IB/C) iqneba gansxvavebuli B da
C qveynis pirdapiri SepirispirebiT gamoangariSebuli indeqsisagan (IB/C).
garda amisa, centraluri qveynis meTodiT gaangariSebuli indeqsi ar
akmayofilebs centraluri qveynis SerCevis damoukideblobis moTxovnas.
es niSnavs imas, rom, Tu centralur qveynad arCeul iqneboda D qveyana da
ara A qveyana, maSin yvela sxva qveynis maCvenebelTa Tanafardoba
sxvanairi iqneboda. amasTan dakavSirebiT centraluri qveynis meTodi,
romelic farTod gamoiyeneba saerTaSoriso SepirispirebaSi, ar
ganixileba mravalmxrivi Sepirispirebis srulyofil meTodad. misi
gamoyeneba xdeba, ZiriTadad, sxvadasxva praqtikul SemTxvevaSi _
amomwuravi informaciis arqonis, resursebis ekonomiis da a. S. dros.
leqcia 6. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis arsi da struqtura 2. sagareo vaWrobis statistikis organizacia, ZiriTadi cnebebi da
maCvenebelTa sistema 3. sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da
maTi gaangariSebis meTodika 4. Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis maCveneblebi 5. saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo birJebi da maTi daxasiaTeba 6. saerTaSoriso koniunqturuli statistika
95
sagareoekonomikuri kavSirebis arsi da struqtura
sagareo ekonomikuri kavSiri moicavs sagareo ekonomikur saqmianobas da
sagareo vaWrobas.
sagareoekonomikuri saqminobas gaaCnia rTuli da istoriulad
ganviTarebadi xasiaTi, rac ganpirobebulia im formebis mravalsaxeobiT,
romliTac is xorcieldeba. am dros es mravelsaxeoba damokidebulia
misi istoriuli ganviTarebis doneze.
Tanamedrove sagareoekonomikuri saqmianoba xorcieldeba iseT ZiriTad
formebSi, rogoricaa sagareo vaWroba, saerTaSoriso sawarmoo
kooperacia, saerTaSoriso sainvesticio TanamSromloba, saerTaSoriso
samecniero-teqnikuri TanamSromloba, savaluto-safinanso operaciebi,
saerTaSoriso dakrediteba. mocemuli formebi dakavSirebulia
erTmaneTTan, amdenad TiToeulis ganviTareba moqmedebs danarCenze.
sagareoekonomikuri saqmianobis struqturaSi ganskuTrebuli adgili
ukavia sagareo vaWrobas. is ara mxolod martivi, istoriulad pirveli,
aramed yvelaze dinamiurad ganviTarebadi formaa, sagareo vaWrobis
roli imdend didia, rom mas xSird aigiveben mTlian sagareoekonomikur
saqmianobasTan.
sagareoekonomikur saqmianobas miekuTvneba:
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti da importi;
Sromis saerTaSoriso kooperacia;
qveynis rezidentebis erToblivi samewarmeo saqmianoba
ararezidentebTan;
samuSao Zalis transsazRvriTi moZraoba;
saerTaSoriso turizmi;
sagareo ekonomikuri satransporto, sadazRvevo, sakredito da sxva
operaciebi.
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sagareoekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebi erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi
xasiaTdeba seqtori ,,danarCeni msoflios” angariSebSi. eas-is 1993 wlis
variantSi am seqtorisaTvis gamoyofilia Semdegi angariSebi:
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo angariSi;
pirveladi Semosavlebisa da mimdinare transferebis angariSi;
kapitalTan operaciebis sagareo angariSi;
finansuri angariSi;
aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis angariSi;
gadafasebis angariSi;
aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis sagareo angariSi.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo angariSi axasiaTebs saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis moZraobas qveynebs Soris. am angariSSi ganisazRvreba
damabalansebeli muxli ,,saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo balansi”.
balansi SeiZleba iyos rogorc dadebiTi aseve uaryofiTi. eqsportis
importze gadametebisas saldo mocemuli qveynisaTvis iqneba dadebiTi,
e.i. xelsayreli.
pirveladi Semosavlebisa da mimdinare transferebis angariSi axasiaTebs
pirveladi Semosavlebis formirebas da mis ganawilebas sxva qveynebTan
mimarTebiT. praqtikulad, is moicavs Sida ekonomikis sam angariSs:
Semosavlebis formirebis angariSs;
pirveladi Semosavlebis formirebis angariSs;
pirveladi Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSs.
am angariSis damabalansebeli muxlia mimdinare sagareo balansi.
dadebiTi balansi asaxavs msoflios danarCen qveynebTan mimarTebiT
mimdinare operaciebis siWarbis sidides, xolo uaryofiTi _ deficits.
kapitalTan operaciebis sagareo angariSi moicavs qveynebs Soris
mimarTebiT kapitaluri transferebisa da araaRdgeniTi, arafinansuri
aqtivebis aRricxvis operaciebs. angariSSi damabalansebel muxls
ewodeba ,,wminda dakrediteba an wminda sesxeba”.am muxlis mixedviT
dadebiTi Sedegi axasiaTebs msoflios danarCeni qveynebidan miRebuli
97
sesxebis Tanxas, xolo uaryofiTi _ mocemuli qveynis mier sxva
qveynebisaTvis gamoyofil kreditebs.
finansur angariSze aisaxeba finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis
moZraoba rezidentebisagan ararezidentebisken da piriqiT. sagareo
finansur angariSze asaxuli maCveneblebi Sida ekonomikis finansuri
angariSis maCvenebelebis identuria.
aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis angariSi asaxavs
sazRvargareT ganlagebuli rezidentebis aqtivebSi cvlilebebs
(arakompensirebuli konfiskaciebi, Camowerili uimedo valebi,
cvlilebebi klasifikaciebSi da struqturaSi). am angariSSi
damabalansebel muxls ewodeba ,,cvlilebebi sakuTar kapitalSi
aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis Sedegad.
gadafasebis angariSi asaxavs cvlilebas aqtivebSi gamowveuls savaluto
kursebisa da fasebis cvlilebiT. masSi aisaxeba holdinguri mogebis sami
saxeoba: nominaluri holdinguri mogeba; neitraluri holdinguri
mogeba;realuri holdinguri mogeba. am angariSSi ganisazRvreba
damabalansebeli muxli _ ,,cvlilebebi sakuTar kapitalSi nominaluri
holdinguri mogebis (zaralis) Sedegad”.
aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis sagareo angariSi Sedgeba sami
balansisagan:
aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis dasawyisisaTvis;
aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis ganmavlobaSi;
aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis bolosaTvis.
am angariSSi ganisazRvreba damabalansebeli muxli ,,cvlileba sakuTar
kapitalSi”, rogorc sxvaoba aqtivebSi cvlilebebsa da valdebulebeSi
cvlilebebs Soris.
yvela sagareo agariSis Tavisebureba aris is, rom resursebi da
gamoyeneba aisaxema ,,danarCeni msflios” TvalsazrisiT, e.i. sxva yveynebis.
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sagareoekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika miekuTvneba dargobrivi
statistikebis ganyofilebas.
sagareo vaWrobis statistikis organizacia, ZiriTadi
cnebebi da maCvenebelTa sistema
sagareo vaWrobis statistka axasiaTebs saqonlis eqsportisa da
importis moculobas, maT dinamikas, geografiul ganlagebas, sasaqonlo
Semadgenlobas, msoflio vaWrobaSi monawileobas.
vaWrobis statistikuri dakvirvebis obieqtia saqoneli, romelic sabaJo
procedurebis wesebis Sesabamisad gadakveTavs qveynis saxelmwifo
sazRvars.
msoflio statistikur praqtikaSi saqoneli, romelic eqvemdebareba
sabaJo damuSavebas miekuTvneba xilvad saqonlTa kategorias. xilvadi
saqonliT sagareo vaWrrobis statistika aris sagareo ekonomikuri
kavSiris statistikis Semadgeneli nawili.
eqsportSi (importi) Sedis saqoneli, romelTa Semotana (gatana) zrdis an
amcirebs qveynis materialur resursebs:
saqoneli nayidi (gayiduli) mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze da
sazRvargareT organizebul bazrobebze da gamofenebze;
saqoneli, miwodebuli gaero_s teqnikuri daxmarebis fondis
xarjze, usasyidlo daxmarebis, naCuqrobis saxiT;
aramonetaruli oqro da vercxli, romelic ar gamodis
sagadasxdelo saSualebebis saxiT;
samxedro daniSnulebis saqoneli;
eleqtroenergia, wyali, saqonlis miwodeba milsadenebiT;
reeqsportuli saqoneli qveyanaSi SemotaniT;
Semotanili (gatanili) kino da tele-filmebi, licenziis CaTvliT;
mimoqcevaSi ar myofi fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi;
saqoneli Semotanili (gatanili), maTi gadamuSavebis mizniT;
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piradi xasiaTis safosto gzavnilebi;
CamorTmeuli (konfsikacia) importuli saqoneli.
saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistikisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi
Tavisebureba:
statistika aRricxas mxolod im saqonelsa da momsaxurebas,
romelic gadakveTavs sabaJo sazRvars;
statistika aRricxavs saqonlis moZraobas komerciul da
arakomerciul safuZvelze (magaliTad, qveynis mier miRebuli
humanitaruli daxmareba CairTveba importSi, xolo gacemuli _
eqsportSi) sabaJo sazRvris gavliT.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi vaWroba iyofa saerTo da specialurze. saerTo
vaWroba warmoadgens yvela komerciuli operaciebis jams. specialuri
vaWroba axasiaTebs Sida moxmarebisaTvis gankuTvnili importis
Rirebulebas, da eqsportirebuli samamulo warmoebis saqonlis
Rirebulebas.
msoflio vaWrobis regulirebis saerTaSoriso ekonomikur organizaciebs
miekuTvnebian:
vaWrobis saerTaSoriso organizacia _ gaeros specializebuli
dawesebuleba. man moqmedeba daiwyo 1995 wels da misi saqmianobis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze
daSvebis uzrunvelyofa.
gaeros ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis konferencia. is Seiqmna gaeros
generaluri asableis rezoluciis Tanaxmad 1964 wels gaeros
mudmivi specialuri organos saxiT. konferenciis pirveli sesia
Catarda JenevaSi;
saerTaSoriso savaWro centri Seiqmna 1964 wels vaWobisa da
tarifebis generaluri SeTanxmebis wevr qveynebis gadawyvetilebiT.
ministrTa konferencia _ saerTaSoriso organo damtkicebuli 1995
wels. konferenciis mowveva xdeba or weliwadSi erTxel.
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amJamad gaeros CarCoebSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikis ZiriTad
samuSaos asrulebs 1960 wels Seqmnili saerTaSoriso vaWrobis
statistikis centri. is axorcielebs qveynebis sagareo vaWrobaze,
sasaqonlo da teritoril aspeqtSi, monacemebis mopovebis, damuSavebisa
da publikaciis yvela samuSaos. es centri funqcionirebs, rogorc
damoukidebeli organizacia, magram mWidro kavSiri aqvs gaeros sxva
organoebTan, da uwinaresad gaeros ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis
konferenciasTan.
sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis maxasiaTebeli
maCveneblebi da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika
sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba
maCvenebelTa sistema, romelSic Sedis Semdegi maCveneblebi:
1. saqonlis eqsporti;
2. saqonlis reeqsporti;
3. saqonlis importi;
4. saqonlis reimporti;
5. sagareo vaWrobis brunva;
6. sagareo vaWrobis saldo;
7. msoflio eqsporti;
8. msoflio importi;
9. msoflio saqonelbrunva;
10. msoflo vaWrobis saldo.
saqonlis eqsporti. saqonlis eqsportSi igulisxmeba qveynidan samamulo
warmoebis, moyvanili saqonlis, an mopovebuli mTamadneulis gatana.
samamulo warmoebis saqonels miekuTvneba aseve qveyanaSi Semotanili
ucxouri warmoSobis saqoneli, romelic iqna arsebiTad gadamuSavebuli,
ris Sedegad Seicvala misi ZiriTadi Tvisobivi an teqnikuri
daxasiaTebebi. am elementebis jami Sedagens specialur eqsports.
saqonlis reeqsporti _ sxva qveynebidan adre importirebuli saqonlis
gayidva sazRvargareT.
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saqonlis importi _ sazRvargareTidan ucxouri warmoSobis saqonlis
Semotana. Aaq Sedis: Sida moxmarebis an gadamuSavebis mizniT Semotanili
saqoneli; sabaJo kontrolis qveS gadasamuSaveblad Semotanili
saqoneli; miweril sabaJo sawyobebSi gadasamuSaveblad Semotanili
saqoneli.
saqonlis reimporti _ sazRvargareTidan im samamulo saqonlis ukan
Semotana, romelic ar daeqvemdebara gadamuSavebas (msgavsi SeiZleba
moxdes kontraqtis romelime pirobis darRvevis mizeziT).
eqsportis moculoba, struqtura da asortimenti damokidebulia qveynis
savaluto rezervebsa da eqportis amonagebze.
qveynis eqsportSi da importSi Sedis aseve saqoneli romlis Semotana da
gatana xorcieldeba arakomerciul safuzvelze (usasyidlo daxmarebis
an naCyqrobis formiT).
sagareo vaWrobis brunva (sagareo vaWrobis saerTo saqonelbrunva). is
qveynis eqsportisa da importis jamis tolia.
sagareo vaWrobis saldo _ is eqsportis Rirebulebisa da importis
Rerebulebas Soris sxvaobaa. sagareo vaWrobis saldo SeiZleba iyos
aqtiuri an pasiuri. Paqtiuri saldos dros eqsporti Warbobs imports,
pasiurisas _ importi Warbobs eqsports. toloba eqsportisa da importis
Rirebulebebs Soris atarebs neto-balansis saxelwodebas.
msoflio eqsporti _ yvela qveynis eqsportis jami.
msoflio importi _ yvela qveynis importis jami.
RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi msoflio eqsporti da msoflio importi
erTmaneTis toli araa. es ganpirobebulia Semdegi mizeziT:
eqsportisa da importis aRricxvis drois dacilebulobiT (A
qveyanam dekembris bolos gaagzavna Tavisi saqoneli B qveyanaSi, B
qveyanam miiRo is momdevno wlis ianvrSi. maSasadame, es saqoneli A
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qveyanis mier iqneba eqsportis moculobaSi CarTuli dekemberSi,
xolo B qveyanis mier _ importis moculobaSi ianvarSi);
RirebulebiT SefasebebSi gansxvavebebiT (eqsportis Sefaseba xdeba
FOB fasiT, importis _ CIF fasiT). F
FOB fasi moicavs:
saqonlis sakontraqto Rirebulebas;
xarjebs dakavSirebuls saqonlis gemis bortze mitanasTan;
saqonlis datvirTvas;
saeqsporto baJs.
CIF fasi moicavs Semdeg elementebs:
saqonlis Rirebulebas;
saqonlis dazRvevis xarjebs;
sazRvramde transportirebis xarjebs (fraxts).
msoflio saqonelbrunva (msoflio vaWrobis saerTo moculoba) _ esaa
msoflios yvela qveynis eqsportis jami (importis gareSe). misi
gaangariSebis aseTi wesi aixsneba imiT, rom saqonlis eqsporti yvela
qveynidan Seesatyviseba am qveynebSi saqonlis imports.
CamoTvlili absoluturi maCveneblebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba rigi
Sefardebuli maCvenebli.
eqsportuli kvota = calkeuli saqonlis eqsporti/am saqonlis warmoebis
moculoba.
amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota gamoiyeneba eqsportuli
operaciebis regulirebisaTvis, e.i. saqonlis gatanaze kontrolisaTvis.
eqsportuli kvota = qveynis eqsporti/ msoflio saqonelbrunva.
amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota axasiaTebs qveynis wils
msoflio vaWrobaSi.
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eqsportuli kvota = qveynis eqsporti/ qveynis mSp.
amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota axasiaTebs eqsportis
mniSvnelobas qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi.
eqsportuli kvota = calkeuli saqonlis importi/mocemuli saqonlis
warmoebis moculoba.
mocemuli kvota SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes, rogorc importis
SezRudvis sazomi Sida bazris dasacavad.
eqsportuli kvota = importis Rirebuleba/ mSp.
es kvota axasiaTebs importis mniSvnelobas qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi.
maSasadame termini ,,kvota” sagareo vaWrobaSi gamoiyeneba sami
mniSvnelobiT:
1. rogorc saqonlis Semotanisa da gatanis raodenobrivi SezRudvis
meTodi;
2. rogorc msoflio vaWrobaSi qveynis wilis maxasiaTebeli
maCvenebeli;
3. rogorc qveynis ekonomikisaTvis eqsportisa da importis
mniSvnelobis maCvenebeli.
importiT eqsportis uzrunvelyofis koeficienti = qveynis eqsporti/
qveynis importi.
Tu es maCvenebeli 1-ze metia, maSin amonagebi mTlianad faravs saWiro
saqonelis importze qveynis xarjebs da arezervebs valutis nawils.
warmoebidan eqsportis elastikurobis koeficienti = ,x
y
sadac y aris
eqsportis matebis tempi %=Si; x _ warmoebis matebis tempi %=Si;
is SeiZleba gaangariSdes mTlianad eqsportirebuli saqonlis mixedviT
(RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi) an eqsportirebuli saqonlis calkeuli
saxeobebis mixedviT (naturalur gamosaxulebaSi).
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elstikurobis koeficienti (magaliTad calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT)
uCvenebs Tu, ramdeni procentiT gaizarda mocemuli saqonlis eqsporti
misi warmoebis erTi procentiT gadidebisas.
msoflo vaWrobis saldo esaa sxvaoba msoflio eqsportisa da importis
jamebs Soris. is yovelTvis uaryofiTia im mizeziT, rom eqsporti
aRiricxeba FOB fasebiT, xolo importi _ CIF fasebiT. CIF metia FOB-ze
fraxtisa da dazRvevis RirebulebiT.
saerTaSoriso SedarebisaTvis yvelaze gamoyenebadia sagareo vaWrobis
brunvis moculobis naturaluri maCveneblebi.
msoflio vaWrobaSi brunvadi saqonlis umetesoba gaizomeba wonis
erTeulebSi: tona, centneri, kilogrami, inglisuri funti. es iZleva,
sxvadsxva qveyanaSi erTi da igive saqonlis mixedviT gamoyenebuli
sazomi erTeulebis arsebiTi gansxvavebebisas, erTgvarovani informaciis
miRebis saSualebas.
am dros saqoneli SeiZleba aRiricxos: bruto woniT (saqonlis wona
gare da Siga tariT); neto woniT (saqonlis wona gare da Siga taris
gareSe, Tumca uaxloesi Sida SefuTva, romelic gadadis momxmarebelTan
saqonelTan erTad, aRiricxeba neto wonaSi).
neto wona yvelaze misaRebia ekonomikuri analizisaTvis da sxvadasxva
qveynisTis erTi da igive saqonlis gayidvebis Sepirispirebis
gansaxorcieleblad, xolo bruto wona gadazidvebis saerTo moculobis
analizisas.
realizebuli saqonlis raodenobrivi aRricxva naturalur
gamosaxulebaSi saWiroa:
sxvadasxva balansis Sedarebisas;
sagareo vaWrobis fasebis indeqsebis gasangariSeblad;
saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis.
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garda wonis gazomvis erTeulebisa eqsportirebuli da importirebuli
saqonlis aRricxva warmoebs, mxolod calkeuli saqonlisTvis
damaxasiaTebel, gazomvis specifiur erTeulebSi – danadgari – calebSi,
xe-tyis masala _ kubur metrSi da a.S.
gazomvis erTeulebi, romelSic unda aRiricxos konkretuli saqoneli
miTiTebulia sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo
nomenklaturaSi.
Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis maCveneblebi
sagareo vaWrobis brunvis moculoba damokidebulia Sromis
saerTaSoriso danawilebaze. mis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba Semdegi
maCveneblebi:
1. Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis dinamikis koeficienti =
eqsportis dinamikis indeqsi/warmoebis moculobis dinamikis
indeqsTan.
2. saeqsporto specializaciis koeficienti = qveynis eqsportis
saerTo moculobaSi calkeuli saqonlis eqsportis wili/am
saqonlis msoflio eqsportis wili msoflio eqsportis saerTo
moculobaSi.
saeqsporto specializaciis koeficienti uCvenebs, Tu ramden jer
aRemateba romelime saxeobis saqonlis eqsportSi mocemuli qveynis wili
am saqonlis wils msoflio eqsportSi.
Tu mocemuli maCvenebeli 1-ze metia, es metyvelebs imaze, rom mocemuli
qveyana specializdeba msoflio meurnebaSi am saqonlis warmoebaze da
gayidvaze. ramdenad is maRalia, imdenad didia specializaciis done.
3. diversifikaciis koeficienti = qveynis eqsportis saerTo
moculobaSi saqonlis eqsportis wili _ msoflio eqsportis
saerTo moculobaSi saqonlis msoflio eqsportis wili.
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es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs qveynis CarTulobas msoflio vaWrobaSi da
SeiZleba varirebdes 0-dan 1-mde. Tu misi zoma uaxlovdeba 1-s, maSin
SeiZleba iTqvas, rom qveyana specializdeba mocemuli saqonlis
warmoebaze. qveynis mier eqsportirebuli saqonlis nomenklaturis
gafarToebis SemTxvevaSi diversifikaciis koeficienti dauaxlovdeba 0-s.
4. qveynis wili msoflio vaWrobaSi = qveynis sagareo vaWrobis
saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculoba/msoflio saqonelbrunvis saerTo
moculoba.
es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs qveynis monawileobas msoflio ekonomikaSi.
5. sagareo savaWro brunvis moculoba erT sul mosaxleze = qveynis
sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculoba/mosaxleobis
saSualo ricxovnobasTan
eqsportisa da importis struqtura SeiZleba Seswavlili iqnes ori
mimarTulebiT:
rogorc sasaqonlo struqtura;
rogorc geografiuli struqtura.
sasaqonlo struqtura esaa yoveli saqonlis, TiToeuli sasaqonlo
poziciis wili eqsportisa da importis moculobaSi.
eqsportis sasaqonlo struqtura asaxavs msoflio bazris koniunqturas,
e.i. msoflio bazarze mocemuli qveynis saqonelze moTxovnas. eqsportis
struqturis analizisas mniSvnelovania sxvadsxva qveynebSi yvelaze
mniSvnelovani saeqsporto saqonlis xvedriTi wonebis Sedareba.
ganviTarebul qveynebSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani saqonlis xvedriTi wona
ar aRemateba 10-20%. TiToeuli qveynis eqsportis da importis sasaqonlo
struqtura damokidebulia msoflio bazaris fasebze da savaluto
rezervebze.
eqsportis da importis sasaqonlo struqturis analizTan erTad aseve
Seiswavleba maTi geografiuli struqtura.
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geografiuli struqtura _ esaa calkeuli qveynebis, qveynebis jgufebis,
kontinentebis wili eqsportisa da importis moculobaSi.
geografiuli struqturis Seswavlisas yvela qveyana socialur-
ekonomikuri ganviTarebis donis mixedviT iyofa sam jgufad:
qveynebi ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikiT;
qveynebi ganviTarebadi ekonomikiT;
qveynebi gardamavali ekonomikiT.
sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli struqtura iZleva saSualebas
gaanalizdes:
qveynebis sagareo ekonomikur kavSirebSi maTi orientacia;
qveynis sagareo vaWrobis wili;
qveynebi da qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT eqsportisa da importis
ganviTarebis done da SesaZleblobebi;
Sromis saerTaSori danawilebaSi calkeuli qveynis monawileobis
done.
saqonlis eqsporisa da importis geografiuli ganawileba xorcieldeba
qveynebis mixedviT:
warmoebis (warmoSobis) qveyana _ momxmarebeli (daniSnulebis)
qveyana;
gagzavnis qveyana _ miwodebis qveyana;
gayidvis qveyana _ yidvis qveyana.
es dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom sagareo vaWrobaSi brunvadi saqoneli
SeiZleba iqnes nayidi da gayiduli ramdenime jer.
pirvel SemTxvevaSi importosa da eqsportis geografiuli ganawileba
xorcieldeba qveynebis mixedviT warmoSobisa da moxmarebis niSnis
Sesabamisad.
daniSnulebis M(momxmarebeli) qveyana _ qveyana, romelic gagzavnis
momentSi cnobilia, rogorc bolo yveyana, romelSic saqoneli
gankuTvnilia moxmarebis, gamoyenebis an Semdgomi gadamuSavebisaTvis.
108
warmoSobis (warmoebis) qveyana _ qveyana, romelSic saqoneli
warmoebulia an gadamuSavebulia moyvanilia s/m produqtebi, mopovebulia
mTamadneuli, xolo mza nakeTobibi warmoebulia mTlianad an
nawilobriv. im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac nakeTobibi warmoebulia
nawilobriv, maSin warmoSobis qveynad miiCneva qveyana romelSic
saqonelma gaiaraadamuSavebis bolo etapi.
gayidvis qveyana _ yidvis qveyana _ qveyana, romlis teritoriaze
mdebareobs saqonlis myidveli an gamyidveli firma an organizacia,
miuxedavad misi erovnuli kuTvnilebisa.
specialuri miznebisaTvis Seiswavleba eqsportisa da importis
struqtura satransporto gadazidvebis saxeobebis mixedviT: saxmeleTo,
sazRvao, sahaero.
eqsportisa da importis geografiuli mimarTuloba Seiswavleba, aseve E
Semdeg aspeqtSi:
qveyana _ saqoneli (qveynebis CaminaTvali, romlisgan nayidia an
romlebzec, TiToeuli poziciis mixedviT, gaiyida saqoneli);
saqoneli _ qveyana (TiToeul yveyanasTan saqonelgacvlis sruli
nomenklatura).
es monacemebi iZleva, rogorc geografiul aseve sasaqonlo aspeqtSi,
struqturuli cvlilebebis analizirebis saSualebas.
saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo birJebi da maTi daxasiaTeba
sabazro ekonomikis mimoqcevis sferos erT-erTi ZiriTadi elementia
sasaqonlo birJa. sasaqonlo birJa aris masobrivi saqonliT sabiTumo
vaWrobis organizaciuli forma. es aris iuridiuli an fizikuri pirebis
nebayoflobiTi gaerTianeba sajaro vaWrobisaTvis gansazRvrul adgilsa
da gansazRvrul droSi.
sasaqonlo birJis ZiriTadi funqciebia:
109
birJis meSveobiT sarealizacio saqonlis standartebis SemuSaveba;
yidva-gayidvis garigebebis mixedviT tipuri kontraqtebis paketis
SemuSaveba;
birJaze ralizebad saqonelze fasebis kotireba (sabirJo vaWrobis
wesiT realizebadi saqonlis fasebis fiqsacia, da gansazRvruli
periodis ganmavlobaSi sabirJo garigebebis mixedviT saSualo
fasebis gamoyvana);
msyidvelobiTi moTxovnis Seswavla da prognozireba;
gacvlis proporciebisa da fasebis stabilizaciisaTvis pirobebis
Seqmna;
urTierTxelsayrelobas dafuZvebuli saqonelgacvliTi
operaciebis organizacia, realuri moTxovnisa da miwodebis
gaTvaliswinebiT;
informaciuli saqmianoba (sabirJo vaWrobis monawilebisaTvis da
sxva daintreresebul pirTaTvis komerciuli da birJaze
realizebad saqonelze sxva informaciis miwodeba).
sasaqonlo birJebi klasificirdeba Semdegi niSnebis mixedviT:
1. saqmianobis xasiaTis mixedviT, e.i. daniSnulebis mixedviT:
specializebuli, romlebic specializdeba realuri saqonlis
romelime saxeobaze: yava, Saqari, kakao, bamba, navTobi, liToni
da a.S. (londonis bambis birJa).
universaluri, romlebic axorcieleben ara mxolod operaciebs
saqonliT, aramed faseulobebiT, romlebic Cveulebrivi gagebiT
ar arian saqoneli _ valutiT, ipoTekiT fasiani qaRaldebiT,
fraxtuli kontraqtebiT da a.S. (niu-iorkis safondo birJa).
2. sabirJo vaWrobaze damTvalierebelTa doniT:
Ria (vaWrobaSi, garda brokerebisa monawileobas Rebuloben
damTvaliereblebi;
daxuruli (vaWrobaSi monawileobas Rebuloben mxolod sabirJo
Suamavlebi). sazRvargareT Tanamedrove sasaqonlo birJebi
ZiriTadad daxurulia.
3. birJis Seqmnis miznis mixedviT:
110
momgebiani birJebi, romlebic iswrafvian miiRon mogeba;
aramogebiani birJebi, vaWrobis organizebisaTvis xelsayreli
pirobis Semqmnelni. Aaramomgebian birJebs, Semosavlebis
xarjebze metoba, kanoniT dadgenili gadasaxadebis gamoklebiT,
SeuZliaT gamoiyenon mxolod birJis sakuTari saWiroebisTvis.
4. sabirJo garigebebis xasiaTis mixedviT:
garigebebi realuri saqonliT. realuri saqonlis birJaze
kontraqtebis gayidva iTvaliswinebs misi miwodebis valdebulebas.
realuri saqonliT birJebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSani:
vaWrobis ganaxlebis regularoba, vaWrobis ganxorcielebis
adgilis stabiluroba, dadgenili wesebisadmi upirobo
daqvemdebarebuloba;
vadiani garigebebi realuri saqonliT momavalSi saqonlis
savaldebulo miwodebiT (forvarduli garigeba). forfarduli
garigeba iTvaliswinebs realuri saqonlis miwodebas garigebis
dadebis momentSi arsebuli fasebiT winaswar daTqmul vadebSi.
aseTi garigebebi qmnian fasebis sxvaobaze TamaSis SesaZleblobas.
fiuCersuli garigebebi (garigeba xorcieldeba ara saqonelTan,
aramed saqonlze uflebiT). aseT birJaze vaWroba xorcieldeba
fiuCersuli kontraqtebiT momavalSi warmoebuli saqonlis
realizaciaze. sazRvargareTSi moqmedi birJebis umetesoba
fiuCersulia.
individualuri xasiaTis matarebeli forfarduli kotraqtisgan
gansxvavebiT, fiuCersuli kontraqti aris standartuli kontraqti.
fiuCersuli kontraqti sruldeba ara saqonlis miwodebiT aramed
kontraqtis likvidaciiT.
fiuCersuli damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSnebi;
garigebebis fiqtiuri xasiaTi, romelic sruldeba fasebSi sxvaobis
gadaxdiT, da garigebebis mxolod umniSvnelo nawili _ realuri
saqonlis miwodebiT;
111
kontraqtis yvela pirobebis (garda fasebisa) unificireba
miwodebis vadebTan da adgilTan, miwodebisTvis nebadarTuli
saqonlis raodenobasTan mimarTebiT;
garigebebis gaupirovneboba, vinaidan isini ideba ara konkretul
myidvelsa da gamyidvels Soris;
arapirdapiri kavSiri realuri saqonlis bazarTan _ hejirebis
meSveobiT da ara saqonlis miwodebiT; hejireba _ fasismieri
riskebisgan dazRvevis formaa, Cveulebriv xorcieldeba
fiuCersuli kontraqtis yidvis an gayidvis Sedegad.
5. saqmianobis sferos mixedviT:
saerTaSoriso, momsaxurebas uweven msoflio sasaqonlo bazrebs;
erovnuli, momsaxurebas uweven erovnul sasaqonlo bazrebs.
saerTaSoriso sabirJo vaWrobis mniSvnelovani centrebi ganlagebulia
aSS-Si, iaponiaSi, inglisSi. yvelaze msxvili birJebia niu-iorkis bambis
birJa, niu-iorkis yavis birJa, londonis saerTaSoriso navTobis birJa,
tokios savaWro birJa.
birJebze sabiTumo vaWroba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes sabirJo an
arasabirJo saqonliT. sabirJo saqonels miakuTvneben masaobrivi
warmoebis saqonels, romlebisTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSnebi:
Tvisobrivi erTgvarovnoba;
Tvisobrivi daxasiaTebebis Sesadarisoba drois xangrZlivi
periodis ganmavlobaSi;
saqonlis partiebis urTierTSemcvleloba, rac iZleva vaWrobis
saSualebas xarisxis aRweriT an nimuSebiT, saqonlis winaswari
daTvalierebis gareSe.
1950 wlamde sabirJo saqonlad iTvleboda mxolod ara swraffuWadi
saqoneli. mecnierul-teqnikuri progresiis miRwevebma SesaZlebeli
gaxada sabirJo brunvaSi swraffuWadi produqciis calkeuli saxeobebis
CarTva.
112
aRsaniSnavia, rom garda xilvadi saqonlisa saqonlad iTvleba
araxilvadi faseulobebi (uflebebi, procentebi), amasTan dakavSirebiT
Tanamedrove birJebze xorcieldeba vaWroba araxilvadi faseulobebiT
(fasebis indeqsebiT, sabanko procentebiT da a.S.).
tradiciulad sabirJo saqonels miekuTvneba: soflis meurneobis
produqcia, mineraluri nedleuli, marcvleuli, Saqari, kauCuki, feradi
liTonebi, navTbproduqtebi. idealSi sabirJo saqoneli aris is saqoneli,
romelmac gaiara mxolod pirveladi gadamuSaveba. standarizacia qmnis
sabirJo saqonlis mTavar niSans.
saerTaSoriso vaWrobis erT-erTi formaa auqcioni. auqcioni warmoadgens
saqonlis gayidvas specialurad gamoyofil adgize. am dros saqonlis
gayidva xorcieldeba myidvelTa Tavisufali konkurenciis safuZvelze.
auqcionze iyideba viwro specializaciis saqoneli: bewveuli, Tambaqo,
Cai, jiSiani pirutyvi, xelovnebis nawarmoebebi soTbi (inglisi).
auqcionze saqoneli formdeba lotebSi. saqoneli xvdeba im myidvels,
romelic lotSi gadaixdis yvelaze maRal fass.
aresebobs auqcionis Catarebis mravali xerxi. erT-erTi maTgania
holandiuri sqema: vaWroba iwyeba maRali fasiT, romelic Semdeg
klebulobs manmade, sanam vinme ar gamoTqvams saqonlis yidvis survils
bolo fasiT.
msoflio sasaqonlo barJebis regulirebas axorcieleben sxvadasxva
saerTaSoriso organizaciebi.
bazris koniunqturis stabilizaciis erT-erTi elementia saerTaSoriso
sasaqonlo SeTanxmebebi, romlebic warmoadgenen maravalmxriv
samTaroboTaSoriso xelSekrulebebs, mimarTuls msoflio bazrebze
fasebis stabilizaciaze, moTxonasa da miwodebas Soris Tanafardobis
dadgeniT.
113
saerTaSoriso koniunqturuli statistika
koniunqturuli statistika warmoadgens mimdinare statistikas, romlis
amocanaa ekonomikur ryevebze Tvalisdevna. koniunqturuli statistikis
roli imdenad didia, ramdenadac naklebia saxelmwifos Carevis roli
ekonomikis regulirebaSi. mas yvelaze didi mniSvneloba aqvs
ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikaSi, da uwinaresad aSS-Si.
koniunqturuli statistika iTvlis asobiT maCvenebels. Cven SevCerdebiT
ZiriTad maTganze.
ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebis mTavari amocana mdgomareobs
mosalodnel aRmavlobaze an dacemaze drouli gafrTxilebis
mcdelobaSi, bolo SemTxvevaSi aseTi maCveneblebi asruleben gangaSis
signalis rols.
gamafrTxilebeli ekonomikuri signalebis sistemis SemuSavebis
adrindeli mcdelobebidan yvelaze cnobilia egreT wodebuli harvardis
barometris agebis mcdeloba (1917_1933ww.). marTalia am barometris
meSveobiT ar iqna SesaZlebeli im didi depresiis winaswarganWvreta,
romelic 1929_1933ww. daatyda aSS ekonomikas, Tumca kvlevebi am dargSi
gagrZelda. 1966 wlidan aSS oficialuri statistika yovelTviurad
aqveynebs monacemebs ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebis cvlilebebze.
aSS-Si ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebi iyofa sam jgufad: winswrebi,
TanTxveviTi da dagvianebuli.
winswrebi indikatorebi TamaSoben mTavar rols, ramdenadac asruleben
gamafrTxilebeli signalebis rols. maCvenebelTa SerCeva winswrebi
indikatorebis jgufSi xorcieldeba, empiriuli gziT, maCvenebelTa
dinamikasa da ekonomikuri ciklis ryevebs Soris urTierTkavSirebis
analizis safuZvelze. yvelaze saimedo winswrebi indikatorebis
safuZvelze xdeba winswreb maCvenebelTa saerTo indeqsis ageba.
114
maCvenebelTa nakrebi, romlis safuZvelze aigeba es indeqsi droTa
ganmavlobaSi ganaxlebas eqvemdebareba.
1991 wels winswrebi maCvenebelTa saerTo indeqsis komponentebad
gamoiyeneboda ekonomikuri ciklis 11 maCvenebeli: damamuSavebeli
mrewvelobis muSakis mier kviris ganmavlobaSi namuSevari saaTebis
saSulo raodenoba; umuSevrobaze sadazRvevo Semweobis gacemaze
gancxadebebis saSualokvireuli raodenoba; adgilobrivi xelisuflebis
mier gacemuli axali sacxovrisis mSeneblobaze miRebuli licenziis
ricxvi; aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an fure”);
samomxmareblo molodinis ideqsi; warmoebis, vaWrobis da fuladi
mimoqcevis mdgomareobis maxasiaTebeli rigi sxva indikatorebi.
magaliTad, Tu es indeqsi mcirdeba sami Tve zedized Tvlian, rom
gangaSis signali iyo da axlo momavalSi SeiZleba daiwyos dacema.
dawyebuli 1965 wlidan yovel dacemas winuswrebda winswreb maCvenebelTa
saerTo indeqsis daweva. miuxedavad amisa prognozis sizuste am indeqis
safuZvelze ar iyo 100%-ani. 1965_1987ww ganmavlobaSi orjer hqonda
adgili indeqsis dawevas da mas dacema ar moyolia. mTlianobaSi ikveTeba
prognozirebis mravli meTodisTvis damaxasiaTebeli situacia, _ isini
muSaoben manam, sanam finansur sistemas ar emarTeba rame araCveulebrivi,
igulisxmeba sxva maCveneblebTan SekavSirebis gareSe calkeuli
maCveneblebis intensiuri winswrebi ganviTareba. magaliTad, winswrebi
maCveneblebis saerTo indeqsiT micemul erT-erT cru signals adgili
hqonda vetnamis omis periodSi, ramdenadac iyo masTan dakavSirebuli
aSSi-s samxedro xarjebic.
ganviTarebul qveynebSi samrewvelo warmoebis moculobebis dinamikis
maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba, rogorc ekonomikis calkeuli dargebis
samrewvelo warmoebis maxasiaTebeli indeqsebisgan saSualo Sewonilebi.
umetes SemTxvevaSi Sewonva xdeba laspeiresis indeqsiT.
aSS-Si fasiani qaRaldebis dinamikis maxasiaTebeli cnobili indeqsebia
dou-jonsis indeqsi, aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an
fure”) da niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis saerTo indeqsi.
115
birJis muSaobis saaTebSi maCvenebelTa ryevebze axali informaciis
miwodeba xdeba yovel xuT wuTSi. statistikur gamocemebSi Cvulebriv
qveyndeba yovelTviuri saSualoebi.
dou-jonsis indeqsis yvelaze cnobili varianti gaiangariSeba 30 msxvili
samrewvelo firmis aqciebis kursis mixedviT (magdonaldsi, filif
morisi, boingi, jeneral motorsi da sxva.). Tavdapirvelad indeqsi
warmoadgenda aqciebis kursebis martiv saSualo ariTmetikurls, Tumca
Semdgom gaangariSebis meTodikaSi Setanili iqna indeqsze moqmedi, aqciis
danawevrebis procesis amsaxveli, cvlilebebi. ZiriTadi yuradRba eqceva
maCveneblis dinamikas. dou-jonsis indeqsis absoluturi maCveneblebi ki
(magaliTad, saSualod 1990 wlis ianvaris ganmavlobaSi 2679,24 da 2587,60
1991 wlis ianvaris ganmavlobaSi) asaxaven bolo aswleulis ganmavlobaSi
aqciebis kursebis gasaSuloebul zrdas. aSS-is statistikaSi dou-jonsis
indeqsi uwinaresad ganixileba, rogorc ekonomikuri koniunqturis
moklevadiani ryevebis analizis instrumenti.
Tu dou-jonsis indeqsi izrdeba, izrdeba aqciis SefardebiTi fasi, maSin
kapitalis meanabreebi varaudoben aqciebis mixedviT didi dividendebis
miRebas, da es metyvelebs saqmiani aqtivobis zrdaze. dou-jonsis
indeqsis vardna axasiaTebs qveyanaSi saqmiani aqtivobis Semcirebas. am
maCveneblis sidide ganisazRvreba birJaze aqciebis fasebis procentuli
SefardebiT maT nominalur fasTan (gamoSvebisas sawyis fasTan) misi
sidide damokidebulia ar mxolod saqmian aqtivobaze, aramed aqvs zrdis
saerTo tendencia inflaciis, aSS-is dolaris myidvelobiTi unaris
dacemis gamo. ramdenadac saukunis dasawyisSi es zrda iyo Zalian
mniSvnelovani, amJamad dou-jonsis indeqsi Seadgens 2000%-ze mets
(rodesRac gamoSvebuli 100 dolaris Tanxis aqcia exla Rirs 2000
Tanamedrove dolari).
aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an fure”) ganazogadebs 500
korporaciis aqciebis kursebze monacemebs. amis gamo is kargad
aaproqsimirebs niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis aqciebis kurss. is moicavs
mrewvelobis sxvadasxva dargebis warmomadgeneli (transporti _20%,
116
momsaxurebis sfero _40%0, finansuri sfero _40%) ara mxolod msxvili,
aramed mcire korporaciebis aqciebs.
niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis saerTo indeqsi moicavs masSi
daregistrirebul yvela firmas da amitom iTvleba am birJis yvelaze
srul maxasiaTeblad.
leqcia 7. sagadasaxdelo balansi
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. sagadasaxdelo balansis safuZvlebi 2. sagadasaxdelo balansSi gamoyenebuli fasebi 3. operaciebis registraciis dro 4. aRricxvis savaluto erTeuli 5. sagadasaxdelo balansisa da saerTaSoriso
sainvesticio poziciis klasifikaciebi 6. mimdinare operaciebis angariSi 7. saqonlis eqsportisa da importis Sefaseba
sagadasaxdelo balansis safuZvlebi
sagadasaxdelo balansi makroekonomikuri analizisa da prognozirebis
umniSvnelovanesi instrumentia. sb-s monacemebi asaxaven mimdinare
periodSi sagareo vaWrobis ganviTarebas, romelic uSualo zemoqmedebas
axdens erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursze, warmoebis doneze, dasaqmebasa
da moxmarebaze. misi saSualebiT SeiZleba Tvali gavadevnoT, Tu ra
formiTa da ra moculobiT unda ganxorcieldes investireba qveyanaSi,
agreTve mis sazRvrebs gareT, droulad xdeba Tu ara sagareo valis
dafarva, hqonda Tu ara adgili valis gadavadebasa da
restruqturizacias. sb-is erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi analizuri
maCvenebelia oqrosa da savaluto rezervebis cvlileba, romelic
centraluri bankisaTvis erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursis
regulirebis saSualebaa.
117
sb aqtiurad gamoiyeneba savaluto kursis, sabiujeto da fulad-
sakredito politikis SemuSavebisaTvis, savaluto da sagareo vaWrobis
regulirebisaTvis. igi agreTve gvevlineba eas-is sainformacio wyarod.
pirvelad ekonomikur literaturaSi termini ,,sagadasaxdelo balansi”
gamoiyena j. stiuartma 1767 wels naSromSi ,,gamokvleva politikuri
ekonomiis principebis Sesaxeb”. Tavdapirvelad sb-s ukavSirebdnen
mxolod sagareo vaWrobis saldosa da masTan dakavSirebul oqros
moZraobas.
miuxedavad imisa, rom XIX saukuneSi farTovdeboda sagareo-ekonomikuri
operaciebis speqtri, XX saukunemde ar arsebobda erTiani Sexeduleba im
operaciebis Sesaxeb, romlebic unda asaxuliyo sb-Si. kapitalis
saerTaSoriso bazris gafarToebasTan erTad dadga sakiTxi
sagadasaxdelo balansis saxelmwifo regulirebis Sesaxeb da gaCnda
saerTaSoriso operaciebis sistematuri aRricxvis meTodebis SemuSavebis
aucilebloba. sb-is pirveli oficialuri gamoqveyneba moxda 1923 wels
aSS-is vaWrobis saministros mier. am balansSi yvela operacia sam
jgufad iyo dayofili: mimdinare, kapitaluri da operaciebi oqroTi da
vercxliT.
sb-is meTodologiis SedgenaSi udidesi wvlili Seitana erTa ligam. 1943
wels amerikelma ekonomistma lerim Seadgina aSS-is retrospeqtuli sb
1919-1939 wlebisaTvis da es samuSao safuZvlad daedo aSS-s sb-is
Sedgenas meore msoflio omis Semdeg. 1947 wels gaerom gamoaqveyna erTa
ligis mier SemuSavebuli sb-is sqema. sb-is meTodologiis Semdgomi
ganviTareba ukavSirdeba ssf-is mier gaweul muSaobas, romelic aqveynebs
saxelmZRvaneloebsa da rekomendaciebs.
sagadasaxdelo balansi aris statistikuri sistema, romelSic aisaxeba
yvela operacia mocemuli qveynis ekonomikasa da danarCeni msoflios
qveynebis ekonomikebs Soris drois garkveul periodSi (Tve, kvartali,
weli).
118
ganmartebaSi igulisxmeba, rom aRniSnuli operaciebi xorcieldeba
instituciur erTeulebs Soris, rogoricaa: sawarmoebi, finansuri
institutebi, saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi, fizikuri pirebi da
a.S.
aRsaniSnavia, rom sb principulad gansxvavdeba buRaltruli aRricxvis
balansisagan, romelic warmoadgens konkretuli ekonomikuri erTeulis
aqtivebisa (kapitalis gamoyenebis saxeebi) da pasivebis (finansuri
resursebi) CamonaTvals gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis. rac Seexeba
statistikur sistemas, romelSic aisaxeba rezidentebis yvela finansuri
aqtivi (an moTxovna) da rezidentebis valdebulebebi ararezidentebis
mimarT garkveuli TariRisaTvis, mas ewodeba saerTaSoriso sainvesticio
pozicia (ssp).
sb-is monacemTa gamoqveyneba xorcieldeba dinamikaSi, risTvisac
gamoiyeneba Semdegi cxrili:
I periodi ……... N periodi
muxli 1, saldo
(krediti, +)
(debeti, _)
…...…
muxli N, saldo
(krediti, +)
(debeti, _)
Tu sb-is monacemebi qveyndeba raime erTi periodisaTvis, SeiZleba
agreTve gamoviyenoT Semdegi gamosaxuleba, romelic klasikurad
iTvleba, Tumca mimdinare etapze iSviaTad gamoiyeneba:
krediti debeti saldo
Muxli 1
...
muxli N
119
sb agebulia buRaltruli aRricxvis Semdeg principze: TiToeuli
operacia aisaxeba orjer _ erTi angariSis kreditSi da meore angariSis
debetSi. am wess martivi ekonomikuri interpretacia aqvs: ekonomikur
operaciaTa umravlesoba ekonomikuri faseulobebis gacvlis safuZvelze
xorcieldeba.
magaliTad, qarTuli sawarmo Rvinis eqsportirebisas samagierod iRebs
ucxour valutas. Tu eqsportma Seadgina 100 000 dolari, maSin es
operacia saqarTvelos sb-Si Semdegnairad aisaxeba:
aTasi dol.
saqoneli 100
ucxouri valuta -100
saerTo saldo 0
Tu ekonomikuri faseulobebis (saqoneli, momsaxureba, finansuri
aqtivebi) gacvla Semxvedri nakadis gareSe xdeba, sb-Si Semodis
gansakuTrebuli muxli _ ,,transfertebi”.
davuSvaT, saqarTvelom danarCeni qveynebidan miiRo 10 mln.
dolaris Rirebulebis saqoneli humanitaruli daxmarebis saxiT.
saqarTvelos sb-Si aucilebelia gakeTdes Semdegi gatarebebi:O
mln. dol.
saqoneli -10
transfertebi 10
saerTo saldo 0
zemoaRniSnulidan cxadia, rom kreditis yvela gatarebebis jami debetis
gatarebebis toli unda iyos, xolo saerTo saldo _ nulis toli.
miuxedavad amisa, praqtikaSi TiTqmis arasodes ar xerxdeba balansis
miRweva im mizezis gamo, rom monacemebis miReba erTi da imave operaciis
sxvadasxva aspeqtis Sesaxeb sxvadasxva wyarodan xdeba.
120
magaliTad, saqonlis eqsportis Sesaxeb monacemebis miReba xdeba sabaJo
samsaxurebidan, xolo sawarmos angariSze ucxouri valutis moZraobis
Sesaxeb informacia miiReba sabanko statistikidan.
gansxvavebebs sakredito da sadebeto gatarebebs Soris ewodeba wminda
Secdomebi da gamotovebebi. im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu es maCvenebeli
SedarebiT mcirea, es ar niSnavs, rom Secdomebisa da gamotovebebis
absoluturi mniSvneloba mcirea, radgan urTierTsawinaaRmdego niSniT
gadaxrebi erTmaneTs abaTileben.
davuSvaT, saqonlis eqsporti asaxuli iyo ,,saqonlis” angariSis
kreditSi. es gvaZlevs saSualebas nebismieri operacia avsaxoT Sesabamisi
angariSis kreditSi an debetSi (cxrili 8.1):
cxrili 8.1
operaciebis asaxvis wesi sb-Si kreditsa da debetSi:
operaciebi krediti, + debeti, _
A. saqoneli da momsaxureba
saqonlis eqsporti da momsaxurebis eqsporti
(momsaxurebis gaweva rezidentebisaTvis) +
saqonlis importi da momsaxurebis importi
(momsaxurebis gaweva ararezidentebisaTvis) -
B. Semosavlebi (Sromis anazRaureba da
investiciuri Semosavlebi)
Semosulobebi ararezidentebisagan +
gadaxdebi ararezidentebisaTvis -
C. transfertebi (mimdinare da
kapitaluri)
miReba +
121
gadacema -
D. arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis
Sesyidva / gayidva
aqtivebis gayidva +
aqtivebis Sesyidva -
F. operaciebi finansuri aqtivebiTa da
valdebulebebiT
valdebulebebis zrda ararezidentebis mimarT +
moTxovnebis Semcireba ararezidentebis
mimarT +
moTxovnebis zrda ararezidentebis mimarT -
valdebulebebis Semcireba ararezidentebis
mimarT -
sagadasaxdelo balansSi gamoyenebuli fasebi
sb-Si operaciebi aisaxeba sabazro fasebSi. sb-is saxelmZRvanelos
Tanaxmad: sabazro fasi aris Rirebuleba, romelsac uxdian myidvelebi
gamyidvelebs raimes SesaZenad im pirobiT, rom am garigebaSi orive mxare
damoukidebelia da mas safuZvlad udevs mxolod komerciuli
mosazrebebi. es niSnavs, rom sb-Si operaciebis Sefaseba xdeba
sakontraqto, anu saxelSekrulebo fasebiT ekonomikuri faseulobebis
gacvlis momentSi da ara msoflio fasebiT, saSualo an raime
hipoTeturi fasebiT.
magaliTad, davuSvaT borjomis saeqsporto fasi ukrainaSi 2 dolaria,
xolo evropis danarCen qveynebSi _ 3 dolari. aranairi safuZveli ar
gvaqvs, rom ukrainaSi eqsporti gansxvavebuli fasiT avsaxoT imis gamo,
122
rom sxvagan ufro Zvirad gagvaqvs, radgan am SemTxvevaSi mxareebi arian
damoukidebelni, xolo operacia xorcieldeba komerciuli mosazrebiT.
Tumca arsebobs operaciebi, romelTa mimarT zemoaRniSnuli wesis
realizacia ASeuZlebelia, magaliTad:
1. barteri, anu iseTi operaciebi saqonliT, aqtivebiTa da
momsaxurebiT, romlebic ar aris gaSualebuli fuliT. Bbarteris
Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba analogiuri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebi.
amasTan, barteriT eqsportirebuli saqonlis, momsaxurebisa da aqtivebis
fasebi importirebuli barteris Rirebulebis toli unda iyos.
2. is operaciebi, romlebsac romelime mxare ar asrulebs
nebayoflobiT (gadasaxadis an jarimis gadaxda). aseTi operaciebis
Sefaseba siZneles ar warmoadgens.
3. operaciebi mxareebs Soris, romlebic ar arian damoukidebeli
(magaliTad, saTavo kompaniasa da mis sazRvargareTul filials Soris).
im SemTxvevebSi, rodesac Semosavlebis gadaricxva aSkara formiT am
mxareebs Soris SezRudulia kanonmdeblobiT an Seferxebulia
gadasaxadebis gamo, is SeiZleba ganxorcieldes saqonlis, momsaxurebisa
da aqtivebis gacvlis arapirdapiri gziT, xelovnurad gazrdili an
Semcirebuli fasebiT. am SemTxvevaSi, operacia unda avsaxoT fasebSi,
romlebsac gamoviyenebT mxareebis damoukideblobis dros.
damabalansebeli gatareba gakeTdeba ,,Semosavlebis”, an ,,pirdapiri
investiciebis” muxlebSi.
davuSvaT, N qveyanaSi SezRudulia filial-sawarmoTa Semosavlebis
gadaricxva maTi sazRvargareTeli mflobelisaTvis. erT-erTi aseTi
sawarmo, romelic awarmoebs kompiuterebs, 1000 cali kompiuterisagan
Semdgar partias (1 calis fasi 10 dolari) mihyidis saTavo kompanias
(bazarze aseTi kompiuteris fasi 1000 dolaria). cxadia, am SemTxvevaSi
adgili aqvs N qveynidan Semosavlebis arapirdapir gadaqaCvas:
aTasi dol.
saqoneli 1000
Semosavali investiciebidan -990
depozitebi mokiTxvamde ararezident-bankebSi -10
123
saerTo saldo 0
4.operaciebi, romlebic xorcieldeba ara mxolod komerciuli
mosazrebiT, an sruliad arakomerciuli mosazrebebiT (ekonomikuri
daxmareba, saCuqrebi da a.S.). aseTi operaciebis Sefaseba barteris
Sefasebis msgavsia. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu donorisa da mimRebis fasebi
erTmaneTs ar emTxveva, unda gamoviyenoiT donoris fasebi. es operacia,
Tu igi xorcieldeba mxareebs Soris SeTanxmebis safuZvelze,
,,transfertebSi” unda avsaxoT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi unda CavTvaloT,
rom ekvivalenturi gacvla xorcieldeba.
operaciebis registraciis dro
sb-Si operaciebis registraciis dros gamoiyeneba daricxvis meTodi
(igive meTodi gamoiyeneba eas-Sic): operacia aisaxeba im momentSi,
rodesac xdeba ekonomikuri faseulobebis gacvla, gardaqmna, Seqmna an
gaqroba. aRniSnuli momenti gansxvavdeba faqtobrivi gadaxdis
(anazRaurebis) momentisagan. am meTodis Sesabamisad:
sasaqonlo operaciebi aisaxeba maTze sakuTrebis uflebis
gadasvlis momentSi (gamonakliss Seadgens finansuri lizingiT
arendiT gacemuli saqoneli, gadasamuSavebeli saqoneli, saqonlis
miwodeba filiali-sawarmos mier sazRvargareT ganTavsebuli
saTavo kompaniisaTvis da saqonlis moZraoba, dakavSirebuli
savaWro SuamavlobasTan).
momsaxureba aisaxeba misi gawevis momentSi.
dividendebi aisaxeba maTi gamocxadebis momentSi.
procentebis daricxva uwyvetad mimdinareobs.
Sromis anazRaureba aisaxeba im momentSi, rodesac damqiravebels
daqiravebulis winaSe valdebuleba warmoeSoba.
aucilebeli gadasaxadebis saxiT transfertebis (gadasaxadebi,
jarimebi, sadazRvevo anazRaureba da a.S.) asaxva xdeba gadaxdis
valdebulebis dadgomis momentSi.
danarCeni transfertebis asaxva xdeba saqonlis, momsaxurebisa da
aqtivebis operaciebis dabalansebisas.
124
finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis asaxva xdeba sakuTrebis
uflebis gadasvlis momentSi (rogorc wesi, es is momentia,
rodesac buRaltrul dokumentebSi aisaxeba moTxovnisa da
valdebulebis warmoSoba).
daricxvis alternatuli meTodia sakaso, rodesac operacia angariSebSi
aisaxeba gadaxdis momentSi.
davuSvaT, qarTuli kompania axdens 5 mln. dolaris saqonlis imports da
eZleva gadaxdis gadavadebis saSualeba. sb-Si es operacia aisaxeba
Semdegi saxiT:
mln. dol.
saqoneli -5
savaWro krediti 5
saerTo saldo 0
rodesac gadaxda ganxorcieldeba, misi asaxva xdeba Semdegi saxiT:
mln. dol.
savaWro krediti -5
depozitebi ararezident-bankebSi 5
saerTo saldo 0
daricxvis meTodTan dakavSirebiT unda aRiniSnos, rom, miuxedavad imisa,
rom vadagadacilebuli davalianebis warmoSoba ar aris ekonomikuri
operacia, sb-Si igi pirobiTad aseTad iTvleba. amasTan,
vadagadaucilebeli davalianebis muxlSi aisaxeba valis Semcireba,
xolo vadagadacilebuli davalianebis muxlSi _ zrda. es saSualebas
gvaZlevs sb-s saSualebiT Tvalyuri vadevnoT sagareo valis
momsaxurebis process.
125
davuSvaT, saqarTvelos rezidents daufiqsirda 100 mln-iani kreditis
ZiriTadi dafarvisa da procentebis dafarvis vadagadacileba (10 mln.
dol). es operacia Semdegi saxiT aisaxeba:
mln. dol.
sainvesticio Semosavali -10
moziduli sesxi
ararezidentebisagan -100
vadagadacilebuli davalianeba,
valdebuleba 110
saerTo saldo 0
Sesabamisad, vadagadacilebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela Semdgomi operacia,
rogoricaa dafarva an restruqturizacia, unda aisaxos vadagadacilebis
aRricxvasTan dakavSirebul muxlebSi.
davuSvaT, zemoaRniSnuli vadagadacilebuli sesxis (110 mln. dol.)
dasafarad ucxouri bankis angariSidan gadmoiricxa 60 mln. dol.
darCenili dasafari Tanxis restruqturizacia moxda grZelvadian
sesxad. sb-Si aisaxeba Semdegi gatarebebi:
mln. dol.
moziduli sesxi
ararezidentebisagan 50
vadagadacilebuli davalianeba,
valdebuleba -110
depozitebi mokiTxvamde
ararezident-bankebSi 60
saerTo saldo 0
aRricxvis savaluto erTeuli
126
ramdenadac saerTaSoriso operaciebi SeiZleba avsaxoT sxvadasxva saxis
valutaSi, ibadeba kiTxva, romeli maTgani unda avirCioT sagadasaxdelo
balansisa da saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis Sesadgenad? radgan
es sistemebi eas-is asagebad unda iqnes gamoyenebeli, isini unda avsaxoT
erovnul valutaSi. amasTan, Tu erovnuli valuta ucxourTan
mimarTebaSi swrafad ufasurdeba, mizanSewonilia misi Sedgena aSS
dolarebSi an evroSi. sabazro fasebisa da registraciis drois
principebidan gamomdinare, sb-Si operaciebi unda aisaxos sabazro
gacvliTi kursebiT operaciebis ganxorcielebis TariRisaTvis, xolo
ssp-Si _ misi Sedgenis momentisaTvis arsebuli sabazro gacvliTi
kursebis mixedviT. amasTan, unda gamoviyenoT yidvisa da gayidvis
kursebis saSualo maCvenebeli. sxvaoba gacvlis saSualo kurssa da
aRniSnul kursebs Soris Seadgens momsaxurebis anazRaurebas.
magaliTad, saangariSo periodSi ararezidenti-banki saqarTvelos
romelime bankisaTvis axorcielebs 100 mln. germanuli markis
konvertacias dolarebSi. germanuli markis gayidvis kursia 0,65 dolari,
xolo yidvis kursi _ 0,64. Tu saSualo kursi Seadgens 0,645-s, maSin sb-Si
es Semdegnairad aisaxeba:
mln. dol.
finansuri momsaxureba -0,5
depozitebi mokiTxvamde ararezident-bankebSi 0,5
saerTo saldo 0
mocemul magaliTSi sadebeto Canaweri (64 mln. dolaris yidva markebze)
da sakredito Canaweri (markebis gayidva 64 mln. dolarad) konversiis
operaciis asaxvisaTvis gakeTdeba muxlSi ,,depozitebi mokiTxvamde
ararezident-bankebSi” da moxdeba maTi saldireba.
sagadasaxdelo balansisa da saerTaSoriso sainvesticio
poziciis klasifikaciebi
ekonomikur analizSi sb-is gamoyenebisaTvis aucilebelia garkveuli
wesiT misi monacemebis dajgufeba. erTi mxriv, gansxvavebuli operaciebi
127
unda gavmijnoT erTmaneTisagan, xolo msgavsi operaciebi gavamsxviloT
da agregirebuli saxe mivceT.
iseve rogorc eas-Si, sb-Sic operaciebi iyofa mimdinare da kapitalurad.
mimdinares miekuTvneba sasaqonlo, momsaxurebisa da Semosavlebis
operaciebi (mimdinare transfertebi ganixileba rogorc Semosavlebis
gadanawileba). kapitaluri operaciebi dakavSirebulia sainvesticio
saqmianobasTan da warmoadgens operaciebs aqtivebiTa da
valdebulebebiT. garda amisa, arsebobs kidev iseTi nakadebi, romelTa
cvlileba gavlenas axdens erovnuli simdidris maCvenebelze.
mimdinare operaciebis saldos absoluturi sidide sapirispiro niSniT _
kapitaluri operaciebis saldos tolia. sanam detalurad SevudgebodeT
TiToeuli aRniSnuli angariSis daxasiaTebas, moviyvanoT sb-is
standartuli komponentebis klasifikacia:
1. mimdinare operaciebis angariSi
A. saqoneli da momsaxureba
1. saqoneli
2. momsaxureba
B. Semosavlebi
1. Sromis anazRaureba
2. Semosavlebi investiciebidan
C. mimdinare transfertebi
2. operaciebis angariSi kapitaliTa da finansuri instrumentebiT
A. kapitalis angariSi
1. kapitaluri transfertebi
2. arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis Sesyidva/gayidva
B. finansuri angariSi
1. pirdapiri investiciebi
1.1. sazRvargareT
1.2. mocemuli qveynis ekonomikaSi
2. portfelis investiciebi
2.1. aqtivebi
2.2. valdebulebebi
128
3. finansuri warmoebulebi
3.1. aqtivebi
3.2. valdebulebebi
4. sxva investiciebi
4.1. aqtivebi
4.2. valdebulebebi
5. sarezervo aqtivebi
mimdinare operaciebis angariSi
saqoneli. tradiciuli saqonlis eqsportisa da importis garda, am
muxlSi aisaxeba gemebis mier saqonlis SeZena portebSi da agreTve is
saqoneli, romlis eqsporti (importi) xdeba maTi gadamuSavebisa da
Semdgomi reimportis (reeqsportis) mizniT. saqonlis moZraoba aisaxeba
ararezidentebisagan rezidentebze (an piriqiT) sakuTrebis uflebis
gadasvlis momentSi, Tundac saqonels ar hqondes sazRvari gadakveTili.
Tu piriqiT, saqonelma gadakveTa sazRvari sakuTrebis uflebis
Seucvlelad (magaliTad. tranzituli tvirTebi, saqonlis miwodeba sxva
qveynebis saelCoebisaTvis da a.S.), maSin es operaciebi ar unda aisaxos
sb-Si. Tumca am wess gamonaklisebic axasiaTebs:
pirveli gamonaklisi dakavSirebulia finansur lizingTan, rac ZiriTadi
kapitalis grZelvadian arendas warmoadgens. Cveulebriv, finansur
lizings axorcieleben finansuri kompaniebi, an finansuri Suamavlebi. sb-
is meTodologiis mixedviT, finansuri lizingis ganxorcielebis dros
faqtobrivad xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla ijariT aRebul
saqonelze, Tumca ara iuridiulad, e.i finansuri lizingi warmogvidgeba
rogorc krediti _ sasaqonlo formiT. finansuri lizingiT arendiT
aRebuli saqoneli sb-Si aisaxeba rogorc saqonlis eqsporti (importi).
damabalansebeli Canaweri keTdeba finansur angariSSi da asaxavs
rezidentebis finansuri moTxovnis warmoSobas ararezidentebisadmi
(ararezidentebisa rezidentebis mimarT). arafinansuri lizingi
warmoadgens moklevadian arendas da ganixileba rogorc momsaxurebis
gaweva.
129
meore gamonaklisi _ es aris saqonlis miwodeba saTavo kompaniasa da
sazRvargareTul filialebs Soris. formalurad, am SemTxvevaSi
miwodebul saqonelze ar xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla, Tumca
saqonlis aRniSnuli gadaadgileba mainc aisaxeba sb-Si, radgan filiali
iTvleba damoukidebel erTeulad. yvela danarCeni operaciac saTavo
kompaniasa da filials Soris asaxvas poulobs sb-Si rogorc operaciebi
rezidentebsa da ararezidentebs Soris.
mesame gamonaklisi ukavSirdeba im saqonels, romelic sazRvargareT
gadis gadasamuSaveblad Semdgomi reeqsportisaTvis. mocemul SemTxvevaSi
formalurad ar xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla, miuxedavad amisa,
es saqoneli, romelic brundeba qveyanaSi remontis an gadamuSavebis
Semdeg, unda avsaxoT muxlSi ,,saqoneli”. Tu saqoneli qveyanaSi brundeba
momdevno wels, maSin gatareba muxlSi ,,saqoneli” unda dabalansdes
muxliT ,,savaWro kreditebi”.
meoTxe gamonaklisi dakavSirebulia savaWro SuamavlobasTan.
saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi zogierTi savaWro firma yidulobs saqonels
erT qveyanaSi meoreSi gadayidvisaTvis da, amasTanave, es saqoneli ar
kveTs im qveynis sazRvars, romlis rezidenticaa mocemuli firma.
miuxedavad imisa, rom formalurad am SemTxvevaSi saqonelze sakuTrebis
uflebis gadasvla xdeba rezidentebidan ararezidentebze, ekonomikuri
TvalsazrisiT, mizanSewonilia CavTvaloT, rom es savaWro firmebi
savaWro momsaxurebas uweven ararezidentebs da ar axdenen saqonlis
imports qveyanaSi Semdgomi reeqsportisaTvis. amitom sb-Si aseTi
operaciebisaTvis unda moxdes gatareba ara muxliT ,,saqoneli”, aramed
muxlSi “momsaxureba”, savaWro daricxvis sididiT.
davuSvaT rom, firma A qveyanaSi yidulobs 100 dolarad saqonels pirvel
saangariSo periodSi da yidis mas B qveyanaSi 105 dolarad momdevno
periodSi. am SemTxvevaSi mainc mogviwevs gatareba muxlSi “saqoneli”,
xolo imisaTvis, rom miTiTebuli principebiT moxdes sb-s Sedgena wlis
ori saangariSo periodisaTvis, es Semdegnairad unda gakeTdes:
130
aSS dolarebSi
I
periodi
II
periodi
I da
II
periodebi
saqoneli -100 100 0
savaWro momsaxureba 0 5 5
ucxouri valuta 100 -105 -5
saerTo saldo 0 0 0
saqonlis eqsportisa da importis Sefaseba
saqonlis moZraobis Sefaseba saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi garkveul
siZneleebTan aris dakavSirebuli. erT-erTi dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom
yovel konkretul SemTxvevaSi saqoneli sxvadasxvanairad SeiZleba
Sefasdes imis mixedviT, gaiTvaliswineba Tu ara transportirebis,
dazRvevis, datvirTvis, Senaxvis xarjebi, rasac anazRaurebs importiori
an SesaZlebelia _ eqsportiori, saqonlis SeZenis Semdeg myidvelTan
mitanamde.
cxadia, rom aucilebelia raime pirobiTi wesis SemoReba, raTa ar
damaxinjdes savaWro balansis dinamika sxvadasxva Sefasebis safuZvelze.
sb-Si saqonlis eqsporti da importi ,,Fob” fasebSi aisaxeba. es aris
saqonlis Rirebuleba mwarmoeblis fasebSi da moicavs yvela
dakavSirebuli momsaxurebis Rirebulebas eqsportiori qveynis sazRvris
gadakveTis momentisaTvis Semdgom transportirebaze gaweuli
danaxarjebis CaTvliT, anu ,,Fob” fasi _ es aris fasi, romelic
importiorma unda gadaixados, Tu igi axorcielebs saqonlis gadatanas
mas Semdeg, rac is daitvirTeba satransporto saSualebaze eqsportiori
qveynis sazRvarze, yvela saeqporto gadasaxadis gadaxdisa da SeRavaTis
miRebis Semdeg.
131
Tu saqonlis transportirebas an dazRvevas sazRvris gadakveTis Semdeg
eqsportiori axdens, iTvleba, rom igi moqmedebs rogorc importioris
agenti da aseTi gadaxdebi sb-Si aisaxeba muxlSi ,,momsaxureba”.
Tu transportirebas da a.S. eqsportiori qveynis sazRvramde axorcielebs
importiori an sxva ararezidenti, iTvleba, rom is moqmedebs rogorc
eqsportioris agenti da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba saqonlis fasSi
gaiTvaliswineba. ,,Sif” fasi _ es is fasia, romelsac ixdis importiori
saqonlisaTvis saimporto baJisa da sxva gadasaxadebis gadaxdamde, Tu
is ganaxorcielebs saqonlis miwodebas Tavisi qveynis sazRvridan. aqedan
gamomdinare, ,,Sif” da ,,Fob” fasebs Soris sxvaoba warmoadgens dazRvevisa
da transportirebis Rirebulebas da SesaZlebelia sxva momsaxurebis
anazRaurebasac mas Semdeg, rac saqoneli gadakveTs eqsportiori qveynis
sazRvars importioris sazRvramde. rogorc wesi, sabaJo statistikaSi
saqonlis eqsporti fasdeba ,,Fob” fasebSi, xolo importi _ ,,Sif” fasebSi.
amrigad, aucilebelia sabaJo statistikis monacemebis koreqtireba sb-Si
gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT.
moviyvanoT magaliTi, Tu rogor xdeba saqonlis moZraobis asaxva sb-Si
,,Fob” fasebSi. davuSvaT, rom 2007 wlis 29 dekembers qarTulma X
sawarmom germaniaSi SeiZina 10 000 dolaris Rirebulebis saqoneli
(angariSsworeba ganxorcielda dauyovnebliv). garda amisa, aRniSnuli
sawarmo qarTul satransporto kompanias (Y) uxdis 1000 dolars
saqonlis gadatanisaTvis saqarTveloSi satvirTo avtotransportiT.
transportireba ganxorcielda 30 dekembers, Tumca transporti
saqarTvelos sazRvars gadakveTs mxolod 2008 wlis 2 ianvars da X
sawarmo saqonels iRebs adgilze 4 ianvars. davuSvaT, rom
transportirebis xarjebma 30-dan 1 ianvramde Seadgina 400 dolari, 1-dan
2 ianvramde _ 350 dolari, xolo 2-dan 4 ianvramde _ 250 dolari (sul
1000 dolari). es operaciebi Semdegnairad aisaxeba sb-Si:
2007 weli 2008 weli 2007-08
wlebi
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saqoneli (importi) -10 400 -350 -10 750
momsaxureba (satransporto
momsaxurebis eqsporti)
400 350 750
ucxouri valuta 10 000 0 10 000
saerTo saldo 0 0 0
am magaliTSi 2007 wels importirebuli saqonlis Rirebulebam ,,Fob”
fasebSi Seadgina 10 400 dolari, rac aisaxa muxlSi ,,saqoneli”. Tumca
sinamdvileSi transportirebas axorcielebda importiori, is moqmedebda
rogorc eqsportioris agenti, e.i. iTvleba, rom eqsportiorma aanazRaura
importioris xarjebi 400 dolaris odenobiT da Semdeg mihyida mas
saqoneli 10 400 dolarad, miuxedavad imisa, rom sinamdvileSi
eqsportiors araferi ar gadauxdia importiorisaTvis, xolo
importiorma eqsportiors gadauxada mxolod 10 000. danarCeni gatarebebi
2008 wlisaTvis da orive wlisaTvis erTad mocemulia zemoT
TanmimdevrobiT.
momsaxureba. sb-Si ,,momsaxurebis” muxli Zalian detalizebulia, rac
saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi momsaxurebis zrdad rolze metyvelebs.
moviyvanoT klasifikaciis agregirebuli muxlebi:
1. transporti
1.1. sazRvao
1.2. sahaero
1.3. sxva
2. mgzavroba
3. kavSirgabmuloba
4. samSeneblo momsaxureba
5. dazRveva
6. finansuri momsaxureba
7. kompiuteruli sainformacio momsaxureba
8. gadasaxadebi patentebsa da licenziebze
9. sxva biznes-momsaxureba
10. personaluri, kulturuli momsaxureba, garToba da dasveneba
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11. momsaxureba saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebisaTvis
,,mgzavrobis” muxlis kreditSi aisaxeba momsaxurebaTa Rirebuleba,
romelsac rezidentebi uweven ararezident fizikur pirebs, agreTve
saqonlis Rirebuleba, romelsac ararezidentebi iZenen rezidentebisagan.
gamonaklisia saerTaSoriso gadayvanebi, rac Sesabamis muxlSi aisaxeba.
debetSi aisaxeba momsaxurebaTa Rirebuleba, romelsac ararezidentebi
uweven rezident pirebs da saqonlis Rirebuleba, rasac rezidentebi
iZenen ararezidentebisagan.
muxlSi ,,finansuri momsaxureba” asaxulia sakomisioebis anazRaureba,
rasac finansuri instituciuri erTeulebi iReben TavianTi momsaxurebis
sanacvlod (angariSis gaxsna, fasiani qaRaldebis ganTavseba, sabrokero
momsaxureba da a.S.).
,,gadasaxadebi patentebsa da licenziebze” (ara saavtoro uflebis an
licenziis yidva da gayidva) eas-is mixedviT ganixileba rogorc
momsaxurebis anazRaureba, amitom sb-Sic is aisaxeba momsaxurebaSi.
Tu saqonlis arendiT aReba xanmokle periodiT xdeba, mesakuTris
Sucvlelobis gamo es ar aisaxeba sb-Si. saarendo gadasaxadebi
arafinansuri lizingis dros aisaxeba rogorc eas-Si, ise sb-Si _
rogorc momsaxureba, muxlSi ,,sxva biznes-momsaxureba”.
Semosavlebi. am muxlSi aisaxeba Semosavlebi, romelsac iReben
rezidentebi ararezidentebisagan (an piriqiT) warmoebis faqtorebiT
(Sroma, kapitali, miwa) sargeblobisaTvis. muxlSi ,,Sromis anazRaureba”
asaxulia momuSaveTa (sezonuri muSebis, sazRvris muSebis) anazRaureba
sxva qveynis rezidentebis mier. anazRaureba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes
rogorc fuladi, ise naturaluri formiT. ,,sainvesticio Semosavlebis”
muxlSi aisaxeba Semosavlebi sazRvargareTuli finansuri aqtivebis
flobidan, romelsac ararezidentebi uxdian rezidentebs (an piriqiT). es
SeiZleba iyos procentebi, dividendebi da Semosavlebis sxva formebi.
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mimdinare transfertebi. rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, transfertií es aris
operacia, rodesac erTi instituciuri erTeuli meores awvdis saqonels,
momsaxurebas an aqtivs da samagierod ar iRebs misgan ekvivalentur
saqonels, momsaxurebasa da aqtivs. mimdinare transferti zrdis mimRebis
gankargvad Semosavals da amcirebs donoris gankargvad Semosavalsa da
moxmarebis potenciur SesaZleblobebs.
daTqmis mixedviT, yvela sxva transferti kapitaluria. Tu donori da
mimRebi erTmaneTis mimarT ararezidentebi arian, kapitaluri transferti
gavlenas axdens maTi qveynebis erovnul simdidreze. kapitaluri
transfertebia: sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla aqtivebze, valis patieba.
fulis ususyidlod gadacema ganixileba kapitalur transfertad
mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es Tanxa gamiznulia ZiriTadi aqtivebis
SesaZenad. ,,mimdinare transfertebis” muxls aqvs Semdegi detalizacia:
1. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi (qveyana, romlisTvisac dgeba
sb).
2. sxva seqtorebi (qveyana, romlisTvisac dgeba sb).
momuSave pirTa gadaricxvebi.
sxva mimdinare transfertebi.
kapitalis angariSi. kapitaluri transfertebi aisaxeba kapitalis
angariSSi, romelSic mocemulia agreTve arafinansuri aqtivebis
SeZena/realizacia. kapitalisa da finansuri angariSebi Seadgenen
dagrovebis angariSebs.
finansuri angariSi, am angariSSi aisaxeba operaciebi rezidentebis
aqtivebiTa da valdebulebebiT ararezidentebis mimarT saangariSo
periodSi. tradiciulad, sb-Si aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis
klasifikacia, upirveles yovlisa, xdeba funqciuri niSnis mixedviT.
gamoiyofa xuTi funqciuri jgufi:
pirdapiri investiciebi.
portfelis investiciebi.
finansuri warmoebulebi.
sarezervo aqtivebi.
135
sxva investicia.
miuxedavad imisa, rom maT Soris gansxvaveba sakmaod pirobiTia,
ekonomikuri analizisaTvis es Zalian mniSvnelovania, radgan aRniSnuli
jgufebis aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis moZraoba sxvadasxva mizeziT
aixsneba. ganvixiloT ufro dawvrilebiT aRniSnuli kategoriebi.
pirdapiri investiciebi. pirdapiri investireba xorcieldeba sawarmos
marTvis procesze zemoqmedebis mizniT sawarmos sakuTar kapitalSi
monawileobis gziT. pirdapiri investicia saerTaSoriso investiciis
kategoriaa. is gulisxmobs ama Tu im ekonomikis rezidenti erTeulis
(pirdapiri investori) grZelvadian interess sxva ekonomikis rezident
erTeulSi (pirdapiri investoris sawarmo). sawarmos pirdapiri investori
aris investori, romelic flobs sawarmos aqciebis an xmis uflebis 10
procents an mets (korporaciis SemTxvevaSi), an ekvivivalentur
Zalauflebas (ararkorporirebuli sawarmos SemTxvevaSi).
davuSvaT, saangariSo periodis bolos erToblivi sawarmos mogebam 100
mln. dolari Seadgina. pirdapiri ucxoeli investori flobs aqciaTa
30%-s. saqarTvelos sagadasaxdelo balanss Semdegi saxe eqneba:
mln. dol.
mimdinare operaciebis angariSi -30
Semosavali investiciidan -30
Semosavlebi pirdapiri investiciebidan
reinvestirebuli Semosavlebi
-30
finansuri angariSi 30
pirdapiri investiciebi 30
saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi 30
Semosavlebis reinvestireba 30
saerTo saldo 0
136
portfelis investicia. portfelis investicia aris savalo fasiani
qaRaldebi, aqciebi da fuladi bazris sxva instrumentebi, romelTa
SeZena xdeba ZiriTadad Semosavlis miRebis mizniT maTi likvidurobis
SenarCunebis xarjze.
portfelis investiciebi imis mixedviT klasificirdeba, finansuri
instrumenti aqtivia Tu valdebuleba. Semdeg maTi dayofa xdeba
finansuri instrumentis saxis mixedviT:
aqciebi (investori flobs aqciebis 10%-ze naklebs) da sxva
monawileoba kapitalSi.
savalo fasiani qaRaldebi.
obligaciebi da sxva grZelvadiani fasiani qaRaldebi.
fuladi bazris instrumentebi.
amis Semdeg aqtivebi klasificirdeba kreditoris seqtoris mixedviT,
xolo valdebulebebi _ erovnuli ekonomikis debitoris seqtoris
mixedviT. arCeven Semdeg oTx seqtors:
fulad-sakredito regulirebis organoebi (fsro).
saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi.
bankebi
sxva seqtorebi:
arafinansuri sawarmoebi.
Sinameurneobebi.
sxva finansuri dawesebulebebi.
Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arasaxelmwifo arakomerciuli
organizaciebi.
finansuri warmoebulebi. es aris finansuri instrumentebi, romlebic
mibmulia konkretul finansur aqtivze, indikatorze, an raime saxis
aqtivze. maTi meSveobiT xdeba finansuri riskebiT vaWroba finansuri
bazrebze. finansuri warmoebulebi moicavs tranzaqciebs svopebiT,
ofcionebiT, sadepozito garantiebiTa da sxv. da aRiricxeba wminda
saxiT. sxva finansuri instrumentebisagan gansxvavebiT, finansuri
warmoebulebi ar moiTxoven kapitalis avansirebas (ofcionebis garda) da
137
sainvesticio Semosavlebis daricxvas. finansuri warmoebulebis
gansazRvra pirvelad gaCnda ssf-s gamocemaSi ,,The Statistical Measurement of
Financial Derivatives. sb-Si maTi gamoyofa calke jgufSi 2000 wels moxda.
sarezervo aqtivebi. sarezervo aqtivebi monetaruli xelisuflebis
gankargulebaSi arsebuli finansuri aqtivebia da gamoiyeneba qveynis
sagadasaxdelo balansis regulirebisaTvis. kerZod, is SeiZleba
gamoyenebul iqnes pirdapir sb-is deficitis dasafinanseblad an
deficitze arapirdapiri zegavlenis mosaxdenad (savaluto birJaze
Carevis gziT erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursis dasaregulireblad).
sarezervo aqtivebi sb-Si Sedgeba Semdegi elementebisagan:
monetaruli oqro
nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi (nsu)
sarezervo pozicia fondSi (qveynis moTxovna ssf-is mimarT ucxour
valutaSi)
ucxouri valuta
naRdi fuli da depozitebi
moTxovnebi (fsro)-s mimarT
moTxovnebi bankebis mimarT
fasiani qaRaldebi
aqciebi
obligaciebi
fuladi bazris instrumentebi
finansuri warmoebulebi
sxva moTxovnebi.
sarezervo aqtivebis erT-erTi Semadgenelia monetaruli oqro _ oqro,
romelic (fsro)-ebis sakuTrebaSia da gamoiyeneba maT mier rogorc
sarezervo finansuri aqtivi. yvela sxva oqro (aramonetaruli) im oqros
CaTvliT, romelic ekuTvnis bankebs, ganixileba rogorc Cveulebrivi
saqoneli. es metyvelebs imaze, rom ukanasknel periodSi oqro kargavs
gadaxdis saSualebis funqcias.
138
sxva investicia. sxva investiciis pirveladi dayofa xdeba aqtivebad
(moTxovnebi ararezidentebisadmi) da valdebulebebad (ararezidentebis
mimarT). aqtivebi da valdebulebebi, Tavis mxriv, klasificirdeba savaWro
kreditebad, naRd fulad da depozitebad, sesxebad da sxva
aqtivebad/valdebulebebad.
savaWro kreditebi warmoadgens moTxovnebsa da valdebulebebs, romelic
warmoiqmneba mimwodebelsa da myidvels Soris uSualo urTierTobisas _
rodesac Tanxis gadaxdis dro ar emTxveva sakuTrebis cvlilebis dros.
savaWro krediti ar gulisxmobs savalo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSvebas
an raime dokumentis Seqmnas.
sxvadasxva vadagadacilebebi aRiricxeba sxva valdebulebebis” muxlSi.
kerZod, es muxli moicavs vadagadacilebebs sagareo valis
momsaxurebaze.
leqcia 8 saerTaSoriso safinanso da sabanko statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito urTierTobebis institucionaluri struqtura;
2. saerTaSoriso sabanko statistika; 3. fuladi sistemebi da fuladi mimoqcevis statistika; 4. inflaciis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika.
saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito
urTierTobebis institucionaluri struqtura
saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito urTierTobebis
institucionaluri struqtura moicavs mrvalricxovan saerTaSoriso
orgnizacias. erTni maTgni, gaCniaT ra didi uflebebi da resursebi,
axorcieleben saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito
urTierTobebis regulirebas, sxvebi warmoadgenen safinanso da
savluto-sakredito politikaSi rekomendaciebisa da konsesusis
SemuSavebis forums samTavoroboTaSoriso ganxilvisaTvis. mesameni
139
uzrunvelyofen informaciis mopovebas, statistikur da samecniero-
kleviT gamomcemlobas aqtuluri safinanso da savluto-sakredito
problemebisa da mTlianad ekonomikis mixedviT.
saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito organizaciebs
pirobiTad SeiZleba vuwodoT saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebi. Aam
organizaciebs aerTianebs saerTo mizani _ rTuli da winaaRmdegobrivi
msoflio meurneobis erTianobisa da stabilizaciis uzrunvelyofa da
TanamSromlobis ganviTareba. M
saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebi ZiriTadad warmoiSva meore
msoflio omis Semdeg, gamonakliss warmoadgens angariSsworebis
saerTaSoriso banki (1930w).
saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebis warmoSoba ganpirobebulia
Semdegi mizeziT:
1. sameurneo cxovrebis globalizaciis gaZliereba, iseTi
transnacionaluri korporciebisa da transnacionaluri
bankebis Seqmna, romlebic scildeba eronul sazRvrebs.
2. msoflio sameurneo kavSirebis saxemwifoTaSorisi regulirebis
ganviTareba, m.S. safinanso da savluto-sakredito
urTierTobebis.
3. msoflio ekonomikis arastabilurobis problemebis, savaluto
sistemis, valutis, kreditebis, fasiani qaRaldebis, oqros
bazrebis CaTvliT erToblivi gadawyvetis aucilebloba.
msoflio mniSvnelobis mqone organizciebs uwinaresad miekuTvneba
gaeros yvela specializebuli instituti – saerTaSoriso savluto
fondi ssf (Internatianai Monetary Fund – IMF), msoflio bankis jgufi da,
agreTve generaluri SeTanxmeba vaWrobasa da tarifebze, Semdgom
gardaqmnili msoflio savaWro organizaciad.
angariSsworebis saerTaSoriso banki (1930w.) _ uxucesi sakredito-
finansuri instituti, romlis saqminoba mimarTulia savaluto
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urTierTobis sferoSi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaze.
damfuZneblebi _ belgia, germnia, itlia, safrngeTi da iaponia. amJamad
misi wevria 34 saxelmwifo. Aadgilmdebareoba bazeli (Sveicaria). Seiqmna,
rogorc saerTaSoriso banki im centraluri bankebis mier, romlebic
arian erTdroulad misi dafuZneblebi da klientebi. komerciul da sxva
bankebTan, agreTve kerZo pirebTan operaciebis ganxorcieleba
angariSsworebis saerTaSoriso banks SeuZlia mxolod im qveynis
centraluri bankis TanxmobiT, romlis rezidentebi arin potenciuri
klientebi. bankis wesdebis Tanaxmad misi operaciebi unda
Seesatyvisebodes am operaciebSi monawile qveynebis savaluto politikas.
am bankis ZiriTadi mizanebia centralur bankebs Soris TanamSromlobis
xelSewyoba, saerTaSoriso finansuri operaciebis gansaxorcileblad
xelsayreli pirobebis uzrunvelyofa, da agreTve ndobiT aRWurvili
piris an agentis funqciis Seruleba maTi wevrebis mier saerTaSoriso
angariSsworebis ganxorcielebisas.
marTvis organoebia aqcionerebis saerTo kreba, direqtorTa sabWo, bankis
prezidenti da administracia. aqcionerebis saerTo kreba moiwveva
yovelwliurd da Sedgeba wevr qveynebis centraluri bankebis
warmomadgenlebisgan. aqciunerebis xmebi nawildeba TiToeuli qveynis
centraluri bankisTvis gamoyofili xelmowerili aqciis raodenobis
proporciulad.
bankis direqtorTa sabWo tardeba araumetes 10 jer weliwadSi.
direqtorTa sabWo niSnavs bankis prezidents, romelic akontrolebs
administraciis saqmianobas.
bankis resuresebi formirdeba aqcioneruli kapitalisa da moziduli
saxsrebis xarjze. Bbankis aqcioneruli kapitali ekuTvnis wevr qveynebis
centralur banks (80%-ze meti) da kerZo aqcionerebs. bankis aqciebi
aZlevs yvela aqcioners dividendebis miRebis Tanabar uflebas, magram
kerZo aqcionerebs ara aqvT xmis ufleba.
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saerTaSoriso savluto fondi Seiqmna 1944 wels breton-vudsis
konferenciaze, miuxedavad imisa, rom is aris gaeros specializebuli
dawesebuleba da monawileobs gaeros ekonomikuri da socialuri sabWos
muSaobaSi, moqmedebs damoukideblad da aqvs sakuTari wesdeba, marTvis
struqtura da finansebi.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis saqmianoba:
1. xelsuwyobs saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobas fulad-sakredito
sferoSi;
2. xelsuwyobs valutis kursis stabilurobas da aregulirebs
normebsa da wesebs savaluto sferoSi;
3. xelsuwyobs mravalmxrivi angariSworebis Seqmnas da savaluto
SezRudvebis aRmofxvras;
4. exmareba Tavis wevrebs sagadasaxdelo balansis disproporciis
aRmofxvraSi, finansuri saxsrebis droebiT gacemis xarjze.
ssf gaaCnia saerTaSoriso finansuri rezevebis Seqmnisa da Tavisi
wevrebisaTvis gacemis uflebmosileba ,,sesxebis specialuri uflebis”
fomiT. fondis finansuri resursebi ZiriTadad formirdeba misi wevr-
qveynebis xelmoweris (kvotebis) xarjze. kvotebi formirdeba formuliT,
gamodinare wevr-qveynebis ekonomikis SefardebiTi zomebidan.
ssf ZiriTadi finansuri roli mdgomareobs sagadasaxdelo balansTan
mimarTebiT siZneleebis mqone wevr-qveynebisTvis moklevadiani kreditebis
gacemaSi. Tavis mxriv wevrebi, romlebic iReben saSualebebs fondidan
Tanxmdebian ganaxorcielon politikuri reformebi aseTi siZneleebis
gamomwvevi mizezebis aRmofxvris mizniT. kreditebis zoma izRudeba
kvotebis proporciulad. ssf sxva kreditebi ufro grZelvadiania,
SeRavaTiani kreditebis CaTvliT, dabali Semosvlebis mqone wevr-
qveynebisTvis subsidiis safuZvelze, romelic finansdeba warsulSi ssf
oqros gayidvisa da wevr-qveynebis Senatanebis xarjze.
xelmZRvaneli organoa mmarTvelTa sabWo, romelSic wardgenilia yvela
wevri qveyana, ikribeba yovelwliurad. yoveldRiur muSaobas
142
xelmZRvnelobs aRmasrulebeli sabWo 24 wevris SemadgenlobiT.
safinanso-savaluto komiteti, romlis 24 wevri Sedis mmarTvelTa
sabWoSi konsultirebas uwevs sabWos mis kompetenciaSi Semaval
sakiTxebSi. ssf profesionli TanamSromlebi ZiriTadad arin
ekonomistebi.
ssf gamocema Word Economic Outllook (msoflio ekonomikuri mdgomareoba) da
Global Financial StabiliTy Report moxseneba globlur finansur stabilurobaze
gamodis weliwadSi orjer, danarCen sxvadasxva gamokvlevebTan.
msoflio banki, ssf-Tan erTad aris msxvili safinaso orgnizacia, aseve
Seqmnili breton-vudsis konferenciis Sedegebis mixedviT, romelic
Catarda aSS 1944 wels.
msoflio banki xelsuwyobs grZelvadin ekonomkur ganviTarebas,
siRaribis Semcirebas teqnikuri da finansuri mxardaWeriT, maT Soris
imisTvis, rom daxmareba aRmouCinos qveynebs gansazRvruli seqtorebis
reformirebaSi an gansazRvruli proeqtebis ganxorcielebaSi _
skolebis, jandacvis obieqtebis mSenebloba, daavadebebTan brZola,
garemos dacva. Mmb-is xelSewyoba atarebs geZelvadian xasiaTs da
finasdeba rogorc wevr-qveynebis Senatanebis, aseve obligaciebis
gamoSvebis meSveobiT. mb-is TanamSromelTa kvalifikacia moicavs
disciplinebis ufro farTo wres vinem msf TanamSromlebis
kvalifikacia.
ssf da mb TanamSromloben sxvadasxva dargebSi, gansakuTrebiT dabal
Semosavlian qveynebSi siRaribis Semcirebis, uRaribesi qveynebis valis
tvirTis Serbilebis, da agreTve qveynis finansuri seqtoris Sefasebis
saqmeSi. orive organizacia atarebs erTobliv TaTbirs weliwadSi
orjer.
msoflio banki _ saerTSoriso finansuri organizacia, Seqmnili
ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis finansuri da teqnikuri daxmarebis
orgnizebis mizniT. man Tavis ganviTarebis procesSi ganicada sxvadsxva
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struqturuli cvlilebebi, amitom termin mb-Si sxvadsxva etapze
moazreboda sxvdasxva organizacia.
Tavidan mb asocirdeboda ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis
saerTSoriso bankTan, romelic aRuCenda dasavleT evropasa da iaponias
meore msoflio omis Semdeg finansur daxmarebas aRdgenisaTvis.
mogvianebiT 1960 w. Seiqmna ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia,
romelmac itvirTa am bankis politikasTan dakvSirebuli funqciebis
nawili.
amJamad mb-Si faqtobrivad moiazreba ori orgnizacia:
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki;
ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia.
sxvadsxva dros maT miuerTda mb amocanebis gadasawyvetad Seqmnili kidev
sami organizacia:
saerTaSoriso finansuri korporacia;
investiciebis garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagento;
saeinvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso centri.
xuTive orgnizacia Sedis msoflio bankis organizaciis jgufSi da
iwodebian msoflio bankis jgufad.
mb gaaCnia Tavisi warmomadgenloba msoflios 100-ze met qveyanaSi, sadac
muSaobs 10000-mde kaci. Stab-bina voSingtoni.
mb wevrobis pirobaa ssf-Si wevroba, e.i. ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis
saerTSoriso bankis yoveli wevri jer und gaxdes ssf-s wevri. mxolod
is qveynebi, romlebic arian ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis
saerTSoriso bankis wevrebi, SeiZleba iyvnen msoflio bankis jgufSi
Semavali sxva organizaciebis wevri.
mb SemadgenlobaSi Semavali ori urTierTdakavSirebuli dawesebuleba _
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki da ganviTarebis
saerTaSoriso asociacia sesxems gascemen dabali saprocento
ganakveTebiT, nulovani procentiT an grantebis saxiT im qveynebs,
144
romlebsac araqvs kapitalis saerTaSoriso bazrebze daSveba an aqvT
daSvebis araxelsayreli pirobebi. gansxvavebiT sxva finansuri
dawesebulebeisgan mb ar iswrafvis mogebis miRebisaken. ganviTarebisa da
rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki moqmedebs sabazro safuZvelbze,
iyenebs Tavis maRal sakredito reitings, romelic aZlevs mas saSualebas
miiRos saxsrebi dabali procentiT, imisTvis rom gasces Tavis klientebs
ganviTarebadi yveqnebis ricxvidan aseve dabali saprocento ganakveTiT.
saoperacio xarjebs, dakavSirebuls am saqmianobasTan, banki faravs
damoukideblad, dafinansebis gare wyaroebis gamouyeneblad.
weliwadSi erTxel msoflio bankis jgufi SeimuSavebs CarCo documents:
,, msoflio bankis jgufis saqmianobis strategias”, romelic gamoiyeneba
rogorc qveynebTan TanamSromlobis safuZveli. strategia exmareba bankis
programis SekavSirebas, rogorc sesxebis gacemis aseve analitikuri da
sakonsultacio momsaxurebis mixedviT msesxebeli qveynis ganviTarebis
konkretul miznebTan. strategiaSi Sedis programebi da proeqtebi,
romlebsac SeuZliaT maqsimaluri gavlena iqonios siRaribis
problemebis gadawyetSi da xeliSeuwyos dinamiur socialur-ekonomikur
ganviTarebas.
Tavidan ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki
mowodebuli iyo kapitalisturi qveynebis akumulirebuli sabiujerto
saSulebebisa da moziduli investorebis kapitalis meSveobiT kerZo
investiciebis stimulireba moexdina dasavleT evropis qveynebSi,
romelTa ekonomika dazaralda meore msoflio omis dros. 50-an wlebSi,
rodesac dasavleT evropis ekonomika stabilizirda, misi saqmianoba
ufro metad orientirda aziis, afrikis da laTinuri merikis qveynebze.
ssf-gan gansxvavebiT ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki
ar gmoiyenebs dakreditebis standartul pirobebs. Mmisi sakredito
ganakveTebi, vadebi da moculoba ganisazRvreba dasakreditebeli
proeqtis TaviseburebebiT. bankis yvela sesxi unda iyos garantirebuli
wevr-qveynebis mTarobebis mier. sesxebi gmoiyofa procentuli ganakvetiT,
romelic icvleba yovel 6 TveSi. sesxebi gaicema, rogorc wesi 15-20
wliT, ZiriTadi Tanxis mixedviT gadsaxadis 3-5 wlis gadavadebiT.
145
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis umaRlesi organoa
mmarTvelTa sabWo da direqtoriati rogorc aRmasrulebeli organo.
bankis prezidenti, rogorc wesi aSS umaRlesi saqmiani wreebis
warmomadgenelia. sabWos sesiebi tardeba weliwadSi erTxel ssf-Tan
erToblivad. bankis wevrebi SeiZleba iqvnen mxolod ssf wevrebi, xmebi
aseve ganisazRvreba qveynis kvotiT ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis
saerTSoriso bankis kapitalSi (180 miliard dolarze meti). miuxedavad
imisa rom wevri aris 186 qveyana, liderobs Svideuli: aSS, iaponi,
didibritaneTi, safrangeTi, germnia, kanada da italia.
bankis resursebis wyaro garda aqcioneruli kapitalisa aris
saobligacio sesxebis ganTavseba ZiriTadad amerikul bazarze, da
saSualebebi miRebuli obligaciebis gayidvidan.
ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia (Seiqmna 1960 w.) kredits gascems
mxolod wevr-qveynebs 35-40 wlis vadiT. dafarva iwyeba SeRavaTiani 10
wlini periodiis Semdeg. kreditebi gaicema dasakreditebeli qveynis
erovnul valutaSi. saxsrebis miRebis ufleba aqvT uRaribes da naklebad
kreditunarin wevr-qveynebs Zalian dabali SemosavliT _ kreditebis
umetesoba gaicema qveynebze, romelTa mosaxleobis erT sulze saSualo
wliuri Semosavali Seadgens 800 dolars. bankis iRebs mxolod
sakomisios ¾3/4% odenobiT administraciuli xarjebis dasafarad. Aam
kreditebis mizania eqsportis stimulireba ganviTarebuli qveynebidan
Rarib qveynebSi. ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociaciaze modis mb
sakredito operaciebis mTliani moculobis 40%.
ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociaciis resursebi formirdeba
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis mogebisgan
gadaricxvebis, samrewveli ganviTarebuli qveynebis Senatanebisa
(saSualebebis Sevseba, rogorc wesi xdeba yovel sam wels), agreTve
dabrunebuli kreditebisgan.
146
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankisa da ganviTarebis
saerTaSoriso asociaciis meSveobiT mb gascems ZiriTadad ori saxis
kredits: sainvesticio kreditebs da kreditebs ganviTarebis miznebisTvis.
sainvesticio kreditebi gaicema socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
proeqtebis CarCoebSi sxvadasxva seqtorebSi saqonlis, samuSaoebis da
mosaxurebis warmoebis dasafinanseblad.
kreditebi ganviTarebis miznebisTvis (adre ewodeboda kreditebi
struqturuli cvlilebebisaTvis) gaicema finansuri resursebis
gamoyofis gziT politikuri da institucionaluri reformebis
mxardasaWerad.
proeqtebi, romlebic kreditdeba ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacis
xarjze, unda Seesatyvisebodes igeve standartebs, rac ganviTarebisa da
rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis mier dafinansebuli proeqtebi.
saerTaSoriso finansuri korporacia (Seqmnilia 1956w.) es orgnizacia
Seqmnilia wevr-qveynebSi ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyobis mizniT
sawrmoo sferoSi mewarmobis gnviTarebis stimulirebis gziT. mis
saqmianobaSi ZiriTadi yuradReba eqceva dasakreditebel qveyanaSi kerZo
mewarmeobis mxardaWeras da ucxouri kerZo investiciebs mozidvis
stimulirebas. kreditebi gaecema maRalrentabelur sawarmoebs 15 wlamde
vadiT (saSualod 5-dan 7 wlamde). Kkrediti faravs proeqtis
Rirebulebis mxolod 25%.
saerTaSoriso finansuri korporaciis kreditebis Tavisebureba
samTavrobo garantiebis moTxvnilebis arasebobaSia, gansxvavebiT
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankisa da ganviTarebis
saerTaSoriso organisaciisagan., ramdenadac kerZo kapitali iswrafvis
Tavi aaridos saxelmwifo kontrols. garda amisa saerTaSoriso
finansur korporacias 1961 wlidn gaaCnia ufleba saSualebebis uSualo
investirebisa sawarmos auqciunerul kpitalSi aqciebis Semdgomi
miyidviT kerZo investorebisaTvis. am SemTxvevaSi vlindeba msoflio
147
bankis jgufisaTvis maxasiaTebeli TanamSromlobis tendencia da ara
konkurencia kerZo investorebTan.
investiciebis garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagento (Seqmnilia 1988w.)
axorcielebs pirdapiri ivesticiebis dazRvevas arakomerciuli
riskebisgan (vadiT 15-dn 20 wlamde), konsultaciebs uwevs samTavrobo
organoebs ucxouri investiciebis sakiTxebSi. garda amisa axdens
sainvesticio SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb informaciis gavrcelebis da
ganviTarebad qveynebSi da gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi investirebis
xelSewyobis pirobebis Seqmnis reklamis miwodebas. investiciebis
garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagentos wevrebi arian mxolod ganviTarebisa
da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis wevrebi. finansirebis wyaroa misi
kapitli formirebuli wevr-qveynebis Senatanebisagan.
saeinvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso centri. Seiqmna 1966 w.
da imis Semdeg asrulebs ucxouri investorebsa da sesxis amReb
qveynebs Soris davebis regulirebaSi saerTaSoriso arbitris funqciebs.
amisaTvis is ganaxorcielebs SeTanxmebebs an saarbitraJo garCevebs
mxareebs Soris. amJamad sainvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso
centrisTvis sadavo sakiTxebiT mimaTvaze debuleba aris saerTaSoriso
sainvesticio SeTanxmebisa da xelSekrulebebis stndartuli punqti.
parizis klubi (1956w.) – wamyvani kreditor-qveynebis samTaroboTaSoriso
instituti aerTianebs 20 qveyanas. ganixileba qveynebis saxelmwifo valis
mixedviT gadaxadebis gadavadebis, daregulirebis problemebi. calmxrivi
moratoriumis asacileblad (gadasaxdebis gaadvadebis) kreditorebi
awarmoeben molaparakebebs movaleebTan ,,pirispis” sagareo valis
gadaxedvis pirobebze. misi saqmianobis dawyeba miekuTvneba 1956w.,
rodesac argentinis kreditorebi iqna miwveuli parizSi movaleebTan
molparakebaze. parizis klubis perioduli sxdomebi 70-an wlebSi
Seicvala 80-90-ani wlebSi aqtiuri muSobiT ganviTarebadi qveynebisa da
Semdeg aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis saxelmwifo valis dafarvasTan
dakavSirebuli problemebis gamwvavebis gamo. Pparizis klubis
sxdomebze eswrwbian damkvirveblebi saerTaSoriso savaluto fonididan,
148
ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis serTasoriso bankidan da Cveuilebriv,
ganixileba sagareo valis im nawilis sakiTxi, romelic unda iyos
dafaruli mimdinare wels.
Tu romelime movale saxelmwifo ganicdis sirTuleebs (kerZod
gadasaxadebis balansis balansirebSi) iwyebs gajnsaRebis programas
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis egidiT. parizis klubi mocemuli qveynis
mTavrobasTan erTad SeimuSavebs misi saxelmwifo sagareo valis
restruqturizaciis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebas.
londonis klubi _ 60-ze meti kerZo komerciuli bankebis saerTaSoriso
gaerTianeba, formirebulia 70-an wlebSi im problemebis gadawyvetis
mizniT, romlebic warmoiSva imis gamo rom rigi qveyana (uwinaresad
ganviTarebadebi) ver uzrunvelyofen sagare valis regularul
momsaxurebas. ganixilavs movale qveynebis kerZo sagareo davalianebis
daregulirebis problemebs. Sedegad Cndeba sagadasaxdelo balansis
pasiuri saldos Semcirebis SesaZlebloba saqonlisa da kapitalis
importis moculobis Semcirebis gareSe. londonis klubi, gansxvavebiT
parizisis klubisa aregulirebs kerZo komerciuli bankebis winSe
arsebul davalianebebis sakiTxebs, romlis kreditebi ar imyofeba
saxelmwifo garantiebis an dazRvevis qveS. savalo problemebis
gadawyvetis ZiriTadi meTodebia: davalianebis restruqturizacia,
dafarvis gadavadeba ganaxlebadi kreditebis gacema.
ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebi Seqmnilia 20-e saukunis 60-an wlebSi
aziaSi, afrikaSi, amerikaSi kolonialuri sistemis daSlis Semdeg. maTi
Seqmnis mizezebia ganviTarebadi qveynebis mier politikuri
damoukideblobis mopovebasTan dakavSirebiT maTi rolis cvlileba da
nacionaluri da regionaluri problemebis koleqtiuri gadwyvetis
aucilebloba. ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebis ricxvSi Sedian
ganviTarebis aziuri banki, ganviTarebis amerikuli banki, ganviTarebis
afrikuli banki, ganviTarebis islamuri banki, ganviTarebis yaribis banki,
ganviTarebis aRmosavleT afrikuli banki, ganviTarebis centraluri
afrikis banki da sxva. wevrebi arian, rogorc regionis saxelmwifoebi,
149
aseve araregionuli saxelmwifoebi, m.S. ganviTarebulebi. ganviTarebuli
qveynebi Seadgenen daaxloebiT 1/3. maT ekiTvniT sawesdebo kapitalis
mniSvnelovani nawili, rac aZlevs maT SesaZleblobas mniSvnelovani
gavlena hqondeT bankis saqmianobaze.
regionaluri bankebis miznebia regionis qveynebis ekonomikuri
ganviTarebis, TanamSroblobisa da saocialuri progresis xelSewyoba,
davalianebisa da siRatakis Semcireba, qalebis mdgomareobis
gaumjobeseba, kerZo seqtoris ganviTarebis xelSewyoba, bunebis
racionaluri gamoyenebis uzrunvelyofa.
regionaluri bankebis resursebi Sedgeba sawesdebo kapitalis, kapitalis
saerTaSoriso bazrebze sesxebis gziT moziduli saSualebebis, da
agreTve specialuri fondebisagan, romlebic Seqmnilia ZiriTdad bankis
wevr qveynebis Senatanebis xarjze teqnikuri daxmarebis gawevisa d
SeRavaTiani dakreditebisaTvis.
bankis operaciebi mimarTulia ekonomikuri ganviTarebis yvela
mimarTulebis mxardaWeaze, magram prioritetulia sociluri d
ekonomikuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebis dafinnseba (energetikis,
transportis, komunikaciebis da a.S.), agreTve soflis meurneobis. bankis
resursebis sakmaod didi nawili mimarTulia mrewvelobis dakreditebze.
ganviTarebis regionalur bankebSi dadgenilia resursebis formirebis,
nasesxi saSualebebis socialur sferoebSi mimarTvis erTini principi,
sakredito politika tardeba msoflio bnkis jgufis nimuSiT. amasTan
erTad arsebobs gansxvaveba ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebis
saqmianobaSi. isini ganisazRvreba sami kontinentis _ laTinuri amerika,
azia, afrika _ qveynebis ekonomikuri, socialuri da kulturuli
ganviTarebis sxvadasxva doniT, maTi istoriuli tradiciebis
TaviseburebebiT.
gaeros specializebuli dawesebulebis _ ekonomikuri sabWos mier
Seqmnilia 4 regionaluri komisia _ evropis, afrikis, aziis, laTinuri
amerikisaTvis. Bbolo orma xeli Seuwyo aziis ganviTarebis bankisa da
150
ganviTarebis amarikaTaSorisi bankis organizacias. am organizaciebs
avseben specialuri fondebi.
evrpuli ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis organizacia Seqnili 1948 w.
marSalis gegmis ganxorcielebis mizniT, Semdgom (1950-1958ww)
gadaorientirda evropuli sagadasaxdelo kavSiris Seqmnaze, xolo 1961w
is Senacvlebuli iqna ekonomnikuri ganviTarebisa da TanamSrolobis
organizaciiT (Orgnisation of Economic Cooperation and Devolopment).
evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis banki dafauZnes 1940 wels 40
qveyanam, agreTve evropis ekonomikurma Tanamegobrobam (amJamad
efrokavSiri) da evropis sainvesticio bankma. am saerTaSoriso
safinanso-sakredito institutis aqcionerebi SeiZleba iyvnen
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis wevri , rogorc evropuli aseve
araevropuo qveynebi. amJamad masSi Sedis 60 qveyana. Stab-bina londoni,
mraval QveyanaSi aqvs warmomadgenloba, romelic koordincis uwevs
adgilze.
evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis bankis miznebia centraluri
da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebisTvis sabazro ekonomikis SeqmnaSi
xelSewyoba da mravalpartiuli demokratiis, pluralizmis da sabazro
ekonomikis principebis momxre qveynebSi kerZo mewarmeobis ganviTarebis
mxardaWera. am miznebis realizebisaTvis banki mxarsuWers monawile
qveynebSi struqturuli da dargobrivi ekonomikuri reformebis
gatarebas, m.S. demonopolizaciis, decentralizaciis da privatizaciis
ganxorcielebisas; xels uwyobs erovnuli kapitlis mobilizebas da
ucxouri investiciebis mozidvas; axorcielebs investiciebs warmoebaSi
konkurentuli garemos Sesaqmnelad, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis
asamaRleblad da cxovrebis xarisxis gasaumjobeseblad. astimulirebs
kapitalis bazris ganviTarebas da sxv.
marTvis organoebia mmarTvelTa sabWo, direqtorebis sabWo da bankis
prezidenti. bankis xelmZRvaneli organoa mmarTvelTa sabWo, romelSic
Sedis TiTo qveynidan erTi mmarTveli da misi erTi moadgile.
151
mmarTvelTa sabWo ikribeba weliwadSi erTxel bankis
funqcionirebisaTvis starategiuli mniSvnelobis mqone sakiTxebis
gadasawyvetad.
mTavari aRmasrulebeli orgnoa direqtorebis sabWo, moicavs 23 wevrs,
roblebis gadarCeva xdeba yovel sam wels. is axocorielebs bankis
mimdinare saqmianobis xelmZrvanelobas, agreTve asrulebs mmarTvelTa
sbWos mier maze delegirebul uflebamosilebas. direqtorTa sabWos
yovel wevrs gaCnia xmaTa raodeneoba toli bankis aqcionerul kapitalSi
mowerili aqciebis raodenobis.
bankis prezidenti irCeva mmarTvelTa sabWos mier 4 wlis vadiT, is
Tavmjdomareobs direqtorTa sabWoze da marTavs bankis mimdinare
saqmianobas.
evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis bankis resursebi formirdeba
sawesdebo kapitalis, nasesxi (moziduli) saSualebebis da sesxebis
dafarvis an garntiebis mixedviT miRebuli saSualebebis xarjze. Ggarda
amisa socialurad mniSvnelovani daabal rentabeluri dargebis
invesrtirebisa da teqnikuri daxmarebis gawevisaTvis banki qmnis
specialur fondebs, romlis resursebi formirdeba donorebis
nebayoflobiTi Sentanebis xarjze.
bankis aqcioneruli kapitli Seadgens 20 mliard evros. maTi udidesi
wili ekuTvnis ganviTrebul qveynebs. centraluri evropisa da
aRmosavleT evropis kvota 13%. banki valdebulia Tavis resursebis
aranakleb 60% gamoiyenos kerZo seqtoris dakreditebisTvis _ kerZo
firmebis, privatizebuli saxelmwifo sawarmoebis, agreTve erToblivi
sawrmoebis. Ddakreditebis prioritetuli mimarTulebebia privatizaci da
struqturuli reformebi, finansuri sistema, energetika (atomuri
reaqtivebis CaTvliT), telekomunaciebi, transporti, ekologiuri
infrastruqtura, soflis meurneoba, bunebrivi resursebi da turizmi.
152
kreditis misaRebad komerciulma sawarmoebma an maTi saxeliT
moqmedebis uflebiT aRWurvilma Suamavlebma unda mimrTon uSualod
banks. rekomendebulia bankisTvis mimarTva proeqtze muSaobis sawyis
etapze, imisaTvis rom miiRon saWiro rekomendaciebi. potenciurma
msesxeblebma unda waradginon dawvrilebiTi cnobebi Tavis aqcionerebze,
saqmianobaze da proeqtze. Aam dros aucileblad xdeba bankis
ekologiuri politikis prioritetebis realizebis uzrunvelyofa. bankis
kreditis vadebi Seadgens 5-10 wels, kreditis minimaluri Tanxa _ 5 mln.
evro. Bbanks SeuZlia ufro naklebi krediti gasces, Tu qveynisaTvis
proeqti mniSvnelovania. dakrediteba warmoebs nebismier Tavisuflad
konvertirebad valutaSi, pratikaSi ZiriTdad _ dolarebSi da evroSi.
proeqtis finansireba Seadgens misi Rirebulebis 35%. kreditis ZiriTadi
Tanxis dafarva xdeba Tanbari nawilebiT yovel naxevarwels.
banki funqcionirebs komerciul safuZvelze da Tavis kreditebs gascems
sabazro ganakveTebiT. komerciuli sawarmoebis dakreditebisas banki
rogorc wesi ar iTxovs saSualebis dabrunebis samTavrobo garantiebs,
Tumca am SemTxvevaSi Cveulebiv iyenebs kreditis proeqtis aqtivebiT
sagiravano uzunvelyofas (magaliTad ZiriTad fondebze, moZrav
qonebaze da a.S.). ganakveTi kreditebis mixedviT SeiZleba iyos mcuravi da
fiqsirebuli, agreTve gamoiyeneba xejirebis sxvadasxva instrumentebis
Sexameba.
proeqtebis Tanadafinanseba xorcieldeba erToblivi dafinansebis,
praleluri finansirebis, sindicirebuli kreditis da sindicirebuli
monawileobis formiT.
evropis sainvesticio banki (luqsenburgi) kreditebs gascems 7-dan 12
wlmde vadiT, xolo ganviTarebad qveynebs 40 wlamde. mizania
evrokvSiris qveynebis CamorCenili regionebis ganviTareba, sawarmoebis
rekonstruqcia, erToblivi sameurneo obieqtebis Seqmna, prioritetuli
dargebis gnviTreba.
153
evropis ganviTarebis fondi (1958w.) atarebs evrokavSiris koleqtiur
politikas ganviTarebadi qveynebis mimarT, axdens am qveynebis
ganviTarebis oficialuri daxmarebis ormxrivi programebis
koordinacias.
soflis meurneobis orientaciisa da garantirebis evropuli fondi
(1969w.) xels uwyobs saerTo agraruli bazris Seqmnas da ganviTarebas
(,,mwvane evropa”).
regionaluri ganviTarebis evropuli fondi (1975w.) gascems kreditebs
evrokavSiris erToblivi biujetis saSulebebis xarjze wevr qveynebSi
regionaluri dispropociebis gamoTanabrebis mizniT, ramdenadac iq 25
uRatakesi raionia, romlis cxovrebis done 2,5 jer dabalia vinem 25
yvelaze ayvavebulSi.
evropis savaluto instituti (franqfuti maiamze, 1994 w,) man Secvala 1973
wels Seqmnili savaluto TanamSromlobis evropuli fondi _
zenacionaluri organo, 12 centraluri bankis mmarTvelebis
SemadgenlobiT, axorcielebs am bankebis fuladi da sakredito
politikis koordinacias, xels uwyobs evropuli centraluri bankebis
sistemis Seqmnas da erTin valutaze gadasvlas. maze gadavida ekiu-s
emisiis funqcia da wevr qveynebis blansis deficitis dasafarad
kreditebis gacema. 1998w. ivlisidan evropis savaluto instituti
Canacvlda evropis centraluri bankiT, romelic uSvebs evros. 1999w.
moqmedebs centraluri bankebis evropuli sistema, romelic moicavs
evropis centralur banks da evroze gadasul evrokavSiris qveynebis
centralur bankebs.
dasavleT evropis integraciis regionaluri svaluto-sakredito da
finansuri organizaciebi warmoadgenen misi institucionaluri
struqturis Semadgenel nawils.
saerTaSoriso sabanko statistika
154
safinanso-sakredito sistemaSi bankebi TamaSoben gansakuTrebul rols.
banki _ esaa safinanso dawesebuleba, romlis funqciebia:
fuladi saSualebebisa da dagrovebis akumulacia;
kreditebis gacema;
fulis, fasiani qaRaldebis emisia;
saxelmwifoebs, sawarmoebsa da calkeul pirebs Soris
angariSsworebebSi da gadaxdebSi Suamavloba.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba bankebis klasifikacia Semdegi
niSnebis mixedviT:
1. erovnuli kuTvnilebis mixedviT:
trasnacionaluri bankebi, maT mraval qveqanaSi gaaCniaT filialebi,
magram inarCuneben Tavis nacionalur kuTvnilebas;
mravalnacionaluri bankebi, romelTa damfuZneblebia rigi qveynis
msxvili bankebi (msoflio banki, evropis ganviTarebisa da
rekonstruqciis banki).
2. sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT:
saxelmwifo;
arasaxelwifo.
mocemuli niSniT klasifikaciis safuZvelia sawesdebo kapitalis
kuTvnileba da misi formirebis xerxebi.
3. sabanko saqmianobis mimarTulebebis mixedviT:
centraluri (sarezevo bankebi), yovelTvis saxelwifo bankia, im
SemTxvevaSic ki Tu ar flobs, an nawilobrivad flobs maT
kapitals;
emisiuri _ bankebi, romlebic saxelmwifos davalebiT
gansazRvraven fasiani qaRaldebis emisiis moculobas, pirobebs da
vadebs, Tavisi xarjebiT maTi SeZeniTa da gayidviT organizebas
ukeTeben maT ganTavsebas da meorad mimoqcevas;
ipoTekuri _ bankebi, romlebic specializdebian grZelvadiani
kreditebis gacemaze uZravi qonebis giravnobiT;
155
komerciuli _ aqcioneruli bankebi, romelTa ZiriTadi funqciebia
iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis Tavisufali fuladi saSualebebis
mozidva da maTi ganTavseba;
inovaciuri _ komerciuli bankebis nairsaxeobaa, maTi ZiriTadi
operaciebia _ venCuruli kapitalis, teqnikuri da teqnologiuri
procesebis dakrediteba. am bankis resursebi xels uwyobs
gamogonebebisa da siaxleebis danergvas, rac uzrunvelyofs
maRalefeqturi saxeobebis produqciis warmoebas, gamoSvebuli
teqnikis konkurentunarianobisa da teqnikuri donis zrdas;
saSemnaxvelo _ ZiriTadi funqcia fizikuri pirebis Tavisufali
fuladi saSualebebis mozidvaa. isini iReben mosaxleobis anabrebs
mimdinare da sxva angariSebze, gamoyofen samomxmareblo kredits,
uSveben sakredito baraTebs.
4. Sesasrulebeli operaciebis mixedviT:
universaluri. isini asruleben operaciebis mraval saxeobas da
momsaxurebas uweven klientebis farTo wres;
specializebuli. maTi saqmianoba ZiriTadad orientirebulia Tavisi
klientebis umetesobisaTvis momsaxurebis erTi-ori saxeobis
gawevaze. specializebuli bankebis sxva tipad SeiZleba iyos banki,
romelic emsaxureba klientebis mxolod gansazRvrul kategorias
(sabirJo, kooperatiuli) an gansazRvrul dargebs (dargobrivi
specializacia).
garda amisa specializebuli bankebis dayofa xorcieldeba teritoriuli
specializaciis niSniT:
regionaluri;
ragionTaSorisi;
saerTaSoriso.
sabanko operaciebi iyofa pasiurze da aqtiurze.
pasiuri operaciebi _ esaa bankebis mier, sakredito da sxva aqtiuri
operaciebis gasatareblad resursebis formirebis mizniT, Tavisufali
saSualebebis mozidva.
aqtiuri operaciebi _ esaa arsebuli resursebis ganTavseba grZelvadiani
da moklevadiani kreditebis gacemis, fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebebis da
a.S. meSveobiT.
156
saerTaSoriso sabanko sistemaSi Sedis iseTi bankebi, rogoricaa:
saerTaSoriso sainvesticio banki, Seqmnilia 1970 w. qveynebis
SeTanxmebis safuZvelze, qveynebis grZelvadiani da moklevadiani
dakreditebis mizniT.
ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis saerTaSoriso banki;
ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis Savi zRis banki;
ganviTarebis aziuri banki _ aziisa da Soreuli aRmosavleTis
yveynebisaTvis;
saerTaSoriso angariSsworebis banki.
bankebis, maT saqmianobaSi rogorc Sida bazarze, aseve sagareo
ekonomikur kavSirebSi, daxmarebis gasawevad 1991 wels dafuZnda
komerciuli bankebis saerTaSoriso asociacia. damfuZneblebi arian
centraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebi. am asociaciis ZiriTadi
miznebia:
qveynebisTvis xelSewyoba Tanamedrove sabanko struqturebisa da
bankTaSorisi TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaSi;
urTieT savaWro-ekonomikuri kavSirebis mxardaWera da gafarToveba
damfuZnebel qveynebs da agreTve maT da dasavleTis qveynebs Soris
fuladi sistemebi da fuladi mimoqcevis statistika
finansuri statistikis erT-erTi globaluri mimarTulebaa qveynis
fuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Seswavla. fuladi mimoqceva _ erovnuli
Semosavlis da sazogadoebrivi produqtis gacvlisa da ganawilebis
aucilebeli pirobaa. fuladi mimoqceva warmoadgens fulis moZraobas da
asrulebs mimoqcevis saSualebis, gadaxdis, fuladi rezervebisa da
danazogebis formirebis funqcias.
operaciebis erToblioba, romlis drosasac ama Tu im formiT
xorcieldeba fuladi saSualebebis moZraoba (gadacema) warmoadgens
fulad brunvas.
157
fuladi brunvis daxasiaTebisas ganasxvaveben naRd fulad brunvas,
romelic xorcieldeba naRdi fuliT, da unaRdo brunva, romelic
xircieldeba unaRdo angariSebis meSveobiT, fuladi saSualebebis
flobelebis mier sakredito dawesebulebebSi gaxsnili angariSebis
mixedviT Sesabamisi operaciebis ganxorcielebis gziT.
fuladi mimoqceva moicavs, rogorc saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
moZraobas, aseve sasesxo da fiqtiuri kapitalis (fasiani qaRaldebis)
moZraobas.
sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi sagadasxdelo brunvis mniSvnelovani
nawili modis finansur operaciebze, e.i. sxvadasxva saxeobis fasiani
qaRaldebis garigebebze, sasesxo operaciebze, sagadasaxdo gadaxdebze da
sxva finansur garigebebze. am dros gadaxdebis mniSvnelovani nawili
xorcieldeba unaRdo formiT.
fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:
fuladi mimoqcevis asaxva da fulis gaufasurebaze moqmedi
faqtrorebis Sefaseba;
bankebis salaroebSi da maTgan naRdi fulis moZraobis arxebis
gamovlena;
fulad mimoqcevaSi sezonuri ryevebis gansazRvra;
emisiis moTxovnilebis da mimoqcevidan fulis amoRebis
aucileblobis gansazRvra;
mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da xarjebis balansis analizi.
fuladi momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs:
fulad brunvas;
naRd fuls sabanko sistemis gareT;
unaRdo saSualebebs;
fulis mimoqevis siCqares;
brunvis xangrZlivobas;
fuladi masis kupiurul agebulobas;
158
indeqs-deflators;
laris msyidvelobiT unars;
angariSebze saxelmwifos oqros maragebiT, depozitebiT
operaciebis amsaxvel maCveneblebs;
saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobebSi valutasTan operaciebis
amsaxvel maCveneblebs.
mocemuli maCvenebelTa sistema efuZneba fulis iseT funqciebTan
dakavSirebul kategoriebs, rogoricaa Rirebulebis sazomi, mimoqcevis
saSualeba, gadaxdis, dagrovebisa da danazogis saSualeba.
fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvenelovani raodenobrivi maCvenebelia fuladi
masa, romelic warmoadgens sameurneo brunvis momsaxure da
saxelmwifos, kerZo pirebisa da dawesebulebebis kuTvnili
msyidvelobiTi da sagadasaxdelo saSualebebis erTobliv moculobas.
gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis da gansazRvrul periodSi fuladi
mimoqcevis raodenobrivi cvlilebebis analizisaTvis da agreTve fuladi
masis moculobis da zrdis tempebis regulirebis RonisZiebebis
SesamuSaveblad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva maCvenebeli _ fuladi agregatebi.
mTliani fuladi masa SeiZleba warmovidginoT, rogorc fuladi
agregatebis erToblioba, romelSic yoveli momdevno agregati moicavs
wina agregats.
TiToeul qveyanaSi arsebobs, likvidurobis donis mixedviT,
detalizaciis xarisxiT gansxvavebuli, fuladi agregatebis sakuTari
sistema. fulad masaSi ganasxvaveben:
aqtiur fuls (mosaxurebas uwevs naRd da unaRdo brunvas);
pasiur fuls (dagroveba, rezervebi, naSti angariSebze), romlTa
potenciuri gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia angariSsworebisaTvis.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi mTliani fuladi masa likvidurobis donis
mixedviT iyofa fulad agregatebze.
159
MO _ esaa naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi. naRdi fuladi masa Sedgeba
mosaxleobis xelT arsebuli naRdi fulisagan, iuridiuli pirebis
salaroebSi fuladi naStisa da sabanko dawesebulebebis sabrunav
salaroebSi arsebuli naRdi fulisagan.
mosaxleobaSi naRdi fulis arseboba imis Sedegia, rom fulis miReba da
daxarjva droSi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva. mosaxleobis naRdi fulis
raodenoba damokidebulia fuladi Semosavlebis moculobaze, maTi
miRebis sixSireze, saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT uzrunvelyofadobaze da
a.S.
naRdi fulis arsebobas adgili aqvs organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis
salaroebSi, maT mier sakaso operaciebis normaluri warmoebisaTvis.
fuladi agregati M1 = MO + depoziti moTxovnamde (angariSebi
moTxovnamde da saSualebebis naSts dawesebulebebis, opganizaciebisa da
sawarmoebis angariSze).
fuladi agregati M1 asrulebs fuladi masis sididis dominirebuli
maCveneblis rols. saxeldobr, agregati M1 axdens mTliani Sida
produqtis, erovnuli Semosavalis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis,
dagrovebisa da moxmarebis realizaciis operaciebis momsaxurebas. am
maCveneblis statistikuri aRricxva uzrunvelyofilia imiT, rom fulis
mniSvnelovani masa gadis depozituri dawesebulebebis angariSebiT.
agregati M1 moicavs fuladi brunvis yvela im saSualebebs, romelic
SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes konversiis, winaswari gayidvebis gareSe an
romelime sxva finansuei operaciis gaangarisebebSi da xasiaTdeba didi
likvidurobiT. fuladi masis danarCeni maCveneblebi SeiZleba
gamoyenebuli iqnes, gadasaxadebis saxiT, mxolod rigi Sualeduri
operaciebis Semdeg.
fuladi agregati M2 = M1 + uvado depozitebi. uvado depozitebi _ esaa
Semnaxvel da komerciul bankebSi iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis vadian
160
angariSebze (3 wlamde) narCeni saSualebebi. Tavisi SedgenilobiT M2
ramdenime jer aRemateba agregat M1.
fuladi agregati M3 = M2 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis sxva
depozitebi (sadazRvevo polisebi, fizikuri pirebis anabrebi 3 welze
meti vadiT, bankebis rezervebi da a.S.).
fuladi agregati M4 = M3+ saSualebebi fasian qaRaldebSi (aqciebi.
obligaciebebi, veqsili, da a.S.)
fuladi agregati M5 = M4 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis saSualebebi
ucxour valutaSi.
fuladi agregatebi agebulia maTi likvidobis klebadobis wesiT.
agregatebs Soris aucilebelia wonasworoba, sxvanairad dairRveva
fuladi mimoqceva.
saerTaSoriso standartebi iTvaliswineben 4-dan 7-mde fulad agregats.
sxvadasxva qveyanaSi fuladi masa nawildeba agregatebis sxvadasxva
ricxvebad. gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikaSi
upiratesobas aniWeben agregats, romelic aerTianebs naRd da depozitur
fuls. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi yvela qveynisaTvis gaiangariSebs
saerTo agregat M1, romelic moicavs naRd fuls da Cekuri anabrebis
yvela saxeobas.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciiT gaiangariSeba:
viwro fuli (agregati M1 saSualebebi);
kvazi-fuli (uvado da saSemnaxvelo sabanko angariSebi da bazarze
formirebadi yvelaze likviduri finansuri operaciebi);
farTo fuli = viwro fuli + kvazi-fuli.
zemoT CamoTvlili fuladi agregatebi _ esaa samomento maCveneblebi,
gaangariSebuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis (bolosaTvis). mTeli rigi
gaTvlebisaTvis saWiroa agregatebis saSualo zomaze monacemebi
161
periodis ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneben martivi saSualo
ariTmetikulis formulas:
iM_
= iM (peiodis dasawyisisaTvis) + iM (peiodis bolosaTvis)/2.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba Sesabamisi fuladi agregatis
wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. es maCvenebeli iwodeba monetarizaciis
(monetizaciis) koeficientad da axasiaTebs realizebuli mSp-s im nawils,
romelis uzrunvelyofa xdeba Sesabamisi agregatiT:
monetizaciis koeficienti = iM / mSp.
magaliTad, Tu agregati M1 Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan Seadgens
20%, maSin amboben, rom mSp-s 20% realizaciis uzrunvelyofa xdeba am
agregatiT.
monetizaciis koeficienti aris fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani
indikatori, ramdenadac misi donis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia mxolod
saerTaSoriso SedarebebiT. ganviTarebul qveynebSi monetizaciis
koeficienti (gaangariSebuli agregati M2 safuZvelze) Seadgens 60-dan
80%- mde.
mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenoba damokidebulia Semdeg faqtorebze:
mSp-is sidideze;
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqareze.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare xasiaTdeba ori maCvenebliT:
fuladi masis brunvis raodenobiT (br.r.);
erTi brunvis xangrZlivobiT (x.br.).
fuladi masis brunvis raodenoba ganisazRvreba mTliani Sida
produqtis zomis SefardebiT fuladi masis saSualo zomasTan (_
M ):
162
r.br. = mSp/_
M .
brunvadobis koeficienti uCvenebs saSualod Tu ramdeni brunva
ganaxorciela fuladma masam wlis ganmavlobaSi, sxva sityvebiT _ wlis
ganmavlobaSi ramdenjer iqna gamoyenebuli valuta saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis Sesasyidad. brunvis ricxvis zrdisas matulobs fuladi
masis mimoqcevis siCqare. es aris fuladi masis siCqaris maxasiaTebeli
pidapiri maCvenebeli.
erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi (D) periodSi sabanko
dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvis raodenobasTan.
x.br.= D/r.br.
saerTaSoriso standartebiT weliwadSi sabanko dReebis raodenoba
tolia 360 dRis, kvartalSi _ 180 dRis, TveSi _ 30 dRis. Ees maCvenebeli
axasiaTebs ramden dReSi ganxorcielda fuladi masis erTi brunva. Tu
dReebis raodeniba mcirdeba es niSnavs imas, rom erTi da igive
moculobis mTliani Sida produqtis momsaxurebisaTvis saWiroa naklebi
dReebi. es brunvis siCqaris uku maCvenebelia.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba iwvevs misi brunvidan
amoRebas (mimoqcevaSi gaSvebis), romelic ganisazRvreba formuliT:
M = (x.br.1 _ x.br.0)* mSp/D,
sadac mSp/D _ saangariSo periodSi mTliani Sida produqtis erTdRiuri
realizaciis zomaa.
am maCveneblebis gaangariSeba ganvixiloT cxrilSi motanili monacemebis
safuZvelze.
ori periodis fuladi masa da mTliani Sida produqti
maCveneblebi sabaziso periodi saangariSo periodi
163
mSp, f.e. 740 754
Fuladi masa, f.e. 280 320
gaviangariSoT brunvadobis koeficienti:
1. sabaziso periodSi: Kbr0 = 740/280=2,6 jer;
2. saangariSo periodSi: Kbr1 = 754/320=2,4 jer;
es niSnavs imas ,rom fuladi masa sabaziso periodSi dabrunda 2,6 jer,
saangariSo periodSi ki 2,4 jer (e.i. mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda).
gaviangariSoT erTi brunvis xaangrZlivoba
1. sabaziso periodSi: x.br.0 = 360/2,6=138,5 dRe;
2. saangariSo periodSi: x.br1 = 360/2,4=150 dRe;
vinaidan fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda, 754 f.e. zomis
mTliani Sida produqtis realizaciis uzrunvelsayofad saWiro gaxda
damtebiT fulis Tanxis CarTva, romelic tolia:
M = (150 _ 138,5)*754/360 =24,1 f.e.
brunvadobis koeficienti da erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba
urTierTakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan. es niSnavs imas, rom Tu mocemuli
maCveneblebidan cnobilia erTi, maSin SeiZleba meores povna. ase, Tu
cnobilia brunvaTa ricxvi, maSin erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba (x.br)
SeiZleba vipovoT Semdegnairad:
x.br.= D/ Kbr =360/2,6=138,5 dRe.
Tu cnobilia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba, maSin brunvaTa ricxvi
moiZebneba formuliT:
r.br. = D/ = x. br =360/138,5=2,6jer.
saangariSo periodSi fuladi masis brunvaTa raodenobis cvlileba
sabazisoTan SedarebiT ganpirobebulia ori faqtoris gavleniT: mTliani
Sida produqtis da mimoqcevaSi fuladi masis zomis cvlilebebiT.
164
pirveli faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:
r.br.(mSp) = mSp1 _ mSp0 / 1M = 754 _ 740/320 = 0,04jer.
meore faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:
r.br.(M ) = mSp0 / 1M _ mSp0/ 0M = 740/320 _ 740/280 = _0,33jer,
sadac 1M da 0M _ fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso
periodebSi.
am dros unda iyos daculi Semdegi toloba:
r.br. = r.br.(mSp) +r.br.(M ), 2,4 _ 2,6 = 0,04+ (_0,33).
gansxvaveba ganpirobebulia damrgvalebebiT.
maSasadame, fuladi masis 40 f.e. gadidebam gamoiwvia misi brunvis
siCqaris 0,33 brunviT Semcireba, xolo mSp-is gadidebam 0,04 brunviT
gazarda mimoqcevis siCqare.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris Seswavlisas gansakuTrebulad
mniSvnelovania naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizi, e.i. agregati
MO. fuladi masidan am agregatis gamoyofiT, miviRebT fuladi masis
mimoqcevis siCqaris models: mSp/M= mSp/ MO* MO/ M.
am modelis Cawera SeiZleba gamartivebuli saxiT: r.br= a*b, sadac MO/ M
aris naRdi fulis wili saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevaSi.
es modeli iZleva naRdi filis brunvis siCqaris (a) da saerTo fulad
masaSi maTi wilis (b) cvliebebiT ganpirobebuli fulis mimoqcevis
siCqaris absoluturi matebis gansazrvris saSualebas.
saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi cvlileba
ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad: r.br. = r.br1 _ r.br0.
mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (a) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(a). = (a1 _ a0)* b1
mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (b) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(b) = (b1 _ b0)* a1
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fuladi saSualebebis yidva-gayidvisas yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi
saprocento ganakvTebis saxeobebis sistematizireba SesaZlebelia
Semdegi niSnebiT:
1. sasesxo kapitalis bazris seqtorisadmi mikuTvnebulobaze
damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben: saaRricxvo ganakveTs
(refinansirebis ganakveTi, oficialuri saprocento ganakveTebi);
sakredito resursebis miwodebis bankTaSorisi ganakveTebs;
sabaziso ganakveTebs; fizikuri pirebis, mcire da saSualo biznesis
dakreditebis ganakveTs; depozitur ganakveTs;
2. procentebis daricxvis bazaze damokidebulebis mixedviT
ganasxvaveben: martiv saprocento ganakveTebs; rTul saprocento
ganakveTebs.
3. gacemuli fuladi saSualebebis gamoyenebaze Semosavlis gadaxdis
an procentebis daricxvis momentze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben:
antisipativur saprocento ganakveTebs; dekursul saprocento
ganakveTebs.
4. procentis daricxvisas garigebis funqcionirebis dReebis ricxvis
gamoyenebaze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben: Cveulebriv saprocento
ganakveTebs; wertilovan saprocento ganakveTebs.
5. inflaciuri procesebis gavlenaze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben:
nominalur saprocento ganakveTebs; realur saprocento
ganakveTebs.
inflaciis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da maTi
gaangariSebis meTodika
inflacia aris rTuli cneba, romelic moicavs:
moTxovnis inflacias (warmoebis vardnisas izrdeba moTxovna
saqonelze. saxezea maTi deficiTi da fasebis Semdgomi zrda);
danaxarjebis inflacias _ fasebis zrda sawarmoo resursebze da
nedleulze;
adaptiur inflaciur molodins (fasebis savaraudo zrdisas ar
xdeba fuladi saxsrebis dagroveba, aramed intensiurad ixarjeba
sasaqonlo-materialur faseulobebze).
166
mimdinareobis xasiaTis mixedviT ganasxvaveben Ria da farul inflacias.
Ria inflacia gansxvavdeba fasebis xangrZlivi zrdiT. faruli
inflaciisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia: saqonlis deficiti, gadadebuli
moTxovna, mudmivi fasebi. Ria inflacia gaizomeba samomxmareblo fasebis
indeqsiT, xolo faruli _ inflaciis indeqsiT.
nebismieri qveynis ekonomikis mdgomareobis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebelia
inflaciis done. inflaciis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba
Semdegi maCveneblebi:
fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris indeqsi;
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi);
mTliani Sida produqtis fasebis indeqsi (deflatori);
fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris indeqsi uCvenebs Tu ramdenjer ufasurdeba
fuladi erTeuli da gaiangariSeba formuliT:
I fulis msyid. unaris =1/ I samomxmareblo fasebis.
urTierTkavSiri fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris, mSp-isa da fuladi masis
moculobas Soris iZleva maTi dinamikis detaluri Seswavlis
saSualebas, romelic warmodgenilia Semdegi saxis damokidebulebiT:
IIII vMp :* mSp,
sadac pI aris mSp-is indeqs-deflatori;
MI _ fuladi masis indeqsi;
vI _ fuladi masis brunvadobis indeqsi;
I mSp _ mTliani Sida produqtis fizikuri moculobis indeqsi.
mTliani Sida produqtis indeqs-deflatori gaiangariSeba formuliT:
,10
11
qP
qPI p (paSes formula)
167
sadac 11qP mSp-is moculobaa mimdinare fasebSi;
10qP mimdinare periodis mSp-is moculoba, gansazRvruli
sabaziso periodis mixedviT (mudmiv fasebSi).
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi uCvenebs, sabaziso moxmarebis donis
ucvlelobis pirobebSi, Tu ramdenad Seicvala mimdinare periodSi
mosaxleobis xarjebi momsaxurebisa da keTildReobis fiqsirebuli
nakrebis SeZenaze sabazisoTan SedarebiT. Dis gaiangariSeba formuliT:
I samomxmareblo fasebis
00
00
qP
qiP (lasperesis formula).
sadac pi arisi dividualuri indeqsi TiToeuli saqonel-warmomadgenelis
mixedviT;
00 pq _ TiToeuli saqonel-warmomadgenelis Rirebuleba.
fuladi masis kupiuruli Semadgenlobis mdgomareobisa da dinamikis
dasaxasiaTeblad da cvlilebebis gamosavlenad saWiroa informacia
saSualo kupiuris sidideze, romlis gaangariSeba SeiZleba Sewonili
saSualo ariTmetikulis formuliT:
_
m = ,
f
mf
sadac m aris kupiuris Rirseba;
f _ kupiurebis raodenoba.
saprocento ganakveTis zoma, nebismieri saxeobis kreditis an
fiqsirebuli Semosvalis instrumentis mixedviT, damokidebulia mTel
rigi faqtorze, maTgan yvelaze mniSvnelovania gaangariSebiTi fuladi
erTeuli, gadasaxdelis vada da msesxeblis mier sakredito SeTanxmebis
pirobebis ar Sesrulebis riski, an defoltis riski.
gaangariSebiTi fuladi erTeuli warmoadgens fulad erTeuls,
romelSic xorcieldeba gadaxdebi. rogorc wesi, gadaxdis erTeuli aris
168
ama Tu im qveynis valuta. zogjer erTeulis saxiT gamodis romelime
saqoneli, magaliTad oqro, vercxli an saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
standartuli ,,kalaTa“.
gadasaxdelis vada fiqsirebuli SemosavliT instrumentebis mixedviT _
esaa dro, romlis ganmavlobaSi saWiroa mTliani nasesxi Tanxis gadaxda.
saprocento ganakveTi moklevadiani instrumentebiT SeiZleba iyos
grZelvadiani instrumewntebis mixedviT ganakveTze maRali, dabali an
misi toli.
msesxeblis mier sakredito SeTanxmebis pirobebis ar Sesrulebis riski
warmoadgens albaTobas imisa, rom fiqsirebuli SemosavliT
instrumentebis mixedviT valis ZiriTadi Tanxa an procentis romelime
nawili ar iqneba gadaxdili msesxeblis mier.
leqcia 9. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi da Taviseburebebi
2. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema 3. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis informaciis wyaroebi da
ZiriTadi maCveneblebis gaangariSebis meTodika 4. mosaxleobis aRwerebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi etapebi da maTi
daxasiaTeba 5. demografiuli prognozebi
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri
safuZvlebi da Taviseburebebi
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika statistikuri
mecnierebis damoukidebeli dargia. pirveli naSromebi demogafiaSi jer
kidev me-18s. gaCnda, xolo 1853w. SemuSavebul da miRebul iqna pirveli
saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi xalxTmosaxleobis statistikaSi.
demografiuli statistikis Seswavlis obieqtia gansazRvrul
teritoriaze mcxovreb pirTa erToblioba, e.i mosaxleoba.
169
serTaSoriso statistikur pratikaSi, teritoriis mocvis mixedviT,
gamoyofen:
1. mTlinad dedamiwis mosaxleobas;
2. dedamiwis calkeuli regionebis mosaxleobas;
3. saxelmwifoTaSorisi gaerTianebebis mosaxleobas.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis sagans warmoadgens saerTa _
Soriso doneze mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, Semadgenlobis, moZraobis da
aRwrmoebis cvlilebis raodenobrivi kanonzomierebebi.
ramdenadac materiluri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis mTavari
mwarmoeblebi da momxmareblebi arian adamianebi, amdenad demogrfiuli
procesebis da mTlianad mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis tendenciebi pirdapir
aisaxeba im urTierTobebze, romelic yalibdeba calkeul saxelmwifoebs
Soris, gansakuTrebiT iseT sibrtyeSi, rogoricaa SromiTi migraciis,
warmoebis samuSao ZaliT uzrunvelyofis, erovnuli samomxmareblo
bazrebis parametrebis transformaciis da sxva.
saerTaSoriso demografiul statistikas, xalxTmosaxleobis
mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis donis gamokvlevis Sesatyvisad, gaaCnia
rigi Taviseburebebi.
pirveli, demografiuli procesebisa da movlenebis analizma unda
moicvas sami urTerTdakavSirebuli aspeqti: globaluri, regionaluri da
saxelmwifoTaSorisi.
globaluri aspeqti gulisxmobs demografiuli procesebis gamokvlevas
da im problemebis gaazrebas, romlebic exeba Cveni planetis yvela
mcxovrebs maTi saxelmwoebriv mikuTvenbaze (moqalaqeoba) da
sacxovrebel adgilze damoukideblad. uwinaresd es exeba mTlianad
dedamiwis mosaxleobis ricxovnobis zrdis, misi aRwarmoebis parmetrebis
sakiTxebs, da agreTve adamianuri populaciis raodenobriv Tanafardobas
sursaTis, enrgiis, resursebis da sasargeblo wiaRiseulis maragebTan da
170
a.S. es dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom dedmiwis sivrcebrivi sazRvrebi da
resursebi atareben SezRudul xasiaTs.
regionaluri aspeqti ZiriTdad ukavSirdeba dedamiwis teritoriaze
mosaxleobis ganTavsebis analizs, kontinentTaSorisi migraciuli
nakadebis ganxilvas da dedamiwis sxvdsxva regionSi mosaxleobis
aRwarmoebisa da moZraobis Taviseburebebis gamorkvevas.
saxelmwifoTaSoris aspeqtSi moiazreba rogorc calkeuli
saxelmwifoebis, agreTve sxvadasxva kriteriumiT Seqmnili maTi jgufebis
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, ganTavsebis, Semadgenlobis, bunebrivi da
migraciuli moZraobis parametrebis SedarebiTi statistikuri
daxasiaTeba. amis aqtualoba ganpirobebuli imiT, rom demografiuli
situaciis specifika ganviTrebul da ganviTrebad qveynebSi, ek-s, nato-s
da sxva politikuri da ekonomikuri gaerTianebis qveynebSi seriozulad
ganaპირობებს saxelmwifoTaSoris urTierTobebs saerTSoriso cxovrebis
yvelaze gansxvavebul dargebSi.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meore mniSvnelovani
Tavisebureba mdgomareobs imaSi rom is umetesad orientirebulia ara
mxolod da ara imdenad calkeuli qveynebis da maTi regionaluri,
politikuri, ekonomikuri da sxva gaerTianebis demografiuli
indikatorebis Sefasebze, ramdenad saerTaSoriso Sedarebebze, romlebic
iZleva msoflio ekonomikaSi maTi rolisa da adgilis garkvevis
SesaZleblobas.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis mesame Tavisebureba ukvSirdeba
misi informaciuli bazis rig SezRudvebs, gamowvels imiT rom msoflios
yvela qveyana ar iTvaliswinebs saerTaSoriso organizaciebis
rekomendaciebs mimarTuls statistikuri aRricxvis, maT Soris
mosaxleobis dargSi standartiszciasa da unificirebaze. ris gamoc
mosaxleobis aRwerebisa da mimdinre aRricxvis orgnizebisadmi
midgomebi, agreTve SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis xerxebi sxvadasxva qveyanaSi
srulad ar emTxeveva erTmaneTs. es garemoeba mniSvnelovnad aisaxeba
171
demografiuli informaciis Sesadarisobaze (aRwerebis Catarebis
periodulobis, vadebis, TariRebis ar damTxvevis Sedegad; bunebrivi da
migrciuli moZraobis ganmartebis gansxvavebuloba da a.S.). Sida
viTarebis Taviseburebebis gamo rig qveyanaSi mosaxleobis statistika
arasruli an nawyvet-nawyveti xasiaTisaa, rac arTulebs, zog SemTxvevaSi
ki SeuZlebels xdis demografiuli situciis statistikuri
daxasiaTebebis miRebas da saeraSoriso Sedarebebis ganxorcielebas.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meoTxe Tavisebureba
mdgomareobs imaSi rom monacemTa publikacias axasiaTebs dagvianebis
xangrZlivi lagi. msoflios yveynebSi demografiul situacize
informacia specialistebisa da farTo sazogdoebisTvis misawvdomia
naxevari - erTi wlis dagvianebiT, saerTaSoriso statistikur
publikaciebs ki axasiaTebs dagvianebis bevrad didi periodi. es
dakvSirebulia demogafiuli moncemebis mopovebis da aseve mis Sesadaris
formaSi moyvanis problemebTan. xSirad saerTaSoriso statistika
iZulebulia gamoiyenos ar empiriuli moncemebi, aramed eqspertuli
Sefasebebi da saprognozo gaangariSebebi, ramdenadac mxolod am
xerxiTaa SesaZlebeli mosaxleobze aqtualuri monacemebis miReba
Znelad misawvdom raionebSi da saomari moqmedebiTa da epideemiiT
mocul saxelmwifoebSi.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi
emyareba saerTaSoriso socialuri statistikis meTodologias da
mkacrad dacul maCvenebelTa sistemas, romelic axasiaTebs socialur
urTierTobaTa cvlilebis dinamikas, dones, struqturas da maTi
kavSirebis kanonzomierebebs drosa da sivrceSi.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs
oTx ganyofilebas:
1. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, Semadgenlobis da ganTavsebis
maCveneblebi:
172
gansazRvrul teritorize mcxovrebi sxvadasxva jgufis
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba da xvedriTi wona;
mosaxleobis faqtiuri simWidrove;
mosaxleobis ganawileba qveynis regionebsa da dasaxlebis
tipebs Soris;
mosaxleobis Semadgenloba sqesis, asakis, qorwinebis,
ojaxuri mdgomareobis, erovnebis, enis, aRsareblobis
mixedviT da sxv.
am ganyofilebis daxasiaTebebi asaxavs mosaxleobis faqtiurad miRweul
mdgomareobas.
2. mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis maCveneblebi:
Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da ganqorwinebis
ricxovnoba;
mosaxleobis Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da
ganqorwinebis saerTo koeficientebi;
mosaxleobis Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da
ganqorwinebis asakobrivi koeficientebi;
mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis koeficienti;
Sobdobis speciluri koeficienti;
Sobadobis jamuri koeficienti;
Cvil bavSvTa mokdavobis koeficienti;
sicocxlianobis indeqsi da sxv.
3. mosxleobis migraciuli moZrobis maCveneblebi;
SemosulTa da gasulTa ricxovnoba;
migraciis saldo;
mosaxleobis Semosvlisa da gasvlis saerTo koeficientebi;
mosaxleobis migraciuli matebis koeficienti;
migraciis efeqturoba da sxv.
meore da mesame ganyofilebis maCveneblebi axdenen, migraciuli da
bunebrivi moZraobis xarjze, sazogadoebrivi ganviTarebis fqtorebis
mxasiaTebeli parametrebis akumulirebas.
4. sazogadoebis demografiuli ganviTarebis Sedegebisa da
aRwarmoebis maCveneblebi:
mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto da bruto koeficientebi;
173
mosxleobis mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo
xangrZlivoba;
mosaxleobis saerTo absoluturi mateba (kleba);
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis zrdis (matebis) tempi;
mosaxleobis ekonomikuri da demografiuli datvirTvis
koeficientebi da sxv.
meoTxe gnyofilebis maCveneblebi orientirebulia Taobis Canacvlebis da
mosxleobis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis cvlilebis ganmapirobebeli
demografiuli procesebis urTierTqmedebis SedegebTa ganzogdebul
Sefasebaze.
saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis informaciis wyaroebi da
ZiriTadi maCveneblebis gaangariSebis meTodika
mosaxleobaze informaciis miRebis sami wyaro arsebobs:
aRwera;
mimdinare aRricxva;
mosaxleobis SerCeviTi gamokvleva
demografiuli prognozebi.
mosaxleobis aRwera aris mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da Semadgenlobaze
monacemTa Segrovebis, ganzogadebis da analizis mecnierulad
organizebuli procesi. aRwera udavod iZleva yvelaze srul
demografiul suraTs, ramdenadac axasiaTebs, drois gansazRvruli
momentis mdgomareobiT, qveynis yovel mcxovrebs. am periodamde
gardacvlilebi an am periodis Semdeg dabadebulebi ar aRiricxeba.
SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRwera iZleva mosaxleobis momentur suraTs.
monacebi, romelic surT miiRon arweris Sedegad SeaqvT egreT wodebul
aRweris programaSi. qveynebis umetesobaSi aRweris programis kiTxvebis
dagzavna xdeba fostiT anketebis saxiT. zogjer moiTxoven masSi ara
marto dabadebis TariRis, sqesis, asakis, qorwinebis, bavSvebis
raodenobis, aramed dasaqmebis saxeobis, dasaqmebaSi mdgomareobis
(mesakuTre an daqiravebuli muSaki), Semosavlis wyaros miTiTebas. garda
174
amisa, aRweris programa moicavs kiTxvebs mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis
codnis, profesiuli kvalifikaciis, swavlebis wlebis ricxvze.
aRwerebis Catarebis praqtikaSi arc Tu ise iSviaTia kiTxvebi
moqalaqeobaze, omSi monawileobaze, fsiqiur da fizikur naklovanebebze
da agreTve aRmsareblobaze, mSobliur da sasaubro enaze da sxv.
CamoTvlil sakiTxebs emateba kidev erTi savaldebulo _ aRweris
kritikuli momentisaTvis mcxovrebis adgilsamyofeli (arweris zusti
TariRisaTvis). amdagvarad xdeba mosaxleobis aRricxva, misi mudmivi
sacxovrebeli adgilis, da agreTve saxlis gareT yofnis xangrZlivobis
mixedviT. am monacemebis safuZvelze igeba Sida da gare migraciis ruqebi.
Tu aRweris programaSi aris Setanili kiTxva samuSaos an swavlebis
adgilis daSorebaze, maSin Rebuloben monacemebs egreT wodebul
qanqarisebriv migraciaze. zogjer, ufro dawvrilebiTi informaciis
dasamuSaveblad, programaSi SeaqvT qorwinebaSi yofnis welTa ricxvi,
qorwinebis ricxvi, ganqorwinebis mizezebi. gvxvdeba cxovrebis pirobebis
gamokvlevebic: oTaxebis raodenoba, romelic ukavia ojaxs, gaTbobis
wyaro da a.S.
rogorc Cans aRweris programis motanili kiTxvebi ZiriTadad exeba
sazogadoebis saerTo demografiul parametrebs. praqtikaSi es
gamokvleva iZleva ufro Rrma msjelobis saSualebas. am dros unda
avRniSnoT rom, rodesac aRwera iZleva socialur-ekonomikuri xasiaTis
specifikur informacias, gamodian konkretuli erovnuli situaciidan.
magaliTad, Tu aSS mniSvnelovania gare migraciis sakiTxebi, maSin
aRweraSi aucilebelia kiTxva wina sacxovrebel adgilze. indoeTSi erT-
erTi mTavari sakiTxia eTnikuri mikuTvnebis sakiTxi, aRmosavleTis
zogierTi qveqnisTvis ki _ aRmsareblobis sakiTxi.
swored demografiul infmaciaze moTxovnilebam sawyisi Cauyara
saaRwero statistikas, romlis warmoeba daiwyo jer kidev me-3 s. C.w.a.
aziis saxelmwifoebSi.
175
mosaxleobis mimdinare aRricxva warmoebs aRwerebs Soris periodSi. is
gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis bolo aRweris monacemebis yovelwliuri
koreqtirebisaTvis.
koreqtirebis arsi mdgomareobs imasSi, rom ama Tu im teritoriaze
mcxovrebTa ricxvs emateba dabadebulTa da CamosulTa ricxvi da
akldeba gardacvlilTa da gasul mcxovrebTa ricxvi. aRweris
monacemebis koreqtireba tardeba yoveli wlis 1 ianvris mdgomareobiT. am
dros erTi wliT adre dgindeba mosaxleobis ricxovnobis savaraudo
cvlilebis varianti. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sefasebas axdenen ori
kategoriis mixedviT: mudmiv da saxeze myofis. maT Soris sxvaoba
pirobiTad miiReba ucvlel doneze. mimdinare wlis dekemberSi
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sefasebisas gamoiyeneba 10 Tvis ganmavlobaSi
mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis Sedegi (dabadebulTa ricxvs
gamoklebuli gardacvlilTa ricxvi), romlis gadatana xdeba momaval
welze, da mimdinare wlis 9 Tvis migraciis Sedegebi, romelic aseve
eqstrapolirdeba Semdeg welze. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis saboloo
Sefasebisas, rogorc wesi, martSi, gamoiyeneba eqspertuli koreqtirebis
monacemebi, romelic iZleva demografiuli movlenebis aRricxvisas
daSvebuli Secdomebis aRmofxvris saSualebas.
amdagvarad, mosaxleobis sayovelTao aRwerebs Soris SualedebSi
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba ganisazrvreba gaangariSebiTi gziT bolo
aRweris monacemebisa da mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis
monacemebis safuZvelze sabalaso sqemiT:
wlis dasawyisisaTvis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba + wlis ganmavlobaSi
dabadebulTa ricxvi + wlis ganmavlobaSi SemosulTa ricxvi _ wlis
ganmavlobaSi gardacvlilTa ricxvi _ wlis ganmavlobaSi gasulTa
ricxvi = wlis bolosTvis mosaxleobis ricxvs.
aSkaraa, rom mosaxleobis sayovelTao aRwerasa da mis mimdinare
aRricxvas Soris arsebobs pirdapiri kavSiri.
176
mosaxleobaze da demogrfiul procesebze damatebiTi, magram
mniSvnelovani wyaroa mosaxleobis SerCeviTi gamokvleva. amdgavri
gamokvlevebis programebi atareben ufro detalur xasiaTs vidre
mosxleobis aRweris progrmebi. gamokvlevebi, dafuZnebuli SerCeviT
meTodze frTodaa gavrcelebuli msoflios sxvdasxva qveynis
statistikur praqtikaSi.
mrval qveyanaSi funqcionirebs mosaxleobis ricxovnobis calkeul
daxasiaTebebTan SekavSirebiT gaangariSebis instumenti _ mosaxleobis
registri. esaa regularulad aqtivizirebadi qveynis macxovreblebis
CamonaTvali, romelic moicavs kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili personaluri
daxasiaTebebis nakrebs da gamoiyeneba saxelmwifo marTvis miznebisaTvis.
aRricxvis am saxeobis Tavisebureba mdgomareobs, yoveli mcxovrebisTvis
araganmeorebadi saidetifikacio nomris miniWebis gziT, individualuri
moncemebis Senaxvasa da regulrul ganaxlebSi. evropis im qveynebis
gamocdileba, romlebic awarmoeben mosaxleobis registrs, adasturebs,
rom mosaxleobis erovnul (centralur) registrSi monacemebi
aqtualizdeba mosaxleobze monacemebis Semcvel specializirebul
registrebTan urTierTqmedebiT, magaliTad uZravi qonebis registrTan,
socialuri dazRvevis registrTan, gadasaxadis gadamxdelTa registrTan
da sxv.
demografiuli monacemebis miRebis mesame wyaroa mosaxleobis
perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebebi (demogrfiuli prognozebi),
romlebic keTdeba, rogorc aRwerebis, aseve mimdinare statistikuri
aRicxvis monacemebis safuZvelze.
mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gasangariSeblad gamoiyeneba
asakis mixedviT gadaadgilebis (asakgadanacvlebis) meTodi. am meTodis
arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom Tavis asakobriv jgufSi aRweriT
daregistrirebuli adamianTa gansazRvruli raodenoba (SX, t) erTi wlis
Semdeg gadadis DSemdeg asakobriv jgufSi, magram ara mTlianad, aramed
gardacvlilTa gamoklebiT, romelic gaiangariSeba mokvdavobis cxrilis
mixedviT asakmiRwevis koeficientis safuZvelze (PX). Tu (SX, t)
177
gadavamravlebT (PX), maSin miviRebT erTi wlis Semdeg momdevno
asakobriv jgufSi mcxovrebTa ricxvs (SX+1, t +1). momdevno wlebisaTvis
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis gansasazRvrelad es operacia meordeba, am
dros xdeba kidev migraciis saldosa (Semusulebsa da gasulebs Soris
sxvaoba) da dabadebulTa mosalodneli ricxovnobis gaTvaliswineba.
dabadebulTa mosalodneli ricxovnoba miiReba, rogorc fertiluri
asakis (15 _ 49 weli) qalebis ricxovnobisa da, Sobadobis cxrilis
mixedviT TiToeuli asakis Sesatyvisi, Sobadobis koeficientis namravli.
mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebis formulas gaaCnia
Sendegi saxe:
(SX+1, t +1) =(SX, t)* P(X, t)+W(X, t),
sadac W(X, t) aris mosaxleobis meqanikuri moZraobis saldo.
asakgadanacvlebis meTodi da eqstrapolacia dasaSvebia moklevadiani (5
wlamde periodis momcveli) prognozebis gaangariSebisas. Tu
perspeqtiuli gaangariSeba warmoebs ufro xangrZlivi periodisaTvis, e.i.
rogorc grZelvadiani prognozi, maSin, rogorc wesi, gamoiyeneba
scenarebis meTodi.
scenaris meTodis dros aucilebelia saprognozo Sefasebebis sami
variantis Sedgena, romlebic iTvaliswineben demografiul procesebTan
dakavSirebul da maT ganviTarebaze moqmedi ori faqtoris Sesatyvis
cvlilebebs. zustad aseT meTodikas iyeneben gaeros statistikuri
organizaciebi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis prognozebis Sedgenisas. isini
gaiangariSeben samscenariul prognozs: optimisturs, pesimisturs da
saSualos. dResdReobiT gaeros demografiuli prognozebi iTvleba
yvelaze saimedod da didi avtoritetiT sargemloben mosaxleobaSi.
Sobadobis koeficienti ganiszRvrerba wlis manZilze dabadebulTa
ricxvis SefardebiT gardacvalebulTa ricxvze da 1000-ze gamravlebiT,
anu gamoisaxeba promileebSi 0 )00
0( .
178
mokvdaobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze gardacvalebulTa
ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxovnobaze (wlis
dasawyisisa da bolosaTvis ricxovnobis sxvaoba gayofili orze) da 1000-
ze gadamravlebiT.
bunebrivi moZraobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze bunebrivi
moZraobis absoluturi matebis (sxvaoba dabadebulTa ricxvsa da
gardacvalebulTa ricxvs Soris) gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur
ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.
qorwinebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze daqorwinebulTa
ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze
gadamravlebiT.
ganqorwinebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze
ganqorwinebulTa ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur
ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.
aRniSnuli SefardebiTi maCveneblebi agebulia mosaxleobis
saSualowliur ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT, amitom maT uwodeben saerTo
koeficientebs.
Tu ki msgavs gaangariSebebs vawarmoebT mosaxleobis struqturuli
qvedanayofebis mixedviT miviRebT bunebrivi moZraobis specialur (kerZo)
koeficientebs.
Sobadobis specialuri koeficienti ganiszRvrerba wlis manZilze
dabadebulTa ricxvis SefardebiT 15-49 wlamde asakis saSualowliur
ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.
bavSvTa mokvdaobis specialuri koeficienti ganisazRvreba mocemul
wels 1 wlamde asakis gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvis SefardebiT
dabadebulTa ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. am SemTxvevaSi
179
gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom 1 wlamde gardacvlilebidan nawili ekuTvnis
mimdinare, nawili _ gasul wels dabadebulebs. amitom bavSvTa
mokvdaobis specialuri koeficienti Rebulobs Semdeg saxes:
1000
3
1
3
201
1
NN
mKM
,
sadac MK aris bavSvTa mokvdaobis pecialuri koeficienti;
1m _ 1 wlamde asakis gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvi;
1N _ mocemul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi;
0N _ gasul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi.
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis Tanafardobis dasaxasiaTeblad mosaxleobis
statistikaSi xSirad gaiangariSeba sicocxlianobis koeficienti,
romelic miiReba dabadebulTa ricxvis gardacvlilTa ricxvTan
SefardebiT da gamoisaxeba procentebSi.
mokvdaobis detaluri Seswavla xorcieldeba cxrilis meSveobiT. misi
ZiriTadi maCveneblebia: asakmiRweulTa ricxvi da asakmiRwevis albaToba;
gardacvlilTa ricxvi da mokvdaobis albaToba; X asakis mosaxleobis
ricxvi; nacxovreb kac welTa ricxvi; momavali sicocxlis saSualo
xangrZlivoba.
asakmiRweulTa ricxvi gviCvenebs 10000 mcxovrebidan ramdeni icocxlebs
TiToeul Semdgom 1 wlamde, 2 wlamde, 20 wlamde ... 60 wlamde da a.S.
asakmiRwevis albaToba sicocxlis momdevno asakis Sesrulebamde
albaTobaa, e.i. X askidan 1X askamde. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:
x
x
xl
lP 1 ,
sadac xP aris momdevno asakamde sicocxlis albaToba;
1xl _ 1X askamde mcxovrebTa ricxvi;
xl _ X askamde mcxovrebTa ricxvi.
gardacvlilTa ricxvi gviCvenebs ramdeni gardaicvleba X asakidan X+1
askamde.
180
mokvdaobis albaToba momdevno asakis Sesrulebamde mokvdaobis
albaTobaa.
X asakis mosaxleobis ricxvi gaiangariSeba mocemul da Semdgom wels
miRweulTa saSualo maCvenebliT.
nacxovreb kac welTa ricxvi )( xT gaiangariSeba asaks miRweulTa
nacxovreb welTa saerTo ricxviT X asakidan sazRvriTi asakis CaTvliT
).( xx lT
momavali sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba axasiaTebs gansazRvrul
asaks miRweulTa an dabadebulTa sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobas. es
maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba axaldabadebulTaTvis da Semdgom asakamde
miRweulTaTvis cal-calke.
momavali sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba )( 0
xl dgindeba mocemul
asakamse miRweulTa mier am asakidan sazRvriT asakamde sicocxlis
kac/welTa ricxvis )( xT gayofiT am asakamde miRweulTa ricxvze )( xl :
x
x
xl
Tl 0 .
daqorwinebulTa da ganqorwinebulTa absoluturi da SefardebiTi
maCveneblebi. absoluturi maCvenebelia daqorwinebulTa da
ganqorwinebulTa ricxvi wlis manZilze. Tu maT calcalke SevafardebT
mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobasTan da gadavamravlebT 1000-ze,
miviRebT daqorwinebis an ganqorwinebis saerTo koeficients.
migraciis absoluturi (CamosulTa da waulTa ricxvi) da SefardebiTi
maCveneblebi. es ukanaskneli SeiZleba gaviangariSoT absoluturi
maxasiaTeblebis SefardebiT mocemul teritoriaze mcxovrebTa saSualo
wliur ricxovnobasTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. TiToeuli maTgani
SeiZleba gaviangariSoT migraciis mizezebis, sqesis, asakis, erovnebis da
sxv. niSnebis mixedviT.
181
mosaxleobis zemoTmotanili maCveneblebi axasiaTebs mimdinare da
warsul periodSi mosaxleobis bunebriv da meqanikur moZraobas.
mosaxleobis aRwerebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi
etapebi da maTi da xasiaTeba
aRweris Tanamedrove istoriaSi gamoiyofa sami etapi.
pirvel etapi _ me-18s. bolo _ me-19s. pirveli naxevari. am periodSi
Caeyara safuZveli aRweris organizacias, misi programebis gansazRvras.
maSin aSS da inglisSi aRwerebi tardeboda yovel 10 weliwadSi erTxel,
regularulad 5 wlis SualediT _ safrangeTsa da SvedeTSi, avstriaSi 3
_ 4 wlis periodulobiT. aRwerebi iyo araregularuli norvegiaSi,
islandiaSi, daniaSi. am etapze aRwerebi, rogorc wesi, ar moicavda
mTlian mosaxleobas. magaliTad, aSS-Si 1790 wlis arwera aRricxavda
mxolod ojaxebis meTaurebs, TeTri qalebisa da zangebis ricxovnobas.
safrangeTis 1801 wlis aRwera svamda mxolod or kiTxvas: sqess da
qorwinebis mdgomareobas. inglisis 1801 wlis aRweris programa exeboda
mxolod meurneoebis meTauris vaWrobisadmi, miwaTmoqmedebisadmi an
mrewvelobisadmi mikuTvnebis sakiTxs.
aRwerebis msoflio ganviTarebis meore etapi grZeldeboda me-19s. meore
naxevridan _ me-20s. pirvel naxevramde. am periodSi aRwerebi ukve
tardeboda evropis yvela qveyanaSi, amerikis kontinentze, da agreTve
aziasa da afrikaSi. aRwerebis programebis SemuSavebaSi didi damsaxureba
aqvs belgiel mecniers a. keTles. man SeimuSava aRwerebis erTdRian
vadaSi Catarebis safuZvlebi belgiaSi 1848 wels da pirvelad
gaiTvaliswina saxeze myofi mosaxleoba. faqtiurad am periodidan iwyeba
sazRvargareTuli aRwerebis iseTi Tanamedrove principebis Camoyalibeba,
rogoricaa erTdRiuroba, TviTgamoTvla (anketebis Sevsebis gziT), wera-
kiTxvis codnis, migraciis, Sobadobis, mokvdavobis da a.S. aucilebeli
Seswavla. garda saxeze myofi mosaxleobisa calke kategoriad gamoiyofa
mudmivi mosaxleoba.
182
aRwerebis Catarebisa da misi Sedegebis damuSavebis mecnieruli
dasabuTeba mocemuli iqna briuselSi 1853 wels Catarebul
saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresis pervel sesiaze da Semdgom
petrburgSi 1872 wels Catarebul sesiaze. dazustebuli iqna aRsaricxavi
mosaxleobis ZiriTadi kategoriebi, aRricxvis programisadmi
moTxovnilebebi, aRricxvis perioduloba.
mosaxleobis aRricxvis Teoriisa da praqtikis ganviTarebis mesame etapi
daiwyo me-20s. Sua xanebSi, rodesac aRwerebis Catareba ganxorcielda
arabul qveynebSic. am etapze didi yuradReba eqceva mosaxleobis
aRricxvis iseT aspeqtebs, rogoricaa dasaqmeba, migracia. aSS_Si,
iaponiaSi, germaniaSi, filipinebSi, indoeTSi aRiricxeba mxolod mudmivi
mosaxleoba. im dros rodesac didbritaneTSi, bruneaSi, tanzaniaSi,
TurqeTSi aRiricxeba saxeze myofi mosaxleoba. iseT yveynebSi,
rogoricaa saqarTvelo, bulgareTi, ungreTi, italia, ruseTi aRiricxeba
orive kategoria: saxeze myofi (faqtobrivi) da mudmivi mosaxleoba.
cxadia, rom aRweris sxvadasxva programiT sxvadasxva monacemebis
mopoveba arTulebs maTi Sedegebis saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobas. amasTan
dakavSirebiT gaero atarebs msoflioSi mosaxleobis aRweriTi
aRricxvis erTiani principebis rekomendaciebisa da koordinirebis did
samuSaoebs. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis aRwerisadmi unificirebuli
midgomis TvalsazrisiT gaeros rekomendacia iTvaliswinebs aRweris
Catarebis 10 wlian periodulobas da mas iTvaliswinebs qveqnebis
umetesoba.
aRwerisas ganasxvaveben mosaxleobis or kategorias: mudmivi mosaxleoba
da saxeze myofi mosaxleoba.
mudmiv mosaxleobas miaekuTvneben mocemul teritoriaze mcxovreb
mosaxleobas, miuxedavad imisa Tu sad imyofebian isini aRweris momentSi.
saxeze myof mosaxleobas miekuTvneba mocemul adgilas aRweris momentSi
yvela faqtiurad myofi mosaxleoba. aRwerisas mosaxleobis aseT
kategoriebad dayofas aqvs ekonomikuri arsi. magaliTad, sacxoveblebSi,
skolebSi, saavadmyofoebSi moTxovnilebis gansasazRvrelad saWiroa
183
mudmivi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis gaTvaliswineba, xolo sazogadoebriv
transportSi, maRaziebSi moTxovnilebis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa
monacemebi saxeze myof mosaxleobazec.
demografiuli prognozebi
sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens
demografiuli prognozebi: mosaxleobis momavali periodis absoluturi
ricxovnoba da sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenloba. pirveli iZleva
mosaxleobis absoluturi ricxovnobis prognozs, xolo meore
mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis prognozs.
mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis prognozi keTdeba
eqstrapolaciis meTodiT, xolo sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenlobis
prognozi _ asakgadanacvlebis meTodiT.
eqstrapolacia gulisxmobs warsul periodSi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis
cvalebadobis tendenciebis gavrcelebas momavalze. aq SesaZlebelia
iseTi maCveneblebis gamoyeneba, rogoricaa mosaxleobis saSualowliuri
zrda, absoluturi mateba da a.S.
mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba saSualo absoluturi matebis
gamoyenebiT gaiangariSeba:
)1(0
tSS t
xolo saSualo zrdis tempebis gamoyenebiT:
1
0
t
t kSS
sadac tS aris mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba;
0S _ sawyisi ricxovnoba perspeqtiuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis;
_ mosaxleobis saSualo wliuri absoluturi mateba warsul periodSi;
K _ saSualowliuri zrdis tempi; t _ perspeqtiuli periodis xangrZlivoba wleebSi.
184
asakgadanacvlebis meTodi gulisxmobs TiToeuli asakobrivi
jgufisaTvis, mokvdaobis koeficientebis safuZvelze, momdevno asakis
mqone mosaxleobis ricxvis dadgenas.
magaliTi. dauSvaT 2009 wlis bolosaTvis saWiroa romelime regionSi
dadgindes ramdeni iqneba 16 wlis asakis (e.i. Sromisunariani)
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 2012 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis. aSkaraa, rom isini
2009 wlis bolosaTvis iqnebian 14 wlisani. maSasadame, saWiroa jer
davadginoT 14 wlis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 2009 wlis bolosaTvis.
dauSvaT am ricxovnobam Seadgina 10,0 mln kaci. cnobilia agreTve, rom
mokvdaobis koeficientebi 14 da 15 wlis asakis mosaxleobisaTvis
Seadgens Sesabamisad 1,4 da 1,6-s (promileebSi), aqedan 15 wlis asakis
mosaxleoba 2010 wlis bolosaTvis iqneba:
10,0 mln _ 0,99861000
4,1*0,10 aT kaci.
2011 wlis bolosaTvis anu 2012 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis iqneba:
9986,0 aT _ 0,99701000
6,1*0,9986 aT kaci.
aRniSnuli gaangariSebebis gamartiveba SesaZlebelia asakmiRweulTa
koeficientebis gamoyenebiT, romlebic miiReba erTisa da mokvdaobis
koeficientebis sxvaobiT.
Cvens magaliTSi 14 wlis mosaxleobisaTvis asakmiRweulTa koeficienti
iqneba: 1 _ 0,0014 = 0,9984, aqedan 15 wlis mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli
ricxovnoba 2010 wlis bolos Seadgenda 10,0 mln kaci*0,9985=9,986 mln
kacs. xolo 2011 wlis bolos 16 wlis asakis mosaxleobisarvis 9,986 mln
kaci* 0,9984=9,979 mln kacs.
185
leqcia 10. Sromis saerTaSoriso statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia, misi saqmianobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi
2. Sromis bazris cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema 3. dasaqmebis, umuSevrobisa da mosaxleobis ekonomikuri
aqtiurobis maCvenebelTa sistema 4. samuSao drois statistika 5. Sromis mwarmoeblurobis statistika 6. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika 7. samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis statistika
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia da misi saqmianobis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi
saerSaSoriso maStabiT SromiTi urTierTobebis statistikuri Seswavlis
problemebi Tavmoyrilia Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciaSi, is
Siqmna 1919wels, xolo 1946 wlidan moqmedebs gaeros egidiT. Sso
gaeros specializirebuli dawesebulebaa. Stab-bina mdebareobs JenevaSi,
msxvili qveynebis dedaqalaqebSi Sso gaaCnia warmomadgenloba. samuSao
enebi _ franguli da inglisuri. aRmasrulebeli organoa
administraciuli sabWo, romelic xelmZrvanelobs Sromis saerTaSoriso
biuros (Ssb) samdivnos muSaobas, is mudmivad moqmedi samuSao organoa.
Ssb CarCoebSi Seqmnilia statistikis biuro da Sromis statistikosebis
saerTaSoriso konferencia. Ssb aRniSnul gvedanayoSi moqmedebs xuTi
ganyofileba:
samuSao Zalis, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobisa da
umuSevrobis;
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis, xelfasisa da samuSo drois;
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebis;
saojaxo biujetebis;
organizaciuli sakiTxebisa da publikaciebis.
Sso saqmianobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia: Sromis statistikis
organizaciisa da maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodologiis srulyofa,
186
agreTve SromiTii resursebis, xelfasis, samuSao drois da Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis problemebze informaciis mopoveba.
Sso rekomendaciebis Tanaxmad misi yvela wevri-qveyana valdebulia
regularulad moipovos da gamoaqveynos informacia Sromis Semdegi
ganyofilebebis mixedviT:
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba, dasaqmeba da umuSevroba;
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis struqtura da ganawileba;
samuSao drois saSualo xangrZlivoba da saSualo xelfasi;
xelfasis struqtura da ganawileba;
samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba;
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;
Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebi da xarjebi;
sawarmoo travmatizmi da profesiuli daavadebebi;
gaficvebi, lokautebi da SromiT konfliktebTan dakavSirebuli
sxva aqciebi.
Sromis saerTaSoriso statistikis ganviTarebas xeluwyobs Sromis
tatistikis saerTaSoriso konferenciebi. konferenciebis Sedegebi
mniSvnelovani SemuSavebis nawilSi gamoqveynebuli iqna Sromis
statistikis saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebis saxelwodebiT.
amJamad Sso ZiriTadi amocanebia:
samuSao drois reglamentacia;
Sromis garantirebuli anazRaurebis dadgena;
mSromelTa dacva profesiuli daavedebebisgan da warmoebaze
ubeduri SemTxvevebisgan;
bavSvebis, mozardebisa da qalebis Sromis dacva;
socialuri dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebis
regulireba;
profesiul-teqnikuri swavlebis organizeba.
187
Sso ganaxorciela didi samuSaoebi Sromis statistikis maCvenebelTa
unificirebis, maTi gaangariSebis meTodikis gavrcelebis, yveynebis
farTo wreebSi Sesabamisi dokumentaciis gavrcelebis, Sromis
statistikis maCvenebelTa saerTaSooriso doneze Sesadarisobis
uzrunvelyofis kuTxiT.
Sromis bazris cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema
Sromis bazarSi igulisxmeba samuSao Zalis ganawilebisa da gamoyenebis
makoordinirebeli da maregulirebeli ekonomikuri, socialuri da
samarTlebrvi RonisZiebebis da institutebis sistema.
Sromis bazaris statistika iqmneba Sromis statistikis CarCoebSi da
gansakuTrebul yuradRebas aqcevs daqiravebulTa da damqiravebelTa
Soris saqmianobisa da urTierTobis im aspeqtebs, romlis safuZvelze
igeba sabazro koniunqturis analizi da prognozireba. Tumca statistika
swavlobs ara mxolod samuSao Zalaze moTxovnasa da miwodebas, aramed
Sromis pirobebis, Sromis anazRaurebis, kadrebis profesiuli momzadebis
sakiTxebs da rig sxva problebas, romelic aucilebelia Sromis bazris
politikis gansasazRvrelad.
amosaval poziciaze damokidebuliT am dargSi ganasxvaveben politikis
or saxeobas: saerTo ekonomikuri politika da aqtiuri politika.
saerTo ekonomikuri politikis amocana mdgomareobs dasaqmebis maRali
donis misaRwevad xelsayreli amosavali pirobebis SeqmnaSi. is ar ereva
Sromis bazris procesebSi, magram misi meSveobiT umjobesdeba moTxovnis
pirobebi Sromis bazrze. aseTi formiT, saerTo ekonomikuri politika
zemoqmedebs samuSao Zalis moTxovnaze.
aqtiuri politika Sromis bazris dargSi uSualod moqmedebs Sromis
Zalis miwodebaze. misi zemoqmedebis insrumentebia: samuSaos miwodebis,
kvalifikaciis amaRlebis da gadamzadebis RonisZiebebi; konsultaciebi
profesiis SerCevasTan dakavSirebiT; Suamavloba profesiuli ganaTlebis
188
adgilebisa da samuSao adgilebis gamoyofaze; umuSevrobaze Semweobis
gacema da a.S.
rogorc saeraTo ekonomikuri politikis efeqtianoba, aseve efeqtiuri
politika Sromis bazarze vlindeba, uwinaresad, samuSao Zalis
moTxovnisa da miwodebis dabalasebulobaSi, xolo miRebuli
RonisZiebebis arasakmarisoba iwvevs daZabulobas Sromis bazarze.
warmoebaSi faqtobriv monawileobaze, miRebul Semosavlebze,
Sesasrulebeli samuSaoebis adgilsa da xangrZlivobaze
damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben samuSao Zalis Semdeg kategoriebs:
mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asaksi;
Sromisunariani mosaxleoba;
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba;
SromiTi resursebi;
ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleoba.
saerTaSoriso standartebis Sesabamisad Sromisunariani asaki
dadgenilia 15_64 wlis sazRvrebSi. miuxedavad amisa TiToeuli qveyana
adgens Sromisunariani asakis Tavis sazRvrebs da isini arsebiTad
gansxvavdebian.
am dros ikveTeba urTierTkavSiri qveynebis socialur-ekonomikuri
ganviTarebis donesa da am qveynebSi dadgenili Sromisunariani asakis
sazRvrebs Soris. ramdenad maRalia qveynis ganviTarebis done, miT ufro
maRalia Sromisunarani asakis qveda zRvari, xolo zeda zRvari _
dabali. zeda zRvari gansxvavebulia qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris.
Sromisunarani asaki dgindeba sakanonmdeblo aqtiT, qveynis
Taviseburebebis, tradiciebisa da Cvevebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
Sromisunarani mosaxleoba _ mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi, maT
SemadgenlobaSi arc erT yveyanaSi ar SeyavT Sromisunariani asakis ar
momuSave invalidebi.
189
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba – mateialuri dovlaTis warmoebaSi an
momsaxurebis gawevaSi monawileobis potenciuri unaris mqone pirTa
erToblioba.
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis gaangariSebis meTodika
gansxvavebulia qveynebs Soris. es gansxvaveba dakavSirebulia am
maCvenebelSi samxedro mosamsaxureebis CarTva an ar CarTvasTan.
zogjer xdeba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis cnebis SromiTi
resursebiT Senacvleba. Tumca mxedvelobaSia misaRebi, rom SromiTi
resursebi gansxvavdebian ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobisagan.
kategoria ,,saerTo SromiTi resursebi” gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri
ganviTarebisa da TanamSromlobis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier
qveynis SromiTi da samxedro potencialis dasaxasiaTeblad.
ekonomikurad araqtiuri mosaxleoba _ rogorc ojaxis, aseve
sazogadoebis kmayoaze myofTa yvela kategoria. maT miekuTvnebian:
moswavleebi, studentebi, romlebic ar araian dasaqmebuli aranairi
saqmianobiT, garda swavlisa;
pirebi, romlebic dasaqmebuli arian saojaxo meurneobis gaZRoliT,
bavSvebis, avadmyofebis, naTesavebis movliT;
pirebi, romlebmac Sewyvites samuSaos Zebna, amowures samuSaos
povnis SesaZlebloba, magram maT SeuZliaT da mzad arian imuSaon;
pirebi, romlebsac ara aqvT muSaobis aucilebloba, am dros
Semosavlis wyaros araaqvs mniSvneloba;
Sromis saerTaSoriso oganizaciis meTodologiiT ekonomikurad ara
aqtiuri mosaxleoba moicavs kidev or kategorias:
pirebi, romlebic iReben pensias, magram ar arian dasaqmebuli;
invalidebi, romlebic iReben pensias, magram ar arian dasaqmebuli.
analitikuri miznebisaTvis rekomendebulia ekonomikurad ara aqtiuri
mosaxleobis ricxovnobidan Sromisunariani asakis ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobs gamoyofa.
190
garda zemoT moyvanili absuluturi maCveneblebisa ganisazRvreba rigi
SefardebiTi maCvenebeli:
1. Sromisunarian asakSi myofi mosaxleobis wili (dSru.as.) es
maCvenebeli axasiaTebs Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wils
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi:
dSru.as.= SSru.as./ SsaerT.ricx.
mTlianad planetis mixedviT es maCvenebeli Seadgens 60_65%-s.
2. Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wili (dSru.):
dSru.= SSru./ SsaerT.ricx.
es ori maCvenebeli dakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan Semdegi saindeqso
modeliT:
SSru./ SsaerT.ricx. = SSru.as./ SsaerT.ricx.* SSru./ SSru.as,
sadac SSru./SSru.as. _ Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wili Sromisunariani
asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobaSi.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi didi mniSvneloba aqvs maCvenebelTa
gaangariSebas SromiTi resursebis formirebis TvalsazrisiT. amdagvari
maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad mTliani mosaxleoba iyofa sam jgufad:
Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleoba;
mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi;
Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleoba.
mosaxleobis aRniSnuli jgufebisaTvis gaeros statistikis komisis mier
rekomendebulia Semdegi asakobrivi zRvari:
Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleoba _ 4-dan 14 wlamde;
mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi _ 15-dan 64 wlamde;
Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleoba _ 64 wlis zemoT.
191
aRniSnuli asakobrivi jgufebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba Semdegi
maCveneblebi:
1. SromiTi resursebis ჩანacvlebis koeficienti. is warmoadgens
Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleobis rocxonobis Sefardebas
Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:
KSr.r.S. = SSru.as.ax./ SSru.as.
2. sapensio datvirTvis koeficienti. is gaiangariSeba Sromisunarian
asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT Sromisunariani
asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:
Ksap.dat. = Ssap.as.uf./ SSru.as.
3. saerTo datvirTvis koeficirnti . is warmoadgens Sromisunarian
asakze aumcrosi da ufrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis jamis Sefardebas
Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:
Ksaer.dat.= SSru.as.ax./ + Ssap.as.uf./ SSru.as.
an
Ksaer.dat. = KSr.r.S + Ksap.dat.
SromiTi resursebis Senacvlebis, sapensio da saerTo datvirTvis
koeficientebi gaiangariSeba promileebSi da, axasiaTeben Tu, ramdeni
Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda an ufrosi piri ( an erTic da meorec)
modis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 1000kacze.
es maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba socialuri uzrunvelyofisa da SromiTi
resursebis raciunalurad gamoyenebis RonisZiebaTa SesamuSaveblad.
bolo wleebSi grZeldeba planetis mosaxleobis daberebis procesi.
Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis zrda aRemateba
Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis zrdas.
192
calkeul qveynebSi Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis
rocxovobis zrdisas mcirdeba Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi
mosaxleobis rocxovnoba (iaponia, ungreTi, bulgareTi, didibritaneTi,
safrangeTi, kanada, SvedeTi). Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi mosaxleobis
rocxovnobis Semcireba ZiriTadad gamowveulia umetes yveyanaSi
Sobadobis Semcirebis tendenciiT.
Emosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis, dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis
maCvenebelTa sistema.
cocxali Sromis gamoyenebis efeqti Seiswavleba SromiTi potencialis
gamoyenebis maCvenebebelTa meSveobiT, maT miekuTvneba aqtiurobis,
dasaqmebisa da umoSevrobis maCveneblebi.
ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba or variantSi:
ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti = ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.
ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti = ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba.
pirveli maCvenebeli axasiaTebs ara mTliani mosaxlebis aqtiurobas,
aramed, mxolod misi gansazRvruli nawilisas, e.i. Sromisunariani asakis
mosaxleobis.
ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficients axasiaTebs mniSvnelovani rxevadoba
qveynebis mixedviT. es maCvenebeli ufro maRalia ganviTarebul qveynebSi,
rac aixsneba qalebis maRali aqtiurobiT.
mosaxleobisDdasaqmebis koeficienti SeiZleba gaangariSdes:
mTlian mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT;
Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT.
193
mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti = dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba.
mosaxlebis dasaqmebis koeficienti axasiaTebs sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi
mosaxleobis CarTulobis dones. es Zalian zogadi maCvenebelia, vinaidan
misi mricxveli moicavs mTlian mosaxleobas, asakis, janmrTelobis
mdgomareobis da a.S. mixedviT diferencirebis gauTvaliswineblad.
mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti = dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba/ Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.
dasaqmebis am or koeficients Soris ikveTeba Semdegi kavSiri:
Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti =
mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti * mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba/
Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.
es niSnavs, rom Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis dasaqmebis
koeficienti absoluturi sididis mixedviT metia mTliani mosaxleobis
dasaqmebis koeficientisa imdenjer, ramdenjerac mTliani mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba metia Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnobaze.
mTel msoflioSi mecnierul-teqnikur ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebiT
SeimCneva dasaqmebis donis Semcirebisa da muSaobis survilis mqone,
dausaqmebeli Sromisunariani mosaxleobis ricxvis Semcirebis tendencia,
e.i. izrdeba umuSevarTa ricxovnoba.
umuSevroba aris socialur-ekonomkuri movlena, romlis drosac samuSao
Zalis nawili (ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis) ar aris dasaqmebuli
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebaSi.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis rekomendaciiT umuSevrebs
miekuTvnebian:
pirebi, romlebsac ara aqvT samuSao;
pirebi, romlebic eZeben samuSaos;
194
pirebi, romlebic mzad arian dauyovnebliv daiwyon muSaoba (ori
kviris ganmavlobaSi);
ganasxvaveben umuSevrobis Semdeg saxeobebs:
friqciuli umuSevroba, dakavSirebulia erTi samuSaodan meoreze
gadasvlasTan (nebayoflobiT, an gaTavisuflebis gamo) an
sacxovrebeli adgilis SecvlasTan;
stuqturuli umuSevroba esaa samuSao Zalis moTxovnisa da
miwodebis Seusabamoba profesiis mixedviT. is Cndeba warmoebaSi
mecnierul-teqnikuri progresis danergvasTan dakavSirebiT maSin,
rodesac samuSao adgilebis axali struqtura ar Seesatyviseba
samuSao Zalis Camoyalibebul profesionalur-kvalificiur
struqturas;
cikluri umuSevroba _ cvlilebebi umuSevarTa ricxvSi
dakavSirebuli saqmiani koniunqturis ciklTan. is aRwevs piks
ekonomikaSi krizisuli situaciisas. (1933 wlis krizisis dros aSS-
Si ciklurma umuSevrobam moicva dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis 25%)
sezonuri umuSevroba damaxasiaTebelia dargebisaTvis, sadac Sroma
atarebs sezonur xasiaTs (soflis meurneoba, nadiroba, TevzWera
da sxva);
klasikuri umuSevroba (samuSao adgilebis nawilis
gamoTavisufleba xelfasis momatebis mizniT);
teqnologiuri umuSevroba aris dasaqmebis Semcireba warmoebaze,
misi avtomatizaciisa da axali teqnikis danergvis Sedegad.
friqciuli da stuqturuli umuSevroba sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi
gardauvalia. cxadia, rom yovelTvis iqnebian muSakebi, romlebic
fiqroben ufro kvalificirebul da maRalanazRaurebad Tanamdebobaze.
struqturuli umuSevroba, aseve gardauvalia, Tu aris progresi, vinaidan
dakavSirebulia mecnierul-teqnikuri siaxleebis danergvasTan, romelic
iwvevs moTxovnas gansazRvruli kvalifikaciis spesialistebze da
tradiciuli dargebis muSakebis SromiTi mowyobis problemebs.
195
friqciuli da stuqturuli umuSevroba axasiaTebs mis bunebriv dones.
Tu bunebrivi done 4% tolia, maSin laparakia srul dasaqmebaze (e.i.
dasaqmebulia samuSao Zalis 96%).
arsebiTi gansxvaveba friqciul da stuqturul umuSevrobas Soris
mdgomareobs imaSi, rom friqciul umuSevrebs gaaCniaT unari, romelic
SeuZliaT maT gayidon dauyovnebliv, xolo struqturul umuSevrebs ar
SeuZliaT miiRon samuSao gadamzadebis gareSe. struqturuli umuSevroba,
gansxvavebiT xasiaTiT moklevadiani frikciuli umuSevrobisgan ufro
grZelvadiania da amitom iTvleba ufro seriozul problemad.
ganasxvaveben srul da nawilobriv umuSevrobas. srul umuSevrobas
miakuTvneben Sromisunarian pirebs, romlebsac ar gaaCniaT samuSao
dadgenili drois periodis zemoT. nawilobriv umuSevrebs miakuTvneben
pirebs, romlebic iZulebuli arian imuSaon arasruli samuSao kviris
ganmavlobaSi. Tumca mocemuli cnebebis mimarT mkveTri saerTaSoriso
rekomendacia ar arsebobs, qveynebis umetesobaSi statistikur aRricxvas
eqvemdebareba mxolod sruli umuSevroba.
drois periodi, romlis gasvlis Semdeg samuSaos armqone piri SeiZleba
CaiTvalos umuSevrad calkeuli qveynebis kanonmdeblobaSi ganisazRvreba
gansxvavebulad, Tumca yvelaze gavrcelebulad iTvleba kalendaruli
Tve.
umuSevrobis xangrZlivoba _ periodi, romlis ganmavlobaSi adamiani
iTvleba umSevrad. Sromis bazarze moTxovnisa da miwodebis
ganmsazRvrel socialur, ekonomikur, demografiul da politikur
pirobebze damokidebulebiT umuSevrobam SeiZleba miiRos sxvadasxva
forma. analitikuri miznebisaTvis ganasxvaveben grZelvadian da
moklevadian umuSevrobas.
gaeros rekomendaciebis Tanaxmad umuSevroba erT welze meti vadiT
iTvleba grZelvadianad, rac dakavSirebulia ekonomkiuri saqmianobis
ciklurobasTan.
196
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis rekomendaciebis Sesabamisad
moklevadian umuSevrobas gaaCnia ori daxasiaTeba: 3 Tvemde da 3 Tvidan 1
wlamde.
umuSevarTa saerTo realuri ricxovnoba gansxvavdeba oficialurad
daregistrirebuli umuSevobisgan. qveyanaSi oficialurad miCneuli
umuSevroba naklebia misi realuri sididisa ,,faruli umuSevrobis”
sididiT.
saerTaSoriso Sedarebebisas gamoiyeneba umuSevarTa ara absoluturi
raodenoba, aramed SefardebiTi maCvenebeli _ umuSevrobis done
(koeficienti). is SeiZleba ganisazRvros or variantSi:
mTlian mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT;
ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT.
KumS.= umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.
KumS.= umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba.
am or maCveneblebs Soris arsebobs Semdegi kavSiri:
umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba=
umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba * aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnoba.
es niSnavs, rom umuSevrobis koeficienti gaangariSebuli mosaxleobis
mTlian ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT ori faqtoris namravlis tolia:
ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT gaangariSebul
umuSevrobis koeficientis;
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobis wilis.
197
aRniSnuli kavSiri iZleva, mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTan
mimarTebiT gaangariSebuli, umuSevrobis koeficientis dinamikaSi
cvlilebis gansazRvris saSualebas aRniSnuli faqtorebis xarjze.
gaviangariSoT es kavSiri qvemoT motanili cxrilis monacemebis
magaliTze:
maCveneblebi pirobiTi
aRniSvnebi
sabazoso
periodi
saangariSo
periodi
1.umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi aT.kac. SumuS. 196
263
2.ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba aT.kac.
Sek.aq.
1527
2513
3.mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba aT.kac SsaerTo 5020 5010
gaangariSebiTi maCveneblebi:
4.umuSevrobis koeficienti mosaxleobis
saerTo ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT (1:3), %-Si
KumuS.
3,09
5,2
5.umuSevrobis koeficienti ekonomikrad
aqtiur mosaxleobsTan mimarTebiT (1:2), %-Si
a
7,8
10,5
6.ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis wili
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi (2:3)
b 0,502 0,502
saangariSo periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT umuSevrobis koeficientis
saerTo mateba mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTsan mimarTebiT:
K umuS.= 1K umuS. _ 0K umuS.=5,2_3,9=1,3%,
maT Soris cvlilebebis xarJze:
umuSevrobis koeficientis ekonomikrad aqtiur mosaxleobsTan
mimarTebiT:
1K umuS.= 36,1502,0*8,75,10*)( 101 baa %
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis wili mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnobaSi:
0K umuS.= %01,08,7*503,0502,0*)( 001 abb
198
gaangariSebebis Semowmeba:
K umuS.= 1K umuS. + 0K umuS.,
1.3= 1,36+ (_0,01).
umniSvnelo gansxvavebas adgili aqvs damrgvalebis xarjze.
umuSevroba mTlianad sazogadoebisaTvis vlindeba danakargTa ori saxiT:
finansuri danakargebis (umuSevrobaze Semweibis gacemiT,
danaxarjebi umuSevarTa gadamzadebaze, umuSevrobis materialuri
daxmareba );
danakargebi erovnuli Semosavlebis nawilis, vinaidan umuSevrebi
arafers ar awarmoeben (umuSevrobisgan zarali).
umuSevrobisgan zarali ganisazRvreba, rogorc umuSevarTa ricxovnobisa
da Sromis saSualo mwarmoeblurobis namravli:
N umuSevrobisgan zarali=ND/Tdas.*TumuS.,
sadac ND/Tdas. _ erTi dasaqmebulis Sromis saSualo mwarmoeblurobaa;
TumuS. _ umuSevarTa ricxovnoba.
urTierTkavSiri mSp danagargebsa da umuSevrobas Soris ganisazRvreba
oukenis kanoniT: umuSevrobis bunebrivi donis 1%-iT mateba iwvevs mSp
moculobis 2,5%-iT Semcirebas.
samuSao drois statistika
Tanaxmad saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebisa Sromis statistikis ZiriTadi
maCveneblebia:
normaluri samuSao dro;
faqtiurad namuSevari dro;
anazRaurebuli dro.
199
samuSao dro _ sakanonmdeblo wesiT dadgenili, koleqtiur
xelSekrulebebSi da saarbitraJo gadawyveilebebSi dafiqsirebuli dro
saaTebSi. es aris samuSao saaTebis raodenoba dRis, kviris, an sxva
konkretuli periodis ganmavlobaSi, romlis zemoT anazRaureba
xorcieldeba zeganakveTebiT.
qveynebis umetesobaSi amosavali maCvenebelia kviraSi namuSevari saaTebis
raodenoba. es maCvenebeli sxvadasxva qveyanaSi gansxvavdeba.
saerTaSoriso masStabiT samuSao kviris etalonad miCneulia 37,5 saaTi.
samuSao kviris yvelaze maRali xangrZlivobaa niderlandebSi (48 saaTi),
yvelaze dabali _ espaneTSi (37, saaTi).
faqtiurad namuSevari dro _ esa yvela namuSevari dro, m.S. samuSao
drois normaluri peiodis zemoT. aq Sedis:
uSualod muSaobis dro;
dro daxarjuli samuSao adgilze sawarmoo procesis
mosamzadeblad;
mokle Sesvenebebi samuSao adgilze dasaveneblad.
is ar moicavs anazRaurebul, magram ara namuSevar dros (Svebulebis,
avadmyofobis furclis (buleteni) anazRaurebas, oficialur
dResaswaulebs, transportze daxarjul dros, sadilze Sesvenebas).
anazRaurebuli dro. am cnebis gageba sxvadasxva qveyanaSi arsebiTad
gansxvavdeba. misi informaciis wyaroa sagadasaxdelo uwyisebi.
samuSao drois statistikaSi gaiangariSeba misi gamoyenebis Semdegi
maCveneblebi:
samuSao kviris saSualo xangrZlivoba =kviraSi namuSevari saaTebis
raodenoba/kviris ganmavlobaSi momuSaveTa saSualo raodenoba.
samuSao kviris gamoyenebis xangrZlivobis koeficienti = samuSao kviris
saSualo faqtiuri xangrZlivoba/ samuSao kviris dadgenili
xangrZlivoba.
200
samuSao dRis saSualo xangrZlivoba = samuSao kviris ganmavlobaSi
namuSevari kac-saaTi/samuSao kviris ganmavlobaSi namuSevari kac-dRe.
samuSao dRis gamoyenebis xangrZlivobis koeficienti = samuSao dRis
saSualo faqtiuri xangrZlivoba/samuSao dRis dadgenili xangrZlivoba.
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis statistika
saerTaSorisoOoficialur statistikaSi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis
maCvenebeli ar gaiangariSeba. saerTaSoriso dokunentebSi Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis gansazRvraze misi ganmartebis mkafo niSnebi,
gaangariSebis mza meTodika ar arsebobs. am problemebTan mimarTebiT
saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi moicavs daskvnebs Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis statistikis ganviTarebis aucileblobaze.
am sferoSi gansazRvruli samuSao xorcieldeba Sromis saerTaSoriso
organizacis CarCoebSi. es samuSao dakavSirebulia Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis saerTaSoriso indegqsebis gaangariSebasTan.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi rekomendebulia Sromis mwarmoeblurobis
Semdegi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba:
1. mTliani Sromis mwarmoebluroba = mTliani gamoSveba/cocxali
Sromis danaxarjebi.
2. wminda Sromis mwarmoebluroba = wminda damatebuli Rirebuleba/
cocxali Sromis danaxarjebi.
wminda Sromis mwarmoeblurobis gaangariSebisas mniSvneli moicavs
mxolod cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs, xolo warmoebis sxva faqtorebis
danaxarjebi, wminda damatebuli Rirebulebis gansasazRvrelad, akldeba
mTlian gamoSvebas mricxvelSi.
201
Sromis integraluri mwarmoebluroba = mTliani gamoSveba an wminda
damatebuli Rirebuleba/cocxali Sromis danaxarjebi.
praqtikaSi Sromis integraluri mwarmoebluroba gaiangariSeba Zalian
iSviaTad, vinaidan rTulia warsuli Sromis danaxarjebis SromiT
erTeulebSi gadaangariSeba.
cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs miekuTvneba:
muSebisa da mosamsaxurebis Sroma, mewarmeebisa da ojaxis damxmare
wevrebis CaTvliT;
muSebisa da mosamsaxurebis Sroma, mewarmeebisa da ojaxis damxmare
wevrebis gamoklebiT;
namuSevari kac-saaTebi.
warsuli Sromis danaxarjebi _ es Sromis erTeulebSi gamosaxuli
warmoebis sxva faqtorebia (garda muSebis).
statistikuri organoebis praqtikaSi eas-is danergva afarToebs Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis Sewavlis SesaZleblobebs.
eas-is monacemebi iZleva, dargis da mTlianad ekonomikis doneze, Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis Seswavlis da agreTve saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
ganxorcielebis saSualebas.
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis pirveli ori maCvenebelis ZiriTadi naklia is
rom, es maCveneblebi mniSvnelSi iTvaliswineben, warmoebis danarCeni
faqtorebis ignorirebiT, mxolod cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs.
miuxedavad amisa isini mraval qveyanaSi gamoiyeneba samuSao Zalis
efeqtianobis dasaxasiaTeblad. maTi farTo gamoyeneba aixsneba saimedo
statistikuri monacemebis arsebobiTa da gaangariSebis simartiviT.
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis dargis mravali specialisti emxroba
mosazRebas, rom Sromis mwarmoeblurobis donis gaangariSeba unda
xdebodes rogorc cocxali, aseve warsuli Sromis gaTvaliswinebiT. amis
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motivireba xdeba imiT, rom teqnikuri progresis pirobebSi Sromis
mwarmoeblurobis arsebiTi faqtoria warsuli Sromis danaxarjebi, e.i.
warmoebis procesSi gamoyenebuli kapitali. amisaTvis maT mier
SemoTavazebulia Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli an
globaluri maCveneblebi.
aSS-is Sromis statistikurma biurom 1983 wlidan daiwyo kapitalis
mwarmoeblurobis da Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli
indeqsebis publikacia.
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli indeqsi ganisazRvreba,
rogorc cocxali Sromis da kapitalis mwarmoeblurobis Sewonili
saSualo.
Sromis mwarmoeblurobis saerTo faqtoruli indeqsi ganisazRvreba
formuliT:
w = mSp / S.danx. k.danx + k. k.,
sadac mSp aris mTliani Sida produqtis dinamikis indeqsi;
S.danx. _ cocxali Sromis danaxarjebis indeqsi;
k.danx _ Sromis anazRaurebis wili;
k. _ kapitalis anazRaurebis wili;
k., _ mogebis wili mSp-Si.
Sromis anazRaurebis statistika
Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis SemuSavebisas dasawyisSive Sromis
anazRaurebis sakiTxebi moqceuli iqna yuradRebis centrSi, amitom
statistikis es nawili ufro SemuSavebuli da unificirebulia.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi gamosayenebeli Sromis anazRaurebis
ZiriTadi maCveneblebia:
xelfasi;
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satarifo ganakveTi.
xelfasi _ fuladi an naturaluri formiT regularulad, drois
gansazRvruli periodis Semdeg miRebuli Sesrulebuli samuSaos an
namuSevari drois sazRauri. xelfasi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi
ganixileba, rogorc:
warmoebis danaxarjebis elementi;
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebeli;
erovnuli Semosavalis elementi.
xelfasi moicavs Svebulebebisa da oficialuri dResaswaulebis
anazRaurebas. masSi ar Sedis Semdegi elementebi:
mewarmeebis Senatanebi sapensio fondSi;
mewarmeebis Senatanebi socialuri dazRvevis fondSi;
muSakebis mier miRebuli SeRavaTebi;
jarimebi da sadResawaulo Semweobebi.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi xelfasi dairicxeba erT namuSevar saaTze an
erT kviraze, da ara erT muSakze. es aixsneba imiT rom msoflios umetes
yveqnebSi momuSaveTa mniSvnelovani nawili dasaqmebulia arasruli
samuSao droiT.
saSualosaaTobivi xelfasi = namuSevar droze gadaxdebis saerTo
sidide/gadaxdili kac-saaTebis saerTo raodrnoba.
saSualokvireuli xelfasi = saerTo kvireuli gadaxdebi/momuSaveTa
saerTosiobrivi ricxovnoba.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi saSualokvireuli xelfasi ganixileba,
rogorc samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba. mis safuZvelze igeba samuSao Zalis
Rirebulebis indeqsebi.
saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis uaRresad mniSvnelovania xelfasis
dinamikis Seswavla. am dros gaiangariSeba indeqsebi:
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nominaluri xelfasis ( n.x.);
realuri xelfasis ( r.x.).
n.x. = n.x1/n.x0
r.x. = n.x. / s.f.
nominaluri xalfasi _ misi fuladi gamosaxulebaa Sesabamisi wlis
fasebSi.
realuri xelfasi warmoadgens im saqonlisa da mosaxurebis raodenobas,
romlis SeZenac SesaZlebelia mocemuli xelfasiT.
xelfasis kategoria ganixileba or aspeqtSi. daqiravebuli muSakisTvis
es misi Semosavlebis nawilia, damqiraveblisTvis _ warmoebis
danaxarjebis nawili. magram damqiraveblis an mTlianad sazogadoebis
danaxarjebi daqiravebul Sromaze, garda xelfasisa, moicavs socialuri
dacvis, sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofis, samuSao Zalaze gadasaxadebis,
socialur-sayofacxovrebo xarjebs.
xalfasis formirebis safuZvelia satarifo kanakveTi. is afiqsirebs
gansazRvruli profesiisa da kvalifikaciis muSakTa Sromis
anazRaurebas.
satarifo kanakveTi aris gansazRvruli profesiisa da kvalifikaciis
gansazRvruli donis muSakTa Sromis anazRaureba drois gansazRvrul
periodSi (Cveulebriv saaTi).
yvela yveqanaSi satarifo kanakveTi nawildeba satarifo badeebSi,
sxvadasxva niSnebze damokidebulebiT, Tanrigebad.
Tumca arsebos satarifo zomaze moqmedi sxva kategoriebi:
teritoriuli niSnebi, e.i. qveynis teritoriebis mixedviT
gansxvaveba satarifo ganakveTis doneSi (qveyana iyofa sxvadasxva
donis satarifo gankveTis teritoriul zonebad);
momuSaves sqesi (bevr yveyanaSi satarifo ganakveTi momuSave
qalebisaTvis ufro dabalia vidre mamakacebisaTvis);
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sawarmos zoma (msxvil sawarmoSi satarifo ganakveTi ufro
maRalia vidre mcireze).
amJamad, saerTaSoriso statistikaSi, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani tendenciaa
calkeuli qveynis SigniT erTiani satarifo sistemis formireba, rac
xels Seuwyobs informaciis Sesadarisobas.
samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis cneba
kategoria ,,samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba” damaxasiaTebelia mxolod
sabazro ekonomikisaTvis.
samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba (danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze) SeiZleba
Seswavlili iqnes ori mimarTulebiT:
damqiraveblis danaxarjebi;
danaxarjebi mTliani ekonomikis doneze.
Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis ganmartebis Tanaxmad damqiraveblis
danaxarjebi warmoadgens misi danaxarjebis jamobriv Tanxas
dakavSirebuls samuSao Zalis gamoyenebasaA da SenaxvasTan.
danaxarjebi mTliani ekonomikis doneze moicavs damqiraveblis
danaxarjebsac da saxelmwifos danaxarjebsac.
saerTaSoriso Sedarebisas upiratesoba eniWeba danaxarjebs mTliani
ekonomikis doneze.
saerTaSoriso standartebis Sesabamisad samuSao Zalis Senaxvis xarjebis
Seswavlis safuZvelia specialuri erTdrouli kamokvlevebi, romlebic
tardeba or weliwadSi erTxel.
samuSao Zalis kamokvlevebisas mopovebuli informacia aris partniorebs
Soris molaparakebis safuZveli satarifo SeTanxmebebze daqiravebuli
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muSakebis Semosavlebisa da samuSao Zalaze gaweuli xarjebis
Rirebulebis SedarebiTi analizis uzrunvelsayofad.
gamokvlevebis Sedegad miRebuli monacemebis safuZvelze TiToeul
damqiravebels SeuZlia sakuTari sawarmos samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba
Seadaros qveynis SigniT Sesabamisi dargis an sxva dargebis mocemuli
maCveneblis saSualo sidides.
Sromis statistika samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis Seswavlisas wyvets
Semdeg amocanebs:
samuSao Zalaze saSualo danaxarjebis gansazRvra drois
erTeulze gaangariSebiT;
samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis donis, struqturisa da dinamikis
gansazRvra teritoriebis da ekonomikuri saqmianobis sferoebis
mixedviT;
Sromis anazRaurebis maCvenebelTa statistikuri Seswavla
(gansakuTrebiT (xelfasis);
uSualod dasaqmebisagan miRebuli Semosavlebis wilis
statistikuri Sefaseba;
mosaxleobis mier miRebuli socialuri transferebis statistikuri
daxasiaTeba;
samuSao Zalis ganaTlebis donis amaRlebaze da kvlifikaciis
SeZenaze gaweuli xarjebis zomisa da dinamikis Seswavla.
leqcia 11. cxovrebis donis saerTaSoriso statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema 2. mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da xarjebisa statistika 3. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis Seswavla 4. siRaribis statistikiuri Seswavla 5. materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis
maCveneblebi 6. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi 7. mosaxleobis Tavisufali drois statistika
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mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis yovelmxrivi gamokvleva warmoebs 1950
wlidan. dawyebuli 1970 wlidan am kvlevebma miiRo mudmivi da
mravalmxrivi xasiaTi. saerTaSoriso statistikaSi arsebobs mosaxleobis
cxovrebis donis cnebis sxvadasxva ganmarteba. ganasxvaveben mosaxleobis
cxovrebis donis cnebas farTo da viwro gagebiT:
viwro gagebiT _ esaa materialuri da sulieri keTildReobiT
piradi moTxovnebis dakmayofileba;
farTo gagebiT _ esaa mosaxleobis cxovrebis socialur-
ekonomikuri pirobebis mTeli kompleqsi. am konteqstSi mas
uwodeben cxovrebis xarisxs.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis xarisxis oTx dones gamyofen:
1. siRatake _ esaa biologiuri kriteriumebis mixedviT materialuri
keTildReobebisa da momsaxurebis minimaluri nakrebi, romelTa,
moxmareba aucilebelia adamianis sicocxlisunarianobis
SesanarCuneblad.
2. siRaribe _ esaa materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis
moxmareba muSaobis unaris SenarCunebis doneze (samuSao Zalis
aRwarmoebis qveda zRvari). saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba
siRaribis ori gansazRvra: absoluturi da SefardebiTi. pirvel
SemTxvevaSi siRaribeSi igulisxmeba Sinameuneobebis iseTi
mdgomareoba, romlis drosac isini ver uzrunvelyofen TavianT
Tavs janmrTelobis SenarCunebisa da zomierad aqtiuri SromiTi
cxovrebisaTvis absoluturad aucilebeli keTildReobiT. meore
SemTxvevaSi siRaribeSi igulisxmeba Sinameuneobebis dabali
Semosavlebi, romelic mniSvnelovnad dabalia romelime micemul
sandartze.
3. mosaxleobis cxovrebis normaluri done – esaa materialuri
keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba mecnierulad
dasabuTebuli racionaluri normebis mixedviT, romelic
uzrunvelyofs adamianis fizikuri da inteleqtualuri Zalebis
aRdgenas.
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4. SeZlebuli _ keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba im doneze,
romelic uzrunvelyofs adamianis yovelmxriv ganviTarebas.
cneba ,,cxovrebis dones” gaaCnia rTuli struqtura, vinaidan is
axasiaTebs adaminTa sicocxlisunarianobis sferos, sadac gadaikveTeba
ekonomikuri, socialuri da fsiqologiuri urTierTobebi.
cxovrebis done _ adamianTa ara mxolod fiziologiuri, sulieri da
sociluri moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis donea, aramed is agreTve
moxmarebuli keTildReobis raodenobacaa da xarisxic.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi Cndeba axali faqtorebi da pirobebi, rac
kidev ufro arTulebs mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis Sedarebas Dda
Sepirispirebas. Aam pirobebs miekuTvnebian:
qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done da misi potenciali;
finansuri sistemis mdgomareoba;
bunebrivi resursebiT uzrunvelyofiloba;
qveynis inteleqtualuri potencialis done;
geografiuli faqtorebi;
erovnuli tradiciebi da Taviseburebebi.
zemoaRniSnuls, unda daematos, is rom cxovrebis done SeiZleba
ganxilul iqnes rogorc keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis gansazRvruli
minimumi.
1. fiziologiuri minimumi, romlis drosac saSualebebis 80%-ze meti
modis kvebis produqtebze. rac Seexeba samrewvelo saqonels, es is
saqonelia romlis gareSe SeuZlebelia yofna (tansacmeli,
fexsacmeli). momsaxurebaze danaxarjebi umniSvneloa.
fiziologiuri minimumi aZlevs adamians mxolod arsebobis
saSualebas, Sromisunarianobis aRdgenis gareSe.
2. saarsebo minimumi uzrunvelyofs adamianis ara mxolod arsebobas,
aramed misi Sromisunarianobis aRdgenas.
3. socialuri done. moxmarebis es done efuZneba racionalur biujets
_ egreT wodebul naklebad uzrunvelyofilobis dones.
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cxovrebis done SeiZleba gaizomos, rogorc mTlian mosaxleobasTan
mimarTebiT aseve mosaxleobis calkeul jgufTan mimarTebiT.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis done ganixileba, rogorc sazogadoebrivi
warmoebis socialuri efeqtianobis maCvenebeli.
vinaidan ar arsebobs mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis kategoriis
erTmniSvnelovani gansazRvra, diskusiuri rCeba, misi adekvaturi
statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis aucilebeli maCvenebelTa CamonaTvalis
sakiTxi.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad, Aam dargis
specialistebis mier, SemoTavazebulia:
calkeuli kerZo maCveneblebi;
erTi ganzogadebuli maCvenebeli;
maCvenebelTa sistema.
kerZo maCveneblebi axasiaTeben mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis calkeul
mxareebs, rac araris sakmarisi am kategoriis kompleqsuri
daxasiaTebisaTvis. ganzogadebuli maxasiaTeblis saxiT iyo
SemoTavazebuli: realuri xelfasis indeqsi, saarsebo minimumis indeqsi,
cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi. yoveli es maCvenebeli faseulia, magram
ar iZleva cxovrebis yovelmxriv daxasiaTebas.
amJamad mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gaeros
statistikuri komisiis rekomendaciiT gamoiyofa maCvenebelTa Semdegi
jgufebi:
mosaxleobis demografiuli daxasiaTebebi (Sobadoba, mokdaoba,
daavadeba, sicocxlis xangrZlivoba);
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi (realuri da nominaluri);
xarjebisa da danazogis maCveneblebi;
mosaxleobis mier materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis
moxmarebis maCveneblebi;
mosaxleobis sacxovrebliTa da xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonliT
uzrunvelyofis maCveneblebi;
210
dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis maCveneblebi;
mosaxleobis Sromis pirobebis maCveneblebi;
Tavisufali drois maCveneblebi;
ganaTlebis, jandacvis, kultiris, fizkulturisa da sportis,
turizmisa da dasvenebis maCveneblebi.
cxovrebis donis kategoriis sirTule da mravalwaxnagoba ganapirobebs
misi kompleqsuri daxasiaTebis aucileblobas maCvenebelTa sistemis
safuZvelze. imis gamo rom cxovrebis donis yvela elementi obieqturad
urTierTdakavSirebulia, urTierTdakavSirebuli unda iyos maCvenebelTa
sistemac.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi Semavali yvela
maCvenebeli SeiZleba daiyos or jgufad:
1. cxovrebis donis raodenobis maxasiaTebli raodenobrivi
maCveneblebi:
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi;
materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis da xarjebis maCveneblebi;
danazogebis;
sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofisa da qonebis dagrovebis maCveneblebi.
2. xarisxobrivi maCveneblebi:
demografiuli statistikis maCveneblebi (deda da bavSvTa
sikvdilianobis koeficientebi, cxovrebis saSualo xangrZlivoba);
janmrTelobis mdgomareobisa da dacvis maCveneblebi;
moxmarebuli kvebis produqtebis struqturisa da xarisxis
maCveneblebi;
wera-kiTxvis gavrcelebulobis, ganaTlebisa da kulturis
maCveneblebi;
sacxovreblis kofortulobis maCveneblebi.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba Semdegi
wyaroebi:
mosaxleobis aRwerebi;
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sacxovreblis aRwerebi;
specialuri SerCeviTi gamokvlevebi;
mimdinare aRwerebi.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis doneze yvelaze sruli informaciis momcvelia
mosaxleobis aRwerebi. maTi upiratesoba mdgomareobs:
universaluroba amosavali erTobliobis mocvis TvalsazrisiT;
miRebuli informaciis farTo speqtri;
Sedegebis detaluri dokumentireba.
naklovaneba ki is aris, rom aRwerebi tardeba 10 weliwadSi erTxel.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis statistika
mosaxleobis Semosavlebi _ esaa resursebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba:
piradi moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad;
gadasaxadebisa da sxva valdebulebebisaTvis da nebayoflobiTi
gadaxdebisaTvis;
danazogebze.
hiksis koncefciis Tanaxmad Semosavlebs miekuTvneba is saSualebebi,
romlebic gamoiyeneba mxolod moxmarebaze, mosaxleobis simdidris
Semcirebis gareSe. es koncefciaa Cadebuli eas-Si, romelSic
Semosavlebs ar miekuTvneba arsebuli aqtivebis gayidva.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebi Seadgens misi materialuri keTildReobis
safuZvels. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis erT-erTi Tavisebureba
mdgomareobs imasSi, rom isini erTdroulad asaxaven ekonomikur da
socialur procesebs da movlenebs.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:
Semosavlebis zomisa da struqturis daxasiaTeba;
fuladi Semosavlebis diferenciaciis analizi;
fuladi Semosavlebis dinamikis Seswavla;
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moxmarebasa da sxva socialur-ekonomikur maCveneblebze
Semosavlebis gavlenis Sewavla.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaTvaliswinebulia mosaxleobis Semosavlebis
Semdegi maCvenebelTa sistema:
pirveladi Semosavlebi;
mimdinare transferebi fulad formaSi;
socialuri transferebi naturalur formaSi;
gankargvadi Semosavlebi;
koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavlebi.
pirveladi Semosavlebi _ esaa Sinameurneobebis mier sawarmoo
saqmianobaSi monawileobisa da aqtivebis flobiT miRebuli Semosavlebi.
sawarmoo saqmianobaSi monawileobisgan miRebul Semosavlebs
miekuTvnebian Sromis anazRaureba da Sereuli Semosavlebi.
Sereuli Semosavlebi _ esaa Semosavlebis nairsaxeoba, romelSic
gaerTianebulia Sromis anazRaureba da mogeba. Sereul Semosavlebs
miekuTvneba Semosavlebi piradi damxmare meurneobidan, kerZo samewarmeo
saqmianobidan, Tavisufali profesiis pirTa Semosavlebi, saavtoro
honorarebi da a.S.
sakuTrebidan Semosavlebs Rebuloben araaRdgeniTi materialuri
aqtivebis mflobelebi (miwis, miwisqveSa resursebis) da finansuri
aqtivebis mflobelebi. ganasxvaveben sakuTrebidan Semosavlebis sam
formas: renta, procentebi da dividendebi.
mimdinare transferebi mosaxleobas SeuZlia miiRos da gadasces fuladi
formiT. gadacemul mimdinare transferebs miekuTvneba Semosavlebis
miRebasTan, qonebis flobasTan, jarimebTan da a.S. dakavSirebiT
saxelmwifosTvis gadaxdili gadasaxadebi. miRebul transferebs
miekuTvneba pensiebi, daxmarebebi, stipendiebi, mogebebi latariiT,
sazRvargareT mcxovrebi ojaxis wevrebis fuladi gzavnilebi da a.S.
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mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi CairTveba mimdinare transferebis saldo, e.i.
sxvaoba miRebul da gacemul mimdinare transferebs Soris:
mt = mtmiR. _ mtgac
fuladi saxis mimdinare transferebisgan gansxvavebiT socialur
transferebs mosaxleoba Rebulobs (magram ar gascems) saxelmwifo
dawesebulebisagan da arakomerciuli organizaciebisagan naturalur
formaSi. maT miekuTvnebian: wamlebis, invalidebis etlebis, kvebis
produqtebis, tansacmlis saxiT materialuri daxmarebis gaweva ufasod
an SeRavaTiani fasiT.
gankargvadi Semosavali _ esaa Semosavlebi romlis gamoyeneba SeuZliaT
Sinameurneobebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis
finansirebis an dazogvisaTvis.
gankargvad Semosavals easi gansazRvravs, rogorc maqsimalur Tanxas,
romlis daxarjva SeuZliaT Sinameuneobebs saangariSo periodSi
saboloo moxmarebaze, dagrovebuli finansuri da arafinansuri aqtivebis
CarTvis da valdebulebebis gazrdis gareSe.
koreqtirebuli gankargadi Semosavali _ esaa gankargvad Semosavals
plius Sinameuneobis mier saxelmwifo dawesebulebebisagan da
arakomerciuli organizaciebisagan naturaluri fomiT miRebuli
socialuri transferebi:
kgS = gS + st
kategoria ,,koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali” mniSvnelovania
mosaxleobis ganviTarebis donis ufro kompleqsuri daxasiaTebisaTvis,
ramdenadac iZleva mosaxleobis keTildReobis im komponentebis
gaTvaliswinebis saSualebas, romlebic dakavSirebulia saqonlisa da
mosaxurebis ufasod miRebasTan.
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Semosavlebis CamoTvlili saxeobebi gaiangariSeba mimdinare da mudmiv
fasebSi. Semosavlebi mimdinare fasebSi iwodeba nominalur Semosavlebad,
mudmiv fasebSi ki _ realur Semosavlebad.
Semosavlebis gadaangariSeba mimdinare fasebidan realur fasebSi
xorcieldeba samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis safuZvelze (Isam.fas.):
pSreal. = pSnom./Isam.fas,
sadac pSreal. Aaris pirveladi Semosavlebi mudmiv fasebSi;
pSnom. _ pirveladi Semosavlebi mimdinare fasebSi.
analogiurad gadaiangariSeba gankargvadi da koreqtirebuli gankargvadi
Semosavali mimdinare fasebidan mudmiv fasebSi.
Sinameuneobebis koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali gamoyenebis
stadiaze iyofa or nawilad:
faqtobrivi saboloo moxmareba;
danazogebi.
Sinameuneobebis faqtobrivi saboloo moxmareba Sedgeba samomxmareblo
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvaze gaweuli xarjebisa da
Sinameuneobebis mier saxelmwifo dawesebulebebis da arakomerciuli
organizaciebis seqtoridan miRebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
Rirebulebisgan.
saerTaSoriso klasifikaciis Tanaxmad samomxmareblo saqonlis da
momsaxurebis Sesyidvaze gaweuli xarjebi nawildeba Semdeg muxlebad:
sursaTi, sasmelebi, Tambaqo;
tansacmeli, fexsacmeli;
sacxovrisis da komunaluri momsaxurebis gadaxdebi;
avejisa da sacxovrisis Senaxva;
jandacva;
transporti da kavSirgabuloba;
215
kultura, dasveneba, sporti, turizmi;
ganaTlebis momsaxurebebi;
sastumroebi da restornebi;
sxva saqoneli da momsaxureba.
motanili klasifikaciis Sesabamisad mosaxleobis xarjebis Seswavlisas
gaiangariSeba:
struqturis maCveneblebi, e.i. yoveli muxlis wili xarjebis mTlian
moculobaSi;
dinamikis maCveneblebi;
struqturuli gansxvavebebis absoluturi da SefardebiTi
koeficientebi.
Sinameurneobebis xarjebis droSi struqturis cvlilebebis
Sesafaseblad SemoTavazebulia struqturuli Zvrebis absoluturi
koeficienti:
struqturuli Zvrebis absoluturi koeficienti = ,01
n
dd
sadac 1d da 0d aris konkretuli saxeobis xarjebis wili (%) Sesabamisad
saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi;
n _ xarjebis jgufis ricxvi.
Tu es koeficienti 3%-ze metia, maSin xarjebis struqtura saangariSo
periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT arsebiTad Seicvala.
bulgareli statistikosis g.gateevis mier SemoTavazebulia
struqturuli Zvrebis integraluri koeficienti (Kint.):
Kint. = .)
)(2
1
2
0
2
01
dd
dd
216
es maCvenebeli iqneba nulis toli, Tu Sesadarisi struqturebi ar
Seicvala. Tu Sesadarisi struqturebi mTlianad Seicvala, is 1-is toli
iqneba.
struqturuli Zvrebis integraluri koeficienti SeiZleba gamoyenebul
iqnes erT periodSi, magram mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufSi xarjebis
struqturaSi gansxvavebebis dasaxasiaTeblad:
Kint. = ,)(
)(
22
2
ji
ji
dd
dd
sadac id da jd aris saangariSo periodSi Sinameurneobis sxvadasxva
socialuri jgufebis konkretuli saxeobis xarjebis wili.
mosaxleobis keTildReobis xarisxis kriteriumia saojaxo biujetSi
sasursaTo saqonelze daxarjuli saSualebebis wili.
engelis kanonis Sesabamisad rac ufro maRalia es wili, miT ufro
dabalia keTildReobis done. ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikaSi kvebaze
ixarjeba yvela saxeobis Semosavlebis 20%-mde. Tu kvebaze ixarjeba
yvela saxeobis Semosavlebis 60-70%, maSin qveyana iTvleba Raribad, da am
SemTxvevaSi, mosaxleobis didi nawili, gamomdinare moxmarebis
mecnierulad dasabuTebuli normebidan, aris naklebad uzrunvelyofili.
garda amisa engelis kanoni axasiaTebs samomxmareblo saqonlis da
momsaxurebis xarjebis damokidebulebas Semosavlebis cvlilebaze.
realuri gankargvadi Semosavlebis zrdisas meoradi keTildReobis
moxmareba izrdeba ufro swrafad, vidre pirveli moTxovnilebis
sagnebisa.
xarjebis dinamikis Sewavlisas gaiangariSeba xarjebis yoveli muxlis
absuluturi mateba, zrdis da matebis tempebi.
rac Seexeba struqturuli Zvrebis absolutur da SefardebiT
koeficientebs, isini SeiZleba gaangariSdes dinamikaSi da sivrceSi. am
217
koeficientebis gaangariSeba gansakuTrebul interess warmoadgens qveynis
SigniT mosaxleobis socialuri jgufebis xarjebis struqturaSi
gansxvavebebisa da sxvadasxva qveynis mosaxleobis xarjebis struqturaSi
gansxvavebebis dasaxasiaTeblad.
Tu koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali (kgS) aRemateba faqtobriv
saboloo moxmareba (fsm), maSin adgili aqvs mTlian dazogvas (md):
md = kgS _ fsm.
msoflio praqtikaSi, Semosvalebis im nawilis dasaxasiaTeblad, romelic
xarjebis anazRaurebis Semdeg rCeba mosaxleobas, gaiagariSeba Semdegi
maCveneblebi:
1. dazogvisken midrekileba = dazogvis absuluturi mateba/fuladi
Semosavlebis absolutruri mateba
es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba danazogebisa da Semosavlebis kavSiris
Sesaswavlad. Tu es Tanafardoba meryrobs 25-33% farglebSi, maSin
mdgomareoba iTvleba normalurad. am sazRvrebis gadameteba adasturebs,
rom dazogva aris iZulebiTi da gamowveulia saWiro saqonlis da
momsaxurebis naklebobiT. dazogvis es nawili iwodeba moTxovnis
inflaciad.
dazogvisken midrekilebis maCvenebelze moqmedi faqtorebis Sewavla aris
saerTaSoriso statistikis mniSvnelovani amocana da warmoadgens,
mosaxleobis Tavisufali resursebis, investirebis da Semosavlebis
gadanawilebis mizniT, mozidvis sakiTxebiT dakavebul, saxelmwifo
mmarTvelobis organoebis praqtikul interess.
2. danazogis norma = danazogis jami/mTliani gankargvadi Semosavali.
mosaxleobis danazogi SeiZleba gamoisaxos naturalur da RirebulebiT
formaSi.
218
danazogebis RirebulebiTi forma warmoadgens mosaxleobis xelze
fulis matebas da fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebis matebas.
mosaxleobis danazogi naturaluri formiT _ esaa mosaxleobis
kuTvnili materialuri aqtivebis (kerZo sakuTrebaSi miwis, sacxovrisis,
sameurneo nagebobebis, transportis, materialuri maragebis) Rirebulebis
matebas.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis Sewavla
Semosavlebis donesa da maT mimRebTa ricxvs Soris arsebobs
ukudamokidebuleba. ekonomikur literaturaSi am damokidebulebam
miiRo paretos kononis saxelwodeba, xolo mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi
uTanabrobis raodenobrivma sazomma _ paretos koeficientis
saxelwodeba.
italielma ekonomistma da sociologma v. paretom ganazogada zogierTi
qveynis mosaxleobis Semosavlebze monacemebi da mivida daskvnamde, rom
Semosavlebis donesa da maT mimRebTa ricxvs Soris arsebobs
ukudamokidebuleba.
amerikelma statistikosma m. lonrencma ganaviTara paretos kanoni. mis
mier gamoyvanili damokidebuleba man aCvena krafikze da gamosaxa
SefardebiTi sidideebiT. grafikma miiRo lorencis mrudis saxelwodeba,
an koncentraciis mrudis.
italielma ekonomistma k. jinim SemogvTavaza Semosavlebis ganawilebis
raodenobrivi daxasiaTeba lorencis mrudiT Seqmnili segmentis farTisa
da kvadratis diagonalis am kvadratis farTis naxevarTan Sefardebis
saxiT.
lorencis meTodi gansxvavdeba paretos meTodidan imiT, rom
Semosavlebis (simdidris) moculoba, da agreTve miRebuli Semosavlebis
an simdidris mflobelebis raodenoba gamoisaxeba SefardebiTi
ricxvebiT.
219
mosaxleobis socialuri diferenciaciis Seswavla warmoadgens
saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-erT aqtualur amocanas. Semosavlebis
diferenciacia iwvevs mosaxlebis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebaSi
gansxvavebebs, e.i. mis cxovrebis doneSi.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis dasaxasiaTeblad
gaiangariSeba Semdegi maCveneblebi:
modaluri Semosavali;
medianuri Semosavali;
lorencis koeficienti;
jinis koeficienti;
struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti;
Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri (10) koeficienti;
fondebis koeficienti;
Semosavlebis deficiti.
modaluri Semosavali (moda) esaa Semosavlis done, romelic
mosaxleobaSi yvelaze xSirad gvxdeba:
,)()( 3212
120
ffff
ffixM
oM
sadac oMx aris modaluri itervalis qveda zRvari;
i _ modaluri itervalis sidide;
2f _ modaluri itervalis sixSire;
1f _ modaluris wina itervalis sixSire;
3f _ modaluris momdevno itervalis sixSire;
medianuri Semosavali (mediana) _ esaa ganawilebis ranJirebuli mwkrivis
SuaSi myofi Semosavlis maCvenebeli:
,21
Me
m
MeMef
Sf
ixM
220
sadac Mex aris medianuri itervalis qveda zRvari;
i _ medianuri itervalis sidide;
1mS _ medianur itervalamde dagrovili sixSireTa jami;
Mef _ medianuri itervalis sixSire.
medianuri da modaluri Semosavlebi aris saSualosuladi Semosavlis,
misi saSualo mniSvnelobidan gadaxris mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli. Tu
Semosavlebis medianuri da modaluri sidideebi dabalia saSualo
doneze, es niSnavs, imas rom Sinameuneobebis erTobliobis umetes nawils
an gamokvleul pirTa umetesobas aqvs Semosavlebis saSulo
mniSvnelobaze damali Semosavlebi.
socialuri uTanabrobis lorencis koeficienti ganisazRvreba
formuliT:
lorencis koeficienti 2
yx,
sadac x aris Semosavlebis gansazRvruli donis mosaxleobis wilia
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi;
y _ yoveli jgufis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis wili Semosavlebis
mTlian moculobaSi.
lorencis koeficienti uCvenebs mosaxleobis calkeul jgufebs Soris
Semosavlebis ganawilebis Tanabrobis dones, an Semosavlebis
koncentraciis dones da icvleba 0-dan _ 1-mde. sruli Tanabrobis
SemTxvevaSi es maCvenebeli nulis tolia, e.i. saubaria Semosavlebis
egalitarul ganawilebaze (yvela monawile ganawilebaSi Rerbulobs
Tanabar wils). sruli uTanabrobis SemTxvevaSi lorencis koeficienti
erTis tolia, e.i. saubaria Semosavlebis antiegalitarul ganawilebaze.
(ganawilebis erTi monawile Rebulobs yvela Semosavals).
jinis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:
jinis koeficienti = *(21 x ykum.)+ xy
221
jinis koeficienti icvleba 0-dan _ 1-mde. ramdenad ufro uaxlovdeba
misi mniSvneloba 1-s, miT ufro maRalia uTanabrobis done Semosavlebis
ganawilebaSi (e.i. DmiT ufro didi doniTaa koncentrirebuli
Semosavlebi mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis xelSi)
struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:
struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti = ,)(
)(2
2
yx
yx
sadac x aris Semosavlebis gansazRvruli donis mosaxleobis wilia
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi;
y _ yoveli jgufis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis wili Semosavlebis
mTlian moculobaSi.
Semosavlebis deciluri koeficienti _ esaa yvelaze mdidari 10%
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis jamis Sefardeba yvelaze naklebad
uzrunvelyofili 10% mosaxleobis Semosavlebis jamTan:
,1
9
D
DKD
sadac 9D da 1D _ Sesabamisad mecxre da pirveli decilia.
Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti uCvenebs Tu
ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze mdidari 10% mosaxleobis minimaluri
Semosavlebi naklebad uzrunvelyofili 10% mosaxleobis maqsimalur
Semosavlebs.
fondebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:
fondebis koeficienti = ,
1
_
10
_
D
D
sadac 1
_
D da 10
_
D aris Sesabamisad minimaluri Semosavlis mqone 10%
mosaxleobis TveSi saSualosuladi Semosavali, da misi yvelaze mdidari
nawilis 10%-sa.
222
fondebis koeficienti SeiZleba ganisazRvros aseve formuliT:
fondebis koeficienti = ,1
10
D
D
sadac 1D da 10D aris saSualosuladi Semosavali TveSi Sesabamisad
minimaluri Semosavlis mqone 10% mosaxleobis da 10% yvelaze mdidari
mosaxleobisa.
Semosavlebis deficiti ganisazRvreba mosaxleobis im nawilisaTvis,
romlebis faqtiuri Semosavlebi saarsebo minimumze dabalia:
Semosavlebis deficiti = ,**__
SDSSD Fm
sadac .
_
mD da FD_
aris Sesabamisad minimaluri da faqtiuri
saSualosuladi Semosavli;
S _ saarsebo minimumze naklebi Semosavlebis mqone.
siRaribis statistikiuri Seswavla
mosaxleobis siRaribis Seswavla aris saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-
erTi umniSvnelovanesi amocana.
mosaxleobis siRaribis Seswavlisas aucilebelia iseTi cnebis
ganmarteba, rogoricaa siRaribis zRvari da Raribi mosaxleobisadmi
mikuTvnebis kritriumebis SemuSaveba.
siRaribis zRvars saerTaSoriso statistikaSi xangrZlivi drois
ganmavlobaSi ar hqonda mkafio gansazRvra da sxvadasxva qveyanaSi is
ganisazRvreboda sxvadsxvanairad. Tumca rekonstruqciisa da
ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso bankma 1972 wels aseT zRvrad daadgina
mosaxleobis uRaribesi 40% nawilis Semosavlebi, sxva qveynebSi _
saSualosuladi Semosavlebis 50%, xolo kanadaSi _ Semosavlebis 62%.
aSS-Si siRaribis zRvari ganisazRvreboda kvebis minimaluri racionis
samjeradi RirebulebiT.
223
amJamad msoflio bankis kriteriumebiT ukiduresi siRaribis zRvarad
evropisa da centraluri aziis gardamavali qveynebisaTvis iTvleba
dReSi erTi kacis xarjebi erTi dolaris doneze.
gaeros evropuli regionaluri komisiis kriteriumebiT evropis
ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis siRaribis SefardebiTi zRvari aris yveynis
mixedviT saSualo Semosavlebis 2/3 toli sidide.
evrokavSiris statistikuri komisiis kriteriumebiT evrokavSiris
qveynebSi siRaribis zRvari aris qveynis mosaxleobis medianuri
Semosavlis 50%.
siRaribis zRvari warmoadgens obieqturad gansazRvrul sidides,
gaangariSebuls gamomdinare materialuri keTildReobisa da
momsaxurebis moxmarebis minimaluri erovnuli normebidan.
Raribebs miekuTvnebian pirebi:
romelTa suladi Semosavlebis done saarsebo minimumze dabalia;
romelTa moxmarebuli kvebis produqtebis kaloriuloba
mecnierulad dasabuTebul minimalur fiziologiur normaze
dabalia;
romelTa Semosavlebi mosaxleobis danarCeni jgufebis
Semosavlebis doneze dabalia (magaliTad, mTliani erTobliobis
saSualo medeianuri an saSualo Semosavalis naxevarze dabalia);
romelTa SemosavlebSi kvebaze xarjebi aRemateba mocemul sidides.
Sso meTodologiiT, sakuTriv Raribebs miekuTvnebian pirebi, romelTa
erToblivi Semosavlebi saarsebo minimumze 2 jer dabalia.
siRaribis socialur-ekonomikuri portreti moicavs siRaribis, rogorc
sazogadoebis gansazRvruli nawilis aRmwer, daxasiaTebaTa sistemas. am
sistemas miekuTvneba:
demografiuli maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobis saSualo zoma,
Sobadoba, sikvdilianoba, avadoba);
224
ekonomikuri maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobebis qoneba, Semosavlebis
wyaroebi da maTi gamoyeneba)
socialuri maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobebis biujetis deficiti,
sacxovrebeli pirobebi, socialuri transferebi, kvebis
produqtebis kaloriuloba da done).
siRaribis mdgomareobis ufro siRrmiseuli SeswavlisaTvis gamoiyeneba
Semdegi maCvenebelTa sistema:
1. saarsebo minimumze dabali gankargvadi Semosavlebis mqone
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;
2. saarsebo minimumi;
3. siRaribis koeficienti;
4. Raribi mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavali;
5. Raribi ojaxebis Semosavlebis deficiti;
6. dabali Semosavlis Sualedi;
7. siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi;
8. siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi.
saarsebo minimumze dabali gankargvadi Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba ganisazRvreba, mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavlebis
donis mixedviT, mosaxleobis ganawilebis mwkrivebis safuZvelze, im
pirTa dajamebiT romelTa saSualo suladi Semosavlebi saarsebo
minimumze dabalia
saarsebo minimumi _ esaa adamianis sicocxliunarianobis uzrunvelyofisa
da misi janmrTelobis SenarCunebisaTvis aucilebeli materialuri
keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis minimaluri nakrebi.
ekonomikuri analizisas mniSvnelovania ara mxolod RaribTa saerTo
raodenobis gamovlena, aramed mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi
RaribTa wilis da maTi materialuri mdgomareobis deficiturobis donis
dadgena.
225
siRaribis done (koeficienti) = mosaxleobis ricxovnoba, romelTa
gankargvadi Semosavali saarsebo minimumze dabalia (Raribi mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba)/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTan.
es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs siRaribis zRvars miRma mcxovrebi mosaxleobis
wils.
Raribi mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavali = Raribi mosaxleobis
faqtiuri gankargvadi Semosavalis jami/ Raribi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba
siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi ( I ssiR.) ganisazRvreba formuliT:
I ssiR.=
n
i i
ii
SM
SHSM
N 1
1,
sadac N aris gamosakvlevi Sinameurneobebis saerTo ricxovnoba;
n_ saarsebo minimumze dabali Semosavlebis mqone Sinameurneobebis
ricxvi;
iSM _ i -ri Sinameurneobis saarsebo minimumis saSualo suladi
sidide, gaangariSebuli misi sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturis
gaTvaliswinebiT;
iD _ saarsebo minimumze dabali Semosavlebis mqone Sinameurneobebis
saSualo suladi Semosavali.
siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi axasiaTebs gamosakvlevi Sinameuneobebis
Semosavlis deficits, maTi Semosavlis erT meurneobis saarsebo
minimumidan martivi saSualo gadaxris saxiT.
siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi ( I ssimw.) ganisazRvreba formuliT:
I ssimw.=
2
1
1
n
i i
ii
SM
SHSM
N
226
siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi axasiaTebs Raribi Sinameurneobebis
Semosavlebis saSualo kvadratul gadaxras saarsebo minimumis
sidididan da gamoisaxeba Semosavlebis deficitis kvadratuli
jamobrivivi sididiT.
Raribi ojaxebis Semosavlebis deficiti _ esaa im fuladi saSualebebis
moculoba, romelic aucilebelia Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlebis
gasazrdelad siRaribis zRvrulamde.
Semosavlebis deficitis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba sxvadasxva tipis
ojaxze, ramdenadac yoveli ojaxisTvis arsebobs siRaribis konkretuli
zRvari. es zRvari damokidebulia ojaxis Semadgenolobaze, misi wevrebis
sqesobriv-asakobriv daxasiaTebebze. Semosavlebis deficiti gaiangariSeba
rogorc Raribi ojaxebis yvela jgufisTvis, aseve erTi ojaxisaTvis an
erT sul mosaxleze.
Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlebis deficiti axasiaTebs misi materialuri
arasakmarisobis dones.
dabali Semosalis Sualedi warmoadgens Semosavlis deficitis
Sefardebas saarsebo minimumTan:
dabali Semosalis Sualedi = Semosavlis deficiti/saarsebo minimumi
(siRaribis zRvari).
Tanamedrove etapze siRaribis ZiriTadi mizezebia:
daqiravebuli muSakebis calkeuli kategoriebis Sromis
anazRaurebis dabali done;
kmayofaze myofTa didi raodenoba;
umuSevroba;
pensiebisa da Semweobebis dabali done.
gaeros ganviTarebis programis specialistebis mier SemoTavazebulia
siRaribis indeqsi, romlis gaangariSebisas gaiTvaliswineba sami
227
maCvenebeli. es maCveneblebi gansazRvraven mosaxleobis SesaZleblobas
hqondes Rirseuli cxovreba. maT miekuTvnebian:
1. im mosaxleobis wili, romelTa sicocxlis mosalodneli
xangrZlivoba Seadgen 40 welze naklebs;
2. wera-kiTxvis ucodinarTa wili zrdasruli mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnobaSi;
3. arsebobis materialuri pirobebi.
bolo maCvenebeli moicavs Semdeg elementebs:
mosaxleobis im nawils, romlebisTvis miuwdomelia samedicino
momsaxureba;
mosaxleobis im nawils, romlebisTvis miuwdomelia dasalevi
wyali;
xuT wlamde bavSvebis wili, romlebic ganicdian sakvebis
ukmarisobas.
siRaribis saerTo indeqsi warmoadgens regionis an qveynis mosaxleobis
wils, romelSic adgili aqvs CamoTvlil faqtorebs.
gaeros ganviTarebis programis monacemebiT 1994 wlis ganmavlobaSi
adamianTa siRaribis yvelaze maRali indeqsi moidioda pakistanze (46,8%).
adamianiseuli potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsis da adamianTa siRaribis
indeqsis monacemTa Sedarebisas SeiZleba daskvnis gakeTeba imaze, rom
maT Soris arsebobs ukukavSiri.
materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis
maCveneblebi
mosaxlebis mier materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis
moxmarebis donis da zrdis tempebis maCveneblebi miekuTvneba
mosaxleobis keTildReobisa da kulturuli zrdis maxasiaTebel
maCveneblebs. moTxovnilebebs warmoSobs sazogadoebis wevrebis
cxovrebis obieqturi pirobebi. isini asaxaven moxmarebis aucilebel
dones sazogadoebis sawarmoo Zalebis sakmaris doneze ganviTarebisas.
228
warmoeba da moxmareba urTierTdakavSirbulia. dagrovebis gadideba qmnis
warmoebis gafarToebis, da maSasadame, moxmarebis donis da
moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis xarisxis zrdis bazas. moxmarebis zrda
ki Tavis mxriv qmnis warmoebis gafarToebis, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis
amaRlebis winapirobas.
mosaxleobis moxmareba moicavs:
materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebas;
momsaxurebis moxmarebas.
materialuri keTildReobis da momsaxurebis moxmarebis statistika
moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs:
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis saerTo maculoba;
konkretuli saxeobis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis
saerTo maculoba;
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis moculoba erT sul
mosaxleze;
materialur keTildReobasa da momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis
moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis koeficienti;
elastikurobis koeficienti.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis saerTo maculoba, rogorc
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis RirebulebiTi
daxasiaTeba, miekuTvneba cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan maCvenebelTa
ricxvs.
mniSvnelobis donis mixedviT materialur keTildReobasa da
momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis yvela xarji klasificirdeba sam jgufad:
pirveladi moTxovnilebis sagnebi;
naklebi moTxovnilebis sagnebi;
fufunebis sagnebi.
229
materialuri keTildReoba, gamoyenebis vadebis mixedviT, iyofa Semdeg
kategoriebze:
erTjeradi gamoyenebis (kvebis produqtebi);
araxangrZlivi gamoyenebis (tansacmeli, fexsacmeli);
xangrZlivi gamoyenebis (sam welze meti: aveji, sameurneo
daniSnulebis sagnebi, satransporto sasualebebi).
konkretuli saxeobis materialuri keTildReobis )(q moxmarebis saerTo
maculoba gaizomeba gazomvis naturalur erTeulebSi da warmoadgens
mTliani mosaxleobis mier ama Tu im saqonlis moxmarebis moculobas.
moxmarebis maculoba erT sul mosaxleze (individualuri moxmarebis
done) ganisazRvreba konkretuli saxeobis materialuri keTildReobi )(q
moxmarebis saerTo muculobis gayofiT mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnobaze
_
)(S :_
S
qDF ,
sadac FD aris erT sul mosaxleze konkretuli saxeobis materialuri
keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri done.
es maCvenebeli ganisazrvreba mTliani mosaxleobis, calkeuli
socialuri jgufebis, asakis, sqesis da a.S. mixedviT.
saerTaSoriso statistikaSi Teoriulad da praqtikulad ufro
SemuSavebulia mosaxleobis mier, naturalur gamosaxulebaSi, kvebis
produqtebis moxmarebis individualuri donis Sefaseba. am dros
gamoiyofa Semdegi kvebis produqtebi:
purproduqtebi;
bostneuli da baxCeuli;
xirci da xorcis produqtebi, xorcze gadaangariSebiT;
kartofili;
xili da kenkri;
rZe da rZis produqtebi, rZeze gadaangariSebiT;
230
Saqari;
kvercxi;
Tevzi da Tevzis produqtebi, Tevzze gadaangariSebiT;
mcenareuli zeTi.
kvebis produqtebis moxmareba ganixileba rogorc raodenobis aseve
xarisxis TvalsazrisiT. am mizniT saerTaSoriso statistikis praqtikaSi
gamoiTvleba moxmarebuli sakvebis kaloriulobis maCvenebeli, da
agreTve cilebis, cximebis, naxSirwylebis, vitaminebis Semcveloba.
kvebis produqtebis dabali xarisxi auaresebs mosaxleobis
janmrTelobis mdgomareobas, iwvevs seriozul daavadebebs.
mosaxleobis mier kvebis produqtebis moxmarebis maCveneblebi Znelad
eqvendebareba saerTaSoriso masStabiT Sedarebas. es aixsneba imiT, rom
moxmarebis struqturasa da doneze gavlenas axdens ama Tu im qveyanaSi
Seqmnili klimaturi pirobebi, erovnuli da kulturuli tradiciebi,
mosaxleobis struqtura sqesis, asakis, dasaqmebis saxeobis mixedviT.
moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis donis gamosavlenad saWiroa
moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis koeficientis ( DK ) gansazRvra:
,N
FD
D
DK
sadac FD aris erT sul mosaxleze calkeuli materialuri
keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri done;
ND _ mecnierulad dasabuTebuli done.
Tumca calkeuli konkretuli materialuri keTildReobis mixedviT
dakmayofilebis donis maCveneblebi ar iZleva mosaxleobis
moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis ganzogadebul daxasiaTebebs. amisaTvis
gaiangariSeben yvela moxmarebuli saqonlis mixedviT moTxovnilebaTa
dakmayofilebis donis indeqss:
231
,
N
F
pD
pDI
sadac FpD aris erT sul mosaxleze yvela saqonlis faqtiuri
moxmarebis Rirebuleba;
FpD _ erT sul mosaxleze am saqonelTa normatiuli nakrebis
Rirebuleba.
mosaxleobis mier materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis
damokidebuleba Semosavlebze gaizomeba a. marSalis elastikurobis
empiriuli koeficientis meSveobiT:
K el.= ,x
y
sadac y aris saSualosuladi moxmarebis matebis tempi %-Si;
x _ saSualosuladi Semosavlis matebis tempi %-Si.
elastikurobis koeficienti axasiaTebs, moxmarebis matebis ramdeni
procenti modis Semosavlebis matebis 1%-ze.
magaliTi. cxrilSi motanili monacemebis safuZvelze gaviangariSoT
elastikurobis koeficienti da gavakeToT daskvna.
mosaxleobis saSualosuladi Semosavlebi da xarjebi
erT sul mosaxleze sabaziso
periodi
saangariSo periodi
saSualosuladi Semosavli (f.e.)
saSualosuladi xarjebi kvebis
produqtebze (f.e.)
340
290
370
300
mocemul SemTxvevaSi K el.= .39,08,8
4,3
100100*340
370
100100*290
300
232
es niSnavs, rom Semosavlebis 1%-iT zrdisas kvebis produqtebze xarjebi
gaizarda 0,39%-iT.
elastikurobis koeficienti SeiZleba iyos 1-ze naklebi, 1-is toli da 1-
ze meti. is SeiZleba iqnes gaangariSebuli mTlianad yvela moxmarebuli
keTildReobis, calke sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlis mixedviT,
aseve sasursaTo saqonlis calkeuli saxeobebis mixedviT (puri, Saqari
da a.S.).
elastikurobis koeficienti Semosavlisgan sxvadasxva saqonlisa da
momsaxurebisaTvis gansxvavebulia. Tu elatikurobis koeficienti 1-is
tolia, maSin moxmareba icvleba Semosavlebis proporciulad. Tu is 1-ze
naklebia, maSin moxmareba izrdeba ufro nela vidre Semosavali da es
niSnavs imas, rom mocemuli saxeobis moxmarebaze xarjebis wili
mcirdeba. Tu is 1-ze metia, maSin moxmarebis zrdis tepi Semosavlebis
zrdis tempze maRalia, e.i. mocemuli saxeobis moxmarebaze xarjebis wili
izrdeba.
Semosavlisgan elastikurobis koeficienti kvebaze 1-ze naklebia,
samrewvelo saqonelze ki 1-ze meti.
cxadia, ramdenad metia Semosavlisgan moxmarebis elastikurobis
koeficienti, miT naklebia mocemuli saxeobis materialuri
keTildReobis moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis done.
mosaxleobis xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonliT uzrunvelyofis
dasaxasiaTeblad saerTaSoriso statistikis praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba
uzrunvelyofilobis maCvenebeli (100 ojaxze an mosaxleobis 1000 kacze):
Muzr.= mosaxleobaSi arsebuli xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqoneli/ojaxis
ricxvi *100;
Muzr. = mosaxleobaSi arsebuli xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqoneli/
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba *1000.
233
uzrunvelyofiloba 100 ojaxze ganisazRvreba iseTi xangrZlivi
moxmarebis saqonlis mixedviT, romelic esaWiroeba ojaxs mTlianad
(macivari, televizori, sarecxi manqana da a.S.).
garda materialuri keTildReobisa mosaxleoba sargeblobs sxvadasxva
saxeobis momsaxurebas. momsaxurebis moxmareba gansxvavdeba materialuri
keTildReobis moxmarebisgan, imiT rom momsaxurebis warmoeba droSi ar
emTxveva mis moxmarebas.
ganasxvaveben fasian (sabazro) da ufaso (arasabazro) momsaxurebas. eas-
Si sabazro momsaxurebis arasabazrosgan gansasxvaveblad gamoiyeneba
gamoSvebis meTodi (sabazro fasebis mixedviT). Tu momsaxurebisgan
amonagebi faravs momsaxurebis gawevasTan dakavSirebuli xarjebis 50%-ze
mets, maSin es momsaxureba iTvleba sabazrod, Tu 50%-ze naklebs _
arasabazrod.
yvela samomxmareblo saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis
moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:
,
:_
PMpq
SMPqpK
NN
sadac q aris materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri
moculoba; M _ momsaxurebis moxmarebis faqtiuri moculoba; p _
saqonlis an momsaxurebis fasi; Nq _ saqonlis moxmarebis norma; NM _
momsaxurebis moxmarebis norma; _
S _ mosaxleobis ricxovnoba; pqN _ erT
sul mosaxleze saqonlis moxmarebis norma RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi;
pM N _ erT sul mosaxleze momsaxurebis moxmarebis norma RirebulebiT
gamosaxulebaSi.
adaminis humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi
specialur literaturaSi didi xania ganxileba mosaxleobis cxovrebis
donis erTiani ganzogadebuli (integraluri) maCveneblis SemuSavebis
234
mizanSewonilobisa da SesaZleblobis sakiTxi. amdagvari maCveneblis
SemuSaveba saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa.
misi SemuSavebis aucilebloba eWvs ar iwvevs.
ramdenadac ganzogadebuli maCvenebeli Sedgeba kerZo maCveneblebisgan, is
unda uzrunvelyofdes yvela kerZo maCveneblis meTodologiur
erTianobas da gamosakvlevi maCveneblis dinamikisa da donis
erTmniSvnelovan Sefasebas.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis amdagvari ganzogadebuli maCveneblis
gaangariSebis SesaZleblobebi mravali aTeuli wlis ganmavlobaSi
ganixileboda gaero-Si. gaeros eqspertTa azriT statistikam jer kidev
ver ipova kerZo maCveneblebis gaerTianebisa da yovlismomcveli
maCvenebelis miRebis racionaluri xerxi. miuxedavad amisa aseTi
maCveneblis SemoTavazebis mcdeloba iyo yovelTvis da dRemde
grZeldeba.
gaeros socialuri statistikis samuSao jgufis mier ganzogadebuli
maCveneblebis saxiT SemoTavazebuli iyo erovnuli Semosavali erT sul
mosaxleobaze, kvebaze xarjebis wili Sinameurneobebis saerTo xarjebSi,
sikvdilianobis koeficienti gansazRvruli, rogorc 50-Ti da meti wlis
asakSi gardacvlilTa ricxvis Sefardeba gardacvlilTa saerTo
ricxovnobasTan, mosaxleobis sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba. Tumca
am maCveneblebis gamoyenebis praqtikam daadgina, rom arc erTi maTgani ar
SeiZleba gamodiodes mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maxasiaTebeli
ganzogadebuli maCveneblis saxiT. isini ufro warmoadgenen mosaxleobis
cxovrebis pirobebisa da gansazRvruli mxareebis maxasiaTebel kerZo
maCveneblebs.
bolo periodSi qveyanaTaSorisi SedarebisaTvis mosaxleobis cxovrebis
donis ganzogadebuli maCvenebelad gamoiyeneba adamianis potencialis
ganviTarebis indeqsi.
235
adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi _ esaa mosaxleobis
cxovrebis xarisxis kopleqsuri SedarebiTi daxasiaTeba. dawyebuli 1990
wlidan es maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba specializirebuli saerTaSoriso
organizaciis mier _ gaeros ganviTarebis programiT, mis mier, adamianis
mdgradi ganviTarebisaTvis sxvadasxva qveyanaSi arsebuli pirobebis
SefasebisaTvis, SemuSavebuli meTodologiiT.
adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi aris Sedgenili indeqsi,
romelic moicavs cxovrebis donis yvelaze mniSvnelovani aspeqtebis
amsaxvel sam maCvenebels:
1. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba.
2. ganaTlebis miRweuli done.
3. mSp-s realuri moculoba erT sul mosaxleobaze gaangariSebiT
(myidvelobiTi unaris paritetis safuZvelze dolarebSi).
adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi ganisazRvreba martivi
saSualo ariTmetikuliT aRniSnuli sami maCveneblis indeqsisgan:
apgi = .3
321 III
Tavis mxriv TiToeuli aRniSnuli indeqsi gaiangariSeba Semdegi
formuliT:
.minmax
min.
XX
XXI F
i
magaliTi. gvaqvs Semdegi monacemebi qveynis mixedviT:
dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, weli 70
mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis done, % 93
dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi saswavlo dawesebulebebis
moswavleTa erToblivi wili, % 69
realuri mSp-s erT sul mosaxleobaze (mup safuZvelze
dolarebSi) 3150
236
sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis indeqsis )( 1I gaangariSebisas
minimaluri mniSvneloba tolia 26 wlis, maqsimaluri _ 85 wlis.
.75,02585
2570
minmax
min.
XX
XXI F
i
ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi aris kombinirebuli maCvenebeli,
romelic ganisazrvreba mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis indeqsisa da
dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi saswavlo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa
erToblivi wilis indeqsis safuZvelze.
ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi )( 2I gaiangariSeba rogorc Sewonili
saSualo ariTmetikuli oro subindeqsisgan: mowifuli mosaxleobis
wignierbis indeqsis woniT 2/3 da dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi
saswavlo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa erToblivi wilis indeqsis woniT
1/3.
2I =2/3 I wig.+ 1/3 I wili,
mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis indeqsis ( I wig.) gaangariSebisas 15 da
meti wlis asakSi ,0min X %.100max X
I wig.= .93,00100
093
minmax
min.
XX
XX F
moswavleTa wilis indeqsi ganisazRvrisas 6-dan 24 wlamde asakis
pirebisaTvis: ,0min X %.100max X
I wili= .63,00100
069
minmax
min.
XX
XX F
maSin ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi )( 2I iqneba toli:
.85,069,0*3/193,0*3/22 I
erT sul mosaxleobaze realuri mSp-s indeqsis )( 3I gaangariSebisas am
maCveneblis minimaluri mniSvneloba miiReba 100 dolaris tolad, xolo
237
maqsimaluri mnisvneloba tolia keTildReobis maRali gonivruli
donisaTvis miRweuli zRvruli mniSvnelobisa. aseTad mTeli
msofliosaTvis iTvleba mSp saSualosuladi moculoba (5500):
3I = .897,01005500
1003150
minmax
min.
XX
XX F
adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi iqneba toli:
apgi = .832,03
897,085,075,0
ramdenad axlosaa apgi mniSvneloba 1-Tan, miT ufro maRalia mocemul
qveyanaSi adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis done. sxvaoba 1-sa da apgi
faqtiur mniSvnelobas Soris uCvenebs Tu ramdenia qveyanaSi kidev
gasakeTebeli zemoaRniSnuli donis misaRwevad.
maSasadame gaeros programis Tanaxmad nebismieri sazogadoebis mizani _
esaa am sami maCveneblidan TiToeulis maqsimaluri mniSvnelobis miRweva:
dabadebisas sicocxlis xangrZlivobis 85 wlamde gazrda, ganaTlebis
misawvdomoba qveynis mTliani mosaxleobisTvis, erT sul mosaxleobaze
mSp-s maRali (gonivrul sazrvrebSi) donis uzrunvelyofa.
apgi gamoiyeneba, adamianis ganviTarebis donis mixedviT, qveynebis
dajgufebis kriteriumad. qveynebSi sadac apgi toli an metia 0,8, iTvleba
adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis maRali donis qveynebad, qveynebi apgi
0,5_0,799 _ saSualo donis qveynebad da qveynebi apgi _ 0,5 iTvlebian
qveynebad adamianis ganviTarebis dabali doniT.
aRsaniSnavia, rom apgi gaangariSebis meTodologia mudmivad ixveweba.
diskusiuri rCeba misi agregirebisas gaTvaliswinebuli maCvenebelTa
SerCevis sakiTxi, da agreTve ganaTlebis miRweuli donis
gaangariSebisas gamoyenebuli wonebi.
rac Seexeba apgi gaangariSebisaTvis SerCeul maCveneblebs, gaeros
ganviTarebis programis specialistebis azriT, isini warmoadgenen
238
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donisa da pirobebis yvelaze mniSvnelovan
daxasiaTebas. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, Tavis
mxriv, aseve aris agregirebuli maCvenebeli, romelic amCnevs qveynis
ekonomikuri ganviTarebis dones, socialur politikas romelic tardeba
qveyanaSi, garemos, samedicino momsaxurebis xarisxs.
apgi gaangariSebis simartivis, universalobis, statistikuri
misawvdomobis miuxedavad, is ar SeiZleba gaangariSdes damoukideblad,
mSp dolarul ekvivalentSi gadaTvlis sirTulis gamo. am miznebisTvis
gamoiyeneba valutis myidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi, romlebic
ganisazRvreba xuT weliwadSi erTxel saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis
programebis Catarebis safuZvelze.
garda amisa, rogorc specialistebi Tvlian, apgi axasiaTebs Semdegi
naklovanebebi:
misi gaangariSebisaTvis, calkeuli qveynebis mixedviT, faqtiuri
monacemebis ar arseboba;
Semadgenlebis arasakmarisi nakrebi (mxolod sami maCvenebeli);
arasakmarisi argumentireba sabazo sidideebisaTvis miRebuli
zRvrebis sasargeblod (magaliTad, cxovrebis xangrZlivobis qveda
zRvari _ 25 weli, zeda _ 85 weli).
apgi asaxavs ara mxolod keTildReobis sidides, aramed gansazRvruli
qveynis mosaxleobis cxovrebis xarisxs. msoflioSi ufro meti
yuradReba eqceva adamianis potencialis ganviTarebas an egreT wodebuli
inteleqtualuri potencialis. ukanaskneli xdeba kacobriobis mdgradi
ganviTarebis mTavar faqtorad.
gaeros ganviTarebis programis specialistebis mier ganxorcielebuli
apgi mniSvnelobis gaangariSebebi, uCveneben, rom qveynebis umetesobaSi
misi mniSvneloba ganuxrelad izrdeba. apgi yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli
aRiniSna norvegiaSi (0,963) xolo yvelaze dabali _ siera-leoneSi (0,275
2001w.)
239
mosaxleobis Tavisufali drois statistika
samuSao drois Semcireba da Sesabamisad Tavisufali drois gazrda aris
cxovrebis donis zrdis faqtorebis erT-erTi maCvenebeli. Tavisufali
drois maCvenebeli Sedis statistikuri komisiis mier 1978 wels
SemuSavebul mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi.
Tavisufali dro gamoiyeneba kulturuli donis amaRlebaze, bavSvebis
aRzrdaze, adamianis fizikuri Zalebisa da janmrTelobis ganviTarebaze.
drois statistikuri Seswavlis ZiriTadi meTodologiuri sakiTxia
sakiTxi mis struqturaze:
fiziologiuri moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis dro (Zili, kveba,
Tavis movla;
samuSao dro (dro dakavSirebuli samuSaosTan, misi momzadebisa da
gzaze daxarjuli drois CaTvliT);
Tavisufali dro.
saSualo evropelisTvis Zili Seadgens dReRamis drois 33,5%, samuSao _
30,6%.
Tavisufali dro _ socialuri kategoria, romelsac uSualo
damokidebuleba aqvs pirovnebis ganviTarebasTan, da am gagebiT is
sazogadoebis simdidrea. diskusiuri aris Tavisufali drois normis
sakiTxi.
Tavisufali dro klasificirdeba Semdeg jgufebad:
Teatrebis, konos, koncertebis, sportiuli da sxva sanaxaobriv
RonisZiebebze daswreba;
telegadacemebis yureba, radios mosmena;
seirnoba da sporti;
Sexvedrebi, vizitebi, TamaSebi da a.S.;
dasvenebis sxva saxeobebi;
240
socialur-politikuri saqmianoba, mitingebi, krebebi, religiuri
saqmianoba.
Tavisufali drois Seswavlisas didi mniSvneloba aqvs Tavisufali
drois dayofas or nawilad:
sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro da misi wili;
ara sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro da misi wili.
am dros, sasargeblod gamoyenebul droSi SeiZleba gamoiyos aqtiurad
da pasiurad gatarebuli Tavisufali dro, romelic sxvadasvanairad
moqmedebs adamianis janmrTelobis mdgomareobaze.
ara sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro, _ esaa dro, daxarjuli sxvadasxva
organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis daswrebaze, spirtiani sasmelebis
dalevaze da narkotikebis moxmarebaze, alkoholur da narkotikul
simTvraleSi yofnis dro. am drois gamoyofa da Sedegebis analizi
aqtualuria praqtikulad msoflios yvela qveynisaTvis.
qveynebis mixedviT Tavisufali drois moculoba mkveTrad gansxvavdeba.
is naklebia qveynebSi, sad mosaxleoba gamoirCeva SromismoyvareobiT.
miCiganis universitetis mier Catarebuli saerTaSoriso kvlevebis
SedegebiT naklebi Tavisufali dro aqvT iaponelebs: 14 saaTamde
mamakacebs da 11 saaTamde qalebs. Tavisufali drois yvelaze maRali
maCvenebeli aqvT danielebs: mamakacebis Tavisufali dro kviraSi Seadgens
54 saaTs, qalebis _ 53 saaTs.
Tavisufali drois statistikis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamosxuli iqnes
absolutur monacemebSi (saaTebSi) da SefardebiT monacemebSi
(Tavisufali drois TiToeuli elementis wili Tavisufali drois
saerTo sidideSi).
Tavisufali drois statistikis erT-erTi amocanaa drois struqturis
Sewavla:
mosaxleobis calkeuli socialuri jgufebis;
241
mosaxleobis asakobrivsqesobrivi kategoriebis;
qalaqisa da soflis macxovreblebis;
sxvadasxva teritoriebis macxovreblebis.
sxvadasxva socialuri jgufebis, kacebisa da qalebis, sxvadasxva
teritoriis Tavisufali drois struqturaSi gansxvavebebis
dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo
wrfivi da saSualo kvadratuli koeficientebi.
struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo wrfivi koeficienti = .n
dd ji
struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo kvadratuli koeficienti =
,
2
n
dd ji
sadac id da jd _ drois danaxarjebis wili konkretul saxeobaze
Sesabamisad i -ur (magaliTad, mamakacebSi) da j -ur (qalebSi) jgufebSi.
magaliTi. cxrilSi motanilia monacemebi Tavisufali drois
danaxarjebze.
Tavisufali drois danaxarjebis struqtura
Tavisufali drois
elementebi
Tavisufali
danaxarjebis
drois
struqtura
%
ji dd 2ji dd
kacebi qalebi
Teatrebis, konos
daswreba
2,0 3,4 1,4 1,96
telegadacemebis
yureba
59,6 52,7 6,9 47.61
gazeTebis kiTxva 12.0 8,7 3,3 10,89
Sexvedrebi, vizitebi 12,3 19,3 7,0 49,00
seirnoba da sporti 5,6 5,3 0,3 0,09
242
sva danaxarjebi 8,5 10,6 2,1 4,41
sul 100,0 100,0 21,0 113,96
struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo wrfivi da saSualo kvadratuli
koeficientebi iqneba toli:
saSualo wrfivi koeficienti = %;5,36
21
saSualo kvadratuli koeficienti = 6
96,1134,4%
absoluturi struqturuli gansaxvavebebis wrfivma koeficientma uCvena,
rom Tavisufali drois gamoyenebis struqtura kacebsa da qalebs Soris
gansxvavebulia 3,5% -iT.
kvadratuli koeficientma daadastura es gansxvaveba, magram 4,4%-iT.
leqcia 12. statistikuri meTodebi saerTaSoriso modelirebasa da
prognozirebaSi
saleqcio sakiTxebi
1. modelirebisa da prognozirebis arsi
etapebi da ZiriTadi principebi
2. statistikuri modelebis klasifikacia
3. statistikuri prognozis klasifikacia
4. modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso
organizaciebi
modelirebisa da prognozirebis arsi,
etapebi da ZiriTadi principebi
statistikuri modelireba da prognozireba warmoadgens statistikuri
mecnierebis dargs. is, statistikuri cnebebis, kategoriebis da meTodebis
gamoyenebis safuZvelze, Seiswavlis masobrivi socialur-ekonomikuri
243
procesebis da movlenebis ganviTarebis ZiriTad kanonzomierebebsa da
tendenciebs warsulSi, awmyoSi da winaswar gansazRvravs maTi momavali
ganviTarebis ZiriTad mimarTulebebs.
statistikuri mecnierebis ZiriTad cnebebsa da kategoriebs miekuTvneba
niSani, variacia, maCvenebeli, statistikuri erToblioba, statistikuri
kanonzomiereba, did ricxvTa kanoni, statistikuri kavSiri.
modelirebasa da prognozirebaSi gamoiyeneba statistikis Semdegi
meTodebi: statistikuri dakvirveba, statistikuri dajgufeba, saSualo
sidideebis meTodi, saindeqso meTodi, korelaciuri da regresiuli
analizis meTodebi da a.S.
modelireba da prognozireba empiriuli da mecnieruli kvlevis
kopleqsur procesia, romelic Sedgeba Semdegi urTierTdakavSirebuli
etapebisagan:
1. modelirebisa da prognozirebis miznis, amocanebis, obieqtis zusti
gansazRvra da dasabuTeba. am etapze ganisazRvreba kvlevis mizani,
ZiriTadi amocanebi da maTi gadawyvetis gzebi, saprognozo obieqtis
zusti gansazRvra da gamoyofa, aseve misi warsuli ganviTarebis zogadi
daxasiaTeba da sxva obieqtebTan urTierTkavSiris dadgena;
2. saWiro informaciuli bazis Seqmna. es etapi iTvaliswinebs kvlevis
obieqtis da masze moqmedi faqtorebis Sesaxeb informaciis miRebas,
dajgufebas da sistematizacias;
3. prognozirebis meTodis SerCeva. mocemul etapze xdeba im
meTodebisa da xexebis SerCeva, romelTa meSveobiT unda ganisazRvros
Sesaswavli obieqtis momavali ganviTarebis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi da
maCveneblebi. prognozis meTodis SerCeva umetesad damokidebulia
arsebul informaciaze;
4. saprognozo modelis ageba da prognozuli maCveneblebis
gaangariSeba. am etapze Sesaswavli obieqtis prognozi Rebulobs
Camoyalibebul saxes im mravalricxovani maCveneblebis gamoTvliT,
romlis mixedviT ganisazrvreba saprognozo obieqtis momavali
cvlilebis konkretuli mdgomareoba. zogierT SemTxvevaSi modelis ageba
244
SeiZleba ar iyos aucilebeli, es dakavSirebulia wina etapze SerCeuli
meTodis saxeobasTan;
5. miRebuli prognozebis Sefaseba. am damamTavrebel etapze xdeba im
pirobebis dadgena, romlisTvisac samaraliani da sworia prognozuli
maCveneblebi da ganisazRvreba prognozebis ganxorcielebis albaToba.
Yprognozirebis yvela etapi erTmaneTTan organul kavSirSia, rac
niSnavs imas, rom yoveli momdevno etapis ganxorcieleba uSualod
dakavSirebulia wina etapze miRebul SedegebTan. romelime samuSaos
Seusrulebloba iwvevs mTlianad prognozirebis mocemuli miznisa da
amocanis ganuxorcieleblobas.
modelirebisa da prognozirebis ZiriTadi principebia:
sistemuroba. socialir-ekonomikuri procesebis da movlenebis
sistemur asaxvas unda axasiaTebdes iseTi Tvisebebi, rogoricaa
mTlianoba, struqtura, ierarqiuloba, funqcionaluroba,
mizanmimarTuleba da marTvadoba;
dakvirvebadoba. dakvirvebad monacemebs unda axasiaTebdes iseTi
aspeqtebi, rogoricaa raodenobrivi, kazualuri, gnoseologiuri,
komunikaciuri, semantikuri da Teoriul-SemecnebiTi;
alternatiuloba. es principi aerTianebs empiriul da
meTodologiur aspeqtebs (prognozis alternatiuli variantebis
raodenoba damokidebulia ara mxolod obieqtis ganviTarebis
xasiaTze, aramed prognozirebis gamoyenebul saxeobaze);
kompleqsuroba. is gulisxmobs saprognozo obieqtis asaxvas,
calkeuli elementebis urTierTkavSirebis, maTi erTmaneTze
urTierTzemoqmedebis da aseve maTi gare pirobebTan urTierTobis
momcveli, gansazRvruli sistemisa da qvesistemebis saxiT. es
principi Sesaswavli procesebis kompleqsur asaxvasTan erTad
iTvaliswinebs konkretuli prognozebis kompleqsis SemuSavebas,
romelic SeiZleba moicavdes calkeul damoukidebel prognozebs.
aseT SemTxvevaSi aigeba rTuli sistemebis momcveli rTuli
prognozuli kompleqsebi.
mecnieruli dasabuTebuloba. praqtikul gamokvlevebSi am principis
realizacia gulisxmobs miRebuli prognozis xarisxis
245
efeqtianobis, sandoobisa da sizustis gansazRvras, e.i. mis
verifikacias.
statistikuri modelebis klasifikacia
modelirebaSi kvlevis procesebis mimarTulebaTa Sesabamisad modelebi
SeiZleba dajgufdes ekonomikur-maTematikur da ekonomikur-statistikur
modelebad
ekonomikur-maTematikuri modelebis gamoyeneba dakavSirebulia
umTavresad funqcionalur damokidebulebaSi myofi movlenebis
modelirebasTan.
ekonomikur-statistikuri modelebi ki gamoiyeneba iseTi raodenobrivi
kanonzomierebis asaxvisas, romlebic vlindeba movlenaTa da procesTa
did masaSi.
statistikuri modelebis arsi ZiriTadad mdgomareobs iseTi modelebis
agebaSi, romelTa safuZvelze Seiswavleba kvlevis obieqtis ganviTareba
da masze moqmedi mravali ZiriTadi da SemTxveviTi faqtoris gavlenis
xasiaTi. kvlevis procesis aseTi mimarTuleba moicavs korelaciur
analizs, ganawilebis kanonebis Seswavlasa da statistikuri cdebis
meTodebs (monte karlos meTodi) da sxv.)
modeli gamoiyeneba agreTve Sesawavli obieqtis Sesaxeb iseTi
monacemebis misaRebad, romlebic SeuZlebelia an sakmaod Znelia miviRoT
uSualo originalis SewavliT. imisaTvis, rom modelma es amocana
Seasrulos, igi unda iyos ara mxolod original-obieqtTan
SesabamisobaSi myofi, aramed misgan gansxvavebulic. originalisgan
modelis gansxvaveba _ modelis aucilebeli, obieqturi niSania.
statistikuri modelebi Tavisi SemecnebiTi funqciebis mixedviT SeiZleba
daiyos Semdeg modelebad:
246
struqturul (statistikuri dakvirveba, TandamTxveva, ganawilebis
mrudebi);
dinamikur (trenduli, cikluri gadaxrebi, zrdis mrudebi,
erTfaqtoriani, mravalfaqtoriani);
urTierTkavSirebis (regresiis gantoleba, regresiis gantolebaTa
sistema, mravalganzomilebiani klasifikacia).
yvela arniSnuli modeli farTod gamoiyeneba socialur-ekonomikuri
movlenebisa da procesebis statistikur modelirebasa da prognozirebis
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi.
statistikuri prognozis klasifikacia
statistikuri prognozi warmoadgens mecnierulad dasabuTebuli
kvlevis konkretul Sedegs, romelSic mocemulia Sesaswavli obieqtis
momavali cvlilebebis dasabuTebuli Sefaseba
statistikuri prognozebi unda akmayofilebdes Semdeg ZiriTad
moTxovnebs:
igi SemuSavebuli unda iyos sakmarisad didi moculobis utyuari,
erTgvarovani da Sesadari informaciis arsebobis pirobebSi;
igi asaxuli unda iyos statsitikuri maCveneblebis saSualebiT;
igi miRebuli unda iyos statistikuri meTodebisa da xerxebis
gamoyenebiT;
misi sizustisa da xarisxis Semowmeba SesaZlebeli unda iyos
statistikuri kriteriumebiT;
igi unda iZleodes kvlevis obieqtis Sesaxeb axal informacias, rac
gaafarToebs misi Semecnebis sazRvrebs;
misi SemuSavebis procesSi SesaZlebeli unda iyos gaangariSebaTa
Catareba Tanamedrove kompiuteruli teqnikis gamoyenebiT.
prognozirebis miznis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
saZiebo. prognozi, romelSic mocemulia Sesaswavli obieqtis
momavali cvlilebis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi;
247
normatiuli. asaxavs kvlevis obieqtis ganviTarebis dasaxuli
miznis (sasurveli donis) miRwevis gzebs, problemebsa da vadebs.
mas sxvanairad miznobriv prognozs uwodeben.
prognozirebis obieqtis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
ekonomikuri;
socialuri;
mecnierul-teqnikuri;
politikuri;
samxedro;
ekologiuri.
garda amisa xSirad muSavdeba, e.w. Sereuli saxis statistikuri
prognozebi, romlebSic aisaxeba gansxvavebuli bunebis obieqtebi. aseTi
prognozebis magaliTia demo-ekonomikuri prognozebi, samxedro-
politikuri prognozebi, geo-ekonomikuri prognozebi, socialur-
demografiuli prognozebi da sxva.
drois mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
operatiuli (ramdenime dRidan erT Tvemde);
moklevadiani (ramdenime Tvidan 2 wlamde);
saSualovadiani (3-dan 8 wlamde);
grZelvadiani (8-dan 20 wlamde);
zevadiani (20 welze zeviT).
teritoriis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
sublokaluri. asaxavs konkretuli movlenis an procesis momavali
ganviTarebis mecnierul Sefaseba SezRuduli masStabis farglebSi
(mosaxleobis ricxovnobis prognozi qveynis calkeuli qalaqebis an
raionebis mixedviT);
lokaluri. es prognozi SedarebiT ufro farToa, vidre
sublokaluri da gulisxmobs sxvadsxva obieqtis prognozs
mTliand qveynis mixedviT;
248
globaluri prognozebi. muSavdeba calkeuli qveynebis an qveynebis
jgufebis mixedviT;
superglobaluri prognozi. moicavs mTel msoflios.
dargebis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
mikroekonomikuri;
dargobrivi;
dargTaSorisi;
makroekonomikuri.
prognozirebis meTodis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:
eqstrapolacia;
eqspertuli Sefaseba;
statistikuri modelireba;
normatiuli;
analogia
prognozis sizustis mixedviT:
arazusti (miuRebeli);
damakmayofilebeli;
zusti;
zezusti.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi, socialuri da ekonomikuri movlenebis
modelirebasa da prognozirebaSi gamoyenebadi statistikuri meTodebis
aucilebloba da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika Cven ganvixileT wina
leqciebze, amjerad SevCerdeT eqspertuli Sefasebebis meTodebze.
eqspertuli Sefasebebis meTodi. P
adamianis gonebas jer kidev Seswevs unari metoqeoba gauwios kompiuters,
da Tu ara azrovnebis siswrafeSi, mravali asociaciuri kavSiris qonaSi
da intuiciuri gadawyvetilebis miRebis SesaZleblobaSi. es iZleva
249
specialistebis codnis, gamocdilebisa da intuiciis evristikuli
gamoyenebiT, informaciis eqspertuli gziT miRebis saSualebas. xolo
eqspertuli gziT miRebuli Sefasebebis specialuri maTematikuri
xerxebiT damuSaveba zrdis maT saimedoobas da sizustes. eqspertuli
Sefasebebi ara imdenad da ara mxolod informaciis miRebis
instrumentia, ramdenadac Rrma analizisa da prognozis iaraRi.
eqspertuli kvlevis arsi mdgomareobs Sesaswavl problemaSi
kompetentur, damoukidebel, specialistTa jgufebis SerCevasa da
formirebaSi. isini gamoTqvamen TavianT SeTanxmebul Sexedulebebs da es
ganixileba rogorc eqpertuli Sefaseba.
eqspertul Sefasebad iwodeba romelime movlenaze da procesze
kompetenturi specialistebis jgufis mier gamoTqmuli Sexedulebebis
saSualo an modaluri daxasiaTeba, maTi Sexedulebebis SeTanxmebis an
daaxloebis uzrunvelyofis pirobiT.
eqspertuli Sefasebebi SeiZleba iyos raodenobrivi (warmoadgendes
absolutur, SefardebiT an saSualo sidideebs) da xarisxobrivi. pirvel
SemTxvevaSi eqspertiza efuZneba statistikuri da ekonometrikuli
meTodebis gamoyenebas, xolo meoreSi _ kvlevis sagnis codnas da
xelovnebasTan miaxloebul gamocdilebasa da intuicias damyarebul
evristikul procedurebs.
ganvixiloT iseTi cnobili eqspertuli meTodebi, rogoricaa delfis
meTodi, gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis) meTodi da sineqtikis meTodi.
`delfis meTodi~ _ saxelwodeba momdinareobs Zveli berZnuli qalaqi
delfosagan, sadac arsebobda misanTa, winaswarmetyvelTa uZvelesi
centri. es meTodi SemuSavebulia aSS-is kvleviTi korporacia `rend~-is
mier. misi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs: dgeba mecnierulad dasabuTebuli
kiTxvarebi, romelsac eqspertTa jgufi avsebs anonimurad. miRebuli
Sefaseba muSavdeba statistikurad. pasuxebis saSualo mniSvneloba
iTvleba eqspertul Sefasebad.
250
miRebul SefasebaTa saimedooba mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli
eqspertebis sworad SerCevaze, maT kvalifikaciaze, erudiciasa da
Sesaswavli sakiTxebis Sesaxeb maT informirebulobaze. eqspertebis mier
sagnis codna da analizuri SesaZleblobebi mowmdeba testirebis gziT.
Sefasebis sizuste, agreTve damokidebulia kvlevis Sedegebis
statistikuri damuSavebis doneze. iqmneba samuSao jgufi, romelic
SeimuSavebs amocanaTa kompleqss (miznebis xis proeqti), romelic
daismeba eqspertebis winaSe, gamoiyeneba logikuri dasabuTebis meTodi,
igeba hipoTezebi kvlevis Sedegebis Sesaxeb. amis safuZvelze muSavdeba
anketa/kiTxvari.
pirvel etapze xdeba eqspertTa warmomadgenlobiTi jgufis formireba.
eqspertTa SemadgenlobaSi SeyavT sxvadasxva profilis specialistebi
dawyebuli viwro specialistebidan da damTavrebuli enciklopedistebiT.
moTxovna erTia: eqsperti unda icnobdes problemas da gaaCndes masze
sakuTari Sexeduleba. eqspertTa raodenoba unda iyos optimaluri.
jgufis gacilebiT didi raodenoba gaaZnelebs monacemebis damuSavebas,
gaaZlierebs azrebis gafantvas da gaadidebs kvlevis Rirebulebas, xolo
eqspertebis zedmetad mcire jgufi adidebs individualur SefasebaTa
gavlenas da SemTxveviTi Secdomebis daSvebis albaTobas. saWiroa,
gonivruli sakmarisobis principis gamoyeneba, romlis Tanaxmadac
eqspertebis raodenobis erTi erTeuliT gadideba (N+1) praqtikulad ar
moaxdens gavlenas eqspertTa kiTxvebze gacemuli pasuxebis dispersiis
meryeobis doneze. kategoriulad agrZalulia eqspertTa SemadgenlobaSi
kvlevis SedegebiT piradad dainteresebuli pirebis Seyvana. es
ewinaaRmdegeba informaciis saimedoobisa da utyuarobis moTxovnebs.
kibernetika amtkicebs, rom eqspertTa ricxvi ar unda iyos gamosakvlevi
problemis ricxvze naklebi. iTvleba rom eqspertTa ricxvi rogorc wesi
SeiZleba varirebdes 15-dan 50-mde.
251
unda iqnes miRebuli eqspertTa kompetenturobis Sefaseba. SemuSavdeba
testi da masze pasuxebis safuZvelze TiToeul eqsperts mieniWeba
kompententurobis qula ).( 1b
eqspertTa kompetenturobis ganzogadebuli daxasiaTeba gamoisaxeba
saSualo sididiT:
B = ,n
bn
i
i
sadac
B _ aris eqspertTa jgufis kompententurobis saSualo bali
(qula);
ib _ i -uri eqspertis kompententurobis bali;
n _ eqspertTa ricxvi jgufSi.
kompententuroba fasdeba Sesaswavli problemis gadawyvetaSi
monawileobis donis an misi codnis kriteriumiT. unda iqnes
SemuSavebuli kompentenciis donis Sesatyvisi baluri Sefasebis skala.
zogjer SemoyavT, eqspertis imijis, samecniero da praqtikis samyaroSi
mis aRialeblobis, dakavebuli Tanamdebobas, samecniero wodebis an
samecniero xarisxis da a.S. Seatyvisi, eqspertis ,,mniSvnelovnobis” rangi.
Cveulebrisamebr, cdiloben rangebis jami miuaxlovon 100-s an 1-s, rac
amartivebs gaangariSebebs.
kompententurobis saSualo donis gasaangariSebeli formula miiRebs
Semdeg saxes:
B = ,
n
i
i
i
n
i
i
R
Rb
sadac iR _ eqspertis ,,mniSvnelovnobis” rangia.
252
damoukidebeli dakvirvebiT miRebuli kompententurobis maCvenebeli,
mizanSewonilia Seudardes sakuTar Tavze TviT eqspertebis mier
gakeTebul Sefasebebs. arsebobs monacemebi, romlebic miuTiTeben
pirdapiri kavSiris arsebobas saeqsperto Sefasebebebis sizustesa da
Sefasebis dones an eqapertTa kompentenciis TviTSefasebas Soris.
zogjer, gamokvlevis organizatorebs, kompententurobis analizis
Sesabamisad, eqspertebis Sexedulebebidan miRebul saSualo Sefasebis
gaangariSebaSi SemoyavT TiToeuli eqspertis ,,wonebi”. Aanu saerTo
Sefaseba aris saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikuli.
eqspertTa jgufis formirebis Semdeg maT eZlevaT davaleba winaswar
momzadebuli anketebis formiT. am dros unda iyos uzrunvelyofili
gamokiTxvis anonimuroba, romelic gamoricxavs eqspertebs Soris pirad
kontaqts.
gamokvlevis pirvel etapze eqspertebma ar unda icodnen erTmaneTis
pasuxebi. eqspertebis pasuxebis mixedviT igeba ganawilebis mwkrivi da
gamoiangariSeba misi ZiriTadi daxasiaTebebi: saSualo, moda, mediana da
kvartili.
rac ufro mcirea meryeoba, miT metia pasuxebis SeTanxmebuloba da,
maSasadame, pasuxebis saimedooba. eqspertebis gamokiTxva anonimuria,
calkeulma eqspertma ar icis, Tu mis garda kidev vin aris CarTuli am
samuSaoSi. aseve ucnobia danarCeni anketebis Sinaarsi. dgindeba pasuxebis
ranJirebuli ganawileba atributuli da raodenobrivi niSnebis mixedviT.
gamoiTvleba pasuxebis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi: saSualo sidideebi,
meryeobis maCveneblebi, mediana, kvartili (pirveli da mesame).
saSualo sidide gaiangariSeba, rogorc yvela Sefasebis jamis Sefardeba
eqspertebis saerTo ricxvTan:
x = ,n
xn
i
i
sadac iX _ i -uri eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebaa;
253
n _ eqspertTa ricxvi, romlebmac gaakeTes Sefaseba.
Tumca im SemTxvevebSi, rodisac SemoyavT kompententurobis rangi (wona),
gmoiyeneba saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis formula:
x = .
n
i
i
i
n
i
i
R
Rx
mediana )(Me _ varirebadi niSnis mniSvneloba (eqspertTa pasuxebis),
romelic modis ranJirebuli erTobliobis Sua mniSvnelobaze (mediana
yofs ganawilebis mwkrivs orad):
,21
0
m
m
m
f
Sf
kxMe
sadac 0x aris medianuri intervalis qveda zRvari;
k _ intervalis sidide;
mf _ medianuri intervalis sixSire;
1mS _ medianuris wina intervalebSi dagrovili sixSireebis jami.
mediana ganixileba rogorc eqspertTa jgufuri azri (Sexeduleba)
xolo kvartilSorisi daSoreba warmoadgens eqspertTa Sexedulebebis
SeTanxmebulobis maCvenebels.
kvartili (pirveli da mesame) _ variantebi, romlebic aSorebs marcxena
da marjvena mxridan erTobliobas ¼1/4-s:
;4
1
1
1
1
1
min1
Q
Q
Qm
Sm
kxQ
;4
1
3
3
3
1
min3
Q
Q
Qm
Sm
kxQ
sadac 1Q da 3Q aris Sesabamisad pirveli da mesame kvartili;
min1Qx _ pirveli (zeda) kvartilis intervalis minimaluri zRvari,
romelic gaiangariSeba dagrovili sixSirebis mixedviT;
254
min1Qx _ mesame (qveda) kvartilis intervalis minimaluri zRvari,
romelic gaiangariSeba dagrovili sixSirebis mixedviT;
k _ intervalis sidide;
min1S _ qveda kvarilis momcveli intervalis wina intervalebSi
dagrovili sixSire;
min13S _ igive zeda kvarilisaTvis.
kvartilebis sazRvrebs gareT moxvedrili pasuxebi, rogorc
eqstremaluri, ar miiReba mxedvelobaSi. xolo kvartilSoris manZilSi
moxvedrili pasuxebi iTvleba sakmarisad SeTanxmebulad. Tumca xdeba
maTi SeTanxmebulobis donis Semowmeba. amisaTvis gaiangariSeba pasuxebis
dispersia Semdegi formuliT:
22 x -
2)(x ,
e.i. pasuxebis mniSvnelobis kvadratebis saSualos minus pasuxebidan
saSualos kvadrati:
.
22
2
n
x
n
xii
rac ufro axloa eqspertebis pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis done
nulTan, miT ufro maRalia SeTanxmebuli Sefasebis reprezantatiuloba.
eqspertebis upirates gansjaTa (SexedulebaTa) gamovlenis Semdeg,
tardeba muSaoba maTi Tvalsazrisis dasaaxloveblad.
kvlevis meore etapze yvela eqsperts, romelTa Sefasebebic
kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebSia, acnoben im eqspertTa
Sexedulebebis dasabuTebuli gansxvavebebis mizezebs, romelTa
Sefasebebic gamovida kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebidan.
jgufSi darCenil TiToeul eqsperts eZleva ufleba Secvalos Tavisi
Sefaseba. amis Semdeg mTeli procedura meordeba axlidan, saWiroebis
SemTxvevaSi ramdenjerme, sanam Sefasebebi ar dauaxlovdeba erTmaneTs.
daaxloeba unda gagrZeldes manamde, sanam maTi saSualo saimedod
255
(misaRebad) ar iqneba miCneuli, SexedulebebSi arsebuli gansxvavebebi ki
_ minimumade dayvanili. momdevno turis win anketaSi SeiZleba, calkeuli
specialistis pasuxebis gaTvaliswinebiT, Setanili iqnes zogierTi
cvlileba. praqtikaSi xSirad es procedura tardeba gamartivebulad da
SexedulebaTa mcire gansxvavebis (gafantvis) SemTxvevaSi kmayofildebian
anketirebis erTi turiT.
eqspertis saimedobis donis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:
N
nR
sadac n aris mocemuli eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebebis saerTo
ricxvi;
NN _ swor SefasebaTa saerTo ricxvi.
aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi procedura meordeba ramdenjerme, sanam ar
miiRweva pasuxebis iseTi daaxloba, rodesac dispersia Seesatyviseba
mimimalur mniSvnelobas. mxolod amis Semdeg gaiangariSeba saSualo
sidide, romelic iTvleba eqspertul Sefasebad.
`gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis)~ meTodi warmoadgens ufro operatiul da
saimedo meTods. am meTodis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba
kvalificiuri specialistebis SerCeva, Sefasebebi da daskvnebi keTdeba
sxdomis mimdinareobisas. yvela damswre iyofa or jgufad. pirveli
jgufi koncentracias anu generacias ukeTebs ideebsa da Sefasebebs,
xolo meore aanalizebs maT. orive jgufs hyavs saerTo xelmZRvaneli.
ganxilvisas didi yuradReba eqceva azrTa Tavisufali gacvlis
waxalisebas, amasTan, ikrZaleba wamoyenebul ideaTa da daxasiaTebaTa
aqtualobis (faseulobis) mimarT kritikuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma.
xelmZRvaneli unda iyos miukerZoebeli da mas unda SeeZlos diskusiis
warmarTva saWiro mimarTulebiT. rac ufro metia variantebis raodenoba,
miT ufro maRalia im namdvilad Rirebuli ideebisa da daxasiaTebaTa
gamovlenis albaToba, romelzedac daTanxmdeba monawileTa umravlesoba.
256
praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba sineqtikis meTodi (gansxvavebuli da
erTmaneTTan aSkarad Seusabamo elementebis SeerTeba). am dros xdeba
saqmianobis (moRvaweobis) sxvadasxva sferodan specialistebis Sekreba.
calkeuli monawile TaTbirs aRiqvams rogorc Sejibrebas da
gansaxilvelad Seaqvs winaswar momzadebuli idea. miiReba is realuri
idea, romelsac mxars dauWers monawileTa umravlesoba.
modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso
organizaciebi
amJamad msoflioSi aTze meti modelirebisa da prognozirebis
saerTaSoriso organizacia funqcionirebs.
saerTaSoriso organizacia ,,futuribli”, daarsda 1960 wels
safrangeTSi, Stab-bina mdebareobs parizSi. gaaCnia mZlavri sainformacio
centri informaciuli banki _ 60 aTasamde baraTi, samecniero biblioTeka
_ 5 aTasi tomi). sakuTari ZalebiT amuSavebs sxvadsxva saxeobis
prognozebs, gamodis Suamavlis rolSi prognozirebis organizaciis
saqmeSi, asrulebs sakonsultacio firmis funqciebs, axorcielebs
specialistTa momzadebas da gadamzadebs, informaciis gacvlas
prognozirebis sxvadsxva kvleviT centrebs Soris. yovelTviurad
gamodis asociaciis Jurnali ,,futuribli-2000”, da yovel or TveSi
erTxel _ biuleteni ,,futurinformasioni”. am oganizaciis wevria 60-mde
qveyana da maTgan 6000 moqalaqe.
saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba ,,momavlis msoflio”. daarsda 1966 wels
voSingtonSi, masSi gaerTianebulia sxvadasxva qveynis 250-mde koleqtiuri
da 65 individualuri wevri, aqvs Tavisi ganyofilebebi aSS-is yvela
StatSi da agreTve msoflios 25-mde qveyanaSi. gaaCnia msxvili
sainformacio centri da mravali funqcionaluri seqcia, kerZod:
biznesis, ganaTlebis, mecnierebisa da teqnikis, marTvis, janmrTelobis
dacvis, socialuri, transportisa da kavSirgabmulobis, serTaSoriso
urTierTobaTa, demografiis, Sromis, saTbob-energetikuli da
sanedleulo resursebis, cxovrebis wesis, kvebis, perspeqtiuli
257
problemebis. sazogadoeba sakuTari ZalebiT amuSavebs sxvadasxva
saxeobis prognozebs, asrulebs Suamavlis rols prognozebis
damuSavebaze SekveTebis miRebaSi, axorcielebs kadrebis momzadebas da
gadamzadebas, asrulebs prognozirebis sakiTxebze sakonsultacio
firmis funqciebs, axorcielebs prognozuli informaciis gacvlas, or
TveSi erTxel gamoscems Jurnals ,,futuristi” da biuletens, garda
amisa, yoveli seqcia calke uSvebs biuletens.
saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba ,,2000 wlis kacobrioba” daarsda 1966
wels, misi Stab-bina mdebareobs briuselSi, yovelwliurad gamodis
,,msoflio problemebisa da kacobriobis potencialis weliwdleuli”.
modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso organizacia ,,romis
klubi” Seiqmna 1966 wels cnobili italieli mwerlisa da sazogado
moRvawis a. peCeis iniciativiT. misi wevria 40-mde qveyana, saqmianobis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa kacobriobis winaSe mdgomi globaluri
problemebis kvleva. 1972 wels gamoica romis klubis pirveli moxseneba
,,zrdis sazRvrebi”, romelic moamzada mkvlevarTa jgufma d. medouzis
xelmZRvanelobiT. am wignSi ganxilulma sakiTxebma da daskvnebma
sensacia gamoiwvia mTels msoflioSi. misi mTavari daskvna iyo
kacobriobis globaluri katastrofis gardauvaloba XXI saukunis Sua
xanebSi, kvlevis Sedegebi miRebuli iqna mravali sxvadasxva monacemebis
safuZvelze. sazogadoeba yovelwliurad atarebs konfernciebs da
seminarebs.
saerTaSoriso sociologiuri asociaciis momavlis kvlevis komiteti,
romelic Seiqmna 1970 wels, Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi da misi
saqmianoba ZiriTadad mimarTulia socialuri problemebis kvlevebze.
mecnierul-teqnikuri progresis Sedegebis Sedarebis saerTaSoriso
sazogadoeba Seiqmna 1972 wels, misi Stab-bina mdebareobs voSingtonSi.
igi yovelwliurad atarebs saerTaSoriso konfernciebs, sadac
ganixileba mecnierebisa da teqnikis ganviTarebis socialuri,
258
ekonomikuri, ekologiuri da sxva Sedegebi da xorcieldeba maTi
perspeqtiuli Sefaseba.
momavlis Seswavlis msoflio federacia, romelic Seiqmna 1970 wels
italiaSi, Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi. misi wevria 60-mde qveyana. igi
periodulad aqveynebs specialur biuletenebs.